This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.
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From Bloomberg:
New Jersey’s Corzine Seeks First Wind-Power Farm Off East Coast
New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine wants his state to be the first in the U.S. Northeast to build an electricity-generating wind farm off the Atlantic coast.
Five companies are vying for $19 million in grants and the right to put as many as 200 windmills within 20 miles (32 kilometers) of the Jersey Shore. The state plans to select a winner in August, said Lance Miller, chief of policy and planning for the Board of Public Utilities.
Vote early and often. -Mayor Richard Daley
From the WSJ:
Mortgage Firms Cool to Principal-Cut Plan
By RUTH SIMON and NICK TIMIRAOS
May 9, 2008; Page A3
A major provision of the housing-market legislation passed by the House Thursday is getting a lukewarm reception from the mortgage industry.
The measure, which is aimed at reducing foreclosures, would encourage mortgage companies to reduce the principal on troubled loans. In exchange, the Federal Housing Administration would pay off the current loan and issue the borrower a new FHA-backed mortgage. Struggling homeowners would get lower monthly payments to increase chances they could avoid foreclosure.
The latest effort comes as mortgage delinquencies are climbing and other government efforts have come under criticism for doing too little to help most borrowers. Moody’s Economy.com estimates that nearly 2.5 million homeowners will lose their homes in 2008 and 2009 because of problems managing their mortgages.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the proposal, which would be voluntary for mortgage companies, could help refinance loans for 500,000 borrowers over the next four years.
But trade groups that represent mortgage companies and investors say the provision might not help as many borrowers as some expect. They view the write-down provision as one of several options they might use to assist troubled homeowners. “I don’t believe this would be a tool that would be used significantly,” said Tom Deutsch, deputy executive director of the American Securitization Forum, which represents mortgage-servicing companies and investors who buy mortgages that have been packaged into securities.
David Kittle, chairman-elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said at a conference earlier this week that he sees no rush by mortgage bankers to write down loans.
Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value. Borrowers would have to be at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments to qualify for the program. The bill excludes investors and those who lied about their income on their loan applications.
Mr. Deutsch says that in most cases, investors who hold mortgage-backed securities would be better off with other alternatives, such as temporarily reducing the borrower’s interest rate or extending the term of the loan, in part because those leave open the chance that investors will get a larger return if the borrower gets back on track and home prices rebound. Mortgage companies are more likely to participate in the write-down program if they expect home prices to continue to decline steeply, he notes, increasing the chances of larger losses.
From Bloomberg:
Rebates Won’t Spark U.S. Economy as Prices Soar, Survey Shows
The Bush administration’s tax rebates won’t prevent the U.S. economy from stagnating in the second quarter as soaring food and fuel bills hurt consumers, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
“Consumers have gone into the bunkers,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board, the New York- based research group that tracks confidence. They “fear that their budgets are getting squeezed tighter and tighter.”
The economy will grow at a 0.1 percent annual rate from April to June, the least since the 2001 recession, according to the median estimate of 54 economists surveyed from May 2 to May 8. Household spending may rise at a 0.5 percent pace, half the first quarter’s gain and the smallest increase in 17 years.
Economists also said the economy would grow less in the second half of the year than forecast last month, even as the odds of a recession came down. After paying the higher costs of food and gasoline, the $117 billion in rebates may leave little extra as individual taxpayers are limited to $600.
“A $600 check isn’t enough to turn things around,” said Goldstein. “It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it’s not going to be rebuilt real fast.”
JB, looks like you are leading the pack in the Real Estate Blog contest. I noticed that there is two separate entries for your blog and the votes will get split. Not sure if this can be rectified.
Rank 1. New Jersey Real Estate Report, by James Bednar. Votes: 304
Rank 8: NJ Real Estate Report, by James Bednar. Votes: 19.
Vote early and often. -Mayor Richard Daley
Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.
From MarketWatch:
Citigroup may sell $400 billion of non-core assets: report
Citigroup will consider selling around $400 billion of non-core assets as part of a plan to slash costs and reinvigorate profit growth, according to a report in the Financial Times citing people familiar with the situation. The newspaper said CEO Vikram Pandit is likely to tell an analyst meeting that around 20% of Citigroup’s $2 trillion balance sheet consists of legacy positions, including entire businesses and trading positions outside its core focus of commercial, consumer and investment banking. Selling the assets will take years and some may never be sold, the report said.
From the Asbury Park Press:
High-rise builder lowering his site
Metro Homes and the city have reached agreement to give the builder time to work out its financial problems on the partly built beachfront Esperanza high-rise. Metro would come back with new money and build what is expected to be a less extravagant structure.
According to the agreement, Metro Homes is negotiating a bank agreement with CapitalOne — the bank that holds the first mortgage on the project — to get enough time to cure defaults.
“Not only is the Esperanza in trouble with the city but with their construction lender,”
said city redevelopment lawyer Thomas Hastie.
Metro Homes President Dean Geibel is “coming up with $2 million to keep this viable,” Hastie said. “The goal of this agreement is that by the end of the year, we’ll know what the new project will look like and we’ll know he has the means and ability to complete it. Everyone’s excited about it.”
Metro closed down the construction site Dec. 7, citing the housing slump and mortgage woes.
From Bloomberg:
UBS’s Exit Strikes at Heart of Municipal-Bond Market: Joe Mysak
For anyone who remembered the last time the industry fell apart, the news was stunning: UBS AG is getting out of the municipal bond business.
The move, part of a massacre slashing 5,500 jobs, was framed in other terms when it was announced on May 6. The bank was going to sell the municipal department. UBS was getting out of the business “on the institutional side,” as Jerker Johansson, chief executive officer of the investment-banking unit, put it in a conference call. UBS would move some traders over to the wealth-management division.
Most of the people in the department knew something bad was about to happen. The day before the announcement, the headhunters started reporting that they were getting calls from people at UBS’s municipal bond department.
And so another round of cutbacks in the municipal bond industry begins. It has been a while.
UBS, which was the third-ranked underwriter of municipals in 2007, may be the first firm in this cycle to announce its exit, like Salomon Brothers did so spectacularly back in 1987. There will be blood.
From CNBC:
Lenders May Have to Disclose More About Rates
Lenders would be required to tell consumers when they are being offered less favorable terms based on poorer credit scores under new rules proposed on Thursday by the Federal Reserve and the Federal Trade Commission.
The rules would require a “risk-based pricing” notice to consumers when they receive more expensive credit terms than those offered to individuals with better credit histories.
“Under these rules, a risk-based pricing notice would generally be provided to the consumer after terms of the credit have been set, but before the consumer becomes contractually obligated on the credit transaction,” the Fed and the FTC said in a statement.
From the Daily Record:
Bill would open rail corridor to private train service
A bill introduced in the House on Thursday seeks to explicitly allow private companies to compete to provide train service in the Northeast Corridor for the first time.
The bipartisan bill also proposes to provide $14.3 billion to Amtrak over the next five years and boost federal investment to use high-speed trains like those used in Europe and Japan.
The centerpiece of the bill, according to Florida Rep. John Mica, the ranking Republican on the House ranking Republican on the House transportation committee, calls for opening up the Washington-to-Boston route and 10 others across the country to private competitors.
Under that scenario, the nation’s taxpayer-subsidized passenger rail provider would have to outbid its privately funded rivals to run trains on Amtrak’s most heavily traveled and consistently profitable route.
Amtrak and NJ Transit trains travel on the Northeast Corridor, serving thousands of passengers every day.
“It’s pretty revolutionary. The private sector can develop, finance, construct and operate,” said Mica, a staunch Amtrak critic in the past, after a news conference announcing the legislation.
“Amtrak would still control the corridor as far as train traffic (is concerned),” he said.
BC,
You think the lumber guy is still around?
Bad year for B.C. sawmills only going to get worse: consultant
The B.C. sawmilling industry is heading for a record bad year and was warned Thursday to expect “more blood on the floor.”
…
“Even though it seems like we are reading an obituary weekly about sawmills shutting down, the supply is not reducing quickly enough to keep up with reducing demand.”
…
“It’s going to be a record low. Worse than 1991. The first quarter results just came out and they are bad.”
There will be no recovery before 2010, he said.
“It will be 2010 before we get out of the basement.”
From the NY Times:
Bad Investments and a $7.8 Billion Loss at A.I.G.
The fortunes of American International Group, one of the world’s biggest insurance companies, rise and fall on precise calculations of risk. Last quarter, those calculations went seriously awry.
In the worst three months of the company’s 89-year history, A.I.G. lost $7.81 billion, primarily from bad investments in complex financial instruments. The loss of $3.09 a share, reported after the market’s close Thursday, was four times worse than Wall Street analysts had expected.
The venerable insurer now joins the ranks of other industry giants that have suffered huge losses because of the recent tumult in the financial markets. This is the first time A.I.G. has lost money in two consecutive quarters.
…
Shares of the company closed at $44.15, down 93 cents, or 2 percent. In after-hours trading, A.I.G. shares fell another 7 percent, and the ratings agencies Standard & Poor’s and Fitch lowered the company’s credit ratings.
From USA Today:
Mortgage crisis seeps to prime loans
The first concrete evidence that delinquencies on mortgage bills have spread well beyond those with subpar credit shows that even prime borrowers have increasingly fallen behind on their house payments.
The figures remain relatively small so far. But if they rise further, delinquencies on prime loans — given only to those with good credit — could prolong the housing crisis.
About 2.3% of prime loans were 60 days’ past due in February, the highest level in at least a decade, according to data from FirstAmerican CoreLogic LoanPerformance. That’s up from 1.4% a year ago.
Some economists, such as Brian Bethune of Global Insight and Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, say they think delinquencies on prime loans have likely risen further since then.
“We’re seeing the prime area coming under pressure, with delinquencies moving up,” Bethune says. “We’re in uncharted territory, and it’s definitely been affecting the prime market, although it’s still not anywhere as severe as in the subprime market.”
Email/Call Bush to stop housing bailout!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/tax-rebates-robbing-peter-to-pay-paul.html
From the AP:
Housing aid bill faces veto by President Bush
Democrats’ plans to help hundreds of thousands of homeowners struggling with rising subprime mortgage rates and plummeting house values could be sidetracked by President Bush’s threatened veto and the backing of many congressional Republicans.
Opponents of the plan say more prudent homebuyers and renters shouldn’t be called upon to bail out borrowers who gambled on ever-rising housing prices and lost.
“The American people don’t want to make their neighbor’s payment when they’re having trouble making their own,” said Rep. Randy Neugebauer, R-Texas.
“You think the lumber guy is still around?’
Classic. My fav, along with the monkeys reading the chart.
Where else can you get this entertainment. I have a hunch, he/she, was shorting oil at 70-80?
Well that short sale @ Maxwell in Hoboken sure seems to have scared the “investors”.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/search/rfs?query=maxwell&minAsk=min&maxAsk=max
It’s gone from 1-2 listings/day on craigslist to like 7.
From MarketWatch:
Oil futures break through $125, approach $126
Oil futures blitzed past the $125 a barrel mark in electronic trading as New York traders started to get in, rising as high as $125.98 a barrel. In more recent trade, oil traded at $125.55, up $1.86. Oil futures have climbed nearly $10 this week.
grim (3)-
“David Kittle, chairman-elect of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said at a conference earlier this week that he sees no rush by mortgage bankers to write down loans.”
Wow. What a shock.
“The Bush administration’s tax rebates”
It wasn’t too long ago that Paulson pressed the Chinese to increase the bands on the yuan. In conjunction with this, Paulson stated that Americans will do their part by increasing their savings rate. Now the half-wits, sorry for the compliment, decide that the same drunken consumer, buried in debt, need more spending $. The wizards of DC are viewed by the world as goons.
Citi [7],
It’s a dysfunctional family. You have a hedgie running it, who knows absolutely nothing about Consumer Banking and Global Wealth Management. Before it’s over, 30-60K will lose their job.
Bergabe vs. Trichet. How are you betting?
BC (21)-
Our empire is crumbling, brought low by an epidemic of stupid.
Grim 16 Do Dems have the votes to override the veto I wonder. Will the Senate Republicans cave in. Hope not.
Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world. Yes this just what Israel wants, more money going to countries sworn to wipe them out. You can’t make this stuff up.
Sorry that’s Clot 24 More coffee!
Mikeinwaiting Says:
May 9th, 2008 at 8:09 am
Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world.
MIW: Rev. Wright?
#6 grim
“Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.”
Is that a quote from Hillary from around the start of 2007?
“Unnecessary, we’ve got an 8 to 1 lead.”
No time to get complacent. Bury the suckers. Go for the knockout.
U.S. crude oil futures rose to a fresh record high of $125.98 a barrel on Friday. They were trading $2.11 higher at $125.80 by 7:09 a.m. EDT.
Mike (26)-
I hear there’s a lot of that kind of thinking in Sussex Co.
Cindy,
Here is the Thaler deck:
https://njrereport.com/files/thaler_nudge.pdf
I need a bit more time to put my thoughts together. Sitting at the lecture, I couldn’t help but draw parallels to some of core tenets of industrial psychology and design. This work, to me, seems like a logical extension of those concepts into the realm of decision making.
I’ve got the book in hand now, and was pleased to see a quote by Don Norman on the back flap, the author of The Design of Everyday Things. If you haven’t read it, I’d suggest reading it after Nudge, I’m sure you’ll immediately understand the comparison I’m trying to make.
#18,
SHORT SALE at $699,000 MAXWELL PL. for 1BR?
How about $99,000 because that’s all it’s worth? Heeee Heeeee
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – In a sign of weaker global growth, both imports and exports fell sharply in March, driving the U.S. trade deficit down to $58.2 billion, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Nominal imports fell 2.9% to $206.7 billion, the largest decline in more than six years, despite record oil prices. Nominal exports dropped to $148.5 billion, the biggest drop in nearly three years, despite higher prices for U.S. farm products. After adjusting for inflation, the real trade gap was the lowest since November 2003. The weaker-than-expected trade gap implies an upward revision to the 0.6% first estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth.
33 Grim
Maybe I’m used to presentations being more detailed but I’d need more info to make sense of it.
Clot It was in Morris talking to a fellow at
breakfast the other day. In Sussex they have
not even gotten to that one yet. Behind the curve & then some, but you can buy a nice house real cheap. Beautiful place to, if you can get to work from here it’s a great move. Schools good in most towns, taxes low compared to BC. 10 years coming up from Hudson would never go back.
So I’ve been building a Jungle Gym for my 2 year old for the past 4 days. Decided to get a “build-your-own” set from Toys’r’Us rather then spending $3-5k on a set from places that deliver & install them. (BTW: If you haven’t seen prices on these megasets, don’t be surprised when they quote you $7-10k for a fully loaded set!)
…I’m on Phase 11 of 43 and I think it was easier to build my own house.
None the less, the excitement on my son’s face when he sees it complete will make it all worth it.
In 5 years when my son is bored with it, I’m going to list it on the MLS. It’s got major curb appeal.
-Richie
Here is the Thaler deck:
I’d like to hear more about the “fly on the urinal” expairment
Richie I don’t envie you that job, those things are a nightmare. But as you say it’s worth it. Good luck.
Tent cities spring up in LA
Too bad NJ weather does not support tent living.
Mr Mortgage – HERE COMES THE ALT-A CRISIS
Nice explanation. I think next word for News Papers – Option ARM.
Mr Mortgage – Is Now The Right Time To Buy A Home?
#37
Sussex really isn’t like that now, if it ever was. I like that stereotype though because it keeps alot of ignorant people from moving here.
Admittedly, I’ve only lived here for 16 years so I’m still a newcomer from “down below.”
make that 500B!
Citigroup to cut about $500 bln in noncore assets
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/citigroup-cut-about-500-bln/story.aspx?guid=%7B3BF42C24%2D7972%2D40E6%2D96BD%2D26B472C7B27D%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN
The fly experiment is a good example of Thaler’s Nudge concept.
By etching an image of a housefly in a urinal, the experimenters found that they could reduce “spillage”. Why? Because men aimed for the fly.
The key here is that the experimenters framed the context surrounding the decision to aim in such a way that the subject had a choice. They were not manipulated, forced, or fined into aiming, they just aimed. The “fly” nudged them to do it.
It really is a very different concept than framing the situation in such a way to manipulate the subject into choosing or doing what the experimenter wants them to do (advertising?). Contrast this with accomplishing the same outcome by putting a ring around the outside rim of the urinal that electrocutes the user if they “miss”. (Although I think Mythbusters debunked this one).
Mobile park units help toward COAH quota
The amendment calls for including 100 units at the 130-unit Pine TreeMobile Home Park on Route 35 in the borough’s affordable housing plan to meet the affordable housing quota as determined by COAH.
It’s Dubai, Shanghai, Mumbai or Bye-Bye.
“Citigroup Inc. (C) may be based in New York, but it’s gaining more of a Middle East influence.”
“The financial conglomerate on Thursday added to its close history with the region by sending Alberto Verme, co-head of its investment bank, to Dubai. Verme will be the first major U.S. investment-banking chief stationed in Dubai and the latest in a series of ties made between Citigroup and the region’s growing financial community and clout.”
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200805081149DOWJONESDJONLINE000890_FORTUNE5.htm
Against the grain 44 Sussex is rather large, I’m pretty far up. Sparta is normal,
the town of Sussex on the other hand fits my view to the tee. Yes “down below” you are a Sussex County resident!I thought I was alone on the board from here. Grim how about some Sussex #s for ATG & me.
# 3 grim: Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value.
This is what I was talking about yesterday evening. So if the house is appraaised at 500k and the mtg is 500K, a 15% write down is 75K.
Should not potentail buyers be factoring in the same discount? Why would I pay 500K if I know others in a similiar houses are only paying 425K?
All theoretical of course, but what does this do to the market. If this bill is passes, I will be factoring this in on any bid I make on a house.
# 24 “Our empire is crumbling, brought low by an epidemic of stupid.”
I just love the folks who point to “American exceptionalism” and, essentially, argue that because the United States rose from nothing into a world military and economic power that we will always remain so regardless of our actions. Such a position ignores the fact that: we were blessed with abundant natural resources, which were cheap to extract from the land and the seas, and that this is no longer the case; we invested in basic infrastructure and kept upgrading it to achieve and maintain the best infrastructure in the world, and we no longer do this; we accumulated wealth and bought-up resources and means of production in other nations in furtherance of our own economic interest; we became the source of financing to others and, in the process, got to call the shots because, after all, it was our money; we maintained a favorable balance of trade and lived within our means. And, in the wake of WWII we had the playing field to ourselves.
These conditions no longer exist and yet a huge percentage of the population seems to think that greatness achieved by one’s grandparents and parents automatically guarantees perpetual greatness for them selves and their children – regardless of whether the nation abandons the course that led to its greatness.
Folks, military power is dependent on economic power; if we do not get our economic house in order, our military power will shrink faster than British military power did after WWII.
Homeowner bailouts and “stimulus checks” are symptoms of deep economic rot and we just do not seem to get it. We stand at a precipice and, I for one, would appreciate elected officials to come clean and lay things on the line in unambiguous terms. If we do not change our behavior, and soon, even those of us who have been prudent will get caught up in a maelstrom that I don’t think any of us can fully envision.
As cocky as we have been in recent years, I don’t expect the rest of the world to be kind to us should the storm come.
# 51 in moderation
#50
The town of Sussex has gentrified quite a bit since I moved to the county (correction – I’ve lived here 22 years, not 16 years).
There was a time that one bar fight in Sussex Boro would mean that there was no State Police coverage for hours in the rest of the county while the fight was sorted out.
On the other hand, take a look at Branchville, a beautiful little town.
WSJ Article,
Mortgage Firms Cool to Principal-Cut Plan
By RUTH SIMON and NICK TIMIRAOS
A major provision of the housing-market legislation passed by the House Thursday is getting a lukewarm reception from the mortgage industry.
The measure, which is aimed at reducing foreclosures, would encourage mortgage companies to reduce the principal on troubled loans. In exchange, the Federal Housing Administration would pay off the current loan and issue the borrower a new FHA-backed mortgage. Struggling homeowners would get lower monthly payments to increase chances they could avoid foreclosure.
Mortgage companies that choose to participate in the proposed plan would be required to write down the value of a delinquent loan by 15% from the home’s current appraised value. Borrowers would have to be at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments to qualify for the program. The bill excludes investors and those who lied about their income on their loan applications.
But mortgage companies may face pressure to use the program. “I want to put the servicers on notice,” Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), a co-sponsor of the bill, said at a hearing last month. “If we see a widespread refusal on the part of servicers to cooperate voluntarily in what we see as an important economic problem…they can expect much tougher regulation in the future.”
“On the other hand, take a look at Branchville, a beautiful little town.”
ATG [52],
My brother lives there, on the lake. He trades the markets on his dock.
Dow predictions for the day?
Down 150 is what I’m going with.
Sorry about earlier article repost.
(33) Grim…
I have the book on order…looking forward to the read. I was captivated by the “opt out” idea for organ donation when I read the reviews.
Reading the card’s conclusion, “Humans are imperfect. We need all the help we can get.”
“It is impossible to improve choices without restricting options.”
“Don’t use bans and mandates – just nudge.”
I’m reminded of my daughters and their outlandish daily clothing choices when they were small. I wanted them to be “in charge” and begin learning to make choices for themselves but invariably they’d choose some striped top to go with their checked pants. It finally occured to me I needed to “restrict” their choices – they still chose what to wear that day but from a “limited” selection. (The stuff I selected to choose from was going to match no matter what.)But….
no complaining – they WERE choosing what to wear that day….
Thanks for the post. I’ll save “The Design of Everyday Things” for next time…
#34 Frank:SHORT SALE at $699,000 MAXWELL PL. for 1BR?
700k for a 1 bedroom condo in Hoboken? Insane!!!
# 4 ““A $600 check isn’t enough to turn things around,” said Goldstein. “It took so much to wilt consumer confidence, that it’s not going to be rebuilt real fast.””
How about $1,000.00 for everyone just before Christmas? Or better yet, we can send everyone $1,000,000.00. Then there will be no poverty. “Every man a king, every man a king, for you can be a millionaire.” Hughey Long would be proud, his vision come to reality.
# 8 “Metro would come back with new money and build what is expected to be a less extravagant structure.”
Maybe they should just errtet a modern-day Hooverville.
# 10 “The rules would require a “risk-based pricing” notice to consumers when they receive more expensive credit terms than those offered to individuals with better credit histories.”
What am I missing? Isn’t this just the essence of banking?
Economist article,
Congress can’t stop people losing their homes, but it can do a little to help
It is not hard to see why politicians are so keen to help. For all the hope that the worst may be over in financial markets, the housing mess is getting nastier. Nationally, house prices have fallen between 3% and 13% depending on which index you look at. And they have further to sink. The stock of unsold homes is huge and the ratio of prices to rents suggests that property is still expensive (see article). Some 1.5m households went into foreclosure in 2007, up 50% from the year before. And with 9m people owing more than their house is worth, that figure is likely to soar.
Criticism notwithstanding, the plan is hardly a bail-out. Lenders would have to write down their loans to 85% of the current value of a house. Borrowers would pay a fee for the insurance and give up a share of any later price rise to the government. By reinsuring more mortgages, the government would take on more risk, but the bean-counters at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) put the explicit subsidy at about $1.7 billion over five years—a fiscal rounding error rather than a reckless handout. Yet because the plan involves little government cash and is voluntary, its effects will be modest, helping half a million households at most avoid foreclosure, according to the CBO. For all the hoopla, the FHA plan will be a useful addition to the anti-foreclosure tool-kit. But it will do less than its supporters hope—or its detractors fear.
A useful counterpart to the FHA plan would be a federal effort to streamline the states’ convoluted foreclosure laws. You will not be surprised to hear that no politician has supported that.
# 11 What do people think about this? I know Mica pretty well, so I don’t know that I have the ability to look at the proposal clearly.
#35 BC Bob: The weaker-than-expected trade gap implies an upward revision to the 0.6% first estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product growth.
And this will be spun as good news.
I don’t understand Asbury.
Yes, the Metro stoppage was a major setback.
But to let them continue building just for the sake of building? Does Asbury really need a second-rate project (or worse)?
Lowering the cost is easy, strip the building of any architectural merit as well as quality.
This is a decision they’ll need to live with for a long time, they better be sure this is the right direction for Asbury.
I’m not so sure it is.
Americans split on homeowner bailout – poll
The poll finds 49% of Americans believe such homeowners should receive special treatment, while 48% feel homeowners should not get assistance. Three percent of those polled had no opinion.
A tenet I follow is “what you pay attention to will grow.”
In a classroom setting, the idea is to downplay poor behavior and find what is going well – focus on that….build on that…
Have high expectations…
Taken into our financial world, the government is planning to reward (focus) on those behaving poorly and punish (ignore) those who followed the rules. Not sound “behavioral economics” in my opinion.
speaking of empires.
from the Baltimore chronicle
Portrait of an Oil-Addicted Former Superpower
How Rising Oil Prices Are Obliterating America’s Superpower Status
by Michael T. Klare
Nineteen years ago, the fall of the Berlin Wall effectively eliminated the Soviet Union as the world’s other superpower. Yes, the USSR as a political entity stumbled on for another two years, but it was clearly an ex-superpower from the moment it lost control over its satellites in Eastern Europe.
Less than a month ago, the United States similarly lost its claim to superpower status when a barrel crude oil roared past $110 on the international market, gasoline prices crossed the $3.50 threshold at American pumps, and diesel fuel topped $4.00. As was true of the USSR following the dismantling of the Berlin Wall, the USA will no doubt continue to stumble on like the superpower it once was; but as the nation’s economy continues to be eviscerated to pay for its daily oil fix, it, too, will be seen by increasing numbers of savvy observers as an ex-superpower-in-the-making.
# 66 The city has been down for so long thay are grasping at anything. It is sad. They should not allow any building on that first beach block. It will forever destroy the best draw the city has.
I once knew a guy who had very low self esteem and had not dated much. The first woman who showed moderate interest in him (no prize, and seriously flawed psyche) swept him off his feet and he raced to marry her because something better might never come his way. He has been a miserable wrech ever since. Asbury is, in essence, doing the same thing. It is sad.
ATG 53 As you have been here a lot longer than I you have seen this. Coming from Hudson 10 yr ago you can imagine my culture shock. I guess it was worse so I defer but plenty of WT on streets of Sussex for my tastes still. Been over to Ogdensburg lately
hit the local bar on main or Docs on 23 between Hamburg & Sussex. Really scary. If you stay in your own little piece of the world it’s fine but if you go around you run into these people. Try the Double S dinner on RTE 23 good food, good prices just people watch & listen, backwards plus.
“And this will be spun as good news.”
3b,
Exactly. Like usual, they’ll get their jollies off on the headline and ignore the details.
shore 64
any expansion and or improvement in mass transit is a very big step in the right direction. the size of the step depends on the level of incompetence and graft involved
Materially changing the design of the project will likely mean that existing contract holders will pull out of the project. Why close on a contract for something that is different from what you intended to purchase?
This will be impossible to overcome, new potential buyers will be weary to sign on with Metro, for fear that they’ll stop work again.
Asbury should pull the plug.
#63 SG
“Lenders would have to write down their loans to 85% of the current value of a house.”
Am I reading this right. Does that mean if someone took out a zero down mtg for 500k and the house dropped in value to 420k the lender is supposed to write down the loan balance to 357k?
Why would a lender want to guarantee themselves a 30% loss before fees? Where’s the lender’s incentive, especially if the loan has been securitized?
# 72 AND, people more concerned with what LaBron or Sahaq did in a basketball game, or who is the points leader in Winston Cup standinge, or yadd yadda, will not notice the bull$h!t spin.
#66 – I think they’re just trying to prevent a skeletal hulk from sitting on the beach for another 20yrs. They know how that story ends already.
You are right, the beach is their best draw and they are grasping at straws. How many of the existing condos built in the last 2 yrs are even occupied?
3b, (59)
700k for a 1 bedroom condo in Hoboken? Insane!!!
To be fair, it is almost 1200 sq. ft. But you should check out what some of the other units are asking.
Youtube Lobbying.
Housing Bailouts
YouTube can be great tool for Gen Y folks to participate in political discussions. I think this is where MSM is lacking significantly. Few weeks ago, I was giving an idea to Internet portal site product manager, on having online video debate with Bloggers and Experts.
#66 grim,
Who would want to buy luxury condos in Asbury? It would be an incredibly long commute to NY or the corporate parks in North Jersey and there’s no way I would send my kids to its public school.
I’d much rather focus on Deal, Avon, the Elberon section of Long Branch, or Manasquan.
Cindy,
I like the cut of your jib.
#71
I was at Doc’s on 23 a couple of months ago and had a great time. It was karioke night and saw one outstanding young lady singer. The place was packed everyone was drinking, holding their booze well, polite and well behaved- my definition of real class – but maybe I’m just high class white trash myself.
Ket,
I am all for high-speed rail. It is absurd that one cannot travel from Chicago to NY or Boston or Washington in about 5-6 hours via train. When we can, the need for airport construction will end. Downtown to downtown has a big appeal to this citizen. At this point, if a drive takes seven hours or less, I drive instead of fly. Bythe time one takes into account driving to an airport, parking, getting checked in, stripping down for security, the flkight time, getting a rental car or limo at the other end (not to mention the liklihood of delays), it just does not make time sense to fly. If there were a high-speed rail alternative, I would be all for it.
ATG/MIW,
Ever go to Gyp’s?
84
Yep, never had a problem there. I think its for sale now if your looking for an investment. A couple of other decent, unfancy places around your brother are the Layton Hotel and Third Base Pub.
# 77 We looked at a penthouse unit at Weasley Lake last year. It was lovely, and had a huge pattio overlooking both the lake and the ocean. BUT, across the street was the South Bronk, circa 1975. The city would do well to focus on townhomes and 3-4 story condos (maybe go for an Art Deco theme) priced in the 300-400k range.
I have no issue walking the boards over there during the day, but a few blocks west is still dangerous in the daylight. At night? Fuggettabout it.
The commute is hell, but there are already so many people down the Shore making even longer ones that it is not the deal breaker. Buying into a city where there are so many serious threats to safety and economic viability is THE problem.
28 chi
“Clot 21 Most have no clue. Had a guy blame high fuel prices on the Jews controlling the world.MIW: Rev. Wright?”
Or Billy Graham, Pat Robertson, Falwell, Hagee, etc. That list is long.
We’ve got a lot of deeply sick “preachers” in this country.
BC No never heard of it not in my neck of the woods. I’m north of your bro a ways. 15 min to NY or PA from my loc.
Catch you all later time to go to work O bother.
I was at Doc’s on 23 a couple of months ago and had a great time.
If this talk ever moves down 23 more towards Jiggs, I’m in.
(81) Thanks, Rich..and thanks for all of the info.. I turned to this site last year to learn more about economics but obviously, a person learns so much more…
and laughs..
From Reuters:
Fremont General says may file for bankruptcy
Fremont General Corp FMNT.PK, which is selling assets after regulators ordered it last year to stop subprime mortgage lending, on Friday said it may file for bankruptcy protection.
The company, which has already agreed to sell substantially all assets of its Fremont Investment & Loan unit, said that absent another “viable transaction” for remaining assets, it expects to file for Chapter 11 protection from creditors.
“Median closing prices on homes on Long Island and in Queens have gone up for the first time in months, just as the house-buying season goes into full swing.
According to the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island, which also covers Queens, it went up in April to $415,000 from $409,000 in March. Some agents had predicted the median closing figure would fall to a four-year low of $400,000.”
http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzprice0508,0,7008718.story
BC ATG How about we hit DOC’s,BC get your bro & come on up. Sussex gtg. ATG I’m not afraid for my safety just a lot of rednecks round here. Have a drink there one afternoon it’s different.
#86 – I know the area to the west looks scary, I’m not too sure how bad it is in actuality though (crime stats, etc.). Of course, to a great degree the perception rules on this.
Even without the town-homes and condos there are so many houses for sale in Asbury currently I can’t see the justification for building anything.
I know the places you were looking at. There was a lot of very hip/pretty places built in Asbury over the past 3 years or so hoping the town would become a Hoboken/JC/Billyburg. They unfortunately priced it as if it already was there.
No gentrification process, straight from burned out dive to $800k lofts.
I looked at a 1100sf soho type loft in Asbury about 2 years ago. A really cool place but they wanted $600k for it which was absurd. All I could think after hearing the price was; “This is going to be some real nice section 8 housing in 3 years”.
The lofts were still for sale 6 months ago at just over $500k. I haven’t bothered to check since.
There is a Wegman’s in the area though, so they do have that going for them.
I’ve just been federally stimulated.
US TREASURY 220 TAX REFUND PPD $725.70
I have a sudden urge to purchase fine Italian leather shoes at Nieman Marcus.
# 94 “There is a Wegman’s in the area though, so they do have that going for them”
Indeed. Turn west nat Convevtion Hall and head straight out Sunset.
#93 sounds good to me.
I live in Stillwater and work in Newton so I’m usually around.
Stimulus payment pending. I will finally get my plasma tv — not.
Congressman says his mail ran ’50 to 1′ against mortgage rescue
California Rep. Kevin McCarthy (pictured) tells the L.A. Times that his constituent mail on the Barney Frank mortgage rescue plan was running “50 to 1: ‘Don’t bail these people out.’ ” McCarthy, a Republican from Bakersfield, voted against the bill.
Wow I lurk and see a Gyp’s Tavern and Layton hotel reference. I have had a a few in each of those gin joints. Checked in deer at both also. Sadly the deer were unable to imbibe with me as they were deceased.
ATG off of 521 like everyone else or 617?
Just called the White House to express my opinion on the housing bailout bill. I also asked that the bill be veto’ed by the President.
They were very cordial. Give them a call.
1-202-456-1414
I think all folks who disagree with bailout, should just send a fax to senator and house member and jam their fax machines. All you need to do is use a free service like this one.
Send a fax
101
Out in the woods near five points. I hope you had a drink for the deer, even if you didn’t have a drink with them. Still, they’re just rats with hooves to me.
Grim – Is it possible to have some standard text that can be used in fax.
Got my refund… 1600$.
It is about 0.5% of starter house price in central Jersey.
well, to get to 20% downpayments all people need is 39 more rebates.
Ohh wait I filled my car yesterday…
P.S. It is really $hitty way to start your day by coming out in the morning rain and seeing two flat tires on the same side of you car.
Grim (74),
Asbury as a City is on the verge of bankruptcy and desparately needs any new ratables they can get. In a real estate development climate like this one it is necessary that there is some visible progress in the form of construction to keep the ball rolling in order for the redevelopment to keep it’s momentum up. Also, trust me, this project was shopped around to everyone post the Dec. 7th stoppage with little to no interest generated. This block holds the curse of being the old C-8 block with the skeleton of the former redevelopments failure. The City will do anything to avoid this perception of failure from repeating.
Asbury does need some iconic buildings along the waterfront but starting out with one this high-end this early in the project was definitely a mistake. The market was just not there to support the sales pace needed to keep the Esparanza going. Metro’s sales, however, were actually the strongest in the redevelopment area despite shockingly high sale prices. You’re absolutely right though, it’ll be hard to convince anyone of Metro’s solvency once they re-open for sales……..
Also, construction prices sky rocketed since this project began. I would imagine they blew their budget very early on. The building definitely needs to be scaled back. I looked at a 900 square foot one-bedroom there on the lowest residential level with no view. The base price was $485K with $7K in taxes and a $600 monthly maitenance fee……….
uh oh
Babysitter is sick.
Grim, you get to meet ALL the Little Patients today!
Shore (86),
You’re right, developers definitely priced themselves out of the game. At $350K a thoughtfully laid out 2-bedroom would sell well. the condos at Wesley Lake have great terraces, I have some issues with their layout and fit and finish though. The boardwalk and Cookman Ave. have definitely come a long way. I jog on the boardwalk at night and have never had or seen any issues but you definitely need to stay out of the area West of Main and South of Asbury Ave. after dark……….
njp,
I’ll bring cupcakes.
what is ATG?
Pain
are a rifle or bow hunter?
MIW / ATG,
I just moved out of the Southern Sussex area and I have a few thoughts. The biggest issue I saw especially in places like Sparta was the clash of cultures and class. Sparta is a great example. It has all its McMansions with the former “DINKis”. The Lake Mowhak crowd, that think living on the lake makes them better than the rest and so called WT living in the more affordable housing on the Byram side.
Its always the kids that are the great leveler and force the people to interact. My great sport was watching couples like these two trying to get along at social gathering because their kids are in the same class at school. Note names and bios made up, but you should get the picture.
Billy and Sue are high school sweethearts. When they left school, Billy started driving a tow truck, Sue was a cashier at ShopRite. Married at 22, Tyler came along at 23 and Janie at 25.
Dale and Samantha met at Penn State, where he ran track for a scholorship to law school. She was a straight A student studying Psycology as her long term plan was to be a special needs teacher after she takes time off from her corporate career to have kids. Married at 28, Mattias at 33 Lilabeth at 35.
The number of things they have in common outside of the kids is probably zero.
Two things that really struck me in the dive bars (yes I saw a few of them). The number of people that knew someone busted for DUI or had a previous themselves. The second was the number that voted republican, because gun control would restrict their right to hunt.
51 Shore
Thanks.
That entire rant is one heard frequently in the Patient household.
This bit is the most important, IMO: “military power is dependent on economic power; if we do not get our economic house in order, our military power will shrink faster than British military power did after WWII.”
And wasn’t this recently proved true on Wall Street?:
“As cocky as we have been in recent years, I don’t expect the rest of the world to be kind to us should the storm come.”
55 BC
“My brother lives there, on the lake. He trades the markets on his dock.”
We’ve got somewhat similar brothers, so it would seem.
BC: When are you starting Trade school?
When Small Biz Can’t Get a Loan
With lending tight, more entrepreneurs are turning to controversial “merchant cash advances”
67 SG
It always boggles my mind that the MSM reports on poll results like that without even bothering to say what the poll question was.
“BC: When are you starting Trade school?’
SG,
I need all the schooling I can get.
Comp Killer (I think).
From today’s newspaper
9 Henry St., Bridgewater, NJ, sold for $735,000
Courier News
The zestimate on that house is $1.01 million. That is 30% less than reduced zestimate value.
Not sure about past sales though.
A Weak Dollar and Sluggish U.S. Economy Accelerate Toyota’s Retreat to Emerging Markets
http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/05/08/a-weak-dollar-and-sluggish-u.s.-economy-accelerate-toyotas-retreat-to-emerging-markets/
Toyota says it’s not profitable to do business in USA as the country is going broke.
Hey I have an actually real estate related questions. I am putting in a new concrete driveway next week. Old one is close to 55 years old and is pretty cracked up.
Anyhow how many inches of base is necessary, you know how many inches of ground up bricks concrete etc. and how many inches of concrete on top is standard. My wifes baby hauling machine weighs 2.5 tons so I am worried if the guy does not do enough it will crack again.
“They were very cordial. Give them a call.”
Done.
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/fremont-general-may-file-bk.html
bye bye Freemont.
122 Patient
Auf Deutsch?
106 Al
Oh man. Sorry.
I’m a big fan of Fix-A-Flat myself.
“They were very cordial. Give them a call.”
Will they transfer a call to Bergabe?
Daniel Gale realty which is usually very snooty. Actually made me come in for an in person interview to see if I was worthy to be shown homes and had to answer detailed questions about job and income three years ago. Well now they are sending out fliers for Friday night twilight open houses. Flier says visit and sign in on all four open houses this friday night and be entered in sweepstake to win a valuable prize!!! They went from Park Ave marketing to sleezy orlando time share marketing in the course of two years. I give Daniel Gale credit, he you gotta do what you gotta do.
# 109 I dont like it south of 5th. or west of Heck (except up between sunset and Deal Lake).
The redevelopment of the block between Kingsley and Bergh with commercial (restaurants, pubs, night clubs) abd the development of the block between Bergh and Heck with 2-3 story townhouses, and the block between Heck and Grand with 4-6 story condos is the ticket to the salvation of Asbury. The next west block would then be ideal for the 12-15 story condos, later on; folks would be closer to the train and yet still have nice views of the ocean.
110 grim
“I’ll bring cupcakes.”
three little straitjackets might be better.
# 121 I would not be comfortable with less than 6″, but I am not an engineer.
51 Shore
Thanks.
That entire rant is one heard frequently in the Patient household.
# 51 It is just about to the point where I am willing to suffer the business disruption and throw my hat into a congressional run. Not quite there, but there comes a time when one realizes that the people running things either do not have a clue or don’t care.
# 131, that was supposed to be
125
lost
Naturlich. Immer auf Deutsch wann Ich der Fuhrer angerufen muB.
I’ll bring cupcakes.
Is your actual name really Jim Dunnam?
133 shore
Particularly the bit about economic vs. military might.
grim, LOVE that book!
The Design of Everyday Things.
Americans are still buying nearly 2 billion a day more from the rest of the world then they are selling. Dollars are still our #1 export.(hence, worldwide infation)
meanwhile the Stupid foreigners are still sending Americans 2 billion a day of things in return for a bunch of paper.
How could anyone with common sense really believe that this is sustainable.
The only question is how long will it last and how bad will things be when it stops?
#113
Yes the entire socioeconomic spetrum is represented in Sussex. I see that as a good thing, though.
In my town (pop. about 4500) there are multimillonaires living near other people’s houses that look like little slices of Appalachia, and everything in between.
Yes, the Republicans command the living-dead vote in Sussex, even in Sparta which I like to call the Beverly Hills of Sussex County.
I’m a Republican, not because I have any particular allegence to what the party represents, but because I want to vote in the local Republican primaries which are the defacto generel elections for local office holders. There are alot of people out here like me.
from 102
Grim says-
Just called the White House to express my opinion on the housing bailout bill.
Can we call at 3 AM? :)
# 136 The number of people who do not realize this link astounds me. AND, with the way we have been chewing up our military machinery in the sandbox it will take amazing sums to rebuild our capability. The Air Mobility Command assets are being run into the ground, attack aircraft are being worn out, ground equipment is being destroyed by the pace of operations and the sand.
We are in deep trouble with our equipment and it is not getting any attention.
# 140 If you call at that hour you will only make an impact if you use the Signal operator.
#128,
Anything west of Bergh is not in the redevelopment area…… Besides the main draw to Asbury is the beach/boardwalk. Highrise density should be concentrated on the oceanfront blocks with density stepped down on the blocks between Kingsley & Bergh and Kingsley and Webb. The train station is not a big selling point if you ask me. It’s not an easy or quick commute anywhere north as you need to transfer in Long Branch and there are no express trains. Most people that will buy in Asbury will buy as a second home because of proximity to the beach. Putting highrises on Grand Ave. 4 blocks from the beach doesn’t make any sense from a planning perspective, especially since that would put 15 story towers next to single family homes. Good luck getting that through the planning board.
if i recall correctly, citi has about 2 trillian asset. $500B fire sale would reduce its asset by 25%. more write-down is expected. i thought citi will tank at least 10% from here but today it is amazingly strong.
By the way, i keep my call made last weekend. long: gold mining, food. sell: financials, energy stocks.
“Good luck getting that through the planning board.”
Over the years, it appears, at least from a distance, that all it takes for that is a thick envelope.
John Re Concrete driveway:
i am not a structural engineer, but the answer depends on the characteristics of the ground you are pouring the concrete on.
Although 6 inches of poured concrete on a base should be pretty solid. consider that your 2.5 ton SUV is only exerting about 300 PSI ( pounds per square inch)of pressure on the slab ( a rough estimate) and standard concrete can support about 1500 PSI at a minimum. Your biggest concern is the slab flexing over soft ground. flexure of the slab will cause excessive cracking and crumbling.
Unless you are going to park a bulldozer on your drive, then weight probably isnt an issue
# 143 “the main draw to Asbury is the beach/boardwalk.”
Agreed. But for Asbury to thrive it needs daytrippers who come into town, spend $ and then leave without using much in the way of town services. High rise development between Kingsley and Ocean will all but kill that. And, any development that goes straight up, instead of gradual step-ups in height, reduces the number of blocks that can have desirable development. In the block or two between the ocean and the high rises one needs to build lower structures that also have a view of the water. The high rises can put parking and mechanical services in the lower floors and still allow each apartment to see the water and sunrises over the lower structures. Once the high rises go up close to the water, the chances of attracting the other development drops.
Well, lunch is over. It is time to oppress the masses.
Kettle mainly bow, but I would hunt with a spear if they let me just to get a few extra days in the woods.
Just faxed our lovely senator from NJ. I hope that annoys the corrupt twit. I can’t believe 49% of the population supports the housing bill. Who knew 49% of the population worked in real estate and its’ support industries. We are so screwed.
WARNING- OVERSIMPLIFIED MATH TO FOLLOW
If the govt wants to mess with the free market to stimulate the housing market, how about legislating the differential between what the banks can borrow at and then charge? If they borrow at 2%, then they can only charge a prime borrower with 20% downpayment (OK, so that’s me) 3%. Let me tell you, that would simulate me into buying right now.
But how would that help the banks for their past mistakes you ask? It wouldn’t, so it won’t happen.
Shore,
We just disagree on the whole urban planning process, no sense in us arguiung over it. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.
It looks like we’ll have to wait a while though…………….
As big as the news is on Citi going bust–foreclosed on—AIG is bigger. AIG’s kaput will be depressionary!!!!!!!
Why?
AIG is loaded with PENSION FUNDS going bad.
Hello Boomers!
AIG had to take $9B out of their risky investments to put it back into their safe money market funds–as they were loaded with subprimes.
If the money market funds were bad how about their risky investments?
And they took $9B from those funds—-OH—nice–those funds now are evern RISKIER.
Remember the Florida Pension Fund–the ultra safe money market fund that was at $60B and went to $20B and was frozen as people got their money out as it was loaded with subprimes?
Well AIG is like that Florida Fund—–get ready for the run on the bank.
134) lol. whereas i just talk really slow and really loud.
134 Patient
Er ist mein Fuerher nicht.
Citi
WARNING- OVERSIMPLIFIED MATH TO FOLLOW
If the govt wants to mess with the free market to stimulate the housing market, how about legislating the differential between what the banks can borrow at and then charge? If they borrow at 2%, then they can only charge a prime borrower with 20% downpayment (OK, so that’s me) 3%. Let me tell you, that would simulate me into buying right now.
But how would that help the banks for their past mistakes you ask? It wouldn’t, so it won’t happen.
Ray C,
Great math. You forgot one small thing. INFLATION!!!!!!!!
So if I have to take my money out of Citibank where do I put it? The bank of Serta Perfect Sleeper?
142 shore
The hidden cost of the war is insane.
Make money
What inflation? Remember, I don’t eat food or use gas to fuel my car.
Happy Friday All,
I anyone could help, looking for addresses and histories on these 2 houses – mls #2808067 and #2818774
thanks in advance
Make [138],
Our # 1 import is capital. Our # 1 export is inflation. How’s that for a scoreboard.
149) it actually makes perfect sense. 50% of the population has to have an IQ of less than 100, right?
less flip answer: people are selfish, and for good survival reasons. i think society/culture is defined by the groups it gets individuals to identify with and sacrifice some of the selfishness for. nationalism is just another word for selfish about a big group of geographically determined mes, right?
the bigger a group you can get ppl to identify with, the “better” for the individuals in it, usually and so far (i think). that identification has eroded, for whatever reason(s) (both in the small time frame and large time frame)… right now, people who are paying attention and easily frightened are hoarding…resources, attention, whatever. surviving the winter based on how much you eat over the summer. even if that means eating someone else’s stash. ’cause (to some people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time) it’s about survival.
RaC,
Good point. Send Barney and Dodd an E-mail and watch it be debated on the floor by next week.
Here’s another “great” idea:
Tell them to CUT the middle man and have the gov’t offer the mortgage themselves. they end up buying the junk anyway.
Give a 30yr mortgege at the 10 yr yield with no closing cost.
Make [138],
Our # 1 import is capital. Our # 1 export is inflation. How’s that for a scoreboard.
If you ask me life is great.
149/163
Re the bailout poll – the numbers on this issue seem to fluctuate wildly. It’s all in how the question is asked. Without knowing what the question was the elicited 49% approval, I don’t know whether to credit the poll at all.
For all I know, the question was: “Assuming the bailout plan does not create moral hazard, does not cost you a penny and is necessary in order for America not to fall into the ocean, do you (a) support the bailout or (b) wish to see your neighbors shoved out into the street on a cold rainy night with no clothing for the baby?”
“The number of companies defaulting on their junk-rated debt and filing for bankruptcy in North America is running at its fastest pace in five years amid the slowing economy and contraction in credit markets.”
“The US is leading the global default rate for companies, said Ken Emery, senior vice-president at Moody’s.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bfe01f0e-1d36-11dd-82ae-000077b07658.html
When it come comes to AIG,
The silence on CNBC and Bloomberg is deafening
“The silence on CNBC and Bloomberg is deafening”
They normally turn horse manure into filet mignon.
A great quote
“Economics is run by people who didn’t[sic] understand it.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/may/08/bankofenglandgovernor.economics
Does anyone else here find it disturbing how unaware most people are of how precarious our current national economic situation is? I usually get the ” but we are america we cant go broke ( or fail etc)”. Apparently numbers no longer matter
I’m aware kettle1.
BC,
did you notice fast money the other day? they actually discussed why oil was up due to fundamentals and not due to some evil brown skinned people
For all I know, the question was: “Assuming the bailout plan does not create moral hazard, does not cost you a penny and is necessary in order for America not to fall into the ocean, do you (a) support the bailout or (b) wish to see your neighbors shoved out into the street on a cold rainy night with no clothing for the baby?”
Nudge
indeed you are stu,
most people on this board are we just differ in our opinions of degree . but it seems to me that people who i normally consider very intelligent and open minded poo-poo the real implications of our current mess.
Kettle,
Macke’s been saying ever since it broke 100 that if it was a stock and people were looking at the chart they’d be all over it bit for some reason they say “it’s oil” so there must be something wrong.
I am out now, got out the last time it got near 120, hoping for a pullback.
kettle [171],
It could be worse. Try asking them their thought on currency exchange rates.
hehe
i am in for a while, but then i doubt that surprises you.
Webb’s figures show wholesale prices on big SUVs such as Chevrolet Tahoes, Ford Expeditions and Toyota Sequoias are down 17% from a year ago. Full-size pickups have fallen as much as 15%, Webb says.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2008-05-08-suvs-resale-value_N.htm
BC 177
to be fair how much has the average individual ever been taught about exchange and its implications? Most of what i know i have had to teach myself by seeking out books on the topic. Still, not a good thing
grim
“Nudge”
hee!
exactly
171 kettle
Yes.
In spades.
And that’s another reference to Shore’s “american exceptionalism”
or the fool who was going on the other day about the earth’s limitless food-production capacity.
Make money
Here’s another “great” idea:
Tell them to CUT the middle man and have the gov’t offer the mortgage themselves. they end up buying the junk anyway.
Give a 30yr mortgege at the 10 yr yield with no closing cost.
Sure, why not? As long as they are going to meddle, I can root for something that will help me in the short run, even if it eliminates 1000’s of jobs. But then I guess they would have to do away with that pesky mortgage deduction…
I may just move to a Holiday Inn Express and use Zip Cars when I need them. Owning (or should I say buying) things is so last Century.
Kettle,
We don’t teach any financial literacy courses in High School and very littl in College. People are financial iliterates otherwise everyone would vote for Ron Paul and there would be a run at Washington demanding the death sentence for everyone.
I know exactly the day when the Iraq War will end. It’s the day after the foreigners say to the US that we are not willing to provide you with $2B and your credit line is cut off.
I can see McCain address the nation and say,
“For economical reasons we have to withdraw from Iraq and bring back troops from 130 different countries”
and the talking heads on Fox analyzing” No one could have possible saw this coming”
BC,
for your amusement
from
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iYG8SUnUOR9NfNAI-ZFekXsmN5GwD90I52M00
The world appears to have an insatiable thirst for oil. Millions of barrels of oil are pumped from the Earth each day, but does anyone know the “replenishment” rate? Is the prospect of depleting all the Earth’s oil a legitimate concern, or is new oil being created at a rate which will sustain us “forever”?
Gary Wagner
Morton, Ill.
never mind I just remebered who the 49% were
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080509/ap_on_re_us/18_kids
185 kettle
Ignorance = bliss
But don’t ask questions….
Who Has Billions in Level 2 Assets?
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/MER-GS-C-jpm-bac-LEH/index/a/17100
re: Asbury
Whoever said that something has to be built on the Metro site, lest another Beirut-esque skeleton remain there for twenty years, is entirely correct. But what I don’t understand is why the developers haven’t considered building rentals, like Long Branch did. People might take a chance on Asbury if they didn’t have to buy, especially given the ridiculous prices.
And the retail/restaurant establishments on Cookman are very nice once you arrive there…after driving or walking down a rather disgraceful-looking Main Street. It shocks me that any sane planner would’ve counted on people wearing blinders—not to mention, perhaps, a bullet-proof vest—before arriving at what is unquestionably the town’s best asset. (Maybe its only asset.)
Meanwhile, here in the Grove, an 86-unit project was given approval to go forward, despite the expressed fears that it won’t be viable because of the economy. Not to worry, we were told, things will be better then…
187 patient,
Sadly that statement is accurate. Its frustrating sometimes to see everyone around you worried about who got kicked off of dancing with the stars and has 0 interest in US international affairs or economics outside the blurb they heard on cnn.
Kettle, I just spit my afternoon coffee all over the monitor. Whenever I think to myself the populus of this country can’t get any dumber some mouth breather spouts a new nugget of idiocy. If you have seen the movie Idiocracy most would think it was a portent of doom instead of a comedy.
186 Pain
ITS NOT A CLOWN CAR!!!
vague perhaps?
pain,
Idocracy was a comdey???? i thought it was a documentary
Quiz from the paranoid side of my brain.
(Those tracking campaign contributions will find this way too easy.)
If we can assume that the current bailout scheme is a snowjob, intended only to educate (and then infuriate) Joe and Jane, what is the true plan to be unveiled in February?
Hint: This plan will *appear* to be a much lesser evil in comparison.
Kettle
FARK photoshop contest? I spend way too much time on the internet.
Sadly I thought the same until I saw Mike Judge wrote and directed it.
Shore Guy #51: Remember when Walter Mondale said this in 1984:
“President Reagan will raise your taxes, and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did.”
You see how well THAT worked for him.
I read a lot of blogs, and I’m appalled at the number of people who are happy about the stimulus check, and who think that saving thirty bucks over the course of the summer is worth having bridges fall into the rivers over which they cross. It’s because we have always had this ridiculously high standard of living, and to say that we can no longer do this is political suicide. It isn’t JUST the fault of the politicians, it’s the fault of a willfully ignorant, selfish, and greedy population.
#114 nj patient:should the storm come.
The storm is already here my friend.
#123 Done here too.
NJ patient
Nj patient-> boat
US empire -> storm
http://tinyurl.com/4va7pr
Off topic: can anyone from the NYC crowd recommend bars or restaurants in midtown? I’ve got friends in from overseas staying near Times Square and I don’t think we’d like slogging around the city in the rain. Thanks in advance.
WOW
I did not knwo that Elizabeth was Prime!!!
http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?ctid=28643&mxp=26&typ=5&sid=e1d5029c2c0e4f03962e184117096fd8&lid=1097101296&lsn=7&srcnt=9#Detail
Check out pictures – only of the outside, extremelly busy street…
Hmmmm who has the stronger hand?
On Friday, The Wall Street Journal published a report that suggested closer ties between Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and rebels attempting to overthrow Colombia’s government. Chavez has been linked to Colombian rebels previously, but the paper reported it had reviewed computer files indicating concrete offers by Venezuela’s leader to arm guerillas. That appears to heighten the chances that the U.S. could impose sanctions on one of its biggest oil suppliers.
“If we put on sanctions, I’m sure Chavez would threaten to cut off our oil supply,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. “Obviously that would have a major impact on oil prices.”
#190 Kettle: Sad but true. And then you are either called an elitist or a dork.
jmacdaddio 200 – What are you looking for – cheap, upscale? Any preference for food?
Just like to advise everybody to please stop referring to the current economic environemnt as a recession.
It is a “national economic slow down”. Please address your comments with that fact in mind.
helpful advice received via email from a realtor on the Main Line:
Sources of Down Payment
One of the most appreciated services we offer is helping buyers find the source of the down payment to buy their new home, especially when they thought they couldn‚t afford it. Below, you will find a partial list of some potential sources for a down payment.
1. Cash value life insurance
2. Gift from relatives
3. Equity in a car or other asset
4. Year-end bonus
There are other sources besides the ones listed. If you are unsure about the practicality of any of these, please feel free to call us or send us an email at any time. We are here to help you.
Gator – Middle of the road is fine since it’s no fun going to an upscale place looking like a drowned rat. Basic American or tavern style is fine. Maybe even Greek or Turkish / Middle Eastern. Thanks!
jmacdaddio (200)
I just went to this place for lunch. It’s a new French place and very good. The mussles were the size of my head:
http://www.cognacrestaurant.com/
Look it up on Menupages dot com.
njp,
How could they forget the 401k loan, friend of Realtors everywhere.
199 kettle
waaahhh!!
Why do I always have to be the boat? Why can’t YOU be the boat this time?
209
guy’s just not that good, I guess.
“mussles were the size of my head”
It’s tempting, but I’m going to let sleeping dogs lie.
They also forgot armed robery, sale of illegal substances and graft. Realtors after all take the moral high ground
How do you tap the equity in your car?
CELOC?
Why do I always have to be the boat? Why can’t YOU be the boat this time?
That’s USA on the boat. I jumped off long time ago and AM now on the shore in a buker with a few decades of food reserves.
Anyine want to join me or am I just paranoid?
200 jmacdaddio
many of us can oblige, but why don’t you describe what you’re looking for?
Diner?
Pub?
Steakhouse?
Family?
Expensive?
Cheap?
Wine?
………
JMac (207)
If that’s the case, try Eatery (eaterynyc dot com). They’ve got this awesome Mac & Jack(cheese) with fried onions on top.
Uncle Nick’s is a decent Greek place on 8th ave (unclenicksouzaria dot com).
McGee’s on 55th around Broadway is a decent “fake” irish place
jmacdaddio
You could try St. Andrews on 120 W.44th between 6th and Bway. It’s a traditional Scottish pub, with decent food, excellent beer selection, and one of the best single malt selections in the city. Casual and resonably priced. Today seems like a good day for a single malt.
http://www.standrewsnyc.com/
OT,
Commodity bubble?
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/05/is-commodities-boom-driven-by.html
On a slow afternoon, trader A decided to open a market for a can of sardines. Bidding started at $1. B bought it for $2 and sold it to C for $3. D and E decided to get into the act, with the result that E became the owner for $5.
E decided to open the can and discovered the sardines had gone bad. He went back to A to get his money back, protesting that the sardines were rotten. A smiled broadly, and said, ” You don’t understand. Those were trading sardines, not eating sardines.”
grim 214,
say you live in the car and tap it for a HELOC?
[206] Patient,
Tell me that you are joking. That cannot be serious.
Main line is nice, but cashing out the insurance to live in Ardmore is lunacy. Besides, you will need it after a semi runs over your car on the Sure-Kill Expressway.
AJ Maxwell’s by Rock Ctr. 47th & 6th. Great steakhouse. Maybe a bit pricier than you want though.
The Times Square area is filled with places to eat. It shouldn’t be too hard to find something decent.
[218] JBJB,
Mmmmm. single malt. Indeed, a good day for one. Opened the Cragganmore a couple of weeks ago.
But I got my NJ bar results today so something a bit more effervescent is in order.
jmacdaddio
Molyvo’s is a wonderful Greek place on 7th ave and 55th, not cheap but more affordable than some places in the neighborhood.
If you go to the Heartland Brewery on 51st and 6th, you might see me – good pub food, and their own beer.
Playwrights on 49th and 7th is an old school Irish pub with sports on the flat screens – a little more salt-of-the-earth.
Ellen’s Stardust Diner is very good take on the old subway car diner, and there are singing waiters putting on a constant show, and electric trains, and a menu that’s straight out of Jack Rabbit Slims from Pulp Fiction.
JBJB (218),
I second your suggestion of St. Andrew’s. I’ve been a few times and have never left disappointed (especially when there’s a fine lass wearing one of those kilts).
I am so hungry. Frozen turkey and 22 peas didn’t cut it.
225 Nom
“But I got my NJ bar results today so something a bit more effervescent is in order.”
Congrats!!
But I got my NJ bar results today so something a bit more effervescent is in order.
Excuse my ignorance, but does this call for congratulations or condolences?
225 ND Kudos!!
sl
221 Nom
“Tell me that you are joking. That cannot be serious.”
No can do mon frere.
congrats
Macdaddio,
Try this place:
http://www.johnnyutahs.com/
I haven’t been yet, I’m heading there Monday night. Go to the bull-riding section and check out the pics.
Looks like fun!
Welcome to the New Jersey Oil, Stroller, and Lawyer Report
Can we quiz Nom now with questions like:
What’s the maximum age for child support awards in the state of New Jersey?
No peeking.
St. Andrew’s sounds promising – I’ve always wanted to try it. Patient, maybe we’ll stop in the Heartland Brewery for a glass or two after dinner.
228 grim
yes.
grim,
are you going to start being like google and putting the themed headers up?
235 jmac
If you do, say hi to Tony the bartender. He’s really good people.
232 Doyle
How’d I miss that, right around the corner – looks pretty sweet!
Also, there’s the Montana Grill on 51st and 6th. Really great burgers, not too expensive.
http://www.tedsmontanagrill.com/
Jill (196)-
“…and I’m appalled at the number of people who are happy about the stimulus check, and who think that saving thirty bucks over the course of the summer is worth having bridges fall into the rivers over which they cross.”
Hey, Jill, in about another year you’ll be able to use the first few chapters of Atlas Shrugged to describe the entire US.
NJP,
I can’t remember exactly, but it’s about a year and a half to two years old I think, or somewhere around there. I always forget to go, but I am taking clients Monday night. Four ladies in their twenties to be exact, so I’m optimistic on the bull riding…
It supposed to be a great time.
200- Try Virgils barbeque on 44th between 6th & 7th. Real BBQ and they have an extensive beer selection.
Too bad they closed McHales that was a great place on 46th/8th.
patient (206)-
3. Equity in a car or other asset
4. Year-end bonus
After I wipe the soup off my computer screen, I will add these two items to my Little List of Signs of the Endtimes.
This list of mine, BTW, has become very long.
St. Andrews does look good – gonna have to add that to my list.
grim (209)-
Any Realtor who suggests this to a client should face summary execution.
244 clot
Sounds like my list of financial pundits/advisors/professionals whose advice should only be listened to on Opposite Day.
Loooong list.
TB – agree that Virgils is pretty good BBQ for this part of the country.
plume (223)-
License to ill?
Congrats. That deserves at least some Krug Grande Cuvee…
Pat (226)-
Please tell me you do not count the peas in your frozen dinners.
215 make
“Anyine want to join me or am I just paranoid?”
Light a match – the faces in the dark that you see grinning back at you are kettle, 3B, me….
(223)
Congrats. I agree, put a yeallow bottle on a bucket of ice.
Johnny Utah’s looks good! So does the Montana place. I should go to the city more often. I like bistro style places, but they can be a roll of the dice sometimes.
I swallowed my pride and went to the Bank of Mom and Dad for a loan to complete my DP. They were impressed by my FICO scores in the high 700s and low 800s.
Apparently you can borrow money against your car in a title loan. You don’t pay, they get your car. You lose your car, you can’t go to work. You can’t work, you lose your income and insurance (if you had it to begin with). A sure ticked to ruin (as if it weren’t obvious).
“mussles were the size of my head”
They must have been scraped off the pylons in Jersey City.
Light a match – the faces in the dark that you see grinning back at you are kettle, 3B, me….
Great,
I’m albanian so my wife will make dinner and woll play poker. I’ll raise you a dozen peas.
“mussles were the size of my head”
They must be stimulated and inflated by the feds.
“mussles were the size of my head”
It would be impressive if they rivaled the size of Barry Bond’s head. Talk about stimulated and inflated.
“play poker. I’ll raise you a dozen peas.”
Excellent. There’ll be no shortage of fuel: peas give me gas.
257 BC
It would be impressive if they rivaled the size of Ron Jeremy’s “head”. Talk about stimulated and inflated.
Interesting article on credit, treasury and bond yields, inflation, etc.
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/issues.aspx?Your-Latest-Credit-Market-Road-Map-1770
What say to some of you to a friendly poker game this Summer in my Montclair gazebo?
I don’t know how to play cards. Would someone teach me?
262 Clotpoll,
Sure, wait, where did all my money go?
Clot,
It’ll be a friendly, low stakes game. You’ll probably spend more in gas getting to my crib than you will lose in Texas Hold ’em. And yes, you can be taught the nuances of poker if a lesson is requested.
So, thought I was slacking off on my own pathetic little blog. I hadn’t posted a monthly sales summary for my township since the end of last year.
Anyway, today I set aside quite a block of time to catch up on three months’ worth of posting.
What the hell was I thinking? I didn’t miss anything! Q1-08 in Branchburg Twp
was marked by only TWELVE closed sales. Two of them featured DOM of over 400 and 600 days, respectively.
The short and gruesome list:
http://tinyurl.com/4qdaul
# 152 “We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.”
I take no offense and I intend none. I appreciate the expression of divergent views; that is how the best ideas emerge.
I suspect the city would benefit from a windy night, a lantern, a cow, and low water pressure.
clot – those branchburg DOM numbers are some kind of ugly.
Question for the smart guys… What are your feelings on paying cash for a car? I am in the market for a gently used car, probably a 2006 with under 30k miles. Anyone do it recently? Did you find it difficult to work with a dealer once they found out you were paying cash?
Details: I don’t need to sell any investments to come up with the $, it is not my emergency fund and it won’t put me in a dicey position should an emergency come up. The wifey and I have good credit and I have not shopped for a rate yet, but I like the idea of not having a car payment.
Thoughts?
Twelve sales for the quater..Yikes.
How many agents and brokers work in branchburg?
I think I’ll raise two dozens peas so that the agents fold or have to go all in.
#215 make money
I don’t think you are a paranoid, more like a realist.
Now I’m paranoid. I’m trying to learn Mandarin. I figure being able to translate for the Chinese lenders and deadbeats in the US & UK could be the new growth business.
Maybe I could launch my own bi-lingual international collection agency.
Doyle,
Not smart, but I’ll answer. Not sure you’ll like my answer.
It all depends on the loan rate you get quoted.
# 171
Ket,
Although Reagan is still my political idol, and I was a former apointee of his, I still regret that he ever made the following statement (which my brain may be paraphrasing after so many years but it is correct in its essentials): “I don’t worry about the defecit, it is big enough to look out for itself.”
That one statement gave my party free reign to overspend. We need flat budgets for 10 years (flat including the off-budget items like the bloody war, which is an insane concept in and of itself, funding a war off budget).
Doyle,
See what is the best rate you can get. We bought our Xterra in 2005 with .5% interest. This was a no brainer.
If you think you can make more money off of your money in the next 3 to 4 years then do payments. If you think the best you will do is 2 to 3 percent in your ING Savings account, then might as well just buy the car outright.
Grim, yes you are.
I figured that might be the reply, and I get it. I guess I’ll have to cross that bridge when I get the quote.
Doyle
“What are your feelings on paying cash for a car? ”
I’m all for it and did so this past fall. I’m not a “smart guy” though, so the only reason I can give is that I dislike having debts.
“Did you find it difficult to work with a dealer once they found out you were paying cash?”
No – Mrs. Patient does the bargaining, and she’s a shark. It does allow you to truly bargain on the actual payment amount, and make clear to the dealer that they can’t pull the old “what kind of monthly payment are you looking for?”
Pretty much what Grim said ;)
#268 Doyle,
I wound up buying a left over 2007 Hyundai. I started out thinking like you, but I got 6 years financing at 1.9% and paid dealer’s invoice price.
Can you imagine 1.9% financing on a depreciating asset for 6 years? At dealer’s invoice. WTF?
271 grim
‘sokay – if he was looking for a simple-minded answer there’s always mine.
I second Playwrights on 49th and 7th. I have eaten there a few times.
helpful advice received via email from a realtor on the Main Line:
Sources of Down Payment
One of the most appreciated services we offer is helping buyers find the source of the down payment to buy their new home, especially when they thought they couldn‚t afford it. Below, you will find a partial list of some potential sources for a down payment.
1. Cash value life insurance
2. Gift from relatives
3. Equity in a car or other asset
4. Year-end bonus
Okay am I missing something here? Can someone please explain how can you get equity from your car???? I am baffled!!
I enjoy the negotiations at car dealers. I Make sure that I know the dealer cost for the car before I go. Then I sit down and simply say, I will give you a $300 commission on this said car, take it or leave it. They usually say no. I then head for the door and they usually say, OK, lets talk. I always end up speaking with the sales manager and end up getting the car with the $300 commission. Just make sure you know the fair value of your trade, if you are trading up.
http://www.leasetrader.com/2006_Nissan_Altima_SL_2.5L_Sedan_128634.xhtml
Not smart I’m a genious!!! I just made two dozen peas they all folded.
Lease used. No DP, no bank Fee, no sales tax(already paid) just sign a drive.
You’ll enjoy a slightly used car under warranty for under $200 per month. When a Lease is up then you do it again.
Keep your money in Gold and short CITIBANK.
Disclosure (short Citi and long Gold)
279 Shore
heh – Jamey would be horrified to know you hobnob with the hoi polloi.
Thanks Stu.
NJP, I am becoming the same way on debt (dislike having it). I have read it can make it much more difficult to negotiate the final price, because the dealer is losing cash without the financing.
Bairen, that’s a good deal. So you went in thinking cash and switched once you got the rate it seems…
“3. Equity in a car or other asset”
Oh, sorry. It was a typo. I meant to write bar, as in gold. You don’t have any? So sorry. Move along.
#83 Shore Guy
A few years ago I checked out a train trip from Raleigh, NC to South Bend, IN to visit relatives. It would have been nothing more than a nostalgia experience for me since my first independent trip, when I was 15 years old (back in the 1960s) was by train.
Then I found out that the trip by Amtrak would take almost 30 hours and cost about $100 more than flying.
I still like to travel by train, but the practical opportunities are few in the US. One of the real problems with domestic train travel is that the connecting schedules are so poor. Maybe that’s because the major trains run only two or three times per day, versus two or three times per hour in much of the world outside of the Americas.
But I almost always work a train trip into my itinerary when I travel around Europe.
#280 Arr Elle
That’s exactly what I thought.
Maybe if it’s an SUV you could rent it by the hour to recent college grads who are living with the parents and want some place to bring a date?
Must resist H2 one liners. Bad bairen, bad.
“Can someone please explain how can you get equity from your car???? I am baffled!!”
With a gun and a crowbar.
Wait – that’s for getting equity from someone else’s car. Sorry.
Why would anyone dislike debt if it’s in USD?
Lend me USD at 5% I’ll take as much as I can get my hands on.
289 make
It’s not rational – jest don’t like it.
Although if you get the rate low enough… (I have plenty at 3.2% fixed)
still like to travel by train, but the practical opportunities are few in the US. One of the real problems with domestic train travel is that the connecting schedules are so poor. Maybe that’s because the major trains run only two or three times per day, versus two or three times per hour in much of the world outside of the Americas
There is a perfect explanation for this. They’re subsidized by our Governament.
“One of the real problems with domestic train travel is that the connecting schedules are so poor.”
You misspelled “plane.”
#282
Make, I knew that post was coming from you! Do you still rent a beat up ride to collect the rent?
If you are buying a gently late model used car with cash I would recommend skipping the dealer. The dealer provides no warranty as you get the remainder of the manufacturer warranty and you pay 2K to 3k above the “driveway” price. Best place to get a car is from a well to do neighborhood and don’t buy unless the guy shows car at his house and you do carfax and take to mechanic. Also download the “gift” form off DMV website to avoid sales tax and get a receipt.
20K dealer car with 8% sales tax is $21,6000
Same car Driveway is $17K straight up no tax.
Best deal go to auction tip $500 to get a dealer to bid and inspect for you and get same car for $14k.
Now if I was a brooklyn boy I would get paid cash in hand to pick up a leased car on lease trader and then have uncle joey roll back the odemeter.
http://www.leasetrader.com/2007_Mercedes_CLK350_Convertible_131794.xhtml
with $399 per moth you could be a Pimp and/or Client #10
Make, I knew that post was coming from you! Do you still rent a beat up ride to collect the rent?
Yes sir. Stick with what works.
Make, I knew that post was coming from you! Do you still rent a beat up ride to collect the rent?
I’m flattered that you remember Mr.Doyle.
Clot ..
try absolutepoker.com
My husband’s poker buddies moved around the country a bit and they do weekly games on there now.
It doesn’t cost them any peas. No gas to deal with either way.
#284 doyle,
I started thinking used or dealer loaner car from 05/06/07 models and looking at cash or financing depending on the rate, couldn’t believe the deal.
I had to keep checking the paperwork. I never would have thought 1.9% for 6 years, to me that’s cheap money.
I figured if we hit massive deflation my savings would go far, massive inflation I could collect a nice interest rate in a CD. If neither happens 1.9% is still a good deal.
Even with Bergabe’s stagflation still not bad.
Plus I still have my flee to Asia if the US economy falls apart fund intact.
Nom – Congrats.
Jmac – Red Eye Grill
Uncle Nicks
Rosie O Gradys 52nd/7th
Hamburger Heaven
Stu – Mrs PGC and I are thinking of going to a charity Poker Tournament in Totowa if you are interested. Its coming up in a few weeks time.
Doyle – Essential reading
http://www.edmunds.com/advice/buying/articles/42962/article.html
Make sure you research their inventory before you go in. It’s all online. Know the price you want to pay. Don’t take any bait and switch. Read all paperwork and take a calculator to check their invoice numbers. Have your financing sorted out before you go in. If its used, get an independant inpection. It should only cost you about $100.
Be flexible but don’t be led. Be prepared to walk out at anytime. In fact I would recomend it. The words “Ok, Lets go” should steet the conversation back your way. If you are trading in, bring a spare set of keys. They will lose your keys (or licence) temporarily to keep you there. Even better, bring two cars. Don’t be afraid to take a deal, but understand what you are getting into. Mrs PGC and I financed 10K of a new car purchase to qualify for another $1,000 of the price. We paid the 10K in three months to meet the minimum requirements at a cost of $150 in finance charges so it worked out as another $850 of the purchase price.
#282 make,
Wish you had posted that 6 months ago. doh!
Stu/Pat
I had assumed clot was joking – he strikes me as a poker shark.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/09/news/economy/creditcards/index.htm?cnn=yes
Barely surviving on credit cards
No longer able to turn their homes for cash, Americans are increasingly using plastic to meet their basic living expenses. But many can’t afford to pay the bills.
…
Finding themselves strapped for cash and unable to use their home as an ATM, Americans are increasingly turning to credit cards to cover gas, groceries and other living expenses.
But many find themselves struggling to pay the burgeoning bills at a time when even the basic needs are growing costlier.
“Other sources of money for a lot of Americans are drying up,” … “Consumers just don’t have a place to go to get money. They are digging themselves into a deeper hole not only to pay for normal living expenses, but to make minimum payments on outstanding debt.”
…
Government and agency statistics illustrate this troubling trend. The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that Americans’ credit card debt jumped 6.7% in the first quarter of this year to $957.2 billion,
…
For many people, racking up credit card debt is not a choice they want to make, experts say. Not too long ago, they could have tapped into the equity in their homes through loans or lines of credit or refinancing.
…
So, faced with soaring costs for food and fuel, people find they must charge more to make ends meet.”They are not able to increase their income, but their expenses are going up, so the credit card becomes a way to cope,” said Sara Gilbert, executive director of the Consumer Credit Counseling Service in Fort Collins, Colo.
…
Eldridge isn’t the only one worrying. Industry analysts say that both credit card balances and delinquencies are on the rise, a sign that a growing number of Americans can’t afford their spending habits.
Not surprisingly, those facing the greatest stress tend to be in weak housing markets who are already struggling with their mortgage payments, experts said
…
The number of credit cards issued has also risen. At the end of 2007, there were 420 million cards on the market, up 7.6% from a year earlier.
Americans are carrying high levels of debt, compared to historical levels, while their savings rate is quite low, Hart said.
“In the long term, that’s not a good thing,” she said. “We’re really at a tipping point for consumer credit. It depends on what happens to the economy and employment.”
problem with the US train system is that essentially all o f the tracks are dedicated freight lines. This means that freight generally has priority over transit. It also means that you cannot run highspeed trains without building new rail lines, as freight lines are built to hold heavy loads and cannot handle high speed. To build a real train transit system would require a second “interstate highway” program. Can you imagine the politics of having to buy and construct new right-of-ways in the densely populated North east corridor of DC to Boston?
Another problem…. Our freight rail capacity is maxed out. there isnt room for anymore freight transit. so as fuel becomes more expensive and truck freight is moved to rail freight we will see a capacity crunch.
FYI diesel trains average about 150 mi/gal per ton of freight. a heck of a lot more efficient then tractor trailers.
make (269)-
A quick search of GSMLS reveals 135 licensees attached to real estate offices with a Branchburg mailing address.
“Red Eye Grill
Uncle Nicks
Rosie O Gradys 52nd/7th”
Yes Yes and yes – all affordable (it’s manhattan, so that’s relative), spacious and generally not a pain in the a$$.
bairen (270)-
“Maybe I could launch my own bi-lingual international collection agency.”
Want to save some money? Forget the Berlitz. Instead, invest in brass knuckles, thumbscrews and weightlifting classes.
make (269)-
A quick search of GSMLS reveals 135 licensees attached to real estate offices with a Branchburg mailing address
Yikes. After they expire what percentage do you think will renew? 50%?
bairen 1.9% may not be adeal, dealers work four boxes, box one profit on selling car, box two profit on trade in, box three rip off extras they sell you (remote start etc.), box four financing (application fee etc.)
They work the boxes to come back to the number they want. Lets say you trade in a used car they can sell for 6K and give you 3K, then they hit you for a 200 app fee and $400 remote start they can then sell the car at a lower price as you gave then $3,600 in the other boxes. That is why dealers don’t like cash with no trade in, they are only working with two boxes.
Thanks John (never heard of the gift form).
Thanks Bairen, thanks PGC (I like Edmunds).
Make, how could I forget?
he strikes me as a poker shark..
I gotta read slower and not shift/tab as much or I miss the sarcasm sometimes.
make (308)-
Hell, we’ve already dropped 70+ agents in the last year.
Shore (272)-
“…an insane concept in and of itself, funding a war off budget…”
Why? Off-balance-sheet accounting is one of the US’ finest inventions.
Just to think: in the course of a century, we went from the Wright brothers to Skilling, Fastow and Lay.
Direct deposit payments
If the last two digits of your Social Security number are: Your stimulus payment should be sent to your bank account by:
00 – 20 May 2
21 – 75 May 9
76 – 99 May 16
Paper check
If the last two digits of your Social Security number are: Your check should be in the mail by:
00 – 09 May 16
10 – 18 May 23
19 – 25 May 30
26 – 38 June 6
39 – 51 June 13
52 – 63 June 20
64 – 75 June 27
76 – 87 July 4
88 – 99 July 11
“we’ve already dropped 70+ agents in the last year.”
clot, that’s because you have unusually good aim.
Hey Clot, I think the ‘comments’ part of your site is down. Got this message:
Error: This file cannot be used on its own.
Apparently you can borrow money against your car in a title loan. You don’t pay, they get your car. You lose your car, you can’t go to work. You can’t work, you lose your income and insurance (if you had it to begin with). A sure ticked to ruin (as if it weren’t obvious).
Funny – so let me get this straight:
Grim was ttalking teh other day about traiding in your SUV, and that dealerships will not give you good price – would these people give you Blue book value (less 100 may be?) – and after that you judt give it to them?? So they are the ones stuck with your SUV???
Or do they give you a loan at 50% of car’s value?
Italics Off
schab (316)-
Tried it on this end. Seems to be OK.
319
Tried it a couple times, no dice. Same error.
Could be why comments have come down. I love you riling ’em up.
A GSMLS search of licensees in Branchburg and its adjacent towns (Hillsborough, Readington, Bridgewater and Bedminster) reveals a licensee count of 698.
Schab (320)-
Thanks, anyway. I’ll run it by my host (unlike Grim, I cannot do anything technical…beyond turning on a computer).
A quick search of GSMLS reveals 135 licensees attached to real estate offices with a Branchburg mailing address.
That’s great ratio. 13.5 agents for every quaterly sale.
Wow. How many people wanna quit and become RE Agents?
I’m close to throwing in the towel and moving to a 10%-off-peak expectation.
Grim is this you? Your wife is looking for blood and you’re waving the towel!!!
Grim…Hang in there buddy. There’s still time. People are gonna have to pay their credit card bills soon enough.
Although, I have a funny feeling that that was not the real Grim who posted that.
Question to the board:
Is anyone aware of technologies or companies with patents that make coal burn cleaner?
Well the more I read the clearer it gets that we’re avoiding a deep recession. There probably isn’t a recession at all.
That settles it. The top is in. I’m selling my long positions & taking profits. When the last of the bears finally throws in the towel & join the bulls, that typically signals the end is nigh.
The recession is being delayed by credit cards absorbing the shock of higher energy & food prices.
I think NJ will no crush – I think it will bleed over 5-10 years with small drops of 2-3% coupled with inflation.
“If New Jersey was going to crash California-style, then why hasn’t it happened yet?”
We were not as overheated?
Grim, could this may be Season Affective Disorder. I’d wait til the sun returns before posting again on the topic.
Just remember: in the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again.
“Am I the only one in this site’s large “30%-off-peak” crowd who is beginning to question his call?”
I question it every day. I was probably too conservative, 30-40% off peak, regarding my call. It will probably be close to 50%.
317 Al
50% of 0 is 0.
316 schab
I had no problem, tho clot doesn’t trust me so I am in moderation.
grim is not posting at the same time that he is showing Mrs. Patient houses.
Of that I am 100% certain.
I think people lose sight of the fact that the majority of homeowners are not looking to move or have to move. If I bought in 1999 for $150K and the house next door sold for $600K in 2005, my house today may be worth $550 today and $400K next year. Unless I’m moving I don’t really care. If I have to move. I can sell for $400 next year and buy another house that has gone throught the same cycle. Unless I bought in the last few years, Heloced or Refied my house away the storm can pass me by. As long as the house value doesn’t dip below the original $150K I am OK. At the end of the day a HELOC is a loan that should have a plan for repayment. That plan should not rely on selling the property.
The big issue is the value of mortgages in trouble (say 10% of overall housing stock) is leveraged so much that it has hit a tipping point that has casued a run on the securitised products. Once a run starts, it is very hard to stop. One thing to notice here is that companies are stepping in to buy these portfolios at 40c on the dollar as the suspect that there is probably 60-70c of good loans in the products.
“Do you really think a POS that cost $400,000 is going to $200,000?”
To whomever[338],
Absolutely.
327 Chifi
Yes what do you want to know?
the clearest indication that it’s not grim (even for those of you who didn’t know where he was or what he was doing at 4pm on Friday) was that grim would not equate whether NJ housing would drop 10% or 30% with whether or not there is a recession.
The two don’t particularly have anything to do with each other.
patient (337)-
Sorry. My blog is under constant spam attack.
Am I reading the real “grim” comments above questioning the decline in NJ or is this someone playing a joke?
I would suspect that whoever is borrowing grim’s name is highly likely to get permanently banned from posting.
gary – it’s a bad joke. Grim is currently busy and not posting.
Gary [345],
Similar to Shockey, pretending to be a tight end.
“Sorry. My blog is under constant spam attack.”
By people pretending to be grim?
Thing is, if you’re going to pretend to be grim, you’d better pretend to be intelligent. Whoever is posting forgot to do that.
BC Bob,
lol! I think Shockey’s going to New Orleans, BTW.
If New Jersey was going to crash California-style, then why hasn’t it happened yet?
It’s beacuse we are special and soo close to NYC.(sarcasm off)
oh – and, as to “Do you really think a POS that cost $400,000 is going to $200,000?”
the answer is “yes”.
Cheers!
“lol! I think Shockey’s going to New Orleans, BTW.”
My NOLA inlaws were discussing the possiblity with horror.
And whoever’s using grim’s handle is probably sitting on a crate in the middle of a room with an empty cup ‘a soup container next to them.
“I would suspect that whoever is borrowing grim’s name”
…. is depticting the Bayonne Bleeder, attempting to get off the mat.
njpatient,
The dude’s a good football player all around, I don’t know why they would dislike the move.
fraud (328)-
“If New Jersey was going to crash California-style, then why hasn’t it happened yet?”
One word, Fraudster:
Alt-A
357 cindy
I hope they got another room and rented Cinderella to keep the Little Patients occupied.
that’s depicting
358 gary
They’re Eli fans, of course, and they think that Shockey and Tiki stunted Eli’s growth, and as soon as the “superstars” stepped to the sidelines, Eli was finally able to start taking control of the team without being undermined.
They think he’s a clubhouse cancer.
They may be right, but he’s certainly the best tight end I’ve ever seen.
“The dude’s a good football player all around, I don’t know why they would dislike the move.”
Gary,
Because he has never met a block that he liked.
CHi Fi,
I can probably answer some coal tech questions for you but have limited info on what companies are doing what. get my e-mail from grim if you want.
The other night I posted a house that I think would be clean enough even for CF.
$399k.
There’s a larger house, more land and probably a more attractive style for many people that’s in the same hood, was bought back at sheriff’s sale in April and the bank has it now on the mls for the grand old price of $325. Some minor cosmetic stuff, plus buyer U&O.
$75k is tough competition for my predatory equity.
I can’t believe NJ is so close and yet so far on the price.
ah – little swiping of cindy’s name too?
“They may be right, but he’s certainly the best tight end I’ve ever seen.”
patient,
Can’t hold a candle to Bavaro.
Did i tell anybody that recent announcements of huge oil finds in brazil and in the bakken Oil shale in the US mean that we have plenty of oil for the next 500 years and the price of oil is up just because of speculators and evil Iran? its true, i was wrong
fraudster – another hint – when you steal handles, you need to read those people’s posts a bit first so that your very first post under their name isn’t so blatantly fraudulent.
Example: Cindy is polite.
just kidding :)
NJ patient,
Cindy also is not from NJ
fraudster
another excellent example at 369 – the real kettle doesn’t believe that.
Stu
If I’m invited, I like a good game of Texas Hold ‘Em
“Can’t hold a candle to Bavaro.”
Bite my tongue – true.
post N333 and 331 were from me.
grim Says:
May 9th, 2008 at 3:58 pm
Hmmmmm. grim does not protect his name at all…
It might be not him.
As I said – Grim has no protection for using his username – he needs to at least protect his username.
BC Bob/njp,
Ok, valid points, I really can’t argue there. Perhaps a change is what he needs. It seemed to work for Plaxico. Either way, I don’t see him on the roster by training camp.
I’m claiming the Dow prediction prize for the day.
Dear Wanna Be Grim
Not only do you not write as well as Grim, you post things that Grim would not post.
You are as transparent as a bad tranny during a rain storm.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2004402311_foreclosureman09m.html
Job Security!
anyways I am off. Lookign forward to swimming home :)
[357],
That’s not Cindy. She’s a class act, not like this simpleton.
BC
of course not
the boob picked one of the nicest denizens of the blog
what a maroon.
oil nearly at $126.
everything is JUST FINE.
Peter Schiffs weekly newsletter,
The Ticking Credit Card Time Bomb
As such, this week’s report showing $15 billion growth in consumer credit was widely heralded as proof of America’s economic strength and resilience. However, we are now suffering the after effects of too much debt, and our salvation cannot be found in more of the same.
Credit card debt, which now stands at whopping $957 billion nationally (approximately $3,000 for every citizen) has, in recent years taken on a different role in American life. While in the past credit cards were used primarily to purchase big ticket items, spreading out costs over many months, they are now increasingly used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been taxed mercilessly by inflation. By buying with available credit instead of unavailable cash, consumers are not simply postponing the pain of higher prices, but compounding it by adding interest to the cost of everyday purchases. In addition, as home equity credit is now unavailable to fund large purchases, many consumers are turning to non-deductible, higher cost credit card debt as the last remaining life line. As such, credit card debt compounds steadily, and for many borrowers, becomes increasingly impossible to pay down.
The statistics tell the tale. According to Equifax, a credit card analysis firm, people have been buying more with their credit cards but paying down less. As a result average balances jumped nearly 9% in 2007 and delinquency rates recently hit a 4-year high of 4.5%.
Also, the reliance on credit cards is preventing some of the markets salutary forces from working. With credit always an option, domestic demand remains strong despite rising prices. Absent the option of putting more costly gasoline on their credit cards, Americans might have actually been forced to cut back on their consumption, taking some of the upward pressure off gas prices.
It should be painfully obvious that expanded consumer credit is not evidence of improvement, but simply, deterioration. Unfortunately, when it comes to understanding the economy, there is little common sense on display. By going even deeper into debt just to make ends meet, American consumers are digging themselves, and our entire economy, into an even greater economic hole and laying the foundation for the next major credit debacle. It’s fitting that just as both Treasury Secretary Paulson and JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon declared that the worst of the crisis has past, we are on the verge of kicking the whole thing into a much higher gear!
My guess is that many Americas continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of every paying it off. Since many who are underwater on the home loans, and behind on the auto and student loans see bankruptcy as a foregone conclusion, they see no downside to pilling on as much debt as possible while the taps remain open.
Those choking on credit card debt may also be taking cheer from the gathering government campaign to bail out over-leveraged homeowners. The sheer numbers of who are afflicted with spiraling monthly payments will make credit card relief a potent political issue for crusading Congressman and Presidential candidates. After all, there are few fundamental differences between those who borrowed too much to buy houses and those who made the same mistake with consumer goods. If the government bails out the former why not the latter? In fact, one reason some homeowners have such large mortgages is that they consolidated their credit card debts into their mortgages each time they refinanced. Why should renters be forced to pay off their credit card debts while homeowners have theirs forgiven?
Soon, as credit card delinquencies rise and losses on pools of securitized credit card debt mount, those supplying the credit will finally get wise to the fact they will never get their money back. As a result the market for such debt will dry up even more quickly than did the market for subprime mortgages. Cards will therefore be much harder to come by and will have much lower limits then they do today. Limited to only the cash in their wallets, Americans will finally be forced to dramatically curtail their spending, and the recession will finally gather serious momentum.
“the boob picked one of the nicest denizens of the blog
what a maroon.”
patient,
Maybe Mike Tyson has joined the blog. He is still confused differentiating between Ruth and Robin. I mean Wooth and Wobin.
idiot (362)-
I hope Grim finds you and kicks your ass.
Get a load of this for 459k in Rumson
$459000 ADORABLE SEASHORE COLONIAL IN RUMSON!
Oops let’s try again
http://cnj.craigslist.org/rfs/674443513.html
“I mean Wooth and Wobin.”
My favorite Tyson phrase was “Murderouth prethithion.”
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Rolls-Royce-Solid-project-car-Low-Reserve_W0QQitemZ200222802699QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item200222802699&
Just for fun I decided to see what the best car deal is I could find in NJ. Well I found a rolls royce in running condition, no dents for $200 bucks. If I was single I would be dragging it home today and would have more tail then a crate of foxes this summer.
JMac – Sorry for the late reply. For casual Greek I like Uncle Nick’s on 9th between 50th and 51st:
http://unclenicksgreekrestaurant.com/index.php
There’s also a turkish restaurant on 9th as well a few blocks further south.
Drinking in midwtown I like Blue Bar in the Algonquin on 44th between 5ht and 6th.
For more downscale there’s Jimmy’s Corner on 44th between 6th and Bway, Rudy’s on 9th between 44th and 45th and don’t laugh, but a coworker of mine said that the new Ruby Tuesday’s in Times Square has a good happy hour and $9 top shelf martinis.
389 Arr
The nastiest bit is the clear attempt to leave the impression that the house is 2,557 square feet (“even tear down to build a 2,557 sq. ft. home!”).
What an oddly specific number to use, unless the idea is to fool someone glancing quickly at the ad.
So much scumbaggery, so little time.
“Murderouth prethithion.”
patient,
Just lost it, both ends. Where else can you get this comedy, on a slow Friday afternoon at the office?
gator
I love Ruby Tuesdays.
#328 grim,
Maybe NJ was late to the party and we are a year or 2 behind California?
Back to Tyson;
“[On his childhood] One morning I woke up and found my favorite pigeon, Julius, had died I was devastated and was gonna use his crate as my stickball bat to honor him. I left the crate on my stoop and went in to get something and I returned to see the sanitation man put the crate into the crusher. I rushed him and caught him flush on the temple with a titanic right hand he was out cold, convulsing on the floor like an infantile retard.”
BC – here’s the fight (in it’s entirety)
Not for the squeamish:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MY3RtJUrD8
#309 John,
I did not have a trade in. Plus there wasn’t an application fee. I also told them I wasn’t paying a penny for some bs pinstriping or other nonsense.
I got the car for $1 over dealer invoice and 1.9% financing 72 months, no trade in, no bs add ons from the dealer. I did pay $100 for a doc fee. That still bugs me a bit.
It was a 2007 remainder. The 2008 would have been higher interest rates and no where near dealer invoice. I could care less is it’s a brand new 07 or 08. I’m just cheap.
patient [398],
Was that Trevor Berbick or 50.5 in that ring?
for $200 bucks
The words you missed were ‘Reserve not met’.
bairen, you just rubbed salt in an old wound.
When I bought the Honda in November, I did the internet buy, but paid cash because they offered lousy rates, even for good credit.
I picked a car, but at the last minute, they pulled the old “oh, we’ll have to get that color out of our storage.” Apparently, the one on the lot was promised.
So in comes the car, pinstriping..et.al. $300 extra bucks. I say, “I don’t want pinstriping and it looks like h3ll, anyway.”
They rip off the pinstriping.
I’m the youngetht champion ever in the hithtory of the thport. My record will latht for immortality.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljcqgVg3i04
#391 john
That is definitely classic John. Not an imposter.
“Was that Trevor Berbick or 50.5 in that ring?”
lol
Wow. Lot’s of activity today on the blog.
As for the car, even at invoice the dealer can make money. You have to see if there are any manufacturer to dealer incentives and if there are any holdbacks as well.
Given all that, I still prefer the method John mentioned. Depreciation kills you every time. The curve is the steepest the first 3 years.
397
oh my
#402 Pat,
They tried that pinstriping on my father once. Dealer claimed it was the cost of doing business. My father yelled out “Why not just give me the f-ing light bill”.
When they bring up warranties I love to yell “Warranty, warranty, are you selling me a POS!!” More money comes off the table after that one.
Hobokenite,
That Maxwell place short sale sure is an outlier at $583 per sq ft. Some of the others are selling in the $700-$800 per sqft range. Granted the short sale is low floor and looks like it is overlooking the street it is still an early indicator of what is to come in the area. Wall Street has only started scaling back in the last 6 months – 1 yr.
patient,
How about the liqour salesman from Bayonne? Ali beat the pulp out of him, yet Chuck went 15.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtJ3BhcpyMA&feature=related
liquor
407 was not me.
I’m not happening enough to have my handle swiped.
sigh
WNYC was having talk on subprime today evening. It will be posted here later today.
Global Pool of Money Got Too Hungry
If downtown Jersey City is an indicator, it looks like sales are off and businesses of all kinds are hurting. Bankers et al aren’t spending freely anymore.
Probably in theaters nationwide toward the end of the summer/fall.
http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html
Opening a new thread