Sounds Rosy

From the Realtors:

NAR Predicts Double-Digit Growth in Home Sales in 2026 With Prices Rising 4%

The U.S. housing market will finally turn the corner in 2026, with a double-digit increase in home sales supporting a 4% increase in home prices, according to new predictions from the National Association of Realtors®.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun forecasts sales volume for existing homes will rise 14% next year after three years of stagnation, and sees new-home sales rising 5%.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said on Friday at a NAR conference in Houston. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”

Yun believes that job growth will remain solid in 2026, with the economy adding 1.3 million jobs. That trend, along with ongoing shortages of available housing supply, will support 4% growth in home prices next year, he predicts.

The optimistic forecast follows three straight years of the lowest volume of home sales since 1995, after affordability concerns pushed many prospective homebuyers to the sidelines.

Despite his forecast for a 2026 rebound, Yun acknowledges that the housing market remains deeply uneven, with cash buyers and baby boomers who have substantial equity holding the advantage.

“The upper end of the market has been doing much better than the lower end,” Yun said. 

Sales in the $750,000 to $1 million price range have seen some of the largest gains in 2025, while inventory remains constrained at lower price points.

Meanwhile, first-time buyers face steep obstacles to saving up for a down payment, including high rent, student loan debt, and child care costs, says NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz.

“We have haves and have-nots,” she said. “First-time home buyers are really struggling to get in, while those who have housing equity are building credit.”

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

60 Responses to Sounds Rosy

  1. VSG says:

    There’s lots of hope in Lawrence Yun forecast

  2. grim says:

    Goldilocks.

  3. VSG says:

    Starter house in NJ

    “ Sales in the $750,000 to $1 million price range have seen some of the largest gains in 2025, while inventory remains constrained at lower price points.”

  4. 3b says:

    I think Yun is delusional. Layoffs accelerating,those that are still employed will be looking at little to no salary increases/ bonuses. Inflation is still high. Consumers are starting to have trouble servicing their debt, student loans etc . I just don’t see this rosy picture that Yun is expecting to see.

  5. Chicago says:

    Ten 409

  6. Boomer Remover says:

    Fukc that dunce Yun.

  7. RentL0rd says:

    Add higher healthcare premiums and deductibles. Higher insurance costs overall. The only thing that will be cheaper is Bitcoin.

  8. Dark Phoenix says:

    Yun is the economic equivalent of Portnoy.

    Both blowhards.

    Like I need some guy to tell me what good pizza is, or that he is so special, so godlike, that if he eats pizza and likes it the world should acknowledge him and bow to his feet.

    Yun has an agenda. His “forecasts” are the result of such, if you can find out his angle.

  9. Dark Phoenix says:

    RL

    Correct. Lose that health insurance, get sick, lose job, lose house, lose wife.

    Doesn’t take much to start the cascade.

    It’s all about schadenfreude and vultureculture in America.

  10. 3b says:

    Dark: Re your Portnoy comments, Lots of Americans can be pretty gullible. Its only good if some celebrity tells them its good.

  11. Libturd says:

    I like Portnoy. I generally agree with his pizza assessments. It’s the celebrity restaurants that make me laugh.

  12. Libturd says:

    The Trump Lie of the Day has to do with inflation. It’s clear it’s bad and getting worse. So much so that Trump is trying to stifle while not admitting it exists. Today he says inflation is in the sweet spot while Bessent claims immigrants are bringing diseased cattle with the them across the boarder, which is not true. Tariffs anyone?

  13. No One says:

    Libturd,
    Looks like grim’s opinion is prevailing on NICE.

  14. Juice Box says:

    3B – layoffs are par for the course these days. My wife just escaped another one. Her coworker of 10 years was let go. Right sizing, AI, or other whatever reason they don’t care even of there are record earnings. My place has quite of bit of churn lately too older folks with 10,15,20 years experience working at this company all let go. Move the jobs offshore we can hire ten for the price of one or heck we need the money saved to create an AI to replace everyone else.

    I have been to a few pitches lately some really slick AI that will make anyone that is a key whacker knowledge worker realize their days are numbered.

  15. 3b says:

    Juice: Yes, they are. And as you note the older people with the years in are the most vulnerable, as they have the high salaries. I am glad your wife dodged a bullet on layoffs, as well as yourself. People can claim it’s Trumps fault, and it is to some extent with his tariff chaos, but it is more than Trump. AI is a game changer, but corporate America needs to realize you get rid of thousands of jobs and functions replaced by AI , there won’t be enough people able to purchase your goods and services. To those that say go into the trades it will be safe, not in my opinion. If there are significantly less white collar jobs, then there will be less need for the services of carpenters, plumbers, and electricians. It is all inter related.

  16. Chicago says:

    3B:
    Mr. Farley told a podcast last week that he can’t find enough skilled mechanics to run his auto plants. Specifically, Ford can’t fill 5,000 mechanic jobs that pay $120,000 a year.

    “We are in trouble in our country. We are not talking about this enough,” Mr. Farley said. “We have over a million openings in critical jobs, emergency services, trucking, factory workers, plumbers, electricians and tradesmen.” He said Ford is struggling to hire mechanics at salaries that Ivy League grads might envy.

    “A bay with a lift and tools and no one to work in it—are you kidding me? Nope,” Mr. Farley lamented. “We do not have trade schools” in this country. He’s right to a large degree. Few high schools teach trades these days. Community colleges are mostly remedial high school education, and government worker-training programs have poor results.

  17. BRT says:

    Larry Summers out….another Harvard president in disgracce

  18. 3b says:

    Chicago: Thanks. Interesting article. It does not change my view long term that with AI eliminated white collar jobs, there will be less demand for the trades etc

  19. 3b says:

    BRT: I saw something in passing that Summers was seeking advice from Epstein on a woman he was trying to woo. That sounds pathetic.

  20. No One says:

    What a loser that Summers is. Running play by play with Epstein of how he’s hoping to get more deeply honeytrapped by a Chinese official’s daughter. He could at least keep it to himself, but instead used Epstein as his romantic advisor nearly till the day Epstein was arrested.
    https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/11/17/summers-epstein-wing-man-woman-described-as-mentee/

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You do what you want to do. I was simply making the point that you should be buying dip hard in crypto. You know this game is about volatility. Who cares about getting the exact bottom.

    If BTC is your thing….anything under a 1o0k at this point is free….or you can go about feeding your fears and that it’s all over. Black friday deals don’t come around often and this is one of them in crypto right now.

    Libturd says:
    November 17, 2025 at 6:08 pm
    Hey Pumps. Bitcoin is down to 92. You told me to buy at 98. It’s now back to April 21st in price. I should still be buying here. Right?

  22. Ex says:

    This one goes out to all the numbskulls:

    https://on.soundcloud.com/mNK5sjHhNPgq4pKAwe

  23. Libturd says:

    NoOne,

    I saw that, though I’m still not sure if I buy it. Perhaps the original CEO retiring adds to the validity of Grim’s thinking, but more likely, I think that RBC is manipulating the stock price to get in really low. We’ll see if they have the balls to reiterate their position or will they change their mind? Either way, looks like a bad call by me. Normally, I’d double down on a situation like this, but I see it more as a wait and see, with a probably lick your wounds scenario taking place. Thanks for pointing it out. I only own it in my investment club, so really, not much damage to me. But I hate when our club sucks and it’s my fault.

  24. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    Still not a call back. I am starting to do the math on my StuBQ business. I think there’s a lot of money to be made selling “real” barbeque in these parts, but I want to keep it simple. A very simple menu with very few options. Basically, no frills, with fair prices to drive volume. I can get all the meat for between $2-$5 a pound. Most people can’t even eat 1/2 a pound. How much does a roll or an ear of corn cost? 20 cents? I could sell a plate that has three chunky pork ribs, some mac, an ear of corn and some slaw at a food cost < $4. And it's all top notch (real cheese, fresh corn, etc.) Most places are charging $20 or so for that. I sell it for $12. Less than Chipotle. And it's quick and easy.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    She sounds drunk. Regardless, we always knew what the Obammy family was all about.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLOLQ0yj1xA

  26. 3b says:

    Lib: You are making me hungry. You need to add biscuits , and iced tea. You have the ambition and discipline to get this done.

  27. Fast Eddie says:

    The U.S. housing market will finally turn the corner in 2026, with a double-digit increase in home sales supporting a 4% increase in home prices, according to new predictions from the National Association of Realtors®.

    Housing is no longer a mere asset, it’s a luxury item.

  28. 3b says:

    Fast: And that can’t last in my opinion.

  29. Libturd says:

    3B,

    Real Brewed Iced Tea, 20 cents, maybe. A few cents more for some lemon and sugar. But no packets at my joint. There will be one of those plastic dispensers, like at the diner.

  30. Brt says:

    3b imagine being the president of Harvard and rich and still not being able to get a date. It must really suck being him.

  31. BRT says:

    Lib, go for it. I know someone that was in a similar boat. Did they make bank? Not really but it was the most fun they ever had.

  32. Libturd says:

    DJT in the tens! I wonder if it gets delisted?

    Trump Coin, just in the 7s but will be in the 6’s next week for sure.

  33. Libturd says:

    BRT,

    Exactly. Don’t need to make bank. Can definitely be done with four people total. I need to run the numbers. I’m really thinking about doing it.

  34. 3b says:

    Lib: Definitely the dispenser, give it the old school vibe. Red checkered table cloths.

  35. 3b says:

    BRT: Agreed, like I said pathetic, and so embarrassing too.

  36. Libturd says:

    Forget table cloths. Wooden picnic tables that can be hosed off at the end of the day. Table cloths need cleaning.

  37. Libturd says:

    I ate at one BBQ joint down south where the tables were all used wire spools. They just cut one side off. The chairs were tiny to fit underneath, but it was worth it.

    You can get these used for about $20 each. I’d get a piece of glass cut to fit on top and would use my router to dull any sharp edges.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/4UJBLiigxDbhLHEb6

  38. 3b says:

    Lib: You are right. Cleaning and replacing. I like the wire spools idea.

  39. Hughesrep says:

    Has to be better than Mighty Quinn’s on Rt 3. Lousy brisket, beans (pretty good), fries and a coke set me back $30 today. I knew what I was getting, but I haven’t fired up the smoker in months, sometimes you just need to scratch the itch and I was driving by. I guess someone has to pay for the remodel.

  40. Ex says:

    Trump Willing to Spend $2bn to Rename the Pentagon into ‘Department of War’

    Trump’s Pentagon name change could cost billions and reignites debate over militarism and budget priorities

  41. 3b says:

    427 to 1 vote in the House to release the Epstein files.

  42. 3b says:

    Former Mayor of Dumont and current Jersey City cop was arrested for sexual abuse of a minor in the kids home. He barely lost out in his run for NJ state assembly on Nov 4. He was active in the community, blah, blah, aren’t they all.

  43. No One says:

    BRT,
    Sommers could have plenty of dates with old, fat and ugly women that look similar to him. But he thought he’s the next Kissinger, with so much power that even young daughters of Chinese officials are drawn to his magnetism.

  44. No One says:

    Summers reminds me of seeing old fat ugly guys driving a Ferrari at 35mph. Hey baby hop in.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    Why do Kareem Jeffries take money from Epstein after being convicted in 2008 of soliciting prostitution from a minor and facing lawsuits from women who said they were victimized by him beginning when they were younger than 18? I’m sure Kareem would say, “Oh! I didn’t know!”

  46. Ex says:

    5:54 what’r you babbling about…!?

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Aren’t they all contaminated with lead and soaked in creosote?

    Libturd says:
    November 18, 2025 at 2:20 pm
    I ate at one BBQ joint down south where the tables were all used wire spools. They just cut one side off. The chairs were tiny to fit underneath, but it was worth it.

    You can get these used for about $20 each. I’d get a piece of glass cut to fit on top and would use my router to dull any sharp edges.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Fight with all the Chinese restaurants for the roadkill. Plenty down here in Monmouth for you. I’m sure the mob guys will happily hook you up with “meat” with no teeth, hands or fingerprints……

    Libturd says:
    November 18, 2025 at 12:57 pm
    Juice,

    Still not a call back. I am starting to do the math on my StuBQ business. I think there’s a lot of money to be made selling “real” barbeque in these parts, but I want to keep it simple. A very simple menu with very few options. Basically, no frills, with fair prices to drive volume. I can get all the meat for between $2-$5 a pound. Most people can’t even eat 1/2 a pound. How much does a roll or an ear of corn cost? 20 cents? I could sell a plate that has three chunky pork ribs, some mac, an ear of corn and some slaw at a food cost < $4. And it's all top notch (real cheese, fresh corn, etc.) Most places are charging $20 or so for that. I sell it for $12. Less than Chipotle. And it's quick and easy.

  49. Juice Box says:

    Epstein ran with the Democrats; there is no denying this, some are now caught up in the witch trial.

    Anyway lets seen what happens. Either way there will be at least 50 years of conspiracy theories that the DOJ destroyed any evidence against Trump.

    They haven’t but should ask Maureen Comey who was the prosecutor for Epstein and Maxwell. She is the daughter of former FBI Director James Comey. A congression supoena would suffice I am sure even though she is suing for wrongful termination from the DOJ.

  50. Libturd says:

    They are wooden cable spools. Not railroad ties. And the piece of glass I put on top of them will be a fine barrier. Heck, smoked food is carcinogenic already. What’s a little extra cancer? Though seriously, cables planned for export tend to be treated. Domestic, not.

  51. YaYa says:

    6:33 Once upon a time Trump hung out with Democrats…
    And apparently raped children. Go figure.

  52. Juice Box says:

    Lib – StuBQ

    Haven’t seen a decent Beef Rib place anywhere around here. Sure they take longer to smoke but it could give you perhaps that trendy edge needed to charge $30 a plate. The difference is really buying in bulk might be harder to source and cost more per pound for sure.

  53. JUice Box says:

    YaYa aka Ex – I have always maintained they should prosecute them all.

    Fact is in 2005 when the local cops raided Epstein’s Florida home, evidence was already missing. This was the local Police from Palm Beach Police Department. Computers were taken and wires left behind. They claim he was tipped off. They should raid Alan Dershowitz homes..He might even have that evidence to this day……

    The later raid years later in 2019 performed by the FBI? Well they had to cut open a safe…Is there videos and photos of the rich and powerful? FBI agents in 2019 said they found $70,000 in cash, 48 loose diamonds and other jewelry, and a passport from a “foreign country” with a picture of Epstein under another name in the safe and hard drives found in the safe.

    If they are going to release the files lets start with the passport and hard drives…..

  54. Libturd says:

    Juice,

    I make a really incredible smoked beef rib. It’s one of Restaurant Depot’s best cuts of beef as you can get the superior plate rib, though it will never be cheap as these are 2 pound ribs a bone or cost $15 when purchased in bulk. Honestly, these are better than your prime porterhouse or tomahawk taste-wise. And it’s a whole meal in one bone. Best of all, the rub is simply a combination of salt, pepper and granulated garlic because you want to let the beef speak for itself. So very cheap to make besides the cost of the meat. Cheap wood too as you always want to use hickory or mesquite with beef and those are powerful woods, so you don’t need much.

  55. Libturd says:

    Here you go. That’s 6 bones. I think I paid a little over $100.

    https://photos.app.goo.gl/9KLFUu5zNp2ejqQ1A

  56. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Community colleges are mostly remedial high school education, ”
    No that I will disagree with. Community colleges are the most affordable path to a reasonable career. Its not nursing, its more phlebotomist. You can have a nice career sitting in a LabCorp pulling samples all day.

    I have my kid struggling his way through CNC milling. When he gets it, he’ll be golden.

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