Housing recovery “won’t start before 2008 at the earliest”

From the Wall Street Journal:

The State of the Slump
Tighter Credit Helps Keep Housing Inventories Rising,
Though Some Hard-Hit Cities See Signs of a Turnaround
By JAMES R. HAGERTY and RUTH SIMON
July 26, 2007; Page D1

Tighter credit is prolonging a deep slump in home sales, but a quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of 28 major metro areas shows that the surge in inventories of unsold homes is slowing. In two of those markets — Boston and Denver — the number listed for sale has actually declined from a year ago.

The latest trends offer some hope for an eventual recovery in a U.S. housing market that generally has been cooling since mid-2005. Even so, many economists and industry executives say that recovery will be very gradual and won’t start before 2008 at the earliest. That’s partly because more-stringent lending policies are keeping many potential buyers on the sidelines, while others are holding off in hopes of prices heading even lower. Meanwhile, there is still a glut of homes on the market in much of the country, especially in Florida and parts of Arizona, Nevada and California.

Home sales and prices generally should bottom out around mid-2008, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa. “The market will not revive quickly, however,” he says. “It won’t be until the turn of the decade before housing activity returns to more normal conditions.”

Median prices can be skewed by shifts in the market, however. Lenders are turning down more and more people with weak credit records or high debt in relation to income, and that is hurting sales of lower-end homes. Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive of KB Home, one of the nation’s largest mass-market builders, says its average home price has fallen about 12% from a year ago. In some markets, such as Southern California, he says, “there are two markets emerging.” While the high-end housing market has remained strong, prices are down in the entry-level and first-time move-up market.

As measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller national index, house prices in this year’s fourth quarter are likely to be down about 7% from a year earlier, says Thomas Lawler, a housing economist in Vienna, Va. He expects a further fall of about 3.5% in 2008.

But tight credit is squeezing lots of people still trying to buy a first home. William and Kimberly Glass were preapproved for a mortgage in May and found a $540,000, four-bedroom, three-bathroom home in Santa Clarita, Calif., near Los Angeles. But by the time they made the offer, lending standards had tightened to the point where they could no longer buy the home with no money down. “It’s a little frustrating that a month and a half ago we were in a better position than we are now,” says Mr. Glass, an actor. Putting “3% to 5% down would have basically drained our savings and put us in a precarious position with the renovations [the house] needed.”

“The noose is definitely tightening” around interest-only loans and option adjustable-rate mortgages, two products that were often used by cash-strapped borrowers to make their loan payments more affordable, says Brian Chappelle, a mortgage banking consultant in Washington. About one-third of borrowers who have used these loans in recent years wouldn’t qualify under the tighter standards, he says.

House prices are likely to remain weak in many areas until inventories of unsold homes fall. That process has begun in a few places, including the Boston metro area, where the number of homes listed for sale at the end of June was down 16% from a year earlier. Boston’s market cooled in early 2005, before most other areas, and so has had more time to adjust. Some frustrated sellers who don’t need to move have taken their homes off the market.

In the New Jersey suburbs near New York, listings surged in 2005 and 2006. At the end of June, though, listings in 12 northern New Jersey counties were up just 3% from a year ago, according to Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick, N.J., appraisal firm. In Manhattan, inventories are down 17%, according to Corcoran Group, a real-estate brokerage. A torrent of Wall Street bonuses and foreign buyers lured by the weaker dollar have helped keep the market firm there, says Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Miller Samuel Inc., an appraisal firm in New York. The median sale price for co-ops and condos in Manhattan was $895,000 in the second quarter, up 1.7% from a year earlier, according to Miller Samuel.

Jeffrey G. Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, says the parts of New Jersey popular with commuters into New York are doing best. In those areas, he says, sales are no longer slumping and the number of homes on the market has leveled off. “Proximity to Manhattan is once again becoming the primary force in the market,” he says.

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526 Responses to Housing recovery “won’t start before 2008 at the earliest”

  1. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Second Australia hedge fund hit by subprime woes

    A second Australian hedge fund has been hit by the crisis in the U.S. subprime mortgage market, suspending withdrawals from two funds to avoid a fire sale in a market deserted by buyers.

    Sydney-based Absolute Capital, half-owned by Dutch bank ABN AMRO, said it temporarily closed two funds with a combined A$200 million ($177 million) in assets because it was tough to offload investments in collateralised debt obligations (CDOs).

    Funds across Asia could get hit if the U.S. subprime woes ripple through global credit markets, said Michael Nock, head of Hong Kong-based hedge fund manager Doric Capital Corp.

    “There’s no question that there is a sort of contagion risk,” Nock said.

  2. James Bednar says:

    From Forbes:

    Crunch Time

    The noose around the easy credit of the last few years is tightening.

    Cerberus Capital, the New York hedge fund, could not find buyers for $12 billion worth of debt backing its purchase of the automotive division of Chrysler, so the banks that committed to making the loans for that buyout are going to be stuck with them for now and will try to sell them later this year.

    Banks also will put off trying to sell $10 billion of loans underwritten to finance Kohlberg Kravis Robert’s purchase of U.K.-based company Alliance Boots, which was Europe’s largest leveraged buyout to date.

    The original idea was to sell both loans in pieces to investors such as hedge funds, other banks and collateralized loan obligations, special funds set up to invest in loan deals. But investors seemingly have no appetite for leveraged loans these days, after a long stretch of frenzied dealmaking.

    What it means for the broader markets is a likely slowdown in buyout activity as the banks pull back from lending with easy terms and as buyout firms balk at paying higher interest rates to fund their purchases. “It will be much harder to do an LBO in the near term,” said Reuters Loan Pricing analyst Meredith Coffey.

  3. pesche22 says:

    Crisis , What crisis, we’re close to NYC
    Can’t lose on housing in NNJ.

    Any shills out their for the RE industry?

  4. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    M.D.C Holdings posts 2nd-qtr loss, lags view

    Home builder M.D.C. Holdings Inc. posted a worse-than-expected second-quarter loss on Wednesday, hurt by asset impairment charges and write-offs amid a U.S. housing market downturn.

  5. James Bednar says:

    From Marketwatch:

    DR Horton Q3 loss $2.62 vs net 93c
    Beazer Homes Q3 loss $3.20 vs net $2.37

  6. James Bednar says:

    Doesn’t bode well for New Home Sales data, due out at 10am this morning.

    jb

  7. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    D.R. Horton posts quarterly loss after charges

    D.R. Horton Inc, the largest U.S. home builder, reported its first quarterly loss as a public company on Thursday after taking more than a billion dollars of charges, chiefly related to the lower value of land and other assets.

    For the fiscal third quarter ended June 30, D.R. Horton posted a loss of $823.8 million, or $2.62 per share, versus a profit of $292.8 million, or 93 cents per share, in the year-earlier quarter.
    (emphasis added)

  8. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Beazer Homes swings to 3rd-qtr loss

    Beazer Homes USA Inc., a company facing a deteriorating U.S. housing market and federal investigations into lending practices, posted a quarterly loss on Thursday as the builder took charges for inventory and goodwill impairments and abandonment of land option contracts.

    For the third quarter ended June 30, Beazer posted a net loss of $123.0 million, or $3.20 per share, compared with a year-earlier profit of $102.6 million, or $2.37 per share.

  9. James Bednar says:

    10Y@4.86%!

    jb

  10. thatBIGwindow says:

    From The South Bergenite:

    Bridge construction begins this week

    Local road congestion and early morning commutes may get a little hairier in the next four months as the state announced it will begin its work on the Route 3 bridge. Preliminary construction will begin this week and full-fledged work in the first week of August.

    The project is a temporary revamp of the Route 3 Passaic River Bridge. It was originally to have been dismantled and replaced in 2003, but was then pushed to 2008. New projections put completion at 2012 according to the most recent construction advisory posted by one of the affected municipalities. The current project is simply deemed as an immediately needed interim repair to keep the bridge operational until the proposed approximately $219 million Route 3 improvement project eventually gets underway. That $219 million was secured as part of the Department of Transportation’s (DOT) recently released five-year capital plan and through this month’s passage of the largest ever budget passed by the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority.

    http://www.southbergenite.com/NC/0/203.html

  11. James Bednar says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Subprime Losses `Did Exceed Our Expectations,’ S&P Says

    Losses in the U.S. subprime mortgage market were worse than Standard & Poor’s expectations, according to an official of the rating company.

    “There is no doubt that losses coming from U.S. subprime did exceed our expectation and historical losses,” Leah Rhodes, a Melbourne-based director of structured finance at S&P, said today at a bond conference in Sydney.

    S&P, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings have been criticized by investors as their ratings on bonds backed by mortgages to people with poor or limited credit quality didn’t reflect the highest default rate in 10 years. Prices for mortgage bonds and collateralized debt obligations have plunged amid the collapse last month of two hedge funds run by New York-based Bear Stearns Cos. and downgrades this month of billions of dollars of the debt by S&P and Moody’s.

    “We are taking all available information and making changes as we see fit,” Rhodes said. “This is a new phenomenon, not reflected in historical data.”

  12. James Bednar says:

    “This is a new phenomenon, not reflected in historical data.”

    Simply amazing, and all this time I thought we had entered a period of unprecedented prosperity, a permanent prosperity, a permanently high plateau! What ever did happen to the new paradigm? Perhaps it’s not reflected in historical data because never before in history has there ever been such a wanton orgy of loose credit?

    jb

  13. thatBIGwindow says:

    From South Bergenite:

    Town mulls abandoned townhouse project

    Borough officials have authorized the Department of Public Works to clean up and fence off a site purchased several years ago for a townhouse development that has lied dormant ever since.

    The property, Block 18, Lot 14 at 731 Morton Street, is just under an acre. When developer Adventure Realty, LLC purchased the property several years ago it planned to build townhouses. The company received approval to build 15 units, according to Councilman Jeff Lahullier. However, after demolishing the building previously on the site, the company never proceeded with its plans. Now, several years and several letters from the ordinance enforcer later, the borough has decided to clean up the site and place a lien on it.

    http://www.southbergenite.com/NC/0/174.html

  14. thatBIGwindow says:

    Here is a recent flipper:

    Bought in 4/07 fir $365,000 (house was on market 120 days) needed work mls # 2638349

    On the market 7/25/07 (only 3 months later) listed at $520,000. MLS # 2730409

    Flipper did the typical home depot nail on cabinets, paint, etc. Definately not 155k worth of work.

  15. BC Bob says:

    “What ever did happen to the new paradigm? Perhaps it’s not reflected in historical data because never before in history has there ever been such a wanton orgy of loose credit?”

    JB,

    What makes a Monet, 10x more expensive than it was 6 years ago. What makes a house, that was 500k now 1 mil? The world’s central banks have created a pig fest. When you juice up money supply, 3-5 times greater than GDP, it then needs a place to park itself. At least in the 1920’s the Ford’s, Rockefeller’s, Vanderbilt’s, etc. were creating an industry. Present day,the hedgies lever up on the easy credit and buy. What of any economic value has been created, US related? Blackstone sells to a greater fool. That’s the extent of it. The CB’s have created an asset/credit bubble of epic proportions. The housing bust is the least of our problems.

  16. thatBIGwindow says:

    Anyone want to go in with me to start up a “Rent A Center” in Bergen County? I am sure business would be great.

  17. BC Bob says:

    “Putting “3% to 5% down would have basically drained our savings and put us in a precarious position with the renovations [the house] needed.”

    Did you ever think that maybe you were not qualified to buy a 550k house? 15K-25K would have drained you? Maybe you should have taken a few finance courses along with your acting gig. A hard lesson is coming your way. Pavlov’s dog need to be re-conditioned, possibly salivate when they see their savings increase. I know, tall order. What the hell? Paulson tried to sell that dream to the Chinese.

  18. x-underwriter says:

    This is a crack-up.
    JB, you have a new competitor for truth regarding real estated. Realtor.com has started their own blog.
    Here’s a sample string from there

    http://talk.realtor.com/?p=7

    It’s a real estate meltdown … no, it’s a buyer’s market … no, it’s … With the standard commentary about the health of the market all over the place, Arthur Rosbury-Yoder wrote an insightful article that highlights 10 factors that are influencing current market conditions. His conclusion is that these10 factors actually lead to a balanced market:

    “Unlike the previous market trend which was marked by selling frenzies and unhealthy rapid price growth, the current market is solid, growing and good for both sellers and buyers.”

  19. john says:

    This is what we have been saying all week, NYC drives prices in NJ. There are NO good jobs in NJ, face it, there are NO good jobs in LI, face it. Why do you think we commute. A married man with a stay at home wife Cannot buy an expensive house on a NJ salary. 200K in NYC = 100K in NJ/LI,

    “says the parts of New Jersey popular with commuters into New York are doing best. In those areas, he says, sales are no longer slumping and the number of homes on the market has leveled off. “Proximity to Manhattan is once again becoming the primary force in the market,” he says”.

  20. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. capital spending weakens again in June

    Capital spending by U.S. businesses weakened for a second straight month in June, while strong demand for airplanes pushed total orders for U.S.-made durable goods up by 1.4%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Except for the red-hot aerospace sector, demand was tepid in June. Excluding transportation goods, orders fell 0.5%. Orders for core capital equipment goods – the kinds of things businesses invest in to increase their productive capacity – fell 0.7% in June after dropping 1.5% in May. The report on durable-goods manufacturing was weaker than expected. Economists were looking for a 2.5% increase in total orders.

  21. thatBIGwindow says:

    The days of a stay at home wife are gone. More women focus on their careers and end up making more than the men. Nothing wrong with that, I leave work earlier than she does, start dinner for her, clean the house, etc.

  22. john says:

    Prime Problem: Home Prices That Are Falling

    (AP) Many subprime mortgages that have gone bad never should have been made at all. Some of the prime loans that are starting to go bad should have been made only if the lenders could guarantee that housing prices would keep going up.
    They didn’t, and that contributed to Countrywide Financial’s 33% drop in quarterly earnings and 10% stock drop on Tuesday. The culprit, the company said, was a surprising jump in delinquencies by prime borrowers who had taken out home-equity loans.

    When prices were rising, homeowners were able to wiggle out of mortgages by refinancing or selling.

    Now, amid tighter lending standards, air is seeping out of the bubble, and the escape hatch for troubled borrowers has slammed shut.

    “The challenge now is going to be for people who would like to refinance, but the value of the property is materially lower than their existing loan,” said housing economist Thomas Lawler.

    That means more prime-loan defaults are likely on tap. Today’s report on June new-home sales could show how aggressively home builders have been cutting prices. Sales of newly built homes in April surged 12%, in part due to an 11% drop in the median sale price. Prices fell just 1% in May and sales fell again.

    Another clue could come from D.R. Horton, which reports fiscal third-quarter earnings today. The home builder said earlier this month that net home orders had tumbled 40% from a year ago. The question is will the company slash prices to get sales moving again? (More on the housing market, page D1.)

    Citigroup May Be Hit Hard by Tightening Debt Market

    With the wheels coming off the $12 billion auto loan backing the leveraged buyout of Chrysler, J.P. Morgan Chase, the lead arranger of the deal, has a bit of egg on its face. But the bank’s archrival, Citigroup, may look just as bad as leveraged-debt investors refuse to part with their money.

    Citigroup was a lead arranger of $24.6 billion of U.S. loans and bonds yanked from the market, according to Reuters Loan Pricing. Besides Chrysler, it was one of three leads on Allison Transmission, a $3.1 billion loan deal pulled earlier this week. That total doesn’t include deals like Dollar General, where underwriters including Citigroup and Goldman Sachs Group sacrificed fees to get them sold.

    Citigroup’s shares have fallen about 10% since the beginning of last month, while J.P. Morgan’s are down 13%. Falling prices for loans in the secondary market could hurt banks’ results if they’re forced to sell them at a discount. The company is comfortable with the credit it has extended, Gary Crittenden, Citigroup’s finance chief, said last week.

    “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” says Jeffrey Harte, analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners.

    Citigroup has a role in the largest deals in the pipeline, too: TXU, First Data., Alltel and Clear Channel Communications. Recently, Charles Prince, Citigroup’s chief executive, said the company was still willing to finance buyouts. “As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance,” he said. Were he asked now, would he still be dancing?

  23. SG says:

    What makes a house, that was 500k now 1 mil?

    Well, I think it totally depends on what time horizon you look at. If you start from 2000, 100% appreciation in 6 years. But if you start from 1992, you will see 100% appreciation in 14 years. The second scenario definitely says a lot about RE that you are not going to get 15% appreciation every year.

    What of any economic value has been created, US related?

    Agree with you on this 100%. On the contrary, I feel as our population is ageing our productivity is going down significantly.

  24. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    Countrywide CEO: No housing recovery before 2009

    of course, before admitting to reality he has sold 100’s of millions in stock option value.

    Massive House price deflation come fall 2007 spring 2008 massacre.

    Bleed’em Dry!

  25. john says:

    My friend once showed my a chart that started back in 1973 through 1989 as women kept entering the workplace in droves during the womens lib movement and the concept of the two income family became a reality. That 1972 29K house became a 1989 250K house. Since many families had double incomes it allowed them to pay larger mortgages so housing prices rose. This in turn forced the bus drivers wife with a HS degree who was happy at home out into the workforce just so she could afford the same crappy cape that 10 years earlier a bus driver could afford on one income.

    Reality is in the well off neighborhoods an educated wife with a rewarding career and a maid and lawn service and new SUV as rewards for her work is great, however it also forced the busdrivers wife in Levitown out to cashier at Walmart just to make ends meet at the crap box that a generation earlier a busdrivers wife could easily afford as a stay at home wife.

    Re thatBIGwindow Says:
    The days of a stay at home wife are gone. More women focus on their careers and end up making more than the men. Nothing wrong with that, I leave work earlier than she does, start dinner for her, clean the house, etc.

  26. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    READ MY LIPS: NYC re going to catch pneumonia soon.
    Got it

    Got it!

  27. BC Bob says:

    What makes a house, that was 500k now 1 mil?

    SG [24],

    Pertaining to the 2001-2006 time frame.

  28. BC Bob says:

    Buckle up.

  29. lostinny says:

    26 John
    I hate to say it but I think you are spot on. And BTW, I know a couple from Levittown in that exact same position, and jobs.

  30. make money says:

    thatBIGwindow Says:

    The days of a stay at home wife are gone. More women focus on their careers and end up making more than the men. Nothing wrong with that, I leave work earlier than she does, start dinner for her, clean the house, etc.

    You’re a disgrace to men kind. Why should she make more money than you? don’t you have any pride as a man.

    Who decides where the next investment is? Who makes the budget decisisons?

    mama’s boy! First you depend on your mother to take care of you and now it’s wife.

    Stand on your own two feet as man.

  31. Seneca says:

    Barbara Corcoran (The Today Show “expert” on the Real Estate Market) had some choice comments to offer this morning.

    Will the Today Show hold Barbara Corcoran accountable for quotes like these a few months down the road?

    paraphrased: “…the other good news is that house prices have creeped up, I think the worst is behind us”

    paraphrased: “right now prices are at their lowest point and interest rates are cheap, if you can go in there and put in a low bid you can get a good deal”

    “… you only see the bottom after you come out of it and thats what we are seeing right now”

    … and my personal favorite, advice for home sellers and whether they should take a lowball now or wait:

    “..you’d be out of your mind not to wait 3 or 4 months because I believe the worst is behind us and if you can hold onto that home, really hold onto it for 6 months ,you are going to sell it for more.”

    She went on to say that even if you have an ARM that is going to reset, depending on what it is reseting to, it still pays to hold on for another few months because you will be able to sell for more.

    What RE market(s) outside of Manhattan is she referring to?

    She is advising buyers to put in low bids and she is advising sellers not to accept low bids? Was Matt Lauer even listening or has he already decided the woman is a quack so he just lets her spew?

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/12065856/
    Click on “Home expert discusses the market”

  32. Seneca says:

    john (26) and lostinny (30)

    Let me get this straight… you are assigning blame for the rising cost of housing in the 70’s and 80’s to educated women who pursued rewarding careers?

  33. 2010 Buyer says:

    [22]

    Not too surprised that there will be some “prime” fallout as well. The difference between a prime and an ALT-A borrower is maybe 50+ higher FICO score and showing more supporting docs when getting the loan. I would venture to say that the attitude of both groups (including subprime) of stretching to get into the home, over spending (new car and $300 jeans), utilizing ARM loans, etc. is probably the same.

  34. lostinny says:

    Seneca
    I am not blaming women for being educated and pursuing careers. I am blaming the people who saw women doing that and raised prices of everything thinking now the American public can afford these prices because there is more income. I think this goes back to the recent argument here of more income. To me it doesn’t matter whether it was the man making x amount or the couple together making x amount. The income is the income. If the income of the man alone, as the sole earner, jumped up to as much as it became when women “entered the workforce” we’d be having the same prices, same conversations about inflation, etc.

  35. BC Bob says:

    You think the retail currency traders in Japan are enjoying their sake tonight?

  36. john says:

    Yes – Face it. Think about when Wall Street is hot and towns in BC on the direct train line shoot up because Wall Streeters are making tons of cash. The blue collar children who grew up in that town are forced out as they no longer can afford it or are forced to mortgage themselves to the max with two or three jobs to afford to live in the house their father afforded on a single middle class salary. Those middle class middle age parents now have grandchildren down south as their children had to move away as the Wall Streeters priced them out.

    Your wife like the wall streeters have forced the bus drivers wife into standing on her feet all day at some crap job while her kids are unsupervised or in dirty cheap day care. Read the book nickeled and dime in america to see how most working women live.

    Seneca Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 9:27 am
    john (26) and lostinny (30)

    Let me get this straight… you are assigning blame for the rising cost of housing in the 70’s and 80’s to educated women who pursued rewarding careers?

  37. Orion says:

    10yr @ 4.83%

    Wow!

    JB-Have a great time in Europe.

  38. BC Bob says:

    “Think about when Wall Street is hot and towns in BC on the direct train line shoot up because Wall Streeters are making tons of cash.”

    John [37],

    And if WS catches a cold?

  39. lostinny says:

    John I was mistaken. I thought we were looking at this in the same way but we clearly are not. What you’re doing is faulting people for making more money. That’s as bad as the $300 jeans comments that were flying around here a while back. What about the people raising the prices of everything? Those were men if I remember correctly.

  40. Orion says:

    Seneca (32)

    Saw that this morning with Matt. Couldn’t believe that woman’s comments. Made me wonder to which industry she was catering.

  41. bi says:

    10yr yield down to 4.82%, moving to the target rate of 4.5% by year end i set two days ago. Fed has no choice but cutting rate in next meeting. yesterday’s existing home sale declared and today’s new home sale will confirm the end of real estate bubbbbbbbble busting national-wise. but i am more interested in the honest opinion from local experts such as Otteau and donald, richard and JBL on this board.

  42. Richard says:

    got to like that 10 year. might soon be time to refinance and save more money.

  43. bi says:

    Richard, 10 yr will be 4.5% by year end as i predicted 3 days ago

  44. Richard says:

    was in the lambertville area of NJ last weekend. driving down route 29 from frenchtown there’s a mcmansion complex built by toll brothers along the way. in the middle of nowhere and the houses are gigantic. i’m thinking who the hell would first off pay for one of these monstrosities and second why in the middle of nowhere?

  45. Richard says:

    >>Richard, 10 yr will be 4.5% by year end as i predicted 3 days ago

    3 days ago prediction? that’s not fair! i predicted a month or two back when the rates topped 5.25% we’d see 5.1% by year end. i’m still sticking to it.

  46. thatBIGwindow says:

    #31: Right now I make slightly more than she does however, she is highly educated…much more educated than I am, and will be making double what I am very soon. So, since she has the most potential based on her education and experience and current job (she is in a field that not many people are in) we are focusing on her career. She loves what she does too so why put all that education and knowledge to waste? I like cleaning and cooking and yard work…so essentially we are both doing what we love.

  47. Doyle says:

    John, I thought the woman’s salary (in a marriage) didn’t count unless they make $135k?

  48. Richard says:

    >>The CB’s have created an asset/credit bubble of epic proportions. The housing bust is the least of our problems.

    don’t discount perception which is coincident with this phenomena.

  49. BC Bob says:

    “3 days ago prediction? that’s not fair! i predicted a month or two back when the rates topped 5.25% we’d see 5.1% by year end. i’m still sticking to it.”

    Richard,

    Why don’t you share, with everybody, your basis for this scenario. Your new paradigm of liquidity.

    Some look up to the sky and see stars. Unfortunately, their vision is clouded and they never see the light.

  50. BC Bob says:

    “don’t discount perception which is coincident with this phenomena.”

    Hah. Explain how money supply, increasing between 10-13% worldwide, is perception?

  51. bi says:

    MarketWatch.com:

    U.S. new-home sales drop 6.6% to 834,000 in June

    By Rex Nutting
    Last Update: 10:00 AM ET Jul 26, 2007

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Sales of new homes declined 6.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Sales are now down 22.3% compared with June 2006. The sales pace in June was the lowest since March’s 830,000, which was the lowest since 1999. Economists were expecting sales to fall to an 890,000 annualized pace in June. Sales dropped in three of four regions. Sales in the West fell 22.5% to the lowest level in 12 years. Inventories of unsold homes were unchanged at 537,000. The median sales price was $237,900, down 2.2% compared with June 2006

  52. scribe says:

    # Seneca Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 9:27 am

    john (26) and lostinny (30)

    “Let me get this straight… you are assigning blame for the rising cost of housing in the 70’s and 80’s to educated women who pursued rewarding careers?”

    Double-income couples starting becoming a factor in the mid-1980’s. Before that, even if women worked, they didn’t make much. The job choices were pretty limited, and women’s salaries were heavily discounted because of discrimination. The 1970’s were pretty brutal for the first wave of women breaking into serious jobs with real salaries.

    It’s the difference between having single wage earner families vs. double income. Definitely a factor in the mid-1980’s bubble.

  53. Poor renter says:

    John: If women entering the workforce is the reason house prices went up so fast in the 70’s and 80’s, why wasn’t that the cause for other things, like rent, cars, food, etc?

  54. New Investor says:

    You guys mostly seem to be experienced RE veterans. Are any of you involved in the rental property side of the RE market? Specifically 2-4 unit properties? I would love to have someone to talk to about my ideas, but I don’t know of anybody knowledgeable enough to trust feedback from.

    My agent doesn’t seem to have too much experience with 2-4 unit properties, and my parents are in the business but did it old-school style. By old school I mean putting as much money down as possible, with the goal being to pay off the mortgage as quickly as possible.

    I would appreciate any advice from an expert who has experience in the field.

    Thanks,
    -Dave

  55. skep-tic says:

    well, here we go with the hung bridges on the LBOs again. Same thing that happened in the late 80s when the junk market dried up. What is ironic is that, against their better wishes, the banks ended up owning the targets back then when the targets inevitably defaulted. Many of the people who managed the defaulted companies within the banks eventually broke off to form the private equity firms of today. We are coming full circle again

  56. scribe says:

    skep,

    Here’s a story from IDD about that:

    Is an Autumn Credit Storm Brewing?
    Matthew Sheahan and Samantha Young
    July 23, 2007

    Consensus never comes easy, even less so when you throw in the bold personalities that inhabit the world of private equity and investment banking. So it’s no surprise that there is no definitive response to the question: How are we going deal with all this debt?

    Certainly, the seven high-yield bond deals, as well as a few on the leveraged loan side, that have run for cover from the storm of investor pushback will resurface, by most accounts, in the fall. Problem is, they will land on top of more than $300 billion in leveraged loans and high-yield bonds on the forward calendar (compared with $70 billion a year ago), according to Fitch Ratings, which leads one to wonder if the market can get through it all.

    “I think September and October are going to be bloody months,” says one banker who is not involved in any of the pulled deals. Others are not quite so pessimistic, but Fitch does point out that the bridge loans banks have taken on – as much as $13 billion, if you add all the pulled LBO debt together – could result in tightening credit conditions. (Bear Stearns analysts put the number at $11 billion). In other words, if the capital is tied up in bridge loans, there is less to finance the new deals coming to market. This could result in an increase in refinancing risk to companies whose existing debt is maturing and could ultimately lead to an increase in default rates. There is $415 billion in leveraged loan tranches and approximately $41 billion in high-yield bonds set to mature over the next 18 months.

    “The thing is, speculative-grade companies don’t normally pay off their debt; they roll it over,” says Eric Tutterow, managing director at Fitch. “And if the music stops, a lot of these companies aren’t going to have a seat at the table.”

    http://www.iddmagazine.com/idd/fierce_finance.cfm?id=14103&issueDate=current

  57. RentinginNJ says:

    That 1972 29K house became a 1989 250K house. Since many families had double incomes it allowed them to pay larger mortgages so housing prices rose.

    Home prices peaked in 1989 and then dropped. In fact, that house only got back to $250K 10 years later in 1999. Did women leave the work force in the mid 1990’s?

  58. Pat says:

    New Inv Dave.. I dunno nuttin bout no duplex financing and property management ..but what are looking for? Links? Classes?

  59. ac says:

    skeptic (55),

    What have the equity bulls been saying?

    1. Economy is in great shape (going…)

    2. Interest rates are at historical lows (going…)

    3. Awash in liquidity (gone!)

  60. lurkerA says:

    wow, it’s good to know that whether i make more or less money than my husband i shouldn’t be allowed to make any financial decisions. ive learned so much today.

  61. Seneca says:

    John, #37

    >>Read the book nickeled and dime in america
    >>to see how most working women live.

    I have read it and the fact that you are citing a text by noted feminist author Barbara Ehrenreich as support for your theory on the rise in home prices leads me to believe a debate with you on the fallacies of your argument would be fruitless.

    The tone of your post indicates that you empathize with the blue collar worker who must send his wife to work to help pay the bills, or perhaps are one of those blue collar workers yourself. There are dozens of tangents I could follow-up with (e.g. when the cost of day care exceeds the minimum wage the wife might be earning, it makes no fiscal sense to send her to work in the first place).

    Instead, I will try to keep the focus on Real Estate. You said that direct train line towns are hot because Wall Streeters are making tons of cash and forcing out the blue collar children who grew up there and can no longer afford it. Do you have any statistics on how many of those highly paid Wall Streeters are women vs. men? If you find out its about 20% women vs. 80% men will you still assign those 20% of women the blame for the price increase in housing? Do you think your conclusions sound a bit misogynistic?

    If you have a daughter who wants to pursue a career in finance, will you advise her not to because it won’t be fair to the blue collar folk who won’t be able to afford nice houses when she starts making 5x more money than they do?

    Do you assign no blame at all to the lose credit that has existed for several years now and the blue collar workers who willingly indebted themselves with zero money down loans and adjustable rate mortgages? They didn’t also serve to further drive up home prices?

  62. RentinginNJ says:

    “Think about when Wall Street is hot and towns in BC on the direct train line shoot up because Wall Streeters are making tons of cash.”

    Between 2000 and 2002 (the recession following the dot com blowup), Wall Street bonuses fell by more than half. Total bonuses fell from $19.5B in 2000 to $9.8B in 2002. Average bonuses fell from $100k to $60K.

    During this time, prices in Mapelwood went up 40% in 2 years!. Prices in Millburn went up 28%.

    What drove higher prices during this period of falling overall Wall Street employment and falling salaries?

  63. James Bednar says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. New-Home Sales Decreased 6.6% to an 834,000 Pace

    Purchases of new homes in the U.S. dropped more than forecast in June, signaling no end to the real- estate slump that’s weakened the economy.

    Sales fell 6.6 percent, the most since January, to an annual pace of 834,000 last month from a revised 893,000 rate the prior month that was less than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington.

    Builders may have to cut prices even more and sweeten incentives to turn sales around and trim bloated inventories. Rising mortgage rates and stricter rules to qualify subprime borrowers with poor credit histories will extend the worst housing slump in 16 years and continue to slow growth.

    “The subprime debacle is definitely hurting,” said Zoltan Pozsar, senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania, whose forecast matched the lowest at 850,000. “This points to further construction drag on growth.”

    Economists forecast new home sales would decline to a 890,000 annual pace from an originally reported 915,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists. Forecasts ranged from 850,000 to 925,000.

    Sales of new homes were down 22 percent from the same time last year. The median price of a new home fell 2.2 percent to $237,900 last month from $243,200 a year earlier, the report showed. Purchases approached the seven-year low of 830,000 reached in March.

  64. MrsP says:

    The planning board and the council in Highlands want to take the opposite approach and approve construction of two 20 story high rises – 400 units. Neither the planning board or the council possess enough intelligence to recognize the reports that were issued back in the 70’s still apply today and that the entire hill is going to wind up destroying everything in its path when it collapses…

  65. john says:

    RE: If you have a daughter who wants to pursue a career in finance, will you advise her not to because it won’t be fair to the blue collar folk who won’t be able to afford nice houses when she starts making 5x more money than they do?

    You need a great education to land a husband who can afford to let you stay home in a mcmansion and join the CC. Back in my public accounting days the successful ladies got a top accounting degree from a top school, got a CPA and made Manager and then fought to get assigned to an IB or Hedge Fund so they could meet a rich trader who is looking for a go-getter girl and they retired off to the tony rich surburbs in their triple white jag convert with a maid and a nanny and a hampton house to boot. The 45 yo female partner HAGS aka career women worked all night six days a week while their mealy mouse backseat husbands hid behind their apron strings.

    At my brothers CC, every SVP,EVP, Partner wife has a great education and a great job and ‘cashed in’ at 29 and lives the country club lifestyle at 40!!! I personally don’t know a single 40 YO women who works in my town, their are some but they leave at the crack of dawn for work get home when it is dark and I would not even know they exist except I see their nannys picking up their kids at school.

    The lady Partners had a Mentoring session and described to the 27 yo’s newbies what it took to make it there, and most said “not for me” I am cashing out before I hit 35 and get stuck like those old sea hags in front of the room.

    What is wrong with that I would do the same thing in a second!!! Now back to RE.

  66. Robert says:

    Go ahead and laugh at Barbara Corcoran all you want, but just remember that she is the queeen of NYC real estate. She founded the largest real estate firm in the entire city. I think she knows what she is talking about, but if you would rather beleive anonymous bloggers, go right ahead!

  67. New Investor says:

    “Pat Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 10:25 am
    New Inv Dave.. I dunno nuttin bout no duplex financing and property management ..but what are looking for? Links? Classes?”

    Well, I’ve read several books and have read a lot of stuff on the web as well, but what I’m looking for is a veteran of the industry that I can bounce specific property ideas off of. Somebody who has seen multifamily valuation cycles, for example, and how certain towns can rise and decline in value.

  68. Robert says:

    Hey 3b,

    Looks like your statements regarding that NYC does not have an affect on home prices in NJ is starting to fall apart:

    “Jeffrey G. Otteau, president of Otteau Valuation Group, says the parts of New Jersey popular with commuters into New York are doing best. In those areas, he says, sales are no longer slumping and the number of homes on the market has leveled off. “Proximity to Manhattan is once again becoming the primary force in the market,” he says.”

  69. Robert says:

    Dave,

    I do not think you are going to find the person you are loking for on this site. I own a 2 family house in Brooklyn, but I do not know enough to give advice since I never actually purchased the house.

  70. James Bednar says:

    Robert,

    Didn’t you bash Otteau yesterday? You said something about him being a “little nobody appraiser”, or something of the sort. I believe you also called him a liar in the past as well.

    What changed? Why is he your new best friend?

    jb

  71. Seneca says:

    Dear Seneca,

    If I may quote your advice to someone from several days ago: ““Never argue with a fool. Someone watching may not be able to tell the difference.”

    women on Wall St. force blue collar wives to stand on their feet all day ===> these same women only pursue those careers so they can marry a rich trader and stay at home ===>

    HTTP Error Code 10.4.5 404 – Logic Not Found
    HTTP Error Code 10.4.5 404 – Logic Not Found

    Love,
    Seneca

  72. mifune says:

    Wow, for those who care big downside mvmts in the markets today.
    FTSE down 2.5 % (160 pts)
    DAX down 2% (150 pts)
    CAC down 2% (120 pts)
    DJI down 1.25%
    SPX down 1.5%
    IXIC down 1.3%

    Pretty big sell-offs a’ happenin’.

  73. RentinginNJ says:

    Robert,

    Because Otteau said it it must be true?

    If Wall Street is so important to NJ RE prices, then what is your response to post #63?

  74. James Bednar says:

    Can I ask why we’re even discussing the impact of dual income households on home prices? If we’re looking back at historical trends during that time period, I can understand, but is anyone trying to use it as a justification for today’s prices?

    If we’re talking about current prices, doesn’t it make more sense to discuss recent phenomenon? Not those that occurred almost 50 years ago.

    What about DINKS and the childless couple phenomenon? Double income earners without kids have considerably higher disposable incomes.

    What about retiring boomers?

    Even globalization, although this seems to get quite a bit of billing here.

    jb

  75. James Bednar says:

    I’d have offered up the suggestion of savings rate, consumerism, and conspicuous consumption, but that is a daily topic.

    jb

  76. anon711 says:

    Hi,
    is anybody here familiar with the West Orange area? I saw this newly constructed townhouse for sale and the price doesn’t seem right. I was wondering if it was because of the area.

    3-bedroom, 2-car garage, deck and patio, 3 levels, large kitchen with island and stainless appliances, master bed with walk in closet, hardwood floors,etc. built 2007. taxes 8k. monthly dues $150.

    the price is 360K. 2-bedrooms townhomes don’t even go that low.

    realtor said there’s 5 units for sale. it’s at the southern tip of west orange. we’re gonna take a look at it tonight but I was just curious if someone here has an idea. is it a bad area?
    crime? noise?

    I would appreciate any comments or suggestions. thanks!

  77. James Bednar says:

    I look at the DINK phenomenon as the next logical extension of the Dual-income households.

    Like already mentioned, families moved towards two jobs to increase incomes, simple. What next? Adding a third spouse isn’t exactly easy nowadays, so we do the next logical thing, we cut out excess family members.

    Of course, it’ll be years before such trends become obvious in demographic statistics.

    The DINK phenomenon seems to dovetail very well with the resurgence of urban living. No?

    jb

  78. Seneca says:

    Does anyone have any experience in buying property through forced partition sales? Positives/negatives, etc. Do the same investors who troll for foreclosed properties look for partition sales as well? Are there any of the same hurdles? (having to evict current tenants, buying as-is properties in rundown condition, etc.) Who would likely be the competition when these homes are auctioned off?

  79. NJGal says:

    “What about DINKS and the childless couple phenomenon? Double income earners without kids have considerably higher disposable incomes.”

    Into that I would include the more recently accepted gay couples, who weren’t making the impact years ago because they weren’t accepted. My uncle and his partner have a life most people could only dream of and they’re not hedge fund guys – not nearly. But they live in a beautiful home and are the biggest consumers/travelers I know – that disposable income is no longer limited to male/female couples.

  80. James Bednar says:

    anon,

    Tompkins?

    jb

  81. Stu says:

    The equities markets are crashing. The latest housing numbers were 3 times worse than expected. The home builders are all reporting significantly worse results than projected and some are even taking land writeoffs. My guess is that it is ‘panic’ time. Cash is king and probably will be until we bottom in a year or two.

    Just my 2 cents.

  82. pesche22 says:

    w.orange.

    good luck.

    save your money.

  83. anon711 says:

    what’s Tomkins, jb? can I email you the mls?

  84. mifune says:

    JB – Long term though how sustainable of a trend is DINK?

    Immigration is the only thing keeping the US population expanding.
    The richer China & India become the less people they’ll export and we move closer towards a zero sum (or negative) growth rate. Should DINK become very prevalent this would be disasterous.

    Great topic though.

  85. bi says:

    77#,
    west orange is a buffer zone between newark (orang) and livingston. you really need to check out specific location first

  86. lostinny says:

    75- JB
    From my point of view, I think this came up because of the amount of inflation in the costs of living over time. If it was understood that women are never to enter the workforce and obtain a position where they could add substantially to the income of the household, would men have then gone out and gotten a 2nd or 3rd job to support the family? Or would prices not have increased to the costs they have?

  87. New Investor says:

    “Hi,
    is anybody here familiar with the West Orange area? I saw this newly constructed townhouse for sale and the price doesn’t seem right. I was wondering if it was because of the area.

    3-bedroom, 2-car garage, deck and patio, 3 levels, large kitchen with island and stainless appliances, master bed with walk in closet, hardwood floors,etc. built 2007. taxes 8k. monthly dues $150.

    the price is 360K. 2-bedrooms townhomes don’t even go that low.

    realtor said there’s 5 units for sale. it’s at the southern tip of west orange. we’re gonna take a look at it tonight but I was just curious if someone here has an idea. is it a bad area?
    crime? noise?

    I would appreciate any comments or suggestions. thanks!”

    Definitely take a drive around the neighborhood. I went to high school there (seton hall prep) and there are really nice areas, and shady areas that border on East Orange.

  88. chicagofinance says:

    john Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 8:34 am
    There are NO good jobs in NJ, face it, there are NO good jobs in LI, face it. Why do you think we commute.

    john: F-you. I have a good job.

  89. anon711 says:

    jb,
    I took a second look at the site and yes it is Tompkins…dang you’re good! you have info on it?
    thanks!

  90. john says:

    RE:My uncle and his partner have a life most people could only dream of and they’re not hedge fund guys – not nearly. But they live in a beautiful home and are the biggest consumers/travelers I know – that disposable income is no longer limited to male/female couples.

    Thank God Must People Don’t Dream of that Lifestyle! Couples in that lifestyle who adopt or take the donor approach to have children live similar lifestyles to married couples with kids, one takes on the role of primary child provider and the other as primary break winner.

    Your Uncle and Partner are just DINKS or should I say HDINKS.

  91. lostinny says:

    re: DINK’s
    Are we looking at DINK’s as permanent or temporary? Are DINK’s what they are until they have a child and the second income is saved to allow one to stay home with the kids? Are DINK’s permanent as they have become that for not having the ability (biologically) to have children? Or are DINKs a permanent, “new”, demographic? And to piggyback off an earlier post, I think gay couples should have already been included in the DINK grouping (unless/until) they have children. And that is a whole other “new” demographic.

  92. chicagofinance says:

    Seneca Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 9:27 am
    john (26) and lostinny (30)
    Let me get this straight… you are assigning blame for the rising cost of housing in the 70’s and 80’s to educated women who pursued rewarding careers?

    sen: I agree with them.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    bi Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 9:51 am
    Fed has no choice but cutting rate in next meeting.

    bi: what the hell are you talking about?

  94. make money says:

    I’m a firm believer that one should raise their own kids and not some babysitter you hired at $12 per hour.

    If you can’t afford a nice house with your salary and you choose to sacrifice your child’s well being and future for the second income in order to pay for a mortgage then that speaks of who you are as a person. It revelas your priority for a leased car, a nice house, vacations while your kids are on the path to become emotionally deppresed and next criminals and drug users.

    Being a parent is a full time job. Both me a my wife are retired and we spend all day with our child and when she palys with kids her age everyone can see the difference in the growth of the child.

    My neighboor on the second floor, who overextended themselves to buy in my building went through 3 babysitters in the past 2 months. What impact do you think it has on a child.

    Do you really think the child cares more about the clothes, toy’s or their parents?

    Since most kids can’t have both parents home do you really think it’s perfectly ok for them not to have any?

    .

  95. Robert says:

    “READ MY LIPS: NYC re going to catch pneumonia soon.
    Got it

    Got it!”

    Really? I heard that Manhattan has restless leg syndrome. Apparently all the sellers have restless legs when they go to closing and clean out the buyer!

  96. john says:

    RE – jobs in NJ, face it, there are NO good jobs in LI, face it. Why do you think we commute.

    john: F-you. I have a good job

    You must likely do, but most of surburbs involve something like my dentist office. The dentist makes a killing while the hygenists and other staff make peanuts. Same for my daughters school the Principal and a few senior teachers and admin make money and everyone makes peanuts.

    Exactly how many seven figure jobs are out there in NJ? Blackstone and Goldman have entire floors of people in the seven figures.

  97. NJGal says:

    “Thank God Must People Don’t Dream of that Lifestyle!”

    What is that supposed to mean? Geez, you’re something else.

    Lost, I think it depends – for example, Uncle is a permanent DINK. But all of my friends and I were DINKS until this year when everyone strangely decided to have kids. I think a lot more people are more comfortable deciding NOT to have kids, which is different than several years ago, but I think most DINKS will eventually have them, so I don’t know that we’ll see a significant increase in the overall DINK population – it will remain fluid throughout the “cycles” of DINKS, as people graduate, get married, become DINKS and then leave that lifestyle for kids.

    Although I wonder – with the advent of fertility drugs and in vitro, etc., will more couples, who might have been childless years ago, exit the DINK lifestyle because they can? Would that DECREASE the DINK population?

  98. chicagofinance says:

    New Investor Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 10:17 am
    My agent doesn’t seem to have too much experience with 2-4 unit properties, and my parents are in the business but did it old-school style. By old school I mean putting as much money down as possible, with the goal being to pay off the mortgage as quickly as possible.

    ni: old-school? How about doing it “logic school?”

  99. James Bednar says:

    Only one listing on the MLS, was originally listed at $399k, and was reduced. Other units not listed.

    I’d suggest spending some time in the area.

    jb

  100. lurkerA says:

    92 – I think a lot of demographics are dynamic. A dual-income household can very easily change to a single-income household with the loss of a job. Similarly, DINKs can change once they have kids. Most classifications are dynamic.

  101. Don Mattingly says:

    Stupid question… what does DINK stand for?

  102. BC Bob says:

    Stu [82],

    I wouldn’t call it crashing. The Dow is down 1.59%. That is nothing. Wait until these markets get wound up. Anybody have a Yen for risk?

  103. chicagofinance says:

    ac Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 10:33 am
    skeptic (55),
    What have the equity bulls been saying?
    1. Economy is in great shape (going…)
    2. Interest rates are at historical lows (going…)
    3. Awash in liquidity (gone!)

    ac: ? #3 still exists, just not for stupid crap.

  104. NJGal says:

    Make, you’re an idiot. I don’t even know why I bother to comment, but I wonder how many couples have the luxury of being retired when they have small kids? The answer is probably a fraction of a fraction of a percent – it has little to do with cars and vacations, but eating and putting a roof over their heads, whether they rent or buy.

    When you are part of the normal population, you can make self-righteous comments about people’s choices. But otherwise you should keep your ill-informed opinions to yourself.

  105. dreamtheaterr says:

    #95, make money, on this occasion I agree with you.

    Having said that, I am not against parents who both work and send kids to day care. Life is a series of trade offs…as long as you are happy with the path you have chosen, go for it!

  106. Robert says:

    “What changed? Why is he your new best friend?”

    I think Otteau is a clown, but, since he seems to be the accepted authority and king of real estate facts on this blog, I might as well cite him. If you can’t beat them…

    FYI: I still can’t get over the 10% depreciation he worte in his last report. Where in heaven’s name did that number come from? I had a little faith in him before this, but, after I read that, I lost it all.

  107. James Bednar says:

    DINK = Double Income No Kids

  108. thatBIGwindow says:

    #100: “I’d suggest spending some time in the area.

    jb”

    Really? I wouldn’t suggest spending ANY time in that area.

  109. t c m says:

    what about the effect of divorce on house prices?

    does it drive prices up – since instead of a couple looking for one home, you have 2 people looking to buy 2 homes?

    or does it drive prices down, since incomes aren’t combined – and the cost of divorce seems so high. (child support, alimony, lawyers) money can get tight.

  110. lurkerA says:

    Can we tone down the misogyny today, please?

  111. Robert says:

    My response to #63 is very simple:

    Since when does everyone who works in Manhattan also work on Wall Street? There are other induustries in the city. I have many relatives who work in Manhattan and none of them are in finance.

  112. lostinny says:

    MM
    I agree that having a stay at home parent is best for a child for their growth and development. However, giving parents the benefit of the doubt, I think most families where both parents work, do it because they think they are giving their child a chance at a better life. And honestly, there is a lot of looking down upon families who don’t buy a house when they have kids, whether or not both parents work. Perhaps their incomes are not such so that they can buy.

  113. thatBIGwindow says:

    ” I don’t even know why I bother to comment, but I wonder how many couples have the luxury of being retired when they have small kids? ”

    On the internet, anything is true! Donald Trump babysits my kids.

  114. par4156 says:

    anon711,
    the southern most tip of west orange (around south mountin reservation)is next to south orange. That area has nice homes with large lots and tree lined streets. The south eastern part of west orange is more urban with smaller lots, but has more restaurants, stores, general shopping and easier access to public transportation (trains and buses to NY, Newark, etc).

    I just looked at the posting and it says WALK to train. That means the condos are close to one of the train stations in orange. That is definately a more urban part of west orange. For more information on town profiles in NJ take a look here –
    http://www.nj.com/news/bythenumbers/

  115. Richard says:

    >>Pretty big sell-offs a’ happenin’

    debt based issues with subprime holdings are getting hammered today. still you can’t ignore the nav and ror on some of these puppies. if RSF goes much lower i’m going to pounce. at an almost 15% yield it’s looking yummy.

  116. lostinny says:

    NJGal
    I think the DINK population has already decreased. Check out some newlywed message boards and you’d be amazed at how many women are on some kind of fertility drug, who’s undergone invitro, who is considering adoption because all other options have failed. Without the advances in this area of medicine I believe there would be far far many DINKs.

  117. dreamtheaterr says:

    To clarify, I agree only with the first paragraph of Make Money in #95.

    No one in this world retires in their 30s. Their brains atrophy faster than …(fill in the blank).

  118. Robert says:

    “I’m a firm believer that one should raise their own kids and not some babysitter you hired at $12 per hour.”

    make money,

    How else would people be able to afford to live extravageant lifestyle. I drove through Alpine last year and I sw some young children being pusehd in their baby carriages. And let me tell you something, the women pushing them were not their mothers… I was trying to spot some celebrity homes so I asked one of them where a certain street was and she could not speak a word of English.

  119. DE says:

    Toll Brothers stock continues to plummet.

  120. Richard says:

    >>john: F-you. I have a good job.

    oh look mr. personality just showed up.

  121. RentinginNJ says:

    JB – Long term though how sustainable of a trend is DINK?

    Interesting point. Essentially you are expanding current purchasing power by cannibalizing future demand.

  122. make money says:

    NJGal Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 11:41 am
    Make, you’re an idiot. I don’t even know why I bother to comment, but I wonder how many couples have the luxury of being retired when they have small kids? The answer is probably a fraction of a fraction of a percent – it has little to do with cars and vacations, but eating and putting a roof over their heads, whether they rent or buy.

    When you are part of the normal population, you can make self-righteous comments about people’s choices. But otherwise you should keep your ill-informed opinions to yourself.

    Latrell Sprewell refused at 15 Million dollar contract cause he used the same argument as you do he said” I have a family to feed”. My response was you can buy “costco for 15M”

    I thought your husband is an attorney and he makes 150K. You mean to tell me that it is not enough to support 3 people.

    You choose to work. You choose to buy a house in westchester, you choose to contribute thousands to your retirement, you choose to have 2 cars, You choose to go on vacations, You choose to buy your Coach bag, you choose to buy those shoes.

    It’s all at the expense of your kid. don’t tell me it’s a necessity to put a 3,000 sq foot roof over your kids head. 150K cannot put food on the table. I eat out but how much a groceries these days? $300 per week?

    You’re not a bad person cause you work, you just want to be like everyone else.

    I’m not an idiot cause I’m rich and rich people have opinions too and know about life, especially the self made one’s like myself.

  123. anon711 says:

    thanks jb, par4156, etc. we’ll look at it tonight. hopefully there’s no catch!!

  124. thatBIGwindow says:

    “I’m not an idiot cause I’m rich and rich people have opinions too and know about life, especially the self made one’s like myself”

    Usually the people who brag about being rich, aren’t.

  125. NJGal says:

    Lost,I could not believe, when I got pregnant, how many of the women on the boards were pregnant because of fertility drugs – I had some friends myself who were. I think it could be the scientific advancement of the past decades that has made the most significant impact on the way we live today.

  126. Clotpoll says:

    Dave (55)-

    Your parents have already given you the best advice for RE investment you’ll ever get.

    I’m a Realtor and an investor…and- let me assure you- you now know everything you need to know. It sounds like you’re ambivalent about how they did things, but they were absolutely right. Two other rules:

    1. Don’t buy loss. Negative cash flow is unacceptable, under ANY circumstance.

    2. Don’t buy loss with a coat of lipstick on it. There is no acceptable form of loss.

    Think not? Look at all the “investors” who bought and tried all sorts of plays while things were running hot. Nothing but chalk outlines everywhere.

  127. bi says:

    I am seriously considering buying homebuilder index (XHB) and hedging with lenders. Anybody here knows EFTs for pure mortgage lenders. the closest i know is regional bank index (RKH).

  128. john says:

    American Home Mortgage has a PE of 2. 4 and a yield of 26.10% – AMH claims it will make the divident payment but it looks like Wall Street is saying their Alt A loans are tanked.

    Prev. Close:11.39Open:11.35High:11.35Low:10.55Volume:730,720Volume Avg.:2,039,70052wk Range:10.42 – 36.70Market Cap (mil):582.41P/E Ratio:2.40Dividend Yield:26.10%

  129. James Bednar says:

    DISCLAIMER

    The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances does this information constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, assets, or otherwise.

  130. lostinny says:

    NJGal
    I agree. We’ll have to chat more about this if there is another gtg.

  131. Don Mattingly says:

    Thanks for the clarification, jb.

  132. RentinginNJ says:

    My response to #63 is very simple:

    Since when does everyone who works in Manhattan also work on Wall Street? There are other induustries in the city. I have many relatives who work in Manhattan and none of them are in finance.

    …and just what other industry in NY has seen explosive growth in both numbers of employees and incomes that could even remotely be used as the basis of an argument to justify this idea that NY incomes have caused prices in “premier” NJ towns to double.

    The average income in NYC is around $75,000.

  133. skep-tic says:

    the reality is that dual incomes are a necessity for the vast majority of families. having 1 parent stay home is a luxury these days. of course, there are some affluent families who could afford to have 1 parent stay home but choose not to– but these are not the paradigmatic 2 income family. those who suggests that mothers who work are selfish and cruel to their children or that fathers whose wives work are necessarily lazy and selfish are quite simply out of touch with the reality facing the middle class in this country

  134. Robert says:

    “and just what other industry in NY has seen explosive growth in both numbers of employees and incomes that could even remotely be used as the basis of an argument to justify this idea that NY incomes have caused prices in “premier” NJ towns to double.”

    Healthcare?

  135. Clotpoll says:

    Grim (71)-

    Ducky has the memory of a flea. As long as an “expert” agrees with him, it’s copy…paste…submit.

    Come to think of it, isn’t that all the MSM does?

    Copy…paste…submit.

    CPS.

  136. NJGal says:

    “I thought your husband is an attorney and he makes 150K. You mean to tell me that it is not enough to support 3 people.

    You choose to work. You choose to buy a house in westchester, you choose to contribute thousands to your retirement, you choose to have 2 cars, You choose to go on vacations, You choose to buy your Coach bag, you choose to buy those shoes.

    It’s all at the expense of your kid. don’t tell me it’s a necessity to put a 3,000 sq foot roof over your kids head. 150K cannot put food on the table. I eat out but how much a groceries these days? $300 per week?

    You’re not a bad person cause you work, you just want to be like everyone else.

    I’m not an idiot cause I’m rich and rich people have opinions too and know about life, especially the self made one’s like myself.”

    Ha, first, my husband makes well over 150K. He would be annoyed if I undersold him because he works hard. He does make enough to support 3 people, true, but why should he? And I don’t spend all my money on Coach bags and shoes – give me a break. You don’t know sh-t about me. I’ve never wanted to be like everyone else – I am happy enough doing my own thing, and my husband is the same way. I couldn’t care less about what other people think of me. And by the way, we eat out too –woo, very fancy and special of you.

    And frankly, I wasn’t talking about me – you were lumping ALL working families together. I have friends who don’t make 150K together – what about them? They aren’t working for vacations and fancy cars, I can tell you that. And they would tell you to shove it up you a– for giving your opinion on your life.

    I’m not really sure why you think working parents can’t have normal kids and what’s so wrong about our “choice” to work? My husband’s parents both worked – all three kids are well adjusted and bright – one’s a doctor, one’s a lawyer, one’s a West Point grad – I’d pit them against your kids on normalcy anyday, despite the fact that their parents worked and you don’t. I don’t see any difference in his family and the way the kids turned out than in mine, where my mom stayed home and dad worked.

  137. Robert says:

    Wow, I never knew that people are still flipping in this market. Look at this NYC lawyer who is flipping Trump condos all over the place:

    February 22, 2007 — Once some buyers go Trump, they never go back. Take Michael Cohen, 40, an attorney and partner at Phillips Nizer. He purchased his first Trump apartment at Trump World Tower at 845 United Nations Plaza in 2001. He was so impressed he convinced his parents, his in-laws and a business partner to buy there, too. Cohen’s in-laws went on purchase two more units there and one at Trump Grande in Sunny Isles, Fla.

    Cohen then bought at Trump Palace at 200 E. 69th St., and Trump Park Avenue, where he currently resides. He’s currently in the process of purchasing a two-bedroom unit at Trump Place on Riverside Boulevard – so, naturally, Cohen’s next step is to purchase something at Trump Plaza Jersey City. He’s now in negotiations for a two-bedroom unit there.

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/02222007/realestate/upping_the_ante_realestate_lauren_price.htm

  138. make money says:

    MM
    I agree that having a stay at home parent is best for a child for their growth and development. However, giving parents the benefit of the doubt, I think most families where both parents work, do it because they think they are giving their child a chance at a better life. And honestly, there is a lot of looking down upon families who don’t buy a house when they have kids, whether or not both parents work. Perhaps their incomes are not such so that they can buy.

    How can a child have a better life if they have their own room, their own play room their own backyard but are playing by themselves and/or with a lady from Ecuador who doesn’t speak english? not to mention that she’s doing this for the money and couldn’t care less about the child.

    I beg to differ…

  139. john says:

    Re 132 – Chase, Morgan, Goldman, Merrill and a lot of them froze salaries for highly paid employees after 9/11 and decided to go to a more bonus focused approach. 2002 was a wash out people made half of what they did ni 2000, but now everyone is getting 70-100% bonus on the street three years running for those who survived the lean times. My non Wall Street relatives salaries are up since 2002 but the Wall Street Salaries are double that each year and each year they are falling behind even though they are getting raises. Top talent is hard to get and even harder to keep. A 100K teach who quits there are 10 45K new teachers lined up for their job. When a ten million a year banker quits out walks 100 million in profit so you throw hime another ten million to stay.

  140. Robert says:

    “DISCLAIMER

    The information on this site is provided for discussion purposes only. Under no circumstances does this information constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, assets, or otherwise.”

    What’s happening JB? Are the lawyers breaking down your door? We actually need a disclaimer on a blog? Where has common sense gone?

  141. Clotpoll says:

    Seneca (79)-

    There’s no real market of partition sales- forced or otherwise- that I’ve ever encountered.

    Many partitionable properties are owned by syndicates comprised mostly of 1031 interests. When these partitions occur, the interests are sold within the partnerships.

  142. lurkerA says:

    138 – It’s funny, both of my parents worked, and I have no recollection of spending my free time with a lady from Ecuador.

  143. Kim says:

    Here we go again with the stay-at-home vs. working mother argument. I grew up with a mom who did not work, though many of my friends had mothers who did. All of them are fully grown with no psychological issues that I am aware of.

    I work full-time and have a 7-year-old. My son is a popular, well-adjusted child and many people tell me they have never seen a happier kid. I also get lots of help from the grandparents so that is huge. I work down the road from him so in case there is an emergency I can be there ASAP, and I can work from home or take a vacation day when he’s sick so I never send him to school ill. And my husband works weird hours and is home a few afternoons so I don’t have to do after-school care every day.

    Even though I have to work (I didn’t marry my wonderful husband for his money), I probably would anyway because I don’t like the idea of being 100% dependent on a man. What if something happens to him? We have life insurance if he dies unexpectedly, but what gets hurt or gets sick and goes on long-term disability? Chances are I’d have to go back to work anyway, and then it would be tough to go back when you’ve been out of the workforce for many years. I also like being in a place during the day where I’m not just so-and-so’s mother – I have my own identity and I can talk about other things besides “mother stuff.”

    Happy mother (whether she works or not) = Happy Kid.

  144. bi says:

    132#, 134#,
    you really don’t need another industy to support the price of “premier” towns in nj. Only less than 5% high income is good enough. Remember the people in the similar background or income level tend to live together. this is the base for my prejection that these towns will be up 10% next year.

  145. make money says:

    The average income in NYC is around $75,000.

    source?

  146. skep-tic says:

    #144

    bi– Wall St bonuses were massive this year and yet the premier suburbs are not up 10% YoY. Why will next year be different?

  147. Poor renter says:

    Personally I think both parents working is probably a better example than Dad sitting on the internet all day taling aoubt how great/rich he got from Daddy’s $$.

  148. DebtVulture says:

    There is no bid for anything in the credit markets except Treasuries and credit protection. Very ugly out there. Expect things to get worse as global leverage continues to unwind.

  149. Seneca says:

    #93 chifi
    Thanks for adding to this intellectual debate via a concise and coherent statement that really adds value to the discussion. You make a compelling argument.

    #95 make
    Your comment does not address a two-parent household where each parent enjoys the challenges and rewards of their career. This blog has referenced the Freakonomics study that showed having a parent stay at home had no affect on a child’s development. I am sure we all know kids who turned into drug addicts or criminals regardless of if they went to daycare or had a stay at home parent. Its a personal choice and what works for you isn’t necessarily ideal for all of mankind.

    The only purpose your comments serve are to remind us once again of how unquestionably successful you are since you are retried at 30. That you disguise them as some attempt at moral standard is absurd.

  150. NJGal says:

    “What if something happens to him? We have life insurance if he dies unexpectedly, but what gets hurt or gets sick and goes on long-term disability?”

    That’s a good point, and one made on talk shows all the time – each spouse should be able to support the family, god forbid there should be a divorce or death or injury. Think about all the people who lost their main breadwinner on 9-11. Had there been no settlements or insurance, many of those people would have been in a tight spot – and many still are, because not all of them had the insurance, etc. You just never know, and you don’t want to be in a position where you can’t feed your family.

  151. Robert says:

    The median income in NYC is $40,000

    http://www.census.gov/acs/www/Products/Ranking/2002/R07T160.htm

    Although since the 4 outer boroughs are all NYC wannabees, only the income in Manhattan is relevant.

    In Battery Park City, the median income is $119,000

    http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/New-York/City-of-Greater-New-York/Manhattan/Battery-Park-City-Demographics.aspx

    Columbus Circle: $85,000

    Fifth Avenue: $128,000

    There are more statistics at the above link.

  152. lostinny says:

    MM 138

    You are talking about an extreme that not everyone can afford. Not every family can afford a nanny- many have to send their kids to daycare. Not everyone can afford a separate playroom and seperate bedroom. You are stereotyping based on your own experience. Just because its your experience doesn’t make it everyone’s experience.

    How can a child have a better life if they have their own room, their own play room their own backyard but are playing by themselves and/or with a lady from Ecuador who doesn’t speak english? not to mention that she’s doing this for the money and couldn’t care less about the child.

    I beg to differ…

  153. Kim says:

    njgal #150 – Exactly my point. After 9/11, I could not believe how many of those familes did not have life insurance!

  154. thatBIGwindow says:

    “The only purpose your comments serve are to remind us once again of how unquestionably successful you are since you are retried at 30. That you disguise them as some attempt at moral standard is absurd.”

    Seneca, I believe it stems from low self-esteem : /

  155. ac says:

    anon711,

    You should think hard if you intend to commute regularly via Orange train station. You may get harassed by vagabonds who loiter after 8/9 pm. It might not be an issue to some, but I wouldn’t want my wife or kids out there late at night.

  156. Home Seller says:

    Couple points here

    #113

    People are sadly brainwashed if they think being away from their child all day is more important and beneficial than “materialistic” possesions that the extra income would provide.

    #133

    Dual incomes for parents w/kids are NOT a necessity in most cases I’ve found. Unfortunately, most families are not willing to make the tough choices and SACRIFICE many luxuries to make it work.

    Lastly, Working girl don’t be bitter if you choose to work over spending the most important years of your childs life w/them….its your choice.

  157. make money says:

    kim,

    you’re a special example. Great job.

    I think I’m a little misunderstood in this blog. Maybe it’s because my lack of written communication skills.

    I’m against two working parents when it’s not necessary. If you have one parent making 150K or more then it’s not necessary.

    Especially when the second salary come’s from a job that takes up 60 hours a week+commute+weekends.

    Everything in life is a trade off, it hurts to see parents with $350 dollar jeans and 30K on their wrist and thier child sits on a thousand dollar carriage pushed by an African lady who’s on the her cell phone while the child’s diaper is full and the child is screaming his head off.

    that’s all.

  158. Clotpoll says:

    Bi (127)-

    Texas hedge.

  159. ac says:

    chifi (104), maybe so but I think the problems with Chrysler and Boots are just an indication that the vise is just starting to get tighter.

  160. Lukas Bux says:

    Hi…could some nice RE knowledgeable person explain to me how to interpret the LNDASSMT, BLDASSMT figures on an MLS sheet.

    I am curious as to what figures into those numbers. While the land assessment seems to make sense (this much land in this community is assessed at this, while this much land in that community is assessed at that). The building assessments seem to have weird disparities.

    Any help greatly appreciated.

  161. lurkerA says:

    156 – MM if that’s actually your point, please try your best to not make it seem as though you are expanding it to all dual-income couples. also, it makes you sound like a simple-minded, misogynistic a-hole. but that’s just my opinion, of course. i think that the situation you are describing is the exception, not the rule and it’s completely unfair to assume that it applies to everyone.

  162. James Bednar says:

    From NJ.com:

    Court: Residents must follow association rules

    In a unanimous ruling, the state Supreme Court today said residents of homeowners associations are not entitled to free-expression rights guaranteed by the Constitution.

    The court overturned an appeals court ruling and reinstated a decision by a Mercer County trial judge that said the residents of Twin Rivers, a 10,000-unit housing development, did not have their rights violated when the homeowners association placed restrictions on where residents can post signs, and who can use the community room and newsletter.

    The court said the property is private, and the people who live there do not have constitutional protections.

    “We start from the proposition that all citizens of this state, including the residents of Twin Rivers, possess the constitutional right to free speech and assembly. We acknowledge, however, that those rights are not absolute, as citizens may waive or otherwise curtail their rights. … we conclude the association’s policies, as set forth in its rules and regulations, do not violate our constitution,” wrote Justice John Wallace.

  163. Lukas Bux says:

    Hey make money (#156)…why does it have to get racial?

    That is an ignorant statement as evidenced by the fact that those “African women” are usually from the Caribbean.

    Why are you “for” or “against” the way other people structure their families? Just keep your own house clean.

  164. James Bednar says:

    Hi…could some nice RE knowledgeable person explain to me how to interpret the LNDASSMT, BLDASSMT figures on an MLS sheet.

    Those are tax assessments. The source of those figures are the municipal tax records. At a minimum, you’ll need the tax rate to make sense of the numbers, it also helps to know when the last reassessment was done.

    Are you trying to use those numbers to determine some kind of valuation?

    jb

  165. lostinny says:

    Homeseller
    I don’t understand. Are you saying that being away from the child all day to gain those luxuries are more important then staying home? If that’s what you’re saying then you misunderstood my post.

  166. AntiTrump says:

    The decline in the stock market is bringing a smile to my face. Through research and some luck, I cashed in at close to the top of the housing market. I hope I am right about the stock market too.

    It’s a nice day today !!

  167. NJGal says:

    Yeah I am wondering where all these comments about people choosing luxuries over their kids are coming from. That’s something MM made up in his head because he’s out of touch with reality – sure, there may be some people doing that, but from my experience that’s not the case at all. The only person I know with a 30K watch and a Mercedes is a guy who’s wife stays at home.

  168. Lukas Bux says:

    JB,
    Thanks. Yes, I was wondering if they could be used to determine some sort of comparative value, but your point about the tax rate is well taken. As I was trying to explain, I can understand how the land would vary in assessed value because this county would say this land is worth this much, while in that county it would be considered to be worth more.

    But with regard to the structure, it seems like a sturdy 4 BR in this town, would be assessed the same as a comparable sturdy 4 BR in that town unless they are taking location into it a second time (once for the land and once for the building).

  169. 3b says:

    #19 John: Just finished going through inventory for all the popular train towns in BC, lots of inventory in all of them. The guy appears to be clueless.

    Wall St Bonuses next year? But of course, except perhaps for those involved in the CMO?CDO mess.

    Only problem is on the street, is that when one area int he firm feels the pain, they all do.

  170. make money says:

    Nj gal,

    If you’re in manhattan during morning and afternoon hours take a walk to the nearest kid park and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

  171. James Bednar says:

    Stop loss’ed a number of short-term positions earlier this week, in preparation for being out of the country. So much for that, got stopped out of everything today.

    jb

  172. skep-tic says:

    I guess the people here who blast the families where the wife works don’t know anyone without a white collar job. what about the guy who works in a warehouse whose wife is a waitress? or the families were the husband works construction and the wife works in Target? every day you interact with many people in low wage jobs both male and female– do you think these people don’t have families? I will say it again– for either parent to not work is a pure luxury today.

  173. 3b says:

    #39 BC Wall Street has already caught a cold. An again (filled with exhaustion) How does an industry with 260K people (and only the top small peice making the uber-bucks) involved in it have that much influence on a metro area with 30 million people or so;my answer of course it does not.

    Back to that WS cold, Citigroup and JP Morgan are already laying people off, they have been since the begining of this year.

  174. Seneca says:

    #141 Clot, Thanks for the info. I hear about a lot of these sales via lawyer friends and from what I gather, these are families fighting over property. So in the select cases I know of, we are not talking about 1031 exchange properties. I was just wondering if there was some way to know when these sales are coming up short of reading those tiny sheriffs auction notices, and, if as an individual, I would be bidding against developers, professional investors and/or (from what I gather), the partial-owner-family members themselves.

    #143 Kim:
    >> Happy mother=happy kid
    Exactly!

    #150 NJGal:
    Another excellent reason for why women should continue to work that has been in the headlines lately thanks to Leslie Bennetts book The Feminine Mistake. She reviews in-depth research and real life examples of women who sacrifice their financial autonomy by quitting their jobs and end up vulnerable to divorce, or loss of family income if their spouses fall ill, lose a job or die. If I wanted to be dramatic and over-generalize like some on this blog tend to, I would suggest women who stay at home are the ones jeopardizing the welfare of their children and family. But I don’t subscribe to the belief that everyone has to fit neatly into the buckets of right and wrong that others do.

    #153 tbw – in reading your comment I see I misspelled retired as retried. and yes, mm clearly has self-esteem issue but “the really tough thing about humility is you can’t brag about it.” -Gene Brown

  175. James Bednar says:

    Thanks. Yes, I was wondering if they could be used to determine some sort of comparative value, but your point about the tax rate is well taken.

    It can be done, but not with enough accuracy to be useful. I’ve used that methodology to track condos & coops. However, the reason it works is because you have a large percentage of similar units that have been assessed in a similar fashion. To compare SFH across town, you’d need to make a number of significant assumptions. I’m not sure the technique would be of much value. Even worse, you could come to an entirely wrong conclusion based on it.

    jb

  176. 3b says:

    To all there will be no Fed Rate cur this year, guranteed. Repeat no cut this year. We will be well into 08 before that happens.

    I will be accepting all apologies form those who belive otherwise on 12/31/06.

  177. lurkerA says:

    #175 – seneca – i know you weren’t responding to me, but I agree with your suggestion about stay at home moms. id like to add that personally, i dont want my children (who don’t actually exist) to be raised to think in terms of strict gender roles where the mom stays home and the dad goes to work, and if it’s not that way, somehow the dad is less of a man and the mom is a terrible person. i tend to believe that that sort of thinking leads to a lot of the generalizations that were brought up earlier.

  178. NJGal says:

    Seneca, I think I would like to check ou that book and Freakonomics (no, I haven’t read it yet – keep meaning to).

    MM, I do see those people in NYC – but you don’t know their stories or backgrounds, so how can you judge? I know people who live in NYC and both parents work – b/c it’s too expensive here not to. And yes, they made the choice to live here, but maybe there was good reason.

    And NYC is a different sort of place – not representative of most of society, despite it’s supposed “diversity.”

  179. AntiTrump says:

    The idiots who are calling a recovery of housing this year or have already called the bottom of housing have no clue of the pain that is coming.

  180. AntiTrump says:

    including my friend otteau.

    People have underestimated the amount of fraud that and creating accounting that has kept this boom alive.

    On the face of it the prices seems to be holding up for housing cause of the hidden incentives, but this can go on for only so long.

  181. skep-tic says:

    New home sales fell 6.6% to 834,000 in June, according to a Department of Commerce report.
    That number falls below a revised rate of 893,000 in May and is 22.3% below the June 2006 estimate of 1.073 million new homes sold.
    ***********

    the decline this year is so far beyond what was predicted.

  182. RentinginNJ says:

    “and just what other industry in NY has seen explosive growth in both numbers of employees and incomes that could even remotely be used as the basis of an argument to justify this idea that NY incomes have caused prices in “premier” NJ towns to double.”

    Healthcare?

    Healthcare did create a lot of jobs in NYC since 2000 (57,000 jobs).

    The average salary in healthcare in NYC is $43,000. Salary increases since 2000 have barely outpaced inflation.

    I don’t think healthcare in NYC is a bib player in driving up NJ home prices.

  183. New Investor says:

    Clotpoll Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 11:53 am
    Dave (55)-

    Your parents have already given you the best advice for RE investment you’ll ever get.

    I’m a Realtor and an investor…and- let me assure you- you now know everything you need to know. It sounds like you’re ambivalent about how they did things, but they were absolutely right. Two other rules:

    1. Don’t buy loss. Negative cash flow is unacceptable, under ANY circumstance.

    2. Don’t buy loss with a coat of lipstick on it. There is no acceptable form of loss.

    Think not? Look at all the “investors” who bought and tried all sorts of plays while things were running hot. Nothing but chalk outlines everywhere.”

    Clot-
    Thanks for your advice. All material I’ve recently read expounds maximum leverage; put only 5-10% down in order to get the best ROI.

    The problem in the NJ market with this approach is exactly what you warned against. It seems like a rare find when you can put down that little and actually generate a positive cash flow.

    The problem I see with my parents’ approach is that they have huge amounts of equity in their properties which is lying there untapped. I would use that substantial equity to acquire additional income-generating properties, if I was in their position.

    Am I crazy?

  184. Lukas Bux says:

    I beg to differ, NYC is different and not representative of society because of its diversity.

    Most of America is NOT diverse. Most of America is still very white and homogeneous.

  185. dreamtheaterr says:

    USD Yen anyone? Geez……….

  186. Home Seller says:

    For those dual workers who choose to work instead of one parent staying home, I’m truly curious what your main reason is for working instead of staying home and taking care of your kids?

    Is it financial? Is it the “challenge” of working? Is being a ‘stay at home’ parent somewhat beneath you?

    I am curious to hear why?

  187. Zack says:

    Run and Hide. The massacre has begun. Dow off by 300 points. Wonder what’s is going in the minds of bagholders!!
    Run and Hide. Begin of the downfall. Doomsday is here!

  188. Stu says:

    Now can we say equity markets are crashing?

  189. lurkerA says:

    Home Seller – I actually don’t have kids, but don’t plan on staying home, nor will my husband, when and if we decide to have kids. Having said that, I just think it’s a matter of personal choice. Everyone’s situation is different and I can’t imagine judging someone’s reasons for making such a huge decision, whatever their decision may be.

  190. Home Seller says:

    #188

    Zack- You’re not serious right? The dow has been flirting w/record highs of 14K. a Couple hundred point haircut is a blip on the screen for long term investors.

    Your really giving the doomsdayers a bad name.

  191. James Bednar says:

    Now can we say equity markets are crashing?

    Crashing? Nah.. Perhaps just the return of volatility?

    jb

  192. dreamtheaterr says:

    Stu, a 3% blip is not a crash. If you look at it in the context of the past one month, we’re marginally below break-even. Not too shabby….

  193. Home Seller says:

    #190

    Don’t be so sure. Let me tell you from personal experience that you might change your mind once you have kids.

    Just a thought because people really have no idea how big of a life change it is once you have kids.

  194. lurkerA says:

    194 – and to prove my point exactly, please don’t judge my decision. you have no idea how and why i’ve made that decision or what my personal situation is.

    i hate the “you’ll see when you have kids…” argument. yes i DO realize what a huge thing it is.

  195. lisoosh says:

    Wow, us moms are damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

    I gave up a lucrative position to stay home with my kids (supermom/ selfless martyr to the greater good), but gave up big time on household income in order to do so, just as the bubble began (making me a loser renter /wannabe homeowner who doesn’t try hard enough to increase my income or MAKE MONEY).
    Of course I plan on returning to work soon as my kids are getting bigger and off to school so I guess that makes me a rotten horrible person who is ignoring my kids for material gain. But I’ll have a bigger house and probably buy it so that makes me more socially acceptable and better invested in the community.

    Just glad I wasn’t planning on house hunting in Great Uppington or Lower McHaughty. I like those areas with a slightly more realistic and less judgemental demographic.

    I’d hang with NJGal though.

  196. NJGal says:

    Uh, yeah the markets are just diving. What’s going on?

    “Is it financial? Is it the “challenge” of working? Is being a ’stay at home’ parent somewhat beneath you?

    I am curious to hear why?”

    I’ll bite – two reasons – financial and personal. One, it’s very hard to live in the NY area without two incomes. And yes, we all make choices, blah blah, but not all of us are vacationing to Paris twice a year and buying expensive cars and consumer goods. And like many, we still have a few student loans (and I know many more people with more than we have who make less than we do). So, to not live paycheck to paycheck tends to require two incomes around here. And if you have a problem with people’s “choices,” too bad for you.

    And personal – I worked hard for my JD and I’m someone who enjoys working. It has nothing to do with the challenge of it, I just enjoy it, and the adult interaction.

    Why is it that people who don’t work (or have a spouse who doesn’t work) try to paint it as though those of us who work think we’re somehow above those who don’t? I have seen more snobbery and self-righteousness amongst the “non-working” folk than those who do. Perhaps who are uncomfortable with your situation, but that’s your problem.

  197. Lukas Bux says:

    JB…thanks for the assessment value insight.

  198. James Bednar says:

    From PR Newswire:

    Wells Fargo Closes Nonprime Wholesale Lending Business

    Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, a division of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., said today that it will close its nonprime wholesale lending business, which processes and funds nonprime loans for third-party mortgage brokers. In 2006, this business represented 1.6 percent of Wells Fargo’s total residential mortgage loan volume of $397.6 billion(1).

    “Wells Fargo will continue to offer nonprime loans in channels where the company has direct relationships with consumers, including Wells Fargo Home Mortgage’s retail channel and Wells Fargo Financial, an affiliate of Wells Fargo Bank, N.A,” said Cara Heiden, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage division president. “The decision to close our nonprime wholesale lending business has no effect on Wells Fargo’s robust prime lending business which has long held an industry leading position. We will continue to offer prime loans through all our distribution channels, including wholesale.”

    “For the foreseeable future, we believe continued turmoil in the nonprime sector will result in financial returns for our nonprime wholesale channel that are not commensurate with the risks inherent in this business,” Heiden stated. “As a result, we have chosen to discontinue this channel.”

    As part of this decision, the company will close its nonprime wholesale operations in Baton Rouge, La., and Des Moines, Iowa. In Baton Rouge, where Wells Fargo does not have a significant presence, 170 positions will be affected and the company will work with other companies to identify local opportunities. In addition, team members will be encouraged to seek other positions within Wells Fargo & Company which has 168,000 team members across North America and is one of the United States’ 25 largest employers. In metro Des Moines, where Wells Fargo has 11,700 team members, the Company is working to identify positions in other areas of the organization for the 67 affected team members.

  199. chicagofinance says:

    Seneca Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 12:16 pm
    #93 chifi
    Thanks for adding to this intellectual debate via a concise and coherent statement that really adds value to the discussion. You make a compelling argument.

    sen: chill out please. In the past, having both spouses work generated an economic advantage. As it has been more the norm in society, prices have adjusted, and as a result, there is no advantage to both spouses working, but there is a distinct disadvantage to removing one from the workforce. Are you satisfied now? The psychological and physical effects of these choices have not been uniformally accepted through rigorous clincial research, but anecdotally, you end up with rush food preparation [qulaity of food ingested diminishes] and too much TV/videogame/PC babysitting. The net result is a fat, ADHD, socially retarded generation of drones that will be our future leaders.

  200. NJGal says:

    “Just glad I wasn’t planning on house hunting in Great Uppington or Lower McHaughty.”

    Hahahaha! Was it the movie “Mame” where the house was called “Upson Downs”? I think I should give my house a name…McHaughty Hill would be a good one…

  201. Stu says:

    And do not forget about the social benefits afforded a child in daycare vs. one raised at home. Plus, my son has built an immunity to most common ailments making it less likely that he will miss much elementary school.

    At first, I was very concerned about the effects of having a child raised by daycare. Now I can’t imagine how difficult it would have been to provide the same quality of learning environment at home. At daycare he has access to pools, playground equipment, computers, books, music teachers, instruments, etc. At home he would have had little of this.

    The choice to raise a child at home is admirable, but when I think of how maladjusted to society some of my home-schooled room mates were in college, I feel no shame in enrolling him in daycare.

  202. lurkerA says:

    NJGal – I 100% agree with you.

    “Why is it that people who don’t work (or have a spouse who doesn’t work) try to paint it as though those of us who work think we’re somehow above those who don’t? I have seen more snobbery and self-righteousness amongst the “non-working” folk than those who do. Perhaps who are uncomfortable with your situation, but that’s your problem.”

  203. Home Seller says:

    197

    Nj Gal, Umm the markets are not crashing. Just the opposite, they are more robust than ever.

    “It is very hard to live in the NYC area without two incomes”

    BINGO, of course it is! Noone said its easy! That’s what the word SACRIFICE means. I’m sure if you guys went over your financial picture you could manage it. Do you want to make the hard decisions or not?

    “I enjoy the challenge and adult interaction”

    Well, if you think that’s more important than staying home w/your kids than good luck w/your decision.

  204. Home Seller says:

    #202

    Hey Stu, you really think its better to send a child to daycare than it is to be raised at home?

    Oh boy, the answers here get better and better….

  205. Lukas Bux says:

    Home Seller…I do hope you are teaching your kids each day how to ride such a high horse.

  206. Home Seller says:

    #203

    lurker, its not snobbery. Its wanting to spend as much time as possible raising my kids vs. satisfying selfish needs as evidenced by the responses on the board

  207. New Investor says:

    Clotpoll:

    Do you live/work near Branchburg, NJ? I clicked your nick hyperlink and it took me to Branchblog.com. I work here in Branchburg, and have some questions about the local RE market.

  208. James Bednar says:

    From Reuters:

    Wells Fargo shuts nonprime mortgage unit,cuts jobs

    Wells Fargo & Co., the second-largest U.S. mortgage lender, said on Thursday it will close its nonprime wholesale lending business, which processes and funds loans for third-party brokers, citing turmoil in the market for riskier home loans.

  209. NJGal says:

    Home Seller, really, get over yourself. We make plenty of sacrifices and have made our decision and are happy with it.

    Apparently you are not happy with yours, or you would not be judging people. I am confident that my kids will turn out just fine, as did all of my well-adjusted, successful friends who had working parents did. Seriously, it’s time to stop judging other people’s situations just because you are for some reason obviously not comfortable with your own decision.

  210. lurkerA says:

    207 – it IS snobbery simply because you’re assuming that the reason is simply to satisfy selfish needs. there are other reasons to what to not stay home.

  211. JLB says:

    The most interesting question raised in this whole debate of working vs. nonworking parents is the comment that you are doing your child a disservice if you rent. Is that true, are you cheating your child if you don’t own a home? what do they miss out on?
    ABSOLUTELY AGREE with Kim,
    Happy Mother,Father=Happy Kid!!!!!

  212. NJGal says:

    By the way, Home Seller, how is your decision less selfish than anyone else’s? After all, you are doing what YOU want (or so you say).

    What happens when those precious jewels are out of the house from 7 to 3 or later, with activities? Plan to sit around picking your nose while you pat yourself on the back about how you’re the best parent in the world?

  213. Home Seller says:

    #210

    We could’ve had two incomes easily w/more disposable income, but we chose to do it this way. I couldn’t (and my kids) couldn’t be happier w/our decision.

    The pictures and memories of will last a lifetime w/our son and daughter.

  214. lurkerA says:

    Home Seller – I just want to add that my both of parents worked (well, for most of my childhood they did) and I can’t say it has impacted me negatively in any way. I’m perfectly well adjusted, intelligent, well educated, and professionally successful.

  215. Home Seller says:

    #213

    Oh, now your saying I’m SELFISH because my wife stays at home?

    You really must have some issues if your sadly trying to justify your position this way….

  216. NJGal says:

    “ABSOLUTELY AGREE with Kim,
    Happy Mother,Father=Happy Kid!!!!!”

    I meant to say I agree as well – there is nothing more important than having a happy, loving family, no matter what it looks like.

  217. Richard says:

    check out all the working mom’s up in arms about someone daring to question their reasons to work instead of spending irrecoverable years with their offspring. from what i gather on this board most can make the sacrifice of having a 1-income household, they just choose not to. that’s your choice so call it what it is.

  218. NJGal says:

    “Oh, now your saying I’m SELFISH because my wife stays at home?

    You really must have some issues if your sadly trying to justify your position this way….”

    Well, that seems to be YOUR justification for your argument – everyone else who works is selfish, you’re somehow special. You have yet to give another reason.

  219. NJGal says:

    Oh now Reechard weighs in. Great. Opinions are like…well you know the rest.

  220. Lukas Bux says:

    Home Seller…you mean you aren’t even the one who stays home?!?! And you have all those opinions about how great it is to stay home??

    What a joker.

  221. ac says:

    NYSE Trading stops have been in place twice today. If it isn’t a crash, it sure looks like things are just starting to move.

  222. Richard says:

    if you are going to have kids and let someone else raise them what’s the point of having them at all? to say both parents worked and one kid turned out fine if not better than another who had a stay at home parent is not the point. there are people that turned out just fine who’s parent might’ve been a career criminal or serial killer but that’s not the point. it’s all about maximizing your chances of success. this is why the most desirable towns are those with low crime rates and good schools.

  223. lurkerA says:

    Ok, I just want to say – this was my whole point. I would never judge someone about their decision to stay home or not, you simply don’t know how and why they decided to do this. It’s a HUGE decision. What’s right for me, isn’t necessarily right for someone else. Sorry to get all.. whatever, i can’t think of the word.. but it’s completely ridiculous to assume that the decision one family makes is the right decision for EVERY family on the planet. It’s simply not the case.

  224. Home Seller says:

    #219

    the easy way out is for both parents to work if they don’t have to. I think I am special because I want my kids to have a parent at home raising them if I have the choice to do so. In the meantime making sacrifices to do it.

  225. Home Seller says:

    #224

    Why are you getting in a tissie and avoiding a specific reason for my original question?

    Keep calm and answer the question, will you?

  226. CaCa de Vaca says:

    Staying @ Home or Day Care…

    Do what makes your family happy and shut yer whiney yappers.

  227. JLB says:

    What do you think about a child in a rented apartment versus a child in a owned home? Does one have an advantage?

  228. lurkerA says:

    226 – Because i think my reasons are personal and not for anyone to judge. and i’m perfectly calm, thank you very much.

  229. Home Seller says:

    #229

    Ahhh, that’s a cop out and you know it. I’ll take it as an answer for selfish reasons.

    No one here is taking you seriously unless you can discuss specifically…

  230. Lukas Bux says:

    Home Seller…truth be known, no one is taking you very seriously either.

  231. lurkerA says:

    230 – and no one here is taking you seriously because you’re coming off as judgemental and ridiculous.

    That’s my answer. It’s not a cop out. Look, it doesn’t matter what my decision is, it’s my decision, isn’t it? And unless my future children grow up to somehow negatively impact society, I don’t think it’s anyone’s business.

  232. lisoosh says:

    NJGal – do what you need to do, but welcome to the world of mommy abuse. You’ll have strangers feeling up your bump next and later little old ladies shouting at you in the supermarket because they don’t think you dress your child appropriately.

    I’m glad I stayed home with my kids during their infancy, but also have them enrolled in nursery school for socialization and they absolutely love it and would spend more time there if they could. It is really hard to keep them busy as they get older.

    From what I have seen as an insider, the stay-at-home thing has become a bit fetishised. It probably isn’t any healthier to make kids the center of the universe a la MM than to work 100 hours a week – imagine the pressure of being your parents life, hobby, entertainment and plans for the future all wrapped into one. Plus staying home with kids is actually pretty boring, lots of women become all wrapped up in PTAs and other stuff purely for something to do and interaction with other adults. Why on earth does anyone think that so many women in the ’50’s were all doped up on Valium and martinis? Menu planning for a family of 4 year in year out, constant cleaning and picking up and oohing and ahhing endlessly over crayon scribbles is mind numbing and probably counterproductive.

    And I’ll bet many here going on about sacrificing everything for the kids also complain about how kids today are spoiled, self entitled, over hyped on self esteem and know the value of nothing.

    Balance is key. Kids need a handle on reality. They need to be a part of the world, not the absolute center of it.

  233. Home Seller says:

    #232

    Ok, let me get this straight. You engage in a conversation but when a gun’s to your head, your afraid to answer a specific question by giving vague random “its noone’s business” answers…

    pretty lame

    Listen, if you admit its for selfish reasons, that’s OK, at least your acknowledging it.

  234. BC Bob says:

    Just hope that one spouse is not short the yen.

  235. curiousd says:

    DINKs are so 2005. SITCOMs are the future.

  236. New Investor says:

    I wonder what percentage of stay-at-home moms have affairs?

  237. curiousd says:

    Single
    Income
    Two
    Kids
    Oppressive
    Mortgage

  238. lurkerA says:

    234 – No, that has been my response to your question since you first asked it. I’m only engaging in the conversation because you are being so incredibly offensive to me, that I can’t imagine not responding (though that probably would have been the right thing for me to have done. I think i posted more today than i have total up until today).

    If you want to assume it’s because I’m selfish, that’s fine, I will assume that your wife stays home because you are a misogynistic, stuck in the 50s, closed minded a-hole of a man that probably treats his children and wife like pieces of property.

    so we’re even.

  239. Home Seller says:

    From #233

    Another gem….here’s a quote

    “From what I have seen as an insider, the stay-at-home thing has become a bit fetishised. It probably isn’t any healthier to make kids the center of the universe a la MM than to work 100 hours a week”

  240. lostinny says:

    Well ladies since we’ve been moved back a few decades, here’s some “sage” advice for us:
    http://j-walk.com/other/goodwife/index.htm

  241. Lukas Bux says:

    BC Bob…how bout that. Serious move below 119. Carry trade unwinding?

  242. Richard says:

    >>I think I am special because I want my kids to have a parent at home raising them if I have the choice to do so. In the meantime making sacrifices to do it.

    these days you are. it’s the materialistic me generation where luxury is the new norm. god forbid people have to sacrifice their material possessions they’d rather offer up their children at the altar.

  243. Home Seller says:

    #239

    No, we’re not even. You work when you can stay home with your kids instead.

    Don’t try to justify your selfishness by another lame response.

  244. Mike NJ says:

    MM

    My wife and I do well and our 3 year old is in day care. He is a wonderful child. Yes, not having my wife at home was difficult but also living in a house in a nice town so we could give him the same life that we had as children makes it mandatory that we both work. To speak from your ivory tower where you are retired at such a young age IS NOT REALITY. You are statistically less than 1% of 1% of 1% of the population. My wife will quit work when our twins are born in December for the same reasons anyone can imagine. I want her home and we will eat ramen noodles and skip the vacations to do so. These are very tough decisions and when you so eloquently denounce such a massive percentage of the population without ANY EXPERIENCE living their lives basically makes your opinion worthless, statistically speaking.

    Walk a mile in OUR shoes before you open your mouth.

  245. lisoosh says:

    “JLB Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
    What do you think about a child in a rented apartment versus a child in a owned home? Does one have an advantage?”

    No. I don’t think it makes a difference, although homes can be rented too and apartments bought (really, what else is a condo?). I currently rent a townhouse and my kids have a great time playing outside with neighbourhood kids just like we did years ago before everyone became overscheduled.

    I did bring it up in a previous comment but it was meant to be a sarcastic take on posters here who claim that home “ownership” makes one a better citizen.

  246. dreamtheaterr says:

    “Menu planning for a family of 4 year in year out, constant cleaning and picking up and oohing and ahhing endlessly over crayon scribbles is mind numbing and probably counterproductive.”

    Lishoosh, well said. I have no doubt that my wife will enter the workforce when our baby goes to pre-school. Why? Because she is an educated adult and needs adult interaction too. There is a limit to 24 hours of ooh, aah, how cute, etc all the time.

    The overwhelming majority of parents make the decision based on their personal situation and circumstances. Painting every working mom as selfish is absolutely ridiculous. We’re happy with our decision where wife stays home, and have friends who are happy with their decision to send baby to daycare.

  247. lurkerA says:

    244 –

    1. i dont have kids
    2. you dont know that i do have the option of staying home. you know absolutely nothing about me.
    3. i’m not trying to justify anything.

    and yes, we’re even. I hope you enjoy the pot roast your valium-taking wife, who is sleeping with the milkman, has been spending all day preparing.

    and now i am bowing out of this ridiculous exchange.

  248. NJGal says:

    Lisoosh, great post – there are always two sides to every story and you make good points. I can see now what happens to a stay at home mom who never gets back into a life of her own after the kids are grown – my mother. She still tries to be overly involved, and while I love her to bits, I wish she had something more than us to focus on – even my father wishes it, for her sake, especially as he gets older and realizes that he is likely to go before she does. It’s all about finding balance and unless you do, you and your kids both suffer for it. I just recently had a friend who stays at home say that she wishes she had at least stayed on part-time.

    Lurker, ignore the ignorant Home Seller – judgmental people are useless whether they are working or stay at home. I have many stay at home mom friends who would HATE Home Seller, and would never ever judge another person’s decisions. Your reasons are your own and you don’t have to tell some jerk on a message board why you made your decision. Especially when his only response is “selfish!” I bet even if you were working to support an ill or dying parent, you’d get the same response from him.

  249. Home Seller says:

    #247

    And the gems just keep on coming….listen to this justification of working vs. staying at home…

    “I have no doubt that my wife will enter the workforce when our baby goes to pre-school. Why? Because she is an educated adult and needs adult interaction too. There is a limit to 24 hours of ooh, aah, how cute, etc all the time.”

    Your twisted man…..really

  250. lisoosh says:

    #240 – in what regard is that quote a gem?

    I live the life you claim your wife does and I find your attitude arrogant, judgemental pushy and puritanical.

  251. Kim says:

    I work because I have to. My husband and I make around $115K/year combined. Not too good for northern NJ. OK, here comes the question… why do we stay here if it’s so expensive? We stay here because our families are here, my son’s cousins are here, and we live in a small town where everyone knows each other and supports each other. Unfortunately, our town is pricey so we’re paying down debt and saving like crazy to buy a house here. We could afford something farther west, but then our commutes would be longer, so we’d rather pay cheap rent in the town we hope to buy in someday. Also, my husband had bad luck in the past with layoffs, and his job will probably be lost in a year or so, so he’s going back to school at night. We drive paid-off cars made in 1999 and 2000. We go on camping vacations and rarely go out to eat. We don’t belong to a gym – we have weights in our basement and job in our nice neighborhood. My son complains that he wants a bigger house, but he’s got every toy in creation so we tell him to suck it up, he’s lucky he has a roof over his head, food on the table and a close-knit family that loves him. So much for sacrificing to live a high-flying lifstyle! We are leaders of his Cub Scout den, and volunteered only because no one else would – even though most of the mothers of kids in our den don’t work. Both of us go to EVERY baseball and football game he has – never missed one. I do, however, see many of the stay-at-home mothers miss their kids games. Probably because they need to get stuff done around the house that they can’t do when the kids are home.

    Good point on the immunity you get in daycare. My sister-in-law doesn’t work and she and my brother have two kids. They are sick ALL THE TIME. My son is never sick. Maybe once a year for a day, but that’s it.

    But that said, even if I didn’t HAVE to work, I probably still would. Unless we win the lottery, which is impossible since we don’t play.

  252. lurkerA says:

    249 – NJGal – yes, you’re right. i should have stopped responding ages ago.

  253. BC Bob says:

    Lukas [242],

    The world is tilted one way. Carry me or Cover me?

  254. Home Seller says:

    Ummm when your resoning is that there’s a limit to 24 hours of ooh, aah, how cute, etc…

    Again, the interaction with your little ones is 1000X BETTER than the interaction of sending faxes to joe blow in Iowa.

    “adult interaction” to be out in the workforce vs. staying at home is a very lame reason…sorry

  255. Seneca says:

    There are not enough hours in the day to respond to all the progressive thinkers here. I suggest we call it a day on this stay-at-home parenting thing. The instigators are clearly not looking to agree on any grey area.

  256. JLB says:

    #249 NJGAL: isn’t it a little sad that in your response is your judgement on your mother? maybe she is exactly who she wants to be and maybe even if she had worked she would still be over involved in your life. That is something I have heard in my own family and I think it is very sad.
    “It is a rare person that can judge the faults of another without putting their own thumb on the scale”–anonymous

  257. Home Seller says:

    #256

    Because when you have the CHOICE to stay at home there is no grey area. Haven’t you been following?

  258. njpatient says:

    “Sales of new homes were down 22 percent from the same time last year.”

    I wonder how far down from the same time in 2005?

  259. Mike NJ says:

    Kim,

    Good work saving and fighting the good fight. Being close to family is priceless. Better to rent in a place you love than buy in a place you have no feelings for. Please god tell me you do not have your savings in the stock market though ;)

  260. Mike NJ says:

    Guys,

    This site is all about numbers and stats. Show me where it says kids with both parents who work are statistically more likely to be douchebags. I want to know.

    Is there such a study? If not then all we are killing each other over are PERSONAL opinions. And you know what they say about those, They are like assholes, everyone has one.

  261. lisoosh says:

    NJGal – thanks.
    You are really very lucky anyway in that you have a great profession that would allow you to work part-time or work from home if you decided to cut back a little.
    I worked in sales which literally requires that you sell your soul to the company. Plus all of our family lives abroad so we didn’t have the support system that you say you have. If I had parents in the area to take the kids on occasion I probably would have looked for a home based sales job. If nothing else to keep myself up to date and also to provide a break in order to be fresh for my kids.

    Home Seller – I AM a stay at home mom. Most of my friends are too. You really have nothing to say on the subject of any value.

  262. NJGal says:

    “isn’t it a little sad that in your response is your judgement on your mother? maybe she is exactly who she wants to be and maybe even if she had worked she would still be over involved in your life. That is something I have heard in my own family and I think it is very sad.”

    I’m not judging my mother – she and my father made that choice when I was born. She put my dad through law school, she worked for years until she had kids, as a teacher.

    But since you don’t know my mother, I can tell you that I know for a fact she would be happier now if she had at least a hobby, or something to occupy her time – she used to be involved in all the country club and PTA activities, but that ended when we went to college. Now she’s home with her dog and my sick father, who needs help, but not constant help – he’d love to have some time alone. If she had something to do, it would make both of them happier.

    Another thing many folks don’t contemplate – what being retired and home together will mean. It’s not always peachy and sunshine fun.

  263. twice shy says:

    In today’s workplace, it is very hard for a married couple to juggle two demanding careers without family life suffering. My wife commutes to NYC and is out of the house about 14 hrs./day. If you add in regular business travel, it is almost impossible to get by without an at-home spouse, especially if there are no family in the area as back-up.

  264. dreamtheaterr says:

    Home seller, next time keep the rubber on….. idiot.

  265. NJGal says:

    “This site is all about numbers and stats. Show me where it says kids with both parents who work are statistically more likely to be douchebags. I want to know.”

    Hahahaha! I am laughing as I sit at my desk. I love that word.

    “You are really very lucky anyway in that you have a great profession that would allow you to work part-time or work from home if you decided to cut back a little.”

    Lisoosh, they offered to have that discussion next year, and right now I get 12 weeks paid leave plus unused vacation (I have 6-8 weeks extra, although I haven’t decided how to use it, be it all leave or part-time for a bit). I am considering part-time, but I think I would rather go to an in-house job closer to home than do it at my firm – but we’ll see how I feel. Sales is definitely tougher to do that, so I know how tough that would have been.

  266. SG says:

    Well, I think most people in NJ talk about guys moving out of Manhattan/NYC and paying big money for a house in NJ. Again, all this is anecdotal, nothing that has been justified with real numbers.

    I think the reality is not as easy as it seems. Just looking realistically, even one’s combined 2 income is 200K, saving that 100K+ (after tax) for downpayment is not that easy. The cost of living in NYC is pretty high considering high Rents, Status symbol $300 jeans, eating out etc… I see many couples not being able to save that downpayment amount and being able to move to Burbs that easily.

    I would like some honest opinion from folks currently living in NYC, who are thinking of moving to NJ. What percentage of folks can actually afford to buy house in burbs right away?

  267. JLB says:

    #263 NJGAL: I’m just saying that putting the “fault” of her present state (whatever that may be) on the fact that she was a stay at home mom is a little hard to swallow BUT even if that was that cause it doesn’t mean all stay at home mothers will follow the same course. The reality of it is that everyone is different with different experiences and different outcomes!

  268. Home Seller says:

    #264

    Of course family life struggles. You wouldn’t believe how many couples I know who try to “make up” time w/their kids on the weekends because of the time missed by one spouse during the week….

    Sound familiar anyone….?

  269. lurkerA says:

    261 – that was awesome.

  270. twice shy says:

    I guess the financial markets didn’t like the new home sales numbers. What were they expecting? signs of recovery?

  271. PeaceNow says:

    A few facts here, and one observation.

    The average income in NYC (in 2005) is $40,899 (from Bureau of Economic Analysis)

    Women currently earn 77 cents for every dollar that a man does.

    One third of all households in the US are headed by single parents (who do not have the luxury of deciding who stays home with the kids).

    In all of this discussion about staying home versus working, no one at all has mentioned two of the biggest reasons most two-parent households require both to work: the cost of higher education and healthcare. Ah, but from what I’ve gathered from previous discussions, most of the people reading this site–whose population bears no relationship to the real world, fyi–have white-collar jobs with benefits, and plan to ship their kids off to other states so they can qualify for in-state tuition at state schools. Just sayin’.

  272. Lukas Bux says:

    I’m currently living in NYC and will be moving to NJ. I/we can afford to buy right away, but who would?

  273. NJGal says:

    JLB, it’s definitely different for everyone. But that was her outcome, and she was not alone in that lifestyle – and I have to say some people are very happy doing it. I just know she would be happier if there was a little something more.

  274. Home Seller says:

    #267

    Obv w/those incomes, they should be saving a ton of money if they choose to rent modestly and don’t spend beyond their means…

  275. dreamtheaterr says:

    For the record, I think my wife might return to work for a couple of hours while baby is in pre-school.

    Home seller, remember to keep the rubber on….. you’re a judgemental dodo.

  276. DE says:

    Here’s something to think about. My Aunt and Uncle had a child who died when she was about 2 1/2 years old from a non curable disease. My aunt was lucky enough to have been a stay at home mom.

    Imagine if she had worked, she would have missed out on pretty much her daughter’s whole life. Most of us believe we have all the time in the world when in reality life can sometimes be cut short, very short. As an example there was a fatal accident on the South Bound NJ Turnpike this morning I bet that person wasn’t planning on dying today.

  277. Zack says:

    GS is dropping like a rock. Last I checked it was at $220

  278. lurkerA says:

    277 – I would never choose to live my life with the assumption that I, or my loved ones, will die tomorrow.

    Also, I’m sorry to hear about your cousin, that sounds very sad.

  279. Home Seller says:

    #272 No denying that healthcare is expensive and the cost of college is rediculous.

    We are making sure our retirement is taken care of before the college fund is adequately funded.

    it is much easier to pay student loans than it is to fund your retirement.

  280. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    A Housing meltdown coming to hood near you.

    It’s payback time baby..

    hehehehehehehee

  281. fanshawe says:

    “it’s all about maximizing your chances of success. this is why the most desirable towns are those with low crime rates and good schools.”

    You mean desirable towns like Westfield where nannies wheel around the kids during the day while the stay at home moms are doing god knows what?

  282. Home Seller says:

    #276

    this coming from someone who justifies a limit to baby interaction…nice

    Come up w/some legitimate responses if you want to be taken seriously

  283. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    Gather up. Only young buyers with an attitude should listen.

    IT’S PAYBACK TIME BABY!

    YOU HAVE BEEN KICKED AROUND ABUSED BY THE FRISKIE EATING PANHANDLING BUNCH ALONG WITH THE GREEDY ENTITLEMENT GRUBBERS.

    MAKE’EM PAY.

    BOOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAA

    Bob

  284. pesche22 says:

    well well well, we have a problem.

    lets see dow -400 naz -80

    better have staying power,

    i think custer said that.

    gs , the buy of the year.

    along with a few others

  285. Stu says:

    Dow is about to drop +400pts.

  286. Kim says:

    #277 DE – valid point. I have a special needs brother and I can’t imagine what it would have been like if my mother had to work. This is why I have only one child… quit while I am ahead.

  287. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    Gonna pick some bones.

    bleed’em dry….

    The show & tellers are going to sell me their toys at clearnace prices. Just don’t know it yet.Gotta pay for extravagance.

    hehehhehehe

  288. Read My Lips: Price are going down down down says:

    BLEED’EM DRY……………

  289. pesche22 says:

    we got some bounces in here if you got a set

  290. Lukas Bux says:

    I just find Home Seller’s argument so bizarre…something like, Parent-Child interaction is of the utmost importance, that’s why I have my wife do it while I sit at work and type about how important it is.

    Where do you live dude, I don’t want to buy near you?

  291. Home Seller says:

    #291

    You must not have kids or have someone stay at home w/them…..

  292. dreamtheaterr says:

    Home seller, I wouldn’t care anything about what I said to you since you obviously were and are way off tangent to make the remarks you did. No need to fly off the handle…

  293. pesche22 says:

    here comes the next wave. hold on

  294. lurkerA says:

    291 – I think his argument is actually this: I don’t allow my wife to work, instead I force her to do my bidding while I am off at work, ignoring my responsibilities at home. It is her duty as a woman to raise my progeny and do as I say; therefore, all women must do the same otherwise they are selfish.

  295. pesche22 says:

    fund redemtions at 3 hold on

  296. pesche22 says:

    we could see -500 here on the dow

  297. Home Seller says:

    #293

    Not really flying off the handle buddy.

    I asked a straightforward question in an earlier post.

    The problem is its human nature for people to feel uncomfortable answering questions when they don’t have legitimate answers or they have to justify it by calling names or whatever.

  298. Home Seller says:

    #295

    Lurker- again trying to justify your selfishness by name calling?

    I hear crickets when I ask for a legitimate response from you.

  299. lisoosh says:

    Soooo…

    How about that stock market crumbling on fears about the mortgage market? Dollar is tanking. RE is out. What is left for investments? Gold? The mattress?

    NJGal – last point – I know what you mean about your mom. In my teens I fought with mine constantly because she was obsessed with my life, I begged her to get a job so that she would have another focus (and she said that I was insulting her as a mother). She finally did when my dad was laid off and what a difference. Instead of questioning me constantly she would come home and tell me about her day. It improved the quality of our relationship immensely.

  300. john says:

    Great it looks like the market is going down, Lets get those Equity Harvesting Liar Loan Bozos out of the market. Until I can pick things up where the rent covers the nut I won’t bite.

    By the way I am not against working women, if I could pimp my wife out for big bucks like your hubands do it might not be a bad deal.

  301. lurkerA says:

    299 – that’s because I was trying to ignore you. “was” unfortunately being the operative word in that sentence.

    my legitimate answer, which clearly you are too dense to comprehend because you are stuck on assuming that i am selfish, is that i feel that the answer to that question, for anyone really, is personal and that you shouldn’t judge someone else because you don’t know there situation and that their situation is likely different from yours.

    I am now no longer responding to you, which i wasnt in 295, I was responding to someone else. Feel free to consider me selfish.

  302. bi says:

    the stock is crumbling because we diverged from RE market, the main focus of this blog, to daycaring v.s. home-parenting. it should come back after we move back to our main topics.

  303. lurkerA says:

    yes, please, can we talk about the Dow?

  304. Home Seller says:

    HELLO PEOPLE, THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT CRASHING!

    a 2-3% drop is NOTHING if you are invested for the long term.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#chart3:symbol=^gspc;range=5y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;logscale=off;source=undefined

  305. RentinginNJ says:

    Stu, a 3% blip is not a crash. If you look at it in the context of the past one-month, we’re marginally below break-even. Not too shabby….

    What I find more interesting is the reason for today’s little excursion into the red. Lenders becoming more risk adverse, due to mounting subprime losses and home sales came in under expectations.

    Not many months ago, weak home sales would have caused a rally in the markets, as investors saw the weak housing market as largely contained, but hoped weak sales would lead to a rate cut. Now there is a growing realization that housing’s problems are not contained.

    Dow down 410

  306. Zack says:

    yeah, i know! what’s up with this home parenting crap. lets talk about money,real estate etc

  307. Richard says:

    almost time to buy folks!

  308. bergenbuyer says:

    From Market Watch:

    The federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade now sees a 96% chance of a rate cut by Dec. 31, up from about 47%.

  309. Stu says:

    Make that 3-4%.

    Praise the lord that have of my position is earning 5.25% over at the Apple Bank of New York ;)

  310. NJGal says:

    Lurker, if you’re a selfish evil thing, well, I’ll join you proudly – I’m sure you’d be more fun at a BBQ than that pompous windbag Home Seller.

  311. JLB says:

    ouch! the market will close more than 500 down, but how much more?

  312. lurkerA says:

    311 – Well, it’s very selfish of you to say that, so thank you ;)

  313. pesche22 says:

    yes its only the largest percent loss since
    03,other than that , no problem

    will this effect housing?

  314. Richard says:

    >>The overwhelming majority of parents make the decision based on their personal situation and circumstances. Painting every working mom as selfish is absolutely ridiculous.

    it’s clear there’s plenty of selfishness going on here. talk to prior generations in particular those who’ve been through the depression or fought in a major war and they’d laugh in your face at your feeble excuses for leaving your kids to be raised by someone else. times change that’s for sure.

  315. bi says:

    10 yr is 4.78%, moving to my target 4.5% by year-end. Somebody was laughing at me when i said Fed had no choice but cutting rate in the next meeting. A lot of bears here still doubt my claim that some desirable NJ towns will up 10% next year. but we will see…

    > The federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade now sees a 96% chance of a rate cut by Dec. 31, up from about 47%.

  316. ac says:

    The risk aversion nonsense has been going on for too long. There was definitely something wrong when the cheerleaders were going on and on about “rational exuberance” a few weeks ago.

  317. Richard says:

    >>I just know she would be happier if there was a little something more.

    it’s called compromise. everyone has to deal with it. only the uber rich don’t have to.

  318. Richard says:

    >>You mean desirable towns like Westfield where nannies wheel around the kids during the day while the stay at home moms are doing god knows what?

    nice for you to display your ignorance to the board.

  319. ac says:

    Sorry I meant the new paradigm of risk nonsense.

  320. Kim says:

    Richard #315

    I hate to lower myself to respond to you, but here I go….

    My father’s parents lived through the depression. His mother’s father died when she was 15 and her mother had to go back to work to support 6 kids – and she was pregnant with one when he passed away. My grandmother worked when her husband was in Europe during WW2 and continued to do so upon his return so he could concentrate on starting his business (which is successful to this day).

    Your point?

  321. ADA says:

    and just what other industry in NY has seen explosive growth in both numbers of employees and incomes.

    Law firm salaries.

  322. njrebear says:

    PPT at work at 13420.

  323. pesche22 says:

    that is correct ppt is in the house.

    paulson just off bloomberg,,,

    rally hats on

  324. ADA says:

    the name calling on this site is seriously starting to detract from the quality of the posts.

  325. NJGal says:

    Yeah, Kim, my family was the same- both sets of grandparents worked. One set to support a family of 12, the other to support just two.
    Oh, and later on it was my grandmother (the mother of 12) who worked when my grandpa got sick and couldn’t.

    And my great-grandparents, at least on my mother’s side, each worked several jobs during the depression. Funny that at least one of those jobs was so that my grandmother, their youngest, had “more” than they were able to give the older ones – toys and riding lessons. But remember, people were SO not materialistic at all back then.

    But what would we know? Didn’t you know “back then” they all would have scoffed at you and I for working?

  326. pesche22 says:

    watch goldman lead the way

  327. RentinginNJ says:

    yes its only the largest percent loss since
    03,other than that , no problem

    will this effect housing?

    Depends. Is this just a bad day on Wall Street, which will be dismissed in a few days as a quirk? Or, is this a part of a fundamental shift in the perception and valuation of risk tied to lending?

  328. BC Bob says:

    “10 yr is 4.78%, moving to my target 4.5% by year-end. Somebody was laughing at me when i said Fed had no choice but cutting rate in the next meeting.”

    Still laughing. The market controls the 10 year, not the fed.

  329. BC Bob says:

    The lights are going on at that mysterious trading office in the Caribbean.

  330. john says:

    Re: What does this have to do with the price of tea in China?

    My Father died when I was young and had his own business and left my mother with nothing. Not a penny heavily in debt with four young children to support and as an immigrant from europe who grew up depression era had an eight grade education. My Grandfather died when he was 40 and left my Grandmother with 5 young kids to raise on her own. My mother and Grandmother never remarried and re-entered the workforce and worked night and day at menial jobs to support their children.

    You are comparing a rich NJ lady who is working and throwing her kids in daycare so she can afford a new Escalade over a base model Chevy trailblazer and afford European Vacations over the Jersey shore to these women. That is insult to your dead grandparents, your dead granparents were part of the greatest generation ever and your need to work to buy Lattes and drink bottled water over caring for your children would be offensive to them.

    Kim Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
    Richard #315

    I hate to lower myself to respond to you, but here I go….

    My father’s parents lived through the depression. His mother’s father died when she was 15 and her mother had to go back to work to support 6 kids – and she was pregnant with one when he passed away. My grandmother worked when her husband was in Europe during WW2 and continued to do so upon his return so he could concentrate on starting his business (which is successful to this day).

    Your point?

  331. bi says:

    the problem is that this Fed and previous Fed are very market friendly and not as ignorant as some hard-core bears here

  332. Richie says:

    the sky is falling!!!

    sell!! sell stocks now!! all of them!! its crashing!!

    but it’s never been a better time to buy a house, there are plenty of great buys out there and the mortgage rates are at historical lowes. So on your way home from work, stop by a realtor and ask to see some local homes for sale!

  333. Kim says:

    njgal #326 – I’m still disgusted that I even responded to Richard’s post. I never take him seriously, especially after he said he lived in a “fluent” neigborhood a few weeks back.

  334. Richard says:

    >>I hate to lower myself to respond to you, but here I go….

    lower? since when is disagreement reasons for personal attacks? grow up.

  335. Richard says:

    john in re #331, well said. these people just don’t get it hence the personal attacks.

  336. NJGal says:

    “I never take him seriously, especially after he said he lived in a “fluent” neigborhood a few weeks back.”

    Ha!

    I’ve always wanted to live in a fluent town myself.

  337. NJGal says:

    “these people just don’t get it hence the personal attacks.”

    Include yourself in that, since you’re the king of them.

  338. Richard says:

    so now living in a nice neighborhood is reason for scorn. the new lows just keep coming.

  339. lurkerA says:

    that is too funny.

  340. NJGal says:

    Hey Richard, I live in a nice neighborhood (I would even say more “fluent” than Westfield). It’s not that – it’s the attitude of people like you who somehow think you’re better than other people because you live there.

  341. Clotpoll says:

    Seneca (175)-

    Sheriff Sales are only conducted for foreclosures. A forced partition sale is simply a sale of a divided (or divisible) interest in a whole property.

  342. Richard says:

    >>it’s the attitude of people like you who somehow think you’re better than other people because you live there.

    you don’t know me and you don’t know jack so stop flaunting your ignorance.

  343. Kim says:

    Richard #339 – No scorn here, I live in a nice neighborhood just like you do.

  344. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Financial crisis just one ‘Bear-like’ event away: Economist

    A global financial shock is just one “Bear-like” event away, economist Mark Zandi warned Thursday, giving it a one-in-five chance. In the current “high level of angst” following the collapse of two Bear Stearns funds, the uncertainty caused by another hedge-fund failure could cause investors to freeze, he said. Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com, said he expects significant declines in home sales and prices in coming months to further erode mortgage credit quality. About half of the structured securities owned by hedge funds are in the riskiest tranches of complicated derivatives based on the subprime mortgages that are going sour quickly, he said. If there is a global financial crisis, he said he expected the Federal Reserve would ease, but questioned how effective it would be in restoring confidence in the U.S. financial system.

  345. James Bednar says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Paulson says risk is being repriced; urges ‘discipline’

    Lenders are getting a “wake-up call” about pricing risk, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a televised interview Thursday, as U.S. stock markets plunged amid fears about shaky credit markets and the housing sector. Paulson said he wants to see more “discipline” on the part of borrowers and lenders. Meanwhile, Paulson said, the ongoing shakeout in the subprime lending market is going to be “largely contained” and doesn’t seem to pose a threat to the overall economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 400 points Thursday afternoon in its worst one-day drop of the year, rebounding later. Paulson spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

  346. Everything's 'boken says:

    The intense part of child raising only lasts a few years. Part of a parent’s respnsibility to their children is to not creae a situation where the loss of the primary breadwinner’s income puts them at risk.

    With the high percentage of marriages that do not last, the liklihood is high that a woman completely out of the workforce during those years will face great difficulty in re-entering it. The Feminine Mistake goes into detail about this and is very worthwhile read.

    That said, my wife stayed home during our daughter’s early childhood, supplementing our income with crafts, a beginner dancing school, and later a lunch only restaurant.

  347. NJGal says:

    “you don’t know me and you don’t know jack so stop flaunting your ignorance.”

    All I know is the comments you’ve made on here, which are full of personal attacks and snobbery about the neighborhood you live in. So if you want to be known by other than your comments, stop making the comments you make. Clearly I’m not the only one here who thinks that of you.

    You just love that you used the word “flaunting” didn’t you?

  348. Clotpoll says:

    New Investor (184)-

    No, you would not be crazy to tap that equity…assuming that you are not violating Rule #1 and Rule #2.

    I’d also suggest making a more substantial DP, thereby pumping your cash-on-cash return. Still, the rules apply: that cash-on-cash return had better be damned good.

    And, don’t forget to factor in vacancy and the cost of borrowing against equity.

  349. dreamtheaterr says:

    Today’s comments have been all over the place. Back to RE for a bit. Today’s market action has finally brought into perspective that the housing market’s fundamental weaknesses are for real and in your face. It’s no longer contained; Subprime/Alt A’s tentacles have spread. The increased spreads in junk bonds has spilled over into bank loan market, LBO and PE folks no longer have a free put going forward. The fear of shorting equities because of a buyout seems to have dissipated.

    Credit is going to cost more as people become more risk averse and expect to be compensated more. Expect a gradual return to the norm of a colonoscopy when applying for a mortgage with stricter underwriting standards.

  350. Zack says:

    Guys we have a global financial crisis brewing here and you guys are bickering over stay at home moms? whats the matter with you.

  351. BC Bob says:

    “Fed are very market friendly and not as ignorant as some hard-core bears here”

    bi,

    There are hard core RE bears that believe the fed will push the button, when required. Unfortunately, a cut will not help the broad RE market. That said, prime borrowers with a dp will score. Sellers? Get in line and try to escape thru the small opening.

  352. James Bednar says:

    Guys we have a global financial crisis brewing here and you guys are bickering over stay at home moms? whats the matter with you.

    Family trumps markets, every time.

    jb

  353. lisoosh says:

    “John:
    You are comparing a rich NJ lady who is working and throwing her kids in daycare so she can afford a new Escalade over a base model Chevy trailblazer and afford European Vacations over the Jersey shore to these women. That is insult to your dead grandparents, your dead granparents were part of the greatest generation ever and your need to work to buy Lattes and drink bottled water over caring for your children would be offensive to them.”

    Quite the stereotype you’ve got going there.

    OK, so here’s a question. How many of the dads on this board would be willing to take a lower paying job closer to home with very short hours and move to a cheap house in East Orange in order to spend more quality time with their children? Kids need their dads too. It’s all about sacrifice and compromise, no?

  354. Clotpoll says:

    New (208)-

    Yes. My advice & time are free. However, I don’t work with people I meet here. If you want to take the plunge, you’ll need to find another agent.

  355. Richard says:

    >>full of personal attacks and snobbery about the neighborhood you live in

    exaggeration just diminishes your credibility so please save it. i rarely resort to personal attacks and it’s only in response to someone who repeatedly attacks me without equivocation.

  356. James Bednar says:

    An RE bull arguing for rate cuts? Isn’t that a catch-22?

    Given the current inflationary environment, if the Fed is cutting rates, it’s going to be because we’re in a recession. I’m not sure about you, but a recession would be the death knell for real estate right now.

    The Fed has no mandate for maintaining a positive sloping yield curve, despite what you may think. They will not cut rates to appease the long end.

    jb

  357. njpatient says:

    Dow all the way back to -285. This indicates the market has bottomed. Or is bottoming. Or whatever.

    Hey – let’s talk a little real estate.

  358. njpatient says:

    nevermind

  359. Clotpoll says:

    BC-

    Carry unwinding like a gorilla stretching out a Slinky.

  360. NJGal says:

    Good one Lisoosh.

    I actually think there are men who would do that (I personally know of one stay at home dad who quit his job and the wife works b/c she has a kick-a– job and career in publishing).

    John, however, seems to dislike women. He may not be so inclined to allow his wife to top him like that.

    And Richard, whatever. You can say what you like but perhaps a little self-awareness would help.

  361. Jill says:

    Whee! Pass me the popcorn! And here I’ve spent my life with people telling ME that I’M selfish because I never WANTED kids.

    Why do people feel they have to judge others who make different choices? The fact of the matter is that there are no hard and fast rules about whether kids raised with a stay-at-home mom are better off. With a mom like mine, who was as toxic as a Secaucus waste dump, I probably would be dead by now by my own hand if she’d stayed home.

    The other very real factor that has to be taken into account is divorce. Especially in high-income families, where life in general is about trophies, what do you think happens to women who opt out of the workplace after they start showing signs of aging (and it happens to all of us) and their husbands trade them in on a new, younger, trophy wife? If they’ve been out of the workplace, they are utterly screwed. The workplace is notoriously unkind to older women under the best of circumstances, let alone to women without recent experience. And don’t talk about alimony — open-ended alimony is a thing of the past. People I know who have gone through divorces have gotten at most a year — and then they have to find work, even if they’ve never worked before.

    So while staying at home may be the optimal decision, working may be the most pragmatic one. Either way, it’s for each family to decide, and it’s none of our business what choice anyone makes.

  362. RentinginNJ says:

    Report: Insurance costs $58B for state, $11B for municipalities

    New Jersey taxpayers have promised health insurance packages worth almost $69 billion to current and future public retirees, a total that includes $11 billion in municipal costs and $58 billion to be paid by the state.

    The total cost of the insurance benefits, calculated for the first time to comply with new government accounting standards, were presented to the State Health Benefits Commission today.

    The tally includes the lifetime cost of retirement insurance coverage already earned by 522,354 working and retired school teachers and government employees.

    According to the report, the state and local governments would have to pay $3.7 billion into the insurance system this year – and almost $6 billion a year by 2016 – to start whittling down the $69 billion deficit.

    Without advance funding, annual insurance premiums for the retirees will soar from $1.2 billion in the budget year that ended June 30 to $3.5 billion by 2015, the report, by Aon Consulting of Somerset, says.

    Gov. Jon Corzine calls the cost “a pretty heavy body blow.”

  363. Richard says:

    >>Guys we have a global financial crisis brewing here

    why because we have some knee jerk reactions happening this week? the major indices were a little ahead of themselves and are realigning big deal. the dow is still up 8% ytd taking into account a 350 pt loss today. take advantage of chaos it’s near time to buy peeps.

  364. Kim says:

    #354 – “OK, so here’s a question. How many of the dads on this board would be willing to take a lower paying job closer to home with very short hours and move to a cheap house in East Orange in order to spend more quality time with their children? Kids need their dads too. It’s all about sacrifice and compromise, no?”

    Even though my husband doesn’t make a lot of money, he does have more time at home with our son than many other dads we know.

    #351 – “Guys we have a global financial crisis brewing here and you guys are bickering over stay at home moms? whats the matter with you.”

    I agree. I’m done with this argument.

  365. njpatient says:

    #354 lisoosh

    I’m guessing nobody is going to be raising their hands.

  366. njpatient says:

    #364 Richard

    Let us know when it IS time to buy, and what you’re buying.
    Thanks.

  367. Home Seller says:

    #354

    You make an excellent point. One of the few we’ve heard here on the subject.

    Commuting times for employment definitely should be thrown into the mix of this discussion. I am fortunate since I work in outside sales and have the luxury of tailoring my schedule to be home more than I should…:)

    I would abhor commuting 1 1/2 – 2 hrs each way to a job just because it paid in the 6 figures. I think losing that time is extremely detrimental to your relationship w/the children.

  368. Lukas Bux says:

    Home Seller (292)…I have two boys and I am at home with them right now…and every day for the last 3 years. That is why I think you should shut your pie hole. You sound like a doofus to anyone who actually stays at home and does the parent child interacting, oh…and the work that goes along with it.

  369. BC Bob says:

    “Carry unwinding like a gorilla stretching out a Slinky.”

    Clot,

    Picture Mutumbo waving his finger to all the retail investors in Japan, chasing yield elsewhere. Also,all the hedgies loaded up,and levered, on free $. Today may just be a dress rehearsal.

  370. Clotpoll says:

    Kim (334)-

    I think he meant “effluent” (LOL!).

  371. Everything's 'boken says:

    It seems to me that the income implications of family structure are as germane to New Jersey realestate as a correction in the stock market.

  372. Mike NJ says:

    Apple is on a roll right now. I might just go out and buy an iPhone.

    The interaction between the real estate market and the stock market is an interesting one. I can guarantee people saving for a house have a portion (hopefully small if looking to move soon) in the market. This correction (if it continues) may take a bite out of those down payment funds.

  373. dreamtheaterr says:

    I raise my hand. Traded my job in Manhattan for a shorter Jersey commute. It gives me 2 extra hours with baby every evening, and allows wife to take a break after her hard day’s work. Being a stay-at-home isn’t easy.

  374. Robert says:

    There is nothing wrong if both parents work. If both parents in Alpine households work, then there is nothing wrong if we do it. What, you think your better than someone living in an Alpine mansion?

  375. BC Bob says:

    Be careful when private equity invites you to join the party. Did they explain how to exit, if required.

  376. Robert says:

    “Traded my job in Manhattan for a shorter Jersey commute.”

    How much of a pay cut did you take after you switched jobs?

  377. REBear says:

    (373)
    “This correction (if it continues) may take a bite out of those down payment funds.”

    Every penny is locked up in CD and MM accounts.

  378. Robert says:

    “The latest housing numbers were 3 times worse than expected. The home builders are all reporting significantly worse results than projected and some are even taking land writeoffs. My guess is that it is ‘panic’ time. Cash is king and probably will be until we bottom in a year or two.

    Just my 2 cents.”

    Keep your 2 cents. Most homes out there are existing ones so the numbers for existing homes are the ones that matter the most. According to NAR, inventory for existing homes is down 4.4% while prices are up .3%.

  379. Clotpoll says:

    Equity harvesters should be feeling it right about now.

    Purchase-on-margin of stocks has been running at record highs in recent months.

    The only difference between the margin call to Bear and the one to Joe6P is the tone of voice in which it’s delivered.

  380. Mike NJ says:

    Good man REBear. I lost a bunch a couple of months before we purchased on a speculative call option. I will never do that again. The wife reminds me of it once a week.

  381. Mike NJ says:

    Or woman, did not mean to be sexist.

  382. REBear says:

    Robert (379),
    If inventory is down and prices increasing, then why are you ready for a 19K price cut? Is your POS that hard to sell?

  383. RentinginNJ says:

    The federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade now sees a 96% chance of a rate cut by Dec. 31, up from about 47%.

    How could you cut rates with the shape the dollar is in? Get out your wheelbarrows.

  384. Kim says:

    Clot #371 – HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!! I spit my drink out laughing after I read that!

  385. Home Seller says:

    #373

    God man, we are NOWHERE near a correction! do we have to overblow everything???

    A correction is a 10-15% drop from peak highs….

  386. Clotpoll says:

    Kim (385)-

    Guaranteed he’s Googling “effluent” now.

  387. Clotpoll says:

    Gonna pick me up some stock toys…

  388. Home Seller says:

    #374

    Good for you. You did the right thing.

  389. Clotpoll says:

    sick, moaning half-yell…

  390. Richard says:

    >>Let us know when it IS time to buy, and what you’re buying.

    i’m looking at a few debt issues with NAV discounts with little exposure to subprime like BGY. it pays about 10% yield and has a NAV in the mid $19 range. i’ll probably hold out a bit longer than buy some.

    i also mentioned RSF but that has more high risk debt exposure hence the near 15% yield. probably pick some of this up today or tomorrow it’s at the right price point for my purposes.

    http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/global.asp?MFID=177978
    http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/spec.asp?MFID=128103

  391. Robert says:

    “If inventory is down and prices increasing, then why are you ready for a 19K price cut? Is your POS that hard to sell?”

    I’m not dropping my asking price. I don’t know what you are talking about.

  392. dreamtheaterr says:

    #377
    “How much of a pay cut did you take after you switched jobs?”

    Robert, funnily enough I got an increase. But I didn’t work in Wall St so I could be the exception. The extra 2 hours every day trumps everything else.

  393. Richard says:

    goldman, apple and google. everyone should own some of these. about as no brainer as you can get in this market.

  394. njpatient says:

    “According to NAR, inventory for existing homes is down 4.4% while prices are up .3%.”

    Numbers reflect the reality in April, not now, and don’t take into account “incentives”. In reality, prices were likely down 2-3%

  395. njpatient says:

    OK – Mark it down.
    At COB on 7/26/07, Richard recommends buying Apple, Google and Goldman.

  396. Richard says:

    >>At COB on 7/26/07, Richard recommends buying Apple, Google and Goldman.

    i bought goldman 5 years ago, google in feb ’06 and apple in dec ’04. if i were buying today i’d stretch it out to take out some fluctuations.

  397. njpatient says:

    #396 Richard
    You said it was about time to buy. Not five years ago, but today.
    I asked you what to buy. You said Apple, Google and Goldman. Are you telling me you’re not so sure after all?

  398. bi says:

    396#?
    what to buy? homebuilders TOL, PHM, CTX, BYL, HOV, … better one: XHB, best: Richard’s house

  399. Robert says:

    “and don’t take into account “incentives”. In reality, prices were likely down 2-3%”

    Wrong again. Incentives are mainly for new construction, not existing homes. I do not know of a single seller offering incentives, excpet, maybe used furniture!

    And I have been doing some research on “incentives” and many of thema are complete cons. They are mainly giving you features that were always standard as “incentives.” One developer is giving AC and sod as incentives. The last time I checked, there were standard features! I would say that over 50% of the current incentives being offered are scams.

  400. REBear says:

    Bird brain (Donald/Robert)(391)

    I’m not dropping my asking price. I don’t know what you are talking about.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/07/24/the-crisis#comment-110536

    Again, why is your POS not selling?

  401. AntiTrump says:

    REMINDER FOR RICHARD TO TAKE HIS MEDICINES.

  402. njpatient says:

    #399
    You contradict yourself, Duck:

    “Wrong again. Incentives are mainly for new construction, not existing homes.”
    contradicts:
    “One developer is giving AC and sod as incentives. The last time I checked, there were standard features!”

    Further, if someone sells you a home with no CAC for $775,000 but with a credit of $20k for installation of CAC (as I saw recently), then the selling price is really $755,000, and the fact that you think CAC is a standard feature is completely irrelevant.

  403. REBear says:

    Donald / Robert (391)

    I’m not dropping my asking price. I don’t know what you are talking about.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2007/07/24/the-crisis#comment-110536

    Again, why is your POS not selling?

  404. d2b says:

    Wife goes back to work in the fall. Kid is in school now. Last step was her over-involvement in his school. We’ve had arguements because she’s there as much as he is.

    Final step was when she and her PTA friends put together a yearbook…for the FIRST grade.

  405. REBear says:

    JB,
    My comment is awaiting moderation.

  406. chicagofinance says:

    bi Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 3:14 pm
    the problem is that this Fed and previous Fed are very market friendly and not as ignorant as some hard-core bears here

    bi: pure unadulterated silliness

  407. d2b says:

    Questions:

    What online brokerage firms do people use? Why?

    Are there any programs that make computer typing more like tying on the Blackberry. It’s a sign of the times, but I always have to go back and add periods and capitalize.

  408. REBear says:

    Trading curbs, used to slow down the market in the event of a big move, were imposed by the New York Stock Exchange late this morning.

    http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/26/markets/markets_130/index.htm?postversion=2007072615

  409. Richard says:

    >>You said it was about time to buy. Not five years ago, but today.

    yes but not those 3 stocks en masse today. i gave a couple of other recommendations but it’s awaiting moderation.

  410. Robert says:

    ALL of the new homes I saw in 2004-2005 had CAC. It did not matter if it was a townhosue, duplex, or McMansion. If you saw new homes without AC, that is surprising. Where were you loking for hosues? Amish Country? Offering CAC as an incentive is a con game.

    The same is true for wood floors. Today, and during the height of the market, wood floors were standard in new all new homes. But, yet, many builders are offering wood flors as “incentives” today. I don’t know about where you live, but buyers here are not going to pay top dollar for carpet.

  411. Richard says:

    >>best: Richard’s house

    i’m not selling sorry.

  412. Richard says:

    while my comment on recommendations is sitting in moderation, i’ll give you the summary. check out BGY and RSF. about time to buy both of them. i might wait for another leg down but buying now wouldn’t be a bad call.

  413. Robert says:

    njpatient,

    I heard that Honda is now offering seats as an incentive. Ford is offering headlights while Chevy is offering steering wheels. I guess now is the best time to buy a new car!

  414. john says:

    I think a closed end real estate focused fund that trade trades deep to NAV is the way to play, might be a bounce in morning and if not you can cash the dividend at 15% and sell by year end and take the tax write off.

    Hey I love women I took a regular 9-5 job last year with no travel so I could help my wife every morning and every evening and have flex time to go to all my kids shows and events. But why would I take a pay cut to do that? just part of the package, 100K raise and less hours.

  415. njpatient says:

    #411
    Duck
    Put simply, that’s an idiotic post. Existing homes are very often sold without CAC. Cars are never sold without headlights.
    I’ll take the charitable interpretation of your post: that you were kidding.

  416. njpatient says:

    OK – mark it down
    At COB on 7/26/07 Richard recommends buying BGY and RSF.
    Unless he changes his mind. Again.

  417. BC Bob says:

    “According to NAR”

    Quack,

    And according to the NAR

    1)There is no bubble
    2)It’s just a correction
    3)Spring should bring out pent up demand
    4)We feel the bottom is in
    5)We are dancing along the bottom
    6)The ecomomy and stock market are flying
    7)Oh s*it, there goes Lereah.

    I would rather sit in on one of McGreevey’s ethics classes at Kean or listen to Dr. Kevorkian give a speech on health maintenance than listen to the pom-pom waving NAR.

  418. john says:

    What global financial crisis, this is just a good opportunity to trim some dead wood and offer LTIC to the peformers, in order to set up a good 2008 and prevent a greater fall.

  419. Richard says:

    >>Unless he changes his mind. Again.

    you’re not making any sense.

  420. lisoosh says:

    412 – Which just goes to prove the point, where is the sacrifice?
    Seems plenty are willing to insist on sacrifices but their own seem to amount to little – the same career path they would have followed without kids, the same house, the same town. The stay-at-home wife and tow-headed tots as much a status symbol as the top school district and the high horsepower car.

    That’s fine, if someone is lucky enough to have a life and income that fits in kids without disruption, they should count their blessings. The vast majority aren’t so fortunate.

    And before yaking on about how anyone can have a high income if they want it – the economy couldn’t function without different income levels. You NEED there to be people working for a lot less in all those little crappy jobs that make your life easier and more luxurious and which provide the value in your high income.

  421. Robert says:

    “Existing homes are very often sold without CAC.”

    That’s correct. But new homes are not and the new homes are the ones offering CAC as “incentives.” Retrofitting an older home with CAC can be very expensive and I do not know of a single seller offering this as an incentive. Most realtors I have spoken to told me that it is better to price the hous lower and offer no incentives. If someone is offering incentives, you are paying for them! Without the incentives, the price would be lower!

    Even in this market, there is no such thing as a free lunch. I can offer $30,000 granite counters as an incentive and price the house at $899k or offer no incentives and price the house at $869k. Turst me, you are paying for incentives!

  422. REBear says:

    Limited completes staff cutbacks
    Retailer cuts 370 in New York, elsewhere in plan to save $100 million

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/limited-lays-off-370-workers/story.aspx?guid=%7B5F0B6657%2D7DE4%2D4F30%2D8DC9%2DE9D94AAE047E%7D&dist=hplatest

  423. New Investor says:

    Clotpoll:

    Thanks for the offer. Unbiased advice is exactly what I’m looking for. I’m already working with an agent, so I wouldn’t want to violate that relationship. My email is vazqued2@yahoo.com. Send me an email there and I’ll describe 2 local opportunities that I’m debating pulling the trigger on.

  424. Robert says:

    BC Bob,

    Is Pres. Bush going to give classes on Strategic Planning at Harvard when he leaves office? Sign me up if he is!

  425. The other doyle says:

    lisoosh (354),

    I was a practicing physician, now a school teacher. I walk to work.

    My kids are a bit older now, so maybe not a fair statement. My wife likes having me around more.

    We live on the south side of Bloomfield. My kids went to the high school here, and did well. I now teach there.

  426. chicagofinance says:

    Richard Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
    goldman, apple and google. everyone should own some of these. about as no brainer as you can get in this market.

    Reech: please stop with the stock picks

  427. cridecoeur says:

    dreamtheatre:

    wow, i was thinking of doing the exact same thing. 7 yrs commuting into nyc, putting in at least 15hours a week… come home, eat and sleep.

    i guess you may have taken a paycut for the short commute, but how much more destressed do you feel?

    though, at the moment, im kind of worried about the job market now..

    cri

  428. UnRealtor says:

    #422, he should. As I watched the smoldering ruins of the World Trade Center, it was inconceivable that there would be no other attacks for the next 7 years.

  429. BC Bob says:

    “Is Pres. Bush going to give classes on Strategic Planning at Harvard when he leaves office? Sign me up if he is!”

    Donald,

    Save the tuition dollars. I can help you for $1.99.

    http://www.alibris.com/search/detail.cfm?S=R&bid=9163320861&cm_mmc=shopcompare-_-base-_-isbn-_-na

  430. 3b says:

    #390 Clot: Can we move Sept 1 to Aug 1?

  431. 3b says:

    #379 Robbie: lets see the revisions netx month 9there are always revisions), and lets see what August brings. Watch, listen, and, learn grasshopper.

  432. 3b says:

    #373 Mike Why would it not continue? Its finally really starting to roll.

  433. HEHEHE says:

    Google, that made me chuckle

  434. REBear says:

    Robert,
    Post 401 is for you.

  435. 3b says:

    #332 bi: (Grasshopper) The Fed’s job is not to be market friendly (whatever that means) The Fed will push the button (lower rates) when it is convinced that much of the excess is squeezed out of the market/markets.

    The Fed will return to their previous role of cleaning up after bubbles.

    All of the so called experts were calling for rate cuts last year and all of this year, did not happen,a nd it will not.

    I have been right, they have been wrong. The Fed IMHO knows housing in addition to the credit markets in general were out of control,and this has to happen in order to move forward, and restore some semblance of creditability and normalcy to the market.

    On a side note my Fed calls have been right for years, with the exception of the Greenspan frenzy when I wrongly thought he would increase by 50bp or more each time, rather then the pathetic baby steps 25 bp, that he did.

    I bet he and Bernanke now wish that he tightened more agrressively, it would have cured a lot of ills we are now seeing.

    I still remember the days on the desk when right before the Fed annoucement at 2:15 when you could hear a pin drop, as everyvody held their breath wiaitng for the Fed’s decesion.

    This 25 bp crap, injured the Fed’s credibility, cause weeverybody knew, more of the same. Nobody paid attention to them any more.

    There will be no Fed easing this year,a s I have predicted since January of this year.

    Watch, lsiten, and,learn grasshopper.

  436. 3b says:

    #316 bi They have bbe wrong for almost 2 years. And if by chance they are right, it will not save housing, period.

  437. UnRealtor says:

    tt

  438. UnRealtor says:

    CNN.com main page, lead story, large font, full color photo of a man on the trading floor holding his head in anguish:

    Dow suffers 2nd worst day of 2007

    A tidal wave of worry about housing and credit markets swept over Wall Street on Thursday, sending key indexes tumbling. One director of stock trading said: “Sell first and find out later – that’s pretty much what happened today.”

    updated 5:44 p.m. EDT, Thu July 26, 2007

    http://www.cnn.com/

  439. 3b says:

    #215 KIM: Believe it or not, that 115K is very, good salary for northern NJ.

  440. 3b says:

    Soory Should be Kim #252

  441. HOUSE OF PAIN says:

    Stocks plunge; Dow down more than 310 By JOE BEL BRUNO, AP Business Writer
    18 minutes ago

    Wall Street suffered one of its worst losses of 2007 Thursday, leading a global stock market plunge as investors succumbed to months of worry about the mortgage and corporate lending markets. The Dow Jones industrials closed down more than 310 points after earlier skidding nearly 450.

    Investors who had been able for months to largely shrug off discomfort about subprime mortgage problems and a more difficult environment for corporate borrowing finally decided it was time to sell after the Commerce Department issued another disappointing home sales report.

    Feeding the plunge were concerns that higher corporate borrowing costs will curb the rapid pace of takeovers that had driven stocks higher this year. Investors also feared the sluggish environment for home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans would spur debt defaults and weigh on corporate earnings.

    While stocks plummeted, investors poured money into the safe haven of the bond market. The soaring price of Treasurys pulled yields lower, and the rate on the 10-year note plunged to 4.79 percent from late Wednesday’s 4.90 percent.

    “Worries that have been out there for the past couple of years are coming to a head right now,” said investment strategist Edward Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research Inc. “It’s show time.”

    Thursday’s trading was the latest and most extreme in a series of frenetic sessions over the past month — many also accompanied by triple-digit swings in the Dow — as investors sold on worries about the subprime fallout or bought on optimism that there wouldn’t be any widespread problems caused by mortgage failures. Many analysts have described the back-and-forth trading as overwrought and based more on gut emotion than careful consideration of market and economic fundamentals.

    That was the feeling again Thursday.

    “The rally in bonds at this point looks a little bit overdone,” said Tom Higgins, chief economist at Payden & Rygel Investment Management in Los Angeles. “If you’re going to park money temporarily then cash I think is the way to be but I think that we’re going to form a bottom. I think people are going to be legging it back into the market.”

    The Dow plunged 311.50 or 2.26 percent, to 13,473.57 after falling 449.77 in earlier trading. The close was its worst since the 416.02 it lost on Feb. 27, when a drop in the Shanghai stock market rattled world exchanges.

    Broader market indicators also slid. The Nasdaq composite index tumbled 48.83, or 1.84 percent, to 2,599.34, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 skidded 35.43, or 2.33 percent, to 1,482.66.

    The Russell 2000 index, which reflects the movement of small-company stocks, fell 21.02, or 2.59 percent, to 791.48.

    Before Thursday’s big drop, the Dow had been up 10.61 percent for the year — and that margin has now been cut to 8.11 percent. The S&P 500 was up 7.04 percent, and the market decline now puts it at a year-to-date gain of 4.54 percent; while the Nasdaq’s 9.64 percent increase has been cut to 7.62 percent.

    The declines triggered a global sell-off in stocks, causing minor losses in Europe to accelerate rapidly along with the Dow’s drop. In Europe, Britain’s FTSE 100 closed down 3.15 percent, Germany’s DAX index dropped 2.39 percent, and France’s CAC-40 fell 2.78 percent.

    Markets were closed in Asia before the rout got under way. Japan’s Nikkei stock average closed up 0.88 percent and the Shanghai stock market composite added 0.52 percent to an all-time high.

    Wall Street also found more immediate reasons to sell during the session — primarily the home sales figures from the Commerce Department, which further eroded confidence in the housing industry’s ability to rebound.

    The department reported that sales of new homes fell 6.6 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 834,000 units, more than triple what had been expected and the largest percentage drop since sales fell by 12.7 percent in January.

    This boosted anxiety after quarterly results from home builders including Pulte Homes Inc. and D.R. Horton Inc. were squeezed by a sluggish environment from home sales and continued defaults in subprime loans.

    “Wall Street continues to walk a wall of worry,” said Ryan Larson, a senior equity trader at Voyageur Asset Management. “The housing market continues to be a story, and nobody knows when it will rebound. But, the real concerns are about credit and oil pushing higher.”

    Also stunting stocks was the Commerce Department’s disappointing durable goods report. Though sales of big-ticket items increased by 1.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $217.07 billion, durable goods excluding transportation equipment had an unexpected drop.

    The Labor Department reported that jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 301,000 in the week ended July 21, slightly better than analysts’ expectations.

    Investors also reacted negatively as oil prices climbed to almost $77 per barrel during the session, stoking the market’s worries about inflation. However, crude pared gains in the afternoon when a barrel of light sweet crude fell 93 cents to $74.95.

    It all led to a frantic day for stock traders.

    “It has been pretty volatile as of late, but now fears about a credit crunch are spreading more than they have in the past — and that’s causing this drop,” said Matt Kelmon, portfolio manager of the Kelmoore Strategy Funds. “That’s hurting the financials, and now energy companies are joining the party because oil is so high. They make up a large part of the S&P 500.”

    Wall Street, now at the peak of second-quarter earnings season, has been extremely volatile lately. On Thursday, declining issues beat advancers by a 14 to 1 basis on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to a record 5.84 billion shares, up from 4.14 billion on Wednesday.

    Both NYSE Group Inc. and Nasdaq Stock Market Inc. reported that their electronic trading systems were functioning normally, and no problems had been reported.

    Ford Motor Co. rose 12 cents to $8.09 after it reported cost-cutting and a turnaround in its core automotive operations pushed its second-quarter to a profit. The company had posted seven quarters of losses as it grappled with sluggish sales and a major overhaul of its operations.

    The Nasdaq’s losses weren’t as steep as other major indexes during the session due to strength from Apple Inc., which surged $8.74, or 6.4 percent, to $146.00. The iPod and iPhone maker’s earnings easily surpassed Wall Street projections late Wednesday due to strong sales from its computer offerings.

    Home builders sank after several disappointing reports. D.R. Horton fell 32 cents to $17.16 after it posted a fiscal third-quarter loss on charges to write down the value of unsold inventory and deposits on land.

    Pulte fell 63 cents, or 3.1 percent, to $20.04 after it posted a second-quarter loss amid the struggling housing market.

  442. Robert says:

    “I guess the financial markets didn’t like the new home sales numbers. What were they expecting? signs of recovery?”

    There are signs of recovery. Prices are up and inventory is down. Not too bad…

  443. Hobokenite says:

    Saw this over on CR:

    From Bennet Sedacca

    12:51:58 PM

    The Real Deal
    Whenever I want some really good, really accurate market color I go to a friend of mine with 35 years of experience including 15 years as a head Treasury trader for two major ‘primary dealers’. So I just called him and got the following response about ‘structured product’. It ain’t pretty.

    ‘Massive loss of confidence among young traders that have never seen a lack of liquidity’
    ‘There aren’t enough seasoned, weathered traders to deal with this mess’
    ‘Traders don’t know how to deal with illiquity as they are used to a permanent bid and always tighter spreads’
    ‘Dealers are bidding 10 points back of normal because they already have too much inventory’
    ‘In many cases there is no market’
    ‘Inventories at the banks is huge and they will have to get marked to market next week causing many funds to go under’
    ‘We need one headline like ‘Buffett to buy Chrysler deal at X price’ to clean up market’
    He said he tried to sell $25,000,000 of an A rated CDO and his desk bid 75 even though they believed it was worth 90.

  444. Robert says:

    “#379 Robbie: lets see the revisions netx month 9there are always revisions), and lets see what August brings. Watch, listen, and, learn grasshopper.”

    No, you watch, listen, and learn. July and August home prices will be favorable because summer months is the prime selling season. That’s ok, keep sitting on the sidelines. For someone who likes to say he is better than everyone else, you sure don’t have that much money. You are looking at houses for $400,000? YIKES! Enjoy your dump while I live in my McMansion!

  445. Woodyusa says:

    Tonight’s NBC new says Condo Bust! Reminds me of the early 1990s. Looks like the TV media is on board now. We can expect months of only bad for the housing market. Flippers bankrupt, buyers suing to get out of their contracts, insulted sellers and allot of for sale signs. Just wait until unemployment rises.

    I am looking for a second home down the shore. Hopefully I can find the waterfront property I have always dreamed of and did not want to pay full boat for!

  446. njrebear says:

    Duck,

    401 is for you.

  447. Robert says:

    “401 is for you.”

    Again, I am NOT dropping my asking price. I am willing to sell for less than asking, but I am not willing to drop my asking price. You do know the difference, right?

  448. Robert says:

    There is no condo bust in NJ. The market for luxury condos on the Gold COast is the strongest market in NJ and the storngest market in the area, after Manhattan.

  449. Robert says:

    ” beg to differ, NYC is different and not representative of society because of its diversity.

    Most of America is NOT diverse. Most of America is still very white and homogeneous.”

    Here he go with the diversity again. Did you ever notice that when an area becomes “too diverse” all the white people start throwig up their for sale signs and flee from the neighborhood? You can’t have diversity. An area will always have a dominant ethnic group because the some groups will flee.

  450. syncmaster says:

    FWIW, from Hot Property:

    Where Will Housing Recover First? Would You Believe D.C.?

    Intriguing predictions from John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting:

    With so much doom and gloom in the market, we are going to focus on the positive this month. Here are our favorite markets. We are certain that there are great opportunities in almost every market in the country.

    Favorite First-to-Turn-Around Markets: Washington, D.C. Orange County (California), San Diego, and Northern and Central New Jersey will follow shortly thereafter. All are low-supply markets that have been down for a while and have good economies. All markets in the country will suffer from the coming surge in ARM resets though, so our bullishness on these markets is temperate.

    Source: http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/archives/2007/07/where_will_hous.html

  451. syncmaster says:

    There is no condo bust in NJ. The market for luxury condos on the Gold COast is the strongest market in NJ

    There is much more to NJ than the Gold Coast. The rest of it it may not matter to you, but I assure you, it still does exist.

  452. Robert says:

    Well, I do not care about the other parts of NJ. The Gold Coast is doing very well because it is not really NJ, it is actually an extension of Manhattan. People on the Gold Coast all work in Manhattan, they all care about being near the city, and they all care about having views of the city. They come to the GC for one main reason: They can’t afford Manhattan.

    In fact, that is who most developers on the GC market to. Pick up any NYC newspapaer and you will see TONS of ads for Gold Coast developments. I have today’s NY Post and there are some ads for Jersey City condo buildings in it.

  453. Robert says:

    Besides, I am not suprised tha the condo market outside of the GC is doing poorly. Why someone would buy a condo when they can buy a large house for the same price is byond me. On the Gold Coast, there are no houses so condos do not have competition from them. You have some nice townhouses, but they start at $2 million.

  454. njpatient says:

    #422 Duck
    “Without the incentives, the price would be lower!”
    That was exactly my point. Thank you for making it.
    And we were speaking of existing homes, not new homes (i.e., the point of the discussion was that incentives disguise the lower price of existing homes, and the miniscule rise in existing home prices is for that reason an illusion).
    You lost track of the thread.

  455. Rich In NNJ says:

    June Bergen County MLS Sales down 4% Y-O-Y and Under Contract down 3.5% Y-O-Y.

    This past June was the slowest since 1997.

    With 5 days left in July it is trending the same.

  456. njpatient says:

    #420 Richard
    “>>Unless he changes his mind. Again.

    you’re not making any sense.”

    I asked you what stocks to buy today. You said Apple, Google and Goldman. Then you backed off and said we should have bought five years ago. You changed your mind. Make sense??

  457. syncmaster says:

    I am not suprised tha the condo market outside of the GC is doing poorly. Why someone would buy a condo when they can buy a large house for the same price is byond me.

    Not too familiar with the RE market outside of the GC, are you?

  458. njrebear says:

    Duck brain(448),

    I am willing to sell for less than asking, but I am not willing to drop my asking price. You do know the difference, right?

    What difference does it make? You will end up losing money anyways.

    Again, if inventory is decreasing and prices are increasing, then how come you are unable to sell your POS??

  459. Robert says:

    “You lost track of the thread.”

    No I did not. Incentives are mainly offered for new homes. With existing homes, what you see is what you get. The only existing homes I see offering incentives are the high end ones: $2 million +

  460. Lukas Bux says:

    Robert,

    “The Gold Coast is doing very well because it is not really NJ, it is actually an extension of Manhattan.”

    Ain’t NO part of NJ that is an extension of Manhattan if you live in Manhattan. Haha! You’re a legend in your own mind.

  461. Robert says:

    The percentage of existing home sellers offering incentives is very small. Therefore, there is no mis-interpretation of the NAR statistics. I have yet to see an existing seller offering an incentive!

  462. Robert says:

    What I meant to say is that the Gold Coast is NYC’s unofficial 6th borough. There are a lot of people who would agree with this statement. There is even a Gold Coast website called “New York’s Sixth”

  463. Robert says:

    “Again, if inventory is decreasing and prices are increasing, then how come you are unable to sell your POS??”

    Because the number of homes being sold has gone down. Prices are up, inventory is down, and the number of sold homes is down too. Go figure! It’s like we are having a buyer’s and seller’s market all at the same time!

  464. chicagofinance says:

    this entire thread is a sack of garbage

    guan: thank you again for destroying this website

  465. syncmaster says:

    Who/what is guan?

  466. Robert says:

    chicago,

    your the one who destoryed this website, just like you destoryed threads on kannekt.

  467. Robert says:

    I am guan. As far as what a “guan” is, I have no idea!

  468. justbought says:

    Whew! What a day. The drop in equities is mild compared to the bloodbath in credit. Anybody looked at brokers CDS lately? If this goes on for a couple of months the higher end of the market will suffer

  469. Robert says:

    Just Googled it… A guan is a Chinese bird. Not sure why cf would call me a guan. That makes no sense!

  470. Pat says:

    I think somebody is getting teased with tossing bat guano.

    But I like ya, Duck. You know the meaning of persistence.


    The funny thing about garbage truck trains is you don’t want get behind them, but you need them to expel waste.

    Too bad all the North Jersey and NYC garbage goes past me on the way to PA dumps. Fun to watch them go by. All the North Jersey folks curse them out. But I know PA is making big bucks on the stuff.

  471. Eisbär says:

    i think that “guan” is short for “guano.” which, whether or not that is what chicagofinance meant, is still quite appropriate for Robert Troll’s posts.

  472. pesche22 says:

    asia opens down 450 , could be a long
    night.

    anyone sleep standing up

  473. t c m says:

    I’ve been both a working mom and stay at home.

    I quit a high paying job in 1992 to take care of my kids 4,1, and infant. It wasn’t easy and we had many financial ups and downs and stress.

    I worked part-time jobs when my little one went to 2nd grade, and now that my kids are in high school and and away at college, I would like to get back into the real workforce. The problem is that it is extremely difficult to get back into a serious job when you’ve taken time off to care for your kids. I’m even too embarrassed to tell you how low the salaries are on the offers I’ve gotten (in NJ).

    The choices I’ve made were not easy, nor were the outcomes all positive. There’s always some negatives in the mix.

    Having said that, I’m glad I quit. I once asked my son, after I quit, how he felt about daycare, and he said it was fine, but he would have rather been at home. I don’t buy the argument that it’s better for a child to be in daycare because because it’s more stimulating. Unless your really an awful mother (or father), I don’t think the child is better off being with someone else all day. Also, the immunities argument is silly. My kids got a lot of ear infections in daycare. The child I never sent to daycare never really got too sick in pre-school.

    I admit it, it was at times boring. Being at the playground sometimes felt like doing time. Yet, let’s face it, work is not always what it’s cracked up to be – you spend all this time with , well, strangers…….sort of.

    As I said, my kids are older now, and they have social lives – like normal teens. They don’t hang out all that much with my husband and myself. Gosh, I sound like such an old lady, but really, the time flys by and before you know it, they’re grown.

    So here I am, on the wrong side of 40, trying to start my career again. It’s not easy. When you get off the career track, it’s hard to get back on – that’s a reality, not to be taken lightly. To say a woman is selfish because she doesn’t want to take that risk is just plain wrong. However, to say that being a stay at home mom is worse for the kids because you give up financial security, or you risk becoming overly involved is laughable.

  474. Lukas Bux says:

    If I was a seller with a center hall colonial in Basking Ridge and surrounding areas holding on to the dream that I was still going to get 800K for it I’d be getting really sweaty right now. Market tanking, credit tightening, August fast approaching, home sales down down down.

    I feel for you…

  475. chicagofinance says:

    from achives:

    chicagofinance Says:
    July 15th, 2007 at 10:24 pm
    Reech: I am in a charitable mood. I wish to offer you an option. One of you or duck is going to be stuck with the moniker “bat guano” – “Guan” for short….I will give you the option of declining it and instead passing it off to duck. Your choice.

    SUBSEQUENTLY MASS IDIOCY ENSUED

    chicagofinance Says:
    July 15th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
    duck, by default you are Guan…..to quote John Huston “you did it the old fashioned way….you EEAAARNNED it”

  476. Lukas Bux says:

    That was John Houseman smart guy…not John Huston.

    Should have gone to a New York school.

  477. justbought says:

    I was following Westchester for a while too – on average flat prices, flat inventory, flat sales. If anybody is curious H1’07 stats just published

    http://www.wcbr.net/Library/stats/stats07/SR2nd07%20Final.pdf

  478. Robert says:

    testing

  479. Pat says:

    What I still scratch my head over is my stupidity at thinking most of the posters here were male.

    How could I have been so blind?

    Housing. Of course.

  480. Robert says:

    #475

    Who do you feel for? Who is selling a house in Basking Ridge?

  481. 3b says:

    #451 Low supply in north Jersey? Turn around? Its finally really just getting started, the downturn that is.

  482. Robert says:

    cf,

    I think breathing in the mold all day from your leaking windows at HT is making you sick. See a doctor!

    BTW: Are you really serious that the windows there leak? Are you trying to tell me that Governor Corznine and Eli Manning both live in a building with leaking windows, with all their money??

  483. syncmaster says:

    3b #482,

    They’re saying we’ll be one of the first to turn around – not that we are turning around or even about to turn around.

  484. 3b says:

    #455 Robert I do no thave your insecurities, so need for you house. In the end its only 4 walls and a roof.You can keep your big house.

  485. 3b says:

    #445 July and August is the slow season for real estate, not the peak,silly rabbitt.

  486. James Bednar says:

    Didn’t someone, last year, predict that the discussion in this forum would deteriorate into argument as the housing bust played out?

    jb

  487. James Bednar says:

    Not only that, but it would be evidence of a deteriorating market…

  488. Robert says:

    “#445 July and August is the slow season for real estate, not the peak,silly rabbitt.”

    No, the market in the summer is quite strong. You are renting so what do you know about when the market is strong/weak?

  489. Robert says:

    JB,

    I do not think the quality of posts here are evidence of a deteriorating market. A blog should not be used to judge a market. There are more important indicators, like statistics from reputable organizations

  490. lostinny says:

    Wow I went out for a while, came back, and just saw the stupid explode all over this place. Someone I knew, who coincidently was pretty stupid, had the best saying- “I refuse to have a battle of the wits with an unarmed opponent”. I think its best we keep that in mind in order to save ourselves the aggravation.

  491. BC Bob says:

    “No, the market in the summer is quite strong. You are renting so what do you know about when the market is strong/weak?”

    $1.99,

    I am renting now. I do know the market was strong in 9/2005. The market told me. Present day, just a depreciating roof accompanied by 4 walls. Where I sit, you buy low and sell high. When you are wrong, probably more than right, you move quick to avoid damage. To sit and wait and wait and wait is a recipe for disaster. Football kickoff is looming, the bird will be on the table before you know it. I’d rather be eating, enjoying it as opposed to holding it.

  492. BC Bob says:

    “this entire thread is a sack of garbage”

    Chi,

    Hear,hear.

  493. Everything's 'boken says:

    491
    O’ wad som power the giftee gie us …

  494. BC Bob says:

    “Japanese corporate bond risk rose to the highest in more than two years and debt sales faltered globally as investors shunned all but the safest of debt.”

    “You have a stampede of the animals away from the watering hole,” said Scott MacDonald, director of research at Aladdin Capital Management in Stamford, Connecticut, which manages about $20 billion in assets. “Right now, everything that smacks of financial risk is backing out through the door.”

    “Risk premiums surged after Absolute Capital Group Ltd., an Australian hedge fund, suspended withdrawals from two funds after forecasting losses on U.S. subprime mortgages.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a2w5w029fvH8&refer=home

  495. Eisbär says:

    or, as a good friend to Hoboken resident Kanye West once said, “a wise man told me, don’t argue with fools / because from a distance, people can’t tell who is who.”

  496. x-underwriter says:

    Get your bat guano here

    http://homeharvest.com/guano.htm

  497. Robert says:

    Why does everyone talk about Richard’s house? Where does he live?

  498. Robert says:

    “sit and wait and wait and wait is a recipe for disaster.”

    Those who wait the market out will be the smart ones at the end of the day. Eventually the market will recover. And when it does, we will be one of the first to recover, according to the Business Week article.

  499. woodyusa says:

    I am actually relieved that the gold coast of NJ is stong. Overall my friends in the bay area of SF and the LA area are telling me things are off. My family in the midwest tell me about the soft market there and those that are looking on the high end of the market like myself are finding deals. My brother in law who is a home builder in Westchester is my biggest concern right now. He is not getting the calls and is worried.

    Sure it is a global economy for the NY crowd and we have plenty of padding up here but the Jersey Shore crowd? I also have friends and family down the shore are they tell me the for sale signs are up and the bids are low.

    Good for me and bad for them.

    Adapt or perish I say!

  500. Clotpoll says:

    3b (431)-

    Everyday is Sept. 1.

    Let’s just refer to it as the RE version of Groundhog Day.

  501. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    Skip Prosser?

  502. BC Bob says:

    “Those who wait the market out will be the smart ones at the end of the day.”

    $1.99,

    History has certainly been kind to every bubble sitter.

  503. Clotpoll says:

    Duck (461)-

    You are consistent. Consistently wrong. Again.

    I have only had a handful of listings (RESALE listings, BTW) since mid-’05 that were marketed without the seller offering to entertain ANY lender-approved concession scenario. I’m hardly alone in that boat. Plenty of agents are doing this for their resale listings.

    If those aren’t incentives on resales, I don’t know what is.

    This is a RE blog. Perhaps some day you’ll decide to learn something about RE before coming here to core-dump yet more blather about your shining city on a hill and your poor, misunderstood listing that can’t sell.

  504. Clotpoll says:

    BC (502)-

    Just a crying shame. Awful, terrible, senseless. One of those things where nothing good can be found, and all the preachers just tell you to have faith, and you feel like a moron for even listening to them.

  505. dreamtheaterr says:

    Is this the first time we’ve crossed 500 comments in a thread?

    Anyway, time to go and get some sleep. Am wondering how Asia reacts to today’s sell off here.

  506. Clotpoll says:

    Grim (488)-

    The blog disintegrates into argument, because a pack of trolls feels compelled to spew forth a nonstop geyser of babble and half-baked, self-serving conjecture.

  507. Clotpoll says:

    dream (506)-

    Only about 250 of these represent the final outcome of coherent thought.

  508. Clotpoll says:

    Troll (499)-

    “Those who wait the market out will be the smart ones at the end of the day.”

    Are you Barbara Corcoran?

    I woke up this morning to her yammering something like this while Matt Lauer appeared to be looking for a garbage can to puke in.

    I now end the day with your similar utterance above.

    Bookended by turds.

  509. Clotpoll says:

    BC-

    Asia-watching tonight?

    Another day like today, and I’m coming back in.

    Sharpening my pick-axe now.

  510. Rich In NNJ says:

    Robert Says:
    July 26th, 2007 at 8:06 pm

    The percentage of existing home sellers offering incentives is very small.

    Not in my recent experience. Incentives aren’t advertised.

  511. Rich In NNJ says:

    No, the market in the summer is quite strong. You are renting so what do you know about when the market is strong/weak?

    And YOU know the market?

    You can’t sell your house “so what do you know about when the market is strong/weak?”

  512. James Bednar says:

    GDP should make for an interesting open.

  513. Emu Preservation Society says:

    Given the posts today, we feel compelled to open up the books and begin our annual membership drive.

    By the looks of it, we’ll have a number of excellent candidates.

    Please be forewarned, however, that our IQ requirements have recently been increased to 9.7, and as such, some may simply not make the cut.

    However, never fear- the Reptilian Family Alliance will be expanding membership to include all those on the lower end of the food chain, including Wealthy Trolls, Whining Ducks, and what have you.

    Included with membership will be a 10-week course entitled “Help the Gene Pool- Benefits of Sterilization,” followed by an expert Brain Mass Index (BMI) analysis, along with a framed certificate of authenticity.

    Alternatively, we can frame some of these blog posts.

    Thank You.

  514. Clotpoll says:

    Hey everybody! What does Kannekt have in common with the great new blog at Realtor.com?

    They both censor comments. Wish I could say I was surprised.

    I made a submission- identifying myself as a Realtor- at this gem of a post,

    http://ar3thur.topproducerwebsite.com/read-my-blog.asp?p=3

    …and it got deleted.

  515. Clotpoll says:

    Emu (514)-

    “Included with membership will be a 10-week course entitled “Help the Gene Pool- Benefits of Sterilization,” followed by an expert Brain Mass Index (BMI) analysis, along with a framed certificate of authenticity.”

    Eugenics…always in style.

  516. Clotpoll says:

    http://ar3thur.topproducerwebsite.com/read-my-blog.asp?p=3

    Perhaps some others here can stop by this thread and kick the cadaver who appears to have authored it.

  517. Richard says:

    >>Google, that made me chuckle

    yeah me too, all the way to the bank at a profit of $155 a share. i’ll continue to make money while you go laugh in a corner.

  518. Richard says:

    >>I asked you what stocks to buy today. You said Apple, Google and Goldman. Then you backed off and said we should have bought five years ago. You changed your mind. Make sense??

    wrong. read post #391 that came before i mentioned those stocks where i directly referenced your remark. next.

  519. Pat says:

    Sorry, Clot. I think Art hits the hay before 11.

    I tried.

  520. Pat says:

    Do you think it helps him a great deal with that Santa Claus thing going?

    You know, Miracle on 34th St., house and all?

  521. Richard says:

    chicago you think you’re funny with your attempt at repartee but you sound more like a social misfit in search of friends on the net. sad.

  522. Richard says:

    tcm on #475, the most thoughtful, balanced response on the subject i’ve read all day.

  523. Richard says:

    >>Why does everyone talk about Richard’s house? Where does he live?

    i live in westfield and i’m not a bubble believer hanging around on this blog. need i say more?

  524. Steve says:

    Clot (516),

    Sometimes even Darwin can use a helping hand…

Comments are closed.