From the Record:
Every Sunday, “Open House” signs sprout on the lawns of houses all over North Jersey.
But do open houses actually sell properties? Realtors don’t always agree.
I’ve been in business for 22 years, and I’ve sold only two houses through open houses,” said Ana Maria Quintela, an agent with Re/Max Villa Realtors in North Bergen. “It’s unproductive to spend four hours sitting in a house. Sometimes people show up, sometimes they don’t.”
On the other hand, Donna Tkacz, office manager of Weichert in Wyckoff, made one of her very first sales through an open house when she started as a real estate agent 12 years ago. She thinks they can be an effective sales tool.
Maureen McSpirit of McSpirit and Beckett Real Estate in Tenafly said her office does a lot of open houses — but with very mixed results. Sometimes they draw a dozen prospective buyers, sometimes only one or two.
“We just sold a house from an open house,” she said. “I don’t know if the buyers would have come otherwise.”
But, she added, sometimes months go by without an open house leading to a sale.
…
“Now, not as many people come through open houses,” Hall said. And, with more properties to choose from, few make bids on the spot at open houses, real estate agents say. If they visit an open house, they usually come back to see the place again before making an offer.According to research by the National Association of Realtors, home buyers don’t rely heavily on open houses. The 2006 NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers found that about half of recent buyers used open houses as an information source in their home search. Of those, 52 percent found open houses very or somewhat useful, while 48 percent found them not useful.
Realtors often complain that the only people who show up at open houses are nosy neighbors, rather than serious buyers. But Tkacz says those neighbors can help make the sale: “They have friends and relatives who may be very interested in living in the same neighborhood.”
…
Some real estate experts say that whatever open houses do for the home seller, they can help the agent find clients among the buyers who visit. Hall said he found several clients that way.“It’s a good way for agents to start their business,” Tkacz said.
Open houses are nothing more than an opportunity for agents to use a client’s home as a Sunday office for the purpose of meeting buyers.
For a large company like Weichert, it is also:
1. an excellent way to impose control/discipline on agents.
2. an activity that costs the company virtually nothing, that can also be paraded in front of potential listing clients in the guise of an effective marketing tool.
From Bloomberg:
Home Foreclosures Doubled in September on Loan Rates
U.S. home foreclosures doubled in September from a year earlier as subprime borrowers struggled to make payments on their adjustable-rate mortgages, RealtyTrac Inc. said.
There were 223,538 foreclosure filings last month, including default and auction notices and bank repossessions, the research company said today. California had the most with 51,259 and Florida was second with 33,354. The national foreclosure rate was one for every 557 households, according to RealtyTrac.
Foreclosures are deepening the U.S. housing recession by pushing more homes onto a market where sales and prices are dropping. The glut of unsold homes makes it difficult to sell or refinance without losing money. As many as half of the 450,000 subprime borrowers whose mortgages will re-set through November may lose their homes because they can’t afford the higher payments, according to a report by Credit Suisse Group.
“The truth of the matter is that borrowers are going into default as soon as they hit their adjustments,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of marketing at Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac.
From RealtyTrac:
Foreclosure Activity Decreases 8 Percent in September According to RealtyTrac(R) U.S. Foreclosure Market Report
Unfortunately, NJ was one of the few areas that didn’t see a decrease in September. Foreclosure activity in NJ increased 16% in September.
grim (3)-
NJ foreclosures are piling up. I’ve never seen it worse in Hunterdon/Somerset.
Question: Why banks are not selling their REOs?
Could it be they are not willing to write down their inflated portfolios?
As much as we know that open house’s do not sell homes, clients want them.They always want them. I’ve explained the percentages, but still they want them.
It has always been the best way for me personally to get new clients. And I explain that too.
With a husband and 2 sons, who are totally into football what the heck am I going to do on sunday’s in the fall anyway??
KL
Michigan slaps 6% tax on investment advice.
Is NJ next?
Say It Ain’t So Mo-Zillo, Say It Aint So!!
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/11/business/11land.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=business&adxnnlx=1192104034-A6vj0K5HGrXqUu0MComhKA
A look at past downturns
Guest perspective: Weak markets have lasted several years
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=64866
Pay off toxic debt with even more!!!!
******* Offers Subprime Personal Loans
******** an online loan service based in Scottsdale, Ariz., has announced the introduction of a subprime personal loan to help borrowers catch up on mortgage payments. The new product will allow borrowers to take out unsecured four-year loans for up to $15,000 at annual percentage rates ranging from 5% to 20%. “Flexible underwriting allows consumers with bad credit to get cash even if they are currently behind on their housing payments,” ********* said. The company can be found on the Web at http://**********
“With a husband and 2 sons, who are totally into football what the heck am I going to do on sunday’s in the fall anyway??”
KL,
Go to Graham’s Tavern?
Clot [4],
Worse than the early 90’s?
my realtor agrees, open houses are more for the agent to get new clients than to attract potential buyers.
I will say that if you go to an open house and there are a ton of people, it leads you to believe hte house is wanted and it’s priced appropriately, otherwise there wouldn’t be so many people there.
Grim – you’ll want to delete comment 188 from the Billy Joel thread yesterday.
What’s the reason for 10yr rate increase? Import prices didn’t add up to expectation?
From the AP:
Countrywide’s Volume Falls 44 Percent
Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation’s largest mortgage lender, said Thursday its mortgage fundings for the month of September fell 44 percent from the same period a year ago.
Total mortgage fundings in September fell to $21.2 billion from $38.1 billion during September 2006.
With rising delinquencies among subprime mortgages _ loans given to customers with poor credit history _ Countrywide has nearly abandoned that type of loan completely. Subprime originations fell to $255 million in September, from $3.1 billion during September 2006.
Funding of adjustable-rate mortgages, which have also fallen out of favor as delinquencies and defaults have risen, was drastically reduced as well. Countrywide originated $3.8 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages in September, down from $15.8 billion last year.
Open Houses worked for me on two occasions. I sold and bought.
#14
Of course, some freedoms have disappeared overnight, like habeas corpus and privacy, and of course freedom of speach is slowly disappearing to.
#14
Of course, some freedoms have disappeared overnight, like habeas corpus and privacy, and freedom of speach is slowly disappearing too.
Finally got my handgun permit. The process took over 7 months and included 3 visits to the local police station.
Grim, why 3 visits to the police station?
Beazer….ooppps…
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a4SnCSmwFsQY&refer=us
Finally got my handgun permit. The process took over 7 months and included 3 visits to the local police station.
That took forever. Do you know what you are getting?
I like the Desert Eagle 0.50AE myself.
I found the open houses very helpful when searching for our home. Especially as I wasn’t too familiar with NJ and wanted to scout out towns and see what our $$ got us (not much). The most annoying thing about them was actually the agents ‘soliciting’ for business when we already had one. The house we ended up buying was actually having an open house the day we stopped by with our agent (didn’t have to worry about scheduling etc…).
Chi [23],
First one to go kaput.
#14 ans #20,
Don,t forget about the fun of the North American Union That is being pushed
Slightly conspiracy theory, but the effort by politicians does actually exist
http://tinyurl.com/2k44or
Beazer:
“Beazer issued preliminary financial results for the fourth quarter and said home closings fell 39 percent to 3,940. New orders plunged 52 percent to 990 homes as the cancellation rate surged to 68 percent due “in large part to the pronounced tightening in the mortgage markets in August and September.”
68% cancellation rate– wow
#21 – that’s another freedom to worry about.
#23
Beazer is toast….who is next ? KHOV ?
Open houses have this use, from my perspective: I won’t buy without having looked at most every house in my range and location, but I don’t think it’s fair to make my agent take me for a private viewing of 50 houses that I know for certain I won’t buy – I want him/her paying attention during visits to the half dozen actual prospects. So I can go to 50 open houses over the course of a couple of months and really get comfortable that I know what’s out there and at what price, without repeatedly ruining my agent’s Saturday for no reason.
Whoever eventually sells me a house will have 50 other people’s open houses to thank for it.
The 50 other people, not so much.
#28
holy cr@p.
Renting # 24
A desert eagle… really? That is a gun for serious target competition or just to make a “big boom”. If you want a handgun for both self/home defense go with a .45 such as the glock 21, SIGARMS P22, or H&K MK23. For ammo, find out what either the state police use or the local police and use the same ammo. You may also want to consider low velocity rounds for self, home defense in order to limit the potential for collateral damage such as shooting through walls in your own home in a self defense situation. A shotgun is also an excellent choice for home security, it a very intimidating weapon and takes much less accuracy to use effectively
The reason for the ammo choice is that there have been successful civil law suits on the basis that the individual who legally shot in self defense was using “killer Bullets” designed to do more damage. While this is complete BS, by using the same ammo as police its a CYA method.
Grim,
If i may ask, what was the hold up? were the local police being a PITA? were the state regulation links i gave you any help?
hmm
just curious who here thinks that we’ll see $100 oil before the end of ’08?
Show of hands?
Taser, although illegal for personal use in NJ is a good way to defend your home as well. Again, illegal in NJ.
By the way – interesting anecdote.
My brother built his own house in 2004 (his two hands for everything (including plumbing/electric) except digging the well and pouring the basement). Now he is midway through the process of building an addition that will be equal in size to the original portion of the house (aggregate size is 3K square feet).
He reports that the cost of building materials has risen dramatically, to a degree that surprised him.
Not sure what’s behind this, but I think building materials price in increased oil prices quickly, so that may be part of it.
In any event, that’s just fwiw.
#35 NJ patient
I think that oil will not hit 100 until late winter/early spring of 08. Its an easier sell if they can try and pin it on winter demand or “driving season”
We did applications and fingerprinting on the first visit. Second visit was at the 5 month mark to complain. They told us we’d see them at 6 months. We didn’t see them at 6, so we went in again. Turns out they had them, dated, but didn’t mail them to us.
We’ve got two guns, I’ve got a Sig 9mm Blackwater and my wife shoots a Sig .40 Equinox.
patient,
Which materials?
I thought lumber was coming down due to decreased demand(?).
Copper pipes have been expensive for a while.
Lots of stories about people robbing pipes out of vacant houses.
Grim,
Did you get the guns for primarily sport or self defense? just curious, I love target shooting myself.
40
I’ll have to ask about lumber – he didn’t go into specifics.
Sport/Target
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Turmoil Hits Renters
Tenants Face Eviction
When Their Buildings
Go Into Foreclosure
By KELLY EVANS
October 11, 2007; Page D1
The mortgage mess is claiming a new group of victims: renters.
Across the country, a rising number of landlords are falling behind on mortgage payments, sending their properties into foreclosure, according to legal-services attorneys, local officials and financial experts — and in many cases, their tenants are being forced out of their homes. Often, the tenants’ first inkling of trouble occurs when they get a letter from the bank directing them to leave the premises.
[snip]
In many cases, the homes and apartments entering foreclosure are owned by investors who got low-rate teaser mortgages and intended to hold the buildings for a few years and then sell them at a profit — before their mortgage rates rose. Now, with the housing market badly depressed in many markets, the owners can’t sell the homes or afford the higher mortgage payments. Many are defaulting.
In most states, says Ms. Liben, foreclosure voids leases, and banks move quickly to get tenants out. “Depending upon the state, tenants get between three and 30 days notice,” she says. A few states have laws protecting tenants from eviction in the event of foreclosure, and others are moving to give renters more notice, Ms. Liben says.
Renters’ woes are beginning to attract wider attention. Yesterday, Eric Rosengren, in his first speech as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said that the high number of foreclosures on multifamily homes in parts of Massachusetts “highlights a potentially serious problem for tenants, who may not have known that the owner might be in a precarious financial position.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119206052887155348.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news
My wife would never go for having one in the house :( :( :(
These stats really are amazing…
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071011/foreclosure_rates.html
Nevada, Florida and California had the highest foreclosure rates in the country last month, the firm said.
Nevada reported one foreclosure filing for every 185 households, earning the state the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for the ninth month in a row. The state had 5,504 filings in September, down 11.1 percent from August and more than triple from September 2006.
Florida had one foreclosure filing for every 248 households. The state reported 33,354 foreclosure filings in September, down just less than 2 percent from August, but more than three times greater than September 2006’s total.
California’s foreclosure rate was one filing for every 253 households. The state reported the most foreclosure filings of any single state with 51,259, down 11 percent from August but a fourfold increase from September of last year.
From Bloomberg:
Countrywide Says Bad Mortgages Rise, New Loans Fall
Countrywide Financial Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage company, said late payments at its servicing unit rose, foreclosures doubled and new loans fell 44 percent as housing sales slowed.
Delinquencies as a percentage of unpaid principal increased to 5.85 percent in September from 4.04 percent a year earlier, the company said in a statement. Foreclosures rose to 1.27 percent from 0.51 percent. Mortgages funded by the Calabasas, California-based company last month declined to $21 billion.
Countrywide has nearly abandoned that type of loan completely.
Countrywide publishes their subprime rate sheets online. It’s amazing to compare the old with the new.
For example, in March a buyer with a 600 FICO score could get a 2/28 ARM for 90% LTV based on stated income with an interest rate of 9.6%.
Today, a buyer with a 600 FICO score can only get a fixed rate loan at 12.6% and needs 20% down.
While there is a lot of talk about getting buyers with ARMs to refinance into fixed rate mortgages to avoid payment shock, is this really a viable option for many?
Let’s say you bought a $400k home in March under the March terms above (which, BTW, already include substantially tighter standards that previously available). You decide its time to refinance into a FRM to avoid “payment shock”. Assuming all fees and penalties are waived, you will need to walk into a Countrywide office with a check for $40,000 to bring the LTV ratio up to the new standard. After which, your payment will actually increase from $3,050 to $3,440.
#45 why not, you store the ammo and the weapon in 2 different lock boxes. Statistically one of the biggest dangers in firearm ownership is self inflicted wounds or accidental shootings which are often due to poorly trained individuals. SO if you get the firearm going a club, take the classes and practice at the range at least once a month. If you are a well trained competent firearm owner then it is no more dangerous then a kitchen knife. Ultimately the gun is no different then a kitchen knife, a tool that can be dangerous if misused…
Take the wife to a beginners firearm class (they have classes specifically for women. they will do an intro and fire the weapon. Then get her opinion again after the class. an intro class will run you $50-$150 and will supply everything, including a firearm
A desert eagle… really? That is a gun for serious target competition or just to make a “big boom”.
I know it’s impractical, but I like the big boom :)
I actually like the idea of a shotgun for home defense for the reasons you stated.
UBS Firings:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10112007/business/subprime_snuffs_ubs_execs.htm
I don’t think a gun is a practical home defense tool. Why? You’ll need to unlock the gun, unlock the ammo, unlock the trigger lock, load the clip, etc.
This process would take me more than 10 minutes, maybe less if I can run up and down the basement quickly.
Keeping a gun for home defense means you’ve got it loaded, under your pillow. Statically, you are probably more likely to hurt yourself or a family member than actually finding yourself in a position where you need to use it.
Home defense? Get an alarm, a dog, or a Louisville slugger. A gun? Not practical.
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago
http://tinyurl.com/3cwnoj
Best burglar alarm I’ve ever known was my ex-wife’s dachshund. That little dude knew what was up.
From MarketWatch:
U.S. fixed-rate mortgages tick up in latest week
U.S. fixed-rate mortgages edged higher on average in the latest week, according to Freddie Mac’s survey released Thursday. The national average interest rate on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate loan averaged 6.40% in the week ending Thursday, up from 6.37% a week earlier. A year ago the loan averaged 6.37% as well. The 15-year fixed-rate loan and the five-year, Treasury-indexed hyrid adjustable-rate loan also inched higher.
Grim #52,
I agree to point. a firearm for home defense can be more of a liability the a resource if you are not well trained. If you seroisly want a firearm for home defense there is plenty of training availble for that. The main point being that you need to have enough training so that your “emergency” response to a potential intruder/home invasion in “muscle memory” in a normal high stress situation of a late night break in your body goes into fight/flight and many of your higher level thought processes shut down, allowing your survival instincts run the show. This is a bad thing if you are not highly trained as this is how you end up shooting you own child who was sneaking back into the house after coming home late. The other issue is that most people with only casual training do not/cannot properly aim/verify target under that level of stress. Even with a fair amount of training your accuracy is going to be off, that is why a shotgun will probably be more effective.
There are some very good courses in tactical firearms that will train you to handle high stress situations smoothly, not a bad investment if you are going to own a firearm.
Also consider that statistics show that potentially violent conflicts often end with the perpetrator retreating once they see that you are armed.
I grew up with the phrase “Gun control is a steady hand”, but I have to say I don’t understand the allure of owning a gun. I respect a person’s right to own, but I can’t see a reason for it(?). I’m talking in terms of handguns, not shotguns or rifles (for hunting). Unless you’re in the security field or own a cash business where you transport $$, I don’t think handguns (or assault weapons) should be legal. With all these kids shooting people up in schools and city streets – it just doesn’t make sense to me. Just my opinion. And I’m not judging / criticizing Grim or any else for owning, just posing a question.
Grim
to summarize, you are correct, for most people a dog is a more effective security device
SRS under $80 – it indicates the worse is over in housing recession.
Realtor Leads, neighbors, and Thieves.
Realtor leads because they find new clients.
Neighbors because they are nosey and want to know why your house is selling for the amount it is and what condition plus overall nosyness.
Thieves because its an open invite for them to scope out your home and theft deterrent system.
“I’ll have to ask about lumber”
Ask the lumber trader.
Grim
#61 is NY related, unmoderate??? Plz?
#55 (grim)
Question — any idea how the Freddie Mac number sdiffer from the Bankrate numbers so drastically?:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/pftools/rates/RateChart.asp?sid=159412
I’m a bit clueless here but curious nevertheless :)
#57
I wouldn’t want to make handguns illegal, but I think whoever is the legal owner of the gun some 13 year old takes to school and shoots ten kids with should be bankrupted by the ensuing liability because of his gross negligence, and perhaps do some time for second degree manslaughter.
Frankly, the same goes for the owner of a pit bull who kills the kid down the street.
But I default against making gun-ownership illegal.
“Ask the lumber trader.”
Whose the lumber trader, BC?
patient[65],
Someone on this site, I forget who, is an expert in trading and/or analyzing lumber cash/futures.
http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Why_Investing_in_Stocks_Instead_of_a_House_Will_Make_You_Richer.html?ref=patrick.net
Regarding all the talk about rising lumber prices, I remember seeing articles a few years ago that discussed how the War in Iraq was driving up prices… I managed to find:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/companies/2004-06-14-iraq_x.htm
I wonder if that’s still having an impact since, for the last few years, we’ve been in mostly a put-it-up/blow-it-up/put-it-back-up-again feedback loop?
BC (12)-
I didn’t get here until the early ’90s bust was already pretty much mopped up. I was doing my thing down South during the RTC heyday.
However, I get the feeling- from others- that the last bust was more commercially-based here. This time, it’s almost 100% residential. The commercial market here remains surprisingly decent.
#65 pateint
That is already the case. You can be nailed to the wall in a civil suit in any of those insidents
Forclosures from Kettle.
FL and CA 1 out of every 250 houses in forclosure. Nevada 1 out of 185. Kettle, do you know what NJ looks like ? THanks
grim (17)-
Definitely no CFC party at this year’s convention in AC.
If I report from the floor, will you pay me as a correspondent?
Would you at least buy me a martini?
How about an $8.99 all-you-can-eat buffet?
BIG (36)-
It’s not illegal if you don’t get caught.
-Angelo Mozilo
grim (39)-
“We’ve got two guns, I’ve got a Sig 9mm Blackwater and my wife shoots a Sig .40 Equinox.”
Nice to see you’ve bonded. Does this mean a guest appearance by the packing Grimette at the next get-together?
Mr potter
look at the table on the bottom of the page. data shows 1 foreclosure for every 667 households, a 19% increase from august and a 60% increase from Sep 06
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3414&accnt=64847
BIG (45)-
Keep it in your car (where it’s handy and can do you some good). :)
HE (54)-
Nothing gets past my Doxy. She smells trouble all the way up the street.
Making guns illegal will prevent gangs from getting guns because they get them through the legal channels now. John Q. Property owner having a gun is the real problem!
#79
Making guns illegal will prevent gangs from getting guns because they get them through the legal channels now. John Q. Property owner having a gun is the real problem
are you serious????? what is you justification for such an argument???
Your sarcasm detector must be off…
Could the reason for the dip in foreclosures in September be because there were so many in previous months that banks are building a backlog?
“Regarding all the talk about rising lumber prices,”
[68],
Just a joke. Front month future, November, is approx 50% off its 2004 high.
#64
Wouldn’t it make sense to avoid it from the get-go…disallow handguns and assault weapons period?
40 years ago – fine I understand, but in today’s “video game fantasy” world, I think kids have a difficult time distinguishing between what’s real and false, which probably in some way led to columbine, West Va., Cleveland, etc. I’m not a big gamer, but when I play a car game like Grand Tourismo and then get into my little Subaru rocket to pick up milk, I drive like an idiot for about 30 minutes. I can’t imagine the affect on the impressionable mind of a middle schooler after playing some war game for 4 hours.
Friend just called. It seems BOA opened a 10 mil CD instead of the 100K he had asked for.
small mistake i guess :)
#81,
# thatBIGwindow Says:
October 11th, 2007 at 11:54 am
Your sarcasm detector must be off…
sorry, my sarcasm meter is out for repairs… damn chinese imports ;)
#84,
Wouldn’t it make sense to avoid it from the get-go….disallow Idiots and morons from reproducing period?
40 years ago – fine I understand, but in today’s “video game fantasy” world, I think kids have a difficult time distinguishing between what’s real and false, which probably in some way led to fox news, paris hilton, G.W. Bush, etc. I’m not a big gamer, but when I play a car game like Grand Tourismo and then get into my little Subaru rocket to pick up milk, I drive like an idiot for about 30 minutes. I can’t imagine the affect on the impressionable mind of a middle schooler after playing “Command and Conk Her” or “Duke Nookie 3D” for 4 hours.
#83: Kids shooting themselves is small compared to gang violence (especially in NJ where there is a big gang presence) Banning guns will do nothing to solve the gang violence problem.
Personally, I think Yorkshire Terriers should be banned. I almost tripped over one once and I could have broken a collar bone or something. Scary!
I understand your point, however 1 or 2 misguided kids who shoot and kill 30 innocent people is enough to convince me that tighter laws should be put in place. Even if it “only” happens once in a while. Besides if you’re thinking of in terms of occurrences, how often do gang members kill non-gang members? Probably not as often as rival gangs shoot each other – is it wrong then?
CFC more layoffs?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071011/countrywide_results.html?.v=6
California in a recession?
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/california-retail-sales-and-use-taxes.html
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
I know everyone is mad at me, but this article about subprime and real estate in todays wall street journal is perhaps the best real estate article I have seen in many months.
OT: Scherholz quitting the Braves!
Kettle #75, thanks
So, NJ is 13th highest in forclosures. Interesting. I would bet lots of money that NJ cracks the top 10 in 2008 especially if Wall St bonuses suck or there are significant layoffs. I have been looking at certain towns in NJ where properties are for sale and researching how much people are leveraged – its amazing how many houses have $1M plus mortgages.
#89
There is a young adult book out called “Rash” by Pete Hautman. It basically is a glimpse into the future where the USA is renamed the United Safety States. You could go to jail for hurting someones feelings, people are required to wear excessive safety equipment, etc.
“OT: Scherholz quitting the Braves!”
best free agent of the offseason.
“There’s a serious dearth of middle-management talent in New Jersey.”
I disagree. The reason why New Jersey real estate companies can’t hold onto good people is because they can earn double or more in New York.
http://www.globest.com/newjersey/renj/7_8/164788-1.html
#89,
If you are really worried about safety then consider this…
in 2004 there were 29,569 gun related deaths out of a USA population of 293,638,158. So there were 10.07 gun related deaths per 100,000 people
in 2004 there were 45,113 motor vehicle related deaths out of a USA population of 293,638,158. So there were 15.36 motor vehicle deaths per 100,000 people.
So you have a 0.01% overall chance of being killed by a gun based on 2004 CDC info and 0.015% chance of being killed by a car.
data came from here
http://webapp.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/mortrate.html
Clotpoll – need to make a quick comment on your comments yesterday about the Red Sox payroll about how they “still win.”
They won ONCE. They were out in the first round in 2005 and finished in third place last year. They haven’t won this year YET.
By the way, the Mets have the highest payroll in the National League. Where has that gotten THEM?
The inferiority complex of Mets fans such as yourself is amazing.
From #92 link
She says she has stopped paying her mortgage and is trying to negotiate with her lender. “I’m going to lose my home anyway,” she says, “so why pay?”
exactly, i wouldn’t either, you’re credit is screwed anyway, might as well do your best to screw the bank further, F morals.
Can we ban obesity?
If the rumored sale of seastreak ferries to the government of Trinidad is true then prices will plummet in Monmouth county while people desperately look to move further north in Bergen county. So, hang tight, there just might be a thousand or so people looking to relocated by the end of the year. Nobody can tolerate a two hour bus ride and there’s much less parking than there is up north.
#103, I’m not familiar with this sale, but would they eliminate those routes?
Grim/Others
Do you know where i can find retail and use tax numbers for NJ?
Mrsp: I completely do not understand your point. In addition, there is an alternative ferry service and also the train.
WSJ – Letters Section
Forget Chest-Pounding, Restore Your Reputation
Countrywide chairman and CEO Angelo Mozilo’s street-fighting strategy (“Countrywide Tells Workers, ‘Protect Our House’,” Marketplace, Oct. 3) is adding fuel to the fire. If he thinks this will fix his reputation and that of Countrywide, he is being sadly led astray and will be a casualty of that effort. You can’t rebuild your corporate reputation in the midst of a crisis. While it may feel good now to divert internal management attention externally and blame the big, bad villains who are smearing your reputation, the public views it as corporate arrogance, victimization and defensiveness, qualities that Countrywide should attempt not to have associated with its name.
Better to listen to sound advice: Keep your head down, let the crisis pass, work from the inside out to restore balance and demonstrate your focus on the business at hand, so that at the right time it can exemplify your corporate ethics and values. The arrogance of a man who makes $120 million pounding his chest that he is going on a crusade and not going to take it anymore is pure hypocrisy that everyone sees through. Real reputation management doesn’t happen on center stage. It starts and ends behind the scenes with a company’s integrity.
Agnes Huff, Ph.D.
President & CEO
Agnes Huff Communications Group Los Angeles
#104 – I’m not sure there are any other boats available that could transport the 3,000 or so daily commuters which would leave Belford as an option, but they can’t handle that much of influx either.
There are interesting comments under “signatures”
http://www.ipetitions.com/petition/Saveseastreak/index.html
^^^ to 106. People will move to northern NJ where it’s a shorter commute to NYC.
98
If you are really worried about safety then consider this…
in 2004 there were 29,569 gun related deaths out of a USA population of 293,638,158. So there were 10.07 gun related deaths per 100,000 people
in 2004 there were 45,113 motor vehicle related deaths out of a USA population of 293,638,158. So there were 15.36 motor vehicle deaths per 100,000 people.
So you have a 0.01% overall chance of being killed by a gun based on 2004 CDC info and 0.015% chance of being killed by a car.
I have a similar chance of being killed by a car, a necessity used by most people every day, including senior citizens and teenagers, and a gun?
You appear to be making an anti-gun argument…
100
The inferiority complex of Mets fans such as yourself is amazing.
As amazing as Yankee fans defensiveness over their ridiculous payroll?
So who suggested moving to atlanta???
Lake Sidney Lanier, metro Atlanta’s main source of water, has about three months of storage left, according to state and federal officials.
That’s three months before there’s not enough water for more than 3 million metro Atlantans to take showers, flush their toilets and cook. Three months before there’s not enough water in parts of the Chattahoochee River for power plants to make the steam necessary to generate electricity. Three months before part of the river runs dry.
http://tinyurl.com/38lpea
The State would step in and foot the bill for an alternative commuter ferry service if necessary.
It’s an inexpensive price to pay to secure an entire county of votes.
Ms. Baseball (100)-
My post yesterday had nothing to do with the Mets. It had to do with the fact that Boston spent over 267 mil in the past three years on several bags of blood that barely exhibit a pulse. Yet, the team won its division this year and appears to be World Series-bound.
Inferior? Why should any Mets fan feel inferior? Your team pulled the all-time collapse, not ours. It could be argued that the ’04 swoon against the Sox was the beginning of the end…although I’d contend it was the Game 7 bit-spit vs. Arizona in ’01 that did it.
Good luck next year, when your 3rd baseman will be Ty Wiggington and your closer is Jose Mesa.
I’d even contend that this year’s collapse will be one of the best things that ever happened to the Mets. The public humiliation will either destroy them or make them determined to never allow it to happen again.
I don’t think Reyes will show up next year and pull the Rickey Jr. act. Come to think of it…I don’t think Rickey will be there, either.
115
In a few years, will we look back at 2006 as the Mets last best chance to win a WS?
#111 schabadoo
Nope, just showing that there are plenty of ways to die. If banning something is an effective method of eliminating an effect then please explain why prohibition/War On Drugs have failed utterly. Why do we still have Under age drinking/Prostitution/speeding even there are laws prohibiting all of these things. You cannot effectively legislate behavior. behavior is drivin in large part by culture. Also consider that if you look at the FBI crime stats the USA is safer now then almost any other time in the last 100 years. Liberty and freedom come with a price and that price is risk. liberty and freedom do not offer any guarantee of safety, only the opportunity to ensure your own safety
Regarding Yankees collapses since 2004… at least they lost in the PLAYOFFS to good teams, instead of blowing a 7-game first-place lead in the last two weeks of the season to basement dwellers with nothing to lose. I don’t recall any of the Yankees pulling a Reyes by refusing to hustle. You also didn’t hear them making comments such as these:
“We’ve got so much talent, I think sometimes we get bored.” – Carlos Delgado
“We have so much talent that sometimes we relax a little bit.” – Pedro Martinez
“Sometimes when you’re a team as talented as we are – I don’t know if I’d use the word ‘bored,’ but I guess you can get complacent at times.” – Tom Glavine
The Yanks also made it to the playoffs 13 years in a row. What have the Mets done lately? Besides David Wright and John Maine, does their future really look bright? I would not be surprised if Reyes ended up like Dwight Gooden – wasted talent.
Yes, the Yankees blew it this year (again), but they came back roaring after going 21-29 in the first part of the season. That is impressive, no matter what their payroll is.
117
If that’s your point, comparing guns, which are not owned by the majority of Americans and are rarely seen in public, to cars, is a weak argument.
Actually Clotpoll I have a real estate question for you. Are you familiar with the Long Island market? I think I remember your mentioning it a while back. Was just curious about the state of it compared to Northern NJ.
118
After that post, you really should never comment about any Met fans’ complex…
#121… um… ok….
schabadoo
I would love to have an indepth gun debate but this is not the place for it. cheers :)
123
I have no interest in banning guns. You just seem to be hurting your point by comparing them to probably the most dangerous, misused, and widely-owned device out there.
Clot [114],
OK, Yankee fans get it. It’s over, move on. I think you’ve been above ground too much lately. Get back below, prices are going higher. You’d think that maybe there would be a mention of the # 4 ranked F-ball team in the country. By the way, that’s a bigger joke than A Rod.
Moore, the North Carolina treasurer, on October 8 wrote to SEC Chairman Christopher Cox questioning Mozilo’s increasing his stock sales just as the subprime lending crisis was heating up.
Mozilo received about $387 million from pay and stock option gains from 2002 to 2006, regulatory filings show. His stock sales resumed this week after a two-month hiatus.
“There is a tremendous amount of smoke around the motivations and trading practices of at least the CEO of Countrywide, perhaps the whole senior management,” Moore said on CNBC television.
$387 million since 2002. I officially love this guy. Forget Mike I want to be like Mozzillo. It must be that perfect tan.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not anti-gun, I just think we need much tighter controls for hand guns and assault weapons. Like I stated earlier, I personally don’t understand the need for these things, but it is a right that’s allowed in this country.
As for “culture” – are you saying that the recent school shootings are now a part of our culture? Just sit back a get used to it. I don’t think that’s a good idea, do you? Yes you can die from OD-ing on drugs/alcohol, but that’s a personal choice that you do to yourself. Put a gun into the hands of a challenged individual – I think that’s much more dangerous, don’t you? And how can you ensure your own safety when someone else is toting a gun? Wear a BP Vest when going to the office?
I love Torre, he is a great guy and a hall of fame manager but it’s clear that the team needs a new voice. It’s time.
George is getting old and it’s harder for him to make these tough calls at his age. He allowed others to persuade him to keep Torre once. Fat chance he’ll do it again.
13 staright playoff appearances, 10 Division titles and not to mention championships the yankees are the best franchise in sports history.
I’m proud and happy to buy season tickets as I know it’s money well spent. I rather pay a couple of dollars extra and walk out of the stadium feeling good and winning day in and day out then walking out continuously as a looser.
Mets fans you shoould be accostumed to the latter.
enough said.
re: foreclosures
I have been looking at realty-trac for a couple of months and it’s just another scary part of re. There seems to be very few deals to be had and most of these defaults seem to be from people who bought when the market was high. So the problem is that these people or banks want to get a bit more for the loan balance. Seems like this segment of inventory is not reported and damn ugly. How can these big banks afford to sit with these properties? It seems at some point they will have to cut their losses. Does anyone here know of someone who had any luck with realty-trac or foreclosures? To me it just seems like another train wreck.
I’m proud and happy to buy season tickets as I know it’s money well spent. I rather pay a couple of dollars extra and walk out of the stadium feeling good and winning day in and day out then walking out continuously as a looser.
I wish I can say the same about my MSG bill. New season brings new hope. Why don’t I buy that?
#123
Just read your post – I agree, sorry JB.
Back the important stuff – housing and baseball!!
Seems like this segment of inventory is not reported and damn ugly. How can these big banks afford to sit with these properties? It seems at some point they will have to cut their losses.
I agree. There are thousands of REO in New Jersey and New York and the banks are just sitting on them.
If I was running the show I’d wanna be the first bank/lender that unloaded their bad debt collateral. It’s always the last one that gets stuck holding the bag.
my two cents.
#128 SS
NJ has some of the strictest gun laws on the books. Please explain how you would suggest we change the current laws?
Why are you so concerned with “assault weapons” do you know what that actually is? An assault rifle is a selective fire rifle or carbine firing ammunition with muzzle energies intermediate between those typical of pistol and battle rifle ammunition. Assault rifles are categorized between light machine guns, intended more for sustained automatic fire in a support role, and submachine guns, which fire a handgun cartridge rather than a rifle cartridge.
Hunting rifles are regularly more powerful then an assault rifle. Once again what about assault rifles concerns you? is there an assault rifle epidemic/massacre i am not aware of? (Serious Question!)
When i say “culture” i am referring to the recent abandonment of personal responsibility by the american public. this is bad thing!
I do not have the stats available, however i believe they are on the FBI web site. But about 90%( if i remember correctly i may be off) of gun related crime is committed by people who DO NOT legally posses a gun. Legitamite firearm owners (people who have followed the rules) are not the problem. How do more laws correct the issue when the people causing the problem are not following the law to begin with?
United Safety States, here we come!
I can’t wait for the “bugaboo” stroller generation to become adults and put more laws on the books.
Since that gruesome home invasion in Chesire, CT I’ve thought more than once of getting a gun, but realistically I don’t think I’d ever be able to get to it in time in such a situation (assuming it is locked up as any responsible person would do with a gun in the house). The scary thing is that there’s really no good way to protect yourself against people like that
guava (129)-
The problem isn’t the way those properties are dealt with. It’s you.
It’ll all seem Chinese until you learn how that game is played.
Like any other market, they’re not handing out free money at the foreclosure game window. It is a tough, competitive business.
If you want deep discounts, you’ve got to develop a way to get in front of those owners before the lis pendens is filed.
make (130)-
Hey, you’ve got Allan Houston now!
I’d say that brings the Knicks up to about 22-60 this season.
BC (125)-
I cannot think of a reason to watch college football anymore.
To me, every time I watch it, it more and more resembles Canadian football.
w/ regard to “assault weapons” are you may be confused consider the following
Primarily limited to the United States, the term assault weapon is a political term, separate from the military definition, used to describe a variety of semi-automatic firearms that have certain features associated with military or police firearms. The 1994 Federal Assault Weapons Ban, which expired on September 13, 2004, defined the rifle type of assault weapon as a semiautomatic firearm with the ability to accept a detachable magazine, and two or more of the following:
* Folding or telescoping stock
* Conspicuous pistol grip
* Bayonet mount
* Flash suppressor, or threaded barrel designed to accommodate one
* Grenade launcher
A common public misconception persists that the assault weapons ban restricted weapons capable of fully automatic fire, such as assault rifles and machine guns. Fully automatic weapons, however, were unaffected by the ban, and have been continuously and heavily regulated since the National Firearms Act of 1934 was passed. Subsequent laws such as the Gun Control Act of 1968 and the Firearm Owners Protection Act of 1986 also affected the importation and civilian ownership of fully automatic firearms, the latter fully prohibiting sales of newly-manufactured machine guns to non-law enforcement.
Ms. Baseball (120)-
My BIL lives on Long Island. Market there is very similar to here, from what he tells me.
Personally, given the choice between life on LI and execution, I might take a bullet between the eyes.
# 136 Skeptic
I think that you cauld actually access a secured shotgun in short order. The larger shell makes loading easier in a hurry. if you are using a Gun lock on the shotgun with a combo lock, you can undo that in seconds and a digital safe can be opened in seconds also. I timed myself once out of curiosity and was able to unlock and load in under 60 sec. if you have a large to medium size dog, that can act as a basic deterrent as well
You telling us not to worry about your stash of weapons in a residential neighboods with young kids around is like the germans saying never mind the gas just enjoy the shower.
Thanks Clotpoll. I’m from LL myself and my in-laws live there so we visit quite often. There is a slight chance we might relocate there but it probably won’t happen. Like you, I think I’d rather take a bullet between the eyes – unless I could afford to move to a place like Oyster Bay.
Besides, too many Mets fans on Long Island :)
Who needs an assault weapon? Just give me a nice pistol and a high-quality silencer. :)
Don’t want to bother the neighbors when I’m polishing off somebody.
” stash of weapons in a residential neighboods with young kids around…”
I grew up in a house with guns, and I played over a friends house whos father had a large gun room. We knew where the keys were, we could have played with them but we knew better. Personal responsibility and accountability. Not to mention, we were AFRAID of the consequences. I guess times are different now. :/
John do you realize that 1 pound of high explosives contains about 2 MJ of energy (240 GW) of power, but 1 cup of GASOLINE contains 8 MJ of energy (3.2 GW) of power.
Assume that your car holds 15 gallons of gas (15 gal = 240 cups. So your car with a full tank of gas is approximately the same as 150-200 pounds of high explosives.
And your worried about my shotgun????
here’s what happens when gasoline detonates
http://tinyurl.com/2spmkg
John,
if you are worried about my stash, then i would suggest you worry about my stash of mexican food, I could probably gas an entire neighborhood afterwards….
OK – last post for guns.
Dude, get off the wiki sites and look at reality. Flip on the news right now as a matter of fact. Look at what is going on in this country with regards to kids and guns. Yes the overwhelming number of license holders are safe – I have no problem with that. My Godfather was a huge advocate for gun rights but he went through all the legal channels to obtain them for his job. My problem is how do you get the guns out of these kid’s hands? You ban their sale unless you need them for your job like I stated earlier. No grandfather clauses either – just get rid of them, period.
For now, let’s agree to disagree and move on.
I hope the bugaboo stroller generation doesn’t ban sharp kitchen knives when they are in office. I do love to cook…although I will be in my 80’s by then and probably in a nursing home eating mush.
My problem is how do you get the guns out of these kid’s hands?
CAP laws.
If a minor gains access to a firearm in New Jersey, the owner goes to prison for 5 years.
make (130)-
Hey, you’ve got Allan Houston now!
I’d say that brings the Knicks up to about 22-60 this season.
I’m prepared to make a wager that NY Knicks will make the playoffs this year. We’ll let Grim hold on to the money. He’ll actually grow it untill May 2008.
Tell me, are you willing to put your money where your mounth is or is it just REA bulls*it that comes out of your mouth.
Any hair on those saggy old peanuts?
# 149 SS,
fair enough i can agree to disagree. As far as wiki goes, its easier then typing it up myself. My use of the info in not arbitrary however, as i have dealt with explosives and firearms extensively (military + private. Actually worked on a cool project developing a replacement for gunpowder that was in a gel form and shock/temperature insensitive (i.e a fire or explosion will not cause the gel to detonate)
Like any other market, they’re not handing out free money at the foreclosure game window. It is a tough, competitive business.”
thank, yes I have been trying to seed through the “Chinese”, so that is one aspect. I guess I wass assuming that since you are not going through the “cushy” Realtor process of seeing the house and such that you should be able to demand a discount. I think there are more discount to be had at the higher end of house prices whereas the middle and lower priced homes are a bunch of folks who defaulted after buying at the peak.
October 10, 2007 6:44 AM
Just Stand There While I Die
By David Freddoso
The first time someone tried to mug me in Washington D.C., I ran away as he threatened to shoot me from behind.
The second time, when the exact same situation arose, I knew better. I stopped and turned around to confront the robber as soon as he threatened to shoot: “Hey, buddy!” I said confidently. “Who do you think you’re fooling? Guns are outlawed in the District of Columbia — I know you don’t really have one.”
He shot me in the face with a crossbow.
We’ve got two guns, I’ve got a Sig 9mm Blackwater and my wife shoots a Sig .40 Equinox.”
My immediate thought after reading that line
(keeping in mind I’ve been married 20years) was of “War of the Roses”
KL
off topic, but about Open Houses:
My agent sent us an MLS listing last week. I told her we’d do a walk-by over the weekend and let her know if we wanted to see inside.
We walk over at about 4:30, and while looking in the front windows (empty) a neighbor walks over and tells us we just missed the 1-4PM open house. No notice on the MLS listing or anything.
We set up a viewing the next day along with another nearby house.
House #1 needed lots of work (esp. for the price), couldn’t even see in the garage since it was lock (no door to inside house), so we moved on to house #2.
This was much better: quiet cul-de-sac, great yard, more space, etc etc. After about 1.5 hours we leave with the intention to make an offer, but couldn’t figure out how to lock the front door (as if those horrible lock-boxes don’t take my agent enough time to open/close). She calls the sellers agent, who tells her “sorry! that house just went under contract today”.
She ‘forgot’ to put a note in the MLS that this happened.
freking RE agents…
rant over
Nationwide gun control maybe instead of state to state regulations where someone just needs to go to a lax state and pick one up.
I dont own any guns and I cant say I have a desire to own one but I wouldnt mind going to a shooting range and try hitting a target. Dont condone anyone except one person I knew which when I decided I dont want to be around this guy.
I had a buddy of a buddy who used to buy a gun every time he got the cash in his pocket. Lived in a lousy place and drove a crappy truck. What was he going to protect? Not like anyone was going to steal his garbage. But the poor usually steal from the poor. Unfortunately he is the type of person who eventually gives gun owners a bad name.
Guns almost rank up there with having babies. Not everyone should be allowed to have them and it would be great if you could have say a year of testing people before they could have either. Weed out the people who shouldnt even have a spoon.
Kettle – I was the one who suggested Atlanta. Forget everything I said. You’re right – we are running out of water. There is a total ban on outdoor watering except using “gray water” from your bathtub. We have about one month before the pressure starts to drop. There is talk of starting to ration indoor water use in some of the counties in North Georgia. This is serious. Someone said that losing Lake Lanier would be to Atlanta what Katrina was to New Orleans. They’re right. Another reservoir, Lake Allatoona, is nothing but a mud flat now. We’re all trying to conserve and praying for rain.
#154 Interesting. I remember reading about a guy being held up in a phone booth by a guy with a snapping turtle. Sure it can be googled.
#159
BAN SNAPPING TURTLES!!!
Sage Advice:
Keep your guns far from your whiskey.
kettle1
“But about 90%( if i remember correctly i may be off) of gun related crime is committed by people who DO NOT legally posses a gun.”
Yes, but the vast vast majority of guns that are illegally possessed were bought legally and then ended up on the black market via various methods.
“Please explain how you would suggest we change the current laws?”
Ban handguns for everyone except law enforcement. Yeah, I know we have the 2nd ammend but in the constitution we also had the fugitive slave act, the 3/5th compromise, 18th ammend etc and we changed those laws, we can repeal the 2nd ammend too.
The idea that we are safer if EVERYONE owns a gun is ridiculous.
Just my take.
Crash or not?
Short Hill/Millburn Sept. Sales
Address OLP LP SP DOM
115 Greenwood Dr. $595,000 $549,000 $525,000 89
42 Cypress St. $619,000 $619,000 $615,000 11 3
7 S. Mountain Rd. $648,000 $619,000 $619,000 28
9 Meadowbrook Rd. $669,000 $669,000 $669,000 14
24 South Terr. $729,000 $729,000 $715,000 25
36 Exeter Rd. $849,000 $799,000 $800,000 86
50 Mountain Ave. $800,000 $800,000 $835,000 51
6 ½ Brantwood Terr. $839,000 $839,000 $830,000 13
155 Millburn Ave. $1,150,000 $950,000 $875,000 368
57 Woodland Rd. $950,000 $950,000 $1,300,000 7
40 Rippling Brook Dr. $995,000 $995,000 $995,000 23
58 Winthrop Rd. $1,075,000 $1,075,000 $1,160,000 9
2 Gap View Rd. $1,095,000 $1,095,000 $1,350,000 10
69 Lawrence Dr. $1,100,000 $1,100,000 $950,000 105
146 Tennyson Dr. $1,249,500 $1,195,000 $1,150,000 20
24 Wells Ln. $1,350,000 $1,350,000 $1,532,000 9
330 White Oak Ridge Rd.$2,100,000 $2,100,000 $1,975,000 24
43 Park Pl. $2,495,000 $2,350,000 $2,100,000 150
79 Minnisink Rd. $2,500,000 $2,500,000 $2,450,000 74
10 Delbarton Dr. $2,895,000 $2,745,000 $2,300,000 123
10 Far Brook Dr. $3,450,000 $3,450,000 $3,400,000 0
phone booth snapping turtle mugging
http://tinyurl.com/3dpgox
Anybody have a clue what just happened to the markets? Everything seemed to go down at the exact same time. Pretty badly, in fact.
I usually just watch Apple, but it went down $7 in an hour, and i looked elsewhere, and everything else went down, too.
Ok, now going to read the first 163 posts of the day …
164#, this starts bloodbath in winter 2007 you were looking for
164#, 165#, actually rumor on the street was goldman said sell techs but goldman denied it.
bi,
How often can you flip flop in a single day?
posts #59 & #165
#163 Good find and two incidents its a crime spree! Force permits to carry snapping turtles.
Back on that guy I knew who had a crappy place and truck and lots of guns. I dont recall his place having high security either so anyone robbing this guy would get a bunch of guns. I dont recall a safe either.
Also the elderly when my wife’s grandparents passed her father found some 9 guns in the house one a 357 under the bed in a cigar box. I would imagine people who clean out deceased houses might not always return the guns they find.
bi,
9 Meadowbrook
OLP: $859,000 (Not $669,000)
SP: $669,000
DOM: 379 (not 14)
7 S. Mountain
OLP: $739,000 (Not $648,000)
SP: $619,000
DOM: 124 (not 28)
36 Exeter
OLP: $975,000 (Not $849,000)
SP: $800,000
DOM: 97 (not 86)
69 Lawrence
OLP: $1,290,000 (Not $1,100,000)
SP: $950,000
DOM: 289 (not 105)
330 White Oak
OLP: $2,695,000 (Not $2,100,000)
SP: $1,975,000
DOM: 229 (Not 24)
79 Minnisink
OLP: $3,000,000 (Not $2,500,000)
SP: $2,450,000
DOM: 401 (Not 74)
10 Delbarton
OLP: $3,795,000 (Not $2,895,000)
SP: $2,300,000
DOM: 415 (Not 123)
and so on
Key reversal?
Lets see: Drugs are illegal, but people still get them.
So if you banned guns, except for law enforcement the following people will have guns:
Criminals
Law Enforcement Officials
Nice!
169#, thanks for correction. i was just passing what some realtor sent me. seems historical data was missing
bi,
Of course it was missing, a realtor sent it to you.
#172
Yea OK bi! Just like your dog ate your homework in grade school.
bi,
How often can you flip flop in a single day?
posts #59 & #165
With a handle like “bi” I wouldn’t be surprised. Just be glad he/she isn’t “tri”, then it would complicate things.
make (151)-
Name the amount.
guava (153)-
“I guess I wass assuming that since you are not going through the “cushy” Realtor process of seeing the house and such that you should be able to demand a discount. I think there are more discount to be had at the higher end of house prices whereas the middle and lower priced homes are a bunch of folks who defaulted after buying at the peak.”
Guava, nothing personal, but you’ve written 3-4 things today that have convinced me that someone should stop you from purchasing real estate…in any form. Learn the REO/foreclosure game well before you dive in! At the present, you appear to have no clue.
it’s not how many times you fall flat on your face. it’s how many times you get up.
TBW
I see your point but illegal guns would be harder to get than illegal drugs because
1. You cant grow/make your own guns.
2. Most, (not all I know), illegal drugs, cocaine/heroin/meth are never purchased legally from the local drug store. Most illegally possessed guns are purchased legally from the local gun store.
————-
“Lets see: Drugs are illegal, but people still get them.
So if you banned guns, except for law enforcement the following people will have guns:
Criminals
Law Enforcement Officials
Nice!”
Jeeby (16)-
“Keep your guns far from your whiskey.”
Killjoy.
#180
Just to nitpick, google a zipgun. Guns are actually easy to make
#180
Just to nitpick, google a zipgun. Guns are actually easy to make, easier then most drugs such as meth
bi,
Given the data above, you’d assume that Millburn was averaging 60 days on market, and selling for 2% off of OLP. In reality, once you factor in “relisting”, average DOM moves to 131 days, and price moves to 10% off OLP.
Kettle – like I said before, I’m strongly against gun bans, but I agree with schabadoo’s point that the gun/car argument had the opposite effect of the one intended. There are better arguments.
Bath (164)-
My bet is on program trading/profit taking.
Time to buy more of everything.
All disclaimers.
“it’s not how many times you fall flat on your face. it’s how many times you get up.”
luva,
Cubs, since 1908.
The Titanic didn’t destroy the cruise industry. Little solace to those that lost their lives.
bi (178)-
It might also behoove one to learn how to avoid falling on one’s face…over and over again.
Then, again, you’re a Knicks fan.
From MarketWatch:
Moody’s downgrades $33.4 bln of subprime mortgage securities
Moody’s: another $23.8 bln of mortgage securities may be cut
JPMorgan to Layoff Employees in Fixed Income Units, Person Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aquHzVqNODro&refer=home
JPMorgan Chase & Co., the largest U.S. leveraged lender, is laying off as much as 10 percent of the employees in its leveraged finance and structured credit groups, a person familiar with the situation said.
The two units are part of the New York-based firm’s investment banking division, which employed 25,356 people as of June 30, according to the company’s quarterly report.
#146
kettle – in all seriousness, how often do vehicular gas tanks explode in residential neighborhoods?! You’ve lost me a bit with that one. Even if residential gas tank explosions were as common as mosquitos, I don’t think those sorts of arguments function well. It’s sort of similar to an anti-gun advocate telling you not to worry about home invasions because radon and carbon monoxide are such a concern.
From Moody’s:
Moody’s cuts $33.4 bln 2006 subprime first-lien RMBS
Moody’s Investors Service on Thursday slashed the ratings on $33.4 billion of first lien residential subprime mortgage securities issued in 2006 while affirming $258.6 billion of top tier “AAA” rated securities.
Of the $33.4 billion downgraded securities, $3.8 billion remain on review for further downgrade, it said. In addition, it placed another $23.8 billion of subprime first-lien RMBS on review for downgrade, including 48 “Aaa”-rated and 529 “Aa”-rated securities.
If we do a get together some time we can have a gun debate. its more interesting in person anyway ;)
“Investors and fund managers bitten by the collapse in subprime mortgages are now looking for new opportunities to trade bonds linked to traditionally volatile commodity prices and risky emerging markets.”
“While the ensuing credit crunch from the subprime collapse reduced liquidity and rocked markets globally, there are some who see a comeback in packaging commodities and emerging market securities — even though they are viewed as some of the riskiest investments in the marketplace.”
“Businesses are disappearing because there are no deals to manage,” Gloessner said. “People are talking about CDO-like structures on other products.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSN0941774420071011?pageNumber=1
#191,
Just trying to put various potential risks in perspective. i.e you are more likely to be hit by lightning then be involved in a terrorist incident
Was talking with one of the colleague who used to sell software to FSI. He went thru some amount of MBS’s. According to him, most MBS is not very well understood by investing community. Each MBS comes with 50-60 pages worth of documentation, that if you read contains so much of financial engineering. Each MBS is different as every company, issuor etc… packaged things differently, added other derivatives to MBS to make it attractive etc… Basically according to him, no FSI or Investors have good idea about what does the MBS they hold contain. Hence finding impact of RE downturn will be almost impossible to calculate or account for. I think we will keep seeing S&P downgrades for long time coming.
life is about risk management not risk avoidance. management means balancing risk/benefit and avoidance means living in bubble rap and suspending students in 2nd grade for drawing a gun on a piece of paper.
bi
regarding 162 and 169, I hate to use the personal invective, but do you ever grow tired of proving yourself to be an idiot over and over again? Do you utterly lack the capacity to be embarrassed?
“thatBIGwindow Says:
October 11th, 2007 at 3:35 pm
Lets see: Drugs are illegal, but people still get them.
So if you banned guns, except for law enforcement the following people will have guns:
Criminals
Law Enforcement Officials
Nice!”
I take it you think we should legalize drugs then?
vodka (192)-
Remind me to bring my gun to that event.
How do I find historic MLS data (i.e., whether house has been relisted)?
“it’s not how many times you fall flat on your face. it’s how many times you get up.”
If a jockey told me that, I’d be sure not to bet on his horse.
If a money manager told me that, I’d be sure to withdraw all my funds.
If a boxer told me that, I’d know he couldn’t count to three.
bi – you’re a losing proposition.
BC (193)-
“Businesses are disappearing because there are no deals to manage,” Gloessner said. “People are talking about CDO-like structures on other products.”
Can’t wait to see what these Masters of the Universe and their quant lackeys cook up this time around.
Commodity-based CDO’s? OMFG!
I’m digging harder.
clotpoll, my read on recent market is time to sell more on everything except my home.
BTW: for all your oil fans. buffett got out of petrochina stocks – now he is clean of ethnic charge of sudan link
also all disclaimers.
Clotpoll Says:
October 11th, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Bath (164)-
My bet is on program trading/profit taking.
Time to buy more of everything.
All disclaimers.
re 98, I appreciate the snark, but it’s not exactly bolstering the contention that the USA doesn’t have a gun violence problem. It’s a matter of social utility and practical function as applied to statical measurement: Compare the number of licensed drivers to the number of licensed gun owners. Number of motorists and pedestrians killed per mile driven to number of shooters and targets killed per shooting spree ;)
Hell, most commuters spend at least two hours a day in their cars. Do gun aficionadoes spend two hours a day firing their guns? (If so, how will Grim find time to blog?)
“i.e you are more likely to be hit by lightning then be involved in a terrorist incident”
not sure that I agree that gun incidents are as infrequent as gas tank explosions, but I certainly agree with the above proposition, which makes the trillions of dollars we’ve lit on fire as a result of the government enforced national freakout we’ve engaged in since 9/11 so frustrating.
If we get in a gun “debate” at the next meetup, kettle, we’ll be agreeing with each other. But I’ll still be telling you to make better arguments.
bi (203)-
Your call is the clearest “buy” sign I’ve gotten in three months. Thanks.
BTW…Buffett was on the record- multiple times- as stating that no amount of human rights pressure on China/Sudan would influence his holding of PTR.
Don’t look now…but your home is losing value. Daily. Making your mortgage payment is not the same as “averaging down”, either.
Clot – 206
If Cramer agrees with bi, is it the perfect storm?
Clot [202],
I can only imagine. Does the quant, in their monte carlo simulations, assume low volatility, 10-15% appreciation per year and no price declines?
JPMorgan Cuts Jobs:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21252943
#135 skep
Somehow I missed the Cheshire invasion. Just googled it.
Nasty piece of work.
Perfect mess is more like it.
And for good reasons. MBS are carved up into 100 Million dollar pools and assigned a cusip and various tranches based on a variety of assumptions that only a PhD from MIT could understand. I took a couple of TBA MBS in the presecuritized stages and compared the whole loan documents to ensure it was worth teh state 100 million. There was a room full of boxes with the actual home loans brought from the banks with the appraisals attached from all over the place and I am supposed to calculate burn rates, prepayment risk, default risk etc. Then plug it in and adjust for seasoning (age of mortgage), georgraphic area, age of mortgagee and then account for all different types of economic scenarios, hard for me to figure out with 40 hours and a bloomberg and a few custom macros but pension fund managers from a college in Texas or where ever are buying billions of dollars of this on a firm handshake and a good steak from their Merrill Lynch broker.
SG Says:
October 11th, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Was talking with one of the colleague who used to sell software to FSI. He went thru some amount of MBS’s. According to him, most MBS is not very well understood by investing community. Each MBS comes with 50-60 pages worth of documentation, that if you read contains so much of financial engineering. Each MBS is different as every company, issuor etc… packaged things differently, added other derivatives to MBS to make it attractive etc… Basically according to him, no FSI or Investors have good idea about what does the MBS they hold contain. Hence finding impact of RE downturn will be almost impossible to calculate or account for. I think we will keep seeing S&P downgrades for long time coming.
get the umbrella and buckle your seatbelt….here comes the storm.
sl
(it’s raining cats&dogs by me in Bergen Cty)
#172
thanks for correction. i was just passing what some realtor sent me. seems historical data was missing
You are not real.
# 206 NJ patient.
Please, by all means challenge me, a good challenge only encourages thoughtful discourse, and helps (me anyway) explore my own opinions further. :)
BC (208)-
And…calm, reasonable people at the buy and sell buttons.
The quant world is amazing: a gang of high-functioning autistics who presume everyone else in the world is a genius, with the temperament of Gandhi.
Sheesh.
At the meetup, clot can bring his gun, doyle can bring his knife, kettle can bring his re-fried beans and bi can bring his mind.
dangerous implements all.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/10/11/student.arsenal/index.html
That’s a lotta weapons for a 14 year old. mom has some ‘splainin’ to do.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279&hl=en
This is a good movie about the history of money as debt, banking and mortgages. Every kid should watch before they become idiot first time buyers one day
Between yesterday’s posts on immigration and today’s on guns, I’m starting to feel like I’ve wandered into a survivalist’s chat room in Wyoming… Just sayin’.
Agreed
grim, can you point me to how I can locate historic MLS info to determine if house has been relisted?
anotherone,
You’ll need to ask someone with access to the MLS system that the properties were listed on. That usually means a real estate agent. You can also post here, and someone will usually post the data, or you can email me directly and I can try to help.
JB: Are you getting invited to this event?
http://www.realestateconnect.com/ny08/schedule.aspx
Clotpoll, I think your area is Somerset County.
What are people who moved there and commute to New York thinking these days? Are they tired of the super commutes?
Police in Plymouth Township near Philadelphia took the boy into custody after a search of his home turned up a number of weapons, including a 9 mm rifle with a laser scope and dozens of air guns.
Air guns???? so he was going to assault a school with a BB gun arsenal? Clearly the kids mother dropped the ball here but an arsenal of BB guns ( yes he had a real rifle and sounds like he had potential to cause serious harm)?? until there is more info i think this is a concern but overhyped. This appears to be a significant failure of parenting so far. Need more info before we know the real deal.
#219 John
So i am guessing that you wold support Ron Pauls gold standard argument???
JB: Are you getting invited to this event?
I sure hope so.
225#, pretorious,
in most new jersey towns except so called gold coast,
the distance does not matter that much. you can get ny penn station in 1 hour from princeton junction in rush hour. it will take you same time from westfield, it is 1/3 of that distance.
226 kettle
I think you missed the following paragraph:
“Police also found an operational hand grenade, three other hand grenades in the process of construction, bomb-making equipment,”
That could make for a rather unpleasant math class.
“PeaceNow Says:
October 11th, 2007 at 5:49 pm
Between yesterday’s posts on immigration and today’s on guns, I’m starting to feel like I’ve wandered into a survivalist’s chat room in Wyoming… Just sayin’.”
Peace – it’s the old Liberterian-For-Me-But-Not-For-Thee stance
pret (225)-
Most people don’t consider Somerset-NYC that bad. They move here with eyes wide open.
Re 220, 231, I’m afraid of being shot by an undocumented alien with a illegal assault rife.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/10/11/bondage.death.ap/index.html
Reverend Aldridge has company.
Q from a client – anyone’s opinions are appreciated…referral as well [except from bipolar, biseclover & Mitchell]:
Do you know if a mortgage on a second home is typically more expensive than for a first home? Beside countrywide, do you know anyone that is really expeditious with their approval process?
Head of fixed income is the most dangerouse job on the street.
Citi got rig of their heads today.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071011/citigroup_management.html?.v=2
chifi – I got same-day approval from citi, but maybe things are changing there given 236
#230
Indeed a very serious event, just harping on the usual media sensationalism aspect. I am in no way suggesting that this kid could not have been a threat.
Its an interesting contrast though… how many of us built bombs as a teen out of curiosity? I am not excusing this kid, just contrasting the difference between now and 15-25 years ago
Frank (236)
Amazing also that the $800-million dollar man (Pandit) continues to consolidate power, doing nothing but lose money in a medicore $4billion hf with little track record. Recently decided to close up Tribeca (ok no great loss) in order to make Old Lane Citi’s “flagship”… lol
Now he’s running all of CAI and investment banking to boot? Gee, in that kind of organization, you’d expect, oh I don’t know…. Chuck Prince to be CEO!
CHifi
Ask James for my email.
KL
mediocre… as in, my typing :)
Grim,
I’ve been sleeping with a cold Betty by myside since 1967. I keep a loaded clip next to her so I can load & cock faster than one can say “oh shit”.
I once had a break in of 3 Nicaragua thugs, came in, took a few good whacks at me with a bat… Luckily…. cold ol Betty was around.
SAS
why is my comment waiting moderation?
Am I blacklisted these days?
SAS
“..how many of us built bombs as a teen out of curiosity?”
Is this an official survey?
Do you know that Sea Girt just banned lawn beer pong? Can you imagine having nothing better to do than ban beer pong? I’m not a big fan of the sport, but I’m just picturing how many hours the council spent debating the issue.
Who benefits from an open house?
Years ago many villages had ordances prohibiting or discouraging an open house! There is a myraid of reasons why an open house can be very bad for a house that is occupied by an owner! An open house is an invitation for criminals to rob it. An open house also permits any joe or jose to walk in and buy it. While allowing any joe or jose into the neighborhood may seem to be more inclusive (Multicultural)This can in the long run bring down the quality or character of the present neighborhood! For instance anyone can see what has happened to the many fine neighborhoods through the years! By permitting over crowding or packing of the houses and with rezoning so that new comers can afford to buy the houses does destroy the quality of neighborhood life. Remember Manhatten started out as farmland that slowely developed into suburban residences and now look!!!!!!!!!!!!!!