Wrong title – We already made the big bet

Posted on October 10, 2011 by grim

From the WSJ:

U.S. Gambles With Mortgage Retreat

hree years after virtually nationalizing the U.S. mortgage market, the government has embarked on a pullback to see whether private industry picks up the slack.

Some people in the housing industry worry that Washington’s move will cause fresh pain in many regions where demand has yet to recover amid the sluggish economy.

At issue are the loan limits that Congress expanded in 2008, allowing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy mortgages that exceeded the national cap of $417,000.

When the mortgage market melted down four years ago and sent private mortgage investors fleeing, interest rates rose sharply on “jumbo” mortgages—those too large for backing by Fannie, Freddie or agencies such as the Federal Housing Administration. That accelerated home-price declines in high-end markets throughout California and the Northeast, where many pricey homes couldn’t be bought with a government-backed loan.

To stem the fallout in prices, Congress raised the loan caps to as high as $729,750 in markets such as Los Angeles and New York. It then passed a series of one-year extensions to keep the higher limits in place. But this year, Congress and the Obama administration opted against an extension.

As a result, the limits in hundreds of counties fell by 10% or more on Oct. 1. For loans backed by Fannie and Freddie, the limits declined to between $417,000 and $625,500 in about 200 counties.

More worrisome to real-estate agents are declines in the FHA limits, which fell to between $271,050 and $625,500 in 600 counties. Those changes are causing heartburn because the FHA allows buyers to make down payments of just 3.5%, and it has financed as many as half of all home purchases in recent quarters.

Policy makers allowed the limits to fall because they want private companies to hold more mortgage risk, and dialing down loan limits is one way to carve out space for those investors. Fannie, Freddie, and the FHA currently back nine in 10 new mortgages. Taxpayers already are on the hook for $141 billion in losses at Fannie and Freddie, and the FHA’s reserves have plunged to razor-thin levels.

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 88 Comments

Dirt cheap money still not spurring the market

Posted on October 7, 2011 by grim

From the Courier News:

30-year mortgage rate falls to 3.94%

Depressed by investors seeking safe-havens, the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell this week to its lowest level ever, 3.94 percent, mortgage company Freddie Mac reported Thursday.

The decline could allow more buyers to afford homes and bolster the dormant housing market. And it could allow more owners to refinance, lowering their monthly mortgage payments and giving them more money to spend elsewhere in the economy.

Consider a homeowner who owes $250,000 and is paying 5.09 percent on a 30-year fixed mortgage that he or she got in 2010. Refinancing the loan at 3.94 percent now could save him or her more than $2,000 a year.

For example, someone who got a $200,000, 30-year mortgage at fixed at 5.25 percent last year was paying about $1,100 per month. That same person today can get a 20-year mortgage at 3.75 percent for $1,185. And if that person wants to go to a 15-year mortgage with a fixed rate of 3.25 percent, they would pay about $1,400. The attraction of the 15-year loan is that unlike longer-term mortgages, even on the first payment of a 15-year loan, more of that money would go to paying off the principal than the interest. Amity makes loans to borrowers throughout the state.
…
“The comeback is not here yet,” said Christopher Randall, a vice president at Real Estate Mortgage Network, a mortgage lender in Edison. “We are seeing more activity, but it’s not rampant considering where rates are.”
…
Brian Jennings, president of Princeton Home Mortgage, the in-house mortgage company for Weidel Realtors, and Home Capital Network, the in-house mortgage company for Prudential New Jersey Properties, said that there is money available to all sorts of borrowers, but they need to understand that not everybody qualifies for the lowest rates. People with poor credit scores or people with low down payments cannot expect to get as good a rate as someone with a FICO credit score above 800 points and a large down payment because low scores and small down payments represent higher risks to lenders. For example, a person with a credit score between 720 and 739 will pay more for the same loan than someone with a credit score of 800 points. Or, a person with a credit score of 800 points and a 40 percent down payment will pay less for a loan than someone who only has a 10 percent down payment.

“We close loans every day for people with all sorts of credit,” Jennings said. “We have products for people with lower scores, but lenders are taking a bigger risk with them, so they will charge a higher rate.”

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate | 81 Comments

Bailout attempt #436 – Now we’re getting interesting

Posted on October 6, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Bill allows tax-free use of retirement funds for mortgage payments

A bill introduced in Congress would allow struggling homeowners to withdraw funds from their retirement accounts tax free to pay their mortgage.

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) and Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) submitted the Home Act Wednesday. Isakson also co-sponsored the Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) bill that would eliminate fees and loan-to-value caps for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac borrowers looking to refinance.

Borrowers could pull as much as $50,000 from their retirement account or one-half of the current value of their account, whichever is smaller, and avoid the typical 10% tax penalty. The cap is a lifetime cap, and does not expire on a particular date. Borrowers are eligible to make multiple withdrawals until they reach the cap.

The money must be put directly toward the mortgage within 120 days of withdrawal.

“This bill will help Americans who risk foreclosure use their own resources to make their mortgage payment on time without being penalized by the federal government,” Isakson said. “I firmly believe that economic recovery in this country will not occur until the housing market bounces back.”
…
“This legislation will simply place taxpayers who have saved responsibly on the same level as those who have not, all the while reducing foreclosures, eliminating red tape and accomplishing a goal that all members of Congress can support — keeping Americans in their homes,” Graves said.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 123 Comments

What if NYC really is special?

Posted on October 5, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

New York Beats London as Top Spot for Real-Estate Investment

New York overtook London as the No. 1 destination for real-estate investment for the first time since 2007 after improved access to financing spurred more U.S. deals, Cushman & Wakefield Inc. said in a report today.

Investments grew 166 percent to $29.7 billion in the New York area in the 12 months through August, compared with a year earlier. Investment in greater London increased 2.4 percent to $27.2 billion, according to the report based on data compiled by the New York-based broker and Real Capital Analytics Inc.

Buyers are drawn to cities like New York and London because of a greater focus on the “biggest and best,” Cushman said in the report. The trend will continue in the next six months, it said.

Outside of the U.S. real estate lending tends to be tighter and is still “very focused on prime, leased assets only,” Cushman said in the report.

Chicago, New York, Boston and Atlanta made up four of the five fastest growing property investment markets by volume, the report said. Frankfurt and Germany’s Rhine-Main area ranked fourth, with growth of 126 percent.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 100 Comments

Average NJ Foreclosure – 708 days late

Posted on October 4, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Homes in Foreclosure Average 611 Days Late on Payments

U.S. homeowners facing foreclosure were a record 611 days late paying their mortgages on average as legal disputes delayed bank repossessions, Lender Processing Services Inc. said today.

That was up from an average 599 days in July and 478 days in August 2010 for homes that had received a notice of foreclosure and weren’t sold or repossessed by banks, according to the Jacksonville, Florida-based real estate data company.

“You’ve got this bunching up in the later stages of the process,” Herb Blecher, senior vice president for analytics at Lender Processing Services, said in a telephone interview. “The bottlenecks are still there.”

The time to resolve mortgage delinquencies has grown from a year ago, when banks delayed filings after claims of “robo- signing,” or pushing through documents that weren’t verified, spurred investigations by attorneys general in all 50 states.

Foreclosures take longest in so-called judicial states, which require court approval to seize properties, led by New York, where the average home was in the process for 767 days. It was followed by Florida with 757 days, New Jersey with 708, Hawaii with 681 and Washington, D.C., with 676, Lender Procession said. The shortest averages were in Wyoming at 398 days, Nebraska at 407, Alaska at 411, Idaho at 416 and Arizona at 418.

Posted in Foreclosures, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 152 Comments

RealtyTrac’s Sharga calls bottom (and gets a job at a mortgage company)

Posted on October 3, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Housing market hit bottom: former RealtyTrac exec

The U.S. housing market hit bottom this year and will remain flat until 2014, when it will start to slowly recover, said Rick Sharga, an executive vice president with Carrington Mortgage Holdings.

“We’re looking at a catfish recovery,” he told attendees at the Asian Real Estate Association of America conference in San Francisco Friday, saying the market will bump along the bottom for some time before starting to revive.

More than a million foreclosure actions that should have taken place this year have not yet moved forward, and that delay pushes a resolution of the housing market’s problems into next year and beyond, he said, citing data from RealtyTrac, where Sharga served as a senior vice president until this week.

“We can’t expect to see home price appreciation until we work through these distressed assets,” he said.

Banks hold about 800,000 REOs, and three-quarters of those are not listed for sale, said Sharga. Another 800,000 homes are in foreclosure and 1.5 million loans are delinquent.

This “shadow inventory” will slow down a housing market recovery, he said, as monthly foreclosure numbers will remain elevated through 2012 and REO inventories will stay high through 2013.

Posted in Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery | 94 Comments

Pending home sales disappoint in August

Posted on September 30, 2011 by grim

From the Wall Street Journal:

Home-Sales Index Shows More Clouds on Horizon

An index that tracks contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell 1.2% in August, clouding an already-bleak outlook for the housing sector, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

The index of pending home sales, which reflects contracts signed but deals not yet closed, fell to 88.6 from 89.7 in July. That is higher than August 2010—but last year’s levels plummeted after a federal tax credit for homebuyers expired.

The Northeast saw the biggest declines, which the trade group partly blamed on Hurricane Irene delaying deals. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun also cited tight credit conditions and Americans’ hesitance to form households, such as college graduates and new entrants to the work force still living with their parents, amid an uncertain economy.

Citing record-low interest rates and rock-bottom home prices, economists say the housing market should be much further along in recovering. “It’s a pretty good time to get involved in the market, but a lot of people are unable to take advantage of this situation,” said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics, a macroeconomic consultancy.

Mr. Dales partly blamed the weak labor market and stagnant income growth. “There also is a general decrease in the desire of people to own a home,” he said. “Under normal times, the housing market would rebound very quickly. But the legacy of recession and the financial crisis means that won’t happen.”

The housing market has remained sluggish despite mortgage rates that have fallen to their lowest levels in more than 60 years. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.01% for the week ended Thursday, according to a survey by Freddie Mac.

Also from the WSJ:

Behind the Numbers: Pending Sales Prompt Concern

Here’s what industry watchers had to say:

Joshua Shapiro, economist, MFR Inc.: “In absolute terms this is a very depressed level, and with prices in most areas either still declining or flat, there is little incentive for buyers to be aggressive. Therefore, the overhang of unsold homes (particularly with huge amounts either in the foreclosure process or soon to be in it) is likely to persist for a prolonged period of time.”

Dan Oppenheim, builder analyst, Credit Suisse: “It is still clear that heightened economic concerns are taking a toll on already-fragile homebuyer confidence, offsetting the benefits of favorable affordability. Additionally, our checks suggest the intention to keep rates at low levels for a prolonged period and little expectation for a near-term rebound in home prices is leading to a lack of urgency among buyers.”

Adam Rudiger, builder analyst, Wells Fargo: “Despite very attractive mortgage rates (the average Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate in August was 4.27% versus 4.55% in July and 4.43% in August 2010), turnover in the existing market remains depressed.”

Michael Rehaut, builder analyst, J.P. Morgan: “We continue to believe that housing demand effectively remains near its cyclical trough and is unlikely to retest its [fourth-quarter 2008/first-quarter 2009] lows, absent another material recession. Moreover, we believe supply continues to remain manageable, as existing homes for sale are 22% below peak levels and foreclosures continue to liquidate at a moderate pace.”

Posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 202 Comments

Fed out of bullets?

Posted on September 29, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

Bernanke calls for more housing help from Washington

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivered a speech Tuesday afternoon on emerging market economies, but it was his remarks about the state of the still-ailing U.S. economy in a Q&A after the speech that garnered the most attention.
…
The Fed Chairman also called on Congress to do more to help boost a U.S. housing market that remains, at best, in the doldrums. Bernanke said “strong housing policies to help the housing market recover” were needed to advance a tepid U.S. economy, along with a focus on jobs and solving budget imbalances.

More than 6.3 million U.S. homes are 30 days or more behind on mortgage payments or in foreclosure, according to mortgage services firm Lender Processing Services (LPS: 14.59 0.00%). And while housing prices are improving month-over-month, prices remain well below year-ago levels — the most recent Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller housing price index found home prices down 4.1% in July across 20 of the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.

Mortgage rates have touched historic lows in recent weeks, after the Fed introduced plans on Sept. 21 to buy $400 billion of Treasury bonds in an effort to lower long-term borrowing costs. The Fed also said it would invest reinvest principal payments from agency debt into additional agency mortgage-backed securities investments. But with jobs a looming concern, questions remain as to just how many borrowers will be able to take advantage of lower rates.

Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, hinted Wednesday in his own remarks at what sort of policy options might best for housing — arguing that new policies were needed to allow underwater homeowners to refinance their loans.

“Clearly getting more money into the hands of homeowners who spend it could help to fuel GDP growth,” he said. “This would reduce one of the impediments to a more significant effect from the monetary policy actions taken to date.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 148 Comments

July Case Shiller

Posted on September 28, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices in U.S. Cities Fell 4.1% in Year Ended July

Home prices in the U.S. declined less than forecast in July from a year earlier, a sign bank delays in processing foreclosures may have temporarily slowed the slump in real-estate values.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 4.1 percent from July 2010, after a revised 4.4 percent drop in the 12 months to June, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News projected a 4.4 percent decline. Values were little changed in July from the prior month after adjusting for seasonal changes, the same as in June.
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Estimates for the price change from July 2010 ranged from declines of 4 percent to 5.5 percent, according to the Bloomberg survey. The Case-Shiller measure is based on a three-month average, which means the July data were influenced by transactions in June and May. July’s year-to-year drop was the smallest since March.

Prices in the 20 cities rose 0.9 before adjusting for seasonal changes in July after climbing 1.2 percent in June.

“This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected,” David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said in a statement. “We are still far from a sustained recovery.”

From the Record:

Home prices in region down 3.7 percent

Home prices in the New York metropolitan area, which includes North Jersey, dropped 3.7 percent in the year ended in July, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index reported Tuesday. Nationally, prices slipped 4.1 percent in that period.

From June to July, however, prices ticked up, both nationally and in the region.

What it means: Home values nationally have returned to the levels of summer 2003, while in the area, prices have returned to the levels of April 2004. Values have dropped about 31 percent nationally and 22 percent regionally since their peaks in mid-2006.
…
In Bergen County, the median price of a single-family home was $460,000 in July, down 7.8 percent from a year earlier, while the number of sales rose 15 percent. In Passaic County, the median price dropped 7.2 percent to $280,275, while the number of sales rose 2.3 percent.

These numbers are from the New Jersey and Garden State multiple listing services and reflect the mix of homes sold during the month. Case-Shiller does not break down sales by county, but it is considered a more reliable barometer because it tracks the value of the same properties over time.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

Renting perceptions rapidly changing

Posted on September 26, 2011 by grim

From HousingWire:

NMHC: Housing policy must adapt to growing renter population

The United States needs to shift its housing policy to recognize the rising number of Americans opting for rental housing and reduce incentives that prioritize homeownership, according to the National Multi Housing Council.

“We have a tremendous opportunity to create thriving and sustainable communities,” said council President Doug Bibby in a presentation to the National Apartment Summit in Tysons Corner, Va., earlier this week. “But only if we change our thinking about rental housing and renters.”

There is a growing disconnect between America’s housing needs and current housing policy, he told the group.

“The U.S. is on the cusp of fundamental change in our housing dynamics as changing demographics and changing housing preferences drive more people away from the typical suburban house and toward the type of housing that rental housing offers,” Bibby said.

“Families with children made up more than half of households decades ago, but they made up only one-third of households in 2000, and by 2025, they will be closer to one-fifth,” he said.

More than 14% of U.S. households live in apartments, and in this decade, renters could make up more than half of all new households as their ranks swell by more than 7 million, according to the council, a research and lobbying group for the apartment industry.

Bibby argued housing policy should change to de-emphasize homeownership, an area where he said incentives “overwhelmingly benefit the wealthy and distort the economy by encouraging people to over-invest in housing.”

Posted in Employment, National Real Estate | 240 Comments

“Suzanne researched this, this listing is special”

Posted on September 23, 2011 by grim

From the NY Times:

One Town, but Two Markets

OVER the last six months or so, it seems several New Jersey towns have developed symptoms of split personality — at least when it comes to their real estate markets.

Take Montclair, for instance: the median sales price has been declining, as anyone can clearly see from looking at the downward pitch of the line graph updated weekly on many brokers’ Web pages by Altos Research. But decline means different things in different places. In the area often called Upper Montclair (ZIP code 07043), the descent to $615,000 from $700,000 was herky-jerky, up and down, between April 1 and the middle of September, according to Altos. But in the rest of town (ZIP code 07042), the median skied nonstop down a steep mountain: $700,000 all the way to $400,000.

Likewise, median prices harmonized in Millburn Township and its Short Hills section — another area with its own ZIP code — while clearly singing different parts. Millburn/Short Hills is one of the very few communities in the state where sales values are rising again, according to Karen Eastman Bigos, a broker with the Towne Realty Group.

The median for the township rose to $620,000 from $570,000 from April 1 to mid-September. Over the same period, the median for Short Hills rose to $1.6 million from $1.5 million. That means property in Short Hills escalated more in value — by about a percentage point — even though it is more than twice as expensive.

“How do we explain these things?” asked Ken Baris, the president of Jordan Baris Realty, a company that recently developed a “hyperlocal” computer system for analyzing price trends by school district or neighborhood. “Local, local, local — there is no other word but local in real estate.”
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In Montclair, where there is a concerted emphasis on thinking of the town as one diverse whole — children are bused to “magnet” schools, and the moniker “Upper” is discouraged as divisive — several agents resisted comparisons of trends on the two sides of town.

“Sometimes people come in saying they only want to buy in the one ZIP code, 07043,” said Linda Grotenstein, an agent at Coldwell Banker. “I usually find they have a misunderstanding of what the ZIP codes imply.”

The housing stock is more homogeneous in the northern half: mostly well-groomed Victorians with three to six bedrooms. The south end has far greater range: everything from run-down, run-of-the-mill triplexes on narrow lots to peerless mansions on manicured grounds, in the “estate section.”

In fact, by Mr. Baris’s reckoning, the estate section in the southern part of Montclair has kept overall average sales value afloat. It had 42 listings this year, and 18 houses sold, at a median price of $1.218 million, 31 percent more than last year.

“If you took out the estate section,” Mr. Baris said, “Montclair would have depreciated as a town.”
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In Millburn/Short Hills, Ms. Bigos ascribes the huge price disparity to the teardown craze that swept Short Hills starting in the late 1990s.

“That is when the spread started to widen,” said Ms. Bigos, a lifelong resident of Short Hills. “All the new houses going up doubled and tripled in value.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 155 Comments

Upside surprise for home sales in August

Posted on September 22, 2011 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased More Than Forecast

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose more than anticipated in August as investors scooped up distressed properties with cash.

The 7.7 percent increase left purchases at a five-month high 5.03 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The August pace compares with a peak of 7.08 million in 2005, before the housing boom turned into a subprime-mortgage bust that dragged the economy into an 18-month recession.

“Housing’s been down for so long, we should take whatever good news we can get,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose forecast was among the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “Interest rates are low and pricing is attractive and people are responding.”
…
The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 4.75 million rate. Forecasts in the survey of 74 economists ranged from 4.5 million to 4.99 million.

From Reuters:

US Aug existing home sales up but outlook still grim

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to their highest level in five months as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into a still moribund market.

The data did little to change the view that housing, hobbled by a burst bubble which triggered a major recession, will not help the economy much anytime soon.

Sales climbed 7.7 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

“This housing market is still very distressed,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

“We have to get a lot of good news for a meaningful turnaround in the housing market,” he said.

The outlook for housing prices remains grim. A survey by MacroMarkets LLC showed economists expect home prices to rise just 1.1 percent a year through 2015.

From CNBC:

Existing-Home Sales Jump 7.7%, Well Above Forecasts

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to the fastest annual pace since March as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into the market, the National Association of Realtors said.

ales climbed 7.7 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the NAR said Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

Rising rents are also helping Americans decide to buy homes, the NAR said.

“Favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations,” Lawrence Yun, chief NAR economist, said in a statement.

Yun said the increase in sales came despite some disruptions from Hurricane Irene, which battered much of the East Coast at the end of the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 1.4 percent to a 4.71-million-unit pace. Compared to August 2010, sales were 18.6 percent higher.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 119 Comments

2015? That isn’t so bad…

Posted on September 21, 2011 by grim

From the WSJ:

Home Forecast Calls for Pain

Economists, builders and mortgage analysts are predicting the weakened U.S. economy will depress housing prices for years, restraining consumer spending, pushing more homeowners into foreclosure and clouding prospects for a sustained recovery.

Home prices are expected to drop 2.5% this year and rise just 1.1% annually through 2015, according to a recent survey of more than 100 economists to be released Wednesday. Prices have already fallen 31.6% from their 2005 peak, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller 20-city index.

If the economists’ forecast is accurate, it means housing faces a lost decade in which home prices recover just a fraction of what was lost between 2005 and 2015, leaving millions of homeowners with little, if any, equity in their homes. The survey was conducted for MacroMarkets LLC, a financial technology company co-founded by Yale University economist Robert Shiller.

The housing bust has chilled consumer spending—the largest single driver of the U.S. economy—with eroding home equity contributing to the so-called reverse wealth effect that prompts people to spend cautiously because they feel poorer.

One in five Americans with a mortgage owes more than their home is worth, and $7 trillion of homeowners’ equity has been lost in the bust. Homeowners’ equity as a share of home values has fallen to 38.6% from 59.7% in 2005.

“With all of the economic turmoil, both domestic and international, there’s not much that points to an improving housing market at any point in the near future,” said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., the U.S.’s seventh-largest builder by deliveries.

While home prices aren’t falling at anywhere near the pace of 2008, one worry is that even modest declines become self-reinforcing, pushing more homeowners underwater and exacerbating the downdraft caused by more foreclosures.
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Rising home prices traditionally lead homeowners to spend more money, even during periods of economic sluggishness, creating jobs.

But “that cycle can cut the other way,” said James Parrott, a top White House housing adviser. “As the value of a family’s home drops, that can really go from a lever of savings to a drain on that savings.”

Those concerns prompted the White House earlier this year to begin canvassing experts on how to attack the excess inventory of distressed properties and troubled mortgages.
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Housing markets are also in bad shape because would-be first-time homeowners have retreated amid grim economic news. Many current homeowners, meanwhile, don’t have enough equity to move, chilling the crucial “trade-up” market. That has left housing heavily dependent on investors buying homes at discounts with cash.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 140 Comments

It really is different this time

Posted on September 20, 2011 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

How the real estate market has changed the responsibilities of real estate agents

Emotions run high when buying or selling a house, particularly in today’s real estate market. Sellers feel like they’re practically giving away their houses and may not have the finances to meet a buyer’s demands for repairs. Buyers feel they are the brave ones and should be getting their money’s worth after making such a major financial commitment.

As a result, real estate agents say, their jobs are as much therapist and life counselor as it is staging and showing a property.

“It used to be a tell-and-sell attitude versus the listening and educating and guiding that we do today,” said Roberta Baldwin, an agent-owner of the Keller Williams NJ Metro Group in Montclair. In the height of the market, an agent would host an open house and offers would be in by the end of the weekend. Realtors and clients didn’t develop as close a relationship with each other. Personal finances were not discussed because it was assumed people would make a profit if they were selling and were flush if they were buying.

Now, that has all changed.

“Most of my time is spent fielding phone calls and also calling other people and making sure they’re okay — emotionally okay — and making sure their financial situation is holding,” Baldwin said. “It’s very, very different.”

Baldwin said her heart sinks when someone calls and says a spouse lost a job. “They literally ask you, ‘What should I do?,’ ” she said. The questions come so often, she now brings up the issue at staff meetings with her team and discusses how best to handle the situations.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 116 Comments

Irene hits Jersey residents a second time

Posted on September 19, 2011 by grim

From the Record:

Tax hikes, service cuts likely as Irene costs towns $61M

Hurricane or not, Irene is on track to becoming one of the most expensive natural disasters in North Jersey’s history, with preliminary estimates from the region’s municipal governments totaling in the tens of millions of dollars, public records show.

With damage yet to be tallied in many of the hardest-hit towns, Bergen County’s public agencies had reported more than $19.3 million in damaged public buildings, buckled roadways, garbage pickup and other government expenses by late last week, according to numbers compiled by The Record. And those costs will be at least partly passed onto residents and taxpayers in the form of higher property taxes, service cuts or loss of use to public facilities that are not immediately repaired, officials in several towns said.

The estimated damage amounted to nearly $42 million in Passaic County — where half of the costs were in Paterson and tallies were almost certain to rise because they had been calculated while many roadways were underwater, Passaic County officials said.

Those costs are in addition to the $199.8 million in damage to business and private properties reported so far in Bergen and Passaic counties. All costs will likely change as Federal Emergency Management Agency officials visit local governments to compile official tallies starting this week.

“This is a catastrophic loss for all the government agencies in the county, and the citizens as well,” said Sgt. Barry Leventhal of the Bergen County Office of Emergency Management. He added that state and federal officials would work with municipalities to minimize the impact to taxpayers and private homeowners.
…
State and federal officials said they were doing everything they could to help local governments recover, but some officials said they were skeptical of receiving enough money to completely buffer taxpayers from the burden of paying for the storm.
…
Local officials said the state’s committed contribution fell far below the help they received after Floyd in 1999.

That year, the state contributed $20 million in aid for residents and businesses, $20 million for counties and $10 million for programs to reduce the possibility of future floods.

Without that kind of help, officials in some of the hardest hit towns said they would have no choice but to prioritize repairs, consider sharp cutbacks on spending or turn to property owners to make up the difference.

“It’s going to mean higher taxes,” said Rochelle Park Mayor Joseph Scarpa, whose town has reported more than $800,000 in municipal damage from Irene, a figure that did not include debris removal.

“If we’re not getting the money from insurance or FEMA where else are we going to get the money from?” Scarpa said.

Posted in Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 125 Comments