Further to fall

From the Wall Street Journal:

Mind the Gap: Home-Price Downside
By SCOTT PATTERSON
March 13, 2008

The economic balance hangs in large part on how much further home prices will fall. A look at one important measure — the relationship between home prices and household income — suggests we might not even be halfway there.

Over the long run, home prices and income should march along the same path. As households earn more, they can afford to pay for more expensive homes.

But the two can get out of whack. During much of the 1990s, incomes grew faster than home prices. The landscape shifted around 2000. From the start of the decade through the mid-2006 peak, home prices nearly doubled, thanks in part to falling interest rates. Over the same period, income per household rose just 26%, according to Moody’s Economy.com.

In certain states, the disparity was extreme. Seven states, including California, Florida and Arizona, saw annualized growth in home prices outpace income growth by 10 percentage points from 2002 through 2006, according to housing expert Thomas Lawler.

The difference between income growth and home prices has started to narrow. Home prices were down 10% through the fourth quarter from their peak in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index. But to bring prices in line with incomes, they will need to fall further. If incomes continue to grow in the next year as they have in the past decade — probably an optimistic assumption — it would take a 9% to 12% drop in home prices to bring the two measures in line with each other.

In states that saw bigger housing bubbles, the correction will be more severe, says Mr. Lawler.

It is also possible that home prices will overshoot on the downside, just as they did on the upside. Goldman Sachs economists say prices could fall another 15%. Merrill Lynch economists say they could drop another 20% to 30%. Both banks have been more bearish than others on the economy — and so far look correct to have been so pessimistic.

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380 Responses to Further to fall

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    U.S. to Revamp Credit Rules,
    Drawing From Crisis Lessons Paulson Plan Seeks To Tame Excesses In Mortgage Market
    By DAMIAN PALETTA
    March 13, 2008; Page A1

    The nation’s top economic policy makers plan to release today their broadest blueprint yet for avoiding a recurrence of the credit crunch now threatening the economy.

    Their recommendations extend to nearly every niche in the credit markets — from mortgage brokers to the Wall Street firms that package home loans into securities, to the credit-rating firms that assess the risk of those securities, to the regulators who police the system.

    Amid the housing market’s deepening slump, mounting defaults by cash-strapped homeowners and an upswing in foreclosures have made investors wary of mortgage-linked securities and have made those securities increasingly difficult to value and trade. That’s led to turmoil in global financial markets.

    “We aren’t singling out any group of market participants, because…there were mistakes made by all,” including regulators, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in an interview yesterday, a day in which the stock market’s euphoria over the Federal Reserve’s latest initiative to free up the flow of credit gave way to some caution.

    “Regulation needs to catch up with innovation and help restore investor confidence,” Mr. Paulson is planning to say today in a speech at the National Press Club, “but not go so far as to create new problems, make our markets less efficient or cut off credit to those who need it.”

    Mr. Paulson told The Wall Street Journal that the recommendations of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, which he leads, include strengthening state and federal oversight of mortgage lenders and brokers. The group will also recommend implementing what he termed “strong nationwide licensing standards” for mortgage brokers, a move that will probably require legislation.

    The group also will propose directing credit-rating firms and regulators to differentiate between ratings on complex structured products and conventional bonds. In addition, it wants rating firms to disclose conflicts of interest and details of their reviews and to heighten scrutiny of outfits that originate loans that are enveloped by various securities.

    Another recommendation from the panel is to push issuers of mortgage-backed securities to disclose more about “the level and scope of due diligence” and about the underlying assets of the securities. The panel is also seeking disclosure of whether “issuers have shopped for ratings” — that is, have had to go to more than one credit-rating firm before getting the triple-A stamp of approval.

    The aim is to alter rules and incentives that led to excesses that are now painfully evident: years of lending and investing at prices that didn’t fully recognize the risks by institutions with inadequate capital cushions, the development of financial instruments so complex that even the most sophisticated investors didn’t understand them, and a deterioration in lending standards.

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Carlyle Capital Nears Collapse as Rescue Talks Fail

    Carlyle Group’s mortgage-bond fund moved a step closer to collapse after failing to reach an agreement with lenders who demanded more than $400 million to meet margin calls.

    Concern about the fate of Carlyle Capital Corp., which began to buckle a week ago from the strain of tumbling home-loan assets, helped push the dollar to a 12-year low against the yen today. The fund said in a statement that it defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt as of yesterday. Lenders will “promptly” take over all of its remaining assets and any remaining debt is expected “soon” to go into default, Carlyle Capital said.

    Carlyle Capital plunged as much as 70 percent in Amsterdam trading. Carlyle Group, co-founded by David Rubenstein, tapped public markets for $300 million in July to fuel the fund just as rising foreclosures caused credit markets to seize up. In the past month, at least a dozen funds have closed, sold assets or sought fresh capital as banks tightened lending standards.

    “If Carlyle’s lenders want their money right away, they’ll liquidate the fund,” said Hank Calenti, a London-based analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “That will put pressure on already stressed credit markets.”

  3. grim says:

    From BusinessWeek:

    Lenders Face Still More Misery

    Investors breathed a sigh of relief on Mar. 11 when the Federal Reserve offered to lend troubled banks as much as $200 billion in Treasuries. Still, the Fed’s lifeline won’t fix the root of the housing market’s problems—falling prices and rising defaults. So it is unlikely to save mortgage lenders from the next wave of losses, those buried deep in the minutiae of balance sheets.

    A closer look at the books of big lenders reveals several weak spots that haven’t yet shown up in the financial results. At many banks, bad loans are piling up faster than the amount of money they’re setting aside to cover them. Meanwhile, housing lenders booked income on vulnerable exotic loans and mortgage securities before they collected the money—paper gains that may be reversed through writedowns. Plus the values of some troubled loans, which have been trimmed modestly so far and shown up in previous losses, could still be overstated.

    Why haven’t these items hit lenders’ bottom lines? Largely because of the ambiguity and complexities of the accounting rules. Banks have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to reporting the profits and values of complex loans and securities. For one thing, their earnings can far exceed the amount of cash coming in the door. At the same time, their losses aren’t always based on hard numbers but rather on debatable judgment calls. With the housing market showing no signs of recovery anytime soon, it’s becoming clear that some of their assumptions have been overly optimistic.

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Bernanke Playbook Gives Hints on Fed’s Next Moves: Mark Gilbert

    Want the inside skinny on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s next moves as he battles to avert recession, bank bankruptcies and the collapse of capitalism? His detailed playbook is freely available from the Fed’s Web site.

    In November 2002, when Bernanke was merely a Fed governor, he gave a speech about “Deflation: Making Sure `It’ Doesn’t Happen Here.” More than five years on, the text provides a step- by-step guide to the Fed’s reaction to the current credit crisis, and hints at the tricks left up the central bank’s sleeve.

    The speech is relevant even though two of its premises — a general decline in consumer prices and a benchmark central-bank rate that’s close to zero — don’t currently apply to the U.S. experience. Bernanke detailed the Fed’s likely response once the blunt instrument of cutting borrowing costs had lost its potency to revive the economy — which is exactly the situation the central bank finds itself in now.

    “When inflation is already low and the fundamentals of the economy suddenly deteriorate, the central bank should act more preemptively and more aggressively than usual in cutting rates,” Bernanke said. “By moving decisively and early, the Fed may be able to prevent the economy slipping into deflation.”

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Carlyle Capital Nears Collapse
    As Accord Can’t Be Reached
    By PETER LATTMAN
    March 13, 2008; Page C2

    The credit crisis has claimed another victim.

    Carlyle Capital Corp. said late Wednesday it expects its lenders will seize its assets, causing the likely liquidation of the fund, which until recently owned $21.7 billion in mortgage securities.

    “Although it has been working diligently with its lenders, the Company has not been able to reach a mutually beneficial agreement to stabilize its financing,” the fund said in a statement.

    The fund’s likely collapse would be a major black eye for Carlyle Group, the powerful Washington-based private-equity firm whose executives own 15% of the fund.

    The news comes just one week after Carlyle Group began pleading with some of the world’s largest banks to hold off on margin calls and the liquidation of its mortgage assets. Several of the lenders, led by Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ignored Carlyle’s request. Wednesday night, they began selling the fund’s assets, which were committed as collateral against huge borrowings. By Monday, dealers had sold $5.7 billion of the fund’s assets.

    The fund said that through yesterday it had defaulted on approximately $16.6 billion of its loans, and expects to default on the rest.

    Other dealers that sold Carlyle Capital’s collateral included Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos., according to people familiar with the fund.

    The fund’s collapse shows how Wall Street’s biggest players have begun playing hardball with some of their best clients. And they reveal how jittery banks have become about their own loan exposures. In the case of Carlyle, 12 banks had lent the fund about $21 billion, or $20 for every dollar of initial capital.

    It also illustrates how the credit crunch has moved far beyond subprime mortgages. Carlyle Capital’s portfolio consisted exclusively of AAA-rated mortgage backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are considered to have the implied guarantee of the U.S. government and pay par at maturity.

  6. grim says:

    From CNN/Money:

    The next shoe to drop in housing

    The credit crunch has finally hit the traditional mortgage market.

    Investors are now shunning mortgage-backed securities issued by government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been critical in keeping the real estate market from completely falling apart.

    Some fear this development will make it harder for people, even those with strong credit histories, to get a home loan.

    “Even if you have good credit, you don’t know if they are going to give you a loan or not,” said Joseph Mason, a senior fellow at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

    And for those who can still get a loan, the tremors in the mortgage-backed securities market has made loans more expensive for borrowers. As the prices of mortgage-backed securities have fallen, their yields have risen, leading to higher mortgage rates.

    “The cost of mortgage financing has increased dramatically and it couldn’t come at a worse time,” said Tom LaMalfa, managing director of Wholesale Access, a mortgage research firm. “We’re going to see a further diminishment of available mortgage money.”

  7. grim says:

    (cont)

    Wholesale Access has estimated that all these changes mean 30% to 40% of borrowers who could have qualified for a conventional mortgage a year ago can no longer do so.

    Fannie and Freddie are demanding higher credit scores and charging higher rates for those who don’t have them. Until recently, a borrower with a 620 score might pay the same as one with a 680 score, said Victoria Bingham, chief executive with Pacific Rim Mortgage in Tigard, Ore.

    But now that person might have to pay a half percentage point more. With today’s rates, that translates into 6.75% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage instead of 6.25%, or $74 more a month on a $225,000 loan, typical for her client base.

    Borrowers must also put more money down, especially if they don’t have stellar credit. For instance, those with down payments of less than 5% need a credit score of at least 680, said Steven Plaisance, executive vice president of Arvest Mortgage Co. in Tulsa, Ok. Previously, he could make loans to people without big down payments if they had other strong points, such as stable employment.

    Experts said they don’t think traditional mortgages will disappear. But if they are harder to get, it will take longer for the housing market to recover as a glut of unsold houses could lead to even more declines in real estate values.

    “Fewer buyers who can come into the market mean more homes on the market,” LaMalfa said. “The absence of an increase in demand will put further pressure on prices.”

  8. grim says:

    From the Record:

    N.J. faces new hurdle in tighter EPA smog rule

    The Bush administration tightened clean-air standards for smog-forming ozone on Wednesday, leaving all of New Jersey once again in violation of federal health standards.

    It could be more than a decade before the state meets the limits, the Environmental Protection Agency said. And that may only happen, experts in New Jersey added, with a drastic push to get more commuters out of their cars and into mass transit.

    Nonetheless, the state’s environmental commissioner complained the EPA should have adopted even tougher rules.

    “I don’t think the decision from EPA was about how to clean up the air,” Commissioner Lisa Jackson said. “It’s disappointing because, while it’s a step in the right direction which is protective of health, they stopped short of following their own scientists’ advice.”

    The federal agency lowered the limit for ground-level ozone in the atmosphere from 80 parts per billion to 75, quadrupling the number of counties in the United States that fail the standard.

    Jackson, the environment commissioner, said the state could have met the old standard by the federal government’s 2010 deadline. It will be hard to meet the new goal, however, without a crackdown on out-of-state power plants that send smog-forming pollutants drifting into the Garden State.

    Others, however, said New Jersey’s bigger problem may be in-state drivers whose vehicles account for a large share of the pollution problem. Even as car exhaust has gotten cleaner over the years, emissions have risen because more people are living farther from work and traveling longer on the state’s roads.

    “We’ve gone after sewer plants, we’ve gone after smokestacks,” said Jeff Tittel of the state Sierra Club. “It’s in the area of transportation and land use where we need to do the most.”

  9. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Retail vacancy rates on the rise

    The Levitz and Rag Shop bankruptcies, and the CompUSA store closings, helped push the North Jersey retail vacancy rate to its highest level since 1998, according to a real estate firm that has tracked vacancy rates for 18 years.

    R.J. Brunelli & Co. of Old Bridge reported Wednesday that the vacancy rate as of January was 3.6 percent, up from 2.9 percent a year ago. The survey found 1 million square feet of empty retail space in the 27.5 million square feet of retail space.

    North Jersey still has one of the most robust retail real estate markets in the country, the firm’s president said, but the numbers indicate a softening, particularly in demand for vacant furniture stores.

    A retail vacancy rate of below 5 percent is considered very healthy, but North Jersey landlords and developers have grown used to rates below 3 percent. The national vacancy rate is 10.2 percent, according to real estate investment firm Marcus & Millichap. The last time R.J. Brunelli recorded an overall rate above 5 percent for North Jersey was 1997.

  10. grim says:

    From the AP:

    Foreclosure Activity Rises in February

    Nearly 60 percent more U.S. homes faced foreclosure in February than in the same month last year, with Nevada, California and Florida showing the highest foreclosure rates, a research firm said Wednesday.

    A total of 223,651 homes across the nation received at least one notice from lenders last month related to overdue payments, up 59.8 percent from 139,922 a year earlier, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc.

    Nearly half of the homes on the most recent list had slipped into default for the first time.

    Nevada had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate, with one in every 165 households receiving at least one foreclosure-related notice. It had 6,167 properties facing foreclosure, a 68 percent increase from a year earlier and up 1 percent from January, RealtyTrac said.

    Most of the troubled properties were located in California, Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio — states where home prices have plunged as the housing boom went bust.

    The overall U.S. foreclosure rate last month was one filing for every 557 homes.

    February’s total represents a 4 percent dip from January, but the decline was just a seasonal blip, said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s vice president of marketing.

    “We seem to be settling in at a new plateau in terms of monthly activity, but it’s a much higher plateau than we were at a year ago,” he said.

    February marked the 26th consecutive month with a national year-over-year increase in foreclosure-related filings.

    Meanwhile, the number of foreclosed properties that didn’t sell at auction and ended up going back to lenders soared more than 110 percent last month versus February 2007, RealtyTrac said.

    Last month, some 46,508 properties were repossessed by lenders, up from 22,114 a year earlier.

  11. grim says:

    From the RealtyTrac ForeclosurePulse blog:

    Feb. Foreclosure Report: Are We at Bottom Yet?

    February foreclosure activity was down 4 percent from the previous month but still up 57 percent from February 2007, according to the latest RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. So does the monthly decrease mean we’ve hit a ceiling of sorts for this cycle in terms of foreclosures?

    Probably not.

    The February monthly decrease is more likely a seasonal decrease helped along by a shorter-than-average month and the fact that January’s numbers are often padded with some pent-up foreclosure activity from the holiday season. That premise is supported by looking at the numbers in February 2007, when U.S. foreclosure activity was down 6 percent from January. Foreclosure activity continued to climb for the remainder of that year.

    The more important indicator is the year-over-year increase, which has been between 50 percent and 60 percent for both January and February. If you look back at the RealtyTrac monthly reports, activity has increased on a year-over-year basis every month since January 2006, the first month that YOY stats were available.

  12. bairen says:

    I wonder if any of those geniuses at The Carlyle Group is a refugee from Long Term Capital.

  13. bairen says:

    #6 & #7

    These reforms are about 5 years too late.

    What’s going to cost the US economy more, Iraq or the housing collapse?

  14. Clotpoll says:

    Buddy of mine heading to Ft. Lauderdale this AM to close on a waterfront home he recently picked up for a song.

    He spent November scouring waterfront areas from South Beach to West Palm. He would’ve waited even longer but fell in love with the FtL house. Says they’re nowhere near the bottom there but sees things dropping fast. Lenders have redlined anything high-rise or in known foreclosure clusters.

  15. SG says:


    HILLSBORO: Officials call state’s COAH calculations unfair

    By PAMELA SROKA-HOLZMANN
    STAFF WRITER

    Township officials blasted the state’s proposed affordable housing rules Tuesday, stating the measure “unfairly burdens” the township beyond what should be a “fair requirement.”

    The Council on Affordable Housing announced its new rules for municipalities to deal with state-mandated affordable housing requirements in January — after lawsuits from developers and housing advocates allowed the previous rules to be
    overturned. The new rules call for Hillsborough to add 580 new homes by 2018.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    How’d you like to be the margin clerk who’s grinding out a billion or two at a time?

    Exciting!

  17. SG says:


    Princeton council members gripe about COAH

    BY ROBERT STERN

    PRINCETON BOROUGH — Frustrations over ever-shifting state regulations on affordable housing led two members of the borough council last night to publicly raise the possibility of ending the borough’s participation in the state Council on Affordable Housing, or COAH.

    “The land here is very expensive,” Councilman Roger Martindell said. “So, to have an affordable-housing unit, we’re not building in a cornfield. It’s fabulously expensive.”

  18. SG says:


    Environmentalists criticize government reports on NJ housing

    TRENTON, N.J. – Environmentalists blasted draft housing reports Wednesday, accusing the Corzine administration of promoting sprawl by trying to relax rules governing development throughout New Jersey.

    The environmental groups accused the administration of stacking government committees looking into housing and land use with people from the building and real estate trades.

    “You basically have builders and people who work for builders … writing the environmental rules for the state of New Jersey,” said Jeff Tittel, executive director of the state Sierra Club. “This proposal has really been the wish list for the builders over the past 20 years in New Jersey, many of the things that could not get passed or have been stopped because of public opinion and outrage.”

  19. Clotpoll says:

    A few mortgage repricings hit the office yesterday, late.

    Somewhat better rates; nothing to write home about. Looks like a couple of lenders are willing to bend a little to capture market share.

  20. Clotpoll says:

    Call me an old geezer, but Spitzer’s wife ain’t bad. Way over his pay grade.

    What a jerk.

  21. thatBIGwindow says:

    Well here it is…house across the street from me is now bank owned. On the market for $460,000. No way it will ever sell for 460k. I think $360,000 would be a fair price. Short sale?

  22. bairen says:

    #16 I can imagine how busy it’s going to be for fixed income sales assistants, the repo desk, and the margin back office crew.

    Got popcorn
    (swiped that from Neil on thehousingbubbleblog)

  23. bairen says:

    #20

    Sptizer’s wife is way too good looking for him. He looks like a bald cave man.

  24. grim says:

    Well here it is…house across the street from me is now bank owned.

    The house two doors up from me is just about ready to fall into foreclosure. A few months more and I’m sure I’ll be posting a picture of the Sheriff Sale notice on the front door.

    Listed under the purchase price, short sale. They have little to no chance of finding a taker at the current price.

  25. thatBIGwindow says:

    #25 grim: this brings another issue: house falls into foreclosure and also falls into disrepair and could be subject to vandals. Now that it is coming to my block, it will be interesting seeing a first hand account of this. No town is really immune to this…

  26. grim says:

    The foreclosure up the block saw some of that. When the renters left, they left an incredible mess. Piles of junk, boxes, and broken furniture on the street.

    A little rain and snow, and we had our own local dump. It was at least two weeks before the town came and hauled the trash away.

    I agree with vandalism, but from a different angle. Don’t discount the possibility a distressed property investor lobs a brick through a window or “tags” a front door in an attempt to get the town to pressure the bank to sell.

  27. thatBIGwindow says:

    Re: #27

    In the late 1980s in “Prestigious River Edge” there was a really nice split level down the street from my mothers house. A young couple had bought it and put lots of $$$$ into it. The husband unfortunately passed away suddenly, the wife immediately left the house and I am not sure what happened but it was abandoned for a few years. When it finally on the market the inside of the house was completely trashed. All the kitchen cabinets were gone, holes in the walls, grafitti everywhere..a real mess. This was in River Edge too…

  28. Clotpoll says:

    BIG (26)-

    Jimmy the lock, open the house up and throw a foreclosure fiesta. Good times!

  29. Clotpoll says:

    grim (27)-

    Easier for a motivated investor to try to reach the bank and buy the property in the time between repossession and re-introduction into the market as REO. Of course, a little strategic vandalism could help things along…

  30. thatBIGwindow says:

    #29 Clotpoll: Residents are still there…I imagine they will stay for as long as they can.

  31. BC Bob says:

    “The nation’s top economic policy makers plan to release today their broadest blueprint yet for avoiding a recurrence of the credit crunch now threatening the economy.”

    [1],

    The same dolts that got us into the mess are now responsible for a major revamp? That’s would be comprable to the same geniuses, S&P/Moody’s, who originally stamped Ambac AAA, maintaining that rating after a $1.5 B infusion? OOPS, done.

  32. R Patrick says:

    27 and of course there is always Arson if the house is right for a duplex/”value is in the land”

    Or just bored kids with some gas from the lawnmower and a rag.

  33. R Patrick says:

    So we have this speech from Bernake about deflation, does anyone have a link to it?

    And secondly as just a regular dude how does deflation affect me? Any links to information that would explain this since it seems it would be positive for many people here.

  34. BC Bob says:

    Clot [29],

    Sounds like a great idea for the next NJ Vulture’s Fund get together, a foreclosure fiesta. Pick any town, name your street.

  35. thatBIGwindow says:

    #33: the house is in very good condition. The previous owners were both doctors and completely gutted the 1920s colonial and put in new everything. Area isnt zoned for a duplex. All single family houses.

  36. BC Bob says:

    “And secondly as just a regular dude how does deflation affect me?”

    R [34],

    Depends on where you sit, long or short?

  37. BC Bob says:

    Is there anybody, anybody, any central bank, in the whole wide world that will stand up and state that I’m buying dollars? Does the whole system crash first?

  38. Clotpoll says:

    BIG (31)-

    The bank may have arranged to rent it to them. Better to have occupants than hold it vacant.

  39. BC Bob says:

    Tonto, HI-YO and HI-HO.

  40. Clotpoll says:

    BC (35)-

    I’ve got a cherry little vacant short sale in Clinton: 600′ deck and a gunite pool. Looks about four beer balls and a couple of Emperors’ Club VIP gals short of a major bash.

  41. Clotpoll says:

    BC (40)-

    SDS doesn’t mean the same thing today that it meant in 1969…

    Blood will run in the gutters today. Yum!

  42. BC Bob says:

    Clot [41],

    If it comes with a silo, I’m buying.

  43. BC Bob says:

    Clot,

    Gartman on fast money tonight and squawk tomorrow. Fasten your seat belts.

  44. Clotpoll says:

    BC (44)-

    He’ll have a hard time topping his last appearance on Squawk.

    “Bergabe” is an all-time classic.

  45. BC Bob says:

    $175B defecit for the month of Feb. I guess we can blame it on leap year. Very troubling, tax receipts down 12%, yoy.

  46. BC Bob says:

    “Bergabe” is an all-time classic.

    Clot,

    Yeah, that’s Lake Placid, 1980.

    Check your email.

  47. RentininNJ says:

    Gold hits $1,000

  48. BC Bob says:

    1,000 touched.

  49. RentininNJ says:

    Gold $1,000 gets lifted

  50. BC Bob says:

    Renting,

    Looks like an error. The print has been taken down. I have 999.40 [April] as the high, for now.

  51. Secondary Market says:

    So after a heavy push of pro housing Realtor rhetoric in Philadelphia Magazine, two reports have been published on year over year change in the Philly Market. One for the city proper and the other for the “Main Line” (equivalent to Bergen County prestige).
    Although most areas show a drop from 06 averages, gains are nominal at best. And they blamed Matt Lauer for a declining housing market.
    Shout out to NJPatient as he’s the other relo to PA.

    http://www.phillymag.com/philly/real_estate_philadelphia

    http://www.phillymag.com/philly/real_estate_main_line

  52. Cindy says:

    I have been trying to figure out how a weak dollar helps us – since the powers that be are so h*ll bent on having it that way. Are the boat loads from China that used to go back empty now carrying cargo? Are we able to compete in the world market now on some level? Someone must have reasoned through this. It seems like there must be some benefit to letting the dollar slide…is there?

  53. Secondary Market says:

    Grim, a little help on #52. In mod..
    Thanks.

  54. BC Bob says:

    Cindy,

    A weak dollar robs you blind.

  55. grim says:

    I need to fast track my PA real estate license..

  56. grim says:

    BC,

    Perhaps a replay of the crude $100/bbl trade?

    Somebody has got to touch it first, but once touched, that psychological barrier is removed. So why not egg it on?

  57. Sean says:

    re: (28) Did you say late eighties?
    Man I do remember a kick a..s..s party house in River Edge.

    Something like this?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yxr-o68LE9k

  58. Clotpoll says:

    grim (57)-

    Big difference between oil/gold: gold @ $1,000 is still ridiculously underpriced.

  59. Cindy says:

    Just read that David Carr (old Fresno State QB) is headed to the Giants. (Yes I did have the pleasure of watching him play in his Hayday.) He did well by us but had a great offensive line. He has had nothing but trouble since…he comes to you as a back-up QB – pretty worse for the wear.

  60. Secondary Market says:

    #56,
    i hear that brother! the spin is pretty laughable, especially since good ol’ Richie Sambora just bought a 3 bedroom for 3.5mm at 2 liberty place.

  61. BC Bob says:

    JB [57],

    I expect it to fail a few times before it settles over 1,000. At that time, the level may become major support.

    All disclaimers.

  62. rhymingrealtor says:

    For one thing, their earnings can far exceed the amount of cash coming in the door.

    I have been trying for years to do that.

    KL

  63. make money says:

    Clot,20

    You old geezer you!

  64. rhymingrealtor says:

    JB,

    Did you do the NY State license when you got NJ- no class required if you just finished your NJ.

    KL

  65. grim says:

    No I didn’t, I was under the impression I needed to take the classes there as well.

    jb

  66. tim says:

    I have been keeping an eye on the GSMLS, and the last 2 days, it has been adding a 100 homes every 6 hours. Anyone else notice that? If i remember right the very Peak was 36k last year, were at 33,664 and its only midddle of march.

  67. 3b says:

    #28 tbw: I am sure we will see more of this. The house next to me has been vacant since August, owneres way over paid, put money into it, and than relocated in the summer.

    They have been dropping the price slowly, and still nothing, still way over priced. If they sold at current asking price, they would be in the hole for around 50K or more.

    But no way they will sell at current asking. I heard through the grapevine that they are desperate.

    Oh by the way they bough with a no money down I/O loan, found that out from the previous owners.

  68. Dman says:

    And the Mistress….

    http://tinyurl.com/2qhs86

    These things are never worth it.

    Clotpoll Says:

    Call me an old geezer, but Spitzer’s wife ain’t bad. Way over his pay grade.

    What a jerk.

  69. BC Bob says:

    “Retail sales in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in February, indicating that declines in payrolls and home values and a surge in energy costs have tipped the economy into a recession.”

    “Households are reacting to the loss in wealth by cutting back on spending, and lenders are reacting to the loss in their investments by cutting back on credit,” Kevin Logan, a senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York, said before the report. “Falling home prices are taking the economy into a recession.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOcvfZQ8RbdA&refer=home

  70. grim says:

    Tim,

    January thru February marks the annual trough in inventory. Annual inventory changes tend to follow the same general patterns, trough in January-February, peak in the June-September period. Growth however, is variable, where the curve sits in relation to prior years does shift.

    Here is a good illustration of the trend:

    http://www.njrereport.com/images/feb08_salesinv.gif

    Based on past trends, I’d expect Northern NJ (as measured by GSMLS) inventory to move upwards from the 21,000-22,000 area to somewhere around the 26,000-27,000 area this Summer. This means, roughly, adding about 35 homes to the existing inventory a day in addition to the homes needed to replace the sold/withdrawn properties.

    Don’t believe any hype you hear about inventory levels falling, it simply isn’t true. On a YOY basis, inventory is still growing. If anything, it is slowly picking up pace again.

    http://www.njrereport.com/images/feb08_invpace.gif

    Too often, agents don’t take into account the seasonal nature of inventory levels. So while inventory levels were falling on a month over month basis, we still had considerably more inventory than we did in the prior year. All to easy to miss the big picture here.

  71. make money says:

    BC #70

    The audacity to even include this line in the above report is dispicable.

    Retail sales were up 2.6% compared with a year earlier in nominal terms

  72. grim says:

    What was the gain in real terms, ex. gasoline sales? Or should I say, loss?

    If the BLS can play that game with inflation, I can play it with retail.

  73. BC Bob says:

    Are Geologist’s looking for a job on WS?

    “More Than MBAs”

    “Geologists’ pay tops the average for new U.S. MBAs, which, according to an August 2007 survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers, was $86,696. Those with mining skills are also catching up with Harvard University MBAs, whose average starting salary rose 15 percent over three years to $115,000 in 2007, according to the university. Tuition for the two-year program is $87,600.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=avjraURjQcYM&refer=home

  74. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Weak U.S. Retail Sales
    Boost Recession Fears
    Import Prices Rise; Jobless Claims Flat
    By JEFF BATER and BRIAN BLACKSTONE
    March 13, 2008 9:10 a.m.

    WASHINGTON — U.S. retail sales took an unexpected tumble during February, providing a second unnerving report in a week of economic trouble and raising recession fears.

    Meanwhile, U.S. import prices rose sharply last month when volatile oil prices were excluded, suggesting that the steady rise in energy and food prices as well as the weak dollar are feeding more broadly into the prices of other goods.

    Retail sales decreased by 0.6%, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Sales went up a revised 0.4% in January. Sales that month were originally seen rising 0.3%. Sales in December dropped 0.7%.

    Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 0.1% increase in February retail sales.

  75. BC Bob says:

    JB [74],

    Exactly.

  76. grim says:

    BC,

    Speaking of Geologists.

    I hear that Akademia Górniczo-Hutnicza (AGH or Ahh-Geh-Hah for short), the University of Mining and Metallurgy, in Krakow is absolutely booming.

    Take a peek at the curriculum:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AGH_University_of_Science_and_Technology

    I’m just down the road from their campus.

  77. Sean says:

    Can anyone find a long term chart on divorce filings in NJ? That will make a great inverse index to compare against housing prices.

  78. lostinny says:

    Clot, Grim, KL-
    Are any of you licensed in NY?

  79. BC Bob says:

    JB [78],

    Forget about derivatives, enroll.

  80. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Paulson: Financial firms should revisit dividend policies

    Paulson: Complexity of some financial products key problem

    Paulson calls for overhaul of mortgage derivative market

    Paulson threatens stronger oversight of credit rating firms

    Paulson: Surviving period of market turmoil is top priority

    Paulson: ‘No silver bullet’ to end excesses on Wall Street

  81. BC Bob says:

    OOPS, I take that back. Over 1,000.

  82. RentininNJ says:

    OOPS, I take that back. Over 1,000.

    Just saw it….$1,000.80

  83. BC Bob says:

    [82],

    Surviving is top priority? Yikes.

  84. Rich In NNJ says:

    Clot (20),

    Call me an old geezer, but Spitzer’s wife ain’t bad.

    I think she looks like an aged Jennifer Aniston.

  85. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    U.S. Home Foreclosures Rise 60% in February as Mortgages Reset

    U.S. home foreclosure filings jumped 60 percent and bank repossessions more than doubled in February as rates on adjustable mortgages rose and property owners were unable to sell or refinance amid falling prices.

    More than 223,000 properties were in some stage of default, or 1 in every 557 U.S. households, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. said today in a statement. Nevada, California and Florida recorded the highest state foreclosure rates.

    “We’re in a vicious cycle,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of RealtyTrac, a seller of foreclosure data. “We’ve got depreciating home values and loans resetting at an outstanding volume just as banks are retrenching. Even people who want to buy a home now are having trouble getting a mortgage.”

    About $460 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to reset this year and another $420 billion will rise in 2011, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc. Homeowners faced higher payments as fourth-quarter home prices fell 8.9 percent, the biggest drop in 20 years as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index.

    Filings are likely to be “explosive” in May and June as more payments jump, after remaining at current levels this month and next, Sharga said in an interview. There may be between 750,000 and 1 million bank repossessions in 2008, he said. Bank seizures rose 110 percent in February from a year ago, he said.

  86. grim says:

    “Explosive”

    It appears that the real crisis here is a clear lack of adjectives. We’ve used up all the good ones, and we’re quickly using up the few that remain.

    We’re going to need to start making up words to accurately describe this downturn.

  87. HEHEHE says:

    Well now that Bergabe’s and the PPT’s latest move has met abject failure one has to ask what is next? He’ll cut the rates next week pretty much assuring gold stays over 1000 and Oil stays above 100?

  88. HEHEHE says:

    “Paulson threatens stronger oversight of credit rating firms”

    Gimme a break Hanky Panky, they pretty much did whatever you told them re Ambac and Mbia.

  89. Sapiens says:

    Darn you guys are fast: Gold at $1K.

    Got one for you, Diesel over $4.00 Ouch!

  90. BC Bob says:

    he [89],

    BSC takes out Tuesday’s low, the steroid injection fails. What now?

  91. Mitchell says:

    Housing:
    I don’t think anyone can accurately predict where the bottom is especially when there is a recession looming overhead but I feel a 15-20% drop and things should start leveling out.

    Spitzer’s
    As for Spitzer’s women. Not impressed. Plenty of them around just go to any college or bar and there are tons of them at least when I was in my early 20’s there were. All you need to be is fun to be around and they will come to you free of charge. Not even the price of a beer. If she costs more than 2 beers send her packing.

    Whomever is spending $4300.00 for a date needs to buy a personality.

  92. Rich In NNJ says:

    From MarketWatch

    SUBPRIME TODAY

    Carlyle Capital on verge of collapse after talks fail
    Dollar breaches 100-yen level
    U.S. foreclosures off 4% from January, up 60% from year ago
    Drake mulls options after hedge fund losses
    J.P. Morgan CEO says subprime cleanup about halfway done
    Paulson says U.S. to revamp credit rules
    Credit crunch hits Madison Dearborn
    WaMu stakeholder wants piece of any capital move
    UniCredit cannot confirm 2008 targets-CEO
    Mack faces challenge by activists

    Details to headlines at link above

  93. HEHEHE says:

    When it comes to Spitzer’s women, I quote the words of the great thespian Scott Baio in his timeless role as Chachi Arcolla, “A Wha, Wha, Wha!”

  94. rhymingrealtor says:

    I have only recently ( last 2 years ) start watching the stock market. I’ve noticed it is alot like my weight, either testing new highs or lows!

    KL

  95. Rich In NNJ says:

    It’s Tuesday again?

    From MarketWatch

    Bear shares sink as concerns about mortgages weigh

    Shares of Wall Street firm Bear Stearns fell more than 10% Thursday as concerns about its mortgage holdings and its ability to finance them and its dealings with counterparties grew. Bear share fell 13.4% to $53.34 Thursday. There was no company specific news, but investors are nervous about margin calls on mortgage backed securities hitting several firms, most notably Carlyle Capital Corp and Thornburg Mortgage. Bear is a creditor of Carlyle, which is near collapse and having its assets, primarily AAA rated mortgages from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, seized by creditors.

  96. grim says:

    The solution is clearly a Super – SIV TAF.

  97. mark says:

    and bonnie coleman and ron rice want the taxpayers of nj to bail out the low lifes.

  98. kettle1 says:

    HEHE

    if bergabe makes a rate cute around the start of winter heating season this year (fall 08) then look for a large jump in oil prices, we will have a double wammy of weakening dollar and spiking demand!

  99. grim says:

    mark,

    The last time the legislators mucked with the lending market, the lenders balked and pulled out of the state. The state was forced to re-neg on the changes, and they rescinded the legislation.

    What is worse? Lax regulation of lenders, or having no lenders to regulate.

    Either way the outcome is painful.

  100. make money says:

    Whomever is spending $4300.00 for a date needs to buy a personality.

    Mitch,

    That line should say whomever is spending $4300.00 for a date is clearly the victim of hyperinfation and/or larceny.

    I know someone who gets a “Chinese” massage every morning for $50.00. They massause girl comes to his place at 7:30AM every morning.

    Now that’s good living.

  101. kettle1 says:

    SO it looks like maybe i should be looking into the mining field instead of the financial field for career advancement…… (from BC # 75. Jmac, Syb what do say lets all go into mining

  102. SG says:

    Job front: My wife is recruiter for IT jobs for many WS firms. Was looking over some of the resume she got recently. Lot of VP, Director level folks applying for much lower position jobs like Manager, Team Lead. Lot of layoff happening in places like Lehman. Also many folks don’t even want to talk to Citi for good time period contracts.

    Seems like many folks are feeling scared on Job Security front. I dont see any confidence returning back to buy those million dollar homes in BC.

  103. Jay says:

    Merrill Lynch: Recession to Be Worst Since 1970s

    Mr. Rosenberg says in a note to clients that the current downturn is hitting more broadly than the credit crunch and real estate meltdown in the 1990-91 recession, which lasted eight months (as did the mild 2001 contraction). Home prices today are falling in 85% of the country vs. 40% during that period, he notes. When prices hit bottom in 1992, the inventory of new and existing homes for sale was at 7 months of supply. Now it’s at 10 months’ supply “with no improvement in sight,” says Mr. Rosenberg, who was among the first economists to forecast a 2008 recession. He sees average prices nationwide dropping 20% to 30% more, on top of the 11% decline since the 2006 peak.

    The mid-1970s recession “not only saw a sharp and sustained rise in food and energy prices, as is the case today, but also saw a very similar consumer balance sheet squeeze from a simultaneous deflation in residential real estate and equity assets, which never happened in the 2001 recession, the 1990-91 recession or the recessions of the early 1980s for that matter,” he writes. “The last time we had more than one quarter of outright contraction in the value of both asset classes on the household balance sheet was in the 1973-75 recession.”

    http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/03/11/merrill-lynch-recession-to-be-worst-since-1970s/

  104. kettle1 says:

    Someone was asking how to find mortgage records for essex county, BC Bob maybe? Well here is a link to the Essex County register

    http://www.essexregister.com/directory.html

    this is where you would look. It appears that they have the documnets computerized at the local office.

  105. x-underwriter says:

    Mitchell Says:
    All you need to be is fun to be around and they will come to you free of charge

    Not if you look like Spitzer

  106. grim says:

    I was getting pitched quite a few consulting gigs for the financials last year. Recently inquired about some of projects I was pitched (I actually was interested in a handful of these), most of the positions were axed or had their hours reduced significantly (or capped). Bulk of these were in compliance and reporting, if that means anything.

  107. kettle1 says:

    contact info for the registers office

    Essex County Register
    of Deeds & Mortgages
    Hall of Records
    Newark, NJ 07102

  108. grim says:

    Another interesting anecdote from the IT consulting position. 2007 was the year of ERP-gig pitches for me. It seemed like I was getting at least two solid pitches a month for ERP integration projects. This year? Zip.

  109. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    Paulson: Time to toughen rules on mortgage brokers

    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday issued a call for U.S. financial institutions to raise capital quickly so they can keep lending, and pledged tougher rules for the mortgage industry.

    “We are encouraging financial institutions to continue to strengthen balance sheets by raising capital and revisiting dividend policies; we need those institutions to continue to lend and facilitate economic growth,” he said in a speech at the National Press Club.

    Among recommendations from a top-level Presidential Working Group that he heads, Paulson said he wanted “strong nationwide licensing standards” for mortgage brokers as part of a bid to ward off future housing crises and reassure investors.

    “Regulations needs to catch up with innovation and help restore investor confidence but not go so far as to create new problems, make our markets less efficient or cut off credit to those who need it,” Paulson said.

    The working group includes the heads of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as well as Treasury. It issued recommendations that touch nearly every corner of the credit market, from Wall Street firms to credit rating agencies and regulators.

    Paulson said state and local regulators need to toughen oversight of all mortgage originators. Sloppy lending practices including loans made to homeowners with no requirement of proof of income are widely blamed for a soaring tide of foreclosures, especially among so-called subprime mortgages held by people with the shakiest personal credit.

  110. JLB says:

    #93 Mitch: Is not about getting them to come to you, it is about getting them to go away. That ‘frosh’ could end up being very expensive if she decides to attach herself, right?

  111. grim says:

    Watch your hard earned tax dollars squandered away in half-ass bailout attempts.

    Come on Barney, wasn’t HOPE-HOW supposed to fix the problem?

    Rep. Frank offers new foreclosure help plan

    Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., on Thursday announced a plan to “stem the significant rise in mortgage foreclosures” by enabling the Federal Housing Administration to insure and guarantee refinanced mortgages that have been significantly written-down by mortgage holders and lenders. Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, will seek input over the next few weeks. The current plan would permit FHA to provide up to $300 billion in new guarantees to help to refinance at-risk borrowers. In exchange for accepting a “substantial” write-down of principal, lenders or mortgage holders would receive payment from the proceeds of a new FHA loan if the restructured loan resulted in terms that the borrower “can reasonably be expected to pay.”

  112. 3b says:

    3104 SG: Won’t you please stop with the hearsay, you know the I know somebosy who knows soembody who says things are bad.

    Pret says these things are not true, they are just anecdotes. he has lovely charts that say otherwise.

    All is well, do not belive sensational headlines plucked from the MSM.

  113. Stu says:

    Gold >$1,000
    Oil >110
    Foreclosures >60%
    3 straight month of declining employment
    Inflation >12%
    Mortgage rates >6.5%
    Dollar at 1995 levels against Asian currencies

    FED Intervention

    FED Discount Rate down 2.75
    FED Funds Rate down 2.25
    200 billion in 28-day loans
    300 billion in loans to banks w/ poop for collateral

    ECB Intervention

    500 billion in loans to banks w/ poop for collateral

    Results of FED and ECB Intervention

    S&P down 9.11%
    Dow down 7.5%
    Nasdaq down 10.14%

    Think 12% M3 inflation and those index drops are gargantuan.

    Even using the ‘Bushit’ 4% inflation numbers and you are still talking 20% annualized losses if this continues through August.

    And need I remind all of you, we have not yet to experience a Spring/Summer real estate season with little to no available credit. Wait until the bank run when WAMU goes kablammu.

    Good times!

  114. 3b says:

    #110 grim: 114 goes for you too!! Enough doom and gloom, we are a sea of wealth!!!

  115. grim says:

    At this point, it is clear that these bailout ideas are nothing more than thinly disguised attempts at home price controls.

    If history is any indication of the success/failure of price controls, these too will fail. They always do.

  116. njpatient says:

    “grim Says:
    March 13th, 2008 at 7:23 am
    Oh bother…”

    Fan of A.A. Milne?

  117. grim says:

    When did we forget that foreclosure and bankruptcy options were the bailout? That these options were good solutions for the current problem.

    Borrowers can walk away without recourse. Now, courtesy of our government, the tax on their debt forgiveness has been eliminated as well. You can walk away, free and clear. What more do they want?

    Why do we need a bailout on top of the bailout?

    What else do delinquent borrowers want?

    …A hug? An apology? Their money back? A free house?

  118. njpatient says:

    52 Secondary

    Thanks for the good link.

    “Shout out to NJPatient as he’s the other relo to PA.”

    I think kettle’s considering also

  119. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    115 stu,

    When i look at those stats, i realize that i am not nearly doomy/gloomy enough. Any one want to go in with me on one of these???? we could make it the official Nj report club house.

    http://www.missilebases.com/properties/VisionAF.htm

  120. njpatient says:

    “grim Says:
    March 13th, 2008 at 8:36 am
    I need to fast track my PA real estate license..”

    remind us what needs to get done, how much it costs, and what the hurdles are for helping?

  121. Theo says:

    A question for those who know a bit about currencies… Now that the wife and I have that 20% dp saved sitting in the money market as the interest rates gradually lower, I was wondering if the depreciation in the dollar can continue, after all it has lost more that 1/3 of its value vs. the Euro in the past 5 years or so.

    Do the etf’s for currencies make any sense for any additional savings if I don’t want to have a currency trading account and don’t want to keep any additional savings in dollars? Are they invested in some type of securities, I saw that the one for the Euro has a 3% yield or so…

  122. BC Bob says:

    “If history is any indication of the success/failure of price controls, these too will fail. They always do.”

    JB,

    Tricky Dick proves you right.

  123. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    120 NJpatinet

    yes, PA is seriously on my scope. if you wouldn’t mind e-mailing me i would be interested in picking your brain since you have already spent time checking out parts of bucks and have probably already learned some of the local knowledge.

  124. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    Patient

    we form an LP/LLC and hire JB as a contractor?

  125. par4156 says:

    kettle, Re: #106…thanks.

  126. 3b says:

    #121 kettle; Can I bring my Thompson?

  127. grim says:

    Contractor? For what, to dig a mine in Bucks County?

    Speaking of digging mines, I talked to a guy who sunk a dual well geothermal system in Berwyn. Was a very impressive setup (WaterFurnace). Still waiting to hear back on his savings.

  128. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    grim 129,

    i was thinking more along the lines of a bunker!

    3,

    sure you can bring your thompson. There should even be enough room for clotts leather appointed abrams. At least we dont have to worry about teh cops showing up with a No-Knock warrant.

    -drive-in access through a 47 ton blast door, which is 20 feet wide and 20 feet high

    -Heavy concrete construction with 18″ thick ceilings and walls

  129. skep-tic says:

    if there are going to be bailouts at all cost, then I want a piece. can we get discount purchase loans from the Federal gov’t at the supposed CPI rate? how about double mortgage interest deduction and repeal of the AMT ban on deducting property taxes?

  130. HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    I agree, I think right now though next weeks rate cut is priced in, absent some geopolitical event I think we’ve seen the short term spike in oil prices. Oil is definately the equivalent of a currency play right now but Spring is typically when the price drops due to demand decrease. I don’t know if it will drop below 100 but I think upside in the next couple of months wouldn’t be much higher than where it is now. I am definately going to buy in on any retracement. All disclaimers

  131. tbiggs says:

    kettle1 #125 – I grew up in Joisey but fled to Bucks County PA back in 1989. If you have any questions about the area you can email me: t_biggs at yahoo.com

    I’ve never regretted leaving – my friends in NJ keep griping about the taxes and everything else.

    PA ain’t perfect by a long shot. But at least the local constabulary cannot use RADAR speed enforcement – it’s a state law! That’s a nice bonus right there. :-)

  132. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    HeHe

    have you looked at recent oil production data? the US EIA recently released a new batch of data. Put the sources together and it looks like most of the big players are seeing a leveling off of their production rates. The oil is out there, but it is getting expensive enough so that companies are starting to leave it in the group as it has reached a point where it is essentially an appreciating asset

  133. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    correction, group -> ground

  134. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    whats the best way to search listings in bucks?

  135. ledward says:

    when will be the bottom of dollar? two more years?

  136. BC Bob says:

    Here’s my bailout. Deep six the $800 individual, $160M program. Eliminate the $200B TSLF and initiate a $160B stimulus package. Up to 800k per individual.

  137. BC Bob says:

    “when will be the bottom of dollar? two more years?”

    When gold is $2,500??

  138. gary says:

    I want everyone to go back and read that list that Stu (# 115) put together. If you just crawled out from under a rock, you’d think that the world was coming to an end. But then, you pull up the latest listings and now you wonder if your in some f*cked up, parallel universal time warp. It’s like the laws of physics got turned upside down.

    Despite all that madness that Stu listed, the masses are still expecting prices for their fly infested dumps at peak or near peak levels. Astonishing. And you know what’s even more astonishing? There are people actually still paying close to asking prices. F*cking wow.

  139. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    consider that the all time silver high was in 1980 at $49. That is equivalent to $140 per ounce of silver in todays market and silver is at $20 right now

  140. Rich In NNJ says:

    Switching around the channels on the tube and all I can say is, ‘Amen, Rick Santelli!’.

  141. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    historical chart for silver

    http://tinyurl.com/2s35op

  142. njpatient says:

    108 Grim
    “most of the positions were axed or had their hours reduced significantly (or capped). Bulk of these were in compliance and reporting, if that means anything.”

    It does. The retributive terminations (risk management, compliance, CEO, CFO) have been going through the pipeline, and we are just beginning to clog up with the major cost-cutting terminations.

    Bloodbath in spring 2008.

  143. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    but patient,

    3b said there would be a bloodbath this past fall and it never happened!!!

    ( channeling Pre)

  144. njpatient says:

    119 grim

    “What else do delinquent borrowers want?

    …A hug? An apology? Their money back? A free house?”

    It’s a start…

  145. njpatient says:

    kettle
    “yes, PA is seriously on my scope. if you wouldn’t mind e-mailing me i would be interested in picking your brain ”

    grim can give you my email.

  146. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    # njpatient Says:
    March 13th, 2008 at 12:22 pm

    119 grim

    “What else do delinquent borrowers want?

    …A hug? An apology? Their money back? A free house?”

    It’s a start…

    a $1200/hr escort and a night at the mayflower paid for by the government????

  147. njpatient says:

    146 kettle

    It’s just that I hadn’t gotten my scythe out yet.

  148. njpatient says:

    “parts of bucks”

    We’re actually looking at Main Line, ket

  149. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    Gary,

    Can you imagine the response if Stu #115’s posts was the headline on the major news networks?

    The big story on this mornings news….

    1. to much corn is bad for you. oh and corn or corn derivatives are in every thing.

    2. How to keep bees as a hobby (i am not joking)

  150. Stu says:

    Thanks Gary,

    On the next ‘black *day’, we’ll have to get together for some drinks to discuss how sheeplike the populace truly is.

    I can’t tell you how great it is to be the ‘don’t pass’ player at the crap table right now. All day I listen to my coworkers and friends bitch about how they are losing money hand over foot. Since December I have discovered a friend in Redbank who thinks his house won’t drop in value due to his proximity to New York. He has a piggy back. Another friend who talks the big money game and who has been in Swiss Francs since the middle of last year, has an arm that is adjusting upwards soon. My own boss keeps saying how now is the perfect time to buy. It just plain sickens me.

    All the while, I’m smiling the whole way to the bank shorting real estate. Wait until commercial RE hits the crapper and the derivative problem makes subprime look like a flea.

    Keep on renting folks. Your time will come and those who have saved will reap the reward.

  151. njpatient says:

    143 Rich
    Mrs. Patient and I have been saying that every day for the past nine months.

  152. Mitchell says:

    #102 $50.00. What’s she doing at 8am?

  153. Jill says:

    #105: It’s almost enough to make me hope for a McCain presidency so they can’t blame this one on the Democrats.

  154. grim says:

    But then, you pull up the latest listings and now you wonder if your in some f*cked up, parallel universal time warp. It’s like the laws of physics got turned upside down.

    The New Jersey real estate market is crouched in the fetal position, in a dark corner, rocking back and forth, eyes closed, fingers in ears, repeating the mantra, “Everything will be alright, everything will be alright”.

  155. bairen says:

    #152 Bread and circuses.

    Wonder if we can blame corn syrup for the housing bubble. “Corn syrup made me forget how to do basic math”

    I avoid corn syrup anyway. I swear it made me gain weight and is more addictive then caffeine.

  156. bairen says:

    #141 Gary,

    Our supply of fools is dwindling. Lending standards and costs going up should (in a just world) cause prices to go down.

  157. grim says:

    ket,

    My father was a bee keeper. Local municipality made him shut his hives down. A neighbor a few blocks away complained that they were afraid their kids might get stung by bees.

    I think we need to start spraying the parks to kill the rest of those bees.

    Come on people, think of the children.

    I’ll be the first to step up and start the a local chapter of the Citizens Anti-Bee coalition.

    Now I hear that Sussex/Hunterdon are giving away a few hundred dollars to anyone willing to try it.

    We need bees? Who knew?

  158. lisoosh says:

    grim Says:

    “What else do delinquent borrowers want?

    …A hug? An apology? Their money back? A free house?”

    Well they never actually seem to have had any money, so I’m guessing, a free house. Plus some furniture and granite countertops thrown in.

  159. Mitchell says:

    #107 They did find meds in the water recently. I can only assume in Spitzer’s neck of the woods the concentration is exceptionally higher.

    But really Spitzer’s BS must be really good to make Gov.

  160. grim says:

    You would be crazy to drink tap water anywhere.

    Undercounter reverse osmosis (RO) systems are cheap and easy to install. The cost is irrelevant once you weigh the alternatives.

    I won’t even boil eggs in tap anymore.

    I use RO/DI at home, one step further. Although overkill. TDS isn’t the best measure for purity, but it’s a measure. My RO/DI is 0-1 TDS, my tap is routinely 200-300.

    (Caveat, this water doesn’t contain fluoride, your doctor may recommend that your kids drink bottled water with fluoride).

  161. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    grim

    from USDA

    about one-third of the human diet comes from insect- pollinated plants, and the honeybee is responsible for 80 percent of that pollination, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

    Even cattle, which feed on alfalfa, depend on bees. So if the collapse worsens, we could end up being “stuck with grains and water,” said Kevin Hackett, the national program leader for USDA’s bee and pollination program.

  162. Shore Guy says:

    # 14 Clot,

    I am going to be down in FtL sometime in the next couple of weeks or so. I would be eager to hear more about the beachfront RE situation down there.

  163. Shore Guy says:

    # 20 Yes, she is attractive. What a shame for her and the children.

  164. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    grim 163,

    Imagine how that water looks to someone who works in the pharma industry and understands the meaning of the numbers in these reports of drugs in water…….
    I have been running RO for years now. Oh and did you know that the chlorine in water acts as a carcinogen and you can trace a small but measurable increase in cancers as you switch a population onto chlorinated water from non-chlorinated water???? Oh and the chemical industry lobbies heavily for high levels of chlorine in water. If they dont sell the chlorine to water companies, then it is just a hazardous waste material left over from industrial processes.

  165. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (165)-

    Point your car towards water. Drive. Look for signs (won’t take long). Exit car. Walk into houses. Pick a house. Ask lender if they’ve redlined the zip code of your desired purchase. Obtain mortgage. Make low offer. Escrow. Close.

    See how easy RE is?

  166. lurkerA says:

    Can I ask about your RO systems? I have been thinking about installing one for a while. Do you know what kind of you have? Is one brand or kind better than another? Costco carries one that’s insanely inexpensive (I thought it would be significantly more) and I’ve been thinking about getting it for some time.

    How easy is easy, in terms of installation? Like I can actually do it myself? Or a plumber can do it really quickly and for not too much money?

    thanks!

  167. Zack says:

    Hi,
    Can I get info on the address below. The house should have closed last week. Just curious what was the final sales price.

    683 Victoria Ave
    Paramus, NJ  07652

  168. lisoosh says:

    Bees –

    Some area in China has already lost all of their bees, and their major cash crop is pears. They actually pollinate the trees by hand. Labor intensive doesn’t even begin to describe it, think of all the illegals you would need to do that in the US.

  169. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    LurkerA,

    I have been using an under sink RO system by GE that is sold at lowes for about $120. Installation is easy enough, the directions are clear and you can do it yourself if you can figure out what end of a hammer to use. You will have to replace filters and membranes from time to time. how often depends on the qualty of the incoming water you have. I spend about $150/yr on filters/membranes.
    You can spend big$$$ on RO but the basic units are way beyond a brita filter.
    To compare filters look at the rated efficiency of the filters for similar units. so 2 similar RO units may have different abilities to remove certain materials, although they should be generally similar. The GE system consistently ranks highly on consumer reviews if that matters to you.

    Also, you can do a whole house system with a carbon filter/softener where the well/water main comes into the house and then an RO unit under the sink. These units can go for 1-3K.

  170. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    lisoosh,

    dont worry, we are not seeing an ecosystem collapse

  171. Mitchell says:

    #112 Class 5 Clinger!!!

    Sometimes the clingers are the biggest freaks though.

    I had one that was so bad the night I took her home she woke up cleaned the place, did all the laundry, and made me and my roommate breakfast. We have eggs? Freaked me out it was like she moved herself in. I tried everything to get rid of her. She once confronted me when I was hitting on a bartender that I later dated. “Are you hitting on the bartender” I said “YES” She replied “Thats ok you can see other girls” Nothing phased her. She looked like a young Daphne Zuniga.

    In a way it was comical because she was a telemarketer. Goes to prove nothing you say or do phases a telemarketer they just keep pushing the product on you.

    Nice girl just not for me. Not sure what it was with her. Didn’t think it was low self esteem. She had friends too.

  172. Rich In NNJ says:

    Is it just me…

    I use RO/DI at home, one step further. Although overkill. TDS isn’t the best measure for purity, but it’s a measure. My RO/DI is 0-1 TDS, my tap is routinely 200-300.

    Who (besides Neutral-Grain-Spirit) understands what this guy types when he goes into science-mode?
    I personally get a small headache right behind my left ear.

  173. SG says:

    CNBC had Remax National Executive on, according to him, he is seeing most traffic in last 6 months !!! Now is the best time !!! What a bull !!!

  174. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    to RO units

  175. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    link to lowes RO units ( not trying to hype them, just an example)

    http://tinyurl.com/2oh88s

  176. BC Bob says:

    “Change for a penny? With pennies, nickels costing more to make than they’re worth, Congress considers metal makeover”

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-coin12mar12,0,6759283.story

  177. Mitchell says:

    Feb. foreclosures up 60 percent over year before

    LOS ANGELES – Nearly 60 percent more U.S. homes faced foreclosure in February than in the same month last year, with Nevada, California and Florida showing the highest foreclosure rates, a research firm said Wednesday.

    A total of 223,651 homes across the nation received at least one notice from lenders last month related to overdue payments, up 59.8 percent from 139,922 a year earlier, according to Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac Inc.

    Nearly half of the homes on the most recent list had slipped into default for the first time.

    More Here
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23601813/

  178. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    RO = Reverse osmosis ( method of filtering water that results in very high purity water, will remove odors metals salts bacteria etc)

    DI = deionized (process of removing charge particles, ions, such as salts from the water)

    TDS = Total Dissolved Solids (the amount of minerals salts, and organic material dissolved in water. this is what leaves the mineral residue ans stains the sink)

  179. 3b says:

    #176 SG he is seeing most traffic in last 6 months !!!

    Yeah he is seeing traffic, a traffic jam of inventory!!

    That clown should be tarred and featherd!!

  180. Frank says:

    #140,
    “SG: Job front”
    Are people still getting WS jobs or just a lot of resumes flying around?

  181. 3b says:

    #153 stu:Wait until commercial RE hits the crapper.

    It already is.

  182. JLB says:

    #153 Stu: I have said this before and people get angry but it is the truth, it does not matter how low prices go if you can’t pull the trigger. Many ‘savers’ are not people that analyze markets well and usually don’t capitalize on markets well because they make fear based decisions. They will not buy because of the fear of buying at the wrong time so it is always a wrong time for them, get it?

  183. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    Thanks for the info. I am going to Lowes on Sunday to pick one up. We had a lead scare in Chatham not too long ago and with three kids under 4 I can’t take any chances.

  184. 3b says:

    #141 gary:There are people actually still paying close to asking prices. F*cking wow.

    Yeah, but not many, and deals are falling apart every day, even on the day of closing.

    Anyone buying and closing at peak or near peak prices today, is in a word stupid.

    Unless of course money is absolutely no object and they simply do not care.

  185. Mitchell says:

    #181. I think they are a good idea. if I went for one I think I would go for a whole house system.

    Kind of off but I wonder why we still put in Hot Water heaters when Heat on Demand systems seem like such a better idea.

  186. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    mike 186,

    if you want to be worried, do a little research on MTBE in drinking water…..

  187. 3b says:

    #185 JLB: And the non-savers do? That makes no sense to me.

  188. Stu says:

    JLB (185),

    Well those afraid to pull the trigger is a different category altogether. They wouldn’t bet on a gift horse whether they had the discretionary dollars or not.

    The point I was trying to make was for those who have saved enough to have the 10 to 20% nut required to buy a home from under the foreclosed sap who did not will finally reap the reward of not needing the 80″ flatscreen or the Apple Iphone.

    The person who gets hit with the 1 to 2% higher mortgage rate could have bought a boatload of TVs or Iphones with all of the extra interest they’ll be paying the bank for their lack of DP and/or crap FICA score.

  189. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    mike,

    looks like there may be a lead issue

    2007 chatham water report

    http://www.chathamborough.org/uploadedfiles/agenda/204.pdf

  190. lurkerA says:

    Kettle1 – #172

    thanks for the info. the one in costco is in that same price range (i think it was about $140 or something). i’m decently handy (though my husband isn’t) so based on your description I’m guessing i can install it myself.

  191. Stu says:

    “looks like there may be a lead issue”

    Perhaps the rats from the recent rat infestation dropped some old pencils into the pipes?

  192. Mike NJ says:

    Kettle,

    Thanks for the link. I actually had just printed this out and was reading it as I spotted your update. All the more reason to go RO. I have to replace our kitchen faucet anyway so while I am under there I might as well add this.

  193. kettle1 (Apocolypse Boy) says:

    Lurker, mike,

    glad i could help.

    Lurker,

    read the directions and plan on possibly going to lowes for plumbing parts. I had to cut into the sink drain. easy to do, but you may need 1 or 2 parts.

  194. Mitchell says:

    #197 before you even look at cutting or changing any water pipes be sure to turn off the water main.

    Seen plenty of sink area mini knobs not close far enough then someone cuts a pipe and scrambles to figure out where the main is.

  195. Rich In NNJ says:

    Gary,

    And you know what’s even more astonishing? There are people actually still paying close to asking prices. F*cking wow.

    Buying at asking isn’t necessarily a bad thing if the property is priced correctly. You can’t assume all asking prices are “peak” prices.
    What sales data are you using anyway?

    Besides, those who are purchasing (in Bergen County) are a small group.

    January 1 to March 12 Units Sold
    2004 1,903
    2005 1,925
    2006 1,670
    2007 1,724
    2008 849

  196. 3b says:

    #141 gary: There is a house in my town that started at 650K in Sept of 07, various price drops at long intervals bought it down to 565K.

    The listing expires, comes back on the market at 479K. So they have dropped the price a total of 171K.

    So irrational and emotional as some might say it is, could I not bid an additional 171k off the new price?

    After all it was purchased end of 1999 for 230K, no upgrades since then.

    At a 230k purchase and a 5% appreciation rate over the last 7 years, that would bring the price to somewhere around 315K or so.

    The sellers of course would be insulted, and yet no worries about insulting potential buyers, when their OLP was 650k.

  197. lurkerA says:

    197 and 198 – thanks for the tips (and yes, i would have known to turn off the main – or more likely, at that point I would have called a plumber).

  198. JLB says:

    corzine on cnbc right now talking about recession and nj

  199. par4156 says:

    3B,
    Te: 184. I’m sitting here admiring the Prudential Center and contrasting it to all the office space in the area. The office buildings seem pretty full (based on what I see in the windows). There must be some demand for more space….right?

  200. RentininNJ says:

    Corzine on CNBC now on a story called “NJ: State on the brink”

  201. BC Bob says:

    “An American Nightmare”

    “The Carlisle on the Ocean is a case study in everything that has led to the country’s real estate collapse — and then some ”

    http://www.ccfj.net/condoCARLISLE.html?ref=patrick.net

  202. JLB says:

    Corzine thinks we need to design a system to lower the debt level for people having trouble with their mortgages!

  203. Sybarite says:

    #206

    That’s easy. They can pay off their debts or foreclose. Problem solved. Tell them to stop buying plasma screens and playstations.

  204. par4156 says:

    Just get the “targeted” layoff numbers for my division. Not good….

  205. d2b says:

    kettle and patient-

    If you are looking to PA and you don’t need to commute to NJ/NYC I would also look at Blue Bell/Fort Washington. I live in Lafayette Hill which is near Blue Bell. It’s very nice and close to the city.

  206. par4156 says:

    ongoing negotiations regarding which services will have to be dropped…possibility of reorganizing job title responsabilities to handle some services…

  207. JLB says:

    #207 Sy: I hear bailout in what Corzine and Paulson, etc. are saying.

  208. BC Bob says:

    “Corzine thinks we need to design a system to lower the debt level for people having trouble with their mortgages!”

    Everybody’s solution is to lower the floor and raise the ceiling. Can we just blow [no pun, client #9]all the crap out of the window?

  209. par4156 says:

    350 from the entire department..plus anticipated 150-300 through early retirement option…no backfills for any clerical titles. Looks like the’re trying to hire contracted temps to replace clericals. Well,it was good while it lasted.

  210. 3b says:

    #203 Demand for office space perhaps some still in Newark, but I do do not see how or why. Contrary to what some believe the “street’s” emnployment is contracting, and that will impact the north Jersey area.

    However, in downtown Manhattan lots of empty office space even with all the condo/co-op/rental conversions over the last few years;much of which has not even come to market yet.

    As far as commercial as in retail, well according to my local town paper, Paramus the heart of all retail in this area, has the highest rate of available retail space since the early 90’s.

    And there are lots and lots of office buildings in the Bergen Co area that have plenty of available office space.

  211. BC Bob says:

    [211]

    They have been preaching bailout for the last 6 months; Hope Now, Lifeline, TAF, TSLF, etc. The RTC is rising.

  212. 3b says:

    #213 par:What field are you in?

  213. JLB says:

    #215: yes, but it looks like they are going to go straight to home valuations and mortgage holders. The Fed is coming! The Fed is comine!

  214. Clotpoll says:

    jlb (185)-

    When it comes to anything financial, pretty much everybody on the planet makes fear-based decisions.

  215. BC Bob says:

    Greed/fear shot RE to the moon. The same psychology will obliterate this market.

  216. make money says:

    I figured it all out. BI works for Standard and Pooor people.

    Standard & Poor’s helped stocks rebound by saying that an end to subprime mortgage writedowns is in sight for big financial institutions.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/23614154

    Why didn’t Carlyle get the memo?

  217. Mike says:

    Check out this guys page………..talk about being out of touch with reality!

    Why Buy Your Next Home Now?
    March 13th, 2008 by Don Sherblom
    The Time is Now! Six reasons not to wait.

    Inflation is second to fighting recession right now, but once the economy starts to recover, the Federal Reserve will turn to fighting inflation and they’ll do this by raising interest rates.

    Even if home prices continue to drop by 3-4% when interest rates rise by even a 1/2% next year’s lower priced home will cost you the same monthly payment as the same home at today’s market value.*

    The inventory is high. You’ll never have more homes to choose from.

    Sale prices have come way down, even from early and mid-2007. Realistic buyers can get a great deal on the house they want.

    Many sellers are finally setting their list price at or near the market value, making it easy. As your Realtor I’ll make sure you pay today’s market value!

    Family live goes on. Time spent living in the house you want, not the one you don’t want. That’s invaluable. In fact, geting the house you want at the best possible price and living in it, that’s the whole idea!

    You can only get a great house if you buy it before – not after – anyone else. As we come into late March and April, buyers traditionally flock into the market. In real estate, location determines the value, but timing makes the deal, it’s not the almost-as-early bird that gets the worm. Now is the time.

  218. make money says:

    mike,221

    He’s a financial professional with 2 weeks of training.

  219. reinvestor101 says:

    No one here has had anything positive to say about the stock market being up. No, just a litany of negativity.

    Please, just think about what you’re doing and just stop it. We need to think about what needs to be done to support housing as the things that are occuring now are no good. I’ve had a few friends who have had their lines of credit cut off and that’s a problem. How is it possible to access real estate’s value if you don’t have a line in place? Credit needs to be made available, not curtailed. We need policies to ensure an ample supply of affordable credit to the masses of people. We need longer amortization periods for mortages as well. We’ve got to get serious about staving off a disasterous collaspe in the real estate markets and it really begins with stopping negative talk. Each of us here has a duty to make responsible positive and hopeful comments as a step in the right direction and to repudiate those who don’t do that.

  220. JLB says:

    #221: the reason today might be a good time to buy is that you don’t know when there will be as many fear based sellers out there. Low interest rates and scared sellers combined with decent inventory could make for a really great deal as long as you aren’t trying to flip within a short time period. Fear based financial decisions will invariably lose money. Taking the emotion out now could be a great time to buy for the right person with the right motivations. Who on this board thinks real estate prices won’t be above today’s levels (and interest rates higher) 10-15 years from now?

  221. njpatient says:

    167 kettle

    “chlorine in water acts as a carcinogen and you can trace a small but measurable increase in cancers as you switch a population onto chlorinated water from non-chlorinated water”

    171 ‘soosh

    “Some area in China has already lost all of their bees”

    I find that there is an ever increasing frequency of stories that make me want to go lie in bed for a few weeks. In kettle’s bunker. With 3b’s Thompson cradled in my arms.

  222. gary says:

    221,

    He took one of those schlock courses advertised during the Jerry Springer show and just got his junior deputy realtor badge in the mail. Mommy and Daddy just helped him set up a web page because the idiot is 36 years old, living in the new house addition he thinks is his own apartment and doesn’t have his career established yet. And when he drops that 65 lbs and loses the comb-over, he may get a girlfriend (or a boyfriend).

  223. red says:

    Each of us here has a duty to make responsible positive and hopeful comments as a step in the right direction…

    I really hope the market recovers soon

    …after a much needed correction

  224. Stu says:

    Oh man…Someone let reinvestor out of the asylum.

    Stock market being up?

    What are you smoking?

    Let me do some math for you. +5% + (-15%) = -10%.

    Everyone smile and make believe the economy is not crashing.

    RE, read the facts in post 115. Then tell me our overt negativity is causing you to lose your shirt.

    And adjust my 1995 Asian prices to 1985. At least that is what they said on Bloomberg when I went out to pick up my steamed bean buns for lunch.

  225. Stu says:

    Steamed bean buns cost me $1. I’ll invest the other $4 shorting real estate. Perhaps you should try it. It might stop your whining.

  226. JLB says:

    #223 Re: Uh Oh, you just opened yourself up for a whole can of whoop*ss…you realize what site you are on, right? The majority of people who post here are people who have been left out of the “markets” for many up ticks as they are not positive except when talking about a housing collapse with some family thrown out on the street corner while they supposedly buy in. Meanwhile the reality is they can not actually pull the trigger so they will even miss taking advantage of that unfortunate circumstance and then they will be here posting another justification for why they were left out but years from now they will still have that down payment in their money market.

  227. BC Bob says:

    50.5,

    What’s in the water you’re drinking? The negative talk has only just begun. Please brace yourself. Worry about IU in the dance, RE is beyond any hope.

  228. Clotpoll says:

    mike (221)-

    That guy’s last marketed listing was in December, 2007. 6 total closed, marketed listings in 2007.

    BTW, that’s actually one of the better agent numbers I’ve run lately.

  229. skep-tic says:

    could someone explain the argument that we are in a deflationary (rather than inflationary) environment? I really don’t get it. thank you

  230. BC Bob says:

    “Who on this board thinks real estate prices won’t be above today’s levels’

    Two hands up here. Wait until the boomers start to unload. It’s easy now, the real debacle begins then.

  231. JLB says:

    But I will say the good news is that I have already noticed sentiment on this board changing and that is what you watch when you are looking for a bottom. When the bottom dwellers are sick of the negativity then you are near bottom!

  232. make money says:

    Clot 232 Please don’t tell me that Mike beats your numbers!

  233. BC Bob says:

    “But I will say the good news is that I have already noticed sentiment on this board changing”

    I’m confused, please elaborate.

  234. Stu says:

    JLB,

    You obviously don’t know REinvestor101.5!

    He’s like a missionary realtor out to erase the mind of the thinkers.

    He’s famous for saying things such as, “to rent is unpatriotic.” He has even posted comments on other websites that have quoted the moderator here to attempt to discredit him and this site.

    If something ever happened to my kid, I would ask the 5.0 to bring him in for questioning.

  235. Rich In NNJ says:

    JLB,

    Why do you assume so many here will not “pull the trigger”? And why is saving a bad thing?
    I do not believe everyone here will purchase either but that may be due to the fact that they are first time buyers who haven’t saved enough yet (as in savings=$).
    Or is it that you’re just trying to justify a recent purchase?

    RE101,

    I’ve had a few friends who have had their lines of credit cut off and that’s a problem. How is it possible to access real estate’s value if you don’t have a line in place?

    Credit is available, just not to those who have no collateral. Sounds as if your friends need to save (huh! there’s that word again!).

  236. Stu says:

    save?

    Why that’s unpatriotic. We must spend. You are getting sleepy.

  237. 3b says:

    #224 JLB: reason today might be a good time to buy is that you don’t know when there will be as many fear based sellers out there.

    There are not many fear based sellers out there yet. If there were fear based sellers out there, then that would be reflected in reasonable asking prices.

    Those reasonable asking prices would be based on the fear or acceptance that prices will go lower, so sell now.

    For the most part the sellers out there now are either delusional and or desperate. Desperate to find some buyer to hopefully bail them out by purchasing their house at some peak price level, now passed.

    Or delusional enough to believe that all is well or that there area or their houses can somehow still command those now past prices.

    Those that can and need to sell, will lower their prices accordingly, and hence we will start to see the more reasonable asking prices. In anticipation of prices dropping even more.

    Those who cannot or will not drop their prices, will haev to stay put, (probably for years, if last times downturn is any indication), or will have their houses taken from them by the lenders;simple as that.

    With all due respect, I cannot possibly see how you believe that there are numerous fear based sellers out there at this point. I t is my belief however, that we will see them as we get into the late Spring/Summer selling season.

  238. Clotpoll says:

    jlb (230)-

    “The majority of people who post here are people who have been left out of the “markets” for many up ticks as they are not positive except when talking about a housing collapse with some family thrown out on the street corner while they supposedly buy in.”

    Uh, jlb…since Fall of 2005, I’ve processed about 270 transactions. I think I have enough exposure to this market to speak with some authority. While there are some here who will analysis/paralysis themselves into doing nothing (I’m still sticking by my 60% call), you do yourself no service to underestimate any poster’s intelligence (except, perhaps, your own) or the quality of their performance in other investment classes.

  239. skep-tic says:

    “the reason today might be a good time to buy is that you don’t know when there will be as many fear based sellers out there. Low interest rates and scared sellers combined with decent inventory could make for a really great deal as long as you aren’t trying to flip within a short time period.”

    I agree that there could be widespread capitulation this year. Right now there is still major denial based on the absurdly high asking prices. As more people are forced to sell due to job loss, credit squeeze, etc, it will be impossible to keep up this facade that prices are not collapsing. Banks are not yet willing to cut their losses, but as more and more people start walking away from their homes, they will. Similarly, the job losses really have not filtered through to sales yet. These shifts will probably occur in the next 6 months, but the danger remains that the initial big drop this year will not be the end of the bubble collapse.

  240. Clotpoll says:

    jlb (235)-

    I’m rapidly getting sick of you. Troll.

  241. 3b says:

    #235 JLB: Dude what are you smoking. Me thinks you are a realtor;you sound like one.

    Sentiment on this board is just getting mroe negative,a s well it should, as the situation across the board continues to rapidly decline.

  242. njpatient says:

    189 ket
    “if you want to be worried, do a little research on MTBE in drinking water…..”

    I have.
    Does the RO system address the issue?

  243. Imus says:

    #230: You are 100% right on. Great post!

  244. Stu says:

    I agree 3B.

    Last year at this time, we were all discussing the arm resets. The latest foreclosure numbers are very revealing. I think in most cases, we all were overly anxious about when our predictions would come true. Things are not different this time. The rally in RE was a long one. No one expects it to return to 1999 pricing levels tomorrow. We all just need to give it some more time.

    Target today decided to sell off half of it’s credit card business. I wonder why?

  245. Clotpoll says:

    …not to mention the fact that mortgage rates (especially with the new Fannie/Freddie surcharges) are rising and there are only a few truly “scared” sellers out there.

  246. Rich In NNJ says:

    Getting nervous Imus?

  247. Clotpoll says:

    Imus (247)-

    How many pencils did you sell today?

  248. 3b says:

    #223 recrybaby:No one here has had anything positive to say about the stock market being up. No, just a litany of negativity.

    Do you even know why it is up today?

  249. BC Bob says:

    “could someone explain the argument that we are in a deflationary (rather than inflationary) environment? I really don’t get it.”

    skep,

    It’s the fed versus Mr Market. The fed is trying desperately to keep asset prices inflated/pumping while the market is deflating. Mr Market always wins. Asset prices, RE, will continue to decline, deflation, while inflation, the cost of goods and services, continue to rise. This will persist as the fed devalues our currency. The fed is screwed on both ends. [can client # 9 comment on this]

  250. VMC says:

    Most sellers shouldn’t be scared – if you bought before 2004 or so you will still have gains. And boom/bust cycles are normal, nothing to be upset about. Same with recessions. Some people who took dumb financial risks will be hurt, but we will all benefit when housing becomes more affordable. I wonder why no one worries about poeple priced out of homeownership? They have suffered too.

  251. BC Bob says:

    Imus [247],

    How far has that front line retreated?

  252. 3b says:

    #247 Imus: You are 100% right on. Great post!

    Right on?? You go girl!!!

  253. Client 9 says:

    BC (253)-

    Good thing I can type. Silda won’t take the gag ball out of my mouth.

  254. JLB says:

    Wow, where to begin. Okay, Clot, I wasn’t talking about you so please don’t make me cry. Obviously your posts stand for themselves. As far as the sentiment on the board, this board has become quite funny, people have jokes, stories, sarcasm, etc. Prior most of the chat was strictly tied to the bubble prices and now even those that don’t like the current prices are talking about other things which indicates negative sentiment has become mainstream.

  255. njpatient says:

    210 par
    am on layoffs call myself now

  256. Stu says:

    “When the bottom dwellers are sick of the negativity then you are near bottom!”

    Isn’t that #3 on the sheeple’s articles of confederation?

  257. njpatient says:

    220 make
    Har – I had the same thought!

  258. Client 9 says:

    jlb (258)-

    They’re whining because current prices are still way too high. I see well-employed, hardworking people walk thru my office every single day who want to buy a borderline crapbox and have to run their back-end ratios to 50% in order to purchase it.

    Negative sentiment is NOT why there are no buyers out there. It’s because NOBODY CAN AFFORD THE HOUSES!

  259. make money says:

    Client 9,

    Let me know if you need a messagge.

  260. Stu says:

    A hound from the pound, Hehehe?

    More power to you. They are a truly cool breed. Especially that distinct bark of theirs.

    Roorooroorooroooooooooooooo.

  261. 3b says:

    #254 VMC: Most sellers shouldn’t be scared – if you bought before 2004 or so you will still have gains. And boom/bust cycles are normal, nothing to be upset about.

    Having purchased before 2004, and actually I would say before 2003, means nothing, if you have sucked all the equity out of your house.

    I know people that bought years ago,and have sucked almost every dime out of their houses. Remodels, additions, new/leased cars, college tuitions, multiple yearly vacations, shopping at Nordstroms when Macy’s or JC Penny’s used to be fine.

    And every one I know all professional educated, sophisicated etc, has at least one HELOC/Home Equity loan.

  262. njpatient says:

    JLB
    “Who on this board thinks real estate prices won’t be above today’s levels (and interest rates higher) 10-15 years from now?”

    This is a straw man argument. People on this board are talking about whether it will be a good time to buy tomorrow, next month, next season, next year or in two to five years.

  263. JLB says:

    #239 Rich: The reason I think many here will not pull the trigger is based on what they have posted and the conviction that people who are looking for THE bottom never find it. I don’t think saving is a bad thing but my experience is people who define themselves as “savers” are almost always living in fear of doomsday and their focus is that day which never comes (THE bottom day). No, I am not trying to justify a recent purchase as I don’t need to justify a decision like a home purchase, the market will happily do it for me!

  264. Client 9 says:

    jlb-

    Are the lenders handing out 2/28, option ARMs or stated/stated where you live?

    No?

    So, how’s somebody with minimal DP and $110,000 annual income gonna buy the $550,000 split-level crapbox on the corner?

  265. Artemis says:

    Not sure if this was posted already, but Jim Cramer was basically crying about Spitzer yesterday (they were friends). Interesting to see:

    http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23589576#23607004

  266. 3b says:

    #259 njpatient:??

  267. njpatient says:

    230 JLB
    Wow.
    That adds a little more dimension to my opinion of you.
    Thanks for the clarity.

  268. 3b says:

    #268 the market will happily do it for me!
    Well the market ain’t happily doing it for you right now, whatever that means in the first place.

  269. Jamey says:

    We’ve hit bottom. This spring, prices will rebound sharply.

    (ducks flying cellphones)

  270. JLB says:

    #267 patient: Well, trust me you now have a good time to buy as you will for at least the next year! The problem is when you compare buying now to buying in 5 years, that is an impossible debate. Someone is waiting for the boomers? That would be example A for the person who will not pull the trigger.

  271. njpatient says:

    244 clot
    “I’m rapidly getting sick of you. Troll.”

    Roger that.

  272. 3b says:

    #258 JLB: The reason perhaps otherr topics are discussed now, is simply that all we haev talked about in the past had not yet happened in many respects,and now it is.

    So we are sitting back if you will and watching it all unfold as many here knoew it would.

    What do you want have us all congratulate each other every day by saying I told you so?

    You should not make assumoptions like that. You have not been around long enough on this site.

  273. njpatient says:

    Imus showed up?!!?

    First sunny day of spring and the asylum gets a field trip!

  274. 3b says:

    #275 JLB Well, trust me you now have a good time to buy as you will for at least the next year!

    Based on what, rates, inventory, because you said so?

  275. Stu says:

    JLB,

    Most of the prognosticators think we are 1/3rd of the way to the bottom. I’m sure there are a few here who will miss the bottom, but at this point there is no way we are even close. I think when home prices drop another 10%, then you will see some of the smarter folks here dip their toes into the pool.

    One need not catch the exact bottom, but to invest your hard-earned money in a historically lousy investment less than halfway from the top is ludicrous.

    On a $500,000 home, you are talking losing the opportunity cost of 100 to 200 thousand benji’s. Not to mention the additional interest on the higher than necessary mortgage.

    Time is on the side of the buyer right now.

    Disclaimer: I own a home.

  276. JLB says:

    #263 HO NO, umm I mean, Client 9: Prices are still high, agreed. People are are still priced out and some just can’t get capital, agreed. I am not saying that negativity is keeping people from buying. Liquidity is coming hard and fast and prices will come down and people who can pull the trigger will be in amazing position but you have to realize sentiment is huge and the same thing that inflates bubbles can stimulate a recession.

  277. njpatient says:

    JLB

    “Prior most of the chat was strictly tied to the bubble prices and now even those that don’t like the current prices are talking about other things which indicates negative sentiment has become mainstream.”

    Actually, it indicates that this place has become a community where we enjoy each other’s company, while having a focal point of discussion. I see this deeply confuses you.

    “Wow, where to begin. Okay, Clot, I wasn’t talking about you so please don’t make me cry. Obviously your posts stand for themselves.”

    OK, you can stand up again, Kristen.

  278. gary says:

    JLB,

    I’m dying to hear your response to #269 (Client 9).

  279. njpatient says:

    268 JLB
    “people who are looking for THE bottom never find it”
    Yet another straw-man argument – your favorite kind. Pray tell, who here is looking for THE bottom?? Call out a name, and show me a post that demonstrates this truth?

  280. Stu says:

    Imus showed up?!!? reinvestor, now where is bi when we need him?

    Could you imagine if Duck showed up too?

    Huzzah.

  281. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    tick….. tick….. tick….. tick…..

  282. njpatient says:

    271 3b
    now worries – I’m not on the sharp end of the scythe

  283. Duck says:

    I hate you all!!!

  284. Jamey says:

    254:

    Most sellers shouldn’t be scared – if you bought before 2004 or so you will still have gains.

    Try 2002. Prospective buyers now are looking at historical trends, as much as how the numbers shake out.

    Anyone who sees a property today looks at the last downturn to figure roughly how much further the price can fall.

  285. njpatient says:

    275 JLB

    “The problem is when you compare buying now to buying in 5 years, that is an impossible debate.”

    Just because you lack forsight doesn’t mean everyone else does.

  286. Clotpoll says:

    jlb (281)-

    “Liquidity is coming hard and fast…”

    Only if you’re Client 9. Not so much, if your name is John Q.

  287. njpatient says:

    “Anyone who sees a property today looks at the last downturn to figure roughly how much further the price can fall.”

    And that’s if they’re on the optimistic side of the realists (i.e., pretorius (yes, I called him a realist)).

  288. JLB says:

    #284 per Gary’s request: okay that person may need to not buy that house. How about they rent if that is the only option in that location, or they can look in another area that is less expensive (of course they would have to give up the best schools). Frankly, you shouldn’t be using a creative mortgage product unless you know what you are doing and that is why many got into trouble, but don’t worry because they get a dumb pass with the Fed in charge.

  289. Bubble Disciple says:

    Re: 13

    Iraq will end up costing more than the housing bubble. With the housing bubble, we have a lot of debt and empty houses. With Iraq, we have a lot of debt plus dead and injured people.

  290. BC Bob says:

    Spitzer as Maxwell Smart.

    Down comes the cone of silence; Removing his shoe, It’s agent # 9, I’m cruising on the Mayflower. Make sure she hasn’t slept with anyone called Grasso, Gambino, Bruno, Grubman, Langone. In addition to this, no affiliation with Goldman, Merrill, Citi, Bear, JP Morgan, AIG, Marsh. Sorry about this one Chief, no virgins, just a 5 diamond.

    JLB,

    I sold in 9/05. There’s nothing left to talk about regarding this bust except severity of the decline and duration. Go back ito the archives. Everything we discussed, late 2005/early 2006 is now msm.

  291. njpatient says:

    “sentiment is huge and the the same thing that inflates bubbles can stimulate a recession”

    Bravo (brava?), JLB – most everyone here has been saying that for quite some time. Even reinvestor101 (but for different reasons)!

    That’s why prices will drop back to the historical mean, and then _keep dropping_.

  292. njpatient says:

    “Only if you’re Client 9. Not so much, if your name is John Q.”

    EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEWWWW.

  293. 3b says:

    #294 JLB: Of course they would have to give up the best schools).

    Why would they have to give up the best schools, says who, you? Based on what?

    Please save your script for the cluless first time home buyer.

  294. Clotpoll says:

    jlb (294)-

    “Frankly, you shouldn’t be using a creative mortgage product unless you know what you are doing and that is why many got into trouble…”

    Funny thing. When a small group of kids doesn’t play nicely with the toys, the toys get taken away from everyone. Now, everyone has to pass muster under conventional underwriting standards.

    Incomes don’t rise, no more cheap money. So…what’s gonna give?

    Bummer.

  295. Clotpoll says:

    patient (298)-

    Just think how Kristen feels.

  296. 3b says:

    #288 njpatient; That’s good.

  297. JLB says:

    #291 Patient: okay, I will bite (although I hope Kristen didn’t)…what foresight do you have that can predict in 5 years what the price of the house you want is going to be and if it will be on the market? what foresight do you have that tells you definitively what your interest rate will be on your 30 year mortgage in 5 years? Please take your foresight and share it with this uneducated troll.

  298. 3b says:

    #303 JLB: past history is ghreat barometer for what is happening now;enough said.

  299. Rich In NNJ says:

    JLB,

    I don’t get the impression that many here are waiting for a bottom. I’ve read many of their posts and I don’t see many “market timers” here.
    But, I don’t believe ANYONE will miss out on pricing as I don’t see prices going back up this or next year. And then continued flatness (if you will)
    I usually don’t make predictions but there you go. I feel pretty strongly about this one.

    I for one am not looking to time the market but there are many variables involved which need to fall in place in order for me to jump in.
    First, price and location, location, location.
    Second, the style of the house.
    Third, it needs to be a home that we are going to stay in for a minimum of 10 years (and with a down payment of +40% you can be damn sure I’m going to be picky). So neighborhood (see #1) and expansion possibilities if the home doesn’t meet our needs are important.
    PS I’m not a first time home buyer, we have nothing to sell and we have a stellar credit rating.

    As during the bubble I feel no pressure to buy. I’ve been through this before. Housing is like a large ship, once it’s going it slow to change course. But once that course is set…

  300. BC Bob says:

    JLB,

    Forget about years. How about the PE ratio, purchase/rental income. This market went from a PE of approx 10 to approx 25. Good bet we’ll be seeing close to 10 again.

  301. JLB says:

    #299 3b: Obviously that was sarcasm! There are no better schools, all schools are equal in NJ!! I guess the only difference, if you could call it that, is your child might be shot and killed in some districts and might go to an ivy league college in some other districts, but really there is no difference (:

  302. 3b says:

    #305 Rich:PS I’m not a first time home buyer, we have nothing to sell and we have a stellar credit rating.

    As during the bubble I feel no pressure to buy. I’ve been through this before. Housing is like a large ship, once it’s going it slow to change course. But once that course is set…

    AMEN!! Brother Rich, AMEN!!

  303. njpatient says:

    303 JLB
    Everyone on this board shares their forsight every day and has done for several years now, and you just cr@pped on all of it.
    Rates will be significantly higher five years from now, but I don’t give a d@mn what rates are 5 years from now, because I’m putting down a lot of cash, and I’m more concerned about price, which can’t be re-financed, than I am about rate, which can.
    “predict in 5 years what the price of the house you want is going to be and if it will be on the market?”
    I’ll give you the credit of assuming that question is merely mendacious, rather than stupid. What do you mean “it”? I’ll be buying in winter of ’09/’10, and there will be vest quantities of houses for sale at real prices at least 20% lower than today. Five years from now? I’ll guarantee you that real prices will still be lower than today.

  304. njpatient says:

    JLB – here’s the question you side-stepped – Now you can give me an answer:

    268 JLB
    “people who are looking for THE bottom never find it”
    Yet another straw-man argument – your favorite kind. Pray tell, who here is looking for THE bottom?? Call out a name, and show me a post that demonstrates this truth?

  305. njpatient says:

    305 Rich

    Sing it, Luciano!

  306. njpatient says:

    306 BC

    His eyes went glassy when you said “PE ratio”.

  307. 3b says:

    #307 JLB: Nobody is talking about unsafe districts with guns (please stop exaggerating)

    As far as Ivy League, well first, it is not necessarily an aspiration for all people, myself included.

    I am more concerned with the over all product of my children, and not whether or not they go Ivy league. I have one in college already who is excelling in all endeavors, not Ivy League, do not care.

    Second haveing worked with Ivy leaguers I ain’t necessarily all that impressed. third, kids from all sorts of schools and all walks of life end can end up going to Ivy league schools.

    And as far as schools, I ahve been closely involved for years with them. Lots of rah-rah- and cheerleading, and in many cases very little substance.

    And yes it is so called Bleu Ribbon, and for the love of God, do nto get me etarted on that subject, as I am a broken record when it comse to the whole BR nonsense.

  308. njpatient says:

    OK – I hadn’t yet read this when I accused JLB of kissing clot’s a$$ (never were those dollar signs so apropos!).
    http://abovethelaw.com/

    No wonder we ain’t got no liquidity!!

  309. JLB says:

    #305 Rich: I hear you and agree! You are clearly in a good position and will make a good decision. Location is a great criteria but unless you are the only one that considers it a good location you will always have the inventory issue at least in what I think you mean by good location. Keep in mind most of NNJ is not building lots, you have a supply and demand argument in the good locations. When you start seeing this kind of market it is time to shop your best location (not saying today) certainly no time to look at a runner up. But there will always be shoppers in the best locations, maybe getting good deals but shopping nonetheless!

  310. 3b says:

    #309 njpatient:I’ll be buying in winter of ‘09/’10.

    You wion’t have to wait that long to get those prices declines you mention, unelss you just choose to wait and save more.

  311. Rich In NNJ says:

    Never mind! All is well!!! All is well!!!

    From MarketWatch

    End of subprime write-downs in sight, S&P says
    Subprime mortgage-related hits may reach $285 bln, rating agency estimates

    The end of subprime mortgage write-downs by big banks and brokers may be in sight, rating agency Standard & Poor’s said on Thursday.

    blah, blah, blah

    However, the agency also warned that the broader credit crunch has dented the market prices of many other types of securities in recent weeks. If this continues, banks and brokers could be hit by another round of write-downs, S&P said.

    “A major re-pricing of credit risk is taking place across the debt markets,” S&P wrote. “If the wider spreads hold to the end of the first quarter (two weeks away) or half of this year, financial institutions will suffer further market value write-downs of a broad range of exposures, including leveraged loans.”

  312. njcoast says:

    #2773b- “So we are sitting back if you will and watching it all unfold as many here know it will.
    This blog has become like the floor of the NYSE on a low volume day in the old days when there were actually people down there… bored boys playing liars poker, pranks on floor people, and Neanderthal jokes about women. Turns out most of those floor guys got just what Kristen got from Spitzer.

  313. njpatient says:

    316 3b

    Key phrase: “at least”

    That’s my buying horizon having nothing to do with the state of the market.

  314. JLB says:

    I finally got it! When people kept posting about the wheels coming off they were refering to 3b and NJpatient, oh good, I thought they were talking about the financial markets!

  315. njpatient says:

    check this out
    http://babynamewizard.com/namevoyager/lnv0105.html
    (takes a moment to load)

    type in Kristen – – I’ll bet that bell curve reaches 0 soon.

  316. Rich In NNJ says:

    JLB (305),

    You are clearly in a good position…

    Not just me. There are MANY of us here in the same position.
    The reason I laid my cards on the table is you do a disservice to the others here (who have done so in the past before you joined our merry… grim band) who are poised to purchase. Yet you make a comment that many will be frightened when the time comes when all along they have actually been alert and ahead of the herd. They saw where this market was going and when the time comes they will now deal with strength on their side of the table.
    Spend more time getting to know the usual posters and you’ll see what I mean.

    PS Thanks. I’m well aware that a good location will always draw a buyer. But now I won’t have to contend with 0-5% down, I/O buyers jacking up the price with a bidding war.

  317. njpatient says:

    320 JLB
    don’t have any substantive arguments to make?

  318. njpatient says:

    322 Rich

    Good catch – it’s odd that all the fools who have been wrong all along arrive here at grim’s cave to wag their fingers at the folks who were prescient and say “you’re all idi*ts!”

  319. njpatient says:

    nobody’s reacting to 314?

    What if I tell you it’s about Spitzer??

  320. Rich In NNJ says:

    Patient (325),

    Whoa! Looks like the Gov liked to have his salad tossed!

  321. njpatient says:

    BOOO YAH!

  322. njpatient says:

    I think JLB’s researching this question (may take awhile):

    268 JLB
    “people who are looking for THE bottom never find it”
    Yet another straw-man argument – your favorite kind. Pray tell, who here is looking for THE bottom?? Call out a name, and show me a post that demonstrates this truth?

  323. njpatient says:

    although, I guess Kristen was looking for the bottom…

  324. Rich In NNJ says:

    Back to what I posted at 316

    “End of subprime write-downs in sight, S&P says”

    Isn’t this the same agency that rated the subprime CDO securities AAA?
    Kinda ruins their cred for me.

  325. njpatient says:

    330 Rich

    Also are still rating some companies whose names I can’t mention AAA

  326. BC Bob says:

    “End of subprime write-downs in sight, S&P says”

    Sounds like a PPT release.

  327. njpatient says:

    JLB, since you wouldn’t back up your assertion at 268, I thought I’d take a look myself. And looky what I found!

    “JLB Says:
    June 26th, 2007 at 9:48 am
    I am new to this blog but I thought I would share that we put our house in one of the “top” towns (sorry, but it gives you an idea that we are in one of those train towns) on the market for sale by owner and sold it in 3 weeks with a 5% price reduction in the negotiation phase. We were planning on buying if we saw a good deal or renting but we bought at a 5% price reduction. Before you all chop me with that falling knife theory let me say that have you ever tried to pick the bottom of the stock market? Yes, inventory is up but in this town the homes with any market value are selling and the only “inventory” are the problem properties and price issues. And don’t forget that people buy homes when they need them, not everyone can “be patient.” Okay, there it is.”

    I think that explains a LOT.

  328. 3b says:

    #333 njpatient: Me thinks JLB has buyers remorse at this point, and by coming to this site. he/she is trying to justify/rationalize their purchase as we go into the collapsing Spring market.

    If only us people would go out and buy, JLB could feel good again about their purchase, what with it being a train town and all.

  329. JLB says:

    Nothing positive ever comes from putting 3 guys in a photo booth. Nothing.
    OR, responding to NJPatient
    But you caught me…I sold a home! Wow, I’m feeling a little like Spitzer now…ummmmmmmmm…..
    Clearly someone whose “buying time horizon” has “nothing to do with how the market is” would not understand someone who sells a home at a considerable profit and then reinvests in another home, but don’t worry your little head as we are just fine because guess what good inventory is still hard to find in our town! I guess what that post does tell you is that I have been around long enough to read many posts!

  330. JLB says:

    #334: No buyers remorse as we bought a house that we plan to stay in a very long time, it is our dream house and we got a very good deal. And trust me, I don’t think you will go out and buy anytime soon or later as I think apartment 3b must be rent controlled.

  331. Jaw says:

    A stimulus package for buyers, has anyone heard of this yet?

    http://www.wsbtv.com/news/15575616/detail.html

    Does anyone in government seriously consider the effects of their actions anymore? Or is it all about sounding good?

  332. njpatient says:

    JLB
    “Nothing positive ever comes from putting 3 guys in a photo booth. Nothing.
    OR, responding to NJPatient”

    You asked me to give backup to one of my posts. I did. I take it you’re not willing (or able) to do the same?

  333. Jill says:

    d2b #209: I took an Authorware class out in Lower Gwynedd a few years ago and stayed in Fort Washington. Really nice area. Not only is there a fantastic Persian restaurant not too far away, but the town of Ambler has a great restored 1920’s movie theatre that shows indie flicks. And they have Wawa stores, which have great coffee in the morning.

  334. njpatient says:

    “Does anyone in government seriously consider the effects of their actions anymore? Or is it all about sounding good?”

    It is all about sounding good.

    This has been another edition of “Simple Answers to Simple Questions”

  335. njpatient says:

    I can’t wait to live near a Wawa. And I love all those Welsh names.

  336. BC Bob says:

    Make no mistake about it, this traim wreck will arrive at these train towns. Everybody from the H-B’s, Lenders, IB’s, Monolines, Carlyle’s, etc., have been pummeled. To think that a train town will be immune is naive and comical.

  337. 3b says:

    #320 JLB: I think the wheels are coming off your recent house purchase. If I can take the liberty I will speak for njpatient,as well as myself, no wheels coming off of us or our posts. Rational and calm (calm at least most of the time).

    You made your decesion, now live with it. Mo need to convince us to follow your path.

  338. njpatient says:

    Wanna see a post that the wheels came off of?? Check this one out!!

    JLB, you’ve been wrong for awhile:

    “JLB Says:
    July 24th, 2007 at 9:39 am
    Once again it might be nice to have that drink and do a little dance at your doomsday party but the reality is just because you want the real estate market to tank it will not. There has been a decline and there might be a little more in certain areas with certain properties but your across the board decline is not happening and will not happen. People who took out prime or subprime loans with risky terms can reset them with just a slight sting right now or sell and break even or even lose a little. The economy is good (jobs, income, spending, rates, etc.,etc.) The story here is that it will take an EVENT to make the market plunge the way this board wants it to. Inventory is not supporting your gloomy outlook (at least in north new jersey). Party On Dude!”

  339. njpatient says:

    “JLB Says:
    July 24th, 2007 at 9:54 am
    I notice Paulson’s comments on the dollar are reported on this board but what about when he said the housing market has bottomed?
    Oh and for the reality seekers, check out the inventory column on housingtracker.net and notice nationally where it used to be all green there is RED and if you notice the median price has not declined dramatically. Oh and for New Jersey what a surprise Newark and Edison inventory is negative week over week—wow, might that signal an upward curve in a true indicator?”

  340. njpatient says:

    “JLB Says:
    July 24th, 2007 at 10:38 am
    #71 skep-tic: How do you know that people are underwater?”

  341. JLB says:

    #343: Okay 3b, I will stop trying to feel better about owning a home and stop trying to get you to buy one since there is “mo need.” But if it is okay with you I will continue to say what I believe which is if you need a home or want to buy a home you can’t time the market precisely and you should evaluate all market conditions and not try to find a bottom. Someone who buys in my town this week might get a better deal than I did last year but if they need to sell in two years and I live in my house for 15 years then I will see the better side of asset appreciation, do you understand what I am saying? In simple terms, if you pick the right asset and hold it the right amount of time you will make money. And I could not tell anyone on this site that they should buy without knowing much more than a screen name and you should have the same hesitation about telling people they should not buy.

  342. 3b says:

    3336 JLB: Typical lashing out with the negative sterotypoe of all of us here living in apartments.Showing your true colors.

    Well I have a very nice 3bed 2 bath colonial, in a blue ribbon train town.

    And your right it is rent controlled, in that the owner has not raised the rent once sicne I sold my hosue at a ridiculous profit and moved to my rental HOUSE. How did you like your last property tax increase, get ready, another fat one coming your way.

  343. JLB says:

    I love it! Please NJPatient keep reading all my old posts and even better put them up because I love to read what I wrote! Yes, I have been wrong…oh well, I guess I was in good company with many others…but that’s okay because guess what time will tell….in five years when you have bought a house we will know if you make mistakes too or if you are always right….and I promise to admit it if I am wrong, will you?

  344. njpatient says:

    “JLB Says:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 10:48 am
    #79 Skep-tic: it is not just income related, I truly believe that the old indicators are just that old. people are changing their idea of success and it doesn’t always include paying off your house anymore.”

  345. skep-tic says:

    in fairness to JLB, this board’s consensus view of the housing market has been correct with respect to the manner in which it has collapsed, but off with respect to the timing.

    it is possible that the collapse is speeding up right now (indeed it looks likely). Good buying opportunities MAY emerge in the coming months, or it may make sense to keep waiting depending on where you’re looking.

  346. njpatient says:

    “Please NJPatient keep reading all my old posts and even better put them up because I love to read what I wrote! Yes, I have been wrong…”

    Not old, but worth repeating.

  347. JLB says:

    #348 3b: I didn’t say everyone here lived in apartments and I don’t even think it is a negative thing, chip on your shoulder? That’s great you have a house rental in a train town with blue ribbon schools but guess what you really don’t want to wish property tax increases on owners because as sure as I am sitting here you will get a rent increase because no owner is going to eat their ROI

  348. BC Bob says:

    “if you pick the right asset and hold it the right amount of time you will make money.”

    What’s the right asset and who determines the right amount of time?

  349. njpatient says:

    The paradigm is changing!!!

    “JLB Says:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 11:13 am
    #92 bairen: […] The paradigm is changing as tech did–not to say there won’t be hills or mountains along the way.”

  350. JLB says:

    #350 Patient: Okay, what do you disagree with? I think people can and do have different goals or do you think everyone has “a buying time horizon” that doesn’t depend on where the market is?

  351. JLB says:

    #352 Bairen: You do, with a good analysis of the market and your time horizon, etc.

  352. njpatient says:

    This really IS fun!

    JLB today:
    “JLB Says:
    March 13th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
    #348 3b: I didn’t say everyone here lived in apartments and I don’t even think it is a negative thing, chip on your shoulder?”

    JLB last summer:
    “JLB Says:
    July 23rd, 2007 at 10:29 am
    […] also, one might assume your screen name of 3b denotes your apartment number and might I suggest that just because you want the market to tank so you can afford to own, don’t count on it, get out and start looking for something you can afford or feel better about renting for now but don’t beat a dead horse in the hopes it will live again. Could the market decline? yes. But will you make it happen? No!”

    Seems like accusing 3b of being an apartment dweller is habit-forming, no?

  353. JLB says:

    #358: yes, I still think 3b is an apartment number, is there something wrong with apartment dwellers? next….

  354. JLB says:

    Wow Patient I feel like we are getting to know each other…not like Spitzer and Kristen…but getting closer…

  355. grim says:

    I own an apartment, is that any better than renting one?

    I rent an apartment as well.

    So, I guess I have a unique perspective here.

    I’ll tell you that I feel no different sleeping in the one I own, versus the one I rent.

  356. njpatient says:

    359 JLB
    So long as we agree that you’re calling 3b a liar, since he’s repeatedly said otherwise.

    And those of us who have been here a bit longer than yourself remember when he was “bergenbubbleburst”. Note the 3 Bs.

  357. JLB says:

    #362 Grim: Well, you should feel different about owning one and renting one. You get tax benefits and possible capital gain when you sell it vs. the one you rent which you have no control over the rent and you don’t get tax benefits and it could be sold out from under you.

  358. JLB says:

    NJPatient, who cares about 3b’s house rental or prior screen name, let’s get back to posting all of my wisdom….can you repost some of my comments on Obama, especially about how he is devoted to the black value system that is in his church doctrine…

  359. victorian says:

    JLB = “Just the Last B” – burst?

  360. Artemis says:

    NJ Patient, I am begging you to stop talking to JLB.

  361. 3b says:

    #360 JLB No 3b is not an apartment number, as njpatient said its short for bergenbubbleburst;easier for typing.

  362. 3b says:

    #364 JLB Do not forget to factor in alllll those property taxes you will be paying over the years, plus alllllll that interest. Especially if you over paid, which is more than likely

    Then you can determine what your true capital gain is. By the way the tax benefit is over stated, but you go ahead yourself and do the numbers, it might surprise, perhaps even depress you.

    And yes your right in that a rental can be sold out from under you. In my case I am forunate not to have that worry.

    Bur you know what it is also quite nice to have the ability to up and leave if you like.Not so easy when you own;especially now.

  363. HEHEHE says:

    Hmmm, S&P says there’s no more writedowns coming, is that the same S&P that claims AMBAC and MBIA are AAA rated?

  364. par4156 says:

    3B,
    Re:213…State Government. 124 Halsey Street.

  365. par4156 says:

    NJ Patient,
    Re #260, I hope everything turns out ok. I’m a double dipper (another job with the federal gov’t) but I really like working for the State much better. Plus, my federal job is much more dangerous…and I’d have to go full time to make up the difference in compensation :(

  366. 3b says:

    #359 njpatient: Could the market decline? yes. But will you make it happen? No!”

    I especially like that comment, could the market decline. The poor dear was under the illusion even as recently as last July that somehow the market was not declining,very sad.

    The there is the line about me and others wishing for the market to decline, (as if could do that) It declined under its own dead weight, any reasonable person could have and should have seen it coming.

    Then find something you can afford. Oh if only the poor dear knew.

    Then of course the apartment thing. How many so called housing bulls have come and gone with that silly belief that we all on this site are huddled in dank, dark, cold apartments, sending our children to gun infested schools, etc. etc.

    And finally this person has purchased, what 8 or 9 months ago, and yet they feel the need to return here and post.

    I wonder why? To educate us,cure us, to make themselves somehow feel better because perhaps they are sorry, and concerned that they should have waited with their own purchase?

    One does wonder.

  367. 3b says:

    #354 JLB am sitting here you will get a rent increase because no owner is going to eat their ROI.

    Yeah well you are wrong again, cause he has been eating it for the last 3 years. Does not care, has owned the house for years, just wants someone in it he knows and trusts until he figures out what he wants to do retirement wise.

    He is also no dope and knows I have the upper hand, lots of rental houses and condos in my blue ribbon town to choose from.

  368. 3b says:

    #352 skeptic: True, off on the timing. However I and many others have repeatedly said that the longer it too to happen, the uglier and mor painful it would be.

    I think we are being rpoved right on that point as well, because its getting uglier and more painful.

  369. par4156 says:

    mailings twice a week from my mortgage banker…begging for a refinance. Financial companies planners offering their wisdom because “life is about more than money”, my bank wants me to borrow for a “Spring Loan” (HELOC). What the hell is happening here? It’s like the spam in my filter mailbox. I need a job writing direct/mass mail marketing software. I’m getting more financial marketing mail than when I was a Sophmore in college!

  370. 3b says:

    #350 JLB We were not wrong just early. I will tell you that if you sell your house in 5 years, you will not get a dime more than you paid for it. Guranteed.

  371. 3b says:

    #348 and you should have the same hesitation about telling people they should not buy.

    That is your opinion. Mine is based on fact and past history. Sadly 2 people I did counsel to wait bough over the last 3 years,and they are very sorry.

  372. par4156 says:

    Re: JLB. The thing is – renters, owners, realtors, bankers, homemakers…most people that post here, no matter how much skin they have in the game or how the skin is in the game, know what is happening with the housing market (and stock market, commodities, FX, etc) and had an early idea because of Grim’s initiative.

  373. alia says:

    re: PA… I spent many happy years in central PA… Penn State University has culture, Centre Hall has the longest running Grange Fair in the country (funnel cakes, mmmmm), the mountains are short enough to climb without gear and the schools close on the first day of buck season. Not commutable to anywhere, but really pretty.

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