I’ll die before I sell you my home

From the Hill:

1 in 3 baby boomers say they’ll never sell home: Redfin

About a third of baby boomers who own their homes don’t expect to ever part with them, according to a new poll.

The survey, which was conducted by Ipsos last month for nationwide real estate company Redfin, found that another 30 percent of the post-World War II generation said they might sell at some point — just not within the next decade.

Comparatively, about a quarter of homeowners who are part of Gen X — loosely defined as people born between 1965 and 1980 — say they will never sell their homes. About 20 percent of Millennials and the Gen Z cohort who own homes said they will never sell.

According to Redfin, the tendency among older Americans to stay in the homes they own is putting additional stress on the housing market and making it more difficult for younger people to find affordable places to buy that are fit to raise families. Nearly 90 percent of the boomer-owned dwellings are single-family homes.

“While inventory is improving, supply is tight for young house hunters looking for family homes, especially in suburban areas where homes priced like starter homes, yet large enough for families, are scarce,” Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in an analysis of the poll’s findings. “With baby boomers opting to age in place rather than sell, it’s challenging for younger buyers to find affordable options that fit their lifestyle.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 26 Comments

Can’t afford to live there either…

From News12:

Report: Home prices hit record high in Suffolk; Nassau market slows slightly

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000 and the average price of a single-family home is up to $690,000 in Suffolk.

According to by OneKey MLS, the median price of a single-family home in Suffolk in May was $690,000, up 6.2% from last year.

The average price for a house in Nassau last month was $810,000. The number is still up from this time last year, but not a record high.

Nassau’s all-time high was $835,000. That number was hit last August.

Huntington-based realtor Nick Orlando says it’s now common to see someone go at least $100,000 over asking price.

“That’s what’s really keeping prices up, are these few buyers that are just really trying to be as competitive as possible,” he said.

Part of the reason why prices of homes in Suffolk are more expensive now, according to realtors, is that prices in Nassau are even higher, causing people to house hunt further east and creating more demand.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 55 Comments

We’re all millionaires now

From Mansion Global:

Rising Home Prices Are Creating More ‘Everyday Millionaires’

More than 1,000 Americans a day became millionaires last year, according to a report from UBS released on Wednesday. 

The number of worldwide millionaires, measured in U.S. dollars, rose 1.2% last year, with the U.S. adding more than 379,000 new millionaires. Globally, more than 684,000 people became millionaires last year. 

This rise in wealth—which is up 4.6% globally, following 2023’s bump of 4.2%—is in part because of an increase in the “everyday millionaire,” which UBS defines as someone with investible assets between $1 million and $5 million. At the end of last year, there were 52 million everyday millionaires, more than quadruple the amount that existed in 2000. This demographic accounts for about $107 trillion in wealth—nearly as much as those with more than $5 million in assets, who have a total wealth of $119 trillion. 

The growth of real estate values is playing the largest factor in the rise of everyday millionaires, UBS found. Exchange rates are also a major component of everyday millionaires’ wealth, and the sudden devaluation of another currency against the U.S. dollar could quickly diminish the number of everyday millionaires overseas, according to UBS. 

North American adults, who saw their wealth increase by more than 11%, were the wealthiest on average last year at $593,347, followed by Oceania ($496,696) and Western Europe ($287,688). By country, however, Switzerland was No. 1 in average wealth per adult at $687,166. The U.S. was second with an average wealth of $620,654, followed by Hong Kong at $601,195.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Buyers giving up?

From MarketWatch:

Bye-bye bidding wars: Housing market becomes more buyer-friendly as more sellers slash prices

Home sellers this spring have been frustrated by a slower-than-normal housing market. That could set up a summer of deals for buyers.

Housing inventory is nearing prepandemic levels, with the number of homes for sale exceeding 1 million, the highest level since winter 2019. The share of homes for sale with a price cut has increased for the last five months in a row, Realtor.com senior economist Jake Krimmel told MarketWatch. 

That means house hunters this year could end up seeing the “most buyer-friendly summer” in three years, Krimmel said.

Across the U.S., many areas are seeing a profound shift as homes increasingly languish on the market. The typical home for sale remained on the market for 38 days this May, six days longer than in May 2024, according to real-estate brokerage Redfin.

More sellers are offering discounts to buyers. Even as competition intensifies, buyer activity has dropped, said Jeremy Applebaum, an Overland Park, Kan.-based real-estate agent with Applebaum KC Homes for the Real Brokerage. He’s writing fewer offers, he told MarketWatch, and homes are sitting on the market longer. 

Real-estate agents on the seller side are telling their clients to face the uncomfortable truth: They might have to slash their asking price even deeper if they want to sell their home anytime soon. 

“Sellers still have expectations that some people call unrealistic. I call it aspirational pricing,” Jeanne Frederick, a Las Vegas-based global luxury-property specialist at Coldwell Banker, told MarketWatch.

Heather Cook, a Charlotte-based real-estate agent with the Curated Group for the Real Brokerage, agreed. “There’s an extreme disconnect between seller mentality versus reality,” she said. “Buyers are absolutely unwilling to overpay for homes, especially ones sitting on the market for over 30 days, which is not uncommon right now.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

April rebound?

From Kiplinger:

Kiplinger Housing Outlook: Monthly Home Price Growth Falls for First Time Since 2023

Home prices continue to push higher, but at a slower pace. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which measures the price of existing homes across the nation, rose 3.4% in March from a year earlier, down from a 4% annual gain in the previous month. On a month-over-month, seasonally adjusted basis, home prices fell 0.3%. While low house affordability continues to weigh on demand, a limited supply of homes for sale is supporting continued price growth. New York reported the strongest gains over the year, followed by Chicago and Cleveland. Homes prices in Tampa fell 2.2% over the year, the weakest return in the 20 cities covered by the index.

The rebound in housing starts in April is likely to be short-lived. Total housing starts rose 1.6%, to 1.36 million annualized units, in April. The gain was the result of a jump in multifamily construction, which was more than enough to offset a slip in single-family starts. Regionally, total starts rose in the Northeast, Midwest and West and fell the South. Single-family starts dropped 2.1%, while multifamily starts, which are very volatile on a monthly basis, rose 10.7% during the month. Single-family permits fell 5.1%, while multifamily permits decreased 3.7%. The decline in building permits indicates that demand remains volatile amid trade policy and overall financial uncertainty. As mortgage rates remain elevated, builders have stepped up their use of mortgage rate buy-downs and other incentives to soften the impact of higher rates. That said, builders are also becoming more cautious on account of rising uncertainty due to the impact of tariffs on the industry.

New home sales rose sharply in April, up 10.9%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 743,000 units. The new home market continues to benefit from a tight supply of existing homes for sale and builder incentives that help make new homes more affordable for buyers. The median price of a new home now stands at $407,200, higher than a month ago but 2% lower than a year ago. While the new-home market has been less sensitive to changes in mortgage rates thanks to the incentives offered by builders, rates staying above 6% will likely continue to discourage some buyers in the months ahead. The inventory of new homes has risen 8.6% over the past 12 months. At the current sales pace, that inventory would last 8.1 months.

Existing home sales fell despite a temporary drop in mortgage rates. Sales of previously owned homes slipped 0.5%, to 4.0 million annualized units, in April. Existing home sales continue to run at a slow pace as buyers contend with elevated financing costs, high home prices and limited inventory. Mortgage applications, which lead sales by a month or two, rose in May, which leaves them just shy of where they were in January and very low by historical standards. The total inventory of existing homes on the market rose 9% from a year ago. This translates to 4.4 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 4 months in March.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 226 Comments

Your kids can’t afford to be here

From the NY Post:

Here’s how much owning a home in 2030 will cost based on stagnant US salaries

The national median home price is projected to climb to $615,103 by decade’s end, while income gains lag behind — leaving households across the country priced out of homeownership unless their earnings rise dramatically.

Nowhere is the affordability crunch more severe than in Montana, where home prices are forecast to hit roughly $932,584.

To keep up, the average household income would need to jump by an eye-popping 144%, reaching nearly $191,000.

Once considered a haven of affordable living, the state’s housing market has spiraled upward amid a pandemic-fueled influx of remote workers.

California, long a poster child for housing sticker shock, isn’t far behind. The Golden State is projected to see its median home price climb to more than $1.23 million, requiring households to bring in more than $250,000 annually — nearly a 140% increase in average salary — to afford a typical property.

While California boasts some of the country’s highest wages, they haven’t kept pace with the runaway market, the report notes.

New York, to no one’s surprise, is also poised for a pricing crunch.

By 2030, the median home is expected to cost more than $780,000, while the income needed to buy it will need to surge past $179,000 — a 103% leap. Much of that growth is concentrated in dense metro areas like New York City, where demand continues to outstrip supply.

Rhode Island and New Jersey round out the top five states with the biggest affordability gaps. 

And in New Jersey, residents will need to earn more than $210,000 annually to manage projected housing costs nearing $845,000. That would make it the second-most expensive state in terms of income required to afford a home, behind California.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 25 Comments

Jersey gets risky

From ATTOM:

CALIFORNIA AND NEW JERSEY LOCALES TOP COUNTIES FACING GREATEST HOUSING MARKET HEADWINDS

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the first quarter of 2025. The report shows that California and New Jersey had high concentrations of counties considered most at-risk.

The data shows that 23 of the 50 most at-risk markets were in California (14) and New Jersey (9). Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates.

In a sign of the robust post-pandemic housing market, the number of foreclosures and proportion of homes with seriously underwater mortgages—meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value—remained low throughout much of the country during the first quarter of the year. But that stability, combined with several years of aggressive buying, has contributed to escalating prices that make it increasingly hard to purchase a new home in some markets.

In 109 of the counties ATTOM analyzed, a typical resident would have to spend more than half of their annual income to cover the down payment, mortgage, and other initial expenses for a median-priced home.

“This report highlights a number of market forces that anyone with an interest in their local housing market should keep an eye on,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Affordability is an obvious concern, but as the data shows, there’s a complex interplay between price, wages, mortgage health, and foreclosure rates that can give even greater insight into where property values are likely to go in the future.”

“There’s no unequivocal metric that can tell you where it’s safe to buy and where it’s risky,” he added. “But taken together these data points show how different parts of the country are performing.”

The three most at-risk counties in ATTOM’s analysis—Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties—cover regions of Northern California that, in addition to contending with challenging market forces, have been ravaged by wildfires in recent years. Rounding out the top five most at-risk counties were New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties along the state’s southern coast.

In previous years, counties surrounding New York City, NY have scored among the riskiest in the nation. But that wasn’t the case in the first quarter of 2025. No New York counties landed among the 50 riskiest markets, and although nine New Jersey counties did, they were largely in the central and southern part of the state.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 127 Comments

More homes for sale?

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s housing market heats up: Over 9,000 homes listed 

Thousands of homes hit New Jersey’s housing market last month, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com.

A total of 9,844 homes were listed statewide in April, making for a nearly 5% increase compared to the same time last year.

Most of the nation saw the percentage of newly listed homes increase.

Vermont and Massachusetts saw the largest increase in newly listed homes at over 25% and 21%, respectively.

North Dakota, which had 916 newly listed homes in April, saw the most significant dip at 18.65%.

According to a recent Redfin report, nationwide housing stock hit a five-year high.

“A lot of people are selling their homes and downsizing,” Meme Loggins, a Redfin agent based in Portland, Oregon, said in the report. “They’re worried about the economy.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 184 Comments

Renting Jersey

From NY Post:

Dozens of New Jersey suburbs have more renters than homeowners — more than any other state

In the Garden State, signing a deed to buy a home is being outnumbered in certain areas by inking a lease to rent one. 

As housing affordability continues to decline nationwide, a growing number of New Jersey suburbs especially are now dominated by renters — recasting the classic vision of suburban life.

A new analysis of US Census data by Point2Homes reveals that 39 New Jersey suburbs with populations more than 10,000 are now renter-majority — a figure that leads the nation. 

Once a haven for aspiring homeowners who wanted to maintain close ties to New York City, the state’s inner-ring suburbs are seeing significant demographic and economic transformation as more residents lease rather than buy.

Places like Harrison, Union City, West New York, Passaic and Elizabeth are among the top 20 suburbs in the country with the highest shares of renter households. 

In Harrison, located near Newark, over 81% of households are occupied by renters; in Union City, it’s nearly 80%. The trend isn’t just about where people are living — it’s about how.

The shift reflects both an affordability crisis and changing attitudes about homeownership, according to the National Association of Home Builders, which noted that nearly 75% of US households cannot afford a median-priced new home in 2025 — now hovering around $460,000 with a 30-year mortgage rate at 6.5%.

In New Jersey, the shift is particularly stark. 

Of the 15 suburbs nationwide that flipped from homeowner-majority to renter-majority between 2018 and 2023, four are in New Jersey — more than any other state. 

Bound Brook, for example, saw its renter population jump from just under 50% to more than 58%. 

North Arlington, East Franklin and Secaucus also made the list, each undergoing a similar transformation.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth and Paterson added more than 3,500 renter households each over the past five years, ranking among the top 10 suburbs nationwide for absolute growth in renter households.

The movement isn’t just driven by rising home prices — it’s also a response to skyrocketing urban rents, especially considering nearby New York. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 271 Comments

Jersey Market Slows

From NorthJersey.com:

With nearly 25% more home listings in May, housing inventory in NJ continues to rise

If it feels like you’ve been noticing more for sale signs popping up, it’s not all in your head: Housing inventory across the nation has consistently been increasing across the country, including right here in New Jersey.

With more than 1.5 million homes for sale — 31.5% more than the year prior — May marked the 19th consecutive month of inventory growth across the nation, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. Inventory is at its highest post-pandemic level to date, and this marks the first time the number of homes for sale has topped one million since the winter of 2019.

“Still, inventory remains 14.4% below typical 2017-2019 levels, though May’s gains indicate the market is closing the gap at an accelerating pace,” Realtor.com said.

In New Jersey, there were a total of 16,379 active home listings. This was 24.11% more than last year and 15.69% more than April 2025, according to Realtor.com’s monthly market data.

The Garden State also had a median listing price of $575,000 — a 0.86% decrease from last year and a 1.05% increase from April 2025 — and active listings stayed on the market for about 33 days.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 39 Comments

Jobs Day

From CNBC:

Friday’s jobs report likely will show hiring cooled in May. Here’s what to expect

There seems little doubt now that hiring slowed considerably in May as companies and consumers braced for higher tariffs and elevated economic uncertainty. The main question is by how much.

A small dip from the recent trend likely wouldn’t be viewed as worrisome. But anything beyond that could set off a fresh round of fears about the labor market and broader economy, possibly pushing the Federal Reserve into a quicker-than-expected interest rate action.

Economists expect that when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the May nonfarm payroll numbers Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, they will show a gain of just 125,000, down from an initial tally of 177,000 in April and the year-to-date monthly average of 144,000. That represents a slide but not a collapse, and markets will hinge on the degree of decline.

“Going into the NFP print, expectations have been reset lower and a reading of around 100,000 (vs. the 125,000 expected by the consensus) could fall in the ‘not-as-bad-as-feared’” camp, wrote Julien Lefargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. “Anything below the 100,000 mark could reignite recession fears, while a stronger-than-expected print could perversely be negative for risk assets as it would likely put upward pressure on [Treasury] yields.”

Consequently, the report will be a balancing act between competing concerns of a slowing labor market and rising inflation.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment | 111 Comments

Post Pandemic Hangover

From Newsweek:

Denver Faces Pileup of Unsold Homes

There are more homes for sale in Denver now than there were before the pandemic, in 2019, as hundreds of listings are piling up in the market amid buyers’ apparent indifference.

While prices have begun to slide, they remain much higher than they were five years ago—suggesting that the vast majority of homes on the market may still be unaffordable for many buyers in the city already struggling with high mortgage rates and growing housing costs.

Denver’s housing market exploded during the pandemic, when the nationwide homebuying frenzy spurred by historically low mortgage rates found fertile ground in the city. In the past five years, however, inventory dried up, and mile-high home prices and high mortgage rates have pushed homeownership out of the reach of many locals.

Now, however, things are starting to change. Inventory is finally growing again, as sellers who were waiting for lower mortgage rates have accepted that the situation might not change anytime soon. In Denver, listings are now above pre-pandemic norms, suggesting that prices might soon come down as buyers acquire more negotiating power.

Inventory is on the rise in Denver, but sales are not keeping up.

According to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR), there were 13,599 active listings in the city in May, up 13.67 percent from a month earlier and the highest number since 2011. New listings, at 7,284, went up by 3.14 percent.

While pending sales were also on the rise month-over-month by 6.88 percent at 4,349, the number of closed sales was actually down 2.63 percent at 4,036. Sales volume, at $2.91 billion, was down by 2.44 percent.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 69 Comments

Can’t lose in real estate

From Realtor.com:

Home Prices Are ‘Not on the Verge of a Nuclear Crash’: Economist Projects Modest Price Gains of 3% in 2025

National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said that he believes home sales will pick up in the second half of the year and that national median home prices will grow 3% in 2025.

Speaking at the Realtors Legislative Meetings in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, Yun argued that overall home prices will continue to grow modestly, despite weak sales in the first half of the year and an uptick in seller price reductions.

“Home prices are not on the verge of a nuclear crash,” said Yun, pointing to low levels of serious mortgage delinquencies as a sign that few homeowners will be forced into distressed sales.

Despite weak sales activity in the early part of the year, Yun forecasts existing-home sales will rebound and rise 6% this year compared with 2024, while new-home sales will rise 10%.

His forecast hinges on mortgage rates easing to 6.4% by the end of the year, alongside continued labor market growth with 1.6 million jobs added to the economy across 2025.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

What will tip the market?

From Quartz:

America’s housing market is cracking

After more than two years of relentless price increases, the fundamentals are shifting. Home prices are starting to fall, unsold inventory is piling up to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and buyers — from first-time purchasers to luxury shoppers — are walking away from deals or demanding steep discounts. 

The combination of mortgage rates hovering around 7% and mounting economic uncertainty around tariffs has created a host of reasons for a buyer to hesitate. What’s emerging is a market where sellers are making concessions and buyers hold the cards — a dramatic reversal from the bidding wars and cash offers that defined the market.

Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.12% in March from the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It’s a small dip, sure, but it marks the end of a relentless upward march that has defined the housing market since January 2023.

The bigger shift is happening in supply. Unsold completed new single-family homes hit 117,000 in April — the highest level since July 2009, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by housing researcher Lance Lambert. That’s a 31% jump from the previous year, and it’s happening at a time when homebuilders are getting increasingly nervous about demand.

Even luxury buyers are backing away. Luxury home sales fell 10%in April from a year earlier, marking the steepest decline since 2023, according to Redfin data. This isn’t just about mortgage rates — these are cash buyers and jumbo loan borrowers who theoretically have more financial flexibility. But the retreat among wealthy buyers reflects a broader pattern of anxiety spreading even among the top 5% of U.S. households, with some $7 trillion sitting in money-market funds rather than being deployed into assets like real estate and stocks.

For buyers, the landscape is becoming more negotiable.Almost half of sellers are already offering concessions, according to Redfin, and inventory levels are at the highest point since September 2020.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 64 Comments

Expensive houses going to get even more expensive

From NJ Spotlight News:

As housing prices rise, Murphy wants a tax increase

With housing prices rising steadily and aggravating affordability concerns, Gov. Phil Murphy wants to hike fees levied on New Jersey’s priciest real estate sales, a tax increase that would be paid by buyers.

Murphy is calling for that tax hike, as well as about $1 billion in other increases, to help narrow a wide gap between how much state government spends and collects from taxes each year.

Under Murphy’s plan, the existing 1% state fee, commonly referred to as the mansion tax, levied on houses and buildings with sales prices topping $1 million would be increased to 2%.

The same tax proposal, which requires approval from state lawmakers, also calls for creating a new, 3% state levy on the sales of properties with prices over $2 million.

While the proposed rate changes appear to be modest, the Murphy administration has estimated the increases would bring in more than $315 million in additional revenue during the new fiscal year that begins July 1.

That’s a significant amount of money for a state that has been drawing down billions of dollars in budget reserves in recent years to help narrow gaps between planned expenditures and revenues, a practice fiscal-policy experts have warned is unsustainable over the long term.

However, it’s now up to lawmakers to decide what to do with Murphy’s budget proposals and his proposed tax increases as they face the task of drafting an appropriations bill for the new fiscal year.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 107 Comments