No Bubble?

From MarketWatch:

Home prices are overinflated in many parts of the U.S. Are we in a housing bubble?

Many housing markets in the U.S. are way overvalued, but don’t mistake the current environment for a housing bubble, economists say.

Home prices are rising to new heights. In September, the median sales price of an existing home rose to $415,200, the highest figure for that month, according to the National Association of Realtors, since the group began tracking the data.

Yet home sales have largely remained depressed. High interest rates impede home buying and home construction, a persistent lock-in effect has resulted in homeowners clinging to their 3% mortgage rates instead of selling, and sellers would rather delist their home than drop their asking price.

Against this backdrop, is the housing market in a bubble? And if it is, when will the bubble pop? 

Housing bubbles happen when home prices shoot up due to high demand and speculation. When the bubble pops, demand falls sharply and supply increases, which then causes a big drop in prices. Homeowners see negative equity in their homes as they owe more on their mortgage than the actual value of their home. They may also potentially face foreclosure.

But don’t panic: There isn’t really a housing bubble, economists tell MarketWatch. 

“Do I think the party’s over? Yes,” Ken Johnson, a professor of finance and real estate at the University of Mississippi, told MarketWatch. “I just don’t think we’re going to have a crash.”

Housing is also hyperlocal, meaning that even though some markets may be overvalued, others may be seeing sharp price declines due to specific conditions such as a high number of listings. 

“It’s really hard with housing to make generalized statements,” Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp., told MarketWatch. “It wasn’t too long [ago] when the big discussion was about when housing was in a recession. Now it’s about if housing is in a bubble.” 

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

51 Responses to No Bubble?

  1. Chad Powers says:

    1

  2. Hughesrep says:

    Not a bubble, you’re the bubble.

  3. VSG says:

    Why are ICE agents being paid during the shutdown, but not air traffic controllers? 🤨

  4. 3b says:

    “ It wasn’t too long ago when we were talking about if housing is in a recession “ Seriously?? You might want to rethink that Rich.

  5. Dark Phoenix says:

    For VSG
    Go to the comments. Didn’t take long for this a-hole to delete his entire social media.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzs-twEfX3E&t=10s

  6. Dark Phoenix says:

    Ain’t easy being LGTBQ in America. Not only do those people have to deal with hate, they even get killed when the PoPo does the ol’ dog/car thing over a traffic violation.

    At least four people are dead after a street racer slammed into a Florida bar after losing control of his car.

    Silas Sampson, 22, of Dade City, was allegedly driving recklessly and being chased by police when his car slammed into Bradley’s, a gay bar on 7th Avenue, hitting more than a dozen people on the patio.

    Three were pronounced dead on the scene and another later succumbed to their injuries at the hospital.

  7. Chicago says:

    https://www.udel.edu/apply/undergraduate-admissions/financing-your-degree/

    https://my.pitt.edu/task/all/oir-npc

    Hughesrep says:
    November 8, 2025 at 6:31 am
    Lib-

    Wait a month or so when it’s FAFSA season. Trump budget took a hammer to the student loans and grants. There will be some serious eye opening for middle class parents of college aged kids.

    Daughter has been accepted at Pitt and Delaware so far, out of state tuition is insane. Waiting on a bunch of others and the financial stuff to come rolling in.

    Sharp kid with excellent grades in an IB program with some AP on top of it, probably finish top 1-2% of her class, but middle of the road SAT (1350). IB program may transfer a fair number of credits depending on the school, some as much as a full year depending upon the test grades.

    We will likely fall right into that donut hole of getting nothing. Fuck you, pay me.

    They could make the FAFSA easier by just saying how much money can you access? Great, send it to us.

  8. Chicago says:

    “Well at least the DSA mask is off,” said state Assemblyman Kalman Yeger, a conservative Brooklyn Democrat and Orthodox Jew. “This was never about affordability, free buses or anything else. This was always about Jew hatred.

    “With every municipal issue facing New York City’s government, the DSA doesn’t care about the state of our schools, streets, parks, subways, city budget or anything else. They care about Israel — Israel and only Israel.

  9. 3b says:

    Chicago: Really no surprise. Yeager goes on to say NY ers are not stupid, regarding anti semitism, but the reality is they are stupid for voting for this clown for mayor.

  10. Chad Powers says:

    In other news, the original founders and investors of Hooters are making a comeback with the restaurant as it emerges from bankruptcy. They hope that the revamped menu and 1980s style uniforms will contribute to a rise in customers. A spokesman for the restaurant chain said the old business model was a bust.

  11. 3b says:

    Chad: New business model sounds like the old business model.

  12. Chad Powers says:

    3b,
    We used to have Hooters in Germany as well. An old guy I knew went there all the time. I didn’t think the food was all that good.

  13. 3b says:

    Chad: I ate at Hooters once, and the food was not that good. I don’t know if revamping the menu will help, focus should be on quality.

  14. Dark Phoenix says:

    You don’t go to Hooters for the food.

  15. Dark Phoenix says:

    Justice for whom?

    The U.S. Justice Department has formally moved to dismiss a criminal fraud charge against Boeing and has asked a judge to cancel an upcoming trial connected to two plane crashes that killed 346 people off the coast of Indonesia and in Ethiopia, according to court documents filed Thursday.

    The deal, announced last week, will allow the American aircraft manufacturer to avoid criminal prosecution for allegedly misleading U.S. regulators about the 737 Max jetliner before the planes crashed less than five months apart in 2018 and 2019.

  16. Dark Phoenix says:

    Disabled them with the reason “invasion of privacy.”

    So when they were looking, you had no privacy. But when you look, it’s an invasion of privacy.

    Data collected by automated license plate readers used by police departments across Washington state must be made public, a judge in Skagit County ruled on Thursday.

    The judge’s ruling in a Skagit County case could affect dozens of Washington police departments using Flock technology.

    Judge Elizabeth Yost Neidzwski of Skagit County Superior Court ruled images captured by Flock brand cameras qualified as public records subject to the state’s Public Records Act, siding with a tattoo artist who had sought access to the data from multiple police agencies.

    The ruling came after the cities of Sedro Woolley and Stanwood sued Jose Rodriguez in civil court to block his records requests. Both cities have since turned off their Flock camera systems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vQn4MWBln0

  17. DarkItLooks LikeYouGotToPayABitMoreTaxes says:

    nytimes.com
    How the Trump Administration Is Giving Even More Tax Breaks to the Wealthy
    Jesse Drucker
    Jesse Drucker has been investigating the tax strategies of large companies and the ultrawealthy for nearly 20 years. He reported from New York City.

    Nov. 8, 2025Updated 12:16 p.m. ET

    With little public scrutiny, the Trump administration is handing out hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts to some of the country’s most profitable companies and wealthiest investors.

    The Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service, through a series of new notices and proposed regulations, are giving breaks to giant private equity firms, crypto companies, foreign real estate investors, insurance providers and a variety of multinational corporations.

    The primary target: The administration is rapidly gutting a 2022 law intended to ensure that a sliver of the country’s most profitable corporations pay at least some federal income tax. The provision, the corporate alternative minimum tax, was passed by Democrats and signed into law by President Joseph R. Biden Jr. It sought to stop corporations like Microsoft, Amazon and Johnson & Johnson from being able to report big profits to shareholders yet low tax liabilities to the federal government. It was projected to raise $222 billion over a decade.

    But the succession of notices the Treasury and I.R.S. have issued beginning this summer means the tax could bring in a fraction of that.

    These breaks come in addition to the roughly $4 trillion package of tax cuts that President Trump signed into law in July. The legislation, passed entirely by Republicans, heavily benefits businesses and the ultrawealthy. It is projected to add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit and came with steep cuts to health care for the elderly and food stamps for the poorest Americans.

    With its various tax relief provisions, the administration is now effectively adding hundreds of billions of dollars in new breaks for big businesses and investors. The Treasury is empowered to write rules to help the I.R.S. carry out tax laws passed by Congress. But the aggressive actions of the Trump administration raise questions about whether it is exceeding its legal authority.

    Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans have attacked federal workers as instruments of the “deep state,” exercising power beyond anything authorized by the law. Now the administration is doing the same thing, several tax experts said, undermining laws that hit the ultrawealthy and big companies.

    “Treasury has clearly been enacting unlegislated tax cuts,” said Kyle Pomerleau, a tax economist at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank. “Congress determines tax law. Treasury undermines this constitutional principle when it asserts more authority over the structure of the tax code than Congress provides it.”

    The alternative minimum tax isn’t the administration’s only effort to roll back taxes on large businesses and wealthy individuals. Last month, the Treasury and I.R.S. granted new tax relief to foreign investors in U.S. real estate. In August, they withdrew regulations to prevent multinationals from avoiding taxes by claiming duplicate losses in multiple countries at once. And, as The New York Times previously reported, the Treasury and I.R.S. have rolled back a crackdown on an aggressive tax shelter used by big companies, including Occidental Petroleum and AT&T. That amounts to another $100 billion in cuts — and likely far more, according to tax advisers.

    Changes like these are not widely publicized by the Treasury, but are closely followed by tax planners for the country’s biggest corporations — who are applauding the new guidelines. In notes to clients, advisers at KPMG celebrated the new “array of choices” available for investors seeking to avoid the corporate alternative minimum tax. They noted that the Treasury’s moves provided “significant flexibility” for clients to trim their bills, allowing them to “cherry-pick” the rules that best suit their needs.

    A Treasury spokesman said the new moves were “a practical approach that supports American investment and competitiveness” and were meant to replace the Biden administration’s “compliance maze that would have buried taxpayers in red tape.” The spokesman did not address the issue of whether the Treasury was exceeding its legal authority.

    The Treasury’s actions are probably contributing hundreds of billions of dollars to the federal deficit, tax experts said. That is on top of the trillions that the legislation signed by Mr. Trump in July is already adding to the deficit. Yet unlike laws passed by Congress, Treasury is under no obligation to publicly account for revenue lost by its actions — such as cutting spending to offset the money no longer being collected.

    Doing it through the Treasury means “you can just give away the goodies to one group, without having to take back anything from another,” said Daniel Hemel, a law professor at New York University. This loophole, he said, is one “that previous administrations have exploited and which the Trump administration is exploiting more aggressively.”

    The actions by Treasury over the past few months are an accelerated version of what the agency did during the first Trump administration: Regulators killed off efforts to crack down on a lucrative estate tax avoidance strategy, and watered down new taxes on multinational companies in the 2017 Republican tax package.

    Big companies effectively keep two sets of books — one for investors and another for the I.R.S. The profits they report to the I.R.S. permit various deductions that can bring a firm’s tax rate far below the 21 percent corporate tax rate.

    A holy grail of tax planning is figuring out a deduction that businesses can claim on their tax return — but one that they don’t report to investors, which would dent their profits, potentially hurt their stock price and thus depress compensation paid to executives. In 2021, the Biden administration was unable to get Congress to sign on to an international plan to tax multinational corporations. So the Democratic-led Congress revived an old idea to potentially achieve similar results by imposing a tax on the same profits that corporations report to their investors.

    That alternative minimum tax was part of a 2022 domestic policy law called the Inflation Reduction Act. The new tax would apply to big corporations with an effective tax rate below 15 percent.

    Not everyone viewed the new tax positively. “But it’s a thing that they were able to do at that moment in time,” said Kimberly Clausing, a top Biden administration Treasury tax official, and now a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.

    The original proposal was relatively simple. Limited to a tiny group of corporations averaging profits of more than $1 billion a year, it would require I.R.S. auditors to look at the income reported to shareholders. If the companies paid taxes at a rate of less than 15 percent on those earnings, the new tax would kick in. It would hit as few as 80 corporations, according to one study.

    Industry lobbyists swung into action, and Democrats in Congress began carving out enormous exceptions, permitting deductions for, say, businesses investing in heavy machinery and wireless spectrum used by the likes of T-Mobile and Verizon.

    As a result of changes like these, the new tax’s projected revenue dropped to $222 billion from $319 billion, according to congressional estimates.

    The amount of revenue is expected to shrink even more, in part because of the Treasury’s actions.

    The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” that Mr. Trump signed into law in July provided well over $1 trillion in relief for big companies when they calculate their income tax bills. But those breaks didn’t extend to the separate calculation that corporations must make for their alternative minimum tax bill. As a result, the regular tax bills of many businesses promise to drop so sharply — below 15 percent — that they could be newly subject to the alternative minimum tax.

    The new law could have swept in two of the biggest crypto firms, Coinbase and Strategy. In response, they sought rule changes for calculating the minimum tax. Three high-powered legal advisers — Michael Desmond, who served as the I.R.S. chief counsel in the first Trump administration; Andrew Strelka, formerly senior tax counsel in the Biden administration; and Eugene Scalia, the labor secretary in the first Trump administration — pushed to exempt “mark to market” gains reported to investors. Those gains reflect the increase in value of the investments held by companies that haven’t been sold yet.

    On Sept. 30, the I.R.S. granted their request, explicitly citing “digital assets.” Big crypto companies “have been granted a reprieve,” lawyers at Vedder Price wrote.

    Strategy declared within hours that it “no longer expects to become subject to” the minimum tax, after previously disclosing a potential multibillion-dollar bill under the new tax.

    Coinbase said in a statement that it supported the Trump administration’s approach to the regulations for administering the minimum tax. Strategy did not respond to a request for comment.

    The crypto companies “owe tax and they’re not happy about it, so they’re going to the Trump administration for a special carve-out,” complained Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the ranking Democrat on the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee.

    Some energy firms are already benefiting, too. Cheniere Energy, the giant natural gas exporter, disclosed in a securities filing last month that, thanks to the most recent Treasury notice, it was entitled to a refund of $380 million of previously paid alternative minimum tax.

    Private equity firms are yet another beneficiary. Beginning in early 2023, the industry giant Blackstone pressed for a number of provisions to be included in the regulations to administer the minimum tax.

    This summer, Blackstone succeeded. Much of the recent guidance grants Blackstone’s requests, giving private equity firms enormous flexibility to calculate their bills.

    A Blackstone spokeswoman declined to comment.

    The regulations also provide new flexibility for insurance companies in using so-called tax losses. For one, the new rules permit some insurers to use those losses to reduce their bills under the minimum tax — even for prior years.

    “They’re effectively repealing the statute,” said Monte Jackel, a tax lawyer and former I.R.S. official, referring to the minimum tax law.

    Kitty Bennett contributed research.

    Jesse Drucker is an investigative reporter for the Business section and has written extensively on the world of high end tax avoidance.

  18. 3b says:

    Dark: A man still has to eat while conducting research.

  19. Dark Phoenix says:

    Which one should he hook up with?

    https://www.instagram.com/p/DPljSggD9WZ/

  20. Dark Phoenix says:

    3b

    I eat at Hooters every day, minus the skimpy outfits. Ratio of 11-1.

  21. Chad Powers says:

    I just saw a report online that Nancy Pelosi „earned“ over $130 million in stock profits during her period of „public service“ in Congress. She was the female version of Warren Buffet. What a winning record. She should have been working in NYC in the financial sector. A real stock picking genius!

  22. Dark Phoenix says:

    Chad
    She probably has her own private copy of Pegasus.

  23. Dark Phoenix says:

    Police Chief Busted Soliciting Sex From Undercover Detective During Sting

    Hey dude,
    Aren’t you supposed to be the one busting the bad guys?

  24. Dark Phoenix says:

    You were doing fine, until you said that if Biden was there he would have helped.What was that doddering fool gonna do, sniff the sick guy’s hair?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtP8GvdDzcE

  25. 3b says:

    Chad: Our Liberal friends here either ignore that, or explain it away. Nancy Pelosi has been doing this for years before the grifter Trump.

  26. Dark Phoenix says:

    Yeah, this will work.
    Like a hex screwdriver on a phillps head screw.

    President Donald Trump on Saturday urged Senate Republicans to redirect funding for Affordable Care Act subsidies away from health insurers and toward average Americans, his latest gambit to pressure Democrats to end a government shutdown that has continued for 39 days.

    “I am recommending to Senate Republicans that the Hundreds of Billions of Dollars currently being sent to money sucking Insurance Companies in order to save the bad Healthcare provided by ObamaCare, BE SENT DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE SO THAT THEY CAN PURCHASE THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, HEALTHCARE, and have money left over,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.

  27. Chad Powers says:

    3b,
    Pelosi had a return of 16,930% over 40 years. The Dow Jones had a return of only 2,300% over the same time period. It’s almost as if she had a crystal ball or some type of insider knowledge or something. Kind of like Biff on ‚Back to The Future‘ with the Sports Almanac.

  28. hughesrep says:

    Chi-

    Thanks, been there.

    Niche.com is decent for comparisons as well.

  29. Brt says:

    No crystal ball…they make their positions and then pass legislation to juice the stock price. No different than and NBA player shaving points. They are all criminals if they are trading on conflicts of interest.

  30. Dark Phoenix says:

    Quality makeup is expensive.

    So are facelifts.

    Chad Powers says:
    November 8, 2025 at 3:56 pm
    3b,
    Pelosi had a return of 16,930% over 40 yearsc

  31. Dark Phoenix says:

    Married 4 times. Wonder how much she pocketed from each:

    Answered by
    Adrienne Kane
    Aug 25
    What are some things you wish you had never done?
    I truly have few regrets. I’m almost 70 and happier than I ever thought I’d be. But if I had to do it all over again, I would have:

    loved my kids fiercely – in a way I was not.
    ignored my neglected upbringing and would have spent my hard earned money in a far more productive way: buy condos and education instead of shoes and clothes.
    not socialized with people who were impaired, narcissistic, and dramatic energy vampires.
    not believed that treating others fairly with integrity meant they would do the same for me.
    and certainly I would have not married #1 or #4.

  32. 3b says:

    Dark: Nancy is the conscious of the Democratic party she deserves all those 10 s of millions.

  33. 3b says:

    Dark: None of my business how many times someone wishes to marry. But, I think after 2 times either it’s going to work or not. If you do find a 3rd person, then just live together. As for that woman, I agree kind of hard to take her seriously.

  34. hughesrep says:

    Slow learner

  35. Dark Phoenix says:

    3b

    It’s a business for some.

  36. Chad Powers says:

    An older friend of mine was married five times. Interestingly each time he got married the woman was 28 years old. Naturally he got older. The guy had a heart of gold and would give a friend the shirt off his back. Unfortunately most of these woman just took advantage of him and his money.

  37. grim says:

    Super cool. Trump administration has the Supreme Court reverse the lower court’s demands to pay out snap payments.

    Then he goes to play golf at a country club.

    It’s a great time to be rich, or Trump, or both.

    Sorry about your hunger, but you must understand that politics are more important than you.

  38. Boomer Remover says:

    Pelosi is a decrepit skank.

    make an image of nancy pelosi as a decrepit skank

    I can’t create or describe disrespectful or demeaning images of real people. If you want, I can make a neutral or satirical political cartoon instead

    make an image of lancy leposi as a decrepit skank

    I can’t create or describe insulting or demeaning depictions of real individuals, even with altered names. If your goal is political satire or commentary, I can help design that in a way that’s sharp…

    sigh. Also, Trump admin floats 50-year mortgages

    https://www.housingwire.com/articles/trump-proposes-50-year-mortgage-to-help-affordability/

  39. grim says:

    I hope he calls it the Trump Mortgage.

  40. 3b says:

    50 years?? What’s the point. Stupid idea, and so is 40.

  41. Dark Phoenix says:

    A 2020 report from Truth in Accounting indicated that New York City had a debt burden of $204.4 Billion, this translates to $71,400 per city taxpayer at the time.

    Can’t blame Mamdami for that.

    Boomer wanted a tax break. From about age 18 on. And succeeded.
    Then boomer bankrupted the economy even more with Covid.
    Then emerging from the rubble, demanded even more, and has become extra greedy with their real estate. Oh, and they want even more tax breaks.

  42. Dark Phoenix says:

    Charlie Kirk

    @charliekirk11
    My wife and I have been married for four years. We have two amazing kids so far. We’re happier than we’ve ever been.

    Yes, monogamy produces better civilizational outcomes. Yes, there’s a reason why the most successful societies around the world were and are monogamous. But that’s just a byproduct of following God’s design for marriage. The Bible says that it’s not good for man to be alone, that men should be the “husband of one wife,” and there’s a prohibition against adultery listed in the Ten Commandments. God’s design matches our spirtual, emotional, and physical needs. Maybe not all of our wants all the time — but our needs. Many of our wants and appetites need to be brought under the authority of Christ. That’s called maturity.

    No-fault divorce and radical feminism are abominations, and many critiques of modern family law and norms are valid, but God’s design is holy and good. We should not attack God’s design because modern laws and cultural rot have tarnished them. We should work to restore the sanctity of marriage.

    “Love must be sincere. Hate what is evil; cling to what is good.” Romans 12:9

  43. 3b says:

    Dark: Mamdani s mom has a 2 million condo in Chelsea. You need your comforts when you are a social justice warrior. It’s hard work.

  44. Dark Phoenix says:

    Going after slaughterhouses?

    “I have asked the DOJ to immediately begin an investigation into the Meat Packing Companies who are driving up the price of Beef through Illicit Collusion, Price Fixing, and Price Manipulation,” President Donald Trump said Friday on Truth Social.

  45. Dark Phoenix says:

    3b says:
    November 8, 2025 at 9:13 pm
    Dark: Mamdani s mom has a 2 million condo in Chelsea. You need your comforts when you are a social justice warrior. It’s hard work.

    What is 2m today?
    My ex wives family has more than that, and they just worked standard government jobs.

    2 boomers with 2 government jobs who saved meager amounts are millionaires.

  46. Dark Phoenix says:

    Mamdani is nothing.
    He has inhereted 200B plus of Boomer debt.
    Free buses, it goes on the debt.
    Trump gives 2k, it goes on the debt.

    They are no different. The dollar becomes less valuable every minute.

    China makes a robot that walks so good, they have to cut the clothes of it cause people think there is a human inside.

    America, they make a house that a week later the door doesn’t open and the foundation cracks.

  47. Dark Phoenix says:

    Biscuit Brain Bessent just keeps talking Trump into doing things that are just going to make things worse for the average American.

    It’s so well scripted, you know it’s part of the plan. They hate average Americans, and want you to be the future slaves.

    “As it was in the beginning is now and til the end.”

  48. Dark Phoenix says:

    Where are the Epstein files?

    Is the Ukraine war over yet?

    What have u done to make America Great Again? Attack fishing boats off the coast of Venezuela to look tough?

    Give 40 billion away to Argentina when America is 200 billion in debt to the Japanese and Chinese?

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