Tick tick tick

Posted on May 3, 2025 by grim

From Newsweek:

Phoenix Housing Market Faces ‘Mass Sell-off’ as Home Values Plunge

After the dust settled on the pandemic buying frenzy, which massively inflated home prices in the city, property values in Phoenix are collapsing.

Real estate analyst Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure App, warned of a potential incoming crash, as home prices are down 6.9 percent from their peak in June 2022.

“This market is trending down, and trending down fast,” Gerli said in a recent YouTube video.

Newsweek contacted Phoenix Realtors for comment by email on Thursday outside standard office hours.
…
According to Reventure data, home values in the Phoenix metropolitan area were down 1.3 percent in March compared to a year earlier and 0.46 percent from February. They were also down 7.4 percent from their June 2022 peak ($452,466 versus $491,960).

“Phoenix is already starting to experience a housing market correction,” Gerli said in the YouTube video. “However, this correction is going to accelerate over the next 12 months due to a massive pileup of inventory and supply on the market that is now causing sellers to freak out.”

There are 18,701 homes for sale in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area, Reventure data shows—the highest inventory since 2017. This massive growth in supply means there is a sell-off of homes in the city, Gerli said.

“The data is clear. The market in Phoenix is declining, and it’s actually going to get a lot more affordable for you as a buyer, which is the good news here. A declining housing market is going to be bad for some people,” Gerli said, adding, “But it’s going to be good for other people, particularly homebuyers who have been saving up over the last five years.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 60 Comments

March Pending Sales Down YOY

Posted on May 2, 2025 by grim

From HousingWire:

Pending home sales post strong gain in March but lag behind 2024 pace

Recent data hasn’t provided much optimism about the direction of the housing market, but one report suggests better conditions are on the way.

The March reading of the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) clocked in at 76.5, a 6.1% rise compared to February. An index reading of 100 is equal to contract levels in 2001.

It’s the largest monthly increase since December 2023 and was largely buoyed by relatively lower mortgage rates in March, which averaged 6.65%, according to NAR. But it’s a decline of 0.6% year over year, suggesting that market conditions remain subdued. 

“Although pending home sales are slightly down compared with last year, the month-over-month bounce is a step in the right direction,” First American deputy chief economist Odeta Kushi said in a statement. “Despite this cautious optimism, the recent increase in rates and ongoing economic uncertainty may temper this momentum.”

The monthly rise in the index was driven by a 9.8% jump in the South, which had previously been slumping. Pending sales activity in the West (+4.8%) and Midwest (+4.9%) also rose compared to February, while the Northeast saw a decrease of 0.5%.

Similar to the national index, every region but the Midwest fell year over year, with the Northeast (-3%) down the most.

The glimmer of hope in the PHSI follows dismal existing-home sales in March, which fell 2.4% year over year. That decline was also driven by the South, where sales dropped by 4.2%. But new-home sales in March came in surprisingly positive, rising 6% compared to a year ago.

Pending home sales can foreshadow what’s to come in the market, as they tend to precede final sales numbers by a month or two. But data that’s more immediate indicates that there are still bumps ahead.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 68 Comments

What NJ makes, the world takes

Posted on April 30, 2025 by grim

(or is this the prelude to a catastrophic collapse)

From ROI-NJ:

Report: N.J. led nation in total sales volume for industrial space in 1Q

New Jersey topped the nation in total sales volume for industrial space during the first quarter of 2025 totaling $832 million, according to data from real estate data compiler Yardi CommercialEdge. The state also led the Northeast region with yearly rent growth of 11.3%. 

The $832 million in transactions in New Jersey by the end of March was a 60% increase from the $520 million registered a year earlier. Dallas, with $711 million in total sales volume, was second.

The New Jersey market also posted one of the highest industrial sale prices nationally at $256 per square foot, more than doubling the $126 per-square-foot national average. The yearly rent-growth figure of 11.3% lifted in-place rent to $11.74 a square foot. This compares with national in-place rents for industrial space averaged $8.44 per square foot in March, up 6.7% year-over-year.

The report said the strong demand for industrial space in New Jersey is because of the population density of the surrounding region and the robust activity at the Port of New York and New Jersey, one of the nation’s busiest ports.
…
Despite vacancy rates of 9.6% that surpass the national average of 8.5%, the market had the strongest industrial rent growth over the last 12 months. Like most other markets, New Jersey underwent a supply boom in recent years, but the authors of the report believe slowing development and continued demand will lead to falling vacancies once leasing velocity picks up. Between 2022 and 2024, more than 36 million square feet, or 5.9%, of stock of new industrial space was completed in the market. There are just 6.2 million square feet (1% of stock) under construction.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 242 Comments

Looking Gloomy

Posted on April 29, 2025 by grim

From the Dallas Fed:

Growth continues in Texas manufacturing sector, but outlooks worsen

Texas factory activity continued to rise in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, was largely unchanged at 5.1, a reading indicative of modest growth.

Other measures of manufacturing activity signaled contraction, however. The new orders index plummeted 20 points to -20.0. The capacity utilization index edged down to -3.8, and the shipments index fell into negative territory for the first time this year, slipping to -5.5 from 6.1.

Perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen notably in April. The general business activity index fell 20 points to -35.8, its lowest reading since May 2020. The company outlook index also retreated to a postpandemic low of -28.3. The outlook uncertainty index pushed up 11 points to 47.1. 

Labor market measures suggested a slight decrease in head counts and shorter workweeks this month. The employment index held fairly steady at -3.9, with 9 percent of firms noting net hiring and 13 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index slipped to -6.4 from -2.9.

Price pressures accelerated in April, while wage growth remained fairly stable. The raw materials prices index jumped 11 points to 48.4, its highest reading since mid-2022. The finished goods prices index rose nine points to 14.9, a reading well above average. Meanwhile, the wages and benefits index held mostly steady at 14.3, below its average reading.

Expectations for manufacturing activity six months from now remained mixed. The future production index was positive but retreated 13 points to 14.8, while the future general business activity index pushed further negative to -15.2. Most other indexes of future manufacturing activity remained positive but slipped further below average.

From the Kansas Fed:

Tenth District Manufacturing Declined Modestly in April

Tenth District manufacturing activity fell modestly, and expectations for future activity cooled but remained expansionary (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). Prices paid for raw materials increased this month while finished product prices ticked down, further constraining profit margins.

The month-over-month composite index was -4 in April, down from -2 in March and up from -5 in February (Tables 1 & 2). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The nondurable manufacturing sector continued to drive the declines, particularly food and print manufacturing. Most month-over-month indexes were negative, but a few improved from last month’s readings. The production index ticked down from 1 to -5 while the new orders index was mostly unchanged. Most year-over-year indexes were negative, with the exception of the supplier delivery time and inventory indexes. The capital expenditures index fell into negative territory after increasing slightly last month. The future composite index eased from 10 to 6 in April as expectations for production, shipments, and new orders all decreased.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 136 Comments

Hudson Yards Casino Moving Forward

Posted on April 28, 2025 by grim

Uh Oh AC? From AMNY:

Hudson Yards West project with proposed casino moves closer to approval; will plans help give MTA a financial boost?

The bidding war for a NYC metro area casino license is heating up as the Hudson Yards West project received a green light from the City Planning Commission (CPC) on Wednesday, moving it one step closer to an approved reality.

Related Companies/Oxford Properties Group and Wynn Resorts, the developers and gaming gurus behind the project, said the commission “overwhelmingly voted” to support modifications required to revitalize the existing Western Railyards with a gaming resort, housing and green park space. 

In its vote, the CPC approved modifying the application for zoning changes at the Western Rail Yards site, between 11th and 12th Avenues and 30th and 33rd Streets near the High Line, a public park. 

The application is distinct from the more involved state approval process for gaming facility licenses. 

“While this is a significant proposal before us this morning, the scope of what we’re actually voting on is much narrower,” CPC Chair Dan Garodnick said. “Our vote is on land use actions to allow for this  site to compete with other regional applications for a gaming license, and in  the alternative, to ensure a site plan that delivers for the public.”

Posted in New Development, NYC, South Jersey Real Estate | 129 Comments

Dear Mom & Dad…

Posted on April 27, 2025 by grim

From Business Insider:

5 years ago, only 85 US cities had starter homes that cost at least $1 million. Now there are 233.

The typical price of a starter home was $1 million or higher in 233 US cities last month, a new report from Zillow found.

To define starter home prices, Zillow looked at estimated home values toward the bottom of the market in each city, between the 5th and 35th percentiles for each area.

The real-estate listings site found that the typical price of starter homes in at least one city in half of all US states reached $1 million or higher.

The typical price for a starter home nationally stood at $192,514 — well under $1 million. However, the Zillow data shows just how expensive homes have become since 2020, including in states like Rhode Island and Minnesota that aren’t historically known for ultra-pricey real estate. Five years ago, only 85 cities had typical starter homes costing $1 million and up.

California led Zillow’s 2025 list of places with the most expensive starter homes, with 113 cities where the typical one is $1 million or higher. New York, with 32 cities, and New Jersey, with 20, followed.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 41 Comments

Tippy Top?

Posted on April 25, 2025 by grim

From CNBC:

March home sales drop to their slowest pace since 2009

Higher mortgage rates and concern over the broader economy are making for a weak start to the all-important spring housing market.

Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009.

Sales were 2.4% lower than in March 2024 and slumped across all regions month to month. They fell hardest in the West, the priciest region of the country, down more than 9%. The West, however, was the only region to see a year-over-year gain, due to strong activity in the Rocky Mountain states, where job growth is strong.

This count is based on closings, therefore contracts likely signed in January and February, when the average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage was over 7%. It did not fall solidly below 7% until Feb. 20, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”

Sales fell despite a sharp increase in available listings. At the end of March, there were 1.33 million units for sale, an increase of nearly 20% from March 2024. At the current sales pace, that is equivalent to a 4-month supply, which is still on the lean side. A 6-month supply is considered a balanced market between buyer and seller.

More inventory and slower sales are starting put a chill on prices. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $403,700. That is still an all-time high for the month, but it’s only up 2.7% from last March. That annual comparison has been shrinking since December and is the smallest gain since August.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 189 Comments

Is it really collusion if the data is public?

Posted on April 24, 2025 by grim

From Reuters:

New Jersey sues RealPage, says collusion with landlords drives up rents

New Jersey sued the property management software company RealPage, accusing it and 10 of the state’s largest landlords of conspiring to drive up residential rents, violating federal and state antitrust laws and New Jersey consumer fraud laws.

The complaint filed on Wednesday by state Attorney General Matthew Platkin said the defendants, including AvalonBay Communities, illegally used RealPage’s revenue management software and algorithms to inflate rents for apartments in multifamily properties.

New Jersey said the defendants also quietly exchanged non-public data such as lease prices, amenities, concessions offered, property values and housing inventory, in order to align pricing and avoid competition to lower rents.

The state said the collusion has inflated rents for hundreds of thousands of residents, with half of low-income renters paying more than 30% of their gross incomes toward rent. Many real estate and financial experts recommend a 30% limit.

“This lawsuit is about putting a stop to corporate greed at its worst,” said Jeremy Hollander, acting director of New Jersey’s division of consumer affairs. “The housing market in New Jersey is already stacked in favor of landlords but the defendants wanted more.”
…
A spokeswoman, Jennifer Bowcock, added that the software is designed to comply with housing laws.

“The claims brought by the New Jersey attorney general are devoid of merit and will do nothing to make housing more affordable,” Bowcock said in an email. “New Jersey should stop scapegoating pro-competitive technology.”

Posted in Crisis, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 153 Comments

Doh!

Posted on April 23, 2025 by grim

From the prestigious journal of economics and social commentary … Cracked:

No Middle-Class Family Can Live Like ‘The Simpsons’ Anymore, Census Shows

Over the past 36 seasons, The Simpsons has given us episodes about elaborate monorail scams, gun-toting babies and aliens from the planet Rigel 7, but in 2025, the most implausible aspect of the show just might be the family’s comfortable lifestyle.

Homer and Marge are able to raise three children on a single income, all while maintaining two cars and a house so massive that they’ve hardly set foot in one of the rooms in nearly four decades. Not to mention how the family is able to take spontaneous vacations to exotic locations and ultra-violent theme parks. 

But, according to Australia’s ABC News, the U.S. census data from 2025 illustrates that the show “no longer represents ordinary America.” For one thing, when the animated series first premiered back in 1989, “the ordinary American family household was comprised of 3.16 people — typically two parents and up to two young children.” But in the “decades since, those numbers have slowly been declining as American families have chosen to remain smaller.” Although, to be fair, the Simpsons didn’t exactly plan to have so many kids. 
…
And the Simpson family’s financial situation is harder to swallow than a jagged metal Krusty O. “For a patriarchal father of a family to be able to provide for (his family) have a double-storey home, take the family on holiday, buy a new car every few years — that was normal for many white, middle-class Americans and that is no longer the case,” Taveira added. 

This was already becoming a thing of the past when the show debuted. “It was decreasingly the case in 1989 and even less-so now,” Taveira suggested. “While the median income of families has risen, inequality means that fewer people have that amount of money.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

$500k doesn’t get you paradise

Posted on April 22, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

The price of paradise: New Jersey’s staggering housing market

If you’ve been house-hunting lately in New Jersey, you probably didn’t need a national ranking to tell you it’s expensive. But just in case you were wondering, yep, we officially made the top 10.

In an article on the subject on, New Jersey comes in at No. 6 on the list of most expensive states to buy a home, with an average home value of $508,430. And honestly? I’m not shocked. Disappointed, yes. Surprised? Not at all.

Listen, New Jersey deserves to be praised. Between our proximity to New York City and Philly, gorgeous (and in-demand) coastal towns, and the kind of public schools and job opportunities people move for, it kind of makes sense.

Add in our infamous property taxes, and you’ve got the perfect storm for sky-high prices.

The problem is, it’s become nearly impossible for anybody who is not wealthy to buy a home here.

Here’s the full top 10 list:

🏚 1. Hawaii – $856,327

🏚 2. California – $782,695

🏚 3. Massachusetts – $609,415

🏚 4. Utah – $518,241

🏚 5. Washington – $588,986

🏚 6. New Jersey – $508,430

🏚 7. Colorado – $548,602

🏚 8. Oregon – $497,249

🏚 9. New Hampshire – $463,091

🏚 10. New York – $458,072

Even though we’ve got some of the highest median wages in the country, it still feels like owning a home here is getting further out of reach. And with the U.S. median home price now sitting at $420,800, that extra $80K in Jersey hits hard.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 80 Comments

NJ Loses Jobs in March

Posted on April 21, 2025 by grim

From NJBIA:

NJ Hiring Slows in March as Jobless Rate Ticks Up to 4.7% 

New Jersey had a net loss of 2,700 jobs during the month of March and the state’s unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.7%, according to preliminary U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics datareleased Thursday by the state labor officials. 

The 0.1 percentage point rise in the state’s unemployment is the first increase in the jobless rate since May of 2024.  New Jersey’s 4.7% unemployment rate also exceeds the national rate, which was 4.2% in March. 

Total New Jersey nonfarm employment was 4,393,800. Two of nine private industry sectors recorded job gains in March compared to February: education and health services (+2,700) and other services (+1,000). The public sector gained 700 jobs. 

Job losses occurred in leisure and hospitality (-3,600); construction (-1,200); professional and business services (-1,000); manufacturing (-600); financial activities (-400); trade, transportation, and utilities (-100); and information (-100). 

The government’s preliminary job estimates for February were also downwardly revised by 5,500 jobs for a gain of 13,700 jobs instead of the 19,200 previously reported for that month. The revision did not affect the 4.6% state unemployment rate for February. 

Over the past 12 months, New Jersey has added 33,800 nonfarm jobs, with 76% of those in the private sector. Between March 2024 and March 2025 five private sector industries had gains: private education and health services (+35,800), other services (+2,600), trade, transportation, and utilities (+900), manufacturing (+500), and financial activities (+100). 

Year-over-year losses were recorded in these four sectors: information (-4,900); professional and business services (-4,900); construction (-2,400); and leisure and hospitality (-1,900). 

The public sector has recorded a gain of 8,000 jobs over the same 12-month period. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 95 Comments

Uh Oh…

Posted on April 20, 2025 by grim

From Zillow:

Zillow Home Value and Home Sales Forecast (April 2025)

Zillow’s latest forecast indicates a decline in home values coupled with an increase in existing home sales for 2025. While mortgage rates are in an especially unpredictable period, barring unforeseen shocks Zillow expects rates to end the year near 6.5%. 

Home values are projected to drop by 1.9% this year – a revision from the previous expectation of a 0.6% increase. The combination of rising available listings and elevated mortgage rates is signaling potential price drops by year’s end. With increased supply, buyers are gaining more options and time to decide, while sellers are cutting prices at record levels to attract bids. 

Existing home sales are projected to reach 4.2 million in 2025, representing a 3.3% increase from 2024. As spring arrives and the home shopping season heats up, Zillow anticipates a temporary surge in sales, followed by a normal seasonal slowdown. If home prices soften and mortgage rates decline, existing home sales could benefit from improved affordability by the end of the year. 

Zillow expects single-family rents to rise 3.1% in 2025, while multifamily rents are expected to tick up 2.1%. Both would represent slower annual growth than current rates and long-term norms. As apartment construction slows down and single-family home development increases, the gap between single-family and multifamily rents is likely to continue narrowing. Affordability challenges and economic uncertainty are putting pressure on the rental market, leading potential buyers to delay their purchases. As a result, demand for single-family rentals is expected to grow, as these would-be buyers choose to rent until the for-sale market becomes more affordable.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 25 Comments

Of course NJ knows how to negotiate

Posted on April 18, 2025 by grim

From ESPN (I have no idea, but I’ll take it):

New Jersey Homebuyers Rank Among America’s Top Negotiators

New Home prices have been on the rise across the United States. In New Jersey, there has been a 12.5% increase in all types of properties on the market over the last 18 months.

A major reason for these price surges is because of limited inventory. There are not enough homes on the market to meet the demands of the market.

Also, many homeowners are holding onto low mortgage rates they locked in years ago, so fewer people are selling because they do not want to get caught in the inflation surge.

But despite these housing market price increases, there is some good news for New Jersey home buyers according to new research from Agent Advice.

The research team at AgentAdvice.com surveyed 3,000 homeowners in all 50 states in America to find out their negotiations for new homes. They found that 54 percent of homebuyers admitted to walking away from making a deal when the seller refused to negotiate a lower price.

New Jersey Home Buyers Saved the fourth most average money thanks to negotiations before making a deal for their new property. NJ buyers saved an average of $19,634 thanks to negotiations before signing the dotted line.

The average home price listing in New Jersey is $503,432 so negotiating a savings of almost $20,000 off the sale price is significant.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 129 Comments

Monmouth foreclosures up (but the number is tiny)

Posted on April 17, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

This county had the sharpest increase in foreclosures in NJ

If you’ve been following the housing market in New Jersey, you already know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Between rising interest rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty, it’s been tough out there for both buyers and homeowners.

But it’s been a long time since we’ve heard about rising foreclosures. It’s almost as though foreclosures disappeared when interest rates were low. After all, those monthly payments with three or four percent interest were very affordable!

But foreclosures are back, and one county, in particular, is really feeling the pinch right now. And the latest numbers prove it.

According to a new report from PropertyShark, Monmouth County just saw the sharpest increase in foreclosures in the entire state. Foreclosures in Monmouth more than doubled compared to this time last year (a 105% year-over-year spike), making it the most active foreclosure spot in New Jersey so far this year.

Now, not all the news is bad. Sussex County had the biggest drop in foreclosures (down 56%), and counties like Morris and Middlesex also saw a pretty big decline. Hudson and Hunterdon counties didn’t budge much at all and stayed flat.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending, Shore Real Estate | 49 Comments

NJ economy softening?

Posted on April 15, 2025 by grim

From nj.com:

Layoffs in N.J. double. More than 3,600 jobs are gone this year. 

New Jersey saw twice as many layoffs in the first quarter of 2025 than it did last year, even before tariff fears, according to federal labor statistics.

There were 28 businesses in the state that announced layoffs of a combined 3,618 workers in the first quarter of this year. The layoffs were more than double the 1,753 layoffs announced by 118 companies during the same period in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The surge in layoffs comes amidst concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the nation’s product imports and the governor’s race in New Jersey. 
…
According to federal data, the level of people quitting has leveled off after it peaked during the so-called Great Resignation, when many quit work and found better employment opportunities immediately after the pandemic.

The level of job openings has also softened, federal data shows, after a spring 2022 peak.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 135 Comments