Predictions 2026!

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Recession / Economic

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Commodities

Inflation

Mortgage Rates

Geopolitics

Whatever

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56 Responses to Predictions 2026!

  1. Ex says:

    Trump dies.

  2. grim says:

    Wow, there were some SOLID predictions in the ’25 post.

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    Recession/economic – GDP @ 2.5% avg, AI drives growth, UE in the 4.5% range.
    Real Estate – Insulated in coastal cities, every place else is like a yoyo.
    Stocks – DOW at 55K a year from now.
    Commodities – Up and down, by 2026 year end, same as what we see now.
    Inflation – 2.2%
    Mortgage rates – 5.5%
    Geopolitics – Rinse and repeat, once again, the USA needs to be the referee.
    Whatever – Media and democrats push the narrative that the sky is falling and the slower muppets once give the House to Dems. Trump impeached seven more times.

  4. 3b says:

    Fast: Democrats are hinting that if they win the House, they will go for Impeachment. That is all they have.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    3b – Of course. What else can they offer? He’s a threat to democracy? Women are bleeding to death? They’re arresting brown children?

    LOL.

  6. Juice Box says:

    From my prediction last year.

    “How do we fix the democratic party? Who is going to lead the party? Who is the most effective messenger now? What is the new message?”

    Jasmine Crockett for Senate is not new leadership.

    Same prediction for 2026.

  7. 3b says:

    Juice: The Democratic party is not fixable. It has been taken over by the incompetent, the malcontents, the people who believe simply because they breathe they are qualified for office. There is also a strain of virulent anti- Americanism too in the party and a a huge focus on identity politics Chuck Schumer is old and tired, and all the noise is form the radical left of the party,a bunch of morons. That said there is no one out there to fix the Republican party either.

  8. Libturd says:

    My ears and nose will grow and my balls will continue their journey to the watery surface of the bowl. And maybe, just maybe, I’ll find a job with full healthcare coverage.

  9. Libturd says:

    At the suggestion of many recruiters, I plan to remove all signs of my age from my resume. During the interview, I will send my son in my place.

  10. 3b says:

    Whatever ones view’s are on the Israeli/Palestinian issue, the Left pro-Palestinian side continues their descent into madness and delusion, with their new line that Jesus was a Palestinian. You don t like the history, now you can just change it and say it was otherwise and the followers on the Left just blindly follow along, and these are supposed to be the so called educated ones.

  11. 3b says:

    Lib: I find this hard to believe, but supposedly some parents come with their kids on job interviews, so why not send your Son in your place, start another trend.

  12. White Trash Eddie says:

    You don t like the history, now you can just change it and say it was otherwise and the followers on the Left just blindly follow along…

    Obammy walked on water and muppets were getting chills up their legs. But his wife was p1ssed though because she couldn’t get her hair wet and needed to straighten it for white people.

  13. 3b says:

    Good opinion piece in today’s WSJ about the the decline of the US over the last 25 years. In line with what I believe , he says it started 25 years ago with the young Bush. He hits a lot of the topics we have been discussing here for years.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Lib – yes the ageism sucks in the job search.

    We just hired a US candidate. There were several well qualified 50 something candidates that were local too and could actually show up to the office to work. However the boss picked a younger female candidate who will be 100% remote and I am almost certain will not work out. That candidate has bounced around every two years like clockwork to other companies, no promotions along the way either. I think she just wants the steady paycheck and as soon as real hard work starts may head for the hills. What makes me think this? 30 something with a nose ring for starters, and from what I can tell probably a female Peter Pan who shrugs off commitments of any kind. She scrubbed her social media but I found her, but as the corporate rules state #1 the Boss is always right and #2 refer to #1 is the boss is wrong.

  15. Juice Box says:

    3B – Jesus was a Roman subject within the empire, was not even a citizen as that was reserved for only Italian born.

    Have to remember crucifixion was for subjects and slaves. His Apostle Paul, who was a Roman citizen was executed by beheading which was considered a more “dignified” death for a citizen.

  16. 3b says:

    Juice: Sorry, that is all wrong . Jesus was a Palestinian and he lived in the country of Palestine.It might have been ruled by the Romans but it was Palestine.

  17. 3b says:

    The old men in bed sheets in Iran are easing up on their people, because of ongoing protests by students and others against the dismal economic conditions. Women in the streets of Tehran are ditching the Hijab, and music is blaring in the cafes while you people dance. This is as it should be.

  18. Juice Box says:

    3b – Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians, Jordanians, and Jews all share a common background genetics going back thousands of years. They are all cousins. However they were also all ruled over those thousands of years by the Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Islamic Caliphates, Mamluks, Ottomans, and even the British empire.

    Nowhere really back in time were they really ever anything but serfs, slaves and subjects to some other greater power until late into the 20th century. These cousins will probably continue to fight each other until the end of time. That is my prediction.

  19. By2026TheOrangeTurdMess WillSmellWorseThanFatEddiesBathroomAfter20WhiteCastles says:

    I’ll take a 66% victory lap. Only one out is a Tienanmen big event, but ICE behavior has can count 4% for a total of 70% correct – I got a C for 2025.

    For 2026+. I expect a continuation of the maelstrom, with the Tienanmen event coming closer.

    The known unknowns are:
    -What the Global Financial Markets going to do to USD and US government debt if King Orange Pinocchio takes control of the Federal Reserve?.
    -Are there going to be any unexpected events that change that would include the above financial market statements and/or 1)The slow sell out of Ukraine? 2)An event in Taiwan, North Korea,greater South Asia, Venezuela or greater Latin America, Iran, Israel or greater Middle East that would be of such magnitude that would force boots on the ground and would be the final nail in the MAGA America 1st vs American Empire face saving action. A situation that Pinocchio will have to act against massive opposition from MAGA or if he does not act it defacto admits the end of USA international involvement, like the Suez Canal was for post WW2 British and French empires.

    By2026TheOrangeTurdMess WillSmellWorseThanFatEddiesBathroomAfter20WhiteCastles says:
    December 28, 2024 at 10:02 am

    Worse than anybody expects. 2016 OrangeTurd was an unknown known. 2024 he’s a known unknown. Anybody that will deal with him across the table will have consulting psychiatrist/psychologist assessing him on moves to his advantage. This will lead to massive and amount of instability/constant directional changes on any subjects because every party dealing with him at any level will be trying to manipulate what is in effect a mentally ill person.

    -do expect a Tianamen Square like massacre.
    -do expect economic, foreign policy, etc counterparties to look for other options other than USA.
    -do expect nothing to get done. Just see the MAGA vs DOGE fight on real time now and how fast it went to statements like “ Who elected this indian president? “We got to the moon without you people” . All scratching the surface tension of the issue at hand which is MAGA nationalist enthusiast trying to have the upper hand over the Billionaire internationalist class and vice versa.

  20. Juice Box says:

    3b – Hijab went away before in Iran. It was actually banned by the Shah regimes. Their current hardline Islamic leadership is against Westernization however that ship has sailed due mainly because of the adoption of smart phones. They even tried banning them years ago. That has not worked at all. We all live in a connected world today and will stay that way for the time being.

  21. Fast Eddie says:

    – do expect a Tianamen Square like massacre –> Didn’t happen, will never happen.
    – do expect economic, foreign policy, etc counterparties to look for other options other than USA –> And yet the world still revolves around the United States of America.
    – do expect nothing to get done:

    “One Big Beautiful Bill”: Signed a major tax reform package making previous tax cuts permanent, establishing “No Tax on Tips,” and creating “Trump Accounts” with $1,000 for every newborn.

    Job Creation: Added over 687,000 private-sector jobs in the first half of 2025, with native-born workers reaching record employment levels.

    Market Performance: Major stock indices including the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached record highs, with the S&P 500 gaining 17% over the year.

    Energy Independence: Declared a National Energy Emergency, reopened over 600 million acres for drilling, and ended bans on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

    Cost Reductions: Gas prices fell below $3 per gallon nationally, and grocery staples like eggs dropped in price by approximately 53%.

    Record Low Crossings: Monthly illegal border encounters dropped by over 90% compared to previous years, reaching record lows.

    Mass Removals: Over 2.5 million illegal immigrants left the country through a combination of more than 600,000 deportations and 1.9 million self-deportations.

    Enhanced Enforcement: Reinstated the “Remain in Mexico” policy and designated major cartels like MS-13 and Tren de Aragua as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

    Wall Construction: Resumed building the border wall by cutting through bureaucratic red tape and repurposing previously stalled funding.

    MAHA Commission: Established the Make America Healthy Again initiative to combat chronic disease, beginning the phase-out of synthetic food dyes and fluoride in public water.

    Reinstated federal policies recognizing only two biological sexes and barred federal funding for “gender-affirming care” for minors and trans-participation in women’s sports.

    Hostage Recovery: Successfully negotiated the release of more than 10 American citizens held abroad, including individuals from Russia, Venezuela, and Gaza.

    Diplomatic Agreements: Mediated ceasefires or peace frameworks in several global conflicts, including a permanent peace agreement in Gaza.

    Tariff Revenue: Collected nearly $190 billion in customs revenue through 2025 by imposing reciprocal tariffs on foreign trading partners.

    Military Expansion: Formally re-established the “Department of War” as a secondary title for the DOD and achieved the highest military recruitment numbers in decades.

  22. 3b says:

    Juice: The Hijsb ban was instituted almost immediately after the lslamists took over. They are loosening up now because of how close it’s getting to an uprising by the people. Maybe the Iranian women can ship their Hijabs to all the liberal women at all Columbia and the other American universities.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    And a dozen other things like rescuing astronauts, 32-hour bombing missions destroying Iranian nuclear program, blowing up drug runners, modernizing the WH, presenting a state of the art defense system, etc.

    Compare this to the empty suit and the vegetable and one can see why the left is apoplectic.

  24. Juice Box says:

    I cheated with my predictions, as my new AI coworker is faster than me.

    Category –> Prediction —-> Trend/Direction

    GDP Growth 1.8% – 2.0% ➡️ Steady / Slow
    S&P 500 Target 7,800 ↗️ Bullish
    Mortgage Rates 5.9% – 6.4% ↘️ Slightly Lower
    NYC Rents High Growth ⬆️ Rising Fast
    Gold $5,000/oz 🚀 Skyrocketing
    Oil ~$56/bbl ⬇️ Bearish
    AI Trend “Agentic” (Autonomous) ⚡ Transformative will be know as the “hiring freeze of the decade.”

  25. Juice Box says:

    Here is a real estate wildcard.

    The Real Estate Wildcard: “The Insurance Cliff”
    The Scenario: It’s not mortgage rates that crash the market—it’s insurance.

    The Shift: Major insurers, battered by climate data modeling, aggressively pull out of coastal zones.

    NY Metro Impact: A “tale of two markets” emerges within the same town.

    The Crash: Waterfront properties in Long Island (South Shore) and the Jersey Shore see values plummet 15–20% because buyers strictly cannot get affordable coverage.

    The Boom: “Inland Safe Havens” (towns just 10 miles inland with high elevation like Northern Westchester or the Watchung Mountains in NJ) see bidding wars as they become the new “risk-free” luxury assets.

  26. Juice Box says:

    Here is the AI wildcard for 2026.

    The Tech Wildcard: “The Dead Internet”
    The Scenario: The open web becomes unusable due to AI slop.

    The Shift: By late 2026, 90% of online content is AI-generated spam/bots fighting other bots. Search engines break.

    The Pivot: “Human-Gated Communities.” The most valuable online real estate becomes paid, ID-verified communities (digital country clubs) where you can prove you are speaking to a human. Advertising models collapse, forcing a shift to subscription-only models for almost everything.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Summary of AI predicted wildcards NY Metro for 2026.

    Category ——>The “Black Swan” Event

    NYC Economy White-Collar Recession (AI freezes high-paid hiring)
    Real Estate Insurance Apartheid (Uninsurable coasts vs. booming inland)
    StocksMelt-Up Bubble (Panic buying drives S&P >8,000) Geopolitics Cyber Siege (Port/Grid hacks spike inflation)
    TechDead Internet (Humans flee to paid, gated online zones)

  28. Juice Box says:

    2026 AI predictions of the “Mamdani Effect” on NYC Real Estate Markets

    Sector —-> Reaction

    Luxury Real Estate Capital Flight. Wealthy buyers may pause purchases, fearing a “Mansion Tax” or wealth tax. Prices in the $3M+ segment could dip 5–8%.

    Commercial RE Panic. Office landlords, already struggling, will fear new regulations. Expect a push to convert offices to housing but only only if the NY state and City subsidizes it heavily.

    Everyday Renters Mixed Bag. Existing tenants feel safer (rent freeze), but new tenants find it impossible to find an apartment as turnover crashes.

    Crime/Policing Friction. The NYPD union (PBA) will likely clash with Mamdani’s efforts to cut the police budget or reduce qualified immunity, leading to a “soft strike” (slowdown in arrests).

  29. Juice Box says:

    Here is how AI predicts how the “Mamdani Effect” across the river in New Jersey in 2026:

    1. The “Millionaire Migration” to the Gold Coast
    Mamdani’s plan to raise the corporate tax to 11.5% and add a 2% wealth surcharge on incomes over $1 million has created a “math problem” for NYC’s elite.

    The Trade: A taxpayer earning $10M/year could save roughly $1M to $1.5M annually just by moving across the Hudson.

    Resilient Hubs: Expect Jersey City (Paulus Hook) and Hoboken to see a surge in “tax-refugee” buyers. These neighborhoods offer the same lifestyle as the West Village but with a massive “discount” on local income taxes.

    Impact: Prices in these “Gold Coast” areas are expected to climb 10–12% in 2026, outpacing the rest of the NJ market.

    2. The Commercial “Relocation” Boom
    With Mamdani proposing to match New Jersey’s corporate tax rate, NYC loses its competitive edge for mid-sized firms.

    Prediction: We will see the rise of “Satellite HQ” culture. Instead of one massive Midtown office, firms will move their primary legal address to Newark or Jersey City to lower their tax liability, while keeping a smaller “showroom” office in Manhattan.

    Winners: Newark’s downtown office corridor and the Metropark (Iselin) area, which provide easy rail access for employees living in both states.

    3. The “Suburban Gold Rush” (Bergen & Essex Counties)
    The fear of a “Universal Rent Freeze” and potential cuts to the NYPD under Mamdani has triggered a spike in New Yorkers looking for “stability” in the suburbs.

    The Bidding War: Towns like Montclair, Ridgewood, Glen Rock, and Millburn—already expensive—are seeing a second wave of “pandemic-style” bidding wars in early 2026.

    The Inventory Crunch: As New Yorkers flee, they are outbidding local NJ families. Expect homes in the $800k–$1.5M range in these “train towns” to sell for 15–20% above asking within days of listing.

    4. Policy Rivalry: The “Sherrill vs. Mamdani” Contrast
    With Mikie Sherrill serving as the new Governor of New Jersey (having won the 2025 election), 2026 will be defined by a ideological “Border War.”

    Sherrill’s Strategy: While Mamdani focuses on structural overhaul (city-run groceries, free buses), Sherrill is leaning into “Pragmatic Affordability.”

    The Policy: Expect Sherrill to aggressively market NJ’s ANCHOR property tax relief and childcare credits as a direct counter-programming to NYC’s socialism. NJ will position itself as the “Adult in the Room” for families who want progressive values without the fiscal volatility.

    5. Transport Tensions (The Transit Tax)
    The Clash: To fund his “Free Bus” initiative and bridge the budget gap, Mamdani may look for ways to tax commuters.

    The Wildcard: There is high potential for a legal battle over New York’s taxation of NJ residents who work remotely for NYC firms. If Mamdani doubles down on this revenue stream, expect a “tax revolt” from NJ commuters, potentially leading to a permanent shift where NJ companies refuse to hire NYC-based employees to avoid the paperwork.

  30. Chad Powers says:

    What is coming in 2026:

    -The GDP gap between the USA and the EU will continue to widen. The economy of the EU as a whole will continue to decline.

    -A major terrorist incident will take place in Western Europe.

    -The war in the Ukraine will come to a halt with significant concessions made by Ukraine.

    -Putin will continue in his efforts to destabilize the Western World with some success.

    -Trump will win the Nobel Peace Prize.

    -Former President Biden will take a bad fall, break his hip and die shortly thereafter.

    -The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl.

  31. 3b says:

    WSJ article on Boston Luxury Condos built, but the buyers are not coming. Boston was trying to copy NYC and Miami with massive luxury condo building, but not enough buyer interest, so condos are sitting.

  32. Libturd says:

    Starting tomorrow, the curtain goes up on the Trump charade.

    The first real sign will come on January 9th with the unemployment rate which will sore far above the post covid highs which it has been doing for months already. This report (should) actually contain ALL of the data. Not the handpicked categories from when the government was closed.

    Next will be the inflation report on the 13th which too will contain ALL of the data and not just positive data on oil and forward EV sales.

    Slowly, but surely, the huge investment in AI will mimic the 1999 tech bubble where companies will realize they are not getting enough for their heavy spending as simultaneously customers begin to stray away from companies that have adopted AI powered customer service call centers. Have any of you used one yet? Now try it on a cell phone with some noise in the background. It’s completely useless. I thought things were bad when the Indian couldn’t understand me. Now you’ll have a computer programmed to guess what you need.

    The market is priced to perfection. Cracks in Crypto are worsening by the day. Three times in December, the overnight repo had to be tapped for 20-50 billion to keep our currency flowing. Car and college loans are defaulting at increasingly higher rates. Unemployment is worsening. And Inflation in everything but oil and rent is through the roof.

    Tomorrow will also signify the end of the Obamacare Subsidies. Everyone is going to look at their health care bills and are going to plotz. But there’s a nice ballroom in the white house and Trump has accepted a 747 from terrorists.

  33. Libturd says:

    But wait. There’s more.

    Trump removes Kennedy’s name from his arts center and renames the Kenilworth Park Landfill in D.C. after Marjorie Taylor Green.

  34. 3b says:

    Saks files for bankruptcy.

  35. Dark Phoenix says:

    How quaint. And fucking weird.

    Volodymyr Zelensky was able to get onto Donald Trump’s good side by bonding over Ukrainian beauty queens, according to a new report.

  36. Dark Phoenix says:

    Says it all

    2025 has been the Year Of Tariffs, and not just in the United States — the European Union has gotten in on the trend too, taxing Chinese cars to protect European automakers. There’s just one issue with the EU’s plan there: It’s not working. European drivers seem to love Chinese EVs, because sales just keep climbing.

    Read More: https://www.jalopnik.com/2064920/european-drivers-love-chinese-evs/

  37. Juice Box says:

    Lib now knocking Grim?

    “simultaneously customers begin to stray away from companies that have adopted AI powered customer service call centers.”

  38. Juice Box says:

    Also Lib I am sure you are aware but the government runs on taxes and borrowing.

    U.S. government collected a record $5.23 trillion in total revenue in fiscal year 2025…

    BTW New Jersey happy new year. I gassed up today last chance to do so 4.2 cents added in taxes starting ASASP…

  39. Juice Box says:

    Lib – When the banks are short of cash they hit the repo window. That only means one thing overleverage. It’s not crypto still too small. What else can be considered illiquid but liquid funding?

    Greenbacks galore for the banks as always…credit line for repos is something like a 1/4 trillion in the overnight..So I a going have to do some research again as I will need to reposition eventually.

    Fortunately for me my better half has some insights that few of us get to see. I will post for all as always. Happy New Year..and I do mean that. I have no bones to pick here you are all smart people. Even our resident crypto permabull…

  40. BRT says:

    Silver to $100, that’s my prediction…or at least my desired outcome

  41. Ex says:

    A fish rots from the head down.

    – – – – – – –

    Mark it zero, Donny

  42. Ex says:

    Hoo Haw Navy

  43. Juice Box says:

    Lib – you mentioned the discount window. Well the opaque repo market is bigger than regulators expected, dealer and a hedge funds private lending agreements. This is probably where the cash was needed.

    non-centrally cleared bilateral repurchase agreements (NCCBRs) market this year was discovered to be twice the size as expected. The NCCBR market is a huge part of the overall repurchase agreement market, estimated at trillions of dollars daily, but historically under-measured.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-12-trillion-u-s-repo-market-evidence-from-a-novel-panel-of-intermediaries-20250711.html

  44. Ex says:

    I’ll always maintain that it’s an exit. Not an entrance.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    Happy New Year, all!

  46. Dark Phoenix says:

    The powers that be wanna put a tripwire force in Ukraine.

    Good luck with that.

  47. Dark Phoenix says:

    Supposedly there is backlash in NYC because Mamdani is going to impose that people there use Arabic numbers from now on.

    😂

  48. Juice Box says:

    Dark – stolen culture? The numbering system was invented in ancient India 2,300 years ago. A thousand years later the Sindh region traders which borders Iran reportedly brought Indian astronomical texts to the court of Caliph Al-Mansur in Baghdad and it spread from there to Europe along the trading routes.

  49. 3b says:

    Happy New Year.

  50. Chicago says:

    Private market investors illiquidity can spill into the public markets in that a need for cash can’t be fulfilled in any other ready way.

    Any data from December 19th to getting past the turn meaning January 6th, but preferably the week of the 12th is distorted and can tossed out. An institution will do whatever is necessary to create the vision they want at year-end.

  51. Dark Phoenix says:

    Mickey Malka

    Interesting character.

  52. Dark Phoenix says:

    Here is some more winning for ‘ya. A holiday gift to the plebs from their handlers:

    US dollar set for biggest drop in a decade after Trump trade war – here’s what it means for your wallet

    Since January, the Dollar Index — which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major currencies, including the euro, yen, and pound — is down about 10 percent.

    That’s the biggest tumble for the dollar since 2017.

    When the dollar weakens, it takes more cash to buy goods made overseas — and retailers usually pass those costs on to consumers.

    That means imported products like iPhones, laptops, and TVs assembled abroad are more likely to see price hikes if the dollar’s decline continues.

    Clothes, shoes, furniture, and even new cars and replacement auto parts can also become more expensive, particularly when they’re sourced from Asia or Europe.

    Foreign travel gets pricier too.

    A weaker dollar buys less overseas, making hotel stays, restaurant meals, and shopping abroad feel noticeably more expensive.

    Energy costs can also creep higher. Because oil is priced globally in dollars, producers often raise prices when the dollar falls to protect their earnings.

    That can push up gas prices, heating and electricity bills, and delivery costs — increases that eventually filter down into food prices.

  53. Libturd says:

    Went to see a movie tonight. Nothing special, no 3-D or any of the other silly dine in or other movie theater rip offs. $15 per person. Apparently, there’s no longer kids and senior discounts. Everyone pays the same arm and leg. But why not? There’s no inflation.

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