From the National Association of Realtors:
October Pending Home Sales Index (PDF)
October pending home sales are down 13.2% year over year, and down 1.7% from last month. Northeast pending home sales fell 2.1% from last month, and are down 13.5% year over year.
From Marketwatch:
Pending home sales fell 1.7% in Oct., stabilization seen
A gauge of future home buying declined slightly in October, a sign that the housing market could be stabilizing, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. The pending home sales index fell 1.7% in October after a 1.1% drop in September. The index is down 13.2% in the past year, but the decline from year-ago levels has narrowed since August. David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors’ group, said a fairly steady pace of home sales can be expected for the next two months. “It’s important to focus on where the housing market is now — it appears to be stabilizing and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high,” Lereah said.
From Reuters:
U.S. October pending home sales index falls 1.7 pct
Pending sales of existing U.S. homes fell 1.7 percent in October but held above the low hit in July, suggesting the housing market is stabilizing, a real estate trade association said on Monday.
The National Association of Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in October, fell to 107.2 from 109.1 in September.
It was a steeper drop than analysts had expected. The median forecast of a Reuters poll of economists was for an October index level of 108.6.
…a sign that the housing market could be stabilizing, the National Association of Realtors said Monday… I just don’t know what to say…very confused over the ignorance.
It depends on who wrote the article. It looks like the numbers is not based on the previous year but on the last month report to make it look good and not create a PANIC !!!
NJREREPORT had it right !!!
Thanks to this blog !!!
From Marketwatch:
Pending home sales fall 1.7% in Oct.
A gauge of future home buying declined slightly in October, a sign that the housing market could be stabilizing, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.
The pending home sales index fell 1.7% in October to 107.2 after a 1.1% drop in September.
Pending home sales are purchase agreements in which the contracts have been signed but the transaction has not closed.
The index is down 13.2% in the past year.
But the NAR noted that the index has trended up to from 105.6 in July and the year-ago gap is narrowing from 14% in August.
David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors’ group, said a fairly steady pace of home sales can be expected for the next two months.
“It’s important to focus on where the housing market is now — it appears to be stabilizing and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high,” Lereah said.
“In addition, a temporary correction in prices distracts from the fact that it is primarily the number of home sales that affects the economy and the number for this year will be the third highest on record,” he added.
Regionally, the pending home sales index fell 0.6% in the Midwest, but was down 15.4% year-on year. Pending sales fell 2.7% in the West and are down 17.4% in the past year. Pending sales fell 1.7% in the South and are down 9.3% year-over-year. Pending sales fell 2.1% in the Northeast and are down 13.5% in the past year
“held above the low hit in July, suggesting the housing market is stabilizing”
So we are are hanging a little above July lows and the bobbleheads are optimistic??? I like to use tops as a barometer not recent lows. Kind of like saying the cancer is terminal, however it’s not spreading.
I am looking at a home
MLS 10085146 NJ – $640,000.00
Does anyone have a suggestion for a fair (to me) lowball offer I should make? Thanks.
TJ,
Do you have an address for 10085146?
What street in Manasquan?
190 Broad Street, Manasquan Thanks
TJ,
Looks like the current owners paid 172,000 for the lot and existing structure when they bought it in July 2002. The assessment then was for 76,200. Its 2004 assessment is 526,800.
194 Broad went for 670,000 in 9/05. Peak price. That being said, it also has a much lower assessment of 378,600 even though its on a larger lot size.
The sellers are at least pricing below ’05 peak which is good. If this has just listed, I think you will want to let them sit on the listing for a little while. I don’t have any precision answers for you here. Tough to price new construction that was built mid bubble. For what its worth, taxes on homes with 5 BRs where I am looking are twice what they are in Manasquan.
Your best bet is to look for late 90’s, or 2000 sales in that neighborhood on similarly sized homes to get some comps, then grow that value by 4-5% a year to today’s value. Make adjustments for the new construction. Good luck.
http://tinyurl.com/yfm3a5
Seneca – Thank you. After looking at it we may put in an offer @ 20% lower than asking. It has been on the market for at least 6 months. We’re in no rush. TJ
Please note that this is a decline over a decline. Not exactly an original observation, but Lereah et.al, are clearly spinning.
July’s down was a down over an increase, and as much as we like to compare the market to gravity, it doesn’t necessarily accelerate to terminal velocity on the way down.
Last year was down, this year is down more. Where I come from economists look for trends, and that’s not a good one. Here’s a crazy prediction: October 07 will be worse than October 06. I’ll go so far as to say every data point in 07 will be worse than it’s 06 counterpart (on a non-adjusted basis, I hate the adjustments). Lereah will of course say that this could not have been anticipated because it is the recession that is leading to the decline, not that the decline is part of the recession.
Somehow, magically, the housing sector gets to lead rallies, but is always a casualty (not even factor, forget cause) of downturns.
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