From the NY Times Walk-thru blog:
Hats off to writer Damon Darlin for taking the time to compile the NAR estimates released over the past few years. Here is some of the article:
What actually happened in 2002: There were a total of 5.6 million existing-home sales in 2002, up 5 percent from the previous record of 5.3 million in 2001.
NAR was off by 6.4 percent.
What actually happened in 2003: There were a total of 6.1 million existing-home sales in 2003, up 9.6 percent from the previous record of 5.6 million in 2002.
NAR was off by 14.2 percent.
What actually happened in 2004: Existing single-family home sales surged in 2004, well above the previous record set in 2003, according to the National Association of Realtors. There were a total of 6.7 million existing-home sales in 2004, up 9.4 percent from 2003. This is the fourth consecutive annual record.
NAR was off by 14 percent.
What actually happened in 2005: There were 7.1 million existing-home sales in all of 2005, up 4.2 percent from 2004.
NAR was off by 9.6 percent, and guessed the direction wrong.
So what have we learned?