Delinquencies rising, but it’s not so bad

Posted on February 12, 2026 by grim

From MarketWatch:

Mortgage delinquency rates in America’s lowest-income areas haven’t been this high since 2016

More homeowners — particularly those who live in lower-income areas — are struggling to make their mortgage payments, driving up delinquency rates to a 10-year high, new data show. 

The increase represents yet another distress signal coming from within the housing market.

Mortgage delinquencies rose sharply among homeowners living in lower-income ZIP codes in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to new data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Among people in all income groups who are more than 90 days late on their mortgage, borrowers in the lowest-income ZIP codes saw delinquency rates jump from about 0.5% in 2021 to 3% by late 2025. Mortgage delinquency rates were artificially low during the pandemic years, when households were receiving government stimulus payments and banks were offering relief programs to struggling borrowers, the Fed researchers said. 

But by the end of 2025, the delinquency rate among borrowers who live in the lowest-income areas had hit the highest level since 2016.

A homeowner is considered to be seriously delinquent when they are 90 days late on their mortgage payment. This can result in late fees and a drop in their credit score and can even lead to a foreclosure, which could ultimately cost them their home.

Mortgage delinquencies have not reached alarming levels — the overall serious delinquency rate was 1.3% in 2025, while during the 2007-09 recession, over 8% of borrowers were seriously delinquent on their mortgage payments — but there’s been a sharp increase from years past. 

“It’s no surprise that serious delinquencies have increased most among lower-income borrowers, in places where the unemployment rate has increased and where houses haven’t gained much in value and may have lost value,” Brad Case, chief residential economist at Homes.com, told MarketWatch. 

“What we’re seeing here is normal,” he added, “and doesn’t give us any reason to be concerned about the broader market.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 33 Comments

NY Metro starting to crack?

Posted on February 11, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

America Slowly Tilts Toward a Buyer’s Market as Listings Pile Up in More Metros

1. Miami, FL

Months of supply: 11.5

January median list price: $500,000

2. Austin, TX

Months of supply: 10.5

January median list price: $455,000

3. Orlando, FL

Months of supply: 8.2

January median list price: $415,000

4. Tampa, FL

Months of supply: 7.9

January median list price: $399,727

5. New York, NY

Months of supply: 7.7

January median list price: $749,000

6. Las Vegas, NV

Months of supply: 7.4

January median list price: $465,000

7. Riverside, CA

Months of supply: 7.4

January median list price: $585,000

8. Nashville, TN

Months of supply: 7.3

January median list price: $525,000

9. Jacksonville, FL

Months of supply: 7.2

January median list price: $375,000

10. Atlanta, GA

Months of supply: 7.1

January median list price: $400,000

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 80 Comments

Rich people drive home prices, not supply

Posted on February 10, 2026 by grim

From Fortune:

We may be looking at the housing affordability crisis all wrong. Higher earners are driving home prices, not lack of supply, researchers say

According to a recent note written by UC Irvine PhD student Schuyler Louie along with San Francisco Fed researchers John Mondragon, Rami Najjar, and Johannes Wieland, average income growth “relates strongly” to house price growth.

“However, there is almost no connection between average income growth and growth in housing supply,” they added. “Instead, housing supply growth has a strong positive relationship with population growth. In fact, almost all metro areas saw housing units grow faster than their population—even in expensive residential markets like Los Angeles or San Francisco.”

That challenges deeply ingrained notions that NIMBYism, red tape, and politicians who favor rent controls over new construction are worsening the housing affordability crisis. 

Meanwhile, California’s pricey housing markets have been held up as a prime example of these trends and often contrasted with those in Texas, where homes are more affordable. 

To be sure, California is expensive to live in, fueling homelessness and migration out of the state. But given that supply was not a factor, the researchers took a closer look at how differences in demand affect home prices.

Drawing on data going back to the mid-1970s, they pointed out that house prices and median income tracked each other closely until 2000. But after that, home price growth far surpassed incomes.

“This research indicates that regulatory reforms may have limited impact on housing affordability and that   differences in housing supply constraints are not the fundamental drivers of differences in housing dynamics across metro areas,” they said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 61 Comments

More of the same in 2026

Posted on February 8, 2026 by grim

From the Street:

J.P. Morgan predicts what’s next for mortgage rates, housing market

If you’re hoping for a 3% mortgage and bargain‑basement prices, J.P. Morgan’s 2026 housing outlook suggests you may be waiting a long time. 

The bank expects 30‑year fixed mortgage rates to “stay elevated at 6+%” in 2026, even if the Federal Reserve begins easing policy later this year, according to J.P. Morgan Global Research.

At the same time, U.S. home prices, which have nearly doubled over the past decade, are projected to “stall at 0% nationally in 2026,” meaning prices flatten on average rather than fall outright.

Here’s how J.P. Morgan thinks the mortgage‑rate picture plays out next year.

  • 30‑year fixed mortgage rates: Expected to remain above 6% in 2026, even with potential Fed cuts.
  • Adjustable‑rate mortgages (ARMs): Could “tick downward if the Fed decides to ease, thereby making homes more affordable.” 
  • Builder buydowns: Homebuilders “are continuing to offer rate buydowns — in which they pay a sum upfront to help lower the buyer’s mortgage rate — in a bid to clear their inventory.”
Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate | 48 Comments

HODL!

Posted on February 5, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

A surprising share of homeowners have high mortgage rates. Here’s the breakdown

The share of U.S. homeowners with high rates on their mortgages has jumped sharply in just the last few years. 

That’s having a marked impact on the refinance market and a somewhat more muted impact on home sales. Rates have been front and center in the debate over how to improve home affordability — and for good reason. 

In 2022, after mortgage interest rates hit more than a dozen record lows, sparking a refinance bonanza, barely 10% of homeowners had 30-year fixed mortgages with rates above 5%. Just four years later, that share has jumped to over 30%, according to ICE Mortgage Technology. About 20% of borrowers have mortgages with a rate over 6%.

Home sales have been less than robust over the last few years, with the National Association of Realtors reporting a historically low 4.06 million sales last year, basically unchanged from 2024. This, after hitting a 15-year high of 6.12 million home sales in 2022.
…
Applications to refinance a home loan are now about 120% higher than they were one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

As for home sales, the last four years were characterized by the so-called rate “lock-in” effect, meaning potential sellers didn’t want to give up their historically low rates. They therefore put off moves that they might otherwise have wanted to make. 

Entering 2025, there were roughly 39 million homeowners with an interest rate below 5% and roughly 12 million with an interest rate below 3%, according to Walden.

“If you look at how those borrowers behaved last year, only about 6% of those folks gave up those low rates, either through a refinance to pull equity out of their home or through the sale of their home. Close to 95% of homeowners held on to those rates tight,” he said.

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate | 292 Comments

NJ leads the nation

Posted on February 4, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

N.J. home price surge bucks national trend of price growth hitting softest rate since Great Recession

Cotality, a provider of property information, analytics, and data-enabled solutions, released its Home Price Index for December 2025 data Feb. 3, revealing national housing growth continues to cool along with the weather. 

In December, annual price growth slowed to just 0.9% — one of the softest rates since the post-Great Recession recovery. This indicates that the market is in a rebalancing phase where strong economic and housing fundamentals are necessary to support local housing demand.

Even as national growth softens, the Midwest and parts of Northeast remain strong due to their relative affordability, diversified job markets and hybrid work dynamics. States such as New Jersey (+5.5%), Illinois (+5.4%), Nebraska (+5.4%), and Connecticut (+5.1%) are among the nation’s strongest performers, with markets like Newark, Allentown, Pa., and Chicago recording gains that run counter to the broader cooling trend.  

New Jersey was one of seven states that reached new high home price growth as of December. The others were Pennsylvania, Delaware, Nebraska, Louisiana, Indiana and Mississippi.

“We are seeing a significant departure from the rapid surges of recent years; while the upward pressure on prices remains, the momentum has moderated enough to suggest that the market is finally becoming more navigable for prospective buyers,” said Cotality Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

Negative home price growth is dominating the South and the West — including Florida, Texas, Colorado, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and California — reflecting the pressure of higher inventory levels and moderating in-migration in markets that previously saw rapid expansion.  

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 138 Comments

Sorry about your job

Posted on February 3, 2026 by grim

From NJ1015:

Nearly 2,000 layoffs announced in New Jersey to start 2026

New Jersey has started 2026 with almost two-thousand notable layoffs, revealed by nine employers, so far.

Once giant retailer, Macy’s announced a combined 89 layoffs at three New Jersey locations — Paramus, Ramsey and Livingston.

Both the Ramsey store and the Livingston store, an anchor at the struggling Livingston mall, will be closing entirely, while one of the brand’s Paramus locations is moving.

Macy’s would be left with roughly 26 locations in New Jersey.

Similarly, T-Mobile USA has announced a total of 78 layoffs across New Jersey between April and September. The cell phone service provider that is based in Washington State.

Easily the largest contributor to the grim start of layoffs has been Amazon, with several New Jersey locations impacted.

New Jersey started 2026 with almost two-thousand notable layoffs, revealed by nine employers in the first month.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 118 Comments

The Bank of Mom and Dad Just Went Ultra-Luxury

Posted on February 2, 2026 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

How $6T In Inherited Wealth Is Transforming the Luxury Real Estate Market

As the great wealth transfer shifts from a theoretical forecast to a tangible economic force, demand for luxury real estate is increasing.

An estimated $6 trillion was transferred intergenerationally in 2025, primarily from the silent generation and baby boomers to their heirs, Realtor.com reported. The massive liquidity event is changing market dynamics for high-end real estate, creating a class of buyers who are insulated from the pressures of the broader housing market.

An estimated $124 trillion will transfer through 2048, according to a December 2024 report by Cerulli Associates.

“For inherited wealth, real estate is less about chasing returns and more about preserving value across generations,” Realtor.com senior economist Anthony Smith said.

That’s the sentiment that’s driving a surge in the $10 million-plus ultraluxury segment.

“Where typically someone aged 30 to 45 would afford a $3 million maximum, inherited wealth allows them to enter the $10 million-plus bracket immediately,” Manhattan broker Lisa Lippman said.

The influx of inherited capital is concentrated in specific “legacy” markets and lifestyle destinations, Coldwell Banker agent Cara Ameer told Realtor.com.

Heirs are not just buying properties — they are upgrading their lifestyles. Real estate agents in Miami and Palm Beach, Florida, report that beneficiaries often follow a specific pattern.

They upgrade their primary residence, moving from rentals or smaller condos to estates valued at $10 million or more, or they purchase second homes in ski towns like Aspen, Colorado or international hubs like Italy and Dubai.

“Many of them view luxury real estate here as one of the safest tangible assets — especially in markets like Palm Beach where inventory is limited and long-term value is well protected,” Steven Presson, an agent with Corcoran in Palm Beach, told Realtor.com.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 91 Comments

Judges Decline to Hit Pause on Affordable Housing, Suburbs Hit Panic Button

Posted on February 1, 2026 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

27 N.J. towns lose another round in fight over affordable housing — and they’re not giving up

An appeals court judge on Friday rejected a request from 27 towns to pause New Jersey’s new affordable housing requirements — the latest in a string of defeats for the group.

Judge Cindy K. Chung of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit denied the towns’ bid in a one‑sentence order, marking the third time in two weeks their attempt at emergency relief has been turned down.

The 27 towns — organized as Local Leaders for Responsible Planning — had already been denied twice last week by U.S. District Judge Zahid N. Quraishi. After those rulings, they appealed to the Third Circuit, only to be rejected again.

Their next step is an appeal the U.S. Supreme Court, where they plan to seek intervention in their challenge to the Affordable Housing Reform Law. 

“While we are disappointed that the Third Circuit denied our motion without even offering an explanation today, we are excited to announce that we will be bringing this case to Justice Samuel Alito, who is our emergency justice of the Supreme Court of the United States, with a filing anticipated to be completed on Monday,” Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassalisaid in a social media post. 

Montvale is the lead plaintiff in the case, which includes mostly affluent suburban communities in North and Central Jersey, including Holmdel, Millburn and Franklin Lakes — places that have long resisted high‑density development and previously fought affordable housing mandates in court.

The state defendants include the New Jersey attorney general, the administrative director of the courts and members of the Affordable Housing Dispute Resolution Program.

The towns have argued that the stay — a court order that temporarily stops a law or ruling from taking effect while a case is still being decided — is necessary. They contend that a victory on appeal would be hollow because construction would already have begun and could not be reversed.

The more than two dozen municipalities initially filed a lawsuit in state court challenging the Affordable Housing Reform Law enacted by Gov. Phil Murphy in 2024.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 60 Comments

Where the hell have you been?

Posted on January 31, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Starter homes priced under $300K have vanished in dozens of US cities

The American starter home is disappearing fast — and in dozens of cities, it’s already gone.

A new Ziffy analysis of active listings across 855 US housing markets shows that homes priced below the once-standard $300,000 entry point have all but vanished. 

In 42 markets, there isn’t a single house or townhome listed under that level. In another 13, sub-$300,000 properties make up less than 1% of inventory, meaning buyers face a wall of listings priced far above what used to qualify as a first rung on the ownership ladder.

Nationwide, the imbalance is stark. Nearly two-thirds of all active listings are now priced above $300,000, leaving just over a third below that threshold. 

And when local starter-tier prices climb past $300,000, affordable inventory collapses almost entirely, dropping to under 3% of available homes.

“With mortgage rates surging to their steepest rise in history beginning in early 2022, as the Fed pivoted to higher interest rates, the ‘lock-in effect’ has kept many new, starter listings off the market,” Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel, told The Post.

“A homebuyer enjoying a 2.75% rate isn’t anxious to become a buyer in a 6.3% housing market, so they don’t list their property.”

The crunch is most brutal in the country’s biggest and priciest metros. 

New York and Los Angeles together have more than 7,700 homes for sale, yet fewer than 70 are listed under $300,000 — well under 1% in each city. In practical terms, that makes entry-level buying in those markets close to impossible.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 57 Comments

Hold or Sell?

Posted on January 28, 2026 by grim

Hat Tip Chi, from Investment News:

Inheritances won’t unlock housing supply as the ‘silver tsunami’ may be a gentle wave

The largest generational transfer of housing wealth in modern US history is underway with inherited homes changing family balance sheets, reshaping financial planning and swelling senior net worth totals.

But despite record-breaking property hand-offs, the long-anticipated wave of homes hitting the market (and easing the housing shortage) isn’t arriving, meaning hopeful homebuyers may find affordability remains constrained.

New research from Cotality shows inherited homes are reaching historic levels as more properties pass from aging owners to their heirs, with inherited houses accounting for a record share of all home transfers in the United States in the past year. At first glance, that sounds like fresh inventory for a starved housing market but the reality is different because most of these homes are staying off the open market.

Instead of selling inherited properties, many heirs are moving in themselves or holding onto them as long-term family assets. State tax structures reinforce that behavior as, in places like California, heirs can preserve lower property tax assessments if they occupy inherited homes as primary residences. That incentive encourages families to keep homes rather than list them, effectively removing potential supply from public sale.

Cotality’s analysis pushes back on the popular idea of a looming “Silver Tsunami” of housing inventory. Older Americans, the data suggests, are aging in place at high rates. When ownership finally transfers, heirs frequently choose to retain the property. The result: a massive wealth shift between generations without the broad release of homes that housing-market optimists once expected.

Financial industry analysts estimate trillions of dollars in real estate assets will pass to younger generations over the next decade, fundamentally reshaping investment portfolios and estate strategies. Advisors are already preparing for inherited property to become a central component of household wealth planning — even as housing affordability remains strained for new buyers.

Posted in Demographics, National Real Estate | 429 Comments

Why banks are salivating over 50 year mortgages

Posted on January 27, 2026 by grim

From AEI:

Buying a House Has Become Less Affordable. A 50-Year Mortgage Is Not the Answer.

Buying a home increasingly feels out of reach for middle-income households—and for good reason. On a national level, house prices are up over 50 percentsince late 2019. Over the same period, 30-year mortgage rates have risen from 3.74 percent to 6.23 percent. Property taxes and hazard insurance have also risen sharply in the last few years. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s Home Ownership Affordability Monitor, the median total monthly payment required to purchase the median-priced house is up a whopping 90 percent in the last six years. In comparison, median household income is up 29 percent over the same period.

Unfortunately, longer loans would help a little but hurt a lot. Most of the potential for 50-year loans to improve the affordability of monthly payments would be offset by higher mortgage rates. And because equity builds much slower with a half-century-long mortgage, buying a house with such a long loan would rob the homebuyer of the very wealth they are seeking to build. Overall, costs would far exceed even potential benefits.

In theory, a 50-year mortgage could make housing more affordable through lower monthly principal and interest payments compared to a 30-year mortgage. In practice, it won’t. Why? Government guarantors, private insurers and investors in mortgage-backed securities collectively set mortgage rates. Because this trio would carry more interest rate risk, prepayment risk and credit risk with a 50-year home loan than with a 30-year loan, they would charge more for the half-century mortgage.

Because of the same elevated risk, this trio currently charges higher rates for 30-year mortgages than for 15-year mortgages. There likely would be a similar difference in rates between 50-year and 30-year mortgages, and higher rates for half-century mortgages would offset most of the benefit of the longer term on the monthly payment. Under this scenario of similar rate differences, a person who buys a median-priced house today (about $410,000) with a five percent down payment and 50-year mortgage at 6.95 percent would save about $65 a month compared to a 30-year loan at 6.23 percent.

A 50-year mortgage doesn’t improve affordability if house prices increase as a consequence. In a supply-constrained market, a 50-year mortgage may simply increase purchasing power, which will quickly be capitalized into higher home prices. House prices need to rise just three percent due to the availability of the longer loan to offset that $65 in monthly savings. In this case, the primary result would be higher prices, thus benefiting sellers rather than improving access to homeownership.

And even if a borrower manages to capture some short-term savings, the homebuyer pays a steep price in lost equity. If a homebuyer stays in their mortgage for seven years, they would accumulate $5,400 in monthly savings from the lower monthly payment of a 50-year loan. However, because borrowers repay principal much more slowly in the longer loan, they would earn $31,000 less in equity over the same period compared to the 30-year loan. On a cash basis, they are out $25,600. Where did the money go? To pay that additional amount in interest.

This equity drain gets worse the longer the homeowner remains in the half-century mortgage. By year 15, the homeowner would have accumulated $12,000 in savings from the lower monthly payment but lost $87,000 in equity. For perspective, a borrower with a 30-year loan would own their home free and clear after making all the required payments over the loan term, but – after those three decades—a 50-year mortgage holder still would owe over $300,000 in principal, which is 75 percent of the original loan balance. The extra interest paid over the 30-year period is an astronomical $279,000. The households that can least afford to give up equity and pay more in interest are lower-income, minority, and first-time homebuyers.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 113 Comments

So much for spring?

Posted on January 25, 2026 by grim

From Newsweek:

US housing market gets three bleak signs in first month of 2026

After a year marked by elevated mortgage rates, multifaceted affordability issues and resultingly weak buyer demand, the opening weeks of 2026 have already offered several concerning signals regarding the health of the U.S. housing market.

Experts who spoke with Newsweek say they are cautiously optimistic that conditions could improve compared to 2025, but believe fragility will remain the watchword as broader economic issues continue to weigh on the sector.

According to a report released Wednesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the number of homes going under contract unexpectedly plummeted in December—the pending home sales index falling by 9.3 percent compared to a forecast drop of just 0.3 percent.

Some analysts even anticipated a slight gain last month, but the drop to a five-month low marks the steepest slide since April 2020 at the outset of the Covid pandemic. Pending sales declined in all four regions—South, Midwest, Northeast and West—month-over-month, and were down 3 percent nationwide on an annual basis.

“The housing sector is not out of the woods yet,” wrote NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun. “After several months of encouraging signs in pending contracts and closed sales, the December new contract figures have dampened the short-term outlook.”
…
A new analysis from the real estate brokerage Redfin has revealed that there were over 600,000 more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in December, a 47 percent disparity, which marks an all-time high in records going back to 2013.

The gap increased 7.1 percent from November, and was largest in Austin, Texas, as well as in several Florida metros. While providing more leverage to buyers, as Redfin notes, this creates serious difficulty for those now competing to sell their properties to an increasingly shallow pool of prospective homeowners.

Redfin also revealed that the total number of buyers fell 5.9 percent in December to around 1.3 million—the steepest drop since early 2023 and reaching the lowest level since 2013.
…
Many experts have diagnosed the issues with America’s housing market as largely inventory-linked. Despite weak buyer demand and a surplus of sellers, years of sluggish construction and homeowners “locking in” at lower rates have kept prices elevated and pushed supply at least as low demand across much of the U.S.

And recent data reveals that housing inventory growth has slowed dramatically from the summer. According to HousingWire, inventory growth sank to 10 percent on an annual basis in December, down from 33 percent in mid-2025.

“More supply means less price growth and better affordability,” wrote Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, which also found that inventory declined in the opening days of 2026.

“The inventory recovery has slowed meaningfully,” Jones told Newsweek, pointing to data from Realtor.com showing a similar slowdown in growth to just 9.5 percent year over year—the weakest annual gain in nearly two years.

“Limited inventory continues to constrain buyer choice and transaction volume, even as demand remains uneven,” she said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 306 Comments

Not many in the Northeast either

Posted on January 24, 2026 by grim

From FastCompany:

106 housing markets are seeing falling home prices—and not a single one is in the Midwest

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 141 Comments

So much for stabilization

Posted on January 23, 2026 by grim

From Wolf Street:

Pending Home Sales Plunge across the US. Midwest Sees Worst Sales on Record, Northeast 2nd Worst

Pending home sales, which track the number of contracts signed in December, plunged by 9.3% seasonally adjusted from November, to the lowest level for any December on record in the data by the National Association of Realtors, which goes back to 2010. Compared to December 2010, during the Housing Bust, pending sales were down by 21.5%.

The market is now well into its fourth year of the collapse in transactions, and there has simply been no improvement.

Pending home sales compared to the Decembers in prior years (historic data via YCharts):

  • 2024: -3.0% (year-over-year)
  • 2023: -8.1%
  • 2022: -5.9%
  • 2021: -38.2%
  • 2020: -43.2%
  • 2019: -30.6%.
    …
    In the Northeast, pending sales plunged by 11.0% month-to-month, to the second-worst level of sales on record.
  • Compared to the Decembers of prior years:
  • 2024: -3.6% (year-over-year)
  • 2023: -3.5%
  • 2022: -6.0%
  • 2021: -36.5%
  • 2020: -44.5%
  • 2019: -33.9%.
Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 117 Comments