Double Digit Unemployment Hits NJ Cities

From the AP:

N.J. has 24 cities with double-digit jobless rates

The number of larger New Jersey cities and towns with double-digit unemployment rates rose to 24 in January from 11 the prior month.

That’s according to data released Thursday by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics on the 97 New Jersey communities with more than 25,000 residents.

Newark’s unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high of 12.5 percent in January, from 11.3 percent in December. That compares with 9 percent for New Jersey’s largest city during the same period a year ago.

It’s Newark’s highest jobless rate since January of 2004, when 12.6 percent of the city’s work force was idle.

Six New Jersey cities had unemployment rates higher than that in January, led by Trenton at 17.5 percent.

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808 Responses to Double Digit Unemployment Hits NJ Cities

  1. WickedOrange says:

    Go Cuse! first

  2. DL says:

    Mayor Jim Keenan told the crowd of several dozen employees that the township is doing what it can to trim costs and to obtain grant money. The township, which is planning no new capital projects, also may increase permit and zoning fees to boost revenues, he said.

    He added, however, that he does not want the township to defer any of its employee pension contributions, an option approved by the state Legislature earlier this month.

    A deferral would save the township more than $900,000, but repaying that over the next several years with interest would cancel out the short-term savings, Fourre said.

    http://www.courierpostonline.com/article/20090320/NEWS01/903200353

    I seemd to have missed that tidbit; the deferred pension contributions will have to be paid with interest.

  3. DL says:

    Dollar Heads for Record Weekly Loss Versus Euro as Supply Rises.
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqgTj6ryE7Uk&refer=home

    It’s not like that extra trillion dollars is going to actually circulate anywhere.

  4. grim says:

    From Calculated Risk:

    FDIC Closes Sale of Indymac, Loses $10.7 billion

    The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has completed the sale of IndyMac Federal Bank FSB, Pasadena, California, to OneWest Bank, FSB, a newly formed Pasadena, California-based federal savings …

    IndyMac Federal sustained losses of $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter 2008 due to deterioration in the real estate market. The total estimated loss to the Deposit Insurance Fund is $10.7 billion.

    The original loss estimate was $4 to $8 billion, and that estimate was later increased to $8.9 billion. Now it is $10.7 billion.

  5. Sastry says:

    Clot/grim/others:

    From yesterday:

    Just a question on the 10 Red Bud [a bank owned property], seems like it needed about 30k in repairs (including appliances, carpet, paint, etc.) The bank was putting 10k. The ask was 525k. My sense of a low-ball bid was 450k (rather very low since the ask for a neighboring house is about 660k). What would have been a good bid (not that I can or would want to go much beyond 450k for a house).

    Also, does it make sense for someone mentally prepared for a 450k house to pay about 2.1% taxes on a home assessed at 620k? [taxes were 13.5k for Y2008]

    Of course, the house is pretty fancy…

    S

  6. yikes says:

    Residents who had been pillars of Connecticut towns are finding themselves the focus of populist rage, and guards have been stationed at some of their houses.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/nyregion/20siege.html?_r=1&hp

    and GMA just teased a story about a CEO making 700k … is now delivering pizza.

  7. DL says:

    Ref7: Class warfare come to a town near you. Can’t wait for the 8 figure a year news readers to start poor-mouthing it.

  8. DL says:

    Probes of AIG Bonuses Started by New Jersey, 18 Other States

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avJwPOJehjeM&refer=home

    NJ leading the way!

  9. yikes says:

    here’s the ceo to pizza delivery man story

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=7111098&page=1

    MBA from UCLA, used to make 700k at his best. haven’t paid mortgage in two years. house in foreclosure. qualify for $500 a month in food stamps.

    kids still in private school, though – someone is “anonymously” paying the tuition.

  10. victorian says:

    “Pimco’s Gross Says More Fed Buying Needed to Spur Growth”

    What Mr Gross wants, Mr Gross gets. Spur what growth? Growth in Mr Gross’ assets.

  11. still_looking says:

    yikes, 10

    tuition paid anonymously with funds from a Cayman account.

    sl

  12. still_looking says:

    Hey! It’s snowing outside….

    (for real….I’m not kidding!)

    sl

  13. yikes says:

    question: just read the thread from the other day about how the US printed all this money essentially to buy treasury bonds.

    universally, everyone proclaimed deflation followed by inflation, but ONLY one person (that i saw, A. West) said there would be no inflation.

    Grim, you didn’t chime in, and I think i speak for all of us when i say your opinion is highly valued.

    1) what’s your guess as how the -flations pay out
    2) how will this impact those who have mortgages?

  14. yikes says:

    oh, and anecdata:

    took a car service for something yesterday (my first in over two years since i left NYC) and the driver briefly talked about how gloomy it is in their industry:

    1) a lot of his friends are leaving the industry
    2) EVERYONE has who used to use them (and over-use them) has cut-back, significant
    3) there are days he comes to work and has no assignments

  15. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    From Yesterday’s Five Things

    4. I Still Have an Oar!

    Taking the Fed’s Flow of Funds report at its word — that household wealth fell by $5.1 trillion in the fourth quarter — let’s answer the question above with another question: Which has more of an impact on risk appetites, a 5% decline in, say, the value of one’s home, or a 20% increase in the price of energy, food and medicine?

    While it’s true that certain things are going up in price — energy, heath care, medicine, taxes — those have a very low multiplier effect in the economy. Why is that important? Because the velocity of money is falling so rapidly (people are trying to save money because their assets are declining in price while certain necessities are rising in price), the Federal Reserve simply cannot keep up – even by using their final bullet to desperately expand credit.

    Meanwhile, things with a high multiplier effect are deflating, and debt is being destroyed so rapidly, that this deflation overwhelms any price increases seen in other items.

    The reason we don’t get hysterical about deflation — even when we see the price of things decline during periods of inflation — is that high multiplier items are the ones that tend to increase the most in price.

    It’s therefore puzzling to me that people continue to point to the price increase of certain goods as evidence that deflation is absent… even as they see the value of their assets decline by 20%.

    It’s like claiming the boat isn’t sinking because, “Hey, I still have an oar!”

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/Fed-economy-RATE-sne-funds-deflation/index/a/21739/p/1

  16. DL says:

    Yikes: There’s a piece on how deflation/inflation will play out at Urbandigs.

    “Don’t Count on Manhattan RE as an Inflation Hedge.”

    http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/03/is_inflation_good_for_manhatta.html

  17. jamil says:

    What could go wrong?

    “Just got a press release a little while ago that the Working Families Party has scheduled “a fun, goofy AIG protest” for Saturday that entails chartering a bus to take activists on tours of some employee homes in lower Fairfield County.”

    http://action.workingfamiliesparty.org/t/4020/petition.jsp?petition_KEY=551

  18. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Is today quad witching?

  19. homeboken says:

    “oh, and anecdata:

    took a car service for something yesterday (my first in over two years since i left NYC) and the driver briefly talked about how gloomy it is in their industry:

    1) a lot of his friends are leaving the industry
    2) EVERYONE has who used to use them (and over-use them) has cut-back, significant
    3) there are days he comes to work and has no assignments”

    I take a car when I have to head to the airport for biz, about 4-5 times per month. Every driver (about the last 7) has asked me to take his phone number and request him when I need a ride. I made the mistake a few weeks back, of giving my number to one driver (I had a couple of tanquerays on the flight). He know text messages me every Monday morning asking if I need a ride anytime in during the upcoming week.

  20. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (5)-

    No opinion. House sold. Move on.

  21. jamil says:

    This is starting to resemble Zimbabwe. Printing press and clueless class warfare El Presidente fanning the flames of vigilante justice and his community cronies doing the dirty work, ie showing up at white people’s farms..eh I mean AIG employee’s homes demanding justice.

    All that is missing in Al Sharpton and we get couple of dead bodies, just like in the good old days in the 1990’s.

  22. Clotpoll says:

    Coulda, shoulda, woulda…

    Pass or play.

  23. Clotpoll says:

    yikes (7)-

    This is how we fully become a Third World country (which we already are, IMO).

    Watch the two new growth industries become personal protection and installing glass-encrusted 8′ residential walls.

  24. Sean says:

    #7 Death Threats from the neighbors in tawny Conn? Somehow I don’t think the neighbors are making the threats, has to be internet chat.

  25. Clotpoll says:

    HE (19)-

    Yes. Care to play some SRS calls? :)

  26. Clotpoll says:

    Sean (25)-

    Better they should worry about the people who don’t talk and simply take action when provoked.

  27. Cindy says:

    http://blog.oddhead.com/2009/03/19/jamesburg-new-jersey-per-capita-bank-branch-capital-of-the-world/

    Ran across this re: New Jersey

    “Jamesburg, New Jersey: Per-capita bank branch capital of the world”

  28. Lurker says:

    To Jamil -re 22:

    Hey pal – Thru out history from King Louis XVI & Marie Antoinette, Mr.& Ms Batista, Mr.&Ms.Somoza, Mr.&Ms Duvailier -anytime the ruling class gets full of themselves & are not responsible to their citizens they are asking for it.
    In greek mythology – there were 3 gods that would visit someone -> Fortune -would bring good luck. Followed by Hubris- would make them full of themselves. And finally -Nemesis- would visit & do its retribution.
    The biggest moral question that the elite classes & humans in general have is – Knowing that you smarter & more knowledgeable than the average person- Are you your brothers keeper? or are his enslaver? How you answer will get you peace or as you say class warfare..

  29. Shore Guy says:

    Lurker,

    Thomas jefferson said something about this too. I don’t remember what it was but recall that the OKC bombers wore shirts with the Jefferson statement.

  30. Shore Guy says:

    “Are you your brothers keeper? or are his enslaver?”

    I know what my priest would say. Still, the teachings of Christ often seem little impediment to wanton behavior on the part of my fellow Christians.

  31. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    “eh I mean AIG employee’s homes demanding justice.”

    Has that company even laid anyone off? I’ve read about all these other companies announcing major layoffs and not seen anything from AIG.

  32. lostinny says:

    Happy Spring!

  33. Lurker says:

    ShoreGuy- re#30:

    Jefferson said -not an exact qoute, something like -> Liberty requires that the blood of the ruling class must flow every generation or so.

  34. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Shore,

    You know there’s going to be a few more of those in the coming years. I am not advocating anything but it’s an inevitability that I am not looking forward to watching.

  35. Cindy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/your-money/mortgages/20afford.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

    “U.S. Site Offers Guidance on Mortgage Troubles” NYT

    I think it is called Making Home Affordable.gov…

  36. Clotpoll says:

    lost (33)-

    Fcuk Spring. :)

  37. jamil says:

    I hope the AIG employees who donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to Dodd, Obama and other dems are satisfied now that they can enjoy the 90% tax rate and violent mob is chasing their family members. It’s not that this should be a surprise. You were warned about this. Elections have consequences.

  38. Shore Guy says:

    It looks like there is one more empty housing unit in WI.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/us/20deported.html?ref=us

    And, please let the door hit you on the way out.

  39. Clotpoll says:

    Better to be the bloodletter than the lettee.

  40. Shore Guy says:

    Re Geithner:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/19/opinion/19collins.html?_r=1&em

    snip
    “I am extremely angry at Tim Geithner for being such a baby that he couldn’t scare a bunch of American International Group quants into forgoing their bonuses. We need a Treasury secretary so terrifying that if you were stuck in an elevator alone with him, you would just automatically hand over your wallet and credit cards.”

    snip

  41. Clotpoll says:

    Looks like uber-conservative poser jamil has turned rabble-rouser.

    It’s always the “conservatives” that bug out first. Real conservatives go subterranean at times like now.

  42. chicagofinance says:

    —– Original Message —–
    Sent: Thu Mar 19 20:20:22 2009
    Subject: Tax on Wall Street Bonuses

    Dear ,

    I am writing to strongly encourage you to vote against any bill to excessively tax bonuses of Wall Street employees working for banks who received TARP funding. I believe this would unfairly punish individuals such as me who had nothing to do with the current crisis – as a banker I never made a subprime mortgage, CDO, SIV or any other toxic asset. At XXXXXX, I work in the investment banking division, but specifically in the corporate finance and advisory area working to help businesses grow and prosper. I did not ask for, nor does my business require any taxpayer assistance. Nonetheless, should the current legislation to tax Wall Street bonuses excessively be passed, I would be financially impacted severely. I would undoubtedly be forced to leave New York City and New York given the high cost of living in the area if my compensation above $250,000 were taxed away. I am just one of many in the same boat who work at XXXXXXX and other firms receiving a government investment. We are all disappointed by the events that have transpired at AIG with regard to bonuses, but targeting a specific group of constituents who had nothing to do with this mess hardly seems fair.

    By way of background, I grew up in XXXXXXXXX – the son of a union pipefitter and the first person in my family to go to college. I worked my way through college as an electrician’s helper while tending bar at night and learned the value of hard work. I later was fortunate enough to attend a top ranked business school which I funded through savings and student loans all of which have been paid back. It was my dream to get a job on Wall Street and I have sacrificed a lot in the process working 80-100 hour weeks for the past 12 years. I currently work at XXXXXXX and live XXXXXXXX where my two children attend school and my family is an active member of the community. I believe in the American dream of working hard, treating people like you would like to be treated, and giving back to the community just like everyone else. It is unfair to paint everyone working on Wall Street with a broad brush, especially since most of the people that caused the problem have long been gone. The current tax initiative will only serve to drive away the top people that will be crucial to generating future profits so that the US taxpayers can be paid back quickly on the investment.

    I would be happy to discuss the issues further and as such, please do not hesitate to contact me directly.

  43. Shore Guy says:

    “You know there’s going to be a few more of those in the coming years. I am not advocating anything but it’s an inevitability that I am not looking forward to watching.”

    Indeed, I suspect you are correct. At least B.O. has a close friend from Chicago with experience in home-grown terrorism, so he should be well advised should we see a return to 60s and 70s style domestic terrorism.

  44. Dissident HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    I still get a chuckle when people still get all uppity thinking there’s difference between these crooks because they have an R or D after their name.

  45. Shore Guy says:

    “I did not ask for, nor does my business require any taxpayer assistance. ”

    Chifi,

    If your firm did not get $5B in bailout money from the USG, you are safe. If it did, no offense, but you dont get to have my tax money support your salary. If it means you leave for another firm, so be it, that will be the market punishing the firm in a way the bailout prevented the markets from doing inthe first place.

  46. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (44)-

    When the civil unrest comes, the people fomenting it will not be smoking dope and listening to Hendrix.

    They will be trained, armed and ready to die.

    Get ready.

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Shore Guy says:
    March 20, 2009 at 8:47 am
    “I did not ask for, nor does my business require any taxpayer assistance. ”

    Shore…my client, not me

  48. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (46)-

    The institution is only as good as its worst division and worst employee. With you 100% on this one. Bathwater out, baby out. At the very least, the mob won’t be placated with any less.

    This is really the beginning of the breakup of the overweighted flow of the “best and brightest” to WS. God knows, our economy and infrastructure need many of them to go elsewhere.

    Absent the ability to fashion financial WMD and other Ponzi-like investment “products”, we find the old-fashioned truth is, WS still needs to bounce more people out the door.

  49. Joeycasz says:

    I can’t find the 24 cities anywhere. Does anyone know?

  50. renter says:

    Where are these top income generating executives going to go?

  51. Clotpoll says:

    Somebody needs to tell Michael Steinhardt to stop eating.

  52. chicagofinance says:

    Shore: Just so you understand how arbitrary this nonsense is….two AIG employees perform the exact same function. One is located in CT and the other in London. The London guy would get off…..

    Also, as I think Vic noted yesterday, you would have talent bled out of U.S. banks and into foreign banks on U.S. soil. They are just shooting themselves in the foot.

  53. Barbara says:

    talent? Aren’t we way beyond that argument by now?

  54. Shore Guy says:

    “Shore…my client, not me”

    No offense intended to either of you.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    renter says:
    March 20, 2009 at 8:55 am
    Where are these top income generating executives going to go?

    If you are a rainmaker, then any non-TARP bank or pure play advisory firm. All you need to do is bring your blackberry and laptop.

  56. Clotpoll says:

    chi (54)-

    Let ’em go. Bye.

  57. Clotpoll says:

    chi (57)-

    And, those with real talent- in that scenario- will be fine.

    And, we’ll be fine with a much scaled-down financial services industry.

  58. lostinny says:

    37 Clot
    ALways a ray of sunshine. :)

  59. Cindy says:

    Can someone answer this question for me: How does Geithner envision this TALF thing working?

    Isn’t there a huge potential for fraud? The hedge fund guys can agree to over pay because they are back stopped by the U.S. taxpayer. If they have losses, they write them off.

    So we are buying these toxic assets one way or another – aren’t we?

  60. Clotpoll says:

    It just occurs to me that the AIG guy in London doesn’t get off scot-free.

    He will be living in a country that- at best- will be the last to exit this recession…or the first that dives into all-out depression.

    That could impact job security just a bit.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    “Just so you understand how arbitrary this nonsense is”

    Don’t even get me started on the issue of “arbitrary.” We choose some firms to live and others to die, we lend without strings to some, and not to others. The firms at the heart of this should have been allowed to die and the USG could have capitalized new firms at a lower cost than thring to dsave the old ones. While being cast as an attempt to save folks on main street, the Fed’s actions, and now Treasury’s, have been all about preventing the uber rich from losing their capital — and this is being funded by the 99.999999999999% of us NOT in that category.

    Yes, I do understand the job losses that would occur, and the pain it would cost. Nevertheless, it would have cost less to provide government support, via a CCC or some otherplan to help ordinary Americans get through the hard times. The USG should have declared all dirivative contracts invalid, in an instant trillions of liabilities would have been swept away. Would some uber rich have lost out? I have no doubt the answer is yes. But, they were the ones investing in these instruments and remember what every prospectus says, investing involves risk and there is a chance the investor will lose their capital. Without gutwrenching pain imposed on the miscreants who caused this mess, we will be back here for Meltdown II sooner than any of us can imagine.

  62. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (61)-

    The whole structure of TALF is pure fraud and Ponzi. It’s cash-for-trash, no matter what kind of dress you put on it.

    It is also another in the endless stream of attempts to resuscitate the dead. Securitization is done. Fried. Finished.

    WS and Timmay are staring a scaled-down new financial world, and TALF is the tantrum these babies are throwing in reaction to it.

  63. Shore Guy says:

    “Can someone answer this question for me: How does Geithner envision this TALF thing working?

    Isn’t there a huge potential for fraud?

    Cindy, Cindy, Cindy. C’mon lass. Read your statement aloud. Do you really need this answered by anyone else?

  64. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (63)-

    Anytime you wanna run for Congress, I got your security covered.

    I’d run myself, but I’m fairly sure anarchists don’t stand a good shot at getting elected.

  65. NJGator says:

    Vermont Man: Cheap and Proud of It
    Roy Haynes Relishes Dumpster Diving, Reusing Paper Towels

    He’s a man known by many nicknames — the “frugal fanatic,” “the tycoon of tightwads,” “the cheapest man in America.” And they all make him proud, especially in the current economy.

    Roy Haynes assembled an entire home gym out of items discarded in the road. Vermont’s Roy Haynes wears each of his nicknames as a badge of honor. At 55 years old, he has no debt, no mortgage and no car payments. He doesn’t have a real job, but he earns about $15,000 a year — enough to get by.

    His wife, Lisa Haynes, has endured his penny-pinching ways since he started courting her on the cheap 20 years ago.

    Haynes, ever the romantic, recalled his proposal of marriage.

    “Lisa and I had been living together for a number of years. Then I found out I needed some dental surgery and being a practical guy, I proposed so I could be covered under [Lisa’s] policy,” he said. “The entire wedding cost $70. We stopped by McDonald’s on the way home. The neighbors threw rice. So, naturally I swept it up and cooked it for dinner.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=6002830&page=1

  66. SG says:

    Stop Saving Now!

    As consumers hibernate and investors hoard cash, the economy is withering. This new age of thrift is understandable. But for a recovery to take hold, Americans will need to start taking risks again.

  67. Shore Guy says:

    Regarding TALF:

    It seems to be a situation analogus to vikings having just ransacked and burnt a town and, on the way back to the boat they grab a few valuable shiny objects with which to feather their nests back home. TALF constitutes the shiny objects taken at the end of the raid.

  68. NJGator says:

    Grim – 67 in moderation. Don’t know why. It’s an article about the cheapest man in America.

  69. Clotpoll says:

    I still don’t own as much FXP as I’d like.

    I have to rectify that.

  70. Stu says:

    ChiFi:

    There are some serious issues with the letter, but first and foremost, I agree with the writer’s broad stroke argument.

    1) Why did his company accept FED assistance, if it wasn’t necessary.

    2) He can’t live in New York City on > 250K per year. Move to the burbs ya prick.

    3) It’s great that you were formerly living the ‘American Dream’, but it was your choice to bust your butt. Not everyone who works 100 hours per week makes more than 100K. I could show you pressmen in my company who work 12 hour days for 90 days straight (no days off during peak including weekends) and still don’t break into the 6 figures. Trust me, they are working the American Dream too. About half the industry has been laid off over the last two years and they are not asking for a bailout.

    4) All the people who caused this are long gone? Yup, that’s a pretty weak justification there. Last I checked, none of these imbeciles were even slapped on the wrist.

    5) Drive the top people away who are necessary to make sure the FED gets a return on their investment? Come on, I ponder if Wall Street has actually ever helped anyone but themselves.

    What needs to happen is for IBs to go bye bye. Some of the ill-gotten gains needs to be recovered. Some of the perps need to go to jail and finally, compensation needs to be inline with performance and not grossly exaggerated. We need to get away from financial alchemy and get back to the old mom and pop model of banks charging higher interest rates on loans than they pay out on savings. How really does leverage help anyone except for the Wall Street Fraternity that runs away with the profit on the up market and requires tax payer bailouts in the down market. These are the issues that need to be addressed.

    It ain’t gonna happen though. Not with our current form of government that is run by the best lobbyists money can buy. It helps that Wall Street was responsible for 40% of our former GDP. They have enough money to buy anything off for eternity.

  71. Clotpoll says:

    SG (67)-

    You go first.

  72. Cindy says:

    (65) (66) Clot/Shore –

    THEN WHY ARE THESE IDIOTS PURSUING A FAILED MODEL?

    Don’t they have any other ideas?

    I, as an American taxpayer, don’t want this stuff. If Geithner can’t come up with a plan, we better get someone who can.

    Geithner comes from the New York Fed – and they were beholdin to the bankers. WELL HE WORKS FOR US NOW!

  73. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (71)-

    Love your #5. Like any of these outfits (especially AIG) will, in the end, do anything other than slowly implode…leaving us with a pile of smoldering wreckage and a giant bill coming due for our children.

  74. Shore Guy says:

    Clot,

    If I could line up 1,000 people to donate $100 and 100 people to doante $1,000, I would give it a go. I am tired of the level of discourse I see and the level of critical analysis exhibitted by so many of our representatives.

    Let us go forth, from this time and place and proclaim the end of congressional pensions for anyone elected or reelected to congress after (insert date here). With the “quality” of legislation and oversight coming out of DC in recent years, I will take my chances with “inexperienced” new people.

  75. chicagofinance says:

    Sent: Fri Mar 20 08:06:08 2009
    Subject: Fed Treasury Purchase Program – Implications

    Please see attached a research piece from our US Rate Strategy The Fed’s New Treasury Purchase Program – Perspectives and Implications

    Summary:
    The Fed joined other global central banks in initiating a program to purchase $300 billion of Treasuries over the next six months. The program would lower the net Treasury supply increase in the next six months by only 19%. Given these relatively modest numbers, we believe the bulk of the decline in Treasury yield as a result of the Treasury QE program may have already occurred.

    In the attached our rate strategy team examine the Fed’s new Treasury purchase program in the following contexts:
    * Global Perspective – Other QE Programs
    * Fed’s Treasury QE Program in the Context of Treasury Market, Treasury Supply, and Other Fed Purchase Programs
    * Who Benefits From the Fed Buying Treasuries?
    * Where and How Much
    * Direct Market Impact: Swap Spread Widening and TIPS Outperformance
    * Foreign Investor Interest in Treasuries May Be Waning as Fed

    Final Thought – The Treasury QE Bark May Be More Effective than Its Bite

    The Fed’s $300 billion Treasury purchase program constitutes only 14% of the qualifying public Treasury debt in the 2- to 10-yr sector and would only reduce net Treasury issuance in the next six months by 19%. This puts the huge post-announcement Treasury rally in perspective and supports our view that the bulk of the decline in Treasury yield as a result of the Treasury QE program may have already occurred.

    Will keep you posted on developments.

  76. Clotpoll says:

    Cindy (76)-

    I hate to let you in on a secret, but there are only about 2-3 people in DC that work for us. The rest are owned and completely controlled by banks, WS and/or corporate America.

    TALF is the ultimate proof of that. It’s the final stage of the daylight bank robbery of America. Once it implodes, it’s back to the Stone Ages.

    “Geithner comes from the New York Fed – and they were beholdin to the bankers. WELL HE WORKS FOR US NOW!”

  77. Stu says:

    Shore Guy:

    Put me down for $1,000!

  78. Shore Guy says:

    “THEN WHY ARE THESE IDIOTS PURSUING A FAILED MODEL?”

    Cindy, look over the financial disclosure forms for a randomly-selected group of Representatives and Senators. Months ago I posted a link to some for people who stood foursquare behind TARP. One finds that many have huge investments in financial services companies, they have huge credit card balances, and they have huge mortgages and equity loans. Many, it seems, run their own finances the way the run the finances of the USG, and they were protecting themselves with our money. Assistance to the rest of us, strikes me, was a colatteral benefit.

  79. comrade nom deplume says:

    [12] still,

    Bingo. Let me know when you want one of those for yourself.

  80. Victorian says:

    “While being cast as an attempt to save folks on main street, the Fed’s actions, and now Treasury’s, have been all about preventing the uber rich from losing their capital — and this is being funded by the 99.999999999999% of us NOT in that category.”

    Well put, Sir.

  81. Shore Guy says:

    “Final Thought – The Treasury QE Bark May Be More Effective than Its Bite”

    Chifi,

    I take it you have read Big Ben’s and Timmy’s statements about the 1930s and how the folks in charge then did not act swiftly enough. I believe that Big Ben’s academic specialization was the Great Depression.

    These folks would rather do lots and lots of things that do not work than bee seen has having fiddled whilst Rome burnt. They have confused activity for effective action. They are to the point of drilling holes in the hull of a sinking boat in an effort to “let the water out.” Hey, it might not work, but, at least they were DOING SOMETHING.

  82. NJGator says:

    FROM TPM:

    The Bonuses Scam Ain’t New
    Longtime reader checks in:

    There are all sorts of accounting reasons that firms hand out much of their compensation in the form of bonuses, but those incentives, like the bonuses themselves, stem from historic practice. Most Wall Street firms began as partnerships, not as publicly-owned corporations. Partnerships apportion their profits at the end of their fiscal year; that practice has remained the norm, even though shareholders (or, in the case of AIG, taxpayers) now own these corporations.
    And that’s really the nub of the problem. Most Wall Street firms have gone public; at the same time, many public banks have entered the Wall Street game. But corporate governance, compensation, and accountability haven’t kept pace. In essence, these firms offloaded most of their risk to shareholders, but continued to be run in an insular fashion, and to divert the great bulk of their surplus revenues to their workers and executives. In the bubble years, enough cash rolled in that the complaints were muted – executives and traders took it home in wheelbarrows, and the share prices still went up.

    But those working on Wall Street have come to regard their bonuses – their traditional share of the profits – as guaranteed compensation. They want the rewards of ownership with the security of employment. And that’s just unsustainable.

    When it comes time to sort through the wreckage, and to erect a more sustainable model, I hope we pay a little more attention to corporate governance. That those who own the corporation – shareholders – have long had little say in its operation is a scandal. It’s been driven home this week by the realization that simply substituting ‘taxpayer’ for ‘shareholder’ does nothing to change the locus of corporate power – in either case, it rests less with the owners than with the board and executive suite. And, all too often, those groups pursue interests divergent from those of the ownership. Levying a tax on undeserved compensation is a bromide – it makes us feel better, but neither solves the problem nor prevents its recurrence. The real solution lies in ensuring that corporations are run in the long-term interests of their owners, not to line the pockets of their executives.

    –David Kurtz
    http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/03/the_bonuses_scam_aint_new.php

  83. Stu says:

    “and this is being funded by the 99.999999999999% of us NOT in that category.”

    And the 1% is up in arms that O-man wants to roll back the Bush tax cuts.

  84. Clotpoll says:

    chi (79)-

    I think what this is really saying is that the Fed’s most recent expansion of its balance sheet- in relationship to the size of the problem at hand- is so minimal as to be ineffective in a solution of the runaway deflation we’re suffering.

    If you look at the final AIG number as being 1 tr on the low side…and 2-5 tr on the high side, the Fed’s shock-and-awe looks more like a bottle rocket.

    If QE is the way to go, let the Fed inject 14 tr- immediately- directly into the hands of average Americans.

    Anything less than that? Let me sleep.

  85. NJGator says:

    Krugman on the tax bill:

    AIG
    Preliminary thoughts on the tax bill:

    1. It’s not the way you should make policy — it’s clumsy, and it will punish some innocent parties while letting the most guilty off scot-free

    2. But — there wasn’t much alternative at this point. And for that I blame the Obama people.

    I’ll leave to others the question of who knew or should have known that the bonus firestorm was coming; but it’s part of a pattern. At every stage, Geithner et al have made it clear that they still have faith in the people who created the financial crisis — that they believe that all we have is a liquidity crisis that can be undone with a bit of financial engineering, that “governments do a bad job of running banks” (as opposed, presumably, to the wonderful job the private bankers have done), that financial bailouts and guarantees should come with no strings attached.

    This was bad analysis, bad policy, and terrible politics. This administration, elected on the promise of change, has already managed, in an astonishingly short time, to create the impression that it’s owned by the wheeler-dealers. And that leaves it with no ability to counter crude populism.

  86. jamil says:

    heck, just got the dreaded call from my boss overseas (today we are laying off people left and right). Anyway, just informed that I’m safe. Close call, but apartment hunting can continue.

  87. Clotpoll says:

    If re-flation is really a valid economic concept- and nobody really fears inflation- print and distribute 14 tr.

    Let’s see what happens then.

  88. Shore Guy says:

    “these firms offloaded most of their risk to shareholders, but continued to be run in an insular fashion, and to divert the great bulk of their surplus revenues to their workers and executives. ”

    Bingo. I used to see the reports of the percentage of revenues that went to the employees and found it obscene for public companies.

  89. Barbara says:

    This time period is going to make Nixon/Vietnam era disillusionment look like a 16 year old’s PMS.

  90. Stu says:

    Anyone here think the great depression 2 (electric bugaloo) isn’t coming? Besides bi and Frank?

  91. Stu says:

    Shore Guy… Take a look at the CEO’s take at Nabors. Pretty soon, his compensation is going to be greater than the total earnings of his company. And the shareholders are absolutely powerless.

  92. Clotpoll says:

    Shore (85)-

    All in an effort not to be compared to Herbert Hoover, long after they are dead.

    Why doesn’t anyone focus on how vain and full of themselves Bergabe, Timmay, etc are? The preening and the hubris are gut-wrenching…almost as much as the slow-mo destruction of the US over which they preside.

  93. Clotpoll says:

    SRS ripping it.

  94. Clotpoll says:

    Get ready for a lot of this kind of announcement from REITS:

    NEW YORK, March 20 (Reuters) – Shares of Simon Property Group Inc fell 7.5 percent to $31.80 on Friday after the real estate investment trust announced plans for concurrent offerings of about 15 million shares of common stock and about $500 million of senior notes due 2019.

    I like my crappy RE diluted, thank you.

  95. Cindy says:

    (86) Gator – Thank you. That explains a lot.

    “They want the rewards of ownership with the security of employment. And that’s just unsustainable.”

    “The real solution lies in ensuring that corporations are run in the long-term interests of their owners, not to line the pockets of their executives.”

    Now if we could just get the government to focus on long-term objectives…

  96. Victorian says:

    “This administration, elected on the promise of change, has already managed, in an astonishingly short time, to create the impression that it’s owned by the wheeler-dealers.”

    I don’t think it is an impression, it is a fact.

  97. Shore Guy says:

    Stu/Clot,

    If I am still as fed up with the goings-on in DC next wek as I am today, I will consult with an attorney who specializes in elections law and see if there is any way to accept donations into escrow and only fully accept them if by a certain date the $200,000 threshold is met, otherwise return the funds.

    To raise that sort of money would require people from both parties, and in the middle, from all over the country to say, “I am fed up, and here is a guy, who, even if he is in a different party from mine, will advocate for fundamental changes, regardless of the impliations for quality office space, plumb assignments, yadda, yadda.”

    It is time for more of us to say enough is enough and to retire the current political class. Their “experience” has not guided us all that well or prevented monumental — and forseeable mistakes from being made during this economic crisis.

  98. grim says:

    Anyone here think the great depression 2 (electric bugaloo) isn’t coming?

    Zeitgeist is all this is, Stu.

    Remember when it was stylish to dig a fallout shelter in your back yard?

    Or stockpile Cipro in your ice chest because we were sure to all get Anthrax.

  99. grim says:

    Even if you thought the GD2 was coming, it would probably be more effective to network and ensure that you are in a position to keep your job than it would to stockpile guns or ammo.

  100. Shore Guy says:

    “Now if we could just get the government to focus on long-term objectives…”

    Thake away pensions from all elected officials — except Pres and VP.

  101. Stu says:

    Cindy,

    “Now if we could just get the government to focus on long-term objectives…”

    You have way to much faith in the government. Do you think our government exists to help us and more than Wall Street?

    It’s just another fraternity house. There are a few other fraternities out there as well. The insurance fraternity, the law fraternity and to a lesser extent, the medical fraternity (mainly the drug makers and PPO provider crowd SL, so don’t fret).

  102. comrade nom deplume says:

    Cheery Off Topic thought for the day:

    This morning, I was reading the online ABA Journal, and an attorney advocated for unionization of lawyers. He admitted it would be a tough task because most lawyers were somewhat conservative and served the “capitalist class.”

    It reminded me of what I have seen a lot of recently, and as a setup, I post for your consideration, a quote I came upon last year, from Norman Thomas, who is considered America’s premiere 20th century socia-list leader:

    “The American people will never knowingly adopt soc-ialism, but under the name of liberalism they will adopt every fragment of the soc-ialist program until one day America will be a soc-ialist nation without ever knowing how it happened.”

    At the time, I thought this summed up my feelings exactly, and it was right in sync with my long-held prediction as to where we would head when the obviously bad financial choices we made finally caught up with us (and, IMHO, those things haven’t even come to pass yet, and which were a primary motivation for the greed we have seen in the last 15 years as everyone tried to find a chair before the music stopped).

    However, in light of the things I read on various blogs, newspapers, etc., and in conversations with people, Thomas and I were wrong in one respect: America can, and it seems increasingly likely that it will, accept socia-lism openly.

    All that remains to be seen is what form it will take.

    Back to work.

  103. Sastry says:

    Clot… [Re #5 on good bid price for Red Bud]

    Thanks. Was trying to use it for calibration. I guess each case is different, so watch this space for some more properties with questions headed your way.

    S

  104. Shore Guy says:

    When I hear the disingenuous statements coming out of the mouths of Timmy, Bennie (and as we know the phrase is “Bennie go home,) not from me but from many), Barney, etc., it makes one wonder WWDT (What would Diogenes think)?

    One suspects he would not be puting down his lantern anytime soon. Of course, his practice of living in a barrel may have some relevance to the short-term future if we do not stop the nonsense going on in Washington.

  105. Cindy says:

    For what it’s worth – I’m with Grim. I’m mad. I agree with Shore that we need to curtail the elected officials, but – I’m not giving up on our ability to sort through the newly-unmasked crap. It will take a while – we have to try everything else first. But eventually we will do the right thing – Or whatever it was that Churchill said.

  106. confused in nj says:

    Didn’t take Obama long to change into Bush on Speed.

  107. comrade nom deplume says:

    [51] shore,

    Good article. I went to Park City last month, and we booked the place two weeks prior at half its regular asking rate. Used VRBO.com, which I have had good luck with.

    Entire complex was dead as a tomb. Great time to take a vacation on the cheap. Also cashed out all my USAirways miles before they go belly up.

  108. Stu says:

    Nabors story:

    http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/steffy/4934255.html

    And this here is the problem with capitalism.

    I would love to know how much Isenberg paid in taxes last year. Bet it’s a much lower percentage than I did.

  109. comrade nom deplume says:

    [112] stu

    If it was mostly capital gain or qualified dividend income, you are correct.

  110. comrade nom deplume says:

    [108] shore

    Diogenes sold his lamp on eBay years ago.

  111. Outofstater says:

    #93 Hey, Barbara. How are you doing?

  112. Outofstater says:

    #114 Diogenes’ lamp: LOL. Love it!

  113. comrade nom deplume says:

    [36] lurker

    something about the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

    I don’t think the sentiment was the same. But I enjoyed your greek parable and will research it for my use. Okay if I steal your parable?

  114. Cindy says:

    Thank you for all of your posts – for your information. I actually had no idea until globbing onto this site that any of this was going on.

    If it comes to that, I’m prepared to tear out the lantana and lawn, plant my garden, and survive the best I can. But the American public has only recently become aware of any of this. Righteous indignation is only starting to set in.

    I’m probably viewed as a naive Pollyanna. That’s just the way it is. Have a great day.

  115. Shore Guy says:

    “However, in light of the things I read on various blogs, newspapers, etc., and in conversations with people, Thomas and I were wrong in one respect: America can, and it seems increasingly likely that it will, accept socia-lism openly”

    Nom,

    Soc-ial-ism in the “benevolent” form we think of from Scandinavia and other parts of Europe, emerges from people who are optimistic about their nation’s future prospects and a desire to spread the future wealth. Bolshevism and National Soci-al-ism, are born out of fear and an attempt by fearful or angry populations to get a piece of the existing pie. Which of these two alternatives most reflects where we are now.

    We are on the cusp of some very dangerous times. For generations the people of this country took actions (fiscal, military, industrial) that would make our founders proud. in recent years, we have abandoned fiscal sanity, lived today on the financial backs of our posterity instead of providing for them, we have squandered our industrial superiority, and our “political class” has poorly represrented our nation’s interest. Many people have lost respect for our institutions, except for the military, and since 9-11 fear has spread (and has been fanned by our “leaders”) and we have sat by while legislation dangerous to liberty becomes the law of the land and our president openly flaunted the Constitution.

    If we do not open our eyes we run the risk of waking up to January 30, 1933; the only question will be, “What will be our Reichstag fire”?

  116. Shore Guy says:

    “Diogenes sold his lamp on eBay years ago”

    I think Palen said he listed it there but ended up trading it for a lava lamp at a swap meet.

  117. Shore Guy says:

    One more dreary note before I go to make some money:

    Hitler became dictator by an overwehlming vote of an elected legislative body.

  118. Clotpoll says:

    Is Reichstag one of the finalists on Americal Idol?

  119. jamil says:

    CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER:

    That’s $165 million in bonus money handed out to AIG debt manipulators who may be the only ones who know how to defuse the bomb they themselves built. Now, in the scheme of things, $165 million is a rounding error. It amounts to less than 1/18,500 of the $3.1 trillion federal budget. It’s less than one-tenth of 1 percent of the bailout money given to AIG alone. If Bill Gates were to pay these AIG bonuses every year for the next 100 years, he’d still be left with more than half his personal fortune.

    For this we are going to poison the well for any further financial rescues, face the prospect of letting AIG go under (which would make the Lehman Brothers collapse look trivial) and risk a run on the entire world financial system? . . . If you thought the AIG hysteria was a display of populist cynicism directed at a relative triviality, consider this: There are more than 6.5 million trucks in the United States. The program Congress terminated allowed 97 Mexican trucks to roam among them. Ninety-seven! Shutting them out not only undermines NAFTA. It caused Mexico to retaliate with tariffs on 90 goods affecting $2.4 billion in U.S. trade coming out of 40 states

  120. Jim says:

    Notice how the public is now up in arms and organized against the ‘rich’ bonus earners. Notice the amount that is deemed for you to be wealthy. Now that the community organizer has organized the public against the rich, collecting YOUR money later on is going to be easy. What is the amount of money that O said that makes you wealthy enough to have you money redistributed? This is playing out like a bad movie. What are so fcuked.

  121. jamil says:

    Jim: Isn’t it now $150k (if single) and you are labeled rich and enemy of the people (so 90% taxrate is fine)?

    “First they came for people earning 150k, and I did nothing..”

  122. Victorian says:

    Well, this morning’s intelligent discourse was too good to last. See ya in the evening guys.

  123. Clotpoll says:

    As usual, the tedious jamil busts in and the party ends.

    Jamil, there really are other blogs more suited to your interests.

  124. make money says:

    SRS ripping it.

    Clot,

    We’ll see $100 this month. We may even set some new highs this time around.

  125. Stu says:

    Yup…

    “First they came for people earning 150k, and I did nothing..”

    Your credibility is worse than shot. (insert rhetorical who cares here)

    Worst part of the whole thing is that I doubt Jammin Jamil even makes 6 figures, but he can’t see how his teachers have brainwashed him into thinking that protecting the rich somehow benefits him.

  126. Al says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 9:34 am
    If re-flation is really a valid economic concept- and nobody really fears inflation- print and distribute 14 tr.

    Let’s see what happens then.

    Goverment is already doing it..

    It is just they distribute it to their friends/supporters… Not to everybody.

    But national debt goes to everybody.

  127. Clotpoll says:

    Mikey’s unique take:

    THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2009
    Rain or Pee?
    Client Email – 2:30PM

    I know you want market wisdom and you want to know what is next. Well . . . I don’t know. And anyone that tells you they know what is going to happen today and tomorrow . . . is lying. My line in the sand is still there. I don’t care if Bully Bernanke kicked sand in my eyes yesterday. He cheated. And he didn’t change anything . . . except to make things worse for this country and the world. Refusing to accept the consequences of our conduct . . . and attempting to just do more of the same old nonsense . . . only makes things worse. Period. Full Stop. End of Discussion. No need to waste anymore time discussing the consequences of what he did yesterday . . . hyperinflation down the road, and the chance to buy super high yielding bonds. Remember the high yields of the early 80’s when we saw 18% bonds? I can’t even contemplate what we will see this time. But I guess it is all relative.

    Any way, here is its 2:30PM, just about the time I put my foot in my mouth yesterday. I’m not going to do that today. I have no pearls of wisdom for the market today. Our stock picks are all still sound. I stand by them all. We are not getting killed with margin calls like the last time we dipped on the roller coaster. We are also not leveraging up, so we are not going to have as healthy a bounce back, but that is just fine for this market.

    And if you want me to comment on AIG or what Bernanke did yesterday or the FDIC nonsense today or Carney Frank or the aid to Detroit Suppliers or the Bond Buying Binge or the fact that yesterday GM said they did not need the $2B, but today GM and Chrysler are asking for $22B . . . let me just say, there is more than enough in the news and nonsensical chatter to go around. Every now and then, you need to take a step back and take a few deep breaths. You need to clean your eye-glasses and maybe put on sun glasses. Every now and then you just need to stop and watch the show. That’s all we need to do now, because the show is totally out of control, and everyone wants in . . . Geraldo Rivera is now a financial expert, as is Anderson Cooper, Lou Dobbs, Glen Beck, Jay Leno, Jimmy Fallon and Bill O’reilly and Chris Matthews. Tomorrow morning we will talk about what is going on, and I will be discussing a lot of things you will not hear in the media. For now let me talk to you about a more serious subject . . . Rain and Pee Pee.

    Without rain, crops don’t grow and productive land turns to desert. Without money, our financial system comes to a halt. But there is a difference between good money and bad money, just like there is a difference between rain and pee pee. My very wise grandfather would say in Yiddish to one of his unscrupulous suppliers . . . Du kannst nicht auf meinem rucken pishen unt mir sagen class es regen ist.

    This translates as . . . You can’t pee on my back and tell me it is rain. Ben Bernanke, Hank Paulson and Tim “the tax cheat” have been peeing on our backs, and telling us it is rain. They want us to believe giving all this money to Wall Street will produce crops like rain on a field. But they don’t explain that they are giving the good money (rain) to Wall Street and Bad Bankers. They don’t explain that they are promising us bad money (pee pee) – the inflated money we will be dealing with for years to come.

    Rain or Pee? Bernanke wants us to believe it is rain. But what Bernanke just did was agree to buy up toxic assets from banks and put them in the Federal coffers for you, me and everyone else to worry about later. Bernanke also made Bill Gross, Mohamed El-Irian and Paul McCulley at PIMPCO very wealthy men. I should say much wealthier men, because these three guys have been pimping the Fed all along. The trillion dollars ol’ Ben is going to spend is not rain . . . it is pee. And it is really stinky pee at that.

    We are just like the passengers on the Titanic (United States of America) that thought that the ship was unsinkable, and would stay afloat until they were rescued. Many stayed behind thinking . . . “why get into those cold lifeboats on this unsinkable ship, when I can sit here, listen to music and have another drink.” Just like we are sitting back and asking for another fix of borrowed cash, because surely Bernanke (a student of the Depression) has it right . . . this time. Once the crew of the Titanic started firing off the rockets, the passengers came out of their denial and of course chaos ensued. There is no one out there to rescue us. Period. Full Stop. End of Transmission.

    And I will close with one my Grandfather saved for the really foolish folks that were running around doing things with no idea what the ramifications would be of their actions, then having their actions come back to stink them up . . . Er drayt sich arum vie a fortz in russell. This roughly translates to – He wanders around aimlessly like a fart in a barrel. This best describes Bernanke, Tim “the tax cheat” and Bair. Even more accurately, it describes Carney Frank, Chris “the con man” Dodd and most of Congress. But it does NOT describe Paulson. King Henry knew exactly what he was doing from start to finish . . . from the day he approved the creation of derivatives of death, as CEO of Goldman Sachs, till the day he wrapped up his stint as Treasury Secretary . . . where he finished off the world financial markets by handing out what he had not already stolen in the world of derivatives. Tune in a few minutes early for the call tomorrow. We lead off with some music again.

    As for the rest of the day . . . turn it all off and go for a walk. Take a nap. Read a book. Don’t look at the market and tune out the talking idiots on TV.

  128. schlivo says:

    Thank goodness that existing homes sales data is due out Monday morning. Maybe we’ll have some discussion about real estate on this real estate blog. Wouldn’t that be refreshing?

  129. Clotpoll says:

    Al (130)-

    Doesn’t matter. My point is, if they really want to pursure re-flation as a serious remedy, Wednesday’s Fed action is not a fraction of what must be done.

    I do agree with you that the whole re-flation thingy has to put massive amounts of money directly into the hands of John Q in order to have any counter-deflationary effect at all.

    Right now, the deflation continues unabated, because all the money goes onto some mortally-damaged balance sheet or completes a short, negative, 0-multiplier feedback loop right back to its issuer.

  130. still_looking says:

    “Carney Frank”

    Priceless.

    sl

  131. Clotpoll says:

    schlivo (132)-

    This IS real estate. If you can’t see the connection, sorry.

  132. Clotpoll says:

    Fiat paper and debt instruments deflate rapidly.

    Tangible goods and commodities inflate rapidly.

    Gubmint tries desperately to create artificial floor under a sui generis asset class.

    Ruh-roh.

  133. Pat says:

    I wonder if these guys can do some work on banks?
    http://washingtondc.craigslist.org/doc/fuo/1083524279.html

  134. SG says:

    Obama’s Busted Bank Bailout
    by Jack Rasmus

    The fiscal stimulus side of the Obama program is clearly a case of ‘too little too late’. It fails to address the central need of massive job creation. It lacks in both magnitude and composition of its focus. A second stimulus package within a year is inevitable.

  135. Pat says:

    “Finally it’s time for the back or the arms to come off. To do that, you need the big guns.”

  136. make money says:

    Schivo,

    You wanna talk about real estate. let’s talk.

    Take a job in Asia or middle east,come back in 2012 see the carnage and then say ” What do you mean by must sell by weekend make best offer”

  137. still_looking says:

    Clot 133

    Right now, the deflation continues unabated, because all the money goes onto some mortally-damaged balance sheet or completes a short, negative, 0-multiplier feedback loop right back to its issuer.

    aka a “black hole?”

    sl

  138. schlivo says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 10:50 am
    schlivo (132)-

    “This IS real estate. If you can’t see the connection, sorry.”

    Yeah Clot. I know. It’s all connected. It just seems that the lengthy political rants are getting to be just a bit much. But I’ll shut up now and defer to Grim who expressed a similar sentiment very recently.

  139. Clotpoll says:

    Oh yeah…this is going to end well. But, hey: it’s not their fault; it’s all those nasty short-sellers:

    Greg Burns, Chicago Tribune
    March 20, 2009

    You might think that even in a deep recession, retail icons like Water Tower Place would be holding their own.

    You’d be right, but it may not keep the Chicago shopping center out of bankruptcy—along with Boston’s Faneuil Hall, New York’s South Street Seaport and Honolulu’s Ala Moana Center.

    Some of the nicest malls around could be in Chapter 11 within hours, unless parent General Growth Properties Inc. wins another last-minute reprieve from its lenders.

    Everybody has heard about toxic assets, those bad loans clogging the nation’s financial system. General Growth has the flip side: great assets, drowning in debt.

    This Chicago-based real estate giant has stopped paying some of its bills, and has avoided bankruptcy so far only because the lenders have cooperated. But it has billions of dollars in loans coming due, and a deadline Friday for a partial extension. Without it, a costly court-supervised workout may be inevitable.

    All across the commercial real estate business, playing for time has become an art form. Debt payments can’t be made if nobody has the money. Refinancing can’t happen if nobody is lending. Assets can’t be sold if nobody is buying.

    So everybody’s stuck.

    General Growth’s trophy properties have held up despite the collapse of retail sales. Typically, regional shopping centers weather downturns better than office buildings or strip malls, thanks to high-quality tenants and long-term leases.

    But General Growth is paying the price for a spending spree, including a $12 billion deal for Rouse Co. in 2004.

    Crucially, it failed to pay down debt in the years that followed. At 92 percent of book value, its debt load is way too heavy for hard times.

    John Bucksbaum, a second-generation member of the family that founded the company, stepped down as chief executive late last year after voicing confidence almost to the end. The sinking economy is “no reason to set off the alarms and abandon ship,” he told Wall Street analysts less than a year ago. “I remain very enthusiastic about our business.”

    By November, the stock had plunged from around $40 to 40 cents. Shares closed Thursday at 50 cents, down 19 percent on the day.

    “It’s definitely a sad story,” said Linda Phelps, analyst at Standard & Poor’s, who earlier this week cut the company’s debt rating to a rock-bottom D. “They have very nice assets. I would expect somebody would own Faneuil Hall and Water Tower.”

    One potential buyer is Simon Property Group in Indianapolis, a mall operator that avoided the debt trap. Analysts have speculated that boss David Simon would snap up Fashion Show and other Las Vegas malls that General Growth has tried to unload. At the end of January, Simon flatly denied any interest.

    These crown-jewel malls aren’t going away, but they can’t be taken for granted, either. Americans are making a smaller proportion of their purchases at malls, and more at big-box merchants such as Wal-Mart. They’re bored with the sameness and predictability of the typical indoor shopping-center experience.

    Cinnamon buns? Again?

    When competing retail options come along, or mall owners cut back hours and services, crowds drift away, said Brian Florence, whose DeadMalls.com Web site chronicles the zombie shopping centers lurking among the suburban sprawl. “It’s a cycle,” he explained.

    For now, and probably for a while yet to come, the cycle is headed down.

  140. SG says:

    http://www.AuctionMyOwnHome.com is a new free service for sellers looking for a much faster sale of their home. Although property auctions continue to generate more than $200 billion in transactions per year, the site helps individual sellers of single family homes and condos to also be included, often as quickly as 30 days.

  141. Shore Guy says:

    22.2% unemployment in Det! Egads! It was 8.2% in Jan 2008.

  142. zieba says:

    With everything rolling over and a generous amount of government intervention, it’s tough to talk RE in perpetuity.

    Everyone here called the crash before it actually happened, now they’ve shifted their attention to asset/capital preservation and to a certain degree, defense in times of social unrest… Wouldn’t it be a bytch if their predictions came true a few years from now?

  143. Clotpoll says:

    sl (141)-

    Surely, you jest. Everyone knows jamil is the real black hole. :)

  144. still_looking says:

    “New Jersey Real Estate Report”
    Real Estate, Economics, and Politics

    Perhaps missed the fine print under the title?

    We also discuss guns, strollers, tires, car repairs, legal actions, wines(!) and diseases….

    I don’t have a problem with that…that’s why I come here. As with other discontented folks…. um. there’s lotsa other places you could go.

    Those that stay here, kinda like it here– and express it with our wallets not just our IP addresses.

    sl

    oh. forgot… [/rant]

  145. Clotpoll says:

    zieba (146)-

    How do you throw a proper riot in a city where there’s nothing left to burn down?

    Take it to the suburbs?

  146. Clotpoll says:

    sl (148)-

    Don’t forget soccer.

  147. Stu says:

    Clot…you are the only one here to discuss soccer…often with yourself ;)

  148. make money says:

    Stu,

    I agree no many care about soccer. Am I in the same position with the Knicks?

  149. chicagofinance says:

    doh!

    Barclays Agrees to Return Lehman-Logoed Knickknacks for Sale
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aUjBeJZj6Y4E&refer=us

  150. schlivo says:

    “Those that stay here, kinda like it here– and express it with our wallets not just our IP addresses.”

    As do I.

  151. SG says:

    Americans fear home price drop accelerating

    U.S. homeowners surveyed by Reuters and University of Michigan predicted their home values would fall by 2.2 percent in the year ahead, the biggest anticipated decline in the past few years.

    This predicted decline in March was steeper than the expected average fall of 1.9 percent in February.

    Concerns that home value depreciation will intensify underscored the severe damage to consumer psychology stemming from the bursting of the housing bubble, heavy losses in the stock market and massive job losses.

  152. HEHEHE says:

    As was pointed out earlier, if your Rep or Senator is not recieving money from financial institutions their other wealthy donors are having these institutions manage their money.

    If an AIG goes down the negative impact on Goldman would be too much for their other wealthy donors. The same can be said re Berkshire. If BAC/WELLS/AmEX go down Berkshire tanks and many wealthy people get spanked.

    Essentially when they say they want to preserve the financial system they mean they want to protect the assets of the wealthy in this country. They’ll create these side shows over these AIG bonuses when they amount of money involved is equivalent to a rain drop in the middle of the ocean of debt the government is creating and/or adding to its balance sheet.

    This is precisely the reason Bergabe wants to defeat deflation by attempting to reignite inflation. In a deflation all boats sink but the wealthy feel more of a hit as they own way more assets. In an inflation that pain is felt way more by the middle class and the poor as the amount of assets they own is far less in comparison to the wealthy.

    If you are middle class or poor in this country you need to wake up and see who’s pulling the strings behind the dog and pony shows in DC. I am not saying these AIG bonuses aren’t outrageous but it’s nothing being compared to what’s going on in broad daylight behind the acronym’s TARP, TALF, etc

  153. Shore Guy says:

    SG,

    Do they have any historical data with respect to what homeowners expected and what actually happened?

  154. Clotpoll says:

    Is anyone with me that this has got to be one of the signs of the apocalypse?:

    LONDON -(Dow Jones)- U.S.-based Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is planning to issue a 25-year, sterling-denominated benchmark bond, one of the banks working on the deal said Friday.

    Price guidance on the forthcoming issue has been set at 200-210 basis points over gilts.

    Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Holdings PLC, Credit Suisse Group, Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Scotland Group have been hired as lead managers for the deal.

    The bond is expected to be priced later Friday, subject to market conditions.

    Wal-Mart’s decision to tap the primary bond market comes swift on the heels of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee decision to buy government bonds and private-sector assets including commercial paper, in a bid to increase money supply.

    Wednesday, the MPC outlined eligible bonds that it could purchase in the secondary bond market, including four Wal-Mart bonds due January 2013, December 2030, September 2035 and January 2039.

    The issuer is rated Aa2 by Moody’s Investors Service and double-A by Standard & Poor’s Corp., and Fitch Ratings.

  155. Pat says:

    speaking of diseases (you brought it up), my daughter is being treated for acid reflux. She had a bad URI in Jan (no antibiotics), and subsequently developed night coughs while sleeping, with recurring daily stomach pain. Just finished two weeks of prevacid. Still clearing throat and coughing with exercise, but no pain. Do I take her back? Wait? H-pylori test? What is up with this?

  156. SG says:

    Will the Fed’s Actions Revive Housing?

    The bad news is that home prices are likely to keep falling, although perhaps at a slower rate, as the government’s programs begin to gain traction. The Fed’s newest efforts to lift home demand should complement other government initiatives to revive housing and slow the decline in home prices. Analysts believe the Housing Affordability and Stability Plan has the potential to reduce foreclosures and boost refinancing. Refi activity has fallen off in recent weeks, despite low mortgage rates, suggesting that many homeowners may be holding back, waiting for the new program. That, plus lower rates as a result of Fed actions, could result in a refi boom this summer, which would lower payments for many homeowners and act like a tax cut.

    The biggest problem working against housing right now is the recession. Unemployment is sure to head higher this year, pushing many potential buyers out of the market and scaring off many others who fear losing their jobs. Even as Washington continues to lay the groundwork for a housing turnaround, any upturn is sure to be slow in coming.

  157. still_looking says:

    shlivo 155 “Those that stay here, kinda like it here– and express it with our wallets not just our IP addresses.”

    As do I.

    Those that stay here, kinda like it here

    As you don’t?

    No one here forces the direction of this blog… it’s quite voluntary. We tolerate trolls of every sort, rants, etc.

    Again, I say.

    Don’t like it? Don’t come.

    Like it? Stay. But don’t attempt to force your will on the rest of us.

    If jb doesn’t agree he’ll moderate heavy-handedly, with whatever consequences that follow.

    sl

  158. sas says:

    “NY-NJ Port Activity Down for First Time Since 1993”
    http://www.1010wins.com/NY-NJ-Port-Activity-Down-for-First-Time-Since-1993/4056859

    -For the first time in 15 years, container traffic handled by the Port of New York and New Jersey in 2008 was down for the full year.

  159. Pat says:

    beatings and pictures of ugly dogs?

  160. still_looking says:

    Pat 160

    Still clearing throat and coughing with exercise, but no pain. Do I take her back? Wait? H-pylori test? What is up with this?

    Sounds like the increased acid is improved (no pain) Did they do the H pylori? [Its a test for a bacterium that causes stomach ulcers– there’s an interesting story about the Australian guy who proved it]

    Exercise induced cough may be 1) undiagnosed asthma 2) still irritated and not yet healed lungs from the reflux or 3) some other cause.

    Throat clearing also can be 1) back drip from sinuses – check for seasonal allergies 2) just –oddly enough — a habit that takes time to resolve. It can come from prolonged reflux and remain a while even after the reflux has been treated — did they do an EGD (upper endoscopy) to see if there is an anatomic problem?

    Remember: this info is from the high school cafeteria bologna sandwich maker…I just cause ulcers… that’s all.

    sl

  161. comrade nom deplume says:

    [146] zieba,

    It would suck to be sure. But that is why you prepare. That is why we buy insurance.

  162. Stu says:

    “If you are middle class or poor in this country you need to wake up and see who’s pulling the strings behind the dog and pony shows in DC. I am not saying these AIG bonuses aren’t outrageous but it’s nothing being compared to what’s going on in broad daylight behind the acronym’s TARP, TALF, etc”

    Well said!

  163. still_looking says:

    Pat 160

    Also. Does she have bad breath or facial pain. If she has sinusitis (from the URI) – if it’s a bacterial sinusitis, she might need antibiotics.

    I know for my kid, his breath smelled like a dead cat — and he had the cough, back drip stink, and was refusing food.

    Just a thought. Now…where did I leave that mayonnaise I left out overnight?

    sl

  164. Pat says:

    Yes, Boo Boo, I myself must also state that I am no stranger to the balogna sandwich.

    I only knew about the H-pylori because I was treated for it, after years of useless gaviston and such.

    She hasn’t been tested yet. Her doc did say that if she didn’t improve (what does THAT mean, specifically?), then she’d have me collect poo.

    I told her new Dr. that I’d had her blood drawn/tested on my own when she was three to see if she was infected with it. Test was negative. New Dr. says on young children blood test is not correct test.

  165. still_looking says:

    Stu, 167

    Just a big diversionary tactic.

    Ever see “No Country of Old Men?”

    Guy sets a car on fire so he can walk into and out of the pharmacy with a pile of stuff unnoticed.

    Wanna steal big?? Create a big, fearsome diversion, steal, then make your getaway.

    All the best thieves know that one.

    sl

  166. still_looking says:

    “No Country FOR Old Men” actually.

    sl

  167. Stu says:

    Saw the movie and agree about diversions. Slight of hand on a grand scale.

  168. HEHEHE says:

    “No Country FOR Old Men” with what’s happening with Pension Funds, 401-k’s, and the joke that is Social Security it a few years it certainly won’t

  169. comrade nom deplume says:

    [103] grim,

    “Even if you thought the GD2 was coming, it would probably be more effective to network and ensure that you are in a position to keep your job than it would to stockpile guns or ammo.”

    Well said, protect the most important asset first. But don’t neglect the other assets, or your contigency plans.

    So I suggest these edits:

    “Even if you thought the GD2 was coming, it would probably be more effective to first network and ensure that you are in a position to keep your job before you stockpile guns or ammo.”

  170. comrade nom deplume says:

    “contingency” even

  171. Pat says:

    Thanks, sl. The residual thing makes more sense than the habit, because she’s only doing it in the evening between 5 and bedtime (maybe when she’s tired???)

    And yes, Bingo, she was treated for spring/seasonal asthma for two weeks the year she was four. So maybe that was triggered. Didn’t even think of that.

  172. Sean says:

    Dodd throwing Timmay back under the bus. I think we are going to need a fleet of buses by month end.

  173. 3b says:

    #161 SG: Housing cannot start to recover, until it finishes it’s decline to where it should be.

    And in our area the decline in prices is not complete yet, as indicated by the still large amount of delusional sellers out there who are still pricing their POS capes at 500K.

    Even when we hit bottom here, prices at best will be flat for a long time.

  174. Shore Guy says:

    On a weekend of “March Madness” this is the perfect time for another “Saturday Night Massacre,” ala Watergate. If it happens late enough on Saturday, but not too late, it allows for coverage on Sunday, but not too much, thus making it “old news” by Monday. Either way, “important things” like who beat whom, will drown out most of the noise about the economic team change.

  175. yikes says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 8:39 am

    Looks like uber-conservative poser jamil has turned rabble-rouser.

    It’s always the “conservatives” that bug out first. Real conservatives go subterranean at times like now.

    lol
    lol
    you need a radio show.

  176. make money says:

    Is anyone with me that this has got to be one of the signs of the apocalypse?:

    Clot,

    It’s funny how our opinions seem to be in the same page these days. I’m with you on this too.

    Borrow as much as you can in the country and currency that sure to be fcuk”d and they go expand and get long in the country and currency that is sure to increase purcasing power.

    US and GB will be the old rome. Only historians will speak english. Downtown manhattan will be a huge museum which attracks millions of visitors(cheap dollar) and me and Clot will sell hot dogs on the corner of Brodaway and Wall.

    We’ll sell T shirts that say “I went to Wall Street and I didn’t loose my shirt”

  177. 3b says:

    #132 schivio: What is left to discuss at this point. There are those of us still waiting to buy, but we are still waiting on delusional sellers to understand that the party is over.

    Potential buyers cannot force sellers to lower their prices. Many asking prices are still so high, it is not even worth throwing a bid in.

    And realtors in many cases do not appear to understand the new reality, as witnessed by their still taking these over priced listings.

    There may be others on this site who are not sure about buying any more, based on how this whole sitiuation has unfolded, and will continue to unfold.

    Also their are potential buyers (like myself), who know prices are and will continue to fall (even though the waiting at times feels like Chinese water torture).,but are far more concerned with out of control property taxes,and the overall dismal state of NJ’s economy and political establishment.

    And finally there are those who will probably never buy, as some of them suffer from parilysis by over analysis.

  178. Shore Guy says:

    Hey folks, I am not earning enough money to cover my expenses and my hours are being cut, so I expect a decline in my income this year. It is a good idea to open up some more credit cards and max them out right away, right? (Clearly scarcastic, for those to whom it was not clear).

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKnPLfj3FJ_Y&refer=home

  179. Shore Guy says:

    Hey Stu,

    You are in wel-known company.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/technologyNews/idUSTRE52J2GD20090320

    snip
    In the first two months of the year, Xerox said, revenue dropped 18 percent from a year ago. The company plans to take more drastic cost-cutting measures — including freezing salaries and suspending its contributions to 401(k) plans for U.S. employees — to offset the revenue declines.

    snip

  180. Stu says:

    Shore Guy,

    Xeroxes numbers are horrible. They went from like 1.2 billion in income down to 200 million year over year.

    And it’s not like they are a consumer discretionary.

    No recession here.

  181. Shore Guy says:

    For anyone not paying attention, it is nearly unanimous across the income and political spectra of the regular posters here: the economy is bad, the USG’s actions are not helping and will likely hurt, and we expect to get scre-wed royally before it is done.

  182. sas says:

    i need to eat more than a snicker bar & coffee for lunch.

    man, I feel like crap.

    SAS

  183. Shore Guy says:

    Xerox amy do better going back to monks.

  184. Shore Guy says:

    SAS,

    If you follow-up that meal with a couple shots, you will have covered all the necessary food groups.

  185. d2b says:

    We also discuss Disney Hotels.

    We stay at the Marriott Village which is right across the street from Disney. I know that there are benefits to staying in Disney, but I can use points and stay for free. The location is nice, three Marriott hotels in a triangle.

    Last time we stayed in Disney I found the amenities to be so-so. We stayed in Port Orleans and it felt like a Days Inn.

  186. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 10:45 am
    Mikey’s unique take:

    THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2009
    Rain or Pee?
    Client Email – 2:30PM

    clot: I hope Mike convinces as many people as possible. The only way toward capitulation is to destroy every last person’s confidence….

  187. schlivo says:

    3B,
    You’ve summed it up quite nicely. I just miss the days when the focus was more on how the incoming RE data was confirming all the things that you, grim, and others here predicted would come to pass. That was exciting.
    Okay, I’ve learned my lesson. Resume discussion on whatever.

  188. chicagofinance says:

    Stu says:
    March 20, 2009 at 9:17 am
    ChiFi: There are some serious issues with the letter, but first and foremost, I agree with the writer’s broad stroke argument.

    What needs to happen is for IBs to go bye bye. Some of the ill-gotten gains needs to be recovered. Some of the perps need to go to jail and finally, compensation needs to be inline with performance and not grossly exaggerated. We need to get away from financial alchemy and get back to the old mom and pop model of banks charging higher interest rates on loans than they pay out on savings. How really does leverage help anyone except for the Wall Street Fraternity that runs away with the profit on the up market and requires tax payer bailouts in the down market. These are the issues that need to be addressed.

    Stu: The IB is not leveraged crap. Before this entire mess, it was all about financial advisory and capital markets. Strategy and implementation. The model worked. Look at real estate and if you recognize the difference between the last 10 years and everything from prior history, then you appreciate that the IB model is fine. In the future the housing of this business may be in different locations in business form and geography, but the essential need to bring buyers and sellers together is never going to go away, and it is extremely important that it be maintained. Hopefully for NJ Real Estate, it will continue to be located from Boston to DC.

  189. Stu says:

    schlivo,

    I agree that sometimes things here appear to get way off topic, but you just skip through it, like most do at their own peril, such as when ignoring Bi’s inverse pearls of wisdom.

  190. 3b says:

    #194 schlivo: Hey don’t worry we will still discuss real estate too. And April is coming, school budget time in NJ. Always a good topic when discussing real estate.

    It will be very interesting this year to say the least.

  191. Stu says:

    ChiFi: Perhaps I should have been more clear. It’s the financial alchemy that must go away.

    Last time I looked, the rating agencies were still getting paid by the IBs to rate their products, the property appraisers were getting paid by the loan originators and the lawyers still pushed their clients to see their preferred doctors.

    Are there any guest memberships into this fraternity?

    Seriously, without ‘real’ regulation, the IBs will always be a place where greed will trump sense. I agree that I liked the old model a lot better then the current iteration.

    So how long before GS and ML say they are no longer commercial banks.

    Blah blah blah.

  192. make money says:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eK_HDYKWJjs

    This was yesterday. Peter calls Leisman ” Steve you’re still soo clueless”

    Fast forward two 6:30 minutes.

  193. Victorian says:

    Excellent editorial by Simon Johnson in the NYT debunking the claim that we need to pay bonuses because we need these people to clear the mess since it is so “complex”.

    “In South Korea, cozy relationships between banks and the large conglomerates called chaebols were a major reason for the crisis. But after the crisis hit, Korean bankers and companies insisted that the complexity of chaebols like Samsung and LG — with their many separate but interwoven businesses — meant that outsiders would not be able to distinguish good loans from bad.

    In Thailand, some argued that the preponderance of family-owned businesses — and the lack of clarity about precisely which family members were really in charge — meant that only bankers already working in big institutions like Bangkok Bank and Siam Commercial Bank could determine which borrowers were creditworthy.

    The leaders of Thailand and South Korea did not listen to such arguments, and thank goodness. Some of the leading Thai banks were taken over by the government. After the crisis, a civil servant in charge of one such bank noted that its bad loans were much bigger than had been indicated before the takeover, largely because of an internal coverup. Only when outsiders took over did the public discover the full scope of the losses.

    The South Korean government also demanded that the banks and the chaebols make a clean break. This generated a great deal of political noise — particularly when foreign managers were brought in, as when the Carlyle Group bought a stake in KorAm Bank in 2000 and Lone Star Funds purchased the Korea Exchange Bank in 2003.

    But these reforms made all the difference. Banks became healthy and resumed lending within a few years after the crisis broke. The chaebols that survived are stronger than they were before the crisis. They are now withstanding the severe pressure of the global recession because they were forced to become better regulated, and more separate from banks.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/20/opinion/20johnson.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

  194. Sean says:

    Rolling Stone chimes in

    ttp://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/print

  195. Qwerty says:

    RE: Businessweek stating “The bad news is that home prices are likely to keep falling”

    1) How is improving home affordabilty “bad news”?

    2) How do “journalists” not see the bias in such statements?

  196. Shore Guy says:

    “bad news”????????

    Restoring pricing to a level supported by demand is what we should want.

  197. 3b says:

    #203 Because alot of them may own homes that are now worth less than what they paid for them??

  198. Stu says:

    Someone needs to develop an online calculator to help determine when jingle mail becomes a better option then stretching to make mortgage payments. It could be very helpful to many people in areas where RE prices have not yet imploded.

    Perhaps I should sell this idea to the good folks at Quicken?

  199. Clotpoll says:

    make (152)-

    Now that the Knicks are decent, they’re just boring.

    Bring back Isiah.

  200. Sean says:

    Short heard around the world.

    http://vimeo.com/3722293

  201. Alap says:

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/03/post_66.html

    Xanadu delayed as expected. Lost construction loan. Now its just gonna be an ugly empty space instead of an ugly empty mall

  202. Clotpoll says:

    For anyone who was holding his breath:

    Mortgage rates went up today.

  203. Clotpoll says:

    chi (193)-

    The market doesn’t need Mike Morgan to destroy public confidence. They’re doing a godd job of it on their own.

    I think you’re a perfect example of how guys like Morgan don’t move the needle of public sentiment one iota. Either you’re agree with him, then seek out his voice…or you’re against him.

    His herd can best be termed as self-selecting.

  204. 3b says:

    #210 clot: But, but, but, that was not supposed to happen??

  205. Clotpoll says:

    schlivo (194)-

    I miss when I was 4 years old, and Mommy would get me ice cream every Friday.

  206. Stu says:

    I was thinking of few names for Obama’s schedule of stimulus since it so far lacks a clever name.

    How about, “The Raw Deal?”

  207. chicagofinance says:

    Sean says:
    March 20, 2009 at 1:34 pm
    Short heard around the world.
    http://vimeo.com/3722293

    Sean: this piece is embarassing….show some critical restraint. It is an infomerical.

  208. Clotpoll says:

    3b (212)-

    Wanna hear the real gut-buster about all this Fed/agency paper crap?

    All our fence sitters who told us they’d pull the trigger anywhere under 5%?

    Well, we can lock almost all of them @ 4.85%.

    However, now the dopes are holding out for 4%. Tilt. Game over.

    Fear the law of unintended consequences, for they are about to wreak havoc on this Earth.

  209. Victorian says:

    Woo Hoo!! GO SRS GO!!

  210. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 1:44 pm
    chi (193)- The market doesn’t need Mike Morgan to destroy public confidence.
    His herd can best be termed as self-selecting.

    clot: or else they are new age Moonies….

  211. chicagofinance says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 1:27 pm
    make (152)- Now that the Knicks are decent, they’re just boring. Bring back Isiah.

    clot: I have to upload the pictures I took with my piece of crap cell phone.

    I got a nod out of DLee when I called him double-double. I also have a shot of Dolan.

  212. Clotpoll says:

    Chi (195)-

    There is a fundamental difference between legitimate IBs and ongoing criminal enterprises that pose as IBs.

    Everybody should take a look at the chart for one such legit IB, Greenhill (tick: GHL).

  213. chicagofinance says:

    You also have to see the spread under the 100 seats on the celebrity row side of the court.

  214. Clotpoll says:

    Stu (214)-

    I was thinking “No Vas”.

  215. Clotpoll says:

    chi (219)-

    Clothed, or naked?

    “I also have a shot of Dolan.”

  216. chicagofinance says:

    You know GM was responsible for trying to sell a car in Mexico named “it doesn’t go”.

  217. Clotpoll says:

    vic (217)-

    Today, when I make the crayon mark on the wall next to my bed (tallying another day survived), I will use my special, happy red crayon.

  218. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    That or the Wrecked Society

  219. Lincoln78 says:

    ” The largest single bonus check, for $6.4 million, went to Douglas L. Poling, an executive vice president for energy and infrastructure investments. Mark Herr, an A.I.G. spokesman, said Mr. Poling had told him he was returning the bonus “because he thought it was the correct thing to do.” ”

    … of course, he only decided it was the correct thing to do AFTER he received it and AFTER everyone got all pissed.

  220. 3b says:

    #216 CLOT:However, now the dopes are holding out for 4%. Tilt. Game over.

    And than 3%? Why not just charge 0% and be done with it?

  221. make money says:

    3b,(228)

    Double digit rates await in 18 months or less.

  222. Stu says:

    ChiFi: Nova in spanish translates to: it won’t go.

  223. 3b says:

    #229 makemoney: And will there still be sellers out there looking to get 500K for their POS cape with 10% mtg rates??

  224. zieba says:

    These guys are right to post guards. It’s scary what you can find on the net, even without a paid subscription:

    (203) 254-83xx

  225. sas says:

    “Double digit rates await in 18 months or less”

    you really think that will happen?

    that would kill the consumer for sure.

    should be fun.

    SAS

  226. Qwerty says:

    RE: “Someone needs to develop an online calculator to help determine when jingle mail becomes a better option then stretching to make mortgage payments.”

    One already exists:

    http://www.payorgo.com

  227. sas says:

    i always did like that movie Back to the Future.

    :)
    SAS

  228. #202 – Sean – Thanks for that link. I don’t always agree with Taibi but he’s always an interesting read. This is no exception. A great article, despite his/its flaws.

  229. Stu says:

    Also the Nissan Sentra is sold in Mexico as the Tsuru. Not sure why but the Sentar translates to ‘to sit’. Perhaps the fear over the whole nova flap?

    Just snoped it and both are rumors including the infamous Coke in China translating to “bite the wax tadpole”.

    I love the internet!

    I wonder how long before snopes starts investigating Paulson, Bernanke, Geithner and company?

  230. There’s a rumor going `round (check Dealbreaker) that JPM has canceled 401(k) matching firm-wide.
    That really can’t be good.
    Anyone here on the inside and care to comment?

  231. Clotpoll says:

    3b (228)-

    You might not be surprised to hear this, but I am supremely certain that not even 0% rates would bring buyers into RE.

    And even at 0% rates, once all those who have equity would be done refinancing, it’d be game over.

    “Why not just charge 0% and be done with it?”

  232. Clotpoll says:

    zieba (230)-

    I guess Mr. Poling should be expecting a visit from the Piano Wire Society.

  233. Stu says:

    “Anyone here on the inside and care to comment?”

    I’m not inside at JPM, but I could have sworn they just revealed that they were not in trouble financially and were talking about returning the tarp money.

  234. #242 – Well, right now it’s being sold as a way of avoiding the %90 tax hammer, since it might be considered a bonus. I’ll admit that I thought the same as you though.

  235. skep-tic says:

    Mr. O is way too nonchalant. Even though I disagree with him on many issues, I voted for him because I thought he was a responsible and serious guy who would provide a steady hand (compared to Mac who seemed all over the place).

    But right now I am losing respect for him as a person. He is not being serious– he is treating the presidency like it is some sort of celebrity experience. Going on the Tonight Show was totally inappropriate. It demeans him and the country.

    Doing his NCAA brackets on TV is similarly worthless PR that makes him look like a lightweight. He is losing credibility by the day in my opinion and I do not think he gets it. He seems blinded by his own celebrity.

  236. Stu says:

    Skep-

    His honeymoon period ended for me the day the porkulus was released.

  237. Pat says:

    Whenever you watch the action on the defined contribution side, you have to look at what’s going on the pension side.
    http://benefitslink.com/links/20090312-069418.html

  238. schlivo says:

    toshiro_mifune says:
    March 20, 2009 at 2:22 pm
    “There’s a rumor going `round (check Dealbreaker) that JPM has canceled 401(k) matching firm-wide.”

    Xerox did the same today.

  239. Stu says:

    But Xerox didn’t claim to be doing well ;)

  240. sas says:

    Is today Obama failure… err…

    I mean Bank Failure Friday?

    SAS

  241. Mike NJ says:

    #243 I thought benefits and commission do not qualify under the plan? I work in a decent sized financial (non-tarp) and we had this benefit cut on us late last year. Everyone is doing it these days. heck my company is even profitable and they took it away, why? because they could without any ramifications. These are the times we live in.

  242. #250 – I’m not too sure, that’s why I was hoping for someone with more knowledge than myself.

    #246 – Thanks Pat!

  243. Clotpoll says:

    Somebody dust off that muzzle.

    It’s going back on bi next week.

  244. W8TING says:

    Citi still matches 401k contributions (up to 6%) of your salary. I wonder how long before they decide to cancel all company matching policies.

  245. Stu says:

    So the muzzle is only when SRS is above 90. I thought it was once 90 was hit it would stay on permanently. Not that I think Bi is man enough to keep his word.

  246. 3b says:

    #240 clot: you are probably right.

  247. zieba says:

    I remember buying SSO/FAS calls the day bi came on and the whole muzzle thing first started… SRS was at $89.99 and Stu was a step away from jizzing his knickers.

    I sold them not too long ago for a decent profit. If anything, bi is a good oversold/overbought indicator.

  248. yikes says:

    cross guatemala off the list of places to go

    http://www.clickondetroit.com/news/18974252/detail.html

  249. Stu says:

    Clot 3B, that is what I have been saying for the past 3 years. It’s about affordability and qualifying for the loan. Anyone here want to buy a rapidly depreciating asset at 0%? I’ll sell you my house at true appraised value.

  250. zieba says:

    Lots changed since warm-onion-John left…
    He’s going to bug out when he does return.

  251. skep-tic says:

    #195

    “The IB is not leveraged crap. Before this entire mess, it was all about financial advisory and capital markets. Strategy and implementation. The model worked.”

    Bingo. If we destroy the IB as a concept, we got back to pre railroad days economically. The fact is that a modern economy needs intermediaries of this kind who can aggregate capital and spread risk.

  252. Stu says:

    Zieba, you might be right about splooging my trow, but SRS was at $50 when Bi made his to $25 call. Today it is $69 and had recently peaked near 110.

    I have a sell in for that 1/6th I bought on Wednesday at 57 at 70. Next piece set to sell at 115.

    Let’s see whose strategy works better.

    Let’s see. In 2009 I have real gains of approximately 35% (I need to do some math to be sure). I have paper losses around 30% on a much larger chunk. Are you better than zero? Be honest ;)

  253. comrade nom deplume says:

    [260] skep,

    No one said that they had to be US-based. If we effectively outlaw our IB sector, there’s plenty of other cities ready to become the next New York.

    Remember when London was on the verge of supplanting NYC as the financial epicenter?

  254. Clotpoll says:

    Anyone who plays with FAZ and SRS calls is in a league by himself.

    And it ain’t the league of extraordinary gentlemen.

    If SRS and FAZ are gambling, playing their options is Russian roulette, a la The Deer Hunter.

  255. Shore Guy says:

    “He is losing credibility by the day in my opinion and I do not think he gets it.”

    There were some of us who thought we saw this coming, and, after he was elected, then hoped we had been wrong. When he did a Loopner (Poor Mr. Loopner. Born without a spine) and failed to veto the 2009 Omnibus bill, those of us who hoped we were wrong were reassured that we were not. I still want this guy to go down in history as one of the best presidents ever, but for now B.O. just stinks.

  256. Clotpoll says:

    Same for SSO and FAS. Misread that zieba post.

    Different ETFs, same insanity.

  257. Shore Guy says:

    Only this Administration could make Spitzer seem like someone to listen to:

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/03/20/aig.spitzer.scandal/

  258. zieba says:

    I am.
    My post wasn’t directed at you and I meant no offense. I honestly thought that’s what the setup was when the bet was made. Fifty makes more sense, at any rate…

  259. zieba says:

    … lets talk real estate.

  260. Shore Guy says:

    “Citi still matches 401k contributions (up to 6%) of your salary. I wonder how long before they decide to cancel all company matching policies”

    If they don’t, how will they afford to keep the executive compensation competitive. After all, they need to keep tht talent.

  261. Stu says:

    Zeiba:

    I’m trying to do the math on my gains and losses but I have 5 accounts (2 roths, 2 iras and one taxable), only transactions this year have been to buy FXP and SRS and sell some SRS, but determining the basis is impossible until my entire position is unwound.

    For what it’s worth, the net value of the entire account is appreciably higher today then it was on January 1. And my cash position vs. short equities is considerably higher as well.

  262. #268 – … lets talk real estate.

    How many “Blue Ribbon” towns won’t be so in 5 years?
    Candidates?

  263. Nicholas says:

    Let us go forth, from this time and place and proclaim the end of congressional pensions for anyone elected or reelected to congress after (insert date here). With the “quality” of legislation and oversight coming out of DC in recent years, I will take my chances with “inexperienced” new people.

    My two senators just introduced legislation to honor the start spangled banner with a commemorative coin…

    I wrote them both and let them know they lost my vote, permanently.

  264. Stu says:

    Z,…didn’t see your response till after my recent post.

    I’m cool.

  265. Shore Guy says:

    If McCain were president right now, there would be one pi$$ed-off guy in the WH right now calling people on the carpet and scaring the living he-ll out of them. Who in their right mind would be scared of B.O. right now, except for the folks who directly serve at the pleasure of the president?

    This lack of fear is going to cost the economy and is going to have severe affects on RE.

  266. Shore Guy says:

    Nicolas,

    I am glad to see them taking on the thogh fights. Are they in favor of continuing to allow crabcakes to be sold in Maryland?

  267. skep-tic says:

    real estate:

    entire argument for high prices in tri state area, esp at entry level were massive waves of young high paid wall streeters.

    many have lost their jobs and ones who remain are going to get paid a lot less.

    tri state real estate appears more and more overpriced with each passing week.

  268. veto says:

    Clot says “I am supremely certain that not even 0% rates would bring buyers into RE.”

    0% rates would not sway us into our first home. in fact we may purposely not buy until mtge rates go above 10%.

  269. A.West says:

    Yikes said:
    “question: just read the thread from the other day about how the US printed all this money essentially to buy treasury bonds.

    universally, everyone proclaimed deflation followed by inflation, but ONLY one person (that i saw, A. West) said there would be no inflation.”

    Wait Yikes, I did say it was inflationary. But I’m not sure when it will show up in CPI stats though, and its effect will depend upon how aggressively it’s pursued. I happen to think Bernanke wants to pursue it. But it’s still hard to believe that even direct injections of money can make home prices rise, because first nominal wages would have to rise, at this point.

  270. Shore Guy says:

    Must go walk near the water or go crazy. Carry on folks.

  271. 3b says:

    #271 toshiro: No to beat a dead horse, but there are no more blue ribbon towns.

    The program.designation was ended about 9 or 10 years ago.

    Many realtors and homeowners still spin it though as meaning something.

    Actually even when it was in existence, it did not IMO mean much any how.

  272. Stu says:

    Shore Guy:

    I’m not so sure about your McCain vision. He could be dead from the stress and Palin would be running the show? McCain showed his true colors in backing Bush after ripping everything Bush stood for back in the 2000 primary. I do not think he would have behaved any differently except we might have been closer to another foolish war.

  273. chicagofinance says:

    Look at this….the c-cksucker CFO of GS may be lying, but what he says makes logical sense. What I posited yesterday is consistent. Please take my word that I am not some stunad….

    Goldman says did nothing wrong taking AIG payments
    Friday March 20, 2:03 pm ET

    By Joseph A. Giannone
    NEW YORK (Reuters) – Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS – News) did nothing wrong when it accepted payments to close out trades with American International Group (NYSE:AIG – News), the giant insurer rescued by the U.S. government, Goldman’s chief financial officer said on Friday.

    CFO David Viniar, in a conference call, answered questions about Goldman’s trading relationship with AIG, which was given $180 billion of taxpayer funds in the last four months of 2008 to save it from collapse.

    The bailout sparked public outrage amid revelations that $90 billion of those funds were funneled quickly to banks that traded with AIG. Goldman received $12.9 billion in payments and collateral, while most AIG investors were wiped out and the mounting cost of the bailout sparked outrage.

    Viniar told reporters the trades with AIG were “commercial contracts” and the insurer was obligated to make good.

    “We don’t think we did anything wrong,” he said. “We had commercial terms. It is our responsibility to our shareholders to make sure that we are protecting ourselves.”

    Viniar disclosed that Goldman held $7.5 billion of collateral against $10 billion of AIG exposure when the insurance company was bailed out. The remaining $2.5 billion was hedged in the marketplace.

    Goldman’s AIG exposure originally had a face value of $20 billion before market deterioration set in.

    Currently, Goldman has $6 billion of AIG exposure, offset in part by $4.4 billion in collateral.

    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
    Viniar said the bank had no material direct exposure to AIG and has no net exposure now. Goldman amassed most of its AIG trading exposure in 2006, he said, but scaled back its dealings starting in 2007 as it grew increasingly worried about subprime markets.

    Starting in July 2007, Goldman began to mark down certain “super senior” AIG risk, and the two companies had some disputes over collateral, he said.
    XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

    AIG had broached the idea of settling some trades at a discount, both before and after it received its first bailout on September 16, but Goldman declined to accept, Viniar said. While the rescue has become a political flashpoint, Goldman was only demanding what was due, he said.

    “That’s why we enter into these contracts. That’s why we have collateral terms in the first place, to make sure that we are protected,” he said. “And all we did was call for the collateral that was due to us under the contracts. I don’t think there’s any guilt whatsoever.”

    Viniar repeated Goldman’s stance that it would not have been hurt by AIG’s failure because its exposure was either fully collateralized or hedged.

    While Goldman had no direct exposure to AIG, an AIG collapse would have disrupted the world’s financial markets and likely caused indirect harm to Goldman, he said.

    “Just vis-a-vis our transactions with AIG, there would have been no credit losses if AIG had failed,” Viniar said. “Had AIG failed, especially given the timing, it would’ve been quite disruptive to the world’s financial markets.”

    Critics have complained that Goldman, whose alumni populate the halls of government, benefited unfairly from connections and favoritism. Henry Paulson, Treasury secretary when the AIG bailout was arranged last fall, is a former Goldman chief executive. The chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Steve Friedman, is a former Goldman chairman.

    Goldman says it was not party to any discussions about a government bailout of AIG.

  274. 3b says:

    #276 skpetic:tri state real estate appears more and more overpriced with each passing week.

    Yes. If only the clueless sellers out there understood that.

  275. skep-tic says:

    any nice area that borders a crappy area will get hit hard as crime spreads and gentrification recedes.

    any area that is on the edge of commuteable to manhattan will get crushed as closer in areas become more affordable.

    towns which have unjustifiably high taxes relative to similar towns will get hit hard because no appreciation in value makes the tax liability all the more apparent. e.g., we are looking at two towns where the difference would be $120k over 20 yrs.

  276. Stu says:

    ChiFi: Stunad?

    Haven’t heard that in a while. My friend in the recycled paper industry likes to call me that from time to time.

  277. 3b says:

    #284 skeptic: towns which have unjustifiably high taxes relative to similar towns will get hit hard because no appreciation in value makes the tax liability all the more apparent.

    This applies to my town. We went from one of the lowest property taxes in Bergen County to the 3rd highest, all in a few short years.

  278. #280 – 3b – The program.designation was ended about 9 or 10 years ago.

    Sorry 3b, I should have been a bit more explicit in what I meant. I was largely referring to a town’s “perception of desirability” given location, schools, taxes etc. I used the Blue Ribbon tag as a short hand and I forgot it used to be an actual designation.

  279. Stu says:

    Just set up an appointment with an appraiser to give us more ammo for our property tax appeal. What a sucky position we find ourselves in. On one hand, we want the appraisal to come in as low as possible to help our appeal. On the other hand, the lower the number comes in, the more of a loss we will have taken since buying the place in 2004.

    I never thought that waiting upon the results of an appraisal would be similarly nerve wracking as waiting on the results of an AIDS test.

  280. I thought this was interesting. From Bloomberg via Lolfed; AIG vs Countrywide.
    AIG’s mortgage insurance arm is suing Countrywide for misrepresenting the underwriting done for the loans it insured.

  281. A.West says:

    I just saw that my Credit Union is offering 30yr mortgages at 4.75%, no points. A jumbo 30 just 0.25% more at 5%.
    Just for fun, I plugged in my stats into a “what can I afford?” calculator at bankrate, with these inputs. Dual income $1.4mn. But that’s pretty risky because my wife could lose her job. My income alone, ~$900k. Definitely a big difference between 5% and 6.5% a few months ago on these “affordability” calculators. In NJ, these new lower rates are sweet manna from heaven for realtors.
    Goodness I’m tempted to start looking for a 5/3.5br or a 4/3 with half an acre or more in Warren or the Basking Ridge area. (Now am in a moderate 4/3 bilevel in Scotch Plains). The biggest attraction is the opportunity to go short the dollar by taking out the mortgage. Very hard to imagine the property price going anywhere but down over the next 10 yrs.

    I work in global investments, but think my position and firm are about as safe as investment firms can be, which in turn will keep me tied near Bridgewater, NJ for many years to come.

    Question for Grim:
    If I’m here for 12 years, want my daughter to stay in a good school, want to keep my wife happy by letting her move us up to a home nice for entertaining, inviting friends to stay overnight with us, etc., what is the breakeven between waiting and buying?
    I suspect that monthly payments will remain the same for some time – today we have artifically low mortgage rates and still- high home prices. In a couple of years we’ll probably see higher, more normal mortgage rates, and lower home prices. Total monthly payments may be similar, possibly higher. In 12 years, it will in retrospect probably be better if one waited for the lower price, higher rate scenario. I guess I could make a spreadsheet model to investigate that, but it’s probably not worth the trouble.
    Also Grim: can you recommend a buyers agent (or yourself) very familiar with the Warren & Basking Ridge area. This summer I want to at least take a look at the inventory to get a feel for the area. I still think I’ll wait for 2010-2011 before making a transition.

  282. Stu says:

    Hey A,

    Can I get a loan?

  283. zieba says:

    Batman royalties?

  284. Stu says:

    70 on the SRS tape.

  285. Stu says:

    Nice one Z!

  286. chicagofinance says:

    WSJ

    March 20, 2009, 12:59 PM ET Mean Street: What’s More Shameful Than AIG? The U.S. Congress

    By Deal Journal

    The most depressing part was that it wasn’t even close.

    By a vote of 328-93, the House of Representatives voted for a special tax on evil Wall Street bankers for their crimes against humanity.

    That is a 3:1 margin. Apparently at the Capitol, it is better to be a coward who keeps his job, than a man who keeps his dignity.

    Too harsh a judgment on our duly elected representatives of the people?

    Not at all. In fact, too charitable. Congress may be acting at the behest of the mob. But nothing should excuse that institution’s shameless and shameful behavior over the AIG bonuses.

    Nothing.

    You can try and put aside all of Congress’s nasty, vile words as predictable Washington grandstanding. But the words have been too jolting and over-the-top to be easily dismissed. Senator Chuck Grassley’s suggestion that AIG execs kill themselves may just be an Iowan’s failed attempt at irony.

    But Thursday there seemed to be little irony when Congressman and bill sponsor Charlie Rangel of New York accused Wall Street of single-handedly destroying America. “These people are getting away with murder. They’re getting paid for the destruction they caused to our communities,” he said.

    It is an odd accusation. Rangel’s district–like all of New York City–has been living off of Wall Street’s bonuses and tax revenues for years.

    I should know. Rangel, a long-time beneficiary of rent-subsidized housing, is my Congressman.

    But who ever said that politicians were good with the details? Just look at the messy House draft of the bill. It’s shoddy populism masquerading as tax law. The bill is retroactive and arbitrary. Its objective is vengeance and punishment, not raising funds.

    Apparently, if you are a dual-income Manhattan couple earning more than $250,000 a year, one of whom happens to work at a TARP bank, you are America’s new criminals.

    Say goodbye bonus and goodbye bank. You can’t afford New York without your bonus. So you will have to leave the TARP bank–just as thousands and thousands of your colleagues undoubtedly will.

    I already hear the cries from all the aggrieved taxpayers. Who cares? Where else will they go on Wall Street? They are all overpaid greedy good-for-nothings, after all. But guess what? If this bill passes or some form of it–the biggest loser will be you, the U.S. taxpayer.

    The good banks like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo will figure a way around this bonus madness and pay off the TARP loans. And the taxpayer will be left holding the bag of American International Group, Citigroup and Bank of America, where the taxpayer has invested at least $260 billion.

    The labor market, even for ne’er-do-well bankers and traders, is still a free market. So senior Wall Street talent will desert these banks. And these banks may be full of people you can’t stand. They may be dysfunctional and disgraced. But don’t forget. They are your banks now.

    I, like most Americans, am angry that some undeserving execs will walk away with millions of dollars in undeserved bonuses. But I don’t let anger blind me or a re-election campaign guide me–unlike, apparently, three-quarters of our House of Representatives.

    Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, who voted against the bill, said, “This bill is nothing more than an attempt for everybody to cover their butt up here on Capitol Hill.”

    But he’s too generous. This bill is much, much worse than that. It is mob rule. It is an abdication of the duty of Congress to legislate thoughtfully and with due process. And it is an act of cowardice in which what is right or wrong means nothing and what is expedient means everything.

  287. skep-tic says:

    bloodlust.

    in two months time we will see barney frank replace his gavel with a femur at some televised hearing.

  288. A.West says:

    Stu, sorry, no loan for you. I never have the heart to ask for any money back.

  289. make money says:

    In its statement, the Fed announced its intention to purchase an additional $1 trillion worth of U.S. treasury and agency debt. The purchases, of course, will be made with money created out of thin air through the Fed’s printing presses. Few can doubt that they will persist with these operations until the economy returns to its former health. Whether or not this can ever be accomplished with a printing press alone has never been seriously considered. Bernanke himself admits that we are in uncharted waters, with no map or compass, just simply a hope that more dollars are the answer.

    Rather than solving our problems, more inflation will only add to the crisis. Falling asset prices, the credit crunch, declining consumer spending, bankruptcies, foreclosures, and layoffs are all part of the necessary rebalancing of our economy. These wrenching movements, however painful, are the market’s attempts to resolve the serious problems at the root of our bubble economy. Attempts to literally paper-over these problems will lead to disaster.

    Now that the Fed has recklessly shown its hand, the mad dash to get out of Treasuries and dollars should not be far off. The more the Fed prints to buy bonds the less the dollar is worth. Holders of our debt (read China and Japan) understand this dynamic. We must expect that they will not only refuse to buy new bonds, but they will look to unload those bonds they already own.

    Under normal circumstances, if creditors grew concerned that inflation was eating into their returns, the Fed would raise interest rates to entice them to buy. However, the Fed will avoid this course of action as it fears higher rates are too heavy a burden for our debt laden economy to bear. To maintain artificially low rates, the Fed will be forced to purchase trillions more debt then it expects as it becomes the only buyer in a seller’s market.

    Just last week, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao voiced concern about his country’s massive investments in U.S. government debt. In the most unequivocal statement yet by the Chinese leadership on this issue, Wen made it plain that he was concerned with depreciation, not default. With his fears now officially confirmed by the Fed statement, we must wonder when the Chinese will finally change course.

    There is a growing consensus that if China no longer wants to buy our bonds, we can simply print the money and buy them ourselves. This naïve view fails to consider the consequences implicit in such a change. When the Treasury sells bonds to China, no new dollars are printed. Instead, China prints yuan which it then uses to buy treasurers. This effectively allows America to export its inflation to China. However, now that we will be printing the money ourselves, the full inflationary impact will fall directly on us.

    With such a policy in place, America has now become a banana republic. It won’t be too long before our living standards reflect our new status. Got Gold?

  290. Shore Guy says:

    “If only the clueless sellers out there understood that”

    It is NOT the sellers who have to realize anything. It is the buyers. If I were selling a home and could find a buyer at an inflated price, why on earth would I “come to .y senses” and lower my price?

    Look, if buyers go on strike — don’t go out looking for say a week and refuse to go see or make offers on any house that is overpriced, those sellers who actually want to sell will lower their prices to meet market demand. Some people have ni intention of selling but will if someone shoves enough money into their pockets.

    I for one have no interest in selling my wedding ring. That said, if someone offered me $5,000,000 for it, I am certain Mrs. Shore would not disown me if I sold it.

    If prices are too high, don’t buy. (Just like, “If the glove does not fit…)

  291. 2010 Buyer says:

    [287 – toshiro_mifune ]

    It looks like the Blue Ribbon Schools Designation is still intact. I’ve always thought is was BS and not reflective of the actual schools.

    http://www.state.nj.us/cgi-bin/education/clear/blue.pl

  292. Shore Guy says:

    “It looks like the Blue Ribbon Schools Designation is still intact.”

    It shows which districts have a problem with kids bringing Pabst Beer to school?

  293. make money says:

    Chifi,

    Goldman had a vested interest in keeping AIG alive. Otherwise AIG would have been dead just like Lehman.

    Goldman ran the Bush administration.

    You could believe what you want to but it’s actually pretty simple.

    Do you really think that it’s a coincidence that the man who build the pyramid looting scheme was the same man in charge of our treasury the same time it blew up.

    too much coincidence in my view.

  294. 3b says:

    #300 Oh those who have the designation have it. But the program was ended years ago.

    And a school district applied for the designation, subject to certain criteria being met, they got it. It was not awarded.

    So being a so called blue ribbon district 10 years ago means nothing today. Just a misleading marketing tool.

  295. All Hype says:

    Wanna see a great game, turn on the Pitt-East Tenn game right now.

  296. 3b says:

    #299 shore: Tru. But there are far more sellers out there than buyers. ANd I would have to believe that at least some of these would be sellers really do want to sell.

    And why would a realtor who depends on closing tranactions for a living, continue to take these listings? Whay aren’t there more like clot who will decline an over priced listing.

    Just does not make sense to me.

  297. 2010 Buyer says:

    General Growth’s critical deadline is 5pm Friday, when it hopes the majority of its bondholders will have agreed to refrain from demanding payment this year on $2.25billion in bonds. If that effort fails, they will seek Ch. 11 bankruptcy protection.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123749948584589033.html

    ————-

    General Growth’s Oakwood Mall Faces Foreclosure

    Citigroup Inc and two other lenders have filed court papers to foreclose on General Growth’s Properties Oakwood Center Mall in New Orleans, which has a $95 million mortgage that came due Monday and wasn’t paid.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123757658718998053.html

  298. A.West says:

    Chifi,
    Right on. If the govnernment didn’t want counterparties to get paid and didn’t want AIG execs to get bonuses, then they could have let AIG go to bankruptcy. Actions have consequences, as they should be learning, but won’t.

    Bankruptcy doesn’t mean the end of the world. It means the end of control for bad actors, and the end of the line for value-destroying businesses, and paves the way for better, healthier businesses in the future.

  299. 2010 Buyer says:

    [303 3b]

    Not sure I follow you, to me it looks like the program still exist in NJ. below is a better link. I agree with you though, it really more of a misleading marketing tool.

    http://www.state.nj.us/education/clear/blue/

  300. 3b says:

    Fresh on the market this afternoon in River Edge NJ, @ $624,900!!!

    Insanely over priced,and yet they still come on.

    http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2912530&id=999999

  301. lisoosh says:

    Shore – I’ll back Stu on this – McCain wasn’t the right guy for the job, especially with his Palin pick.

    The GOP should have gone with Mitt Romney if they wanted to show they were serious about the economy. Unfortunately none of them seemed to notice that this would be an issue.

  302. comrade nom deplume says:

    [295] chifi

    “Mob rule”

    Hey, he stole my line.

  303. skep-tic says:

    I was enthusiastic about Mitt. He is a great example about why the GOP should stop letting the religious right control the party.

  304. comrade nom deplume says:

    This from CNN, on education:

    WASHINGTON (CNN) – A new national poll indicates that most Americans would be willing to give up some control of their public schools to the federal government in return for more money from Washington for those schools.

    Why do I have a vision of Winston Smith re-writing history books? Well, since I will have to deprogram my children anyway, the federal revisionism won’t add that much work.

  305. zieba says:

    Yessss!!!

    Love the X3 in teh driveway. Financial equivalent of a tramp stamp.

    I drove by a house the other day, house for sale sign in the yard and just a few feet over? For sale sign on Mercedes sedan.

  306. lisoosh says:

    307 –

    Lots of schools in Abbot districts such as New Brunswick and Newark listed – for “improving”.

    The new Blue Ribbon designations are for No Child Left Behind.

  307. HEHEHE says:

    I am surprised this issue has taken so long to be raised:

    SEC Hunts for ‘Preferential’ Hedge-Fund Redemptions (Update2)
    Share | Email | Print | A A A

    By David Scheer

    March 20 (Bloomberg) — The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is examining whether hedge funds let favored clients or employees withdraw their money while freezing redemptions or liquidating funds, Commissioner Elisse Walter said.

    A surge in redemption suspensions and liquidations in the past year has created “particular concern as to whether hedge- fund advisers may be favoring their own interests above others,” Walter said today in prepared testimony to the House Financial Services Committee. “Principals, employees or favored investors of the hedge-fund adviser may have received ‘preferential redemptions’ from the fund at issue.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4xxDkLC16PI&refer=home

  308. 3b says:

    #313 zieba: I would guess they can no longer afford the house etc., and are trying to find some fool to bail them out.

  309. Shore Guy says:

    “McCain”

    I am not saying that I was a fan of Palin. I certainly did not nor I ever want her in the Presidency. What does bother me is how many Democrats got hoodwinked by B.O. and made him the candidate.

  310. comrade nom deplume says:

    [295] chifi

    Couple more quotes that seemed apropos today:

    “Abetting the merchants of hate are the Parasites of passion. These are the men who value a cause purely for its political
    mileage. These are the politicians who temporize with the truth by playing both sides to their own advantage. They ooze sympathy for “the cause” but balance each sentence with equally reasoned reservations. Their interest is personal, not moral. They are ideological
    eunuchs whose most comfortable position is straddling the philosophical fence, soliciting votes from both sides.”

    Spiro Agnew, 1969 (seems to sum up Frank and Dodd)

    “Where is the mob? I have to follow them. I am their leader.”

    Ledru-Rollin, French Revolutionary “leader” 1848. (future congressman???)

  311. Shore Guy says:

    “but there are far more sellers out there than buyers. ”

    That means that buyers are acting against their own interest and lessening their advantage by going to see or bidding on overprices homes.

    I said it in jest before but I think ther may be something to the “buyer’s strike” idea. Just pick a week and advocate that all home buyers sit on their hands and go to the park, work, the zoo, whatever, just refuse to look at holes that week. Then, refuse to look at any home that seems priced well above where it should be. Sellers will get the message, as will RE agents who may be inclined to put pressure on unrealistic sellers or refuse to accept their listing.

  312. grim says:

    All is good in the world Seaside, headline over at the Ledger:

    N.J. officials drop proposed ban on ‘Brazilian’ bikini wax

  313. A.West says:

    Is it really credible to think that today’s society and culture would somehow produce and desire a politician like George Washington or Thomas Jefferson? They’de boo them off the stage as soon as they started speaking the truth about the country’s own flaws. Instead the left continues to freak out about the sins of “the rich” and imagine the earth is about to melt, meanwhile the conservatives are praying for Jesus to build a wall that blocks people looking to work hard (aka immigrants) from entering the country, while talking about “family values”. It’s a disgusting spectacle, but ultimately one has to blame the audience for continuing to watch and feed the performers.

    Politicians’ “jobs” are to get elected, as far as I can tell. To do that, most seem to pander to the widely held beliefs of the voting population. Some steer it a bit, this way or that. Most are actually much more “followers” than leaders, at least intellectually, though they are activists when it comes to organizing people. I don’t get the feeling that there’s a “silent majority” out there who have strong and principled disagreements with the politicians, fundamentally. They (the public) just dislike the outcomes the politicians deliver after giving them the policies they ask for.

    As the misanthrope HL Mencken said, “Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.”

    Thus, I’d say a distaste for politicians implies a distaste for the views of one’s fellow man. I don’t like politicians either, but it is easy and inaccurate to place all the blame at their feet. Voters ultimately get roughly what they ask for. Politicians call themselves public servants, and many are just cynically just trying to appear to be public servants. But the most frightening thing of all is to realize that even the most crooked, corrupt politician, at some level, actually is a “public servant”, which doesn’t reflect well on “the public”.

    I place much more blame on the intellectuals and educators who set the stage for both public opinion and politicians. They are the ones who make it such that if all of today’s politicians were shot and carried away, they would soon be replaced by more of the same. Which is why all of my charitable donations go to an educational organization (the Ayn Rand Institute), rather than a political one.

  314. Shore Guy says:

    Grim,

    Now I can sleep tonight. Unless I actually think about the process.

  315. still_looking says:

    grim says:
    March 20, 2009 at 5:13 pm

    All is good in the world Seaside, headline over at the Ledger:

    N.J. officials drop proposed ban on ‘Brazilian’ bikini wax

    Oh. Hey! that’s not real estate related…. just who do you think you are anyway??

    Harumph. Isn’t this a RE blog??

    /snark.

    sl

  316. twobrain says:

    Does anyone have info about MLS#2611800? It is in livingston.

  317. Sastry says:

    Layman’s Question on AIG?

    When does it become OK to let AIG file Chapter 11 [with the government as the first in line]?

    What percentage of unwinding they have to do before it is a possibility. This is assuming that the doom and gloom is related to contracts that AIG is part of [and not, say, GS and DB having a side bet about whether AIG will fail].

    It clearly cannot be 1.5 to 2.5T “losses”? Right? Is it possible for them to get that far even with 30x leverage?

    S

  318. Shore Guy says:

    SL,

    Of course it is. How can anyone even think aboutbuying a shore house if they have to retain genital hair?

  319. NJGator says:

    Happy weekend everyone! Stu and I are going to spend the evening with 4 children under the age of 4. How much wine should we bring for that? I think it’s possible that gin cocktails might be needed instead.

  320. HEHEHE says:

    Excellent Jeff Macke piece on AIG:

    AIG: Bonuses Well-Earned, Well-Spent

    http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index/a/21755

  321. All Hype says:

    Oh. Hey! that’s not real estate related…. just who do you think you are anyway??
    ________________________________________

    Brazilian waxes are a very important and need to be preserved at all costs!

  322. Shore Guy says:

    Anyone hear the radio ads from the State of California pitching their bonds? I wonder if they pay the interest with IOUs.

  323. Silera says:

    I just want a house and a brazilian wax.

    Apparently, that is too much to ask for.

  324. Shore Guy says:

    Those Brazilian waxes are VERY important to RE values at the Shore. If people go running around with tufts of hair emerging from their bathing suits it reduces interest in being on the beaches and boards.

  325. Silera says:

    You may scoff Shore, but Rockaway Beach is not a vacation destination for that very reason.

  326. Shore Guy says:

    Hey lady! You can’t bring your dog onto the beach. Oops, sorry Miss. I didn’t realize.

  327. lisoosh says:

    Shore Guy says:
    March 20, 2009 at 5:07 pm

    “McCain”

    “I am not saying that I was a fan of Palin. I certainly did not nor I ever want her in the Presidency. What does bother me is how many Democrats got hoodwinked by B.O. and made him the candidate.”

    Reminds me of this article and specifically this quote:

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/184771

    “The American primary system, now about 100 years old, is disturbingly antidemocratic. It disenfranchises independents, who make up about a third of the electorate and aren’t allowed to vote in most party primaries. It pushes candidates in both parties to the extremes, which polarizes the debate in ways that don’t reflect the centrist views of the vast majority of Americans. And it allows a tiny handful of activist voters to determine who runs the country.

    How tiny? In 35 states, the presidential primaries are now held on an earlier date than those for governor, House, Senate and legislative seats. This greatly depresses turnout in the state and local races. Even in the civic-minded states of Iowa and New Hampshire, nonpresidential primary turnout was about 9 percent of registered voters (OK, they were burned out from their intense presidential contests). In Connecticut, it was 14 percent. South Carolina got up to 17 percent and California, 28 percent. That’s pathetic. And if you consider eligible voters, the numbers shrink further. All told, only about a seventh of adult citizens vote in nonpresidential primaries, which means that our representative democracy is not, well, representative.”

  328. comrade nom deplume says:

    Okay, this is too easy.

    “Sens. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) and Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) March 19 unveiled a proposal (S. 640) to boost the ability of the president to force Congress to reconsider individual spending or tax items, the second enhanced rescission bill in recent weeks.

    Under the “Second Look at Wasteful Spending Act of 2009,” the president could propose Congress rescind items in bills he has signed into law up to four times a year and, unlike the current rescission authority held by the president, Congress would be required to take a vote on the proposed rescissions.”

    _________

    I propose a slight change: It should be the Second Look At Wasteful Projects bill, or SLAWP

  329. comrade nom deplume says:

    [330] shore

    EWWWW

  330. comrade nom deplume says:

    Anyone else find this a bit ominous?

    “WASHINGTON (CNN) — Want to know where the presidential produce comes from?

    Take a walk past the White House. The answer may be planted right in front of you.

    First lady Michelle Obama helped break ground on a new White House “kitchen garden” Friday. It will be the first working garden at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue since Eleanor Roosevelt planted a so-called “victory garden” at the height of World War II.”

  331. lisoosh says:

    For a little levity, and to remind us how much is hyperbole:
    Love these commentaries on politics among the founding fathers.

    http://stevebrownetc.com/blogs/the-guest-room/gimme-that-old-time-politics/

    “You want to talk dirty politics? Oh, we’ll talk dirty. We’ll talk about . . . 1800!

    Thomas Jefferson was attacked by ministers who accused him of being an “infidel” and an “unbeliever.” A Federalist cartoon depicted him as a drunken anarchist, and the president of Yale warned that if Jefferson came to power, “we may see our wives and daughters the victims of legal pr0stitution.” A Connecticut newspaper warned that his election would mean “murder, robbery, r@pe, adultery and inc@st will openly be taught and practiced” — though the paper, which is now the Hartford Courant, did apologize some years later.”

    Or this:

    “Back in the day, political rhetoric was, as David Mark puts it in “Dirty Politics,” “shriller, hyperbolic, and downright mean.” It was racist — more than one candidate was rumored as being half-this or part-that — as well as hostile to certain religions and deeply personal. It was also occasionally bizarre. Historians differ on whether Jefferson was ridiculed for being raised on a diet of “hoe-cake” and “fricasseed bullfrog.” During Martin Van Buren’s presidency, a Pennsylvania congressman accused him of being so decadent that he landscaped the White House grounds into hills resembling “an Amazon’s bosom.””

  332. Silera says:

    I don’t vote. I follow the politics and form my opinions but at the end of the day I know my vote doesn’t matter so why bother.

    I won’t lie and say I wasn’t inspired by BO but I would have been just as thrilled with McCain. Palin didn’t even really bother me except for the prospect of her being actually in charge because she’s doofy.

  333. chicagofinance says:

    comrade nom deplume says:
    March 20, 2009 at 5:10 pm
    [295] chifi

    “Whee is the mob? I have to follow them. I am their leader.”
    Ledru-Rollin, French Revolutionary “leader”
    1848.

    AWESOME QUOTE…

  334. sas says:

    whats going on in the blogosphere?

    no more weekend open thread?

    SAS

  335. Clotpoll says:

    sastry (325)-

    My own personal estimate for AIG’s losses are a cool 1 trill. However, I’m no auditor.

    Mike Morgan is on the record as believing AIG’s losses run 2 tr- 5 tr.

  336. sas says:

    “Bank Failure Friday!”

    yup… I knew it was a matter of time today before Obama failure….err..

    I mean bank failure Friday.

    SAS

  337. sas says:

    political power was replaced by consumer power, after the consumer power crumbles… what next?

    SAS

  338. sas says:

    central banking and warfare has four phases:

    Phase One–Break It: Private syndicates make money destroying a place through organized crime, covert operations, warfare

    Phase Two- Buy It: The profit generated from breaking it is used to buy or seize “legal control” at a discount

    Phase Three- Fix It: Government funding, credit and subsidies are then used to “fix it” while harvesting remaining assets, including with narcotics trafficking, sex slavery and any other form of liquidating the human, intellectual, environmental and physical capital in a place

    Phase Four—Declare Victory: Victory is then declared and a flow of foundation and academic grants funded by the “break it-fix it” profits generate awards, photo opps and official archives and documentation for the perpetrators to be admired for their bringing of advanced civilization to the natives.

  339. chicagofinance says:

    HEHEHE says:
    March 20, 2009 at 5:36 pm
    Excellent Jeff Macke piece on AIG:
    AIG: Bonuses Well-Earned, Well-Spent

    He: this is tremendous; really pithy little passage….

  340. Hobokenite says:

    I seem to recall hearing that AIG employees were “in high demand”, which was why we had to pay them retention bonuses. That doesn’t seem to jive with the “working themselves into the unemployment line” bit.

  341. Sastry says:

    Clot… 1T makes the rouge traders (Nick Leeson and the other Soc Generale guy?) seem like really small fish. Nick Leeson was put in prison, and here we are talking about whether AIG folks should be given large bonuses or not.

    May be the laws that were put in were so bad — like the NINJA loans with -ve amortization.

    S

  342. Hobokenite says:

    2 more bank failures, along with 2 credit unions.

  343. Hobokenite says:

    Courtesy of CR.

  344. Shore Guy says:

    Stu,

    This is right up your alley:

    http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=7131404

  345. safeashouses says:

    #160 Pat,

    Reflux can also be triggered by citrus, high acid foods like tomatoes, and chocolate.

    My son has it. He’s no longer on meds for it, but we still don’t let him touch citrus or chocolate bars. Chocolate chip cookies seem to be fine, but a chocolate bar can still trigger it.

    Also things that get gummy or chewy like hot or hamburger buns seem to trigger it too.

  346. Shore Guy says:

    WickedOrange,

    Someone I met recently told me that the Syracuse mascot used to be a box of saltines. What is that all about?

  347. Sean says:

    O’bama is dancing on the edge of a volcano

    http://counterpunch.org/

  348. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Regulators seize two large corporate credit unions

    The National Credit Union Administration Board said Friday it has placed two large corporate credit unions into conservatorship “to stabilize the corporate credit union system and resolve balance sheet issues.” The NCUA said Lenexa, Kan.-based U.S. Central Federal Credit Union and San Dimas, Calif.-based Western Corporate were placed into conservatorship “to protect retail credit union deposits and the interest of the National Credit Union Share Insurance Fund.” U.S. Central has roughly $34 billion in assets and WesCorp has $23 billion in assets, the NCUA said. Corporate credit unions are chartered to act as a sort of clearinghouse for credit unions serving consumers.

  349. sas says:

    Mao’s Red Guards??

    “Obama plans huge pledge drive for his policies”

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/03/20/MNMO16JJDF.DTL&tsp=1

    -Volunteers recruited online by Obama’s Organizing for America, a post-election group, will ask citizens to sign a pledge in support of the president’s policies on energy, health care and education.

  350. skep-tic says:

    “As the financial crisis has evolved its moral has been simplified, grotesquely. In the beginning this crisis was messy. Wall Street financiers behaved horribly but so did ordinary Americans. Millions of people borrowed money they shouldn’t have borrowed and, not, typically, because they were duped or defrauded but because they were covetous and greedy: they wanted to own stuff they hadn’t earned the right to buy.

    On the Line

    But now that taxpayer money is on the line the story has changed: innocent taxpayers are now being exploited by horrible Wall Street financiers. The guy who defaulted on mortgages on his six spec houses in the Nevada desert has turned himself into the citizen enraged by the bonuses paid to the AIG employees trying to sort out the mess caused by his defaults.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_lewis&sid=atlHxXH7FweQ

  351. Sean says:

    re#359 SaS – What happens if you don’t sign the the Obama pledge?

  352. jamil says:

    sean: führer requires absolute loyalty pledge. Die or vote!

  353. grim says:

    From BusinessWire:

    Drug Fair to Hold Going Out of Business Sale

    rug Fair Group, Inc. (“Drug Fair”), which operates pharmacies and general merchandise stores under the Drug Fair and Cost Cutters names, today announced that it will conduct a court-ordered bankruptcy liquidation sale in 23 stores. The sale, which will begin on Saturday, March 21, 2009, will be managed by Hudson Capital Partners, LLC.

    Store List: Drug Fair (DF) and Cost Cutters (CC) locations to hold liquidation sale:

    Berkeley Heights (DF)
    Rahway (DF)
    Bricktown (CC)
    Middletown (CC)
    Raritan (DF)
    Hamilton (CC)
    W Long Branch (CC)
    Lacey (CC)
    Wall (CC)
    Cranford (DF)
    Oakland (DF)
    Hillsborough (CC)
    Wayne (CC)
    Toms River (CC)
    Chatham (DF)
    Clifton (DF)
    Plainfield (DF)
    North Arlington (DF)
    Clifton (DF)
    Morris Plains (DF)
    Bridgewater (DF)
    East Rutherford (DF)
    Rockaway (DF)

  354. 3b says:

    #346 So let me get this straight some employees created a product at AIG that they did not understand,and GS took advantage of them.

    And now they have to be paid to unwind the product they made, that they did not understand in the first place?

  355. Sean says:

    3b – AIG’s CEO testified this week that they have about 1.6 trillion in derivatives with CDS now nearly being wound down. Supposedly those that were on the CDS desk are gone, the rest remain to unwind the rest of the book, oil contracts, interest and currency derivatives etc, just like what is being done right now with Bear and Lehman and heck even Madoff’s books, you need to keep people around to unwind the book.

    Congress glossed over that, do to the mob mentality, pitchforks and torches this week, and this 90% tax legislation if passed will only cause more damage to the markets.

    I am going to go short on the US dollar and Treasuries. It will more than make up for my losses do to the 90% clawback taxes if passed.

  356. Central has roughly $34 billion in assets and WesCorp has $23 billion in assets

    These were of fairly substantial size, at least compared to what we’ve seen on BFF for the past few months.
    I’m assuming there was CRE exposure here?

    Much of the “common sense” I’ve heard from varying people was that the credit unions were somehow safe, or safer, than C, BAC, etc. They can’t explain why this is, but it is insisted on.

  357. Outofstater says:

    Re: Drug Fair – Sorry to see it go. I used to ride my bike to the one in my town when I was a kid.

  358. Clotpoll says:

    I thought Drug Fair was the name for the ‘hood off Rt 27 in Somerset.

  359. sas says:

    Terence Corcoran: Is this the end of America?
    http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1407571

  360. safeashouses says:

    Grim.

    I just made a small donation.

  361. safeashouses says:

    I used to work for Drug Fair in the 90’s. I felt top management back then was penny wise and pound foolish.

    I feel sorry for the worker bees who will lose their jobs. Most of the people who were asst managers or higher when I was there I strongly disliked.

  362. safeashouses says:

    The feds took over 2 credit unions with assets of 57 billion.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/news/companies/credit_unions/index.htm?postversion=2009032021

    Got yuan?

  363. safeashouses says:

    I guess bad things do come in 3s

    Regulators close 3 more banks.

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/20/news/companies/bank_failure/index.htm?postversion=2009032021

  364. Libet Kornhuser says:

    Linked in #371: Terence Corcoran: Is this the end of America?

    “The U. S. economy has pulled out of self-destructive political spirals in the past, spurred on by its business class and corporate leaders, the profit-making and market-creating people who rose above the political turmoil to once again lift the world out of financial crisis.”

    To some degree the above is true. But so is…

    “The U. S. economy has pulled out of self-destructive business spirals in the past, spurred on by its political class and labor leaders, the non-profit and market-creating people who rose above the business turmoil to once again lift the world out of a crisis in general prosperity.”

    Forgive me if I don’t totally buy the Ayn Randish view of corporate executives as god-like beings carrying the world on their shoulders.

  365. Happy Camper says:

    Great game last nite. Too bad the Red Bulls lost, but it was great to see the Sounders’ stadium come alive.

    HC

  366. Happy Camper says:

    Sounders: Seattle

    Football: soccer

    HC

  367. Pat says:

    bairen, thanks for the suggestions. At this point, we’ll try anything. She’s pathetic with the throat clearing.

  368. Mike says:

    I used to follow this site religiously through the bubble (2003-2007) as I was a firm believer. Now I avoid it as it is just downright depressing. Everything article about how bad it is is linked… yet, reality is, that while it sucks for 10-20% of the people, it’s business as usual for the rest.

  369. safeashouses says:

    #380 Pat,

    no worries. also spicy food is another trigger.

  370. Happy Camper says:

    Mike,

    if you have been reading for the past couple of weeks, you ain’t the only one with the same feeling about this site.

    HC

  371. lisoosh says:

    Clotpoll says:
    March 20, 2009 at 10:16 pm

    “I thought Drug Fair was the name for the ‘hood off Rt 27 in Somerset.”

    Commonly known as New Brunswick.

  372. Happy Camper says:

    the NYT, as always, had a great article (or blog) about it.

    HC

  373. Stu says:

    As a former sufferer of esophageal reflux, my relapses can be attributed to the excess of 4 ingredients. Caffeine, which causes the valve that is supposed to close in the esophagus. Alcohol, similar reason. Smoking, similar reasons and finally stress. When I combine any two or three of these, it comes on like wildfire. I can safely do one at a time without any issue whatsoever. Stress is the tough one as I tend to suppress it unknowingly.

    I used to work at a job where I was forced to lie to vendors about getting paid putting our clients’ work at risk. Once I quit that job, my worst reflux disappeared overnight.

    Now I just can’t drink, smoke or abuse coffee simultaneously.

  374. Happy Camper says:

    “Now I just can’t drink, smoke or abuse coffee simultaneously.”

    Some of the best pleasures of life. Sorry.

    HC

  375. Sean says:

    re: #215 chicagofinance

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aB1jlqmFOTCA&refer=exclusive

    FYI chicagofinance, I have done work for the gun toting wall st crowd and perhaps SaS has as well. Question is have you?

  376. Stu says:

    I hope they do make naked short selling illegal, especially in NJ now that they are considering a Brazilian wax ban.

  377. dancing raisin (fka starting over in nj) says:

    Twobrain (#324)

    MLS #2611800

    97 Keyes Road
    Livingston

    LP:$399,000

    partly finished new construction

    48 x 150 lot

    Sold 1-24-07 for $300,000 with a small bungalow on it

  378. Pat says:

    My daughter has somehow started to enjoy garam masala and such. Tonight, with her dinner, she ate spicy Mediterranean hummus on chipotle tosadas.

    She’s going cold turkey tomorrow. We’ll see.

    And Stu, if you have any pain in the upper or lower stomach, go get that H-pylori test. Just to be safe. Two weeks on prevpack and it’s like heaven.

  379. Stu says:

    Pat,

    Thanks for the advice. I have had the reflux come back for about one day per year and always from getting too smashed off of hard liquor, which tends to make me want to smoke. One Pepcid, or Tagament and I’m good.

    I never get run of the mill heartburn either. Probably had a total of 10 tums in my life.

  380. chicagofinance says:

    Sean says:
    March 20, 2009 at 11:38 pm
    re: #215 chicagofinance
    FYI chicagofinance, I have done work for the gun toting wall st crowd and perhaps SaS has as well. Question is have you?

    S: Fraud may have been the final nail in the coffin, but that idiotic Michael Moore vitriol makes it appear as if these companies would have survived without this practice…..and that assertion is a load of crap……what happened was more euthanasia Dr. Kervorkian style, but death was imminent regardless….

  381. chicagofinance says:

    Moorer

  382. Sean says:

    Chiacago

    The Fed bailouts and TARP have surely given hardened criminals lots of time to get outa Dodge. My point is maybe the FEDs don’t want to catch them.

    We are hearing only about the small fish, not the real minds of the FIRE rackets. Madeoff is one exception since he confessed, the rest are still walking the streets. Don’t think for a moment they aren’t profiting and planning for more ill gotten gains.

    In my next career I may want to join the DOJ, if not them then perhaps then a a job under the Texas Rangers under President Norris.

  383. Jim says:

    #132 schivio

    Please remember that real estate is an extension of politics by other means.

  384. DL says:

    Mike, ref 381: I think the overwhelming evidence, reflected here, it that a tidel wave is coming and although only a minority have so far been affected, that will change. During the 73 recession I found a job out of college in 74, and in the 79-80 flat period I never noticed. I agree that in a normal recession most of us work-a-day slugs could care less. But the sea-change in the magnitude, nature, and likely outcome mean everyone of us will notice the difference, and not just those who have lost a job or are trying to buy a house. I hope I’m wrong.

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  415. John358 says:

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  438. John1598 says:

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  471. John1771 says:

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  472. John1749 says:

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  473. John1749 says:

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  482. John1771 says:

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  483. John1490 says:

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  485. John1490 says:

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  486. John1771 says:

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  488. John1490 says:

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  498. John920 says:

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  499. John920 says:

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  509. John1178 says:

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  511. John868 says:

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  512. John1178 says:

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  516. John1178 says:

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  523. John993 says:

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  526. John993 says:

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  529. John993 says:

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  550. John582 says:

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  559. John1318 says:

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  566. John993 says:

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  628. John1407 says:

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  672. John1413 says:

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  674. John976 says:

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  680. John1413 says:

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  731. John1024 says:

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  736. John1315 says:

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  759. John1383 says:

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Comments are closed.