British lenders approved only 42,000 mortgages in May, falling from a paltry 58,000 in April, the Bank of England reported Monday.
The figure was the lowest since the statistical series began in 1999.
The data were “yet another sign that the U.K. housing market is in free fall,” wrote Michael Saunders, chief U.K. economist at Citi. “With consumer confidence plunging, a major period of consumer retrenchment is likely.”
Actually, what I meant to say; There should be a sabbatical regarding Obama/McCain talk on this blog, for the next 5 months. If one is compelled to discuss, take it off line. Maybe JB can get creative, come up with something similar to an off balance sheet siv., link it to some other crap.
Cindy McCain’s taxes, Obama’s birth certificate?? I’d rather read Bi’s investment strategy. At least you know you’ll make $, if you take the other side of the trade.
Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks to complete the collapse of the US financial markets. That explains the bank insurers interventions of the series Thursday at dealing with 8 Billion Euors. “We are ready at the last minute. It goes in the United States much worse than thought”, said Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens, who maintains that CEO Votron to live. Fortis expects bankruptcies among 6000 US banks that now lack coverage. “But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown in the United States”
I have it on the way - from the review “To restore credibility Morris says “American officials and financial leaders must forthrightly admit the scale of the problem and proceed to purge the absurd valuations, the phony triple-A ratings, the inflated balance sheets, and the hidden liabilities that are marbled through financial balance sheets.”
Credibility and financial balance sheets - now there are two words I haven’t seen in the same sentence in quite some time.
Now that you spelled it out for them (well, and me) maybe they’ll take heed.
What scares me is bi predicted the stock market would bounce back either Friday or today. If he’s off by +$100 on oil… maybe today IS a good day to draw the blinds and play hookey.
It’s been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 3.4 percent since March and investors in Treasuries lost 2.88 percent, the steepest combined plunge in 14 years, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bloomberg. Equity and debt markets fell in tandem for only the sixth time since the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s as oil closed at a record 19 times and concern grew that inflation will cut the value of bond payments.
…
The drop in the Dow to its lowest level since September 2006 is part of a “secular bear market” that may last 10 to 15 years as home prices fall, consumers default and tighter credit slows economic growth, says Ryan Atkinson of Balestra Capital Ltd., which manages $550 million including last year’s fourth-best performing U.S. hedge fund and is wagering equities will fall.
“The vast majority of investors are long-only investors and they would like nothing more than for stocks to always move to the upside,” said Atkinson after the Dow came within 15 points of a 20 percent retreat from its October record. “History shows we have bull markets and we have bear markets, and this is a bear market. That’s what they’re missing.”
Good for you Jim, but I hope your not reading it… get away .. go stop.
Found this interesting since I was just mentioning this to my kids. I was explaining inflation, how last year it was obvious I was spending more for the same groceries and I know this because I do on line shopping, and buy the same items at costco. Well 2-3 weeks ago was when I noticed it’s not a gallon of Ice cream anymore, I can fit more cereal boxes on the same shelf, its no longer a gallon of water. I’m glad food manufacturers had my storing convenience in mind when giving me less food for the money. http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1818761,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
The XLF scare the dickens out of me. A total rout of RE is probably just scratching the surface. Those storm clouds, which we have discussed, over the past couple of years are in perfect alingment. You can cut the tension with a knife.
Taylor Wimpey Plc, reeling from the worst U.K. housing slump in 30 years, will write down 660 million pounds ($1.3 billion) of real estate and plans to raise cash from investors after falling home sales depleted capital.
Went house hunting this weekend. Man the sellers are still nutso. Saw a house for 1.2 million with paint peeling, roof falling apart, pool with a toxic mess that hasn’t been open in year, extentions cords all over place because of broken outlets, non working doors and missing COs all over the place and did I forget non working 1970s appliances in the kitchen and three pink bathrooms. Kids got their 85 year old parents to give up house after four years of trying and they are pricing it based on what a builder would have gave them in 2006 who was going to gut and rebuild. Builder of course no longer wants it and builder did not know about all the CO issues. I give up. Rolling bonds today for another one to two years and will try again in 2010. With closed end single state funds paying 5% and short term munis at 4% who needs real estate.
Want 60% off your mortgage balance? talk to Indy Mac.
“The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.”
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
“The Real Estate Nightmare I Found In Las Vegas
It’s Friday night about 8:00 and I just returned from the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. I want to give you some initial impressions this evening, basically just a skeleton outline and over the weekend and probably into next week I will try and add some flesh to these bones.
As a preamble, I attended an IMN Conference at the end of May 2007. That one was also real estate oriented and approached the subject from the standpoint of pools of capital dedicated to real estate investment. It couldn’t have been a more upbeat conference. There were a lot of fund managers who left you with the impression that they were well on their way to controlling a better part of the real estate assets of the country. So high was the confidence level that the buzz around the meeting rooms was all about getting into foreign markets. Today it seems like that wasn’t a year ago but more like I am living on a different planet.
In no particular order here is a synopsis of this year’s conference:
1. No one has any idea when we will reach a bottom simply because no one knows how many classes of real estate are going down. The most optimistic guess was 2010 but most wouldn’t even hazard a guess. Some of the grey hairs think 5 or 6 years.
2. The problems in the residential side are quickly spilling over to the commercial real estate market.
3. The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.
4. Aside from say multi-family and really solid income producing properties (producing solid verifiable income now, not projected income) there is no debt available. There is lots of equity looking for 20% and up returns. Since these will have to be largely unleveraged, the asset price required to deliver the return is abysmally low. Further driving down implied valuations is the fact that the equity is Wall Street money with 3 to 5 year time horizons. No one thought that was achievable (with the exception of the Wall Street boys in the audience, of course).
5. The complicated capital stacks of the past are history. Simplicity is in and you can kiss non-recourse goodbye.
6. Builder lots are selling for improvement cost or less. Basically, the land is free. There is no debt available and the volume of transactions is approaching zero.
7. Small and mid-level banks are in trouble. So are the big boys but the govies will take care of them? Several of the deal guys said that banks they contacted three months ago about buying assets are all of a sudden calling back. Three months ago they said everything was fine. The idea du jour is to buy the bank to get the bank’s real estate. Sounds screwy to me but I’ll write some more about this one tomorrow.
8. Most think this is a credit driven problem, not a supply problem which was the case in 1991. They think the crunch is really going to start hitting when commercial loans mature and need refinancing. Unlike 1991 there is lots of equity on the sidelines which is a good thing. The bad difference from 1991 is that we got into this mess with a good economy not a recession. So if the economy goes south it could get real rough.
9. Banks have been rewriting their loans and creating new interest reserves to keep the Zombies alive. The regulators have said full stop.
10. The big buzz word is “value added” as in look at my Excel spread sheet and how it shows us increasing rents and occupancy and how much money we will make with which to pay you back. Most of the fund providers aren’t buying.
11. Underwriting is getting tougher and tougher. As one participant said,” …if you have financing take it and close the deal NOW.”
12. Mezzanine is going to be important as the level of available senior debt in the capital stack shrinks. Most Mezz lenders now only going up to 85%. They are also adjusting any appraisals by five to ten percent.
13. Lot prices in the hardest hit areas are back to 2000 to 2001 levels.
14. There is an absolute disconnect on valuations among buyers, sellers, senior debt, mezzanine and equity. Thus no deals are coming together.
15. Appraisals are good for no more than a month as values are deteriorating so rapidly. Some felt that the appraisers were only picking up sales comps and missing the comps that could be derived from note sales. Basically, no one trusts appraisals.
16. The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.
17. The Wall Street Wizards are proving to be particularly inept at working out real estate problems. Essentially, they don’t know anything about operating real estate. On top of that, many of the banks don’t have expertise so there seem to be a lot of bad decisions going down (much more about this later).
18. Things are going downhill so fast that deals that were struck 3 months ago need to be restructured.
19. Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death. Again, I will expand on this in the next couple of days.
We went to this conference, frankly hoping to meet some people and start networking to possibly pick up some assets on the cheap. We did this back in the early 1990’s and it worked out well. We were shocked by what we heard. This is not just a problem with residential real estate. It is a problem with every class of real estate. There are one or two positives that may help lead us out of the situation but, so far, I think that the looming negatives may overwhelm everything.
“The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.”
“Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death.”[Edit: I would also have been s**tting in my pants]
Municipal governments throughout New Jersey are preparing to fight a series of new affordable-housing rules that, they say, will force steep hikes in property taxes, already the highest in the nation.
“I don’t think a lot of towns realize what’s hit them yet,” said David Sandahl, a committeeman in Hopewell Township. He is helping spearhead one of the legal challenges, and more than 100 towns have signed on.
===
Their discontent is focused on a 1-2 punch from state government. In the spring, new rules approved by the New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing greatly increased the amount of low-cost housing that towns are required to build. Then, on Monday, the state Senate approved a sweeping housing bill that, among other things, restricted how much money towns can collect to fulfill those obligations.
Taken in tandem, municipal officials say, the new measures will cost towns $6 billion to $7 billion over the next 10 years, giving them no choice but to boost taxes.
Gov. Jon Corzine is expected today to sign a $32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Now it’s up to the counties and municipalities to figure out how to do with less. Or… they could always raise taxes.
#51 Rich: he just needs to go to a few parties in NJ, to see how the mood regarding real estate (and the rest of the economy for that matter), has utterly changed.
54#, frank, by this bill, raising tax is one the way, see my post #43. it will be transftered to municipalities.
now i have problem with big city mayors: why are you so happy when you have been raped?
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
Yup, it’s a slam dunk, no doubt about it. How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me. The cost of living here is approaching off-the-chart status and the idi*ts continue to follow whatever their neighbors and friends do…. blindly.
BTW, we’ve decided we are not going to try to trade up to another house. That’s it… we’re done. We’ll fix up what we have and call it a day. Still seeing $600,000 and $12,000+ in taxes for “nothing” homes. Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.
“HSBC is believed to have approached potential buyers for its skyscraper head office in London’s Canary Wharf amid fears it might have to repossess the building from the Spanish property group that paid a record £1.1bn for it last year.
Metrovacesa, Spain’s largest property company, is trying to refinance the £810m of short-term debt it took out with HSBC to buy 8 Canada Square, in what was Britain’s biggest single building sale.”
NJ keeps voting for higher taxes, more unions and more government spending, so who cares that you don’t agree with it, in a democracy, majority rules, so suck it up and pay or move to NC.
The RE industry and the sellers are a scream! I see the words, “according to the NAR” and I laugh hysterically. It’s like watching the fat kid slip on the banana peel in the lunch room at school. You laugh so hard the milk comes out of your nose. The whole thing is hilarious! Not the people losing their homes but the sellers asking these prices like they expect to hit the lottery and the realtors trying to convince someone to fall for it. “Buy now are be priced out forever!” It’s a punchline. As long as the sellers and the RE industry continue to do stand up, I’ll continue to laugh.
I only hated the kid until the next game! :) I’ll gladly help you pick the boots out but I’m done. If I really see vultures picking at body parts on the side of the road in a few years, I might reconsider. I’ve already spoken to a carpenter to consider re-doing the baths. I wasn’t going to, but we’re done. We’ve had it.
The taxes alone are absolutely insane. Mine are rising about 7% per year. When we bought in 2001, it was approx. $5700. I just got another notice and they’re now at approx. $8300. That’s for a cape on a 50 X 100 lot.
I was looking at a bank owned home listed on GSMLS. It went on the market a few weeks ago and now over the weekend, the remarks were changed to “No more showings”.
Does this mean that the have received enough offers and/or accepted an offer? Why would it still be listed then?
Gary
I completely understand that. Taxes are crazy everywhere in NJ, some places worse then others. So are you saying even if prices come down the way some hope/expect them too, houses will still be unaffordable beacuse of the taxes?
I see some seller capitulation just starting. I negatiated down a condo for $450K (2400 SFT) in Jersey City. In good times similar ones are going for 700-750K
LOL! Great post. Tell Stu he’s right about the “full of sh*t” part. If I successfully lowball someone, you all would be the first to know. That latest tax increase notice just sealed the lid. For now, I’m just a spectator.
All in hearty agreement.
I’d go back to poser’s original question, however, and note that what s/he was asking was whether there is exposure in a 401(k) of the sort that there is in a DB plan (i.e., I have “earned” a $56K/yr-until-death benefit under my final average pay plan, but it turns out that the plan is grossly underfunded and my employer is bankrupt and I’m going to get precisely bupkus).
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — When Denise Lopez bought two new tables, a floor lamp and a chair recently, her intent was to finance it with her home equity line of credit. But it wasn’t long before she discovered that wasn’t an option — her HELOC had been frozen.
The purchases for her West Palm Beach, Fla., condo were made initially on her American Express credit card, and she then wrote a check against her HELOC to cover them.
“Not only was I declined, but American Express charged me $35 for a check that bounced,” she says. She had a zero balance on the home equity line of credit when the transfer was attempted; she didn’t need to use the line, but said she chose to so she could keep the HELOC active.
Rich #48: In my town, they’re getting ready to spend a cool million on artificial turf for the sports fields, and a hundred and fifty grand to move the police dispatching to Paramus. It’s one-party rule, no opposition, no attention paid, no one cares. Except when they congregate in the middle of the street to bitch about property taxes.
Gary (84) - We feel your pain. We just got our tax court settlement judgement from Trenton and are now owed about 2 years worth of tax overpayments. We are not getting our 2008 money credited yet, because Montclair does not have an official 2008 tax rate yet. The only thing we do know is that our taxes will be going up AT LEAST 7.5%. Ouch!
Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.
Funny, I have been reading that consumers have been having trouble paying off their credit cards as they no longer can tap home equity. Only in America can you pay off a loan with another loan.
I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
The houses I looked at this weekend some were rented by buyers who are renting while waiting for a bottom but they were rented from sellers who did not want to sell and are waiting for the market to come back. Both are holding tough. Weird Economics.
#81
lostinny
Yes, the seller is begging me to buy it for 450K. I am sitting on it to see if I should buy at that price. I have $800 per month maintanance(includes utilities) and the taxes come out to be $600 (1.5% of purchace price). All togather your expensies would be $32,000 (tax deductble mortgage and prop tax) and $10,000 non-tax deductble expenses. So if you live in the condo your cost of owning would be about $2500. But if you rent it you may get about $2600-3000 per month. But still it doesn’t cover your expenses as you can’t deduct the mortgage and taxes.
I heard on CNBC of talk of Dollar intervention. Well, Asia is already pegged and they have been buying our dollars for year and importing inflation through us.
ECB is asking it’s citizens to endure short term pain to fight inflation so it’s obvious that they will not help us.
Since we can’t count on any help from our friends, the only option would be for the Treasury to intervene unilaterally. However, the U.S. government should think twice about bringing a knife to a gunfight. The Treasury only has about $75 billion in foreign currency reserves with which to intervene. The war chest is just a spit in the ocean. To put this number in perspective, Poland has $77 billion, Turkey has $78 billion, and Libya has $79 billion. On the other end of the spectrum, China has $1.7 trillion (not counting Honk Kong’s 150 billion) Japan has $1 trillion, Russia has $550 billion, India and Taiwan each have about $300 billion. Singapore, a nation with fewer than 5 million people, has $175 billion. In fact, the United States holds just about 1% of the world’s $7.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves, and our total position amounts to just 2.5% of the total daily volume of foreign exchange trading. Talk about Bambi vs. Godzilla! In other words, if the dollar is going to fall, the Treasury is completely powerless to do anything to stop it.
TY for the expired price from yesterday. Had a feeling about that and I’m usually woefully wrong on my feelings, so it’s nice to know my feeling meter still works… :)
TY for the appraisal/assessment answer from yesterday.
Some other questions: How many months are you going back for comps on commercial?
and…
you wrote “the income method”…”as a 50/50 blend”… does this mean the income generated by the current occupant business? What if the building is empty or business not included?
Or did I misunderstand the
income method? <~most likely… I’m doing great this week :)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longer term U.S. Treasury bond yields have bottomed and will steadily rise because of inflation pressures in the aftermath of the ongoing U.S. economic downturn, the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote on Monday. “Intermediate and long-term yields on government bonds have already bottomed and will gradually rise,” during the term of the next president, due to start in January, wrote Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, in his monthly “Investment Outlook” letter for July.
Last thread, NJP: Poser’s 401(k) safety question was adequately covered with responses by the time I jumped in this morning.
I didn’t need to expose PBGC premiums for the little protection they truly offer to pension (DB) plan participants. [Hey, I'm somebody who spent many moons working on post-RTC Meritor pension ...you don't need to convince me that pensions are not the golden ticket.]
But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed. Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
We found a 4/2.5 townhouse to rent for a while. Vulture owned, he bought it REO last month.
So much that we looked at was REO. Unbelievable. There’s at least a 30% wishing gap on all the short sale prices over the REO prices. This is in all the overbuilt towns anywhere near transportation to DC.
Here is a question for the agents, and please put aside your bias on this one.
We looked at a house where we were told the listing was expiring and the seller had decided not to renew and take it off the market until next year. We saw it on the last day of the active listing. We then made a verbal offer, which was countered (rejected). We did not pursue.
The house is now off the market and the selling agent. I did not feel the agents were particularly responsive (ours wanted us to buy her listing), and I am going to approach seller directly.
Question: If we are able to agree on something between ourselves, does the selling agent still have a claim for the commission? One thought is that we made an offer that was rejected so that ends their involvement. The opposing view is that we saw it under their auspices so any agreement relates back to the listing period.
Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are. In the end, we would present any agreement to the agents to handle (with the proviso that they take a lower commission), but knowing what their rights are is important.
If you go back than six months for comps, apply a deflator (perhaps 1- 1.5% a month). An appraiser sure will.
Even in a vacant building, you can project a realistic income statement, then apply the prevailing local capitalization rate to the anticipated net income.
Pat Says:
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
May I ask what area you are moving to?
The wife and I spent a weekend in the DC area several months ago looking around. The wife loved Bethesda but its way more expensive than here so I said forget it. We then drove around NoVa and it was so overbuilt and congested that I said forget that too. On the way out, we drove near Gaithersburg and it seemed nicer but still pricey for what you get.
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank– Don’t you see how this impacts the tri-state area RE? Think about it: how many Wall St jobs are being lost as a result of this disaster? How much tighter is credit now for those people who want to buy even in the middle of this calamity?
They may have a claim to commission, based upon the fact that you saw it during the listing period. No matter that you submitted an offer that didn’t go.
For how long is the agent protected? You’d need to know what the listing stipulates.
I owe bot of you e-mails, baby kettle was under the weather this weekend so i will get those out tonight.
Regarding NJ tax revolt. It wont happen until after the state has to declare bankruptcy. The “sea of wealth” image is to deeply ingrained, and all it takes is what about the children, or what about the criminals etc. and people pay up.
But look at the positive side. BC bob you and gary will get some phenomenal deals once the state is bankrupt and the “sea of wealth” image has been thoroughly dispelled.
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
you go to the wrong parties. everyone I know is psyched that prices are coming down. I think there is generally right now a pretty high awareness that we are exiting a massive RE bubble. It just makes the sellers’ and agents’ denial seem that much more absurd.
“Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are.”
Clotpoll (who is pretty dang unbiased) may know some things I don’t, but I would say that, as a legal matter, the rights of the seller’s agent are whatever the contract between the seller and the agent says (or said) they are (or were), and if the contract doesn’t address the situation, then the agent has no such rights.
If i may be so bold, i am ready to make another prediction. I think that in any measurable term we are at the start of the next “great depression”. I doubt anyone will actually use that term, but if measurable terms suck a money , poverty, GDP, etc, it will be a depression. I think that we have hit the point of no return.
My general basis is that the lower class ( as in income and education) of the USA is currently crumbling. Most reports and sources i have read show that the lower class where on the brink to begin with and now that the economy is contracting while the dollar is devaluing and costs are going up ( everything from food to gas), they ave been pushed over the edge. These are people who will have to choose between paying for heating oil or paying the mortgage. They have no choice in the matter anymore.
The implications of this are wide spread. The lower class supports a significant portion of the US economy and where the lower class goes so does the rest.
While all of the wealthy attractive investment bankers will ride this out just fine, consider that 50% HALF OF THE ENTIRE USA makes less then 55,000/yr. recent polls show that these families making 50K and below are crumbling as they cannot absorb the increase in costs of heating gas and food all at the same time.
The reason this cannot be stopped at this point ( perhaps mitigated but not stopped) is that we do not have the industrial/production base that would allow us to begin to reverse our debtor nation trend, and the inflationary policy of the FED is wiping these people out. Its a catch 22. The current US debt will sink US unless we hop into bed with inflationary policy. but at the same time inflationary policy will kill (economically) half the US population..
This depression is what will be the end of suburbia.High gas prices alone will not do it. But the combination of high food/gas/energy prices combined with limited employment options locally, is the death of suburbia.
#122,
skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices. As long as this continues, things are still goooooooooood in NJ.
We’ll be in a tiny town with a decent commute to Rockville. One of those Americana-type towns with the white porches and flags. So, we’re renting for a year until we can decide if we like it.
We found the town by taking a map and pinpointing schools (they have a really good Website) having elementary school test scores of at least 85% and having a diverse teacher mix of little/some/many years of experience. We eliminated schools that were too high in scores. I don’t need that kind of pressure, let alone Fonziegirl. She already bites her nails.
We drove around one weekend to see if I could stand the traffic around each school. Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
The bonus to the town we selected is that there’s a newer private school nearby where the kids wear uniforms. If the public school doesn’t work out (meaning they make fun of her because her Mom has no clue how to buy school clothes), we can move her.
The selling agent has a deal with the owner not you. You should approach directly, but the owner may have a period of time in his contract. If you are not in a rush you can just wait till the period of exclusivity expires and do you deal. Or since it will be hard for him to collect anyhow let the seller pay him less so he does not have to sue to get the full amount. That way you only screw the realtor a litle, kinda like throwing him a pillow so he doesn’t bang his head on the headboard.
Frank– transactions will never drop to zero. Accepting that, what is your definition of a down market? I would say (and most reasonably people would agree) that transactions being down 30-40% year-over-year (where we are currently) represents a very bearish market. Can you explain why you disagree?
Wow, today is a great opportunity for non-believer, suspicious types like me to test theories.
Pretorius, if you’re out there, respond. You were completely mistaken about Manhattan employment and I’m NOT posting a link. So there. Commercial real estate will drop by a lot over the next year and I’m not giving you a standard comparative or a specific percentage. So there.
Reinvestor, there are a whole lot of real estate terrorists here just waiting for you!!!
Thanks…that blows… adding in the cap rate, I mean.
Pffffffffffftht on that.
I have an idea though….the business that currently occupies/owns the bldg is in the toilet financially due to owner burn-out. And, as luck would have it, it’s the same exact type of business as ours. Same clients, same equipment, same yadayadayada… (And no, it’s not the MLS listing I asked about yesterday…this prop is not listed, never has been, it’s a private deal…) Anyhoo, can I require the appraisal to use *HIS* income statements as the cap rate basis? I mean, maybe it’s just a baaaaaaad location to do well…. ;>~
kettle1,
Stop with the armageddon predictions, we have heard it before and it’s not going to happen. NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.
#141,
Look at CA, AZ, NV and FL markets, prices are down 50-80% from 2005, that’s real decline. When homes are still selling for 7x median income, that’s a as good as it gets.
Why compare RE to hedge against inflation. Why not own Gold if you think inflation will increase. If inflation does go higher, it will be accompanied by higher unemployment. If you can’t rent out your home to cover your mortgage when you lose your job, then you are bankrupt anyways. So all this talk about RE a hedge against inflation is useless.
Pat #139: I was at a conference in Bethesda/Rockville last year (at the Marriott) and two years ago, so I know that main drag pretty well. It’s a nice area from what I could see. Don’t know much about schools or any of that, but the shopping/restaurants were good. Traffic, however, around DC at rush hour is a BEAR.
“skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices”
I agree with that, to an extent. Which is why I believe that, despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
Not in NJ.
We will either borrow and/or raise taxes to fill the gap.
Who’s going to oppose this?
The unions and their legion of public employees?
Those who benefit from the welfare state?
Those who fear a cut in services will harm their already falling property values?
Those who think of high taxes like a badge of honor for the privilege of living amongst a sea of phony wealth?
Those who have become so fed up they no longer care?
Who is left to mount any kind of meaningful opposition?
Pat Says:
Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
You’ll be amazed how quickly it turns to mountains and country the farther west you go. I think that’s the main difference between DC and NY. We drove past Leesburg, VA on Route 15 over to Point of Rocks, MD and then back down on Route 28 in MD to DC. The scenery was breathtaking. I think the problem is most of the jobs are in DC or NoVa so everyone has to kill each other cramming into the same spot for work or live right there. Sugarland Run area in VA was a sea of rooftops as far as the eye could see (So much for Money magazing rating it best place to live)
I don’t think you will miss anything schoolwise moving there from Bucks county.
Mortgage insurers slump again
Defaults stayed high in May, Triad Guaranty cut to junk by Moody’s
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:04 p.m. EDT June 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage insurers slumped again on Monday as an industry report confirmed that defaults remain high in the business.
Shares were also dented after mortgage insurer Triad Guaranty (TGIC
Triad Guaranty Inc MTG) fell 21% to $5.52, while PMI Group (PMI) dropped 16% to $1.97.
Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), an industry group, said on Monday there were 67,967 defaults in May. So-called cures, which measure problems that have been resolved, were 40,687 last month.
MICA reports data from MGIC, PMI, Triad and the mortgage insurance businesses of American International Group.
Data from April showed a big jump in defaults to 73,880, but that was partly because a major lender changed the way it reported delinquencies. The company, which wasn’t identified by MICA, had been under-reporting defaults before April.
MICA said last month that the jump in April defaults was a one-time adjustment. However, the May data, unveiled on Monday, suggests stress in the industry remains as house prices continue to slump.
In May 2007, there were 45,986 defaults. Because of the recent adjustment, May 2008 data is not directly comparable, but the report shows a 48% jump in defaults from a year earlier.
Mortgage insurance helps home buyers who don’t have enough money for a down-payment, which traditionally was 20% of the purchase price. As house prices have slumped rising defaults have sparked a surge in claims that have hit companies like MGIC and PMI hard.
Triad, a smaller rival to MGIC and PMI, was cut to junk status by Moody’s late Friday. The agency said the insurer didn’t have enough capital to support an investment-grade rating.
Triad said earlier in June that it would stop selling new policies and go into ‘run-off.” That means the insurer will keep paying any future claims until all policies have expired, then shut down.
Triad shares fell 5% to 96 cents. AIG shares fell 4.1% to $26.60 during afternoon trading. Genworth climbed nine cents to $18.06 and Old Republic slipped 2.8% to $11.88.
160 million new shares
MGIC said on Friday that shareholders approved an extra 160 million new shares to a maximum of 460 million. That sparked concern that the company may sell more shares to raise new capital.
“MGIC will continue to have significant charges for its mortgage market exposure,” Egan-Jones Ratings, an agency that’s paid by investors rather than issuers, said in a note to clients on Monday.
MGIC has $177 billion of insurance in force and roughly $28 billion is tied to subprime mortgages or home loans that were originated with little or no documentation of buyers’ income, the agency noted.
“A 20% loss on the subprime portion would eliminate book equity,” Egan-Jones warned.
Rival PMI Group won’t be able to raise capital on favorable terms to current shareholders in future, Kevin Cole, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, said in a note to investors on Monday. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
I have an overseas friend getting ready to buy a condo at 75 Wall in NYC. He told me between October when he first inquired and today, prices have increased 7%. I told him I was skeptical after reading that the market in Manhatten was showing signs of weakness and a number of the condo projects were being converted to rentals due to soft sales. My suspicion is an agent is trying to take advantage of a foreigner. Can anyone confirm whether condos downtown are seeing this kind of price appreciation? Would a buyer’s agent help? Thanks for any advice/observations.
Frank– by your standard, we are never in a bear market unless it is equivalent to the worst bear market of all time– is that about right?
We know you are fascinated by what is happening in Nevada and California, but let’s compare apples to apples. The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?
“despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.”
agreed. NYC area was late to the party, but is falling hard right now.
John 175: “great” as is size/caliber not quality…:( My family got shellacked during/after the great depression. My Dad still tells some wild stories about it.
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
They don’t have a CEO, they don’t even have an idea of what to do with their own loan portfolio? This precisely why they asked Goldman to look into their junk and decide for them what to do.
They are our 4th largest bank and yet they don’t how to manage their loans. This is a good one. I bet BI is long on Wachovia.
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
Exactly my point, for someone to buy a home at these outrageous prices in NJ, people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement. Where in CA they are saying economy is not doing too well and unless I get a huge discount I am not buying.
Gold actually isnt a great hedge against inflation. Gold is a good hedge against extremes, whether it be extreme deflation or extreme inflation ( i.e hyper inflation)
skep-tic Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
Inflation is high… the only problem is that salaries are rasing at 3% - whch means in real term people have LESS money… Most people in USA are getting their incomes from salaries…
So housing might be getting as better deal, but untill salaries start feeeling inflanatory pressure it is even more unaffordable!!!
And salaries are not rasing, due to cheap labor in thirld world countries/china/india.
Please pick one, for our edification, so we can have a baseline to work with. Also, please answer skeptic’s question at 173.
Thank you in advance for your time.
Pat Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Pat: I forget my pension accounting from 25 years ago. Are DC plan assets even consolidated? I assume not, as there is one-to-one matching of assets and liabilities, and creditors of a firm cannot attach (not attack) to DC plan assets. Isn’t that the entire purpose of the master trust?
“This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects.”
To someone completely lacking in perception, perhaps it does.
To the rest of us, it sounds like a bunch of wolves laughing and rubbing their paws with glee as the sheep, too exhausted by running to and fro in a state of sheer panic, collapse in terrified and hopeless exhaustion.
frank what you see in NJ CA and everywhere else in consumption addiction. and like any other addiction, the more you do it the better you feel. but ultimately it is a hollow pursuit. You can cheer lead all you like, but until you can refute the basic underlying financials(i.e how can someone reasonably borrow 5-8X their annual income without being a significant default risk,, Banks no longer handing out free money) then your points are noting but the complaints of someone who has a vested interest in prices and consumption staying artificially inflated and is scared to death of what is to come.
The CA market’s price increase was much higher than NJ, hence the faster and steeper depreciation.
But what do you care, you “and your friends are still making money in RE in NJ and NYC”.
Which I find to be odd since you have no concrete information on pricing… where are you making these “deals”? What kind of increases are you making?
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
#173,
“The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?”
Some parts of NJ RE market are in decline, yes, I agree, but when you look at the 10 year trend, prices have doubled, tripled and quadrupled, 6% decline is just a noise.
njpatient Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
214 chi
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
njp: You know what? I forgot that not only are the creditors of the sponsor restricted from attaching (not attacking), but so are the creditors of the participant….right?
Private Equity Firm Orders Immediate Sale via Public Auction
3.8+ Acre Comm./Res. Redevelopment Opportunity
Former Assisted Living Facility
Previously Listed at $749,000 - $25,000 Published Minimum Bid
Details:
60 Berlin Road, Gibbsboro, New Jersey 08026
Located Within Camden County
Property Consists of Two Parcels:
1) 2.93 Acres w/ 6,458 Sq Ft Building (Requires Extensive Repair/Demolition)
Block: 24 Lot 1.01
2) .91 Acres of Vacant Land
Block: 24 Lot 1.03
Prime Redevelopment Opportunity
Potential Uses Include: Multi-Family, Assisted Living, Single Family Building Lots & More
Zoning: R40 & R15
Conceptual Survey for 4 Single Family Homes/Lots
This Property Sells Absolute, Regardless of Price at or Above the Minimum Bid of $25,000.00.
Auction Date & Time: Thursday, August 14, 2008 at 2:00 p.m.
Actually a few years ago a LI company that self managed its 401k in its last few months in business before bankruptcy they raided the 401K accounts to keep business afloat. Business went under anyhow and workers lost jobs and 401K and became creditors to be paid back at pennies on the dollar.
John Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Actually a few years ago a LI company that self managed its 401k in its last few months in business before bankruptcy they raided the 401K accounts to keep business afloat. Business went under anyhow and workers lost jobs and 401K and became creditors to be paid back at pennies on the dollar.
JJ: Honestly, if that were the case, then I doubt really that they were true 401(k) accounts. They may have referred to them as 401(k)s, it may have reported in the paper as if they were 401(k)s, but if the plan was properly structured and managed, then the administrator of the plan (not the sponsor) would be on the hook for allowing the said company in financial trouble from making withdrawals out of those accounts. It is patently illegal. So either it was (1) not really a 401(k), or else the participants can go after the trustee/administrator for allowing the unauthorized cash transfers. I have no facts, so this opinion is pure conjecture and is worth what you are paying for it.
In the Long Island case the owner even illegally sent out statements showing the full balance he actually stole the money. However, he had no assets himself either.
Sounds like this is a situation where you take a look at the guy’s financial statements, then make him any damn offer you want. If there’s a money bleed going on there, then the business is obviously worthless…and your offer can be for the real estate only.
If he’s roasted enough, he might even sell you the building at a discount…
I know the son of the head of finance for that company very well. The owner of the company went behind the back of my friend’s dad and raided those 401K accounts. What an a-hole. I hope the owner rots in prison.
NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. shares fell sharply Monday amid speculation that the nation’s fourth-largest investment bank might be acquired by Britain’s Barclays PLC at a discount price.
The U.K. bank was said to be interested in buying Lehman at a price lower than it is currently worth, traders said. Lehman’s share fell $1.92, or 8.6 percent, to $20.31.
Speaking to that regard, if it is not under your mattress then you should at least be concerned. Any and all funds can be lost, it is just the order of magnitude of the financial shitshow that would be required to do so (FDIC bank accounts included I might add) .
“I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?”
Fix the rate at 0%…it won’t matter. God knows how many of these jokers defaulted by immediately running the neg am over the limit. They can’t pay at ANY rate.
Of course, a nice, fat principal reduction could salve some wounds here…
Rich, at first, I wasn’t sure about the cupcake parallels. Especially with bi’s English as a second language out.
But I’m liking it. Why does talk often turn to food either an hour after lunch or an hour before dinner?
You need to find a way to use:
RingDings
YankeeDoodles
Krimpets
Bye the way, were you at a Drake’s outlet over the weekend. I’m wondering if you maybe have a whole tower of boxes at home and have been thinking about them all afternoon. Just trying to connect the dots for any new readers here.
Rich In NNJ ,
My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80. It still works in NJ but not in CA.
In the decade leading up to World War I, Germany was an industrial powerhouse. Its currency, the mark, was linked to gold and had been stable for decades, while its industrial regions supplied the rest of Europe with coal and steel, among many other things. But as the war’s loser, Germany carried some unique burdens into the 1920s. Under the terms of its surrender, it was required to create a more democratic form of government, and then to pay war reparations to France and the other victors.
It managed the first, forming the Weimar Republic. But making reparations payments proved to be more challenging. It seems that the previous government had financed the war by borrowing, expecting to win a quick victory and then squeeze its victims to pay off its debts. So Germany entered the 1920s with massive wartime loans on its books. Meanwhile, the victors, meeting at the French palace of Versailles, were no more generous than the Germans would have been, demanding extraordinarily high reparations payments. In 1921, Germany paid off about one-third of the total, mostly through in-kind transfers of coal, iron, and wood. But covering the rest would involve either draconian cuts in services or massive tax increases. And rather than impose such burdens on its constituents, the Weimar government refused to pay the balance of its reparations. France and Belgium then occupied the Ruhr, Germany’s industrial heartland, hobbling its economy even further.
Faced with an exaggerated version of government’s perennial dilemma, the Weimar government chose an exaggerated response, turning on the printing presses and letting them run. The supply of marks surged and prices began to rise. Caught unaware, Germans at first reacted by economizing and reducing their consumption. But when they realized that prices were rising not just for some things but for everything, they began spending their marks as fast as possible. Prices doubled in the first five months of 1922 and from there went right off the chart. A loaf of bread that cost 160 marks in 1922 went for 1,500,000 a year later, and under the stress of hyperinflation, German life became a parody of a modern economy. Workers were paid hourly and rushed to spend their paper before it became worthless. Instead of wallets, shoppers took wheelbarrows and suitcases full of bills to the grocery store. Restaurant prices doubled in the time it took to finish a meal.
With economic chaos came social breakdown. In 1922, Foreign Minister Walter Rathenau was assassinated by right-wing militants, and in 1923 the fledgling Nazi Party attempted a coup. Borrowers found themselves suddenly debt-free, while savers saw their nest eggs evaporate. A pension that in 1920 might have promised a comfortable life couldn’t buy its owner breakfast by 1923. And as always, the very rich suffered least because they owned real assets—like gold coins and food-producing estates—that held their value as paper currency became worthless. By the autumn of 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion marks, Germany’s nervous breakdown was complete.
Then, as quickly as it arrived, the storm passed. In September 1923, Germany’s new chancellor, Gustav Stresemann, and the head of its central bank, Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, replaced the old mark with the rentenmark, which was backed with gold on loan from America to help Germany rebuild its economy. Nine zeros were struck from the currency, making one rentenmark equal to one billion old marks. In 1924, France cut Germany’s reparations payments to a manageable level, and a semblance of normality returned.
But the vanished nest eggs were never restored, nor were the values of hard work and decency that had characterized prewar German society. As in France over a century earlier, monetary chaos had created a political climate ripe for a demagogue, an opportunity soon seized by Adolf Hitler.
#135 I agree with you Kettle. It’s been coming for a long time and there is no stopping it now. It won’t be exactly like the thirties, but the pain level will be similar. I really don’t see how the consumer can stay afloat under the weight of rising prices, a contracting economy, disappearing home equity, massive amounts of debt and no way to take on more.
Because inventories remain so high — 10.9 months of supply for new homes — Sonders still believes home prices are likely to fall another 10% to 15% before any talk of a “bottom” can be taken seriously. “Not many metrics we use to judge the health of housing are moving in the right direction,” she says.
frank Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80. It still works in NJ but not in CA.
frank:
(1) maybe you misundrstood….”My other friends are buying distressed RE [OF] 50 cent[]…”
(2) are you implying that most RE agents are promiscuous, and your friend is relatively more modest?
Corzine has another New Gimmick. If you renew your Car Registration on-line, their is a New;
“$2 Convenience Fee”. They ask you to Survey at the end of session. I requested they change it’s name to; “Additional Corzine Overhead Tax”.
You know, it’s possible that bi is so far advanced that he skips steps such that we are left unable to solve the equation. We may be missing the entire picture.
It would take a decade to get the infrastructure in place to get any oil from offshore drilling. There’ a huge backlog for offshore rigs. These neocons fail to mention that. They act like it’s planting a corn field and can be harvested in the summer.
276.Sybarite Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Confused; that’s not new. I also took the survey and complained about that ridiculous fee last time I registered online.
Probably went in last July 07. I renew both cars in June, so I missed it last year.
Just think if the money that it would take to get the offshore oil fields going was invested in things like wind and solar farms, and building mass transit rail systems in our cities, I would think the energy created and the oil saved by fewer cars running would surpass whatever those fields would produce. And would provide jobs for tens of thousands of Americans in manufacturing, servicing and running them.
“The Florida attorney general on Monday filed a civil lawsuit against Countrywide Financial Corp. and its chief executive, Angelo Mozilo, alleging that the company engaged in deceptive and unfair trade practices.”
Kettle 297 Thanks Ket linked into your blog,
will sleep so much better knowing it’s all going to hell in a hand basket. Any good news today folks. Ism #s tomorrow that should be a real gas.
you bet your sweet little ass this money is being funneled to Wall St.
(you gotta love those Bank one/JPM tax shelters..just gave you a big hint blokes)
sounds like you would get a long with a friend of mine. He broke his leg while in Namibia. The local doc shot him up with a pain killer before setting his leg. He later asked what it was because he felt great, no pain….. heroin
My bro says same about Korea. We don’t know how good we have it until we see our healthy kids.
I was at the pool a week ago, and there was this family with five kids and a little baby. They were tan, blonde and preppy- looking, and stuck to themselves at a back table up in the grass. She set up an old-fashioned beverage dispenser, and they didn’t buy anything from the concession stand. The Dad sat and watched.
I was at the edge of the pool with my “lonely only,” when she came over with the flock. I looked at her and said, “Look at YOUR fine, lucky self, hanging with your bee-A-YOU-tiful children! Just look at YOU!”
She looked shocked. I will admit, I am not easy take for some people.
A couple minutes later, she came over crying and told me nobody had ever, ever said that to her in 12 years. Now, that IS a sad commentary.
“My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80.”
I always thought bi was Indian with worse than average English - he seemed to care about the large Indian communities in South Brunswick and West Windsor. Maybe just an Indian groupie.
I’ll need to go back to his posts to check out the inflections.
#96 John - that sounds exactly like my parents. My mom is now forcing my dad to taking a 2 year lease somehwere because he is waiting for a bottom to buy. In the meantime, every townhouse owner who has their unit up for rent is waiting for the great market turn-around.
I truly enjoy the comp buster posts here the most. I wish there was a similar type of listing called the fishing expeditions. These would be listings that are over priced and never lower their OLP for the entire length of the listing. I have been looking for a house in Mountain Lakes for a while and I see houses that were listed in 2006 and did not sell, re-listed at the same or greater asking price.
Are these people delusional or am just missing something?
There must be other towns that have sellers on fishing expeditions as well.
But now what do we do Forest?
Oil Passes $143 this morning. Should be another great day for the market.
Well earned!! Have a great day, hoping wifey is playing hookey too!
Euro Zone Inflation Jumps to Record High 4%
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25452035
When the ECB raises rates, be careful not to be standing under any dollars.
I sense a day of urban pentathlon on the scenic Hackensack…followed by a tasty lunch of bologna sandwiches and malt liquor.
Totally deserved! Enjoy & stay well hydrated! :)
Is JB closing on a RE deal today?
Sell? Sell to whom?
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2008/04/Hooper_securitization_apr_08.gif
NY immune?
“STREET’S GLOOM”
“When you see a company like Goldman Sachs announcing layoffs you know things” have gotten bad, said John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm.”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/06292008/business/streets_gloom_117671.htm
Can Obama/McCain also go on a 5 month sabbatical?
Now that’s an excellent idea.
http://biz.yahoo.com/law/080630/c18a6866be4580375021d281887c4af1.html?.v=1
Software Companies Allege Law Firm Misappropriated Mortgage Database
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aAw8YxQisKYk
Hadrian’s Town Becomes `Slum’ as Subprime Infects North England
#10 BC
Hopefully they can take GW, Cheney, and the rest of the charlatans in DC with them.
NEIGHBORHOODS BEAR THE BRUNT
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901785.html
Pat [13],
Maybe some of the townies should check out this site;
http://timesbusiness.typepad.com/money_weblog/2008/06/fifty-great-thi.html
A new record!!
Gas prices hit all time high.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/30/news/economy/gas/index.htm?cnn=yes
Congrats to all who made this record possible, especially GW, Congress, Greenspin, and Bergabe.
If you’re reading this before Tuesday, you have to take an extra day off in punishment for not resting!
Take care of yourself. Love this blog.
I think I should play hooky, too.
But, I can’t afford to drive anywhere.
Bob (10),
That’s a fantastic idea!
And when it comes to politics maybe bi, jamil and others can do the same?
“I think I should play hooky, too.”
Clot,
Modus operandi? No.
Latest on the Mugabe watch. You gotta admit, he’s persistent and consistent:
http://tinyurl.com/3nmj6j
I wish I could have played hookey today.
Have a great day Grim!
I recall someone using the resilient housing market in Britain as a comparison to ours when they had that bounce in sales and prices. Oh well.
From MarketWatch
British May mortgage approvals at all-time low
British lenders approved only 42,000 mortgages in May, falling from a paltry 58,000 in April, the Bank of England reported Monday.
The figure was the lowest since the statistical series began in 1999.
The data were “yet another sign that the U.K. housing market is in free fall,” wrote Michael Saunders, chief U.K. economist at Citi. “With consumer confidence plunging, a major period of consumer retrenchment is likely.”
Stu and I are playing hookey for the week down in LBI.
Rich [21],
Actually, what I meant to say; There should be a sabbatical regarding Obama/McCain talk on this blog, for the next 5 months. If one is compelled to discuss, take it off line. Maybe JB can get creative, come up with something similar to an off balance sheet siv., link it to some other crap.
Cindy McCain’s taxes, Obama’s birth certificate?? I’d rather read Bi’s investment strategy. At least you know you’ll make $, if you take the other side of the trade.
Fortis expects within the next few days to weeks to complete the collapse of the US financial markets. That explains the bank insurers interventions of the series Thursday at dealing with 8 Billion Euors. “We are ready at the last minute. It goes in the United States much worse than thought”, said Fortis Chairman Maurice Lippens, who maintains that CEO Votron to live. Fortis expects bankruptcies among 6000 US banks that now lack coverage. “But Citigroup, General Motors, there begins a complete meltdown in the United States”
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle+articleid_2348586~title_Stock-Market-Summary–.html
Anyone read “Trillion $ Meltdown - Morris?
I have it on the way - from the review “To restore credibility Morris says “American officials and financial leaders must forthrightly admit the scale of the problem and proceed to purge the absurd valuations, the phony triple-A ratings, the inflated balance sheets, and the hidden liabilities that are marbled through financial balance sheets.”
Credibility and financial balance sheets - now there are two words I haven’t seen in the same sentence in quite some time.
I’ll check back if it’s a good read.
27 BC,
…with apologies to whoever…
I agree!!
sl
Bob (27),
Now that you spelled it out for them (well, and me) maybe they’ll take heed.
What scares me is bi predicted the stock market would bounce back either Friday or today. If he’s off by +$100 on oil… maybe today IS a good day to draw the blinds and play hookey.
From Bloomberg
Stock, Bond Slumps Signal Worse Than ‘94 on Inflation
It’s been 14 years since investors suffered as big a retreat in stocks and bonds and some of the largest money managers say the losses may have more in common with the 1974 bear market before the worst is over.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 3.4 percent since March and investors in Treasuries lost 2.88 percent, the steepest combined plunge in 14 years, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bloomberg. Equity and debt markets fell in tandem for only the sixth time since the savings and loan crisis of the 1990s as oil closed at a record 19 times and concern grew that inflation will cut the value of bond payments.
…
The drop in the Dow to its lowest level since September 2006 is part of a “secular bear market” that may last 10 to 15 years as home prices fall, consumers default and tighter credit slows economic growth, says Ryan Atkinson of Balestra Capital Ltd., which manages $550 million including last year’s fourth-best performing U.S. hedge fund and is wagering equities will fall.
“The vast majority of investors are long-only investors and they would like nothing more than for stocks to always move to the upside,” said Atkinson after the Dow came within 15 points of a 20 percent retreat from its October record. “History shows we have bull markets and we have bear markets, and this is a bear market. That’s what they’re missing.”
Good for you Jim, but I hope your not reading it… get away .. go stop.
Found this interesting since I was just mentioning this to my kids. I was explaining inflation, how last year it was obvious I was spending more for the same groceries and I know this because I do on line shopping, and buy the same items at costco. Well 2-3 weeks ago was when I noticed it’s not a gallon of Ice cream anymore, I can fit more cereal boxes on the same shelf, its no longer a gallon of water. I’m glad food manufacturers had my storing convenience in mind when giving me less food for the money.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1818761,00.html?xid=rss-topstories
KL
Renting [28],
The XLF scare the dickens out of me. A total rout of RE is probably just scratching the surface. Those storm clouds, which we have discussed, over the past couple of years are in perfect alingment. You can cut the tension with a knife.
More on that HOT British housing market…
From Bloomberg
Taylor to Raise Funds in Share Sale to Avoid Default
Taylor Wimpey Plc, reeling from the worst U.K. housing slump in 30 years, will write down 660 million pounds ($1.3 billion) of real estate and plans to raise cash from investors after falling home sales depleted capital.
Went house hunting this weekend. Man the sellers are still nutso. Saw a house for 1.2 million with paint peeling, roof falling apart, pool with a toxic mess that hasn’t been open in year, extentions cords all over place because of broken outlets, non working doors and missing COs all over the place and did I forget non working 1970s appliances in the kitchen and three pink bathrooms. Kids got their 85 year old parents to give up house after four years of trying and they are pricing it based on what a builder would have gave them in 2006 who was going to gut and rebuild. Builder of course no longer wants it and builder did not know about all the CO issues. I give up. Rolling bonds today for another one to two years and will try again in 2010. With closed end single state funds paying 5% and short term munis at 4% who needs real estate.
http://www.mlsli.com/unidetailsredo.CFM?MLNum=2081860&typeprop=1&start=1&rpp=10
here is house I look at. Worse in person
John,
Every time you post a url from that site you get an error message
property listing doesn’t come up
X-U
At the home page, enter 2081860 in the MLS search box in the top right.
Two acres…
Want 60% off your mortgage balance? talk to Indy Mac.
“The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.”
http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=637
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
“The Real Estate Nightmare I Found In Las Vegas
It’s Friday night about 8:00 and I just returned from the IMN Distressed Real Estate Conference in Las Vegas. I want to give you some initial impressions this evening, basically just a skeleton outline and over the weekend and probably into next week I will try and add some flesh to these bones.
As a preamble, I attended an IMN Conference at the end of May 2007. That one was also real estate oriented and approached the subject from the standpoint of pools of capital dedicated to real estate investment. It couldn’t have been a more upbeat conference. There were a lot of fund managers who left you with the impression that they were well on their way to controlling a better part of the real estate assets of the country. So high was the confidence level that the buzz around the meeting rooms was all about getting into foreign markets. Today it seems like that wasn’t a year ago but more like I am living on a different planet.
In no particular order here is a synopsis of this year’s conference:
1. No one has any idea when we will reach a bottom simply because no one knows how many classes of real estate are going down. The most optimistic guess was 2010 but most wouldn’t even hazard a guess. Some of the grey hairs think 5 or 6 years.
2. The problems in the residential side are quickly spilling over to the commercial real estate market.
3. The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.
4. Aside from say multi-family and really solid income producing properties (producing solid verifiable income now, not projected income) there is no debt available. There is lots of equity looking for 20% and up returns. Since these will have to be largely unleveraged, the asset price required to deliver the return is abysmally low. Further driving down implied valuations is the fact that the equity is Wall Street money with 3 to 5 year time horizons. No one thought that was achievable (with the exception of the Wall Street boys in the audience, of course).
5. The complicated capital stacks of the past are history. Simplicity is in and you can kiss non-recourse goodbye.
6. Builder lots are selling for improvement cost or less. Basically, the land is free. There is no debt available and the volume of transactions is approaching zero.
7. Small and mid-level banks are in trouble. So are the big boys but the govies will take care of them? Several of the deal guys said that banks they contacted three months ago about buying assets are all of a sudden calling back. Three months ago they said everything was fine. The idea du jour is to buy the bank to get the bank’s real estate. Sounds screwy to me but I’ll write some more about this one tomorrow.
8. Most think this is a credit driven problem, not a supply problem which was the case in 1991. They think the crunch is really going to start hitting when commercial loans mature and need refinancing. Unlike 1991 there is lots of equity on the sidelines which is a good thing. The bad difference from 1991 is that we got into this mess with a good economy not a recession. So if the economy goes south it could get real rough.
9. Banks have been rewriting their loans and creating new interest reserves to keep the Zombies alive. The regulators have said full stop.
10. The big buzz word is “value added” as in look at my Excel spread sheet and how it shows us increasing rents and occupancy and how much money we will make with which to pay you back. Most of the fund providers aren’t buying.
11. Underwriting is getting tougher and tougher. As one participant said,” …if you have financing take it and close the deal NOW.”
12. Mezzanine is going to be important as the level of available senior debt in the capital stack shrinks. Most Mezz lenders now only going up to 85%. They are also adjusting any appraisals by five to ten percent.
13. Lot prices in the hardest hit areas are back to 2000 to 2001 levels.
14. There is an absolute disconnect on valuations among buyers, sellers, senior debt, mezzanine and equity. Thus no deals are coming together.
15. Appraisals are good for no more than a month as values are deteriorating so rapidly. Some felt that the appraisers were only picking up sales comps and missing the comps that could be derived from note sales. Basically, no one trusts appraisals.
16. The Indy Mac performing loan sale that was reported to have been done at about 60% of asking price has fallen apart. Most of the bids at the 60% level were withdrawn after further due diligence. The actual prices the stuff went for is between 20% and 45%. By the way Indy Mac had current appraisals supporting their asking price.
17. The Wall Street Wizards are proving to be particularly inept at working out real estate problems. Essentially, they don’t know anything about operating real estate. On top of that, many of the banks don’t have expertise so there seem to be a lot of bad decisions going down (much more about this later).
18. Things are going downhill so fast that deals that were struck 3 months ago need to be restructured.
19. Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death. Again, I will expand on this in the next couple of days.
We went to this conference, frankly hoping to meet some people and start networking to possibly pick up some assets on the cheap. We did this back in the early 1990’s and it worked out well. We were shocked by what we heard. This is not just a problem with residential real estate. It is a problem with every class of real estate. There are one or two positives that may help lead us out of the situation but, so far, I think that the looming negatives may overwhelm everything.
It is no time to be buying.”
http://blog.metro-real-estate.com/?p=637
“It is the budget the people of New Jersey demanded.”
http://www.mycentraljersey.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080626/NEWS/806260350
#36 John: A lot of selers still in denial. But a couple more months of what we have been witnessing, should finally open their eyes.
If we see anything we like, we will bid accordingly. All they can say is no.
Meanwhile attened quite a few parties this past weekend. Lots of nervousness about the economy etc.
Absolutely no talk abou real estate, none. What a change from 2005/06.
From # 41. Ouch and Yikes.
“The spread between bid and asked prices is as large as the Grand Canyon. Banks and particularly the community banks can’t afford to take the write-downs the bid price implies.”
“Finally, the conference concluded with a representative from the Fed and one from the Office of Thrift Supervision. They dodged, weaved and evaded the hard issues. My take, reading between the lines, is that they are scared to death.”[Edit: I would also have been s**tting in my pants]
N.J. towns mobilizing against new housing rule, citing tax hikes
Municipal governments throughout New Jersey are preparing to fight a series of new affordable-housing rules that, they say, will force steep hikes in property taxes, already the highest in the nation.
“I don’t think a lot of towns realize what’s hit them yet,” said David Sandahl, a committeeman in Hopewell Township. He is helping spearhead one of the legal challenges, and more than 100 towns have signed on.
===
Their discontent is focused on a 1-2 punch from state government. In the spring, new rules approved by the New Jersey Council on Affordable Housing greatly increased the amount of low-cost housing that towns are required to build. Then, on Monday, the state Senate approved a sweeping housing bill that, among other things, restricted how much money towns can collect to fulfill those obligations.
Taken in tandem, municipal officials say, the new measures will cost towns $6 billion to $7 billion over the next 10 years, giving them no choice but to boost taxes.
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank,
You dolt, I am enjoying it, on the sidelines.
From The Star-Ledger
Corzine is ready to ink $32.9B spending plan
Gov. Jon Corzine is expected today to sign a $32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Now it’s up to the counties and municipalities to figure out how to do with less. Or… they could always raise taxes.
#42 frank: If it makes you feel better frank OK, if you say so.
Yes, NJ is immune to all of this, becasue we are close to NYC, which is getting slammed with Wall St job losses.
Yeah it makes perfect sense, because for so long we have been told we are immune to any real estate down turn becasue of our proximity to NYC.
And meanwhile in NJ, we are not creating any new high paying jobs, but frank says real estate is still hot here.
$32.9 billion state spending plan he calls “truly unprecedented” because it eliminates nearly $600 million from the previous year’s outlays.
Yes, a 1.8% reduction is truly an unprecedented achievement.
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
What?
You posted a blog comment that lays out an opinion of a horrible, national RE market and all you get from it is that NJ is immune right now?
Rich [51],
He has his head in the sand, [being kind], missing all of your comp killers.
#51 Rich: he just needs to go to a few parties in NJ, to see how the mood regarding real estate (and the rest of the economy for that matter), has utterly changed.
“Corzine is ready to ink $32.9B spending plan”
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
Frank #42 - You do realize don’t you that while the conference was IN Las Vegas, it pertains to RE all over the US, including New Jersey?
54#, frank, by this bill, raising tax is one the way, see my post #43. it will be transftered to municipalities.
now i have problem with big city mayors: why are you so happy when you have been raped?
Ooops, Rich beat me to it.
lisoosh [55],
Frank doesn’t realize that “I and my friends” are getting hammered.
Why not just raise taxes? Suckers will pay anyway.
Yup, it’s a slam dunk, no doubt about it. How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me. The cost of living here is approaching off-the-chart status and the idi*ts continue to follow whatever their neighbors and friends do…. blindly.
BTW, we’ve decided we are not going to try to trade up to another house. That’s it… we’re done. We’ll fix up what we have and call it a day. Still seeing $600,000 and $12,000+ in taxes for “nothing” homes. Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.
Gary,
But you’re still going to make commetns on the NJRE market, RIGHT?!
This is kind of funny:
HSBC may repossess own head office
Andrew Leach, Mail on Sunday
29 June 2008, 11:36am
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and-markets/article.html?in_article_id=444068&in_page_id=3
“HSBC is believed to have approached potential buyers for its skyscraper head office in London’s Canary Wharf amid fears it might have to repossess the building from the Spanish property group that paid a record £1.1bn for it last year.
Metrovacesa, Spain’s largest property company, is trying to refinance the £810m of short-term debt it took out with HSBC to buy 8 Canada Square, in what was Britain’s biggest single building sale.”
“Good luck, I’m f*cking finished with it.”
Gary,
Come on, I’m just starting to shop for a new pair of boots. I thought you would help me pick them out?
By the way, didn’t you say the same when Eli was picked off 4 times against the Vikings?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpSFExhRdBA
NJ keeps voting for higher taxes, more unions and more government spending, so who cares that you don’t agree with it, in a democracy, majority rules, so suck it up and pay or move to NC.
Rich,
The RE industry and the sellers are a scream! I see the words, “according to the NAR” and I laugh hysterically. It’s like watching the fat kid slip on the banana peel in the lunch room at school. You laugh so hard the milk comes out of your nose. The whole thing is hilarious! Not the people losing their homes but the sellers asking these prices like they expect to hit the lottery and the realtors trying to convince someone to fall for it. “Buy now are be priced out forever!” It’s a punchline. As long as the sellers and the RE industry continue to do stand up, I’ll continue to laugh.
BC Bob,
I only hated the kid until the next game! :) I’ll gladly help you pick the boots out but I’m done. If I really see vultures picking at body parts on the side of the road in a few years, I might reconsider. I’ve already spoken to a carpenter to consider re-doing the baths. I wasn’t going to, but we’re done. We’ve had it.
Gary
You are throwing the towel in too early.
lost [66],
I have been trying to tell him the same. However, I am beating myself, over the head, with Gary’s 2×4.
lost,
The taxes alone are absolutely insane. Mine are rising about 7% per year. When we bought in 2001, it was approx. $5700. I just got another notice and they’re now at approx. $8300. That’s for a cape on a 50 X 100 lot.
With July 4th signaling the end of the spring season, do realtors actively push their clients to lower prices?
#68 gary,
Come on, that’s only $1.65 per sq ft for your lot. It’s like getting your house tax free!!!
I was looking at a bank owned home listed on GSMLS. It went on the market a few weeks ago and now over the weekend, the remarks were changed to “No more showings”.
Does this mean that the have received enough offers and/or accepted an offer? Why would it still be listed then?
BC
That’s no fun.
Gary
I completely understand that. Taxes are crazy everywhere in NJ, some places worse then others. So are you saying even if prices come down the way some hope/expect them too, houses will still be unaffordable beacuse of the taxes?
frank Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 8:56 am
Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.
frank: Are you Frankie T. of “Delivered Vacant” fame?
#74 Maybe he is franklyn raines?
I am cousin of Joe Mama.
I see some seller capitulation just starting. I negatiated down a condo for $450K (2400 SFT) in Jersey City. In good times similar ones are going for 700-750K
#64 Gary
Remember the true meaning of “Real Estate is Local”. It is local to you, it is what you want from it.
Everyone is looking for different things in real estate. I am a big fan of “Sweat Equity” so take a sledgehammer to those bathrooms.
BTW same condo was selling for 300K in 1998. So do you guys think it is all right to pay 450K? Mine is a full cash offer.
Chi/Bairen,
I think Frank is his last name. First name, Barney.
70 Ven
Were there any updates?
#59 - How there is not an absolute revolution in this state is beyond me.
I completely agree with you on this one. Just how far can people be pushed until they snap back? It’s not just the state either.
Gary - Stu does not believe you. He says you are full of S$*t and will keep looking.
If it makes you feel better, we pay over $12k in taxes for our outdated 2 family place so your cape is actually a ‘deal’.
Have some faith. we are all looking forward to the day you successfully lowball a house listed by the snobbiest realtor in all of North Caldwell.
NJGator,
LOL! Great post. Tell Stu he’s right about the “full of sh*t” part. If I successfully lowball someone, you all would be the first to know. That latest tax increase notice just sealed the lid. For now, I’m just a spectator.
147 Pat (last thread)
All in hearty agreement.
I’d go back to poser’s original question, however, and note that what s/he was asking was whether there is exposure in a 401(k) of the sort that there is in a DB plan (i.e., I have “earned” a $56K/yr-until-death benefit under my final average pay plan, but it turns out that the plan is grossly underfunded and my employer is bankrupt and I’m going to get precisely bupkus).
PGC [78],
You’re right… I want to sleep at night. Why should I consider funding someone’s retirement and pray a disaster doesn’t occur?
52 BC
“He has his head in the sand”
and he’s sitting on the sand.
Freeze tag
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — When Denise Lopez bought two new tables, a floor lamp and a chair recently, her intent was to finance it with her home equity line of credit. But it wasn’t long before she discovered that wasn’t an option — her HELOC had been frozen.
The purchases for her West Palm Beach, Fla., condo were made initially on her American Express credit card, and she then wrote a check against her HELOC to cover them.
“Not only was I declined, but American Express charged me $35 for a check that bounced,” she says. She had a zero balance on the home equity line of credit when the transfer was attempted; she didn’t need to use the line, but said she chose to so she could keep the HELOC active.
More on the rate cuts;
http://gallery.mac.com/scopix#100055&view=mosaic&sel=75
“and he’s sitting on the sand.’
njp,
I knew that was coming.
Rich #48: In my town, they’re getting ready to spend a cool million on artificial turf for the sports fields, and a hundred and fifty grand to move the police dispatching to Paramus. It’s one-party rule, no opposition, no attention paid, no one cares. Except when they congregate in the middle of the street to bitch about property taxes.
Businessweek Article,
The Housing Abyss
Gary (84) - We feel your pain. We just got our tax court settlement judgement from Trenton and are now owed about 2 years worth of tax overpayments. We are not getting our 2008 money credited yet, because Montclair does not have an official 2008 tax rate yet. The only thing we do know is that our taxes will be going up AT LEAST 7.5%. Ouch!
Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.
#65 gary: As lisoosh says, you really are throwing in the towel too early. Everything is falling into place.
Why not go out and throw bids in on houses you are interested in. All they can do is say no.
I truly believe that within the next 12 months, you will be more than successful. I would hold off on the carpenters.
Funny, I have been reading that consumers have been having trouble paying off their credit cards as they no longer can tap home equity. Only in America can you pay off a loan with another loan.
I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
The houses I looked at this weekend some were rented by buyers who are renting while waiting for a bottom but they were rented from sellers who did not want to sell and are waiting for the market to come back. Both are holding tough. Weird Economics.
Talking about taxes, this is currently the lead story on businessweek.com:
The Next Victim of the Real Estate Crisis
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
More at: http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/jun2008/bw20080627_320852.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_top+story
#81
lostinny
Yes, the seller is begging me to buy it for 450K. I am sitting on it to see if I should buy at that price. I have $800 per month maintanance(includes utilities) and the taxes come out to be $600 (1.5% of purchace price). All togather your expensies would be $32,000 (tax deductble mortgage and prop tax) and $10,000 non-tax deductble expenses. So if you live in the condo your cost of owning would be about $2500. But if you rent it you may get about $2600-3000 per month. But still it doesn’t cover your expenses as you can’t deduct the mortgage and taxes.
#96 I don’t know if in 12 months there will be a bargain.
There will be bargains. Guaranteed.
#93 NJGator
“Just keep the faith. Maybe one day we can buy side by side REOs in Short Hills.”
I have a plan to divorce Mrs PGC to allow her to qualify for a nice COAH house in Short Hills, we could be neighbors.
I heard on CNBC of talk of Dollar intervention. Well, Asia is already pegged and they have been buying our dollars for year and importing inflation through us.
ECB is asking it’s citizens to endure short term pain to fight inflation so it’s obvious that they will not help us.
Since we can’t count on any help from our friends, the only option would be for the Treasury to intervene unilaterally. However, the U.S. government should think twice about bringing a knife to a gunfight. The Treasury only has about $75 billion in foreign currency reserves with which to intervene. The war chest is just a spit in the ocean. To put this number in perspective, Poland has $77 billion, Turkey has $78 billion, and Libya has $79 billion. On the other end of the spectrum, China has $1.7 trillion (not counting Honk Kong’s 150 billion) Japan has $1 trillion, Russia has $550 billion, India and Taiwan each have about $300 billion. Singapore, a nation with fewer than 5 million people, has $175 billion. In fact, the United States holds just about 1% of the world’s $7.6 trillion of foreign currency reserves, and our total position amounts to just 2.5% of the total daily volume of foreign exchange trading. Talk about Bambi vs. Godzilla! In other words, if the dollar is going to fall, the Treasury is completely powerless to do anything to stop it.
100 PGC - I think that’s great. We should all move in en masse. The look on Graydon and Ellery’s parents’ faces would be priceless.
Grim,
Have a great day off…well deserved.
TY for the expired price from yesterday. Had a feeling about that and I’m usually woefully wrong on my feelings, so it’s nice to know my feeling meter still works… :)
Clot,
TY for the appraisal/assessment answer from yesterday.
Some other questions: How many months are you going back for comps on commercial?
and…
you wrote “the income method”…”as a 50/50 blend”… does this mean the income generated by the current occupant business? What if the building is empty or business not included?
Or did I misunderstand the
income method? <~most likely… I’m doing great this week :)
Site posts foreclosure addresses for free
ForeclosurePoint provides data on filings in 35 states
http://www.inman.com/news/2008/06/27/site-posts-foreclosure-addresses-free
1930s-style collapse haunts economy
Commentary: Why near-term rate increases are unlikely
http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/loubarnes/1930s-style-collapse-haunts-economy
Pimco’s Gross says another stimulus jolt needed
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Longer term U.S. Treasury bond yields have bottomed and will steadily rise because of inflation pressures in the aftermath of the ongoing U.S. economic downturn, the manager of the world’s biggest bond fund wrote on Monday. “Intermediate and long-term yields on government bonds have already bottomed and will gradually rise,” during the term of the next president, due to start in January, wrote Bill Gross, chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, in his monthly “Investment Outlook” letter for July.
“Pimco’s Gross says another stimulus jolt needed”
Jolt? More like a 9 on the Richter scale. Come to think of it, why doesn’t the fed just accept all consumer debt at the window? Start anew.
#108 BC Bob,
I like that idea the best. Why should only FBs and overleveraged banks get rewarded? I want to play too!!
#108 (BC),
Hyperinflation will do just that. I belive I’ll pay off all my mortgages selling Euro’s and Gold for pennies on the dollar.
The mistake they’re making is assuming that they can control inflation.
It’s like a wild fire once it starts spreading get out of the way or burn.
Any truth to the rumor that Goldman was selling puts, Euro Stoxx 50, today?
“Buy `Crash Protection’ Puts on European Stocks, Goldman Says”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahmkboBVHNeg&refer=home
“The mistake they’re making is assuming that they can control inflation.”
make,
They have a better chance of controlling Lindsay Lohan at an open bar.
gary (65)-
Repeat after me:
“Real estate markets are slow-moving and illiquid.”
This thing hasn’t even gotten going yet.
Last thread, NJP: Poser’s 401(k) safety question was adequately covered with responses by the time I jumped in this morning.
I didn’t need to expose PBGC premiums for the little protection they truly offer to pension (DB) plan participants. [Hey, I'm somebody who spent many moons working on post-RTC Meritor pension ...you don't need to convince me that pensions are not the golden ticket.]
But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed. Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
BC (80)-
Frank, first name.
Second name, Furter.
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
We found a 4/2.5 townhouse to rent for a while. Vulture owned, he bought it REO last month.
So much that we looked at was REO. Unbelievable. There’s at least a 30% wishing gap on all the short sale prices over the REO prices. This is in all the overbuilt towns anywhere near transportation to DC.
Here is a question for the agents, and please put aside your bias on this one.
We looked at a house where we were told the listing was expiring and the seller had decided not to renew and take it off the market until next year. We saw it on the last day of the active listing. We then made a verbal offer, which was countered (rejected). We did not pursue.
The house is now off the market and the selling agent. I did not feel the agents were particularly responsive (ours wanted us to buy her listing), and I am going to approach seller directly.
Question: If we are able to agree on something between ourselves, does the selling agent still have a claim for the commission? One thought is that we made an offer that was rejected so that ends their involvement. The opposing view is that we saw it under their auspices so any agreement relates back to the listing period.
Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are. In the end, we would present any agreement to the agents to handle (with the proviso that they take a lower commission), but knowing what their rights are is important.
Thanks in advance.
114 pat
“But missing disclosure frameworks on DC plans was not adequately addressed.”
Fair enough - you’ve got the expertise to do it and I don’t.
spam (104)-
If you go back than six months for comps, apply a deflator (perhaps 1- 1.5% a month). An appraiser sure will.
Even in a vacant building, you can project a realistic income statement, then apply the prevailing local capitalization rate to the anticipated net income.
Note my use of the word, “realistic”.
115 clot
I thought the second name was Lymydearidontgiveadamn.
Pat Says:
Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?
May I ask what area you are moving to?
The wife and I spent a weekend in the DC area several months ago looking around. The wife loved Bethesda but its way more expensive than here so I said forget it. We then drove around NoVa and it was so overbuilt and congested that I said forget that too. On the way out, we drove near Gaithersburg and it seemed nicer but still pricey for what you get.
#42
“Until things get this bad, enjoy the RE market, it is still strong in NJ.”
Frank– Don’t you see how this impacts the tri-state area RE? Think about it: how many Wall St jobs are being lost as a result of this disaster? How much tighter is credit now for those people who want to buy even in the middle of this calamity?
shark (117)-
They may have a claim to commission, based upon the fact that you saw it during the listing period. No matter that you submitted an offer that didn’t go.
For how long is the agent protected? You’d need to know what the listing stipulates.
BC, Bairen
I owe bot of you e-mails, baby kettle was under the weather this weekend so i will get those out tonight.
Regarding NJ tax revolt. It wont happen until after the state has to declare bankruptcy. The “sea of wealth” image is to deeply ingrained, and all it takes is what about the children, or what about the criminals etc. and people pay up.
But look at the positive side. BC bob you and gary will get some phenomenal deals once the state is bankrupt and the “sea of wealth” image has been thoroughly dispelled.
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
124# kettle1
sea of wealth is really ocean of debt.
Too bad 99% of the population doesn’t know that yet.
Pat
“Can I still post on this blog after we move to Maryland?”
I think anyone who is or has been a regular here has a right, nay, an OBLIGATION, to continue posting until this RE Bubble has run its course.
Speaking of which - where’s pretorius?
126 bairen
Right.
Every time I hear the phrase “sea of wealth,” I wonder why everyone threw their wealth into the sea.
Not sure if this has been linked up yet, but …
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/08/bear_stearns200808?printable=true¤tPage=all
great piece on the fall of Bear Sterns
hey kettle - when you get a moment can you please throw up a link to your blog?
Thanks.
128# njp
Because they are wet behind the ears?
Up the creek without a paddle?
Seafood lovers?
#127 njpatient: I think the RE bubble has run its course. It is the clean up mode that we are in now.
The mood at parties I attended this past weekend was grim, to say the least.
#132
you go to the wrong parties. everyone I know is psyched that prices are coming down. I think there is generally right now a pretty high awareness that we are exiting a massive RE bubble. It just makes the sellers’ and agents’ denial seem that much more absurd.
shark
“Putting aside claims of fairness, I want to know what their rights are.”
Clotpoll (who is pretty dang unbiased) may know some things I don’t, but I would say that, as a legal matter, the rights of the seller’s agent are whatever the contract between the seller and the agent says (or said) they are (or were), and if the contract doesn’t address the situation, then the agent has no such rights.
If i may be so bold, i am ready to make another prediction. I think that in any measurable term we are at the start of the next “great depression”. I doubt anyone will actually use that term, but if measurable terms suck a money , poverty, GDP, etc, it will be a depression. I think that we have hit the point of no return.
My general basis is that the lower class ( as in income and education) of the USA is currently crumbling. Most reports and sources i have read show that the lower class where on the brink to begin with and now that the economy is contracting while the dollar is devaluing and costs are going up ( everything from food to gas), they ave been pushed over the edge. These are people who will have to choose between paying for heating oil or paying the mortgage. They have no choice in the matter anymore.
The implications of this are wide spread. The lower class supports a significant portion of the US economy and where the lower class goes so does the rest.
While all of the wealthy attractive investment bankers will ride this out just fine, consider that 50% HALF OF THE ENTIRE USA makes less then 55,000/yr. recent polls show that these families making 50K and below are crumbling as they cannot absorb the increase in costs of heating gas and food all at the same time.
The reason this cannot be stopped at this point ( perhaps mitigated but not stopped) is that we do not have the industrial/production base that would allow us to begin to reverse our debtor nation trend, and the inflationary policy of the FED is wiping these people out. Its a catch 22. The current US debt will sink US unless we hop into bed with inflationary policy. but at the same time inflationary policy will kill (economically) half the US population..
This depression is what will be the end of suburbia.High gas prices alone will not do it. But the combination of high food/gas/energy prices combined with limited employment options locally, is the death of suburbia.
Cheers!
#122,
skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices. As long as this continues, things are still goooooooooood in NJ.
Unacceptable.
Couldn’t you take a blog sabbatical on July 4th?
-R
MBIA will record a pretax loss of $300 million on the sale of securities, the company said today
didn’t they say this weekend it was at a profit?
x-underwear, we’re moving to Montgomery County.
We’ll be in a tiny town with a decent commute to Rockville. One of those Americana-type towns with the white porches and flags. So, we’re renting for a year until we can decide if we like it.
We found the town by taking a map and pinpointing schools (they have a really good Website) having elementary school test scores of at least 85% and having a diverse teacher mix of little/some/many years of experience. We eliminated schools that were too high in scores. I don’t need that kind of pressure, let alone Fonziegirl. She already bites her nails.
We drove around one weekend to see if I could stand the traffic around each school. Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
The bonus to the town we selected is that there’s a newer private school nearby where the kids wear uniforms. If the public school doesn’t work out (meaning they make fun of her because her Mom has no clue how to buy school clothes), we can move her.
The selling agent has a deal with the owner not you. You should approach directly, but the owner may have a period of time in his contract. If you are not in a rush you can just wait till the period of exclusivity expires and do you deal. Or since it will be hard for him to collect anyhow let the seller pay him less so he does not have to sue to get the full amount. That way you only screw the realtor a litle, kinda like throwing him a pillow so he doesn’t bang his head on the headboard.
#136
Frank– transactions will never drop to zero. Accepting that, what is your definition of a down market? I would say (and most reasonably people would agree) that transactions being down 30-40% year-over-year (where we are currently) represents a very bearish market. Can you explain why you disagree?
“…where’s pretorius?”
Wow, today is a great opportunity for non-believer, suspicious types like me to test theories.
Pretorius, if you’re out there, respond. You were completely mistaken about Manhattan employment and I’m NOT posting a link. So there. Commercial real estate will drop by a lot over the next year and I’m not giving you a standard comparative or a specific percentage. So there.
Reinvestor, there are a whole lot of real estate terrorists here just waiting for you!!!
….O.K. let’s see if anybody responds today.
119 : clot
Thanks…that blows… adding in the cap rate, I mean.
Pffffffffffftht on that.
I have an idea though….the business that currently occupies/owns the bldg is in the toilet financially due to owner burn-out. And, as luck would have it, it’s the same exact type of business as ours. Same clients, same equipment, same yadayadayada… (And no, it’s not the MLS listing I asked about yesterday…this prop is not listed, never has been, it’s a private deal…) Anyhoo, can I require the appraisal to use *HIS* income statements as the cap rate basis? I mean, maybe it’s just a baaaaaaad location to do well…. ;>~
kettle1,
Stop with the armageddon predictions, we have heard it before and it’s not going to happen. NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.
Bogota Comp Killer!
182 CYPRESS AVE
Sold: $360,000 12/20/2004
MLS#: 2824104
OLP: $399,900 6/13/2008
Sold: $290,000 6/27/2008
#141,
Look at CA, AZ, NV and FL markets, prices are down 50-80% from 2005, that’s real decline. When homes are still selling for 7x median income, that’s a as good as it gets.
#125
Why compare RE to hedge against inflation. Why not own Gold if you think inflation will increase. If inflation does go higher, it will be accompanied by higher unemployment. If you can’t rent out your home to cover your mortgage when you lose your job, then you are bankrupt anyways. So all this talk about RE a hedge against inflation is useless.
What’s going on with Lehman today?
Pat #139: I was at a conference in Bethesda/Rockville last year (at the Marriott) and two years ago, so I know that main drag pretty well. It’s a nice area from what I could see. Don’t know much about schools or any of that, but the shopping/restaurants were good. Traffic, however, around DC at rush hour is a BEAR.
Fair Lawn Comp Killer!
95 BLUE HILL AVE
Sold: $425,000 9/15/2005
MLS#: 2811101
OLP: $418,500 3/19/2008
Sold: $401,000 6/27/2008
NJP
http://www.maldream.blogspot.com
136 frank
“skep-tic, homes are still selling at rip-off prices in NJ, look at the comp-killers from yesterday. Except the home in Newark, most of them sold at fleece-me prices”
I agree with that, to an extent. Which is why I believe that, despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.
142 Pat
Hee!!!!!
Once again I find myself in broad agreement with Apocalypse Boy.
144 frank
“NJ version of “great depression” will be when people start driving smaller cars.”
SUV sales are down 38% in the past year. Next?
“SUV sales are down 38% in the past year.”
I said, driving not buying, next?
Bergenfield FUTURE Comp Killer!
52 N GLENWOOD DR
Sold: $362,000 11/30/2005
MLS#: 2800209
OLP: $375,000 8/8/2006
LLP: $314,900 6/30/2008
As the economy stalls, state and local governments will see less tax revenue roll in. Get ready for cuts in services
Not in NJ.
We will either borrow and/or raise taxes to fill the gap.
Who’s going to oppose this?
The unions and their legion of public employees?
Those who benefit from the welfare state?
Those who fear a cut in services will harm their already falling property values?
Those who think of high taxes like a badge of honor for the privilege of living amongst a sea of phony wealth?
Those who have become so fed up they no longer care?
Who is left to mount any kind of meaningful opposition?
Bogota FUTURE Comp Killer!
380 LEONIA AVE
Sold: $545,000 6/16/2006
Current MLS#: 2810527
OLP: $575,000 8/17/2007
LLP: $419,000 6/29/2008
#133 skeptic: The parties that we attend are all attended by other homeowners. We were the freaks that sold.
We are not the freaks any more.
Pat Says:
Germantown, Rockville, Gaithersburg were all eliminated based on the traffic.
You’ll be amazed how quickly it turns to mountains and country the farther west you go. I think that’s the main difference between DC and NY. We drove past Leesburg, VA on Route 15 over to Point of Rocks, MD and then back down on Route 28 in MD to DC. The scenery was breathtaking. I think the problem is most of the jobs are in DC or NoVa so everyone has to kill each other cramming into the same spot for work or live right there. Sugarland Run area in VA was a sea of rooftops as far as the eye could see (So much for Money magazing rating it best place to live)
I don’t think you will miss anything schoolwise moving there from Bucks county.
Englewood FUTURE Comp Killer!
256 LIBERTY RD
Sold: $400,000 11/16/2005
MLS#: 2824309
OLP: $369,000 6/16/2008
LLP: $309,000 6/30/2008
#136 frank: How about all the houses that are NOT selling, that is more indicative, than a few selling here and there, which is just noise.
You cannot have it both ways kid.
Hot off the press at Marketwatch.com:
Mortgage insurers slump again
Defaults stayed high in May, Triad Guaranty cut to junk by Moody’s
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
Last update: 2:04 p.m. EDT June 30, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Mortgage insurers slumped again on Monday as an industry report confirmed that defaults remain high in the business.
Shares were also dented after mortgage insurer Triad Guaranty (TGIC
Triad Guaranty Inc MTG) fell 21% to $5.52, while PMI Group (PMI) dropped 16% to $1.97.
Mortgage Insurance Companies of America (MICA), an industry group, said on Monday there were 67,967 defaults in May. So-called cures, which measure problems that have been resolved, were 40,687 last month.
MICA reports data from MGIC, PMI, Triad and the mortgage insurance businesses of American International Group.
Data from April showed a big jump in defaults to 73,880, but that was partly because a major lender changed the way it reported delinquencies. The company, which wasn’t identified by MICA, had been under-reporting defaults before April.
MICA said last month that the jump in April defaults was a one-time adjustment. However, the May data, unveiled on Monday, suggests stress in the industry remains as house prices continue to slump.
In May 2007, there were 45,986 defaults. Because of the recent adjustment, May 2008 data is not directly comparable, but the report shows a 48% jump in defaults from a year earlier.
Mortgage insurance helps home buyers who don’t have enough money for a down-payment, which traditionally was 20% of the purchase price. As house prices have slumped rising defaults have sparked a surge in claims that have hit companies like MGIC and PMI hard.
Triad, a smaller rival to MGIC and PMI, was cut to junk status by Moody’s late Friday. The agency said the insurer didn’t have enough capital to support an investment-grade rating.
Triad said earlier in June that it would stop selling new policies and go into ‘run-off.” That means the insurer will keep paying any future claims until all policies have expired, then shut down.
Triad shares fell 5% to 96 cents. AIG shares fell 4.1% to $26.60 during afternoon trading. Genworth climbed nine cents to $18.06 and Old Republic slipped 2.8% to $11.88.
160 million new shares
MGIC said on Friday that shareholders approved an extra 160 million new shares to a maximum of 460 million. That sparked concern that the company may sell more shares to raise new capital.
“MGIC will continue to have significant charges for its mortgage market exposure,” Egan-Jones Ratings, an agency that’s paid by investors rather than issuers, said in a note to clients on Monday.
MGIC has $177 billion of insurance in force and roughly $28 billion is tied to subprime mortgages or home loans that were originated with little or no documentation of buyers’ income, the agency noted.
“A 20% loss on the subprime portion would eliminate book equity,” Egan-Jones warned.
Rival PMI Group won’t be able to raise capital on favorable terms to current shareholders in future, Kevin Cole, an analyst at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, said in a note to investors on Monday. End of Story
Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aAw8YxQisKYk&refer=home
this will be NJ in three years
#144 frankie boy: It is already happening. You need to get more.
Now how can this be, it’s only been 2 1/2 months in this “hot” NJ market
Glen Rock FUTURE Comp Killer!
116 THORNBURY AVE
Sold: $675,000 4/23/2008
MLS#: 2821317
OLP: $699,000 5/25/2008
LLP: $669,000 6/30/2008
#145 Rich:Sold: $290,000 6/27/2008
2002/03 pricing?
todays market indicates oil peaked? i see it at these in short term (6 months).
#159 Rich: Who would have ever paid 545k in Bogota?
“todays market indicates oil peaked? i see it at these in short term (6 months)”
Anybody, interpretation?
I have an overseas friend getting ready to buy a condo at 75 Wall in NYC. He told me between October when he first inquired and today, prices have increased 7%. I told him I was skeptical after reading that the market in Manhatten was showing signs of weakness and a number of the condo projects were being converted to rentals due to soft sales. My suspicion is an agent is trying to take advantage of a foreigner. Can anyone confirm whether condos downtown are seeing this kind of price appreciation? Would a buyer’s agent help? Thanks for any advice/observations.
#146
Frank– by your standard, we are never in a bear market unless it is equivalent to the worst bear market of all time– is that about right?
We know you are fascinated by what is happening in Nevada and California, but let’s compare apples to apples. The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?
ABK ($1.23 -23%) just because of russell rebalance? down from $88 of 52 week high.
“great depression” is such an oxymoron, what was so great about it anyhow?
#115 clot: does that make him a “hotdog?”
and… I thought his surname was “Enstein!”
lisoosh: finally catching up with a gazillion posts, Hope to get to say “hi” to you at a GTG too! (sorry for the lateness)
I think anyone who buys a house should be required to host a blog GTG :-) Of course in a BYOB and covered dish format though.
sl
#152
“despite the fact that NJ prices have already fallen arount 10% from peak, there will be an even more breathtaking plummet through the course of this year.”
agreed. NYC area was late to the party, but is falling hard right now.
John 175: “great” as is size/caliber not quality…:( My family got shellacked during/after the great depression. My Dad still tells some wild stories about it.
sl
re: above
is=in
sl
#173,
We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE, rest of the country is another story.
frank,
i called oil at $150+ this year and approach $200.
then again a broken clock is right twice a day!
john 175
my history may be a little fuzzy, but didnt the rockafellers and a few other do pretty well when it was all said and done
My vote for the next gtg is a bus tour.
[176] Still,
Was thinking just that. And if I do buy, I may host the fall GTG.
That way, Patient can come over and drink all my scotch.
Barien has to stay away from my wife and daughter though, after all that polygamist talk.
Wachovia stopped originating Option ARMs - TODAY
It took them that long to figure it out. WOW.
“It took them that long to figure it out. WOW.”
[185],
Not surprising. Look at how it’s taking you to get a sniff.
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
#185
I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?
They don’t have a CEO, they don’t even have an idea of what to do with their own loan portfolio? This precisely why they asked Goldman to look into their junk and decide for them what to do.
They are our 4th largest bank and yet they don’t how to manage their loans. This is a good one. I bet BI is long on Wachovia.
…and there goes Charlotte’s market defying appreciating real estate.
frank
““SUV sales are down 38% in the past year.”
I said, driving not buying, next?”
You’re kidding right?
You come across like a child.
188 make
“I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. ”
Selling them to folks like frank who think everything is fine.
shark
“That way, Patient can come over and drink all my scotch.”
wheeeeeee!
Check out this data for Manhattan market:
http://www.urbandigs.com/charts3.html
click on the 6 month chart. Looks like there was a 1 month selling season in April.
1 month charge in contracts signed is down 89.94%.
180 frank
“We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE”
But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.
Sounds like you could lose money.
I take it you’re buying in NJ right now, though, or do you only expect other people to follow your advice??
while its financial news is still readable, i feel bloomberg political news become pro-libral recently. anybody feels the same?
“You come across like a child.”
njp,
Please don’t insult our children.
173 skep
I’m guessing frank won’t give you an answer to that question.
There’s only one answer, and it’s decidedly inconvenient.
BC Bob
Good point. I’m rightfully corrected.
195 bi
“anybody feels the same?”
No.
This has been another edition of Easy Answers To Easy Questions.
“i feel bloomberg political news become pro-libral recently.”
bi,
You missed the memo. That talk is now diverted off the NJRER balance sheet. Please take it to the appropriate site.
while its yodels are still palatable, i feel drakes’ cakes become dry recently. anybody feels the same?
171 BC Bob
“Anybody, interpretation?”
Not on your life. It’s as if someone brought Casey Stengel back to life.
199, 200 & 201,
Different response, same meaning. Excellent.
201 Rich
“anybody feels the same?”
Ever since it stopped to being including the baseball cardds within it’s packagifying, I have stooped buying them.
Currently on CNN/Money: “Energy’s easiest fix: Use less”
Does this mean I can go back to bed??
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
njp,
If Frank was a pitcher he would be 15-15. An era of 1.09 when he won and 9.72 when he lost. If he was a trader, he would only trade straddles.
“But…up thread you just finished saying that NJRE is incredibly overpriced.”
Exactly my point, for someone to buy a home at these outrageous prices in NJ, people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement. Where in CA they are saying economy is not doing too well and unless I get a huge discount I am not buying.
#190 njpatient:You come across like a child.
Or dare I say an ididot.
Zack 147,
Gold actually isnt a great hedge against inflation. Gold is a good hedge against extremes, whether it be extreme deflation or extreme inflation ( i.e hyper inflation)
skep-tic Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 1:20 pm
Let me suggest that RE may be a great buy if inflation stays high. In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period. If we see 15-20% declines in the next couple of years on top of that, RE seems like it would be a very good deal
Inflation is high… the only problem is that salaries are rasing at 3% - whch means in real term people have LESS money… Most people in USA are getting their incomes from salaries…
So housing might be getting as better deal, but untill salaries start feeeling inflanatory pressure it is even more unaffordable!!!
And salaries are not rasing, due to cheap labor in thirld world countries/china/india.
“people must feel very good about their prospects going forward and they are making a statement.”
Frank,
Go pull up Grim’s charts; sales/inventory. Are you auditioning for a spot on the Career Builder commercial?
This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects. Go out and make some sales instead of blogging.
frank
RE prices in NJ are currently:
A) Rising
B) Falling
C) Staying the same
Please pick one, for our edification, so we can have a baseline to work with. Also, please answer skeptic’s question at 173.
Thank you in advance for your time.
Pat Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
Just stating to someone that their 401(k) is safe because it’s an individual (assigned) account does not take into consideration other risk factors. So, of course, being the 401(k) reform freak that I am, I needed to rant.
Pat: I forget my pension accounting from 25 years ago. Are DC plan assets even consolidated? I assume not, as there is one-to-one matching of assets and liabilities, and creditors of a firm cannot attach (not attack) to DC plan assets. Isn’t that the entire purpose of the master trust?
212 frank
“This board sounds like bunch of RE agents crying about their sales prospects.”
To someone completely lacking in perception, perhaps it does.
To the rest of us, it sounds like a bunch of wolves laughing and rubbing their paws with glee as the sheep, too exhausted by running to and fro in a state of sheer panic, collapse in terrified and hopeless exhaustion.
Maybe your just hearing the dinner bell.
Good time, pal, good times.
you’re
frank what you see in NJ CA and everywhere else in consumption addiction. and like any other addiction, the more you do it the better you feel. but ultimately it is a hollow pursuit. You can cheer lead all you like, but until you can refute the basic underlying financials(i.e how can someone reasonably borrow 5-8X their annual income without being a significant default risk,, Banks no longer handing out free money) then your points are noting but the complaints of someone who has a vested interest in prices and consumption staying artificially inflated and is scared to death of what is to come.
Frank,
The CA market’s price increase was much higher than NJ, hence the faster and steeper depreciation.
But what do you care, you “and your friends are still making money in RE in NJ and NYC”.
Which I find to be odd since you have no concrete information on pricing… where are you making these “deals”? What kind of increases are you making?
214 chi
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
#180
“We can talk all we want but the bottom line is that you can still make money in NJ RE, rest of the country is another story.”
so are you buying?
It is the end of the world as we know it!!!
Two Bedroom Two.5 bath mint condition 72nd street apt near central park for sale DISTRESS SALE.
Hey must mean we are getting near a bottom.
http://www.maltzauctions.com/auction_detail.php?ID=386556
207 frank
So your position is that the fact that an item is overpriced is an indication that it will increase in price.
Logic; dear me, what do they teach them in these schools.
frank = the new Reinv101
sl
#173,
“The NYC-metro market is in real and accelerating decline compared to a year ago. That is what we are talking about. Do you disagree?”
Some parts of NJ RE market are in decline, yes, I agree, but when you look at the 10 year trend, prices have doubled, tripled and quadrupled, 6% decline is just a noise.
NJ patient,
my target date for when we really enter depression mode is somewhere around 2010 - 2012 depending on how various factors coalesce.
that is the point when its not gas lines we here about, but food lines for people living in tent city like those springing up in CA
http://features.us.reuters.com/cover/news/D8C99CD0-AF35-11DC-9E67-616F0DA5.html
201 Rich:
the New Jersey Real Estate, Stroller, SickPet, Politics, CarPurchase, Investment and bad-for-you-food report!
sl
njpatient Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
214 chi
Pat will correct me where I’m wrong, and I don’t know that it is the entire purpose, but it is correct that creditors of the employer cannot attack the 401(k) assets.
njp: You know what? I forgot that not only are the creditors of the sponsor restricted from attaching (not attacking), but so are the creditors of the participant….right?
Potential NJ COMP KILLER OF YEAR
OLP 749K, POSSIBLE SALE PRICE 25K
Private Equity Firm Orders Immediate Sale via Public Auction
3.8+ Acre Comm./Res. Redevelopment Opportunity
Former Assisted Living Facility
Previously Listed at $749,000 - $25,000 Published Minimum Bid
Details:
60 Berlin Road, Gibbsboro, New Jersey 08026
Located Within Camden County
Property Consists of Two Parcels:
1) 2.93 Acres w/ 6,458 Sq Ft Building (Requires Extensive Repair/Demolition)
Block: 24 Lot 1.01
2) .91 Acres of Vacant Land
Block: 24 Lot 1.03
Prime Redevelopment Opportunity
Potential Uses Include: Multi-Family, Assisted Living, Single Family Building Lots & More
Zoning: R40 & R15
Conceptual Survey for 4 Single Family Homes/Lots
This Property Sells Absolute, Regardless of Price at or Above the Minimum Bid of $25,000.00.
Auction Date & Time: Thursday, August 14, 2008 at 2:00 p.m.
chi
“but so are the creditors of the participant….right?”
Right.
Actually a few years ago a LI company that self managed its 401k in its last few months in business before bankruptcy they raided the 401K accounts to keep business afloat. Business went under anyhow and workers lost jobs and 401K and became creditors to be paid back at pennies on the dollar.
(”attack” being the old bi joke, of course)
frank
“when you look at the 10 year trend”
“6% decline is just a noise”
wow. Is that how you make investment decisions generally?
lehman closed under 20 bucks a share. Ouch.
cf with the QDRO exception for back child support and or spousal alimony arrears.
I’m getting very paranoid, CF.
No response from pret or re. Grim’s out for the day.
“wow. Is that how you make investment decisions generally?”
Yes, I do.
Actually, the chart I referenced earlier is probably showing a spike in listings in April. Kind of hard to tell.
“In 30 yrs, a $500,000 loan may be worth only about $120,000 if inflation averages 5% over that period.”
I think in that 30 yrs you will have to pay off that $500K regardless where inflation is.
#224 frank: a 6% decline is just a noise.
And you are just clueless.
John Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Actually a few years ago a LI company that self managed its 401k in its last few months in business before bankruptcy they raided the 401K accounts to keep business afloat. Business went under anyhow and workers lost jobs and 401K and became creditors to be paid back at pennies on the dollar.
JJ: Honestly, if that were the case, then I doubt really that they were true 401(k) accounts. They may have referred to them as 401(k)s, it may have reported in the paper as if they were 401(k)s, but if the plan was properly structured and managed, then the administrator of the plan (not the sponsor) would be on the hook for allowing the said company in financial trouble from making withdrawals out of those accounts. It is patently illegal. So either it was (1) not really a 401(k), or else the participants can go after the trustee/administrator for allowing the unauthorized cash transfers. I have no facts, so this opinion is pure conjecture and is worth what you are paying for it.
frank
“Yes, I do.”
You can trade with me any time.
“No response from pret or re. Grim’s out for the day.”
oh my.
“You can trade with me any time.”
njp,
Can I piggyback?
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/1999/02/18/eveningnews/main23546.shtml
Chicago check this out.
In the Long Island case the owner even illegally sent out statements showing the full balance he actually stole the money. However, he had no assets himself either.
spam (143)-
Sounds like this is a situation where you take a look at the guy’s financial statements, then make him any damn offer you want. If there’s a money bleed going on there, then the business is obviously worthless…and your offer can be for the real estate only.
If he’s roasted enough, he might even sell you the building at a discount…
243 BC
“Can I piggyback?”
Happy to give you customary tags and drags.
John 230,
I know the son of the head of finance for that company very well. The owner of the company went behind the back of my friend’s dad and raided those 401K accounts. What an a-hole. I hope the owner rots in prison.
NEW YORK - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. shares fell sharply Monday amid speculation that the nation’s fourth-largest investment bank might be acquired by Britain’s Barclays PLC at a discount price.
The U.K. bank was said to be interested in buying Lehman at a price lower than it is currently worth, traders said. Lehman’s share fell $1.92, or 8.6 percent, to $20.31.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25462241/for/cnbc
Pat (142)-
The recent absences of Tard and Pret speak volumes about where this thing is headed now.
Their silence may be a better indicator than bi’s stock touts.
re: 240 I have heard of companies not deposting the 401k withholdings timely or not at all.
Frank,
6% decline is just a noise
And at what point does this “noise” become an actual trend towards a decline?
6.25%? 7%? 10%?
And fill me in on all this money you and your friends are making in RE in NYC and NJ. Where and what kind of returns.
SL (226),
I know.
But Hostess, now THERE’S a healthy desert cake!
#250
Speaking to that regard, if it is not under your mattress then you should at least be concerned. Any and all funds can be lost, it is just the order of magnitude of the financial shitshow that would be required to do so (FDIC bank accounts included I might add) .
“How to stop the Great Crash of ‘08″
http://tinyurl.com/3kdc84
SAS
2ndary (187)-
“I wonder what they are going to do with their current portfolio of pay option arms. Fixed rate conversions at a nominal fee?”
Fix the rate at 0%…it won’t matter. God knows how many of these jokers defaulted by immediately running the neg am over the limit. They can’t pay at ANY rate.
Of course, a nice, fat principal reduction could salve some wounds here…
Rich, at first, I wasn’t sure about the cupcake parallels. Especially with bi’s English as a second language out.
But I’m liking it. Why does talk often turn to food either an hour after lunch or an hour before dinner?
You need to find a way to use:
RingDings
YankeeDoodles
Krimpets
Bye the way, were you at a Drake’s outlet over the weekend. I’m wondering if you maybe have a whole tower of boxes at home and have been thinking about them all afternoon. Just trying to connect the dots for any new readers here.
Rich In NNJ ,
My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80. It still works in NJ but not in CA.
Model Dies In Fall From NYC Apartment
20-Year-Old Russian Model’s Death Is Ruled A Suicide
I always did wonder if those paper thin models would float or fall when thrown out a window, now I know.
IMF to examine US financial system
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,562291,00.html
The recent absences of Tard and Pret speak volumes about where this thing is headed now.
Their silence may be a better indicator than bi’s stock touts.
Couldn’t agree with you more.
Germany: From Versailles to Hitler.
In the decade leading up to World War I, Germany was an industrial powerhouse. Its currency, the mark, was linked to gold and had been stable for decades, while its industrial regions supplied the rest of Europe with coal and steel, among many other things. But as the war’s loser, Germany carried some unique burdens into the 1920s. Under the terms of its surrender, it was required to create a more democratic form of government, and then to pay war reparations to France and the other victors.
It managed the first, forming the Weimar Republic. But making reparations payments proved to be more challenging. It seems that the previous government had financed the war by borrowing, expecting to win a quick victory and then squeeze its victims to pay off its debts. So Germany entered the 1920s with massive wartime loans on its books. Meanwhile, the victors, meeting at the French palace of Versailles, were no more generous than the Germans would have been, demanding extraordinarily high reparations payments. In 1921, Germany paid off about one-third of the total, mostly through in-kind transfers of coal, iron, and wood. But covering the rest would involve either draconian cuts in services or massive tax increases. And rather than impose such burdens on its constituents, the Weimar government refused to pay the balance of its reparations. France and Belgium then occupied the Ruhr, Germany’s industrial heartland, hobbling its economy even further.
Faced with an exaggerated version of government’s perennial dilemma, the Weimar government chose an exaggerated response, turning on the printing presses and letting them run. The supply of marks surged and prices began to rise. Caught unaware, Germans at first reacted by economizing and reducing their consumption. But when they realized that prices were rising not just for some things but for everything, they began spending their marks as fast as possible. Prices doubled in the first five months of 1922 and from there went right off the chart. A loaf of bread that cost 160 marks in 1922 went for 1,500,000 a year later, and under the stress of hyperinflation, German life became a parody of a modern economy. Workers were paid hourly and rushed to spend their paper before it became worthless. Instead of wallets, shoppers took wheelbarrows and suitcases full of bills to the grocery store. Restaurant prices doubled in the time it took to finish a meal.
With economic chaos came social breakdown. In 1922, Foreign Minister Walter Rathenau was assassinated by right-wing militants, and in 1923 the fledgling Nazi Party attempted a coup. Borrowers found themselves suddenly debt-free, while savers saw their nest eggs evaporate. A pension that in 1920 might have promised a comfortable life couldn’t buy its owner breakfast by 1923. And as always, the very rich suffered least because they owned real assets—like gold coins and food-producing estates—that held their value as paper currency became worthless. By the autumn of 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion marks, Germany’s nervous breakdown was complete.
Then, as quickly as it arrived, the storm passed. In September 1923, Germany’s new chancellor, Gustav Stresemann, and the head of its central bank, Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht, replaced the old mark with the rentenmark, which was backed with gold on loan from America to help Germany rebuild its economy. Nine zeros were struck from the currency, making one rentenmark equal to one billion old marks. In 1924, France cut Germany’s reparations payments to a manageable level, and a semblance of normality returned.
But the vanished nest eggs were never restored, nor were the values of hard work and decency that had characterized prewar German society. As in France over a century earlier, monetary chaos had created a political climate ripe for a demagogue, an opportunity soon seized by Adolf Hitler.
Oh, yeah. Devil Dogs. My fav.
through their unlawful custody of personal files stolen from INS and USIS by the Carlyle Canada private equity group.
frank = casey serin
sl
“My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80. It still works in NJ but not in CA.”
I have a very hard time believing those price points.
#256 frank: whatever you say frank.
Why do I always mix up by, buy and bye on this blog? Any comments?
bi?
#135 I agree with you Kettle. It’s been coming for a long time and there is no stopping it now. It won’t be exactly like the thirties, but the pain level will be similar. I really don’t see how the consumer can stay afloat under the weight of rising prices, a contracting economy, disappearing home equity, massive amounts of debt and no way to take on more.
“My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents”
Frank,
In other words, the market is hot at 50% off. That’s certainly a definition of a roaring bull.
Bottomless: Home Prices to Fall Another 10-15 Percent, Says Schwab’s Sonders
Because inventories remain so high — 10.9 months of supply for new homes — Sonders still believes home prices are likely to fall another 10% to 15% before any talk of a “bottom” can be taken seriously. “Not many metrics we use to judge the health of housing are moving in the right direction,” she says.
For the first time in over a year Peter Schiff is invited to speak at Squawkbox at CNBC tomorrow morning at 7:45AM.
It should make for an interesting discussion. Stay tuned.
#224
“6% decline is just a noise.”
Frank– so we don’t have to repeat ourselves next time: at what point would you say there has been a meaningful decline? 10%?
frank Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80. It still works in NJ but not in CA.
frank:
(1) maybe you misundrstood….”My other friends are buying distressed RE [OF] 50 cent[]…”
(2) are you implying that most RE agents are promiscuous, and your friend is relatively more modest?
#271
LMAO
Is that why people think RE is an easy field to get into, but hard to last long?
he he he
Wait, What? Fiddy Cents on the Dollar?
No, not yet.
Corzine has another New Gimmick. If you renew your Car Registration on-line, their is a New;
“$2 Convenience Fee”. They ask you to Survey at the end of session. I requested they change it’s name to; “Additional Corzine Overhead Tax”.
Confused; that’s not new. I also took the survey and complained about that ridiculous fee last time I registered online.
Frank (256),
See 267.
—————
Chi beat me to the loose comment! Makes me want to attach him!!!
OMG, I just zillowed and found out that our new landlord bought the place for FIDDY CENTS ON THE DOLLAR ON A 15 YR!
Cr@p. I thought I was taking that dude’s money on the rent we got.
How will I every have any pride?
272 Bairen
Good one!
Fiddy, this is a DC commuting down.
It’s coming to NJ. Coming like the night train.
Pat,
In actuality, I was trying to beat the “King of the Non Sequitur” (aka bi) at his own game. I think I succeeded!
You know, it’s possible that bi is so far advanced that he skips steps such that we are left unable to solve the equation. We may be missing the entire picture.
I dunno.
282 Pat
Are you saying he’s Neo?
Yes, in a way.
you can’t beat NJ.
In what other state would real estate be booming and yet incredibly overpriced and yet available for 50 cents on the dollar?
Frank, do you make yourself dizzy?
Sometimes, frank has believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.
Frank, which of these is true?
1. The market is hot unless prices are 50% off.
2. If prices are 50% off, then the market is hot.
bi,
Could you tell us some basics about your biography?
You know ….male/female, how old, where from …
283 Pat
I really don’t see him as a savior. More like a broken clock that happens to be right twice a day.
“In what other state would real estate be booming and yet incredibly overpriced and yet available for 50 cents on the dollar?”
njp,
Sound like the difference between 10:00PM-12:00 AM and 1:30-2:00 AM at Djais.
“You know, it’s possible that bi is so far advanced that he skips steps”
Pat,
He/she skipped about $80 in crude.
Scribe, I thought bi already told us he was male, 30’s, quant, from Kazakhstan.
A quant? The damn blackbox hasn’t melted yet?
Just a guess.
Kudlow’s Closing comments: If Bush is serious about the $, and we start drilling off shore for oil, the bull market for stocks will come roaring back.
To which I add, and if it snows in July…………
I think Grim should adopt this as the blog motto
http://www.despair.com/delusions.html
#291 Pat,
I think you are thinking of Borat
bairen,
just e-mailed you,
BC bob, i just put that post up on my blog that i promised. sorry for the delay i have been working NJ patient schedules again lately :(
click on my name above to get to blog.
#294 3b
Kudlow’s a moron.
It would take a decade to get the infrastructure in place to get any oil from offshore drilling. There’ a huge backlog for offshore rigs. These neocons fail to mention that. They act like it’s planting a corn field and can be harvested in the summer.
#297 kettle
Thanks. Looking forward to reading it/
three hundred!!!!
Pat,
Maybe I missed bi’s bio since I skip a lot of his or her posts.
Or was that a Borat reference?
but bairen
it would certainly fatten the pockets of various oil companies/executives in the short term
yes, Kudlow’s a moron!!
the falling value of the dollar is why we have high oil prices, along with our friends at the World Bank screwing everyone playing the middle man.
everything else is secondary.
you better sell that SUV and buy a bike, or a rice burner!!
SAS
276.Sybarite Says:
June 30th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Confused; that’s not new. I also took the survey and complained about that ridiculous fee last time I registered online.
Probably went in last July 07. I renew both cars in June, so I missed it last year.
#302 kettle1
Too true.
Just think if the money that it would take to get the offshore oil fields going was invested in things like wind and solar farms, and building mass transit rail systems in our cities, I would think the energy created and the oil saved by fewer cars running would surpass whatever those fields would produce. And would provide jobs for tens of thousands of Americans in manufacturing, servicing and running them.
I’m thinking about moving next summer blokes!
I’m not putting a house for sale.
Going to give it away.
maybe turn into a half way house for non profit.
I would like to retire, but I have too many goddamn grandkids, but I will relocate to a more mellow env and just do consulting at home.
we will see.
SAS
sas
where would you move to?
Pile on!
from the WSJ:
“The Florida attorney general on Monday filed a civil lawsuit against Countrywide Financial Corp. and its chief executive, Angelo Mozilo, alleging that the company engaged in deceptive and unfair trade practices.”
Kettle 297 Thanks Ket linked into your blog,
will sleep so much better knowing it’s all going to hell in a hand basket. Any good news today folks. Ism #s tomorrow that should be a real gas.
skep-tic, njpatient, chifi,
Do you guys have jobs or hobbies besides posting on this blog?
“where would you move to?”
I’m thinking Colorado, or northern CA.
SAS
My point is not not to be Mr doom and gloom. but to inform and instigate debate. You cant step out of the way of the train if you cant see it coming.
SAS
Colorodo….. Got water rights?????
you bet your sweet little ass this money is being funneled to Wall St.
(you gotta love those Bank one/JPM tax shelters..just gave you a big hint blokes)
“Afghanistan drug trade hits $4 billion a year”
http://tinyurl.com/3fwt85
SAS
“Do you guys have jobs or hobbies besides posting on this blog?”
hey brother, if anyone wants my job, they can have it.
oh yeah…did I mention I got stabbed once at one of our meetings Liberia.
: )
SAS
… over an iron ore contract…
crazy!
SAS
and when I went to the hospital in Liberia, they literally shewwed the chickens off the tables and laid me down to patch me up.
I think I’ve damn near used up all my 9 lives.
SAS
SAS,
sounds like you would get a long with a friend of mine. He broke his leg while in Namibia. The local doc shot him up with a pain killer before setting his leg. He later asked what it was because he felt great, no pain….. heroin
http://www.mygallons.com/
scribe, no Borat reference. I seriously thought the guy was from kz.
It was biluva’s support behavior. Russian in expression.
kettle1,
yup, I believe your friends story.
Health care in third worlds is scary.
but what is worse, is no health care in the middle nowhere Vietnam. ALot of kids died out there because of this. Kids I miss & think about everyday.
ok.. sorry, I’m going off topic.
back to RE.
SAS
318 Kettle
I swear that’s what the oral surgeon gave me when he pulled my wisdom teeth.
My bro says same about Korea. We don’t know how good we have it until we see our healthy kids.
I was at the pool a week ago, and there was this family with five kids and a little baby. They were tan, blonde and preppy- looking, and stuck to themselves at a back table up in the grass. She set up an old-fashioned beverage dispenser, and they didn’t buy anything from the concession stand. The Dad sat and watched.
I was at the edge of the pool with my “lonely only,” when she came over with the flock. I looked at her and said, “Look at YOUR fine, lucky self, hanging with your bee-A-YOU-tiful children! Just look at YOU!”
She looked shocked. I will admit, I am not easy take for some people.
A couple minutes later, she came over crying and told me nobody had ever, ever said that to her in 12 years. Now, that IS a sad commentary.
frank (256)-
“My friend is a RE agent in Central NJ, this year she has her best year ever, because so many other looser RE agents have left the business. My other friends are buying distressed RE at 50 cents on the $ and selling it at 80.”
I call bullshit.
323 Pat
I guess you have a way with words.
sl (263)-
“frank = casey serin”
Cold. Stone cold.
Both, however, definitely fall into the “Meat Occupying Space” category.
Well, I say what I think.
;P
make (269)-
“For the first time in over a year Peter Schiff is invited to speak at Squawkbox at CNBC tomorrow morning at 7:45AM.”
If you told me they were going to give Schiff a pie in the face, I’d believe it.
Pat (291)-
“…male, 30’s, quant, from Kazakhstan.”
Borat???
BC (292)-
“A quant? The damn blackbox hasn’t melted yet?”
Check again. His blackbox is a toaster.
lost (322)-
Was probably dilaudid, a synthetic form of heroin. I got all four of my wisdoms pulled at once, and they gave it to me.
After a four-day brain cruise, I decided I should ask what that stuff was. Sorta wish I hadn’t.
kettle - no contact info on the blog?
BC Bob - 297, 298 - on fire!
er - 289, 290, that is
310 frank
“Do you guys have jobs or hobbies besides posting on this blog?”
Of course not! I buy incredibly overpriced houses at 50 cents on the dollar and flip them to people who are “making a statement” about their wealth!
310 frank
“Do you guys have jobs or hobbies besides posting on this blog?”
Why would you put people down for posting on a blog that…you post on?
You should really see a professional who could help you with the massive cognitive dissonance from which you suffer.
Or, again, take an elementary course in logic.
320 pat
I called Russian as well.
It’s the turn of phrase. I used to put Mrs. Patient on the floor in hysterics doing interpretive readings of bi’s comments in a thick Russian accent.
327 pat
and we love you for it.
Go on with your bad self.
everyone off to bed, then?
clot
“Borat???”
Yes, but less fashionable.
I always thought bi was Indian with worse than average English - he seemed to care about the large Indian communities in South Brunswick and West Windsor. Maybe just an Indian groupie.
I’ll need to go back to his posts to check out the inflections.
#339
no way, still lots of work left to be done.
not all of us can kick it on easy street, arb-ing SFHs in NJ for a living
Still working.
Well, O.K. I lied.
I’m playing.
#96 John - that sounds exactly like my parents. My mom is now forcing my dad to taking a 2 year lease somehwere because he is waiting for a bottom to buy. In the meantime, every townhouse owner who has their unit up for rent is waiting for the great market turn-around.
I truly enjoy the comp buster posts here the most. I wish there was a similar type of listing called the fishing expeditions. These would be listings that are over priced and never lower their OLP for the entire length of the listing. I have been looking for a house in Mountain Lakes for a while and I see houses that were listed in 2006 and did not sell, re-listed at the same or greater asking price.
Are these people delusional or am just missing something?
There must be other towns that have sellers on fishing expeditions as well.