From Calculated Risk:
Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below 2022 Peak
It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers!
In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 78% above the bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 9.4% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 0.9% above the bubble peak.
People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $447,000 today adjusted for inflation (49% increase). That is why the second graph below is important – this shows “real” prices.
The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index.
…
The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).
In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 3.0% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022.
Sure does feel good to have purchased in mid-2011.
Timing is everything but often it is more lucky timing.
3
4
German Gary,
do you day drink?
Chad Powers says:
December 2, 2025 at 5:21 am
Timing is everything but often it is more lucky timing.
That chart makes 2005/2006 look like the warm up. 2026/2027 is going to be a horizontal line at worst. If energy prices drop some more and inflation sleeps, a steady climb resumes. Housing in our neck of the woods is a luxury, not just an asset.
Ten 411
NJ and You perfect together.
Jan 1 2026 higher gasoline and diesel taxes per gallon.
Gasoline: 49.1 cents per gallon (up from 44.9 cents).
Diesel Fuel: 56.1 cents per gallon (up from 51.9 cents).
All for the Transportation Trust Fund…
They already give NJ Transit $767 million a year out of that gasoline tax to keep the trains and buses running. It’s not really used for any kind of improvements. The debt service on the bonds annually is $1.5 billion alone.
I upgraded homes around 2010. But homes are about lifestyle spending rather than investments. Putting that money into stocks back then would have paid off much more. Now neither homes nor stocks are likely to appreciate much after inflation.maybe international stocks could do better.
Juice: All that money just to keep the crappy system running. Old broken down trains, ratty stations. Hoboken Terminal a landmark looks like crap. NY s MTA has problems of course , but their trains are better than NJ transit, and so are the stations. The MTA sells or leases their old stock to NJ Transit. NJ transit train system with train cars that say NY MTA. Pathetic. And fares will be going up 5 percent over the next 3 years on top of it all.
Fast: You are convinced prices will only continue to rise here, so seriously who is going to be able to afford these prices, and the property taxes? Job market not looking good especially for Gen Z starting out. Marriage and birth rates continue to decline. Where is this unending supply of people coming from to continue to pay these prices? Lots of old people in the NYC metro area, and their houses will be eventually coming on the market too. There could be big inflation in inventory down the road.
Mom, can we have Fast Eddie!
No, we have Fast Eddie at home.
At home: German Gary
This is a meme-format joke that plays on the “Mom, can we have X? — We have X at home” template.
How the joke works
“Fast Eddie” is presumably the desired, cooler, more exciting option.
Mom says: No, we have Fast Eddie at home meaning: we already have something at home that’s “basically the same,” so we’re not getting the real one.
“At home: German Gary.”
This is the off-brand, bootleg, or crappier substitute for Fast Eddie.
Thos NJT train windows that are so cloudy one can’t see anything other than the vague color of daylight should be a national disgrace! Instead, they are a badge of honor, worn proudly for being a high earner in NYC area.
It seems that NJ Transit, MTA are primarily run for the benefit of their employees, a political constituency, rather than customers.
Note that satisfaction of customers with Hong Kong’s Subway system and Japan’s passenger rail system is much higher, while being publicly traded companies answering to shareholders. Not perfect, also not perfectly free or unregulated, but still seem to be more interested in customer satisfaction than our state-run losers.
“Work in Jersey. Grow your career where opportunity—not salary and benefits—sets you apart.”
“Fast Eddie” is presumably the desired, cooler, more exciting option.
That’s what the chicks tell me. ;)
Many times over the years in the winter, the NJ Transit trains could only provide heat or light, not both. So keep the lights on and be cold, or sit in the dark and keep the heat on. Talk about a 3rd world transit system, but let’s make sure we get that tunnel built to NYC. Maybe Mikey can fix NJ Transit.
3b,
I said it yesterday too… will all the pod building and direction of rates, we’ll see what happens but at the worst, we go sideways on price for a while. Desire + demand = price point. The population here is not decreasing and the gravity of NYC is what it is. We went into the city over the weekend to Radio City and then dinner and the place never fails to dazzle and draw. It’s the epicenter of something… always and forever. Not my opinion, just the way it is. With that in mind, a CHC in a leafy suburb, a short ride from jobs and culture is going to sustain price. Priced out forever? If not, damn close. Maybe Susanne finally got it right.
The buses are also a crap shoot. Sometimes clean sometimes not. Handprints or face grease on the windows if someone fell asleep before you sat in that seat. The park and ride spaces are gone in Willowbrook by 730am. The ticket machines at Willowbrook take two or three tries sometimes to read the chip in your card.
End the boomer tax giveaways. Make them pay full nut for services like everyone else. They can afford their tax payments if they are able to go to Atlantic City and put money in the slots all day.
Take away their socialist gifts and plenty of housing will hit the market.
This is what happens when you don’t let Republican style free enterprise do it’s thing.
No one wants things cheap (btc), they like to pay more due to fear.
No one,
Who cares. Those employees spend every dollar…right back into the pockets of private sector owners. So what are you crying about? How many billionaires and growing? The rich are killing it go cry about that, but you won’t.
$BTC went as low as $83k yesterday and everyone was screaming ‘it’s so over’
it’s back at $90k today and everyone is screaming ‘we’re so back’
maybe we’re indeed so back
or maybe we’re still going to have some more pullbacks from here
the short-term price action doesn’t really matter IMO
what really matters is the fundamentals:
– ultra conservative, $11 trillion financial behemoth Vanguard just started allowing its clients to buy Bitcoin
– FED has ended QT and we’re now on a much faster track to QE
– we likely get another rate cut in a week’s time
– institutional participation in crypto is at record levels and there’s now almost unlimited avenues for them to participate
meanwhile BTC is trading 30% down from an ATH it made just two months ago
i understand being bearish a few weeks ago
but the R/R looks incredibly unfavorable to being bearish here IMO, regardless of what price does in the short term
Said same chit 12 years ago on this blog. How that work out?
People are making more money than you realize.
3b says:
December 2, 2025 at 9:02 am
Fast: You are convinced prices will only continue to rise here, so seriously who is going to be able to afford these prices, and the property taxes? Job market not looking good especially for Gen Z starting out. Marriage and birth rates continue to decline. Where is this unending supply of people coming from to continue to pay these prices? Lots of old people in the NYC metro area, and their houses will be eventually coming on the market too. There could be big inflation in inventory down the road.
Wait, how old are you? I always assumed you were a sort of 12-13? Are you older than that?
The Great Pumpkin says:
December 2, 2025 at 11:20 am
Said same chit 12 years ago on this blog. How that work out?
No One,
As a train fan I’ll say a few things.
The Bergen Line NJ Transit trains with MTA logo is because MTA pays NJ Transit to run trains past the border into Port Jarvis. If the Rocklanders had accepted trains on the new Cuomo bridge that would have stopped.
Up to Sandy NJ Transit had so many extra cars that they were leased out to other agencies. Remember, NJ Transit is the second largest transit service.
The reason for so many train cars is that NJ Transit is an amalgamation of 6 regional rail roads vs MTA 2 best well known NY Central and Penn RR. All operating different systems. The old Erie Lackawanna electric trains operated on different voltage than the Penn RR. That is why it took a long time to connect Manhattan direct service. All over 100 yrs old.
Remember, the overlying rule that you got to remember about you fellow Americans is that they are selfish asshole. So, the reason your train sucks, your road sucks is that they voted to keep it like that.
This is what I mean as our present moment.
Use Nixon as a general representation of our time.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cGJcQ_FW9TY
Comparing NJT with LIRR and Metro North
So many of the NY rights of way are arrow straight for MILES. The top speeds are dramatically higher, but most of all, are maintained for significant distances.
The other thing obviously is the throughput from the Hudson River tunnels.
I have now had the displeasure of standing at the Secaucus transfer station, with the supposed luxury of being able to take any train that shows up eastbound right into the city. And standing there watching the trains pile up on the arrival board while it’s obvious that everything is being held back for an Amtrak train is patent idiocy
“Remember, the overlying rule that you got to remember about you fellow Americans is that they are selfish asshole. So, the reason your train sucks, your road sucks is that they voted to keep it like that.”
Economics aside, a more or less homogenous population block, is why Europe works. The clean streets, the respect for others, shared responsibilities, etc.
Individualism is taken to a perversion here, and it is effectively every person for themselves under a flag of unity.
My own cognitive dissonance about immigration in the US versus immigration in my home country is an excellent example of this in action.
19 year old freshman just wants to go home for Thanksgiving to see her family, she gets deported to Honduras.
Former President of Honduras who’s serving 45 years in prison for drug trafficking?
He gets a full presidential pardon.
Both are Honduran. Only one is a criminal.
Choo choo: Thamks for the NJ Transit information. I did not know a lot of what you noted. I will say as far as your comment about NJ Transit having had a lot of extra cares before Sandy, well I am skeptical about that. I have been reading the system for years, and old crappy cars have been the norm. They did add some new trains at one point, made in Japan , but no one bothered taking any measurements, as the seats and the spacing of the seats were too small. This was away from some Americans being overweight. There were four seaters where only two could sit, as your legs would be literally pressed up against the person in front of you.
Yeah, you did. But, at some point it has to give, much different environment now than a decade plus ago.
Fast: You may be right, but I don t see it. There is just too much going on now, and too much that has changed over the last 10 to 15 years to keep this thing going. I know quite a few millennials, good jobs both working and houses are out of the question right now, and then the property taxes , and the student loans, and the cost of child care. Then of course the massive credit card outstanding and car loans too.
Job prospects for Gen Z are grim, with the arrival of AI, and that is getting worse, as layers of middle management are being hollowed out, no room for advancement. The Fed in my view did a lot to destroy the housing market keeping rates too low, too long, but that’s another discussion. And as I note there will be a coming avalanche of houses on the market from baby boomers.
3b,
I do agree with you that real estate will top. Why? Demographics. Population growth…
Now here is the thing: real estate will hyper-intensify at the local level. Beach property, desirable towns, good locations, etc. will still increase in value because they are scarce. Other real estate is dead.
I think that’s the new frontier with AI. It will make the basics abundant and practically free, but scarce items will still have massive value.
Think of it like this. The avg poor person doesn’t realize they live better than a king from 125 years ago. They have air conditioning/heat, access to any type of meat or fruit on a daily basis, etc….they are living like kings, but don’t even realize it. Perspective is everything….
3B,
I rode NJ Transit and the PATH and the MTA subway for nearly thirty years. In the mid 90’s, NJTransit was ranked in the top 5 transit agencies in the country. Soon after, it became a patronage pit, was mismanaged terribly and was terribly underfunded. To this day, the blue collars from the ticket punchers to the track maintenance workers all the way up to the engineers are at war with the administrators since they continue to be clueless patronage hires who have wrecked the once proud railroad. Besides the Sandy flooded engines and coaches debacle, the next biggest crisis which occurred involved massive disability fraud. For multiple years, there was a doctor who put like 20% of the NJ Transit rail workforce on disability in return for being on the take. He only got caught because he got too greedy. These kinds of shenanigans continue to this day. Just google NJ Transit and fraud and you will find a list of employees who sold fake tickets, stole from ticket vending machines, sold fake insurance policies to family members, gave contracts to vendors that they previously sued, etc. It is the most poorly run state agency. The bus system, I think the second largest in the country, and combined with rail, the third largest public rail system in the US. The bus system is run almost entirely separate from the rail and though it has it’s own list of problems, mainly stemming from antiquated buses, it’s not the worst in the country, shit show that rail is. Want to really laugh, go look at the River Light Rail Line for a great example of a waste of taxpayer dollars. These lightly used and huge money losers get built when state leadership appoints friends and family to leadership positions they have no place being.
Read this to understand the disaster NJ Transit is. And this is the polished turd.
https://pub.njleg.state.nj.us/publications/budget/governors-budget/2026/njt_response_2026.pdf
Lib: I do remember when NJ Transit was well run. Delays were rare, the trains were clean. And the cost was quite reasonable. That as you note was years ago. We are supposed to be a wealthy, educated state, and yet our transit system is failing apart, our infrastructure is a joke. For example the entrance to Rt 4 from the GWB, has a steer light that has not worked in decades. There is a lane widening and bridge replacement project on Rt 4 in Englewood that has been ongoing since before Covid. The highways are dirty. The list goes on. What is the point of all these high taxes and constant fare increases. And then some of us pat ourselves on the back claiming our state is better than so many others.
President Trump will be joined by Dell Technologies (DELL) founder Michael Dell on Tuesday afternoon at the White House to unveil a $6.25 billion gift from the businessman to supplement new savings accounts for young children passed into law earlier this year.
Dell’s donation translates to $250 in starter money for about 25 million “Trump accounts” for families in low- and middle-income areas. This private money will be in addition to $1,000 in federal dollars authorized in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act for newborn children as part of an overall program that is set to begin accepting contributions next July.
This will be for newborns for the next three years. As more philanthropists come aboard, the years will expand. You can contribute to a child’s account up to $5,000 per year and employees will be able to contribute $2,500 per year.
This is awesome! There’s no other way to put it. Public and private entities used to work together to build dams and the Interstate System and infrastructure, etc. This is a rare moment of working together.
Lol
“Binance leverage flush in October → 32% air pocket bitcoin drawdown → MicroStrategy de-index FUD → Fed kills QT the next day → Vanguard green-lights spot BTC/ETH for 50M boomer IRAs! JPM and goldman get into BTC Structred note game!
If this isn’t the most obvious “wash the tourists, onboard the institutions” sequence I’ve seen since ‘08 GFCs, I need new glasses”
There is an interesting trend in Germany now of fining apartment or house owners for leaving a property vacant and not renting it out. This is due to a severe housing shortage in Germany and throughout the EU. In Germany you are required by law to register in your city when you move into a place. You also have to register if your property is occupied or empty, so it is very easy for the authorities to track this data. In Munich the fine can be up to 200,000€! I attached an english language article so VSG can follow the conversation.
https://munchen.news/en/society/owners-of-vacant-apartments-in-munich-now-face-fines-of-up-to-e200000/
Michael Dell only has 142 billion left after that generous purchase of favor. And I’m sure that $250 per low income family will do little to help the same families Trump cut free breakfasts from and then SNAP payments, not to mention all of the inflation these tariffs are costing. But I guess it’s better than sending it to South America with the other 20 billion.
So amazing this president. Look for Dell to get a huge new government project.
Speaking of trains, I heard someone pulled a train on Melania on Epstein Island.
Who owns your house in Germany, you or the government?
How long are you allowed to leave your house before you are fined?
Two week vacation ok, six month trip isn’t?
A movie I recently watched, “Inglorious Basterds” is starting to make more sense.
Ex, where’d you hear this from, your pot dealer or your wife’s boyfriend?
Might repost tomorrow for more discussion, Tarantino’s top 20 films since 2000
I think a couple of them are great, a few more are good, some I haven’t seen.
His #4 Dunkirk is probably my favorite on his list. Moneyball also excellent.
I’ll try watching Black Hawk Down and Zodiac and see what I think.
https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2025/12/2/tarantino
Black Hawk Down
Toy Story 3
Lost in Translation
Dunkirk
There Will Be Blood
Zodiac
Unstoppable
Mad Max: Fury Road
Shaun of the Dead
Midnight in Paris
Battle Royale
Big Bad Wolves
Jackass: The Movie
The School of Rock
The Passion of the Christ
The Devil’s Rejects
Chocolate
Moneyball
Cabin Fever
West Side Story
So early….I don’t make the rules.
“JUST IN: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says “tokenization today is roughly where the internet was in 1996.””
No One,
There are a lot of strange laws and rules here for sure. You can leave your house or apartment and not de-register with the city. That is what we did when we went to Hawaii for two years. So the city didn‘t know that our house was actually empty.
Our town has 20,000 residents and the mayor made a social media post earlier this year that due to the housing shortage she was going to try and force people to rent out their empty properties. Only 4% of the dwellings in town are empty, hardly a high rate. Things aren‘t so simple though. There is a 1950s era house down the street that has been empty for 15 years. The parents died and the children don‘t want to sell it. It would also require extensive and costly renovation to be rented out. Some of these older houses don‘t even have a regular heating unit installed. Our house next door has a gas heater, but it also has the original system. This consists of a tiled oven in the living room. Inside the tiled section is basically a stove that can burn wood or coal and hot air is piped into the rooms. There are a few old houses in our area that haven‘t been modernized and only have this system.
If the city gives us any problems with the house we own next door then I‘ll go and register as living there, and my wife will be registered at our current house. That way the house won‘t be empty.
“Black Hawk Down” was a great movie.
Let’s go!!
“President Trump effectively announces that Kevin Hassett will be the next Fed Chair.
2026 is going to be a wild year.”
This is why I think Billionaires should stop doing this charitable stuff.
A guy is going put money into savings accounts for millions of babies, and all Libturd and co will do is complain about it anyway. $250 compounded over 17 years might be worth something. It might even teach poor kids the power of saving and compounding, worth more in the long run to them than its weight in Flaming Hot Cheetos and Grape Drink.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UayQTu2kH-U
punkin,
Gimme your DOW prediction for 2026.
No One,
Brilliant. lol.
But yes, $250 on top of the initial $1,000 with the option to add more over the course of 17 years. If the $1,250 was put into an S&p 500 index fund without any addition, it would equal $7,665 based on historical performance. That’s $7,665 more than the kid would ever have otherwise. Go ahead Dems, tell me it’s rac1st, abusive, a demonstration of privilege and humiliation, etc.
Dell wants a seat on the AI rocket, the tax write off on that $6 billion is a nice add for him too. If I got it right, he gets the 37% deduction by doing it this year, vs. 35% next year. That’s an extra $120m write off for him.
Mackensie Scott has given away $19 billion of Jeff’s money already.
Why are you not celebrating her?
Mad Max: Fury Road
Still boggles my mind that this one ranks so highly, there was a pretty controversial rotten tomatoes list from a few years back that had it in the top 10 of all time.
Look, it’s a fun movie, it’s well done, but top 10? Even top 50? C’mon. There is no universe where it should be rated higher than the original Mad Max.
And while I generally love Tarantino, I abhor Kill Bill, god they were awful.
Mark my words, the moment that 1,250 can be withdrawn, even with a 50% penalty, it will be withdrawn. The Trump show rolls on. From the inauguration to the new ballroom, it’s all just another method of purchasing favor and should all be illegal due to the immorality of it. But Trump knows no wrong. Just a peak at his pardons or his exploding of drug boats without due process proves this. We used to be a country of laws. Now war crimes are now acceptable. And yes, those boats did carry drugs, and poor fisherman willing to do anything to escape the hell in their countries. In the civilized path, we would cease the boat, destroy the drugs and return the fisherman to their home to be prosecuted there. But this is the lawless wild, wild America. Where immorality rues the day. I hate what this country has become. We are no better than our communist or imperial friends. Accepting a plane from a country of slave holders that execute anyone who speaks for freedom is now what passes for an Allie. And for what? A fuel-guzzling plane they couldn’t sell and another golf course for the wealthy. I watched that Dubai Open recently. Nary a fan on the course. Pretty much a tournament for the Emir to watch from his golden throne in the clubhouse. This is Trump’s America.
Mackensie Scott has given away $19 billion of Jeff’s money already.
Bravo for Mackensie! I hope more do more!
This is Trump’s America.
Thank God!
I’m honestly torn, because it’s due for a correction that might never happen. This is a goldie locks era for investors that doesn’t come around often. Prob the best opportunity for investors since late 1800s oil revolution. Crazy change at a rapid pace is a recipe for insane returns.
So I do believe there will be a healthy correction, and then we continue upwards to new ATH’s. Correction might happen now, and see that money rotate into crypto for the coming months. We will see. All I know, this is a special cycle.
Just remember….this stock market growth was happening with tariffs and QT since 2022. Massive headwinds ; it chewed it up and spit it out. Strength…
White Trash Eddie says:
December 2, 2025 at 6:10 pm
punkin,
Gimme your DOW prediction for 2026.
My Nasdaq prediction is that at some point it will fall below 20K and at that point, you better start reloading what you should have sold already. If the recession and tariff inflation hit simultaneously. You’ll see 18,200. If it is accompanied by massive AI induced job losses, than we’ll bottom at 16K, which is where you mortgage your home to get back in.
If this isn’t all a show, then I can see another 15 to 20% gain easy.
We haven’t seen the crypto crash yet. It will half again at some point soon. Too much funny business and still, no one using it for anything but currency laundering.