Rents fall across the country

From the Wall Street Journal:

Rents Fall Across U.S., Biggest Drops in New York City, Miami

Job losses took a heavy toll on the nation’s landlords last quarter, as rents fell across the country and vacancies jumped higher.

New York City took the biggest hit, according to numbers to be released Wednesday by research firm Reis Inc. Rent growth declined by 1.9% in New York, even though the city still has the nation’s tightest rental market, with vacancies at just 2.3%.

New York landlords have enjoyed big rent increases over the past few years, but that’s unlikely to continue in 2009. In the fourth quarter, three-quarters of multifamily buildings in the city exhibited negative rent growth, a big uptick from the past three quarters, when just 37% of properties saw negative rent growth, according to Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis. Today’s story in the WSJ —”Apartment Landlords Find What Goes Up, Does Come Down“— looks at how landlords are offering more incentives to keep apartments rented.

The Big Apple stands out among the cities that saw the biggest rent drops because it hasn’t been inundated by a glut of foreclosed homes or condos that have been converted to rentals. That “shadow supply” helps explain, in part, the 1.8% drop in rental growth in Miami or the 1.6% decline in Ventura County, Calif. Altogether, 56 of the 79 markets tracked by Reis had negative rental growth last quarter.

From Reuters:

Apartment rents show first decline in over 5 years

Average rents for U.S. apartments fell in the fourth quarter, as a sharp economic downturn and rising unemployment left Americans unwilling to pay higher prices, according to data released on Wednesday.

Rents fell 0.4 percent in the final quarter of 2008, the first decline since early 2003, the study by real estate research firm Reis Inc found.

The vacancy rate rose to 6.6 percent, a level last seen in the first quarter of 2005, and up from 5.7 percent a year earlier.

While few Americans typically move in the fourth quarter, as they face the onset of the northern hemisphere winter and several national holidays, the decline in rents shows that landlords are moving quickly to try to keep vacancies down, said Victor Calanog, director of research at Reis.

“The quantity of rental apartments might not be suffering as much, but the price paid by households to occupy those rental units is buckling under the strain, with landlords lowering asking rents and raising the amount of concessions they are willing to provide,” Calanog said.

From the Wall Street Journal:

Apartment Landlords Find What Goes Up, Does Come Down

The housing downturn started out as a boon to apartment landlords as troubled homeowners became renters again. But as the recession deepens, the good times for landlords are ending and many are offering concessions and discounts.

Figures to be released Wednesday by New York-based research firm Reis Inc. show that effective rents, which includes free rent and other landlord concessions, fell by 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2008, the first time that rents have fallen since early 2003. For 2008, rents increased by just 2.2%, down from 4.6% last year, and the nation’s apartment-vacancy rate rose nearly one percentage point to 6.6%.

“It’s now clear that apartments are going to take a much bigger hit than what most people initially expected,” says Hessam Nadji, a managing director at commercial real-estate brokerage Marcus & Millichap, which is set to release a separate report Wednesday projecting no growth in apartment rent for 2009.

Even cities that posted healthy rent increases in early 2008, including San Francisco, Seattle and New York, are no longer immune from the chill as job losses in the professional-services sector reduce demand for apartments. In periods of rising unemployment, would-be renters double up in apartments or move in with friends and families.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

149 Responses to Rents fall across the country

  1. BC Bob says:

    “Where are all the people living?”

    Tom [268], previous thread,

  2. Ben says:

    that’s because no one is renting. They are all buying houses! BUY NOW!

  3. Ben says:

    err wait… sorry about the previous post. Maybe they just temporarily moved back in with their parents like I did last week.

  4. Shore Guy says:


    Since the banks want to get those loans off their books and the more loans thay can originate, the more they can make from fees and points, if the aged-loans model comes to pass, I forsee banks not issuing loans unless the borrower can make a downpayment large enough to meet the “sell-off” threshold — that way it instantly (or close to, anyway) becomes a loan they can sell.

    276.Shore Guy says:
    January 8, 2009 at 3:03 pm

    Or a security badge that allows me into a “special” hanger at an unnamed Air FOrce base. Shhhhhh, and stay out of the pool, please.

  5. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. Nov. credit-card debt falls $2.8 billion, or 3.4%

    U.S. consumer debt paid down for third time in past 4 months

    U.S. Nov. consumer credit falls record $7.9 billion, or 3.7%

  6. Sean says:

    NO recovery I repeat NO Recovery grubbers, Grim you many want to use this one.

  7. grim says:

    With rents falling, incomes falling, credit tightening and unemployment rising, all of the traditional/fundamental factors that drive home prices are now in decline.

    What floor?

  8. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Consumer credit drops record $7.9 billion

    U.S. households paid down a record $7.9 billion in consumer debt in November, the third month in the past four in which they paid off more debt than they took on, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

    Consumer debt fell $7.9 billion to a seasonally adjusted $2.57 trillion in November, a 3.7% annualized decline. It’s the largest percentage decline in nearly 11 years and is the largest decline ever in dollar terms.

    The figures from the Fed do not include debts backed by real estate, such as mortgages or home equity lines of credit.

    Debt had exploded in recent years, rising 27% since 2003. Debt fueled an unsustainable pace of consumer spending, which the country is now repaying in the form of the most severe recession in generations.

    With banks increasingly unwilling to lend to anyone, consumers are raising their savings rate and deleveraging in the face of large losses in their net worth due to plunging house and equity prices.

  9. grim says:

    #8 – And this, friends, is how America regains her strength.

  10. sas says:

    rent fall.. but at this point in time its still a “so what?”

    yes, its a turn.

    however, rents have to drop further in order to drive people back to RE.

    that won’t happen for sometime.

    still a mexican standoff, but the gap has turned, for sure.


  11. Stu says:


    Normally I would herald the drop in consumer debt as it typically means there will be an uptick in the national consumer’s savings rate. Unfortunately, with nothing to invest in besides the continued decline in the world economy, I can only translate these numbers as not terribly encouraging at all. Of course, the strategy our elders have chosen to revive the economy looks to be achieving the exact opposite of what they intended. Or perhaps what they say they intend is bread and circus’ and their real strategy is to deflate our debt at any cost.

    It pains me to watch our world circle the drain, but there’s always the Playstation 2 or the Nintendo Wii to rescue us from our mental depression. Though, I fear that there is nothing to save us from the impending economic depression.

  12. sas says:

    i think I wrote that backwards, you get the drift.


  13. reinvestor101 says:

    Now, these guys know what they’re doing over there in South Korea. I’ve told you guys repeatedly to stop this negative talk with the latest being sas and Kettle. Keep it up hear? Both of you are readying your cell in the slammer.

    SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean prosecutors have detained a self-styled financial market prophet who had a large following on the Internet but whose gloomy predictions upset the government battling an economic slump, they said on Thursday.

    As South Korean markets tumbled late last year amid the global downturn, the main financial regulator warned it would crack down on what it considered malign rumours and some economic analysts say they have come under pressure from officials not to voice negative views on the economy.

    “Minerva, a 30-year-old suspect, was detained on suspicion of spreading false information,” a senior prosecutor at the Seoul District Central Prosecutors’ Office told Reuters, identifying the man only by his Internet name but giving no details of the allegations.

    In his blog, Minerva — who has never revealed his identity — had said he once worked in the financial field in the United States. The prosecutor said he was currently jobless, and they would not identify unless charges were laid.

    He became a household name last year for his predictions of sharp falls in the won and local stock market and the collapse of the U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers. The South Korean currency fell 28 percent last year and the main share index slumped 40 percent.

    He later stopped making predictions, saying the authorities had muzzled his blog which attracted hundreds of thousands of visitors.

    South Korea detains financial “prophet of doom”

    The manager of one brokerage firm in Seoul, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject, said Minerva had become influential enough to deter some investors from buying South Korean shares.

  14. sas says:

    “It pains me to watch our world circle the drain”

    nonsense bloke,
    alot of opportunity out there, put on your thinking cap and rediscover yourself.


  15. sas says:

    “South Korean”

    bloke, I schooled south korea it wasn’t even funny. nothing thta comes out of the country persuades me.


  16. Stu says:


    You wreak of fascism.

  17. grim says:

    Unemployment claims up big in Jersey this week, up 7,330.

    State supplied comment:

    Layoffs in the construction, service, transportation, warehousing, public administration, and manufacturing industries.

  18. Stu says:

    “alot of opportunity out there, put on your thinking cap and rediscover yourself.”

    Good for me, not for most of everyone else bloke. Would much rather see a balance between me and the world.

  19. RentinginNJ says:

    What are the odds on Christie actually winning this thing?

    Are people finally fed up enough with the status quo to try something different?
    Or, is Corzine and the union machine simply impossible to beat? Are their pockets simply too deep and are there just too many people on the public dole to actually get Christie elected (or someone else)?

  20. reinvestor101 says:

    No I love my country and don’t like it when people talk negative about it. South Korea would never allow someone like Roubini to say the stuff he says without being detained. Same thing applies to your hero Peter Schiff

    Stu says:
    January 8, 2009 at 3:30 pm

    You wreak of fascism.

  21. House Hunter says:

    ok…this is my take: CITI is the government…the bailout money is going to support actual mortgage write downs

  22. sas says:

    “stop this negative talk with the latest being sas”

    neg talk?
    i do not engage in such activity.
    this is a balderdash statement.


  23. John says:

    NY Muni of the day!

    CUSIP 64971CSR6
    Quantity Available 65,000
    Min Order Size 10,000
    Order Multiple 5,000
    Settlement Date 01/13/2009
    Call Date 02/08/2009
    Call Price 101.000
    Yield to Call 46.91 %
    Yield to Maturity* 6.786 %

  24. reinvestor101 says:

    Please. You and Kettle have been trying to scare the hell out of everyone with this talk about the black economy and the CIA. You need to be detained without delay

    sas says:
    January 8, 2009 at 3:40 pm
    “stop this negative talk with the latest being sas”

    neg talk?
    i do not engage in such activity.
    this is a balderdash statement.


  25. reinvestor101 says:


    You’re the first one that needs to be detained. Talk about the black economy is a negative

  26. Jersey Jim says:

    grim says:
    January 8, 2009 at 2:44 pm
    Interesting piece out of LA, courtesy of CR. We talked about this topic on a number of occasions.

    Which way will rents be going?

    Some insight.

    We just had a tenant move out of our house on Oahu in Hawaii. Lucky for us we have a good property manager who found a new tenant in the winter. He is working on the new rent price but we will probably end up taking a $200 price reduction per month from what we were getting. The house isn’t much to look at- single wall construction- but it is in Hawaii.

  27. grim says:

    From Reuters:

    NY Fed says bought $10.2 billion in MBS Jan 5-7

    The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said it bought $10.2 billion in mortgage-backed securities this week as it launched a program to lower home borrowing costs.

    The purchases are part of a $500 billion program announced by the central bank in November as a way to help stabilize the U.S. housing market, which has entered its third year of a downturn. The MBS — issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae — have rallied since the Fed announcement, sending yields that influence consumer rates sharply lower.

    The average fixed 30-year mortgage rate dropped for a 10th consecutive week as of Thursday, to 5.01 percent, the lowest since at least 1971, according to a Freddie Mac survey.

  28. reinvestor101 says:

    BACK in September a message appeared on an online bulletin board owned by Daum, the most popular web host in a country, South Korea, with a huge internet culture. Written by someone called “Minerva”, it predicted the imminent collapse of Lehman Brothers, a now-defunct investment bank.

    Wild speculation is normally disregarded, but when it proved to be right just five days later, a prophet was born. Word raced through the “netizen” community, and when Minerva went on to predict that the Korean won would fall against the dollar by around 50 won a day in the first half of the week of October 6th, his followers began to watch the currency markets in anticipation. The won did indeed fall by about that much over the next three days.

    Minerva became an internet phenomenon, with 40m-odd hits to date. Web-users combed through previous posts, looking for prognostications, and clues about his identity. Sharp comments on the state of the Korean economy and government policy only increased his standing. The media now call him “the Internet Economic President”.

    The administration of President Lee Myung-bak is frequently accused of authoritarianism by opponents, so it came as little surprise when the finance minister, Kang Man-soo, admitted that officials had attempted to uncover the blogger’s identity.

  29. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Roubini sees house prices falling through mid-2010

  30. Stu says:

    “New York Fed purchases
    $10.2 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities”


  31. John says:

    Roubini sees house prices falling through mid-2010 and NYU tuition rising forever.

  32. John says:

    Citigroup new CD rates, welcome to the jungle.

    Term APY* as of 1/09/09
    1 Month 0.75%
    2 Month 0.80%
    3 Month 1.00%
    6 Month 1.50%
    7 Month 1.30%
    8 Month 1.35%
    9 Month 1.70%
    1 Year 2.10%

  33. skep-tic says:

    mentioned this in the previous thread… I think bankruptcy is the least-worst alternative for the banks in terms of allowing for mortgage writedowns. It is individualized and cumbersome. Much better than if the O-Team just said all mortgage principal must be written down. My guess is banks are agreeing to this to avoid something worse

  34. Tom says:

    “with nothing to invest in besides the continued decline in the world economy”


    I decided to buy a used pickup and invest in discarded mattresses.

    I figure people have to be putting their money somewhere and occasionally people will forget and toss their old mattresses out on the curb without making a withdrawal :)

  35. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Roubini forecasts recession will last 2 years

    The U.S. recession will last two full years, with gross domestic product falling a cumulative 5%, said Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini was one of the first economists to predict the recession and the credit crunch stemming from the housing bubble. For 2009, Roubini predicts GDP will fall 3.4%, with declines in every quarter of the year. The unemployment rate should peak at about 9% in early 2010, he said. Consumer prices will fall about 2% in 2009. Housing prices will probably overshoot, dropping 44% from the peak through mid-2010. “The U.S. economy cannot avoid a severe contraction that has already started and the policy response will have only a limited and delayed effect that will be felt more in 2010 than 2009,” he said.

  36. grim says:

    Some of the cramdown details, from CNBC:

    1) Only mortgages entered into prior to the date of enactment of the bill would be eligible for the treatment. All loans, and not just subprime, are eligible.

    2) Borrowers have to show they made a “good faith” attempt to work with the lender before considering this bankruptcy provision. Bankruptcy cannot be the first option, and borrowers have to prove it wasn’t.

    3) Bankruptcy judges can strip away a lender’s credit or rights if they violated the Truth in Lending Act or other state and federal laws.

  37. Tom says:

    2.1% for a 1year CD? You can easily find a regular savings account that pays more.

  38. grim says:

    Citi? Why do you need depositor funds when you have the Fed, the Treasury, and most importantly, the TARP?

  39. BC Bob says:

    “Talk about the black economy is a negative”


    Well, the world is turning into a deep black hole. All currencies are being debased for the benefit of welfare. The end result, many trapped in poverty and fear. Handouts to the greedy and irresponsible is fostering deep anger and resentment. Debt lovers are being bailed out while savers are penalized. Yes, the world has turned dark. Is your paper prtoecting you?

  40. Stu says:

    I can only image how insolvent the banks are to agree to these cramdowns.

    It is mind boggling.

  41. Stu says:

    I think as we enter 2010, most of us are going to wonder if it would have been a betterto have just ripped off the adhesive bandage rather than to leave it in place until the festering infected wound requires nothing less than amputation due to gangrene.

  42. grim says:

    Bergen has got 254 Sheriff Sales on the docket for January:

    Total judgement amount: $108,773,776.10

    Some nice homes..

    Address/Town/Judgement Amount
    79 OLGE RD. OLD TAPPAN 1351133.74
    275 CANTERBURY DRIVE RAMSEY 1176763.82
    131 HUDSON COVE EDGEWATER 1169915.35
    13 ARTHUR COURT CLOSTER 1040435.46
    198 SHEWSBURY COURT MAHWAH 870541.48
    15 DOGWOOD LANE EMERSON 854457.60
    54 FAIRVIEW AVE. CLOSTER 849623.85
    71 BENTON ROAD PARAMUS 834009.90
    709 BLANCH AVENUE NORWOOD 804679.75
    405 BURNET PL PARAMUS 781260.70
    570 FALETTI WAY RIVER VALE 762380.01
    651 GROVE AVE. CLIFFSIDE PARK 713993.41
    1061 LAKE DRIVE FRANKLIN LAKES 684895.53
    227 STATE ROUTE 5 FORT LEE 684002.27
    1006 CLOSTER DOCK ROAD CLOSTER 683707.53

  43. Nicholas says:

    This is the most informative information I have seen on housing to date.

  44. BC Bob says:

    Stu [41],

    The large banks are dead. The fed would be better served to feed the regional’s, let them lever. The large banks will continue to hoard, trying desperately to recoup losses. It’s a losing battle.

  45. kettle1 says:


    1/8/09 Madoff Exposure Spreads to Labor Union Pension Funds

    CNBC has learned that one union, the Carpenters local in Syracuse, N.Y., has lost the majority of the $100 million to $150 million it had in pension money because of its dealings with Madoff, people close to the matter said.


  46. kettle1 says:

    looks like spain is set to implode in 2009,

    look at the growth in unemployment. They are expected to approach 20% this year

  47. Victorian says:

    Damn! Just met Jose Molina outside my office building. Pity did not have anything on me to get an autograph.

  48. Stu says:

    Here is my dilemma. Will there be enough federal tax revenue to cover the cost of the debt destruction since I expect the old flight to safety that the US used to be is nearing an end. Why would anyone buy our treasuries if it appears that we are no more sturdier than an emerging market economy?

  49. kettle1 says:


    After reading the the info from the seeking alpha article posted in todays earlier thread, i would actually push my deflation end date to 2012-2013. I actually forgot to consider the option arm wave of resets. a few other factors as well, but thats the quick and dirty of it.

  50. BC Bob says:

    “Damn! Just met Jose Molina outside my office building.”

    vic [48],

    Challenge him to a race, we’ll lay the odds.

  51. Sean says:

    A senior US diplomat warned that Nato might have to intervene in the Ukraine/Europe Gas Crisis.

    Getting dicey now…

  52. kettle1 says:


    the FED will buy the securities. but that is also the end game of the current path. I do expect to see the Fed given congressional authority to issue its own debt. Once it does that it can really start to play a devaluing game.

  53. Nicholas says:


    If the US government can artificially hold rates low enough then the ARM reset wave will come and go. Of course unemployment and speculation are causing early defaults on these types of loans but the massive resets that we were fearing will just be pushed into the future.

    I would still be concerned about ARM resets if interest rates climb or libor goes back to being out of control.

  54. BC Bob says:

    “looks like spain is set to implode in 2009,”


    I lost my bet, my call was for 08′

  55. Nicholas says:

    Sorry for the Rick Roll everyone, I couldn’t resist :)

  56. Tom says:


    The recently rescheduled some. A couple of days ago there were around 330 foreclosures in bergen county that were scheduled for Jan 2009.

    November and December also had a lot more but it looks like they pushed many of them back till after the holidays.

    Already some moved to other months and that will probably continue.

  57. Frank says:

    Did NYC commercial building values drop 60%?

    The NY Post story from Tuesday talks about the possible sale of 1540 Broadway to an all cash bid of $375-400 a Square Foot.

    This is the sale history of the property and the p/sq ft valuations over that time. Something to think about in respect to where are valuations…..

    Very interesting history on the 44-story, 1.1mm sf office tower:

    1)Paramount Group buys for $400mm in 2004 ($363.6 PSF)

    2)Paramount Group sells to EOP/Lehman for $820mm in 5/06 ($745.5 PSF) +105%

    3)EOP sells entire office portfolio to Blackstone for $39bb

    4)Macklowe buys 7-prop NY EOP portfolio for $7.3BB ($1,123 PSF) +51%

    5)Deutsche take back portfolio from Macklowe Deutsche has offer to buy 1540 for $412.5mm to $467.5mm in 1/09 ($375 to $425 PSF) -62.2% to 66%

  58. kettle1 says:

    Nick 54,

    Even if rates are kept low it is still possible to see a huge wave of jingle mail as people realize that their homes are underwater by 30-50%. that combined with unemployment may make low rates a somewhat irrelevant factor

  59. grim says:

    If the US government can artificially hold rates low enough then the ARM reset wave will come and go.

    Unfortunately, this won’t apply to most negam and teaser arms.

  60. sas says:

    “Talk about the black economy is a negative”

    i don’t think its a neg talk…its reality.
    there are 3 economys always in play (and overlap to a certain degree):

    1) real economy (ex. i buy a ford from a plant made in the states)

    2) bubble economy (ex. dot com, RE, speculations)

    3) black economy (whitecollar crime, madoff, laundering, tax havens via Ivy league endowments, drug money i.e Grasso maken love to the FARC)

    thats the facts of life.
    i don’t play tidlewinks.


  61. james says:

    Hey Folks,

    For those seeking independence from foreign oil please support the Pickens Plan. I have provided a link for more information and sign up instructions.

  62. kettle1 says:


    DO you think ireland makes to 2011? my guess is ireland hits the wall in late 2009 or early 2010

  63. Nicholas says:

    I agree but not as bad as the subprime crisis has been though is what I’m thinking.

    I remember a while back there was a Merill Lynch presentation that showed the default rates for the ARMS made in 2005-2006 and they were anticipating around 35% total defaults in that subsection of loans. There was a piece of that subsection that defaulted even before the rate reset that was fairly significant but not as high as subprime has been. I guess that is where I got the opinion that if the FED can hold down the rates then the resultant whiplash from the mortgage crisis would be muted.

  64. HEHEHE says:

    Questions re the cramdown joke:

    1) How can the government and Citibank negotiate away contract rights over which they have no control, namely MBS investors

    2) If the government essentially owns Citibank how is there any negotiation?

  65. Nicholas says:

    Anyone have any data that shows what percentage of ARM loans consist of teaser and negam?

  66. BC Bob says:

    kettle [47],

    Spain has an upcoming treasury auction. Did anybody say Germany?

  67. sas says:

    black economy

    weapons and military aid flip flops btw black & real.

    you don’t think people are doing the high 5 on the way to a bank everytime a bomb drops on some local yocals head?

    you don’t think to avoid press and to do a back door deal, its not black?

    you don’t think black money was funnel to RE and back again? if not, perhaps walk along the “gold coast”, i’m sure you might meet some people whom will tell you otherwise… then take you to the meadowlands w/ a shovel.

    but hey, what do i know?
    i haven’t left Lodi since 77.


  68. sas says:


  69. lostinny says:

    I’m so glad rent in NY are coming down. Meanwhile the rent stabilization board voted for increases in October. My downstairs neighbor said he’s going to tell management he’s not paying the increase. I’d love to hear that conversation.

  70. BC Bob says:

    “DO you think ireland makes to 2011?”


    Funny, they also have a treasury auction coming up. If these go down the same path as Germany, watch out.

  71. grim says:

    December sales data scheduled to be posted at 6pm, check back tonight!

  72. sas says:

    “December sales data scheduled to be posted at 6pm, check back tonight!”

    can i TiVo it?

    ha ha

  73. kettle1 says:


    Spain has an upcoming treasury auction. Did anybody say Germany?

    you think it will go that well????

    Investors took up just two thirds of a €6bn (£5.6bn) sale of 10-year Bunds, leading to consternation in the markets. Bund price dropped sharply as the yield jumped 34 basis points to 3.29pc, with copy-cat moves by bonds across the eurozone

  74. grim says:

    Another ponzi scheme. From Reuters:

    Government charges 82-year-old man with mail fraud:SEC

    The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Justice Departmen says 82-year-old New York state man, Richard Piccoli, was charged with mail fraud linked to alleged Ponzi scheme.

    * Say Piccoli operated fraudulent investment scheme through his business, Gen-See Capital Corp.

    * Say Piccoli took in at least $17 million in investment funds since 2004.

    * Say SEC is seeking a court order to freeze the assets of Piccoli and Gen See Capital Corp.

    * Say Piccoli allegedly guaranteed investors an annual return of 7.1 percent in advertisements in Catholic newspapers throughout the United States by investing money in discounted real estate mortgages but review of his bank records show no such investments.

  75. sas says:

    and if you don’t think the $ from your 401k or pension funds goes into supporting the black economy…ha ha ha.

    they have a symbiotic relationship.

    man, i really need to goto the next GTG and give an education. and also to call out the “lurker”.


  76. sas says:

    “Another ponzi scheme”

    what did i say? the shakeout is far from over.

    but with ponzi, ask yourself:
    1) a return to free markets due to lack of trust
    2) economical warfare

    some please let me know I don’t talk to myself on these boards? otherwise, i will retire.


  77. kettle1 says:

    Spains primary industries (housing, cars, tourism and fishing) are all toast. the housing is done, europe is seeing similar drops is auto sales, no one can afford to travel. there are no food stamps in Spain, or other safety net, when unemployment benefit ends ………..

  78. Clotpoll says:

    Rent (19)-

    I think Christie is DOA. This state is too corrupt, too far gone and has way too many people dependent on the dole to turn around.

    It will be entertaining, though.

  79. reinvestor101 says:

    What?? You don’t play tiddlywinks?? No, you just try to scare the bejesus out of everyone who reads your posts and it needs to stop.

    I can’t wait till you get detained for this. This is not something you ought to be be talking about.

    sas says:
    January 8, 2009 at 4:22 pm
    “Talk about the black economy is a negative”

    i don’t think its a neg talk…its reality.
    there are 3 economys always in play (and overlap to a certain degree):

    1) real economy (ex. i buy a ford from a plant made in the states)

    2) bubble economy (ex. dot com, RE, speculations)

    3) black economy (whitecollar crime, madoff, laundering, tax havens via Ivy league endowments, drug money i.e Grasso maken love to the FARC)

    thats the facts of life.
    i don’t play tidlewinks.


  80. kettle1 says:


    we hear you and appreciate the interesting comments….

    economic warfare? yes. but i think we are about to see the rise of whatever comes after capitalism. not tomorrow or next year but in the next 1 or 2 decades as economically and socially devastated nations look for a new promise of prosperity after their capitalistic dreams were crushed by global depression

  81. reinvestor101 says:

    You are talking to yourself. This is another isolated incident. The guy only got 17 million–no big deal

    sas says:
    January 8, 2009 at 4:41 pm
    “Another ponzi scheme”

    what did i say? the shakeout is far from over.

    but with ponzi, ask yourself:
    1) a return to free markets due to lack of trust
    2) economical warfare

    some please let me know I don’t talk to myself on these boards? otherwise, i will retire.


  82. reinvestor101 says:

    Chi is right. You are the most negative cuss on this board. I’ve not read one positive post from you ever.

    kettle1 says:
    January 8, 2009 at 4:45 pm

    we hear you and appreciate the interesting comments….

    economic warfare? yes. but i think we are about to see the rise of whatever comes after capitalism. not tomorrow or next year but in the next 1 or 2 decades as economically and socially devastated nations look for a new promise of prosperity after their capitalistic dreams were crushed by global depression

  83. Sean says:

    More Muni advice for John courtesy of some unnamed Internet Blogger.

    Many cities and counties have invested in synthetic collateralized debt obligations.

    In essence a synthetic CDO is an insurance policy whereby the city or county insures a group (usually 100 or more) corporations against the occurence of a “credit event”. The city or county receives a premium payment each year for the insurance they provide to the corporations and they consider this as investment income.

    The liability of the city or county is almost unlimited if a substantial number of corporations have a credit event. Many, many of the corporations insured by the synthetic CDOs held by cities and counties are experiencing credit events. In virtually every case where this occurs the city or county will go bankrupt.

    Typically, it only takes about eight credit events of the 100 corporations in a synthetic CDO for the holder (city or county) to go bankrupt.

    The long and the tall of it is: You do not want to be holding a bond for any governmental entity which owns a synthetic CDO.

  84. ricky_nu says:

    check out NJMLS #2900645
    upper saddle river nj

    Sold in 2008 for $740k, renovation flip gone flop

    current ask = $779k (I guess to cover the brokerage)


    Good luck…..

  85. kettle1 says:


    you make me smile :)

    thanks for brightening my day!

  86. ricky_nu says:

    starting to see cracks in even the most blue of “blue chip” towns

  87. kettle1 says:


    NPR did a piece on a school district that got into a synthetic CDO and is now suing to get out of it after multiple credit events are threatening to wipe them out.

  88. Clotpoll says:

    sas (77)-

    Down, boy.

    You’re being read here. I just think a lot of folks never saw this kind of stuff before and are kinda freaking out.

  89. Clotpoll says:

    vodka (78)-

    Permanent siesta.

  90. John says:

    great story about that op muni fund that blew up we were talking about in December

  91. John says:

    Bond Insurers Jump On Obama Plan For Muni-Bond Mkt BackstopPROVIDED BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc. – 5:01 PM 01/08/2009
    Bond insurer stocks jumped Thursday, with shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) surging as much as 31% as President-elect Barack Obama’s transition team proposed a program to provide a funding backstop for the $2.7 trillion municipal-bond market.

    Ambac’s shares hit an intra-day high of $1.75, where the stock had not traded in a month. The company’s shares closed up 13% to $1.52, while Assured Gauranty Ltd. (AGO) also ended up 13% to $12.46 and MBIA Inc. (MBI) closed up 12% to $ 5.61.

  92. kettle1 says:


    correct me if i am wrong, but by being part of the EU, Germany is in a similar situation as a US state and cannot readily print its way out of the problem like the US gov can…

  93. Tom says:

    “Another ponzi scheme”

    Almost everything that made money during the bubble was a ponzi scheme!

    The housing market was a ponzi scheme.

    So much of our economy was reliant on the housing market to fund the rest of the economy.

    The rate of growth many people were seeing in many areas were unnatural and unsustainable to be legitimate. But since people saw these miraculous rates of returns everywhere, they thought they were normal. In fact if you had a “normal” growth rate, you were underperforming in most people’s minds.

    What bothers me the most… this morning I was watching CSpan and they were talking about our national debt and how it has increased dramatically. With all the money that was being made, you would have thought our gov’t would have been able to pay down some of this debt.

    Just like these idiots that didn’t bank any of their profits during the housing bubble and are now complaining that the party is over and they don’t have anything left (who will remain nameless).

  94. comrade nom deplume says:

    [79] Clot,

    If Christie runs, this election will be another canary in the coal mine moment. Provided he doesn’t get bloodied in a primary, or has a major series of gaffes in the election, there are two things to watch for:

    1. How vociferously the unions, community activists and the rest of the left attack him; and
    2. If he wins or loses.

    These will provide valuable insight into the makeup of the NJ voter. If he loses, especislly if he loses big, it means that the groups that perenially suck at the taxpayer’s teat are firmly in control, and it is a sell signal for the state. If he wins, but barely, we are in for continued stasis. If he wins decisively, it will put the left back on its heels a bit, and we could have a Guliani type of renissance in Trenton.

  95. Sean says:

    kettle1 – Ireland is in a depression already, and my cousin who is in the military is very busy preparing he works in the bomb disposal unit.

    Another cousin who works as a nurse said the rate of overdoses and other self-inflicted injuries suffered when attempting suicide is up.

  96. HEHEHE says:


    Could not sum it up better. If Christie runs and loses it’s is time for anyone in their right mind to pack it up and leave.

  97. Sean says:

    re: #95 “Guliani type of renissance’

    The Billy club type I hope.

  98. kettle1 says:

    careful sean,

    you are being too negative!!!!!

  99. HEHEHE says:

    “Just like these idiots that didn’t bank any of their profits during the housing bubble and are now complaining that the party is over and they don’t have anything left”

    Federal, state, local governments all threw the money away. The property and “income” tax revenue was a politicians wet dream.

  100. kettle1 says:

    re christie

    do they riot and burn trenton either way?

  101. Nicholas says:

    I heard an NPR piece yesterday that said that the number of reported suicides didn’t pick up during the last Depression.

    My guess is that social stigma during that time went strongly against labeling someone as committing suicide and they would rule the death accidental. Maybe that because the law on insurance has changed to not cover self-inflicted wounds we are seeing more and more people correctly classified as suicides then before this time around.

  102. comrade nom deplume says:

    [101] kettle

    That could only help property values in Trenton. I used to work at the USDC, and the area nearby was referred to as Beiruit.

  103. Tom says:

    “do they riot and burn trenton either way?”

    How will we tell when they do?

  104. kettle1 says:


    do we need to start putting cow catchers on NE corridor trains?

  105. kettle1 says:

    How will we tell when they do?

    a decrease in crime?

  106. Nicholas says:


    On the topic of economic warfare I’m a believer but just not on the scale that you seem to be putting forth.

    Economic warfare == we are rich and your brightest, hardest working people migrate here.

    Economic warfare == We put stern warnings about doing any financial transactions with so US Banks wont trade with them out of fear, hamstringing .

    Economic warfare == We pour millions of dollars into infrastructure of countries that do what we like and turn the fire hose off for those that do things we don’t like.

    If you are saying that we created the housing bubble to destroy the global economy your wrong. If you say that China continued to pump 1/7th of their entire annual GDP into the US for many years then stopped as an act of Economic sabotage your wrong.

  107. comrade nom deplume says:

    [97] HEHE

    Or time to get that “tax haven” apartment in Bucks County, which will be the “home” of about sixty or so NJREReport bloggers.

  108. Nicholas says:

    Damn hypertext ate my middle Economic Warfare comment.

    Economic Warfare == We put stern warning about doing any financial transactions with “insert country” so US banks wont trade with them out of fear, hamstringing “insert country”.

  109. Sean says:

    re: #102 Nicholas – back then the 30’s the church would not bury you in their graveyard if you committed suicide, hense the reclassifcation and besides I don’t think they could detect overdoses quite the same way they do today with a simple bood test.

    My 96 year old grandma shared a few stories with me about the depression in the Midwest. Things were harsh and record keeping in general was bad, I would not be surprised if allot of people went missing back then and were never accounted for. I know of a few distant relatives who drank themselves to death and that was not classified as a suicide either.

  110. Nicholas says:

    My father and mother grew up during the depression. It is very wierd to get first hand accounts.

    My father only told me lies about the depression. My mother revealed the awful truth.

    We can only pray that it doesn’t get that bad.

  111. Doyle says:

    Re: Ireland

    There was an artical in the Times this week about how bad things are getting there. They referred to a Pajama Indicator or Index in Limerick, one of the hardest hit / poorest cities. Meaning, you can tell how bad things are getting by the number of mothers you see dropping their kids off, and picking up from school while still in their PJ’s. As more and more Mom’s feel no need to get out of their pajamas by 3p, you can tell there is no work and things are getting real bad.

    Paraphrasing, but you get the idea…

  112. Nicholas says:

    My father grew up in Iowa.

  113. Doyle says:

    Make that “article”…

  114. comrade nom deplume says:

    [105] Kettle

    Won’t help. Trains go so fast that you don’t make it under the wheels. And you get just as dead.

    Just over a year ago, I was on a train heading to Philly one night and someone jumped in front of it in Leavittown. Train had to stay there and we were put onto an overcrowded train that had already picked up another broken train’s passengers. SRO to Philly and a 1 hour ride became a 5.5 hour ride.

    Freakin’ miserable. Guy left a note and it was in the paper but we never knew why. Just that it was due to a business setback.

  115. kettle1 says:


    cow catcher isnt to save the person, its to keep the train from derailing….. its to save you, the passenger

  116. kettle1 says:


    always figured that if you are going to do it, death by train is probably one of the best methods. hard to mess that one up

  117. reinvestor101 says:

    We’ll see about that. I intend to wipe that little grin off your face.

    Unbeknownst to you until now, I’ve been lobbying the government to follow the Korean example and begin preventative detentions of certain bloggers here. Guess what? You made the list of the most egregiously negative posters here that are subject to detention:

    1) Pat
    2) Kettle
    2) sas (tied with Kettle)
    3) Clotpoll
    4) Clotpoll’s dog (the damn mutt he uses to patrol the perimeter of his house to keep out imaginary gubmit agents)

    kettle1 says:
    January 8, 2009 at 4:48 pm

    you make me smile :)

    thanks for brightening my day!

  118. comrade nom deplume says:

    [117] kettle

    I knew that, just being sarcastic. Trains were lighter back then. And there is a catcher, or plow, of sorts on locomotives, to keep things from getting under the train.

    Based on what I remember hearing underneath our coach, the jumper made it under (shiver).

  119. comrade nom deplume says:

    [119] re

    Lighten up Francis.

  120. reinvestor101 says:

    5. comrade no name. (damn commie)

    comrade nom deplume says:
    January 8, 2009 at 5:42 pm
    [119] re

    Lighten up Francis.

  121. comrade nom deplume says:


    Commie? Moi?

    You obviously haven’t been paying attention!

    Stu and Schabadoo think I am the second coming of Mussolini!

  122. big fan says:

    John says:
    January 8, 2009 at 10:00 am

    JPMorgan Chase & Co. is advertising 30-year mortgages as low as 4.75 percent on its Web site, Wells Fargo & Co. has an offer for 4.875 percent and Bank of America Corp. has rates at 5 percent. The offers are for borrowers with excellent credit who put 20 percent down.

    one of the guys who got 4.875 here. was nervous about it dipping lower, but locked in just so i could quit stressing about it.

  123. comrade nom deplume says:


    But you can think of me as Sgt. Hulka.

  124. reinvestor101 says:

    Look, it’s bad enough that you’re proclaiming your communist tendencies with this “comrade” handle, don’t further complicate your situation by being a wiseass. We’re just talking simple detention right now, but that very well could easily move to a trip the damn waterboard. Watch yourself.

    comrade nom deplume says:
    January 8, 2009 at 5:46 pm

    But you can think of me as Sgt. Hulka.

  125. Essex says:

    77. SAS….naw man…between you and clotpoll I bleeve I have a better handle on the world at large….stick around and scare the pants off of me and the rest of the crew.

    The problem with America is threefold:

    1. Most of us were raised by idiots and therefore are in turn…complete morons.

    2. Many of us lack the basic skills to treat others with enough respect and tough love to create lasting relationships and we waddle in and out of life like zombies.

    3. We are soft bellied fools and overweight imbeciles and the rest of the world is tired of our crap.

  126. Essex says:

    126…shut up stupid.

  127. reinvestor101 says:

    6. Essex

  128. Essex says:

    I am on a few people’s lists….join the club douchebag.

  129. Essex says:

    The chickens are coming home to roost people….the end will not be pretty.

  130. lostinny says:

    Radical cheap: $1,000 homes
    The real estate market is so awful that buyers are now scooping up homes for as little as $1,000.

  131. HEHEHE says:

    “The chickens are coming home to roost people….the end will not be pretty.”

    I agree, but who is buying stocks these days where the market keeps closing up or flat?

  132. Essex says:

    89. Of course people are freaking out….it is about time….our lazy asses need to stand up and scream….

  133. Essex says:

    133. Absolutely no idea. I am not an expert on stocks — I have only been following the market since about 1995 — I went through two IPOs that were complete crap and walked away with about what I had when I started…I have made a couple of good calls over the years which helped us to buy our first home….

    my gut tells me greed and ambition in the market is still there and folks will continue to buy on the dip. Good Luck.

  134. Essex says:

    Lee Iacocca says:

    ‘Am I the only guy in this country who’s fed up with what’s happening? Where the hell is our outrage? We should be screaming bloody murder! We’ve got a gang of clueless bozos steering our ship of state right over a cliff, we’ve got corporate gangsters stealing us blind, and we can’t even clean up after a hurricane much less build a hybrid car. But instead of getting mad, everyone sits around and nods their heads when the politicians say, ‘Stay the course.’

    Stay the course? You’ve got to be kidding. This is America, not the damned, ‘Titanic’. I’ll give you a sound bite: ‘Throw all the bums out!’

    You might think I’m getting senile, that I’ve gone off my rocker, and maybe I have. But someone has to speak up. I hardly recognize this country anymore.

    The most famous business leaders are not the innovators but the guys in handcuffs. While we’re fiddling in Iraq, the Middle East is burning and nobody seems to know what to do. And the press is waving ‘pom-poms’ instead of asking hard questions. That’s not the promise of the America my parents and yours traveled across the ocean for. I’ve had enough. How about you?

    I’ll go a step further. You can’t call yourself a patriot if you’re not outraged. This is a fight I’m ready and willing to have. The Biggest ‘C’ is Crisis! (Iacocca elaborates on nine C’s of leadership, with crisis being the first.)

    Leaders are made, not born. Leadership is forged in times of crisis. It’s easy to sit there with your feet up on the desk and talk theory. Or send someone else’s kids off to war when you’ve never seen a battlefield yourself. It’s another thing to lead when your world comes tumbling down. On September 11, 2001, we needed a strong leader more than any other time in our history. We needed a steady hand to guide us out of the ashes. A hell of a mess, so here’s where we stand.

    We’re immersed in a bloody war with no plan for winning and no plan for leaving. We’re running the biggest deficit in the history of the country. We’re losing the manufacturing edge to Asia, while our once-great companies are getting slaughtered by health care costs. Gas prices are skyrocketing, and nobody in power has a coherent energy policy. Our schools are in trouble. Our borders are like sieves.

    The middle class is being squeezed every which way. These are times that cry out for leadership. But when you look around, you’ve got to ask: ‘Where have all the leaders gone?’ Where are the curious, creative communicators? Where are the people of character, courage, conviction, omnipotence, and common sense? I may be a sucker for alliteration, but I think you get the point.

    Name me a leader who has a better idea for homeland security than making us take off our shoes in airports and throw away our shampoo? We’ve spent billions of dollars building a huge new bureaucracy, and all we know how to do is react to things that have already happened.

    Name me one leader who emerged from the crisis of Hurricane Katrina. Congress has yet to spend a single day evaluating the response to the hurricane or demanding accountability for the decisions that were made in the crucial hours after the storm. Everyone’s hunkering down, fingers crossed, hoping it doesn’t happen again. Now, that’s just crazy. Storms happen. Deal with it. Make a plan. Figure out what you’re going to do the next time.

    Name me an industry leader who is thinking creatively about how we can restore our competitive edge in manufacturing. Who would have believed that there could ever be a time when ‘The Big Three’ referred to Japanese car companies? How did this happen, and more important, what are we going to do about it?

    Name me a government leader who can articulate a plan for paying down the debit, or solving the energy crisis, or managing the health care problem. The silence is deafening. But these are the crises that are eating away at our country and milking the middle class dry.

    I have news for the gang in Congress. We didn’t elect you to sit on your asses and do nothing and remain silent while our democracy is being hijacked and our greatness is being replaced with mediocrity. What is everybody so afraid of? That some bonehead on Fox News will call them a name? Give me a break. Why don’t you guys show some spine for a change?

    Had Enough? Hey, I’m not trying to be the voice of gloom and doom here. I’m trying to light a fire. I’m speaking out because I have hope – I believe in America. In my lifetime, I’ve had the privilege of living through some of America’s greatest moments. I’ve also experienced some of our worst crises: The ‘Great Depression,’ ‘World War II,’ the ‘Korean War,’ the ‘Kennedy Assassination,’ the ‘Vietnam War,’ the 1970’s oil crisis, and the struggles of recent years culminating with 9/11.

    If I’ve learned one thing, it’s this: ‘You don’t get anywhere by standing on the sidelines waiting for somebody else to take action. Whether it’s building a better car or building a better future for our children, we all have a role to play. That’s the challenge I’m raising in this book. It’s a “Call to Action” for people who, like me, believe in America .’ It’s not too late, but it’s getting pretty close. So let’s shake off the crap and go to work. Let’s tell ’em all we’ve had ‘enough.’

    Make your own contribution by sending this to everyone you know and care about. It’s our country, folks, and it’s our future. Our future is at stake.

  135. reinvestor101 says:

    7. Lee Iacocca

  136. Clotpoll says:

    tard (137)-

    You are a turdburglar of immense proportion.

  137. lostinny says:

    You are a turdburglar of immense proportion.

    Quote of the day!

  138. Tom says:

    I’m so confused.

    Is reinvestor just playing an over the top character?

    That would have been my first guess but in the past few years I’ve been waking up and realizing the actual depths of people’s ignorance and their inability to recognize it.

  139. Confused In NJ says:

    Last January, initial results of a study called ENHANCE showed Vytorin was no better than Zocor at reducing plaque buildup in neck arteries — indicating Zetia gave no added benefit over Zocor. That led several prominent doctors to urge patients to abandon Vytorin in favor of older cholesterol drugs with a longer track record. Sales of both Vytorin and Zetia began falling almost immediately as a result.

    On Thursday, FDA said it had completed its review of the final report on the study. The agency said results showed that after two years of treatment, even though there was no difference in the thickness of plaque in the carotid artery in patient groups that got either Vytorin or Zocor, there was a significant difference in cholesterol levels.

    Those in the Vytorin groups saw their level of bad, or LDL cholesterol, fall by 56 percent, versus a 39 percent drop in the Zocor group, FDA wrote in a statement.

    So the FDA decided that even though both classes of Statins failed to achieve their stated Goal, both should still be taken because they reduce the Cholesterol. which evidently has nothing to do with the stated goal. Who paid these Bozo’s off?

  140. reinvestor101 says:

    8. Tom
    9. lostinny (forget about me ever taking you on a date)

  141. Tom says:


    Instead of spending time making your hit list, you should have taken the advice I gave in a previous thread and enrolled at least in some of the 200 and 300 level courses.

  142. lostinny says:

    Yay I made the list! Thanks RE101!

  143. Tom says:


    You were doubly rewarded.

    Unfortunately I still have to worry about him asking me out.

  144. reinvestor101 says:

    Hey…homey don’t play dat

    Tom says:
    January 8, 2009 at 6:46 pm

    You were doubly rewarded.

    Unfortunately I still have to worry about him asking me out.

  145. Barbara says:

    The state of this country can only be described as an atrophied muscle. There’s a lot of blame to go around but it come down to character. We lack.

  146. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Did I hear this stat correctly on Bloomberg Radio today?????

    They said that 48% of Wal-Mart Gift Cards this holiday are being redeemed in WM’s grocery section!

    Is it getting THAT difficult to put food on the table? Is Middle America really having to stretch to get from paycheck to paycheck??

    My Goodness….that’s scary.

    I heard this in the car this afternoon and googled it when I got home, but could find no reference to it.

  147. lennie says:

    i am recently incorporated and have a SEP. My SEP is at a local bank getting about 3%. Any insight to where i should place it? I know i can put it in a Vanguard or such…but am i better off leaving it for now with this ROR? i am very wet behind the ears with this whole SEP.. thanks

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