Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Posted on May 9, 2008 by grim

Now Open, Part II!

Prior weekend thread closed due to comment overflow

This entry was posted in General. Bookmark the permalink.

213 Responses to Weekend Open Discussion – Part II

Wag says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:23 pm

grim – good to have you back, been an ‘interesting’ afternoon.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:23 pm

From the Star Ledger:

A.C. losing streak continues

April brought no relief for the Atlantic City casinos. Revenue from the 11 gambling parlors fell 7.9 percent last month, to $365.5 million. Only Harrah’s showed an increase — of 2.7 percent, to $43.4 million.

Atlantic City has been under pressure since a partial smoking ban took effect a year ago and competition from Pennsylvania and New York kicked into high gear. High gas prices and a slowing economy also haven’t helped.

The biggest losers last month were Hilton, Bally’s, Caesars, Showboat and the Trump Taj Mahal, which all reported double-digit declines. In some cases — such as the Taj — casinos succumbed to bad luck at the table games. But competition for slot players continued to take its toll.

Slot revenue in April fell 8.8 percent to $159.3 million. And table revenue decreased 5.5 percent to $106.2 million.

For the first four months of the year, casino revenue has fallen 6.7 percent.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:34 pm

I see I missed the fun.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:37 pm

I’m not sure if we had a billion dollars in RMBS and CDO downgrades this rainy Friday afternoon, but it appears we had a bank failure.

There were three FDIC-insured bank failures in total last year; we’re not even halfway through the year and we’ve already hit three.

http://www.fdic.gov/news/news/press/2008/pr08033.html

ANB Financial, National Association, Bentonville, Arkansas, was closed today by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named receiver. To protect depositors, the FDIC’s Board of Directors approved the assumption of the insured deposits of ANB Financial by Pulaski Bank and Trust Company, Little Rock, Arkansas.
…
The transaction is the least costly resolution option, and the FDIC estimates that the cost to its Deposit Insurance Fund is approximately $214 million. ANB Financial is the third FDIC-insured institution to fail this year, and the first in Arkansas since Sinclair National Bank, Gravette, Arkansas, on September 7, 2001. Last year, three FDIC-insured institutions failed.
lostinny says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:43 pm

Grim is that the real you or the fake you?
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:46 pm

From MarketWatch:

E-Trade to exit retail mortgage origination business

E-Trade Financial Corp. said it decided in April to exit the retail mortgage origination business, its last remaining loan origination channel, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing late Friday.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:48 pm

Oh, this hurts.

From CNBC:

Boats, Motor Homes Get Caught in Credit Squeeze

General Electric’s decision this week to no longer lend consumers money to buy motorhomes and boats was more bad news for the recreational vehicle and boat industry.

While the move by GE Money is likely to prompt the many other lenders in this sector to tighten credit standards and push borrowing costs higher, analysts say it won’t significantly worsen the industry’s admittedly dismal fundamental outlook.
…
In March, the most recent month for which data is available, RV industry wholesale shipments fell 17 percent, pulled down by a 27 percent decline in motorhomes and a 36 percent drop in shipments of the very biggest and most profitable vehicles.
…
The recreational marine business is in the midst of a downturn that is just as stark.
…
Those declines come on top of the 13 percent decline in powerboat wholesale shipments the industry suffered in 2007, “Same-store sales of boats have been horrendous,” says Marisa Thompson, an analyst at Morningstar.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:55 pm

Grim is that the real you or the fake you?

Wet, but me.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 6:56 pm

From the APP:

Eatontown man sentenced to 7 years for stealing $1 million

An Eatontown man was sentenced today to seven years in state prison for stealing $1 million from K. Hovnanian, while employed as an in-house attorney for the company.

Scott R. Baron, 50, of Eatontown, was sentenced to seven years in state prison by Superior Court Judge Bette E. Uhrmacher in Monmouth County, according to State Attorney General Anne Milgram and Criminal Justice Director Gregory A. Paw.

Baron was sentenced for the K. Hovnanian theft, as well as two other thefts that occurred after he was laid off by K. Hovnanian. In each case, Baron gambled away the stolen funds, according to Paw.
bairen says:

May 9, 2008 at 7:00 pm

#7 grim,

Looks like Booya Bob will be able to pick up some of his toys on the cheap.
BC Bob says:

May 9, 2008 at 7:04 pm

“Oh, this hurts.”

[7]

Boats. Actually it feels good.
Pat says:

May 9, 2008 at 7:21 pm

Does anyone know whether problems downloading Adobe Flash 9.0 are more likely to occur because I didn’t uninstall the old version or because of a Windows problem? I don’t want to do both fixes if somebody already knows it’s mostly one of them.
grim says:

May 9, 2008 at 7:27 pm

From the Voice of America:

US Home Sales Continue to Decline as Housing Sector Remains Weak

Economist Mark Zandi says the nearly nine million homeowners with negative equity are particularly vulnerable in this weak economy. “These folks are in big negative equity positions. If there is any disruption to their income at all, they have a major problem. And disruption to income doesn’t mean what it used to. Disruption to income ten years ago meant death, divorce or major disability. Disruption of income now means, well, I have to replace two tires (on my car), or my water heater broke,” he said.

Alan Meltzer, a professor at Carnegie Mellon University, says it is hard to predict how homeowners with negative equity in their principal asset-their home-will adjust their spending. “The people who see the value of their houses go down, do they assume that they are going to stay down? Or, do they assume that they never should have risen as much? And therefore they are not going to allow their long-term (spending) behavior to be affected?,” he said.

Desmond Lachman, an economist at Washington’s American Enterprise Institute, believes home prices will fall by another 10 to 15 percent this year. Mainly because of the housing slump, Lachman believes the US economy will register negative growth this year.
sas says:

May 9, 2008 at 7:55 pm

Nobody wants a vacant house, even the banks.

if you are starting down foreclosure, stay there as long as you can.

Just talked to someone whom hasn’t made a mortgage payment since last July (but, I think he is paying the taxes).

He tells me at this point, the bank doesn’t care because he is taking care of the house and the bank doesn’t have the liability, and worry about deteroiation and vandals.

antedodal story, but still interesting.

Yes, times sure have changed since Aug/Sept 05.

SAS
sas says:

May 9, 2008 at 8:11 pm

this also tells you…
nobody knows the depth of this RE problems.

yikes.

SAS
rhymingrealtor says:

May 9, 2008 at 8:16 pm

It’s hard to catch up with the comments these days
But, an abundance of comments is the best form of praise
So, I just found out there a name stealer on board
However I’m upset my handle was ignored

They had enough nerve to steal the moderator’s name
And our really nice teacher, now that is a shame!

But they made no attempt to pretend to be me!
Because it’s not easy, that’s now plain to see!
You can pretend to be smart, polite, even witty!
But I dare this imposter to come up with a ditty!

You can impersonate, plagiar, or commit other crimes
But you will never, never be the realtor that rhymes!

KL
lostinny says:

May 9, 2008 at 8:47 pm

OT:
For those warped enough:

http://www.coffincouches.com/
Frank says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:08 pm

“A.C. losing streak continues”

Smoking ban is a total B.S. people are still smoking right on the floor. The reason people don’t go to AC because it’s a dump, the casinos are old and nasty and the smell of smoking makes me puke. Look at Borgata they have no problems with revenue growth.
Hey Trump stop chasing teenagers and take care of the business.
Frank says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:16 pm

NJ RE inventory hit 100,000 today
Frank says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:20 pm

Hoboken inventory hit 640. Wow!!!
How about lower the prices for those overpriced shoe boxes?
Frank says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:23 pm

When the 10,000 Bear employees hit the street next month, will Sinatra Park in Hoboken turn in to a tent city?
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:35 pm

Hi Folks, Say… Thanks njpatient, BC Bob, Kettle1, and Clotpoll…I felt like my older brothers were sticking up for me…

This really is me – Cindy. I can’t even find what someone posted in my name. Maybe Grim “brought it down.” I post before I go to work – like 4:00 AM to 7:00 AM for me here -but then I don’t post all day and usually read in the evenings or early AM before I would make a comment.

So if it was after 7AM ..it wasn’t me!

Thanks again, folks – You Rock!
bairen says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:36 pm

When this bust bottoms and if we haven’t descended into a Mad Max or Great Depression 2 world, what are we going to talk about?

Seriously. If it wasn’t for the internet I wouldn’t know what to do at work all day.
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 9:39 pm

(16) And thanks rhyming too….
That comes from me to you…
BC Bob says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:04 pm

Cindy,

Whovever posted that is not a NJ native. Anybody born and bred on the streets of NJ would never conduct themselves in that manner. A true Jerseyite would never pretend; pose as an impostor. A real Jerseyean will look you in the eye, rob you blind and ask how did you like that *ss whooping. No need to play games.

I can almost guarantee that impostor has never been called a Benny, doesn’t know where to get Taylor Ham and Cheese on a hard roll after 3:00 AM and has never been dragged into the Belmar precinct for having sex on the beach after a day/night stint at DJais.
bts says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:05 pm

“Nobody wants a vacant house, even the banks.”

I put in a lowball offer on a bank owned property (20% less than the list) in prestigious Bergen County. The bank rejected the offer outright and didn’t even counter. I subsequently learned they also rejected a separate offer 10% below list. I guess they would rather eat the carrying costs than take a loss on the loan. Seems kind of short sighted to not even counter though.
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:08 pm

Hey BC – So a Taylor Ham and Cheese on a hard roll is something I have to try if I’m ever over your way?…sounds great.

BTW -Who in their right mind is going to take on Shawn Alaxander now that Seattle cut him lose?…My daughter, son-in-law are soooo pleased he’s gone…
njpatient says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:09 pm

16 KL

I luv u
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:10 pm

sas (14)-

I personally know over two dozen people doing the exact same thing.

In each of those situations (three of which I’m currently doing short sales on), I’m fairly sure the banks are thrilled to have the houses occupied and maintained…even by a party who’s stiffing them for tens of thousands of dollars.
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:11 pm

kl (16)-

We are not worthy.
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:11 pm

lost (17)-

You are the ultimate goth chick. :)
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:13 pm

cindy,

aww shucks, i always wanted a little sister! ;)

someone posing as you made an unflattering comment involving grim and Mrs patient. Grim corrected the situation and i suspect an IP address has been banned

I have noticed that it is harder then most people think to impersonate someone, because like speech typing has certain thought patterns unique to that individual which are hard to copy
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:14 pm

Cindy (27)-

“So a Taylor Ham and Cheese on a hard roll is something I have to try if I’m ever over your way?…sounds great.”

Yeah, great…after you’ve consumed about 26 beers.
njpatient says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:15 pm

18 Frank

Too right
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:15 pm

(26) bts – “the bank rejected the offer outright…”
The banks were doing that here too (California) until just recently. They discovered they were leaving thousands on the table as they watched the prices decline. I don’t know if the inventory hits a tipping point or what but now the banks are dealing (we are running on average 30% below 2006 highs in the Fresno area for foreclosures.)
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:15 pm

Cindy (27)-

“Who in their right mind is going to take on Shawn Alaxander now…”

Isn’t he in a wheelchair?
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:16 pm

Bairen 23

Mad Max is unlikely although a distant possibility. Great Depression 2 is becoming more likely everyday as king george, Bergabe and friends continue along with their merry antics.

don’t worry, one way or another you are witnessing the beginning of the downfall of the American empire, that will provide plenty to debate and discuss
lostinny says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:18 pm

31 Clot
Not me. I wouldn’t want it. I’m just amazed that people would buy those things. I don’t even think in my gothic hayday I could have gotten one. Gives me the willies!
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:19 pm

Cindy (35)-

Less than a year ago, I submitted a short sale package to Commerce Bank on a second mortgage that would’ve given them 35% of their balance outstanding as a payoff on a second mortgage. They told me to stick it…then told the first to go ahead and foreclose.

Today, Commerce contacted me with their own short sale scenario on a property in trouble.

My response to them?

Unprintable.
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:20 pm

(33) Clot…..Okay – So the Taylor Ham and cheese goes AFTER the 26 beers….that explains the whole sex on the beach and the police thing…
Frank says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:20 pm

Gaming in Atlantic City has slowly been on the decline as of late yet MGM Atlantic City developers are confident that their new multi-billion dollar project will be a smash hit with locals and visitors. In the final construction of the MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City developers promise an outstanding casino hotel which will total about $5 billion and will be the biggest hotel casino ever built in the city. One of the many resounding reasons the MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City promises an extraordinary success story is because of the many people who love gaming but just aren’t willing or able to shell out the cost of transportation to Las Vegas. The need has been identified and MGM is planning on catering to it.

The buzz on Atlantic City streets is a number of casino hotels will be renovating for a new take on looks some say are getting tired. The biggest hype is directed at MGM Grand Atlantic City which is expected to be finished in five years. Once MGM Atlantic City is completed it’s even expected to outshine Wynn Las Vegas which is the current record holder for the biggest, most expensive and most luxurious project that made its debut in 2005.

Developers see the decline in Atlantic City gaming as a “temporary phenomenon” and see “ the long-term growth potential for Atlantic City as very real.” according to a gaming insider. The MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City will be the twelfth addition to MGM’s casino hotels and is expected to be the most opulent facility to date. MGM owns 50 percent of The Borgata Hotel Casino Spa in Atlantic City, a venture that’s proved to be extremely successful for the group. MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City is expected to be highly successful based on many of the principles used inside the Borgata as well as plans for an adopted level of service unsurpassed by any Atlantic City hotel casinos.

Property details for the MGM Grand Atlantic City include three unmistakable hotel towers, each appealing to a different sector of the market. The first will be designed with a “more contemporary feel” as explained by MGM Atlantic City spokesman Mr. Absher. The more modern theme will likely attract those with an appreciation for a more avant-garde feel, possibly a younger crowd who enjoy the many nightclubs and events catering to their generation.

The second tower will be created with upper class individuals in mind. The location of the MGM Atlantic City will be perfect for those who love high-class entertainment and those who enjoy the more cultured side of city life such as museums and galleries. The third and last tower will be designed strictly for “high rollers.” It will contain the most luxurious suites “for high rollers or those who are willing to pay to be treated like high rollers.”

Also in the works for the MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City are a spa, a business convention center, hundreds of thousands of square feet of retails space and a 1,500 seat theater expected to host the most up and coming Atlantic City shows. With competition coming from many angles, such as Harrah’s Atlantic City which completed major renovations over the last few years, MGM Grand Hotel Atlantic City will have its work cut out for them. With a boost in modernizing and revamping, many hotels will likely follow suit, but MGM Atlantic City seems to be the most promising aspect in new ventures in Atlantic City over the next few years.

http://www.destination360.com/north-america/us/new-jersey/atlantic-city/mgm-grand-atlantic-city.php
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:22 pm

Make money, patient

a gtg at my place?

http://tinyurl.com/9j2re
lostinny says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:24 pm

44 Kettle
That’s the no girls club isn’t it?
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:25 pm

lost (46)-

That thing looks like a pillbox on the Normandy coast.
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:26 pm

vodka (47)-

Yeah.
rhymingrealtor says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:26 pm

I actually missed these fake posts, I checked in after they had been deleted. While I always get my fill of laughs, wit, and wisdom from this blog, sounds like the fake posts provided more fun than usual.

KL

PS: I luv you 2 NJpatient (;
Everything's Hobroken says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:27 pm

Please vote for or suggest an alternate appropriate name for the tent city coming soon to a local park near you:

Bush Briar,
Greenspan Gulch,
Bernanke Bend,
NAR Acres,
Grim Valley?
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:28 pm

(36) “Isn’t he in a wheelchair?” Well he sure PLAYED like he belonged in one…

(40) – So, does that mean your market is running about a year behind ours? Don’t these folks talk to each other/ learn from their peers?..Do you think there is a time frame when NJ will be in the situation we are in?
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:29 pm

Lost,

all are welcome i have room for everyone!

http://tinyurl.com/4w69ab
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:29 pm

and toys for clott!

http://tinyurl.com/4eqond
lostinny says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:30 pm

53
Kettle
Yay for dorms!
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:30 pm

rhyming

you didnt miss much, the imposter wasnt very creative or very funny for that matter, just very obvious
Cindy says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:41 pm

(51) Everything’s -for us it would be:

California Dreamin’

A place was in the paper yesterday that I know must have been similar to mine – (a few blocks away) foreclosre for $188,000. – Probably $300,000 to $310,000 at the high in 06.
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:45 pm

BC

have you noticed this? This sort of behavior should be a wakeup call to certain people

#1
Saudi eyes food investments overseas, stockpiles
FOOD CRISIS: Saudi Arabia has said it plans to stockpile basic foods to secure long-term supply. Saudi Arabia moved on Monday to create facilities to stockpile basic staples and said it would increase global investments to ensure its long-term food security….
…The UAE said on Monday it plans to buy farms in Pakistan in a bid to reduce the impact of export bans and spiralling food prices. (Reuters)

#2
Qatar stakes claim on Cambodian farmland
Qatar plans to invest approximately $200 million in Cambodia’s agricultural sector as the Gulf state looks to secure food supplies amid surging world prices….Qatar aims to lock in a deal to secure some of the purchasing options on yields from the crops, giving the Gulf state an opportunity to stake a claim on a reliable future food supply

#3
China looking to buy farmland abroad to stay self sufficient in food
Chinese companies will be encouraged to buy farmland abroad, particularly in Africa and South America, to help guarantee food security under a plan being considered by Beijing…..China is losing its ability to be self-sufficient in food as its rising wealth triggers a shift away from diet staples such as rice towards meat, which requires large amounts of imported feed.
PGC says:

May 9, 2008 at 10:50 pm

Wel I was no imposted and I still think as wth Buffet sweeping up the prime muni business, someone is going to make a boat load of cash on undervalued SIV’s. I would love to geta hold of a SIV prospectus. It may be 70,000 pages long, but if you could workout a way to strip out the addresses and % of loan in the pool, you could start working out how much of the pool would default and how much ovevalued or undervalused the pool was. You could farm out the analysis to a BPO shop in India or Vietnam.
njpatient says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:06 pm

42 clot

I’ve got a blowtorch and some pliers. Where are we meeting?
BC Bob says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:08 pm

“(33) Clot…..Okay – So the Taylor Ham and cheese goes AFTER the 26 beers….that explains the whole sex on the beach and the police thing…”

Cindy,

Don’t listen to Clot. His scorecard, if it’s not on the menu at the Peabody, it doesn’t rate. After all what the hell does a Volunteer know about Taylor Ham?

You must eat before the 26 beers. Coat the stomach. You must start with the proper foundation. After the 26 beers, it’s a double TH&C, with a side order of home fries.
BC Bob says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:11 pm

kettle [58],

Got corn? Opec has the oil cartel, the fed has the banking cartel, it’s time for our farmers to set up the grain cartel.
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:12 pm

BC bob,

correction,

it’s a double TH&C, with a side order of cheese fries
still_looking says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:15 pm

63 ket,

Book your angioplasty now.

egads.

sl
movinB says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:15 pm

Disco fries!
njpatient says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:21 pm

44 ket
Yes! I just found a great South African Cab at $5.99 that I can bring a couple cases of. That, a bunch of peanut butter and we’ll be good for months. We’d be better off with clot’s rusty grenade launcher.
Also, Mrs. Patient is vicious with a bow and arrow – we should bring her and Painhrtz – I likes me some venison!
njpatient says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:28 pm

63 ket

Hell yeah

Nekkid fries – jeebus!
PGC says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:51 pm

The PGC clan has finally moved into our nice BC REO. While most of the repairs are complete, we are still without a kitchen; we have been eating out a lot in the area.

We are a family that likes to recycle. “Reduce Reuse Recycle”. While I am big on the first two sorting paper, plastic batteries etc., Mrs. PGC embraces the last. She likes to recycle items other people have put out for garbage. Furniture, toys gardening tools, if it can be cleaned up, it is fair game. A good example is the toy kitchen my kids love playing with. http://www.toysrus.com/product/index.jsp?productId=2316865
This came from the curb of a boomer couple getting ready for an Open House. Anything that she doesn’t use herself will get sent on to other families or to charity shops. While this makes me cringe with embarrassment at times, her usual comment is “get over it”

Tonight’s trip to dinner, took us through Upper Haughtyville. While I was admiring the Realty, she was surfing the lawns. I got the dreaded “Stop the car”. She got out and loaded half of “Melissa and Treys” toy room into the back of the van. I pointed out that the Fisher Price bouncy seat she was holding was the same one we had at home, so why didn’t she leave it for some nice housekeeper or gardener with kids or grandkids, she replied “but this is last years redesigned model, ours is five years old and broken. I have to admit she got a pretty good haul. I annoyed some “Masters of the Universe” on their commute home as they wee delayed 5 seconds, as they had to slow the 8 series or the Merc to pass the van. They let me know their thoughts by sounding their horn, Mrs. PGC gave her reply with a single digit. I had to detour on the way back and pretend to get lost as she had second thoughts on the planters and the orchid pots and wanted to go back. I have to make sure that this will not be a Friday night ritual.

If anyone is interested there was a very nice Webber grill on West Haughytville Road, I have to say I was tempted, but I don’t like grilling on propane.
kettle1 says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:52 pm

and that would be cheese fries and a double TH&C from the white rose for all you brigadoon denizens
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:52 pm

Cindy (52)-

“Don’t these folks talk to each other/ learn from their peers?”

Bankers? You must be kidding. Bankers are just Realtors with a shred of education.
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:55 pm

PGC (59)-

“…if you could workout a way to strip out the addresses and % of loan in the pool, you could start working out how much of the pool would default and how much ovevalued or undervalused the pool was.”

PGC, there’s already software out there that will pry apart a SIV or CDO into its component parts. The buzzards are already looking for the babies that have been tossed out with the bath water.
Clotpoll says:

May 9, 2008 at 11:59 pm

patient (60)-

Who is Keyser Soze?
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:01 am

BC (61)-

I’m from Memphis. I know quality pig when I encounter it.

There’s your fastball. Whack away.
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:01 am

Chili-cheese fries for me.

Heavy on the Tabasco.
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:30 am

PGC – Mrs PGC sounds like my kind of woman. I do exactly the same thing, as does Mr. Lisoosh. Very environmentally friendly and socially conscious.

Haughtyville yard sales are good too, especially at the last half hour when they dread having to pack that stuff back in, they’ll just hand it over.
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:33 am

If anybody out there subscribes to the notion that hemlines follow the economy –

Most hard to get summer item out there is the floor length maxi dress. Just like from the ’70’s. Perfect to go with the orange shag carpeting in the houses Gary looks at and the ’70’s era mini cars.

It’s going to be a long tough recession.
movinB says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:35 am

Just rifling through some old papers sent to me by my folks from when we started looking at real estate in BC in early 08…

Could someone give me a history on mls # 2746481?

My “records” show it listed at $530k in or around January 08, but the most recent LP is $380k, and it was allegedly sold in 5/06 at $445k… Mr. movinB doesn’t believe me. Thanks in advance!
movinB says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:38 am

#77 – Looks like most recent is $390k, I mean
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 4:04 am

“Heavy on the Tabasco. ”

Darn tootin’
grim says:

May 10, 2008 at 5:43 am

From Prudential Fox and Roach:

Philadelphia Real Estate – Pending Home Sales Decrease

The Greater Philadelphia region saw a 9.6 percent decrease in March real estate activity moving to an index of 69.8 from the upwardly revised February index of 77.2, according to The Prudential Fox & Roach, Realtors® HomExpert Pending Home Sales Index©. The March index indicates the market is 34.9 percent lower than March 2007.
…
Based on the forward-looking indicator, real estate activity in the five-county Southeastern Pennsylvania fell 10.7 percent from a revised index of 84.5 in February to 75.5 in March, recording the lowest index for the area over the past year. Bucks County saw an 18.3 percent decrease in March, its fourth consecutive decrease moving from an index of 87.5 in November 2007 to 60.9 in March. Montgomery County faired the best of the five-county area with a 2.6 percent decrease in March, followed by Chester County falling 8.5 percent. Center City and the Main Line area both saw a decrease in real estate activity, falling 7.5 percent and 7.3 percent respectively.

Southern New Jersey pending home sales fell 2.8 percent, indicating the best market improvement in the tri-state region, moving from a revised index of 63.9 in February to 62.1 in March. Gloucester County saw the largest increase in real estate activity, growing 9.6 percent from a revised February index of 69.7 to 76.4 in March. Burlington County was the only other county in the 12-county area to see an increase in pending home sales in March, increasing 3.7 percent. Delaware real estate activity fell 18.2 percent in March.
grim says:

May 10, 2008 at 5:45 am

From Newsday:

The competition next door

The aroma of chicken and rice floats through the air. Ramon Tavarez, who speaks Spanish, says through his real estate agent that the Melito kids next door often come over to eat, and, judging from the smell, who can blame them? But it’s not just the food that draws them: It’s the company.

There is a good relationship between the neighboring families on Davison Street in Oceanside. Tavarez, the owner of a landscaping business, even does Lisa and Jimmy Melito’s yard work for free, says Maria Carrasquillo of Coldwell Banker Beach West in Long Beach, interpreting for her client.

But both homeowners happen to have their Dutch Colonials up for sale, and each says they think their house is a better deal.
…
Tavarez has had his house on the market for 17 months. The five-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath house had been listed for $525,000. The asking price is now $495,000, a price Lisa Melito says she believes is a mistake. The Melitos’ three-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath house is listed for $399,000, down from its original price of $439,000 when they listed it 15 months ago.

Both families say the other does not pose a threat, and that they are appealing to a different type of buyer. But, being next-door neighbors, they share a lot of traffic flow and, admittedly, often are compared, nonetheless.
…
According to the April housing figures from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island, in just a year the median closing price for home sales on Long Island and in Queens has dropped from $440,000 to $415,000, or 5.7 percent. (In Nassau, the median price decreased from $473,800 in April 2007 to $447,000, or 5.7 percent; in Suffolk, the price went down from $400,000 to $370,000, or 7.5 percent.)

Some agents predict prices will soon drop even lower in this flurry of foreclosures and stagflation, a combination of inflation and a sluggish economy.

There’s been a 7.8 percent increase in the number of houses on the market. In April there were 36,790 houses for sale on Long Island and in Queens. In April 2007, there were 34,129. In Nassau, it would take nearly 14 months to sell all 10,486 residential properties on the market, based on the current pace of sales; in Suffolk, it would take 18 months to sell all 14,809 properties; the 11,495 listings in Queens would take almost 19 months.
grim says:

May 10, 2008 at 5:53 am

From the APP:

N.J. may add 20-cent deposit to cans, bottles

New Jerseyans may soon pay as much as 20 cents extra when buying beverages in bottles and cans as part of an effort to boost recycling and combat litter.

The Assembly environment committee is slated Monday to discuss a 10-cent deposit for bottles and cans less than 24 ounces and 20 cents for larger ones up to 3 liters.

The bill would apply to juice, sport drinks, water, soda, wine and beer containers.

Consumers would get the money back by returning the containers to newly created redemption centers or to retailers.

The bill also would let the state keep uncollected deposits and use the money for environmental projects such as land preservation, litter cleanup and park beautification. New York has had as much as $80 million in annual unredeemed deposits.

“We can get some money back into the state, which right now we’re in dire need of, and secondly help keep New Jersey green,” said Assemblywoman Valerie Vainieri Huttle, D-Bergen.
ithink-ithink says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:27 am

Lost & the coffin couch are ~~goth~~ steampunk now.

http://steampunkworkshop.com/victorian-all-one-pc
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:50 am

79 I think
While I think (no pun) that your link is very cool, I’m not sure that’s me either. I think if I had that computer set up, DH would force me to wear my corsets every day just to get the full effect. Corsets are fun but I’m not one for corset training. I like my organs where they are.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:11 am

Activists: COAH’s dragging its feet
Housing group asks court for special master

Activists who want an appeals court to appoint a special master to oversee the state’s affordable housing effort yesterday charged the Council on Affordable Housing will not meet a court-ordered deadline for finalizing new housing construction guidelines and is intentionally dragging its feet.

On Tuesday, COAH approved regulations designed to direct cities and towns on how to provide affordable housing, an action an appeals court ordered completed by June 2. But COAH also introduced a number of amendments, which, if approved, would not go into effect until October at the earliest.
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:11 am

I just watched this week’s Wealthtrack and you guys are all about this one – babies out in the bathwater and Alt E. My daughter says she liked the last guy and he seemed smart (Kevin Landis).

If we weren’t headed up to take Grandma to dinner at West Point, I’d spend the day picking apart Tocqueville. It’s time to rebalance. Clot, you’re not busy today, are you? ;)

PGC, that’s my kind of recycling. I have some issues with your technique. Personally, I’d never pick on my way to a restaurant in the early evening. Best is weekday mornings before bulk pick-up in each town. That’s when the folks who couldn’t be bothered having a Saturday yardsale put their stuff out.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:13 am

Towns mull COAH lawsuit

Municipal officials in Cranbury and Monroe may join with the State League of Municipalities in a possible challenge to the state’s new affordable housing rules.

On Tuesday, the Council on Affordable Housing adopted revised third-round regulations. COAH proposed its new third-round rules on Dec. 17, nearly a year after a state appellate panel invalidated the previous set of third-round rules. The rules were subjected to a public-comment period that ended March 22 and resulted in COAH making amendments, including a reduction in the number of units generated by warehousing.

Municipal officials around the state had been critical of the rules proposed in December, which more than double the number of required units statewide from 52,000 to 115,000 by 2018. They say the increased population density would lower the quality of life and strain schools.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:20 am

Fannie Mae ready to ‘feast’ on housing bust

CEO Dan Mudd shrugs off rising losses, saying lucrative new business will see the lender through the crunch.

NEW YORK (Fortune) — Fannie Mae shares took off after the mortgage lender said it expects to “feast” on opportunities created by the housing crisis.

CEO Daniel Mudd told analysts on a Tuesday morning conference call that the sharp decline in house prices will mean rising credit losses for Fannie Mae (FNM, Fortune 500) this year and next. Credit costs hit $3.2 billion in the first quarter, up from $3 billion in the fourth quarter, as defaults rose and recoveries on foreclosed properties fell. Those costs saddled Fannie with a $2.2 billion first-quarter loss, helping to explain why the company moved Tuesday to raise $6 billion in new capital and cut its dividend by 29%.

Fannie admits that those loans are a source of concern, but said it’s working to mitigate the problems. The firm said it had a 56% workout ratio in March, reflecting its ability to keep troubled borrowers in their homes, execs said. “That’s good for credit losses and good for stabilizing neighborhoods,” chief business officer Robert Levin said.

For his part, Mudd said he wouldn’t try to call a bottom on house prices, as “that’s a fool’s errand,” he said. But he added that he believes that the worst of the shocks tied to the debt market unrest over the past year are behind us, and that “we’re settling into working our way through the trough here.”
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:21 am

Despite Housing Bust, Home Improvement Projects Continue

Ace Hardware Survey Reveals DIYers Looking for Help

OAK BROOK, Ill., May 8 —
Experts expect a continued housing market bust, but a recent Ace Hardware survey revealed one in four Americans plan to tackle home improvement projects in the next few months and most will spend more than $1,000 this year. Research indicates these improvement projects continue to boom thanks in part to more do-it-yourselfers heading to the Internet (66 percent), engaging their family (49 percent) and asking their friends (46 percent) for time and money-saving help.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:22 am

How the Housing Bust Is Boosting Newspapers

Foreclosure notices are filling in where condo sales and auto deals once held sway. “There are definitely more than we’ve ever seen,” says Ginger Stanley, executive director of the Virginia Press Association. “I’ve been in the business 30 years.” Here’s what Stanley’s talking about: On March 13, the Washington Post’s classifieds section totaled 22 pages, approximately 14 of which were devoted to what are technically known as “trustee’s sales.”
ithink-ithink says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:23 am

Colossal Castle or Humble Home?

http://www.divinecaroline.com/article/22297/49153-colossal-castle-humble-home–price

OT /rant
There really is truly nothing to see, America is fine, the world too. (the environment could use some help.)

when consumer decisions are like that guy with the pocket knife cutting off his arm stuck in the rocks, pissing & moaning may begin.

There’s too many people on bicycles for excercise than as a mode of actual transportation. (p.s. i hate you on wednesday evenings when i’m trying to go home. especially you ‘gang’ types. driving your polluting SUV to then go clog up the road in one big cluster. damn dirty hippies, cut your kid’s hair!)

Our poor our dying from malnutrition because they are drinking soda since it’s cheaper than milk, not cos there’s a food shortage.

We still have a people are too fat problem.

Too many people are still watching tv, not deciding to have the lightbulb on instead. & batteries are still selling for cheap, if someone walked in silence, there’s your harbinger.

& so what if there is an energy/commodity crunch or bubble that gets bigger. maybe in 5 years as the number of beater cars goes up, SUVs down & less new hit the street, it’ll “seem” like gloom & doom but this country will still be rollin 25 & pimpin it vs. the number of those who will have to or make the choice to walk…

unless govt etches flies on everything, there’s no nudge going on.

sucks if you lost your job though, that makes it tough.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:25 am

Government Got What It Asked for in Housing Bust: Caroline Baum

April 25 (Bloomberg) — In its rush to hold hearings, assign blame and seek redress for the collapse of the housing market, the U.S. Congress has looked every which way but inward.

No wonder. Homeownership-for-all has been a goal of policy for so long lawmakers have forgotten the role they played in the current spate of “no-doc” loans gone bad.
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:36 am

This question may seem impossible to answer on the surface, but I’m not looking for accuracy, just opinion. I realize this is not your market.

Here’s a house, almost priced right and perfectly staged. This is a duplicate posting, be forewarned.
http://tinyurl.com/444ysv

Here’s another to compare:
http://tinyurl.com/3nqurr

Theoretically, if House A is priced right, then House B should have approximately $75k of repairs. But that seems unrealistic. I’ve not been in the house, though, and have no insider knowledge, other than the fact that the house was bought back by the bank about three weeks ago at the sheriff’s sale.
Foreclosure probably took since last July, but we had a really warm winter, so no chance of water damage.

How close are we, at this point, to estimating true worth by REO pricing? One year?
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:37 am

Hi, JB, could you remove the moderation on that one at 7:36? Thanks. Pat
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:42 am

I’m a fan of Mrs. PGC as well.
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:43 am

Lost (80)-

“Corsets are fun but I’m not one for corset training. I like my organs where they are.”

Not willing to relocate your spleen to your throat for the sake of fashion?

Lightweight.
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:48 am

SG (84)-

“Fannie Mae shares took off after the mortgage lender said it expects to “feast” on opportunities created by the housing crisis.”

Oh, boy. A GSE, on the brink of insolvency, reveals its renewed appetite for insane amounts of risk (“opportunities” is the euphemism for that risk, used in the statement above). This is like a trust fund kid racing a Ferrari that Dad gave him.

If he crashes the Ferrari into the wall, no big whoop. He just gets another one.
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:56 am

91 Clot
Nope. I love wearing my corsets. I just don’t like the taste of bile.
schabadoo says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:12 am

Tavarez has had his house on the market for 17 months. The five-bedroom, 2 1/2-bath house had been listed for $525,000. The asking price is now $495,000

17 months
$30k

Shrewd.
grim says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:17 am

17 months

Talk about putting your life on hold…
Shore Guy says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:35 am

From the first thread: “Credit card debt, which now stands at whopping $957 billion nationally (approximately $3,000 for every citizen) has, in recent years taken on a different role in American life. While in the past credit cards were used primarily to purchase big ticket items, spreading out costs over many months, they are now increasingly used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been taxed mercilessly by inflation. ”

Does anyone else find this revolting? Essentially our fellow citizens have decided that they have an entitlement to a certain lifestyle, regardless of income, and have decided to buy with interest that which they cannot afford in the first place. If one cannot afford the daily purchases in life (as opposed to a big ticket item that one might ordinarially pay off over some months) whay would one assume that they can afford it with the cost of financing added?

God help us, as we seem unable to help ourselves.
Rich In NNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:54 am

KL (16),

Sweet!
Shore Guy says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:01 am

That funky couch reminds me of a character (from the old TV series calle Homicide) named Emma Zool who had a bed made out of a coffin.
Rich In NNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:03 am

PGC,

This should keep your bride busy
http://www.Freecycle.org
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:11 am

17 months

Talk about putting your life on hold…

I see that as someone that deep down probably doesn’t want to sell either. My Aunt and Uncle did the same thing. They listed their house in Clark for $490,000. It’s been sitting for 15 months and they only dropped the price $40,000.
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:13 am

“I put in a lowball offer on a bank owned property (20% less than the list) in prestigious Bergen County. The bank rejected the offer outright”

yes, not all banks are run the same.
also, there is still alot of denial and the “it will pick up soon” attitude going on.

but, in my experience, OREO (other real estate owned), is the last thing a bank wants. At least a well runned and managed bank… A fly by night bank might take them.

Also, for all those home owners whom own houses and don’t think this bubble doesn’t really apply to them think again!!

If their is a foreclosure or OREO on your street, so too goes the value of your house, and hence your net worth. Still, it may not be a big deal to some, but yet an uncomfortable feeling, and if the situation gets bad enough, the wrong crowd starts to move into your town.

yup,
SAS
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:15 am

“Do you really think a POS that cost $400,000 is going to $200,000?”

To whomever[338],

Absolutely.

So are we saying that “appropriately” priced $400,000 properties will also be in the $200,000 range or are we talking about sellers trying for the pipe dream type houses?
Rich In NNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:15 am

Hillsdale
SLD 24 ROYAL PARK TER $769,000 6/24/2005

ACT 24 ROYAL PARK TER $839,900 8/13/2007
PCH 24 ROYAL PARK TER $799,000 10/8/2007
EXT 24 ROYAL PARK TER $799,000 10/8/2007
W-U 24 ROYAL PARK TER $799,000 10/18/2007
Relist
ACT 24 ROYAL PARK TER $799,900 10/19/2007
PCH 24 ROYAL PARK TER $779,900 12/31/2007
PCH 24 ROYAL PARK TER $719,000 2/15/2008
ACT* 24 ROYAL PARK TER $719,000 2/20/2008
U/C 24 ROYAL PARK TER $719,000 3/5/2008
SLD 24 ROYAL PARK TER $705,000 5/8/2008
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:16 am

hell…

I’m also debating if current renter should also stop paying rents to accumulate cash?

depending on ones situation, may not be a bad idea.

Alot of ways we can cut this cake ; )

SAS
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:18 am

Bonds Tied to Mortgages Have Hope

By LARRY LIGHT

Maybe there’s a way to thrive in the howling wasteland that is the home-loan market. Bonds backed by mortgages look like a buying opportunity, assuming a new spate of defaults doesn’t send their prices tumbling again.

Already, these mortgage-backed securities, or MBS, are showing signs that the market thinks the bad times may be ending. At their worst in mid-March, MBS yields were pumped up to 1.89 percentage points more than ultrasafe Treasurys, according to Merrill Lynch research. Lately, that spread has narrowed to 0.97 point. Historically, the gap is only around 0.3.

These days, MBS are almost entirely the realm of government-sponsored entities: Ginnie Mae, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These so-called agency MBS don’t hold subprime loans and can’t blow up. If the underlying loans do go bad, the issuers must subsidize them. Agency mortgage bond prices, too, got walloped in the credit crunch — unjustifiably. Ginnies, Fannies and Freddies are easy to buy through a broker. With yields slightly over 5%, investors get safety and a higher return than Treasurys.
gary says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:23 am

Shore Guy [97],

Why should the credit card situation surprise you or for that matter, anyone? Especially here, in prestigous Northern NJ where lawn service, lavish parties for 3 year olds and a new foreign car every 2 years is a must. Of course, the big two, Mercedes and BMW are really the most acceptable. Who are we kidding.

And don’t forget the address. Like that young couple at the open house who realized they were two houses away from Upper Montclair and mistakenly went to an open house in Little Falls. The woman was due to give birth at any moment and that realization was almost the clincher. Mr. and Mrs. Gary were not about to start boiling water and high-tailed it outta there in a f*cking hurry.

Hey, it’s very competitive here, so I’ve been told and if one can’t afford it here then one should think about a different town, or maybe a different state.

We all know it, appearances are everything and if that means Graydons’ mommy has to charge that party at La Petite Place Riche De Gosses then, so it is written, so it shall be.
SG says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:23 am

Nothing will stop real estate values from continuing their decline; they will continue to fall, from coast to coast, category to category, setting up an eventual “crash” when a global systemic event takes the entire market out at the knees. Just laugh in the face of those who say real estate is bottoming now or will bottom “later this year,” in 2009 or any other time in the next five years (at least). Certainly there won’t be a “bottom” until a meltdown of one sort or another comes to pass and until most conclude that buying real estate is a losing proposition. Anyone who says we’ve reached bottom in the meanwhile surely has something to sell you (probably real estate or stocks).

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO SUGGEST THAT THINGS ARE IMPROVING IN THIS ARENA; IN FACT, as lenders get more skittish, financing gets tougher to find by the day and more cash down is required, THINGS ARE GETTING MARKEDLY WORSE. REAL ESTATE VALUES ARE IN FULL DECLINE, AND THERE IS A LONG WAY TO GO. It’s the top of the second, not the bottom of the eighth.

Credit Suisse projects that by 2012, 12.7% of houses in the United States — roughly 6.5 million homes or ONE IN EIGHT — will have been foreclosed upon (I think it will eventually be worse than that). Regardless, that projection alone is enough to cause significant strain on the U.S. economy, and that strain will only lead to more asset deflation. Suffice to say post-bubble real estate deflation has a long way to go, my friends.

Property sales require a willing buyer, a motivated-enough seller and an agreeable lender and there aren’t now — nor will there be — enough of these folks to go around for possibly a generation. Buyers, in particular, will become ever-harder to come by.

When “the government” starts bulldozing entire tracts of houses — and they will at some point — in an attempt to do SOMETHING about chronic and persistent housing oversupply and blight, we’ll start talking about “the bottom.” Until then, there is no bottom.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4657.html
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:27 am

103 Joeycasz

Joeycasz Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 9:15 am
“Do you really think a POS that cost $400,000 is going to $200,000?”

To whomever[338],

Absolutely.

So are we saying that “appropriately” priced $400,000 properties will also be in the $200,000 range or are we talking about sellers trying for the pipe dream type houses?

The problem is that people had the pipedream over pricing their homes for twice what they’re worth. I really think sellers of lower end homes will have more trouble capitulating because they stand to lose 50% of asking prices.
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:29 am

“Got corn? Opec has the oil cartel, the fed has the banking cartel, it’s time for our farmers to set up the grain cartel”

One is already in place, they are called:

Cargill, Nestlé, The Kroger Co, Archer Daniels Midland, Bunge Limited, Safeway Inc., and WalMart.

Those companies really screw farmers, and have done alot of damage, in order to sell you food so Americans can feed their fat little faces.

SAS
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:31 am

““Do you really think a POS that cost $400,000 is going to $200,000?”

Two years ago, did you really think oil would be $125 a barrel?

SAS
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:38 am

lost (94)-

I spend entire days with the taste of bile at the back of my tongue.
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:39 am

112
Clot
When I think of some of the people you must deal with, I can understand why.
Hard Place says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:39 am

Hey PGC,

Are you freegans?
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:40 am

I’ve mentioned here before that i’m in the market to probably buy this summer. I know what we can afford and it’s in the range of $300-325,000. I’ve actually seen some pretty decent 3br 2ba houses in this range. I would prefer to not spend over $300,000 as with our down payment i think we would be VERY comfortable. Even though we don’t plan on going anywhere for at least 10+ years i would hate for the property to drop in half after i bought it.
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:42 am

Two years ago, did you really think oil would be $125 a barrel?

Of course not :) When i bought my Explorer ten years ago gas was .90 cents a gallon. I’ll be in the market for a new vehicle sometime after this summer. If end up moving further than 20 miles from work i’ll be forced to.
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:56 am

Sayerville has a nude juice bar.

Who knew?
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:58 am

96 grim

“17 months
Talk about putting your life on hold… ”

Time value of money be d*mned, these folks don’t even understand the money value of time.
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:10 am

“Bonds backed by mortgages look like a buying opportunity, assuming a new spate of defaults doesn’t send their prices tumbling again.”

These people are entering the realm of self parody.

“Heroin dealing looks like a good selling opportunity, assuming you don’t get shot in the head or sent to jail for life.”
gary says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:12 am

njpatient [119],

Inmates, asylum, need I say more?
Cindy says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:13 am

The builders in California have been trying lots of come-ons to rid themselves of our over supply here – 0 down loans, rent-to-own, lots of updrades but this one takes the cake…in the Bee today:

“Luxury and buyer protection at Gary McDonald Homes.”

“The media is telling home buyers that things are getting worse,” Gary McDonald says, “but we home builders are getting clear indications that the market is picking up.” We are certainly at or near the bottom of this real estate cycle, and prices and interest rates on a new Gary McDonald luxury home are the best they have been in 10 years.”

“We are so sure of it, that Gary McDonald Homes is making an unprecedented offer that will protect buyers should home values decline further.”

“This stunning offer is meant to give an extra assurance that Gary McDonald homes are not just the most superior value in the valley today, but homes that will hold their value.”

“For a limited time,” says Brian Hertel, Gary McDonald Homes sales manager, “we will guarantee $100,000 of price protection to a select number of existing homes in our exciting Copperline and Copper River Ranch neighborhoods. That means if you decide to sell your new home, and if the value has actually declined, Gary McDonald Homes will reimburse you up to $100,000 of the sales price. You should give us a call to discuss the details of this exciting offer.”
(Good for contracts intered into by June 30, 2008.)
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:18 am

SAS

I would say that the farming/food cartel leaders are Monsanto and ADM.
Monsanto is pretty much intent on patenting every crop gene they can and then trick/strong arm/finesse as many farmers and countries as possible to use there products since you will be forever beholden to them for your crops once you do use their tech.
If you are not familiar, then look at what has recently gone on in India with rice farmers and Monsanto. The end result is that the poor farmers are committing suicide at a staggering rate in order to escape the financial bear trap they stepped into by taking monsantos GM crop offering
Laurie says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:25 am

RE:PCG and #64..oh so that was YOU driving thru the hood last night..garbage just got picked up so that sweet Weber grill is now heading out to a land fill on SI…and the BMW’s car horn isn’t THAT loud,is it???

Cindy and all…How about a little love for the one other poster here who is a female…no one is impersonatin ME on this board and I wanna know WHY???
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:27 am

Laurie
Why would you think you’re the only other female here? There are quite a few of us actually.
Laurie says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:27 am

RE:Richinnnj…post #104..that’s a very nice section of Hillsdale..one of the only ones BTW and from certain houses in that section you can see NYC..nice views..
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:27 am

117 soosh

Sounds like a good place for a stiff drink
Cindy says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:30 am

(123) Laurie – Welcome! There are actually LOTS of females but you can’t tell by the handles…
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:31 am

Laurie

Lisoosh, lostinny, still looking and jill are gals, too.

I’m not sure about Pat, though.

And isn’t rhyming of the female gender?
Laurie says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:32 am

Lostinny
I stand corrected..I’m going by names and I guess that is wrong…plenty of females here?? Bring it on!!
Zack says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:39 am

I was at a party last night and was talking to a guy and housing came up as a topic. He feels this is a good time to buy because he thinks prices might come back up later this year.
What an absolute Moron and moreover he was a manager at some company. I didn’t bother arguing.
Cindy says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:49 am

Grim – I put something in from our local paper (Calif. R/E) about 30 mins. ago – still in moderation…did I use a bad word?
jmacdaddio says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:52 am

Random thought: what happened to Serenity Now? She seems to have disappeared. Serenity and Mr. Serenity were good people.
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:59 am

Zack (129)-

You should’ve asked that guy about his feelings on an imminent alien invasion.
njpatient says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:13 am

130 cindy

Multiple links is one trigger for moderation, as are certain random syllables (e.g. c*cktail will get you moderated if you don’t fudge it).

D*nald D*ck is also off limits (long story).
jmacdaddio says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:19 am

Last night we went to Eatery on 53rd and 9th – thanks Lincoln for the idea! They did an excellent job preparing old comfort food favorites. Their dessert was some of the best I’ve had in a long time.
PeaceNow says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:27 am

NPR’s “This American Life” is all about the mortgage meltdown. Very interesting, and available as a podcast. (It’s also on now, 11-12, on WNYC-AM.)

http://thislife.org/
Cindy says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:37 am

Patient (134) Well it was just about how a local builder is offering “buyer protection” with some selected new home sales. “For a limited time we will guarantee $100,000 of price protection to a select number of available homes in our existing neighborhoods. That means that if you decide to sell your new home, and if the price has actually declined, we will reimburse you up to $100,000 for the sales price.” High end – exclusive neighborhood near a golf course….

Also, many builders are trying anything…no money down, zero closing costs, Century Builders has a rent-to-own program, tons of free upgrades. They are trying to move that inventory…and competing with foreclosures for a limited number of buyers.
rhymingrealtor says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:06 pm

Girl

KL

Girly girl for that matter
Rich In NNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:17 pm

Uh oh

Glen Rock
ACT 57 TONAWANDA RD $699,900 10/18/2005
ACT* 57 TONAWANDA RD $699,900 10/27/2005
BOM 57 TONAWANDA RD $699,900 11/10/2005
U/C 57 TONAWANDA RD $699,900 11/10/2005
SLD 57 TONAWANDA RD $700,000 12/24/2005

2819338
ACT 57 TONAWANDA RD $699,900 5/9/2008
toshiro_mifune says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:20 pm

#135 – Thanks Peace. This American Life rocks, I usually wait `til Mon. for the podcasts.
Has anyone seen the tv show? I don’t have Showtime and haven’t seen any torrents for it.
Clotpoll says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:25 pm

Check out Jose Canseco’s foreclosing house:

http://tinyurl.com/638rq2
Rich In NNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:31 pm

Ridgewood
SLD 110 S MAPLE AVE $829,000 1/5/2006

ACT 110 S MAPLE AVE $1,100,000 9/18/2007
PCH 110 S MAPLE AVE $899,900 10/25/2007
EXP 110 S MAPLE AVE $899,900 3/14/2008
New broker and agent
ACT 110 S MAPLE AVE $869,000 3/14/2008
PCH 110 S MAPLE AVE $829,900 4/15/2008
PCH 110 S MAPLE AVE $779,900 5/7/2008

I know, it’s a busy street and it’s zoned professional office use as well.

Avaliable to rent for $2,500 as well. Down from $2,695 in 2006
serenity now says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:37 pm

Re 131 jmacdaddio
Mr & Mrs Serenity
are alive and well and lurking.
Just sold our home in a prestigious BC
town and are moving to an even haughtier
BC town.
serenity now says:

May 10, 2008 at 12:40 pm

Re131 jmacdaddio
BTW thanks for asking.
alia says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:06 pm

126: me! me! (dunno, my name is exotic-sounding enough it might not be obvious how many x chromosomes i have)…
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:12 pm

Patient – Hardy Har Har.

Laurie – Yup, lots. Including me.
Also Pat, rhyming, spam, lost, still, NJGator (also known as Mrs. Stu), Jill, Ann (disappeared for a while), alia, gryffindor (I believe), former NJGal, tcm.

As Pat once pointed out – houses/women of course there is an interest.
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:13 pm

OT but regarding how rising gas prices are going to effect people, i put together a little chart.

http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn235/sprocket616/Gasprices-1.jpg

people who make under 45K/yr (gross) will be in trouble by the time gas hits $8 and the 20% of the us population (per US census)that makes 25K is going to be in trouble when gas $4.50
DINJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:14 pm

Joeycacz #115
“I know what we can afford and it’s in the range of $300-325,000. I’ve actually seen some pretty decent 3br 2ba houses in this range.”

Where?
Orion says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:15 pm

Re: Asbury Park

IMHO, there ought to be a moratorium on new condo construction. There is a significant glut of condos on the market right now. Until there’s a sizeable decrease in inventory, the city should stop building.
Too much, too fast (my building is virtually empty).

Also, I wish the waterfront projects wouldn’t block the ocean view. Keep it low near the ocean blocks and grow taller going west. A gradual increase would allow for ocean views for westward buildings.

The Esperanza monstrocity should die forever.
It reeks of short-sightedness and greed.
Keep it small, low, luxurious and pricey.
Dare to be different.

Someone posted on this blog that the city is going bankrupt. Details please.

BTW, a larger Confetti’s ice cream is re-opening next to Salt Water Cafe. So glad they didn’t get priced out!
Secondary Market says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:17 pm

This should offer up a nice chuckle.

I was walking the pooch the other day and came across this Tim Burton style “home” (structure) http://tiny.cc/oMx6Z
The entire back wall has crumbled and left the “home” completely exposed. Inside was an empty area, exposed brick and a gaping hole in the floor down to the basement/foundation. There was no formal lay out that would indicate 3 beds or 2 baths.

I just checked out the Philly tax site and discovered the “home” was bought in 2001 for 75K! Even giving 5% yoy return the value would just break 100K. These folks have a serious set of balls or just think we’re all stupid. I should take a trip to the Realtors office and rip up their license.
Secondary Market says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:19 pm

Make that 72k!
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:21 pm

to elaborate on my chart,

using 2002 us census data 20% of american families made 25,000 / yr 20% made 100,000 / yr and the median income was 47,000. for my chart i rounded the median to 45,000.

The point is start looking for serious economic effects once gas hits and stays around $4.50/gal. yes there are already effects but when your gas costs are 20% of your gross income you start having to make some very tough decisions? how do you get to work? no work no money no food!
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:28 pm

Joeycacz #115
“I know what we can afford and it’s in the range of $300-325,000. I’ve actually seen some pretty decent 3br 2ba houses in this range.”

Where?

Union county has it’s share in places such as Scotch Plains, Clark, Cranford, Roselle Park, Kenilworth, UNION, hell i’ve even found a house In Westfield. I’ve also found some in Essex county as well such as Bloomfield, West Orange, Belleville, Nutley. Middlesex county is very good too. My biggest problem in some of these areas are the taxes are KILLER even on $300,000 houses!

I’m in the market for a decent 3br 2ba house. By no means will it be perfect and will probably be a fixer for the most part. I’ve got no problem fixing a place up because of the fact that i will be doing most if not all of the work myself.
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:31 pm

to make a poorly supported prediction….

I expect to see serious social disruption once we hit sustained gas prices of $8 and up. There are ways to mitigate the price impacts but our economy is already to weak and both the nation and the people to deep in debt to absorb this impact. The question is does the government step in and start to ration gas for certain groups before disruption occurs or after. Given the current rate of gas price increase and assuming it continues we could be looking at $8 gas in approx 3 years
Joeycasz says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:35 pm

I heard on the news (sorry no link) that unless something is done we’ll see $200 a barrel in less than two years. That’s messed up.
RentinginNJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 1:54 pm

New Jerseyans may soon pay as much as 20 cents extra when buying beverages in bottles and cans as part of an effort to boost recycling and combat litter.
The Assembly environment committee is slated Monday to discuss a 10-cent deposit for bottles and cans less than 24 ounces and 20 cents for larger ones up to 3 liters.
Consumers would get the money back by returning the containers to newly created redemption centers or to retailers

Great. Just what NJ needs right now; another tax disguised as a program to help the environment plus another layer of bureaucracy to administer this boondoggle.

Besides…Now what am I supposed to take to the discount window when I need money from the Fed?
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 2:08 pm

renting,

i hear that the FED is now accepting used (SUV)s at about 200% of market value
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 2:27 pm

I guess I haven’t paid attention to the price of oil. 2 weeks ago I paid 3.31 a gallon. Today I paid 3.47. How do people afford to fill up SUV’s? I am amazed!
bairen says:

May 10, 2008 at 2:33 pm

#157 lostinny

It’s easy. through our high incomes and all the money we make selling houses to each other.

/sarcasm

I’m guessing credit cards
gary says:

May 10, 2008 at 2:35 pm

lostinny [157],

We live in prestigous Northern NJ, it’s insulated here. This area just bleeds money. That’s what a realtor told me so it must be true.
Anon says:

May 10, 2008 at 2:56 pm

#148,

Orion, you’re right, there’s a lot of condo inventory in Asbury right now and development has definitely suffered as a result. Developers have gotten greedy and priced themselves out of the market. Let’s face it, while Asbury has a nice little downtown on Cookman it’s only a 3-4 block stretch of street and it certainly doesn’t justify selling one bedroom lofts for $450K+. It’s a case of unfortunate timing for the redevelopers with the market doing poorly and sales declining. It’s likely to take about 10-15 years for the redevelopment to even near completion. A moratorium is not needed, builders simply won’t build on their own until the market improves.

Also, from a planning, marketing, and design perspective it doesn’t make sense to build lowrise on the ocean and highrise westward. The majority of existing housing around the redevelopment area is single family homes and 2-3 story condos/apartments. You can’t build a 10-15 story tower right next to a single family home. The City would never allow it and you would have some strong opposition from surrounding property owners. A building that size could possibly block natural sunlight on surround properties for the entire day and there are zoning regulations for highrise development with regard to “shadowing”. You need to have the new construction integrate into the existing community. As with any oceanfront town the beach is Asbury’s biggest asset. Can you think of any oceanfront town where density is not concentrated on the oceanfront blocks?
Punch My Ticket says:

May 10, 2008 at 3:16 pm

New mortgage insurance restrictions at MGIC.

http://www.mgic.com/pdfs/MGIC_Bulletin_May_02_2008_Final.pdf

Plus all of NJ is now restricted.
Problem in PA says:

May 10, 2008 at 3:27 pm

Q: Have been talking to a realtor i think we’ll end up using to buy next Feb/March. Met in person, and we email at least once a week (in addition to him spamming me listings).

This week, i emailed a request: Could he possibly compiled a list of SALES each month from 3 towns in Bucks County, and email the results to me.

He didn’t respond in three days (highly unusual). Thinking something was up – hey, maybe he didn’t get the email – i copy and pasted the info in another email to him, and have not heard back. It’s been a week now.

Was this request out of bounds?

Basically, here’s my thought: If houses in the area we want to buy are selling, we can use those as comps for houses that are already on the market. That’s reasonable, right?
Problem in PA says:

May 10, 2008 at 3:28 pm

whoops, the email exchange started LAST week.

And that last paragraph was hastily written, but essentially, we want to use comps to see if sellers in the area are out of their mind or not.
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 3:59 pm

“Monsanto”

that right. I forgot about those guys. Slipped my mind. Add them to the farming cartel list.

Monsanto is a jackass company, along with Cargill.

If some of you wonder why you look like the Cambell soup kid when you look in the mirror, you can thank these guys.

SAS
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 4:05 pm

kettle1,

Interesting graphs. But the question in my mind now is, at what intersect does the prices of gas/fossil fuel equal the price of solar energy, and then would we not become a solar economy?

thoughts?

SAS
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 4:12 pm

“How do people afford to fill up SUV’s? I am amazed!”

They are taken it away from discretionary money. So, they now have less money to spend on the general economy.

But you know, as much as Americans complain about price of gas. I would bet many if not all haven’t change their habits.

Do they take mass transit?
DO they carpool?
Do they walk their fat butcheeks to somewhere?

I would guess not.

Also, if people are having to add a little more money for gas and it is hurting then… their financial house proabley was already in bad shape & using gas prices as an excuse.

Get your finances in order, get out of debt, think of ways you can conserve on fuel, and most of all… put down the damn chocolate cake! you don’t need it anyways.

Yee
SAS
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 4:39 pm

Ron Paul really tells it like it is…

listein carefully to his words in this few minute vid. Might shed some light for some.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=254789066215671796&q=&hl=en

SAS
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 5:32 pm

SAS

the short answer is that solar is already cost competitive. the barrier to transition is that our current infrastructure cannot easily integrate solar as a primary source. Try telling the power industry you are forcing them to spend billions/trillions to change over infrastructure….

doable, but not easily and not without lifestyle changes
jamil says:

May 10, 2008 at 5:36 pm

What do think about the future of living in Manhattan?

I rent in Manhattan and would want to buy here, but I’m really afraid of the future of the city. Here is what I afraid:
1. Next mayor (2009) is a far-left dem, some Al Sharpton protégée
2. Governer is already a corrupt tax-raise far-left dem
3. Dems win one more seat in State Senate and then gets absolute power in NY/NYC

=> “Guliani cops” get out of street from day (this was actually a real campaign promise from Ferrer in 2001)

– crime rates, corruption, income taxes and property taxes go to pre-Guliani levels

– public housing projects will be built everywhere (in the most expensive blocks on the planet – courtesy of NYC taxpayers)

– (semi)recession hits Manhattan with the layoffs in Wall Street (already happening)

This is going to be dangerous city, hostile to business and middle class (see Detroit, NO, Pittsburgh – more shootings in a weekend than in Baghdad).
Say what you say about republicans in Washington, but NYC region would be absolute sh*ithole without Guliani/Pataki/Bloomberg.

I think renting is a much safer solution in NYC (and actually, financially better solution now).
Bru says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:02 pm

(Yes, I’m back – sorry, Clotpoll. I promise there will be no stupidity in the following post. From me, anyway.)

For months, I’ve been curious about the development being built near the Secaucus rail station (do we really need more condos?).

Well, it turns out to be rentals, and the billboards on the Turnpike are boasting that the apartments are going for under $2,000 a month as though it were a steal!

My sister has a small studio in midtown Manhattan and pays less – even if this place (the Xchange) offers a lot more space, I can’t see how renting there could possibly be a good idea. Really, if you can afford $2,000 a month (or more!), couldn’t you get a decent mortgage, even in Jersey? Or rent somewhere that’s NOT in an industrial zone (like, Manhattan)?

I understand the selling point is the one-stop ride into Penn Station (Manhattan or Newark), but $2,000 a month sounds grossly inflated to live somewhere that doesn’t have a watering hole and grocery within walking distance. And the train certainly doesn’t stop right outside like those Disney World hotels on the monorail.

Yes, New Jersey is the strangest place on earth.

The Web site is at http://www.xchangenj.com, if anyone with more knowledge of these things can explain why these apartments are so expensive.
Nom Deplume says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:11 pm

Problem in PA,

Find another realtor. With apologies to Grim, et al. (the rare breed), I trust realtors to be helpful about as much as I trust NJ politicians with tax money. What you asked is not out of line, and I routinely ask for market information of that sort. It is the only reason I use a buyer’s agent.

Fact is, the only way that they will learn is when they lose business. When you go with someone else, and he asks why, tell him. It isn’t an insult–you are doing him a courtesy.
Nom Deplume says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:20 pm

Agent needed for Brigadoon:

If anyone has worked with an agent in Westfield that has the forthrightness and work ethic of Grim, I would be interested in getting their name.

Today, my realtor took me to see some houses. Already, I know he is a total yes man–agrees with me even when I contradict him and myself.

Saw a house in pre-foreclosure and the garage was gone. Nothing but a pad and some cinderblock foundation. My realtor told me that the owner took it down because it was a real eyesore, in terrible condition, and was hurting his attempts to sell the house. Further, he said that I absolutely could rebuild the garage if I bought the house.

The neighbor overheard this and told the spouse that our realtor was full of zhit. After our guy left, neighbor told us that when the owner remodeled, he pushed out the house by three feet. This violated his coverage ratio. Now he needed a variance and Brigadoon would not give him one, so he was forced to rip down the garage in order to comply with the zoning (neighbor testified for the owner at the BoA hearing and had all the details). Neighbor says that all the realtors know this, and he had to come over and tell us when he heard our guy make a flat-out misrepresentation.

And yes, this is the same realtor who said nothing about the vermiculite last week.

I know the spouse likes him, but I want him gone as I absolutely cannot trust anything he tells me, no matter how trivial. We still want to use the services of an agent but need one where I won’t have to check every statement to see if he/she is telling the truth. Email any referrals to nom_deplume@justice.com and thanks.
kettle1 says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:34 pm

172 NOM

do not walk, RUN in the opposite direction of your current RE agent.

Grim may be bale to work with you,i think he mentioned he can cover that area, but i am not sure, e-mail him and ask.
bairen says:

May 10, 2008 at 6:51 pm

#172 Nom,

Get a new agent.

I had a relative who kept the same agent for over a year to sell their house because the agent was good with the cats. Good with the cats, lousy at marketing the house.
Confused In NJ says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:07 pm

153.kettle1 Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
to make a poorly supported prediction….

I expect to see serious social disruption once we hit sustained gas prices of $8 and up. There are ways to mitigate the price impacts but our economy is already to weak and both the nation and the people to deep in debt to absorb this impact. The question is does the government step in and start to ration gas for certain groups before disruption occurs or after. Given the current rate of gas price increase and assuming it continues we could be looking at $8 gas in approx 3 years

The precedence is WWII, where people had Food & Fuel Ration Coupons. Of course there will always be an Alternative Black Market, for those with sufficient funds. Technology could get around that for most vehicles by requiring failsafe mechanisms on the vehicle tied to the Atomic Clock. If vehicle runs beyond it’s allocation in a specified timeframe, it would self destruct.
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:38 pm

169 Jamil
I fail to see how having a Democratic mayor would cause all of that. Even if it was so, why would you live in a place- rent or buy- that you paint as a place you wouldn’t want to be.
Out of curiosity, how long have you lived in Manhattan or anywhere else in NYC?
Orion says:

May 10, 2008 at 7:53 pm

#160 – Anon,

I understand the land near ocean is extremely valuable, however, if you look from Belmar to Ocean Grove, there’s nothing higher than a 5-6 story structure on the oceanfront.

My beef is with obnoxious megastructures. Asbury does not need one to identify itself.
As for landmark buildings, there’s the Berkeley Hotel and Paramount Theatre. And, of course, the new North Beach (with phase II in planning).

I’m hoping (never happen) that new construction be limited to 5 stories throughout the city (with shadowing in mind).
Shore Guy says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:25 pm

# 107 “We all know it, appearances are everything and if that means Graydons’ mommy has to charge that party at La Petite Place Riche De Gosses then, so it is written, so it shall be.”

So it seems. I guess I just don’t get the mindset. As I have stated many times before, Mrs. Shore and I are not rich, but we are in the upper 1% in our very nice town, but we live in a house that is about median assessed value. We are in the upper reaches of national statistics for earnings, but do not live like it.

I just do not understand the attempts to project wealth, whenit has to be borowed.
lostinny says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:29 pm

179 Shore

I just do not understand the attempts to project wealth, whenit has to be borowed.

Inferiority complex?
Essex says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:45 pm

Nothing wrong with buying on credit. As long as you pay the tab.
Shore Guy says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:52 pm

# 181 I agree. That said, even if one can afford to finance a given purchase, there are some purchases that it is not prudent to make on credit.

Borrowing in an attempt to project an image in the neighborhood or on the highway may not be wise, borrowing to buy a great suit for a business pitch may be. I do not believe that all debt is bad; however, undue reliance on debt financing has lead to numerous downfalls.
Shore Guy says:

May 10, 2008 at 8:52 pm

# 181 I agree. That said, even if one can afford to finance a given purchase, there are some purchases that it is not prudent to make on credit.

Borrowing in an attempt to project an image in the neighborhood or on the highway may not be wise, borrowing to buy a great suit for a business pitch may be. I do not believe that all debt is bad; however, undue reliance on debt financing has lead to numerous downfalls.
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:05 pm

I think I saw Graydon’s house for rent today on 202S a few miles from Clot’s office. Clot, do you know what they’re asking?

~ ~ ~

Problem in PA, you can also compile your own list of SALES each month from 3 towns in Bucks County, and email them back to the agent. Issue is 3 month lag. Search dogpile for “Bucks County Real Estate Transactions 3/28/2008” or whatever Sunday you want. Or go to philly.com in the real estate section to search recent sales.

Just be careful with zillow. For example, if you put your own current address in Newtown there, then click on all comps, you will not see some of the best comps, I find.

You might try a new agent. I was impressed with one, and she was a straight shooter. If we do buy in Bucks, we’ll use her. If you want, I’ll e-mail her info to Grim.
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:07 pm

Does anybody have any comments on the two listings I posted at 7:36, relative to pricing and value?
jamil says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:20 pm

177: 4 years in manhattan, including 1 year in 2001, plus 1 year elsewhere in the us. The idea is that if I rent, I can escape easily, if and when Dinkins era returns. Dem mayor would implement policies that have destroyed inner cities everywhere in the us. Ferrer openly threatened to get rid of guliani cops. See results in any city, eg DC, Chicago (where police is now armed more heavily than ur forbes in fallujah)
jamil says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:31 pm

sorry about typos, my cellphone is messing up. Anyway, I think nyc is now the best place to live. If dinkins/sharpton era returns, I’m off to london or tx. They can keep the sky high murder/tax/corruption rates. Nyc would be just like any other dem-controlled failed city and nj would also suffer.
still_looking says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:40 pm

168 SAS

Ron Paul tells it like it is for sure.
He forgot to add FOOD to the list of things whose cost is stampeding ahead (in addition to housing, energy etc that he mentioned.)

Why do I feel like the rest of the US is so completely out of touch with the disaster we are headed for?

Is the PPT that strong, durable and adaptable??

sl
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:40 pm

#185 Pat –

Hard to comment if you don’t know the area. The nice house might be in a poorer neighbourhood, or on a busier street. Or the realtor for one of the homes might be a moron, or the bank that owns the second house might be hoping for a certain percentage of the loan.

Pricing is all over the map from what I’ve seen. Absolutely no rhyme or reason.
Frank says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:42 pm

“What do think about the future of living in Manhattan?”

There a plenty of cities run by Democrats that are doing very well, look at San Francisco. So don’t tell me Republicans are the only one with a brain. Both Guliani and Bloomberg were Democrats before they switched to Republicans to get elected. It’s all about money. Wall St. had a great run in the last 20 years, that all it matter.
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:44 pm

jamil – Bloomberg IS a democrat in everything but party affiliation. He was a lifelong Democrat who switched to Republican in order not to have to run the party gauntlet and to have a clear shot at the nomination
Guliani wasn’t God and NYC’s turnaround had to do with a lot of other factors.
lisoosh says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:46 pm

grim 192 in moderation
Frank says:

May 10, 2008 at 9:59 pm

THE only way to know when the residential real estate market has “hit bottom” will be with a look in the rear-view mirror, according to Jeffrey G. Otteau, the New Jersey-based real estate analyst.

SIZABLE INVENTORY For-sale signs abound; this one is in North Plainfield. Statewide, the housing market had a 10.5-month supply of homes for sale in March. That is down from an 11-month supply in February.

“It will appear from the shadows, months after it actually occurred,” when sales have picked up for several consecutive months, said Mr. Otteau, whose East Brunswick company, the Otteau Valuation Group, studies sales-contract data that it compiles from almost all of the state and provides monthly to subscribing brokers.

But the latest statewide numbers — from March — do make one thing absolutely clear: The turning point has not yet been reached.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/realestate/11njzo.html?ref=realestate
sas says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:08 pm

jamil,

Ghouliani rode the piggyback of

A) the turn of a manufactoring to finance/debt economy, which made NYC grow well, but not good for the other areas of USA
B) Major crime reduction when all those coke/heroin heads all eventually died of Aids, typical virus infection patterns.

What I see for NYC, a major economical slowdown, which will in turn slow revenue growth for the Citys governmental machine.
Its already starting. i.e water rate hikes, rate hikes that will goto fund other governmental programs, ConEd increase, Toll increases.

There is coming a time if you fart too lound in NYC they will give you a $100 ticket.

Best to rent, as this town will face major debts that will ultimatley come out of your tail.

Rent, save money, enjoy a little NYC nightlife & culture. Then, when you start getting a little burned out or the town really starts going to hell.

you bail and move away. You wouldn’t have lost anything.

In my opinions,
SAS
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:51 pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/business/11storage.html?hp

That one’s for Mrs. PGC.
PGC says:

May 10, 2008 at 10:57 pm

#67 Clot.
I know there is software. I am thiking that a human can make a better assessment at the default potential than a progam. It would be similar to someone on this board valuing a property vs the value placed on it by Zillow.
PGC says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:06 pm

#100
freecycle will be blocked at the firewall. We are not freegans, just frugal and sensible. We both grew up with a knowledge of what things cost and what we could afford.

I was in Short Hills today and can report.

Jimmy Choo – Empty
Apple – Packed
Saks – empty
Nordstrom – fair.
Williams Sonoma – Busy
Gucci – Busy
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:06 pm

PGC, if you read that article, what you’re talking about is like that bunch of people standing in front of the storage unit, but not allowed to go in.

They bid on instinct, says the article.

But that’s not true. They bid based on a mental rules hierarchy. Always.

Which means it can be programmed.
PGC says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:14 pm

#196 Pat
I used to live in downtown Jersey City beside the Holand Tunnel. There were a lot of storage places in the area. They would take the good stuff for themselves and then give the rest to the homeless people living under the covered roadway. Everytime the city cleared the homeless out it would only take a few weeks to restock funiture and mattresses from the storage units and the curbside pickup.
Pat says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:24 pm

http://www.smartmoney.com/ahead-of-the-curve/index.cfm?story=20080509-donald-luskin-on-the-housing-market&pgnum=1

Columnist Defends View on Housing Market
RayC says:

May 10, 2008 at 11:33 pm

Nom,

I think I know the house you looked at (#810?). FYI it was listed at $898 a few months ago.
gryffindor says:

May 11, 2008 at 12:00 am

Girl here for sure!

PGC, that’s a nice little kitchen for your kids. I’m so conditioned by HGN and the RE media, when I glanced over the title I saw “Granite Counter” and had to do a doulbe take to realize it said “Green Counter.”

Also thanks to John for posting that walk score website recently. My little preppy corner of Nashville got a 91. I was such a lazy bum for the past 1.5 years living here – I would regularly accelerate over the sidewalks and drive 0.3 mi to the post office and 0.5 mi to the supermarket. Now with gas out of control, I parked the civic and bought a pedometer and have been walking everywhere. As a bonus I’ve lost a whole bunch of weight. I was looking for something exactly like that to figure out the walkability of NJ towns as I try to decide where in the tri-state I should move next year. I don’t want to go back to living in a trapped subdivision.
Stan says:

May 11, 2008 at 8:34 am

Jamil, I moved to NYC at the end of the Dinkins administration. Manhattan was not so bad then. It was certainly much better than it’s reputation in other parts of the country. The upswing started before Guiliani came in.
NYC real estate will be in big trouble if crime is ever allowed to go back up to 70s/80s levels and people are afraid to take the subway. That would squash values in Brooklyn, Queens, Harlem, etc.
Shore Guy says:

May 11, 2008 at 9:08 am

# 149 Orion,

Are you in either North Beach or Wesley Grove perchance?
Laurie says:

May 11, 2008 at 9:32 am

Good morning all…male and female!
Ron Paul…..love him! His fiscal policys were so right on but his electability was …well not so good.
jamil says:

May 11, 2008 at 11:32 am

192 lisoosh: the anti-semite left-wing mayor of London was thrown out of office and the new conservative mayor promised to cut spending, lower taxes and make city safe again. Sounds like Guliani (and exactly the opposite of what dems are promising if they get the absolute power in NYC).

The list of corrupt Dem leaders in NY is long: Dinkins, Sharpton, Ferrer, Spitzer, Patterson, Quinn, Hevesi. The fact is that if dems get the power, they raise taxes, cut down police (and its crime fighting policies) and harass businesses and middle-class out of the city. But at least NYC would have driver’s licenses for illegals and gay marriage.

About other cities controlled by dems: SF has great views, weather and beautiful architecture (and silicon valley nearby). Even SF dems could not destroy that.
lisoosh says:

May 11, 2008 at 1:13 pm

Jamil – I know London well. It took over 20 YEARS to get rid of Ken Livingston – he was the head BEFORE there was a Mayorship (there were title changes). Every council or community group in London is the same. Can’t get a crack in the sidewalk fixed without passing 15 resolutions supporting Tibet and the formation of a committee to look into making a declaration about Gay rights.
Yes, they finally got rid of Ken, but it is part and parcel of the backlash against New Labour.

Read some of the posts above, from seasoned New Yorkers about Repub/Dem issues and claims. You’re propagandizing at a low level to a much better educated crowd than I assume you are used to dealing with.
Bru says:

May 11, 2008 at 1:15 pm

Um, middle class people are living in NYC today? (shuffles feet)

Also, San Francisco has a very visible problem with homelessness, and it’s lazy to assign the blame to the Democrats.

NYC will never return to its sleazy days, as long as colleges churn out starry-eyed young women fed a diet of “Sex and the City” and dumb romantic comedies – and who can get their parents to pay their living expenses for them until they can find an i-Banker.

Getting back to those “luxury rentals” near the Secaucus station … I just talked to my sister; her midtown apartment is actually $2400 a month.

A few weeks ago, the Herald News ran a story disputing Passaic’s ranking as one of the most expensive “suburbs.” It mentioned the Orthodox Jewish community who moved in from the city; while their Passaic homes may be overpriced, the fact they came in from NYC meant that their idea of a bargain was skewed – especially since the neighborhoods they’ve called home have been overtaken by trustifarians.

It’s something we all know, of course.

So, I suppose the Xchange managers figured the $1900 a month to rent in an industrial zone would be seen as a bargain by those who may be paying $2400 a month in the city.

Still, I doubt many New Yorkers will take the bait. Most of the people living in Manhattan believe it’s better to live in a shoebox in the middle of everything than it is to have a lot of space in the middle of nowhere.
Sybarite says:

May 11, 2008 at 2:35 pm

Happy mother’s day to all you moms out there!
jamil says:

May 11, 2008 at 3:48 pm

> Um, middle class people are living in NYC today?

I consider pretty much all professionals, such as lawyers/doctors/MBAs being middle-class (except some rich I-bankers etc). Say, less than $250k/year. They are the people who have been buying and renting in NYC all those luxury condos and rentals (among rich foreigners and trust fund kids). Once the era of Dinkins/Sharpton returns, they will leave the city in droves, and the prices will drop further.

I lived briefly in Boston, next to John Kerry’s house when he was running for pres. The block was safe then, but only because armed secret service agents had surrounded the block. After he lost and security barriers were removed, things got back to normal. Rapes and armed robberies in the evening were considered “normal” in this liberal city. No need for police action. Once an intruder raped a girl living in the next building during a night, it was enough for mrs jamil. NYC is a great place and I really appreciate all those Guliani cops. So, when I hear the dem nominee proudly promising to get rid of Guliani cops, I’m ready to pack and get the hell out of here. Anyway, this will be great city at least a year.
lostinny says:

May 11, 2008 at 4:17 pm

211 Jamil
It is also Bloomberg- the mayor you think is one of those helping to save the city, that cut down starting NYC police beginning salaries to 25K.
jamil says:

May 11, 2008 at 5:15 pm

Supply/Demand. If crime rates can be held down, no need to raise salaries. This is how real world works (Of course, NJ is different).

Besides, NYPD salaries are difficult to compare as they have great benefits (massive raise after 7 years, early retirement with good pension and healthcare etc).

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