Alarmism or Fair Warning?

How about something a bit different today? Is this scaremongering or should we heed the warning?

From the Philly Inquirer:

Climate change could cost N.J. billions

Climate change will wallop New Jersey by 2100, endangering lives and causing tens of billions of dollars in losses, according to a recent report issued by the University of Maryland.

The study, part of a project that looked at eight states, was prepared for the National Conference of State Legislators. It follows an international shift toward research on the economic consequence of climate change and adaptation policies rather than how to prevent the change.

“If there’s a bottom line in this research, it’s that delaying action carries a significant cost,” said Matthias Ruth, director of the university’s Center for Integrative Environmental Research and the study’s author.

If global warming continues unabated, the report predicts:

New Jersey’s coast, including Atlantic City, will flood every one to two years, potentially endangering 60 percent of the state’s population and threatening $106 billion in real estate.

Heavily paved Camden will broil in summer, driving up heat-related deaths 55 percent by 2020.

Lacking cold winters, Jersey orchards will stop bearing apples and berries.

Native birch, beech and maple trees will disappear from the state’s forests.

Low-lying access roads could flood, cutting off ports and jeopardizing $100 million in commercial fishing and $42 billion in manufacturing.

“New Jersey will experience among the hardest hits” in the nation, said Ruth, whose organization also researched the economic effect of global warming on Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada and Ohio. Four more case studies are due out in the fall.

In the last century, New Jersey has experienced rising temperatures, increased precipitation, more frequent severe weather, and a sea level rising at nearly twice the average rate worldwide, according to the report, made public on July 23.

If climate change progresses unchecked, the study predicted, an estimated 1 percent to 3 percent of the state’s 210-mile shoreline will be inundated by 2100.

As conditions worsen, tourists will stay away, resulting in an economic loss of more than $3.7 billion a year as early as 2017, researchers concluded. Also lost would be 40,000 jobs.

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375 Responses to Alarmism or Fair Warning?

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Jersey Shore Beach Fees Might Make Sopranos’ Loan Sharks Smile

    New Jersey beachgoers say it’s bad enough that they have to squeeze through traffic jams, buy $4-a- gallon gasoline, and trudge from a parking spot far from the water. Then they must pay to set foot on the sand.

    The state’s 127-mile (204-kilometer) coast on the Atlantic Ocean has 43 communities with public beaches, and all but five charge swimmers, sunbathers and picnickers for entry. Ten of them increased fees this year, by an average of almost 20 percent, according to a report from the Public Advocate’s office. Admission is as much as $12 a day.

    First-timers to the Jersey Shore are surprised because they’ve never had to pay at beaches in other states, said Megan Fitzgerald, who works on the beach in Belmar. Longtime visitors also complain, and argue for an overhaul of the system.

    “The beaches are owned by the citizens of New Jersey,” said Lou DeVoto, 43, who has a summer home in Ocean City. “The fact that you have to pay to get on the beach while it’s public land to begin with is ridiculous.”

  2. grim says:

    For CNBC:

    Wall Street Bonuses Cut—For Those Still With Jobs

    Bankers and traders are bracing for sharply reduced bonuses amid one of the worst downturns ever — and they will be the lucky ones.

    With more than 75,000 jobs already cut and more than $400 billion of credit losses, the proverbial blood is flowing on Wall Street. And while there are still four to five months left in the year, annual bonuses representing the bulk of Wall Street pay are expected to fall by 30 to 40 percent, recruiters and compensation experts said.

    Given the environment, there may be little choice but to accept the cuts and hope for a 2009 rebound.

  3. grim says:

    From the Washington Post:

    New York Feels the Pinch From Wall Street Downturn

    Wall Street’s woes are mounting. Investment banks are swamped by bad mortgage debt. Profits have fallen. Tens of thousands of jobs are being cut. And those lucrative year-end bonus checks are likely to be the stingiest in more than a decade.

    And when Wall Street sneezes, New York catches pneumonia.

    The city and state economies are inextricably linked to the health of the Street. Those reduced bonuses mean fewer dollars to be taxed — and fewer dollars to be spent in high-end restaurants, boutiques and bars.

    “You can feel it affecting the regular lunch crowd,” said Corrado Goglia, the general manager at Delmonico’s, a steakhouse in the financial district. “There’s been about a 20 percent decrease in sales at lunch. People are doing away with larger lunches, the $40 to $50 steaks. They’re going down to lighter burgers.”

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    New Jerseyans Back Windmills, Oil Drilling on Coast, Poll Finds

    New Jersey residents are open to building both windmills and oil rigs off the state’s coast to help combat rising energy prices, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.

    Electricity-generating windmills were supported by 82 percent of respondents while drilling for oil near the coast is backed by 56 percent, according to a statement today from the Monmouth University Polling Institute. Only 14 percent said that offshore drilling is “very likely” to lower gas prices.

    “It’s a symbol for how bad things are getting for many people who can’t make ends meet — that they’ll support something even by their own admission they don’t think will necessarily work,” said Patrick Murray, director of the polling institute, in a phone interview today.

    Two-thirds of New Jersey residents said that higher gas prices are causing financial pain, with half of those earning under $50,000 a year reporting “a lot” of hardship, the poll found. One in five said they changed their vacation plans, either because of higher gas prices or the slowing economy.

    A majority, 53 percent, of New Jerseyans polled blame stock market speculators for the price of oil, while 14 percent cited higher demand.

    Eighty-three percent of residents favored higher gas mileage standards for new cars, though 48 percent supported lowering the speed limit to 55 miles per hour, the survey said.

  5. SG says:

    The ominous sound of jingle mail: The death of the American suburbs

    For some US homeowners, the simplest way out of worsening disaster is to put the keys through the mailbox and walk away. Rupert Cornwell reports.

    Dale City, in Prince William County, 30 miles south of Washington DC, is quintessential outer suburb America: a township of 60,000, notable for huge shopping malls, vast churches, and sprawling parking lots and – until recently, a home building boom that it seemed would never end.

    The street is very much the upmarket end of Dale City. The houses don’t quite fall into the “McMansion” category, but come close. Typically they have four or five bedrooms and as many bathrooms, two- or three-car garages, and stand on an acre or more of land. Many have those “baronial” style double storey entrance halls that Americans so love. At the height of the boom they would go for over $650,000 (£330,000). Now you can pick one up for $450,000 or so.

    Some warn of an even more perilous trend – of “jingle mail”, when home owners who can afford their mortgages decide there’s no point throwing good money after bad, when they already owe more than their house is worth, and the monthly payment jumps yet again. They simply put the keys through the letterbox and walk away. The result is foreclosure and a temporary hit to their credit rating. But US law makes it difficult for a bank to chase borrowers for an unpaid mortgage loan. In the end, the slate is wiped clean.

    The median home price here has dropped to $225,000 from $400,000-plus in just two years. “$300,000 row houses are selling for less than half that,” Mr Khan says. “Amazingly there are properties here, 30 miles from Washington, for under $100,000.” The new trend does not mean the end of the US housing crisis, or even the beginning of the end. But it’s a sign that bad times, like good times, do not last for ever.

  6. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Fannie, Freddie Do More
    To Prevent Foreclosures
    By JAMES R. HAGERTY
    August 4, 2008

    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, trying to contain mortgage-default losses, are redoubling efforts to prevent foreclosures.

    In some cases, though, these moves may only delay the inevitable, easing pressure on the companies’ finances in the short term without resolving their troubles.

    The two U.S.-government-sponsored guarantors of home loans last week said they will increase fees they pay loan-servicing companies for “workouts” that prevent foreclosures. (Servicing companies collect loan payments and handle other administrative tasks.) Freddie also said it will give servicers more time to pursue such workouts.

    Both companies emphasized that they want to keep families in homes. But Joshua Rosner, an analyst at the New York research firm Graham Fisher & Co. and frequent critic of the companies, said they were trying to conserve cash. “It seems they would rather pay servicers to keep the losses rolling into the future even if close to a majority of borrowers redefault because they are unable to handle the mortgages,” Mr. Rosner said.

    Under Freddie’s new incentives, loan servicers will be paid $800 for modifying the terms of a mortgage to avoid foreclosure, up from $400. Freddie also agreed to raise the amount it pays servicers for arranging short sales — in which a lender accepts less than the full amount owed on the loan when a home is sold — to $2,200 from $1,100. Fannie announced similar increases in incentives.

  7. Laughing all the Way says:

    Ruh-roh, here comes that second wave, and sadly, no bailout is going to stop it …

    Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

    The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/04/business/04lend.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin

  8. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

    The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

    Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

    The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

    The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

    While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market, the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two, analysts said.

    Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

    “Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.”

  9. Tom says:

    I read some things recently regarding the effects we’re seeing now form global warming.

    We have more plants growing since plants like higher temps and CO2 but the plants unfortunately are weeds such as poison ivy. The good plants aren’t doing so well.

    Stock up on benadryl :)

  10. Tom says:

    The other day, I went to check out a foreclosure that I was pretty sure was still owned by the bank. I had seen some other houses with overgrown lawns and other signs that they were not being kept up.

    This one caught my eye last year because a family member was interested in buying in Fort Lee. The judgment was relatively small compared to the last sale price. I posted some pictures and details this morning. I hadn’t looked into it in a while and was surprised it the bank hasn’t sold it. It’s in a good town on a good street. Probably a little overpriced for an REO though and I think it’s the biggest house on the street. But I saw some similar new construction around the corner.

    Thanks to Rich for giving me some of the details from MLS.

    I thought there was legislation in NJ that required banks to maintain their REO’s but I haven’t been able to confirm that. Anyone else been seeing properties like these locally?

  11. Laughing all the Way says:

    beat you by a minute, Grim! Sorry we missed the GTG – were in B’More for a birthday party.

    Hadn’t been there in awhile, but it’s a lovely area. Outside of the nice areas – Fells Point, Inner Harbor, we’ve felt safer in NYC, though.

    Naturally, they are getting HAMMERED by the RE market. Ritz Carlton went and built a ton of expensive on-the-water condos in the Harbor … when the place had its grand opening last week, only 40% were bought.

  12. lostinny says:

    Make Money or anyone else who might care about SI. Toshiro?
    Read this weekend that out of 57 units in The Pointe, 3 were occupied and 4 were supposed to be moved into this week. 7 out of 57? What a waste. Can’t wait to see what they’ll rent for.

  13. lostinny says:

    Oh and the Po Po’s and Elvis were fantastic last night. Great show!

  14. SG says:

    Warning as HSBC profits fall 28%

    HSBC has warned that conditions in financial markets are at their toughest “for several decades” after suffering a 28% fall in half-year profits.

  15. DL says:

    Certain entities (home builders, car dealerships, etc.) are getting a painful lesson in supply and demand. Of course, politicians believe they can legislate their way out of it. Pass a law and tax receipts will go up, incomes will raise, gas will become less expensive. Maybe they could do something about that pesky law of gravity while their at it.

  16. Essex says:

    Whew…..that is it! I am moving to Missouri.

    Joking.

  17. tbw says:

    Looks like none of you will be buying a house until the year 2101 lol.

  18. grim says:

    I don’t know if I’d go that far, but I might just think twice about buying a house on the skinny part of LBI.

  19. tbw says:

    You wouldn’t go that far, but I am sure some probably would…

  20. bairen says:

    I gotta complain to my congresman about this global warming thing how we are not doing enough.

    as soon as i find some paper mixed in with my 3,000 DVD collection I have in my 5,000 sq ft house with the temperture set to 68 in the summer and 76 in the winter i’m going to write a letter on organic bamboo, then back my H2 out of the 3 car garage to drive to the mailbox at the end of my block.

  21. BC Bob says:

    And I thought some on this site were bearish? Maybe tbw [# 19] is right?

    “Housing Prices – Let me touch on this briefly. Prices are going to drop another 20-50% without a Depression.”

    “Admitting Defeat – The lenders I speak with know they are dead. They have no problem admitting it now. They realize their jobs are over, and they are on borrowed time. They are nothing more than liquidators now, and they are doing a lousy job at it.”

    http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/

  22. Tom says:

    “Housing Prices – Let me touch on this briefly. Prices are going to drop another 20-50% without a Depression.”

    I don’t know about that, I think more than a few people will be totally bummed out. :)

  23. Al says:

    I am sorry but anyione else seeing something STRANGE about this statement:

    and a sea level rising at nearly twice the average rate worldwide, according to the report, made public on July 23.

    ????????

    Physics laws, Gravity and water are different in NJ as well???

  24. tbw says:

    Truth is, we can’t predict what is going to happen 5 minutes from now, let alone years from now.

  25. #13 – lost. Thanks for the info! The occupancy rate sounds about right. I pass by The Pointe all the time on the weekends, I honestly thought they weren’t even for sale yet the place looked so empty.
    There are about another 3 big projects right by the terminal that are the same and look completely empty.

  26. BC Bob says:

    “Truth is, we can’t predict what is going to happen 5 minutes from now, let alone years from now.”

    tbw,

    Sure you can. The question is whether you are right or wrong. Ask John Paulson.

  27. lostinny says:

    27 Toshiro
    I think its the same deveoper for all those projects. I also hear they are building a coop unit down Bay St. in Stapleton where some units will be low/middle income rate and some will be market rates. Why build more when what they have already built won’t sell? And these people need to come back to earth because I’d really like to get into Bay St. Landing and prices won’t go down there unless these other people get a grip too!

  28. bi says:

    bairen, r u impersonating al gore?

    >bairen Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 7:48 am
    I gotta complain to my congresman about this global warming thing how we are not doing enough.

    as soon as i find some paper mixed in with my 3,000 DVD collection I have in my 5,000 sq ft house with the temperture set to 68 in the summer and 76 in the winter i’m going to write a letter on organic bamboo, then back my H2 out of the 3 car garage to drive to the mailbox at the end of my block.

  29. Stu says:

    Consumer spending after inflation drops in June

    Monday August 4, 8:37 am ET
    By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer

    Inflation-adjusted consumer spending falls as prices surged by largest amount since 1981

    WASHINGTON (AP) — The government says consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, fell in June as shoppers were hit with the biggest increase in prices in nearly three decades.

    The Commerce Department reported Monday that consumer spending dipped by 0.2 percent in June, after removing the effects of higher prices, the poorest showing since a similar drop in February.

    The data show that higher prices reflected a big surge in gasoline costs and helped to drive an inflation gauge tied to consumer spending up by 0.8 percent in June, the biggest increase since a 1 percent rise in February 1981.

    The big rise in inflation ate up a part of the billions of dollars in stimulus payments delivered during the month.

  30. NJGator says:

    21 Grim – But is does make the ‘cheap’ places 5 blocks to the beach in Ship Bottom or Surf City a little more attractive, huh? Maybe I can get a cape for sub 500k that will be oceanfront before I am ready to retire :)

  31. Stu says:

    NJ Gator:

    Perhaps a better investment might be a nice beach house in Hight Point?

  32. Ahh, I now see why they’re not occupied. $450k for St George on an very busy intersection. A note to Casandra Properties; this is not Williamsburg.
    #20 – lost – There is a ton of development work still being done on Bay St. I kind of dig the Bay St., St. George area as it reminds me of the the way NYC was like when I was a kid. I could be a pretty cool place; walk to the ferry, nice views of the city at night, etc. But they want Billyburg prices and it’s just not the same.
    You and I have been looking at some of the same places.
    From what I understand part of the reason they’re still building, even with the lack of sales, is that condos/coops/etc built now, even unoccupied, are still eligible for tax abatements. That’s only a rumor though.

  33. Confused In NJ says:

    A bullet proof Humvee may be a more practical purchase, then an unmoveable House in the current environment.

  34. lostinny says:

    Toshiro
    450? They were trying to sell units in the 600’s! As a matter of fact, there are a few on sibor that have been on there forever with no reductions. And one of them is 615. They are smoking crack!
    Yes I like the area too. They do think it’s the next Williamsburg or even Hoboken. But with the segregation, close mindedness and lack of decent transportation in the area, and to the city, it will never happen.

  35. My personal favorite of SI real estate;
    http://www.thetidesatcharleston.com/
    Prices are $800k, for a lovely view
    of some Jersey refinery.

  36. bi says:

    folks, oil will go to $40+ soon as long as everyone follows following instructions:

    “There are things you can do individually, though, to save energy. … Making sure your tires are properly inflated – simple thing. But we could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling – if everybody was just inflating their tires? And getting regular tune-ups? You’d actually save just as much!”

  37. 3b says:

    #23 BC Bob: Tons of condos fro sale in Ocean City MD., Entire buildings that are empty and unlit at night.

    Another building with a For Sale sign on every balcony.

    Block after block of condos and houses for sale. Realtor signs that scream hey we do short sales.

    But we had a great time,a nd yes we did hit Shenanigan’s on the board walk;good time as always.

  38. kettle1 says:

    kettle1 back online! :)

  39. twice shy says:

    Lost [29],

    Are you really considering buying in SI? Many of your posts have indicated a large amount of disdain for the island. Do you want to own there despite the problems?
    Just wondering.

  40. 3b says:

    #26 tbw: No beut we can make some pretty good educated guesses.

    After all any one who predicted a housing debacale a couple of years ago was scorned and laughed at.

  41. kettle1 says:

    WOW, being off line for 3 days is brutal, its a full time job just staying up to date, never mind trying to catch up on 3 days of general news and the NJRE blog!!!

  42. Stu says:

    “kettle1 back online! :)”

    Thanks for the warning :P

  43. Clotpoll says:

    My favorite from Mike Morgan’s latest screed:

    “One thing that bugged me over the last year was the level of inventory and the NAR numbers. Nothing seemed to add up, but I kept this to myself. I believe we have more homes (apartments and single family) than we have people to live in them. Absorption rate is not a function of historical sales numbers. We are looking at a new dimension of absorption . . . and the builders are still building . . . because the banks are still lending . . . and then foreclosing . . . and the unsinkable Titanic eventually sank, even though the band kept playing.”

  44. bairen says:

    #30 bi,

    Some what.

    I find Ed Begley Jr. to be much more credible and respectable than Al G.

    Begley lives in a pos bungalo (is that the California version of a pos cape?), has solar panels, drives a hybrid, cooks in solar ovens, has low energy lightbulbs, even has a stationary bike rigged so when he works out he can charge up batteries that run the electric in his house, composts, brings his own bags when he shops.

    Al flies around the world in private jets and owns 3 mansions.

  45. Stu says:

    “I find Ed Begley Jr. to be much more credible and respectable than Al G.”

    I find Ali G. to be much more credible and respectable than Al G.”

  46. kettle1 says:

    regarding weather and climate change:

    The changes the the human race (not just 1 country) would need to make are extreme enough that such changes WILL NOT happen until after the people see the real effects. The real effects may not be recognized for 5 yrs or 30 yrs.

    The changes needed would require developing nations to essentially stop development (fossil fuel based anyway. and it would require developed nations to scale back at a staggering level.
    Politicians are worried about a slowing in economic growth. The changes needed to slow climate change would induce substantial negative economic growth initially while there is the opportunity for the long term outcome to be positive.

    The time frame is the problem. Local and global problems are solved on political time scales, i.e 2, 4, 6 years. This is change n the order of decades.

    Did everyone miss Mr Doom and Gloom

  47. Nom Deplume says:

    [47] Ket,

    Yes, we missed you.

    You missed some fun in Bucks. I learned that, after a 10 year hiatus, I can still put a double tap in the K ring at 20 yards. You’ave been proud.

  48. lostinny says:

    40 Twice
    Yes its true I hate Staten Island. I don’t even have words for how much I dislike it. However, since DH works in Jersey (Union County) and I work in Brooklyn, SI is middle ground, making it the most convenient choice for us. If we moved to NJ, the commute would kill me. If we moved to Brooklyn, the commute would kill him. So we’re stuck because neither one of us is willing to give up our jobs.

  49. bi says:

    It is not a fiction! there are 4 books about one candidate in amazon.com best seller list : #1, #6, #23 and #25:

    http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/53/ref=pd_ts_b_nav

  50. bairen says:

    #46

    Booya shakka

    I love Ali G interviewing famous people. shows how cluelss most of them are.

  51. Nom Deplume says:

    More proof in my long-held belief that vain conspicuous consumption is one of the major props in our economy:

    Down economy spares no one, including the rich

    The rich are sharing your financial pain — and contributing to it.It may have taken longer and it may not be as acute, but there are early hints that the economic slump is crimping the lifestyles of the wealthy.

    They are investing more conservatively, spending less on luxury goods and are being more thrifty with their credit cards. Many are asking their personal shoppers and private-jet travel providers to seek the best deals rather than over-the-top extravagances.

    That news may produce a shrug from many people who have lost their jobs or homes in this economy. The problem is that when the wealthy get stingy, it trickles down to the rest of us.

    ******

    To be sure, the poor and middle-class are being hurt more, but upper crust thriftiness could reverberate across the rest of the economy.

    The 10 percent of households with the highest incomes account for nearly a quarter of all spending, according to data compiled by research firm Moody’s Economy.com from a 2006 federal survey.

    “That does suggest those folks are important for the spending outlook, and the overall economic outlook,” said Scott Hoyt, Moody’s director of consumer economics.

    Other government data show households in the top one-fifth of the U.S. population ranked by income earn about half of all total personal income before taxes — an imbalance that gives the wealthy immense economic clout, said Sara Johnson, an economist at the research firm Global Insight.

    “Consumer spending makes up 70 percent of gross domestic product, and when one group accounts for a very substantial share of consumer spending, they also account for a large share of the economic activity that creates jobs,” Johnson said.

    http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/08/04/wealthy.spending.ap/index.html

  52. kettle1 says:

    bairen 45

    You just naile done of our (humans) biggest problems. nature drives us to demonstrate our reproductive fitness (cars money homes boats) while our intellect tells us to play nice with our environment. Our nature and intellect got us this far together. trying to turn one of those off is much easier said then done. hence the reason that you can never have the whole population discuss, how dare you suggest that someone cannot/should not have as many children as they please.

  53. Stu says:

    BI:

    We know already. You have a fear of the black man. How do we know? In all of your Forest Gumpish rantings, not once have you given a reason as to why he should not be president.

  54. House Hunter says:

    article stating “good” loans moving into troubled waters
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/26009196

  55. bairen says:

    #53 kettle1

    Yep. Oddly enough Ed landed a trophy /sports car like wife, while Al landed a, hmm. i’ll be nice and just say Al doesn’t appear to be superficial in one area of his life.

  56. House Hunter says:

    woops, laughing already posted…

  57. John says:

    I am very impressed with all the good John stories this weekend. It reminds me of a few stories from back in the 1980’s involving a club call “4d” I will tell the story in the triology formate since it is a good one.
    Anyhow back in the summer of 1987 my buddies and I decided to go into the club promotion business as a way to make extra cash and score. There was a new hot club over by Times Square that decided to give us a try. We even printed up invitations with the names of the people “sponsoring” the event and threw in pseudo celebs, thinking was they would not believe real celebs would go, we had people like corey feldman and matt dillon’s brother on our sponsor list. Anyhow the owner did tell us “look your guys better be here before 10pm or I will charge you the $20 dollar cover to get into your own thing”. Guess he had his share of deadbeat club promoters.

    So anyhow I volunteer to drive my pos fiat strada as it was a garbage car so as usual we are running late and I can’t find a spot, I drop the boys off at 9:50am out front and told them if I don’t get a spot in ten minutes you guys owe me big time. So I am driving like a maniac over on Hells Kitchen looking for a spot, and back then it looked like Hell. I hang a ralphie on 10th to head back up to club and I see some god damm pos honda with two big haired hose monsters from NJ scoping spots, the street was a wide one way and hose monster one was looking left and hose monster two was looking right for spots. Anyhow I blow past them on the left and go around a 1/3 of the way up the block to try and out scoop them for a spot, I take a glance in my rear view mirror to see where the hose monsters are and holy crap some 80 year old lady coming out of one of those crappy walk ups steps out between two parked cars and the girls are still looking for spots and they nail her right betwen the headlights sents up a good 20 feet in the air and she lands backwards on the street and you hear her head crack open on the side walk. Well the NJ girls come to a skid in front of the body without running it over and I nail my own brakes. Well the hose monsters sit their for like 20 seconds in shock as I do, then all at once she floors in in reverse and does a netural drop into first to get around the body, I floor it backwards to intercept them but then a cabbie behind them cuts in front does a starksy and hutch and the hosemonster from NJ jumps out and goes I was only trying to pull over I was not going to hit and run. (yea right), I looked at my damm clock and I am down to 9:56 I got four minutes to go to get in for free and not a good idea to get me and the cops involved over a dead body in the 80s in Hells Kitchen. I nail first gear and take off with the whole street to myself I nail a spot and make the club with one minute to spare. I get in and my friend is mad as this girl who is smoking, smoking hot with a bf he invited under the pretense this was not a date was getting hit on my the bartender who was non other than the notrious bagel boy from great neck who was dating cher at the time and he had already asked her out on a date. Well 15 minutes into the evening I have a dead body and the boys are about to get into it with Chers boyfriend I knew this was going to be a long night which I will leave for part two.

  58. twice shy says:

    49 [Lost],

    Thanks. Got it. Yours are exactly the kind of compromises many of us have to make. I was actually considering SI at one point, but have decided against it.

  59. lostinny says:

    59 Twice
    There are some beautiful areas of SI with some very down to earth people. We rent in a beautiful area right now that I love but I don’t think we could swing buying here. We are very specific about where we would buy, including the development that Toshiro and I have talked about, because we’re not looking to live next to Pauly Walnuts. Those types wouldn’t live in areas we’re looking at anyway. It’s too ghetto for them. At least that’s what they think.

  60. Secondary Market says:

    i have a feeling this thread is going to derail after John’s wonderful story but here is quick snap shot of what Chase is up to:

    “Chase has made a business decision to suspend our Non-Agency Fixed and ARM (Amortizing and Interest-Only) Product offerings within the Wholesale Lending Business.

    We have made this decision based on a variety of reasons including the following:

    · A dramatic reduction in Jumbo volume levels over the past six months
    · A lack of Capital Markets appetite for Jumbo products
    · Worse than expected delinquency performance on these loans”

  61. bi says:

    Stu, i have no fear of any black man. colin powell is the first person i would vote for president.

    i figure $40+ oil is not unrealistic

    >#54 Stu Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 9:37 am
    BI:

    We know already. You have a fear of the black man. How do we know? In all of your Forest Gumpish rantings, not once have you given a reason as to why he should not be president.

  62. Nom Deplume says:

    [54] Stu,

    I can come up with a raft of reasons NOT to vote for Ob*ma other than race. Many of these reasons are debated regularly, many are not.

    I have not imbibed the kool-aid. I personally don’t think BHO is a bad guy, and I laud his willingness to sacrifice for what he perceives as the greater good, just as McCain is doing. Both men could be doing something else, and left a lot of money and self-interest on the table. You must acknowledge that no matter how jaundiced your view. Me, I would be more selfish with my future and personal life.

    ATEOFTD, most voters vote self-interest first, and I am no different. On balance, Obama is bad for me and my interests. I believe that my interests are aligned with those of most Americans (meaning I am the archetypical average guy), and when I look down the road, I see bad things for most average americans, even those that would supposedly be helped. Policy actions produce reactions, and the reactions that will be produced by BHO (and to be fair, democratic) changes will cause considerable dislocations, and will create more rifts than they heal.

    I may be wrong, but that is what I foresee and I have been a pretty damn good prognosticator up until now (I seriously wish I had the conviction to back up my predictions with money but no dice thus far).

  63. John says:

    That wamu bond is back on my screen.

    WASHINGTON MUT INC SB NT 4.625% 04/01/2014 Price (Ask) 50.000
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 19.665%
    Third Party Price 49.500
    CUSIP 939322AN3

  64. Nom Deplume says:

    [62] Bi,

    True dat. I wish Colin had the fire in the belly. Looking forward to reading his book, which we just got.

    Grim, 63 in mod

  65. twice shy says:

    Lost,

    It might make sense for us to rent on SI to get a feel for the place. What rental areas would you recommend for me (or any of us on the blog who are interested) to look?

  66. WCI files for bankruptcy – Ch 11 (about time a builder went).
    $1.8 bil of debt will soon be in default. They have $50mil of cash on hand. Could find financing for the rest. They state they will continue to build (!?), deliver and sell homes.

  67. twice shy says:

    Barely 10 AM on a Monday and we have the first chapter of John’s new novel. Anyone want to volunteer a title?

  68. #67 – Could find financing for the rest.
    That should read…Could not find financing for the rest.

  69. Clotpoll says:

    Roubinator on CNBC, laying down the smack.

  70. Clotpoll says:

    2nd (61)-

    That happy little missive hit my office fax on Friday @ 5 PM.

    Fridays are turning real exciting.

    Anything that doesn’t slide easily through DU these days- FHA being the exception- won’t get underwritten. Period.

  71. Clotpoll says:

    Confused (35)-

    I think the new home improvement craze will involve 9-foot, broken glass-encrusted walls.

    These worked real well in Colombia.

  72. 3b says:

    #62 bi: I figure $40+ oil is not unrealistic.

    Based on what?

  73. NJGator says:

    For those of you folks looking in GR, 319 Maolis came back on the market last week. Me suspects it was due to “buyer non-performance”. I have seen quite a bit of that in my Montclair and GR listings recently.

  74. bi says:

    72#, 3b, it is so simple. check my post #37.

  75. twice shy says:

    BC Bob,

    WCI files Chap 11 (see above). They are NYSE listed.
    Now can we strap on the boots?

  76. Rich In NNJ says:

    #62 bi: I figure $40+ oil is not unrealistic.

    Plus what? $2, $75, $90, $100?

  77. alice says:

    lostinny–

    I don’t post often but…

    I grew up on SI, graduated from Tottenville HS and St. John’s University (SI campus) and commuted to Manhattan for another 4 years. It wasn’t so bad on the south shore (Annadale to Tottenville) in the 1960s because it was basically old timers and woods (with copious pot smoking kids in them). I left in 1988 as soon as I saved up enough money for a security deposit on an apartment in Bloomfield, NJ.

    Today SI is a hellhole. The politicians are incredibly corrupt, the traffic is a nightmare. Public transportation is the ninth level of Gehenna.

    Do whatever it takes not to buy there. The few good people you meet are like the righteous of men of Sodom and are doomed.

  78. kettle1 says:

    regardless of whether you agree with Bi or my view on oil, whenever someone makes such a claim as $40 oil of $200 oil, please demand numbers to back that up. I would love to see someone put up consumption/supply numbers backing up $40 oil. compare the barrels save by tire pressure to general demand growth as well as the quality of oil being pumped.

    hint: light sweet crude and oil shale do not have the same energy content, i.e 1 barrel of oil from oil sale IS NOT equal to 1 barrel of light sweet crude.

  79. lostinny says:

    Twice- this will be long
    I have to tell you it’s a hard call in SI. But for me, the areas I like best are Grymes Hill (where I live) Clove Lake (just down the hill), Ward Hill (the other side of my hill), Silver Lake (down another side of my hill). I don’t know of people renting in Todt Hill or Emerson Hill but they are also very well off areas. If you’re looking for something slightly more urban but still suburban, there are some parts of Rosebank and Fort Wadsworth that might do well. I also like parts of West Brighton as some of their older colonials and victorians are breath taking. For a far more urban feel, there are a few parts of St. George that might do. The Bay St. Landing development is a fantastic gated community of lofts with a 5 minute walk to the ferry. They are very dog friendly which is a huge plus for me. The views (if you can get them) of the skyline are amazing. We actually thought about buying one loft that was very overpriced just because the view was so unreal.
    All of these areas are on the North Shore. There are affluent areas of the South Shore that some people may find lovely. My parents live in Annadale and they and my brother love it there. You couldn’t pay me to live there again. I am done dealing with Tony Soprano. If I have to deal with him, its going to be out at the store. I’m not going to live next door to him.
    If you’d like more info get my email from Grim.

  80. lostinny says:

    Alice
    Honey I also grew up in Annadale, graduated from Tottenville and even worked there for a while. Can you say torture? I would rather light myself on fire then stay here. But unfortunately, its not realistic for us to leave. Unless of course, I hit the lottery. In which case, we’ll move back to Manhattan, buy a home in New Orleans and a condo on the beach in Maui. :) Hey, I can dream!

  81. lostinny says:

    Oh Alice btw
    DH lived in Bloomfield when I met him. :)I liked some parts of it.

  82. HEHEHE says:

    You mean she didn’t love me for me?

    “When Tom discovered Cindy had begun cheating on him since he was laid off, their marriage was about as stable as a hedge fund.

    Three months later, with Tom still out of work, Cindy packed her bags and hired a divorce lawyer.

    “I lost my family, lost my kids, lost my income, lost my identity,” Tom told his divorce lawyer, Dawn Cardi, the founding partner at her Park Avenue firm.

    So much for staying together through good times and bad.

    City lawyers say “economic divorces” are skyrocketing as the stock market slumps, Wall Street jobs are cut and bonuses are banished.”

    http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/economic-divorces-wall-street-slumps

  83. Hard Place says:

    Secondary Market – Chase non-agency fixed and arms.

    That’s interesting. Sounds like an official statement. Where did you find it? Should make things harder to finance in upscale towns, since jumbo’s are needed for these areas. Sounds like jumbo market is dying.

    As for John’s story, i guess i’ll have to wait for part II, cuz part I was kind of weak.

  84. HEHEHE says:

    ‘Walkaways’ go mainstream
    Commentary: Watch out for credit starvation and ‘HoHo’ humiliation

    http://www.inman.com/buyers-sellers/columnists/loubarnes/walkaways-go-mainstream

  85. NJGator says:

    Can someone with GSMLS access let me know if the listing for 4 Haran Circle in Millburn has been updated with a sale price? I’m curious to see what it is.

    Thanks.

  86. Tom says:

    “HEHEHE Says:
    “When Tom discovered Cindy had begun cheating on him since he was laid off, their marriage was about as stable as a hedge fund. “

    I know Cindy an I have had some heated exchanges on here but that doesn’t mean we’re having marital difficulties.

    In fact, we’re not married. Never even met. Don’t you hate how the media exaggerates?

  87. HEHEHE says:

    Manhattan Office Rents Will Drop, Brokerage Giant Says

    For perhaps the first time, commercial brokerage giant Cushman & Wakefield predicted unequivocably that Manhattan office rents would drop, in its just released second quarter investment sales report.

    http://www.observer.com/2008/real-estate/brokerage-giant-predicts-drop-commercial-rents

  88. BC Bob says:

    “Now can we strap on the boots?”

    2X,

    Getting close. The boots are out of the closet. Waiting for the 2nd to announce. I actually thought the 1st would be Beazer.

  89. #66 – twice – I’ll largely second what lost says in 80.
    Actually, I think I might go a little farther and say if I were to stay on the island it would only be in the St George area.
    Most of the rest of the island should be avoided as if it were plague ridden.
    I currently live in Charleston, which is all the way the south side. There is nothing to recommend living here. You can get cheaper and better in NJ.
    Parts of Tottenville are cool though. It’s an old fishing village, with narrow street and 100-200 yr old homes. Very New Englandy.
    If you work on Manhattan it is quicker to commute in from most areas of NNJ.

  90. HEHEHE says:

    Tom,

    You don’t have the money to know Cindy!

  91. lostinny says:

    OMG Toshiro
    You live in Charleston? You poor thing! How do you deal with it there?
    I think St. George is a different kind of taste though. I mean if people from Jersey who are used to more suburban areas came to SI would they like St. George? It would almost be like Jersey City for them wouldn’t it? I think you must want an urban area to be happy in St. George.

  92. kettle1 says:

    who would have guessed!?!? the trophy wife left when the money did. I’m shocked!!!

  93. Sybarite X says:

    Gator,

    $590k

  94. kettle1 says:

    BI,

    regardless of inflated tires here is a chart showing the general trend of natural gas EROEI (also called EROI). The same behavior seen in this chart is happening to oil and most other fossil fuels. 1 barrel of oil at high EROEI is not the same as 1 barrel of oil at low EROEI, the same principle applies to all energy sources.

    http://tinyurl.com/6fp5zl

  95. NJGator says:

    Thanks, Syb!

  96. Stu says:

    From Crossing Wall Street:

    How are those Stimulus Checks Doing?

    Good news, thanks to those government stimulus checks, consumer spending increased by 0.6% in June!

    Oh, the downside is that inflation increased by 0.8%.

    The Federal Reserve meets again tomorrow, and no change in rates is expected, although I wouldn’t mind seeing rates climb 50 points from here.

  97. Secondary Market says:

    @83
    Hard Place,

    Mass email from Chase to brokers (my buddy passed it along to me).

    Yes, the qualified applicant pool gets smaller and smaller by the day.

  98. #92 – How do you deal with it there?

    I spend most of my free time in either Manhattan or NJ.

    I think St. George is a different kind of taste though
    It is, I probably should have noted how urban it is. You’re right, someone coming from suburban NJ might not feel too comfortable in the environment. Quite a few immigrants, both legal and illegal, very close to what Jersey City is like; brownstones, graffiti and Wu Tang.
    I dig the feel but not everybody would.
    A NYT article on Hipsters in St George . Not that I’m a hipster… despite my hipster glasses, holga and converse A-Stars.

  99. John says:

    Secondary Market Says:
    The pool of qualified applicants is still the same as it was back in 2006. The issue is the banks are no longer giving upqualified applicants a loan.

    A trophy wife should ditch you when you get laid off just like the blackjack throws you off the table when you run out of cash.

    SI is a wack place, the goom ba’s all live by todt hill, the white trash by the dump and the rest was all the firemen, cops, bus drivers and garabe men mixed in with the wall street secretaries.

    August 4th, 2008 at 11:02 am
    @83
    Hard Place,

    Mass email from Chase to brokers (my buddy passed it along to me).

    Yes, the qualified applicant pool gets smaller and smaller by the day.

  100. lostinny says:

    Toshiro
    I’m with you there. I remember that article. Honestly, I don’t know what I was thinking moving back here. What a mistake that was. :)

  101. alice says:

    It says alot about SI that to me the Watsessing area of Bloomfield (near the decrepit train station and on the bus route to the East Orange garage) was a step up.

    I graduated THS 1979.

  102. bi says:

    when will this $1000 check available?
    i hope nobody here will be left out this time because we all suffered from high gasoline price.

    The full text of the plan is highlighted with subheads that read, “Take a Portion of the Windfall Profits from Big Oil and Put $1,000 in the Pockets of Working Families” and “Forcing big oil companies to take a reasonable share of their record breaking windfall profits and use it to help struggling families with direct relief.”

    http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=71197

  103. HEHEHE says:

    New Rules at Freddie Mac Likely To Backfire

    We both think that doubling the length of time to do a workout is just begging freeloaders to take advantage.Those who have made up their minds to walk away, may now be able to live rent free for 10 months before the foreclosure proceedings start.

    Assume a $2,000 mortgage payment. 10 months non-payment would allow someone to save up $20,000 before walking away. That’s one hell of an incentive Freddie is offering someone who is making a walk, no-walk decision.

    http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/08/04/alarmism-or-fair-warning/#comments

  104. Stu says:

    bi:

    Keep dreaming. Your oil solutions are so simple that they probably came from the front page of the New York Post. ‘Nuff said!

    Want to hear the truth for a change? If we use less Mid East oil, China is gonna get it cheaper from our wealthy terrorist friends. This will result in more environmental destruction and an even greater loss in our trade deficit. But go ahead and vote for McCain. The white man who suggests we destroy our shoreline in exchange for 3% of our current usage by 2030. You are a moron.

  105. Stu says:

    Grim 104 in mod. Does the mod sense my anger?

  106. bairen says:

    #82 hehehe

    I would love to read a John story about what happens to 40 something year old trophy wives who dump their out of work IB hubbies yet continue to spend like crazy.

  107. skep-tic says:

    Met with a realtor for the first time last week while I was on vacation (didn’t go anywhere, just stayed home). We drove around a particular town that I’m interested in for about 2 hrs.

    The guy said that prices are off about 25% from the peak and he would recommend opening bids at least 10% below that. He is mostly on the sell side and his frustration was unmistakeable. He said the only people selling right now are people who have to sell, but most of them also cannot cut their prices to the point at which the properties would sell because they would then be underwater. He said short sales are extremely difficult because there is no one to negotiate with at the banks. Basically, from the way he described it, there are multiple roadblocks to the sale of most houses on the market at this point.

    I told him that I might be interested in a few of the houses if they could get to a realistic price, but since it seemed like the sellers would have already gotten there if they could, it was kind of pointless. He was a little annoyed by this, but didn’t really disagree. I told him I would give him a call next year

  108. Stu says:

    Bi:

    I have a better source than the top 10 most popular books at Amazon. I dare you to read this!

    http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/the_budget_according_to_mccain_part_i.html

  109. Stu says:

    Skep,

    Did you offer to pay half the gas?

  110. ADA says:

    Skeptic

    What towns are you looking in?

  111. Sybarite X says:

    #106

    That anecdote seems to support my interpretation of the current state of RE in NJ. It also supports my prediction that there will be a precipitous drop in RE coming soon, the only question in my mind is how soon. As has been said before, this is the perfect storm brewing for RE.

  112. Stu says:

    Oh my! Everything I post ends up in moderation! This is quite annoying Grim.

  113. skep-tic says:

    I did not offer to pay for gas (is this expected?)

    I would rather not say which towns I’m looking at because I’m paranoid and want to stay anonymous. I am not looking in NJ.

    I also believe that when the logjam clears, there will be a big move down in price (at least another 10% by next year). I do not see a compelling case for buying right now.

  114. John says:

    Chase has made a business decision to suspend our Non-Agency Fixed and ARM (Amortizing and Interest-Only) Product offerings within the Wholesale Lending Business.

    We have made this decision based on a variety of reasons including the following:

    · A dramatic reduction in Jumbo volume levels over the past six months
    · A lack of Capital Markets appetite for Jumbo products
    · Worse than expected delinquency performance on these loans
    If it’s not a conforming Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac loan, Chase does not want any part of it.

    US Bank Places Strict Requirements on Jumbos, and Second Loans

    US Bank just sent this out.

    “INTEREST ONLY” PAYMENT OPTION:

    1. For PURCHASE TRANSACTIONS: The Interest Only payment option will no longer be allowed for U.S. Bank Consumer Finance 1st liens when the LTV/CLTV exceeds 80%

    2. For REFINANCE TRANSACTIONS: When the LTV/CLTV is greater than 80% on any U.S. Bank Wholesale ARM the following requirements will apply for the file to be eligible for Interest Only:

    A) An escrow account for taxes, homeowners insurance (and flood insurance if applicable), and HOA fees if any will be required

    B) A minimum of $250,000 of assets/reserves seasoned for a minimum of 60 days will be required.

    WHOLESALE SECOND POSITION LOANS/LINES:

    1. The maximum CLTV for any 2nd loan/line is now capped at 80% in the following states:

    Maryland, Missouri, Connecticut, Ohio, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Virginia, Delaware, and Colorado.
    Those US Bank restrictions on interest only loans are for jumbo loans only, the second note on Combined Loan To Value Ratio (CLTV) is across the board.

    “Chase stops doing all jumbo arms AND fixed products with their wholesale lending business. This is what US Bank should have done instead of their ridiculous requirement of $250000 in liquid assets. US Bank is essentially saying that they don’t want to do this type of product, but the important point is there are still more restrictions being placed on mortgage lending”.

    The CLTV US Bank restriction will eliminate the use of second loans to avoid PMI and caps home equity lines to 80% of the value of the property. I expect appraisals to be tight.

    Other lenders will follow Chase and US Bank which means the cost of getting a jumbo loan, or any other type of non-conforming loan (if indeed you can get one at all), is going to soar. In addition, those wanting to raise cash via a second mortgage are going to find it much more difficult (or expensive), to do so.

  115. NJLifer says:

    Two things I’ve always been embarrassed to ask on this site:

    1. What is the real reference to ‘Brigadoon’. (I know it’s associated in jest to Westwood on this site). Is it a reference to the Scottish village in the musical?

    2. When are posts put into ‘Moderation’?

  116. gary says:

    Dear Sellers,

    Tick… tick…. tick…. tick….

  117. John says:

    I totally miss the concept of a jumbo mortgage anyhow. If you are buying a mansion you should be able to afford a large enough downpayment to get a confirming mortgage. If you are doing it just for the tax write off and you have money many private bankers off 100% collateralized mortgages at a cheap rate. Those loans are 100% collateralized by your financial assets held at the bank. The home is the second form of collateral. By its very nature anyone paying extra for a jumbo should not be getting a jumbo.

  118. Bystander says:

    Brigadoon madness..

    http://www.realtor.com/search/listingdetail.aspx?zp=07090&mxp=27&typ=7&sid=29972d4b2d0549679f33b14725a90c27&lid=1094428888&lsn=4&srcnt=15#Detail

    We can’t sell it for $360K so we’ll offer it at $333K for a week then raise it back $360K???

  119. 3b says:

    #117 NJ Lifer: It is reference to Westfiled NJ, and yes it is based on the magical, mythical Scottish village of Brigadoon that appears once every 100 years.

    Not to boast but I coined the phrase on this blog, which is my only claim to fame here.

  120. 3b says:

    #115 skeptic: I think you will see that 10% decline well before next year.

  121. twice shy says:

    Lost, Tosh and BC Bob,

    Thanks all for the replies.
    Lost, I’m only researching various options for now, but SI has some appeal as we have one Soho commuter and one at-home.

    Then again, I may buy in NJ and hunker down through the depression.

    Bob, I hear you, I’m looking for my darn boots now. I am worried you’re going to move the chains again and say you’re waiting for a third builder to go under, once the second files.

  122. Nom Deplume says:

    The Staten Island Real Estate Report???

  123. Rich In NNJ says:

    #117 NJ Lifer: Certain words trigger a “filter” and will put your post in moderation.
    Or, your name is Stu.

  124. twice shy says:

    Bystander [120],

    That property has been on the market for years. Seller is desperate.

  125. Jamey says:

    Bush finally gets around to surveying the disaster scene:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aEURwsrUSQ&eurl=http://www.americablog.com/

  126. PGC says:

    #120 Bystander

    That vinyl siding on the chimney breast screams “class” and “curb appeal”.

  127. #124 – The Staten Island Real Estate Report???

    Believe me when I tell you Franky, fuhgeddaboutit!

  128. 3b says:

    #125 Rich this listing in River Edge was set to close sometime ( I believe) in late July, and is now back on the market;I guess the seller could not get financing.

    It went UC at 445K, and is back on at the same price.

    It originally came on at 650K!!

    njmls 2809839

  129. bairen says:

    #120

    I hate those 2 story living room looks. Waste of space and you have to pay to heat and cool them. Good luck chaning a lightbulb in one of them too.

  130. twice shy says:

    Not many of us wear kilts here in Brigadoon, but a few I hear are partial to single malt Scotch.

  131. bairen says:

    That batman flick must be jinxed. now Morgan Freeman is in serious condition after a car accident.

    He wrecked his 1997 Maxima. yes. 1997 Maxima

    http://www.wmctv.com/global/story.asp?s=8783679

  132. Nom Deplume says:

    [131] 2xshy,

    Just bought a new bottle of The Balvenie. Patient and Grim are gonna help me drain it.

    Based on latest communiques, we are still proceeding to the Brigadoon GTG this fall.

    Donations of booze and furniture welcome!

  133. bi says:

    130#, trust me, bairen, in a few years you will not buy any house without 2 story living room. yes. it wastes gas and is hard to chnge bulk. but the trade-off is much bigger.

  134. Nom Deplume says:

    [132] barien

    Oh, not good. He is one of my favorite actors, which is saying a lot as I typically don’t like many.

    And as for the maxima, he is a very down to earth guy, so it doesn’t surprise me.

  135. Nom Deplume says:

    [136] tosh,

    Ms. Deplume was planning a lot of shopping in DE soon for the new house. She grew up with Boscov’s

    I think this will fuel the fire. Anyone have a large van I can borrow? Mattresses and patio furniture take up a lot of space.

  136. kettle1 says:

    134 bi,

    yes. it wastes gas and is hard to chnge bulk. but the trade-off is much bigger.

    bi what are you trying to say?

  137. make money says:

    ML implode lender

  138. bi says:

    138#, kettle1, you will be feeling much more confortable in a bright room with high ceiling. you need to pay only a few bucks more for cooling/heating.

  139. ben says:

    “who would have guessed!?!? the trophy wife left when the money did. I’m shocked!!!”

    it’s ok, it’s great when these women hit 35 and start hitting the wall. All you hear from them is “everyone used to be so nice to me”.

  140. Sybarite X says:

    141

    LOL

  141. Essex says:

    These days, even a leather armchair and hot-dog-sized cigar won’t calm Wall Street’s jittery workers.

    “The mood is not good,” drawls one corporate lawyer through a sweet cloud of cigar fumes at Barclay-Rex, an upscale tobacconist near the New York Stock Exchange.

    “There are so many worries over the economy — oil prices, the banking industry — yes, there’s a lot of concern,” says the lawyer, who, like others at Barclay-Rex, one of New York’s few public smoking havens, asked not to be identified.

    The world’s financial capital has been cushioned from the economic slump across the rest of the United States. But now the glitziest US city faces a spectacular fall.

    The state government this week predicted a 26 billion dollar hole in the budget over the next three years and said recession was already underway. “Harsh” times beckon, warns state Governor David Paterson.

    They could be especially tough for the finance sector clustered in the skyscraper canyons around Wall Street on the southern tip of Manhattan.

    The industry lost a record 22.4 billion dollars in the first quarter of 2008, double already record losses notched up last year.

    Of the 188,000 people employed in the sector in 2007, about 25,000 are expected to lose their jobs, New York’s state accountancy office says. Bonuses — slices of profits dolled out annually to employees — are forecast to plummet by 20.5 percent.

    The turmoil, which has seen Bear Stearns bank collapse and mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac seek government rescue, is at the root of pain afflicting homeowners and businesses across the country.

    Nowhere is more exposed than New York itself.

    The city, like the state, relies heavily on taxing big earners. The bear market is already emptying government coffers, meaning fewer police, less infrastructure work, and other cutbacks.

    Regular New Yorkers have little sympathy for traders who may miss out on their million-dollar bonuses at the end of this year.

    Michael Platt, who runs an atmospheric wine shop just off Wall Street, said the money flowing through the district has already stopped trickling down.

    “There’s very little being done by those people — less gift-giving, less parties,” Platt, 41, said.

    “You know why? Greed. People are more greedy. They don’t give. Instead of corporate gifts, they do the opposite: squeeze more and more from people, while giving less and less.”

    Independent economist Joel Naroff said that although Wall Street is at the heart of the nation’s economic downturn, many high-fliers will escape punishment — and even thrive.

    “Wall Street is the source of the problem you see across the country. It rose out of the financial sector, which spread into the housing sector,” Naroff said.

    “The thing to keep in mind is that Wall Street is extraordinarily resilient. It will come back. The only question is when? There will be extraordinary opportunities for some.”

    Another denizen of the wood-paneled smoking room at Barclay-Rex, a cigar-chomping insurance broker, agreed.

    “I’m worried by what’s coming,” he said gloomily. “But this is an opportunity for the talented to get ahead. The less talented will be weeded out.”

  142. skep-tic says:

    #133

    “Just bought a new bottle of The Balvenie.”

    that is my favorite whisky. nothing too fancy; not too peaty

  143. chicagofinance says:

    all….silence….

    kneel before Zod….
    http://www.laphroaig.com/

  144. twice shy says:

    Renting in vogue?

    Last week I heard from my realtor that the upper end in Westfield ($1M+) is soft due to the reasons we’ve discussed here: Wall Street layoffs, fear of same, and bonus reductions.

    The best anecdote by far was a couple seriously considering a $1.5 million plus lovely home (with lovely taxes) deciding to rent instead!

    Never would’ve believed it if I didn’t hear it from a reputable source.

  145. NNJJEFF says:

    question for all:

    First time buyer here. Want to know where to get a decent real estate attorney. Agent recommend a few. Is it always better to go with the ones my agent work with. If not, any suggestion for one in bergen county? and how do I know if they are any good?

  146. BC Bob says:

    “Today nobody is building. Unsold home inventories are triple that of 2003. Banks no longer give easy credit for home buyers. Many realtors I know have gone two years without selling a home. Empty storefronts are becoming common. In many areas unemployment among construction trades people is 50% or more. Tens of thousands of illegal Mexicans who did most of the manual labor have returned to Mexico to find work. What now? Well, I do handyman projects of all sorts, big or small and make about 70-90% of what it takes to survive with a family of a wife and three young children. My savings make up the rest. That can’t go on for too much longer. We went from affluent and comfortable to nervous and broke with diminished opportunities in just three years. We used to be the middle class.”

    http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2008/0804.html

  147. bi says:

    XLE down 4.25%, USO down 3.5%. with this rate of decline, i am wondering who is going to pay our $1000 stimulating check.

  148. grim says:

    The best anecdote by far was a couple seriously considering a $1.5 million plus lovely home (with lovely taxes) deciding to rent instead!

    Not as uncommon as you might think.

  149. PGC says:

    #147 NNJJEFF

    Get my email from grim and I’ll give you mine. She is based in northern Bergen Co.

  150. NJLifer says:

    BC 148 –

    “We went from affluent…”

    There’s one of the problems right there. Growing up, the only folks that were considered ‘affluent’ were doctors and lawyers. When I remodeled my house in 2003, every builder that would show up to give me a bid drove either a BMW or a Benz. These were the types of guys that just barely made it out of high school, if they made it out at all.

  151. frank says:

    NNJJEFF,
    Don’t waste your time and money with an attorney, do it yourself, they are useless.

  152. NJl$rd says:

    OMG… i had a pci consulting gig with this client last year in PA. The people are nice, smart, thrift & working-hard. I did a simple lunch in one of their store cafe and met one of the 80+ family owners – still happily working part-time that’s quite amazing.

    If they’re under the water, the trouble is worse than I originally thought in retail …

    #136 toshiro_mifune Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 12:33 pm

    Boscov’s files Ch. 11.

  153. Stu says:

    And if you screw up, you can sue Frank!

  154. bairen says:

    #148 BC

    If you go burn through all of your savings and go broke over a 3 year period while earning 70 to 90% of your peak income you were never affluent. At best you had a middle class income and moderate savings.
    At worst you had a high income and lived near the edge of your means.

    I think an affluent person can go 3 years without ANY earned income rolling in. To me that’s affluent.

  155. make money says:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=812261135&play=1

    Roubini laying the smack down on CNBC. I can’t believe they still invite him on these shows.

  156. jamil says:

    This story is from OH, but I doubt it is different in NJ.

    School district saves $300k/year in a new contract as it changed school bus company (private instead of union).
    Naturally, the union sues the school district and state. Unless NJ starts doing similar things, nothing will save NJ.

    http://www.starbeacon.com/local/local_story_213030553.html
    “The uproar over bus privatization began last month when the Madison school board voted to hire Youngstown-based CBS over the OAPSE Local 238 members in order to save $300,000 per year for five years.”

  157. make money says:

    Bairem[156]

    I agree. If you keep earning 70% -90% of your income you should never have to go into your savings to begin.

    Seriously, if you can’t bring yourself to cut your budget by 10% then you don’t deserve to have any savings to begin with.

  158. John says:

    Barracks new idea $1.000 dollar checks, what does he consider middle class to get them checks?

  159. John says:

    I thought we were all rich on this site, everyone pays 10% of income towards housing and we all worked on wall street and drove fantastic german cars.

    bairen Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
    #148 BC

    If you go burn through all of your savings and go broke over a 3 year period while earning 70 to 90% of your peak income you were never affluent. At best you had a middle class income and moderate savings.
    At worst you had a high income and lived near the edge of your means.

    I think an affluent person can go 3 years without ANY earned income rolling in. To me that’s affluent.

  160. tbw says:

    97 Maxima? They are good cars…

    Hope he is okay.

  161. bairen says:

    #159 make

    That guy’s “affluent” comment really bugged me. Smacks of sense of entitlement and over estimating one’s financial net worth.

  162. AntiTrump says:

    #120 Bystander:

    Seriously, these idiots should peek out of their caves occasionally and see that the real estate market has changed !!

  163. kettle1 says:

    Re Unions:

    I am torn on the issue of unions. I have worked with them on several occasions and have seen substantial waste and “sloth” (people getting yelled at for doing to much work and making someone else look bad). AT the same time, unions have a history of being the counter weight to corporations treating people as nothing more then another industrial asset.
    I imagine that unions have become ba$tardized by politics. But i will not deny their potential positive impact, leaving the question of whether they still support that impact to another day.

  164. John says:

    How much a year do I have to make to be affluent in BC NJ?

  165. ben says:

    People think that the supposedly “wealthy” people can keep the prices from dropping. 99% of these people aren’t wealthy. They have no savings. The only reason they were able to buy the bigger house and Porsche is because they had a bigger line of credit than everyone else.

  166. John says:

    I ball park 250K a year as the min amt to be considered affluent in BC.

    BTW the rich don’t spend money. Ask any 12 year old newspaper boy and he will tell you the best christmas tips are from the working class union crowd and the worst is from the mcmansion crowd.

  167. jamil says:

    kettle 165: I agree that once upon a time when unions were important and useful. Anyway, that was decades ago. Now we are at the other extreme (think of Detroit, airlines and public unions etc).

    Public sector works should operate similarly to private sector: Market-rate compensation in salary/pension/health (I’m ok with better job security aspect). Why tax-payers should pay for the outrageous benefits they can only dream of themselves? Same local services could be achieved with a portion of the cost.

    Imagine the life in NJ with property taxes 75% lower and state income taxes 50% lower.

  168. 3b says:

    #168 John: And yet 70% of all residents in Bergen Co, have incomes of 100K or less.

    Oh and I have not seen a 12 year old paper boy in years;they are extinct.

  169. make money says:

    How much a year do I have to make to be affluent in BC NJ?

    $10M

  170. Stu says:

    Who are we trying to kid here?

    Obama’s $1,000 stimulus check from the oil companies is simply an attempt to lure back the stupid people who really think drilling along our coasts and in Anwar will have any impact on gas prices. A 2007 EIA(U.S. government) report found the best we could do is replace 3% of our foreign oil dependence on coastal oil and it most likely wouldn’t be in place before 2030. Also, the impact on the price of fuel would be measured in pennies.

    McCain/Bush have brilliantly found another lie to convince the stupid people in this country that Obama’s energy policy is unsound, completely ignoring the results of the study. In essence, risking the environment and beach tourism (and improving oil profits) to gain the 2008 election. Lets face it, gas prices are THE most popular watercooler issue and those brilliant liars are at it again.

    Doesn’t it sound nice to be able to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil? Too bad it ain’t possible by drilling off the coasts and in Anwar!

    I say, let the republic get what it duly deserves.

  171. grim says:

    John,

    That depends on your income to affluence conversion efficiency. It all boils down to how effective you are in conveying affluence with a minimum of expenditure.

  172. Stu says:

    Grim 172 in mod too ;)

  173. Stu says:

    “It all boils down to how effective you are in conveying affluence with a minimum of expenditure.”

    You mean like this?

    http://www.sitetruth.com/doc/images/facade.jpg

  174. grim says:

    Stu,

    FYI, “Obama” or “McCain” will put you into mod.

  175. Stu says:

    Gotcha

  176. grim says:

    Stu,

    Spot on.

  177. bairen says:

    #167 John Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
    How much a year do I have to make to be affluent in BC NJ?

    If you are single and live in your mom’s basement, I’d say 32k would put in a Beamer and all the hair gel you could possibly use.

  178. grim says:

    Most IACE-increasing behaviors are based on trading long-term financial health for short-term affluence.

  179. grim says:

    If you are single and live in your mom’s basement, I’d say 32k would put in a Beamer and all the hair gel you could possibly use.

    That deserves a fist-pump.

  180. kettle1 says:

    given how popular roubini is here, i am surprised there isnt more whitney adoration

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/04/news/newsmakers/whitney_oppenheimer.fortune/index.htm

    The credit crisis is far from over, star analyst Meredith Whitney tells Fortune magazine in its upcoming issue.

    Whitney’s idea of “real” is pretty drastic. Whereas most banks are estimating 20% to 25% peak-to-trough declines in housing prices, the Case-Shiller housing futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange portend a much steeper 33% decline, she points out.

    In fact, Whitney thinks the actual declines will be worse – closer to 40% – because of the loss of the securitization market and the paucity of mortgage credit available. And that means more defaults: “The consumer’s ability to refinance his way out of trouble has diminished greatly.”

  181. John says:

    ten million a year is a small club of people how about ten million in net assets (assets minus liabilities)

  182. John says:

    So that is what washed up gold diggers over 40 do for a living.

    kettle1 Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
    given how popular roubini is here, i am surprised there isnt more whitney adoration

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/04/news/newsmakers/whitney_oppenheimer.fortune/index.htm

    The credit crisis is far from over, star analyst Meredith Whitney tells Fortune magazine in its upcoming issue.

    Whitney’s idea of “real” is pretty drastic. Whereas most banks are estimating 20% to 25% peak-to-trough declines in housing prices, the Case-Shiller housing futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange portend a much steeper 33% decline, she points out.

    In fact, Whitney thinks the actual declines will be worse – closer to 40% – because of the loss of the securitization market and the paucity of mortgage credit available. And that means more defaults: “The consumer’s ability to refinance his way out of trouble has diminished greatly.”

  183. tbw says:

    #180: Yeah, World Gym in Paramus is full of hair gell, beamers, and 32k a year salaries…

  184. jamil says:

    173 stu: So you are claiming The One’s energy policy is sound? “Inflate your tires” and release few drops of oil from SPR (which is meant for catastrophic supply disruptions major hurricane, Iran war etc) is the answer?

    Anyway, he changed his position wrt SPR and offshore drilling in the last few weeks so who knows what his eventual plan would be.

  185. grim says:

    Oh bother.

    Ok, I’ll admit it.

    I bought a BMW the other day.

    Where do I pick up the hair gel?

  186. Essex says:

    186….Clarification: Beemers are the motorcycles….Bimmers are the cars. FYI.

  187. Sybarite X says:

    188

    Which?

  188. Essex says:

    180….and I suppose living in your wife’s basement…now that is a whole different story.

  189. Tom says:

    bairen,

    Affluent is just a word, you shouldn’t let it bother you. The definition in the dictionary is “affluent: (af-loo-ent) hedge fund manager’s ex wife.”

  190. Essex says:

    So I was hazing some of the dooshes over at the bimmer board for leasing their cars. A practice that I feel is much the same as renting.

    Oops. Did I say something wrong?

  191. Stu says:

    Jamil (187):

    Neither candidate has a sound energy policy. Quite frankly, I find Bama’s energy policy to be the weakest of all of his policies, but to drill off the Atlantic and risk environmental destruction for no gain except to seek the office of president is deplorable.

    As for the insinuation of flip-flopping, no one has ever performed an about face on his political stands as McCane in my recent memory. Prior to 2004 he was a moderate Republican and really quite the maverick. Even my ultra-liberal wife would have considered voting for him. Then once he lost to W, he became a party buttkisser. Even fact check.org says he voted 95% the time the same way as W. Some maverick!

  192. Sybarite X says:

    SX,

    Which, BF.com?

    And as for leasing, it’s not always a bad idea, depending on your personal circumstances. I’ve never owned a newer car, so it’s been a moot point for me, but I could see some benefits of leasing a car if I only drove it limited amounts and didn’t want to keep it past warranty.

  193. lostinny says:

    188 Grim
    No hair gel for you!

  194. Doyle says:

    #194

    Oh no, cue the leasetrader link posted by Make with the requisite “why would you throw cash at a depreciating asset” comment.

    Just kidding Make!

  195. Sybarite X says:

    193

    I’d be more of a wagon guy myself, if I needed the room, but congrats on the purchase.

  196. Stu says:

    Leasing is for suckers or those who can afford to waste money paying for a rapidly depreciating asset every month.

    If your excuse is that you don’t drive much, then you probably should just rent a car when you need one.

    People don’t realize the ‘total’ cost of owning an automobile, although this recession is beginning to make it clear to those who formerly didn’t really care.

  197. PGC says:

    #193 Grim

    Is that the Realtor side of your personality taking over from the IT side, Dr Jeckel?

    Does it come with a Supra Key holder … :*)

  198. jamil says:

    195 stu: As for flip-flopping: Once the facts change, it is wise to change opinion (e.g. oil goes from $40 to $120).
    This is also how majority of voters changed their opinion. (majority now supports offshore drilling, even in CA).

    US is already doing a lot of offshore drilling in LA and elsewhere. No major environmental problems there, even during Katrina, so the claims of environmental destruction are baseless scare-mongering.

    Still, I don’t understand how releasing few drops of oil from SPR can have dramatic impact on oil prices, and getting 5000x more oil from offshore is not having any impact? (let’s ignore the fact that using SPR for price inconvenience is irresponsible).

  199. Rich In NNJ says:

    New Milford Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 960 S PLYMPTON ST $387,500 6/6/2006

    MLS#: 2822559
    Orig List: $375,000 6/2/2008
    SOLD: $360,000 8/1/2008

  200. BC Bob says:

    “FYI, “Obama” or “McCain” will put you into mod.”

    JB,

    Any chance these get permanently stuck in moderation?

  201. Essex says:

    196…..actually one guy made a good case for it …..Let’s say you want a $50,000 335i right now and you only want to keep it for 3 years. Let’s assume purchase price equals MSRP, there is no sales tax, and let’s also assume that residual is dead-on accurate, for the sake of making calculations easier.

    For a 335i, right now, finance rate is 0.9%, and for leasing, residual is 56% and money factor is .0015.

    If you bought the car and financed it, your monthly payment would be $853. If you leased it, your monthly payment would be $622. Over the life of a lease, that’s $8250 in savings, not counting the time value of money.

    At the end of 3 years after financing, you will have $20,270 balance on the auto loan. Assuming the residual was accurate, the car will be worth $28,000, leaving you with $7730 after selling it. That’s a loss of $520 for buying rather than leasing.

    So, in the end, if you only want to keep the car for 3 years (and don’t plan on putting more than 12000 miles per year on the car) leasing is in fact that better option.

  202. BC Bob says:

    JB,

    OOPS, 204 in mod

  203. PGC says:

    #203 Jamil

    “US is already doing a lot of offshore drilling in LA and elsewhere. No major environmental problems there”

    The first thing that struck me on arriving in New Orleans was the petrochemical smell in the air.

  204. Essex says:

    But since I only buy very low mileage used machines….someone else takes the initial hit and I get a longer warranty….so it works for me.

  205. Rich In NNJ says:

    Old Tappan Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 8 LACHMUND CT $1,287,500 6/16/2005

    MLS#: 2828405
    Orig List: $1,319,000 2/6/2008
    SOLD: $1,100,000 8/1/2008

  206. Sybarite X says:

    The asset is depreciating whether it’s leased or financed, no? It makes sense for people who like to have new cars every 2-3 years, don’t modify them and don’t want the hassle of having to sell the car/trade-in order to get a new one. Those attributes don’t apply to me so I’ve never leased a car, nor do I think I ever plan to, but I can see the “sucker” appeal for people meeting that description.

  207. Sybarite X says:

    207

    Exactly. I’m going to keep counting on people leasing so that I can pick up their dealer-maintained lease-ends and walk away with a flatter depreciation curve.

  208. make money says:

    Doyle,

    Stu beat me to it.

  209. Stu says:

    Jamil:

    The gulf is pretty shallow compared to the depth of the Atlantic and Pacific. The deeper you go, the more likely it is that you will encounter problems. Read the EIA report or choose to ignore it, like your fearless leader.

    I disagree with tapping the SPR. It is the Dem’s attempt at getting their lost votes over the drilling issue.

    I don’t understand why people don’t get it!

    It’s frickin 3% at best. We could hunt for whale oil and do better. But go ahead, take that enormous amount of money that should have gone to fueling an alternative energy program and waste it punching holes in the ocean floor off Bradley beach!

  210. Rich In NNJ says:

    JB,

    My post around 204 is in mod as well.

  211. jamil says:

    pgc: I doubt the smell came from offshore.

    Anyway, even if it came from local refinery (Valero?), the refinery doesn’t care if the oil comes from Venezuela or offshore. In fact, the smell of oil was most likely Venezuelan oil.

    I’d rather get the oil from the US than from America-hating dictator.

  212. make money says:

    Essex, Subarite,

    You guys a right I’m probably a sucker. What do I know I’m retired.

  213. kettle1 says:

    jamil, stu here is another tidbit for you:

    America’s Offshore Continental Shelf (OCS) has 18 billion barrels of off-limits oil, according to the USGS

    the US uses about 7.5 billion barrels/year of oil.

    but average recovery is 15-25% and could take 10 years to bring full online.

    As has been pointed out numerous times. Offshore drilling and anwar are nothing but distractions

  214. Rich In NNJ says:

    Fort Lee FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 1075 EDGEWOOD LN $930,000 10/4/2004

    MLS#: 2833229 (REO)
    Orig List: $1,390,000 11/30/2005
    Last List: $849,800 8/3/2008

  215. Essex says:

    I guess this is ‘affluent’ with a capital A

    http://www.brownharrisstevens.com/detail.aspx?id=910720

  216. Stu says:

    “I’d rather get the oil from the US than from America-hating dictator.”

    If it was easy to get oil from the US, trust me, we would be doing it already!

    Why is this such a hard concept to understand!

    Do you realize what the cost of the IRAQ war is? Would we be fighting it if we had cheap oil available here? I don’t like to call people names, but the ignorance of the fact that there are different amounts of natural resources in different parts of our planet is mind boggling.

    Maybe when we are drilling for oil of Bradley Beach, we can look for diamonds and beluga caviar as well!

  217. Rich In NNJ says:

    Harrington Park FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 171 BLANCHE AVE $755,000 6/28/2006

    MLS#: 2833263
    Orig List: $799,000 1/24/2008
    Last List: $689,000 8/3/2008

  218. kettle1 says:

    jamil

    <i.In fact, the smell of oil was most likely Venezuelan oil.

    well you just cleared up any question of your knowledge of oil refineries! only venezualian oil is stinky? do you live in NJ? ever driven by the Tesco refinery? refining oil is a dirty nasty business where ever you do it.

  219. Stu says:

    Hey Rich,

    If my home shows up on that list of comp killers, I’m gonna be upset.

  220. Sybarite X says:

    make,

    I wasn’t calling anyone a sucker; I was actually pointing out that a lease arrangement may make sense for some people. I’m not at your financial level, so I’m stuck with buying other people’s cars.

  221. skep-tic says:

    #167

    “How much a year do I have to make to be affluent in BC NJ?”

    I say minimum $400,000

  222. jamil says:

    212: So your answer is massive government program in alternative energy? Most alternative energy projects have nothing to do with replacing oil in transportation. Besides, it is another government program where fraud is rampant. Anyway, we are already handing out billions here and there for “alternative energy research” and I don’t have anything against it. Still, if there were a viable approach, private money should be pouring in.

    You keep repeating that 3%. We are handing out trillions to hostile dictators in exchange of oil. We are the only country that is refusing to drill oil. Let’s look how Europe is doing (isn’t that the official policy to follow the lead of Europe?). Norway and the UK are drilling offshore as much as they can and North Sea is even more challenging environment for oil drilling.

    We can have oil prices back (for example) to 2006 or 2004 levels easily. This helps national security as foreign dictators gets less money from us and we are not so dependent on their deliveries anymore.

  223. NJLifer says:

    That’s right Jamil. I only like getting my oil from dictators that are US friendly, like the Saudis.

  224. kettle1 says:

    jamil, where did all the US oil go?

    http://tinyurl.com/6r5rz7

  225. Stu says:

    Sybarite X:

    Even buying new is not always that bad of a deal if you buy something cheap and reliable. Like a 95 Civic hatchback perhaps? 13 years and not a single repair outside of standard type stuff. Booyah! People still offer me $2K for it regularly.

  226. scribe says:

    From THNT.com

    Another retailer:

    Boscov’s declares bankruptcy; Monmouth Mall store to close

    STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS

    READING, PA. — The troubled department store chain Boscov’s is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

    The Reading, Pa.-based chain also will close 10 stores. It otherwise will continue to operate without interruption during the reorganization.

    The retailer, America’s largest family-owned independent department store, says filing for Chapter 11 protection gives it the tools and time to strengthen its balance sheet.

    Boscov’s has stores in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and Virginia. It is closing five stores in Pennsylvania, three stores in Maryland, one in Virginia and one in New Jersey. In New Jersey, Boscov’s will close the store located in the Monmouth Mall, Eatontown.

    The company recently acknowledged that some suppliers have stopped shipping merchandise to the company. Boscov’s blamed credit issues.

  227. lostinny says:

    221 Stu
    Maybe when we are drilling for oil of Bradley Beach, we can look for diamonds and beluga caviar as well!

    Yeah! *looks for sifting equipment on ebay as diamonds dazzle in my eyes*

  228. Sybarite X says:

    Stu, true, but imagine if you’d bought a Pre-owned 93 Civic hatch in 95; the steepest depreciation would have already happened…

  229. Stu says:

    Jamil,

    You are living in a dream world! A non-partisan study shows that oil isn’t there. Drilling for something that doesn’t exist does not sound like sound fiscal policy to me. But then again, we invaded Iraq for something that wasn’t their as well. WMDs!

  230. JBJB says:

    “Leasing is for suckers”

    This is complete nonsense. Like any financial tool, leasing can be very beneficial for those who use it wisely. As mentioend here, if you don’t drive much, dont’ want to hassle w/ maintanence and repair, want to drive a new car every 3-4 years, and don’t mind having a payment then leasing is great. Financing/buying a newer car (espcially a high end Euro mobile – Audi, BMW, Volvo, etc) is probabaly the worst thing you can do. You get all the depreciation up front and then the outrageous maintanence and repair when the warranty expires.

  231. Stu says:

    “Stu, true, but imagine if you’d bought a Pre-owned 93 Civic hatch in 95; the steepest depreciation would have already happened…”

    Don’t say that!

  232. jamil says:

    223 kettle: “well you just cleared up any question of your knowledge of oil refineries! only venezualian oil is stinky?”

    As you should know, my point was that “offshore drilling” is not the problem (in case of smell in NO). The problem is refinery which gets oil from somewhere (e.g US offshore or Venezuela).

    (Btw, I think Venezuelan crude oil is different and may smell differently – it can only be processed in some US and SA refineries – Chavez is trying to build refineries for their oil elsewhere).

  233. Stu says:

    their = there and I probably shouldn’t have used sound twice within three words of itself ;)

  234. Rich In NNJ says:

    Ridgewood FUTURE Comp Killer!

    SOLD: 110 S MAPLE AVE $829,000 1/5/2006

    MLS#: 2827570
    Orig List: $1,100,000 9/18/2007
    Last List: $715,000 8/3/2008

  235. make money says:

    http://www.leasetrader.com/2008_Mercedes_E350_Sedan_137924.xhtml

    I can’t see a more affordable way to drive a luxury car. $377 per month for a 60K car.

  236. kettle1 says:

    Jamil,

    You realizes the US does drill for oil and the majority of the US is open to drilling, the oil companies just choose not to as the oil deposits are small and spread out, i.e not very economical.

    The north sea is the UK’s version of Texas. Texas has done come and gone my friend.

    Any alternative energy source use don a large scale will require retooling of the US infrastructure to one degree or another. Private money is not going to pay for new infrastructure while the government is actively backing the old structure. besides where is all this private money at? i think all the IB’s lost it all in CDO’s and other financial wizardry, hence our current mess.

    that 3% will not be in the market for 10 years even if start drilling today. in 10 years that 3% is irrelevent!

  237. lostinny says:

    Yay I made bi’s list!!!
    *jumps up and down trying not to knock myself out*

  238. make money says:

    P.S: to chanlgenge IT professionals on this board: if you cannot create this table in 1 minute without using special software, you are not qualified to work at front office on the street.

    Bi,

    Feel like sharing any investment advice for free.

  239. Essex says:

    235…..except when you buy that one year old car with low miles and the extended 100k warranty, then I think you score big time.

  240. Rich In NNJ says:

    Stu (224),

    Not to worry, it would probably end up in moderation.

  241. lostinny says:

    I think leasing is a great idea for some. For me, it doesn’t make sense because I like to pay as few bills as possible. The idea of having to pay a car note forever makes me feel burdened. I have a very reliable car that I paid off a year early. I can now use that money for savings. Savings for important things makes me happy.

  242. Stu says:

    All taxis in India run must run on propane. The government there subsidized the conversion of drivers cabs (actually motor rickshaws) from gas to propane. This decision was mostly made to help reduce air pollution.

    Doesn’t it just make you damn proud when you see third world emerging markets trying harder an winning the economic and environmental battles of the 21st century?

  243. jamil says:

    stu: If there isn’t oil, oil companies would not want to be drilling there. There is plenty of oil, and a lot of oil to be discovered. Because of restrictions, there hasn’t been much exploration activities in the last 20 years.

    Some fields (especially in CA) can be opened in a few years.

    I’m too tired to start a debate about WMD. I can just say that all foreign intelligence services (including hostile germans, russians) agreed with the conclusions, as did then VP Gore and every relevant democrat (having seen the same evidence as W).

  244. Rich In NNJ says:

    Apparently spelling and communication skills aren’t required on “the street”

  245. Ohhh! I made The List too! I am now internet famous!

    P.S: to chanlgenge IT professionals on this board: if you cannot create this table in 1 minute without using special software, you are not qualified to work at front office on the street.

    Yeah, umm. You do know that IT is back office, right?

  246. lostinny says:

    I especially love the fact that Louisiana doesn’t get the money earned from drilling off NOLA’s shores. Yup, makes a lot of sense.

  247. jamil says:

    249 stu: About India. Its decision to subsidy oil is a major reason for the high oil consumption and prices so that’s really bad example.

  248. JBJB says:

    [246] Agreed, but many want to get a new car every 3-4 years. I would agree that this is the best way to get a car that you plan on keeping for a while.

    Acutally, we do both. We own a 2005 Accord that I drive to work. I lease a Volvo wagon for the wife to drive to the train station and tote around the baby and dogs on the weekends.

  249. bi says:

    250#, fortunately, it is true. i know a lot of folks whose english is worse than mine making tons of money.

  250. Clotpoll says:

    bi (62)-

    That WMD speech that Powell made at the UN pretty much deep-sixed any future political aspirations he might have.

  251. John says:

    Did your kid graduate college or something? grim Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 2:24 pm
    Oh bother.

    Ok, I’ll admit it.

    I bought a BMW the other day.

    Where do I pick up the hair gel?

  252. Stu says:

    “stu: If there isn’t oil, oil companies would not want to be drilling there.”

    I’m sure they are banking on subsidies. And to say that offshore drilling is a non-environmental issue is BS. Ever swim on the Louisiana Gulf. Nothing like needing to rub the tar off your soles with turpentine prior to going home.

  253. skep-tic says:

    I think the best way to minimize the financial hit associated with a car is simply to drive it a long time. a reliable used car is best, but the problem is that the most reliable brands (honda/acura, toyota/lexus) don’t depreciate that much so the deals aren’t always there used. I can to the conclusion that if you want one of these japanese brands, you are better off buying new and just driving it for 8+ years. sometimes you can luck out with a good used american or euro car that has depreciated a lot but still runs well. but obviously, this is taking a chance on the reliability front. if you want a new car every two or three years I agree there is not much difference between leasing and buying

  254. make money says:

    Savings for important things makes me happy.

    Lost,

    I agree. Thank you for your insight. Driving worlds best cars and switching them every year without having to brake th ebank makes me happy.

    We are both happy.How many people can say that?

  255. Doyle says:

    #241

    Make, you only get 12k miles over 18 months on that deal.

    Do you use leasetrader yourself? Just curious.

  256. Stu says:

    Agreed Clott.

    In a relatively recent interview, he cited lying for Bush as the biggest and most painful mistake of his life. His wife is a liberal anyhow.

  257. make money says:

    Clot,

    Every kid who’s studying political science needs to do a complete study of the speach. That was BS 101 to perfection.

  258. Mctc says:

    How come we almost never see Comp killers for Chatham Twp? I have looked on and off for a while and nothing good ever lasts for more that 3 weeks and most go for 95% or more of asking. Are they immune or just lagging?

  259. bi says:

    251#,
    seriously, there are two types of IT on the street: front office and back office. back office guys deal with database, clearing and etc. front office IT guys are working directly with people who make/lose money for the firm.

    >Yeah, umm. You do know that IT is back office, right?

  260. jamil says:

    This is great site: It lists all public salaries and other government payments in NY:

    http://www.seethroughny.net/

    I think every state and city should have easy to use website for government (and school district) spending and public salaries.

  261. Nom Deplume says:

    Leasing works well for me, but I would never buy another car off a lease.

    I own a corolla that I got at an amazing rate (before oil spiked to $140) for a 3 yr lease. It is just for commuting so mileage should not be an issue. Depending on what gas does, it could be worth more than the buy-out price when the lease ends, and if so, I may keep it or flip it.

    The Audi (that so many of you heard me b1tch about) is for general use, and hauling around the lil nom. I bought that off lease and it sucks. While it could be the car or the fact it was a leased car, once burned, twice shy, so no more off-lease cars or Audis for moi.

  262. lostinny says:

    260 Make
    Hey if that’s what you’re able to do and you want to do it, more power to you. I can’t do that, but I’m happy with what I have. That’s a good question. How many people can say they’re happy?
    Maybe its the SI connection that makes us happy. :)

  263. #265 – bi – Seriously, as someone who does exactly what you just described (RMDS/MD admin) I’m back office.
    Front office are sales/marketing as they have direct contact w/ customers.

  264. Stu says:

    Same thing exists in NJ. I just don’t remember the link. You should see what most most Fire/Police chiefs make. It would turn your stomach.

    When the Town Manager of Montclair makes as much money as a federal senator or congressman, something is terribly wrong!

  265. make money says:

    Lost,

    I live in Manhattan. Gramercy Park.

  266. skep-tic says:

    also, I think taking the hit on depreciation in exchange for the (expected) increased reliability of a new car is not always such an unfair trade. an unreliable car is a much bigger problem than just the repair bill. it is also all of the lost time (which many people really cannot afford, esp when the car breaks down at inopportune moments) plus safety hazard (e.g., breaking down on the highway)

  267. Nom Deplume says:

    Mrs. Deplume just sent me an updated MLS with sales data with a real jawdropper. Call this the ANTI-comp killer. Or the Comp LifeSaver, if you prefer.

    3 months ago, we bid on a somewhat dated split in Summit. House was ehhh, but the lot was decent and it was in a good hood on a cul de sac. I think we bid 10K over. Heard that we weren’t even close.

    I learned today that this POS split sold for (and I am not making this up) $121,000 OVER the asking price. Yes folks, six figures over the asking price. More than Patient’s bonus last year.

    Just one more reason I am not buying in Summit.

  268. skep-tic says:

    #267

    “so no more off-lease cars or Audis for moi.”

    those off-lease audis often look cheap and are very tempting (I think they are the nicest looking German cars), but stories like yours are what keep me away

    electrical problems?

  269. lostinny says:

    266 Jamil
    That’s a great site. Too bad NYC employees aren’t in that database.

  270. John says:

    http://www.carsdirect.com/used_cars/vehicle_detail/ul86551856/BMW/M6

    I rather have this used private party 2008 M6 with 850 miles via a gift transfer. It is a recession, gotta get the goods off the broke folk.

  271. lostinny says:

    make
    Didn’t you say you lived in SI- or do you just own rentals here?

  272. PGC says:

    #239 Bi

    If that is the standard your company uses to hire its IT staff, I would move.

  273. make money says:

    Make, you only get 12k miles over 18 months on that deal.

    Do you use leasetrader yourself? Just curious.

    I’m Albanian, so miles can go up and down ala RE.

    No. I tend to see Ray when I need a car. I just love to deverginize a new car. I punch it at every light and trully get to enjoy it. It’s like I a rental car with warranty.

    I don’t know anyone who really enjoys the trill of driving their car that’s paid for in cash. You have to feel guilty shortening it’s life.

  274. Mike NJ says:

    Make,

    That guy is looking for $3500 down in addition to the monthly nut for that Mercedes. Why, why, why would you ever put anything down on a lease and then expect to get it back when you want to get out of it? If you total a leased car your insurance company will pay off the leasing company and guess what, you will be out your entire nut of down payment and taxes. Never put anything down on a lease!

  275. make money says:

    make
    Didn’t you say you lived in SI- or do you just own rentals here?

    a few small rentals ranging from great kills to St. george.

  276. Stu says:

    Audi? Electrical Problems?

    Growing up, my dad had one of those Audi’s where the battery was under the back seat. This was during the era in which a few Audi’s supposedly wouldn’t stop when the brake pedals were pressed. My dad’s Audi would frequently unlock its own doors. Another thing it did as it got older was the horn would sound whenever a hard left turn was made. I made a note to myself to never consider purchasing an Audi.

    Additionally, I had an axle snap on a 3 year-old Camry when backing out of a parking spot once. There were parts of the transmission all over the lot with that one.

  277. skep-tic says:

    speaking of cars, how are volvos in terms of reliability?

  278. make money says:

    That guy is looking for $3500 down in addition to the monthly nut for that Mercedes. Why, why, why would you ever put anything down on a lease and then expect to get it back when you want to get out of it? If you total a leased car your insurance company will pay off the leasing company and guess what, you will be out your entire nut of down payment and taxes. Never put anything down on a lease!

    Yes sir. You’re exactly right. Make him a lowball offer and watch him brake.

  279. Stu says:

    Volvo’s used to be built like tanks, but if something did break, it was a fortune to fix. I don’t know how well the new ones hold up, but they’re claims on safety are mostly just marketing ploys these days.

  280. Sybarite X says:

    FYI

    Volvo today = Ford

  281. Nom Deplume says:

    [274] skep

    All manner of problems. Most of them are endemic with Audis, and had I did my internet research, I would possibly have found most of them. Lot of planned obsolescene IMHO.

    In general, what I have learned about euro cars is that they should be leased and given back to sell to suckers (as I was once).

  282. Sybarite X says:

    And while we’re at it, for future reference:

    Saab = General Motors
    Mini = BMW
    Lexus = Toyota
    Acura = Honda
    Infiniti = Nissan
    Scion = Toyota

    Mazda shares many platforms with Ford

    Saturn Asta = European Opel; engineered and made in Europe

    Audi, VW, (SKODA and SEAT, in EU)are part of the same company.

    I’m always surprised at how many people are unaware of one or more of the above.

  283. Sybarite X says:

    288

    Oops, Saturn Astra not Asta

  284. Clotpoll says:

    JBJB (235)-

    Thanks for pointing out the obvious benefit of leasing for some of us. I’ve leased for years & have come out way ahead for having done it.

  285. Clotpoll says:

    #290 will be the last time I ever discuss cars here. I hate talking about cars.

  286. #288 – Don’t forget that the VW group also owns Bentley & Lamborghini; and is being acquired by Porsche.

  287. Sybarite X says:

    tosh,

    Thought about mentioning that, but didn’t think it’d be as useful info. That last tidbit is an interesting development which I am interested in seeing pan out.

  288. #293 – Hopefully we’ll see less expensive Bosters/et al. I doubt it though. The VW Group may be becoming too big for it’s own good.

  289. Sybarite X says:

    I remember reading the primary motivation for the acquisition/merger was to allow Porsche a loophole in order to meet the euro version of CAFE requirements.

  290. bairen says:

    I just checked Realtor.com and saw a pos cape that looks like it wasn’t updated since Eisenhower was in charge for 359k.

    The barbarians are nearing the gates of Brigadoon.

  291. John says:

    Mercedes, Porshe, BMW, volkswagon, Toyota, Honda and Fiat = WWII Bad People.

    GM. Chrysler and Ford without there contributions in WWII we all be wearing lederhosen and eating spetzler and meatballs with chop sticks. Those american made tanks spanked the mercedes tanks in WWII.

  292. Sybarite X says:

    John,

    Agreed. What happened in the intervening years?

  293. bairen says:

    john,

    What about hyundais?

  294. skep-tic says:

    #285

    re: volvo

    “but they’re claims on safety are mostly just marketing ploys these days.”

    I can’t quite decide on this point. I agree that many car companies have upped the bar in terms of safety so that volvos aren’t as distinguished as they once were. however, a friend of mine who was once an engineer for Ford (now works for Nissan) told me that Volvo runs safety tests that go way beyond what most other car companies do. He said most companies engineer their safety systems toward the two major crash tests ratings so that they get high scores, but volvo actually engineers for a lot more beyond these (i.e., they are really focused on safety, not just the appearance thereof). He said second to volvo in this category is Mercedes

  295. kettle1 says:

    john ,

    the tiger tanks tore up the shermans. the sherman tanks had a hard time penetrating the armor on the tiger tanks. it wasnt uncommon for it to take multiple hits for a sherman to kill a tiger tank.
    the main strength of the sherman was simply its large numbers, easier to kill one , but there were lot of them.

    try again

  296. Sybarite X says:

    300

    Is this still true today under Ford management?

  297. JBJB says:

    “Never put anything down on a lease!”

    Words to live by. Another reason why leasing is great. You walk in and make the 1st month payment and walk out.

  298. make money says:

    john,

    What about hyundais?

    yeah what about Yugos. Brand new $4K!

  299. JBJB says:

    [285]

    On Volvo safety. They defintely feel safer comapared to the other cars we tested. The XC 70 wagon was much better than the comparables(Outback, Audi, Volkswagon, etc). But there is no doubt that Volvo has taken saftey as their key differentiating marketing claim.

  300. bairen says:

    make,

    I got a Sante Fe. not as nice as a Murano, but it’s only 60% of the price. I don’t think my kids’ car seats would have fit in a Rogue. I’ve been in a 2003 or so X3, felt tinny. Dont know how the newer ones are. I thought the Saturn Vue didn’t have much power.

    Now i’m done with car comments, unless I’m writing a John like story.

  301. Rich In NNJ says:

    From The Record

    Want a cut-rate Shore condo?


    The Wildwoods have about 1,000 condos for sale, many of them no more than a few years old. At the current sales pace, it would take from 20 months (North Wildwood) to 27 months (Wildwood) to sell all the housing inventory now on the market, according to the Otteau Valuation Group of East Brunswick. That compares with a statewide average of 10.8 months’ worth of housing inventory.


    That’s created opportunities for bargain hunters; many sellers have cut prices by 20 percent or more to attract buyers.

  302. Essex says:

    Wildwoods are gross……Yuck.

    Guido Beach anyone?

  303. Essex says:

    305…wife has the XC-70…safest car on the road. Amazing in all weather.

  304. John says:

    The CX-70 is just a Ford Taurus Station Wagon dressed up for a night on the town.

  305. Clotpoll says:

    SX (310)-

    The safest car is the car that is full of guns.

  306. chicagofinance says:

    make money Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 1:35 pm
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=812261135&play=1
    Roubini laying the smack down on CNBC. I can’t believe they still invite him on these shows.

    albani: Literally one of the best classic episodes of the Roubinator. He came out swinging like Mike Tyson in 1986. Within the first two minutes the Squawk Box guys were utterly speechless. He dump the “recession duck” on them. Then, after Roubs spits fire everywhere, the stupid CNBC joker says “…so when are the write-ups…”……..this was the funniest thing I’ve seen in awhile.

    EN FUEGO

  307. PGC says:

    Jamil,

    If there was no drilling in the Gulf, the refinery’s would not be there.

  308. Clotpoll says:

    PGC (315)-

    I don’t think anyone has mentioned that Jamil sucks today.

  309. skep-tic says:

    #302

    my friend worked at Ford up until 2 yrs ago, so since they owned Volvo then, I assumed the same was true

  310. bi says:

    WOW. he compared himself to Paris in a Washington Post article of Feb. 24, 2005:

    “I’ve already had an hour and a half. I mean, I’m so overexposed, I’m making Paris Hilton look like a recluse.”

  311. PGC says:

    #251 # toshiro_mifune

    Depends on how big a trader you are. Some desks get their own staff.

  312. jamil says:

    pgc: US needs oil refineries whether we do offshore drilling or not. They must be in coastal areas, ideally at least some of them close to Venezuela.

  313. Stash says:

    #266 – Here is the website for NJ. Has a variety of great information.

  314. HEHEHE says:

    Jamil,

    Why Venezuela? You and Pat Roberts going to take Chavez out?

  315. HEHEHE says:

    Robertson, sorry

  316. Nom Deplume says:

    [73] Clot,

    Problem is, the first joker that tries to scale it and slices themselves open will sue for more than they would ever get from a burglary.

    Remember home defenders: If you shoot, drag the body in the house. But if the entry wound is in the back, turn over and repeat first.

  317. grim says:

    Booo downtime!

  318. jamil says:

    PGC 315 “If there was no drilling in the Gulf, the refinery’s would not be there.”

    HEHEHE 323: “Why Venezuela?”

    I guess this is news to you but Venezuela is one the biggest sources of oil in the US. The Venezuelan crude oil can only be processed in a few refineries in the world (New Orleans Valero is one of them).

    This has nothing to do with offshore drilling. Distance (and transportation costs) to Venezuela are important, though.
    Transporting it to (say) New Jersey would be much more expensive (anyway, NJ refineries are unable to process Venezuelan crude oil).

    The oil we are using must be processed in some refinery in the US, as it is being processed to state-sanctioned boutique gasoline.

  319. lostinny says:

    What happened?

  320. Nom Deplume says:

    [327] jamil

    Also, the Hovensa refinery on St. Croix refines Venezuelan crude, and is the largest refinery in the hemisphere.

    It is my understanding that outside of the U.S., there are few, if any, refineries that can refine the malodorous sludge of the Orinoco.

  321. #319 – PGC – Even if, say FX or FICC has it’s own support desk. That support desk is still back-office. They do not deal with the clients.

  322. jamil says:

    329: Yep. Venezuelans are forced to sell their crude oil to the US because there are no refineries outside of the US or Venezuela. I think Chavez tried to get Iran or China to build a refinery for their crude, but it would be massive investment and take years.

    Anyway, as I said, New Orleans has a refinery because it is close to Venezuela (not because of offshore). Also, we need refineries in the US regardless of the origin of oil.

    back to original issue: There has not been any meaningful leaks from offshore in the last decades in Gulf of Mexico. It is safe and it will bring the price of oil down and it keeps hundreds of billions in the US (instead of sending the money to hostile dictators abroad). Sounds like a pretty good deal.

  323. grim says:

    What happened?

    Kernel panic

  324. Rich In NNJ says:

    Hey, that’s a good name for Kettle1.

  325. stu says:

    Kernel panic?

    Is that like General Malaise?

  326. stu says:

    Don’t believe the hype Jamil

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22025589/

  327. NJ kiwi says:

    OK, it has been a long day, where’s John’s second part to his trilogy? Not being from here, I had to google a few things, wikipedia helped with Hell’s kitchen but I was not brave enough to google “big haired hose monster” on my work lap top. I am going to have to watch Generation Kill again to get some action if John is not going to post part II.

  328. sas says:

    “Milwaukee man faces foreclosure because he didn’t pay parking fine”
    http://tinyurl.com/5dx8vy

  329. jamil says:

    stu: I said meaningful leaks (and I meant in the US). There has been countless studies to prove this. Tanker accidents are much more dangerous. It is much safer to do offshore drilling. One major tanker accident causes a lot of damage (remember Valdez?)

  330. stu says:

    Here ya go Jamil: This one is straight from your hero W’s pen:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/reports/katrina-lessons-learned/chapter1.html

    Here is what you wrote…”US is already doing a lot of offshore drilling in LA and elsewhere. No major environmental problems there, even during Katrina, so the claims of environmental destruction are baseless scare-mongering.”

    Here is what W wrote:

    “Much more than any other hurricane, Katrina’s wrath went far beyond wind and water damage. In fact, Hurricane Katrina caused at least ten oil spills, releasing the same quantity of oil as some of the worst oil spills in U.S. history. Louisiana reported at least six major spills of over 100,000 gallons and four medium spills of over 10,000 gallons. All told, more than 7.4 million gallons poured into the Gulf Coast region’s waterways, over two thirds of the amount that spilled out during America’s worst oil disaster, the rupturing of the Exxon Valdez tanker off the Alaskan coast in 1989.”

    If there was a way for me to put you on ‘ignore’, I would have done it a long time ago. Instead, we all have to suffer through your repeated Republican lies. Any other lies you would like to present to us?

    And the gall you have to you use the term fear-mongering. It is you and your lies that are creating the unsubstantiated fears you ignoramus.

  331. jamil says:

    stu: During Katrina, no leaks. It was pretty good test. Anyway, offshore drilling in the US is much safer (in addition to other benefits).

  332. stu says:

    Do you know what is the worst part about Republican’s? They continuously ignore the facts!

  333. stu says:

    My god man you are dense!

  334. jamil says:

    stu: Didn’t you say everything that comes from WH is bogus? Now it isn’t?

  335. stu says:

    Well usually I would agree about most of W’s facts as propagandist BS. So in this case, he most likely underestimated the damage. But fear not, the black man will never take office!

  336. PeaceNow says:

    Overheard on the beach today….

    Wife (clutching folder of listings from C21): What do you think of these two?

    Husband: I think you have to decide whether you want an Ocean Grove address or an Asbury Park address.

    Wife (rolling her eyes behind her sunglasses): Ocean Grove, of course, but we might not be able to afford it.
    ————-
    I was in Asbury yesterday, having brunch on Cookman. Looked like a ghost town. In fact, apart from a group of summer-job high-schoolers passing out flyers for a new condo project, my friends and I (and our waitress) were the only people on the street.

  337. stu says:

    Comstock Homebuilder will declare bankruptcy tomorrow. I heard they can’t pay their loans anymore.

  338. jamil says:

    345 stu: If the color of skin is so important to you, you are clearly a racist. I couldn’t care less what color of skin The One has. I care that he is the most liberal and leftist candidate in history without track record of any kind, always changing policy positions based on polls and personal embarrassing judgment wrt associates of 20 years ranging from domestic terrorists to racist hate-mongers.

    As for offshore. After Santa Barbaba leak in 1969, there hasn’t been a major leak from offshore. The much bigger danger is tanker transportation (which is happening since we refuse to drill in the US).

  339. jamil says:

    luckily the refusal to drill oil is sinking The One (even if he panicked and flip-flopped on it few days ago after his poll numbers plunged). I suppose this is the change we can all believe in.

  340. sas says:

    hey to brake it to you blokes.
    you are engaged in the classic false left/right paradigm.

    Not a difference btw a Democrat & Republican.

    They are both owned by the same corporate interersts. Mainly the Fortune 100. So, it doesn’t matter who wins, because they companies own both.

    learn that now.

    SAS

  341. Clotpoll says:

    Today’s story of the advent of the endtimes:

    I have an acquaintance who works for Wachovia mortgage (talk about the end of days!). Anyway, being no dummy, he realized a long time ago that he was on borrowed time, vis a vis his job. So, he started looking for a new position weeks ago, so that when the time came, he would be the doer, not the do-ee.

    Anyway, good news came today, in the form of a job from another lender. However, it’s a very unusual job. In bullets:

    – 65K/year base, can work from home 100% of the time.

    – Must comb through the bank’s portfolio mortgages and must complete four files a day.

    – The actual job? Look for signs of fraud in any of the originations, pumped-up appraisals, etc. Notify the bank if there’s anything egregious and notify if he thinks enough bad stuff exists to push the loan into delinquency or default.

    – $100 bonus for every file completed past the 4-per-day quota.

    He will walk into Wachovia tomorrow AM and quit, cold.

  342. Clotpoll says:

    sas (350)-

    The Republican wants to be your dad. The Democrat wants to be your mom.

    No difference between them. They’re all pigs.

  343. Laughing all the way says:

    Let’s say you’re buying a house for 500k-550k. Does anyone else like the idea of putting 200k down? Just to keep your mortgage payments lower?

    Obviously there are scores of reasons to not put down 40% and only put down 20% – invest it, what if you need the cash, etc, etc – but has anyone considered how little ‘pressure’ there will be on you to work forever?

    This is, of course, assuming you’re buying a house you plan on living in for 30 years.

  344. stu says:

    SAS, I knew that already!

    Honestly, neither will do what is right anyhow. They are beholden to the lobbyists anyhow. Can’t I have my fun for one night?

  345. sas says:

    I’ll let these boards in on a little something. (some people know this story)

    I was hired some time ago by a company to basically transfer (aka steal) IP from a Korean firm to be brought over to a US firm. We did. This company now is one of the largest telecommunications in the nation and the reason why you can use your cellphone in the states.

    To me, the most startling thing I learned while doing this was…

    -it wasn’t that companies goto other countries and steal IP, and make them pay royalties on it
    -it wasn’t that there are still actually monoploies
    -it wasn’t the unethical tactics

    No,
    what startled me the most was when I came to point where I couldn’t figure out.. who worked for the telecommunications companies and who worked for govt intelligence.
    come to find out, they are damn near one in the same. I then come to find out I was on the DOL and didn’t even know it.

    You don’t think I get a pucker factor when I read those NYT articles…I sure do!

    True story & chew on that for awhile.

    SAS

  346. sas says:

    and no..
    I won’t tell you what or how.

    I do want to see another day :)

    SAS

  347. sas says:

    all before 97 :)
    SAS

  348. Laughing all the way says:

    From the frontlines at Circuit City:

    Did my part to stimulate the economy and picked up a 42 inch plasma. That plus the stand was under 1400.

    Guy who sold it said the TV was on sale because nothing is moving and they lowered prices. he said it’s as slow he’s seen it in his 3 years working there.

  349. John says:

    hose monster is a brooklyn term from the 80s for guido girls with big hair, aka like medusla. big hose like hair.

  350. lostinny says:

    No John
    Hosemonsters were girls in the 80’s that liked to s()& di(*

  351. jamil says:

    355 sas: I think I know the US company:)
    They have been caught for unethical practices several times and their attorneys were kicked out of bar.

    Anyway, no Korean involvement was needed to use cellphones here and no US company can be credited for that..Yes, some companies pushed their US-variants (like AMPS or IS95) but better technology was available earlier here and also in Japan and Europe (both analog and digital) and pretty much all technology especially nowadays in the US is based on European stuff (GSM, WCDMA).

    “-it wasn’t that companies goto other countries and steal IP, and make them pay royalties on it”

    I guess by IP you mean patents. If you managed to transfer (bought) full IP rights (including US patents) from Korean company and are licensing stuff to Korean companies (based on that IP) that’s pretty good deal but I doubt this is what you are talking about.
    Or maybe you mean that they stole the Korean ideas, filed similar patents in the US and are now licensing the technology (with IP rights) back to Korean firms.

  352. Laughing all the way says:

    make, do you real live in gramercy park? lived on the fringe when i first moved to NYC about 6 yrs ago (no longer there).

    29th. Damn good times.

    As for the affluent question, i think it’s more than just salary. lifestyle plays a part. if you have 2 luxury/suv car payments, a 4k mortgage and one kid in private school, you can’t be affluent on a combined salary of 200k.

    but if you have one cheap car payment, a 2500 mortgage and 2 kids in public school, i think you can be affluent on 150k if you are frugal.

    we’re completely happy to be frugal.

  353. lostinny says:

    laughing
    I lived on the fringe of Gramercy too. I loved it there. Where were you? I was on East 25th.

  354. reinvestor X says:

    BCbob posted this link today from Mike Morgan’s blog. I’ve excerpted a few comments from this blog. This guy is a raving lunatic and is well the hell over the top.

    It’s clear he’s fear mongering because he wants to rouse up a few clients for his financial planning business. Come on now, you guys will say that realtors and mortgage lenders hyped the real estate market but here we have someone hyping depression by making wild claims that people are pawning items for food. Give me a damn break.

    This guy is a charlatan of the worst kind. He just happens to be a bear and he’s full of shlt.

    http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/

    Depression – Totally unavoidable. Bank on it. Well . . . you won’t be able to bank on it, but you can bet on it. We are not only headed for a Depression, but a violent Depression that will be far worse than 1929. Some experts believe the United States will fall into the chaos, bedlam and anarchy that tore apart Yugoslovia. I am not going that far, but I know our morals and ethics are not the same as they were in 1929. Moreover, we are a far more violent society and totally dependent upon a well oiled system for delivery of food and basic services….

    Pawning for Potatoes – I have a few clients and readers are in the pawn shop and/or jewelry business. There emails are great – Behind Enemy Lines – information. Let me share a few with you, because people are now selling what’s left just to put a meal on the table:

    1 – 3/4 kt round diamond ring, vs1, color G, 14kt gold setting with 8 diamonds…..lady needed $200 because her water got shut off

    2 – I had a guy come in with his wife. She was crying because they were selling her engagement ring. It was all they had left. He walked out crying and I wanted to shut the shop down for the day. Its getting gut wrenching.

    3 – The BMW 7 Series people are showing up with goods.

    4 – Today a financial planner with sterling candlesticks. This is crazy.

    5 – This week we had our busiest week in the history of our company. All three locations. My cousin in California has six shops and he has doubled the size of his staff since the first of the year. Where does it end.

    6 – The people coming in lately are not what we saw a year ago. I have to say more than half of my business is white collar and when you consider dollar value it is 80% or more. You have been right on the money Mike.

    7 – July was a record month and a very tough month emotionally. I have been doing this for 30 years. I never seen so many people coming in just to pay for food. What do they do next?

  355. Laughing all the way says:

    east 29th. i thought 28th street was a dump, but 29th was a slice of heaven. i was only single living in NYC for about 8 months before meeting my eventual wife. probably a good thing i met her – i was in CC debt, driving a car i couldn’t really afford, and running up bar tabs. ah, the single life.

    it was a bit of a hike to the 6 train – well, only because when we moved to brooklyn, we were about 40 steps from the subway, which was of course awesome.

  356. lostinny says:

    Yes I remember the hike to the train. But I also remember walking across town home from the club at 4 am. I used to walk everywhere back then. It was great.

  357. Laughing all the way says:

    ReX – If Clot swears by this guy, i’ll give him a chance … but what ‘experts’ are being referred to here?

    We are not only headed for a Depression, but a violent Depression that will be far worse than 1929. Some experts believe the United States will fall into the chaos, bedlam and anarchy that tore apart Yugoslovia.

    I actually laughed out loud when i read this.

  358. reinvestor X says:

    Experts my ass.

    This guy is basically hyping depression to drive clients into his clutches. Bottom line is that we’ll have as many hucksters on the way down as we had on the way up.

    Laughing all the way Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 10:26 pm
    ReX – If Clot swears by this guy, i’ll give him a chance … but what ‘experts’ are being referred to here?

    We are not only headed for a Depression, but a violent Depression that will be far worse than 1929. Some experts believe the United States will fall into the chaos, bedlam and anarchy that tore apart Yugoslovia.

    I actually laughed out loud when i read this.

  359. Clotpoll says:

    Laughing (368)-

    It all sounds like hyperbole…until you read Morgan’s ’06 Barron’s piece (it’s linked on his website).

    Oh…that, and he’s called every phase of the current shit-tsunami well in advance. Being right once or twice is a coincidence; when a guy does it over and over, best to take notice.

  360. Clotpoll says:

    (368)-

    He also called out Ivy Zelman as the lightweight she is.

  361. NJ kiwi says:

    thanks for the explanation John, looking forward to part II

  362. t c m says:

    #311-

    “# John Says:
    August 4th, 2008 at 4:28 pm

    “The CX-70 is just a Ford Taurus Station Wagon dressed up for a night on the town.”

    Not true. I owned both. The Taurus was the biggest piece of cr*p I ever owned in my entire life. It was so unreliable – broke down, left me stranded in the middle of Pennsylvania- always something. after a while, I got nervous just getting into it. got rid of it after 4 years, and didn’t have the heart to sell this piece of poo to anyone – just traded it in, and took whatever they gave me.

    just bought my second volvo. did lots of research, and found it’s a lot safer, according to consumer reports, than the other model cars I was looking at. the downside is that the repairs are expensive. but, i figure, I have my whole family in it, it’s worth it.

    i’ll never ever ever buy a ford – never

  363. njpatient says:

    Nom

    “I learned today that this POS split sold for (and I am not making this up) $121,000 OVER the asking price. Yes folks, six figures over the asking price. More than Patient’s bonus last year.”

    ???

  364. njpatient says:

    Jamil

    “There has not been any meaningful leaks from offshore in the last decades in Gulf of Mexico.”

    This is factually incorrect.

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