S&P Case Shiller December Home Price Index

From MarketWatch:

Home prices off record 18.5% in past year, Case-Shiller says

Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities dropped 2.5% in December from the prior month, and were down a record 18.5% from the previous year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index published Tuesday by Standard & Poor’s. Prices have fallen in all 20 cities compared with last month and a year ago. The largest declines in December and for year were in Phoenix, with price drops of 5.1% and 34%, respectively. For the original 10-city index, prices fell a record 19.2% for the year, and 2.3% in December

From Bloomberg:

Housing Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall a Record 18.5%

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities declined 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the fastest drop on record, as foreclosures climbed and sales sank.

The decrease in the S&P/Case-Shiller index was more than forecast and followed an 18.2 percent drop in November. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over- year records began in 2001.

Record foreclosures are contributing to declining property values and household wealth, crippling the consumer spending that makes up about 70 percent of the economy. The Obama administration has pledged to spend $275 billion to help stabilize the housing market, including $75 billion to bring down mortgage rates and encourage loan modifications.

“The massive inventory overhang in the market and the surge in foreclosures mean prices will continue to fall rapidly,” Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York, said today in a note to clients. “The administration’s rescue plan will, in time, slow the rate of decline, but it won’t happen immediately.”

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 18.3 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 17.4 percent to 19 percent.

From Reuters:

U.S. home prices drop at record pace in December: S&P

Prices of U.S. single-family homes plunged 18.5 percent in December from a year earlier as the monthly pace accelerated, according to a Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday.

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.5 percent in December from November, compared with a 2.3 percent decline in the previous period, S&P said in a statement.

“There are very few, if any, pockets of turnaround that one can see in the data,” David Blitzer, chairman of S&P’s index committee, said in the statement. “Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path.”

In a separate index, home prices depreciated at a 18.2 percent pace in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, for the largest drop since the series began 21 years ago, it said. From the housing market peak in the second quarter of 2006, home prices have plummeted 26.7 percent, it said.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

354 Responses to S&P Case Shiller December Home Price Index

  1. DL says:

    AIG a penny stock. Who would have thought?

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Home Depot sees 2009 sales falling 9%

    Home Depot Q4 sales down 17.3% at $14.6B

  3. George Soros says:

    How about AIG a liar? Don’t expect the truth from AIG.

  4. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Obama’s Mortgage Plan for Fannie, Freddie May Face Legal Snag

    President Barack Obama’s plan to use mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance as many as 5 million loans may face legal challenges over whether the administration is overstepping its authority.

    The proposal may violate requirements that homeowners put up at least 20 percent of the appraised value of a home or carry mortgage insurance, said U.S. Representative Scott Garrett of New Jersey, the ranking Republican on a panel that oversees the companies.

    “I don’t see how that stands in face of what the statute says,” Garrett said in an interview. “It certainly seems as though they need to seek a congressional change, a legislative statutory change.”

    Fannie and Freddie’s charters prohibit the acquisition of new loans with a loan-to-value ratio of more than 80 percent — meaning the homeowner has less than 20 percent equity in the property — unless mortgage insurance or some other credit backing is used.

    Regulators will work around that requirement by treating the refinancings as a “modification for charter purposes,” not as new loans, Lockhart, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a Feb. 20 letter to a mortgage insurance trade group.

    The difference is that a modification retains the original contract, changing its terms. A refinanced loan requires an entirely new mortgage, which Fannie and Freddie would have to repurchase and repackage into a new security, according to analysts and the companies.

    “The new refinanced loan is treated as a new origination because the old loan is paid off,” said Amy Bonitatibus, a Fannie spokeswoman.

    Representative Garrett said he is seeking a legal opinion that was prepared by Lockhart’s office.

    FHFA, through spokeswomen Stefanie Mullin and Corinne Russell, declined to provide the opinion.

    “The FHFA is an independent agency, and we defer to their judgment on its authority as the president looks forward to working with Fannie, Freddie and the FHFA to help millions of responsible homeowners make their mortgages more affordable,” said Nick Shapiro, a White House spokesman.

    Fannie and Freddie’s charters say “in black and white, everything over 80 percent loan-to-value requires mortgage insurance, and you say, ‘No, there’s wiggle room there,’” said Julian Mann, who helps manage about $4 billion in bonds as a vice president at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles.

    “If you start playing fast and loose with written rules, you undermine the whole fabric of the capital-market system and you call into question contract law on everything,” Mann said.

  5. Seneca says:

    Clot, re: short sale offers from previous thread…

    So with short sales, buyers should be prepared to make an offer and have it accepted 5 months later, at which point the market value may have already declined another 10%?

    How are short sales ever a good idea?

  6. Cindy says:

    http://www.financialweek.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090223/REG/902209973

    RX for U.S. Banks: Made in China
    The road to restructuring Citigroup and Bank of America may run through Beijing

    “So if the scenario that played out at Fannie and Freddie is any indication, the Obama administration may be waiting for China to reduce its exposure to the debt of the latest U.S. financial institutions found lying near death’s door before nationalizing them.”

    So are we “waiting” on China?

  7. cooper says:

    #7 Seneca-
    How are short sales ever a good idea?

    as the price drops, the idea gets better and better. when the banks soften and begin accepting lower and lower offers the short sales become more viable.

  8. Cindy says:

    http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/

    The Big Breakup – Simon Johnson

    “If there is a good reason to have banks so large that failure could bring down the entire system, a situation that gives them quite a bit of political leverage, I haven’t heard them.”

  9. Clotpoll says:

    Cooper (9)-

    It’s the BORROWER who first has to accept an offer on a short sale property. Banks won’t look at them until an entire package (which contains- among other things- a fully-executed and binding contract of sale) is submitted.

    Banks do not “soften” as time passes. These situations are handled by people in cubicles 2,000 miles away who approve or deny these sales based on loss-recovery formulas and their own lenders’ incentives and bonuses, which are also based on the eventual amount recovered.

    The average loss mitigator works 150-180 files at a time. A speedy process is impossible.

  10. Clotpoll says:

    seneca (7)-

    A short sale should come to market priced right and have some degree of “pad” already built in to account for condition, situation and the potential for further decline. That’s what I do with mine, and there is a ready group of buyers for such homes. If there weren’t, I’d be in a soup line.

    Other than the wait, there’s no difference between short sales and any other listing out there. “Regular” listings out there don’t come with built-in price concessions that trigger over time, either. Properties in the same area rise or fall in value at the same rate; the only difference between a short sale and regular listing is the potential closing date. Whichever one you buy, the relative value of each reaches the same level at the same time.

  11. Seneca says:

    Clot – Thank you very much. Great info.

  12. Clotpoll says:

    Seneca (7)-

    If you don’t want to buy a house until the market stops declining (which I suspect is your underlying concern here), take up a hobby and forget about housing for a long, long time.

    Short sales are no better and no worse for the buyer in terms of insulation against market declines.

  13. cooper says:

    Clot-
    Over time the banks won’t take more of a loss? I’ve heard people speak of %25 off mortgage amt. when dealing with short sales (not that banks are logical) but wouldn’t logic suggest as the market drops that %25 could become 35 40?

  14. Clotpoll says:

    Too early; I can’t collect my thoughts in one post.

    Also keep in mind that a phenomenon of declining markets is that properties in the same area- across ALL price ranges- begin to decline in value at the same rate as conditions intensify.

  15. Clotpoll says:

    cooper (15)-

    The only mechanism that will encourage a bank to take more of a loss over time are the declining values of the comps for short sale properties. Mitigators use rigid formulas that are based on the mortgage amount of subject properties, plus comps from the surrounding area. The short sale either hits a prescribed number derived from those inputs, or it doesn’t.

    Thinking, reasoning and initiative are not activities in which banks engage. Witness current events as proof positive of that.

  16. Clotpoll says:

    Realize also that servicers (not mortgagees) handle a massive amount of short sales. If the servicers don’t adhere to short sale pricing formulas and procedures supplied by their investors, they open themselves up to litigation, as they would be breaching their fiduciary responsibility.

  17. cooper says:

    thx clot- i was thinking bank = seller, mentality wise. bad cooper, B A D

  18. Clotpoll says:

    bank = drone in cubicle = don’t give a shit

  19. Mikeinwaiting says:

    For those of you stocking up 20 pound bag of rice 5.99 @ Shop-Rite. Pick up 4 or 5 just in case. 30 bucks worth of insurance goes a long way to feeding the family.

  20. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I read this doozy from last night’s thread:

    ” managed inflation (which would result in more widespread but less severe misery – but will provide a fertile ground for the demagogues like say Mr. Santelli as well as some posters here, and likely will lead to bushlike government coming back).”

    “managed inflation”?!?! This guy thinks the government can manage inflation. That’s the funniest f’n thing I think I’ve ever seen posted on this blog. IT WAS THE GOVERNMENT’S MONETARY POLICY THAT LED TO THIS COLLAPSE IN THE FIRST F’N PLACE!!!!!!

  21. BC Bob says:

    “managed inflation”?!?!

    he.

    That is hilarious. How did the govt manage the bubble, now the corresponding bust? Beware of unintended consequences.

  22. Clotpoll says:

    grim (5)-

    Look at it this way: O’s housing workout plan only needs to recast 26 mortgages to make it more successful than Hope for Homeowners.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    managed inflation = jumbo shrimp

  24. Clotpoll says:

    Does managed inflation come with small, medium and large wheelbarrows?

  25. Clotpoll says:

    With you on that “managed inflation” statement, HE. That is the dumbest thing I’ve seen here since Day 1.

    And that includes some howlers by the likes of Listen, Duck, Frank and Reech.

    Dime to a dollar that poster found this place through Pravda. That paper has thousands of strunzes (I mean, readers) who actually buy into such garbage.

  26. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot “strunze” thought I only used that one. LOL

  27. kettle1 says:

    Lissosh,

    form last night

    Actually ket, I’m a little concerned about hubris. These days we all need constant reality checks.

    hubris on whose part?

    James

    SAS, your cover has been blown.

    “Operation Trojan Horse is a program designed to learn the identity of potential opponents to martial law. The program lures potential protesters into public forums, conducted by a “hero” of the people who advocates survival training. The list of names gathered at such meetings and rallies are computerized and then targeted in case of an emergency.”

    just an updated version of COINTELPRO from the 60′s/70′s

  28. BC Bob says:

    “And that includes some howlers by the likes of Listen, Duck, Frank and Reech”

    Clot,

    Now, that’s talent.

  29. Stu says:

    Good morning everybody?

    Anyone listen to Bloomberg this morning from 7:40-8:00am? Some banking analyst said that there is no way to nationalize the banks since the government doesn’t have the dough. He then went on to say that most banks are a screaming buy and said that both JPM and BAC/Northern Trust are his favorites.

    Tom Keene was astounded.

  30. Clotpoll says:

    Wonder what will happen when the “stress testers” come up against a big bank’s wall of derivatives, CDOs, SIVs, CDO-squareds and other exotica.

    These “examiners” are 80K/year water cooler jockeys. JPM has 78 trillion dollars in derivatives and has yet to net them out. What do we really expect these people to do?

    Anybody else have a feeling that in about two weeks, all the examined banks will be given a clean bill of health?

    As the corpse of Bernie continues to rot.

  31. Sean says:

    It’s fun with Barney and friends down in DC today.

    http://financialservices.house.gov/schedule.html

    Expect Bergabe to be touting his new TALF which was announced in November. The Fed will start making up to $200 billion in loans to juice the market for securities backed by lending to small businesses and consumers. The issuance of these securities, which gin up lending for things like auto loans, student loans and credit cards, essentially disappeared in October.

    This is a shot at getting it back—and helping people out there who are struggling to borrow money for cars they don’t need and college that cost way too much and also for the coming “Emergency Christmas” shopping.

    Does that make you feel any better about all the other things the government has been spending money on as of late and will it juice the markets today?

  32. John says:

    So O has a plan to have a plan to solve the banking crisis. Here is my plan,

    ring-circle bad assets
    resolution trust company II
    low interest rate loans to hedge funds, private equity or vulture funds to buy bad assets from RTC II
    Stress tests done asap where RAG Ratings (Red/Amber/Green) results are released, if we have to shoot a few banks to fail (red) so be it put them out of business. For amber banks figure out how much more cash is needed and give it to them in a manner that best fits capital requirements and for green banks pass them and get the guilt by association shadow off them. Finally, suspend mark to market account while all of this is going on.

    A plan to have a plan is what is scaring wall street, I’s rather have a bad plan at this point than no plan.

  33. Clotpoll says:

    BC (30)-

    Meet The Rutles!

    “Listen, Duck, Frank and Reech”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7RFxencNmZw

  34. 3b says:

    #31 Stu: Unbelieveable.

  35. kettle1 says:

    clot 32

    that may happen but it may not matter. It eastern europe of ireland implode, the consequences will hit our banks. How does Obama continue to explain the banks coming back to the rough again and again. At some point something gives, whether it is the treasury market or foreign investors, or a run by account holders.

  36. Essex says:

    Song for SAS….(and the rest of you)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=auTwQcuYzdk

  37. 3b says:

    #33 sean:and college that cost way too much.

    Speaking of colleges that cost way too much.

    I know 2 people this year who were unable to send their kids back to college after the Christmas break, as they could no longer afford to pay for it.

  38. kettle1 says:

    Cobbler

    re your controlled inflation plan. Mish had a good post up the other day demonstrating that you would need to print 15 – 20 trillion $ just to break even with current deflationary forces (that is 25X current base money, M0). That doesnt stop deflation as loses will continue and government revenue will continue to drop. To actually pull off your plan you would need to print even more. AT that point no one is going to buy treasuries unless they have a serious return on them and at that point the government will not be able to deficit spend unless it goes all Zimbabwe.

  39. SG says:

    Time article,

    AIG’s Plan to Bleed the Government Dry

    Now the odds that the government will have to allow large operations like AIG go into bankruptcy are fairly high. The trouble with that is not what will happen to AIG. As the market found out with the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, many of the firms that are doing business with a very large financial institution when it becomes insolvent can have transactions worth billions of dollars wither voided or devalued.

    In the intricate global financial system, there is no such things as one big player going down in a vacuum.

  40. Clotpoll says:

    John (34)-

    How will any of what you suggest actually work, knowing that the examiners are outmatched and the final results of the tests are already rigged?

  41. Sean says:

    re#40 3b- Danny, the world needs ditch diggers, too…

  42. grim says:

    So much for Christmas.

    From Bloomberg:

    Target Says Fourth-Quarter Profit Fell on Holiday Discounts

    Target Corp., the second-largest discount chain, said fourth-quarter profit fell 41 percent, hurt by holiday markdowns and the need to set aside more money for unpaid credit-card balances.

  43. chicagofinance says:

    Lost: did you see the video before they yanked it?

  44. RayC says:

    re: can’t pay for college

    I guess they are not giving out student loans like they used to, otherwise, why not take them out? You may not have to pay them back like we did. And if they go get a job, they are going to be in debt immediately anyway?

  45. chicagofinance says:

    3b says:
    February 24, 2009 at 8:41 am
    I know 2 people this year who were unable to send their kids back to college after the Christmas break, as they could no longer afford to pay for it.

    3b: Met with one of my clients last night. Their son is 23 without a job and is sitting on $100,000 of school loans. As usual with Gen Y, he doesn’t have a care in the world.

  46. grim says:

    From the Record:

    Landlords want assessments reduced

    Faced with sinking property values, commercial real estate owners this spring plan to appeal assessments of their buildings to lower their property taxes, potentially adding to the burden of financially strapped North Jersey towns and homeowners.

    Developers and commercial landlords may have a better chance to win appeals of their assessments than homeowners. Many commercial property owners have working relationships with town officials sitting across the negotiating table. Because they have deeper pockets than homeowners, they come armed with financial documents, attorneys and appraisers who can make the case that their income-producing properties have made less money — the essence of what determines commercial property values. Strengthening some of their claims is the fact that much of their rental income came from retailers that have gone out of business because of the lengthening recession.

    Charles Klatskin, a Teterboro-based real estate developer, plans to appeal assessments for 27 industrial buildings, including five in Teterboro, one in South Hackensack and three in Carlstadt. He expects he can reduce his tax bills by 25 percent should his appeals succeed. “I’m overtaxed in this whole thing by $6 million,” Klatskin said.

    Clifton-based ARC Properties intends to appeal twice as many assessments as last year, including those for 22 properties in New Jersey. Among them is one in Paramus, where now-bankrupt Levitz Furniture left much of the building empty last February, wiping out a significant portion of the retail building’s rental income.

    ARC, which also owns shopping centers in Woodcliff Lake and Carlstadt, paid more than $424,000 in property taxes last year on the Levitz building alone, said Robert Ambrosi, the company’s president.

    “We have had a number of tenants go bankrupt on us and move out of buildings, so those properties we’re certainly appealing,” Ambrosi said.

    How many appeals commercial owners file won’t be known until deadlines in April and May. But successful appeals could leave craters in town budgets, because owners of lucrative shopping centers, office buildings and industrial sites pay hefty property taxes to towns. If New Jersey towns, which rely on residential and commercial property taxes for about half of their revenue, have to refund commercial property owners’ taxes, they may have to take on debt to fill budget shortfalls or cut services.

    “We have to make up for the shortfall that would have been paid for by commercial developments,” said Wayne Mayor Christopher Vergano.

    “This is going to be problematic for the towns,” said William Dressel, executive director of the New Jersey State League of Municipalities. “It could very well have an adverse impact on the already fragile property tax base that is reeling from the increased number of foreclosures.”

    Reduced commercial tax bases may shift tax burdens to homeowners, depending on how much of the town’s tax base comes from commercial properties. Seventy-three percent of Carlstadt’s total taxable assessment is tied to commercial properties, for example, while only 10 percent of Upper Saddle River’s tax base is commercial.

  47. Sean says:

    More and the TALF. Like a Hedge Fund or an insolvent to big to fail bank the Fed will create a special-purpose vehicle (SPV) for the TALF assets, perhaps in the Caymans since the Fed staff can then take an all expenses paid vacation with their familes there.

    This SPV in the Caymans will then buy the assets securing TALF loans. The US Treasury’s (UST’s) Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) will then buy debt issued by the SPV to finance the first $20 billion of asset purchases.

    If more than $20 billion in assets are bought by the SPV through TALF, the Fed will then print money and then lend it to the SPV.

    So basically the Fed’s TALF and its SPV are FRBNY’s thing, but UST and TARP—i.e. BARF—are standing behind it just like any BFF would.

  48. BC Bob says:

    “The trouble with that is not what will happen to AIG”

    SG,

    From your post.

    Exactly. I imagine there are quite a few counter parties that have an upset stomach. How’s GS feeling today?

  49. Clotpoll says:

    sean (51)-

    You have just provided the basic outline for a clusterfcuk.

  50. BC Bob says:

    “So much for Christmas.”

    JB,

    The herd was at A&F.

  51. Clotpoll says:

    BC (52)-

    I’m still waiting for my free toaster from GS.

  52. Clotpoll says:

    BC (54)-

    Frank counted them. On his fingers.

  53. 3b says:

    #48 In both cases the people involved were unable to obtain student loans,and were completely tapped out otherwise.

  54. 3b says:

    #40 chro I know so many like that,and many have never held a job in their lives, even part time/summer. Simply amazing.

  55. grim says:

    What is this “student loan” you all speak about.

    Is that when the student gets a part time job to help pay for school?

    Oh, sorry, that would get in the way of partying.

  56. Frank says:

    TALF….

    Can’t wait to leverage it up with your money and buy bunch of CDOs with it.

  57. Clotpoll says:

    Frank (61)-

    Shooting against SRS again today?

  58. Sean says:

    re: #52 BC Bob when Blankfein was asked by that Congresswoman from California two weeks ago at the House Financial Services Meeting he said they had no exposure to AIG.

    Did he lie to Congress?

  59. Frank says:

    #62,
    I will wait and see what the market brings but SRS has been very good to me lately, made a lot of money with it.

  60. Stu says:

    For all of those with overpriced degrees…Montclair State University did me just fine. Could have attended many better schools, but didn’t see the value in them. The best education comes from experience. My first career job paid 18K a year and I worked it for almost 5 years to get as much experience in the industry as possible. Ten years into the next employer and I can’t even begin to tell you how much this has helped me. I’m seriously hoping Gator Jr. wants to go the plumbing/electrician route. Of course, he is free to choose his path as long as he doesn’t plan to mooch off of us.

  61. grim says:

    Macy’s lobbying for an emergency Christmas, q4 profit down 59%.

  62. Stu says:

    “I will wait and see what the market brings but SRS has been very good to me lately, made a lot of money with it.”

    If only there was a short Hoboken!

  63. BC Bob says:

    Clot [60],

    HMMM? Maybe, after HOV shuts down the fountain?

  64. BC Bob says:

    Frank,

    Go see your therapist.

  65. Stu says:

    “Macy’s lobbying for an emergency Christmas, q4 profit down 59%.”

    And the analysts say the markets are undervalued due to greed. IMO, they are actually overvalued based on recent earnings. But what do I know, I should be indexing.

  66. sas says:

    “TIME BOMB OF YOUNG COPS
    UNDER-50 RETIREES POSE DI$ASTER THREAT”
    http://tinyurl.com/czbjp7

  67. Stu says:

    “And the analysts say the markets are undervalued due to greed”

    Insert fear in the place of greed.

    Sorry folks. Freudian slip perhaps?

  68. Frank says:

    #67,
    I would short it too, just let me know how to.

  69. grim says:

    My shitty undergrad degree from William Paterson did me just fine. By my junior year, I was making very respectable salary working a full time job and running my own business, all while managing a full time course load. In the 6 years that followed, I managed to complete two additional masters degrees with absolutely no debt, maintaining near 4.0 GPAs.

  70. Stu says:

    Home prices in record drop
    S&P Case-Shiller national index down 18.2% in final three months of 2008.

  71. SG says:

    Why Isn’t the Administration Backing Nationalization?

    But it seems kind of odd that our government is advising GM and Chrysler to prepare for bankruptcy, while allowing the money center banks to remain zombies. Personally, I don’t think it’s to protect U.S. shareholders. I think it’s to protect foreign investors. And I’m not sure that there is a conspiracy either. I think it’s fear of another domino effect.

    Foreign investors via SWFs have injected billions in capital over the past year and a half only to see their investments deteriorate to pennies on the dollar. But at least those foreign investors have some hope of recovery. If you nationalize and wipe out shareholders, then that hope goes away. A message will have been sent. The U.S. is a dangerous place to invest. No safer than any other country.

  72. Stu says:

    Grim…You da man. Now turn those advanced degrees into earnings!

  73. W8ting says:

    The decline in the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded an 18.2% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 versus the 4th quarter of 2007, the largest in the series’ 21-year history. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.

    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_022445.pdf

  74. W8ting says:

    The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index – which covers all nine U.S. census divisions – recorded an 18.2% decline in the 4th quarter of 2008 versus the 4th quarter of 2007, the largest in the series’ 21-year history. The 10-City and 20-City Composites also set new records, with annual declines of 19.2% and 18.5%, respectively.
    http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_022445.pdf

  75. Stu says:

    Why Isn’t the Administration Backing Nationalization?

    Because they can’t! It’s very simple. We gave away this solution when we encouraged the foreign purchase of our debt.

    Thank goodness we still have a strong military (I hope).

  76. chicagofinance says:

    doh!

    December Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fall 18.5% From Year Ago
    By Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman
    STORY TO FOLLOW
    Last Updated: February 24, 2009 09:00 EST

  77. sas says:

    “COINTELPRO”

    what? i sure hope you guys are kidding.
    just because I don’t give you Disneyland economics, this is what I get.

    SAS

  78. SG says:

    Council on Foreign Relations – OP-ED piece,

    Let Me Give It to You Straight

    What Clinton was telling Americans–in an indirect way–was that we can’t pressure China to do squat. Yes, they need us: We’re a big market for their goods and we’re still a good place to invest. But they can find other places to invest more easily than we can find other investors. It’s better to be a global creditor than a global borrower, as Americans knew back in the 1920s when our investments propped up the economies of World War I-ravaged Europe.

  79. Cindy says:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9070.html

    From Market Oracle..

    “Saving Capitalist Banking from Itself”

    Paul McCulley

    “government-sponsored shadow bank”

    “You might not like it. I don’t like it, because regulators should never have let bankers, both conventional bankers and shadow bankers, run amok. But they did.

    So it’s now time to hold the nose and do what must be done, however stinky it smells, not because it’s pleasant but because its necessary.

    Only with the full force of the sovereign’s balance sheet can the Paradox of Deleveraging be broken”

  80. comrade nom deplume says:

    [21] mike,

    that’s upwards of 100 lbs of rice. How long will that keep? I also advocate having an exceptionally well-stocked larder these days, but is that a bit excessive? How are you storing it?

    [28] mike

    Strunze. Ha! There’s a memory. My dad used to use that word a lot (fortunately never on me or my siblings).

  81. comrade nom deplume says:

    [82] sas,

    I think we are both on the list. I know that FBI already has an extensive file on me (though I knew that as it was work-related). Still, not sure I want it getting any thicker.

  82. sas says:

    this is an interesting (and sad) story that might peek some interest.
    out of the Rapid City wire:

    “Sawmill bankruptcy leaves former employee’s family with $100,000 in unpaid medical bills”
    http://tinyurl.com/coaq2z

    SAS

  83. John says:

    Doesn’t matter, perception and optics are driving the market. The fed can literally let the inmates do this as long as the results are what investors want. You and I with a few books of green ledger paper, some red and black pencils and a texas instruments calcuator can get this done. Remember, the methodolgy and actual strees test results are not revealed. As long as you shoot a bank or two and give a bank or two a gold star the public will be happy.

    Sometimes you have to back into a number.

    Clotpoll says:
    February 24, 2009 at 8:43 am
    John (34)-

    How will any of what you suggest actually work, knowing that the examiners are outmatched and the final results of the tests are already rigged?

  84. comrade nom deplume says:

    [65] stu,

    that’s because engineering is more of a meritocracy, and less of an aristocracy, than other professions. Law has to be about the worst when it comes to aristocracies—where you went to school determines your worth. It’s not like they teach different law there, or that the graduates are somehow superior (I have seen plenty of HULS flameouts), but peer firms won’t look at you unless you went to the “right” schools. At its core, it is a massive effort at CYA by law partners: your partners and clients won’t ding you if the HULS grad doesn’t work out, but if you hired a 3rd tier guy and he bombed, it leaves a pretty big mark on your rep.

    I got lucky and graduated law school just as the bubble was forming, so firms had to “lower their standards” to get warm bodies, and I got marquee experience. I feel bad for those who have to try to make their bones in a down market—when the graduate pretty much determines where they will forever remain in the pecking order.

  85. DL says:

    Clot: ref 32. Of course the banks will be given a clean bill of health. The gov’t's mantra (and CNBC’s as well) throughout all of this is that the entire crisis is due of a lack of public/investor confidence and negative perceptions. If they could only restore confidence, we’d all be willing to pay bubble proces again and refloat the economy. As you’ve pointed out, the banks’ toxic assets exceed the gov’t's ability to print money. So the only thing our appointed and annpointed officials can hope to influence is perception. Reality suscks. BTW, why do you think they let the Pres speak yesterday only after markets had closed? He essentially said 1) we have a porblem and 2) we have to wokr our way through it. In other words, we don’t have a clue yet. Had he said that before market close we’d have lost another 250 points.

  86. John says:

    Pimco’s Gross Says U.S. Needs Credit, Not Bank Nationalization
    Email | Print | A A A

    By Dave Liedtka

    Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder William Gross said the U.S. requires trillions of dollars in credit creation and foreclosure prevention, not bank nationalization.

    Gross reiterated Pimco’s preference for agency mortgages and other areas of the credit markets that receieve government policy support in a commentary posted on the firm’s Website.

  87. Sean says:

    SAS re: COINTELPRO

    So when we are all marching on DC demanding debt forgiveness will the FBI be there? Just like they were during the civil rights marches in the 1960s down in the deep south? Will the FBI be there to count the punches and nightstick hits?

  88. BC Bob says:

    “Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder William Gross said the U.S. requires trillions of dollars in credit creation”

    Credit creation? Credit creation? HMMM.

  89. John says:

    re 90 I disagree, in speaking to a former fed person last week running the printing press is an valid choice. Lets say, person A sold a house for 600K to person b and house is now worth 300K, no money was lost on a macro basis as person A still has money so if we give person B the money to replace his loss we cause inflation. However, in the case of complex illiquid synthetic banking instruments money literally disappeared. The Fed can literally pump replacement money into system to replace money that disappeard without inflation. In fact not doing it causes deflation. The homeowners who bought a house were involved in good old fashioned horse trading, they overpaid. Just like in the wild west the guy who sold you the horse ain’t giving you the money back. Problem is once again perception and optics, the average person who overextended themselves and bought an SUV and Toll Bros mcmansion who are now unemployed wants to be bailed out. That will only make things worse. They can’t stomach seeing banks being “saved”, problem is the subprime crowd has a hs equivalancy degree and no financial services business experience so although their collective voice is very large they ain’t too bright.

  90. Stu says:

    Social Science Research Network:
    Stock-Market Crashes and Depressions

    http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1347272

    “Long-term data for 25 countries up to 2006 reveal 195 stock-market crashes (multi-year real returns of -25% or less) and 84 depressions (multi-year macroeconomic declines of 10% or more), with 58 of the cases matched by timing. The United States has two of the matched events – the Great Depression 1929-33 and the post-WWI years 1917-21, likely driven by the Great Influenza Epidemic. 45% of the matched cases are associated with war, and the two world wars are prominent. Conditional on a stock-market crash, the probability of a minor depression (macroeconomic decline of at least 10%) is 30% and of a major depression (at least 25%) is 11%. In a non-war environment, these probabilities are lower but still substantial – 20% for a minor depression and 3% for a major depression. Thus, the stock-market crashes of 2008-09 in the United States and other countries provide ample reason for concern about depression. In reverse, the probability of a stock-market crash is 69%, conditional on a depression of 10% or more, and 91% for 25% or more. Thus, the largest depressions are particularly likely to be accompanied by stock-market crashes, and this finding applies equally to non-war and war events. We allow for flexible timing between stock-market crashes and depressions for the 58 matched cases to compute the covariance between stock returns and an asset-pricing factor, which depends on the proportionate decline of consumption during a depression. If we assume a coefficient of relative risk aversion around 3.5, this covariance is large enough to account in a familiar looking asset-pricing formula for the observed average (levered) equity premium of 7% per year. This finding complements previous analyses that were based on the probability and size distribution of macroeconomic disasters but did not consider explicitly the covariance between macroeconomic declines and stock returns.”

    Hat tip to ‘Crossing Wall Street’.

  91. John says:

    Yes Credit Creation!!!!!! Extend credit to private enterprises to buy toxic assets so we can move them off banking balance sheets. Not to buy SUVs

  92. Hard Place says:

    sas says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:15 am
    “COINTELPRO”

    what? i sure hope you guys are kidding.
    just because I don’t give you Disneyland economics, this is what I get.

    SAS

    You didn’t sense the sarcasm? All in good fun. So can I now stop worrying about little laser red dots being aimed at my forehead?

  93. John says:

    Money Is Fungible, run the damm presses.

  94. Sean says:

    re: #94 – John – Do you really think that the banks themselves can expand their balance sheets another 10 or 15 Trillion dollars in new loans over the next few years? Remember nobody is buying the securitized AAA junk CDOs.

  95. Hard Place says:

    They can’t stomach seeing banks being “saved”, problem is the subprime crowd has a hs equivalancy degree and no financial services business experience so although their collective voice is very large they ain’t too bright.

    And that is the crux of our problem… A nompound is sounding like a potential option. Talked to a coworker who has 20 acres in the catskills, he uses it for hunting, or so he says.

  96. 3b says:

    #94 John:problem is the subprime crowd has a hs equivalancy degree and no financial services business experience so although their collective voice is very large they ain’t too bright.

    Gee John, there you go with your broad generalization crap again.

    Everyone I know who is in trouble right now, has at least a BA.

    Can you please stop with blaming this all on people who only have a HS.

    As far as not being too bright,look at the best and brightest who created this mess in the first place.

  97. BC Bob says:

    “Extend credit to private enterprises to buy toxic assets so we can move them off banking balance sheets.”

    John,

    The market has spoken, .05 on the dollar. The dead, insolvent banks will be finished. What private enterprise will be willing to pay above market value for this crap?

  98. John says:

    This is going to be the hardest lent ever!!!! I swore not to trade stocks or bonds all of lent and I am already having panic attacks and it is not even Ash Wed. Reminds me of when I gave up alchol for lent, first day brother convinced me light beer is not really alchol, second day well beer is not really alchol, third day wine is really the blood of christ so not alchol, fourth day, day mixed drinks are mixed so that is not really alchol, then day five mixed shots like a kamakaize are mixed so not really alchol, by the end I think all I gave up was drinking flaming shots of grain alchol while doing keg stands.

  99. NJGator says:

    In today’s listings, 2 Montclair properties being listed significantly below assessment. Yup, the market is just peachy here:

    109 Buckingham (2635190)
    OLP: $579k
    LP: $530k
    Tax Assessed: $694,200
    LP = 23.7% below assessment. Listing indicates that tax appeal is in progress

    43 College Ave (2653212)
    LP: $550k
    Tax Assessed:$647,300
    Sold 7/26/05 – $631k
    LP = 15% below assessment and 12.8% below 2005 SP

  100. NJGator says:

    Re 105 – 43 College Ave actually sold for $725k on 6/8/06. So current LP is 24.1% below the most recent sale. Can’t believe I missed that one. Must get more coffee.

  101. BC Bob says:

    “I swore not to trade stocks”

    John,

    Think of all the $ you will save.

  102. Cindy says:

    11 Clot “Banks do not “soften” as time passes.

    Anecdotal from my neighborhood here in CA – Once they own the place they seem to…

    I don’t know if the banks hired more capable people.

    I don’t know if they got tired of losing money hand over fist as they watched the market decline.

    But three bank-owned homes were listed in my neighborhood within days of each other.

    All sold within weeks of each other – 6 months later.

    Did the comps hit that made the offers they were seeing doable?

    I have no idea…

  103. Hubba says:

    I’ve got a great idea for the proponents of managed inflation, gubmint price controls. We had them in the roaring 70′s except that they were caps. This time around we can use price floors. Let’s roll back _ALL_ prices to 2006. That will solve everything.

  104. Stu says:

    “I swore not to trade stocks”

    Can’t make money trading stocks anyway. best you can do is index.

  105. Hard Place says:

    Outerborough developer I know getting their loans called on a 60 plus unit building. About 2/3 rds sold, so they have ability to sell below cost before profits wiped out. How does that make previous buyers feel?

    We’re going to see so much more of this in NYC. That deal on 20 pine st, the developer was asking for $650 per sqft. That’s about half what they were selling in recently closed sales. Wonder where NYC avg per sqft will eventually be at the end of all this? I think the NYC avg was about $1100 per sqft at peak.

  106. sas says:

    “So can I now stop worrying about little laser red dots being aimed at my forehead?”

    don’t use laser sights, the mounting tends to throw off the accuracy, as does silencers.

    then again at less than 5 ft…..

    :)
    SAS

  107. John says:

    Correct, a nickle is the fair market value of the stocks today. What I am talking are match-book backstopped transactions in a public private cooporative transaction, forget about current market value. Take your damm TI our of your pocket protector, figure out at the end of the 30 years most probable total of interst and payments back into current market value if held to maturity and if on a straight value calculation basis it is worth than current market value vultures will move it to their balance sheet in an instant with 100% financing at a rate below its current interest stream. You give me a loan for 100% of purchase price and gurantee at maturity I will be paid at least what I spent to purchase it I am buying it for way more than 5 cents on a dollar.

    I sat in Leonards of Great Neck in a Gigantic Ballroom in the Fall of 1991 in what was the worst real estate market with almost one thousand people when the Resolution Trust Company was doing a dutch auction. People claimed you could not sell a home, well one thousand people that day was ready to buy.

    BC Bob says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:51 am
    “Extend credit to private enterprises to buy toxic assets so we can move them off banking balance sheets.”

    John,

    The market has spoken, .05 on the dollar. The dead, insolvent banks will be finished. What private enterprise will be willing to pay above market value for this crap?

  108. SG says:

    Economic Crisis: Brzezinski warns of riots in US

    Zbigniew Brzezinski, a former national security advisor, has warned that the US could witness riots if economy continues its downward spiral.

    Brzezinski, meanwhile, made some recommendations to the young administration.

    He proposed the creation of a voluntary national solidarity fund, whose contributors would be those who became wealthy in recent times.

    “Where is the moneyed class today? Why aren’t they doing something: the people who made billions, millions. I’m sort of thinking of Paulson, of Rubin [former treasury secretaries]. Why don’t they get together, and why don’t they organize a national solidarity fund in which they call on all of those who made these extraordinary amounts of money to kick some back?” he argued.

  109. sas says:

    “So when we are all marching on DC demanding debt forgiveness will the FBI be there?”

    yup, they will be there in cognito dress as you, will even try to be your friend.

    “Will the FBI be there to count the punches and nightstick hits?”

    punches & nightsticks come from the PDs.
    to escalate the tension, in order to justify a harsh crackdown by the PDs, it will be the Feds instigating trouble, which will then get any knuckleheads going… exactly what they want to do: demonize the legit/peaceful protesters and give a reason for escalation/show of force against the regular people.

    so, if anyone ever says to you “hey, we need to get violent and radical” or “hey, I have an idea, but keep it quiet and meet me behind the alley”

    you best walk away, cause thats a Fed provacator. and your getting set up.
    (same ideas hold even in the blogosphere).

    SAS

  110. RentL0rd says:

    OT: Has anyone been to Toronto (or other places in Canada) for Dental care?

    My current Dentist is an absolute waste of my time and money (inspite of great insurance), and pretty frustrated. Every Dentist around here (in NJ) seem to be booked solid for what I want for many months, etc.

    If you have good or bad experiences across the border for Dental treatment – I’m talking about Implants, Crowns, etc. please do share.

  111. yome says:

    #48 re:college loan
    There is a requirement of getting your parents as a co-signer to get the loan.I guess parents are hooked for life.

  112. cobbler says:

    kettle [41]
    Mish is putting a straw man argument as M0 as a measure is completely irrelevant in this case. If the ~800B stimulus program is paid 100% via monetary emission (Treasury “sells” to Fed a special 0% perpetual bond, and gets 800B in return), we will get something like 15-20% inflation for a year already.
    (Interesting how predictable was the reaction of Santelli fans here…)

  113. veto says:

    http://tinyurl.com/deom7c
    here is an updated CS actual and predicted graph for NY Metro.

    predictions are assuming a 48% drop peak to trough in 2012.

  114. comrade nom deplume says:

    [115] sas,

    by that standard, I could be a fed provocateur, a narc, a spy, just for advocating stockpiling of food, booze, and ammo, and buying the Nompound. Thus far, though, none of what I advocate is illegal (except for vignettes about tax evasion, but those are always clearly identified).

  115. John says:

    Go to Peoria, Il, implants are $250 bucks there.

    RentL0rd says:
    February 24, 2009 at 10:11 am
    OT: Has anyone been to Toronto (or other places in Canada) for Dental care?

    My current Dentist is an absolute waste of my time and money (inspite of great insurance), and pretty frustrated. Every Dentist around here (in NJ) seem to be booked solid for what I want for many months, etc.

    If you have good or bad experiences across the border for Dental treatment – I’m talking about Implants, Crowns, etc. please do share.

  116. John says:

    Fix banks first, growth will follow: Bernanke

    Glad someone had guts to say it. O is a card carrying commie, can trust him to save nothing.

  117. Stu says:

    “Go to Peoria, Il, implants are $250 bucks there.”

    Dental?

  118. comrade nom deplume says:

    [100] hardplace,

    Your friend’s land is probably classified as “recreational.” This is the cheapest category for land in NEPA. 20 acres may support him and his family, but if it is mostly timbered, then perhaps not easily (Spam would be better at analyzing capacity of cleared land and the cost/benefit of clearing timbered-out land (provided there are no restrictions, such as current use tax considerations)).

    Currently, land in the 50-100 acre range in NEPA is selling for 6,500 to 8,500 per acre (less if there are no structures). Trend has actually been up as I recall last year that recreational or farming land sold for less. Seems that there are a lot of Nompounds being established, and some sellers are marketing land that way (in very subtle tones). I identified one site that was very near to Lake Harmony, which passes my initial screen. May try to see it this weekend.

  119. John says:

    Dental, but I could get a price on the other thing if your wife wants. In the midwest dentists offices are located out of houses they own outright with no mortgage and RE taxes and insurance are low. Most farmers don’t have dental insurance so costs are kept low and they don’t have to hire staff to deal with processing all the insurance paper work. A lot of your dental bill in NY/NJ goes towards dentist monthly nut, his mcmansion and summer home, his insurance and all his staff which leads to sky high costs.

  120. SG says:

    Fed should give NINJA Option-Arm loan to all Banks.

  121. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    U.S. home prices slide 8.2% in fourth quarter, FHFA says

    Prices on homes sold across the U.S. fell 8.2% in the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period and slid 3.4% from the third quarter, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said Tuesday. The government survey, which reviews a broader spectrum of home sales than the S&P Case/Shiller index released earlier Tuesday, gained a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in December from November, after a downward adjustment for November. Prices have tumbled 10.9% from their April 2007 peak, FHFA said. All nine census divisions had price declines in the latest quarter, with the Pacific division the weakest. Of the 20 cities with the greatest price declines over the last four quarters, all but one was in California or Florida.

  122. grim says:

    Fed should give NINJA Option-Arm loan to all Banks.

    Isn’t that exactly what AIG received?

  123. RentL0rd says:

    John, I spent a lot of time in Chicago last year, should have checked it out. And I know a buddy who lives in Peoria, I’ll check out what you say.

    $250 for implant sounds too good to be true. My Periodontist has given me a quote of $5000+ after insurance for *ONE* implant.

  124. kettle1 says:

    cobbler,

    santelli fan? know your crowd better before you try to troll.

  125. Shore Guy says:

    “but if you hired a 3rd tier guy and he bombed, it leaves a pretty big mark on your rep”

    Ahh the so-called TTTs. TRhe funny thing is, an awful lot of the partners who went to the top schools back in the day would never get in now. Why? Back then, they excluded women and now they would need to compete against a talent pool over twice as large as the one they competed against back in the ady. Add to that the anti-discrimination laws dealing with race and ethnicity and so many of the old guard who only want to draw out of the top 20 schools would be lucky to get into a second-tier school, and many would be in the TTTs.

  126. Shore Guy says:

    If anyone here recalls my posting a few weeks back about how the Horn of Africa was going to bite us in our collective @ss, the news about al Shabab and Wisconsin should have caught your eye. The other shoe onthat story has yet to drop and it could hae one heck of an economic impact on the US and Western Europe. Stay tuned.

  127. comrade nom deplume says:

    [114] SG,

    Wow. When we spout stuff like that, I take it for what it is worth, but for Zbiggy to say we will see riots, well, I would not want to be a business owner in Newark or Queens or Cleveland (unless I had full fire insurance). And with as much ammo and arms as has been purchased by americans as of late, urban-style rioters in rural or conservative america may find the effort hazardous to their health, along the lines of the Greensboro Massacre or the LA Riot looters in Koreatown that met, shall we say, “resistance” to their redistributive efforts (I recall the image of shopkeepers in street, wearing what appeared to be kevlar vests and firing off their ninas at would-be looters).

    I fear that, in the next riot, looting will be a considerably more hazardous occupation than in past riots. Regrettably, we will see images of would-be looters lying in the streets, and open calls for jury nullification when there are prosecutions.

  128. John says:

    Rent o Lord, least I be accused of making up numbers, the $250 implant was an actual number. The dentist is in Henry Il, small town near peoria charged that to a women I know who need four implants, four for $1,000. Mind you that does not include tooth, that is the actualy implant which is metal rod insterted that a tooth can be attached to or a denture. The implant process alone at my dentist is 3,000 that does not include tooth, lady had four implants done that was used to attach perm dentures. NY price for procedure is 12,000, 12 times the price of Henry. Dentist in Henry is really good, there is only one.

  129. Stu says:

    Kettle1:

    “Santelli fans”

    I agree. I didn’t know who he was until someone linked the youtube video the other day.

    CNBC: Ensuring that day-traders keep the brokerages in business through excessive commissions, which in turn keeps the brokers advertising on CNBC.

    If you want financial news, listen to Bloomberg and read this blog.

    In my opinion, day-trading is the same as gambling, only you have a much better chance of beating the casino as a few games are positive. At day-trading, if you are lucky, you’ll be right 50% of the time, but you’ll have to subtract the commissions and taxes. The brokerage wins either way.

  130. John says:

    Re 132, I am more worried about the Horn of Africa located in DC.

  131. Hard Place says:

    RentL0rd says:
    February 24, 2009 at 10:41 am
    John, I spent a lot of time in Chicago last year, should have checked it out. And I know a buddy who lives in Peoria, I’ll check out what you say.

    $250 for implant sounds too good to be true. My Periodontist has given me a quote of $5000+ after insurance for *ONE* implant.

    In the midst of an implant right now. Costing probably about $3500. $2k for the extraction and implant. approx. $1.5k for the crown. Probably about 60% covered by insurance. Problem with the implant is return visits to check on the site to make sure it’s not rejected. Went back and forth to see periodontist about 5-6 times. Still need him to give final ok for crown. Hopefully by May. I started last year in January.

  132. cobbler says:

    kettle [130] – I wasn’t referring to you as a Santelli fan… there are other extremely righteous people here

  133. Stu says:

    “there are other extremely righteous people here”

    And some extreme right people here as well ;)

  134. zieba says:

    John,
    I just had a root canal done last night. I work in a small business and we don’t carry dental insurance. I see cash only dentists, “wacky dentists” as the partners call them, with equipment and skills that would put a park ave private practice to shame. These are european style dental practices that are located on the ground or sub level of the house the dentists usually don’t have the time or money to translate their papers upon arriving in this country.

    One time I had to have a crown put on so the dentist and I drove to a dental lab close to Brighton Beach to get it matched precisely. We go down a set of stairs he rings the bell, the door opens we step into a huge dental lab staffed by the most gorgeous young Russian women. :)

    I’ve had crowns, root canals and cavities done all without incident.
    This probably ain’t your thing but makes for a good story and it saved me a ton of money. These people will not turn you away when you show up at 11PM with shooting nerve pain.

  135. RentL0rd says:

    Zieba,

    Interesting!

    IMHO, Dentistry is more about a person’s (ahem, Dr) skill/experience than his education.

    How can I get hold of such a dentist?

    Yellow pages?

    Is it okay to get the Dentist info from you? either here or thru Grim?

    fyi: The Doc messed up my wife’s root-canal a few months ago. I think it wasn’t necessary to begin with.

  136. kettle1 says:

    shore, 132

    how does it hit the airlines? are you suggesting another 9/11 type event? And i am assuming you are referring to the Dalsan story?

  137. the crazy man in the corner says:

    shore (132) -

    there definately alot more legs to that, waiting to see how it all plays out..

    the AU is all up in arms about them, im sure that the EU will be up in arms about them soon as well.

  138. zieba says:

    I also stopped by the financial district on the way back to NJ and tried out the new Tokina 12-24. Check out the exchange:

    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=w9fy91&s=5

  139. kettle1 says:

    stu,

    check out mish,

    fuel on the fire….

  140. sas says:

    comrade nom deplume,

    i may not have been that clear in my post.
    “usually” someone whom encourages violence in a protest, or wants to use violence as a means to “send a message” is 9/10 a Fed provacator.

    keyword: advocation of violence

    the other 10% would be an actual rogue nut job wanting to cause violence.

    an advocation of stockpiles is not what I meant.
    but, on the flip side, full disclosure is never a good idea either (not saying you, just a general guideline).

    make sense?
    SAS

  141. zieba says:

    Rent,
    I think there may be a language barrier.

  142. Hubba says:

    #118 cobble

    Are you Rick Santelli’s mother-in-law?

  143. chicagofinance says:

    grim says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:06 am
    My shitty undergrad degree from William Paterson did me just fine. By my junior year, I was making very respectable salary working a full time job and running my own business, all while managing a full time course load. In the 6 years that followed, I managed to complete two additional masters degrees with absolutely no debt, maintaining near 4.0 GPAs.

    slacker

  144. chicagofinance says:

    John says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:31 am
    Pimco’s Gross Says U.S. Needs Credit, Not Bank Nationalization
    Email | Print | A A A

    By Dave Liedtka

    Feb. 24 (Bloomberg) — Pacific Investment Management Co. co-founder William Gross said the U.S. requires trillions of dollars in credit creation and foreclosure prevention, not bank nationalization.

    Gross reiterated Pimco’s preference for agency mortgages and other areas of the credit markets that receieve government policy support in a commentary posted on the firm’s Website.

    JJ: All double-talk….look at where his bets are placed…

  145. Pat says:

    Rent, there’s a guy, right off of Route 1 just into PA in Lower Makefield. It’s about a half hour/45 min. drive from North Brunswick.

    His offices are in his home, and his wife is the hygentist/manager.

    His costs are low, and he takes most insurances. My husband had two implants there for less than $2k each. Tricky ones, due to some complex issues with gums and lack of bone build-up. One stuck and is perfect, one failed twice. Not the Dr.’s fault. He didn’t charge for the 2nd attempt.

    If you’re interested, post, and I’ll shoot jb an e-mail with his name.

  146. Interesting NY Times article on a pawnshop for high-end art.

  147. Seneca says:

    Clot (14)-

    >> If you don’t want to buy a house
    >> until the market stops declining…
    >> take up a hobby and forget about
    >> housing for a long, long time.

    I confess, I was delusional. It happens once every few months.

  148. 3b says:

    #152 Pat:My husband had two implants there for less than $2k each.

    Did insurance cover any of it??

  149. RentL0rd says:

    Pat, that will be very helpful! Could you please forward it thru JB? Thanks Pat!

    JB, sorry for the bother. Please do forward – Thanks!

  150. Pat says:

    Yes, at the time we had either BC/BS or Delta. The schedule of benefits listed on your insurance benefits summary under crowns, etc., will tell you what part will be covered.

  151. Pat says:

    Oh, and the other plus to going to an “over the table” guy and using your insurance is that if the implant fails, which is not uncommon, then the Dr. can submit for the coverage benefit under the bridge.

  152. tblossom says:

    Get a load of this A HOLE:

    Clot says:

    BTW, Al, I’m not a Johnny-come-lately
    to advocating a bit of the ultra-violence. I think I’ve been a consistent advocate of violent solutions to problems ever since I began posting here.

    America is a violent country. Always has been, always will be. When we have peacetime, we squander it by searching for new enemies and new ways to employ violence. Violence is the motor oil for our dialectic process.

    Is this how you settle problems in your business? Real estate problems? Violence is the answer…

    Clot you are a pussy, bloviating on a real estate site of all places. Let’s see you’re solution to problems (violence) in action.

    What a frickin joke…

  153. zieba says:

    Snippet from UBS:
    ” The execution of President Obama’s proposal to limit foreclosures will likely be difficult given the complexity of the incentives being offered. More broadly, we continue to question whether plans that effectively
    support higher home ownership rates are the right solution in the long term.
    Said differently, if the housing downturn was facilitated by looser lending standards, it seems counter intuitive to think we can stabilize the market with the same approach.”

    File this under “Duh!”

  154. the crazy man in the corner says:

    who knew that this blog would become a source of information about dental procedures too?

  155. 3b says:

    #157 Pat: Thanks

  156. roshmon says:

    Hey Toshiro,

    Saw that article. Loved the description of the business as discreet as the article indiscreetly has the loan outfits spilling the beans on some of their well known clients.

    BTW – Roshamon and Seven Samurai on TCM tonite featuring your namesake.

  157. kettle1 says:

    crazy man

    NJ Real estate, stoller, gun, Depeche mode, dental report

  158. comrade nom deplume says:

    [139] stu

    Well, I think we know which of those two camps you fall into ;-)

  159. John says:

    re 151, I ain’t a playa hata, me also in Bill Gross’s fund. I am a huge believer in it is better to get in on it then complain about it. Depache Mode RULES!!!!! I wonder who their dentist is?

  160. kettle1 says:

    Timmy G’s stress test parameters… HAHAHAHAH

    The stress tests will use computer-run “what if” situations to estimate what would happen to each bank under Depression-like conditions, with unemployment surging to 10 or 12 percent, for example, or home prices dropping 20 percent further, Treasury and Federal Reserve officials said.

    Fed officials emphasized that these hypothetical events were “highly unlikely” to occur.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/business/23bank.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&partner=rss&emc=rss

  161. the crazy man in the corner says:

    kettle (166) -

    i guess we’ll all be banking at the Bank of the United States soon?

  162. comrade nom deplume says:

    Citibank’s portals are down.

  163. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Cobble,

    You are naive enough to believe that the Treasury knows when to turn on or off the spicket? Do you think our creditors might have a say about this?

  164. Stu says:

    “i guess we’ll all be banking at the Bank of the United States soon?”

    You have been since August of 2007!

  165. kettle1 says:

    the Case-SHiller Composite 10 shows we have about another 50% to fall to reach historical median values

  166. #162 – Loved the description of the business as discreet as the article indiscreetly has the loan outfits spilling the beans on some of their well known clients.

    Great point! Also, the article says Leibovitz signed away the rights to all of her photography. She must be in some very serious trouble to do something like that.

    Roshamon and Seven Samurai on TCM tonite

    Nice! As long as Turner doesn’t colorize them and dub the dialog into english.

    … Hmm, I had to check out the TCM schedule. 400 Blows, Chinatown, Kurosawa, I need to tune in more often.

  167. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    I mean the FED

  168. Stu says:

    Nom:

    “We are currently upgrading portions of our website, and it may be unavailable from 12:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, February 22nd. We apologize if you experience any inconvenience and thank you for your patience.”

    Looks like they didn’t get it all done in their 7-hour window.

    I’m happy when Chase.com works more than half of the time.

  169. comrade nom deplume says:

    [174] stu,

    I am not worried about loss as most of my cash assets are spread around elsewhere (and getting better returns), and what is there is well under the insurance limit (WELL under, regrettably). But given the focus on Citi these days, well, any cause for concern is a cause for concern.

  170. comrade nom deplume says:

    yep, Citi portal website comes up but without frames and in a very funky format.

    I do think this will freak out a few folks.

    Is Chase access that bad? I almost never access it so I don’t know, but I have never had problems that I recall.

  171. zieba says:

    Check out the Phoenix market, looks like 4Q07 was the tipping point:

    Phoenix MLS:
    Date Homes Sold Change Med. Price Change Listings Change
    Jan-06 5,257 -21% $255 36% 31,806 794%
    Feb-06 5,893 -24% $253 33% 35,175 939%
    Mar-06 7,487 -25% $255 24% 38,384 1106%
    Apr-06 6,764 -30% $256 16% 40,463 344%
    May-06 7,558 -24% $260 11% 44,276 344%
    Jun-06 7,207 -30% $265 6% 45,780 290%
    Jul-06 6,093 -35% $258 2% 47,358 256%
    Aug-06 6,155 -39% $255 0% 48,092 204%
    Sep-06 5,606 -39% $250 -4% 48,443 146%
    Oct-06 5,569 -31% $250 -3% 47,588 103%
    Nov-06 5,320 -28% $250 -2% 45,261 83%
    Dec-06 5,393 -18% $250 -2% 44,247 65%
    Jan-07 4,389 -17% $250 -2% 46,798 47%
    Feb-07 4,947 -16% $248 -2% 48,756 39%
    Mar-07 5,980 -20% $253 -1% 52,084 36%
    Apr-07 5,527 -18% $250 -2% 53,543 32%
    May-07 5,795 -23% $255 -2% 54,459 23%
    Jun-07 5,439 -25% $255 -4% 54,830 20%
    Jul-07 4,727 -22% $250 -3% 55,916 18%
    Aug-07 4,350 -29% $245 -4% 57,207 19%
    Sep-07 3,421 -39% $235 -6% 57,970 20%
    Oct-07 3,452 -38% $235 -6% 58,178 22%
    Nov-07 3,318 -38% $233 -7% 56,750 25%
    Dec-07 3,412 -37% $230 -8% 54,492 23%
    Jan-08 2,907 -34% $220 -12% 56,874 22%
    Feb-08 3,445 -30% $213 -14% 57,305 18%
    Mar-08 4,303 -28% $210 -17% 57,081 10%
    Apr-08 4,875 -12% $210 -16% 55,726 4%
    May-08 5,637 -3% $205 -20% 54,161 -1%
    Jun-08 5,748 6% $199 -22% 53,826 -2%
    Jul-08 5,974 26% $190 -24% 54,527 -2%
    Aug-08 5,660 30% $185 -24% 53,569 -6%
    Sep-08 6,179 81% $170 -28% 54,427 -6%
    Oct-08 5,384 56% $164 -30% 55,703 -4%
    Nov-08 4,417 33% $150 -35% 56,227 -1%
    Dec-08 5,524 62% $143 -38% 53,792 -1%
    Jan-09 4,736 63% $130 -41% 53,581 -6%

  172. comrade nom deplume says:

    [170] stu,

    “Bank of the United States”

    time for another McCullough v. Maryland.

  173. zieba says:

    “Which Capital Ratio is Most Important for the “Stress Testing” of Banks?
    􀂄 Common counts, but TCE unlikely to be the target ratio There are still many unknowns related to the latest bank bailout program. One area
    of uncertainty is how regulators will determine a banks’ need for additional capital when undergoing its “stress test”—including which capital ratio will be used to determine whether a bank has enough capital. Clearly tangible common equity (TCE) is important, but TCE doesn’t adjust for different asset mixes, loan loss
    reserve levels, or risks related to off balance sheet exposure.
    􀂄 TCE + (after tax) reserves / RWA is most important, in our view
    We believe tangible common equity (TCE) + loan loss reserves (on an after tax
    basis) vs. risk-weighted assets (RWA) may be the most important capital ratio for the banks. Risk weightings are far from perfect (and will likely be overhauled at some point), but they are a better measure of risk than total assets. In addition, they adjust for undrawn credit lines—which aren’t included in total assets. See page 2
    of this note as well as page 9 of this week’s Bank Essentials—101 Cheat Sheets.
    􀂄 Which banks have the most/least capital?
    TCE + reserves/RWA averages 6.5% at the banks we cover. Banks with the
    highest ratio are FHN (11.1%), TCB (8.9%), MI (8.0%) & JPM (7.8%). Banks
    with the lowest ratio are PNC (4.1% and 5.7% ex OCI), USB/WFC (each 4.5%)
    and BAC (4.6%). Surprisingly, C is higher than BAC (at 4.8%)—in large part due to its larger loss sharing arrangement with the gov’t.”

  174. Shore Guy says:

    “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday the economy is suffering through a “severe contraction” ”

    I did not know this. It is a good thing Big Ben is around to tell us such things.

  175. Hard Place says:

    Some OT: Not sure how many of you are basketball fans, but this article was interesting in the NYT.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/sports/basketball/23falk.html?_r=1&em

    Some of these contracts earned in the NBA are ridiculous. They should model their league like the NFL. Players get guarantees and if they can’t play to their contracts they get cut. Situations like Marbury shows how broken their model is.

  176. 3b says:

    #166 kettle:Depression-like conditions, with unemployment surging to 10 or 12 percentfor example, or home prices dropping 20 percent further, Treasury and Federal Reserve officials said.

    Fed officials emphasized that these hypothetical events were “highly unlikely” to occur.

    Do we not already have many predicting unemployment as high as 10%? Home prices falling another 20%, guranteed at least in our area.

    Hypothetical events were “highly unlikely” to occur?

    Yeah, sure, this from the same Fed that has been wrong, all along.

  177. 3b says:

    #166 kettle:Depression-like conditions, with unemployment surging to 10 or 12 percentfor example, or home prices dropping 20 percent further, Treasury and Federal Reserve officials said.

    Fed officials emphasized that these hypothetical events were “highly unlikely” to occur.

    Do we not already have many predicting unemployment as high as 10%? Home prices falling another 20%, guranteed at least in our area.

    Hypothetical events were “highly unlikely” to occur?

    Yeah, sure, this from the same Fed that has been wrong, all along.

  178. 3b says:

    #171 kettle: The 50% drop left should be alot quicker going forward.

  179. Clotpoll says:

    John (88)-

    You are one unique accountant. Or, is this the end product of what WS does to accountants?

    “Sometimes you have to back into a number.”

    I wish Ireland or Hungary or somebody would just go ahead, kick the bucket and get this whole thing over with already.

  180. CB in SJ says:

    The Dow is at 1997 levels, and home prices will soon be there. Time to dig out the old Spice Girls records.

  181. kettle1 says:

    CB,

    I always thought the one that married the soccer player was cute…

  182. Clotpoll says:

    3b (102)-

    Stop making sense. It’s ruining my enjoyment of John’s ridiculous pronouncements.

  183. Clotpoll says:

    John (104)-

    May I suggest that this is a habit you may want to resurrect?

    “…by the end I think all I gave up was drinking flaming shots of grain alchol while doing keg stands”

  184. Hubba says:

    “Sometimes you have to back into a number.”

    John, did you go the the Barney Frank school of economics?

  185. Clotpoll says:

    BC (107)-

    Maybe we can convince John that short-selling isn’t really trading. :)

    “I swore not to trade stocks”

  186. chicagofinance says:

    chicagofinance says:
    February 24, 2009 at 11:24 am
    John says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:31 am
    Pimco’s Gross Says U.S. Needs Credit, Not Bank Nationalization

    FOLKS: please be consistent…IF you are outraged at Wall Street bank CEO’s, then you must be outraged at the spectre of Bill Gross lining his pockets at your expense.

    I reserve judgement…..BUT THE BEHAVIOR AND ITS OUTCOMES ARE IDENTICAL.

  187. the crazy man in the corner says:

    hard place (181) –

    its always been unbelievable to me that they have guaranteed contracts – i mean, what is the point? the fact that they get to play a game as a profession, and they still can’t bring 100% to the table all the time? i mean.. god, just don’t do it!

  188. BC Bob says:

    “Situations like Marbury shows how broken their model is.”

    HP,

    Baseball is no different.

  189. BC Bob says:

    “I reserve judgement…..BUT THE BEHAVIOR AND ITS OUTCOMES ARE IDENTICAL”

    Chi,

    I agree, I’ve said it all along. No difference.

  190. Stu says:

    Nom,

    Chase online bill pay and regular checking account access is pretty spotty. It’s almost a guarantee not to be working on Sunday mornings until well into the afternoon. Chase is the Devil, but I don’t feel like changing all of my online bill payment addresses again with a new bank. Their $10 overdraft fee is really not that bad (has happened to me once or twice unfortunately), and I don’t pay a penny for their non-interest bearing checking account (w/DD). My emergency money is in the Apple Bank of NY earning about 2% in their direct yield savings account.

  191. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (108)-

    You guys in CA are months ahead of this market.

    Think of how your banks there were reacting to swelling REO inventory 18-24 months ago. Probably not as well as they are now…

  192. From the always fun Dealbreaker; Citi is done

    Five-year credit default swaps on Citigroup’s subordinated debt were quoted around 9.5 percent upfront, or $950,000 in upfront costs to protect $10 million of debt, plus annual payments of $500,000 a year, according to a trader.

  193. Clotpoll says:

    poop cobbler (118)-

    Please go back through the world history of monetary inflation and give us your honest assessment of how this harebrained idea will turn out.

  194. Stu says:

    Tosh…you left out the awesome headline…

    “A Diverse Ecosystem Of Fail”

  195. Hard Place says:

    BC Bob says:
    February 24, 2009 at 12:19 pm
    “Situations like Marbury shows how broken their model is.”

    HP,

    Baseball is no different.

    So correct. I’m a big yankees fan. Unfortunately I think they are going to kill the sport. That is unless of course the huge contracts that they have issued to A-Roid, CC, Tex and AJ don’t drag them down first.

    I think we are in a new era in sports where sponsorship pot of gold is a lot smaller. Look at nascar, they have had to cancel some venues. I think Citi Field and the new Yankees Stadium will become symbols of our period’s excess.

  196. The absurdity of it all says:

    Clotpoll says:
    February 24, 2009 at 8:14 am
    “Does managed inflation come with small, medium and large wheelbarrows?”

    Yeah, it does. You get fries with dat. You want to supersize that?

  197. John says:

    what is wrong with backing into a number? I say a good auditor or accountant uses this to prove what he already knows.

    When I was an external auditor at the kick off meeting I could “smell” what was going on. I could pick up ten findings just during kick off meeting. Of course it took weeks to prove what I already knew. You have to prove it to write it up.

    I already know the deal at C, I just need to prove it and get the numbers of what they need to sell or to disolve to downsize to a level where the govt is willing to kick in more, I also need to come up with a number that the govt can kick in without the masses spitting up their slurpees all over their suvs.

    Citi has over 3,000 subs worldwide and lots of goodwill, intangible assets, sivs and off balance sheet stuff to look at. Ain’t easy. But I did it before I could do it again. GE is worse to figure out. The last income tax return they did in print form before electronic filing was 100 feet tall!!!!!

  198. Hard Place says:

    OT: Baseball/Basketball

    Look at the market for a player like Abreu. Guy thought he would get $15mm plus. Ends up getting a 1 yr $5mm contract. A-Roid will be the peak of sports contract silliness. It will be interesting to see how some sports contracts are negotiated over the next year or two.

  199. BC Bob says:

    “I think Citi Field and the new Yankees Stadium will become symbols of our period’s excess.”

    HP,

    I agree. Also Giant/Jet Stadium with the psl’s.

  200. 3b says:

    #189 clot: Sorry clot, making sense is an afflcition I have to bear.

  201. Clotpoll says:

    3b (207)-

    Killjoy.

  202. John says:

    why, that is a fair price. I see citi sub bonds trading up to 14%. Ten million dollars of bonds will pay me $7,000,000 in interest five years. The protection is less than 3.5 million. So you are telling me I am earning a little over 7% 100% risk free for a five year bond when treasuries are paying 2% is a bad deal. totoshiro_mifune says:
    February 24, 2009 at 12:28 pm
    From the always fun Dealbreaker; Citi is done…

    Five-year credit default swaps on Citigroup’s subordinated debt were quoted around 9.5 percent upfront, or $950,000 in upfront costs to protect $10 million of debt, plus annual payments of $500,000 a year, according to a trader.

  203. Hard Place says:

    HP,

    I agree. Also Giant/Jet Stadium with the psl’s.

    BC Bob,

    $1bb+ to house teams to play 20 games (including exhibition) and a couple concerts.

    I love sports, but I refuse to pay for the games excesses. No cable, no licensed sportswear, only attend occasional game (usually with freebie tixs).

  204. I say a good auditor or accountant uses this to prove what he already knows.

    That’s some fine empiricism there John.

  205. safeashouses says:

    Pal was the jump the shark moment for pro sports.

    With wall at and re tanking and companies cutting costs, how many $300 seats will the Yankees sell? How many pal buyers will not make their year 2 or 3 payment?

  206. yikes says:

    look at those markets rally!!

  207. Dink says:

    Hard Place, the NFL contracts are set this way because the owners were able to simply crush the weakest players union in all of sports. All it means is the owners line their pockets more than the players.

  208. The absurdity of it all says:

    3b says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:49 am
    #94 John:problem is the subprime crowd has a hs equivalancy degree and no financial services business experience so although their collective voice is very large they ain’t too bright.

    Gee John, there you go with your broad generalization crap again.

    Everyone I know who is in trouble right now, has at least a BA.

    Can you please stop with blaming this all on people who only have a HS.

    As far as not being too bright,look at the best and brightest who created this mess in the first place.

    ——————————-
    I concur. The speculation was based on expectations of “future earnings”, no? I have personally witnessed some effed up behavior from the overly educated who perhaps overestimated their own future benefits. The other side of this is in talking to a few blue collar trades people who have not been sitting comfortably by for the last, say oh, 30 years-they aren’t as underwater as some who had higher future earnings expectations.
    Ping Pong anyone?

  209. #210 – So you are telling me I am earning a little over 7% 100% risk free for a five year bond when treasuries are paying 2% is a bad deal.

    Are you buying? Do you really expect to get that money back in 5 years?

  210. John says:

    I am giving up bloggin for lent so today is my last day to vent!!!!!!! The market better be back by the time I am done wiping easter chocalate off my face. Bernakee is speaking like a true man today, When I bought my citi bonds at 62 cents on a dollar I expected as is my manifest destiny and god given right to receive 100 cents on a dollar at maturity. I am about to make an infalable statement, the big four of banking can not afford a single one to go bankrupt and wipe out bondholders and non insured FDIC balances unless you want to throw banking back into the stone age. I rarely make infalable statements as they cannot be argued or questioned as they are infalable. But in this case I am using the cloke of infalability.

  211. I am giving up bloggin for lent so today is my last day to vent!

    Please tell me you have a special Lent that lasts 2 years….

  212. John says:

    I would respond but I don’t know what that word means.

    toshiro_mifune says:
    February 24, 2009 at 12:48 pm
    I say a good auditor or accountant uses this to prove what he already knows.

    That’s some fine empiricism there John.

  213. Stu says:

    “If actions taken by the administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability — and only if that is the case, in my view — there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery. (Bergabe)”

    “If this ring, whose inside diameter is smaller than that of the neck of that bottle I’m trying to catch it on, and only in the case that the laws of physics are ignored, in my view — there is a reasonable prospect that I will win a prize. (Stugabe)

    Comments like these, by those in charge, make me want to sell my home and purchase more shorts.

  214. I would respond but I don’t know what that word means.

    Lobbing softballs over the plate, aren’t you.

  215. Stu says:

    “cloke of infalability”

    ROFL John.

    SAS thinks he’s the ‘Bloke of infalability’.

  216. John says:

    well it will seem like two years, but no the normal amount of time. I will let you heathens fight this fight without me while I do the lords work. Well in my case, relaxing and getting some work done. I am negative cuase the rules have changed, to late to make big money shorting considering the risk, to late to buy near bankrupt financial and car companies bonds on premise uncle sam is stepping in to save my but as he did in my GMAC, SOV, NCC, CIT and Ford crap shoot hail mary purchases. Mr. O is going to pull another Lehman/Wamu stunt soon to prove he is a man and homey don’t play that game.

    toshiro_mifune says:
    February 24, 2009 at 12:54 pm
    I am giving up bloggin for lent so today is my last day to vent!

    Please tell me you have a special Lent that lasts 2 years….

  217. Shore Guy says:

    “Comments like these, by those in charge, make me want to sell my home and purchase more shorts.”

    If Big Ben, et al., continue to flail about, we will all need new shorts.

  218. Shore Guy says:

    “Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Tuesday the “severe” U.S. recession may drag into 2010 unless the government succeeds in stabilizing the banking system and financial markets with strong action.”

    Do I hear 2011, anyone?

  219. Stu says:

    Did we just skip over today’s consumer confidence report among the Case Shiller data?

    Previous 37.7
    Consensus 35.5
    Consensus Range 31.0 to 42.0
    Actual Consumer Confidence – 25.0

    CC in graphic views:

    http://bloomberg.econoday.com/showimage.asp?imageid=17217

  220. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhh. If we ignore it, maybe it will go away. You know, just like cancer.

    Just like if Ol’ Captain Smith of Titanic fame said: That bump? Naa, nothing to worry about. Here, have some ice for that drink, there is lots more where this came from. Say, how about those stars tonight, huh? Nice. Really nice. Oh look, is that the Carpathia over there. It is amazing how clear the atmosphere is up here. And the BAND, they just never stop playing.

  221. Clotpoll says:

    John (219)-

    Enjoy your vacay from blogging.

    When you come back, it won’t be chocolate you’re wiping off your face.

    “The market better be back by the time I am done wiping easter chocalate off my face.”

  222. Ben says:

    whatever happen to “economists predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions”? I mean, that was the reason we weren’t in recession a year ago right?

  223. #45 – Re: Target – From a NY Times article on retailer losses;
    The loss was the result of Target adding $245 million to its reserve to cover credit card delinquencies

    Previously, I don’t think we’d seen large reported losses for store cards. I’m not surprised, given the loss provisions over the past year that Amex has made it was to be expected. It seems to have taken an awfully long time to catch up though.

  224. Clotpoll says:

    tosh (232)-

    Target oughta take that bull terrier in their commercials and get some of their deadbeat customers to pay up.

  225. Clotpoll says:

    Whatever happened to good, old-fashioned kneecapping?

  226. zieba says:

    I call BS on John.

    This blog is like crack.

    I dare you to stay away! And no posting under new nicks either, this blog will pick up the onion scent like a basset hound.

  227. John says:

    My definition of recovery is Ben and Tim doing their PR Stress Test Stunt in order to pull a few hundred billion out of their arses to give to banks to stablize them from bankruptcy or nationalization fears. They don’t actually need to recover just be reimubused for Clinton and Bush pushing them into giving loans to deadbeats so that even crack heads could have toll bros houses.

    Housing and stocks in general will still be about as pretty as the girls still around at closing time.

    Speaking of that I am using closing time rules to rate banks. Club opens at 10 pm, only girls who are true tens are tens, but at eleven pm, 9 is a ten, midnight 8 is a ten, one am 7 is a ten, two am 6 is a ten and by tree am 5 is a ten and by 4 am 4 is a ten.

    It is around 3am in the banking crisis, ben and tim better pick a few pigs put some lipstick on them and at least make them look pretty, the clock is ticking and soon it will be four am and the last pig will have gone home and bill and tim will be in a CJ shooting putty at the moon, lets pretty up the banks that are left before last call!!.

    Clotpoll says:
    February 24, 2009 at 1:12 pm
    John (219)-

    Enjoy your vacay from blogging.

    When you come back, it won’t be chocolate you’re wiping off your face.

    “The market better be back by the time I am done wiping easter chocalate off my face.”

  228. BC Bob says:

    “And no posting under new nicks either”

    zieba,

    That’s John.

  229. John says:

    No looking up home prices either, nothing to do with real estate at all. Plus no trading. But I will still annoy the wife as that is part of my marriage vows.

    zieba says:
    February 24, 2009 at 1:22 pm
    I call BS on John.

    This blog is like crack.

    I dare you to stay away! And no posting under new nicks either, this blog will pick up the onion scent like a basset hound.

  230. Sean says:

    John, Larry Kudlow was praying to God directly on his show last night. In a month from now we may see him down on his knees ready to service the Devil for a rally.

    Don’t go down that path, once you start you won’t be able to turn back.

  231. Mikeinwaiting says:

    John 236 that rating system is great pure John. Leave it to you to rate banks in that fashion, totally appropriate by the way.

  232. kettle1 says:

    water cooler talk,

    The following question was asked today: somones sister has a mortgage for 400K and makes $15/hr what should the sister do????

    does this question even need a response?

  233. Stu says:

    “The following question was asked today: somones sister has a mortgage for 400K and makes $15/hr what should the sister do????”

    Oh wait, I know…have her open a HELOC?

  234. yikes says:

    why are these yahoos on CNBC shouting at me?

    just curious: do more people favor a shotgun or a rifle?

    also, here’s a link to that bank robbery in new hope. shots were fired

    http://blogs.phillyburbs.com/news/intelligencer/new-hope-bank-robbers-fire-shots/

  235. #241 – How is this person even making payments, or is she?

  236. make money says:

    The following question was asked today: somones sister has a mortgage for 400K and makes $15/hr what should the sister do????

    my advice “get yourself a good pimp”

  237. Barbara says:

    140.
    zeiba,
    that dental story is so familiar. I remember in the early 90s taking my now husband to a wacky west new york dental lab for a match. Downstairs basement apt, rang a doorbell, etc. We too did not have dental insurance, still don’t but no problems so far. Oh, and I don’t do check ups often, just floss like a MFer and use my Oral B.

  238. Qwerty says:

    Veto, very interesting chart. Did you create the chart, or is there a link to the original site?

    ============

    veto says:
    February 24, 2009 at 10:20 am

    http://tinyurl.com/deom7c

    here is an updated CS actual and predicted graph for NY Metro.

    predictions are assuming a 48% drop peak to trough in 2012.

  239. Shore Guy says:

    “has a mortgage for 400K and makes $15/hr what should the sister do????”

    Option 1: Turn in the keys

    Option 2: Turn tricks

  240. Hubba says:

    Any one here thinking of starting a private “physical” security firm focusing on residential accounts? I would love to have self protection, but my wife would shoot me for sure.

  241. noreply says:

    Maybe some of our upstanding citizens get there marching orders from this paragon of intellect and patriotism.

    Ladies and gentlemen and clot your hero
    Hal Turner:

    http://halturnershow.blogspot.com/2009/02/after-we-kill-them-what-to-do.html

  242. Stu says:

    Nice…Proxy at work locks you out of Hal Turner. Reason…Hate speech.

    His phone number is on his website. I once called it and told him off. Dude is scary.

  243. Rich52 says:

    Anyone catch Bergabe’s reply when pressed on the capitalization plan and how that is not nationalization of the banks? His reply; it’s a “public/private partnership”.

  244. cobbler says:

    “Option 1: Turn in the keys

    Option 2: Turn tricks”

    Option 3: move to the world where her $15/hr became $60/hr, the house is now worth $800K (inflation-adjusted, still a 50% drop from 400K), her mortgage is still 400K at the same 5.75% interest, and her lender went bold and impotent from despair.

    You can’t make only the people who overconsumed for the last 20 years pay for it, and expect everyone else to come out whole. We as a nation bought some 30% more stuff than we could afford, now is the shrinkage time.

  245. veto says:

    Thanks Qwerty (247)

    yep i created, just an idea of what the future might look like if the correction plays out.

  246. Sean says:

    So Bernake said the recession ends in 2010 and the markets rally somewhat, so does this mean that in 2010 we will be entering the Depression?

  247. 3b says:

    #255 sean:So Bernake said the recession ends in 2010.

    The same Bernanke who said we would probably avoid refession in the first place.

    The Fed wrong,all along.

  248. kettle1 says:

    sean,

    we already are.

    veto,

    you see a V shaped recovery?

  249. John says:

    Dan was a single guy living at home with his father and working in the family business.

    When he found out he was going to inherit a fortune when his sickly father died, he decided he needed a wife with which to share his fortune.

    One evening at an investment meeting he spotted the most beautiful woman he had ever seen.

    Her natural beauty took his breath away. “I may look like just an ordinary man,” he said to her, but in just a few years, my father will die, and I’ll inherit $200 million.”

    Impressed, the woman obtained his business card and three days later, she became his stepmother.

    Women are so much better at financial planning than men.

  250. Stu says:

    Are we still doom and gloomers if everything we predict comes true?

    Funny market today. I was inches away from adding to my short positions, but I just can’t do it with the DJIA at 7250! Now way, no how.

  251. kettle1 says:

    regarding $15/hr and 400K home:

    apparently the Boyfriend helps pay the house note, he makes a similar amount. thats all i know, i dont know what sort of mortgage they have.

    They dont want to stop paying the note because “it might hurt their credit” so they are renting out several rooms in the house. This is apparently in the general newark/union area

    sound like they are struggling to cover basic living expenses even renting out most of the house that they still live in

  252. Hubba says:

    Stu,

    Fade this one too when it reverses.

  253. John says:

    glad to see bernakee reads this blog and is implementing my bank plan.

  254. Rich52 says:

    Kettle #260 – They may qualify for Mr. O’s housing plan? Payment reduction and a $1000?

  255. John says:

    last night larry kudlow prayed to God for a turnaround and it worked. lets nominate him for st. hood!!!!!!

  256. #260 – the Boyfriend helps pay the house note, he makes a similar amount

    Well, that helps but doesn’t miracle their way into affordability. Assuming %5 30yr fixed on $400k their backend would still be in the %43 range, and that’s not counting taxes, insurance, etc. With renters and no other debt they could probably just squeak by, eating a lot of pasta, no cable, etc.
    Have they thought about second, or third jobs if they seriously plan on making a go of it?

  257. veto says:

    257 kettle1 says:
    veto, you see a V shaped recovery?

    Kettle, no i dont, you are prob looking at the orange line, that is yoy change, it shows that (nominal) prices will stop falling at the end of 2012, assuming no major inflation of course.

  258. John says:

    Re 265, easy, get a richer boyfriend, the older and uglier they get the more you can get them to chip in.

  259. 3b says:

    #264 John: This is a turn around??

    You need to give up watching Kudlow for Lent too. I expect better from a Bronx Boy.

  260. All Hype says:

    Nice to see a healthy dead cat bounce today. Must be because Bernake will be pouring money down these banks throats until they are truly insolvent. Then they can be nationalized and the taxpayer loses billions upon billions of dollars.

    Yeah John, nice program….

  261. SG says:

    zieba: Thanks for posting that report.

    The report is on why banks should not be nationalized. I have yet to see balanced Pros and Cons analysis though.

  262. All Hype says:

    Amazing, President Obama has turned us Japanese (zombie banks) and has effectvely pushed the bank problem to the next administration 4 years from now.

    We are totally screwed!

  263. RChase says:

    Re: 219

    John uses his “cloke of infalability” when sitting on his “crush valor” seats.

  264. kettle1 says:

    veto,

    opps, forgot the % scale…. nice charts!

    re 400K house:

    i keep my mouth shut. i might sound like one of those doomer types.

    Tosh, try 0 down NINJA

  265. John says:

    I am giving that up too, no real estate or stock news for all of lent.

    Propping up banks is a good thing, most likely most banks are saved and the ones that fail can do so over the next three years in an orderly manner. The alternative is a total banking meltdown losses of million of jobs and millions of pensions and losing our place as the world wide leader in financial services and the destruction of New York and Chicago. You can’t kill the banks without killing the patent, this is like cancer. You have to fight it a bit at a time. I say at max we can have one more big wipe out like wamu, any more the whole thing is going down in flames. 19 banks in the stress test game, all 19 should survive, maybe just maybe lights out for worst, but wipe out two or more the dominos will fall hard.

    in regards to compound when dust settles a little farmhouse in ireland will be nice, I have the passport and their is no re taxes and free medical.

    3b says:
    February 24, 2009 at 2:31 pm
    #264 John: This is a turn around??

    You need to give up watching Kudlow for Lent too. I expect better from a Bronx Boy.

  266. kettle1 says:

    SG,

    not trying to troll

    I have yet to see balanced Pros and Cons analysis though.

    but not everything is “balanced”. some things have 1 side, some have 5 sides. Its a straw man argument to suggest there is always an equal and opposite view. The math of the current situation suggests very strongly that there are not 2 equal views in the banking matter

  267. SG says:

    Gallup poll results,

    Americans’ Views on Bank Takeovers Appear Fluid

    A majority of Americans (54%) favor a temporary government “takeover” of major U.S. banks, but a much lower minority (37%) favor a temporary “nationalization” of the banks.

    Democrats are more likely than independents and, in particular, Republicans to favor the government’s taking over or nationalizing major U.S. banks, regardless of the question wording; Republicans are the least likely to respond affirmatively to either wording.

  268. Tosh, try 0 down NINJA

    That’s what I figured, I was hoping it was a traditional SI at worst. Since that’s the case I’m going to assume other revolving debt as well. Possibly a lot.
    Perhaps O’s plan will help, they should at least look into it.
    Other than that… they can’t afford what they have and short of getting new jobs making a lot more money they won’t be able to afford it in the future.
    Logic dictates they walk away, take the credit hit, and start saving. Of course logic alone doesn’t apply to these situations.

  269. veto says:

    excerps from the most recent gs reit research:

    US REIT View: CRE trends indicating a return to early 1990s’ occupancy levels; still Cautious

    REITs are likely entering a prolonged downturn which will be exacerbated by high leverage.

    CRE trends will not only deteriorate well into 2009, but the sector should underperform when the eventual recovery takes place.

    With the oversupply of retail space in the US relative to most countries globally, we see risk that retailers will be forced to close underperforming stores or, worse yet, file for bankruptcy.

  270. Stu says:

    Where is Bi? He is usually the loudest on double digit SRS loss days.

  271. kettle1 says:

    The kettle 1 US revenue proposal:

    1.Immediately legalize all drugs
    2. Establish the highest purity standards in the world for all recreational substances
    3. Use some portion of the existing War on Drug infrastructure to knock out any counterfeit material.
    4. Enjoy, light up a fat one as the money rolls in.
    5. treat addiction as a medical problem and use a portion of the revenue to support said program.

    then we can be the real deal, a 1 stop shop for all your needs. tech, weapons, and drugs.

  272. BC Bob says:

    “Where is Bi?”

    Stu,

    He/She just realized that we are back to 1997 levels. At that time AG was King Alan.

  273. Frank says:

    Clotpoll,
    Thanks for the SRS short idea today, making money again today. You’re my hero.

  274. zieba says:

    RE: 277 SG

    “Americans’ Views on Bank Takeovers Appear Fluid”

    What views?! How can you have a view on a subject you know nothing about. *sigh* Total financial illiteracy.

    This just in, most Americans are stupid! More at eleven.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T2KUtzsInaA

  275. yikes says:

    grim says:
    February 24, 2009 at 9:06 am

    My shitty undergrad degree from William Paterson did me just fine. By my junior year, I was making very respectable salary working a full time job and running my own business, all while managing a full time course load. In the 6 years that followed, I managed to complete two additional masters degrees with absolutely no debt, maintaining near 4.0 GPAs.

    impressive grim.
    what are the 2 masters in?

  276. DL says:

    Ket: You ever work for former drug czar Barry McCafferty?

  277. HEHEHE says:

    You have got to be kidding me? This bearded clown says the recession will be over by the end of the year and MR MARKET BUYS IT?

  278. BC Bob says:

    “MR MARKET BUYS IT?”

    he,

    Just short covering, bottom pickers.

  279. Hard Place says:

    Currently, land in the 50-100 acre range in NEPA is selling for 6,500 to 8,500 per acre (less if there are no structures). Trend has actually been up as I recall last year that recreational or farming land sold for less.

    Comrade Nom,

    Did you look at just mid-atlantic or did you consider other areas as well?

  280. DL says:

    Ref the Big B’s coments: remember, it’s all about perception.

  281. Stu says:

    HEHEHE:(288)

    He didn’t even say it. He said if the stimulus works, then the recession will end. Of course, this is the same guy who was pretty certain that there wouldn’t even be a recession in the first place. Meanwhile, many now think we are at risk or already in a depression. Go ahead suckers (like Frank). Go long and lose some more of your hard earned money.

  282. HEHEHE says:

    BC,

    I just wish I had more to short with

  283. kettle1 says:

    HEHEH

    i have the same problem.

    Wonder if i can get an IO loan from citi and increase my shorts…..

    joking

  284. Sean says:

    ________
    \______ \ ____ ____ _____
    | | \ / _ \ / _ \ / \
    | ` ( | ) Y Y \
    /_______ /\____/ \____/|__|_| /
    \/ \/

    .___
    _____ ____ __| _/
    \__ \ / \ / __ |
    / __ \| | \/ /_/ |
    (____ /___| /\____ |
    \/ \/ \/

    .__
    ____ | | ____ ____ _____
    / ___\| | / _ \ / _ \ / \
    / /_/ > |_( | ) Y Y \
    \___ /|____/\____/ \____/|__|_| /
    /_____/ \/

  285. Hubba says:

    Stu,

    Moving to DC?

    Obama taps Montclair resident for Deputy Secretary of Labor

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/02/corzine_taps_montclair_residen.html

  286. zieba says:

    IMHO,
    This party train is heading up to retest support now resistance at the point where the markets broke down and out of the triangle last week. From a technical standpoint, targets are SPX 820-84X, DOW 7550-7700 depending on rate of rally, we may just get sideways chop.

    My experience is that the move up to test the failed triangle is an exhaustive one.

    It may be time for the other shoe to drop.

  287. HEHEHE says:

    Kettle,

    Yeah, they don’t seem to be sending those 0% credit card offers anymore.

  288. BC Bob says:

    zieba,

    I agree. Old floors become new ceilings.

  289. Victorian says:

    Wow! Missed a lot of excitement the last two days. Too much work. Can anybody summarize the last 600 comments?

  290. yikes says:

    comrad – do you own kevlar? do you intend to?

    still about 150 points behind, but i know what i’m going to see: douchey Bi dropping by to talk about how the markets are up and we’re through the worst.

    i predict after a nice speech tonight by obama, the markets will get another 250 point boost tomorrow and another round of ‘we’ve seen the bottom’ will be spouted by the cnbc clowns

  291. Hard Place says:

    SAS –

    As our local intelligience expert, what do you think of Stratfor?

  292. Stu says:

    “i predict after a nice speech tonight by obama, the markets will get another 250 point boost tomorrow and another round of ‘we’ve seen the bottom’ will be spouted by the cnbc clowns”

    Each attempt at a market prep rally has less and less of an impact. Maybe a small bump tomorrow, but longer term, we’re still going down aways. Would a complete waste of money the stimulus and bailouts are. BC is right. Nothing goes straight up or down. If 7700 is the new ceiling, then we are still in big trouble.

  293. John says:

    You will be telling your grandchildren one day about 14% citi bonds.

    CITIGROUP NOTES 5.625% 08/27/2012 ISIN #US172967BP57 SEDOL #7666900
    Basic Analytics
    Price (Ask) 77.432
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 14.000%

  294. You will be telling your grandchildren one day about 14% citi bonds

    Yeah, followed by “That’s how we knew Citi was dead”.

  295. Stu says:

    “You will be telling your grandchildren one day about 14% citi bonds. ”

    Addict!

  296. Frank says:

    The banks jumped 20% today but FAS only went up 30%, what’s up with the 3X?? The leaks are just big.

  297. Stu says:

    Looks like SRS closed today at 69.69.

    I’m not sure what kind of significance it has in the Asian culture, but I like what it means in the West!

  298. Stu says:

    Frank…You should not be investing in something you have not researched well enough.

  299. John says:

    Toshiro I have balls bigger than a brass elephant. 14% is higher than AIG is paying, it is pricing in a worst case of worst than the worst case.

    Since this is my last day trading all I bought today was Ford Bonds YTM 40% at a price of 19. As Mrs. P would say you betcha. GM bonds are getting a cram down of 30-50 cents on a dollar and Ford is in better shape. They can cram me down at 20 cents if they want!!!

    I love AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Only here can I buy a car from ford with zero percent interest from a company paying 40% on their bonds. God Bless AMERICA>

  300. Dink says:

    Another shooting in lovely Montclair..

    http://www.baristanet.com/2009/02/montclair_shooting_on_sunday_n.php

    Seems like every other day recently theres been a shooting, robbery, assault, or burglary posted on baristanet.

  301. Stu says:

    “Seems like every other day recently theres been a shooting, robbery, assault, or burglary posted on baristanet.”

    Dink…How else do you expect me to fund my shorts?

  302. make money says:

    I love AMERICA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Only here can I buy a car from ford with zero percent interest from a company paying 40% on their bonds. God Bless AMERICA>

    John,

    how long do you expect thsi to last?
    I’m not mad at you player, you put your money where your mouth is. Fcuk risk.

    Scared money don’t make none!

  303. spam spam bacon spam says:

    186:
    Clotpoll says:
    John (88)-

    You are one unique accountant. Or, is this the end product of what WS does to accountants?

    “Sometimes you have to back into a number.”

    +++++++++++++++

    When I read that, I pictured my bigger horse backing up to my pony’s feed bucket and then “evacuating” a large pile ‘o manure into the bucket.

    I guess it’s the same outcome.

  304. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Stu time to get out of Dodge?

  305. spam spam bacon spam says:

    Victorian,

    Same here.
    Can’t keep up.

  306. John says:

    Before I go home tonight I want to know predictions for what the market will look at come Easter?

    I predict a sharp bear market recovery short term that will be weaker than a 90 year old on counterfeit vigra by the time I get back, bank bonds stablizing, no big rally, but no blow ups, gold in the low 900′s and oil at around 42 a barrel and cd rates still floating at all time lows, real estate will be even limper than richard simmon’s wrist.

  307. spam spam bacon spam says:

    I DID IT.

    I submitted my application for my bulk & use variances today.

    THREE MONTHS of work all culminated in 5lbs of paperwork handed over today.

    I did about 80% of the work. My lawyer helped on two items, but I spent maybe a hundred hours putting this thing together, PLUS about another WORRYING, OBSESSING, X@N@X-POPPING 3000 hours “living it”.

    Business, however, is dead.

    Which is just nice. So I get to worry about ONE MORE thing….

    Yay, me.

  308. sas says:

    “SAS thinks he’s the ‘Bloke of infalability’”

    my gauge of sense of humor is off when it comes to the blogosphere.

    but, if this another finger pointing statement about me.

    i never ask anyone to believe me at face value, rather look into what I say, and I am the first to admit I am not always correct, can be mislead, & can make mistakes too.

    SAS

  309. Herring123 says:

    Comrade/Stu

    My biglaw officemate (fancy school, big firm gig, fancy department) just let me know that “the wasabi peas are coming out the other end” and gave me a thumbs up. So much for (big)law being an aristocracy…

  310. sas says:

    Herring123,

    you on the uws right?
    you goto that Irish joint on 83rd that always has that big St. Bernard outside of it?

    SAS

  311. kettle1 says:

    SAS

    I am pretty sure that both COINTELPRO and Bloke of Infailability were jokes. no need to go putting hit contracts on anyone ;)

  312. Herring123 says:

    On occasion, they’ve got the most interesting and varied beer selection on the upper west side, so far as I know. Though I generally avoid it on weekends and Thursday nights and would rather be drinking outside when the weather’s nice.

  313. kettle1 says:

    clot,

    this might be up your alley

    Harvard financial guru Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession’ ends.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20090223.wferguson0223/BNStory/crashandrecovery/home

  314. sas says:

    “interesting and varied beer selection”

    yes, i agree.

    SAS

  315. still_looking says:

    Herring123, 321.

    ??? How about in English?

    wasabi peas? burning butt (bad?) Green stuff (good?)

    ya lost me.

    sl

  316. kettle1 says:

    i found out who frank is….Willie Brown

    We went to Cipriani for dinner one night. The place was packed, and everyone was dressed to kill.

    And the bill pretty nearly killed me as well – $600 for five people, and no one was drinking.

    The next day at Nello’s on the Upper East Side – another $600. For lunch!”

    Ravioli: $60. Pasta Bolognese: $48. It was staggering.

    I went out to the stores. They were all full.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/02/22/BAR3161AGK.DTL

  317. sas says:

    “Stratfor”

    everynow and then something good slips through the cracks.

    i just don’t like one source that does all the “packaging”

    SAS

  318. kettle1 says:

    anyone bring this up yet? how long before all the mcmansions in NJ go black?

    The problem of defective Chinese drywall is no longer confined to coastal Florida.
    Related Links:

    * Chinese drywall is quietly removed from houses
    * Decision time on drywall

    Click to enlarge
    Ryan Willis of Sebring says Chinese drywall in his house has turned his silver plates black. Order photo
    STAFF PHOTO / AARON KESSLER

    Click to enlarge
    Ryan Willis says he has had to replace the coils in his air conditioner four times since 2007. Order photo
    STAFF PHOTO / AARON KESSLER

    Drywall produced by Knauf Tianjin Plasterboard Co. Ltd. — one of the problematic manufacturers identified so far — made it to the inland town of Sebring, about 90 miles east of Sarasota in Highlands County, the Herald-Tribune has confirmed.

    Meanwhile, a national consumer advocacy group is claiming that the scope is much broader. The Washington, D.C.-based America’s Watchdog, which is partnering with high-powered attorneys across the country, says that its own investigation has found defective Chinese drywall in Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, North and South Carolina, Virginia and Texas.

    http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20090218/ARTICLE/902180349?Title=Scope-widens-in-Chinese-drywall-case

  319. Hubba says:

    From article in #325

    “[I was in Washington last week for the passage of the stimulus package]. “I felt a strange sense of familiarity in the air. Usually Washington feels totally alien to me. It was just like being in Westminster, where power was in the legislature. And the key issue was whether the upper house and the lower house could make a deal. The president wasn’t even in town. If you give Congress that kind of power – basically Congress wrote the deal – then you’re half way to a British or Canadian system in which the legislature makes the decisions.”

    Ouch.

  320. John says:

    Guys, Love You and Peace Out. Everyone have a great Easter or Passover. Will be back the day after Easter with a lot of catching up to do. I am pretty good with my Lent stuff, except alchol, but that was just plain crazy.

    XOXO as the say on GG

  321. bi says:

    i hope the market was kind enough to let my friend clot and stu get out of srs muzzle today even it is just a few bucks short. tomorrow will be another day.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SRS#chart3:symbol=srs;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

  322. Stu says:

    “Stu time to get out of Dodge?”

    Not even close. DJIA is at 7350. I’ll start my exit on the wrong side at 9500 and then, as long as nothing else changes, it would be a slow exit. The market rallies one afternoon as Bernanke makes a very conditional statement and Obama explains his pork sandwich in prime time and people think it is time to exit? Come on folks. Absolutely nothing has changed. And today’s earnings were less than stellar.

    The Dow dropped six days in a row before the minor rally today. It amazes me how short sighted so-called investors tend to be. I’m just happy that I escaped my 50% long position of my 401k with no damage a few weeks ago at 8300. To think that I thought Obama would have been FDR-like. What a fool I was. This week may end up being a great chance for me to buy a few more shares and finish filling my short positions. I can be hopeful that the fools drool over the messiah’s speech tonight and open their investment wallets tomorrow. I’m only short about 80% as much as I wanted my position to be anyhow. I didn’t think I would get another opportunity. Give me 29 on FXP and sub 50 on SRS and then I’ll be a happy boy!

    To go gaga over a 4% increase in the Dow when it is down well over 10% year to date (9,034 on Jan 2)? Well that is just silly.

    Disclaimer: Do your own damn research for a change.

    And SAS, Kettle’s right, it was merely a joke. People must learn to lighten up around here. People let emotion get the best of them way too easily. I think this same phenomenon impacts people’s investment acumen equally. One small bump in one’s ego and people are ready to drop their gloves. I tend to just make fun of my opponents mother and then gear up for the ensuing power play.

  323. Stu says:

    There he is. Like a locust in the 7th year. Hey Bi, we’re still above where you made your brilliant SRS 25 call no?

  324. Stu says:

    Actually, correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t SRS at 50 at the time? I’ll take a 40% gain any day of the week. But don’t worry. That muzzle will be back sooner than you probably expect it ;)

  325. ithink ithink says:

    all the mcmansions

    #331 – kettle

    i read mcmansions developed around 1980 but didn’t get named mcmansion until the late 90′s, after the last big real estate bust. so i guess 80′s bust it was exteriors with eifs, now it’s the inside of the house… any other products now or then we’re missing from the list? with the drywall problem, i’m more concerned about any renovation from 2005 until now that was done, not everyone redid their exterior stucco style in the late 80′s so would guess this is more gruesome.

  326. comrade nom deplume says:

    [301] yikes

    Kevlar. I might consider it. I may also consider selling it, if I can develop the concession.

  327. comrade nom deplume says:

    [290] hard,

    I did consider other places, sort of as a change to the model, but they had their issues. Out west, water is a huge issue, as is BLM ownership of damn near everything. Further, it doesn’t pass the current use test very well.

    I considered New England, but if that was what I wanted, I would just offer to buy into my sister’s place.

    Shennandoah and WVA was a possibility, but there was access and political stability issues.

    I chose NEPA because it meets all of my criteria, except for low marks in the PUV (Poor Urban Voter) quotient, but the higher marks in other quotients more than make up for it.

  328. Bi says:

    ——————-—/´¯/)
    ——————–/—-/
    ——————-/—-/
    ———–/´¯/’–’/´¯`•_
    ———-/’/–/—-/—–/¨¯\
    ——–(‘(———- ¯~/’–’)
    ———\————-’—–/
    ———-’\'————_-•´
    ————\———–(
    ————-\———–\

  329. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Stu 336 Was making ref to shootings in Montclair not market. Still in SRS , may get more on a pull back.

  330. Sean says:

    Krammer is wearing a kevlar vest right now on his show.

  331. comrade nom deplume says:

    Barney Rubble is taking Northern Trust to task for sponsoring a golf tournament, and doing some high level marketing.

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/29374295

    He is especially critical of the bank for not lending. NT is a custody bank, like STT or BNY, and doesn’t lend, period.

    He also says that they can simply give back the money. NT could do this, and I would love to see them do it and tell that fat fcuk to STFU.

  332. BC Bob says:

    Bi,

    What exactly are you chirping about, lower low and lower highs?

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=SP500

  333. BC Bob says:

    lows.

  334. lostinny says:

    ChiFi
    Get your iTunes DM pass:
    http://www.depechemode.com/news.html

  335. cobbler says:

    Stu [336] What specifically did you expect O to accomplish in 4 weeks that would have made him FDR-like, in your eyes? [Please take into account that the cards had been dealt years ago; that the most of the congressmen are not smarter than the most of their voters; and that while one of our time's best public speakers, O doesn't have the magnetic powers of Napoleon or Hitler].

  336. Pat says:

    kettle, re: housing products.

    I posted a few weeks ago that I’ve recently been spending a lot of time in new (and slightly newer) McMansions here in MD.

    I’ve got a terrific sniffer and I’m super sensitive to allergens. I did some work for the a state university’s dairy tasting program and some part-time testing work for a couple of years for a perfume company in NJ.

    While old houses with dust build-up in NJ bothered me quite a bit (you know that stuffy, clostrophobic sense of thick air you get in a hot mall? Ever subconsciously think to yourself, “this place is full of flu. Gotta get out of here!” … Well I can get that in places most people don’t.)

    I’ve been laying my money on massive remediation.

    There’s some bad shit in those McMansions.

    I don’t know what it is, but it’s bad, and it’s getting worse. Asbestos worse.

  337. bi says:

    for the record, 344# is not my post.

  338. Happy Daze says:

    352 Pat

    Supposedly there’s an odor of sulfur associated with the bad Chinese drywall. Did you notice it?
    At the risk of unnecessarily raising alarm bells, is it possible that it’s mould-related?
    There’s a problem with synthetic stucco in that if it is not installed correctly it allows moisture to collect and massive mould infestations to occur.