From the Record:
House-hunters play waiting game
David DeFabiis of Hackensack has been house-hunting for more than a year.
He’s got a good job, a great credit score, a sizable down payment. He’s been prequalified for a mortgage.
But he’s afraid.
“I’m afraid that a house I buy today will not be worth what I paid down the road,” he said. “I am concerned [about whether] I should play the waiting game some more.”
DeFabiis represents a new breed of house-hunter: the fence-sitter. In a National Association of Realtors survey this spring, 20 percent of Realtors said they have potential buyers waiting it out.
“They’re a very big percentage of home buyers now, people waiting for the market to hit bottom,” said Dianna Ivanov of Terrie O’Connor Realtors in Ramsey. “We have a standard Realtor phrase: ‘You don’t know when the market has hit bottom until prices start rising.’ ”
Denise Cerone of Gentry Realty Associates in Maywood, who has been working with fence-sitter DeFabiis, added, “Everybody’s hoping they get the best buy and don’t overpay. It’s a little hard to tell them differently because prices have come down.”
The fence-sitters are not sitting idly by. They are more like air traffic controllers monitoring the downward progress of a whole slew of properties in which they’re interested, working the Internet and strategizing the most propitious time to make an offer.
Walter M., who asked that his full name not be used, has been house-hunting with his wife for a year. They can spend up to $750,000 (without having to sell their South Bergen condo) and have been searching in Upper Saddle River, Woodcliff Lake, Montvale, Mahwah, Franklin Lakes, Cresskill and Demarest, as well as Wayne and Ringwood.
Walter has a roster of NJMLS listings he tracks regularly. He forwarded a list with his commentary.
Of a $625,000 ranch in Upper Saddle River, he said: “Price just dropped for the third time in one month.”
Of a $799,000 five-bedroom home with a pool in Upper Saddle River, he said: “Listed well over $1 million originally.”
Of a $700,000 three-bedroom ranch in Woodcliff Lake, he said: ‘This would be a good deal at $600,000.”
And a five-bedroom, 3 1/2-bath contemporary colonial listed at $925,000 in Upper Saddle River prompted this comment: “Nice modern house. Originally listed over $1 million. According to the agent, the owners turned down an $850,000 offer not too long ago. By March, they will wish they accepted it.”
Francine O. (who doesn’t want her full name used) is another self-described fence-sitter. She and her husband owned a home in Montvale for 45 years, bought a home in Florida for their retirement, and sold that home in 2005 to move back to Bergen County to be near their family. They have $250,000 in cash from the sale of their Florida home to put into a small single-family home in Bergen County. They don’t want to carry a mortgage. They’ve been looking for a year.
“Prices are down, but they’re not down enough,” Francine said.
…
When these fence-sitters do make a bid, it is often an extreme low-ball. DeFabiis bid on a house in Maywood a little more than a month ago.“It was an estate sale, and the ad said, ‘Bring all offers,’ ” said DeFabiis. “It needed a new kitchen, a new bath. It was certainly not a turnkey house. They were looking for $379,000 and I offered $305,000. They never responded to the offer, and I finally withdrew it.”
…
A year ago, said Walter M., if you indicated you were going to make a low-ball bid, the agent would tell you to go to a more affordable town.Now, he said, “If you’re going to make an offer that’s $150,000 off price, the agent will say, ‘Put it on paper.’ ”
…
Real estate analyst Jeff Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick said prices in North Jersey have dropped 19 percent since the high of 2005 and will likely continue to drop for the next six months or so, by 5 percent to 10 percent more.
first!
From Bloomberg:
ING Gets $13.4 Billion Injection From the Netherlands
ING Groep NV, the biggest Dutch financial-services firm, will get 10 billion euros ($13.4 billion) from the Netherlands after warning Oct. 17 of its first quarterly loss and falling the most in Amsterdam trading since 1991.
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. Legislature plans to work on help for struggling homewners
The New Jersey Legislature plans to consider legislation designed to help struggling homeowners remain in their homes and protect neighborhoods from being blighted by foreclosures.
Gov. Jon Corzine on Thursday urged swift legislative action — where necessary — on proposals to help keep people in their homes, improve the state’s business climate and jump-start the state economy through investment and job creation in clean energy and infrastructure.
“The crisis today is the result of the devastating collapse of an inflated housing market that was fostered and financed through excessive borrowing,” Corzine said. “In New Jersey, homes are being lost to foreclosure at a rate of 50,000 a year — a shocking number.”
Two of the most significant anti-foreclosure proposals have already begun making their way through the state Assembly.
A measure sponsored by Democratic Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman would waive the realty transfer fee for nonprofit groups who work with banks to buy foreclosed homes and help the homeowners remain as they recover financially. Under the program, the foreclosed homeowner is charged a rent they can afford, as they remain in the home with the hope of re-buying the property within seven years.
“An increasing number of foreclosures nationwide continue to rip apart our communities, and New Jersey is no exception,” Watson Coleman said . “We need to remove any obstacle that stands in the way of keeping families in their homes and letting them fulfill that American dream.”
Corzine supports the concept of the bill, and said Thursday he would appropriate $50 million to the neighborhood stabilization effort.
The ineptitude of NJ government knows no bounds
grim (2)-
Shoot me between the eyes…please.
I should just get long & Texas hedged, dog food and cat food.
50,000 foreclosures a year
x $3,000 per foreclosure
————————-
$150,000,000 per year
But only $50,000,000 to spend?
$1,000 to each foreclosure? Does that even cover a single mortgage payment?
Or how about $3,000 to 16,700 of them? Only 1/3rd? What would the criteria be? The districts that need the most votes?
My guess? You would need roughly $25k-$50k to make an appreciable dent, that means the $50m gets squandered on 1000-2000 foreclosures out of that 50,000. 1/25th to 1/50th? Does that even make a difference? Why should this very small group be the recipient of a huge public benefit? Where is my handout?
Or does that money get funneled to special interest groups that pocket a majority of that windfall under the guise of counseling?
How does one qualify to feed at that trough? I’d like to open a counseling company.
grim (7)-
Need this question even be asked?:
“Or how about $3,000 to 16,700 of them? Only 1/3rd? What would the criteria be? The districts that need the most votes?”
I should restructure my whole RE practice as a 501-c3.
Grim (7):
You ought to send your analysis in an editorial letter to the Star Ledger.
Hey, Commissar Jon:
How about a property tax moratorium on houses that have fallen into delinquency or default, where the buyer is making a documented good faith effort to effect a workout?
Are they afraid everyone in NJ would default under this scenario?
So what are the chances that this program includes provisions to pay the State of New Jersey (or more correctly, the taxpayers that funded it) back in full, plus interest, when the home is sold or transferred?
If the Treasury can do it, why can’t we?
Stu (10)-
This blog is a more credible forum than the Star-F*^ker.
They should have somebody on their staff maintain a posting presence here.
Ref #2: There are many examples where government is glad to pay outsiders more than it pays itself for the same service. Federal level much worse than State.
DL (14)-
Whaddya expect from a state that’s the home to AT&T, the guys who wrote the book on cutting fat, muscle and bone…then hiring people back as higher-paid “independent contractors”?
If the Treasury can do it, why can’t we?
Why not equity sharing too?
“Circuit City Stores Inc. is considering a plan to close at least 150 stores and cut thousands of jobs, as an alternative to filing for bankruptcy-court protection, said people familiar with the company.”
“Earlier this month, the nation’s No. 2 electronics retailer by sales hired Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP — the law firm that oversaw the Chapter 11 reorganization of Kmart — as its bankruptcy counsel, according to several people familiar with the matter.”
“If Circuit City were to file for bankruptcy, it would be the largest retailer to enter bankruptcy protection in several years. The 59-year-old company employs about 45,000 people. Last year, it posted sales of $11.74 billion.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122445974629148617.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
BC,
No wonder Circuit City is going bankrupt, Frank said everybody was at Best Buy this weekend buying computers and LCD TV’s.
he [18],
I guess they were also in line at JPM, buying stocks.
“Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain said he expects “thousands” of job losses from the bank’s $50 billion takeover by Bank of America Corp.”
“Most of the cuts will fall in information technology, operations and finance, Thain, 53, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Dubai today. Jobs won’t be eliminated in the fixed income and commodities divisions, he said.”
“The government plan won’t avert a recession, Thain added. “Over the next 12 months we are still going to be in a global recession,” he said. “I don’t think the economies of the world will recover quickly. Clearly the U.S. economy is contracting significantly. The question for me is how deep and how long the recession will be.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alJ42HVGz7Ik&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=axsUMrc.liiE&refer=home
“Turmoil may make American savers, worsening “nasty” recession”
“The US may be on its way to becoming a nation of savers, whether Americans like it or not.”
“Consumers are starting to realize that they’ve been living in a fantasy world…”
“In the long run, higher savings would be good news for the U.S. economy, because the extra money would help put household finances on a sounder footing and lessen U.S. dependence on investment by China and other foriegn countries to finance economic growth.”
“In the shorter run, though, it will likely mean wrenching changes for companies that have become reliant on rapidly growing consumer spending. Some firms have already begun cutting back operations in line with lower demand.”
“But only $50,000,000 to spend”
Grim,
At least it is only $50Mil. It won’t do anything, and will allow the politicos to crow about how much they are doing, but at least it won’t cost us too much. Maybe King Jon can just cut a check from his vacation account.
“In the shorter run, though, it will likely mean wrenching changes for companies that have become reliant on rapidly growing consumer spending. ”
if the choice is between long-term survival and short-term but fake prosperity, I will take a bit of short-term pain any day.
DOn’t fret, hOpe is On the hOrizOn
Viacom/CBS may be up for a forced sale.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINBNG34815720081020?rpc=44
#20 Cindy: I have seen these types of articles before. My only question has always been, how can they save, if they are spending so much of their income servicing existing debt?
We need to remove any obstacle that stands in the way of keeping families in their homes and letting them fulfill that American dream.
So this is what we have come to? The “American Dream” is now an entitlement? I just lost my breakfast.
(25) 3b
“..how can they save..?”
Just like scores of people have done before them..cut back on whatever you can cut back on..I have – many are…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7654647.stm
Isn’t this interesting?
#tbw: 2 of the condos in the castle condo complex in River Edge are in foreclosure,and the penthouse has been reduced from 1.3 million to 995K
House price at $925,000 in Upper Saddle River:
According to the agent, the owners turned down an $850,000 offer not too long ago. By March, they will wish they accepted it.
I’d like to slap the potential buyers for even offering that much.
Gator was one of those folks out at Best Buy yesterday. Shopping with her brother for his birthday Ipod. He can spend all he wants. He works for the federal government.
Since Stu and I work in the private sector, we only buy reduced priced necessities at the outlets.
“how can they save, if they are spending so much of their income servicing existing debt?”
I don’t know about anyone else but, this consumer views paying-down debt as a form of savings.
Clot: my experience is that those who become outside consultants are former insiders that double the price as the cost of their overhead and pay the ones working the contract what the goverment formerly paid itself.
Cindy: If Washington really wanted to promote saving, it would stop taxing interest on savings accounts.
(22) Shore –
I’m hoping the consumers continue to shun loans, save and budget. I know – I know – rose-colored glasses.
The firms that cut back, don’t over-order, and notice the cut in demand – will survive.
If folks continue to support munis, local, state bonds – maybe we can help ourselves out of our own mess.
Gator,
That is NOT what George Herbert Hoover Bush had in mind when he spoke of one’s patriotic duty to shop. Think top tier, not discount. Do your part for the economy.
shore (22)-
That sentiment puts you squarely in a very small minority.
“If Washington really wanted to promote saving, it would stop taxing interest on savings accounts.”
Bingo. The federal government and the several states should exempt the first , say, $20,000 in earnings from interest, dividands, and capital gains. This would help the middle class.
Merrill Chief Thain Expects `Thousands’ of Job Cuts (Update1)
By Sean Evers
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Merrill Lynch & Co. Chief Executive Officer John Thain said he expects “thousands” of job losses from the bank’s $50 billion takeover by Bank of America Corp.
Most of the cuts will fall in information technology, operations and finance, Thain, 53, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Dubai today. Jobs won’t be eliminated in the fixed income and commodities divisions, he said.
“We haven’t mapped it out in terms of actual number of people, but we are committed to saving $7 billion across the combined platforms, and that will be a challenge,” Thain said. “Between our two companies it will be clearly thousands of jobs.”
Thain turned to Bank of America CEO Kenneth Lewis last month after a crisis of confidence in Wall Street firms forced Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. into bankruptcy and raised speculation Merrill could be vulnerable. The firm has already cut more than 5,000 jobs in the past 18 months, taking its headcount to about 60,000, in an effort to rein in costs as credit markets froze.
Thain said he expects those markets to thaw over the next six to twelve months after governments in Europe and the U.S. injected trillions of dollars into banks last week to avert a financial crisis. The U.S. government will inject $125 billion into banks, including $25 billion into Bank of America, which is based in Charlotte, North Carolina, and New York-based Merrill.
Libor Falls
Interbank lending rates, which had surged as banks hoarded cash after the U.S. subprime market collapsed, have fallen from records. The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, which banks charge each other for three-month loans in dollars, last week posted its first weekly drop since July.
“That is the beginning of unfreezing of liquidity between banks,” Thain said. “You will start to see some access into the commercial paper market in the U.S. so that the capital injection, plus the other pieces of the program that the Fed and Treasury and FDIC put together, will start to unfreeze the commercial paper market.”
The government plan won’t avert a recession, Thain added. “Over the next 12 months we are still going to be in a global recession,” he said. “I don’t think the economies of the world will recover quickly. Clearly the U.S. economy is contracting significantly. The question for me is how deep and how long the recession will be.”
Thain, a former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. executive, earned the nickname “Mr. Fixit” for his stewardship of the New York Stock Exchange for four years beginning in January 2004. He replaced Stan O’Neal as Merrill Lynch’s CEO last December, after the company’s losses from securities linked to subprime mortgages began to emerge.
Subprime Losses
The bank racked up $52.2 billion in losses and writedowns from subprime-contaminated securities before Oct. 16. The company’s stock has plunged about 81 percent in New York trading from a peak of $97.53 at the start of last year. Thain will oversee corporate and investment banking and wealth management at the combined firms, making him a potential successor to the 61- year-old Lewis.
“Even in a more difficult economic environment, the Merrill Lynch pieces of the now combined companies, will in fact be profitable next year,” Thain said.
Banks from New York to London have pared more than 130,000 jobs since June 2007 as firms including Lehman and Bear Stearns Cos. collapsed. Banks and insurers have booked more than $661.2 billion in losses and writedowns since the global credit crisis began about 14 months ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sean Evers in Dubai at evers@bloomberg.net; Arif Sharif in Dubai at asharif2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 20, 2008 03:53 EDT
dl (33)-
Yep. A very sophisticated circle jerk.
Clot,
I know it does. But so does not carrying credit card debt, despite charging thousands each month, paying off a mortgage about 20 years early, having a couple years worth of savings, etc.
This would help the middle class.
Why would anyone want that?
(33) DL
“If Washington really wanted to promote saving, it would stop taxing interest on savings accounts.”
Totally agree – stated as much many times…
BUT – that isn’t what Washington wants us to do – they would prefer we spend.
What I am pointing out is that many ARE NOT DOING what Washington would like us to do…
AND – I believe that is good for the country.
The polls are open. At least in CO.
Cindy (34)-
Would you buy a NJ or CA muni? When it’s obvious that one of the neat, new thingies about our economy will be the spectacle of a state (or states) declaring bankruptcy?
Apparently leaving voter fraud to Acorn is not in the game plan:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/20/republican-voter-registration-chief-arrested-fraud-california/
Doh, Grim, you are right. It is about APPEARING to help, whilst feathering one’s own nest and that of ones flockmates.
(43) Clot
I don’t have extra money but several here in CA have bought bond funds.
Clot – this is just me – looking for answers – you know – take me with a grain of salt…
grim (40)-
The only unifying principle in this whole clusterf*^k is that everybody in DC and Wall St is on board with utterly destroying the middle class.
The debt thrown off by this debacle will also erase the possibility of a new middle class forming for at least 40 years.
Ok, here’s the scenario:
1) My cousin is closing on a house Friday that he overpaid for.
2) He still hasn’t had an offer on his current house and had another open house yesterday.
3) He will carry two mortgages and property taxes as a result.
4) I don’t know how much he’s putting down on the new house.
5) The house he just bought is in the same town as the one he’s selling and it’s a so-so town and on the decline in the opinion of many. More than one has asked why he isn’t buying in another town.
6) I don’t know what type of mortgage he is getting.
7) Once the old house sells, he will refinance, pay even more fees and costs and put the remaining money towards the balance of the new house.
I want you all to disect and analyze this one. I’m aching to hear your take on this scenario.
315! Do I hear 325? 325! Do I hear 350? 350! Do I hear, how about 400 folks? 400!
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/10/updated_electoral_map_ob*ama_at.html?nav=rss_blog
remove * to activate
how can they save, if they are spending so much of their income servicing existing debt
Go to Paterson and take a lesson from the immigrant population. They make minimum wage, don’t use credit and still manage to send a huge chuck of their pay home to their families.
Shore (44)-
Aw, shucks. The guy was just trying to set a good example.
Besides, everybody knows the best way to commit vote fraud is to tamper with the machines while they’re still at Diebold.
gary (48)-
Do you have a finished basement?
Clotpoll,
lol! Say what? :)
gary (53)-
Er…like for your cuz to move into.
Once he taps out…
“the best way to commit vote fraud is to tamper with the machines while they’re still at Diebold”
What was it the president of Diebold said four years ago? Something to the effect of, “I will do everything in my power to see that [George Herbert Hoover Bush] is reelected.”
Is it tampering if the underlying code has a pre-ordained result programed-in?
GAry,
On your way to being your brother’s keeper?
Gary’s gonna make his cousin his byatch.
IMO, I think Gary needs a personal valet. It will give him a newfound cachet in the PBC circles he travels in.
However, his valet will have to inform him that he has to stop wearing his Eli jersey to the country club.
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-10-16-08_lg.asp
A must watch. Talking heads are just nodding their heads in agreement with Peter Schiff on CNBC neverless and noone dares to rebuttle or take the opposite side or even question anything he says.
Short of Jim Rogers this man is becoming a living legend.
I think I would rather get invited to a ball game.
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/story?id=6057527&page=1
(50) Renting..
I’m with you. I have a lot of faith in the American people.
Everyone thought – the market could only go up.
They were in the dark for so long – now they are not. What an education. I think people will be much more prudent in the future.
Say, I could be way wrong – that is just what I think.
I don’t see CA going bankrupt. We’ll figure out something.
“I don’t see CA going bankrupt. We’ll figure out something.”
Selling a southern county to Mexico?
Speaking of which, if I were a foreign government buying U.S. Treasuries now, I would be asking for the USG to put up some land as collateral.
Shore Guy (60):
Gives true meaning to the word ‘butt buddy’.
Missed a lot this weekend; down with a cold, and lost too much sleep watching my beloved Sox finally succumb, but not without an epic struggle.
Some observations from Weekend Open Discussion
1. Grim, cute puppy. You are the man. A contribution for the blog is forthcoming. Email me info.
2. Diane, if I could reply to the following:
– How is giving a concrete number a vague campaign promise?
NDP: The number was selected for ease of reference and to cut off a certain percentage of voters that would neither benefit from nor want to see wealth distribution. This is not unprecedented and, in fact, happens a lot.
– As i believe, it is a progressive tax. Only the amount above $250k will be taxed at a higher rate. I have read the numbers on CNN, and quoting JTP’s numbers of 280k – it would lead to an additional $900 in taxes.
NDP: This is based on a hypothetical taxpayer. Most cohorts of the population are affected differently, and some distort their behavior in response. This is one reason the tax structure is so byzantine. Further, nearly every MSM analysis largely ignores the effect of indirect taxation. It is one thing to say that you want to hike taxes on certain corporations, but corporate tax hikes are, IMHO, a regressive tax on the general population (personally, I like most regressive taxes on fairness grounds).
The main factor which is killing small businesses is the cost of health care. If this can be addressed, I believe it will lead to higher savings than tax cuts.
NDP: Personally, I doubt the savings will materialize, but even if the government run dual system comes to pass at less cost to businesses, you will have to be content with less choice, more cost controls affecting treatment options, and better care going to those that can game the system. Could be wrong but that is how I think it will play out. And lets not forget that indirect tax effect–this shifts some healthcare costs from the companies and individuals to taxpayers. If you are in the lower brackets, you don’t have a problem with this though.
BTW, if Bill Clinton raised taxes – how come businesses flourished during those years?
NDP: Growth of internet infrastructure, associated tech spending by people and businesses, and the dot.com bubble. Also, IMHO, the start of the housing bubble, fostered in part by Section 121 of the Internal Revenue Code.
And why are businesses floundering under the Bush tax cuts?
NDP: Fewer customers, less spending caused by high prices and a market decline. Was there a lot of floundering before 2007? I missed it.
3. Clot: re: the soc1alist road. I came to the same conclusion. I believe that the path is fixed and we will only accelerate down it. In fact, it is largely necessary as a result of global economics and the breakdown of self-contained economies. We are trending toward a leveling of economic systems, notably in tax through the treaties and tax regimes in industrialized nations, and the failure of capitalism to address needs without profit motives. I do find it slightly surprising that Eurozone countries are trending away from socia1ism (and Spain was hit by the EC for its “exit tax”, a tax the U.S. just imposed), but that is, IMHO, the inevitable pendulum swing. The swings will become shorter and shorter over time, with the end result being a semi-socia1ist economy worldwide.
lol! You Guys kill me! :) I suppose you’re telling me things aren’t going to work out for him the way he expected? I told my wife that he should pull the whole deal and let them try and sue him as it would be a lot cheaper than the alternative. I feel for him and his family.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27238919
I did not know this existed anymore.
[62] shore,
Hasn’t Mexico annexed it already?
Stu,
It could be an alternative to an AC GTG. We can all lie down in a circle, chatting, whilst we get, um, checked out. Maybe bring in a film crew to document the bonding experience.
[69] shore
Think I will skip that one.
Not officially, Nom. But, they seem to be following the same path that the Texicans followed before establishing their short-lived republic.
Gary’s Cousin’s 7 Step Program –
After completion of Step 2 he is officially hosed. Imagine 2 mortgages in this economy?
The best case for this dude…..Is there a mortgage contingency clause on the new purchase? Find some lame excuse to have the funding fall thru. Even if he forfeits a couple grand in Earnest Money, he’ll be miles ahead in the long run.
Nom,
Anyone can talk RE over a beer.
shore (60)-
Come to my office. I give colonoscopies, of a sort.
“I suppose you’re telling me things aren’t going to work out for him the way he expected? ”
I think uit is great that he will be living the American Dream, twice.
After the six-figure buggering we have taken in our retirement plans, Clot, I think I will have to pass-up your offer.
Fiddy [72],
You just know the people selling that house are praying non-stop for the closing to come and go without a hitch.
gary (66)-
The best thing your cuz could do is breach the contract and just forfeit his deposit.
Your first loss is your best loss.
Gary,
Lighting candles as we speak.
Nom:
“the failure of capitalism to address needs without profit motives.”
This is one my biggest pet peeves and a major problem with capitalism.
I like to blame a lot of the problems with our local government on this same issue.
I have a brother-in-law in homeland security. They have enormous amounts of file cabinets and spend a great amount of time moving the files around. I asked him why they don’t scan the materials like most in the private sector. Such a solution would save a lot of tax payer money and would also provide an easy way to archive the material in the event of a disaster. His answer was that many had already suggested it, but the solution was ignored for many there would lose their jobs. For years I have been telling the gator that if I ever ran for office, I would hire auditors who would be paid a salary commensurate to their savings achieved. I figure the commission would work out to somewhere around .001% for the auditor to pull in a six-figure salary.
Shore (76)-
I’d take a buggering before I took a colonoscopy.
Clot,
Play your cards right and you might even get dinner and a movie out of it, lol.
Stu (80)-
Just realize that if you truly streamline gubmint functions, you’ve just thrown a workforce larger than GM’s- at its peak- outof work.
The bureaucracy has grown large enough to perpetuate itself. And, they will do anything to hold what they have.
Hell, it was probably a bunch of paper-pushers that whacked Kennedy.
Clot 83: I hate the what will we do with the ‘laid off workforce’ excuse. Why doesn’t that hold weight in the private sector? One could probably win the governorship of NJ by running a platform based simply on the dismantling of the government workers union if explained properly.
Stu,
If one were creating either the national or state government rom scratch today, I wonder what it would look like and what would be added and what deleted.
stu (85)-
“One could probably win the governorship of NJ by running a platform based simply on the dismantling of the government workers union if explained properly.”
Either that…or become likely to perish as the result of a mysterious car crash.
we’re officially out of ING. didn’t want to lose a large portion of our house downpayment.
does anyone have a link to the best and safest online backs with the best rates? i didn’t bookmark it last time.
we’re doing Emigrant already, and considering HSBC. what are you guys using?
I used to work for the city government. The hours were 9 – 4, an hour for lunch, four hours of reading the newspaper, an hour of work and an hour of visiting co-workers in other departments. All with the best benefits imaginable.
Gary – You might want to work for the city again. I hear the hours and benefits are the same, but there are no residency requirements for the tech jobs. My cousin’s husband keeps asking me if I want him to let me know the next time they offer the civil service test.
BTW – All my cousins are right wing, ultra-orthodox Jews, yet for some reason, they are all employed by the city of New York. Why do I find this ironic?
Yikes,
doesn’t bankrate do that?
Bergabe about to open his pie hole.
Dow @ 206.
Chairman of committee looks like Boss Hogg.
gator (90)-
What other employer could accommodate their schedule of holidays?
(92)-
+206, that is.
My brother’s federal government hours are 8-4:30. Yet everyone at the office is allowed to leave at 4:20 each day so in order to “catch the train”. He was also told on his first week on the job to “never start anything new after 4PM since it will still be here tomorrow.”
They also reimburse him for his regular commuting expenses.
The goyim’s money is as good as anyone elses?
Clot 93 – Touche. My brother just started his job in August and needed to take 3 days off for the high holidays. He only had 2 in the back, so he was told to just come in early for a few days in order to get fully paid. Now he hasn’t been fully trained, so he couldn’t really do anything with no one else in the office, but he was there.
golem, even.
Benny looking for another stimulus package?
The Brits have such colorful criminals. How can Wall Street crimes compare to this:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/7679695.stm
From my latest weekly realtor email. Somehow me thinks you’re going to need more than a few leaves in your pictures to move your home this winter:
Selling Your Home In The Next 6 Months?
If you’re planning on selling your home during the bleak winter months, call me ASAP and we will shoot the exterior photos of your home, while your landscaping is still lush.
By doing this, you will outshine your competition and give YOUR home the advantage online! I did this last year and it really gave my sellers an advantage.
NJGator,
I just may look into it again. At the time, I was working in the engineering department but now I can consider the IT end. I loved the idea of going home everyday at the same time.
gary (102)-
And you’re ok with your brain turning into a mass of goo?
It would, however, be funny to see you start making pro-Corzine posts here.
Clotpoll [103],
I’m already a burnout so what’s the difference.
gator (101)-
Better to take the lousy Winter pic and Photoshop a tree full of money onto it.
(105)-
Sorry for posing the moot question. :)
gary (105)-
You’ve just inadvertently provided me with the motto for my new Realtor personal marketing campaign.
how could the pension fund management of the state pay bonuses … if they lost money
how is that possible ,, only in NJ?
Max,
If you don’t pay the bonuses you cant keep the investment talent. Cough, gag.
110 – I like to think of this along the lines of the high profile freelancers we put on retainer to write for our magazines. Invariably many of them do not fulfill the requirements of their contract, yet the magazine wants to renew the agreement.
I want to get on that gravy train – to be paid to NOT write. I think many of the titles we publish will be much better if Gator doe NOT write for them.
Yepper, lets borroe money, to give to people who do not save, in order to save the economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27278395
borrow, even.
We have entered the end of days.
“Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Monday a fresh round of government stimulus is a good idea because there’s a risk the country’s economic weakness could last for some time.”
Is it me or does this make absolutely no sense. If the downturn will last a long time, how will short term stimulus help anything except to continue the pillaging of our offspring?
There might be a bubble in stimuli.
Stu,
Your problem is that you are applying reason to an essentially-political issue.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=6066073
Excellent discussin on the election.
Damn, I can’t type. Discussion, even.
my brother works for a gov. contractor (that was just awarded a new 60mm contract)on the lakehurst navel base and they just sent out 6 employees to other us navel bases throughout the world to get this….COUNT TOOLS IN TOOL BOXES!no joke. all paid expenses to Hawaii, Germany, Mexico and they even get $150 in meal money each day!
these folks aren’t “trained” tool counters, whatever that may mean or have any special certificates. just the lucky ones chosen to do the job.
The other half: http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=6066073
Secondary,
At least they are trying to keep track of the items. I know of instances where we have lost track of, lets just describe them as, high-tech, easily-transported weapon systems that can cause, with each attack, hundreds of millions of dollars worth of damage. In fact, they have been left under the control of foreign nationals, without security clearances, and no count of them before transport, and no count afterwards.
Time to go make money.
Shore(123),
I haven’t been able to do that for quite some time. What’s your secret?
make
Directions for running the FED and Treasury!
If you try something once and it fails try again a second time, but do it bigger. Repeat until bankrupt.
I think I could do a bang up job of destroying the FED. Where do I apply?
Site down or did I just scare the crap outta everybody?
If you try something once and it fails try again a second time, but do it bigger. Repeat until bankrupt.
Martingale!
Unfortunately for McC, “Real Virginia” doesn’t have it’s own EVs to award.
McC aide says he’s strong in ‘real’ Virginia
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iWPrEwht8KbeE6jLFd2TMngj0_3gD93T6DI00
Yikes,
CapitalOne pays 3.55% on online savings with a $10,000 minimum, and has a five-star rating from Bankrate.com.
Emigrantdirect recently launched another site – dollarsavingsdirect.com – which is a direct copy of emigrantdirect.com (same setup, same services) The difference – emigrantdirect pays 3% with no minimum depost, dollarsavingsdirect pays 4% with a $1,000 minimum.
If you’re in NJ, Hudson City Savings Bank has gotten a lot of publicity as a smaller bank that is in great shape. No idea of their rates. PNC is supposedly in good shape, too.
Hey, Gator:
You said:
# NJGator Says:
October 20th, 2008 at 10:35 am
110 – I like to think of this along the lines of the high profile freelancers we put on retainer to write for our magazines. Invariably many of them do not fulfill the requirements of their contract, yet the magazine wants to renew the agreement.
Huh?
I’m a freelancer, and if I didn’t produce, I wouldn’t get paid!
Where is this magical kingdom?
Can I send you a resume via Grim? :)
Citibank has a 6-month FDIC insured CD at 4%. Not a bad deal if you can afford to lock up your cash.
https://web.da-us.citibank.com/cgi-bin/citifi/scripts/prod_and_service/prod_serv_detail.jsp?BS_Id=SvgCDs&BV_UseBVCookie=yes
Of course, if Citi doesn’t make it 6 months, the CD might take a bit longer to mature if the FDIC has to help you out. :P
This is my approach:
http://mail2.someecards.com/filestorage/soto_5b.jpg
scribe (131)-
Sounds like either Conde Nast or Rolling Stone, Hunter Thompson-era.
131 Scribe – These are our special famous people. Instead of paying them per piece (the way most get paid), they get a monthly check and agree to write a certain number of pieces for us.
The Dutch bail out of ING is about $ 10,000 per Dutch citizen. That’s only 1/2 of what we are spending. Time to let the dike break and drown some banks over there!
The article reads: “Real estate analyst Jeff Otteau of the Otteau Valuation Group in East Brunswick said prices in North Jersey have dropped 19 percent since the high of 2005 and will likely continue to drop for the next six months or so, by 5 percent to 10 percent more”
Does that mean that Jeff thinks that the market will bottum in 6 months from now?
Gator (136)-
Anytime you guys want a piece like “My Special Tijuana Places”, gimme a holler.
I can write travel stuff that will make you want to get a tetanus shot just for reading it.
Gator,
It’s amazing how hard most writers work to make a living, while some just coast based on a famous name!
Clot,
I bet you could be the new Hunter Thompson!
Tough to pull off. I don’t like drugs.
Yup Scribe. And it’s those famous people who holler loudest for their money :)
Clot 139 – I think that could make a great honeymoon piece.
Does that mean that Jeff thinks that the market will bottum in 6 months from now?
Wouldn’t be the first time Jeff called a bottom. Keep in mind he had already called “bottom” before, he’s since revised his position somewhat.
Didn’t you and Stu check out a donkey show on your honeymoon?
Hey, don’t knock it.
grim (145)-
I never thought things would get to the point where I’d think Otteau had become irrelevant, but I believe we are squarely at such a point.
To me, he’s just become part of the white noise in the background, charting each new datapoint of a massive down. Seems like the equivalent of those FAA guys who pick up all the little bits of crashed planes, then put them back together.
I know it’s his job, but for a guy so steeped in the numbers to continue to make calls based on nothing but conjecture and hope stretches his credibility to the outer limit. And I say this as a longtime supporter of his. He should shut up and let other, better-established fools make the calls.
Or, Otteau should come over to the dark side…
Couldn’t find any donkey’s in Hawaii.
[81] stu,
For my part, the best example of this is the environment. Capitalism (and a consumption culture) is largely incompatible with environmental protection. It can, if incentivized, provide tools or prevent some damage, but that’s it.
Because a functional ecosystem is a necessary predicate to so many things, such as life on the planet, it should be apparent that regulation in this area is as necessary as maintaining fair markets (if not more so). Thus, it behooves even the most ardent free-market capitalist to contribute to the system that makes the system possible.
[149]
I don’t even wanna know how donkeys and honeymoons got on the same page.
Fackcheck.org on the Acorn “Scandal”:
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/acorn_accusations.html
Incidentally, when George Pataki was last running for re-election, his campaign had a kid from Bed_Stuy out in Bryant Park trying to register new Republican voters in Manhattan. The kid came up to me and my co-worker. When we wouldn’t sign up, he wanted to know why no one was willing to sign up. This was a big problem for him, because he was getting paid per registration. My friend, who couldn’t leave well enough alone, then started explaining to him that Pataki and the R’s were trying to get ride of rent control so that Yuppies from Manhattan could move into Bed Stuy and gentrify the old brownstones and price him out. That got him pretty pissed off.
I bet that the R party registered a lot of Mickey Mouses that day. I don’t, however, think any of them actually tried to vote.
Dare I ask what a donkey show is?
I think my wife is slipping little doses of arsenic into my dinner.
Shore (153)-
Best taken on an empty stomach:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donkey_show
Clot,
Little doses mean she loves you. Haven’t you seen the Princess Bride?
Gator 152:
“This was a big problem for him, because he was getting paid per registration.”
I would have asked for a cut.
From NJBIZ, Seneca and Hughes:
N.J. Employment Losses Intensify in September
The monthly payroll employment report released by the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development for September provides the last snapshot of the state economy before the global financial crisis spread and intensified.
Employment losses in September, following the national trend for the month, accelerated in New Jersey, portending very significant declines during the balance of the year and deep into 2009 as the aftershocks of the global credit crisis reverberate through the broader economy.
The loss of 3,900 total payroll jobs in September brought the 2008 total employment decline to 21,100 jobs this year, measured December 2007 to September 2008. Similarly, the private sector lost 3,700 jobs in September, bringing its yearly decline to 18,700 jobs. Surprisingly, during September, state government added 400 jobs, while local government shed 400 jobs. Since federal government employment declined by 200 jobs, the total government loss was 200 jobs.
A number of higher-paying employment sectors led the broad-based retreat. Financial activities declined by 1,900 jobs, a harbinger of losses to come as broad financial industry restructuring accelerates. Manufacturing lost 1,800 jobs, continuing its pattern of decline. So far this year, we’ve lost 9,900 manufacturing jobs. While professional and business services added 200 jobs in September, this was the result of a gain of 1,300 jobs in the waste management and administrative support subsector. This masked losses in the higher-paying subsectors of professional, scientific and technical services (lost 1,000 jobs), and management of companies and enterprises (down 100 jobs).
In addition, construction lost 800 jobs as the housing bust continued to deepen, information lost 600 jobs and jobs in wholesale trade declined by 500 as consumer retrenchment continued. Other losses were registered in the below-average paying sectors of arts, entertainment and recreation (down 1,100 jobs), educational services (lost 100 jobs), and other services (down 100 jobs). Accommodations and food services (added 1,200 jobs), and health care and social assistance (created 1,100 jobs) posted gains.
“If Congress can rush another round of checks through before the election, or at least distract us with a gaudy show of trying, some incumbent seats will no doubt be saved from voter wrath. But Ec-Stim is political gibberish, of course, and amounts to little more than a second multi-billion dollar bailout… of the online porn industry. That is a fact.
According to AIMRCo, the Adult Internet Market Research Co., the online porn industry reported 20-30% growth in membership rates this summer following the initial round of Ec-Stim checks in mid-May. That’s normally the slowest time of the year for online porn, AIMRCo said, which is far more information than we need or want if you really think about it.”
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Bernanke-liquidity-deflation-headstone-helicopter/index/a/19601
The “O Change Manefesto”, remids me of the Twilight Zone show, “To Serve Man”. Everyone was happy with the Aliens Oratatory, until they realized “To Serve Man”, was a “Cook Book”.
Grim unmod 159
anybody know a good volkwagen dealer. i want to buy a toureg.
any help appreciated
car salespeople ,, same a realtors,,
brain death,, has set in
I really wish we could stop talking about a bottom. I’ve been hearing bottom since 2006.
[160] Comrade confused,
You do know that such sarcasm will be deemed antisocial behavior, and you will be subject to re-education, after the Glorious November Revolution, don’t you?
ignorance of sellers is mind boggling. do they not understand the connection between the lax lending of the past few years and the paper rise in value of their houses? all you have to do is look back 5-7 yrs, back when most people were making the same money as they are now, to see how wildly overinflated these asking prices are. yet these sellers still seem to think this is a temporary dip
[162] max
my 0.02. I would avoid VWs. I have an audi (basically a vw on steroids) and have had recurring issues with it. I have since learned that such constant mechanical replacement is endemic to vws and audis. Some of the problems were so widespread that NJ sued VW/Audi some years back (or forced them into a consent decree or some such thing).
I was going to get big magnetic lemons to put on the side of the car, but Mrs. Deplume just glared at me when I suggested it.
Nom, I have one too a mechanic told me it has many over complicated systems prone to failure. A guy at an oil change place pointed out that all audis and vw burn oil at least .5-1 qt of oil between changes. The car is a great driving car but thankfully I leased as I would not want to own it. Some plastic piece broke on the intake and the car was stalling, violently shaking at idle, and not revving up for highway speeds.
“We are trending toward a leveling of economic systems, notably in tax through the treaties and tax regimes in industrialized nations, and the failure of capitalism to address needs without profit motives. I do find it slightly surprising that Eurozone countries are trending away from socia1ism (and Spain was hit by the EC for its “exit tax”, a tax the U.S. just imposed), but that is, IMHO, the inevitable pendulum swing. The swings will become shorter and shorter over time, with the end result being a semi-socia1ist economy worldwide.”
this is very insightful
#165 skeptic:yet these sellers still seem to think this is a temporary dip.
Very frustrating. A lot more denial this time around than during the last housing bust.
skep-tic [165],
The sellers are going to get top dollar for their castles and will not be insulted with a lower-than-expected offer. If the asking is $600,000, then maybe they’ll accept $575,000 but not a penny less!! After all, we live close to NYC and they’re not making anymore land, you know.
“Best taken on an empty stomach:”
With an intro like that, I think I will pass. I take it that it does not involve cute straw hats etc.
I think the boom (or bubble, if you prefer) went on for so long (about 10 yrs) that homeowners still think it is the natural order of things for prices to go up. I think that there is still a widespread sense among them that they can “wait it out.” Whereas anyone who really looks at the data understands that they will never see real prices market peak level again
“the asking is $600,000, then maybe they’ll accept $575,000”
The breaking of ‘mad-as-hell Gary’ has begun.
Gary – What’s the maximum radius of this “close to NYC” protection. I have friends in the Middletown/Red Bank area and they try to claim it all the time. Kinda hard to believe since just 12 miles out in Montclair I am seeing lots of price drops.
3b I agree. There is more denial. I think because prices went up so much, sellers feel they have a “cushion”, so they can wait out this “dip”. Ride that wave.
skep-tic (172):
I think it has a lot more to do with the lack of personal savings that people have this time around. Sellers won’t lower their asking prices because they can’t afford to since they would be underwater and would have to bring a check to the closing. I know many people in this situation currently.
176 – Most of the people we know in this situation, don’t have the money to write that check.
It’s speaks loudly to the power of purchasing a home with a 30-year mortgage more than 4 times ones yearly income. Sure the payments are doable, but you can’t save enough simultaneously to be able to afford to unload the home if prices on it drop.
Message to future home buyers…You need a lot more than the down-payment to securely own a home. Overextend at great risk.
Stu [176],
I agree, either find a bigger fool or jingle mail. Currently, 1 out of 6 are underwater. If you add realtor’s comm, closing costs and RE transfer fee, the #, underwater, probably increases by a wide margin.
NJGator [174],
Those price drops you see are the bottom. We will have “normal” appreciation of 6% to 7% beginning in March for the forseeable future. I suggest that you and Stu consider buying soon or be priced out forever. And your friends in Middletown are just “minutes” from NYC because that’s what a realtor told me…. so you know it’s gotta be true.
Gary 180 – I bet it extends all the way out to the “E-Z Commute Communities” in the Poconos!
“Gary 180 – I bet it extends all the way out to the “E-Z Commute Communities” in the Poconos!”
Haven’t you heard? The train is coming!
NJGator,
Just 60 minutes door to door from the serenity of the Poconos to your high-powered position in the heart of the financial district.
Stu [182],
LOL!
I have heard that there are a lot of sellers who simply can’t sell because they are underwater. Whenever I see a house for sale that was bought in the last 3-4 yrs with an absurdly high asking price, I assume the person is underwater and that it is a waste of time.
But I also think there is still a lot of real denial beyond this. For example, I frequently read a blog from a realtor in Greenwich, CT who generally seems pretty on top of things. He is even admitting now that a lot of 3d quarter sales in Greenwich (there were only sales 12 total for entire quarter!) are happening at 2001 prices. Yet he still argues that paying 2005 price is not dumb due to the “long term value” of owning (as if prices are now artifically depressed rather than mean-reverting). I think a lot of sellers who have owned for a long time and have a lot of equity think this way too. I am not sure what it will take for people to accept that this is not a temporary dip. The market has been getting steadily worse even in the most blue chip areas for at least 15 months now.
#175 Ray: How anybody can think they will ride this out, is moronic.
Or to put it another way, after all that has transpired, to believe that somehow real esate which is at the center of it all will remain unscathed, is moronic.
My advice is for current sellers to think about jacking up the price 5% to 7% in February in anticipation of the pant up demand. And there is pant up demand… you just know there is… no seriously…. really!!
#182 Stu: The train has been coming since 1985 (at least). I know somebody who moved out there all those years ago, bcause the train was coming.
#185 skeptic:Yet he still argues that paying 2005 price is not dumb due to the “long term value” of owning,
How can he believe that is not dumb? Truly amazing!!
#170 gary:After all, we live close to NYC
I guess they will leave out the part about the jobs in NYC.
And besides, the interest rates are still near historic lows while there is plenty of inventory to choose from so it’s never been a better time to buy.
#191 gary: And we are one of teh richest counties in America (Bergen, or so the realtors say), and as long as our schools stay on top.
3b,
That’s prestigous Bergen County… don’t forget.
Prestigious, Blue Ribbon Bergen County!
speaking of CT, Dodd continues to refuse to release his “friend of Angelo” loan docs:
http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/op_ed/hc-rennie1019.artoct19,0,5908872.column
Gary 183 – You forgot to ass the asterisk regarding timed at 2AM on a Sunday while travelling 80+MPH.
“Just 60 minutes door to door from the serenity of the Poconos to your high-powered position in the heart of the financial district.”
Haven’t you heard? The train is coming!
Monorail?
More great news!!!
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/081020/business_us_housing_ratings_fitch.html
October 13, 2008, 3:28 pm
Foreclosure Auctions Slow to Unload Inventory
“Few people placed bids at a recent auction run by the Sheriff’s office in New Jersey’s Bergen County. “If you want to go back a few years ago, it was standing room only,” said Don Pfleger, a real estate broker who said he has bought about a dozen properties at auction over the past several years. “Now it’s getting thinner as the weeks go on, as more and more properties are up for sale.” On this day at the end of September, only three of the 23 properties on the block went to a bidder. The remaining 20 went back to the banks.”
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2008/10/13/foreclosure-auctions-slow-to-unload-inventory/
From Reuters:
Home prices to fall another 10 percent: Fitch
U.S. home prices will fall another 10 percent before they begin to show signs of stabilizing, Fitch Ratings said on Monday.
National home prices have declined a full 22 percent from the peak hit in 2006, the agency said in a note. Fitch has a peak to trough forecast for prices to decline 30 percent.
The additional 8 percent decline is equal to another 10 percent decline from current levels, it said. Most of that correction will take place in the next several quarters before prices exhibit stability in 2010, said the agency.
Fitch’s analysis indicates that expected drop will reverse the home price increases seen between 2004 and 2006.
“Should economic conditions become much worse than expected, home prices would decline more than Fitch’s projection and price stabilization would be delayed,” said Huxley Somerville, group managing director and head of U.S. residential mortgage backed securities.
“Higher mortgage rates and tighter underwriting also will continue to put downward pressure on prices.”
I don’t see this supposed big decline in our neck of the woods. I still see laughable asking prices on the majority of homes yet data for our area is showing a ~15% decline from peak? Where? Unless the sales price is a lot less than the asking.
Gary (200):
Stop by my multi in Montclair. We most likely dropped 15% from peak. I’d even sell it to you for 20% off peak in a private sale. Want in?
Stu,
I would never do a transaction without the professional guidance of a member of The National Association of Realtors. ;)
But then, you’d have to pay ’em!
wow– capitulation in Cali?
By Jim Christie
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Southern California home sales soared nearly 65 percent in September from a year earlier as bargain hunters seized on the region’s glut of foreclosures and depressed real estate prices, according to a report released on Monday by MDA DataQuick.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE49J7F120081020
Stu,
But…. but…. they’re professionals and we couldn’t possibly handle a transaction of this type without their leadership and experience! :o
I mad the same offer, but only inverse when our property tax assessment came in. When arguing with the the assessment company, I told them their price of $650 was so off that I would sell it to them four $575 no questions asked. Gary, you could have it today for $552,500 and with no realtor commission.
more from the above
“Foreclosure resales rose to account for half of all sales in the region last month, which helped cut the region’s September median sale price to $308,500, down 6.5 percent from August and 33.2 percent from a year earlier.”
I honestly think the place is probably worth about 510K though.
Stu,
Stop insulting the sellers!! :)
I still see laughable asking prices on the majority of homes …unless the sales price is a lot less than the asking.
For the most part asking prices are still ridiculous. But most of those places are just sitting there and will continue to sit until next year.
Many sellers are still chasing the market down with small prices cuts, but remain behind the market a day late and dollar short.
Others simply can’t afford to sell at market because they bought too high or have too much debt, so their strategy is to list high and pray to God for a knight in shining armor to buyer their POS.
I wonder if the logjam will by broken in the tri-state area the way it is apparently being broken on the west coast: through foreclosures
[167] jcer,
I am burning a lot of oil, and the latest guy suggested a high mileage oil will help. We will see. And it isn’t just that things break, though there are certain of them that apparently are famous for doing so, it is that it costs a *&#^$% grand or more each time. I swear that I have paid more in repairs for my car than it cost me to buy my S-10 11 years ago (which I sold to my BIL, and it still runs great).
[168] Skep,
Insightful? Wow. I have not received a compliment of that sort since 2004, when an assistant A.G. and a Federal Reserve lawyer both commended some ideas/analysis of mine as “brilliant.” (first and only times I have ever been called brilliant with a straight face).
That was a compliment, right?
[202] gary,
What I found amazing is that, with very little practical knowledge in this area, I was telling my broker and my attorney how to do their jobs, and had to correct them on many occasions.
I know nothing. And yet I am smarter than them.
I wish I had a dollar for every time I suppressed the urge to ask “tell me again why I am paying you?” Would cover a good portion of the next GTG bar tab.
““Just 60 minutes door to door from the serenity of the Poconos to your high-powered position in the heart of the financial district.””
Via helicopter?
“Haven’t you heard? The train is coming!”
I was wondering what that light was at the end of the tunnel.
164.Comrade Nom Deplume Says:
October 20th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
[160] Comrade confused,
You do know that such sarcasm will be deemed antisocial behavior, and you will be subject to re-education, after the Glorious November Revolution, don’t you?
Comrade Nom Deplume;
In similar times during Post Weimar Germanys Charismatic Orator, the following was true;
They came to take away the Jews and I said nothing because I was not a Jew.
They came to take away the Gypsys and I said nothing because I was not a Gypsy.
They came to take away the Homosexuals and I said nothing because I was not a Homosexual.
They came to take away the Catholics and I said nothing because I was not a Catholic.
Now they have come for me, and no one is left to speak.
History often repeats itself.
Stu/Gator,
If you are looking for an excuse to go to Florida:
RALLY SHUTTLE PARKING
FREE shuttles will be provided from the Citrus Bowl Stadium (1610 W Church Street) beginning at 1 pm.
From Amway Arena, take Hughey Avenue and go south to Church Street. Go west on Church Street and proceed towards the Florida Citrus Bowl Stadium.
Amway Arena North Staircase
RALLY LOCATION:
600 W. Amelia Street
Orlando, FL 32801
ADMISSION: FREE
GATES OPEN: 3:00 PM
PROGRAM BEGINS: 6:00 PM
GUEST ENTRANCE:
intersection of W. Amelia Street and Revere Avenue.
orlandovenues.net
RALLY FOR CHANGE WE NEED
With BA*RACK OB*AMA & HILLARY CLINTON
We don’t do Orlando, Shore. That might force Stu to visit with his dad. We try to limit our visits to S. Florida and the Swamp.
Not even for O and Hil? Think of it as a variation of the Great Schlep.
I don’t know if I can bring myself to step foot in the “Amway Arena”. And our family votes in NJ anyway.
I’ve seen the crowds that O has been able to attract to his rallies recently. I don’t think he has an urgent need for 2 extra bodies.
Yes, O’s recent rallies remind me of something Albert Speer might have put together in the ’30s.
#212
“[168] Skep,
Insightful? Wow. I have not received a compliment of that sort since 2004, when an assistant A.G. and a Federal Reserve lawyer both commended some ideas/analysis of mine as “brilliant.” (first and only times I have ever been called brilliant with a straight face).
That was a compliment, right?”
definitely a compliment.
#221
“Yes, O’s recent rallies remind me of something Albert Speer might have put together in the ’30s.”
Shore– I am not saying this to compare O to Hit-ler, because there is no comparison, but I have thought that O’s rallies reveal a tendency of Americans to get swept up in a movement that might not necessarily confine itself to positive movements. Americans are very PO’d at the state of things for a variety of reasons and I believe they are increasingly susceptible to radicalism
NJGator @ 1:10PM — RE factheck.org
No conflict of interest here…
“The APPC (Annenberg Political Fact Check) … is funded primarily by the Annenberg Foundation.”
http://www.factcheck.org/about
Qwerty…and the Annenbergs have endorsed McC.
Must stop feeding trolls.
Qwerty: You have just lost any credibility that I had formerly given you for pointing out a few things that I was not aware of. One can learn a lot from listening to an opposing view. You ought to try it some time. It will go far in keeping you from looking like an ignoramus.
Comrade Nom – Have you given any thoughts yet to your inaugural festivities?
Skep #223: These americans have sure picked one boring guy to be the leader of their radical movement.
Theo– not commenting on O himself, just the underlying tension he has tapped into. I think we may end up being lucky that a guy like him came along when he did, rather than an equally smooth politician who was far more radical.
scribe – great find on capital one and dollarsavings. many thanks.
[227] Comrade running mate Gator,
Yes, I was going to have something daytime and outdoors so I could fire up the grill, but there is still no patio furniture and no big screen TV. So I am now intending a smaller gathering, perhaps on a weekend afternoon so it can be kid-friendly.
Looking at the w/e of Nov. 1. Maybe the Gators will be on.
new proposed “stimulus” action. my guess is everything and the kitchen sink gets in:
“Democrats have also called for a moratorium on foreclosures and for making permanent a temporary increase lawmakers passed last February on loan limits for mortgages that may be backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration.
The temporary increase on those limits to $729,750 was intended to make mortgages in high-cost areas more affordable. Previously, any loan over $417,000 was subject to higher rates. Under current law, the loan limits will fall to $625,500 next year if no changes are made.
Democrats have also been pushing for a reinstatement of seller-paid down payment assistance, which was prohibited in a housing bill signed into law this summer. The Federal Housing Administration, which backs affordable loans for borrowers with low-income or less-than-stellar credit, has said down payment assistance leads to too many homeowners defaulting.
Democrats, however, have been proposing more restrictions be placed on the provision so that it would result in far fewer losses to the FHA.
Republicans would prefer that stimulus measures include more tax breaks than direct payments. Among them: a temporary reduction or elimination of the capital gains tax on stocks and lower income tax rates for companies that buy distressed assets.
House Republicans are also calling for purchasers of homes that are not primary residences to be entitled to the same capital gains exclusion as owners who sell their primary residences. Currently, a single homeowner can exclude $250,000 of capital gains on a sale, while couples can exclude $500,000.
The proposal would only apply to people who bought second or third properties over the next 18 months and held their properties for at least five years.”
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/20/news/economy/stimulus_take_two/?postversion=2008102017
Great read
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98769-our-coming-depression
Nom 231 – Lil Gator has a birthday party at noon on Sat 11/1. However, the Gators are indeed playing that day at 3:30 against Georgia, so it should definitely be televised.
Now for those of you not schooled in REAL -S.E.C. -college football, the Florida – Georgia game is billed as the World’s Largest Outdoor Czcktail Party, and is an excellent event to plan a party around.
Thain says … Cut Cut Cut
Merril starts their cuts in trading
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE49J8BP20081020
225 gator “Qwerty…and the Annenbergs have endorsed McC.
Must stop feeding trolls.”
Gator: Just google Annenberg and Bill Ayers (and O) and you get a good picture what sort of “neutral” organisation Annenberg Foundation is.
It reminds me of Media Matter factchecker that was established by H$llary people.. for some strange reason is not that active anymore..
I wonder what happened.
#49 gary,
Is he adopted? :)
Doesn’t sound at all like something you’d do.
#224 skeptic:Americans are very PO’d at the state of things for a variety of reasons…..
And a lot of it is their own fault.
Toilet Trouble
In my new rental grit keeps showing up in the bowl of the first floor toilet 30 minutes after flushing, and it keeps building up for hours after each flush.
Is this coming in from the water source and a filter needs to be installed, or is the septic tank failing (we have sandy soil)
Bairen,
That doesn’t sound good. I would insist on the LL getting a pro in to deal with it.
A good read on the Pa-lin factor:
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUKTRE49J6S820081020?sp=true
From the Star Ledger:
N.J. lawmakers could face $4B budget shortfall
State lawmakers, already preparing to trim $500 million from the current state budget, face a shortfall of up to $4 billion in the budget they will begin working on four months from now, Gov. Jon Corzine warned today.
“You’re going to see dramatic falloff in annual revenues,” Corzine said in a New York television appearance. “They’re going to require additional cuts. We can make a back-of-the-envelope judgment of say, three or four billion dollars, just to stay even. And that is a very, very heavy lift.”
Corzine’s projections echoed estimates made by state budget analysts during a special four-hour Senate hearing on the impact of Wall Street’s collapse on New Jersey’s economy.
During that hearing, financial experts predicted housing prices will continue to fall for another year, and that private sector job losses, which have totaled 18,700 so far this year, could exceed 263,000.
“It’s a bad, bad situation,” summarized James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.
“Economic wild parties are followed by prolonged economic hangovers,” he said. “We are now in the early hangover stage.”
From the Record:
NJ’s economy: Not waving, drowning
New Jersey taxpayers got another dose of bad news today as economists warned state legislators the current economic slowdown could last through 2011 — and that another 250,000 jobs are in jeopardy.
The Senate Budget Committee held a daylong hearing on the impact of the ongoing economic problems in New Jersey, taking testimony on the potential for revenue shortfalls, job losses and rising mortgage foreclosures.
James Hughes, dean of Rutgers University’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Public Policy and Planning, said past economic downturns provide a model for predicting the outcome of the current slowdown in New Jersey.
The more optimistic outlook would see recovery in March 2010 and the loss of 67,000 private-sector jobs. A less rosy possibility would see recovery stalled until February 2011 and 246,000 private-sector jobs lost.
“This is not a forecast, but simply a historical analogy,” Hughes said. “I don’t think those are unreasonable expectations.”
“The bottom line is fasten your economic seatbelts,” he said. “It’s going to be a long, bumpy ride.”
Shore Guy,
I think the LL is a bit clueless. He thinks we should just clean it. I keep telling him it’s not mold or growth since it shows up in minutes, not weeks. (He also bought at the peak. Says it all)
I have visions of the septic tank’s contents shooting out of that toilet like a fountain, or bursting and running down the hill and flooding our neighbor.
I’m going to send him an email so there’s some sort of documentation in case the you know what really does hit the ceiling fan.
245 Bairen
A certified letter is probably the better way to go so you can prove he got it.
David Goldman Says Housing Continues to `Erode’ Financial System
Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) — David Goldman, a private investor, and Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., talk with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene and Ken Prewitt about the Federal Reserve efforts to solve the credit crisis and the outlook for the U.S. banking system.
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Economics/On_Economy/vD9k45GxnX6c.mp3
Seeing alot of price increases on Coldwell-listed properties. So much for the home sale event.
If your home didn’t sell at a 10% discount, what makes you think it’ll sell for more?
The seller wake up call that wasn’t.
Go to minute 12…”there isn’t any NEXT THING…”
Let me correct that, only a small handful of sellers agreed to the 10% cut, most others were a few thousand, at best.
grumble grumble:
so bankrate gives ing (3 stars) the same rating as my credit union. and we know how well that’s working for ing…
and also three stars for emigrant savings bank, the parent of dollarsavingsdirect.
dude, next gtg, can we *please* form a credit union? i am serious. i’ll bring the homemade cookies and pawned jewelry, if someone else could be in charge of the guns?
#246 lost
I think you’re right.
Leaning towards email, followed by registered letter the next day.
Is every house and townhouse in NNJ a dump or has lots of infrastructure problems?
I’m thinking yes!
I use Apple bank of NY. They still get 4 stars and used to pay 5%. Now it only pays 2.75, but most of my cash is in TD Ameritrade making MM rates which is most-definitely worse. I just want to have it handy for the next panic.
My wife and I saw a house in Chatham in the Highlands MLS#: 2545595 which is listed for $949,000 (from $969k). Its been on the market almost 4 months and is an estate sale. The house needs a total updating as it had not been updated since the 1970s. The bathrooms and kitchens are badly in need of repair, let alone updating. The basement is raw space and they backyard is 20-25 feet wide of flat space before it slopes up into unusable (without major grading) land. We made an offer of $800K. The listing agent told us that there are three siblings who now own the house and they are not realistic in what they want for the house. The siblings look at 2005-2006 prices and believe the house would be worth 10-20% over the assessment (it was assessed in 2006) if it did not need the updates. We were told their bottom line was low 900s. She also said they have rejected several offers in the 650-800s. Needless to say this house sits. Thats a real problem these days, people think that its still 2006. In a town like Chatham which clearly is a good town, the sellers still try and overprice their homes and then are shocked when they dont sell. Supposedly things will be worse in the spring when inventory bloats and alot of wall streeters have been laid off or received no holiday bonus. Time will tell.
Thats a common tactic in the train line towns too. List it for $999K, then when it does not sell pull it down for a short time then relist for $1.199K and I guess they hope someone “lowballs” them at $950K. Its not working however.
last message was in response to #248
“What I found amazing is that, with very little practical knowledge in this area, I was telling my broker and my attorney how to do their jobs, and had to correct them on many occasions”
Comrade, switch out broker for nurse and attorney for Doctor and I would say the same for myself in the last 8 weeks, with my sister in the hospital for the first 4 from a botched gallbladder removal, and mistake on top of mistake, and me calling these doctors telling them they cut her bile duct, which they only admitted to in stages, and having to tell nurse after nurse what they forgot she was allergic to, and now my mother whose is currently in Kessler rehabing from brain surgery due to a terrible fall, both of these situations had instances of the most ridiculus blunders so easily seen with the laymen’s eyes.. frustration just is’nt a good enough word to describe it.
Comrade I feel your pain.
KL
To illustrate points made earlier …
This house in Whippany was purchased in Jan 2007 for $975,000.
Has been listed since 4/07/2008, the original price was $1,195,000.
It backs to Tiffany’s wharehouse off Rt 10.
I told the realtor that I hope he does earn 12.8% on his ‘2007 purchase.
Price reduced … to 1.1M
Lots of content, but worth the read. Keep it coming.
skep (212)-
Yes. Of course, we also have super-high taxes and job losses to help things along, too.
Shore (222)-
I heard Leni Riefenstahl was O’s photog before she died…
stu (227)-
Looks like Qwerty is in the running for the new village idiot here.
bairen (245)-
Did your landlord ever give you evidence that your deposit was being held in a designated account?
grim (248)-
Total non-event. The few sellers that participated in my area didn’t even cut their prices 10%.
Funny. The only houses I sell uniformly have to be at least 10% below previous comps before people even walk in the door.
Expect the next failure in RE to be Realogy, parent company of Clodwell Bunco.
alia (251)-
I can work the gun department.
Not sure how it bad it is in the are you’re practicing in but there is no way you should be putting up with that level of incompetence.
To Learn More League…