VINDICATION – NJ Q1 Home Sales down 30%

On May 13th, the National Association or Realtors released their first quarter 2008 sales data, which indicated that sales in New Jersey were up 4% year over year. Almost immediately I suspected there was an issue with the data, their published figures didn’t correlate, at all, with the datasets that I actively monitor. The numbers simply didn’t make any sense. While I don’t actively monitor sales throughout the entire state, the areas that I monitor are large enough to be representative of activity across the state. I went on record, shortly after analyzing the data, with my opinion: the published data was wrong. The pundits went on record with positive comments about the health of the New Jersey market:

“Unlike most of the nation, the New Jersey housing market remains stable,” said Drew Fishman, CRS, 2008 New Jersey Association of Realtors (NJAR) president. “Nationally, total sales for single-family homes, condominiums and co-ops dropped by 22 percent from the previous year, while New Jersey was one of three states to show an increase. This is just further evidence that New Jersey does not follow national real estate trends.”

“New Jersey’s housing market continually outperforms other areas of the country,” said Jarrod C. Grasso, RCE, NJAR executive vice president. “The Garden State’s proximity to New York City and Philadelphia, its extensive transportation infrastructure and many other positive market forces contribute to the state’s healthy real estate market.”

The NJAR clearly believed that the NAR published first quarter data was correct, and went on record not with concern that the data might not be accurate, but that it was indeed accurate, and was proof that the New Jersey real estate market was doing well.

Contrast this to my own comments:

Comment posted on May 14th:

grim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:10 am

#26 – I don’t believe the number of sales increased in NJ.

NJMLS, GSMLS and Monmouth/Ocean MLS show steep declines over last year. In addition, the NJ areas that are covered by Prudential Fox and Roach (Philly region) were showing large YOY declines as well.

Where did home sales increase so dramatically in NJ, as to overcome the steep declines seen across the regions I actively monitor?

Sorry, but I don’t buy these numbers, call me a conspiracy theorist if you want. They don’t correlate at all with other published sources.

Comment posted on May 14th:

grim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 9:51 am

The NAR reported numbers are incorrect.

There is no way NJ sales are up 4% from Q1 2007, the data has got to be wrong.

I’m going on record with this statement.

I immediately attempted to contact the NAR to request the data, despite the fact that it would cost me $75 to do so.

Email sent to the National Association of Realtors on May 14th:

from James Bednar
to data@realtors.org
date Wed, May 14, 2008 at 10:08 AM
subject New Jersey Existing Homes Survey Data

Is it possible to request the underlying raw survey data for the New Jersey EHS Series? I have a concern that the most recently reported state EHS numbers for New Jersey do not match what I am seeing at the MLS level. I am a member of a number of state MLS boards, and have access to the county level data from each. The reported increase of 4% from 2007.q1 to 2008.q1 simply doesn’t correlate with the county level data I am seeing.

Is it possible to request the underlying raw data series that this report is based on, for the state of NJ? 2000-Current?

If not, would it be possible to get a list of the NJ MLS systems that participate in the survey, and the reported counts?

Much appreciated,

James Bednar
DRI Real Estate, Inc
NRDS# (redacted)

Comment posted on May 14th:

grim Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 10:15 am

I’ve asked the NAR for the underlying raw survey data for NJ.

If they agree to provide it, it will cost me $75.

The same email was sent on the 15th, 16th, 18th and 19th. I sent the following additional email on the 19th with all the prior requests attached:

from James Bednar
to data@realtors.org

date Mon, May 19, 2008 at 1:26 PM
subject Re: New Jersey Existing Homes Survey Data

To whom it may concern,

Is this the appropriate email address for data requests?

See below.

Thank you,

James Bednar

Email sent to Jeff Otteau on May 14th:

from James Bednar
to Jeffrey Otteau
date Wed, May 14, 2008 at 11:54 AM
subject First Quarter Otteau Report

Jeffrey,

I’m trying to reconcile the Q1 Otteau Reports with the Q1 EHS data released by the NAR yesterday.

According to the data you publish, first quarter sales in NJ were down by double digit percentages, see below:

CountyQ1.2007Q1.2008% change
Atlantic318.7237.3-25.5%
Bergen807.3542.7-32.8%
Camden534.3352-34.1%
Cape May196.3170.3-13.2%
Cumberland42.331-26.7%
Essex426.7330.3-22.6%
Gloucester276204.7-25.8%
Hudson344.3258.3-25.0%
Hunterdon120.3111.3-7.5%
Mercer290.3217.3-25.1%
Middlesex706.7523-26.0%
Monmouth741.3573-22.7%
Morris480.7364.7-24.1%
Ocean751.3562-25.2%
Passaic263.3213.7-18.8%
Salem5131-39.2%
Somerset362.3248.3-31.5%
Sussex167.7125-25.5%
Union365.7270.7-26.0%
Warren108.376.7-29.2%

Likewise, I’m seeing double digit declines on GSMLS:

GSMLS – First Quarter Sales
Bergen,Essex,Hudson,Morris,Passaic,Somerset,Sussex,Union,Warren Counties
SFH, Condo, Coop
2003 – 5619
2004 – 5862
2005 – 5787
2006 – 5573
2007 – 5316
2008 – 3718
Down 30% YOY

And NJMLS:
NJMLS – SFH, Condo, Coop
Closed Sales – Q1
2007 – 2718
2008 – 2002
Down 26%

Contract Sales – Q1
2007 – 3771
2008 – 2784
Down 26%

Any comments? Clearly someone is very, very wrong.

Thanks,
James

Email to Pretorius on May 14th:

from James Bednar
to (Redacted)

date Wed, May 14, 2008 at 10:02 AM
subject Re: NJ home sales

(redacted),

Those numbers can’t be correct, I’m writing the NAR to request the underlying data for the series.

It is going to cost me $75 to ask them the question.

Otteau has Q1 sales down by double digits YOY, NSA for NJ. GSMLS, NJMLS, MOMLS are all showing similar patterns.

In fact, I can find no area in NJ that has shown a YOY increase.

Something is wrong here.

jb

—————————

On May 14th, 15th, 16th, 18th, and 19th, I sent a data request to the NAR for the underlying survey data that is the basis for the quarterly result. They did not acknowledge my requests, nor did they acknowledge my phone calls, despite the fact I’m a Realtor.

—————————

From the Star Ledger:

NJ home sales plunged 30 percent in first quarter

When the National Association of Realtors issued its first-quarter report on the health of the housing market last month, New Jersey was singled out as one of only three states that saw the volume of home sales increase during the first three months of the year.

On Friday, the Realtors’ group issued a huge correction, saying that instead of a slight increase, New Jersey’s housing market actually saw a 30 percent drop in home sales during the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

“It happened in the crunching of the numbers,” said NAR spokesman Lucien Salvant. “It was just a mistake and we owned up to it.”

As it turns out, only 114,100 homes were sold across the state during the first quarter – nearly a third less than the 163,000 sales recorded in the first three months of 2007.

Jeffrey Otteau, president of the East Brunswick research firm Otteau Valuation Group, said he suspected the NAR’s original numbers were out of whack when they were issued May 13.

“When they came out with that report, we turned it inside out and upside down and we couldn’t make any sense of it,” Otteau said.

Based on his own calculations, home sales in New Jersey fell 26 percent during the first quarter of this year compared with the first quarter of 2007.

Otteau said things picked up in April. According to his figures, April home sales increased 9.3 percent from March – the first March-to-April increase since 2005.

“The housing market in New Jersey really is beginning to show signs of improvement, so that is still valid,” he said.

And, according to Otteau’s April calcuations, the average house now sits on the market for 10 months, down from 13 months in January.

The NAR said there were no data-crunching problems with sales figures in other states. In addition, the New Jersey error did not affect home price data. During the first quarter, the median home price for New Jersey was $350,700, down from $361,300 in the first quarter of 2007.

In response to the retraction by the national group, the New Jersey Association of Realtors said sales agents around the state were the first ones to bring the mistake to their attention.

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182 Responses to VINDICATION – NJ Q1 Home Sales down 30%

  1. Jim says:

    YES! The truth is exposed

    JIM

  2. grim says:

    Be there, no excuses. The long-awaited Gold-Coast-Get-Together

    Saturday, June 14th, 2008 at 5pm
    The Brass Rail
    135 Washington St
    Hoboken, NJ 07030

  3. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Foreclosure rate up in county and statewide

    The foreclosure rate jumped in Bergen County and across the state in May, RealtyTrac reported Thursday.

    One in every 685 properties in Bergen County and one in every 467 in New Jersey was in some stage of the foreclosure process in May. In Passaic County, the foreclosure rate was down slightly from May 2007, but the county’s rate remains one of the highest in the state, with one in every 259 properties in foreclosure.

    New Jersey’s foreclosure rate is slightly higher than the national rate, which is one in every 483 properties — the highest level since RealtyTrac began issuing monthly reports in January 2005. The national rate is up 48 percent from a year ago.

  4. Richie says:

    All this data must be wrong. There could be no foreclosures in Bergen county because real estate only goes up there, and YOY sales are 30% above last years.

    bleh

  5. gary says:

    Bergen County’s population is growing by 10% per year and this bubble stuff is a bunch of bullsh*t. A realtor told me that at an open house… so there.

  6. Poser says:

    Good for you Grim!! thanks for being the watchdog that you are.
    I have a couple of realtors, more honest than most, that call me regularly to see if I’m ready to buy again. Next time I talk to one of them, I’m going to ask how the NAR could get the data so inaccurate and why should I look at any statistics they give me.

  7. bairen says:

    Slight increase vs 30% decrease. Simply a rounding error in NAR speak.

  8. bairen says:

    Is the Brass Rail business casual or a t-shirt and jeans place?

  9. gary says:

    bairen [7],

    LOL! That is classic. Dripping with sarcasm, just the way I like it.

  10. grim says:

    This industry is a cabal of crooks and liars.

  11. Stu says:

    REtard in last night’s thread wrote,
    “Tell you what, bring your young azz to the gtg tomorrow and we’ll get this shlt straightened out right quick. I’ve got a lot of people to deal with, but you’re first.”

    Spoken like a true Republican. Either your with us, or against us. Nursery school democracy at its best. See you there tonight. You are more than welcome to join my wife and son at dinner. We would be more than glad to reeducate you.

  12. Grim for Mayor says:

    Excellent work, JB. You truly have done a fantastic job dominating this market. That’s some combination – on the day of the get together, you help expose NAR as a bunch of frauds.

    Keep up the good work, man.

  13. afe says:

    Grim,

    Makes one wonder why the NAR would try this pathetic attempt at spin, 2 years into the crash? I have always been a contrarian. But this kind of analysis from you and others on this board has certainly brought new meaning to the word “spin”.

  14. afe says:

    Just think how this kind of misinformation leads sellers down the wrong path. Unfortunately, the initial NAR report led this seller to think he can sell his place for $30% above Bridgewater’s assessment(which is still too high):

    gsmls 2494534

    assessed:629k
    olp: 949k
    lp: 899k (30% above assessed).

    Try: 603k (-4% below assessed) on for size.

    afe

  15. grim says:

    From Gannett:

    N.J. home sales down 30%

    The number of homes sold in New Jersey in the first quarter of the year fell by 30 percent and didn’t increase as initially reported, a real estate association said Friday.

    The National Association of Realtors has corrected the statistic, released about a month ago, which said that seasonally adjusted annual rate of existing home sales in the state rose by 4 percent in the first quarter, the New Jersey Association of Realtors said.

    The state association was alerted by its members that the statistic “did not appear to be accurate,” said Jarrod Grasso, executive vice president of the New Jersey Association of Realtors, in a statement. It alerted the NAR to find out if the numbers were correct.

    “After closer examination, the National Association of Realtors confirmed that there was an error,” Grasso said. “Instead of a 4 percent boost in sales volume from the first quarter 2007 to the first quarter 2008, New Jersey experienced a 30 percent decline.” Nationally, sales fell by 22 percent, NAR said last month.

    The NAR “is deeply committed to presenting the most accurate statistics and information to the public,” Grasso said. “NJAR has been assured by the National Association of Realtors that steps will be taken to ensure that no incidents like this occur in the future.”

    In a statement, the NRA took full responsibility for the error and said there were no problems with data from other states.

    Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bank, said the correction indicated a “real collapse” in demand in the first quarter and shows the market is soft.

    “How soft it is, or is it as soft as these numbers seem to indicate, is a different question,” Naroff said.

    Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick real estate consulting firm, said it is not unusual for statistics to be revised.

    “The size of this correction is such that this would not represent a refinement of initial results, but obviously is a result of a calculation error or a reporting error,” he said. His firm’s statistics show that sales in New Jersey fell by 26 percent in the first quarter, Otteau said.

  16. James Boyer says:

    I really cannot say anything about the New Jersey real estate market as a whole, but in January, February, & March I found myself to be very busy, then at the end of March and into April still busy but busy with home buyers who were willing to look, but unwilling to make buy decisions. Still seeing most of the buyer interest centered on towns who are on the train line, verses towns that are even just a few miles off of the train line. I guess $4 gas will tend to help that trend even more.

  17. afe says:

    i think i would have a little more faith in otteau if he went on record back in may re this reporting or calculating error. Grim, do you know if Otteau contacted NAR regarding this error?

  18. reinvestor101 says:

    Are kids allowed at this thing tonight? I see Stu-pid is threatening me with his wife and kids. To balance things out, some conservative youth must be brought.

  19. House Hunter says:

    Great work Grim…thanks, the information out there is just schizophrenic. There still may be some entrenchment. A friend of my husband’s put a 10% below asking offer in and they said they were offended and would not even counter. By the way that house was listed last year a 50,000 higher. It went off and came back on this year..who should be offended?

  20. grim says:

    Boyer,

    I’m not sure what being busy means, realize that your own anecdotal universe is only a small portion of the market. I don’t mean that as an insult, mainly because I’m in the same position and I need to keep reminding myself of that.

    I too have been very busy, in fact things are getting so busy that I’ve been turning away clients.

    On another note, I just closed a deal with an associate at your firm.

    But still, I’d caution using your own observations as a proxy for even your local market. Many other factors come into play. Maybe you are just a good agent with a solid network? Not to mention the fact that the chaff is getting shaken out of the market. When there are fewer agents in the pot, the remaining agents may see an increase. That doesn’t mean the number of deals is increasing, only that your share of the universe is.

  21. S.S says:

    Hi All,

    Nice work grim, I ping your page sometimes very early in the morning leaving for work and I can tell you are still in bed ;)

    Can you get hired as a part-time realtor, someone who doesn’t really need office space, PC or phone?

  22. grim says:

    then at the end of March and into April still busy but busy with home buyers who were willing to look, but unwilling to make buy decisions.

    This is where we differ as agents.

    I can almost taste the derision in your comment about buyers “unwilling to make buy decisions.” What you fail to comprehend is the fact that they’ve made their decision, and that decision is to wait.

    I respect the decisions of my clients, while you see it is a problem in yours. My job is to educate and empower buyers to make the right decision, even if that means to wait, while yours is to sell used homes.

    Caveat Emptor.

  23. Hard Place says:

    Great work, Sherlock Holmes!

    You Goliath what David can do with a little data.

  24. Hard Place says:

    should be – “You showed Goliath”

  25. njpatient says:

    This is a big story. If I were the Star Ledger, I’d call you and write it up.

    What a bunch of fraudulent, lying, scumbag shysters

  26. grim says:

    I’m going on record here saying that it was *my* repeated requests for data from the National Association of Realtors that prompted the investigation and discovery of the error. Given the comments made by the NJAR shortly after release, it’s obvious that they had no desire to dispute the data when it was clearly in their favor. Likewise, a reply from Jeff Otteau indicates that he too had no desire to dispute the data, and was happy to spin it positive.

    I made my first request for data/clarification within 24 hours of the release. They would have known of the error after only a few minutes of analysis. My repeated requests were ignored, which indicates to me that they realized the issue, but were not willing to comment.

  27. grim says:

    The story linked is front page, above the fold.

  28. njpatient says:

    “It happened in the crunching of the numbers,” said NAR spokesman Lucien Salvant. “It was just a mistake and we owned up to it.”

    And it only took a month!!!

  29. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    While I read this article in the Ledger this morning, I told my wife that you called them out on this. They threw you a hanging curve, you slammed it out of the park. The ball is still traveling.

    I also can picture Mutombo after a vicious block, waving his fingers. The sheriff is in town. Beware.

  30. afe says:

    haha-just read the line, “sales agents around the state”…umm, are there more grims in the state? where are you?

  31. Fast Eddie says:

    Congratulations on the NAR catch. Yun should go on national TV to explain, from the stocks.
    Keep up the good work.

  32. Gayla says:

    Thank you very much, some of us can handle the truth!

  33. gary says:

    And yet, MSM outlets will continue to quote NAR data as if it were gospel.

  34. 3b says:

    #34 grim: Seriously and I mean this with all sincerity. God Bless you.

    Hope to get to the BRass Rail tonight, Grdauation party, and other logistics to work out.

  35. 3b says:

    #18 realstatediaperwipe: some conservative youth must be brought.

    Talking to yourself again??

  36. SC says:

    I like this last line from the article:

    “In response to the retraction by the national group, the New Jersey Association of Realtors said sales agents around the state were the first ones to bring the mistake to their attention.”

    How may Realtors besides Grim do you think questioned the number? I bet none. Most of the Realtors I meet are mindless.

  37. RayC says:

    Fantastic work Grim. I can’t thank you enough for your work.

    I wish I could be at the Brass Rail to celebrate (especially as a former Hobokenite and Patron. BTW – the best Guinness in Hoboken is at the Nag’s Head – 1st between Clinton & Grand) but the missus and I are taking care of the new 3 week old Jersey Boy in our house, and yes, the missus knows all about how Guinness helps nursing. Happy GTG to all!

  38. RayC says:

    http://promo.realestate.yahoo.com/promo/housing:-itll-get-worse.html

    The bandwagon is getting crowded, the headline – Housing: It’ll get worse.

    Some experts bracing for 50% drops in hard hit cities.

    This is one of the yahoo lead articles, from CNNMoney.

  39. Tom says:

    grim,

    Speaking of foreclosures, a noticed a house that was sold at auction in Bergen County for 20% less than it’s judgment.

    Anyone know more about this house? In 2003 it sold for only $210 then in 2006 for more than double that. Was it a teardown? Is there a new McMansion sitting on that property now?

  40. rhymingrealtor says:

    OMFG!

    Jim,

    That has got to be your best post ever! You are a god in my eyes. I am however easily impressed (-:

    KL

    PS:Be there, no excuses. The long-awaited Gold-Coast-Get-Together

    I had the date
    In a reminder email
    I could’nt wait
    For The Brass rail

    I have an excuse that should get your
    Approval
    An unexpected gallbladder
    Removal

    Sorry I’m missing it!
    I mean the GTG – not the Gallbladder,
    that thing was a major Pain!

  41. victorian says:

    Grim!!! You have been cited on “The Big Picture”!!!

    “James Bednar is Editor of the NJ Real Estate Report — a blog about Garden State realty issues. James is also a realtor, and was rather surprised to learn back on May 13th, that first quarter sales in New Jersey were up 4% year over year. At least, that’s what the National Association of Realtors claimed when they released their first quarter 2008 sales data.

    That didn’t jibe with what James was seeing, so he requested the data from the NAR. Five times — all to no avail. Despite what local realtors were experiencing, both the NAR and the NJAR believed that NJ was improving. Good news and proof of the housing bottom at last! ”

    Great work!!

  42. njrebear says:

    After closer examination, the National Association of Realtors confirmed that there was an error

    +4 to -30, is no error it is a blatant criminal act. These guys should be thrown behind bars.

  43. Tom says:

    “+4 to -30, is no error it is a blatant criminal act. These guys should be thrown behind bars.”

    I was thinking the same thing. I know that some real estate agents around here have been parroting the “real estate is local” line when asked about the BC market. “Because we’re so close to NYC prices won’t go down.”

    What I assumed they really meant was “Please buy, I don’t want to lose my Mercedes.”

    It’s one thing to make vague statements like that, it’s quite another to 34 point error in statistics. I’m with you in thinking it was a willful attempt to hide the truth.

  44. S.S says:

    Internet providers plan to place monthly limits on user activity… Developing…

    on http://www.drudgereport.com

    no link yet

  45. gary says:

    Calculated Risk blog has the story up. Grim, you’re a goddam rock star!!

  46. Seneca says:

    If the NJAR was a publicly trade company, it would be facing a distressed sale at $10 per share right now. NJAR much like NJT(ransit) has zero accountability.

    I guess the excel jockeys over there never bother to sanity check their numbers. These guys/gals would not last a day in the real world.

    Kudos to you James. The public service you provide is invaluable.

  47. Tom says:

    “If they agree to provide it, it will cost me $75.”

    Maybe it was all a ploy to get thousands of people who questioned the data to send them 75 bucks?

  48. NJGator says:

    reTARD – Stu’s wife (me) is a regular poster. Living in Essex County gives our son the opportunity to meet all sorts of young kids, however he has not had the opportunity to interact with many little
    Alex P. Keatons. Bring your midgets along.

  49. BC Bob says:

    Is it possible that BIA works for the NAR? Maybe he just read the chart upside down?

    I think this should be sent to Career Builder. They are seeking new themes for their next Super Bowl, monkeys, commercial.

  50. danzud says:

    Grim,

    I am a long-time reader and a very rare poster. I congratulate you on your persistence for revealing the truth. I would also like to thank you and so many others since I’ve been reading almost daily since 2006 to stop me from pursuing one of the Siena condos in Montclair with the famous no money down and low interest combos always mentioned here.

    You have all saved me so much money and aggravation I would have had if I had listened to everyone else and started the buying process. I wish I could join you at the Brass Rail but have previous plans.

    In the meantime, I’m still renting with a lease up Jan. 1 but I’ll keep reading here. So far, it looks like we have not yet hit the bottom and I can wait for the “Why rent when you can own for less?” ads I saw in the late 90s.

  51. Essex says:

    June 14, 2008 — Heather Mills is about to become a jaded New Yorker.

    The hotheaded, newly rich ex-wife of Sir Paul McCartney who says she’s weary of the London press has just gone to contract to buy a $5 million West Village condo in the glass- enclosed Richard Meier towers at 173 Perry St.

    The seller is Joe Castaldo, head of the Style Council.

    Included in the full-floor pad, with sweeping views of the Hudson, are two bedrooms, two baths, a 40-foot living room/dining area, an open kitchen, two balconies and a private elevator landing.

    The high-tech digs, measuring just over 1,800 square feet, also features floor-to-ceiling windows with temperature-controlled shades and a built-in entertainment system.

    The high-profile doorman building features room service from its Jean George Vongerichten-run restaurant, a fitness center, high security and a 24-hour concierge.

    Buyers there have included Calvin Klein, Nicole Kidman, Martha Stewart (who sold) and Sun Microsystems co-founder William Joy.

    Listing broker Hilary Rovins, of Brown Harris Stevens, would not comment on the sale.

    Another broker, Wilbur Gonzalez, has a $4 million listing on a lower floor, and said that the building “has the cache and amenities to attract a bold-face crowd.”

    —————I THINK THE AUTHOR MEANT OLD FACE CROWD——————–

  52. njpatient says:

    jamil

    The AP reported that Vice President Dick Cheney’s office has acknowledged that “he was mistaken when he asserted that China, at Cuba’s behest, is drilling for oil in waters 60 miles from the Florida coast” — an assertion Cheney took from columnist George Will.

  53. Occasional lurker says:

    As someone probably pointed out already: it’s time for a nation-wide audit of NAR stats and analysis.

    Grim lifted rock and found all sorts of bugs, worms, and other unexpected incredible things.

    I’d be willing to bet that we’d find more such stones out there. I wouldn’t be surprised if the NAR engaged in fraud on a systematic and national level.

    Has the NYTimes reported this yet? They LOVE this sort of thing.

  54. Just me says:

    GRIM WOOOWW WHAT A JOB :)))

    CONGRATS!!!

  55. BC Bob says:

    “I have an excuse that should get your
    Approval
    An unexpected gallbladder
    Removal”

    KL [40],

    Get well soon. I know Hudson County, Jersey Girls bounce back quick. I’m married to one.
    All the best girl.

  56. lostinny says:

    Grim you are the man! What fantastic work. Those bastards should be questioned on every bit of data they put out. Bastards!
    Unfortunately, I don’t think I’m going to make the gtg tonight. I hope you all have a great time!

  57. lostinny says:

    KL

    I hope you have a quick recovery!

  58. scribe says:

    Ok,

    I’m off to find Hoboken.

    If I don’t make it, please issue an APB with the Jersey State Police:

    Female, senior citizen, last seen wearing tye-dye. Looks like a refugee from the 60′s. May be wandering the waterfront in Hoboken looking for “grim.”

  59. Everything's 'boken says:

    just arrived at gtg lots of fire engines rolling due to a thunderstorm

  60. Pat says:

    Good data is good data. Maybe somebody from NAR can come here and own up to what happened. Data manipulation a.k.a. “error” may not always be the real story…it’s how you get there.

    I wish I could be at the gtg. Fonziegirl would love to hang with the minire’s.

    We’re cruising ctl MD. Weirdly friendly people down here.

    Have fun.

  61. Joeycasz says:

    Lil’ pizza place called Hoboken Pizza is my personal fav pizza in NJ. Can’t make it today but if i could i’d be stopping there first :)

  62. rhymingrealtor says:

    Call me crazy, but to all you folks going to the GTG tonight. Please keep an eye out for Grim and & Mrs. Grim if she comes. This post here today is making him a target. He’s gonna be too close to the Hudson river for comfort.

    Have fun, but stay on your toes !

    KL

  63. PGC says:

    Trying to get Mrs PGC out the door for the gtg (minus kids). We’ll be late, but should be there at some point.

  64. njpatient says:

    “After closer examination, the National Association of Realtors confirmed that there was an error,” Grasso said. “Before, when we stood further away and squinted, it looked like sales had improved, but now we know it’s an epic disaster and we all just want to curl up and die.”

  65. richinnnj says:

    Great reading for the train ride down!

    Heading in from Westwood, arrive at 5:30.
    I’ll be quite impressed if RE101 shows. I’ll keep my eye out for someone with an American flag draped over their shoulders.

  66. njpatient says:

    22 grim

    “I respect the decisions of my clients, while you see it is a problem in yours. My job is to educate and empower buyers to make the right decision, even if that means to wait, while yours is to sell used homes.”

    BANG!!!!

  67. pricesstillskyhigh says:

    Great work Grim!! Keep up the good work! Sorry can’t make it to the GTG!

  68. njpatient says:

    26 GRIM

    “Likewise, a reply from Jeff Otteau indicates that he too had no desire to dispute the data, and was happy to spin it positive.”

    I’m shocked! SHOCKED!!

    I would NEVER have guessed that Otteau was a shill for the shysters.

    If you kicked the crap out of him, he’d be invisible.

  69. lostinny says:

    67 Patient

    He doesn’t need a beating. He needs a lynching!

  70. still_looking says:

    mr and mrs still looking are coming – but will be late… I woke up wayyyyy late –

    had a bad, bad night shift!

    sl

  71. All Hype says:

    still_looking:

    I just left you a voice mail on your cell.

  72. grim says:

    Almost there! Sitting in traffic. Where did this rain come from

  73. njpatient says:

    27 grim
    “The story linked is front page, above the fold.”

    I was referring to the non-responsiveness of the NAR and Otteau to requests from a Realtor and the fact that they were presented with, and actively ignored, the correct information for a month.

  74. njpatient says:

    41 victorian

    Now THAT’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout!!

  75. Everything's 'boken says:

    so far we have the gators, gary, rich byron, rpatrick. good turnout

  76. lostinny says:

    Hi Gary and everyone!

  77. njrebear says:

    It will be funny if re101 turns out to be a mega bear.

  78. D says:

    *waving* to you all! Fantastic job uncovering the “error,” Jim. Super impressive & deserves a drink!
    We’re off to a moved-inside-due-to-thunderstorms beach picnic. An annual event we all look forward to or I’d visit you all, too! Have FUN, Keep Jim safe! & Be careful on the way home. :)
    KL, feel better!

  79. Tom says:

    You guys do realize that since you’re all sitting together at the same bar, you don’t have to keep posting here to communicate right?

    :)

  80. Nom Deplume says:

    Grim,

    Great work. Sorry I missed the GTG. I actually got close but

    –my realtor, who was 30 min. late, “had just one more house to show me’, then
    –it was detours in Cranford, then
    –the &$#@ PATH was delayed, then
    –the !%$&? RAIN coming down in buckets (and me with no umbrella).

    Love you man, but I wasn’t about to get soaked, and being superstitious, I decided all these bad omens were enough, so I got back onto PATH and headed out.

    Will try to make the next one–any thoughts to Brigadoon or Summit???

  81. lisoosh says:

    Not to be a real estate bore but…

    Down here, Central NJ, Brunswicks etc. I am seeing listing price drop like stones and nothing is moving.

    Development that went to $400+, seeing listing now of sub $300 (friend who lives there and told me it would “never drop before $400 again can’t be pleased).
    New development listings have dropped from $700+ to $550. Another luxury development which at the peak saw sales of $850k, now seeing listings in the mid $600′s.
    Around the corner from me, the older homes are frequently listed below the previous sale price and they aren’t exactly hopping off the shelves either.

    When this stuff finally moves, there will be some outstanding new comps in the region. And not a moment too soon.

  82. bob2009 says:

    lisoosh, thank you for sharing with us your observation of central NJ around brunswick. Would you mind telling us any sources for house information of central NJ? Really appreciate your help.

  83. lisoosh says:

    bob – not sure what you are asking for. I just track a few representative and homogenous developments on Realtor and on the GSMLS.

  84. rhymingrealtor says:

    Oh come on, can’t you guys blog from Hoboken, it’s saturday night, Im bored, unable to resume my ususal active ( yeah right) lifestyle… come on guys, blog from your cells…

    KL

  85. chicagofinance says:

    sorry…Hudson Tea condo…

  86. Stu says:

    Gators made it home safely. I hope Prius’ can float. Our Xterra was like a cruise ship through the flooded out streets of Hoboken. Glad to see you all there!

  87. Stu says:

    Oh yeah,

    REtardinvestor forgot to show again. What a turkey.

  88. bob2009 says:

    To #82
    lisoosh, I got it. Thanks.

  89. njpatient says:

    87 stu

    pity he didn’t show up with the Hi…er…the conservative youth.

  90. Tom says:

    They mentioned it on Fox 5 news. No credit to grim though :(

  91. scribe says:

    ok, report from the gtg:

    grim is taller than I thought

    BC Bob & Mrs., Bairen, Rich in NNJ, Everything’s broken, Gary, Stu with wife and young’un, still_looking and hubby, BrooklynHawk, Commanderbobnj & missus, R Patrick, Dan, Sybarite …but no REinvestor … :)

  92. reinvestor101 says:

    I had every intention of showing up so I could deal with you and the rest of the terrorists, but life happened (one of the kids got sick) and I couldn’t make it. Believe me, I was dying to get there and face some of you down. What was the turnout like? Post some damn pictures.

    Stu Says:
    June 14th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
    Oh yeah,

    REtardinvestor forgot to show again. What a turkey.

  93. reinvestor101 says:

    That’s less than 10 people. How many people showed up. Hell, I would have been looking for a whole damn room full. Did 3bonehead show up? Did you steal the toilet tissue?

    scribe Says:
    June 14th, 2008 at 10:47 pm
    ok, report from the gtg:

    grim is taller than I thought

    BC Bob & Mrs., Bairen, Rich in NNJ, Everything’s broken, Gary, Stu with wife and young’un, still_looking and hubby, BrooklynHawk, Commanderbobnj & missus, R Patrick, Dan, Sybarite …but no REinvestor … :)

  94. scribe says:

    ah, gee, it looks like I missed the gators!

  95. scribe says:

    It’s ok, reinvestor

    We *knew* you wouldn’t show :)

    We had a very pleasant gtg :)

  96. Crash99 says:

    Hi all,
    I rarely post here, but I’ve been reading this blog for over a year while I am trying to time the market the best I can. I look at listing prices on trulia.com then compare them to what is provided on zillow.com and city-data.com. Trulia and other real estate websites sometimes leave off the address of the home for sale. Does anyone know why that is? Also, is there anyway to get the address other than just driving around the town till the picture matches the house? I have the mls # if anyone can help. Love the site, keep up the great work!

    The mls# 4954199 is a house in Allentown, Monmouth County, NJ

  97. scribe says:

    From HousingPanic:

    Cheers to James at the NJ Report for taking the NAR to task.

    Monkeys I tell ya. Monkeys.

    Never to be used again. Never to be trusted again.

    NJ home sales plunged 30 percent in first quarter

    When the National Association of Realtors issued its first-quarter report on the health of the housing market last month, New Jersey was singled out as one of only three states that saw the volume of home sales increase during the first three months of the year.

    On Friday, the Realtors’ group issued a huge correction, saying that instead of a slight increase, New Jersey’s housing market actually saw a 30 percent drop in home sales during the first quarter compared with the same period last year.

    Posted by keith at 6/14/2008 3 comments Links to this post

  98. Tom says:

    So nobody has any info on 623 Freeland Ave, Paramus, NJ

    With all the people on here I woulda thought someone might have lived nearby or had seen it.

    Anyone know if it’s still the small little house or if it was rebuilt?

  99. scribe says:

    Tom,

    People are probably still out at the gtg.

    Tomorrow will be better for responses.

  100. bairen says:

    Was fun meeting everyone. Too bad 101, 3b, njpatient, and some of the other regulars couldn’t make it. We did have a few lurkers too.

  101. gary says:

    bairen,

    Here’s how f*cking stupid I am: I didn’t realize until after I left that you were “bairen” and not “Barron”. OMG! I was thinking, “geez, I can’t quite remember seeing ‘Barron’ post on the blog.” What a jackass I am. LOL!!

  102. bairen says:

    gary

    I’m just happy you are not a postal worker.

    :)

  103. BC Bob says:

    Had a blast. Great to meet all. Damn streets in JC flooded. Sky high taxes in Hudson County, not going to infrastructure. All agreed, Bergabe is out of his league. SL should slice his head, remove his depression brain cramp.

    Spreads widening, except for debt/equity. The debt remains, the equity goes poof. Spreads will tighten for the next 3 years.

    Gary needs a 2×4, across the head, 2-3 times a week. Rich NNJ actually thought I was 50.5. Yikes. That’s OK Rich, BC Jane passed on a secret. My lips are sealed.

  104. Tom says:

    So I’m curious. Others might already know, but is grim a Realtor® or just a real estate agent?

    Not that it matters.

  105. PGC says:

    Had a great time tonight. It was nice to put some faces to names. I meant to discuss poker with the Gators but maybe next time. Sorry we had to bail early, Mrs PGC needed to eat and get off her swollen feet.

  106. Hobokenite says:

    Congrats Grim.

    Sorry I couldn’t make the GTG. Too busy traveling.

  107. timmy says:

    they’ve lied to us all the way back since WWI. We duped into anything we read in the mainstream media which is paid off by the powers that be….get out of this country while you still can…..

    check this out….awww.globalpolicy.org/security/oil/2002/1000history.htmre

  108. gefilte says:

    Grim,

    We closed on house. Many thanks for you helping us keep the faith of the coming decline in price despite my spouse’s eagerness to buy. We paid over 20% less than original asking. (same town as you) Last year the stuff we saw in the same price range was substancially inferior.

    Not surprising along with my new homeownership status I’m less bearish on housing.

    Many thanks and good luck.
    Gefilte

  109. timmy says:

    more brilliant stuff by a comedian…sad to see comedians people who are supposed to be funny and make us laugh are now the only ones who tell the truth….

    video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5267640865741878159

  110. SG says:

    Sorry missed the GTG this time. Family emergency event kept me busy, I was really looking forward to meeting y’all.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    “If they agree to provide it, it will cost me $75.”

    What do you want to bet the price is going way up now?

  112. Richie says:

    Next GTG should be at Chuck E Cheese’s so my kid has something to do…

    -R

  113. bairen says:

    #114 Richie,

    Someone suggested Turtle Back Zoo a week or so ago. That would work for us.

  114. lostinny says:

    I’m really disappointed I couldn’t go last night. I’m really hoping I can make the next one.

  115. RentL0rd says:

    Hi folks,

    I was at the first GTG and it was fun. Couldn’t make it this time..

    I haven’t posted anything here in ages and haven’t been as actively reading as I used to.

    Sold my house and happily renting.
    So happily renting that I dont care about housing anymore.

    cheers all!

  116. IVV says:

    What are people’s thoughts about the pros and cons of living in towns in the West Essex/East Morris area? We’re looking seriously at a few homes clustered in Montclair, Glen Ridge, Chatham, Madison, Denville, and Mountain Lakes. Are there any other towns in the area you like?

  117. Cooper says:

    I have ONE word for NJAR/NAR…
    FIDUCIARY.

  118. njpatient says:

    REO101
    Yeah – you were going to show up until you heard that they weren’t giving the drinks and burgers away for free.

  119. scribe says:

    Does anyone have access to the Middlesex MLS?

    I’m curious about this one: MLS# 818439.

    New construction. I’m pretty sure the original asking price was around $649,000, more than a year ago. I know it got bumped down to $595,555, and towards the end of ’07, it disappeared from the MLS. Re-appeared around May 1 around $565,000. Now it’s down to $529,900.

    The house is clearly occupied, going by the photos in NJMLS. But I can’t find any record of a sale in-between. I also can’t find a record of the old house that was sold for demolition. But I think the old house sold for slightly more than $300,000.

  120. njpatient says:

    So sad I missed scribe, BC Bob, Bairen and Rich in NNJ

    Next time!!!!!!

  121. BklynHawk says:

    Great to meet you all at the GTG last night. Trip back to Brooklyn was pretty uneventful.

    BTW, if anyone’s missing a Blackberry cover, I saw it on the bar at the end of the night after pretty much everyone was gone. Let me know and we’ll work out a way to get it back through Grim.

    Can’t wait ’til the next GTG!

  122. HEHEHE says:

    As always, good work Grim!

    Sorry did not make the GTG. Friend had a BBQ, albeit a very wet BBQ.

    No excuses next time.

  123. HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    Wow a few months back a short sale in Maxwell and now a lis pendens in Hudson Tea. Maybe that’s what Toll meant by “we’re killing em in Hoboken?”

  124. RentinginNJ says:

    Sorry I could’t make it last night. I had a death in the family. Hopefully next time.

  125. njcoast says:

    Hey, Happy Father’s Day to all you Baby-Daddies.

  126. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: NAR

    This ain’t calculus. It’s one number as a percentage of another number. That’s what….4th grade math? It’s tragic and funny all at the same time, to see a National Organization’s credibility take such a nose-dive. Their future press releases will be treated with the same skepticism as good ol’ Baghdad Bob’s.

    To Tom, looking for the current view of that house on Freeland Ave in Paramus………try Google Earth and see if the satellite gives you a good photo.

  127. Sybarite says:

    Renting,

    Sincerest condolences.

  128. "We gave you a month says:

    to smoke that weed we were promoting. If you didn’t make money selling houses to the greater fools, then shame on you….”

    (extract from What NAR Did and Why)

  129. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE Says:
    June 15th, 2008 at 10:49 am
    Chi, Wow a few months back a short sale in Maxwell and now a lis pendens in Hudson Tea. Maybe that’s what Toll meant by “we’re killing em in Hoboken?”

    he: the lis pendens was one of the first non-inside buyers at the HTB. My thought at the time was WTF is this guy doing….but I was shouted down by the Toll sales/realtor/owner masses…..feels very much like the treatment I received in January 2000.

  130. HEHEHE says:

    Chi,

    Perhaps its not the exclusive locale Toll thinks it is!

  131. BC Bob says:

    A book with 4 chapters, a play with 5 acts, a movie, begins as a comedy ends a tragedy. Same story, same outcome.

    “The housing bubble, in four chapters”

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25169510/

    Happy Fathers Day to all.

    Renting,

    Sorry to hear. My condolences.

  132. scribe says:

    Renting,

    My condolences.

  133. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    From the MSNBC story…..here’s all you need to know about the sub-prime mess:

    “On the day of the mortgage settlement, she arrived alone. Her boyfriend was on a business trip, she said, but she had his power of attorney. Informed that for this kind of loan he would have to sign in person, she broke into tears: Her boyfriend actually had been serving a jail term.”

    And they funded the loan anyway!!!!

    Today, borrowers with 20% down and 720 FICOs are made to jump thru flaming hoops. Often these borrowers are told they do not qualify.

  134. skep-tic says:

    Grim– massive props to you for exposing this. Here is the tragic thing: almost no mainstream media outlet will even question these crooks unless the evidence is absolutely undeniable since real estate ads are perhaps the only thing keeping most newspapers in business at this point. Who knows how long this has been going on and how many times they have purposely tried to mislead the public.

  135. Tom says:

    Fiddy Cents,

    I looked at all the onlne maps, couldn’t really tell much. The maps aren’t always up to date

    I was going to use this one as an example http://www.bergenjerseyforeclosures.com/bjf/PropertyDetail?id=367

    Last week it was showing up as an empty lot with a bulldowser on it but there was a craigslist by the guy that bought it at auction trying to sell it for 380k that showed it as a new side of a duplex.

    I looked at it today and the map seems to have been updated.

    The satellite images are just a reference.

    I found another photo online for the house that recently sold at auction and it looked to be the same house as on the map, but that might have been outdated as well.

    Still seems like a lot for that house.

  136. HEHEHE says:

    Renting,

    missed your post, sorry to hear about your loss.

  137. afe says:

    For any of you monmouth county buyers:

    Comp killer in Marlboro NJ

    MLS ID# 20804272
    LP: 863k
    bought for 995k in Oct, 2005
    Toll brothers

  138. Essex says:

    136. Banks are notoriously as short sighted as their customers.

  139. baghdad bob says:

    #129 Fiddy,

    “Their future press releases will be treated with the same skepticism as good ol’ Baghdad Bob’s.”

    I resent that. Please do not associate my good name with NAR. You might damage my credibility.

  140. rhymingrealtor says:

    Dear Renting,

    I am sorry to hear of your loss, my condolences to you and your family

    KL

  141. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Bob!!!

    I didn’t mean any of that literally, I was just trying to come up with a good analogy for Press Releases that usually need further verification.

    How are things going with your new job as spokesperson for the National Association of Home Builders??

  142. lostinny says:

    Renting
    I’m sorry for your loss.

  143. Rich In NNJ says:

    I had a blast meeting everyone last night as well!
    I haven’t been out of the house in so long I “flew out of the gate”. Next time I’ll be sure to eat BEFORE the next GTG…

    Big thanks to Mr. & Mrs. Still Looking for the ride home! You saved me at least 1 1/2 hours!
    Besides, because I had my head in a book on the way in, I got off the train in Secaucus. Hate to see where I would end up after gin, bourbon and cachaca! I don’t know how Brooklyn Hawk does it…
    THANKS AGAIN!

    Rich NNJ actually thought I was 50.5. Yikes. That’s OK Rich, BC Jane passed on a secret. My lips are sealed.

    Well, that was quite the entrance you made. It threw me off guard (or on guard)!
    Thanks for keeping it “mum”, though after calling you RE101, I don’t deserve the discretion.

    Hmmm, a Bergen County GTG next?

  144. scribe says:

    Fiddy,

    Do you have access to the Middlesex MLS?

    If so, can you look back at my No. 122?

  145. scribe says:

    Rich,

    How about a “roast” for RE101?

    A time and place where he can absolutely, positively make it …

    And, then, when he doesn’t show, we’ll roast him in absentia!

    Now that I’ve discovered those tasty Yuenlings :)

  146. Tom says:

    I did some more digging and found some more foreclosures that sold at auction in Bergen County for less than the judgment.

    In one case, it was just over 40% off the judgment.

  147. Frank says:

    Heeeeeee Heeeeeeeee

    Goldman Sachs may axe 3,200 workers
    Financial Mail
    15 June 2008, 11:41am
    Goldman Sachs, Wall Street’s biggest investment bank, is expected to axe up to 10% of its workforce, even though financial results on Tuesday are expected to show it has managed to escape almost unscathed from the credit crunch.

    In March, the bank admitted that net income had fallen to £750m from £1.6bn in the first three months of 2007 and chief executive Lloyd Blankfein said market conditions were difficult.
    Financial Mail understands that the company will jettison more employees than usual – 5% is the average yearly wastage – in order to be able to cherry-pick the best talent available at some of its rivals.

    Taking action to slim down its 32,000 workforce allows Goldman to cut some of its costs as well as to swoop on star performers at competing institutions who may be under threat or looking to move in response to a poorer than expected annual bonus.

    Last year, Goldman Sachs bucked the trend on Wall Street after it emerged that it made a $4bn (£2bn) profit from betting on the collapse of America’s subprime mortgage industry while key rivals such as Citigroup and Merrill Lynch made multi-billion dollar losses on investments in high-risk home loans.

    It is understood that despite the imminent cull, the group expects its overall headcount to increase this year.

  148. njpatient says:

    Renting, I’m sorry for your loss.

  149. njpatient says:

    Agenda item:

    Plan next GTG!!

  150. njpatient says:

    “Hmmm, a Bergen County GTG next?”

    Not on Sunday, right?

  151. SG says:

    Martin Sullivan resigns amid subprime losses

    NEW YORK (Reuters) – American International Group (AIG.N: Quote, Profile, Research) Chief Executive Martin Sullivan on Sunday bowed to investor demands, stepping down in the face of increasing calls for his departure, as losses from risky subprime mortgage investments mounted.

    AIG installed Robert Willumstad, a former Citigroup Inc executive, to replace Sullivan.

    Sullivan’s departure, after only three years on the job, comes after AIG in February and May posted two consecutive quarters of record losses, stemming from about $20 billion (10.2 billion pounds) in write-downs in the market value of assets linked to subprime mortgages, tarnishing Sullivan’s reputation.

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether the insurer overstated the value of these investment contracts, held by a financial products unit.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc06/idUKN1335612520080615

  152. reinvestor101 says:

    scribe Says:
    June 15th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
    Rich,

    How about a “roast” for RE101?

    A time and place where he can absolutely, positively make it …

    And, then, when he doesn’t show, we’ll roast him in absentia!

    Now that I’ve discovered those tasty Yuenlings :)

    Roast my azz.

    You have no idea of how anxious I am to confront you damn terrorists to your faces. If my kid hadn’t got sick, I would have dealt with all of you. BC Bob, you ought to be damn proud to have been mistaken for yours truly.

    NJPantywaist, being cheap is 3bonehead’s thing. I expect to pay for my stuff while he, undoubtedly, would have raided the damn bathroom for toilet tissue.

    There’ll be a next time and I expect to be there when there is. You can bet on it.

  153. SG says:

    NEW YORK, June 13 (UPI) — The U.S. government is getting dubious information about subprime mortgages from the banking industry, the comptroller of the currency said.

    John Duggan said regulators need accurate information on how many borrowers are being assisted and how many are facing foreclosure, The Washington Post reported.

    http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2008/06/13/Comptroller_Data_on_mortgages_lacking/UPI-94251213332129/

  154. reinvestor101 says:

    Also, these damn gtg’s need to be in a more westerly direction. Bergen is east. Hoboken is east. Mix the damn thing up but keep it nothern.

  155. Thomas Lawler says:

    I believe the NAR has a problem with Indiana home sales as well. I track the 13-county metropolitan indianapolis area, as well as lake and porter county and tbe area covered by the fort wayne county association of realtors. Combined, those areas suggest a double-digit drop in home sales from Q1/07 to Q1/08. Yet the NAR data show an 11.4% GAIN! I can state with a fair degree of confidence that home sales in Indiana in Q1/08 were not up from Q1/07!!!!

  156. Tom says:

    According to what I read, there were 3 states that were listed as being positive. NJ was debunked. Hopefully people check the other 2. Heck double check them all.

  157. Pat says:

    They must have an intern doing this stuff.

    No, wait, I take that back. The intern is actually competent, but was on vacation and the marketing guy who was covering for the intern dropped the only notebook that had all the data.

    The hardware guy was over at Circuit City looking for a couple of cables, so the IT chick who handles all the old databases took a look at the computer. Then the HR guy stopped by because nobody got their timesheets in on time last week and he also lost his list of passwords. He suggested they simply get out the old paper notebooks they used to use for the stats.

    Unfortunately, nobody could read the paper data anymore, so they accidentally pulled 2003 v 2002 and there you go.

  158. njpatient says:

    158 Tom

    “According to what I read, there were 3 states that were listed as being positive.”

    I was thinking the same thing. Terrible shortage of grims.

  159. njpatient says:

    157 Lawler

    Call your local newspapers?

  160. Tom says:

    Ok, I’m new here, so still trying to catch up. I read on NJ Heloc Heaven that grim became an re agent because of what he saw when he was blogging about the local bubble.

    Is there a post that gives more history? Does he actually sell real estate?

  161. Stu says:

    NYC Housing Market Showing Cracks – Barron’s

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/81407-nyc-housing-market-showing-cracks-barron-s

    “In fact, Barry Ritholtz calls in to question all national data reportage. He wrote Saturday that the National Association of Realtors is either willfully misrepresenting statistics, or grossly negligent in their data gathering.”

  162. Tom says:

    I think NAR is hoping Hanlon’s razor will keep them out of trouble.

    “Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.”

    Sometimes it really is just malice.

  163. Pat says:

    Tom, who would be so obscenely malicious and egotistical that s/he expected nobody would pick up on this big of an error?

    Oh, wait, that describes a lot of people from our fearly leader to my dry cleaner.

    O.K., maybe it was just another run-of-the-mill crazy who happens to be in charge.

  164. Pat says:

    fearless

  165. njpatient says:

    116 bairen

    Turtle Back Zoo would be great. The Patients are members. Mrs. Patient and I drink Sauvignon Blanc out of iced tea bottles in the picnic area.

  166. njpatient says:

    Happy father’s day, dads.

  167. njpatient says:

    162 Tom

    Grim acts as an RE agent, and as far as I know represents both buyers and sellers. He can speak for himself (obviously), so I’ll let him do so, but I’ll add that his particular business model is that he actually represents his cients’ interests. Very odd behavior. He’s also … whaddayacallit … competent.

  168. njpatient says:

    “Sometimes it really is just malice.”

    Where the NAR is concerned, I think it’s now clear that that should be the general assumption.

  169. Clotpoll says:

    tard (18)-

    “To balance things out, some conservative youth must be brought.”

    Big diff between conservative youth and Hitlerjungen, Tard. Hope you didn’t inflict your spawn on unwitting victims last night.

  170. Clotpoll says:

    patient (170)-

    I’m a NAR member, and I haven’t trusted them for years. Why should the public?

  171. Clotpoll says:

    BC (55)-

    “I know Hudson County, Jersey Girls bounce back quick.”

    BC, I think they replaced kl’s gallbladder with a Spaldeen.

    Get well, kl.

  172. Clotpoll says:

    sg (153)-

    Damn, all the fun stuff happens while I’m away:

    “AIG installed Robert Willumstad, a former Citigroup Inc executive, to replace Sullivan.”

    Perhaps Mr. Willumstad will bring some of Chuck Prince’s battle-tested techniques to the operations of AIG.

  173. Tom says:

    172. Clotpoll.

    Because the public doesn’t know any better. We just see the commercials and think “oh gee, I better make sure I go to a RealtorTM and not just a regular real estate agent because the commercial said… well… uhm… well they paid for a commercial so it must be important”.

    I mean NAR is a big organization which requires that RealtorsTM follow a strict code of ethics. Which is why NAR put out TV commercials starting in Jan 07 letting people know that it was a good time to buy. If they didn’t do that, us simple folk might have been worried that there might have been a housing crisis.

    And in 2006, when sales were already slowing, and I was asked to tag along with a family member house shopping, her RealtorTM would never have said things like “this town won’t be affected because of the proximity to NYC”.

    NAR should make their agents wear bright yellow, no that’s taken, red jackets so we all know who we can trust.

  174. Clotpoll says:

    Tom (175)-

    The heads of NAR should be wearing orange jumpsuits and playing 1,000,000-point gin games in Leavenworth.

    Don’t even get me started on the donations, lobbying and Congressional vote-buying…which is where virtually all our dues go.

  175. Tom says:

    “The heads of NAR should be wearing orange jumpsuits and playing 1,000,000-point gin games in Leavenworth.”

    That sounds more like it. I shouldn’t be generalizing so much about realtors. But NAR and some members make aren’t good for the good RE pros like you seem to be.

  176. VJ says:

    Great Work Grim, you are the real hero of many people visiting this blog every second.

  177. James Boyer says:

    “This is where we differ as agents.

    I can almost taste the derision in your comment about buyers “unwilling to make buy decisions.” What you fail to comprehend is the fact that they’ve made their decision, and that decision is to wait.

    I respect the decisions of my clients, while you see it is a problem in yours. My job is to educate and empower buyers to make the right decision, even if that means to wait, while yours is to sell used homes.”

    There was no derision in my comment, I fully respect the decisions of my clients, all I ask of them is that they be upfront and honest with me, as I am sure most REALTORS wish of their clients.

    I am still having a good year, best year in two years actually, but as was said earlier I am sure there are lots of REALTORS getting out of the business and as such as home buyers need help there are fewer of us to choose from.

    I just hope that many of these REALTORs who are getting out of the business are the part-timers and general dead wood which tend to give us all a bad name with the general public.

    I hope you will not be so quick to try to read my mind in the future as so far the attempt was not so good.

  178. Wow, what a bunch of lying bastards. That’s too much of a stretch to go from -30% to 4%, and they thought they could pull it off unnoticed.

  179. Jack says:

    Grimm, many thanks for the heads up on the lies being told. I was looking at real estate in Ocean city this past weekend and was told to buy now!! Agent said the bottom of market if at all was short lived and on it’s way up. She says that Philly & NYC will continue to buy and come to the shore like the lemmings they have always been. Her words not mine. What are your thought’s ? and any other posters who have opinions.