Dear Mom & Dad…

Posted on April 27, 2025 by grim

From Business Insider:

5 years ago, only 85 US cities had starter homes that cost at least $1 million. Now there are 233.

The typical price of a starter home was $1 million or higher in 233 US cities last month, a new report from Zillow found.

To define starter home prices, Zillow looked at estimated home values toward the bottom of the market in each city, between the 5th and 35th percentiles for each area.

The real-estate listings site found that the typical price of starter homes in at least one city in half of all US states reached $1 million or higher.

The typical price for a starter home nationally stood at $192,514 — well under $1 million. However, the Zillow data shows just how expensive homes have become since 2020, including in states like Rhode Island and Minnesota that aren’t historically known for ultra-pricey real estate. Five years ago, only 85 cities had typical starter homes costing $1 million and up.

California led Zillow’s 2025 list of places with the most expensive starter homes, with 113 cities where the typical one is $1 million or higher. New York, with 32 cities, and New Jersey, with 20, followed.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 3 Comments

Tippy Top?

Posted on April 25, 2025 by grim

From CNBC:

March home sales drop to their slowest pace since 2009

Higher mortgage rates and concern over the broader economy are making for a weak start to the all-important spring housing market.

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009.

Sales were 2.4% lower than in March 2024 and slumped across all regions month to month. They fell hardest in the West, the priciest region of the country, down more than 9%. The West, however, was the only region to see a year-over-year gain, due to strong activity in the Rocky Mountain states, where job growth is strong.

This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”

Sales fell despite a sharp increase in available listings. At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units for sale, an increase of nearly 20% from March 2024. At the current sales pace, that is equivalent to a 4-month supply, which is still on the lean side. A 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 189 Comments

Is it really collusion if the data is public?

Posted on April 24, 2025 by grim

From Reuters:

New Jersey sues RealPage, says collusion with landlords drives up rents

New Jersey sued the property management software company RealPage, accusing it and 10 of the state’s largest landlords of conspiring to drive up residential rents, violating federal and state antitrust laws and New Jersey consumer fraud laws.

The complaint filed on Wednesday by state Attorney General Matthew Platkin said the defendants, including AvalonBay Communities, illegally used RealPage’s revenue management software and algorithms to inflate rents for apartments in multifamily properties.

New Jersey said the defendants also quietly exchanged non-public data such as lease prices, amenities, concessions offered, property values and housing inventory, in order to align pricing and avoid competition to lower rents.

The state said the collusion has inflated rents for hundreds of thousands of residents, with half of low-income renters paying more than 30% of their gross incomes toward rent. Many real estate and financial experts recommend a 30% limit.

“This lawsuit is about putting a stop to corporate greed at its worst,” said Jeremy Hollander, acting director of New Jersey’s division of consumer affairs. “The housing market in New Jersey is already stacked in favor of landlords but the defendants wanted more.”
…
A spokeswoman, Jennifer Bowcock, added that the software is designed to comply with housing laws.

“The claims brought by the New Jersey attorney general are devoid of merit and will do nothing to make housing more affordable,” Bowcock said in an email. “New Jersey should stop scapegoating pro-competitive technology.”

Posted in Crisis, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 153 Comments

Doh!

Posted on April 23, 2025 by grim

From the prestigious journal of economics and social commentary … Cracked:

No Middle-Class Family Can Live Like ‘The Simpsons’ Anymore, Census Shows

Over the past 36 seasons, The Simpsons has given us episodes about elaborate monorail scams, gun-toting babies and aliens from the planet Rigel 7, but in 2025, the most implausible aspect of the show just might be the family’s comfortable lifestyle.

Homer and Marge are able to raise three children on a single income, all while maintaining two cars and a house so massive that they’ve hardly set foot in one of the rooms in nearly four decades. Not to mention how the family is able to take spontaneous vacations to exotic locations and ultra-violent theme parks. 

But, according to Australia’s ABC News, the U.S. census data from 2025 illustrates that the show “no longer represents ordinary America.” For one thing, when the animated series first premiered back in 1989, “the ordinary American family household was comprised of 3.16 people — typically two parents and up to two young children.” But in the “decades since, those numbers have slowly been declining as American families have chosen to remain smaller.” Although, to be fair, the Simpsons didn’t exactly plan to have so many kids. 
…
And the Simpson family’s financial situation is harder to swallow than a jagged metal Krusty O. “For a patriarchal father of a family to be able to provide for (his family) have a double-storey home, take the family on holiday, buy a new car every few years — that was normal for many white, middle-class Americans and that is no longer the case,” Taveira added. 

This was already becoming a thing of the past when the show debuted. “It was decreasingly the case in 1989 and even less-so now,” Taveira suggested. “While the median income of families has risen, inequality means that fewer people have that amount of money.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

$500k doesn’t get you paradise

Posted on April 22, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

The price of paradise: New Jersey’s staggering housing market

If you’ve been house-hunting lately in New Jersey, you probably didn’t need a national ranking to tell you it’s expensive. But just in case you were wondering, yep, we officially made the top 10.

In an article on the subject on, New Jersey comes in at No. 6 on the list of most expensive states to buy a home, with an average home value of $508,430. And honestly? I’m not shocked. Disappointed, yes. Surprised? Not at all.

Listen, New Jersey deserves to be praised. Between our proximity to New York City and Philly, gorgeous (and in-demand) coastal towns, and the kind of public schools and job opportunities people move for, it kind of makes sense.

Add in our infamous property taxes, and you’ve got the perfect storm for sky-high prices.

The problem is, it’s become nearly impossible for anybody who is not wealthy to buy a home here.

Here’s the full top 10 list:

🏚 1. Hawaii – $856,327

🏚 2. California – $782,695

🏚 3. Massachusetts – $609,415

🏚 4. Utah – $518,241

🏚 5. Washington – $588,986

🏚 6. New Jersey – $508,430

🏚 7. Colorado – $548,602

🏚 8. Oregon – $497,249

🏚 9. New Hampshire – $463,091

🏚 10. New York – $458,072

Even though we’ve got some of the highest median wages in the country, it still feels like owning a home here is getting further out of reach. And with the U.S. median home price now sitting at $420,800, that extra $80K in Jersey hits hard.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 80 Comments

NJ Loses Jobs in March

Posted on April 21, 2025 by grim

From NJBIA:

NJ Hiring Slows in March as Jobless Rate Ticks Up to 4.7% 

New Jersey had a net loss of 2,700 jobs during the month of March and the state’s unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.7%, according to preliminary U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics datareleased Thursday by the state labor officials. 

The 0.1 percentage point rise in the state’s unemployment is the first increase in the jobless rate since May of 2024.  New Jersey’s 4.7% unemployment rate also exceeds the national rate, which was 4.2% in March. 

Total New Jersey nonfarm employment was 4,393,800. Two of nine private industry sectors recorded job gains in March compared to February: education and health services (+2,700) and other services (+1,000). The public sector gained 700 jobs. 

Job losses occurred in leisure and hospitality (-3,600); construction (-1,200); professional and business services (-1,000); manufacturing (-600); financial activities (-400); trade, transportation, and utilities (-100); and information (-100). 

The government’s preliminary job estimates for February were also downwardly revised by 5,500 jobs for a gain of 13,700 jobs instead of the 19,200 previously reported for that month. The revision did not affect the 4.6% state unemployment rate for February. 

Over the past 12 months, New Jersey has added 33,800 nonfarm jobs, with 76% of those in the private sector. Between March 2024 and March 2025 five private sector industries had gains: private education and health services (+35,800), other services (+2,600), trade, transportation, and utilities (+900), manufacturing (+500), and financial activities (+100). 

Year-over-year losses were recorded in these four sectors: information (-4,900); professional and business services (-4,900); construction (-2,400); and leisure and hospitality (-1,900). 

The public sector has recorded a gain of 8,000 jobs over the same 12-month period. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 95 Comments

Uh Oh…

Posted on April 20, 2025 by grim

From Zillow:

Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast (April 2025)

Zillow’s latest forecast indicates a decline in home values coupled with an increase in existing home sales for 2025. While mortgage rates are in an especially unpredictable period, barring unforeseen shocks Zillow expects rates to end the year near 6.5%. 

Home values are projected to drop by 1.9% this year – a revision from the previous expectation of a 0.6% increase. The combination of rising available listings and elevated mortgage rates is signaling potential price drops by year’s end. With increased supply, buyers are gaining more options and time to decide, while sellers are cutting prices at record levels to attract bids. 

Existing home sales are projected to reach 4.2 million in 2025, representing a 3.3% increase from 2024. As spring arrives and the home shopping season heats up, Zillow anticipates a temporary surge in sales, followed by a normal seasonal slowdown. If home prices soften and mortgage rates decline, existing home sales could benefit from improved affordability by the end of the year. 

Zillow expects single-family rents to rise 3.1% in 2025, while multifamily rents are expected to tick up 2.1%. Both would represent slower annual growth than current rates and long-term norms. As apartment construction slows down and single-family home development increases, the gap between single-family and multifamily rents is likely to continue narrowing. Affordability challenges and economic uncertainty are putting pressure on the rental market, leading potential buyers to delay their purchases. As a result, demand for single-family rentals is expected to grow, as these would-be buyers choose to rent until the for-sale market becomes more affordable.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 25 Comments

Of course NJ knows how to negotiate

Posted on April 18, 2025 by grim

From ESPN (I have no idea, but I’ll take it):

New Jersey Homebuyers Rank Among America’s Top Negotiators

New Home prices have been on the rise across the United States. In New Jersey, there has been a 12.5% increase in all types of properties on the market over the last 18 months.

A major reason for these price surges is because of limited inventory. There are not enough homes on the market to meet the demands of the market.

Also, many homeowners are holding onto low mortgage rates they locked in years ago, so fewer people are selling because they do not want to get caught in the inflation surge.

But despite these housing market price increases, there is some good news for New Jersey home buyers according to new research from Agent Advice.

The research team at AgentAdvice.com surveyed 3,000 homeowners in all 50 states in America to find out their negotiations for new homes. They found that 54 percent of homebuyers admitted to walking away from making a deal when the seller refused to negotiate a lower price.

New Jersey Home Buyers Saved the fourth most average money thanks to negotiations before making a deal for their new property. NJ buyers saved an average of $19,634 thanks to negotiations before signing the dotted line.

The average home price listing in New Jersey is $503,432 so negotiating a savings of almost $20,000 off the sale price is significant.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 129 Comments

Monmouth foreclosures up (but the number is tiny)

Posted on April 17, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

This county had the sharpest increase in foreclosures in NJ

If you’ve been following the housing market in New Jersey, you already know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Between rising interest rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty, it’s been tough out there for both buyers and homeowners.

But it’s been a long time since we’ve heard about rising foreclosures. It’s almost as though foreclosures disappeared when interest rates were low. After all, those monthly payments with three or four percent interest were very affordable!

But foreclosures are back, and one county, in particular, is really feeling the pinch right now. And the latest numbers prove it.

According to a new report from PropertyShark, Monmouth County just saw the sharpest increase in foreclosures in the entire state. Foreclosures in Monmouth more than doubled compared to this time last year (a 105% year-over-year spike), making it the most active foreclosure spot in New Jersey so far this year.

Now, not all the news is bad. Sussex County had the biggest drop in foreclosures (down 56%), and counties like Morris and Middlesex also saw a pretty big decline. Hudson and Hunterdon counties didn’t budge much at all and stayed flat.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending, Shore Real Estate | 49 Comments

NJ economy softening?

Posted on April 15, 2025 by grim

From nj.com:

Layoffs in N.J. double. More than 3,600 jobs are gone this year. 

New Jersey saw twice as many layoffs in the first quarter of 2025 than it did last year, even before tariff fears, according to federal labor statistics.

There were 28 businesses in the state that announced layoffs of a combined 3,618 workers in the first quarter of this year. The layoffs were more than double the 1,753 layoffs announced by 118 companies during the same period in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The surge in layoffs comes amidst concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the nation’s product imports and the governor’s race in New Jersey. 
…
According to federal data, the level of people quitting has leveled off after it peaked during the so-called Great Resignation, when many quit work and found better employment opportunities immediately after the pandemic.

The level of job openings has also softened, federal data shows, after a spring 2022 peak.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 135 Comments

At least we still have the house

Posted on April 12, 2025 by grim

From the WSJ:

Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them

The extra half a million dollars seemed to come so easily—on paper, at least. 

In 2021, Nikole Flores and Rocco Savage bought an 1,800-square-foot home in Miami Shores, Fla., for $875,000. The real-estate market rose, they added a pool and pergola, and today the house is worth an estimated $1.35 million.

After accounting for mortgage payments, their home equity—the portion of their home they own outright—grew by about $525,000. But there was another surprise: Their property taxes have increased by more than 50% since the purchase after multiple reassessments, to nearly $21,000 annually.

They know this is a fortunate problem to have, especially since they can still pay their bills. But the higher property taxes have pushed them to trim discretionary spending. 

“If property taxes continue to rise, I feel like even if I pay off my house I’m essentially still paying rent,” said Savage. 

Americans have hit an odd contradiction: They have amassed $35 trillion of wealth in their homes, yet many feel less well off because of it.

Home equity has climbed nearly 80% since early 2020—up from $19.5 trillion—thanks to a turbocharged rise in house prices. That was about twice the rise in financial wealth including stocks and bonds as of the end of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve.
…

Home equity is calculated by taking the estimated value of a home and subtracting the mortgage debt attached to it. The value isn’t locked in until a sale. But rough estimates are widely available thanks to modeling tools like Zillow’s Zestimate. Checking it has become an everyday obsession of many homeowners.

The average homeowner with a mortgage had $313,000 of equity entering 2025, according to ICE Mortgage Technology.

Posted in Crisis, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages | 154 Comments

As goes stocks?

Posted on April 11, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Do stock market’s ups and downs impact NJ’s real estate prices? We asked the experts

The stock market experienced a historic rally on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on most tariffs. The rally followed days of dips and volatility.

The ups and downs have those looking to buy or sell a home asking if the stock market will affect the real estate market.

The short and simple answer is yes. But how?

The stock market is essentially a prediction of future corporate earnings, meaning that it is typically an indicator of current economic conditions. Because of this, the real estate market can be impacted based on the confidence, or lack thereof, that the stock market gives consumers.

“The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market,” said Bankrate’s Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride. “With that being said, even people that aren’t invested in the stock market tend to look at it as a barometer of how things are going, and if the market falls suddenly, it tends to dent consumer confidence.”

McBride said that a strong stock market creates a “wealth effect.” This means that when stock prices are rising, consumers tend to spend more money because they feel more optimistic about the state of the economy.
…
“If the stock market is falling because the economy is weakening and interest rates end up also falling, there might actually be more real estate activity, mostly from the investors’ perspective because it’s cheaper to finance a property. But the driving force there is the backdrop of falling interest rates,” he said. “Or if the stock market is going up and it’s also an environment where interest rates are really high, that could crimp homebuying activity because the cost of financing is very high. So again, the broader backdrop is the main driving force, but the stock market can certainty contribute to outcomes depending on other variables as well.”
…
“Build up your savings and pay down debt. Job security also has a lot to do with it, too. That’s why when the economy is weak, you tend to see a drop in home sales. Nobody wants to take that risk and take on a big obligation if they’re not feeling secure in their job. So I think those are the really important variables,” he said. “If your job security is no different now than it was a month or two ago and if you continue to save money and pay down debt, then a 20% drop in the stock market doesn’t impact your decision.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 86 Comments

Here comes the inventory?

Posted on April 9, 2025 by grim

From the Bergen Record:

Despite still dealing with low inventory, NJ saw a spike in active home listings in March

As we get further into spring, real estate activity across the Garden State continues to grow. And while our region continues to battle a lack of housing inventory and rapidly growing home prices, New Jersey still experienced a decent spike in active home listings and a minor increase in home prices in March.

The state had a total of 13,143 active home listings in March, including 9,000 new listings. This was a 14.57% increase from last year and a 10.9% increase from February 2024, according to Realtor.com’s monthly market data. New Jersey also had a median listing price of $550,000, which was 0.18% higher than last year and 0.93% higher than February 2025.

When it comes to the number of days active listings stayed on the market, listings in the Garden State typically stayed up for about 33 days. This was 8.33% less time than the same period last year and 25% less time than February 2025, Realtor.com said.
…
Thirteen of New Jersey’s 21 counties had an increase in new listings compared with March 2024, and four counties saw no change. But when compared with February 2025, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties had a more than 10% increase in new listings.

With 464 new listings, Morris was the only county in North Jersey that had a slight decrease in new listings (-0.85%) compared with this time last year. Similarly, Bergen County had 756 new listings, which was about the same as what the county had in March 2024. All of the remaining North Jersey counties saw increases.

  • Passaic: 284 new listings (12.7%).
  • Essex: 556 new listings (21.93%).
  • Sussex: 220 new listings (1.85%).
  • Hudson: 524 new listings (39.36%).

When compared with February, all six North Jersey counties saw increases in new listings as our region’s real estate market continues to pick up this spring.

  • Bergen: 27.7%.
  • Passaic: 40.59%.
  • Morris: 54.67%.
  • Essex: 34.95%.
  • Sussex: 52.78%.
  • Hudson: 39.36%.
Posted in Demographics, New Jersey Real Estate | 191 Comments

Deal time?

Posted on April 7, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Builders sitting on a pile of unsold homes are slashing prices and offering mortgage rate deals

Homebuilders are sitting on the most unsold homes since the depths of the Great Recession, giving buyers a chance to snag deals — provided they’re in the right part of the country.

As of February, builders had completed some 119,000 homes that weren’t yet sold. To lure buyers, they’re dangling incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and money toward upgrades. In some cases, they’re slashing prices altogether, something they usually try to avoid because it hurts earlier buyers.

Most large builders aim to sell homes before they finish the construction. But they also typically build at least some properties “on spec,” without a buyer lined up. Spec properties, often called “move-in ready” or “inventory homes” by the industry, appeal to buyers who can’t wait months before they move and can help builders manage their costs during uncertain times.

Inventory has been steadily growing since early 2022, after builders that rushed to meet pandemic-driven demand ran up against higher mortgage rates and worsening affordability that shut out potential buyers. While that means the market has turned in buyers’ favor now, it may not last. Many builders are now slowing down construction activity while they clear their backlog.

“We fell pretty far in terms of prices,” said Scott Turner, the owner of Riverside Homes, a spec builder in Austin, Texas. He estimates that home prices in the urban parts of the city where he focuses dropped 30% from their peak to their trough. “That’s left builders with inventory that’s very difficult to sell. What that does, obviously, is have a chilling effect on new starts.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 188 Comments

What’s going to happen to the spring market?

Posted on April 5, 2025 by grim

From NPR:

More homes are finally hitting the spring market. Will buyers take the plunge?

It’s springtime, and “For Sale” signs are popping up in front of homes across the country.

But with so much uncertainty in the economy, it’s an open question whether the spring housing market will be hot … or not. Let’s check out the forecast.

It’s certainly not the cheapest time to buy a home. The average 30-year mortgage rate is now 6.65%, down a bit from January, but still pretty high.

Many analysts predict that mortgage rates will linger around this level for now, especially since the Federal Reserve has indicated it’s unlikely to cut interest rates until later this year.

Selma Hepp, chief economist at real estate analysis firm Cotality, says market volatility could bring down mortgage rates. That’s because mortgages typically follow the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are affected by investors’ worries about the economy.

“Because of the concerns around a slowing job market, because of concerns maybe about rising risks of a recession,” Hepp says.

But there are other factors keeping mortgage rates high – among them, inflationary policies like tariffs.

Another deterrent for buyers is the elevated cost to buy a home. The median home price has shot up 47% in just the last five years.

Last year was the slowest existing home sales market since 1995. It’s wasn’t that people didn’t want to buy — there simply wasn’t much for sale.

The big question now is whether a frozen market can begin to thaw. Signs suggest things are starting to shift, with more inventory coming on the market. 

In February, there were 17% more existing homes for sale compared to last year, followed by a 10% increase in new listings in March compared to a year ago.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 91 Comments