It’s better here

Posted on November 7, 2025 by grim

From MPA:

Inventory surge cools US home prices, but Northeast markets stay strong: Cotality

Home prices across the United States continued to lose steam in September as inventory reached its highest level since 2019, according to new data from Cotality.

The firm’s Home Price Index showed national year-over-year price growth slowing to just 1.2%, down from 2.7% in September 2024 and well below the double-digit gains seen during the pandemic boom. 

The number of homes for sale jumped 15% year-over-year, marking the largest increase in six years and giving buyers more options, but also putting downward pressure on prices.

The national median home price stood at $395,000, while the income required to afford a median-priced home hit $90,100—underscoring the affordability challenge for many buyers.

“Much like the K-shaped trend seen in overall consumer spending—driven largely by higher income groups—lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions. This is leading to weaker demand for homes and downward pressure on prices,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Cotality’s chief economist.

While the national picture points to cooling, the Northeast continues to stand out. Connecticut and New Jersey led the country in annual price growth, with both states posting gains in the high single digits.

“Major Northeastern metro areas such as Boston, New York, and Philadelphia remain resilient thanks to sectors like finance, biotech, healthcare, and education. Strong and diversified local job markets continue to draw high-earning professionals and give them the income stability needed to purchase expensive homes,” Hepp said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 56 Comments

No Fresh Meat

Posted on November 6, 2025 by grim

From MSN:

America’s first-time homebuyers are disappearing. That’s bad news for real estate.

By the time she turned 40, Suzie Payne had resigned herself to the fact that she would never be able to buy a home.

While her friends spent their 30s checking off that prized milestone — often with help from their parents — Payne struggled to save money while raising a daughter on her own. Home prices in Portland, Oregon, where she lived, felt out of reach long before the pandemic hit. Then Payne lost her job. When mortgage rates plummeted in the summer of 2020, she was more worried about meeting her basic needs than spending her Saturdays staking out open houses.
…
Things have been headed in this direction for a few years now — older, deep-pocketed buyers are better equipped to handle the double whammy of higher borrowing rates and costlier homes. Gen Xers and baby boomers remain active in the real estate market, while the share of purchases by first-time buyers has dwindled. But never before has the divide appeared so stark. This delayed timeline could have lifelong consequences for today’s young people: years of missed wealth-building opportunities, fewer moves, even a reevaluation of what constitutes a “starter home.” Welcome to the age of the geriatric homebuyer.

The typical first-time homebuyer was just 29 when the NAR began tracking the median age in 1981. The metric edged slightly higher in the four decades that followed, never ticking past 33. Then, between mid-2021 and mid-2022, it spiked to 36. There was a bit of cope around the sudden jump. Maybe it was just elder millennials — long labeled as laggards since graduating into the Great Recession — finally catching up. But even that cohort felt squeezed. Mortgage rates had more than doubled, homes were more expensive, and new construction after the Great Recession had failed to keep pace with the surge of young buyers. I talked to one millennial back then who framed the scenario in bleak terms: “We’re royally screwed.”

Things have only gotten worse. First-time buyers accounted for a record-low 21% of home purchases last year, NAR data shows — roughly half of the historical average. The entry-level buyer has been effectively “removed from this housing market,” Jessica Lautz, the NAR’s deputy chief economist, tells me.

“We have a very large young-adult population who are really just seeing the door shut on them for homeownership,” Lautz says. “I think it speaks to the gridlock that we’ve seen in the housing market.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 153 Comments

Flip flop

Posted on November 5, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

Democrats flip 6 N.J. counties back to blue, cementing Sherrill’s sweep for governor

Six counties that voted for Republican Donald Trump in the 2024 presidial election have flipped blue, early election results show, helping to cement Democrat Mikie Sherrill’s victory for governor of New Jersey. Five of those counties also backed Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the 2021 gubernatorial election. 

Gloucester, Cumberland, Atlantic, Morris, Passaic and Hunterdon are all backing Sherill as of 10 p.m. on Election Night, Associated Press vote results show. 

The Associated Press called the race for Sherrill, a Congresswoman from Morris County, around 9:30 p.m. on Election Night. She will be the second woman, and first Democrat woman, to lead New Jersey.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 133 Comments

Hollowing Out

Posted on November 4, 2025 by grim

From Fortune:

Both subprime and super prime loans are on the rise, signs of a K-shaped economy that is a ‘prescription for real trouble’

The share of consumers taking out the riskiest form of loans has reached its highest peak this decade, a sign of growing financial stress for many Americans.

The share of consumers taking on subprime loans accounted for 14.4% of borrowers in 2025’s third quarter, up from 13.9% from the same period in 2024 and the highest since 2019, according to a TransUnion report released Monday, which analyzes consumer credit data. About 25% of the U.S. population has a FICO credit score below 660, meaning they are subprime, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk, citing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The share of consumers in the subprime credit risk category fell during the pandemic as government stimulus helped many Americans pay down their debt. But as the subprime tier swells once more, it adds to signs that many are facing increased financial pressure: The percentage of subprime borrowers at least 60 days late on auto loan payments has reached 6.43%, double what it was in 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. Per property data firm ATTOM, August marked the sixth straight month of year-over-year rising home foreclosure filings.

But the struggles of many borrowers don’t tell the full story. TransUnion also reported a growing share of super prime borrowers—which increased from 37.1% in 2019’s third quarter to 40.9% in the same period this year. The credit market has also expanded, growing the number of super prime borrowers by 16 million since 2019. These borrowers have higher credit scores and are likely to get more favorable loan terms, such as lower loan interest rates and higher credit limits.

Additionally, consumer-level delinquencies declined seven basic points year over year to 2.37%, indicating strengthening consumer credit health, the report noted.

“We are seeing a divergence in consumer credit risk, with more individuals moving toward either end of the credit risk spectrum,” Jason Laky, executive vice president and head of financial services for TransUnion, said in the report. “This shift suggests that while many consumers are navigating the current economic climate well, others may be facing financial strain.” 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 131 Comments

Dallas bank forecloses, skips step called “checking for dead people”

Posted on November 3, 2025 by grim

From WIFR:

New homeowner finds body in house shortly after buying property at auction, police say

Residents in one Texas community are expressing regret over not doing more to check on a neighbor who was found dead inside her home.

The Homes of Addison Place are a group of townhomes built in 1983.

A unit on Planters Row was sold at a Dallas County foreclosure auction on Tuesday.

Sixty-nine-year-old Pauline Williams was listed as the owner in default of her bank loan.

But police say that when the new owner who bought the house at the auction went to the property for the first time on Wednesday, they found the mailbox full, the side yard overgrown with weeds and Williams’ body in the living room just feet from the front door.

“Very regrettable that I and my neighbors didn’t check on her,” Gary McIntyre said.

McIntyre lives next to the home, while Austin Mathews lives down the street.

“Reminds me to check on my neighbors a little bit more frequently and just try to be friendly and hope that doesn’t happen to you one day,” Mathews said.

It’s not yet known how long Williams had been dead or how a foreclosure proceeded so quickly without someone trying to physically contact her or knock on the door before the home was sold at auction.

County officials have not provided any additional details and the loan companies involved have not responded to a request for comment.

The Dallas County Medical Examiner’s Office is continuing to determine how, and how long ago, the woman died.

“Just regrettable that we were not being good neighbors,” McIntyre added.

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 52 Comments

Home Thieves

Posted on November 1, 2025 by grim

From nj.com:

Realty company to pay $2.8 million settlement over predatory homeowner agreements

A Florida-based company agreed to pay $2.8 million to settle allegations it preyed on more than 1,200 struggling New Jersey homeowners, forcing them into “unconscionable” financial agreements, officials with the state Attorney General’s Office said. 

The Attorney General’s Office filed a civil lawsuit in 2023 accusing the company of violating the state’s Consumer Fraud Protection Act by making unsolicited telemarketing calls to New Jersey homeowners with financial struggles during the Covid-19 pandemic without being registered as telemarketers and binding homeowners into predatory lending terms, officials said.

The company, MV Realty, offered the residents quick access to cash through so-called Homeowner Benefit Agreements between $500 and $5,000, officials said. 

MV Realty offered the money upfront under an agreement to serve as their future real estate agency, officials said. 

Homeowners were told by the company that the money was not a loan, and that there was “no obligation” to pay the money back to the company, officials said. 

The company failed to disclose that the program operated as a high-interest mortgage loan with a 40-year contract term, that a lien was placed on their home, and that the agreement was binding on the homeowner’s heirs, officials said. 

The company also failed to disclose early termination fees if the property was listed with another real estate agent, the title was transferred to a family member, heirs tried to sell the home or the homeowners tried to cancel the deal, officials said. 

Authorities said 140 people paid early termination fees between $575 and $42,000 to get out of the deals.

Posted in Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending, Unrest | 27 Comments

Wouldn’t go that far..

Posted on October 31, 2025 by grim

From the Daily Mail:

Panic as home values plummet in half of the biggest US cities

Nearly half of America’s biggest cities are now seeing home prices fall — a sign that cracks are spreading through the once-booming housing market. 

Across the US, the cost of a single-family home rose just 1.5 percent in August compared with a year earlier, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller index. 

That marks a slowdown from July’s 1.7 percent increase — and the weakest annual growth since 2023, when soaring mortgage rates and poor affordability briefly sent prices into reverse.  

Of the 20 major metros tracked by Case-Shiller, nine recorded outright price declines, while 13 rose more slowly than the national average. 

‘August’s data shows US home prices continuing to slow,’ Nicholas Godec, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, told Realtor.com. 

‘For the fourth straight month, home values have lost ground to inflation, meaning homeowners are seeing their real wealth decline even as nominal prices inch higher.’ 

Florida and Texas were hit hardest. Tampa saw the steepest drop — down 3.3 percent year-on-year — and has now notched 10 straight months of falling prices.  

The city, along with others across Florida, is now officially a buyer’s markets. 
…
‘Regionally, markets in the Northeast and Midwest continue to perform relatively better, supported by tighter resale supply and steadier demand,’ said Smith. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 113 Comments

Will Amazon layoffs crash the Washington market?

Posted on October 30, 2025 by grim

From KIRO:

Amazon layoff announcement affecting real estate market

The real estate market is already starting to feel the impact of the massive layoffs at Amazon as some homeowners and buyers begin scrambling to deal with the fallout.

KIRO 7 spoke with a pair of real estate brokers whose clients were among those laid off. They are already getting calls about selling their homes or calling off their hunt for a new one.

“We’ve been fielding calls left and right since the very, very early morning,” Adriano Tori, a real estate broker in Bellevue, said.

Tori, the founder and CEO of RexMont Real Estate, has been buying and selling homes for more than 20 years. In that time, he has seen plenty of layoffs and turbulent times.

A shakeup like this, though, is rare.

“We haven’t seen anything of this magnitude in the last few years,” he said.

Tori told KIRO 7 he is already getting calls from clients who were laid off from Amazon, trying to figure out how best to move forward. Some are considering renting their home to supplement their lost income. Others are considering selling and moving on to a new city in hopes of finding a new job.

“These new developments in the job market will, at least for the next few months, make it more of a buyer’s market,” Tori said.
…
So, will these layoffs affect housing prices around the Sound? According the Tori, the biggest drops in prices will be among houses priced between $1 million and $2 million, not more reasonably-priced homes.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 107 Comments

Top?

Posted on October 29, 2025 by grim

From Tap:

Are We Nearing the Top of Home Prices in Northern New Jersey?

In August, the data showed more homes for sale in Northern New Jersey than we had in both 2023 and 2024. The trend was following the same path as 2022 and even looked like we might actually exceed more inventory than we’ve seen at that point in time. But instead, inventory took a sharp turn downward, falling back to the same levels we saw in 2023, matching the lowest amount of inventory in 4 years.

But that momentum didn’t last as September’s inventory data showed a sudden drop, bringing us back to a 3-year low last seen in 2023 – as I spoke about in last week’s article.
…
Bergen and Essex Counties are both down about 3% from last week, Hudson County is down 5%, and Passaic County, which was up 7% last week, is now down to even with last year at just 72. Morris County saw the biggest change, down 9% from last week and now sitting a massive 12% below last year.

This drop in homes for sale, combined with lower interest rates, has caused a quick rebound in sale prices since prices seemed to be getting closer to even with last year. In fact, when looking at September’s overall data in our area, the median sale price fell below the previous year for the first time since 2022!

Meanwhile, homes are also taking longer to sell. That tells me that there is more buyer hesitation and/or more homes are being listed too high. I believe these are all signs of a market struggling to adjust and it hasn’t been a smooth ride so far.
…
Based on what I’m seeing, and hoping, we are still inching closer toward the top of the market. Prices remain strong, but the pace is slowing down, which shows in the growing number of days homes sit before selling.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate | 105 Comments

Prices may have cooled, but not here.

Posted on October 28, 2025 by grim

From Barrons:

Home Prices Likely Cooled in August. That’s Good News for Some Buyers.

Home price growth likely continued to cool in August. That’s good news for some buyers—while others aren’t feeling the same relief.

Home prices nationally likely increased 1.4% in August, according to FactSet consensus estimates for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index measuring changes in 20 of the nation’s large metropolitan areas. If estimates are correct, it will represent the slowest such gain in over two years, historic data show.

The data, which are scheduled to be released Tuesday morning, lags behind other measures of home price growth, such as those released by the National Association of Realtors with its existing-home sales measure. The index is closely watched because of its methodology, which is designed to eliminate influence from factors like home size or type in price changes.

Slower home price growth is a positive for buyers in expensive housing markets—but is little balm for buyers in the northeast and Midwest, where prices are likely to have remained strong. In July, the most recent month for which data is available, prices in New York, Chicago, and Cleveland rose 6.4%, 6.3%, and 4.5% from the year prior, respectively.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 83 Comments

Everyone’s a builder now

Posted on October 27, 2025 by grim

From Politico:

Homebuilders push new frontier for Fannie and Freddie: Construction loans

Homebuilders are using President Donald Trump’s growing calls for government-controlled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to get house construction “going” to push a controversial proposal: getting the mortgage giants to back construction loans.

The industry’s long-desired policy would create a secondary market where certain construction loans, which homebuilders procure to start new housing projects, could be packaged and sold. The move, similar to what Fannie and Freddie already do with home mortgages, could similarly add liquidity to the construction finance market and make lenders comfortable offering more and larger construction loans, which supporters say could spur homebuilding.

“We brought it to the [Federal Housing Finance Agency] director’s attention earlier this year,” said Jim Tobin, president of the National Association of Home Builders, in an interview. “I know he’s looking at it and what role it can play.”

His group has pitched the proposal as a way to expand the housing supply and bring prices down, addressing an affordable housing crisis that Trump has repeatedly drawn attention to. Supporters argue it’s one of the limited options that the federal government has to address housing affordability. But the move would expand Fannie and Freddie’s portfolio to a broader and riskier world of financing and has drawn criticism from some industry experts that it could destabilize the enterprises, which have become pillars of the national economy.

Fannie already supports some construction-to-permanent loans, which combine financing for building a new home with a long-term mortgage, but homebuilders are encouraging the enterprises to look at “acquisition, development and construction” loans, which cover costs starting at purchasing a lot through the building process.
…
But some industry experts are skeptical.

“While it would be helpful to homebuilders for Fannie and Freddie to provide lower cost [acquisition, development and construction] financing, I don’t think that would change the amount of construction much,” housing industry analyst John Burns told POLITICO, adding that that type of financing is already widely available from banks.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Development, Politics | 84 Comments

Peak Agency

Posted on October 25, 2025 by grim

From the Baylor Lariat (?):

America has too many real estate agents

Real estate agents do add value by connecting buyers and sellers more meaningfully than a quick online search, and by taking the lead on contracts and negotiations, which can get complicated. But do these services truly warrant a $60,000 bill for the sale of a million-dollar home (which is frighteningly no longer a jarring number)?

Proponents of the NAR lawsuit, myself included, would say no. And saying that doesn’t mean I want real estate agents to take a pay cut, since their salaries are reasonable. What it does mean, however, is that the total revenue of the real estate industry will shrink, and there must be accordingly fewer agents to share that revenue.

When you realize there are 1.5 million NAR members and possibly up to 3 million licensed real estate agents in the United States, you see part of the reason commissions have stayed so high. That many agents for just over 4 million home sales in 2023 means most agents wouldn’t close enough deals to keep the lights on.

While it’s far from the only factor keeping rates high, the most reasonable answer to this commission problem could be to reduce the number of agents in the market, allowing brokers to make fair compensation while customers aren’t victims of inflated commission rates.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 120 Comments

September home sales tick up

Posted on October 24, 2025 by grim

From Reuters:

US existing home sales hit 7-month high; affordability remains a challenge

U.S. existing home sales increased to a seven-month high in September, but economic uncertainty and a stalled labor market could limit an anticipated boost from easing mortgage rates.

The rise in home resales last month, which was reported by the National Association of Realtors on Thursday, was concentrated in the upper end of the housing market as higher-income households enjoy strong wealth gains thanks to a robust stock market.

Though mortgage rates have declined to one-year lows and housing inventory has improved, economists said affordability remained a challenge for many prospective buyers, especially lower and middle-income households. That problem is being compounded by a hazy economic outlook and lack of hiring by employers against the backdrop of import tariffs.

“We expect existing home sales to move sideways through the end of this year and into early next before improving over the course of 2026 as mortgage rates fall further and the economy and labor market get back on firmer footing,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

Home sales rose 1.5% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units, the highest level since February, the NAR said. The increase was broadly in line with economists’ expectations. Home resales increased in the Northeast, South and West regions, but declined in the Midwest.

Home resales jumped 4.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 68 Comments

Thanks Mamdani

Posted on October 23, 2025 by grim

From Newsweek:

New Jersey Housing Market Could Be Disrupted by Zohran Mamdani

The New Jersey and surrounding housing markets could be impacted by the potential election of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Mamdani’s policies largely aim to break from establishment norms as a democratic socialist, and specific proposals could lead to real estate disruption.
…
The New Jersey and surrounding housing markets could be impacted by the potential election of New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani.

Mamdani’s policies largely aim to break from establishment norms as a democratic socialist, and specific proposals could lead to real estate disruption.

Mamdani’s policy proposals include adding a flat 2 percent tax to New Yorkers who earn above $1 million. He’s also suggested a rent freeze on rent-stabilized apartments and major public housing construction alongside tougher standards for landlords.

Since New York City is a top luxury real estate market, these slew of changes could push some buyers outside of the city, making other markets more expensive as a result.
…
In the third quarter of 2025, the top cities for New York City residents looking to move to—but stay within the metro area—were Toms River, NJ; Yonkers, NY; Brick, NJ; Freehold, NJ; and Jersey City, NJ, according to Realtor.com.

Meanwhile, the top out-of-metro cities New Yorkers consider moving to are Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Orlando, Myrtle Beach, and Naples, Florida.

“The increasing demand for homes in these markets is likely to put upward pressure on home prices,” Realtor.com senior economist Jiayi Xu told Newsweek. “Markets in New Jersey may see the largest impact, as four of the top nearby cities viewed by New Yorkers are located in New Jersey.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Gold Coast, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 93 Comments

If you have to ask…

Posted on October 22, 2025 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

Six New Jersey zip codes among the 100 priciest in the nation, according to PropertyShark data

Six New Jersey zip codes cracked the 100 most expensive zips in the nation, according to the 10th annual ranking of the priciest zip codes in the United States by PropertyShark, a New York-based nationwide real estate data provider.

Alpine’s 07620, destination for rap stars and professional athletes, returned as New Jersey’s most expensive zip code for the ninth time in a decade, boasting a price record of $4.35 million, a mountain-peaking 31% increase year-over-year. The Bergen County destination was the 13th-most expensive zip on the list.

Among the other New Jersey entries to the list, Deal’s 07723 (22nd overall) and Short Hills’ 07078 (57) reached record highs at $3.55 million and $2.42 million, respectively. This is the seventh appearance on the PropertyShark list for Short Hills where the median sales price soared 20%. 

Allenhurst’s 07711 zip joined the ranking for the first time at No. 93 with a $2.15 million median sale price. The two other New Jersey top zips were 08247 in Stone Harbor (57) at $2.55 million and 08202 in Avalon (75) at $2.36 million, both in Cape May County.

In 2025, Miami Beach’s Fisher Island (33109) became the country’s priciest zip code with a $9.5 million median sale price, marking Florida’s first No. 1 finish. At $8.33 million, Atherton, Calif. (94027) was the second-most expensive zip, ending its eight-year run as the country’s leading zip, followed by $5.93 million Sagaponack, N.Y. (11962) at No. 3.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 70 Comments