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Wowo first
So where is the GTG I am on day shift now and can come out after work. I really want to meed Grim and ChiFi.
Question though: Is it a “right” for working class families to be able to afford SFH’s? My sister and husband ( bank teller and emt ) feel that they need to have a house to have kids on LI.
What was the traditional breakdown of income/education level by housing type and location?
Saturday June 14th, 5 pm, at the Brass Rail in Hoboken.
Sweet I have had either exams or work at the same time as the last 2. Can I pick up Duck on my way down from Fort Lee?
From the Record:
New foreclosures hit record in N.J.; delinquencies rise
The rate of new foreclosures in New Jersey reached a record in the first quarter of 2008, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.
New foreclosures rose to 0.77 percent in the Garden State, and almost 5 percent of New Jersey homeowners were late with their mortgage payments during the first quarter of this year.
…
In addition, the percent of loans in foreclosure hit a record in the quarter.
From the Courier Post:
Rise in foreclosures stifles economy
The foreclosure hammer is hitting ever harder. People lost their homes at the highest rate on record in the first three months of the year, and late payments soared to a new high, too — an alarming sign that the housing crisis and its damage to the national economy may only worsen.
Dumping more empty homes on an already glutted market also is likely to put a further drag on home prices — extending a vicious cycle.
Someone’s got to come out with a motorcycle called the “Vicious”
From BusinessWeek:
The Next Real Estate Crisis
The American homeowner must feel like one of those characters in an old cartoon who has just been hit by a falling piano. After dusting himself off and touching the large bump on his head, he probably doesn’t expect another piano to be dangling overhead. But he’d be wrong.
But what’s often funny in a cartoon is anything but in real life. With the subprime mortgage crisis already crippling the U.S. economy, some experts are warning that the next wave of foreclosures will begin accelerating in April, 2009. What that means is that hundreds of thousands of borrowers who took out so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) will begin to see their monthly payments skyrocket as they reset. About a million borrowers have option ARMs, but only a fraction have already fallen due.
That was the catch to option ARMs; borrowers were offered low initial payments that would recast higher after several years. Many home buyers thought they could resell their homes before their payments increased. But instead, many of them got trapped. According to Credit Suisse (CS), monthly option recasts are expected to accelerate starting in April, 2009, from $5 billion to a peak of about $10 billion in January, 2010. Some of these loans have already started to recast. About 13% of option ARMs that were issued in 2006 were delinquent by 60 days by the time they were 18 months old, Credit Suisse said.
…
But California won’t be alone. Homeowners are also frighteningly vulnerable in states such as Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, and others.
(emphasis added)
Remember when we talked about the real estate industry playing the normal seasonal rise in sales as a sign of the recovery? Well here it is:
Housing report hints of hope
Could the tide finally be turning?
Two new snapshots of the New Jersey housing market seem to suggest the worst of the decline may be over.
A report by East Brunswick-based research firm Otteau Valuation Group shows April home sales increased from the March level — the first time that has happened since 2005 — in what may be a sign market has bottomed out.
At the same time, a report released by the Mortgage Bankers Association yesterday showed although home foreclosures and late payments continued to set records across the country during the first three months of the year, fewer New Jerseyans were falling behind on their mortgages and losing their homes.
“It will be a couple of more months before we can say for sure if the housing correction has ended and the market is in recovery mode, but there are a growing number of indicators which suggest the housing market is no longer worsening,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group.
In April, New Jersey sales contract activity grew for the fourth consecutive month, and recorded a 9.3 percent jump above the March level, Otteau said. By comparison, sales activity declined from March to April in both 2006 and 2007, he said.
Another positive development: The pile of unsold homes for sale is not rising as fast as it once was.
From March to April, inventory of unsold homes increased 4.5 percent, which Otteau said is less than normal for the month of April. Year over year, the inventory of unsold homes inched up 1.8 percent, from 69,888 homes to 71,193 homes for sale.
In June 2005, that figure stood at only 39,000 homes.
A key indicator of market strength is something called the Unsold Inventory Index, which measures how many months it would take to sell the existing inventory of active listings at the present sales pace. It now stands at it’s lowest level of the year, reflecting a 10 month supply, Otteau said.
By comparison, the index stood at 12.7 months in January, 11.0 in February and 10.5 in March. Historically, a 5.5-month supply of unsold inventory has been considered a “stable” market.
“But California won’t be alone. Homeowners are also frighteningly vulnerable in states such as Arizona, Florida, New Jersey, and others.”
Typo.
“Remember when we talked about the real estate industry playing the normal seasonal rise in sales as a sign of the recovery?”
I, for one, cannot BELIEVE that Jeffrey Otteau would engage in such fluffery!
You can bet Jeff Otteau will be pointing at the normal seasonal decline in Inventory at the end of the year as a sign of the bottom as well.
Decline? Who needs a DECLINE to get that optimistic feeling??
“Another positive development: The pile of unsold homes for sale is not rising as fast as it once was.”
njpatient,
Do you ever sleep?
“Do you ever sleep?”
Of course! What do you think I’ve been doing for the past three hours?
#15 njp
My mistake.
bair,
Just read comment #71 from yesterday, sorry to hear about that.
Can someone post the employment data at 8:30? I’m boarding a plane heading to San Antonio in a few minutes.
#17 Thanks grim.
Hopefully I can find something else before we’re out.
Talkin’ ’bout? Oh, my own fun and informal tracking on releases. I’m the ADHD-OCD type of searcher.
Unfortunately, I can only guess the amounts, based on final public filings.
I liked the part of the following article from the WSJ that says “Many of the more-affluent borrowers coming for help previously worked in the mortgage or real-estate industries, he says.”
Housing Pain Hits Prime Borrowers
Foreclosures Increase
As Troubles Worsen
Outside of Subprime
By RUTH SIMON
June 6, 2008
Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures continued to surpass record levels in the first quarter, as the prolonged decline in home prices and shifting economic conditions trapped a growing number of prime borrowers.
Delinquencies and foreclosures increased at the fastest pace for borrowers with prime adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, though borrowers with subprime ARMs still account for the largest share of troubled loans. The number of new prime ARM foreclosures increased by 29,000 to 117,000 in the first quarter, while the number of new subprime ARM foreclosures increased by 20,000 to 195,000. This is the first time prime foreclosures have grown faster than subprime foreclosures, the MBA said.
The increase in delinquencies has been highest in states where there has been a lot of overbuilding, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA’s vice president for research and economics. New subdivisions in those states have seen the biggest price drops, he said, as builders have cut prices to reduce inventories. That has made it more difficult for borrowers in the same or nearby subdivisions to sell or refinance if they get into trouble. About 10% of the homes built after 2000 are now vacant, according to the Census Bureau, compared with roughly 2% of homes built earlier.
Nationwide, roughly 1.3 million homes were in foreclosure at the end of the first quarter, according to the MBA. The foreclosure rate increased by 0.43 percentage point in the first quarter to 2.47% on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the number of loans that were at least 30 days past due climbed by 0.53 percentage point to 6.35%.
The increases “are clearly being driven by certain loan types and certain states,” said Mr. Brinkmann. Four states — California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona — accounted for 89% of the increase in foreclosures, he said.
The number of new foreclosures dropped slightly in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, where delinquencies have been driven by a weak economy, though overall delinquency rates in those states remain high. The slowdown in foreclosures there may reflect increased efforts by mortgage companies to work with troubled borrowers, Mr. Brinkmann said.
Still, the rise in past-due loans was widespread, with delinquencies up year over year in every state except Louisiana. Thirty-nine percent of subprime ARMs and more than 10% of prime adjustables are at least one payment past due. Option ARMs, which carry a low introductory rate but can lead to a rising loan balance, account for much of the rise in delinquent prime ARMs, Mr. Brinkmann said.
The data provide little evidence things will improve soon. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, notes credit-bureau data from April show delinquencies have become “measurably worse” in the second quarter. “The problem now is negative equity combined with a weakening job market,” he said, rather than resetting adjustable-rate mortgages.
Falling home prices have exacerbated the problems in the mortgage market by making it more difficult for borrowers who run into trouble to refinance or sell their homes. “The only alternative for them is foreclosure,” says Paul Willen, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “That accounts for a lot of what we are seeing.”
As the downturn in the housing market deepens, more borrowers who had higher incomes and good credit are getting swept up by the undertow. “Usually these people have things they can draw on that let them hang on longer,” such as savings and 401(k) accounts, says Gabe del Rio, vice president of lending and homeownership for Community HousingWorks in San Diego, which provides foreclosure counseling. Many of the more-affluent borrowers coming for help previously worked in the mortgage or real-estate industries, he says.
Falling home prices are also making it more difficult for borrowers to tap their equity to pay bills. At LSS Financial Counseling Service, based in Duluth, Minn., the average borrower seeking foreclosure counseling had nearly $17,000 in credit-card debt, compared with about $13,000 two years ago.
With fuel prices and property taxes rising, “the total household debt is incredible” for many borrowers, says Michael van Zalingen, director of homeownership services at Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121267502895448531.html?mod=fox_australian
From the WSJ:
Real-Estate Woes of Banks Mount
Lenders Dumping Bad Loans at Discount;
Regulators See Losses Continuing
By MICHAEL CORKERY, JONATHAN KARP and DAMIAN PALETTA
June 6, 2008; Page A1
Federal regulators warned Thursday that banking-industry turmoil would continue as financial institutions come to terms with piles of bad loans they made to finance the construction of homes and condominiums.
Until now, most of the damage to banks from the housing crisis has come from homeowners defaulting on their mortgages. But amid a dismal spring sales season for new homes, loans to home and condo builders are looking increasingly shaky. Banks have begun to dump them at what will likely be steep discounts, setting the stage for billions of dollars in fresh losses.
“As long as the housing market is on a downward path, as long as those prices continue to fall, I think there’s a risk that the losses could continue to mount on a variety of loans,” Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn told the Senate Banking Committee Thursday.
At the same hearing, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said banks that aren’t diversified, or those with high exposures to residential construction and development, are of particular concern. “That’s where we are really seeing the delinquencies spike,” she said.
…
Banks with swelling portfolios of troubled loans tied to land and housing are struggling to unload some of their real-estate debt. IndyMac Bancorp Inc., a Pasadena, Calif., lender, is trying to sell $540 million in loans made to finance land purchases and housing construction projects. Winning bids on many of the loans were, on average, about 60 cents on the dollar, according to people familiar with the matter. But some winning bids were only about 20 cents on the dollar.
Cleveland-based KeyBank, a unit of KeyCorp., is trying to unload $935 million in loans tied to land and residential developments, while Wachovia Corp. is shopping a $350 million loan portfolio, according to two people who have seen the offerings. Representatives of the banks declined to comment.
The sales are a response to a growing problem: Home builders are falling behind on loan payments, and the value of the land and housing developments that serve as loan collateral is plummeting. Over the next five years, U.S. banks could “charge off” as bad debt between 10% and 26% of their loans tied to residential construction and land assets, which would amount to about $65 billion to $165 billion, according to a report sent to clients Thursday by housing research firm Zelman & Associates. That compares with charge-offs of about 10% of construction-related bank assets, totaling $31.6 billion, when adjusted for inflation, during the last housing downturn in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In 2007 and the first quarter of this year, banks wrote down just 0.7% of such assets, according to Zelman.
From the WSJ:
Housing Pain Hits Prime Borrowers
Foreclosures Increase
As Troubles Worsen
Outside of Subprime
By RUTH SIMON
June 6, 2008; Page A5
Mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures continued to surpass record levels in the first quarter, as the prolonged decline in home prices and shifting economic conditions trapped a growing number of prime borrowers.
Delinquencies and foreclosures increased at the fastest pace for borrowers with prime adjustable-rate mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, though borrowers with subprime ARMs still account for the largest share of troubled loans. The number of new prime ARM foreclosures increased by 29,000 to 117,000 in the first quarter, while the number of new subprime ARM foreclosures increased by 20,000 to 195,000. This is the first time prime foreclosures have grown faster than subprime foreclosures, the MBA said.
…
Still, the rise in past-due loans was widespread, with delinquencies up year over year in every state except Louisiana. Thirty-nine percent of subprime ARMs and more than 10% of prime adjustables are at least one payment past due. Option ARMs, which carry a low introductory rate but can lead to a rising loan balance, account for much of the rise in delinquent prime ARMs, Mr. Brinkmann said.
The data provide little evidence things will improve soon. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com, notes credit-bureau data from April show delinquencies have become “measurably worse” in the second quarter. “The problem now is negative equity combined with a weakening job market,” he said, rather than resetting adjustable-rate mortgages.
Falling home prices have exacerbated the problems in the mortgage market by making it more difficult for borrowers who run into trouble to refinance or sell their homes. “The only alternative for them is foreclosure,” says Paul Willen, a senior economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. “That accounts for a lot of what we are seeing.”
As the downturn in the housing market deepens, more borrowers who had higher incomes and good credit are getting swept up by the undertow. “Usually these people have things they can draw on that let them hang on longer,” such as savings and 401(k) accounts, says Gabe del Rio, vice president of lending and homeownership for Community HousingWorks in San Diego, which provides foreclosure counseling. Many of the more-affluent borrowers coming for help previously worked in the mortgage or real-estate industries, he says.
Falling home prices are also making it more difficult for borrowers to tap their equity to pay bills. At LSS Financial Counseling Service, based in Duluth, Minn., the average borrower seeking foreclosure counseling had nearly $17,000 in credit-card debt, compared with about $13,000 two years ago.
With fuel prices and property taxes rising, “the total household debt is incredible” for many borrowers, says Michael van Zalingen, director of homeownership services at Neighborhood Housing Services of Chicago.
From Bloomberg:
Frank-Dodd Rescue Prolongs Housing Crisis by Deferring Defaults
Dan Castro favors cutting the amount of money that some delinquent homeowners owe him so they can qualify for government help and avoid foreclosure. He’s not sure other mortgage-backed securities investors feel the same.
For legislation being considered by Congress to work, they would have to.
“You’ll never get everybody on board,” said Castro, chief risk officer for New York-based Huxley Capital Management.
Proposals advancing in the Senate and House of Representatives would call for the federal government to insure as much as $300 billion in refinanced mortgages, potentially saving up to 2 million borrowers from foreclosure, according to one of the sponsors, Representative Barney Frank. Declining home prices will mean that one-third of those borrowers will default again, prolonging the deepest housing crisis since the 1930s, said Michael Carliner, former economist at the National Association of Home Builders in Washington.
“Clearly, if you recast the mortgage lower and it still goes bad, you’re just prolonging the agony and making the loss severity worse than it is now,” said Castro, formerly chief credit officer at GSC Group and managing director of structured finance research at Merrill Lynch & Co.
In addition to counting on investors to cut the principal they are owed, the bills, backed by Senator Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat, would require borrowers to keep making their monthly payments even as they are given an incentive to stop. Holders of second-lien mortgages also would have to consent to taking losses of more than 99 percent.
…
“If you change contracts, you call into question whether future agreements will be fulfilled,” Deutsch said. “If investors don’t believe contracts will be fairly upheld, the credit crisis in America will extend much, much longer than it would.”
From CNBC:
Friday’s Jobs Report Likely To Show Loss of 58,000
The U.S. economy likely shed jobs for the fifth straight month in May as flagging consumer confidence and the worst housing bust in generations discouraged hiring.
The economy is expected to have lost 58,000 jobs in May, after losing 20,000 a month earlier, according to a Reuters poll of 90 economists.
I don’t care if my house value drops. I bought it to have a place to live, not to become a billionaire.
Health and physical well-being is what is important, not what Mercedes you drive, McMansion you live in, or designer pocketbook your wife has.
NJ Politicians:
“This foreclosure crisis is REAL. We need to come up with something so we can profit from this…”
“How about a $2,000 tax on every foreclosure?”
“Brilliant!! We will be RICH!!!”
“Huxley Capital Management”
Motto: It’s a Brave New World.
Grim
Visiting the Alamo?
25….why do you hate our freedom so?
“I don’t care if my house value drops. I bought it to have a place to live, not to become a billionaire”
most peoples only area of wealth is in their house (its there only asset), so if that starts to go down in value, they have nothing. A very uncomfortable feeling for many.
SAS
The latest gas pain: More job losses
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/05/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?postversion=2008060604
Who would have thought a country with an infrastructure that is built on the concept of cheap gas would get hurt by $100+ oil?
/ sarcasm
Now off to work while I still have a job.
sas: I don’t understand that mentality…using your house value to pay for things is kind of the same as using a credit card, no?
I think there should be a statement on the HUD-1 in bold letters that says
“Never use your retirement savings to save the house from foreclosure”
I don’t think people realize that retirement accounts are protected in bankruptcy. If you are about to lose the house, dump what you can in your 401k/403b and IRA’s, you may need it further down the line.
30 – sas,
Tell me about it
“sas: I don’t understand that mentality…using your house value to pay for things is kind of the same as using a credit card, no?”
I agree. but as you know, most people do the wrong thing, at the wrong time.
I am in the same boat as you, I don’t care if my place lost value, I ain’t going anywhere. Although, I am tempted to move sometimes.
SAS
Looks like the Bilderberg Group meets in Chantilly, Virginia this year.
woud love to be a fly on the wall in those rooms.
SAS
May Employment Report
Non-farm payrolls down 49,000
Unemployment rate: 5.5%, largets jump since February, 1986
April non-farm payroll revised to -28,000 from -20,000
It’s no wonder NJP is so busy
From MarketWatch
Jobless rate soars to 5.5% in May
Biggest rise in unemployment in 33 years; payrolls fall 49,000
The U.S. unemployment rate jumped by a half percentage point to 5.5% in May on the biggest increase in seasonally adjusted unemployment in 33 years, the Labor Department reported Friday.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 49,000 in May, the fifth consecutive decrease and in line with expectations of economists.
The economy has lost 324,000 jobs so far this year.
Unemployment rose by 861,000 to 8.5 million, the government said. It is the biggest increase in unemployment since January 1975.
The 0.5 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate was a shock, as economists expected a much smaller 0.1 percentage point gain to 5.1%. The jobless rate is the highest since October 2004. It was the biggest percentage point gain in unemployment since 1986.
From Bloomberg
U.S. Payrolls Fell 49,000 in May, Jobless Rate Jumps to 5.5%
The U.S. lost jobs in May for a fifth month and the unemployment rate rose by the most in more than two decades, signaling the world’s largest economy is stalling.
Payrolls fell by 49,000, a smaller decline than forecast, after a 28,000 drop in April that was more than initially reported, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The jobless rate increased to 5.5 percent from 5 percent, the biggest jump since February 1986.
Employers are lowering expenses to protect profits as raw- material costs soar and sales slow. A weaker job market is another blow to Americans hit by falling home values, scarcer credit and higher fuel bills, adding to the risk that the longest consumer-spending expansion on record will come to an end.
“More payroll losses are in store in coming months,” Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York, said before the report. “It corroborates fears of a consumer slowdown or a recession. That’s a major concern right now.”
Revisions subtracted 15,000 from payroll figures previously reported for March and April.
Economists had projected payrolls would drop by 60,000 after a previously reported 20,000 decline the prior month, according to the median of 79 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from decreases of 150,000 to 10,000. The jobless rate was forecast to rise to 5.1 percent from 5 percent.
More at the link above
Hah! Free for all on CNBC.
“sas: I don’t understand that mentality…using your house value to pay for things is kind of the same as using a credit card, no?”
Yes.
But, the lending industry has successfully convinced people that this isn’t borrowing; rather it’s “cashing out equity”. In other words, it’s spending your own money.
In reality it’s just borrowing money and using your house as collateral. To truly “cash out equity”, you would need to sell and die, downsize or rent.
#39 Rich Another 200 point rise in the Dow today?
“it’s “cashing out equity”. In other words, it’s spending your own money”
Like those signs say:
“take a vacation, on the house”
lol
SAS
#38 njpatient: And ADP is now wrong for the 6 month in a row,
Wow! ADP payroll number spot on again!!
Birth death model adjustment for May 648K.
There was an earlier quote from the a VP of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY stating that conventional and prime mortgage foreclosures in nj were “well below the national average”.
Unfortunately an article I read recently that includes all foreclosures shows that NJ isn’t too far behind the nation in foreclosure rates and delinquencies are on the rise.
Today there are just over 30 properties scheduled for auction in Bergen County. I’m going to whip up a page to query BC foreclosures by auction date. Might not be too interesting as most properties don’t even get bid on.
$42 rent; Sad as it is, I know people who think that it really is their money. When you try to explain it to them, you get the blinking of the eyes.
And I am not talking about stupid people. But than again maybe I am.
Stimulus plan II – This time we will hand over stimulus directly to manufactures in China and elsewhere because consumers in the US are not spending their stimulus.
I guess the Fed’s talk about raising rates in th near futurw is dead after this unemployment report.
What now Oh Bearded One?
You promised there would be no repeat of the 1970’s and yet, it is looking more an more like it every day.
Obama & McCain are just puppets.
“Bilderberg Group”
http://tinyurl.com/rmors
SAS
From the B/C county charts thread…
RE:286/287…buying the listing…
Ok this I don’t get..the R/E buys the listing, it’s too high to actually sell..then when the house doesn’t sell that same R/E becomes the problem…”he’s not working hard enough”…”he/she just wants our $”…”ANOTHER agent could sell the house better, give it more attention” etc…it seems to me that buying the listing is just taking on the emotional issues of the homeowners…now when that listing expires and the home owner now hates that original agent, then the second agent swoops in, lists lower cuz now the owners are frustrated and BAM…that second R/E gets the sale …he’s the hero…sometimes it’s better to be second…
Leave a Reply
But, the lending industry has successfully convinced people that this isn’t borrowing; rather it’s “cashing out equity”. In other words, it’s spending your own money.
In reality it’s just borrowing money and using your house as collateral. To truly “cash out equity”, you would need to sell and die, downsize or rent.
There are ways you can legitimately cash out equity without borrowing. Take the piping in your house for example. Copper is doing really well. Just trim out the parts you really don’t need water or heat too.
There was a time you could even sell off part of your land, but there are too many listings in craigslist for “free dirt” now to make a profit.
….ED MCMANSION….best screen name….ever
54 sx
Totally
Works on multiple levels
Laurie:
BAM…that second R/E gets the sale …he’s the hero…sometimes it’s better to be second…
In my mind it’s pretty simple. Don’t “buy the listing”. Agents should understand the market and what the true market value of a home should be and they should have the guts to say “I don’t think you’ll get anywhere near what you’re asking for your home and I’m not going to waste your or my time and energy for nothing. We can try and come up with a reasonable asking price and I can bust my ass to get it sold in this market, or you can go with another agent. The magic in the market is gone and your house is going to sell for what people are willing to pay for it and what lenders are willing to finance it for. Or you can choose to not sell now.”
But for the past couple of years homes have been selling for quite a bit below asking. So even if you properly price a house, are buyers going to expect to get it for even less?
It’s my view, that if an agent accepts a bad deal instead of walking away from it, they have no right to complain about the seller being unreasonable without being called whiny.
crude 133.05
NJ patient,
sorry i wasnt there to entertain you last night, i left early….. 12:15am.
i give you all the credit for maintaining the schedule you keep, i could only do it for about 3-4 weeks before i might have to consider “pharmacueticals”.
not around a pc to much either, in the field a lot,
“There was a time you could even sell off part of your land, but there are too many listings in craigslist for “free dirt” now to make a profit.”
I notices a lot of people selling their landscaping on craigs list as part of a moving sale.
http://newjersey.craigslist.org/grd/698867762.html
Another update on the three houses that are/were for sale on my block.
House number 1 started out at the beginning of last summer with a 470K price tag, went through numerous reductions and finally sold for somewhere in the vicinity of 360K. (It needs a TON of work.)
House number 2 started out two summers ago with a 530K price tag, which was lowered to 500K after 18 months. It has not sold. (It also needs a TON of work.)
House number 3 went on the market for 900K about 6 months ago. It is a new-construction behemoth with the requisite granite and stainless steel, and enough bathrooms for (almost) every day of the week. The desperate builder powerwashed MY house in an attempt to help this thing sell, and is now thinking of moving into it himself, since the sales market for beach houses sure ain’t what it was when he started building.
Dear Potential Sellers,
We live in Northern NJ, which is insulated from the rest of country because of proximity to NYC where the jobs and wealth reside.
If you’re going to list your house, take the comps from Q4 2005 and price 10% above that as your starting point as interest rates are at historic lows and there is much pent up demand. Remember, we live in a prestigous area. Don’t accept anything less for your pristine home.
PGC: I notices a lot of people selling their landscaping on craigs list as part of a moving sale.
That’s a joke right? It’s early enough in the morning where things get past me.
And gary’s comment is supposed to be sarcastic too right?
I need another cup of coffee.
And the Tin Ear Award for June goes to….
….GEORGE W. BUSH….
…for his declaration of “National Homeownership Month”:
*******
For many Americans, owning a home represents freedom, independence, and the American dream. During National Homeownership Month, we highlight the benefits of owning a home and encourage our fellow citizens to be responsible homeowners.
My Administration is committed to helping Americans achieve their dreams of homeownership. We have worked to ensure that the mortgage industry is more transparent, reliable, and fair, and in order to sustain homeownership, we have launched initiatives to help responsible homeowners keep their homes. The FHASecure program has given the Federal Housing Administration more flexibility in refinancing mortgages for homeowners who have good credit histories but cannot afford their current payments. In addition, the HOPE NOW Alliance connects struggling homeowners with lenders, loan servicers, and mortgage counselors to help families stay in their homes. Homeowners deserve our help, and these initiatives assist those in need.
During National Homeownership Month and throughout the year, I encourage all Americans to take advantage of financial education opportunities to explore homeownership. My Advisory Council on Financial Literacy is finding ways to help educate people from all walks of life about matters pertaining to their finances and their futures. By practicing fiscal responsibility, Americans can contribute to the strength of our neighborhoods and our country.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States of America, by virtue of the authority vested in me by the Constitution and laws of the United States, do hereby proclaim June 2008 as National Homeownership Month. I call upon the people of the United States to join me in recognizing the importance of homeownership and building a more prosperous future for themselves and their communities.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-ninth day of May, in the year of our Lord two thousand eight, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and thirty-second.
GEORGE W. BUSH
*******
What a maroon.
gary,
i believe you meant “pant” up demand. dont make me attach you!
#62 Tom: gary’s letters are part of his therapy process.
#61 gary: plaes compoase an open letter to realtor’s reflecting today’s unemployment numbers.
Pehaps it might wake them up.
Sure unemployment is at 5.5%. So what?
94.5% are still employed.
kettle1 [64],
pent = pant, of course.
What the h*ll was I thinking!
NCC $4.82 -$0.53 -9.91%
As of 9:33AM 06/06/08
NATIONAL CITY CORP NYSE
#67 What can I say, you are clueless
3b,
I just conferenced with some realtors; they told me that the employment numbers are merely a correction. They forecast housing to be somewhat flat for the reminder of the year with 6% to 7% growth starting in Q1 of 2009. They said we should take advantage of the lull and get in before we really, really get priced out forever. For real! They said they REALLY mean it this time.
#57 – July delivery is up by almost $6.50 so far at $134. Pretty much erased any of the easing from them past week.
NYC – Jobless line!
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/06/06/t1home.0921.line.ap.jpg
from cnn dot com
Laurie,
I missed your comment from last night. If you don’t mind sharing, which foreclosure is near your friend?
Those unemployed people can spend more time with their families, pursue other interests, and lower their carbon footprint.
bob
while trying to reduce your carbon foot print may be a good thing it is also something of dostraction. The root of the problem is not carbon, but energy consumption. We can reduce our carbon footprint all day, and while that may good from a climate change perspective it does not directly address the root issue. We are currently using energy at an unsustainable rate given the current energy sources we utilize..
by reducing your energy footprint you are inherently decreasing you carbon foot print ( generally,)
#71 gary: Thanks gary.I knew they would have reasonable explanation.
Thank God we have this dedicated group of highly seasoned professionals who understand markets so well.
These dedicated professionals who can guide us on the road to wealth, propsperity, and, deep emotional happiness through the vehicle of homeownership.
I feel truly blessed.
Peace
“The desperate builder powerwashed MY house in an attempt to help this thing sell,”
Hee!!!
OT: Video of cheapest car designed in India. Working at Tata Motors was my first job out of school. Everyone working at the factory had to follow dress code. I had to wear the same clothes that you see in the video, white shirt and blue pants. The fun days of building engines, forging metal, welding etc…
Designing the Tata Nano
sorry, my typing and grammar suck lately…….
Geez, talk about not managing your finances…
http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/boxing/news/story?id=3428080
ATLANTA — Maybe now we know why former heavyweight champion Evander Holyfield wants to keep fighting at age 45.
The “Real Deal” appears real broke.
His $10 million estate in suburban Atlanta is under foreclosure, the mother of one of his children is suing for unpaid child support, and a Utah consulting company has gone to court claiming the boxer failed to pay back more than a half million dollars for landscaping.
A legal notice that ran Wednesday in a small local newspaper said Holyfield’s estate will be auctioned off “at public outcry to the highest bidder for cash” at the Fayette County courthouse on July 1. The 54,000-square-foot home — located on Evander Holyfield Highway — has 109 rooms, including 17 bathrooms, three kitchens and a bowling alley.
Nice comparison between Obama & McCain
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/election2008.html?mod=2_1309
click “See an Interactive Graphic”
SG, I’ve heard those Tata people have no sense of humor.
What would they do with me? For example, I might typically dress up my office/desk for Halloween: Put up a shower curtain, play a repeating .wav file of a toilet flushing, and wear a towel and a shower cap to work.
How would that go over?
They forecast housing to be somewhat flat for the reminder of the year with 6% to 7% growth starting in Q1 of 2009. They said we should take advantage of the lull and get in before we really, really get priced out forever.
Oh no…I’ve just been struck with a sense of urgency. Do you think if I ask nicely someone would sell me their house? After all, I can’t see someone wanting to let go of such a great investment opportunity. I hope there is still time to get in!
I just don’t understand these Realtarts. Don’t they understand the paradigm has shifted? Getting buyers to feel a sense of urgency was a very successful strategy in 2005, but it doesn’t work today. These Realtorts aren’t doing sellers any favors be instilling a false sense of hope, buyers aren’t buying it, and they aren’t helping themselves either. If they were smart, they would be working on instilling a sense of urgency in sellers.
“94.5% are still employed.”
[67]
Hey, Baghdad simpleton;
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent
of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers;
9.4%
Now subtract the ficticious birth/death scam. You are probably close to 13% unemployed.
The bloodbath kicks it up a notch. Bam, thanks Emeril.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
#84 rent:If they were smart, they would be working on instilling a sense of urgency in sellers.
Precisely. The roles have reversed, the realtors should be playing this accordingly.
7 NJP:
Someone’s got to come out with a motorcycle called the “Vicious”
awesome!
(Or a repair shop named that…)
http://www.viciouscycles.com/index.php3
http://www.viciouscycles.org/
http://viciouscycle.com/
#85 BC Bob: Welcome back!!! We were getting worried about you.
My wife’s cousin Jon is in the Air Force at Barksdale, LA. He is currently stationed in Guam. He sent us this link.
The first video is 3 minutes long. The first 90 seconds is the first takeoff that went normally. The second takeoff starts at 1:45….
________________________________________
Sent: Friday, June 06, 2008 4:41 AM
Subject: B-2 crash video
Well, they finally released the B2 crash investigation results and video. Go to
http://www.airforcetimes.com/news/2008/06/airforce_b2_crashreport_060508w/
and click on the B2 story and you’ll see the links. There are two video’s of the crash.
It was amazing to see that in person, and watching it again is really weird. Sucks to see it go in the dirt.
Jon
Everybody’s HELOC gets chopped:
Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. amended its credit agreement to reduce its borrowing capacity from $900 million to $300 million. The difference would be made up in a $600 million note sale to Credit Suisse Securities, Banc of America Securities, J.P. Morgan Securities and Wachovia Capital Markets. The maturity date of the facility remains May 31, 2011. Borrowings would bear interest at a rate equal, at the company’s option, to: one, two, three or six month LIBOR, plus 4.5%; or a base rate equal to the greater of PNC Bank’s prime rate and the federal funds effective rate plus 0.5%, plus 2.75%; or an index rate based on daily LIBOR, plus 4.625%. In addition to paying interest on outstanding principal under the revolving facility, the company would be required to pay an unused fee equal to 0.55% per year on the daily average unused portion of the revolving facility. The company would also pay a letter of credit fee of 4.5% per annum on the average outstanding face amount of letters of credit issued under the revolving facility.
http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=0BE727B91497C76B21C7DBB80B24875A
First of all unemployed people don’t buy houses so who cares.
Secondly people who invest all their money in homes don’t buy stock or bonds so who cares what that market is doing.
Thirdly, Flippers don’t heat homes anyhow or commute far to work so who cares about energy costs.
Finally, Real Estate Investors are so rich from the go go era they all buy cash so who needs financing anyhow.
Just Buy Buy Buy as the NAR says their has never been a better time to buy real estate and that on average most homeowners who live in their homes at least ten years never loses any money and makes big cash!!!!
Laurie (52)-
I’ve been making a living being the “second agent” for years. These days, the minute the “we’re not giving it away” and “we have all the time in the world” talk starts, I just stand up, shake the seller’s hand, wish them well and leave. I also make sure to ask them to call me in six months if their house hasn’t sold.
“Buying the listing” is for agents who are dopes and hacks.
SG, I’ve heard those Tata people have no sense of humor.
LOL. I personally did not like dress code idea at all, I left it after few months, even though pay was great.
3b [87],
Been swamped. Plus I’ve been shopping for a new pair of boots, to match my shorts.
Tom (56)-
Leading- or allowing- a client to take actions based upon false expectations is borderline fraud (I’m not an attorney; this is just my opinion). If the worst that comes from this is whingeing from the seller when his bubble bursts and reality sets in, that agent is lucky, IMO.
Wait until the lawsuits start over agents who encourage overpricing in order to secure the listing. It will happen.
BC (93)-
Steel-reinforced boots?
http://www.beermenus.com/
Merrill Lynch started collecting names for their September layoffs already.
NJ Patient,
I have discussed some of the “matrix”, energy and human information flow ideas with people who understand the concepts, but they ask
” ok so what can you do about it, you or i cannot effect that”
that brings up an interesting point. what do you do with that info? how do you react to it?. I guess i am at a similar stage to my son. he has figured out that gravity exists and is till in the process of testing it ( picking up and then dropping anything he can get his hands on…. 11 months old) but doesnt quite get how to use it yet.
I am still not quite sure what to do with the idea’s and concepts i have recently aquired.
#93 BC Bob: Understood.UBS closed their muni bond dept yesterday.
The 280+ people laid off started getting their severance packages yesterday form HR.
I am told it was incredibly sad at 1285 Ave of the Americas yesterday (understandly so).
Also most of Bear Stearns muni employees were let go earlier this week, in addition to a chunk of JP Morgan’s muni people.
All and all a bad week for the muni business.
“Steel-reinforced boots?”
Clot,
Need more flexibility, probably customized for dancing.
So, now you have MSM prediction. I wonder why MSM that could not pronounce RE bubble is too quick to pronounce OIL bubble.
Why oil prices will tank
#98 Kettle1
Here, cheer yourself up.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/ethicalliving/2008/06/is_there_any_point_in_going_gr.html
Leading Academics Talk to Hedge Fund Managers About Freud, Finance and ‘Quacks’
Taffler builds on the market bubble literature to propose 5 emotional stages through which bubbles must progress:
“Emerging to View”: Journalists catch on and the hype begins – establishing the investment as a “phantasy” object.
“Rush to Process”: The security begins to elicit “compulsive behaviour” and becomes the object of an “intergenerational rivalry” (former dot-com entrepreneurs: you know what I’m talking about).
“Psychic Defense”: Doubt creeps in but is quickly quashed due to a sense of “triumphalism” on the part of investors.
“Panic Phase”: Everyone freaks out, exits the sector and goes back to their marketing jobs – causing stocks to be viewed as “shameful.”
“Revulsion and Stigmatization”: Yes, it gets worse… An “experience of loss” is met by a quest to condemn someone else for getting investors into this pickle.
http://tinyurl.com/5pjeu7
PGC,
a classic argument, and there are some good points made. But for me the point is not ethics or morals. It is financial/social survival and success (relative to my definition thereof). Smoke Em If You Got Em is great and all, but if you dont have an understanding of or a plan for what happens at the end of the party then you are going to be very unpleasantly surprised.
101 SG
” I wonder why MSM that could not pronounce RE bubble is too quick to pronounce OIL bubble.”
Because the MSM’s job is to cheerlead the economy, of course. Rising home prices are good, rising oil prices are bad. Therefore the media calls an early bubble in oil and a late bubble in housing.
From the article you linked:
“”History suggests that when there’s this much money to be made, new supplies do get developed,” says Brown.
That’s just the supply side of the equation. Demand should start to decline as well, albeit gradually.”
Reading that made my brain bleed.
98 kettle
I’ve found that wine helps.
98-Ket
“I am still not quite sure what to do with the idea’s and concepts i have recently aquired”
– Damn! It is like looking in a mirror. Although, I probably have acquired only a fraction of the knowledge you have.
Clotpoll:
If the worst that comes from this is whingeing from the seller when his bubble bursts and reality sets in, that agent is lucky, IMO.
I meant that agents have no right to whine about sellers when they knowing go into the deal for a house they know is over priced. Good to hear you take a more realistic approach and I’m sure your clients appreciate it. It looks like housing prices will fall for some time and a seller is better off selling fast.
SG:
So, now you have MSM prediction. I wonder why MSM that could not pronounce RE bubble is too quick to pronounce OIL bubble.
The viscosity makes oil bubbles easier to to comprehend.
BC (100)-
Dancing? Like Chuck Prince-style dancing?
“So, now you have MSM prediction. I wonder why MSM that could not pronounce RE bubble is too quick to pronounce OIL bubble.”
SG,
When pos stocks, dot-com, are flying it’s a roaring bull market, when pos cape’s are selling for 100-150k over realistic values, it’s healthy price appreciation. On the flip side when crude/grains/metals are steadily advancing it’s mere speculation and manipulation.
Pat (103)-
“Revulsion and Stigmatization”
Pat, what does it mean if I spend 80% of my waking hours in this phase?
Tom (108)-
Gotta keep it real. If I don’t, me and my clients are sucking ramen.
Hell, some of them are sucking ramen anyway.
“Dancing? Like Chuck Prince-style dancing?”
Clot,
Chuck dances while the music is still playing. I left the dance floor before the encore. My dancing begins when the party music stops, on to taps. By the way, I hear the band is leaving the bldg.
Well, it could mean that you’re on the verge of a Kettle breakthrough, or possibly a Duck breakdown.
In either case, be prepared for a severe case of the munchies once it’s over.
I like to keep Doritos handy.
Uh-oh, situation developing…
This morning in my inbox I was getting emails from my wife with links to a couple houses. I asked her what are these for? She said “Oh this house is so cute, maybe we can take a look at it this weekend.”.
I asked her “What happened to her plan? I thought we were going to wait until next year at the earliest.”
She went into a whirlwind of things from: not buying earlier, worrying about daycare for the kids, finding someone to watch the kids, etc….
Ultimately I said we had to stick to our plan. That was to enjoy living in the city for now and than start looking late next year. I couldn’t talk at work much longer, so I said we would have to talk about it at home tonight. Looks like I’m going to have to put the genie back in the bottle later.
#115 Hard Place
“Now is a great time to buy REO”
re #101 SG – oil prices will not be going down to $50 a barrell anytime soon, commodity prices overall are now responding to currency hedging.
There is simply too much money flowing into commodities.
Also the oil producing nations are not about to give up their largess just because Joe sixpack is crying about the hundred bucks it now cost to fill up his SUV twice a week.
The government overall is in a big pickle. They need to raise interest rates to stem inflation but the finacial crisis caused by the easy money bubble has not abated.
[50] 3b,
Speaking of the ’70s, hasn’t the dem primary reminded you of ’72?
I mean, we have Hillary, the establishment favorite, who cried in N.H., beaten by the far left upstart (Obama), just as Muskie, the establishment favorite, who cried in N.H., was beaten by the far left upstart (McGovern).
[115] Hardplace,
I feel your pain.
Does she also do the “bracket creep” where you agree to a price range, then she starts wanting to see houses that are 25K more, then 50K more, then 100K more?
[106] patient,
I’ve moved on to scotch.
#118 Nom: I had not thought of that, but you have a point.
Sean [117],
Bingo.
Bergabe wanted to burp, unfortunately he farted. It was never about rates. The problem was/is insolvency/debt burdens. He can go to zero, it won’t matter. Home prices will continue to deflate while real incomes get pummeled. All he has done is feed the commodity bull.
We have a fed that has now has lowered rates, raised them and lowered again. In the same time frame the ECB has done nothing! Eliminate the fed, stop the bubbles/busts.
120 nom
“I’ve moved on to scotch.”
Ah. I’ve included scotch, but I wouldn’t say I’ve moved on. I’m generally happy to include both.
At some point last year we had a couple of entire threads devoted to scotch and bourbon choices.
Who knew there’s pant up supply!
Nom Deplume Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 11:49 am
[115] Hardplace,
“I feel your pain.
Does she also do the “bracket creep” where you agree to a price range, then she starts wanting to see houses that are 25K more, then 50K more, then 100K more?”
Nom, Hardplace, I’m getting the same from my wife. We gotta hang tough, maybe start our own support group.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080605/general.html
“The jump in unemployment was sparked by an influx of teenagers into the work force this summer. The number of teens entering the job market outweighed the available jobs last month.”
Saw this MSN – Money. My BS Meter is going off.
3b, and lets not forget also, we have a war as a backdrop, and an incumbent threatened with impeachment. The parallels are amazing.
Now, if history repeats itself, Obama’s gonna get pasted.
And, yes, I am from Massachusetts. Gotta see if I have one of those buttons around someplace.
schivo,
Use the veto. I actually did this. I told her I wasn’t signing a mortgage for more than $XXX dollars. If she wanted to buy that 900K house, she could do it herself.
[124] NJP
I used to be a bourbon drinker (dated a Smithie from Kentucky and she introduced me to Makers Mark and Wild Turkey). But having been introduced to decent single malts (and now being able to afford them), I prefer scotch.
And I haven’t given up on the grape. In fact, I am still stockpiling bottles even though we are in a short term rental. I foresee that even that will go up in the future. Fortunately, you can cellar wine (unlike gasoline).
Is there a better source for foreclosures than realtytrac? I went to see a house last Sunday, the agent told me it was a short sale, yet it has never appeared on realtytrac.
#129 Nom: Now, if history repeats itself, Obama’s gonna get pasted.
That is where I think the similarities might end.
If McCain peforms any thing like he did with his speech the other night, I do not think he has a chance.
And as the economy continues to detiorate Obama will IMO be able to capitalize on that.
Mc Cain’s comment earlier this year that the economy is not really his thing, will come back to haunt him.
Nom,
I’m actually guilty of bracket creep, however I do it to make sure I’m getting good value for the dollar. I’m the numbers guy, so she’s okay with what I think we could afford.
Schivo,
With my wife, if I paint her a good picture and tell a good story of how things will be I can usually take her to the place we need to be.
Today was just a minor hiccup in the road. Or so I think, stay tuned…
Nom, Hardplace,
Thanks for the tips.
PG: Now is a great time to buy REO”
Is this another bit of sarcasm I missed?
I get the feeling that banks are trying to still squeeze as much money from REO’s before the crap really hits the fan.
PGC Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 11:34 am
#115 Hard Place
“Now is a great time to buy REO”
It’s always a good time for REO.
I’m sure there are good deals to be found, but my theory is that why look for the one ripe apple in the orchard during the summer, when you just wait until the fall and there will be plenty of ripe apples for picking.
[133] 3b,
That is correct, the similarities end there (though I forgot that in 72, the economy was hurting and we had the first oil shock–more grist for the mill), and this isn’t the 70’s.
There have also been paradigm shifts in the entire campaign process and in the electorate since 1972. But for an old political junkie like myself, the similarities that are there are fun to watch.
BC Bob,
Are you gonna be there, Saturday June 14th, 5 pm, at the Brass Rail in Hoboken?
How the heck can a bank teller and an EMT afford a house on Long Island?
Bank Teller is not even a real job. Most tellers are HS/College kids or house wife’s doing it for the benefits when their husband has a job with poor benefits. I think Chase pays something like 18K a year for tellers.
EMT is an exciting rewarding job but how much can it pay?
Houses are coming down in price and their will be assistance programs for first time buyers so maybe they can swing a junky home in Freeport or something but with two or more kids no way.
This fixer upper on the right side of Freeport is most likely the best they can do right now.
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2026682&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2026682&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
Rich [139],
I am going to try. If I’m there, I owe you some drinks, along with JB.
By the way, excellent work on those charts. Kudos to you. It recharged my batteries. I think you should send those to Career Builder, for the next monkey/charts, commercial. I would imagine that even BIA could interpret these? I know, that’s saying a lot.
I have never seen charts like these. I showed some of our technician’s and blacked out BC RE and prices. Our CNBC chartologist stated that the only charts that comes close was the BP [Soros], Black Wednesday, 1992, and the cattle chart during the outbreak of mad cow disease. He said these charts made 1987 look like a walk in the park.
It’s gonna be a long, long, long walk home.
Since social class comes up in conversation here, I was wondering if anyone saw this tool:
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/html/national/20050515_CLASS_GRAPHIC/index_01.html
Touched down in San Anton. Drove past the Alamo for njp.
BC (140),
Hope you can make it, it would be a pleasure to meet you.
BC,
If I could get one more datapoint, it would be unaccepted bid prices.
We’ve got the ask and the volume, and we’ve got the settlement, but we don’t have bid. The spread between ask and settle looks to be near 10%, could the spread between bid and settle be just as wide?
Just heard that Fidelity is laying off 5600 people;all in California I am sure.
Kettle,
What did you think of that Bakken article? Obviously they haven’t done anything re converting the oil shale itself but interesting they’ve been able to get decent production from the resevoirs they’ve found.
Those stocks are all through the roof. I bought some of that NOG after reading the article and a couple of reports. It’s gone parabolic.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NOG&t=5d
Obviously it’s a speculative play but with oil prices doing what they are doing it’s likely most of those companies will be profitable. There are a bunch of other co’s doing the same or similar things BEXP, CXO, WLL, PXP etc.
Those social class charts won;t help you in BC. Any salary of $250k and up and a net worth of over a million is all the same 99%. We all know in Alpine NJ a guy with a 250K salary and a million in assets is a lot different than a guy with a 5 million dollar salary and 50 million in assets.
The 250K guy is a slight step above homeless in Alpine.
M 08 Crude $136 gets lifted
Wow, oil up $8.77 to $136.34.
And USD down a lot against EUR & GBP.
Guess everyone sees the rate cut coming.
Is it going to be .125 or .25?
Just heard that Fidelity is laying off 500 people;all in California I am sure.
Rich [143],
The pleasere will be all mine.
Do you know if the establishment accepts Euro’s? It’s a little scary carrying around paper which states that the note is legal tender for all debts public and private. Approx 25% of our federal reserve notes are now backed by worthless/toxic subprime loans.
Now, say the establishment is aware of this? Does that mean if I order a beer, I will receive only 3/4 of a glass, while paying for a full beer? It’s possible if the tavern does not acccept subprime paper. Therefore, should I bring Euro’s if I want a beer filled to the brim?
#147 John: Well in Bergen Co 70% of all residents have a total incoem of 100K or less.
It should work just fine.
“if I want a beer filled to the brim?”
It’s Hoboken, home of the short fill. I don’t think I ever got a beer with less than an inch of foam on top.
141 lostinny
fascinating.
Did you see the tab where “how important is it to you to have faith in God” was correlated with income quintile? 79% at the bottom quintile, tapering off to 54% at the top quintile.
151 bc
I think they’ll accept “dollars”, but they’ll serve you “beer”.
“If I could get one more datapoint, it would be unaccepted bid prices.”
JB,
Can this fit on one spreadsheet?
BC,
re beer
1/4 ounce gold coins perhaps?
Jill #63 – That’s a joke right? Right?
Was Bergabe paying attention to Trichet this morning? That’s how you goose a currency.
‘soosh
No.
It isn’t.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/05/20080529-7.html
kettle [157],
A few gold coins, a container of crude and some ears of corn. That will take care of the group for the night.
njpat,
So to generalize…
believing in god makes you poor
or
because you are poor you believe in god.
Nom Deplume Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
[124] NJP I used to be a bourbon drinker (dated a Smithie from Kentucky and she introduced me to Makers Mark and Wild Turkey). But having been introduced to decent single malts (and now being able to afford them), I prefer scotch.
smokey
http://www.laphroaig.com/
154 Patient
Yes I saw it. It’s not news to me but it may be to many that religion is a much bigger part of life for lower class or lower income people.
162 Hard place
It’s not a cause. But there is a relationship.
As they say…..
Lang may yer lum reek!
(Long may your chimney smoke!)
That is total household income. I bet more than 70% of BC makes over 100K.
Total household income is Husband, Wife, kids jobs, interest income, stock gains, bonuses, stock options etc.
Now I do agree straight up one person salary their is a lot lot less 100K people in BC than people think.
Downsizing the American Home
sorry if a repost:
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/105204/Downsizing-the-American-Home
Would love to see a burb of ranches, capes & bungalows on acre approx lots.
Most of China and Russia don’t believe in God and they are mostly broke. Believing in God increases your income, but being a born again, orthodox, strict muslim, Jehovah etc. reduces your religion.
Episcipalians I think have the highest salary. Their catholic light style of religion is well suited for the business world.
Hardplace,
Dont have time to back this up, but there is a negative correlation between Intelligence and “organized” religion. Spirituality is a different matter.
Scotch — Craggamore
Bourbon — Rip Van Winkle
god & poor
just being a bit facetious…
I bet more than 70% of BC makes over 100K.
Which brand of Kool-aid are you drinking? I need some as well.
Actually, important number is household income of renters. Those are the folks who will be buying starter homes, to trigger plankton effect.
Amazon.com Web site service unavailable
#169 John:Episcipalians I think have the highest salary.
No actually it is the Mormons.
#167 john: Not according to the U.S. Census numbers. Sorry to disappoint you, but there are more working class run of the mill every day towns in Bergen County, than there are the tiny Alpine’s and small Saddle Rivers.
Alpine has about 2000 people, and does not even have a school. Total school age population a few years ago was around 26.
There is the myth of Bergen County, and the reality;two very different things.
In the middle of all this oil rally, what about the news of these banks seeking additional capital. It will be interesting to see how some of these banks mark their books following the recent ratings decline of Ambac/MBIA as I’m sure they provide a lot of hedges through default swaps and guarantees on securities.
“I bet more than 70% of BC makes over 100K.”
John,
How much would you like to wager?
It’s funny, I grew up in Bergen County and never knew it was considered upscale until I was older. Well, I grew up in Southern Bergen Cty, I guess that would explain it.
Apropos the Euro-Dollar comments…
Jersey Shore Lassos New Yorkers Hobbled by Price of Gasoline
he New Jersey Shore is putting out the welcome mat for vacation orphans — Northeasterners who scuttled plans to visit distant destinations because of high gasoline prices or the weak dollar.
“It’s going to be a great year for the Jersey Shore, as long as it doesn’t rain on the weekends,” said Pat English, a realtor in Point Pleasant. “People want to stay closer to home.”
Vacationers from northern New Jersey, Connecticut and New York’s Staten Island and Long Island are paying $10,000 to $32,000 to book beach homes for the entire 14-week season, English said. In Stone Harbor, rentals are up at least 10 percent from last summer, Mayor Suzanne Walters said.
More at http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aUmXu1crCnCE&refer=home
Ed McMahon explains why he is in foreclosure…it’s great that he wants to speak for the other million foreclosures but I wish he spoke more firmly about financial literacy rather than “look, I am a nice guy who took care of my family and friends, worked hard, and now find myself in this mess…it just kind of happened”…come on!
http://www.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/TV/06/06/lkl.mcmahon/index.html
N 08 Crude 138.12 goes
Up 10.33
#182 afe: BARF!!!
“In the middle of all this oil rally, what about the news of these banks seeking additional capital”
HP [177],
I was just whistling the same tune. Recently, when Fuld stated that we were in the 9th inning, I thought he was alluding to Ernie; “Let’s play two”. However, I missed his point completely. What he meant, it’s the top on the ninth, he’s losing 10-0. The bullpen door opens and Metallica’s, “Enter Sandman” is blasting. Now it sinks in.
“Well, I grew up in Southern Bergen Cty, I guess that would explain it.”
Doyle,
Ditto.
Believing in God increases your income
I know I’ve become wealthy beyond belief since I discovered the FSM, ramen.
“Amazon.com Web site service unavailable”
Ugh. They’ve been having weird problems lately. Late yesterday afternoon their ad serving stuff was incredibly slow and timing out frequently.
This was at a point where I was getting a of requests to my foreclosure site. Since there’s a lot of javascript for the table maps and other stuff, the Amazon banner was holding up everything. Causing the maps and listings to not show up. My site is very new so to have 20-30 people come to my site in such a short period of time, only to find it not working sucks.
I saw the problem at some point and cut the banner out but I’m sure a lot of visitors were affected. I rearranged the javascript to avoid that in the future.
Amazon has recently been offering utility computing and storage solutions. Since the have so many servers online, you can purchase and run virtual servers on their grid. From what I understand they’re selling the excess capacity they use for their own systems. Similar to how they rent out physical space in their warehouses.
Wonder if someone using their grid somehow brought down amazon.com.
BC,
if we bring a barrel of crude we should get about 25 or so beers for it. how may barrels are we going to need, this could get cumbersome….
#188 – kettle1 – At the rate the price is going up today you may want to bring a truck.
“#188 – kettle1 – At the rate the price is going up today you may want to bring a truck.”
This site will then own the bar.
tosh,
i think you mean that at the rate the price of oil is going up i may only need a bucket of oil, not a barrel
#191 & 190 – Both correct. I’m working backwards today. erm… I, like, totally meant to do that…
Did Bergabe mutter something/anything, the other day, regarding the dollar?
“I’m working backwards today”
Tosh,
That’s OK, as long as the spreads are cooperating.
better fill up on the way home before prices go up. Gasoline up $0.21 diesel up $0.29
i like that BC,
the NJ REBar!!!
Re: Ed McMahon
A few years ago he filed suit against his homeowners insurance co. for not adequately cleaning up after a burst pipe. The result was a lot of toxic mold that caused them harm and even killed their dog. The case was settled for over $7million!
They’ve been trying to sell the house now for 2 years and haven’t received any offers. Lets see, bad plumbing and toxic mold… oh yeah and helicopters and paparazzi all over the neighborhood whenever britney spears does something cooky.
Renting [195],
Like I previously stated, the only items appreciating for the f##ked homewoner is their full tank of gas, hopefully, in their driveway and their garden.
Let’s see if the PPT is on call today.
Could someone kindly provide me with an address (and possibly details) for MLS #2820776 aka 2494679?
We’re doing drive-bys this weekend… no, not THAT kind of drive-by. Bad weekend to be visiting from CA with the ’90s and humid, but I guess we’ll have to get used to it again if we’re moving back!
Thanks in advance.
These are 2006 US census numbers: not sure how incomes in NJ have changed since.
New Jersey Estimate Margin of Error
1 earner (dollars) 54,596 +/-1,110
2 earners (dollars) 93,855 +/-961
3 earners(dollars) 111,680 +/-1,609
I’d think BC numbers maybe higher.
Perhaps the biggest amount of rampant fraud in our lifetimes and Mukasey wants to skate along until the end of his term.
http://www.housingwire.com/2008/06/06/us-attorney-general-mortgage-mess-isnt-enron-redux/
2494679
OLP: $599K
LP: $529K
DOM: 95
248 N CENTRAL AVE
Ramsey
#204-205 NNJ – thankya
Yikes with the high price on the busy street.
$139.
I think the we’ve discussed this before, but; at what cost per gallon do the suburbs become unsustainable?
MovinB (200),
This is what I found at NJMLS
2808554 Withdrawn
ACT 248 N CENTRAL AVE $599,000 3/3/2008
W-T 248 N CENTRAL AVE $599,000 3/4/2008
BOM 248 N CENTRAL AVE $599,000 3/13/2008
PCH 248 N CENTRAL AVE $559,000 4/9/2008
PCH 248 N CENTRAL AVE $549,000 5/1/2008
W-C 248 N CENTRAL AVE $549,000 5/20/2008
2820776 Active
ACT 248 N CENTRAL AVE $524,900 5/20/2008
PCH 248 N CENTRAL AVE $524,900 5/21/2008
Tax Records:
Deed $174,900 4/1/1986
Taxes: $9,365
PPT working late on Friday afternoon.
Treasury Department official says the US is not in a recession
#208 Rich –
Thanks much… as with many others, seems too rich for my blood, esp on such a busy street. I’m looking at some of the houses in this range to fall in price sharply come winter. House in the low to mid $400s with $9k+ taxes… ouch
#210 It is noo a recession, but rather a national economic slowdown. Doesn’t that sound much nicer than recession?
BC, govt. stats are old as the hills and shows incomes from a few years ago it does not reflect untaxed income, inheritances, 401k gains, tax free sale of a property, off the books income, unvested bonuses, 401K/FSA contributions,muni bond income etc. Most people try to avoid taxes which is legal unlike trying to evade taxes. If someone shows a 65K income on their taxes it is safe to say they made more not less.
BC Bob Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
“I bet more than 70% of BC makes over 100K.”
John,
How much would you like to wager?
Yeah it’s a recession, it’s a depression.
207 – Toshiro
That’s a great question. I think it would ultimately have to be a much higher oil price.
For example. Now that I live in the city I drive maybe 6k miles a year, when I used to drive 15k. As a family we would probably need two cars so maybe an additional 10k on that car, so a total of 19k miles. Factor in larger house w/ heating/electric/NG cost more than double what I pay for an apt.
My SWAG would be $400 per barrel. Still a bit more to go, but it will be a painful process to get there.
Mormans should not count in my religion with the highest salary. Salary is on a a household income basis level and when you have seven wives and 27 children out working I should hope your household income is high.
I guess the only good news today is that the mind numbingly stupid cap and trade bill got shot down in the Senate, couldn’t even get 50 of the 60 needed for cloture. Maybe be there is some hope of slapping down the equally ignorant housing bailouts that are stirring around.
Also, I was at lunch today and looking up at the college baseball game that was on the TV. One of the players from Univ. of Georgia was up to bat, they posted his statistics which included his major. To my surprise, his major was – housing!
I have never heard of this, I know there a lot of silly majors out there now, especially at these big universities, but housing? He could have gotten a 4 year degree in about 2 weeks by reading this blog.
I live in the surburbs and drive on average 800 miles a year tops. How can you live in city and drive 6,000 miles a year, are you circling looking for a spot?
Park Ridge FUTURE Comp Killer!
2521679 Sold
SLD 150 FREMONT AVE $610,000 11/16/2005
NEW SIDING,SKYLIGHTS,LARGE RENOVATED KITCHEN W/ NEW APPLIANCES AND NEW BATHROOMS
2717244 Withdrawn
ACT 150 FREMONT AVE $729,000 4/30/2007
W-U 150 FREMONT AVE $729,000 9/27/2007
2739743 Active
ACT 150 FREMONT AVE $679,900 9/28/2007
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $664,900 10/10/2007
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $659,900 10/17/2007
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $629,900 11/6/2007
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $599,000 1/6/2008
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $579,000 1/18/2008
EXT 150 FREMONT AVE $579,000 3/19/2008
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $569,000 6/6/2008
PCH 150 FREMONT AVE $559,000 6/6/2008
John,
You average 2.2 miles of driving a day, are you getting limo rides to-from work everyday?
#214 – My SWAG would be $400 per barrel.
So somewhere in the $8 per gal range, figure a bit higher. That sounds about right.
Does anyone know if this has been worked on in any detail? I’d figure one of the think tanks had a paper on it. Hopefully more than one.
John,
Are you a hermit?
Easy – I have friends & family.
Occasional trips to other cities (Boston, Montreal, DC) 2k a year. Going to the burbs for family events 3.5k a year. Circling around on the weekend to find a spot 0.5k a year.
Tom,
I saw another article pointing to his mold problem from back in ’05. I was wondering if that was the same house. Yikes! What a mess! afe
#212 John: You stretching there John.
The myth of Bergen County, vs the reality.Two very different things.
BTW no PPT today. On a late Friday dip they usually do a Sunday night call among themselves and them starting at 7am Monday they have lower level staff start calling major BD, IBs, Banks and Exchanges to see what the opening bell is going to look like. The staff prepare a report to PPT prior to mkt open. If necessary they take some type of action prior to the 9:30 am kickoff or at least have a plan of action prior to 9:30am kick-off if it is need.
If their are numerous sell orders piled up with out much buy side support you are going to tank. With all the black boxes, dark pools and various exchanges you have to work the phones pre-open to see what kick off will look like.
Also park my car in queens so that’s about 20 miles round trip or 1k a year. Make that 7k a year.
#220, at $8/gallon, it would be cheaper to live in a $600k house in bergen than a $300k house in sussex.
almost there
River Vale
2406608 Sold
SLD 564 SYLVAN RD $549,000 8/16/2004
2727715 Expired
ACT 564 SYLVAN RD $659,888 7/7/2007
EXP 564 SYLVAN RD $659,888 1/8/2008
2816099 Active
ACT 564 SYLVAN RD $609,000 4/20/2008
PCH 564 SYLVAN RD $589,000 5/19/2008
PCH 564 SYLVAN RD $559,000 6/6/2008
How can you live in city and drive 6,000 miles
I live in the Shaolin and that’s about what I do.
John,
You must be a total shut in. 800 miles a year? You do know Brooklyn doesn’t qualify as a suburb.
I think the we’ve discussed this before, but; at what cost per gallon do the suburbs become unsustainable?
I don’t think there is a clear cut off point. Rather, I see it more as heavily discounting the burbs as fuel costs rise to compensate for increased commuting costs. While 28% of gross income has typically be considered “affordable” this number could fall based on fuel costs consuming a larger chunk of the family budget.
For example (assuming a car that gets 20 MPG), every 10 additional miles of commute (one way) costs $20 per month in additional fuel costs for every $1 increase in the cost pf gasoline.
Assuming gas went up by $1 per gallon, with everything else being equal, I would discount a house that is 10 miles further from work by $3,335 (as I have $20 less per month to put toward a mortgage payment).
Of course if we get to a point with actual fuel shortages, then all bets are off.
John,
A 401k is quickly evaporating into a 201K. If the stooges are in financials and/or consumer discretionary, it may be a 100.25K plan. Inheritance? Do I pray that my parents pass on to receive a check?
Paramus Comp Killer!
2531797 Sold
SLD 68 BUSH PL $560,000 2/7/2006
Bank Owned
2814448 Sold
SLD 68 BUSH PL $475,000 6/5/2008
I live in the surburbs and drive on average 800 miles a year tops. How can you live in city and drive 6,000 miles a year, are you circling looking for a spot?
You average 2.2 miles of driving a day, are you getting limo rides to-from work everyday?
Mom doesn’t let you borrow the Family Truckster anymore?
“Of course if we get to a point with actual fuel shortages, then all bets are off.”
Would be good for IT, companies will have to equip most employees w/ good telecommuting capability. This maybe a good investmeny hedge.
What percentage of jobs truely require your presence in a cubilcle somewhere?
Tenafly Comp Killer!
2635400 Sold
SLD 6 SISSON TER $2,800,000 6/2/2007
Wha?
2723528 Expired
ACT 6 SISSON TER $2,850,000 6/8/2007
PCH 6 SISSON TER $2,775,000 10/18/2007
PCH 6 SISSON TER $2,690,888 11/7/2007
EXP 6 SISSON TER $2,690,888 12/8/2007
2748124 Sold
ACT 6 SISSON TER $2,649,500 12/10/2007
ACT* 6 SISSON TER $2,649,500 5/6/2008
U/C 6 SISSON TER $2,649,500 5/27/2008
SLD 6 SISSON TER $2,350,000 6/5/2008
#230 – While 28% of gross income has typically be considered “affordable” this number could fall based on fuel costs consuming a larger chunk of the family budget.
Of course, in our scenario, it wouldn’t just be gas prices increasing. While the fuel costs increase everything associated or dependent upon that transportation increases as well (e.g. food, clothes, etc)further eroding affordability.
Hmmm. I’d check out Amazon for some books on the subject but the site is down right now.
If telecommuting becomes a larger factor than watch commercial office RE drop. Commercial real estate will drop as rents drop as companies reduce space.
I drive to train station round trip 3 miles. Could walk but don’t feel like it. Bank, Supermarket, Church, Elementary School, Dentist all right my house. My wife’s truck is also low with the miles. I am three houses to the school and she only drives to soccer, church, supermarket all under one mile from house. I really don’t need a second car.
I am not a hermit but driving is like so old school. Half my friends don’t even have cars anymore, cars are like landlines and you need to cut the cord.
I should hit 100,000 on my car by the year 2100.
#237 – Agreed. If virtual offices become a de facto standard then proximity to a city no longer matters and RE prices fall further as Iowa is on an even field w/ everything else.
Well, that may be a bit of a reach but you get where the thought was going.
Buy Stocks as Investors `Misread’ Jobs Report, JPMorgan Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aDlaPbZCxQ2w
This guy is so wrong. Typically teenagers are the hardest to employ in a downcycle due to lack of experience and competition for jobs from other individuals. What a crock of bull to tell someone to buy stocks.
232 That is silly. My 401K has commodity and short market choices. If your company only lets you go long US Equities and Bonds that is soo old school. Plus not all of us even work for US firms. Plus Telecommuting only saves fuel for people with family. The dinks and single people I work with kill the heat in the winter and the AC in the summer. Most of my staff do not have kids and commute on public transportation via monthly ticket. Telecommuting uses more fuel as they will be home blasting AC or Heat.
#241 – Most of my staff do not have kids and commute on public transportation via monthly ticket. Telecommuting uses more fuel as they will be home blasting AC or Heat.
Sometimes your deductive leaps are truly staggering.
/golfclap
John,
I thought you said you liked having telecommute employees.. Something about being able to fire them by email.
Why Iowa, might as well be India.
#244 – Absolutely, anywhere really. Alaska, Mumbai, Ecuador, at that point physical location wouldn’t matter.
I know it’s common up in Cambridge to have these communal offices that start-ups for example can utlize. Most of the company employees work from a home office, but they can rent space in Cambridge by the hour or day to meet, host cusotmers, etc. This may become a more common approach. It’s a great idea. The company can reduce overhead and cost, employees can reduce wasted commuting time and emissions. It would be a blow to the commercial real state industry.
Listing ID#820524 qualifies for comp kller.
163 chi
ah – I was remembering there was another laphroaig fan in the room, but couldn’t remember who it was.
Telecommuting – Already happening at some companies. Some of the major consulting companies have employees without desks. They just book desk space when they want to utilize one.
Laphroaig was my #1 choice for a few years until I discovered Ardbeg. It’s a meal in a glass.
John – I’d argue differently. I think offices use more A/C & heat. I’m sitting here freezing my but off because the A/C is on full blast. The woman in my office have the stars out and sweaters on. People in their own environment will use less energy. I know I only heat/cool as much as I need to be not uncomfortable. I don’t need to wear sweaters in the summer in the office or walk comfortably with only a shirt in the dead of winter.
This is what can happen if you spend too much time in a cubicle:
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/108653.html
Comp Killer in Bridgewater: MLS: 2507411
LP: $694,900
The property assessment: $866,100
Sold As-is
yeesh – what a day!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,363665,00.html
These are two guys who could contribute a lot to a weekend thread here, no?
Wife called me earlier today talking about going on some open houses and maybe buying a home, which is the first time since forever. I said let’s talk about it later after work. Hahaha. She just texted me and said “Forget about the house – I was having a moment of temporary insanity.”
Love that girl!
Okay back to our plan, which is no more open houses until at earliest late next year or some significant price decline. May even renegotiate with my landlord. Rents are supposedly starting to decline in the city. Some places offering incentives to sign a lease.
Dow down 400+, Oil up $11.00, Interesting.
We tried telecommuting here but workers did not want to hotel and give up their desk and practice a clean desk policy. If I am paying rent on an empty office or cube why should they get to telecommute?
Cheaper to let the Employees quit than to give them severance. If oil keeps going up, everyone will try and move closer to their jobs.
400 drop? Where’s the PPT?
I would interject that telecommuting makes the suburbs more viable. Now you are travelling/commuting less and using less energy. Telecommuting would be the counterbalance to rising energy costs for commuters. This way the status quo is maintained and the suburbs do not have to be completely anihilated. I’m all for more dense housing and the suburbs here in the dense north east is no where near unsustainable as somewhere like Texas where there are no other commuting options except the car. Some of these states have to wake up.
Hard Place: Bring her to GTG
I’m going to the GTG.
Re 262, doubt it. My friends who work in Germany where, fuel, electricity, water (both in and out of house), and phone calls are more expensive here don’t want to telecommute as it is too expensive. Why should they pay for that all day and give the employer a free ride. Funny thing he told me is that they tried early dismal and no one left. They all went on the internet, talked on the phone, used company gym and had coffee. They stopped work but did not leave till regular time as why should they go home and pay to do same thing. Wait till January and heating oil is 5 dollar a gallon, people without kids in mcmansions will beg to go to work so they can kill the heat for the day.
GTG sounds like fun, but two youngins and no grandparents that like to babysit.
187: toshiro_mifune:
May you be touched by his noodley appendage.
Ramen to you, too.
http://www.venganza.org/about/open-letter/
(Make noodles, not war)
“2008 Bilderberg Participant List”
http://tinyurl.com/4go6wz
SAS
“Research: 22,000 Jobs Cut on Wall Street, With More to Come”
http://tinyurl.com/458w9a
Following is the announced cutbacks at securities firms—total worldwide followed by the estimated number in New York City:
Citigroup: 15,900; 3,000
Bear Stearns: 9,200; 7,000
UBS 7,000; 1,000
Lehman Bros.: 6,400; 2,000
Merrill Lynch: 5,200; 2,000
Morgan Stanley: 4,400; 2,000
JPMorgan Chase: 4,100; 1,500
Bank of America: 3,700; 1,000
Goldman Sachs: 1,500; 500
Wachovia: 1,400; 1,000
Credit Suisse: 1,300; 750
Deutsche Bank: 500; 250
-SAS
#256 harpalce: I think you will be fine starting to look late THIS year.
JBJB (252) – video
I think that guy was just laid off and he realized he can no longer afford his Northern NJ POS Cape or his $300 pair of jeans.
3b – I’m sticking to my plan, unless I see some dramatic developments. Prices are still too high. I’ve got one shot, why waste it at a lone duck, when I can wait for the flock and get a higher chance of a score.
Telecommuting is priceless to me because it lets me sleep more and gives me 2+ more hours per day to myself. My time is worth a lot.
Giving me the opportunity to avoid the aggravation of road rage (if I decide to drive in) or public transitus disgustubus… also priceless.
This results in a happier, more well-rested worker, who winds up being more loyal and having better morale… and doing better work for the boss. It’s a win-win.
We currently work 1+ day per week telecommuting, and we’ve already lost a few co-workers to jobs that allowed 4+ days per week telecommuting. Anecdotal, sure, but it’s the shape of things to come, IMHO.
265 Hard Place
I’m probably bringing the Little Patients for dinner at 5pm, so you could bring yer youngins ‘n’ come sit by me.
Hi all,
Ive been lurking for a while and I love the blog- the wealth of information as well as the repartee and wit.
Heres my dilemma – weigh in with your opinions, hopefully that will clear my brain.
We are in corporate housing currently until end of August, max. At that point we need to move to either a house weve bought or rented. Based on everything on this blog, Ide prefer to rent for a year, but heres the complication. We have 2 elementary age Brainers who are in the local school right now, that is OK temporarily, but dont think would be great longterm. The hope was, when we moved here, that we’de be here for a couple months and would then buy a house, so the kids would move to a good school in a short time. If we rented in the same town for another year (to maintain continuity for the kids), would that be too long with a less than optimum school? If we rented in another town with a good school, we may not land up buying there (we have multiple towns we would look in) and that would mean 4 schools for the kids in 2 years. Would that be too traumatic for the kids? Any army brats here who could talk of their experiences?
Thanks in advance
WTF, 400 points down on all the good news??
$138 oil – means a lot more demand from the industry –> more production –> more jobs
5.5% unemployment – finally, teenagers quit the couch to look for jobs, great things await us.
njpat,
everyone seems like fine people here, but i just had to twist my wife’s arm to come meet some of my co-workers at a BBQ sponsored by the dept at my new job. So how do I convince her to come meet some people I have never seen before on a blog that she always says “Who are you writing to? Do you have a girlfriend?”. I’m not sure how some of you overcame that hurdle…
Hard Place, I think my husband is related to your wife.
Although, he’s fairly good-natured about my face repetitively being stuck in this blog, and the spontaneous laughter he hears, for two reasons:
(1) He is left alone to his baseball.
(2) He knows how much knowledge I’ve accumulated from folks here.
(3) He kinda sorta knows we need to have our own space.
O.K., that was three. I’m going home.
My husband doesn’t “let me” look at this blog after 8pm Pacific … he says it gets me too angry and agitated at bedtime.
No jokes, please.
AND NOW FROM THE YOU THINK YOU GOT PROBLEMS FILE:
Boxing star Evander Holyfield is fighting back against several reports that he’s having financial problems after news was leaked that his 109-room mansion (you read that right) was in foreclosure.
Reports were also stating that he’s behind in child support.
Holyfield is denying the reports, though, saying that he’s not broke and that he’s always taken care of his kids.
He says, “I’m not broke. I’m just not liquid. I do feel kind of sad because things have always been positive and now everybody wants to jump on me like I’m the worst person in the world and I went out and blew all my money.”
A newspaper on Wednesday published a foreclosure notice on the 235 acres Holyfield owns. He’ll have to make a full repayment of a $10 million loan.
An attorney representing the lending company said yesterday morning that the estate is no longer up for auction, but declined to comment further.
As for Holyfield, he said “everything is alright with the house now.”
Though it’s been reported that he has also taken out two additional mortgages totaling over $5 million. Let’s hope he can pay that back as well.
And, to make it worse, the mother of one of his eleven kids (yes, 11) has filed a petition for contempt claiming that Holyfield is behind on child support.
An attorney for the mother, who is probably getting way more in child support than the average US single mom, has said, “I would’ve liked to have seen him take care of his child support obligations before worrying about his house. If he hasn’t made the proper arrangements by then, we’ll ask that he be incarcerated.”
If he loses his house and goes to jail, then you’re really screwed on the child support for your client!
Holyfield is not keeping quiet about the child support claims.
He stated today, “Never. I would never do something like that. That’s been a consistency in my whole life. I have always taken care of my children. It’s just one of the mothers who’s saying something because she thinks it will embarrass me. I just have to roll with the punches in this situation.”
Ouch. Burn.
Oh, and Holyfield is also getting sued by a Utah consulting firm to which he still needs to repay a $550,000 loan. The lawsuit was filed two weeks ago and alleges Holyfield borrowed the money to pay for landscaping on his estate.
Gotta love this one? No electricity, bring a flashlight! What’s next, bring your own roof?
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2821759&id=999999
#274 lbrainer – Can you find a town with schools you like and rent there til you find a house you like in that same town? My kids were Air Force kids and we moved every 2-3 years til the oldest was in fifth grade. BUT, they were always with other AF kids and one third of them moved every year so they all knew what it was like to be “the new kid” and they were always welcomed into the new school. I know I always told them to watch out for the new kid, introduce yourself and make sure you talk with them during the free time of the day – lunch and recess. (That’s the toughest part of the day for a new kid.) I think it might be more difficult in a civilian school so I think I’d try to move them as little as possible. Hope it works out for all of you!
For Cindy…..
Thaler Explains How “Choice Architecture” Makes the World a Better Place
http://www.chicagogsb.edu/news/2008ManCon/01-thaler.aspx?video=event
“(1) He is left alone to his baseball.”
Pat,
Nirvana. Except, of course, if you root for the pinstripes.
“No electricity, bring a flashlight! What’s next, bring your own roof?”
Looks like someone took a piss on the floor too.
SAS
Pat 278
Mine is very similar but:
1) He is left alone to his hockey. (Well he was until the other day.)
(2) He knows how much knowledge I’ve accumulated from folks here. Me too.
(3) He kinda sorta knows we need to have our own space. And he knows the only way that will happen is if we are smart enough to buy at the right time. But for now, I kick him out of the living room when I need to work out.
281 BC
That carpet is absolutely disgusting. What animal(s) lived there?
#276 Hard Place,
I’m leaving my wife at home with the kids for the GTG.
RE:74 TOM…28 Ackerman in Mahwah is in foreclosure and scheduled to be actioned 7/11. I got that info from the foreclosure link that YOU put up in the charts thread. Funny tho, I live very close and walk my dog in that neighborhood almost daily and I can assure you that there has NEVER been a For Sale sign up and there is no lock box on the door. How can something go to auction without ever being offered on the MLS???
#273 njpatient
I have to take the little PGC’s to grandmas in Queens. I was planning to bring them home and then head out again for the GTG. I might be able to persuade Mrs PGC to join us as she never passes up an chance to eat at the Brass Rail. We used to be a regular at the Monday night fixed price. We could get one of the big tables upstairs for dinner with the kids.
If there are too many kids in the place it could make the high chairs the most valuable real estate in the place.
Cut the cord.
From the Star Ledger:
Verizon customers could see rates double
More than 1 million customers who rely on bare bones local phone service could see their rates double under a tentative settlement reached between Verizon Communications and state officials.
The basic phone service, consisting of a dial tone and unlimited local phone calls, could rise from $8.95 per month — the lowest basic phone service in the nation — to $16.45 over a three-year period, according to the draft settlement negotiated by Verizon, the staff of the Board of Public Utilities and the New Jersey Division of Rate Counsel.
If approved by state regulators, the deal would give Verizon its first increase in residential basic phone service since 1985, but would retain regulatory oversight over the service, an authority state officials did not want to forfeit.
Grim,
The HTTP 500 errors with IE are forcing me to use Firefox or Safari. While both fine browsers, not my ideal choice. But I suppose when your first choice is not always availaible, you can get to like the alternative….. :*)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTgqQ2_KQkc
I’ve been VOIP for 2 years now. Had some issues in the beginning (mostly caused by home automation/seucrity system) but now the service is extremely good.
Can’t beat a one-time charge of $250 a year for unlimited calls.
-Richie
RE: GTG
I plan to go and I don’t care if there are kids. Kids love me because I let them use me as a jungle gym.
(a shame that mine will be out of town with the better half at the cousins–she could keep a few entertained).
Laurie:
How can something go to auction without ever being offered on the MLS???
Thanks for sending me the info I wasn’t sure which property on my site you were referring to. I don’t remember posting a link directly to that property.
From the aerial photo it looks like a nice house. The photo seems to have been taken in the fall but even the landscaping looks good. What is it that your friend says they never fix?
It looks like there’s a dumpster in the driveway and based on the judgment amount they probably borrowed against the equity. Maybe they made some improvements?
Homes don’t have to be listed in the MLS to be foreclosed and auctioned. Banks usually start the foreclosure process after the borrower missed 2 or 3 payments.
It will get listed on MLS if the owner tries to sell before the auction (pre foreclosure) or if the bank gains ownership of the property at the auction and tries to sell it on their own (REO).
This ETF is starting to look attractive. Anyone else out there want to play with fire..
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DCR#chart1:symbol=dcr;range=1y;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined
Richie, who do you use for VOIP?
PGC, I’ve been using Firefox almost exclusively for years now but I still fire up IE to double check sites I build to make sure they work fine.
I just downloaded FF 3.0 Release Candidate 2 yesterday and the performance is really good. Especially sites that use a lot of javascript like gmail and mapping sites.
No land-line for me, not even VOIP. We’re a two cell household.
[163 chifi
Haven’t tried that one. There is another my friends in Philly buy that is excellent but I have to get the name from them.
Essex, I have a bottle of Cragganmore that my sister gave me and it is very good but has a bit of a bite.
Growing up, I never liked scotch, but had only drank blends. Years ago (okay, 26 years ago), when I was at a large state univ. in Western Mass. (definitely not BC), a friend brought me back a bottle of The Balvenie from Scotland. It was unheard of then, so we called my roommate’s brother, who was stationed in Scotland, to find out if it was any good (answer–very good), and some years later when I finally opened it, I became a scotch drinker (when I drink, which isn’t often). Sad thing is that The Balvenie was apparently very cheap to buy in Scotland. My friend should have stocked up.
This coming from someone who couldn’t conceive of a world without the floppy disk.
We have Verizon VOIP and it sucks. That’s my NY attitude for the day.
Cablevision VOIP works fine……
The real storm;
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0606.html
House down the street finally sold….people were asking in the 6’s and it sat for almost a year…..new tenants came from the posh town next door and are downsizing….place is rough…cannot believe how rough. Unreal.
<<<>>>
Nice wsy to say POS
Didn’t copy..i was making a comment on a place being “rough”..
BC,
That beauty has been on the market since 6/23/2005 2 weeks shy of 3 years now. Started at 369,000 and I don’t think you needed a flashlight then.
KL
#243 hardplace: I guess we did not have teenagers looking for jobs last year, or the year before that, or the year before that,and so on, and so on.
What a bunch of doo-doo.
3B
My 16 year old son is working, started the day after volleyball ended.
I don’t think its the low paying jobs that were lost.
KL
Hard Place/Pat/lost – My husband thinks talking to people online is kinda creepy too – and heaven forbid meeting them, they might be rapist axe murderers………. He does like the info though.
Patient – how old are the little Patients? Mine are 6 and 4.
Maybe worth organizing a little kid friendly GTG one time.
Can someone please provide the history, dom, and tax for MLS# 2818561? TIA
I’ve got Vonage VOIP, and I love it…even though it does seem to have a few minor problems playing nice with FIOS.
[314]
‘soosh,
that is a great idea. But it would require a kid-friendly place.
GTG at Chucky Cheese???
I’m unable to post this question under my own name; my identity was compromised at work by an unscrupulous person with both server access and a superior attitude.
Fortunately, only a blogger recognizes personality transparencies.
We are relocating to Maryland. Does any fellow blogger have information about the Germantown/Rockville area, or suggestions for contacts?
GTG at Chucky Cheese???
Can we crash Graydon’s birthday party.
PeaceNow Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:04 pm
I’ve got Vonage VOIP, and I love it…even though it does seem to have a few minor problems playing nice with FIOS.
PeaceNow: I rent the SFH that the old CEO of Vonage used to rent with his family. The stock tanked, his marriage tanked, then they all split up and went back to AZ.
I do have his old Arizona Wildcats regulation basketball he left behind in the garage. I haven’t shot hoops this much in about 20 years.
PGC Says:
June 6th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
“GTG at Chucky Cheese???
Can we crash Graydon’s birthday party.”
Ugh. Can’t count how many parties I have been to there. The noise is ear splitting.
I also discovered a severe aversion to plushies – I don’t like not seeing the wearers face. I know quite a few kids who cower under the table when he comes out.
Did go once just after school and it was absolutely dead – THEN it was kind of cool. Nice and quiet and I was able to comandeer the go-kart racing and plane flying games without any sticky kids staring at me.
how do you get internet svc without a home phone?
Have cable?
Have DSL without a landline? (I thought it was the same price?)
VOIP?
T1???
Chucky Cheese is birth control.
HE (263)-
“400 drop? Where’s the PPT?”
PPT has busted their nut. No more bullets left. Mr. Market is in control now.
Hey BC-
I got into this CNBC contest and started digging into FX. Actually went live mid-week and did a EUR/JPY cross. It made me feel like a BSD for a day…then I bailed on the position.
Anybody catch Gartman on Fast Money today? I hear he was as close to freakout mode as he’s ever likely to come.
john, 172#, you must be a episcipalian!
Man, I wish I was coming to the GTG tomorrow. Instead…two tournament games in 97-degree heat; the second is on turf. I can already feel the sub-turf heating to a point at which it can inject cancer straight into me through the soles of my feet.
The second game is against a bunch of Graydons and Treys, so I think we can squeak through to next week.
Ok, I must’ve missed something… which establishment is the GTG?
And the GTG is Saturday, the 14th, yes?
there are 3 factors contributed to today’s oil spike and equity sell-off: possible israel attack on iran, unemployment rate to 5.5%, and possible obama presidency.
55 & 56 – NJPatient and Essex
Thx
bi [330],
What about Bergabe bending over and getting a french crueller pasted to his sit down.
317…I am pretty sure REM had a song about not going back to Rockville….that’s all I got.
Israel would kick Iran back to the stone age….pure entertainment there…
Clot [324],
It’s the wild, wild west.
Bergabe tried to jawbone the dollar, now the fx world will test his resolve. Another mistake by Ben. Be careful what you wish for, the markets may force it down your throat.
#329 gary,
The Brass Rail in Hoboken. 5 to 7 PM on 6/14.
Sorry for creating the GTG confusion. Thought it was tomorrow, not 6/14.
Shit. Can’t make that one either.
BC (335)-
Wild, Wild West? No kidding. I got all confident and shit toward the end of the day on Wed, and by Thurs AM, I was banging the sell button like a speed freak playing Donkey Kong.
How do you do this every day? For that matter, how do Japanese housewives do this every day?
OT: Back to landline…
I have two old phones (that ring like a fire alarm) and as long as there is analog service I’m keeping my landline.
Besides, if someone breaks in the house it’s nice to have a HEAVY object at hand.
BC-
See the former Fed guv this AM on the tube? He wants a strong dollar, too…although he admitted, ‘I don’t want to see it right now’.
McTeer was that Fed guv’s name.
Richie, who do you use for VOIP?
Vonage; been with them 3 years so far.
Rich: You can still keep those heavy-ringers with VOIP. My VOIP line is wired into house wiring so it’s available in all rooms.
I’d love to goto to the GTG; although once you have one kid you are invited to everyone else’s Bday party.
-Richie
bairen, thanks. Clotpoll, I’m sorry you can’t make it… I had an O’Koren story to tell you.
Richie,
You’re a vast wealth of knowledge!
Are you SURE you’re related to you know who?
Wish you could make,
Rich
Clot [338],
I don’t. I am not as smart as the stay at home, sake mom.
If the fed was serious, they would raise. Hah,Hah. They are now beginning to realize the idiocy of their actions. All they have done is feed the commodity beast and import inflation throughout the world. That’s OK.
They handed this to the market on a silver platter. They can’t prop up asset prices. It’s not/never has been an interest rate issue. The business cycle/market is on its own destructive path. However, Main Street is paying for the fed’s blunder. The fed, prostituting the dollar, has robbed John Q left and right. Welcome to the next bubble, the crack up bubble. Wealth destruction is # 1 on the menu.
Gary [343],
Mike O’Koren?
279, hardplace: snerk. i just told my husband, “Hey, maybe we *could* go to the get-together; one of my favorite posters is bringing *his* kids!” “What, so you can indulge your crush on Randy_H?” “No, no, Randy’s from *zillow*… and in californa. You’re safe.”
otoh, husband works with hot russian girls, so we cut each other slack. :*)
GTG in Hoboken, Grim we could book the basement of the Brass Rail or Fight Club, I will be giving points on clot vs ducky!!!
BC Bob,
Yes, that O’Koren. You’re gonna be there next week? We have to talk about the old ‘hood.
re: #345 BC Bob – As you have been stating for many months now the markets always win, sage advise as good as Grim and others on housing.
If we ever have the pleasure, the first round of top shelf is on me.
How many mini bubble bloggers will be attending? We were planning on bringing our 3 year old to the grandparents, but would be willing to bring him to the GTG if enough short people will be in attendance.
bi – did you ever study French or perhaps Nixon’s administration?
The last thing Israel wants is war, the losses would be massive on both sides.
[url=http://www.watchsalon.ru]Копии швейцарских часов[/url]с доставкой по России!!!
Огромный выбор, высокое качество
Kid friendly GTG – Turtle Back Zoo in West Orange?
alia,
Where does your husband work? Are they hiring? ;-)
“No land-line for me, not even VOIP. We’re a two cell household”
you should do a pubmed search (not Google search) about cell phones and brain tumors.
I think in a few years we will all have auditory nerve & brain tumors on the side of our heads of which we hold our cell phones.
I think the evidence is pointing that way.
SAS
but hey…
that it dosen’t exist.
last time I went through the toll booth, I said, that doesn’t exist.
Maybe I can do that to the IRS.
Tax bill cometh “hey, the IRS dosen’t exist”
hehe
SAS
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mobile_phone_radiation_and_health
u blokes are bringing your kids & grandparents to the GTG?
I’m going to be totally out of place.
Perhaps, I will ask my wife or my daughter to come along w/ me, to make sure I don’t curse, drink too much, or knock a loud mouth off his chair.
;)
SAS
Pat,
you should look at some of the technical scientific data off of pubmed. yikes!
As for me, I have a cell phone, but I really make an effort to use it as little as possible.
Keep in mind too, even when a cell phone is on, its still gives off alot of elctromagnetic radiation.
SAS
gary (343)-
Does your O’Koren story involve a large bong and huge amounts of ganja?
If it does, great. If not, we should get together at some point, and I’ll tell you a few. I lived several doors down from him, and I think I’m living proof of the effects of secondhand dope smoke.
Sean (348)-
I will show up anywhere, anytime to give Duck (Ira) a mouthful of Chiclets. Then, I will turn and leave.
sas (360)-
Radiation is good for you. Stifle, already.
sas
If I make, I dont’ really think so at this point, but if I do, I will also be alone. No one to keep me in my place either. Although, I think I was pretty good last time.
sas
If I make it, I don’t really think so at this point, but if I do, I will also be alone. No one to keep me in my place either. Although, I think I was pretty good last time.
i live in a town house i just found out
one of our units has been leased to 6 college students with 6 leases.
any thoughts this can’t be legal
GSMLS on its way to 37,000
Kettle1 – earlier in the week..
assimilation/dissemination of knowledge:
Personal experience has a way of accelerating the learning curve.
We are catching on pretty quickly here in CA that our house prices have declined. No need to read a newspaper or go online it is all very “in your face.” Just in case you missed it they run nightly TV ads for foreclosure sales.
My exes dad lived through the depression and even though he only had a 9th grade education, he knew how to hold onto a buck.
Fri. – Chicago#286 – Thanks for the Thaler piece.
BC Bob- #306 – “The real storm” That was just plain scary.
Is there any talk of keeping commodities out of hedge funds? Any regulation on the horizon?
Would raising the rates help stem inflation or are we just too out of control?
366 I’d get a video camera and learn at what time the police can be called.