From ROI-NJ:
N.J. home price surge bucks national trend of price growth hitting softest rate since Great Recession
Cotality, a provider of property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions, released its Home Price Index for December 2025 data Feb. 3, revealing national housing growth continues to cool along with the weather.
In December, annual price growth slowed to just 0.9% — one of the softest rates since the post-Great Recession recovery. This indicates that the market is in a rebalancing phase where strong economic and housing fundamentals are necessary to support local housing demand.
Even as national growth softens, the Midwest and parts of Northeast remain strong due to their relative affordability, diversified job markets and hybrid work dynamics. States such as New Jersey (+5.5%), Illinois (+5.4%), Nebraska (+5.4%), and Connecticut (+5.1%) are among the nation’s strongest performers, with markets like Newark, Allentown, Pa., and Chicago recording gains that run counter to the broader cooling trend.
New Jersey was one of seven states that reached new high home price growth as of December. The others were Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nebraska, Louisiana, Indiana and Mississippi.
“We are seeing a significant departure from the rapid surges of recent years; while the upward pressure on prices remains, the momentum has moderated enough to suggest that the market is finally becoming more navigable for prospective buyers,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.
Negative home price growth is dominating the South and the West — including Florida, Texas, Colorado, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and California — reflecting the pressure of higher inventory levels and moderating in-migration in markets that previously saw rapid expansion.
4(x + 2) = 15 – 3x
New Jersey was one of seven states that reached new high home price growth as of December. The others were Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nebraska, Louisiana, Indiana and Mississippi.
A trend towards affordability and more importantly, sanity.
3
Pines Lake. At first I can’t figure it out. It’s a townhouse. There’s nothing else for sale in the lake area. I considered Wayne extensively in my past search.
https://www.trulia.com/home/8-tomahawk-dr-wayne-nj-07470-39800497?mid=0#lil-mediaTab
1st line in description: “*Multiple offers have been received. Seller is Requesting all H & B offers by Wed 2/4 5pm*”
https://www.trulia.com/home/418-pines-lake-dr-e-wayne-nj-07470-39799632
Predict the hammer price.
You should’ve left it alone. Why do people mutilate their houses?
https://www.trulia.com/home/1316-alps-rd-wayne-nj-07470-39795192
7
8
That pines lake house is going to go for way over 799
I like the layout in the Pines Lake one for 799k. All “H&B” offers by today. Is that the vernacular used by the ‘pros’? Such arrogance.
“Gimme your H&B sweeties and don’t insult the seller.”
“What’s the highest offer?”
“I can’t tell you.”
Effing games.
This is you US Gary, German Gary
*party of Family Values before/ now defender of Pedos
*against bailing out college debt/in favor of bailing out Argentina
*No to masks / Yes to masks
*2nd amendment fundamentalist / now against carry
*hates big government/ now loves big govt kidnapping and mureder
*anti-communist / for communist universal healthcare for 65 and older
*pro-trade all their lives / suddenly pro-tariffs for no reason
VAG,
Louisiana and Mississippi leading on house price growth. I don’t believe it, no one wants to move there. You agree?
Pines lake house. Kitchen counters are what 1960-70s Formica? Cabinets need to go they aren’t even paintable to white. Microwave on counter, missing back splash tile section on back wall. Vinly flooring. Wood Paneling everywhere? Nice crack in the foundation wall out back. Siding looks to be faded vinyl siding (garage is the worst fading), windows and doors look pretty old too. Olive green sinks and toilets were in style during the late 1960s. Heating/Cooling system a mishmash of baseboard and forced air.
Pony up a cool million to get the keys and another 250k for gut renovation to make it livable, then you get to enjoy that tax new higher tax bill too. Tax assessed is only $270,300. Annual tax amount: $16,072.
Juice: So you don’t like it?
Iceberg dead ahead!! Keansburg fishing pier has collapsed, it is 2000 ft long… Last time it was taken out by Hurricane Sandy…
Not that I would ever go there to fish, to much illegal dumping in the bay for over well over hundred years. It literally is an underwater landfill. The fish they catch and test today are loaded with mercury and PCBs and other nasty forever chemicals and elements.
Too late Powell needs to lower rates now before he wrecks this economy. Like wake the f up. You are battling borderline deflation right now and the jobs report was a disaster just now. Start lowering the rates so that you can fix the housing market…don’t f/k up this economy out of hate for Trump.
The Fed is late. They always are and always will be.
Politics. The global elite trying their hardest to destroy Trump. It’s obvious rates should have been lowered this past meeting…it makes zero sense that they were not.
Risk on….it’s f/ing obvious at this point. Buy the dip in crypto/btc if you like making money.
Signals ….
“BITCOIN IS NOW THE MOST OVERSOLD IN THE LAST 5 YEARS, MORE THAN THE COVID CRASH
THIS IS WILD”
“ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT MACRO SIGNALS JUST FLIPPED.
There’s one indicator that has front-run every major Bitcoin move for 15 years.
Yesterday, for the first time in 4 years, it flipped back into expansion.
Not the halving.
Not M2.
This one has a 100% hit rate.
ISM: 52.6 vs 48.5 forecast.
Highest since 2022.
In past cycles:
When ISM moves above 50,
credit expands then liquidity follows and finally Bitcoin moves with leverage.
After a 4-year downtrend, the data just turned.
Does this guarantee a bull market? No.
Could it be a tariff-driven fakeout? Yes.
But this is the strongest signal we’ve seen in over a year.”
The fish they catch and test today are loaded with mercury and PCBs and other nasty forever chemicals and elements.
We had a boat at Green Street for years. The Polish mob ran the place. Shhh!! lol. Anyway, we used to crab in the Black Tom for years. I must have consumed a lot of heavy metals. lol.
Go ahead, let the jokes fly.
Pumps – Supposedly over a trillion on Commercial real estate loans that need to be refinanced this year. They were locked in a decade ago when historically low rates around 4%. Office and retail sectors mostly will have issues if they have to refinance higher they need to bring cash to the table. Will be tough to do for sure. Estimates are all over the place but if only 10% fail that is a 100 billion write-down for the banks.
Punkin!
Bustin’ out in 2026!! Make money!!
Pumps – What did I say about bitcoin? What did I say? When the miners cannot pay their electric bills the music stops.
Cassandra (Michael Burry) agrees with me BTW. Just another 10% down in Bitcoin and the music stops.
““Sickening scenarios have now come within reach,” Burry wrote. Should Bitcoin fall another 10%, Strategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate crypto treasury, would be billions in the red and “find capital markets essentially closed.” Additional drops, he said, would push Bitcoin miners toward bankruptcy.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-warns-cascading-effects-001910407.html
Juice,
Buy the fear.
“I wish I bought Bitcoin in 2015”
Well, BTC is the most undervalued against gold since 2015.
Silly, silly, little Pumps. Bitcoin is the most marketed investment ever. It’s entire success was based on one fool, convincing the next fool that it had value. Yet there is absolutely no intrinsic value in it. You are purchasing a string of letters, numbers and characters that cost a heck of a lot of energy to pretend mine. Here, I’ll give you the first limited edition Factcoin.
8===!@#NATES.00001#@!DNA8.79#@!Bitcoin<76====) —- ):
Juice,
Those miners will then just buy BTC that is UNDERVALUED on the open market till price makes sense to mine again. There is no stopping digital gold.
Bitcoin at 75! You told me to buy it when it was over 100! Then at 83! Then at 79! You said you bought some. How much are you in the hole with the old lady’s money.
And AU is above 5K!!!
I laugh at this thought process. What isn’t a marketed investment? Value is based on what other humans value it at, not intrinsic value. Mona Lisa is a painted piece of paper…worth “priceless.”
End of the day, BTC value is in energy. Energy it takes to create BTC. That energy is its value created in scarcity. Aka digital gold.
Libturd says:
February 4, 2026 at 9:30 am
Silly, silly, little Pumps. Bitcoin is the most marketed investment ever. It’s entire success was based on one fool, convincing the next fool that it had value. Yet there is absolutely no intrinsic value in it. You are purchasing a string of letters, numbers and characters that cost a heck of a lot of energy to pretend mine. Here, I’ll give you the first limited edition Factcoin.
8===!@#NATES.00001#@!DNA8.79#@!Bitcoin<76====) —- ):
Who cares about the perfect price. You just care about buying something undervalued by the market that will eventually revert to being overvalued when you sell.
Libturd says:
February 4, 2026 at 9:32 am
Bitcoin at 75! You told me to buy it when it was over 100! Then at 83! Then at 79! You said you bought some. How much are you in the hole with the old lady’s money.
Don’t interrupt Punkin’s education.
Pumps – Once bitcoin was given access the capital markets it is guaranteed doom.
Approval of spot ETFs in early 2024. Today well approximately 85% of ETF Bitcoin is held by Coinbase as custodian for their retail customers. Outflow of $1.5 billion the last week, and this week so far an additional $272 million in net outflows.
This selloff is retail heading for the exits after getting their house repossessed, and Tony the collector coming by to get his weekly payment.
I cannot wait for the wailing for a bailout.
Pumps. I’ll make a bet with you, even though, I know you won’t pay it if you lose. One Wagyu Brisket (minimum of 10 pounds or about $200) says my investment in SOFI will outperform Bitcoin by 12/31/2026.
Here is why SOFI is undervalued.
We have here is a stock with a high P/E based on it’s rapid and sizeable growth, versus a CEO who likes to issue shares, punishing current shareholders. Certainly in the short run, the CEO wins. But the stock value has nothing to do with SOFI’s continued ability to grow both in size and EPS. We all knew it was overvalued in the 32s based on the current valuation. Though, if growth continues at this pace for a couple of years, the P/E should climb again. Remember, Noto’s (their CEO) dilution was about 5%. Stock was around 26 at earnings. 5% dilution moves stock price down to 24.7. Current stock price is 21.00. It’s been a falling knife since the Nasdaq has pretty much been flat, November till today.
I bought a tiny position at 22 yesterday and just now a more sizeable position came in at 21. Keep in mind, all of the money I am using for this position I made selling SOFI in the 30s which I bought around 10, when I told you to buy it. Walking did. You were hawking DNA at the time. And since you love marketing, Needham lowered their price target to 33 from 35 Monday and JPM upped their price target to 31. It’s a no-brainer.
So you in on the bet, loudmouth?
Nasdaq sucking balls again.
Have a meeting with the town over our tax assessment. They forgot our property floods, which was good for about 3K discount last time. It’s the same company and same rep. Should be easy peasy. See you all after lunch.
LMK pumps.
Pumps – Next leg down will be when the institutional holders start filing on their Bitcoin holdings. 13F for last quarter is due Feb 14. With the Feb 14th 13F we can estimate large holder and institutional losses based on current prices.
Again I am down since you told me to purchase in October -42%……
Fast: There was a Polish mob in Jersey?
Claude causing angst.
BREAKING!
UPDATED WED, FEB 4 2026
10:15 AM EST
S&P 500 falls for a second day as AMD sinks, software rout continues: Live updates
Sean Conlon
Pia Singh
“Fast: There was a Polish mob in Jersey?”
Yeah, they would bust your windows and then replace them on the cheap.
Never heard of the Ice Man Richard Kuklinski?
But Pret said no more writedowns?
Juice Box says:
February 4, 2026 at 10:20 am
Pumps – Next leg down will be when the institutional holders start filing on their Bitcoin holdings. 13F for last quarter is due Feb 14. With the Feb 14th 13F we can estimate large holder and institutional losses based on current prices.
Again I am down since you told me to purchase in October -42%……
There is no education. Replace Bitcoin with Cathy Wood ARK, and all of our comments are identical.
No One says:
February 4, 2026 at 9:41 am
Don’t interrupt Punkin’s education.
The Washington Post laid off hundreds of employees on Wednesday, which its former executive editor said “ranks among the darkest days” in the newspaper’s history. Approximately one-third of employees were affected.
You should have pivoted away from tabloid fiction a long time ago.
Lib I have done nicely with SOFI, bought it only on you recommendation, which I never do.Thanks.
Fast: There was a Polish mob in Jersey?
They controlled an uber prime area exclusive to “friends” and “family” so yes, there was a time. :)
Jersey City/Hoboken flew under the radar for a looooong time.
Juice: I remember the movie from 10 plus years ago, he was a hit man. I thought his Polish ancestry was just by chance.
3B,
If you wait until the falling knife stops, SOFI’s a very good buy once again. Same long term story is intact. Personally, I have no issue with the dilution as long as the CEO continues to over deliver.
Fast: Polish mob in Jersey City/Hoboken, that is surprising.
Chi,
Shhh, don’t deny his genius. Reliable counter-indicators are hard to find.
Nasdaq is now where it was 4 months ago.
Again, how convenient that the January Jobs report, arguably the most important economic report of the the month, is delays due to the two day government shutdown.
In the meanwhile, sink your teeth into the non-government report.
Private payrolls grew by just 22,000 in January, ADP said Wednesday, below economists’ expectations of 45,000 positions.
The tally for last year was perhaps an omen.
“Job creation took a step back in 2025, with private employers adding 398,000 jobs, down from 771,000 in 2024,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said in a statement. “While we’ve seen a continuous and dramatic slowdown in job creation for the past three years, wage growth has remained stable.”
Manufacturing helped lead the slowdown with a drop of 8,000 jobs in January, according to ADP, less than one year out from President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and promises to restore positions to the sector. Professional and business services also continued to decline, while construction added roles. Losses across the economy would’ve appeared even more stark if not for the healthcare and education sectors posting positive growth, with 74,000 new positions gained in January.
December’s gains were also revised downward, with 37,000 positions added rather than the initially reported 41,000.
This week’s private data releases — ADP with private payroll growth on Wednesday, and the job outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas with layoffs announcements on Thursday — will be even more closely watched than usual, thanks to the brief, partial government shutdown pushing back the latest official Labor Department data on openings, job growth, and the unemployment rate.
Though the shutdown ended Tuesday, there’s been no word yet on when the all-important government data will be made public.
Nasdaq is now where it was 4 months ago.
It’s up 50% since April, 2025.
So…. ??
As an investor, do we look at the risk? The reward? Or, are we just gamblers?
Doesn’t capture what is happening.
There is a massive reallocation.
We are in the midst of a SaaS valuation meltdown.
The index itself holding speaks volumes (for today).
Libturd says:
February 4, 2026 at 11:44 am
Nasdaq is now where it was 4 months ago.
Should have wrote “for now”
We are in the midst of a SaaS valuation meltdown.
Yes.
In the land of Springsteen, my boy Mellencamp is in PNC in July.
No bets for me…my money is already going to work. And I have always liked sofi…just not high enough on the risk curve for me.
“THE ISM PMI JUST GAVE BITCOIN ITS BULL RUN SIGNAL
Every bottom in the manufacturing data lines up with the largest Bitcoin bull runs.
Below 50 = contraction → above 50 = expansion.
Two days ago, we went from contraction into expansion.
The fastest expansion in four years.
These are the bull‑market conditions you’ve been waiting for.
This is exactly where real money gets made, but most people are too afraid.
Don’t be one of those people.”
Understand that BTC minus institutional buys has been in a bear market like the rest of crypto since 2022. BTC has never had a bull with the ISM below 50…it has been below 50 since 2022.
That’s what has killed DNA and every other risk asset since 2022. If it wasn’t for AI investment carrying the stock market and economy past few years, this would have been the norm for all equities and risk investments. AI prevented a bear market.
Who’s using Agentics and Vibe Coding?
Point is….this is no time to get bearish. The conditions for growth are finally here. They ended QT finally after almost 4 years. Deflation is knocking. Housing has been frozen (as bad as it gets in housing has probably already passed). I just don’t see how growth cycle isn’t coming.
I would say Elon dumping XAi into Space X has allot to do with piercing the veil.
Ten 426
Pret said no more writedowns
First intelligent thing you’ve posted in weeks. Possibly years.
The Great Pumpkin says:
February 4, 2026 at 12:34 pm
That’s what has killed DNA and every other risk asset since 2022. If it wasn’t for AI investment carrying the stock market and economy past few years, this would have been the norm for all equities and risk investments. AI prevented a bear market.
“It’s up 50% since April, 2025.”
Yet only 16% in the last year. Handpick much?
Those sound like cannabis vape flavors.
Fast Eddie says:
February 4, 2026 at 12:39 pm
Who’s using Agentics and Vibe Coding?
Beginning of market collapse?
It sure is beginning to feel that way.
“cannabis vape flavors.”
There’s a Puff City on Route 46, write across the street from Mr. Jones dispensary. I wonder where such creativity in naming came from?
If Nasdaq doesn’t hold at 22K, then there’s no support until Gary’s handpicked April.
Let’s see if there is any bounce whatsoever.
UPDATED!
WED, FEB 4 2026 12:42 PM EST
S&P 500 falls for a second day, Nasdaq sheds 2% as chip stocks decline led by AMD: Live updates
Sean Conlon
Pia Singh
re: “Who’s using Agentic”.
We had a few customers on a call recently different sectors healthcare, insurance, banking etc. They have asked us to rename it from agentic to automation to get legal and compliance to approve it.
We also have surveyed users. They don’t use it because well it might replace them….
Agentic will have more formal resistance than ICE that is for sure. We will all be on the Ramparts if agentic is what it proclaims to be.
Bonus point if you can remember who here used ramparts all the time in his posts…
Handpick much?
I was going to ask you if you handpick much, that’s because I picked April.
Up only 16% YOY? Only?
Bonus point if you can remember who here used ramparts all the time in his posts…
“Rampart, this is station 51!”
Yes, I’m that old.
Don’t remember who used it on this forum.
Eddie,
It’s all about to go kablooie.
What my crypto investment play is….agentic AI. I hope it does well.
Fast Eddie says:
February 4, 2026 at 12:39 pm
Who’s using Agentics and Vibe Coding?
Fast: Washington Post employees made bad choices.During the election staff went ballistic when the paper refused to endorse Harris, and when the paper wanted to hire a conservative columnist. They were encouraging people to cancel their subscriptions.
During the election staff went ballistic…
Ergo, liberalism is a mental disorder.
Let’s Go!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=v7Vn2LhNooY&pp=ygUPU2Vhc29ucyB2aWFwbGF5
More free AI.
Amazon now giving away Alexa+ with Prime.
“Amazon’s asking price for its Alexa+ subscription is odd. At $20 a month, customers would have to pay more for Alexa+ than they would for an Amazon Prime subscription, which costs $14.99 monthly or $139 annually. The reason this sticks out as strange is that Alexa+ access is included in an Amazon Prime subscription. Additionally, unlimited access to Alexa+ would most benefit owners of Alexa devices, who likely already have Amazon Prime subscriptions.
On the flip side of this, the growing interest in AI does mean there’s more demand for access to chatbots. This could have sparked an interest in Alexa+ from AI users who aren’t interested in Amazon’s other offerings, even if they could get the service for cheaper through an Amazon Prime subscription.”
Want to take the time out of my day to say thank you. Not often that someone says something positive to me on this blog.
Chicago says:
February 4, 2026 at 12:47 pm
First intelligent thing you’ve posted in weeks. Possibly years.
You are not bullish enough…
BREAKING: Sec. Scott Bessent just STUNNED the “experts” by confirming +4.1% US economic GROWTH — while Europe recorded only 0.3%…and it’s only going to accelerate from here
Bessent and Trump WERE RIGHT!
“The U.S. will have reported likely, despite the longest government shutdown in history, 4.1% growth for the past three quarters!”
“And so we have been successful at that. Europe last week celebrated 0.3% growth. So it’s no comparison. And I think we are beginning to accelerate.”
“Importantly, everything we are doing is to fix this terrible Biden inflation from the past four years, 21.5%, much more for working families. And we are bringing that down!”
H/t @RNCResearch
Chgo Pret, now that’s a blast from the past. And who can forget Bi and Biluva too.
The Wall Street Journal
Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin criticized the Trump administration’s interference into the day-to-day business of American companies and raised concerns about self-serving decisions made by government officials.
ROFL – So you have been buying bitcoin to opt out of the system but now discover due to the Epstein files that Jeffrey Epstein is even more important to Bitcoin more than Satoshi Nakamoto….. as Epstein funded the creation of Bitcoin Core.
From the files.
Epstein donated $850,000 to the MIT Media Lab, of which roughly $525,000 was directed to the Digital Currency Initiative (DCI).
Developer Support: In 2015, during a funding crisis for the Bitcoin Foundation, these MIT funds were used to pay salaries for prominent Bitcoin Core developers, including Gavin Andresen, Wladimir van der Laan, and Cory Fields.
Concealment: MIT staff and former Media Lab director Joi Ito reportedly hid the source of this money, with some internal communications referring to Epstein as “Voldemort”.
Pumps – Alanta’s Fed has it GDP @ 4.2%, last week it was 5.6%
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Epstein is alive.
Just wait until foreign governments start their own Epstein investigations.
They won’t be redacting names in their reports.
The GDP # is juiced due to Trump’s massive increase in defense spending. So much for reducing the deficit.
It’s wild we need a dead man’s emails to believe the testimonies of 1000 women.
3:48 building Data Centers. Pull those out. We’re negative.
Masked thugs on streets.
Measles outbreaks across the nation.
Blatant government corruption.
Coverup of elite sex offenders.
Ruling party trying to rig elections.
Leader building grandiose monuments to himself.
Destruction of nonpartisan civil service.
Third world America.
-Bill Kristol
I can be embarrassing vague, too!
Premium Air Zone Pricing
National Sidewalk Rerouting Initiative
Alphabetical Voting Bans
Subsidized Gravity Studies
Mandatory Inner City Interpretive Dance
The Semicolon Embargo
Forced Nap-Time Sirens
Third World America.
– Fast Eddie
4:20 that’s waaay over my head. Remember I’m an imbecile.
Gary: Yeah, like you can’t use Google , or you type in www on a web address. I forget what it was, but yeah you are an imbecile.
Pegasus? Cellebrite?
Why are you in our phones?
Apple has warned that iPhone users are at risk from ‘mercenary spyware attacks’ threatening to steal data without the victim even clicking on a suspicious link.
The tech giant said the threat stems from the vast majority of users not updating to the latest version of their phone software, known as iOS 26.
A foreign country attacking a citizen in another country should be considered an act of war and dealt with accordingly.
I don’t hack other’s phones.
Stay the fucc out of mine.
Arc says:
February 4, 2026 at 3:54 pm
It’s wild we need a dead man’s emails to believe the testimonies of 1000 women.
When there is a motive to lie, ya gotta ask questions.
1000 liars though, i’m gonna side with them. at least one is telling the truth, and that’s enough for me.
Anybody know yet if they are making out on of the new Salt Deduction which was raised back to $40,000?
Lib: for you
Opinion
The Economics of Hip Hop
Do graphic rap lyrics cause social breakdown? To find out, we looked at decades of nationwide radio data.
By Roland Fryer
Hip hop has been the soundtrack of my life. When I close my eyes, I can still feel the walk to elementary school—morning light low and pale, sneakers darkening with dew—and hear myself half-whispering, half-performing Run-DMC’s “You Be Illin’,” trying on rhythm and swagger like a second skin long before I understood the consequences of either. By high school it was Dr. Dre, bass rattling the rearview mirror of my beat-up white Monte Carlo—raw, confrontational, impossible to ignore. Now it’s Killer Mike, layered, reflective and musically expansive. The style has evolved. The feeling hasn’t.
Today, hip hop plays at weddings, fills Ivy League dorms and blares from cycling studios in wealthy suburbs. Teenagers worldwide stream the music their parents once were warned about. In the 1980s, hip-hop albums felt like contraband. I used to sneak 2 Live Crew into my grandmother’s truck, listening nervously with the engine off, worried I’d drain the battery and get caught. The music felt risky—not because it was dangerous, but because adults treated it as such.
What began in the 1970s at DJ Kool Herc’s Bronx block parties is now a global economic force. It dominates U.S. music streaming and anchors a multibillion-dollar market spanning music, fashion, advertising and media. Yet for all its reach, we still lack an empirical answer to a basic question: How has hip hop affected the lives of those most exposed to it?
Answering that requires more than moralizing. It requires measurement—what people actually heard, how the content evolved, and whether exposure changed real-world outcomes.
Part of the reason we still lack a clear answer is ideological. Many critics decided long ago what they wanted the answer to be. Geraldo Rivera claimed in 2015 that hip hop had done more damage to black Americans over the previous decade than racism—a view echoed, in softer form, by educators and civil-rights leaders who argue that lyrics glorifying violence, misogyny, defiance of authority and the casual use of the nation’s most notorious racial slur must inevitably shape behavior. Defenders are just as certain in the opposite direction. Artists and fans have long described hip hop as a form of journalism—“the CNN of the hood,” as Chuck D of Public Enemy famously put it—arguing that the music documents social reality rather than creates it.
The other reason is methodological. Culture is difficult to study, and clean natural experiments are rare. Teenagers who listen to aggressive music differ from those who don’t in ways that are hard to observe and harder to disentangle. In a widely cited laboratory study, Craig Anderson and his co-authors found that exposure to songs with violent lyrics can momentarily increase aggressive thoughts and feelings. But those short-run effects offer little guidance about long-run impacts on behavior, education or earnings.
Culture also responds to social change, which makes cause and effect easy to confuse. If crime rises at the same time as rap music becomes more popular, is the music driving behavior or responding to it? Even careful scholars can fall into this trap. In a National Academies volume, Ronald F. Ferguson notes that black-white test-score gaps narrowed substantially after the early 1970s but that progress for adolescents was uneven. He raises changes in “popular culture”—in particular, hip-hop culture—as a possible explanation. That move is tempting but dangerous: A time-series chart can’t tell you whether culture drove the change or merely moved alongside it.
In a TED Talk released on Monday, I describe a decadelong effort to measure hip hop’s impact. My research team and I assembled a data set tracking the genre’s diffusion from the late 1980s onward. We compiled exposure measures from virtually every U.S. radio station between 1985 and 2002 and from the Billboard Hot 100 from 2000 through 2024, then digitized station playlists using custom AI tools. The result is a detailed record of what different parts of the country heard in a given year. Using modern text analysis, we examined hundreds of thousands of songs and every word they contained.
We classify hip hop into four broad categories: street, conscious, mainstream and experimental. Street rap centers on hustling and street life—think Dr. Dre or Tupac Shakur. Conscious rap emphasizes political themes and social injustice. Kendrick Lamar, who won a Pulitzer Prize for his lyrics, is a modern exemplar. Mainstream rap is the most radio-friendly and broadly appealing, while experimental rap pushes stylistic boundaries.
What most people actually heard on the radio was far more conventional than the public debate at the time suggested. At its peak—from the late 1980s through the early 2000s—mainstream rap accounted for nearly 90% of rap on the radio. The harder-edged street rap that fuels much of the moral panic appeared far less frequently, though its share and cultural influence have grown since 2010.
Radio data also let us look inside the music. Over the past 40 years, hip-hop lyrics have grown substantially more explicit: profanity, violence and misogynistic language each increased roughly fivefold in our text-based measures, while references to drugs rose by approximately half as much. That growth in lyrical intensity helps explain why hip hop continues to provoke anxiety. But it also sharpens the question that matters most, at least to an economist: Does exposure to these lyrics have measurable effects on people’s lives?
To answer that, we looked at locations with varied hip-hop exposure—some places where it arrived early, others where it arrived later. Hip hop initially reached mass audiences through a subset of black radio stations, often those formatted as “urban contemporary.” Some cities gained early access through those stations. Others didn’t for reasons as mundane as geography, signal reach and local radio history.
That uneven rollout created natural variation in exposure. Using radio data and decades of census records, we estimated how much hip hop was played on the radio in each county in the U.S. over time. We then tested whether increases in hip-hop penetration were linked to changes in crime—and whether people exposed to more hip hop in their formative years experienced worse outcomes in education, employment, earnings, teen births and single parenthood.
The answer was striking. In our estimates, the effects hovered around zero, sometimes even slightly positive. Places with heavier rap exposure didn’t experience higher crime, lower educational attainment or weaker labor-market outcomes relative to trends elsewhere.
These findings may seem counterintuitive. Hip hop rose during a period of genuine crisis in many urban communities—the crack epidemic, surging violence and collapsing economic opportunity. But that timing is precisely why critics have so often misunderstood the genre. Hip hop spread fastest where hardship was already most severe, making it appear guilty by association. The music didn’t cause those conditions; it narrated them. Blaming hip hop for these realities is like faulting a photograph for its subject matter.
The broader lesson extends beyond music. When outcomes worsen, we are tempted to regulate expression rather than confront underlying issues. School bans, censorship campaigns and moral lectures target what is easiest to see. But culture, more often than not, is a lagging indicator—not a driver—of economic life.
If hip hop had never existed, the trajectory of the communities most exposed to it would have remained the same. Silencing the music wouldn’t have created jobs, stabilized families or reduced violence. If we want gentler lyrics, we should solve the problems they describe.
Mr. Fryer, a Journal contributor, is a professor of economics at Harvard, a founder of Equal Opportunity Ventures and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.
And now this:
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTjQP7OiE9g/?igsh=NTc4MTIwNjQ2YQ==
BRT – Nobody saw it coming!!
This time from James Solomon the new Mayor of Jersey City.
Jersey City was sold out says the new Mayor.
Jersey City faces a structural budget deficit of approximately $250 million. That’s roughly 28% of our entire operating budget.
-> By 2023, nearly 26% of city revenue came from one-time gimmicks—property sales, depleted reserves, emergency borrowing—that can’t be repeated
-> $20 million was spent on consultants for a museum that was never built
-> Over $3 million in overpaid taxes that they for forgot to get back
-> Health insurance was underbudgeted by over $34 million in 2025 alone
-> Six union contracts expired with no money set aside for back pay
-> The city’s reserves—our rainy day fund—are essentially gone
-> All three credit rating agencies have downgraded Jersey City in recent years
We didn’t create this problem. But we’re not going to hide from it either.”
I expect once our new Governor has her experts take a look at the NJ State finances we might her the same thing…..
Check the coils. Check the plugs. Check the fuel injectors.
America’s engine has a severe misfire.
Pizza Hut Closing 250 Locations As Sales Slide: What To Know
About 250 Pizza Hut restaurants are expected to close as the struggling chain faces slumping sales and an uncertain future.
😂
Boomer Deficits.
😂
Juice Box says:
February 4, 2026 at 7:48 pm
I expect once our new Governor has her experts take a look at the NJ State finances we might her the same thing…..
James Solomon the new Mayor of Jersey City.
Jersey City faces a structural budget deficit of approximately $250 million. That’s roughly 28% of our entire operating budget.
“We didn’t create this problem. But we’re not going to hide from it either.”
Sure ya’ did.
Your buddies and friends in Venture capital corporations.
And the boom ers.
Do Alex Pretti’s and Renee Good’s families have slander and libel cases against the executive branch and it’s administration?
No. The Federal Tort Claims Act bars claims of defamation against the federal government and federal officials acting within the scope of their position
A judge would find that a statement, press conference, etc. about a national event is 100% within their job description. And a claim that the content of those statements was defamatory is precisely what’s barred by the FTCA. It’s bullshit and I agree with you morally, but I don’t see any other conclusion legally.
That law was written before anyone thought it was at all reasonable to think an elected politician would deliberately slander an American citizen, much less after that same government just murdered him. Unfortunately that means they can’t be pursued if the law is changed, but the law definitely needs to change.
I have been moving my kids over to SOFi and hit my first issue. I tried to set them up with a Roth IRA. They wont do it as they are not set up for the FINRA reporting.
Off we go to Vanguard.
Phoenix – Are we still on Minnesota? That ship has sailed and they are withdrawing. I read ICE is here in NJ now and well our NEW Governor has been making noise about Trump in the Media. Look there are about the 600,000 undocumented immigrants in New Jersey way more than Minnesota. I hope you got your whistle because you cannot have a sidearm in these parts unless you want the local PoPo to fill you full of lead.
We are next…
Prove me wrong…
Phoenix – re: “elected politician would deliberately slander an American citizen”
Where have you been? Dead people cannot sue for defamation. They are dead….
A nice piece on the 5 year old that was held.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/02/03/books/judge-ruling-liam-conejo-ramos-analysis.html
Fab – Would you gamble on minor league baseball? FINRA fined SoFi recently.
Seriously SOFI is public because of a SPAC merger.
Yeah it’s cheaper but I will lump my hard earned money with a TBTF.
Juice: FINRA fine over AML issues, CIP . A good friend of mine is in there now doing a revamp.
Fab – There were tens of thousands of Liams arrested and deported over the last two decades.
It only seems to matter now because Orange Man Bad.
Here is just one highlight from the previous administration. I am not saying it’s wrong or right..Just realize the laws need to be changed and what is actually necessary to do that. Hint it’s not whistle blowing…
“In a five-month period in FY 2022 alone, almost one third of immigration court cases initiated by the Biden administration–more than 80,000 in all–were against children, over 30,000 of whom were under the age of 5, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC).”
https://law.ucla.edu/news/no-fair-day-damning-new-report-reveals-biden-administrations-unlawful-treatment-children-immigration-courts
Off to Edinburgh next week, hopefully the weather will hold up, but doubtful, as February is pretty dismal over there. But the pubs are warm and cozy. And Edinburgh is a cool city. Business stuff to take care of. Interesting and historic times over there right now.
Juice: People forget , Obama was called the great deporter.
3b – I am not putting my money in a bank that does not exist. How can I go and protest when my money is all gone?
Total deposits at SOFI (mostly direct deposits) of $38B… pocket change..
Concerning news…They are going all in on guess what Refi and home loans..
SoFi Technologies reported a 95% year-over-year growth in home loan volume in Q4 2025, $4.5 billion targeting refi and other home loans.
Hey guess what guys I found my new short..
3b – People forget the last crash and the reasons why…
Keep your eyes on the leverage…..and beware the ides of March.
Juice, the difference and what the Judge is pointing out the Due Process vs quotas.
If we lose Due Process the republic is over.
Chi – That hip hop story? The author?
Well in his bio he says he has set out on his career to understand and quantify the problem of the black achievement gap in America. I gather his research although incomplete and preliminary might have some postulates. Haven’t seen those yet. We can cross off Hip Hop based on the article posted. I am sure he spent allot of time researching it and coming to the conclusion it has no effect on outcomes.
All I can really think or say is I really look forward to reading his future writings.
Fab – I have to again mention reading comprehension? Did they not get their day in court?
“immigration court cases”
What Due Process did the Biden administration skip for deporting tens of thousands of children under the age of 5?
Juice: I just bought the stick solely on a whim as Lib recommended it, something I would not normally do. I agree with you I don’t have money in their bank. I agree with you, but from a stock perspective based, I have done quite nicely on it. I do think it will probably do well after this pullback, unless it all falls apart which is possible.
Brad Karp a prominent Democratic fundraiser and Chairman of Paul Weiss has stepped down as Chairman of the firm over Epstein file revelation.
SOfi for my kid makes sense as I want him to get away from Bricks and Mortar
Its all FDIC insured so they should be good.
You vs Lib should be fun. We haven’t had a divergence of opinion like that since Chi and JJ arguing over Puerto Rican Electricity bonds. JJ needed one coupon to be in the money.
Juice, yes they did, why did they need the day in court. They shouldn’t have been in the court in the first place.
3b – I have made lots of money on Tesla but I don’t own one. I am however tempted to dip my feet in and buy one as well I test drove their latest and greatest model and I know now for sure Full Self Driving is real…Yes I know I know Elon is a Nazi but they gave us space rockets too. Look folks I never have to steer or apply the accelerator or brakes on my car ever again for the low low price of $100 a month. I can instead focus on my social media posts and talk incessantly about the meaning of my life’s self importance however shallow it is, but to me will be pure enjoyment.
Dare I call it Nivana?
3b,
Enjoy Edinburgh, I love it. I spend three weeks in my college days working a show at the Fringe.
You are a history buff, make sure you do a quick side trip to Rosslyn. Its about 30 mins outside the city.
Fab – So we agree the laws should be changed. Progress!!!
It’s not simple however, as blowing a whistle won’t cover it. You need to petition your representatives in DC.. Calling the local office for Congress or Senate is the most effective way. They will take your call as well you are paying for it..
Fab; I have been to Edinburgh before on pleasure, this time is business, for most of the trip. I will be back again in the spring for more business, and in April for pleasure. I much prefer Edinburgh to Glasgow. I like Inverness too.
Juice: I don’t hate Elon, or anyone else because of their politics, and while the guy is way out there in general. He is a genius, and has done some amazing things, and no one can take that away from him.
Actually August to Edinburgh for pleasure after my Spring trip.
Juice, I agree the laws should be followed. That’s not what ICE are doing.
Looks like the whole SpaceX xAI disclosure yesterday just a deflection from him showing up in the files.
Damage Control?
Fab – again why now? This is not new just ask Pumpkin as his old man was deported.
Fact is as soon as the next democratic leadership takes over those children they deported will be forgotten, just ask Elian Gonzales.
Research studying the effects of cannabis on the brain has often focused on adolescents, but a new study from CU Anschutz researchers looks at population-level impacts of cannabis usage on the brain in older adults.
“More older adults are using cannabis. It’s more widely available and is being used for different reasons than in younger folks – such as for sleep and chronic pain,” said Anika Guha, PhD, a clinical psychologist and faculty research associate in the Department of Psychiatry at CU Anschutz. “Plus, people are living longer. We have to be asking, ‘What are the long-term effects of cannabis use as we continue to age?’”
The research team found that cannabis usage in older adults was generally associated with larger volumes in several brain regions and better cognitive function in adults ages 40 to 77. Guha said she was surprised by the extent of the positive findings. But she emphasized that cannabis use studies are difficult with often unknown variables, noting the constituents and potency of the cannabis products study subjects used were unknown.
Key points:
Research found larger brain volumes and better cognitive function among middle age and older adults who used cannabis, especially in moderate use cases.
The areas of the brain studied include learning and memory, processing speed, attention and executive function, traditionally thought of at odds with cannabis consumption.
However, another brain region saw lower volumes – suggesting the impact cannabis has on the brain is complex and nuanced, requiring further investigation.
“We’re really interested in thinking about both the benefits and risks and understanding this drug in the context of mental health, dementia and more,” said Guha. “There’s so much more to explore.”
In the following Q&A, Guha details the study’s findings, the complexities of studying relationships between brain function and cannabis, and why nuanced discussion around studying the drug is critical.
holy shite
https://www.reddit.com/r/CrazyFuckingVideos/comments/1qw9fzo/less_than_20_seconds_to_see_toxic_smoke_less_than/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button