April S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index

Data geeks can find the underlying index data at the following S&P link:

April 2008 S&P Case Shiller HPI (XLS)

From Reuters:

Home prices extend record slide in April: S&P

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. home prices extended their record slide in April, with every top metropolitan area now posting annual losses and many showing double-digit declines, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index report on Tuesday.

From Bloomberg:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Fell 15.3% in April, Index Shows

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell in April by the most on record, signaling the housing recession is far from over, a private survey showed today.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 15.3 percent from a year earlier, less than forecast, after a 14.3 percent decline in March. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The group began keeping year-over-year records in 2001.

Mortgage defaults and foreclosures are adding to the glut of properties on the market, while stricter loan rules are making it more difficult for prospective buyers to get financing. The prolonged real-estate slump, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is taking a toll on consumers and the economy.

“The weakness in prices is going to persist,” Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics LLC in Pepper Pike, Ohio, said before the report. “The mindset has yet to change. We’ll be looking at year-over-year declines in home prices well into 2009.”

Home prices decreased 1.4 percent in April from a month earlier after a 2.2 percent decline in March, the report showed. The figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal effects, so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month to month.

The index was forecast to fall 16 percent from a year earlier, after a previously reported 14.4 percent drop in the 12 months ended in March, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from declines of 15.4 percent to 17 percent.

From CNBC:

US Home Prices Continue Record Declines in April

U.S. home prices extended their record slide in April, with every top metropolitan area now posting annual losses and many showing double-digit declines, according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price index report.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metro areas fell 1.4 percent in April from March and slumped by a record 15.3 percent over the year.

Economists expected prices for the 20-city index to fall 2.0 percent in the month and 15.9 percent from April 2007, according to the median forecast in a Reuters survey.

S&P said its composite index of 10 metro areas slid 1.6 percent in April for a record 16.3 percent annual drop.

Home prices in a dozen of the metro areas have fallen for eight straight months.

From the WSJ:

Great Depression Home-Price Declines

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, which reflects prices in 20 U.S. cities, is expected Tuesday to be reported down 16% in April from a year earlier, worse than March’s 14.4% decline.

“Most of the severe price declines are appearing now,” says Mark Zandi, of Moody’s Economy.com, who says house prices are down nationwide about 15% from their 2006 peak. With heavy inventory still to plow through, “I expect prices, when all is said and done, will be down about 25% this time next year,” he says. That skid off the peak would rank it on par with the Great Depression.

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Consumer Confidence in June Probably Fell to 15-Year Low

A report from S&P/Case-Shiller at 9 a.m. may show house prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas plunged 16 percent in April from a year earlier, the most since records began in 2001, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed. Forecasts ranged from declines of 15.4 percent to 17 percent.

From Forbes:

On the Watch: Home Prices

On Tuesday, two indexes measuring the change in home prices in April are likely to show declines, as a glut of unsold homes continues to pressure the struggling market.

The March Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city index showed home prices tumbling 14.4 percent in the month to the lowest level since the index was started in 2001.

Press release and datasets can be found at Standard & Poor’s:

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

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368 Responses to April S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index

  1. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    U.S.-Backed Mortgage Program Fuels Risks
    FHA Struggles To Eliminate Loans For Zero Down
    By NICK TIMIRAOS
    June 24, 2008; Page A1

    Mortgages that allow consumers to put little if any money down when buying a home have largely disappeared as a financing option available from private lenders. But they are still available — and growing more popular — through a government-backed program.

    That’s raising concerns among critics who blame no-money-down mortgages for many of today’s housing market woes. And while federal housing officials are moving to end the practice, for now home builders are promoting the programs to move unsold inventory.

    “I just smell a massive taxpayer burden coming,” says Sen. Christopher Bond (R., Mo.), who calls the programs “too good to be true.”

    The offers — including “100% financing” — are made possible due to down-payment assistance programs run by nonprofit organizations. These programs are funded largely by home builders and also by private homeowners desperate to sell. The seller-funded groups provide enough down-payment money to buyers that they can qualify for a mortgage backed by the Federal Housing Administration, which requires at least a 3% down payment.

    To critics, mortgages with down-payment assistance are similar to no-money-down subprime loans, which have triggered a wave of foreclosures. Most bankers believe defaults are so high because borrowers who encounter financial difficulties are more willing to walk away from a home when they didn’t put much of their own money into the purchase.

    “The inescapable fact is that seller-funded down-payment assistance is particularly susceptible to losses,” says Howard Glaser, a mortgage-industry consultant and former official at the Department of Housing and Urban Development. “Too often today’s seller-funded loan is tomorrow’s foreclosure.”

  2. grim says:

    From the APP:

    Old and new building permits get extention

    Both chambers of the state Legislature Monday voted to approve and send to the governor a measure extending old and new building permits, in hopes of kick-starting the economy.

    “I am very happy. It’s almost over,” said Stephen Patron, who heads up a Mount Laurel real estate development company and serves as head of the New Jersey Builders Association.

    “It’s a sign both chambers realize the importance of economic development,” said Tim Touhey, executive vice president of the Builders Association.

    “We got about 75 percent of the bad out, so it is a bad bill but we did the best we could with it,” said the Sierra Club’s Jeff Tittel, referencing various elements of the legislation environmentalists found objectionable.

    The builders and their allies said the state faced the abyss of economic failure unless the permits — for vetted and approved projects — were kept alive between a time period starting 18 months ago and running to Dec. 21, 2010.

    The extension had originally been proposed to last six years, before the bill was amended to shorten that.

  3. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    GMAC’s $60 Billion Deal Loses Confidence as Mortgages Burn Cash

    The 300 bankers gathered at New York’s Waldorf-Astoria Hotel last month faced a stark choice: Accept Sam Ramsey’s plea to restructure $60 billion of GMAC LLC’s debt or risk pushing the lending arm of General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, to the brink of insolvency.

    “There was not room for slippage,” said Ramsey, 49, a former Bank of America Corp. executive who joined Detroit-based GMAC in September and became chief risk officer two months later. He pulled it off as banks led by New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. provided GMAC and its Residential Capital LLC mortgage unit with the biggest restructuring package since the credit-market rout began a year ago.

    Whether that’s enough to ride out the worst housing slump since the Great Depression remains in doubt. Moody’s Investors Service cut GMAC’s credit rating one level to six rankings below investment-grade last week as ResCap burns through cash after losing $5.3 billion in the past six quarters.

    “ResCap presents a very significant risk,” said Mark Wasden, the lead GMAC analyst at Moody’s. “There is no easy exit from their difficulties right now. We think the company will yet again find itself in need of additional cash.”

  4. R Patrick says:

    Could it be the housing bubble was part of a plot to reconsolidate the average and the poor back into renters?

  5. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Housing Study Says Worst Isn’t Over
    As Local Markets Deal With Steep Drops
    By AMY HOAK
    June 24, 2008

    The housing slump, already shaping up to be the worst in a generation, still hasn’t run its full course, according to Harvard University’s annual report on housing, released Monday.

    And if job losses accelerate in coming months, that could push any recovery even further out, said Nicolas P. Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. Job losses, he said, could be “the last shoe to drop, but a pretty heavy shoe.”

    The center releases its “State of the Nation’s Housing” report each year and the 2008 edition gave a grim prognosis for housing markets throughout the country.

    Local markets are dealing with drops in housing starts, new-home sales and existing-home sales — corrections that are rivaling the deepest slowdowns since the World War II era, the center reported. On top of that, the fall in home prices and the rise in mortgage defaults are the worst on record since the 1960s and 1970s. All this adds up to a downturn that is “the most severe that we have seen,” said Mr. Retsinas.

    Mr. Retsinas said that historically, housing markets usually recover after an economic recession and a mix of falling mortgage rates and dropping home prices. This housing downturn will likely take longer to rebound, he said, because of the high volume of foreclosures and the constraints in the credit markets.

  6. kettle1 says:

    Why is home construction always called economic development???? Justy because you built a bunch of homes does not mean you have built are added to astriong economy. This so called economic growth is nothing gbut a house of cards

  7. kettle1 says:

    repost from late last night…

    the disaster i am waiting to see unfold is large scale defaulting on credit cards. given current bankruptcy laws, these are secured debts so people cannot currently walk away from them. the question is will congress step in and provide an out, similar to the debt forgiveness loophole they recently handed home loan defaulters.
    Heck, if that happens i might go on a quick buying spree then default. regardless. any such scenario would break what ever is remaining of the US economy.
    This scenario cannot be avoided. credit card debt is growing at record rates and is at record levels. it is 2 maybe 4 years at the most before we begin to see the cascade of credit card default. that is when i batten the hatches

  8. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    $32.9B spending plan clears state Legislature

    A $32.9 billion state budget that cuts spending and imposes no new taxes won approval Monday evening in the Legislature, which also passed legislation to borrow $3.9 billion to build schools without seeking permission from voters.

    Democrats hailed the budget, which is $600 million less than the one approved last year, as a “historic” step toward fiscal stability. Republicans called it “a missed opportunity” to cut wasteful spending that will hit taxpayers in the wallet.

    It is a budget that will inflict some short-term pain in the hope of fixing the state’s troubled finances in the long run.

    Critics predict reduced state aid could mean layoffs of police and firefighters, higher property taxes and hospital closings. Wealthier taxpayers will see their homestead rebates shrink or disappear.

    But the budget also takes steps to shrink the size and cost of state government, both next year and into the future. The Personnel Department and Commerce Commission will be abolished. Senior state workers will be offered early retirement, a move expected to increase the state’s pension obligations by $255 million but yield recurring payroll savings of $77 million in the first year and $93.5 million thereafter.

  9. bairen says:

    #4 R Patrick,

    I thought it was a way to devalue the dollar and trigger inflation, making it easier for the government to pay off its debts. While execs/political donors line their own pockets through bonuses and stock options, and we get stuck footing the bill as losses from the collapsing bubble get socialized.

  10. bairen says:

    #304 lisoosh from last night,

    Still looking. Keep getting contacted for temp work, since I’m still employed full time not too interested in that.

  11. mark says:

    will trenton provide any relief for the
    working class in new jersey.

    or will it continue as a welfare state?

  12. thatBIGwindow says:

    tsk tsk mark, you should know the answer to that!

  13. Clotpoll says:

    mark (11)-

    C’mon. Welfare state.

    It’s a done deal now. Can’t be undone. Just look at the new school construction deal yesterday: there’s really no money available, yet we’re going to keep siphoning whatever can be cadged into a cesspool of ineptitude and corruption that’s already proved itself incapable of self-management, let alone the improvement of instruction for students.

  14. re 11 Welfare state

    How would you tell the difference?

  15. Clotpoll says:

    The corrupt, lazy. larcenous and incompetent far outnumber the decent and good in NJ. If all state politics is a numbers game, this game is over.

    The bad guys win here…every time.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    Jon Corzine is one of Obama’s “economic advisers”.

    God help us all.

  17. grim says:

    Looking through listings this morning, I came across an interesting description: Olympic-sized Master Bedroom.

    Or don’t I want to know?

  18. thatBIGwindow says:

    okay, I am sensing a scheme. Tell me what you all think about this:

    House listed for $489,000 in 2005. Listed as having central air, gas heat, 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Spent 185 days on market, price was lowered to $459,000 but sold for $423,000 in July 2006.

    House was bought with 100% financing under a lender which was notorious for subprime lending.

    House is listed in March 2008 for $460,000 but listed as having 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, no central air, and oil heat.

    How is this possible?? How did this house go from gas to oil, lose a half bathroom AND a bedroom. Yes, the LA could have been careless, but it seems like the LA does not want this house sold. It is listed for more money than it was sold for, despite it not selling back in 2005/2006 PLUS not having the extra bedroom and bathroom. I think the “owners” and the LA are in some type of scheme. House has been on the market now for 110 days…and get this, there isnt a for sale sign on the front lawn. Something doesn’t smell right.

  19. Pat says:

    http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/06/23/economy_2008/?refid=0

    Two years ago, only two percent of those coming to her office and facing foreclosure were successful in renegotiating the terms of their mortgage with their lender, she says.

    “Now, I want to say it’s upwards of 20 to 40 percent, somewhere in there,” Peterson says.

    ———–

    Can anyone verify if holders are renegotiating at a rate of 20% or more in NJ?

  20. mark says:

    corzine on bloom this am ,,, will explain
    how new budget will do wonders for NJ.

    afterall , he has all of our best interests
    in mind.

    your home,,, etc.

  21. mark says:

    here comes johhnnny,,, to save the day

  22. mark says:

    lets see ,,, 72 month deals from gm, and
    zero down home financing..

    things must be getting a little tight.

    i out to the gm store to get me a silverrado,, with the spinners.

  23. John says:

    so 175K financial service job cuts, for every FS job loss ten additional jobs are lost, cleaning women, landscapers, staff at country club, car wash, dog sitter etc. So we are talking 1.75 million because of subprime.

    Actually that 72 month deal is good. The pontiac G6 and Soltice is included. Soltice covt is a great mid life crisis car and the G6 is a great first car for your daughter. That said why would I want a 60K 10MPG monster with a 72 month deal zero interest deal. Heck I don’t even want it for free.

  24. kettle1 says:

    mark,

    If you really are in the market for a new car and you dont drive very much then a 0% loan on a car may not be a bad deal. they are essentially paying you as inflation is taking off. and heck worse case scenario the take the car back….. thats the american way now right?

  25. grim says:

    What inflation?

    From Bloomberg:

    Dow Chemical to Raise Prices an Extra 25% in July

    Dow Chemical Co., the largest U.S. chemical maker, will raise prices on its products by as much as an additional 25 percent in July to make up for surging energy costs.

    Freight surcharges of $300 per truck shipment and $600 per rail shipment will become effective Aug. 1, Midland, Michigan- based Dow said today in a statement.

    Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris last month raised prices for June by 20 percent, the biggest boost in the company’s 111-year history, because of surging costs to make Styrofoam, pesticides and plastics. The additional increases were needed because of a “relentless” rise in the cost of energy and hydrocarbon materials, Dow said.

    “The staggering increase in our costs over the past few months have forced us to take these further measures in order to restore our margins,” Liveris said in the statement.

  26. thatBIGwindow says:

    Does this apply to Saturn too? I like the Saturn convt headlights/taillights better than the pontiac soltice

  27. NNJ says:

    However, Case of Case-Shiller said in march 08, ‘Housing has hit bottom’.

  28. thatBIGwindow says:

    Renters do not have to worry because they don’t buy household cleaners anyway. Right grim?

  29. grim says:

    Of course not, renters are dirty and are content to live in squalor. Renters have no need for cleaners or cleansers.

  30. afe says:

    Clot (291) from yesterday: Thanks much for your explanation. The assessments do feel very hit or miss even when comparing properties in the same town. Truly another twist of ‘caveat emptor’ or as John/Bi might say ‘cavity empty’.

  31. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Financial Firms May Make Deeper Cuts, Eliminate 175,000 Jobs

    The world’s biggest financial firms may lose as many as 175,000 jobs by this time next year as Citigroup Inc. and other banks shed workers amid slowing revenue and billions in writedowns, executive recruiters say.

    Financial companies have announced plans to trim more than 83,000 jobs since last July, according to figures compiled by Bloomberg. As more employees are fired, workforce reductions may exceed those from the market slump of 2000 to 2003 when technology-related shares collapsed, recruiters said.

    “The worst is yet to come,” Russ Gerson, head of New York- based recruiting firm Gerson Group, said yesterday in an interview. “We are going to have a major contraction. This is affecting all areas of the investment banking universe and it’s affecting all areas globally.”

  32. BC Bob says:

    I haven’t bought lawn fertilizers in over 2 years.

  33. kettle1 says:

    freight rail is going to see a new golden age starting in the next 5 years. Fuel costs are going to kill a large % of the freight by truck business and shift it to freight by rail, as on a per mile basis it takes significantly less fuel o move freight long distance. truck will still be the dominant method for local and short distance transport.

  34. grim says:

    From the AFP:

    OPEC president sees no consumer relief from high oil prices

    OPEC president Chakib Khelil on Tuesday rebuffed calls from oil consuming countries to increase supply, saying the cartel had already done what it could on high prices.

    “OPEC has already done what OPEC can do and prices will not come down,” Khelil told journalists as he arrived for a meeting with EU energy officials in Brussels.

    Other member countries don’t want to increase their production because, as they’ve said many times, from our perspective we don’t see any shortage in the market,” OPEC secretary general Abdullah al-Badri said.

    Oil prices rose towards 138 dollars a barrel on Tuesday, closing in on record highs amid lingerong concerns about supplies from the cartel.

    In the face of calls from consumer countries for an oil output hike, al-Badri insisted that “the market is full of oil,” blaming “other factors” for the high price of crude, including refinery problems and hedge funds piling into the market.

    Khelil blamed high prices on the US “subprime crisis and the ensuing impact of the dollar devaluation and the influx of funds that were loooking for good returns that they could not find in other investments.”

  35. gary says:

    kettle1 [33],

    That’s why Buffet has been scooping up Burlington Northern shares.

  36. 3b says:

    #13 Clot: And the budget of course includes a nother 37 Million dollar cut in state aid to Rurtgers, on top of the massive cut they got last year.

    NJ is the only state that is cutting aid to higher education. Corzine should just the close the state university system, and be done with it. It is obvious it is not a priority.

  37. stan says:

    Unbelievable….. The state is admitting that the buyouts will increase pension liabilities by 225 million and only save a fraction of that in the here and now? Does anyone in trenton have any sense. Imagine if you did this with you personal finances. Lawmakers should be required to take financial planning courses to at least have an idea of how to balance a checkbook.

  38. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Fannie, Freddie Fail to Relieve Housing by Shunning Jumbo Loans

    Three months after Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac won the freedom to step up home-loan purchases, the government-chartered mortgage-finance companies are doing what critics in the Federal Reserve and Congress had predicted.

    Instead of using powers granted by Congress to buy jumbo loans for the first time, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are purchasing their own mortgage-backed securities, helping reduce losses, company filings show. The large loans, above $417,000, made up almost a third of the U.S. market last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

    Since the rule change took effect in March, Fannie Mae has packaged $24 million of jumbo loans into securities, while Freddie Mac added $220 million, according to the Inside Mortgage Finance newsletter. In April, the companies spent more than $32.4 billion to buy their own instruments, regulatory filings show.

    “They were granted expanded opportunity to help recovery in a troubled housing market and yet have appeared to focus on their own recovery,” said former U.S. Representative Richard Baker, a critic of the companies who left office earlier this year to run the Managed Funds Association in Washington.

    Congress had kept Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of the jumbo market to force them to concentrate on low- and moderate- income borrowers.

    The change places taxpayers at greater risk “without facilitating the policy goals I believe the Congress had in mind when they eased these portfolio limits,” said Baker, 60, a Louisiana Republican.

  39. grim says:

    Who coulda knew? Corporate self preservation is a greater motivator than altruism.

  40. 3b says:

    #29 grim; Yes and we turn our underwear inside out, so we can wear it for 2 days.

  41. 3b says:

    #31 grim: Where is our young Pret? Looks like we may exceed exceed (no surprise) the layoffs after the dot com bust.

  42. Sean says:

    The Sentate Fiddles while Rome Burns!

    Senator Menendez sends me his newsletter.
    Check out his video on Senate Bill S.3044.
    the Consumer-First Energy Act of 2008

    http://menendez.senate.gov/newsletter/MenendezMessage_061808-general.html#1

    The legislation would create a tax on “windfall profits” of the major oil companies at a special supplemental rate of 25 percent; repeal the Section 199 deduction for the major oil and gas companies and tighten the rules restricting the use of foreign tax credits on oil and gas related income; suspend filling of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR); punish price gouging; limit excessive speculation in the oil markets; and crack down on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The “windfall profits” tax would not apply to profits of oil companies for qualified investment in clean, affordable and domestically-produced renewable alternative fuels or renewable electricity production.

  43. frank says:

    US HOME PRICES IN 20 METROPOLITAN AREAS -15.3 PCT IN APRIL 2008 VS APRIL 2007 – S&P/CASE-SHILLER

  44. kettle1 says:

    any opinions on the idea of credit card default causing the next economic tremor?

  45. Orion says:

    I stil wayting for my goberment stymulus check.

    Gobernor Corzine is good. He likes studdents. He giv lot of money to schol. More schols is good. I going to vote Obama becase he is friend of gobernor Corzine.

  46. Stu says:

    Yeah,

    Where is Pret?

    You know, that 25% Dow Chemical price increase is huge news. Dow Chemical has 56 billion in sales! Here comes skyrocketing inflation. I think the market will see this Dow announcement as the official start of hyperinflation.

  47. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Home prices fall 15.3% in past year, Case-Shiller says

    Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have dropped 15.3% in the past year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s. Prices were down 16.3% in a smaller subset of 10 homes that have been tracked over a longer period. Home prices fell in 12 of 20 cities in April compared with March, but are down in all 20 cities compared with a year earlier. Prices are now down 17.8% from the peak two years ago. The Case-Shiller index tracks sales of the same homes over time, so it’s not influenced by the mix of homes sold in a period.

  48. Laurie says:

    Did anyone see a dude named Ramsey on CBS this AM talking about the housing crisis?? He said that real estate had only gone down in the 4 horseman area..CA, FL, AZ and NV..otherwise RE is still going strong esp in the Northeast and Dallas and Houston…some more towns too…then he said *gasp* that buying in FL right now is a great idea and esp buying in Tampa…Tampa?? Is he on Meth??!!

  49. BC Bob says:

    “any opinions on the idea of credit card default causing the next economic tremor?”

    kettle,

    Yes, along with auto lonas, it’s baked in the cake.

  50. watergapnomad says:

    Is the 20 city breakdown available yet for the Case-Shiller report?

  51. grim says:

    Site is slow, but I was able to pull down the Excel file.

  52. grim says:

    NY Metro Commutable Area prices down 10% from the peak.

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_History_062418.xls

  53. kettle1 says:

    BC,

    i am not sure what you mean by b”baked in the cake”. DO you mean its going to happen and thats that, or do you mean that current financials have already taken that into account

  54. rhymingrealtor says:

    TBW,

    What’s the MLS# on that house in question, I am not adverse to calling the listing agent with questions of it’s interesting history.

    Thanks
    KL

  55. BC Bob says:

    kettle,

    It’s in process and going to cause major tremors.

  56. AL says:

    From last:
    Laurie Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 8:51 am
    RE Post #287…Hummers…last summer a few miles from our home I noticed a strange parking lot being built…for one thing it was huge and it had high walls and it had security cameras all over the place…curious..who would build such a high security parking lot?? Upon completion the lot was filled from one end to the other with brand new….Hummers…fresh from the factory to a local parking lot…perhaps they should be more concerned with theft if the lot was full of Prius’s..

    Hey – they are guarding thouse hummer from homel;ess/renters/foreclosed home owners – you can easuilly move intio one of thouse hummers – it has as much space as an average room.

  57. njrebear says:

    SocGen winds up $4.3 billion fund
    Highest-rated debt repaid, though SIV’s junior holders get nothing

  58. thatBIGwindow says:

    KL: MLS # 2809451 and the original listing was # 2540752

    Let me know what happens!

  59. Seneca says:

    Anecdote of the day…

    NJ Transit train between Secaucus and NY Penn. Two guys from Mahwah (Bergen County last time I checked) having a conversation.

    Blueshirt with khakis guy: “I bought and sold at the peak in 2005 but I am gonna be there for a long time so I’m not worried.”

    Blueshirt with jeans guy: “Yeah, it’s crazy whats going on. My neighbors have been in their house for over 30 years, put it up for sale at $925 and sold for $785. But you know, you buy today at $785 and in 5 years you will be right back at $925.”

    Blueshirt with khakis guy: “yeah, 5 years or even less! They probably took the low price because they had their mortgage paid and just wanted to get out.”

    … then they started to discuss the merits of having a vasectomy in the event they already have 3 children.

    So there you go, Bergen County will be better than ever in 5 years or less. I wasn’t even aware prices had dropped up there what with the convenient “change at Secaucus” train line.

    This thought process of people selling at lower prices because their mortgages are paid off is frequently thrown at me by RE Agents who say I can’t use a low comp from down the street because it was people who either had their house paid off or had to move for job reasons. These comps are not supposed to “count”.

  60. rhymingrealtor says:

    Nevermind TBW – I found it.

    I will call on it let you know.

    KL

  61. John says:

    Welcome to the party!

    Charlotte, North Carolina, showed a decline for the first time.

  62. 3b says:

    348 laurie:RE is still going strong esp in the Northeast

    I guess he menans the rise in inventory, an decline in sales is still going strong in teh northeast. perhaops he missed the revisions for NJ, from up 4% to down 30%.

  63. thatBIGwindow says:

    thanks KL…this may get interesting…

  64. rhymingrealtor says:

    TBW,

    I am printing out and I will call, the listing agent on this house is a company I have only heard of recently they popped up in the area they only have forclosures and reo’s. They are all on=ver the place now.

    KL

  65. waters says:

    Here’s the month-over-previous month rates of decline for the Composite 20 cities in the Case Shiller index:

    August 2007 -0.78%
    September 2007 -0.89%
    October 2007 -1.39%
    November 2007 -2.12%
    December 2007 -2.22%
    January 2008 -2.27%
    February 2008 -2.82%
    March 2008 -2.39%
    April 2008 -1.60%

    So at first glance it looks like the rate of decline is slowing the past couple months. But then there’s the seasonal aspect to RE price changes. Here’s the average price change by month of the Case Shiller Composite 10, going back to 1987.

    Jan Average 0.06%
    Feb Average 0.12%
    Mar Average 0.36%
    Apr Average 0.65%
    May Average 0.92%
    Jun Average 1.00%
    Jul Average 0.78%
    Aug Average 0.59%
    Sep Average 0.36%
    Oct Average 0.23%
    Nov Average 0.03%
    Dec Average -0.01%

    So we can expect the month-to-month rate of decline to look a bit better for the next couple months before falling off a cliff again. I think the numbers in late ’08 are going to be incredibly bad.

  66. hughesrep says:

    33

    Many manufacturers I deal with are adding “fuel surcharges” to their shipments. I guess it’s tough to get a price increase shoved through the pipeline with no demand. If they aren’t adding surcharges they are increasing the size of the order that must be purchased to get free shipping, sometimes by as much as 50%.

  67. njrebear says:

    59 – blue collar workers? :)

  68. 3b says:

    #59 seneca: Sounds like the guys are trying to rationalize , what cannot be rationalized.

    Sad part is, these guys could most likely be employed in the financial sector, and with all the layoffs going on in that sector they still don’t get it.

    In my own neck of Bergen Co, I am hearing a lot of anger from people, and I have found that anger in many instances is a cover for fear.

  69. njpatient says:

    17 grim
    “Olympic-sized master bedroom”

    I tried out for the olympic sleeping team, but didn’t qualify.

    I had a good excuse, though.

    I was short on sleep.

  70. lostinny says:

    44 Kettle
    I just heard a report on the radio – 106.3 (take it for what it’s worth. I didn’t get where they got the story) that credit card companies are denying applications in areas where the housing industry is crashing badly- specifically California, Nevada and Florida.
    It’s a comin!

  71. NJGator says:

    PGC – Regarding yesterday’s diaper report. You probably have to buy even less diapers than you think.

    The $5 discount comes off as a manufacturer’s coupon. In my experience with baby bucks, you actually get credit for the non-sale price towards the baby bucks total. The baby bucks $10 discount is applied as a coupon for your order, not as a price reduction on the boxes of diapers. My guess is that you can actually get your gas card for 3 boxes of diapers and a box of Mac and Cheese.

    Happy Shopping.

  72. DL says:

    “Germany may report a shrinking in its economy for the second quarter of this year and stagnation would probably be a positive outcome, Deputy Economy Minister Walther Otremba said on Tuesday.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/25343376

    But I thought Europe/Asia were going to bail us out of our crisis. What happened to the decoupled world economy?

  73. lostinny says:

    17 Grim and 69 Patient
    I thought Olympic size only refers to pools. What does one need with an Olympic sized bedroom? Nevermind. I just answered my own question.

  74. Stu says:

    Kettle1, BC Bob,

    It’s going exactly as planned. Saw the writing on the wall when the CC issuers were changing the bankruptcy laws a few year’s back.

    http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/06/23/3513118.htm

    Apparently, people are not only increasing their cc debt at alarming rates, but there is an increase in people sending in only the minimum payment. This is a historical precursor to increased CC defaults.

    Auto loans, I know little about, although with the ability to repossess the cars and the fact that most loans will probably be a decent part of the way payed off, then the damage probably won’t rival that of the CC debt which averages over $2,000 per citizen in the US.

  75. rhymingrealtor says:

    Yea, that was an interesting conversation.

    It seems that the owners have applied for a loan modification. It has been over 2.5 months and they hav’nt hear yet. The house has not been shown since the listing was taken, however when questioned about the incredible differences in the the listing info I was told it was a mistake. I mentioned that it was quite a mistake and I did’nt understand how that kind of mistake could be made? At that point I was hung up on.
    Should make interesting talking point at our next office meeting.

    Thanks TBW

    KL

  76. Stu says:

    #71 NJGator:

    I knew you would eventually chime in on the ShopRite sale.

  77. grim says:

    Waters,

    I’d caution you against using month of month changes, pricing has been shown to have seasonal variation.

    The year over year decline in pricing has been accelerating in the NY Metro Commutable area:

    Date HPI YOY Change
    January 2007 212.78 -0.34%
    February 2007 212.52 -0.91%
    March 2007 212.39 -0.91%
    April 2007 211.61 -1.56%
    May 2007 210.51 -2.35%
    June 2007 209.49 -2.94%
    July 2007 208.36 -3.20%
    August 2007 207.15 -3.35%
    September 2007 206.35 -3.61%
    October 2007 205.55 -4.07%
    November 2007 204.57 -4.51%
    December 2007 202.44 -5.31%
    January 2008 200.94 -5.56%
    February 2008 198.60 -6.55%
    March 2008 196.56 -7.45%
    April 2008 193.93 -8.35%

  78. mark says:

    well at least johnny got his pins inplace

  79. thatBIGwindow says:

    #75: KL: Thanks for the followup. Sounds shady. Isn’t against MLS rules to have incorrect listing information?

  80. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Waters :65

    While the Case-Shiller 20 city composite numbers have merit, I would like to see the New York Metro numbers broken out.

    Your list of month over previous month is good, but how about year over year.

  81. RESkeptic says:

    I want to get some other people’s opinions on this. With the state of disarray home financing is in, two friends of mine that are married are buying a house, and I personally think there’s no way they are going to get a mortgage.

    Between the two of them, they probably make between 90k-100k. He has $12k in credit card debt, $9k in student loans, an auto loan that is probably about $15k and some medical bills. She only has an auto loan with about $20k on it and plans on getting a student loan this summer. Her credit is great and his not so much.

    They got the seller to accept their offer of $335k and they plan on only putting down 5%. There’s no way they’re gonna get financing for this, right?

  82. njpatient says:

    27 NNJ
    “Case of Case-Shiller said in march 08, ‘Housing has hit bottom’.”

    Which is why, in future, pretorius (if he shows up again) won’t be able to claim that the Case-Schiller numbers are biased becaues they need to justify their predictions that things will get worse.

  83. mark says:

    tell em to pass ,,, 5% down,,, they are not ready

  84. njpatient says:

    29 grim/tbw

    “Of course not, renters are dirty and are content to live in squalor. Renters have no need for cleaners or cleansers.”

    Nor do we hire maids or plumbers (which is why our Olympic-sized bedrooms are often mistaken for Olympic-sized pools).

  85. Secondary Market says:

    #81, that’s a 2005 slam dunk. but an air ball by today’s standards.

  86. rhymingrealtor says:

    TBW 79

    Yes it is. I am taking this further, will let you know ( actually will let my broker take it further if she choses)

    KL

  87. RESkeptic says:

    That’s what I keep telling them, but they don’t want to listen to me. I guess we’ll find out. But I’m not crazy telling them no way is all I want to know.

  88. PGC says:

    #56 Al / Laurie

    I was driving past the Cadillac / Hummer dealership in Florham Park a few days back. About a year ago the lot would be full of Hummers with a line of them out front. When I drove past I saw three parked at the back. I wonder when the name change is going to happen.

  89. njpatient says:

    “The world’s biggest financial firms may lose as many as 175,000 jobs by this time next year ”

    Can anyone remember how the pretorius concept worked; something about how if those jobs haven’t been lost yet, then it’s logically impossible for them ever to be lost, and we can therefore conclude that the 2001/02 downturn was worse?

  90. mark says:

    johnny tells bloom ,,, he’s got our best interest in mind for the long term.

    no tax increases

  91. mark says:

    nose, actually grew during interview

  92. grim says:

    RESkeptic,

    They’ll be able to find a loan, but they’ll be paying a tremendously high rate. I had a client quoted near double digits recently.

  93. Secondary Market says:

    #87
    although, FHA could be an option for them. but they should not be buying regardless; pay the debt down.

  94. njpatient says:

    “They were granted expanded opportunity to help recovery in a troubled housing market and yet have appeared to focus on their own recovery,” said former U.S. Representative Richard Baker

    Ha ha.

    That’s a damn shame.

  95. AL says:

    njpatient Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 9:50 am
    29 grim/tbw

    “Of course not, renters are dirty and are content to live in squalor. Renters have no need for cleaners or cleansers.”

    Nor do we hire maids or plumbers (which is why our Olympic-sized bedrooms are often mistaken for Olympic-sized pools).

    Why would I hire plumbers??? I have a landlord for that.

    P.S. Moving into my new rental house (the ewame price as my one bedroom apartment before) and let me tell you – taking off 45 years old, fabric/paper composite wall-paper is a b1tch of a job…

    Since we got huge berak on the rent for this house, landlord will only fix “real” stuff- as required in a lease – such as heating, structural, water leaks, plumbing, electrical.

    All cosmetic are on us. So off comes wall-paper, on comes paint. And no, No cleaners whatsoever.

    Whats most amazing about this report is that Dow and most major chemicals manufacturers have being rising their prices slowly but steadilly, over the last 2 years. And now comes 25%. BOOM!!!

  96. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Four years of home gains have been wiped out

    Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities have dropped a record 15.3% in the past year and are now back to where they were in 2004, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s.

    Prices in the 20 cities are now down 17.8% from the peak two years ago. The biggest declines were seen in Las Vegas, Miami and Phoenix, with prices falling by 25% or more in the past year. Prices in 10 cities have fallen by more than 10%.

  97. waters says:

    grim (77),
    The seasonality is what I was pointing out in the second part of my post. I do like to look at the month-to-month since it’s a 3 month moving average– I think it has some value. The seasonality aspect makes it more complex obviously.

  98. njpatient says:

    44 kettle
    I agree on the credit card front (I think it’ll take another 18 months to really rear it’s head).
    We’ll have plenty to keep us occupied in the meantime.

  99. PGC says:

    #71 NJGator.

    The $5 off the diapers is a manufacturers coupon. That brings the cost from $24.99 to the sale price of $19.99. You earn a $10 BB coupon for every $75 worth of baby products. The $10 can be spent on anything. The cashier was being helpful and took the $10 straight off the diapers, so we had to make up the balance with some boxes of new Fruit Cherios. I had some nice 75c coupons they doubled.

    I see this as a sport. My record for savings is $100 groceries for $40.

  100. njpatient says:

    48 laurie

    Yeah – saw that. Mrs. Patient and I were pointing at the guy and laughing.

  101. Clotpoll says:

    afe (30)-

    “…or as John/Bi might say ‘cavity empty’…”

    In NJ, no cavity stays empty long. Our gubmint probes every opening and reams it dry.

  102. njpatient says:

    52 grim

    Looking at month-to-month numbers (and recognizing that there must be some seasonal effect) it looks like the price drop in the NYC commutable area is still accelerating.

    Whoooooooosh!!

    I love the Tower of Terror – what a ride!

  103. waters says:

    Fiddy (80),
    Grim posted the NY metro YOY above (down 8.35% for the April index). March’s index was down 7.45%, so the YOY declines are accelerating.

    Here’s the composite-20 YOY declines just for fun.

    January 2007 -0.51%
    February 2007 -1.31%
    March 2007 -1.82%
    April 2007 -2.69%
    May 2007 -3.39%
    June 2007 -3.94%
    July 2007 -4.36%
    August 2007 -4.84%
    September 2007 -5.50%
    October 2007 -6.67%
    November 2007 -8.32%
    December 2007 -9.73%
    January 2008 -11.35%
    February 2008 -13.51%
    March 2008 -15.27%
    April 2008 -16.35%

  104. Orion says:

    Gobernor Corzine on Bloomberg radio now.

    He says NJ Attorney General working hard to fight corruption.
    ” Too many corrupt politicians have been elected into office.”
    This is news?

    Where my check is?

  105. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. consumer confidence plunges again

    U.S. consumer confidence plunged in June to reach its fifth lowest reading ever, the Conference Board reported Tuesday, as expectations reached a record low. The June consumer confidence index fell to 50.4 from a May reading that was revised to 58.1 from a prior estimate of 57.2. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected a June reading of 56.0. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 30.5% in June from 28.3% in May.

  106. njpatient says:

    59 seneca

    “This thought process of people selling at lower prices because their mortgages are paid off is frequently thrown at me by RE Agents who say I can’t use a low comp from down the street because it was people who either had their house paid off or had to move for job reasons. These comps are not supposed to “count”.”

    If you’re ever confused about a particulary comp and whether it “counts”, just have a look at nearby recent sales. If the particular comp you’re looking at is LOWER, then it DOESN’T COUNT.

    You can figure out the specific reason why it doesn’t count later.

    Ask the next RE agent that tells you this “so you’re telling me that house sales don’t count as comparables unless the seller is upside down?”

  107. bairen says:

    #61 John,

    I think Charlotte is down at least 10% yoy. The builders were doing things like free upgrades and thousands towards closing costs to mask the decline. Now that scheme is being exposed and the builders have cut prices.

    I predict by the end of this year Charlotte will officially be down at least 10% yoy.

  108. njpatient says:

    61 john

    “Charlotte, North Carolina, showed a decline for the first time.”

    Cue Mitchell: “It’s a great time to buy!”

  109. waters says:

    And here are the YOY declines by metro area.

    NV-Las Vegas -26.8%
    FL-Miami -26.7%
    AZ-Phoenix -25.0%
    CA-Los Angeles -23.1%
    CA-San Diego -22.4%
    CA-San Francisco -22.1%
    FL-Tampa -20.4%
    MI-Detroit -18.0%
    MN-Minneapolis -15.5%
    DC-Washington -14.8%
    IL-Chicago -9.3%
    NY-New York -8.4%
    GA-Atlanta -7.5%
    OH-Cleveland -6.8%
    MA-Boston -6.4%
    WA-Seattle -4.9%
    OR-Portland -4.7%
    CO-Denver -4.7%
    TX-Dallas -3.4%
    NC-Charlotte -0.1%
    Composite-10 -16.3%
    Composite-20 -15.3%

    The CS Shiller price index update day is my favorite day of the month. Is that sad?

  110. njpatient says:

    60 rhyming

    If it’s interesting, can you let the rest of us know, too? Tbw piqued my interest.
    Thanks.

  111. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. home prices fall 4.6% in past year. OFHEO says

    U.S. home prices fell 0.8% in April compared with March, and were down 4.6% in the past year, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Tuesday. Prices were down in seven of nine regions in April, the government agency said. Prices have retreated to the December 2005 levels. The OFHEO index shows a smaller year-over-year decline than the narrower Case-Shiller 20-city index, which reported prices down 15.3% in the past year. The OFHEO index has a broader geographic reach, but doesn’t count homes purchased by subprime or jumbo loans.

  112. njpatient says:

    65 waters

    great numbers
    thanks

  113. Clotpoll says:

    (81)-

    FHA, it’s a slam-dunk acceptance. As long as his FICO’s over 580. Anything under 580, the secondary market won’t take it.

    In fact, they’ll only have to put down 3%, and they can accept the whole 3% from the seller.

    And, voila! 100% financing, to marginally-qualified borrowers!

    Subprime is not dead. It just goes by the name FHA.

  114. make money says:

    any opinions on the idea of credit card default causing the next economic tremor?

    3-5 yrs down the line as minimum pmnts will be made and balances growing uptil then. Next round of write down will be caused by ALT-A loans. Thi swill make subprime look like a stroll in the park.

    I think 2 yrs after Alt-A is done deflating we will be nibbling around a bottom.

  115. 3b says:

    #89 njpatient: Sounds to me like you do not buy the pret concept, that we live in a sea of wealth that stretches form Va to Mass, full of talented wealthy people, who will keep real estate prices high?

    He explained all of this to us months ago.

  116. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. June consumer confidence 50.4 vs 58.1 in May

    U.S. June consumer confidence below 56.0 expected

    U.S. June consumer expectations at record low

  117. grim says:

    that we live in a sea of wealth that stretches form Va to Mass, full of talented wealthy people, who will keep real estate prices high?

    You forgot young and beautiful.

  118. skep-tic says:

    #7

    “the disaster i am waiting to see unfold is large scale defaulting on credit cards. given current bankruptcy laws, these are secured debts so people cannot currently walk away from them.”

    not entirely accurate. credit card debt is still not considered secured like a mortgage or a car loan. so if you have these kinds of debts, in bankruptcy, those lenders will recover against their collateral first. credit card debt has been moved up the chain from general unsecured debt, but in many cases, after the secured lenders foreclose on the debtors big assets, there is very little left over to liquidate, so the unsecured lenders, regardless of their relative priority, tend to be equally screwed.

    the real problem for most people w/r/t the new bankruptcy laws is the income threshhold for filing a Ch. 7. Almost everyone will be forced into Ch.13 this time around, which means they will have to work out a 5 yr repayment plan with their creditors instead of simply liquidating and starting over. But even in this case, credit card companies will likely only recover a fraction of what is owed to them (which is better than nothing, which is what they would get in Ch. 7). Widespread consumer bankruptcies will still be brutal on creditors, even with the new law

  119. Clotpoll says:

    patient (108)-

    Please do not bait Mitchell. It’s been nice around here lately without his tedious and incessant posts about nothing.

  120. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I appreciate the numbers. I must have sped past Grim’s posting.

    The Metro NY numbers are of interest to me. While it makes for interesting reading about the other area….I don’t care as much about Vegas, FLA and CA.

    The C-S Metro area by the way, includes a very wide geographical area. All the way out to Long Island, and into CT. Hell, Pike County in PA is even represented.

  121. RESkeptic says:

    #113

    I would think even this would be too risky for them given the amount of debt they already have. Their DTI would have to be astronomical after you pile on a $2k a month mortgage payment, plus taxes and insurance.

  122. njpatient says:

    75 rhyming/tbw

    inneresting
    very inneresting.

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  124. frank says:

    “U.S. home prices fall 4.6% in past year. OFHEO says”

    Our government is cooking the numbers again.

  125. BC Bob says:

    “Four years of home gains have been wiped out”

    [96],

    PUFF. The market giveth, the market taketh. It will continue to taketh. There is nothing the masters can do to stop it. You can extend a lifeline, institute hope and even create a freeze. The market could give 2 s#its.

    When is Beazer going under?

  126. make money says:

    I predict by the end of this year Charlotte will officially be down at least 10% yoy.

    I agree. the only reason that Charlotte became of interest was due to Florida being overpriced. Now that Florida has crashed there is absolutely no interest in Charlotte and it too will crash and go back to historical valuations of it’s relationship to Florida.

    The more things change the more they remain the same.

  127. make money says:

    When is Beazer going under?

    soon. be patient.

  128. njpatient says:

    87 skep

    They might conceivably get the financing, although I doubt it (the auto loans and credit card balances are an issue, the student loans are not), but as a young couple with no kids and a housing market that will continue to fall for at least another 18 months, buying now when they could rent and stay mobile is, pardon me, dumb.

  129. grim says:

    The C-S Metro area by the way, includes a very wide geographical area. All the way out to Long Island, and into CT. Hell, Pike County in PA is even represented.

    You can make the same argument for any of the indicies that use MSA. The New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area is pretty similar to the area used by Case Shiller.

    NAR regional breakdown isn’t very useful, neither is the OFHEO monthly regional breakdown (NJ/NY/PA are lumped together).

    The same criticism applies to the NJAR statewide data as well. Does someone in Gloucester County care about a Bergen County home sale?

    We’ve got to make due with the data we have. Part of that is accepting and understanding the limitations.

  130. njpatient says:

    shoulda said RESkep, as skep is someone else entirely.

  131. skep-tic says:

    #44

    “any opinions on the idea of credit card default causing the next economic tremor?”

    Kettle– The question for most people is: at what point does the minimum monthly payment exceed your ability to pay? Most people have no intention of ever paying off their credit cards (and the creditors like this). So balances are rising rapidly, but I do not think this in itself will send people over the edge as the minimum payment remains small relative to the balance.

    I also do not think resetting mortgages will be a widespread bankruptcy trigger because people will just walk away from their home (why would they want to try to do a workout when they owe more than the house is worth). The thing that is likely to send a lot of people into bankruptcy I think is energy prices (gas and heating oil). So if energy prices don’t let up by this winter, you may see credit card companies start to take big losses at their customers’ balances are written down in a wave of Ch. 13 cases

  132. njpatient says:

    103 waters

    “Here’s the composite-20 YOY declines just for fun”

    You were right. That WAS fun!!

  133. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    In my area, I like the granularity that OFHEO provides. The Edison MSA is a good proxy, rather than that wide NY Metro. Now if only OFHEO would include a better cross-section of mortgages.

    NAR Stats = BS (plus their math skills stink)

  134. skep-tic says:

    #81

    Reskeptic–

    I know a couple who just bought a house outside boston. The guy is in law school; the wife runs her own business out of the home (small, obviously). Stated income mortgage closed last month. They put 20% down and I’m pretty sure they have good FICO scores, but I was still surprised they were able to get a mortgage given their employment situation. So the mortgage market may be looser in some cases than the general perception

  135. njpatient says:

    115 3b

    “a sea of wealth that stretches form Va to Mass”

    Also known as the NYC Commutable Area? Not all of that is “close to Manhattan”, of course.

  136. bairen says:

    One of my friends called last night saying he found a house in marlboro. I told him I was sorry to hear that.

    I asked him if it was for 30% off the peak, if not keep waiting.

  137. njpatient says:

    117 grim
    “You forgot young and beautiful.”

    I think you meant bold and beautiful.
    Or young and restless.

    Like sands through the hourglass, so are the profits of our flips.

  138. njpatient says:

    119 clot

    “Please do not bait Mitchell. It’s been nice around here lately without his tedious and incessant posts about nothing.”

    Sorry. My bad.

    You said “tedious and incessant”, which is a little bit unfair. To be fair, you should have included “long-winded.”

  139. grim says:

    njp,

    You might be right, I did hear some chatter about modifying visa rules (h1b) to allow more models into Manhattan.

  140. SG says:

    It seems the Bill preventing RCA among towns has passed senate. The bill number is A500.

    http://www.njleg.state.nj.us/2008/Bills/A0500/500_I1.HTM

    6/23/2008 Passed Senate (Passed Both Houses) (21-16)

    So its now awaiting Governer’s signature, which I believe he has agreed to in past.

  141. skep-tic says:

    #109

    NY-New York -8.4%

    MA-Boston -6.4%

    I think the Boston/New York comparison is interesting. The fact that Boston is lower may not be statistically significant. Then again, their decline seemed to start about a year before the decline in the NYC area, so it may be that Boston gives some sort of indication of when the NY price decline will start to slow.

  142. waters says:

    Charlotte is an interesting case because they didn’t have huge gains like the rest of the country:

    YOY change
    April 2000 4.23%
    April 2001 1.51%
    April 2002 2.09%
    April 2003 1.61%
    April 2004 3.69%
    April 2005 2.91%
    April 2006 7.37%
    April 2007 6.97%
    April 2008 -0.12%

    I think declines there will be due to the national RE crash and credit crisis moreso than CLT RE being overvalued. Also at issue is that CLT is a banking town. That won’t help. I’d bet against them having a 10% YOY decline though.

  143. 3b says:

    #139 njpatient:Or young and restless.

    Perhaps young and clueless.

  144. njpatient says:

    144 waters

    I do not buy the argument that, in a given region prices will not fall far if they never rose far. It could just as easily be the case that, all other things being equal, prices would have fallen precipitously in Charlotte during the 2001-2007 period if not for the housing bubble.

  145. 3b says:

    #144 waters; Charlotte Is a 2 pony town, BOA, and Wahovia.

    Neither one of these concerns are in good shape, to say the least.

    I would not rule out a 10% drop or more, by year end.

  146. skep-tic says:

    #144

    Charlotte’s weaknesss is a massive amount of new construction. That is why their prices did not go up too much even as there was an influx of high income new residents. Now with the major employers there getting pounded, there are a lot of new developments which I would think will be heavily discounted

  147. lostinny says:

    Card Issuers Get Personal to Check Credit

    When it comes to staying in good graces with your credit-card company, having an unsullied credit record might not be enough.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/105283/Card-Issuers-Get-Personal-to-Check-Credit

  148. make money says:

    Charlotte is an interesting case because they didn’t have huge gains like the rest of the country:

    YOY change
    April 2000 4.23%
    April 2001 1.51%
    April 2002 2.09%
    April 2003 1.61%
    April 2004 3.69%
    April 2005 2.91%
    April 2006 7.37%
    April 2007 6.97%
    April 2008 -0.12%

    I think declines there will be due to the national RE crash and credit crisis moreso than CLT RE being overvalued. Also at issue is that CLT is a banking town. That won’t help. I’d bet against them having a 10% YOY decline though.

    There is only one reason why NC will experience pain. INVENTORY.

  149. Secondary Market says:

    njp
    # njpatient Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 10:48 am

    144 waters

    “I do not buy the argument that, in a given region prices will not fall far if they never rose far. It could just as easily be the case that, all other things being equal, prices would have fallen precipitously in Charlotte during the 2001-2007 period if not for the housing bubble.”

    get used to it. that is the mantra for philly realtors.

  150. make money says:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSJAT00371420080624

    Greenspan US Economy on Brink of recession.

    This guy should be hung for treason.

  151. bairen says:

    #144 waters,

    The builders were giving away tons of stuff from summer of 07 till this Spring. That really masks the figures. The upgrades and incentives the builders were throwing in were worth 8 to 10% more then the purchase price, yet the prices still dropped yoy.

    Charlotte is going to get hammered like a frat boy on a Thursday night.

  152. Seneca says:

    106 njpatient

    I agree that the agents rule of thumb is “If the particular comp you’re looking at is LOWER, then it DOESN’T COUNT.”

    I guess I will have to ask if this rule also applied in 2001-2005 for homes that were selling over comps.

    I went to an open house this past Sunday. Nicest home on the block in a bad neighborhood, with the highest taxes to go with it. Over $10k! Ask was $429. Realtor asked me how much I think home is worth. I suggested maybe $350. She laughed. I walked. I can buy a house in the town next door for $600k and still not have $10k taxes. Keep building those 3000 sqft homes people…

    I am going to buy when builders start buying McMansions, knocking them down and building 3BR 1 1/2 bath Cape Cods.

  153. make money says:

    Greenspan said he did not believe arguments that the housing problems in the U.S. were due to interest rates being too low during his tenure. “As far as I’m concerned, the data do not support it (that argument). The housing bubble is clearly an international phenomenon.”

    Blame Globalization.

  154. John says:

    Greenspan said he did not believe arguments that the housing problems in the U.S. were due to interest rates being too low during his tenure. “As far as I’m concerned, the data do not support it (that argument). The housing bubble is clearly an international phenomenon.”

  155. bairen says:

    I think Greenspan’s name is mispelled. Should be GreenSPIN.

  156. John says:

    Unlike Charlotte in Sex and the City, the one down south is going down quicker than a hooker during fleet week.

  157. thatBIGwindow says:

    Seneca: Awesome! I would love to see smaller homes being built. Bring back the modest side hall colonial. Also, the raised ranch…bring those back too

  158. RentinginNJ says:

    Anyone ever hear of a place called “Loan Search” out of Verona NJ? Are they legit?

    Thanks

  159. RentinginNJ says:

    I predict by the end of this year Charlotte will officially be down at least 10% yoy.

    Charlotte, in a way, probably has a “pant up” price drop coming. The home builders in Charlotte have masked price declines by throwing in free upgrades to compensate for falling prices. Once you max out the freebees, these declines will become more evident. You can only pack a poorly constructed monster box with so much granite & stainless.

  160. grim says:

    I would love to see smaller homes being built

    Not until land prices fall enough. The cost of land is without a doubt the single biggest fixed cost of building in the northeast. I know it seems counterintuitive, but it is cheaper to build a bigger house as those high fixed costs are spread over a greater number of square feet.

    Builders could build Capes and Ranches, but with land prices where they are, they would look incredibly overpriced compared to a McMansion.

  161. waters says:

    grim,
    Are new home sales included in Case-Shiller? I seem to recall it being based on resales of the same homes.

  162. chicagofinance says:

    grim Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 10:43 am
    njp, You might be right, I did hear some chatter about modifying visa rules (h1b) to allow more models into Manhattan.

    grim: No is was Visa with a capital “V” as in MasterCard….and I think it was more of the Client No. 9 -type…

  163. thatBIGwindow says:

    I could never understand the allure of Hoboken. I guess it is for those who didn’t want the college party to end.

  164. Stu says:

    TBW:

    “I could never understand the allure of Hoboken.”

    Where else can a 27-year old hook up with a 19-year old every Thursday night? Hanging out at the local student center is WAY more work.

  165. chicagofinance says:

    Sean Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 11:16 am
    for the Hoboken crowd.

    S-man: as you know, that author is renown as a shill and the NY Times is at the nadir relative to its cred….Hoboken is in serious trouble from a RE and fiscal perspective, and this joker is blowing sunshine up people’s posterior…..

    As for the opposing/alarmist/idiot/doomsday writing….someone here posted this link last week….
    http://nymag.com/news/businessfinance/bottomline/47823/

  166. RESkeptic says:

    #130

    I know, you’re preaching to the choir here. I kind of hope they do get denied, because I feel it’s a really bad idea. Their reasoning is that they get the seller to accept and offer 25% below asking, so it’s a good idea.

  167. SG says:

    I normally don’t like to paste large section of articles, but I think this one deserves good read. The whole notion of Economic Cycle is debunked. Come to think of it, I am still waiting for Nasdaq 4500, as the cycle is long overdue since 2002. Where is it?

    The idea that we’re even in a business cycle is whistling in the dark. To think of the economy being in a cycle is to imply an automatic recovery is in store. This free-market idea was developed at the National Bureau of Economic Research by opponents of government regulatory policy. The fantasy is that the economy oscillates in a fairly smooth and regular sine curve. But this always has been a fiction. 19th-century writers didn’t speak of economic cycles, but rather of periodic financial crises. There is a slow buildup, and a sudden plunge, so the shape is ratchet-shaped. Today’s plunging real estate and stock market prices are not a self-correcting ebb and flow in which downturns set in motion automatic stabilizers that produce recovery. Each U.S. recovery since World War II has started out from a higher level of debt. The result is like driving a car with the brakes pressed more and more tightly. Alan Greenspan at the Federal Reserve flooded the banking system with enough credit to enable debts to be carried by borrowing against the rising price of homes and office buildings, corporate stocks and bonds. In effect, the interest charge was simply added onto the debt balance. But now prices are falling, leaving families, companies and many Wall Street firms with negative equity. Asset-price inflation fueled by the Federal Reserve is giving way to debt deflation. Today, the prospects are dim for paying off debts out of further price gains for homes and real estate. Speculators have pulled out of the market and as late as 2006 they accounted for about a sixth of new purchases. The United States and other countries have reached the point where interest and amortization payments are absorbing the entire economic surplus of so many individuals, so many companies and so many government bodies that new construction, investment and employment are grinding to a halt. Families, real estate investors and companies are obliged to use their disposable income to pay their creditors. This leaves them without enough money to sustain the living standards of recent years and they no longer can wipe out their debts by declaring bankruptcy as in times past, because Congress has passed the harsh bankruptcy law that credit-card and bank lobbies paid them to pass. This means that there won’t be a rebound, and it will take longer than 2009 to recover.

    http://www.dissidentvoice.org/2008/06/the-game-is-over-there-wont-be-a-rebound/

  168. NJGator says:

    TBW – E-Z Commute. Bus to NYC stopped at my doorstep every 5 minutes. I am by nature a lazy person, and it doesn’t get much easier than that.

    I did, of course, move out before I was 30. Stu was too cheap to pay Hoboken rents, and so we wound up in Montclair : )

  169. Sean says:

    re; #165 – a set aside of 1,000 H-1B Visa’s for models.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/22/realestate/22njzo.html?_r=2&ref=realestate&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

    I don’t know what the means test for the these H-1B visas will be. For most workers it is a salary survey and I belive a 4 year degree in engineering of some kind. Perhaps the models will need to pass some kind of test in Anthony Weiner’s office?

  170. PGC says:

    Could anyone provide details on
    MLS ID# 2537656. I’m interested in previous sales and listings.

    I track Rutherford houses and I wonder if I am seeing a step down in prices.

  171. SG says:


    The Blame Game

    It’s a classic Wall Street “whodunit,” complete with a collection of greedy investment bankers, slow-witted policymakers and numbskull Florida home buyers. But with so many suspects, how will Americans ever figure out who killed the once-vibrant and cheery U.S. economy?

    “There were a lot of people who contributed to the real estate bubble and the easing of lending standards that led to the subprime debacle,” says Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers. So many, indeed, that he and other pundits find it difficult to point the finger at any single player.

    You can, though. Play the Portfolio.com brackets and pick your own culprit.

  172. jcer says:

    The appeal of Hoboken, is the convenience of city that small, walkable, etc. The Location and convenience of being so close to Manhattan and yet it costs about half as much to own, renting is a little closer Manhattan rents are approx 1.5x what Hoboken is. The bars are not actually for residents it is for the aging frat boy crowd that lives with their parents in suburban NJ. Thankfully that is only Friday and Saturday nights. The location is particularly appealing to people who work downtown and on NJ’s gold coast which is mostly financial services. That said I keep scratching my head at the increase considering the economic prospect for some 60% of the residents(Previously most wealthy residents) looks particularly dim. I cannot really fathom it as I am approaching my home purchase with trepidation after seeing hundreds of people handed pink slips at work.

  173. jcer says:

    Sean, they will give almost anyone an H1B visa, especially for computers. Most of these people have something known as an MCA which is like a community college degree. I fully support the idea of bring technical experts here when there is a shortage in supply but the H1B program is a joke in my opinion and is really only used to suppress wages.

  174. grim says:

    From Global Insight (no link):

    S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

    April 2008

    “House Prices Still Dropping at Record Setting Rates”

    Patrick Newport
    U.S. Economist
    Global Insight

    Bottom Line

    ● The downward trend in prices continued during April: the 10-City Composite Index dropped 16.3% year-on-year (a record decline), while the 20-City Composite was down 15.3% (also a record).
    ● Year-over-year prices retreated in all 20 cities covered; adjusted for inflation, prices declined even more since the CPI was rising 3.9% y/y in April.
    ● In 13 cities, prices were falling at record year-on-year rates; in 10 cities, they were dropping at double-digit rates; in seven cities, the drop was 20% or more.
    ● Las Vegas (down 26.8%), followed by Miami (down 26.7%) and Phoenix (down 25.0%), reported the steepest declines.
    ● House prices still have room to drop a lot more.

    Outlook

    House prices, according to the Case-Shiller house price indexes (but not according to other measures), are still in a freefall. The 10-City Composite Index dropped 16.4% year-on-year (a record decline) in April, while the 20-City Composite was down 15.3% (also a record).

    In 13 cities, prices were falling at record year-on-year (y/y) rates. Ten cities posted double-digit declines. In seven cities, prices were down more than 20%. Worst of all, in many places, prices are still dropping at accelerated rates.

    The Case-Shiller indices are dropping much more than other house price measures. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) monthly house price purchase index, for example, was down 4.6% (y/y) in April, while the National Association of Realtor’s median price was down 8.5%.

    Unfortunately, all methods devised to measure house prices have shortcomings, and it is impossible to state with any precision how much house prices are actually falling nationally or locally.

    During 1990–2000, the Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Index was flat, after adjusting for inflation. During 2000–06, its real value rose 78%. The index has dropped about 24% in real terms since peaking. But given the current level of unsold homes on the market, the number of foreclosures already in or about to enter the pipeline, and the run-up in prices over 2000–06, this index is likely to drop much more.

  175. Seneca says:

    grim 162

    I have always understood the financial reasons that builders build the bigger houses. It has always been a disappointment to me as I prefer a smaller (not small but smaller than a McM) house with a large lot where one could host a wiffle ball game.

    I also understand that Americans are so obsessed with having “stuff” that these larger homes with their oversized three car garages were warranted ’cause you have to have a place to put your “stuff”. I am a minimalist and don’t like “stuff” so aside from the basics, I don’t need an oversized house.

    I would argue that at some point, you have to consider the carrying costs of an oversized home with its high heating/AC costs and enormous taxes. NYC Condos with high common charges and taxes sell for less than slightly smaller condos with lower monthly costs.

    Having a larger lawn usually means a few more passes back and forth with the mower. More green, less “bonus rooms” I say. But I am odd so….

  176. make money says:

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — India’s central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate for the second time this month on Tuesday in a move to curb soaring inflation. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate by 50 basis points to 8.5%. It also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 8.75%. The latest interest rate hike comes on the heels of a 25 basis points repo rate hike delivered on June 11

  177. NNJ says:

    160, they are legit, I have used them twice. They hook you up will local-mom-pop banks that are usually a little lower than other places.

  178. Aaron says:

    Kettle #7
    Kettle, here is the poor man’s 7 year bankruptcy plan.

    #1 Stop paying your credit card
    #2 Get caller ID and don’t answer the phone calls from creditors
    #3 Pay cash for everything
    #4 After 7 years(statutue of limitations) your debts are gone and you didn’t pay a dime.

    I don’t think it is going to take long for debtors to figure this one out.

  179. thatBIGwindow says:

    Aaron: Also, buy a new car. You won’t be able to get one for at least 7 years.

  180. make money says:

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2008-06-23-utility-bills-shut-off-disconnect_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

    Ben, hank, george and everyone else in Washington should be ashamed of themselves for bailing out Wall Street and the expnse of Inflation. Look what they have done.

    Shame. Shame. Shame.

  181. make money says:

    from #183 Above

    Ginger Hall, 34, got a shutoff notice from her Sacramento power company in March when she racked up about $500 in overdue bills after a broken furnace forced her to use electric heaters. She paid the debt with help from LIHEAP. Hall, who is married with four children, says their $45,000 household income is normally sufficient, but not with food and gas prices soaring. “You can’t have your utilities getting shut off, but when they double each month, it catches you off guard. You have to juggle and make it work,” she says.

  182. kettle1 says:

    Aaron,

    that will not work, as with current laws/rules, the CC companies can get a judgment against you and garnish your wages if i understand correctly.

    Given existing laws associated with CC debt i believe the only way put for most people would be a congressional loophole.

    Can any of the finance guru’s here tell me if this is accurate?

  183. John says:

    Aaron Says:

    Actually, better to get a ton of credit cards and home equity loans and borrow every last nickel you can and sell everything you own for cash then go to a country without extridition and take the money with you. After seven years you can walk back into the US without owning a dime. Some third word countries you can live like a king for $20 a day, maid, cook, butler etc. If they can’t reach you within 7 years the money you took is all yours and you don’t have to pay back any debts.

  184. John says:

    A 34 year old girl with a hot name like Ginger Hall should be able to get a money honey to pay those bills. Why should she get assistance from the govt.?

  185. make money says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/25345599

    Wachovia hires Goldman for loan portfolio advice.

    This is definitively not good. They have been quiet for some time and their Golden West loans are pulling them down day by day.

    It’s a nice way for Goldman to charge some fees before they collapse.

    “After long and extensive research from our top consultants we regret to inform you that you will be forced to claim Bankrupty and reorganize your debts”

    Oh, here’s a bill for 50 Million.

  186. make money says:

    Once Goldman realizes that they will implode, then top clients will get a call that says Short WB it’s a lock.

    That’s why they’re the genious they are they backstab everyone. Just like they were shorting the subprime scum they were selling out the front door.

  187. Aaron says:

    Kettle, most CC companies write it off if the amount is under 20,000$.

    Oh, and buying a new car is just plain stupid. Buy a cheap beater and save your money.

  188. njpatient says:

    151 secondary

    “get used to it. that is the mantra for philly realtors.”

    Thanks
    I’m getting into practice.

    “So, are you telling me that Philly area realty is so crappy that it couldn’t even generate gains during a BUBBLE??!?!?!?!”

  189. njpatient says:

    167/68 tbw/stu

    Re Hoboken – can’t stop laughing.

  190. Pat says:

    njp

    Philly agent response, “No. In Philly, we just know how to maintain appropriate inventory levels. In addition, OUR lenders are not greedy, nor do OUR brokers have a tendency to misrepresent income on applicatons.

  191. njpatient says:

    170 SG

    That’s well-written. This bit struck me: “Families, real estate investors and companies are obliged to use their disposable income to pay their creditors.”

    That’s how life SHOULD be, but hasn’t been for a couple of generations. The turn of phrase implies what we all know to be true: it’s a shocking state of affairs when folks have to fund their revolving debt with their income, rather than with more debt. Horrors! The latter had become de rigeur, and folks now stop and stare at the sight of the former.

    What really curls my nose hair is the sound of the economic pundits on the teevee talking about how the “credit crisis” is caused by the fact that banks are having to fund debts with cash, as if it’s an outlandish concept, and as if the financial world could perhaps be cured by the abolishment of the concepts of cash or income.

    Income is the problem!!!

  192. kettle1 says:

    I just got an e-mail from a friend. him and his wife just close don a house in edison. They apparently worked some magic with the realtor/loan officer and have dumped their 30K in CC debt into the mortgage and put 3% down. The have a 12% fixed rate and were over 600 credit score. They agree that the housing bubble is bursting, but figure that since mortgage debt is not secured in NJ that if the economy turns downward to much that they will just walk away from the house with out having to worry about CC companies hounding them for years!!!

    the wave of the future?

  193. 3b says:

    #194 njpatient: And for further nose hari curling, what is really galling, is all the talking heads who are now saying nobody could have seen this mess coming.

  194. 3b says:

    #195 kettle 12% fixed rate!! Ugly!!

  195. GetAClueNJ says:

    There really is no hope for people.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121426681678998589.html?mod=hps_us_pageone

    “Dick Whitmore, a 47-year-old construction superintendent in Phoenix, put up just $250 to move into a three-bedroom home that he purchased in March for $189,000. He says the down payment and closing costs, which came to about $12,000, were paid by the family selling the home via AmeriDream Inc., a down-payment-assistance program based in Gaithersburg, Md. “My wife and I are hardworking people, but to come up with five or six grand, that’s next to impossible,” he said.

    Gloria Harris, a 57-year-old human-resources consultant, says she couldn’t have bought her $216,000 two-bedroom condo in McLean, Va., in January without the $16,000 contributed by the seller to cover the down payment and closing costs. “I was having a hard time just trying to save because I was spending from week to week trying to live,” she says.”

    Are these people serious? Should they really be home owners at these price levels? I would have to say no. You better hang on to your britches because this is going to get a whole lot worse of crap like this is still going on.

  196. kettle1 says:

    RE 195

    i do not know the details of how they worked the numbers, but i imagine that had to be some very creative paperwork!

  197. njpatient says:

    195 kettle

    12% sounds ugly, but I wonder what their CC rate was on the $30K.

    Sounds like a great scam in any event.

  198. instigator says:

    170 SG

    Thanks for the article link. Fascinating.

  199. John says:

    Don’t laugh but in the early 90s people had coops that were so awful the maint was several hundred a month higher than the rent you could get. When “you bought” the unit you were actually paid to take it.

  200. njpatient says:

    “My wife and I are hardworking people, but to come up with five or six grand, that’s next to impossible,” he said.

    When did “hardworking” become a euphemism for “underemployed”?

  201. GetAClueNJ says:

    #195

    No way. Do you know who the lender was so I can start shorting them? That’s ridiculous.

    And how is mortgage debt not secured? Isn’t the house what secures the debt?

  202. njpatient says:

    Hey – the “who killed the economy” link is dead – must have gotten too many hits.

    I can’t wait to see whether the NAR is on the list.

    I’ll be there’s an option for blaming the media.

  203. House Hunter says:

    poll from cnbc

    With rising inflation and slowing growth, what’s the right move for the Fed?
    *responses

    Raise rates to fight inflation 59%

    Cut rates to spur growth 9.7%

    Leave rates unchanged 31%

  204. Stu says:

    Kettle1: (195)

    12% fixed rate to stop the CC company from calling? I’d take the 7% and would unplug the phone.

    Want to know when housing has bottomed and there is ‘blood’ in the streets?

    When we get back to the reality that it takes 20% down to buy a home and when owning a home becomes cheaper then renting. This was the old paradigm. Sure, the monthly nut of owning was a few Benji’s larger than what you would pay in rent. But the mortgage interest deduction, coupled with the issue that you were paying your own principal would make it a no-brainer. I remember these days well. They were all the way, way, back in the 90s.

  205. instigator says:

    205 njpatient

    Of course NAR won’t be on the list.
    “Not Accepting Responsiblity”

  206. Tom says:

    Of course NAR won’t be on the list.
    “Not Accepting Responsiblity”

    Well that’s a whole lot better than “National Asset Rapists”

  207. randyj says:

    (109) why the hell is Philadelphia not counted as a metro area for the purposes of these Case-Shiller polls????? is it part of the NY metro area? isn’t Philadelphia still one of the biggest cities in this country?

  208. kettle1 says:

    204

    perhaps i am using incorrect terms,but if you take a mortgage for $X and then walk away from the home/mortgage sometime later when the house is only worth some value less then X, the bank cannot come after you for the difference (at least in NJ). in some places the bank has legal recourse to try and collect any difference between what the house is worth and what you owe on the mortgage.

  209. AL says:

    just got an e-mail from a friend. him and his wife just close don a house in edison. They apparently worked some magic with the realtor/loan officer and have dumped their 30K in CC debt into the mortgage and put 3% down. The have a 12% fixed rate and were over 600 credit score. They agree that the housing bubble is bursting, but figure that since mortgage debt is not secured in NJ that if the economy turns downward to much that they will just walk away from the house with out having to worry about CC companies hounding them for years!!!

    the wave of the future?

    This is called mortgage fraud – willingly admit to it especially in an email – is stupid.

    Emails are not private and harder to delete completely than paper.

  210. MikeH says:

    Could someone tell me if my reasoning makes sense? I am trying to figure out a rough price for houses in a particular neighborhood. There aren’t a lot of similar houses being sold so comps are questionable or out of date. Apparently the asking prices keep going up but I can see that the sale prices are going down using sites like cyberhomes. Is it legit to compare two somewhat similar houses based on their assessments? All of the houses in the neighborhood were reassessed in 2007.

    I calculated a ratio of sale price vs. assessed value. When I plot the ratios over time, I get a line with a negative slope (ie prices of houses are dropping) and I can get an average ratio of what a house might cost in relation to its assessment.

    Is that a legit way to do comps or should I wait for my realtor to get back with houses that may or may not be similar?

  211. Tom says:

    212, it’s not fraud.

    They put themselves in a better position and I think they intend to keep up the payments. If in the future they can’t, then they’re better off than if they didn’t do what they did.

    No fraud has actually been committed.

    It’s not like they did the whole deal with the intention of bailing. Which some people do.

  212. bairen not a girlyman says:

    #207 Stu,

    your ideas are so last century. come on man, this is the era of the momentum of money and leverage. We can borrow up the wazoo and run our pesronal fiancial lives like little hedge funds.

  213. Bklynhawk says:

    Seneca #178-

    Your comments about “Stuff” reminded me of George Carlin’s routine:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dn1u6tzwRxA

    I would have nominated Carlin as the spokesperson for the New Jersey Real Estate Report. His humor reminds me of the commentary on here from time to time.
    JM

  214. CB in SJ says:

    And yet the NAR has this on their website:

    “WASHINGTON, June 09, 2008 A modest gain in the level of home sales is possible over the next couple months, and an improvement is forecast for the second half of this year as more buyers are able to access affordable mortgages, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.”
    ————-

    Re: Philly–a recent front page headline of the Philly Inquirer: “Center City condos thriving.” Lower in the article is this statement: “Not surprisingly, given the overall real estate market, some condo plans have not come to fruition. More than a dozen projects have been canceled, delayed or postponed over the last 18 months.”

    Alas, the Inquirer was once a fine newspaper.
    ————————

    njpatient: thanks for the help yesterday. Some of these right-wing nut jobs are like a pit bull; once they latch onto an idea, they won’t let it go no matter how hard you beat them about the head with facts.

  215. kettle1 says:

    Tom,

    is correct, as communicated to e, they intend to pay the debt, but chose this situation so that in the case of financial distress they have a better option (default on the home loan instead of CC debt)available to them that will potentially be less damaging. they have not communicated any intent to defraud. then again i am not an attorney

  216. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Re: 12% Mortgage in Edison!!

    Those numbers don’t add up, Ket….did you say they CLOSED on this mortgage?? 3% down payment sounds like an FHA loan. But how on earth could the house appraise with an extra $30K of Credit Card baggage?

  217. kettle1 says:

    218 fiddy,

    thats why i said that someone must have worked some magic with the paperwork. i am not a RE guy but i dont see that being an easy setup in the current market. and yes he said “closed”. we shall see.

    is it possible for some sort of seller concession to have been finagled to pull this off? maybe the deal isnt really closed yet and they are assuming it will?

  218. BC Bob says:

    Whatever happened to no contagion and goldilocks?

  219. kettle1 says:

    fiddy

    <i.But how on earth could the house appraise with an extra $30K of Credit Card baggage?

    granite counter tops?

  220. kettle1 says:

    fiddy

    But how on earth could the house appraise with an extra $30K of Credit Card baggage?

    granite counter tops?

  221. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    A seller’s concession above the norm (around 6% of sale price) would raise flags in an FHA loan.

    Would love to know more about this deal.

    Maybe it was the Stainless Steel Appliances!!

  222. John says:

    When I bought in the Fall of 1992 the best rate was Independence (now soveign bank) and they required a min of 25% down and closing costs had to be paid out of pocket. Had to show you had the 25% in the bank already, not gift from relatives or 401K loans. When we get back to that level of scrutiney I will be happy. People throw around the 20% figure but I think that is a chump change downpayment.

  223. Pat says:

    Kettle, that place in R-ville is too far to commute into Philly. And it’s overpriced.

    Isn’t njp going to be taking the R5 into Philly?

  224. 3b says:

    Maybe it was the olympic sie bed room.

  225. thatBIGwindow says:

    Maybe Suzanne researched it before they bought?

  226. 3b says:

    #221 BC Bob: What are your thoughts on JP Morgan buying Wachovia rumors?

  227. John says:

    ‘Day of Action’ planned as WaMu Shareholders Vote on $7 billion deal

    With Washington Mutual (WaMu) shareholders set to vote tomorrow on a $7 billion buy in into the bank led by private equity giant Texas Pacific Group (TPG), Seattle-area residents and workers will hold a series of actions to highlight the deal’s potentially “toxic” impact on consumers and the economy. Wearing HazMat suits and carrying signs, protesters will call attention to the deal’s potential to expose consumers, taxpayers, and the economy to unacceptably high levels of risk — including through increased fees, credit card interest rates, and questionable regulatory and business practices.

    SCHEDULE OF EVENTS:
    — 3:00 PM — “Toxic Deal” Protest at WaMu Shareholders’ Meeting (18525 36th Avenue South, SeaTac, Washington 98188). Seattle
    rea residents, bank consumers, and community members dressed in HazMat suits with signs and banners will protest the TPG-led buyout of WaMu.
    — 4:30 PM — Protesters Head to WaMu World Headquarters (1301 Second Ave, Seattle, WA 98101). Residents and workers will take their protest to WaMu headquarters to raise concerns over private equity buyouts of our nation’s largest banks.

  228. A seller’s concession above the norm (around 6% of sale price) would raise flags in an FHA loan.

    This is what sub-prime loans used to be like when I was working as a mortgage processor in the late 90’s. Odd ball, somewhat risky, and unconventional loans. Given that the rate is %12 fixed it wouldn’t be unreasonable to assume that that is exactly what we have here.
    If it was a 5/25 or 7/23 it would be an absolute clincher as a traditional sub.

  229. kettle1 says:

    tosh,

    so a bank would still take this loan given a high enough interest rate? without some “creative” paperwork done to wrap in the CC debt?
    honestly, as fiddy said, i would be a little surprised if this really is closed, i will e-mail him and see if he will share anymore info with me.

  230. njpatient says:

    212 al

    “This is called mortgage fraud”

    No, it’s not. Whatever other merits (or lack thereof) it may have, it does not fulfill the elements of fraud.

  231. John says:

    You guys have to check out this realtors web site!!!!!!!!!!

    I thought I had trouble spelling words this one takes the cake, crazy english and grammer.

    http://www.riterealtygroup.com/Property.html

  232. #232 – Well a “bank” probably wouldn’t. A private lender, which is what most sub’s used to be would. As long as they’re not looking to sell the loan on the underwriting standards are whatever they choose, no need to be creative. That %12 might make the risk worth while for a lender.

  233. njpatient says:

    216 CB

    “njpatient: thanks for the help yesterday. ”

    I’d like to be like BC Bob and never engage the political discussions, but sometimes the lies, innuendo and personal vitriol get to be too much. I’m a family values kind guy, you know.

  234. njpatient says:

    219 kettle

    “need a pace to rent???”

    Nah – grim already fixed me up.

  235. njpatient says:

    question for the gang – any opinions about exclusive buyer’s agents (i.e., agents who only represent buyers and never sellers)?

  236. njpatient says:

    221 BC

    “Whatever happened to no contagion and goldilocks?”

    Goldilocks is dead.
    Post mortem? Contagion.

  237. lisoosh says:

    # njpatient Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 10:39 am

    “117 grim
    “You forgot young and beautiful.”

    I think you meant bold and beautiful.
    Or young and restless.

    Like sands through the hourglass, so are the profits of our flips.”

    Bwahahahaha! These are the Days of our Lives All my Children – and we only have One Life to Live.

  238. lisoosh says:

    grim Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 11:09 am

    “I would love to see smaller homes being built”

    ‘Not until land prices fall enough.”

    I would surmise that as the bubble pops, land prices will also fall considerably. They rose just as precipitously, if not more.

  239. njpatient says:

    224 fiddy

    “Maybe it was the Stainless Steel Appliances!!”

    I hear the really desperate sellers are throwing in a free high-end pickle slicer.

  240. njpatient says:

    234 john

    the worst thing about that realtor’s site is the wallpaper – nearly crashed my computer!!

  241. BC Bob says:

    “Had to show you had the 25% in the bank already, not gift from relatives or 401K loans.”

    John,

    In addition to that, you had to show that you had closing costs in the bank, no gifts/loans/coke/steroids.

  242. skep-tic says:

    #238

    “any opinions about exclusive buyer’s agents”

    I like the idea, but I still think the incentive structure for these agents is perverse. I would like to use one and set up an alternative incentive plan that aligns the agent better with the buyer (me), but from what I’ve heard on this board, that is a no-go. So bottom line is that I am skeptical

  243. Hehehe says:

    Can we impeach Christopher Dodd?

  244. Secondary Market says:

    I’m going to be real honest here and hope I don’t sound like Imus but when I first read her website slogan “let us to be assisted”
    It reminded me of Japanese street signs that are converted to English that do not translate properly. Coincidentally the agent’s name is MISS WI.

  245. njpatient says:

    secondary

    “Coincidentally the agent’s name is MISS WI.”

    She’s from Wisconsin, and she’s GORGEOUS.

  246. Sean says:

    re: #114 make money – Credit is the next shoe.

    PNC bank is shutting down its commercial loans, and cancelling business credit lines and credit cards.

    Here is the letter they are sending out.

    http://datadepository.googlepages.com/pncbankletter001.jpg

  247. Secondary Market says:

    Well I’ve never been to Wisconsin so I don’t know how their street signs translate.

  248. John says:

    My favorite house from that realtors site!!!

    EXCELLENT CONDION &CUTE CAPE
    516 sount main st.11520
    School distric 26

  249. John says:

    FILL OUT FORM
    E-MAIL
    Miss Wi wants to know are you?

    LOOKING FOR BUY APARTMENT
    LOOKING FOR BUYING HOUSE
    LOOKING FOR SELL PROPERTY
    LOOKING FOR RENT

  250. In addition to that, you had to show that you had closing costs in the bank, no gifts/loans/coke/steroids.

    Yeah, but everyone borrowed these anyway, they just borrowed them a couple of months in advance. If the bank was requesting 4 months of records people borrowed 6 months in advance so it looked like they had the cash the whole time. We used to regularly advise people of this for purchases so their loans didn’t get declined.

  251. NJGator says:

    Can someone with GSMLS access please let me know what the closed prices are (if available) for the following homes in Millburn? Thanks.

    4 Haran Circle
    356 Wyoming Ave

  252. John says:

    mls#2059932 Hamptons comp killer
    15 Argonne Rd, Hampton Bays, NY
    Asking Price $368k as of 05/29/2008
    Asking Price $385k as of 03/22/2008
    Previously Sold in 2006 for $525k

  253. 3b says:

    #238 njpatient; What about presenting the offer to the sellers realtor directly, in addition to presenting the offer to the homeowner directly (to ensure they get the offer).

    That is the strategy I plan to utilize, it will be difficult, but short of using a buyers agent, I do not see any other way.

  254. make money says:

    http://loanworkout.org/2008/06/marshals-make-millions-serving-foreclosure-papers/

    Marshals make millions serving Foreclosure papers

    Why didn’t I think of this? How doe sthis work for NY and NJ?

  255. Seneca says:

    Hey, has it occurred to anyone else that per John’s much earlier comment on Charlotte, he must have been a Sex & The City fan? Who would have figured? (Or is this old news?)

  256. lisoosh says:

    Credit card story:

    Knew a family of siblings from abroad, over here for many years legally. Couple decided to return “home” and maxed out their credit cards, taking as much cash and stuff with them as they could.

    One however, was extra, extra stupid and greedy. He worked for a store owner and one of his duties was to take cash to the bank. He stole a big chunk of cash and told the owner that the FBI had arrived with a “sting”, and taken the money. He flew off a day or so later.

    Meanwhile of course, the store owner contacted the FBI wanting to know what was going on, as the money was perfectly legit.
    Of course, then he learned the truth.

    A year later, our hero decided to come back to the US for a visit, underestimated immigrations computer database and was promptly arrested.

    His more cautious sister returned, filed for bancruptcy and walked away clean with around $50,000 she had taken out of the country.

  257. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    I was just out in the car and heard a commercial for this Bergen County Realtors website. On Newsradio 880 for crying out loud!

    Check out the tabs for “What they’re saying” and “The real deal”…..Magnificent!

    http://www.itsagoodtime.com/

  258. grim says:

    I don’t know what is more upsetting, the website or the fact that my dues went to pay for it.

  259. Tom says:

    260 lisoosh,

    That reminds me of stories I heard related to some of the camera and electronic stores in brooklyn.

    They were scams to begin with. Advertising things at great deals but then doing a bait & switch or telling you that you have to pay extra for accessories that would normally come in the retail box.

    They would also have immigrants from israel get credit cards, max out the credit cards to purchase items for inventory, then go back.

  260. Stu says:

    From 50 cents cited realtor site:

    Invest in Your Future

    While the days of the “get rich quick” real estate market may be over for now, remember, that real estate is a longer-term investment that requires a look at the big picture.
    Real Estate Builds Value Over Time

    According to a recent Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies report, the rate of return on a housing investment dramatically increases the longer it is held. For instance, an owner whose home appreciates at a typical annual rate of 5 percent and who made a cash down payment of 10 percent will generally receive a 94 percent return after owning the home for only three years. After owning for five years, a homeowner can typically expect the rate of return to increase to 225 percent; after 10 years, the rate of return jumps to 623 percent.

    —-

    What the F? Does generally receive really mean one particular homeowner who bought a cape in Colorado struck oil when he planted a garden?

  261. lisoosh says:

    It never rains but it pours (in a good way):

    Mentioned the new job to one of the “homeroom mom’s” today. She actually works for one of the first customers I ever sold to at my old firm, and by all accounts I made a good impression on her boss, even all those years ago.

    Anyway – she expressed her frustration that she hadn’t known I was thinking about reentering the job market as she has been interviewing for sales and has been less than impressed with many of the applicants and would love someone with my background.
    Did I mention that their location is no more than 10 minutes from my house and she is more than happy to offer flexible hours and telecommuting?

    I love this networking thing. I’ll stick with the first offer for now as it is a solid salary without the headache of commission and quotas (better for a mortgage), but it is wonderful to have a back-up.

    Feeling very fortunate today.

  262. njpatient says:

    “I don’t know what is more upsetting, the website or the fact that my dues went to pay for it.”

    I just called them.

    Good times.

  263. njpatient says:

    I think Elizabeth is a bit distressed at the moment. She was stuttering “whu..wait…” as I was hanging up.

  264. 3b says:

    #262 grim: I will be dropping them an e-mail tonight. Perhaps we all should.

  265. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Realtor Math

    See how easy it is to bogus up some statistics!?!?!?

    10% down payment, say $50K to $60K. (How many buyers have that much cash to put down?)
    A “typical” appreciation rate of 5% (where???)
    Your DP almost doubles (94%) in 3 years!!
    And 623% increase in 10 years…Magnificent!!

  266. njpatient says:

    264 stu

    They’re almost certainly referring to ROR on actually dollars invested and discounting all other costs.

    So if you buy a $500K house, and your down-payment is $100, and you sell the house for $500,623.00 ten years later, your ROR for the ten years is 623%?

    Lies and damn lies, I assume.

  267. lisoosh says:

    # njpatient Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 3:12 pm

    “I just called them.

    Good times.”

    At these times it is so obvious why you became a lawyer.

  268. Stu says:

    While perusing the “Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies” website looking for that lovely data on the 600%+ return, I stumbled upon this beauty from February 2003.

    The American Dream of Homeownership:
    From Cliché to Mission
    Presentation by Angelo R. Mozilo

    http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/homeownership/M03-1_mozilo.pdf

    Try not to throw up on your monitor while you read it.

    Need an incentive to read it?

    “One of the more obvious resolutions to the Money Gap (why minorities have trouble purchasing homes) is the elimination of down
    payment requirements for low-income and minority borrowers. Current down
    payment requirements of 10 percent or less add absolutely no value to the quality
    of the loan. It is the willingness and the ability of a borrower to make monthly
    payments that are the determinants of loan quality.”

  269. grim says:

    4 Haran Circle – Still UC 6/16 was acd
    356 Wyoming Ave – Closed 05/22/08 at $580,000

  270. Stu says:

    It is the willingness and the ability of a borrower to make monthly
    payments that are the determinants of loan quality.

    Repeat this over and over! Mozilo should be in jail!

  271. thatBIGwindow says:

    It is always a great time to buy in Prestigious Blue Ribbon Minutes from NYC Wall St Bonus Bergen County

    Contact a Realtor today

  272. Pat says:

    I wonder what happens if I call that goodtime number and ask for Suzanne?

  273. grim says:

    No, not Suzanne, for a good time call Elizabeth.

  274. PGC says:

    Tom

    40 Westbrook Midland park. We talked about this last week. It went through the Sheriff sale on 6/20 for $299K. That was the last list price I saw on Realtor.com.

    I drove past on Sunday and there were a lot of cars and a Box van in the driveway. I don’t know if they were getting ready to move out or if this was normal. The sale was to 40 Westbrook LLC. I think I’ll keep an eye on it to see how it ends up. Some people in that area are blowing out the capes in full Central Hall Colonials.

  275. Stu says:

    “And finally, it must be recognized that borrowers
    with credit scores below what is currently defined as “creditworthy” levels can still
    be acceptable credit risks. Thus, the credit score bar dividing creditworthy from
    high-risk borrowers, must be substantially lowered by the GSEs, the secondary
    market in general, and with bank regulators. The GSEs have made good progress
    over the last few years in expanding their credit criteria, but I encourage them to
    become much more aggressive in this regard.”

  276. Richie says:

    Check out the tabs for “What they’re saying” and “The real deal”…..Magnificent!

    http://www.itsagoodtime.com/

    I was scared to click on that link. I really thought it was a p0rn site.

    -R

  277. Pat says:

    Do some of these clowns (present company excepted, of course) even know how often people make fun of them?

  278. Stu says:

    One last one. You can’t make this stuff up!

    But from my point of view, if 80 percent of the sub-prime borrowers
    are managing to make ends meet and make the mortgage payment on time, then,
    shouldn’t we, as a Nation, be justifiably proud that we are dramatically increasing
    homeownership opportunities for those who have been traditionally left behind?

    I can summarize the PDF for you. Angelo thinks that there should have been no regulation or lending standards. Foreclosure rates mean nothing as people are able to buy homes (even if it is just temporary. Forget credit worthiness, we can close the income gap by putting people in homes who can’t afford them and then see if they can make the payments. And by the way, ignore the BS on predatory lending since it only serves to make it more difficult for people who can’t afford homes to obtain one. CRAZY!!!

  279. njpatient says:

    “I really thought it was a p0rn site.”

    It is, but (as Elaine would say on Seinfeld) fake fake fake fake.

  280. gary says:

    Pat [282],

    Ask yourself what line of work they’re in and you’ve answered your question.

  281. 3b says:

    #279 Some people in that area are blowing out the capes in full Central Hall Colonials.

    Why? That is a very risky proposition in this environment.

  282. njpatient says:

    currently on CNN/Money.com:

    “4 steps to a housing rebound
    1:42pm: The pain that homeowners and homebuilders are feeling now is a sign that things are going to get better. more”

  283. alia says:

    credit card anecdata:
    saw a 70 yr old friend today. she and her husband are having trouble finding regular work; Staples won’t hire them. (they both have had high powered careers in the past). I mentioned my fears about inflation/deflation, and she mentioned that, much to her chagrin, she had some serious credit card debt. she’s paying it slowly off, but says that she plans to keep them all as her emergency fund. (yea, now i get to worry about her, too…)

    114, make: how do you think the option arms will affect things? (they have their last big reset in 2012, so i’ve been assuming no bottom until then)

  284. BC Bob says:

    “Why?”

    3b,

    To my knowledge, nobody has gone broke betting against the intelligence of the American public.

  285. John says:

    So if you buy a $500K house, and your down-payment is $100, and you sell the house for $500,623.00 ten years later, your ROR for the ten years is 623%?

    what about the 250K in interest payments and 70K in taxes paid on the house in those ten years and the fact that normally home price increases barely outpace inflation so the fact you are selling your house for more in ten years is mainly due to the present money is equal to the money of ten years ago.

  286. 3b says:

    #287 njpatient: I think then that they are going to be feeling a whole lot more pain as we move forward.

    But hey night is darkest just before the morn.

  287. Tom says:

    PGC,

    40 Westbrook Midland Park. The link in case anyone is interested.

    I noticed that a lot of properties sold at auction are to LLC’s commonly with the property address in the name. From what I understand, this way they can isolate any risk to an individual property. If you were an investor that purchases a lot of foreclosures and you wind up getting one that really kills you financially, the losses are contained within that one house.

    This is a good article I found on the subject but it is written with an Illinois perspective.

    If it was the original purchaser moving out, then they’ve probably been planning for this to do it so suddenly and not give the purchaser the headache of trying to evict them. Since there is a 10 day redemption period in NJ and they were moving so shortly after the auction, it is possible that the investor gave them a little something to sign a letter indicating they waive their redemption rights and will move out quickly.

  288. CB in SJ says:

    This has to be the most amazing section of the itsagoodtime.com website:

    Tips for Making Your Offer Attractive to Sellers

    The two best things you can do to increase your chances of getting the property you want is to bid competitively and minimize restrictions.

    While it may be tempting to start low to try to get a deal, this is not always the best idea. Why? If your bid is too far below asking price, the seller is likely to quickly reject your offer and move on to the next buyer. A Realtor can advise you where to begin, particularly given that the market has recently returned to a more normal state. Conversely, you’ll want to make sure that you don’t overbid and pay too much.

    Secondly, restrictions on your offer such as needing to sell your home first or delaying the closing date can make your offer unappealing to the seller. The key to getting the home you want for the price you want to pay is to partner with a Realtor. They are experts in real estate, skilled negotiators and can advise on bidding based on your financial position, market conditions and similarly priced homes that have recently sold.

  289. 3b says:

    #290 John; Call elizabeth, she will explain that all away for you.

    After all she is a professional Realtor(tm). And after all, it is better in Bergen.

  290. John says:

    Tell your 70 year old friend to buy a cemetery plot and pre-pay for her funeral as they can’t take that back in a bankrupcty.

    Maybe she can click on that magic staples button and make her problems go away.

    Seriously a girl I know was having trouble making ends meet and her three choices were, cutting back, working the drivethrough at mcdonalds or selling her soiled pantys on the web. For now she is cutting back but she told me she has her pride and there is no way she is working at McDonalds.

  291. 3b says:

    #292 How scary, relators advising based on one’s financial condition.

  292. Tom says:

    PGC,

    Also in regard to blowing on the capes into colonials. I ran across something a few months ago. There’s at least one builder in the area that does things like that using modular building methods.

    There was a youtube video from a different company. They showed how they tore down a roof and set the new second story all in one day. It was pretty neat.

  293. make money says:

    Senators voted Tuesday to limit debate on massive housing legislation — a move that could enable the chamber to approve the wide-ranging proposals quickly.
    The Senate vote, 83-to-9, means there is substantial support for the legislation, which would enable the Federal Housing Administration to back $300 billion of troubled home loans, among other moves.
    President Bush has threatened to veto the package due to a provision that would use public money to buy foreclosed homes.

    300 billion here and 300 billion there. Why are we not protesting in Washington again. AMAZING!!!

  294. John says:

    Home prices could drop another 10%, says Patrick Newport of Global Insight. Unless inventory numbers start coming down, prices will continue to fall, he says.

  295. John says:

    info@njrealtor.com

    Lets all email her and ask her how great real estate is!!!

  296. make money says:

    Grim,

    Can you unite the People of this republic for a march to capitol hill?

    MM

  297. njpatient says:

    289 BC

    “To my knowledge, nobody has gone broke betting against the intelligence of the American public.”

    Twain, right?

  298. njpatient says:

    292 Tom

    “From what I understand, this way they can isolate any risk to an individual property. If you were an investor that purchases a lot of foreclosures and you wind up getting one that really kills you financially, the losses are contained within that one house.”

    And when you say “they”, you’re talking about an RE investment business that is being set up in a manner such that the corporate veil cannot be pierced with the express intent of not having to pay their debts on a home despite having the means to do so.

    Remember this, all you who find yourself in a state of high moral dudgeon upon hearing about regular citizens “walking away.”

  299. make money says:

    114, make: how do you think the option arms will affect things? (they have their last big reset in 2012, so i’ve been assuming no bottom until then)

    You don’t have to wait for the last reset. After 80% of air deflation is done then you should wait two years to work itself trough the system and then you’re nibbing at the bottom.

    In reality, you don’t really need to be at the bottom but the pride and the joy you feel when you put yourself and your family ahead of the curve by a decade is worth it’s way in gold/crude.

  300. John says:

    TMA $0.20 -$0.03 -13.04%
    As of 4:00PM 06/24/08
    THORNBURG MTG INC NYSE

    When it hits a penny I am buying the whole damm company just for fun.

  301. njpatient says:

    295 john

    heh heh heh you said “making ends meet” and “panties” in the same post heh heh heh.

  302. NJGator says:

    274 – Thanks Grim. If I recall correctly, 356 Wyoming was last listed at $665k. That’s a nice almost lowball for prestigious Millburn : )

  303. John says:

    Look at how bad Thormburg was as an investment. Took only three years to turn one thousand into ten bucks.

    Value of $1000 invested in TMA
    YTD 3 Months 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years
    $24.89 $203.54 $8.97 $9.94 $14.81

  304. kettle1 says:

    why not buy a home then using an LLC and rent it to yourself? then you are insulated from a default.

    i know this isnt a new idea, so why doesnt it work, or why do people not do it?

  305. Tom says:

    njpatient,

    “And when you say “they”, you’re talking about an RE investment business that is being set up in a manner such that the corporate veil cannot be pierced with the express intent of not having to pay their debts on a home despite having the means to do so.”

    The reasons don’t always have such an illicit intent. When dealing with foreclosures, you have to assume more risk because even with very good research you might miss some things. You take possession of a home through an auction and there turns out to be something devastatingly wrong with the property. There might be a worker accident that your insurance doesn’t cover for some reason. Who knows.

    But in most cases it’s probably that people that invest in foreclosures need to do so through private financing. The investors in one property may be different than the investors in another property.

  306. John says:

    The Truth behind Price Reductions
    Why are Realtors® advising some sellers to lower their price? The reason is that the 2008 market has changed. Realtors are not seeing the widespread, unprecedented double-digit appreciation rates that were common in 2005. Instead, they’re seeing single-digit appreciation rates more consistent with a stable market.

    However some sellers are pricing their homes as if the market were still supporting double-digit appreciation gains. This pricing strategy may be too aggressive for current market conditions. So, Realtors may recommend a “price reduction.” That does not mean homes are not appreciating. It simply means that they are not appreciating at the same level they were in 2005. Once price adjustments are made, many properties sell fairly quickly, some even with the bidding wars common during the boom years.

  307. BC Bob says:

    “Instead, they’re seeing single-digit appreciation rates more consistent with a stable market.”

    The Titanic was also stable as it was sinking.

  308. Sean says:

    XLF and UYG had huge volume today. Some must think the finacials have hit bottom and after tommorow’s FMOC meeting the price will go up,or perhaps some fools like to bet against Goldman.

    Either way tommorow will be an interesting day.

  309. scribe says:

    I went to the SIFMA conference today – for part of it, at least.

    Someone said something about a bill pending in NJ that would freeze ARM resets for 3 years (?)

  310. Tom says:

    ugh, I really need to start proofreading my posts

  311. make money says:

    why not buy a home then using an LLC and rent it to yourself? then you are insulated from a default.

    i know this isnt a new idea, so why doesnt it work, or why do people not do it?

    good luck getting a mortgage under a phony LLC

  312. 3b says:

    #313 sean:Some must think the finacials have hit bottom and after tommorow’s FMOC meeting the price will go up.

    Until Thursday when they realize financials have not hit bottom.

    As far as the Fed tomorrow. No change in rates of course,and some tough talk on inflation.

    And then the bearded one can put the rate hike decesion off until August.

  313. make money says:

    When it hits a penny I am buying the whole damm company just for fun.

    I love it!!

  314. njpatient says:

    310 Tom

    I didn’t say the intent was “illicit,” any more than I would ascribe the characterization to jingle mail. However, I would suggest that you were furthering my argument, rather than rebutting it, by giving a long list of liabilities that the LLC structure is intended to shield against.

    “you have to assume more risk because even with very good research you might miss some things. You take possession of a home through an auction and there turns out to be something devastatingly wrong with the property. There might be a worker accident that your insurance doesn’t cover for some reason. Who knows.”

    Those are all liabilities for which someone will be left holding the bag. The LLC structure is intended to make sure that that “someone” is not the purchaser of the property.

    “But in most cases it’s probably that people that invest in foreclosures need to do so through private financing.”

    Other than FHA loans, isn’t this true of most residential property purchases? Or are you referring to “private equity”?

  315. bairen says:

    #314 scribe

    If that’s accurate those nitwit politicians are simply driving up the cost of borrowing and the size of the downpayment for future buyers which will only increase the drop in property values.

    Many politicians tend to be fiscally illiterate and/or more short sighted then a sound byte. They can not see/comprehend/ or care about the consequences of their actions.
    Plus they are hypocrites. Sadly, these are their good points.

  316. make money says:

    TMA $0.20 -$0.03 -13.04%
    As of 4:00PM 06/24/08
    THORNBURG MTG INC NYSE

    When it hits a penny I am buying the whole damm company just for fun.

    it will cost you 770K do buy it at a penny.

  317. njpatient says:

    only $386K to get control of the company, though.

  318. grim says:

    I think the New Jersey Vulture Fund needs a ticker. Reverse merger?

  319. Essex says:

    266…nice to be in demand….after spending 13 years in sales (no more thanks) I do not miss the nonsense. Depending upon where you work it can be a real horrible way to make a living.

  320. Sean says:

    Re #313 3b.

    The FED does should not wait for the meeting to do nothing, tough talk will do nothing to slow infaltion. They should make a bold statement right now about inflation.

    The FED should announce an immediate 100 basis point tightening to address the inflation emergency.

    Or do we only have easing emergencies?

  321. Tom says:

    njpatient,

    By private financing I meant through private individuals not private lending institutions.

    LLC’s don’t completely eliminate liabilities, they just limit them. If you have 400k invested in a house that’s all you can lose, you’re not going to loose all your other houses, your own home, your car, etc.

    Someone is the purchaser of the property, that someone just happens to be a corporate entity. Debts and liabilities pass through to the owners of the LLC but they are capped to the amount invested.

    These types of protections are important otherwise small businesses may not want to start up.

    It’s just like with stocks. If you sell short there is no limit to how much you can lose as opposed to a normal purchase where the most you can lose is what you invested.

    I know that there are a lot of people that have a negative view of investors that deal with foreclosures, and for some people it’s well deserved. Especially with what’s been going on in the last few years. But that’s not always the case.

    Since these people moved out so quickly I’m guessing the investor might have helped them a long a little bit. Or it may just be that they didn’t mind moving out after living someplace rent free for so many months.

    People that invest in properties in pre-foreclosure or at the auction have the greatest ability to help the homeowner. People that want to be successful have this in mind and try to do just that. If you buy after the auction, the homeowner gains nothing.

  322. BC Bob says:

    “Or do we only have easing emergencies?”

    Sean [325]

    Yes, only when the Dow is called 3-4% lower or anytime a rogue trader is on the loose.

  323. NNJJEFF says:

    Can someone with MLs access give me address for
    #2821454
    thx in advance

  324. BC Bob says:

    “BlackRock Inc’s (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) president (BLK.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said on Tuesday the money management firm is bracing for a “much bigger” global economic slowdown, but said financial market declines have created some of the best buying opportunities ever for fixed-income money managers.”

    “Using a baseball reference, Kapito said the credit crisis is in the fourth inning, indicating he believes the crisis is nearly halfway over.” (EDIT: We’re gretting closer to reality. I have stated that we are in the bottom of the 3rd.)

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2432550820080624

  325. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    A little help from me friends…

    I have been having trouble with my access to Middlesex MLS. I use a “shared” login, which I’m sure the MLS doges are not too happy about.

    I can get in the system fine, the search functions work fine….but detailed listings do not appear on my screen. It is blank.

    What did they change in the last month or so???

  326. grim says:

    NNJJEFF,

    11 Poplar St

  327. njpatient says:

    Tom – I’m all for people investing in foreclosures. I’m also all for mom and pop opening a business and shielding themselves from liabilities of all sorts by incorporating.

    My only point was that people enter into all sorts of legal arrangements that permit them to avoid personal liabilities and dump those liabilities on the person with whom they have entered into the legal arrangement. I think you concluded that I find this objectionable. Quite the contrary, I think it’s fine.
    What I find objectionable is that, when the foregoing applies to mom or pop sans the business, people often seem to have some sort of moral objection to the person behaving in the same fashion. The specific issue I am addressing is that, in states where a mortgage is not fully recourse, individuals can walk away with nothing worse than a hit to their credit score. This is their legal right, and yet I hear constantly that these people should relieve the bank of it’s legal obligation for no other reason than altruism, because it’s the “morally proper” thing to do.

    We were talking past each other, I think.

  328. njpatient says:

    Where’d everybody go?

  329. verypatientwife says:

    hey what happened to propertyshark.com 6 free reports a day? They are downsizing too. Now its 4 !

  330. Tom says:

    “We were talking past each other, I think.”

    That’s what it looks like.

    What’s been going on recently is complicated. A lot of people are focusing on the primary mortgage market but that’s not where the problem was in my opinion.

    I have sympathy for some of the homeowners that were convinced that they needed to buy at a bad time because they wanted a nice home for their family and were afraid in a couple of years would be in an even worse position to buy homes based on the rate home prices were rising.

    Those that bought a home or cashed out up to 10 times their annual salary though I think got what they deserve. Like that waitress that owed over 400k in debt secured by her home. She used some of that money to send her kids to college. That debt will wind up being passed on to others one way or another.

    The lenders made out like bandits and are the reason that house prices went up so high. I hope that they go after them and retrieve some of the funds that have already been pocketed to make up for the losses we’re seeing now.

  331. House Hunter says:

    335 njpatient wife…on propertyshark… they limit your time during busy hours as well. I could only use it after 5pm the other day

  332. jack says:

    i was poolside today in northern bergen county. high end town.. they were convinced
    i was wrong on bc taking a hit on pricing.

    said it would actually keep the low class out
    also pointed out that the schools were the best and worth the price whatever we are paying them

  333. Nom Deplume says:

    [17]

    Grim,

    I saw a house in Brigadoon with an Olympic size master bed, and master bath to match. They were ginormous. Absolutely cavernous. So much wasted space, I thought.

    Then I checked out the rest of the floor. Two of the other four bedrooms on that floor had NO CLOSETS because the seller (who was also the builder) had no intention of using those rooms for bedrooms.

    Saw a lot of unfinished stuff as well, and the builder had been living there for over a year. Needless to say, no offer was forthcoming.

  334. Tom says:

    jack,

    prices already are falling in bergen county. Even foreclosures are going for less than the judgment amount. In the past, the bank’s rep would bid up to fair market value, not just the judgment amount from what I’ve heard.

    I remember seeing a home 2 years ago in a million plus neighborhood having a hard time selling. I’m not sure if it ever sold.

  335. Nom Deplume says:

    [33] Kettle,

    BNI is the best performer I have. By itself, it is nearly offsetting all my beleagured financials.

  336. Nom Deplume says:

    [309] Kettle,

    That dodge doesn’t work. IRS disallows the deductions.

    Don’t think I haven’t thought about it. Why do you think my PA land idea requires a minimum number of unrelated investors???

  337. Nom Deplume says:

    [334] NJP

    Sorry Patient, just got back from Mass. where I made my first court appearance in 10 years.

  338. Tom says:

    Nom, was the builder really REALLY old? Like 200? I remember hearing about closet taxes during tours of some historic homes.

    When you build a home like that that doesn’t have market appeal, you plan to live in it a long time. I guess the market hit him hard.

    By the way, I must have missed it, what is Brigadoon code for?

  339. Nom Deplume says:

    [302] Patient,

    Twain is possible, but I think it may have been Damon Runyon.

    Or maybe Revson.

  340. Nom Deplume says:

    [344] Tom,

    Wife was in the house and she was probably in her 40s or 50s (Eastern European accent). She told me that they planned it that way, but it was idiotic because the other rooms now had insufficient space for a decent closet, and the master had waaayyy too much space. You could hold huge parties in that master suite.

    Brigadoon is Westfield.

  341. Tom says:

    “Wife was in the house and she was probably in her 40s or 50s (Eastern European accent).”

    Ah… to quote Imus. “well there you go” :)

    Seriously though. Makes no sense. Either they built a very bad house they were hoping to sell, or they built a house the way they wanted because they were planning on living there a long time and didn’t care about resale value.

    What were they planning on using the rooms for? Even if they were just for a project/hobby room, closets are nice to have.

  342. njpatient says:

    336 Tom

    “Those that bought a home or cashed out up to 10 times their annual salary though I think got what they deserve. Like that waitress that owed over 400k in debt secured by her home. She used some of that money to send her kids to college. That debt will wind up being passed on to others one way or another. ”

    Now this gets to the nut of my point. The bank entered into a contract with that woman. The bank is financially more sophisticated than that woman (supposedly). The contract, in conjunction with NJ law, would allow her to hand over the house and walk away from the loan with nothing more than a blackened FICO.

    If the bank wanted greater protection, it should have bargained for it. She does not owe some BS moral/ethical duty to the bank to pay off that loan when the law says she has no such duty.

  343. njpatient says:

    337 house hunter

    to be clear, verypatientwife is not Mrs. Patient.
    Mrs. Patient only posts once in a very great while, although she discovered this blog well before I did.

  344. njpatient says:

    338 jack

    “said it would actually keep the low class out”

    Sounds like it’s keeping them in.

  345. chicagofinance says:

    Nom Deplume Says:
    June 24th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
    [334] NJP
    Sorry Patient, just got back from Mass. where I made my first court appearance in 10 years.

    ND: I hope it had nothing to do with paternity of any of those teenagers at the same school.

  346. Nom Deplume says:

    [347] Tom,

    couldn’t tell ya.

    [349] patient,

    I wondered about that.

  347. njpatient says:

    345 nom

    A bit of googling seems to point to Mencken, though there is a rogue attribution to PT Barnum here and there (which must be a conflation with “a sucker born every minute”).

  348. Nom Deplume says:

    [351] ChiFi,

    LMAO. No, I was near R.I., not Gloucester. Though one of my first MA clients was there.

    I have been following that case and the mayor’s recent explanation is horsesh!t. There is another shoe gonna drop on Cape Ann.

  349. Nom Deplume says:

    353, NJP

    Mencken sounds right — my favorite from him was “there’s only one way a newsman should look at a politician, and that’s down.”

  350. Tom says:

    njpatient,

    People actually think the homeowners should make some sort of restitution to the bank because house prices have dropped?

    That makes no sense.

  351. njpatient says:

    356 tom

    apparently they do.
    loony.

  352. Tom says:

    njpatient,

    only people I can think that would feel that way would be bankers or people that work for banks and are worried about getting laid off.

  353. skep-tic says:

    #348

    “If the bank wanted greater protection, it should have bargained for it. She does not owe some BS moral/ethical duty to the bank to pay off that loan when the law says she has no such duty.”

    Yes, yes, yes. No one in this mess has anyone to blame but themselves.

  354. bairen says:

    I liked the story about the waitress who heloc to 10 x income. She figured out how to get college scholarships for her kids. A waitress outsmarted the Wall St crew.

  355. bairen says:

    #356 the banks were the dopes who gave the loans out. Their failure to accurately price risk contributed to this bubble and will lead to millions of people losing their jobs, not to mention contributing to the inflation in food and energy. Oh that’s right CPI doesn’t count food and energy.

    My mistake.

  356. bairen says:

    Speaking of lost jobs. Looks like Shaw is losing his gig as a deputy.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-shaq-kobe-rap&prov=ap&type=lgns

  357. bairen says:

    Speaking of lost jobs. Looks like Shaq is losing his gig as a deputy.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-shaq-kobe-rap&prov=ap&type=lgns

  358. grim says:

    New thread!

  359. Pat says:

    Fiddy..is that happening to you at home, or only at work?

  360. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Pat-

    Thanks for getting back to me.

    I only use it on the home computer.

  361. DL says:

    Re 246 and no closets in the bedrooms. If the owners were Europeans, they actually might have planned the bedrooms without closets. In European houses/apartments the bedrooms come without closets because the euros use free standing furniture designed as closets to hang their clothes. (In Germany they’re called “shranks; in France armoires.”)

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