Will AI destroy the housing market?

Posted on March 1, 2026 by grim

From Benzinga:

AI Boom May Be Creating Hidden Risks In Housing Market

Artificial intelligence is driving massive productivity gains — but it may also be creating hidden risks in one of the most important pillars of the financial system: housing.

Mortgage markets rely on a simple assumption — borrowers will remain employed and continue earning stable incomes. AI-driven job disruption could challenge that foundation.

In their recent note, Citrini Research warns that the rapid displacement of white-collar workers is forcing markets to confront an uncomfortable question: “Are prime mortgages money good?”

Unlike previous housing crises driven by speculative lending or interest rate shocks, this potential risk stems from structural changes in employment itself.

White-collar workers account for a disproportionate share of economic activity. According to the report, the top 10% of earners account for more than half of all consumer spending, making their financial stability critical to housing markets.

As AI replaces higher-paying jobs, many displaced workers are forced into lower-paying roles, reducing their ability to sustain prior spending levels. Even borrowers who remain current on mortgage payments may cut discretionary spending to compensate for income uncertainty.

This creates a delayed but potentially powerful effect on housing demand and home prices.

The broader concern is structural. Mortgage underwriting models assume income stability over decades. AI disruption challenges that assumption.

As Citrini Research explains, many borrowers “borrowed against a future they can no longer afford to believe in.”

If AI continues to reshape labor markets, housing could become one of the most important transmission channels between technological disruption and financial stability.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 40 Comments

Overflow will save us all

Posted on February 27, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

NJ real estate market predicted to heat up. Here’s why

If you live here in NJ, this probably won’t surprise you at all.

A new real estate forecast says the housing markets most likely to heat up in 2026 include the outskirts of New York City.

That list specifically calls out Northern New Jersey right alongside Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Fairfield County, Connecticut.

In other words, once again, Jersey is the overflow valve for a lot of people.

The prediction is pretty simple. More companies are pulling people back into the office, at least part-time. So the “work from anywhere” dream is fading for a lot of folks. That means people still want space and sanity, but they also need to be close enough to commute. Enter New Jersey.

…And it’s not just about work.

A lot of New Yorkers are leaving the city because they’re exhausted by the politics, the quality-of-life issues, and yes, what some are calling the Mamdani factor. Whether it’s crime, schools, taxes, or just feeling like the city isn’t what it used to be, people are voting with their feet. And many of them are landing right here.

If you already own here, that probably means higher values. If you’re trying to buy, buckle up. More competition is coming, especially in commuter-friendly towns.

New Jersey keeps ending up in these “hot market” lists, not because we’re trendy, but because we’re practical. We sit right next to one of the biggest cities in the world, and we offer things that the city can’t like space and stability, and (even though we’re the most densely populated state), the breathing room.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Unrest | 221 Comments

Chi’s New Thread

Posted on February 26, 2026 by grim

As requested.

From the NYT:

The Housing Market Is Tilting Back Toward Buyers

Rukmini Callimachi, who covers real estate, polled five housing economists to report this story.

On the windswept coast of North Carolina, Ron Hertrich has spent months trying — and failing — to sell his parents’ 40-year-old beach house. He scrubbed off the old paint and repainted the walls a warm “shiitake beige.” He replaced the furniture, including a glass-top dining table with rattan legs, with something more modern.

When that didn’t work, he offered a $10,000 cash “incentive” that a prospective buyer could use as they pleased.

Despite all this, the condo — which sits 100 yards from the water line — has become a monument to the shifting tides of the real estate market. After just two showings in two months, his real estate agent advised him to take new pictures in an effort to relaunch the listing this spring.

The same thing happened hundreds of miles away in Atlanta, where Aimée Berry, 56, put her furniture in storage and lived in a perpetual state of readiness, only for a total of six people to come see her one-bedroom condo in six months.

“It was depressing,” she said, explaining that she too was advised to take her home off the market.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 63 Comments

Case Shiller Dips

Posted on February 25, 2026 by grim

From Housingwire:

Case-Shiller data shows real home price returns turned negative in 2025

Annual home price growth continued to cool at the end of 2025, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released on Tuesday. 

The national home price index came in at a reading of 327.36 in December, reflecting a 1.3% year-over-year increase, down from the 1.4% yearly increase recorded in November. On a monthly basis, prior to seasonal adjustment, the national index was down 0.3%. 

According to the release, inflation outpaced home price growth throughout the second half of 2025, reversing a decade-long trend of positive real returns on home prices. Overall, national home prices grew just 1.3% in 2025, marking the weakest full-year gain since 2011, when prices dropped 3.9%. Additionally, this is 5.3 percentage points below the 6.6% 10-year annual average. 

“Two structural forces have reshaped the market over recent years: mortgage rates and inflation. The 30-year mortgage rate closed 2025 at 6.2%, well above the 4.8% 10-year average and a sharp contrast to the 3.9% average that prevailed from 2016 through 2020,” Nicholas Godec, the head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement. “ Meanwhile, annual inflation for 2025 came in at 2.7% — modestly below the 3.1% 10-year average — but still outpaced home price appreciation by 1.4 percentage points, effectively eroding real home values for most owners. This marks a notable reversal: Over the prior decade, national home prices outpaced inflation by 3.7 percentage points annually, a dynamic that has quietly reversed, with real home price returns turning negative in June 2025.”

The 10-city index also recorded slower annual home price growth in December, jumping 1.9% on a yearly basis to 357.32, while the 20-city index rose 1.4% year-over-year, the same as a month prior, to a reading of 336.89. Prior to seasonal adjustment, both indexes were down 0.1% month-over-month. 

Of the 20 cities indexed, Chicago reported the highest annual price gain at 5.3% in December, followed by New York (5.1%) and Cleveland (4.0%). At the other end of the spectrum, Tampa reported the largest annual decline dropping 2.85%, followed by Denver (-2.06%) and Phoenix (-1.53%). 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 143 Comments

Philly still hot? Or is the market mix shifting?

Posted on February 23, 2026 by grim

From Bucks County Today:

Greater Philadelphia Tops National Housing Market Price Growth in January

Greater Philadelphia saw the strongest home price growth among 40 major metro areas in January, with prices rising 8.6 percent year over year, writes Ryan Mulligan for the Philadelphia Business Journal.

In January, the region’s median home price increased to $380,000, up from $350,000 a year earlier. According to a recent report from Homes.com, this growth is more than three times the national increase of 2.8 percent, with the national median sale price at $374,900.

The report follows Zillow’s prediction that the Philadelphia region would be one of the top ten housing markets this year.

However while home prices increased, the number of sales declined significantly compared with January of last year, with the housing market impacted by both the usual winter slowdown and low inventory levels.

Greater Philadelphia saw home sales decline by 8.6 percent in January compared to last year, with total sales dropping to 3,621 from 3,963 in January 2025. The month-to-month decrease was even steeper, falling 33.8 percent from December’s 5,471 sales.

Meanwhile, active listings rose 8.4 percent compared to a year ago, reaching around 10,000 at the end of January. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Philly | 132 Comments

Thank goodness NJ is so wealthy

Posted on February 22, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

Corporate giants cut thousands of NJ jobs — and more may be coming

Effective today, 1,319 employees of Verizon have been laid off in New Jersey.

The company is one of several big-name employers that are losing workers. A full list is below.

Verizon’s executive leadership and corporate functions have remained in Basking Ridge, while its official headquarters are in New York City.

In November, the telecommunications giant announced 13,000 layoffs worldwide. A spokesman for Verizon on Friday said that New Jersey workers were notified of their layoffs that month.

The Verizon cuts were listed with the 2025 New Jersey Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification as being out of Basking Ridge. The layoffs, however, are statewide and extend beyond that location.

Another big New Jersey employer, Merck, announced 204 layoffs. Some of those cuts, largely out of the pharmaceutical giant’s Rahway complex, will be effective in March and May.

As for new mass layoffs, Target, JP Morgan Chase and Walmart have announced several hundred more New Jersey job cuts, as seen below.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 60 Comments

Headline of the century

Posted on February 20, 2026 by grim

From WHYY:

High property taxes, high prices — and still buyers: What New Jersey’s housing market looks like right now

New Jersey’s property taxes and home values are among the highest in the nation. Nevertheless, data released in January shows demand for housing held steady in 2025, and many real estate experts expect demand to increase this year.

Jeff Otteau, chief economist for Otteau Group, Inc., said interest rates are expected to continue to drift lower, which will make it easier for people to buy homes. He said lower interest rates will also increase the number of homes being sold.

“Because the average interest rate for homeowners is around 4%, with interest rates that had risen as high as 7.8%, those existing homeowners, even though they wanted very much to sell their house and move on to whatever was next, they didn’t want to give up the advantage of that low interest rate on the home that they’re in now,” he said.

According to a report released by New Jersey Realtors, the median sales price across all property types rose by 5.4% last year to $525,000.
…
Beverly Brown Ruggia, the financial justice program director at New Jersey Citizen Action, said the Garden State’s home affordability crisis is significant.

“The gap between what is available and what people can afford is astronomical. We don’t have enough affordable homes for people to rent or purchase,” Ruggia said.

For many New Jerseyans there is no rational relationship between what they earn and what they have to pay for housing, she said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 151 Comments

Zombies still roam

Posted on February 19, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

Zombie Foreclosures Are Rising—These Midwest Metros Are Hardest Hit

Lurking behind a for sale sign could be a home sitting empty. Not because the homeowners already moved out but because the property is vacant due to foreclosure.

Nearly 1.4 million homes were vacant at the beginning of the year, according to ATTOM, a provider of property data and real estate analytics.

ATTOM released its first-quarter 2026 Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report, which found that out of the nation’s nearly 104.8 million residential properties, at least 230,401 were in the process of foreclosure (at the time of its report).

Out of those properties, at least 7,540 were considered “zombies”—meaning their owners had abandoned them before the end of the foreclosure proceedings.

The silver lining is that the zombie rate of 3.27% in the first quarter of 2026 is down slightly from 3.34% during the same time in 2025.
…
ATTOM’s data found of the 27 metropolitan areas studied—meaning those that had at least 100,000 total residential properties and 50 or more properties in the foreclosure process that are vacant—the highest zombie rates were in Cleveland (9.9%); Baltimore (9.3%); St. Louis, MO (8.6%); Akron, OH (7.4%); and Indianapolis, IN (6.5%).
…
Overall, the states with the highest overall home vacancy rates were Oklahoma (2.4%), Kansas (2.4%), Alabama (2.2%), Missouri (2.1%), and West Virginia (2.1%).

Posted in Crisis, Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 97 Comments

The battle for inventory

Posted on February 18, 2026 by grim

From Zillow:

WSJ op-ed highlights consumer impacts at stake in battle over hidden listings

A new Wall Street Journal opinion essay argues that a legal dispute Compass initiated with Zillow turns less on monopoly power than on whether home listings should be widely visible to consumers. In the piece, business law professor Nicholas Creel describes Compass’s use of private listings as a system built on limiting access to housing information.

“Compass, the nation’s largest residential real-estate brokerage, has a pitch for home buyers: Sign with us, and you’ll see homes nobody else can,” the professor writes in the Journal. “The company maintains a growing inventory of ‘Private Exclusives’ — properties marketed only through its own platforms, invisible to anyone searching on Zillow, Realtor.com or competing portals. The implicit message is simple: If you want full access to the housing market, you have no choice but to come to us.”

He argues that the approach is not innovation but rather “manufactured scarcity designed to coerce consumers into a single brokerage’s ecosystem.”

The dispute centers on Zillow’s Listing Access Standards, which require that any home marketed publicly be placed on the multiple listing service and shared broadly within one business day. Compass sued over the standards, alleging Zillow was using monopoly power to undermine a competing model, but a federal judge recently rejected that argument. 

In a decision issued in U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, Judge Jeannette A. Vargas denied Compass’ request for a preliminary injunction, writing that the company had not shown Zillow possessed monopoly power — a ruling the professor says exposed deeper weaknesses in the case.

“To prevail on its antitrust claims, Compass must prove that Zillow is a monopoly in a relevant market. But what market, exactly?” the essay asks, describing online home search as “vast and fragmented,” with multiple platforms competing for users and consumers typically checking several sites.

Creel frames Zillow’s listing policy as rooted in broad consumer access. 

“Zillow’s policy is straightforward: If a listing appears anywhere online, it should appear everywhere online,” he writes. “That principle serves buyers by ensuring equal access to inventory regardless of which brokerage or search tool they use. Compass wants a court to override this policy not because it harms consumers, but because it interferes with a business strategy that benefits realtors at the expense of home buyers.”

The essay argues that limited listing visibility can disadvantage buyers by reducing transparency and competition. “By the time everyone else walks in, the best properties may already be under contract,” the professor writes of private listing periods, likening the system to “a private presale for preferred clients before opening the doors to the general public.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Unrest | 100 Comments

Ready for the shore

Posted on February 17, 2026 by grim

From Channel 6 Philly:

Shore summer rentals see early surge as travelers book ahead

With 14 weeks to go until Memorial Day, the countdown to summer is already driving interest at the Jersey shore, where real estate professionals say vacationers are booking rentals while winter weather still lingers.

Those in the shore real estate business say many people, weary of cold, ice and snow, are already planning a week or two by the beach to get through the winter months.

“I just got three calls this morning,” said Kenny Robinson, a real estate agent with Berkshire Hathaway/Fox and Roach in Margate.

Robinson said he is seeing early interest in summer rentals, a sign of a strong start to the season.

Local tourism experts noted that last year, many renters booked shorter stays and waited longer to commit.

That trend matched what Maria Kirk saw last summer. Kirk runs Shore Summer Rentals, a direct vacation booking website focused exclusively on the Jersey shore.

“Last year, it started out much slower. But by the time June arrived, most of my hosts were booked,” Kirk said.

This year, however, demand appears to be picking up sooner.

“This year already, we’re seeing an increase, where this time last year, it was a little less. This year, people are like – whether they didn’t come last year or not – they’re ready to come back. And our traffic’s been tremendous,” Kirk said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 102 Comments

Jersey market slows in January

Posted on February 16, 2026 by grim

From Insider NJ:

New Jersey Realtors January Housing Market Data

New Jersey’s housing market entered the year with more homes available for sale and a modest increase in prices compared to last January, according to housing market data released this week by New Jersey Realtors.

Statewide Market Highlights—Total Market

  • Median Sales Price: $517,250 (+1.6% year-over-year)
  • Closed Sales: 5,090 (-8.4%)
  • Pending Sales: 4,868 (-10.8%)
  • New Listings: 7,619 (-3.1%)
  • Homes for Sale: 14,717 (+5.3%)
  • Days on Market: 46 (+7%)
  • Percent of List Price Received: 100.2% (-.5%)

Single-Family Homes

  • Median Sales Price: $575,000 (+1.8%)
  • Closed Sales: 3,484 (-7.4%)

Townhouse/Condominiums

  • Median Sales Price: $408,000 (-5.1%)
  • Closed Sales: 1,120 (-14.3%)

Adult Communities

  • Median Sales Price: $365,000 (-2.1%)
  • Closed Sales: 458 (+2.5%)
Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 50 Comments

Investors still buying

Posted on February 15, 2026 by grim

From Cotality:

Investors maintain 30% market share entering 2026 

Cotality, a leading global property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its latest update on investor activity in the U.S. Housing Market.  

Persistent housing unaffordability continues to sideline owner-occupant buyers while simultaneously fueling robust rental demand. At the close of 2025, investor activity remained stable, accounting for 30% of all single-family home purchases—a slight increase from the 29% share recorded at the end of 2024.  

“Fewer first-time homebuyers mean more people are staying in the rental market, and investors are responding to that demand,” said Thom Malone, Principal Economist at Cotality. “The current landscape differs significantly from the pandemic-era surge, which was fueled by rapid price appreciation. Now, while real estate is no longer the ‘hottest’ asset, strong rental demand and the ability to secure acquisitions below list price are keeping investors engaged even as traditional buyers retreat.”

Through late 2025, investor activity remained steady, averaging 80,000 to 100,000 monthly purchases—a pace consistent with 2024 levels. While overall sales volume has dipped since 2021, investors have proven far more resilient than traditional buyers. In just four years, the gap between owner-occupied buyers and investor purchases narrowed from 270,000 to 110,000 units. This resilience is largely attributed to the prevalence of all-cash offers, which allow investors to bypass elevated interest rates and secure deeper discounts.

The single-family residential market continues to be anchored by small (owning fewer than 10 properties) and medium-sized investors (10-99 properties), whose collective activity accounts for nearly one-quarter of all U.S. home purchases. While large (100–999 properties) and mega-scale investors (1,000+) command a smaller market share of approximately 5%, they remain a vital component by providing significant funds and helping set professional management standards in the industry.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Politics | 39 Comments

Where’s my government cheese?

Posted on February 14, 2026 by grim

From the Courier Post:

Stay NJ payments roll out amid questions about the program’s future

The first payments for the Stay NJ property tax relief program are beginning to roll out.

But with a price tag of about $1.2 billion each year, and guaranteed funding only through June of this year, the program may see changes moving forward.
…
Geared toward keeping seniors in New Jersey during their golden years, Stay NJ is designed to offer property tax rebates to those 65 and older with incomes of up to $500,000. It’s projected that 90% of eligible recipients have incomes of less than $200,000.
…
Stay NJ checks are now being mailed to approximately 430,000 qualifying taxpayers who applied last year. The payments are to be distributed in quarterly installments at an average of approximately $637 for the first check.

The first quarterly payment began rollout Feb. 9. The next quarterly payment is scheduled to be mailed in mid-May. 
…
Stay NJ is not a guaranteed program for the long term. The New Jersey Department of the Treasury acknowledged in a release announcing the payments that the “availability of New Jersey’s property tax relief programs is subject to state budget appropriations.”

The budget for fiscal year 2026, which runs through June 30, includes $2,431,572,000 for ANCHOR, $239,300,000 for Senior Freeze and $280,000,000 for Stay NJ.

That isn’t the only money dedicated for Stay NJ. It’s actually the third and final tranche of funding needed to cover just the start of the program.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 37 Comments

Sales hit two year low in January

Posted on February 13, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Realtors report a ‘new housing crisis’ as January home sales tank more than 8%

High home prices, faltering supply and weaker consumer confidence in the economy all continue to weigh on the U.S. housing market. The chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, is calling it “a new housing crisis.”

Sales of previously owned homes in January dropped a much wider-than-expected 8.4% from December to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 3.91 million, according to the NAR. Sales were 4.4% lower than January 2025. That is the slowest pace since December 2023 and the biggest monthly drop since February 2022.

This count is based on closings, so contracts that were likely signed in November and December, when the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage didn’t move much before dropping slightly in January. That rate is now 6.1%, according to Mortgage News Daily. 

Regionally, sales fell across the nation month to month but were down the most in the South and West. 

“Affordability conditions are improving, with NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showing that housing is the most affordable it’s been since March 2022,” Yun said in a release. “This is due to wage gains outpacing home price growth and mortgage rates being lower than a year ago. However, supply has not kept pace and remains quite low.”

But he also noted on a call with reporters that potential buyers are “still struggling,” and “renters are not participating in housing wealth.” He characterized the current market as a crisis because, “the movement is not happening. Americans are stuck.”

Inventory came down in January from December but was still up 3.4% year over year. There were 1.22 million homes for sale at the end of January, which at the current sales pace is a 3.7-month supply. A six-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

Tighter supply kept home prices in positive territory. The median price for a home sold in January was $396,800, up 0.9% year over year and the highest January price on record.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 62 Comments

Delinquencies rising, but it’s not so bad

Posted on February 12, 2026 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Mortgage delinquency rates in America’s lowest-income areas haven’t been this high since 2016

More homeowners — particularly those who live in lower-income areas — are struggling to make their mortgage payments, driving up delinquency rates to a 10-year high, new data show. 

The increase represents yet another distress signal coming from within the housing market.

Mortgage delinquencies rose sharply among homeowners living in lower-income ZIP codes in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to new data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Among people in all income groups who are more than 90 days late on their mortgage, borrowers in the lowest-income ZIP codes saw delinquency rates jump from about 0.5% in 2021 to 3% by late 2025. Mortgage delinquency rates were artificially low during the pandemic years, when households were receiving government stimulus payments and banks were offering relief programs to struggling borrowers, the Fed researchers said. 

But by the end of 2025, the delinquency rate among borrowers who live in the lowest-income areas had hit the highest level since 2016.

A homeowner is considered to be seriously delinquent when they are 90 days late on their mortgage payment. This can result in late fees and a drop in their credit score and can even lead to a foreclosure, which could ultimately cost them their home.

Mortgage delinquencies have not reached alarming levels — the overall serious delinquency rate was 1.3% in 2025, while during the 2007-09 recession, over 8% of borrowers were seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments — but there’s been a sharp increase from years past. 

“It’s no surprise that serious delinquencies have increased most among lower-income borrowers, in places where the unemployment rate has increased and where houses haven’t gained much in value and may have lost value,” Brad Case, chief residential economist at Homes.com, told MarketWatch. 

“What we’re seeing here is normal,” he added, “and doesn’t give us any reason to be concerned about the broader market.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 36 Comments