Tue 5 May 2009
Home sales recovery skips the Northeast
Categories: Economics , Housing Bubble , National Real EstateFrom the Philly Inquirer:
Area pending home sales below national levels
Pending home sales in the eight-county Philadelphia area fell 14.7 percent in March from February, a downward trend that has been nearly uninterrupted since the subprime-mortgage meltdown began in August 2007.
By contrast, national pending sales rose 3.2 percent in March, thanks to huge numbers of foreclosure and short sales in the West and Florida at prices discounted as much as 50 percent, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday. It was the second consecutive monthly gain in pending sales.
…
According to Prudential Fox & Roach HomExpert, which provides the local figures, pending sales in the Philadelphia region in March were 23.6 percent below the same month in 2008. Nationally, they were 1.1 percent higher than March 2008.The real estate firm measures pending home sales with an index that is adjusted for seasonal variations. Although the index fell in March, the actual number of pending sales increased. Based on that rise, the index for April should be more positive, said Steve Storti, Prudential Fox & Roach senior vice president.
Nationally, there has been a tendency since the beginning of this year to read every positive sign in housing as signaling the end of the industry downturn. But NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, “We need several months of sustained growth to demonstrate a recovery in housing, which is necessary for the overall economy to turn around.”
From BusinessWeek:
Has the housing bust hit bottom yet?
The latest encouraging data came on May 4, when the National Assn. of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.2% from February to March.
…
First of all, remember what pending means. These are homes that have gone under contract—but have not actually sold. The Realtors’ association says that based on historical data, the pending sales numbers do closely track future sales. But the correlation is much stronger in the year-over-year data than it is in the month-over-month numbers. The increase over March 2008 was much more modest, just 1.1%.
…
Another reason for caution is that the home sales recovery—if you can call it that—isn’t nationwide. Pending sales in the Northeast fell 5.7% from February to March. Meanwhile, much of the market—more than 40% of all sales nationally—is being driven by banks unloading foreclosed homes at distressed prices. Higher-end homes are not selling anywhere near as well as cheaper homes. That’s not an indicator of a truly healthy housing market.
First?
From the Times of Trenton:
Real estate agents getting more optimistic
The stock market rose yesterday on reports of better-than-expected home sales and construction spending across much of the country, but the impact locally remains unclear.
The National Association of Realtors said its index of pending home sales rose 3.2 percent in March, the second monthly increase after it hit a record low in January. The index is also 1.1 percent above last year’s levels.
…
The performance of the pending sale index varied regionally. In the Northeast it actually fell 5.7 percent in March, and is 24.1 percent below a year ago.
State figures were not available, but agents in New Jersey report that more sellers are accepting lower prices and first-time homebuyers are slowly beginning to take advantage of a new $8,000 federal tax credit.
“It takes the first-time homebuyers a little longer. They have to bring out their parents,” said Diane Dilzell, president of the New Jersey Association of Realtors. “But things certainly are moving, and they’re certainly better than they were in November and December.”
Dilzell cautioned that the state has been behind the national trend in both the market downturn and the recovery that may be taking hold.
“We didn’t get in our housing crisis overnight, and it’s not going to take care of itself overnight,” she said.
From the APP:
County lays off 100 workers
About 100 Monmouth County government employees lost their jobs Monday, the result of economy-driven layoffs that county officials said will create payroll savings of several million dollars.
The layoffs included clerical staff, public works, law enforcement and other departments. An exact amount of payroll savings was not available Monday.
One of the hardest hit units was the Sheriff’s Department, where 14 officers were put out of work, two sergeants were demoted to lower ranks, and 38 corrections officers at the jail also were laid off.
From the Record:
New Jersey’s largest health insurer cuts 253 jobs
New Jersey’s largest health insurer says it is eliminating more than 250 jobs as part of an overall strategy to reduce costs.
Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey says 170 employees received layoff notices today. The company says another 83 open positions will not be filled.
Horizon says it is forecasting flat enrollment for the year due to rising unemployment and employer benefit cutbacks.
Besides the layoffs, the company says it has taken a number of other steps to reduce operating expenses. They include reductions in advertising, travel and other administrative costs. Salary increases also have been reduced or eliminated.
From Law.com:
Wolf Block WARN Act Filings Detail Layoff Numbers
The end of April meant the availability of Wolf Block’s WARN Act filings across three states.
The filings, required by federal law when a company with more than 100 employees lays off at least 50 at one site, detail the numbers of employees affected by Wolf Block’s March 23 vote to dissolve.
The largest group is out of the firm’s Philadelphia headquarters where 235 people were laid off. The firm also reported 15 people were affected out of its Harrisburg, Pa., location.
The second largest group was across Wolf Block’s two New Jersey offices. Between Roseland and Cherry Hill, 121 people were let go. Wolf Block’s New York office reported 57 people were affected by the dissolution.
Is “avoid meth-dealing mom” one of the Joba rules?
Hey, I’ve gotta get out early and grab a McMuffin, but anybody notice the bond market’s taking it on the chin?
Think I’ll have a McCafe and some large fries, too.
That sas is onto something.
From Bloomberg:
‘Green Shoots’ Won’t Lead Economies Out of Woods: Matthew Lynn
Spring has arrived and everyone is fed up talking about the greatest depression since the 1930s. So now there are “green shoots” everywhere.
On one day last week, Bloomberg carried 118 articles and research reports from many sources in which the most durable of horticultural metaphors was deployed. They weren’t isolated cases.
“I do indeed see green shoots for the European economy,” Ewald Nowotny, a council member of the European Central Bank, said at a press conference in Vienna last week.
“We’re beginning to see some healthy signs — the stirrings of what I call green shoots,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said last month.
The trouble is, most of them are nonsense. Over the next few months, you are going to hear a whole series of increasingly ridiculous and bogus signals of recovery trumpeted as if they heralded the end of the recession. All will be meaningless.
“By contrast, national pending sales rose 3.2 percent in March, thanks to huge numbers of foreclosure and short sales in the West and Florida at prices discounted as much as 50 percent, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday”
50% off and this is the best we can do?
Distressed sales, coming to a neighborhood close to you.
Hello folks,
I’m a newbie to this site and I plan on buying a “starter” home (be gentle….i.e. 300K-500k) within the next 1-1.5 years. That said, I wanted to pose the following questions for the board:
1) What towns in Bergen, Passaic, and Essex do you think will realize the greatest appreciation within the next 5-10 years? Why? (The reasons behind your answers would help.)
2) What towns in Bergen, Passaic, and Essex do you think will realize the greatest loss (or remain stagnant) within the next 5-10 years? Why?
3) Specifically, what are your thoughts on Englewood, Paramus, Ridgewood, Fair Lawn and Montclair?
All opinions are welcome. Any thoughts/ comments would be very helpful. Thanks.
“It takes the first-time homebuyers a little longer. They have to bring out their parents,”
Akin to the medical community bringing out Kevorkian.
thanks Clot and Still from previous thread..good luck NJC with your FIL..
anyone see that condi rice video of her bit*hing at college students and talking down to them?
dont have a link, just saw it on GMA.
she’s a nice, that woman
Looking for more about [term]?
Monday, May 4, 2009
The Mystery That Is SPY Advertised Volume
Posted by Tyler Durden at 10:42 PM
Not surprisingly in today’s (or more appropriately, insert x calendar period) increasingly odd trading action, the total advertised SPY volume was gobs (this is not a DeMarkian technical term) lower than Friday’s. And oddest of all… Morgan Stanley is not anywhere in the top 12 advertised brokers. Has the accumulation/deleveraging passed? But oddness is the theme de jour. Anyone who tries to make sense of it is ridiculed or receives outright motivational calls from assorted Czarist departments.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/mystery-that-is-spy-advertised-volume.html#disqus_thread
he [15],
Volume peaked on 3/20. The trendline has been declining since.
Chi,
No disclaimer required.
[16],
That’s dow volume.
Who says the first timers parents have any dough left?
Do that many people really get help from the parents for a down payment.
Clot,
I imagine you love dealing with diane dizell…..
How’s it keep going up and up and up?
he [19],
More buyers than sellers, at this time.
Last
Tuesday Outlook: Where’s the Volume?
Those of us who are long, and/or were dragged into positions kicking and screaming, just have to accept the fact you can’t fight the tape or more powerful forces exceeding your own basic logic. So am I, or are we, weak minded? Maybe, but I’d say we’re just systematic.
The market reminds me greatly of May 2003 when a rally began in earnest off what really were double bottoms of October 2002 and March 2003. Then, as now, a rally was fueled by low interest rates, money printing and the start of a new bubble, this one in housing. As we’ve often stated, politicians and the officials they pressure will always choose inflation over making hard choices. It’s the Achilles’ heel of democracy where short-term performance is rewarded at the ballot box since the Sheeple don’t understand or want other alternatives.
The quote of the day comes from the tax cheat in chief, and man, does this take some hubris!
“We will eliminate indefensible tax breaks and loopholes which allow some companies and some well-off citizens to evade the rules that the rest of America lives by.”
Turbo Tax Tim Geithner
Alright, as my son’s generation would say: “Dude, where’s the volume?” The equity market remains in the hands of trading desks and hedge funds. But, this just makes me more suspicious than anything. They don’t put volume data on your monthly performance or brokerage statement. And, what the hell, we’re making money, right?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/135274-tuesday-outlook-where-s-the-volume
BC (20) -
“More buyers than sellers, at this time.”
Classic! As BC has said before, markets make the news and not the other way around. There are so many variables which make a market that there is no one plausible explanation as to why the market is doing what it is doing.
I am beginning to think that trying to explain the markets movements is a fool’s game.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124147831175584985.html
“We Can’t Subsidize the Banks Forever” WSJ
Matthew Richardson and Nouriel Roubini
“Consider also recent bank risk-taking. The media has recently reported that Citigroup and Bank of America are buying up some of the AAA tranches of nonprime mortgage-backed securities. Didn’t the government provide insurance on portfolios of $300 billion and $118 billion on the very same stuff for Citi and BofA last year? These securities are at the heart of the financial crisis and the core of the PPIP. If true, this is egregious behavior. - and its incredible that there are no restrictions against it.”
I get that, just it’s like there are few sellers and just a few more buyers and it’s been that way for a month. It’s like a 30% market move with no conviction.
Jon: You mentioned Englewood, Paramus, Ridgewood, Fair Lawn and Montclair.
Englewood/Montclair - Nice center of town, some rough areas though
Paramus - Avoid living by the malls, town has no character
Ridgewood - Probably the best of the bunch
Fair Lawn - Working class town, does not the prestigious factor to it.
“Pending sales in the Northeast fell 5.7% from February to March”
conspiracy theory. not true.
doesn’t exist. get out your tinfoil hat.
SAS
:)
SAS
A sign that the pump is coming to an end?
“JPMorgan’s Mowat Recommends Chinese Financial Stocks”
I still remember Citi recommending shorting banking stocks at the beginning on this monster rally.
1) What towns in Bergen, Passaic, and Essex do you think will realize the greatest appreciation within the next 5-10 years? Why? (The reasons behind your answers would help.)
2) What towns in Bergen, Passaic, and Essex do you think will realize the greatest loss (or remain stagnant) within the next 5-10 years? Why?
I’ll ignore the 5 year comment, who cares about 5 years. If you’ve got a 5 year horizon, don’t bother buying.
Now, 10 years out where it gets interesting.
Why?
Trans-Hudson tunnel will give midtown direct access to towns on the Raritan Valley, Main, Bergen, and Pascack Valley Lines.
This will effectively destroy the “train-town” premium enjoyed by towns that currently have one-seat midtown access.
That being said, towns like Montclair will lose the premium, while towns in Passaic and Bergen will gain it.
Should be completed in the next 8-10 years.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/goldman-connection-puts-ny-fed-official-in-tight-spot/
Clot - More on the Friedman/Goodman/Fed situation from yesterday - video from Kate Kelly - WSJ by way of The Big Picture
On a side note, Fair Lawn and Saddle Brook were two towns my wife and I were considering. We aren’t prestigious town material, so we stuck to working class towns. We ended up buying in Southern Bergen County and are happy there. The reality is there isn’t a perfect place to live. Every town, county, and state has some kind of problem or issue. As far as schools go, well, we just don’t buy into the hype. I went to a very prestigious high school in Bergen County (at least that is what the Realtors would have you think) and my wife went to a not so great high school in Hudson County. Guess what? She did quite well for herself..better than me lol. So back to schools, yeah, parenting is greater than schools as long as a school is safe, that is all that matters. Learning can be difficult when you are in fear for your life. Would it be nice to live in Ridgewood? Yeah, probably. I would take a large victorian in Ridgewood. Would I like the residents of Ridgewood? Probably not having worked in Ridgewood I met many of the residents..and as I said before, my wife and I just aren’t into that kind of lifestyle/attitude.
tbw [32],
Well said.
Parenting and Schools are overated. The little brats need to man up and realize they decide where they want to be in life. Our friend Joba was a dirt poor fatso with a cripple dad and a meth dealing Mom and he wanted to be a Yankee and he did it.
Some sellers in Chatham, NJ continue to beliefe that the housing recession does not affect Chatham.
Cases in Point:
91 Westminster: This well lived in home appears to be an estate sale. It is priced at $924K and is all original and not maintained. The realtor has overpriced this by $125K or better as other homes on that street, totally redone have sold for $925K, last year in a better market.
5 Dale Drive: This one comes with its own dungeon. A true 3 bedroom, they added a 4th bedroom in the corner of the basement for that stepchild you dont like. Great location on the busiest corner in Chatham Township. Needs a large scale renovation. Same dillusional realtor at the 24 Westminster home.
23 Hampton Road: Ever want your a free jungle gym for your kids to climb on? Well the next best thing is having your very own, 80 foot high, power tower with high tension wires for kids to climb on. This home priced at $939K (aka precrash prices) sits forever on the market.
56 Johnson Drive: listed and relisted yet it stays at the same price of $1.14mil despite that it needs updating and is on one of the worst blocks location wise in Chatham.
93 Chatham Street: This small Cape Cod home is another one that lingers on the market. Just reduced to $949K its still $200-300K overpriced.
24 Longwood: On the market close to a year at $997K with no price reductions. “Price drop? Not in Chatham”
23 Maple: another hom on close to a year with only a $50K price reduction despite a tiny backyard and a location near a cemetary. When its time to go, you will always be near home. some value in that I guess.
55 Fairview: House with zero curb appeal and just reduced to $1.395mil this despite another home/comp selling for around $900K just about a month ago.
66 Fairview: Slightly bigger with some curb appeal and updates but still about $400K overpriced at $1.435mil
253 Washington: Attach a Washington Avenue address in Chatham and the people will go wild! Not for this very small and dark home priced at $1.4 mil. One car garage and an 8 x 8 ft kitchen make this nightmare complete.
28 Dellwood: This one, priced at $1.499mil needs a wrecking ball as it has not been updated in many a decade. It also backs up to a noisy school. Other realtors told the people it was worth $999K, yet one realtor wanted the listing so he overshot it by $500K. Now it sits and sits and sits and sits.
8 Kincaid: This one sits on a ridge and had lovely views for $1.695 million. Its been sold twice only to come back on the market after home inspection. Did someone say structural issues? thats usually a deal breaker, especially on a newer home like this.
18 Highland: This modular home, placed on the spot by the current owner, has been languishing out there for more than half a year. The owner needs to sell as they are real estate flippers burnign thru their savings. the realtor is begging for any offer, even a million (which is almost $700K less than the ask price).
27 Dale Drive: This owner wanted $1.99 mil despite the fact that he paid less in the 2005 Crazed market. He refuses to believe that the market in Chatham has dropped. The high tension wires in his backyard dont help this house which has $31K in taxes.
45 Highland: On the market for close to a year, this builder owned home is $2 mil. While certainly a nice home, the frontal design is not appealing and it is probably about $600-800K overpriced.
1 Woods lane: Priced at $2.195 million, this home is ugly from the front but certainly beautiful inside. Another home with a bad location, this house is $800K over assessment. As we know in Chatham, most homes sell for around assessment or less. If you really want to sell.
Home you like the reviews, you can see photos on Trulia. Worth the look/laugh.
J,
It certainly helps if you have a 99 mph fastball.
oh tbw…
you are so yesterday & behind the times.
you ain’t cool like the people in Ridgewood unless you are on serotonin reuptake inhibitors & you don’t know anything about your kids while they “chasing the white dragon”.
lame duck.
I drive the best car on the block all paid with credit on a 10 year loan.
beat that!
SAS
#11 John,
I would not expect any appreciation over the next 5-10 years anywhere in NJ. Housing bubbles tend to correct in 2 phases; 1) prices fall (as we are seeing now) as foreclosures hit the market, job losses mount and those who are unwilling or unable to hold on are forced to sell and 2) a prolonged period of stagnation as those who can’t afford to sell or refuse dig in and wait for a recovery.
On top of this, NJ has some very serious structural problems that will mute any recovery. I don’t think many of the jobs we lost will come back to NJ. On top of this, Wall Street is likely to look different in the future as well.
As far as what towns will hold up the; in general, “lower end” homes saw the greatest amount of exuberance and probably have the farthest to fall.
Weeee, I can not afford my $5,700 apartment in TriBeCa, weeeeeeeeee
They are going to foreclose on my Hamptons house next week. Weeeeeeee
I feel their pain, I can not afford to live in Manhattan, welcome to the USA.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/05/nyregion/05evict.html?_r=1&hp
if you ever wonder why so many people seem like they are brain dead zombie, here is a little hint:
“More Americans taking drugs for mental illness”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090505/hl_nm/us_mental_drugs
but don’t worry, your local sap doctor gets nice little free office supplies and pizza/sushi lucnhes each time they help a sales rep meet quotas.
create a need.. and fill it
SAS
Very helpful…Thanks folks…Any other thoughts on the Trans Hudson tunnel? Which towns will realize the greatest benefit from this project? Which be affected most?
Frank,
“weeeeeeeeee”
is that you swinging out on 23 Hampton Road?
i thought that was your place.
“23 Hampton Road: Ever want your a free jungle gym for your kids to climb on? Well the next best thing is having your very own, 80 foot high, power tower with high tension wires for kids to climb on. This home priced at $939K (aka precrash prices) sits forever on the market”
:P
SAS
ok, i gotta get serious with my life.
later blokes.
SAS
#24,
“Citigroup and Bank of America are buying up some of the AAA tranches of nonprime mortgage-backed securities.”
How do you think they made all the money last quarter? By trading this junk. Otherwise it will cost you even more money to bail them out.
#41: sas…yes I tend to agree with that every time I am either at the supermarket or on the highway…
Frank [45],
Freebie.
Re 32, what is up with that “working class” nonsense? The doctors, lawyers, dentists who studied their butts off and now work 60 hours a week are not workers? but the HS drop out with BS town job are?
#27 sas:
“Pending sales in the Northeast fell 5.7% from February to March”
conspiracy theory. not true.
doesn’t exist. get out your tinfoil hat.
Translation please?
48. John. You speak some truth.
48: Okay, would you like the word “blue collar towns” or “lower middle class towns” better Mr. Literal?
how about white trash?
#30 grim: Who knows if in 10 years train service to NYC from anywhere in NNJ will mean so much.
Who knows what NYC will be like? Will Wall st jobs will no lomnger be the draw that they once were. How about legal, publishing? Not disagreeing with you, just saying that 10 years out is just to long to look at what the economic/financial job outlook will be in both NNJ and NYC.
Personally I think it is ironic that NJ is spending all this money so its residents can have a better commute to work in another state.
One could argue the money might be better spent on economic development in the state.
IMO it is fairly convenient to get into NYC now from most of NNJ towns, why waste all this money on a tunnel.
And as far as a time frame to build. Well NJ Transit just finishhed renovating the River Edge train station, new roof, electrical, paint, and black top, at a cost of almost 700K.
And it took 1 year to complete!!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_trash
52: lol…yeah…there is some of that as well…but that doesn’t bother me. I happen to like Camaros on front lawns. Adds character to a house.
#53,
How about $100K to renovate old train station in Matawan, NJ to preserve it’s historical value?? What a waste of money.
BC (16)-
Sell in May, and go away.
Could become sell in May, and go to hell.
stan (18)-
Don’t know her.
#56Did it take 1 year to complete?
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/Ho-Ho-Kus_NJ_07423_1107693893
This under 400K short sale sold for over 500K in Ho Ho Kus around 3 or 4 years ago.
#59,
It took 5 years and a lot of money to study the situation, then 1 week to paint it for $100K.
vic (29)-
JPM’s just trying to extend the pump a little longer. However, putting a buy call on Chinese financials leaves airlines as the only money-dumpster left for the analysts to push. And, I have no doubt that some outfit will put a buy on the airline sector before the bottom falls out.
Classic bear-market rally, led by the worst sectors, program-traded in low volumes. Green shoots, indeed.
All disclaimers. Only bi knows the score.
This site is like a book club where nobody reads the book. Is anyone going to comment on the article related to the thread?
Well it happened. Below is listed a 3 bed 1 bath house at a year 2000 price of 299K.
Bergen Co blue ribbon train town.
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2919978&id=999999
Cindy (31)-
Self-dealing, raised to an art form. Done as only a true GS’er can do it.
Of course the guy can’t see the conflict of interest. GS only hires sociopaths.
from 281# previous tread
make 2 handles: take this as a serious warning. you have trespassed a peasant’s property! (as far as i know, grim is big wage earner)
> make money says:
May 4, 2009 at 5:05 pm
Zach,
When it comes to making money you can’t shine my shoes. I have a phrase I like to use that goes something like this “What do I know, I’m retired”.
You’ll learn soon enough that if you work for a paycheck then you’re nothing but a peasant.
J [63],
Already have, #10.
Shelley (35)-
You got a real estate license? We should talk.
If you work for a paycheck and you don’t earn much it ain’t the man keeping you down it is your own stupid self.
http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/245.html
Grim #9,
I saw one of the worst “green shoots” stories yesterday, when the AP or Reuters wrote up the construction spending report. They reported it up 0.3% in March. The headline was that construction spending was up. This was better than expected, even, which is genuinely noteworthy. But it was only towards the bottom of the page that the reporter happened to mention in passing that construction spending was down over 10% versus March 2008. Thus they were celebrating seasonality more than growth. So March construction is virtually always higher than February construction, and normally, only an idiot would report month on month gains. But they’re desperate for good news, so make an exception in 2009.
This is like concluding that there is global warming in April because of seasonal temperature rises.
#63 John: What is there to cooment on? We already know. This area was the last to peak, and the last to fall, and prices have not finished falling yet.
John, it is just a club of wanna-be-home-owners and loser-renters!
S
“Translation please?”
I was being silly.
thats all.
I like to close my eyes when I drive thru the EZ pass and tell myself it doesn’t exist.
Its the best way to not pay it.
:P
SAS
I am a POS pre-bubble starter home owner trapped due to bubble and unwilling to trade up until we hit bottom.
Sastry says:
May 5, 2009 at 9:34 am
John, it is just a club of wanna-be-home-owners and loser-renters!
S
[73] sastry,
And chagrinned bag-holders (i.e., property tax payers in NJ). Let’s not forget us! After all, I am paying for this bailout.
Green Shoots, arising from a barren land where all the roots are rotten, is like the Fools Gold in Fort Knox.
Jon,
Regarding buying in Bergen,
Realize that we are in the beginning stages of the recent housing bubble bursting. the 90’s housing bubble took about 9 years to go from peak to break even.
Realistically, anything less then 10 years and you are likely to be in negative territory.
There is also the point that if the US is seeing a japanese style collapse, then its likely that some areas will never recover to previous highs. Along that line, NJ has some the highest taxes in the nation and faces crushing pension burdens.
As clot has said before, you may have personal reasons that make buying the best option for you, but from a financial stand point there is no reason to buy at this time. Rents are dropping, so you would probably be better off finding a rental you wouldn’t mind living in for a few years, and then reassess your buy decision in 2 - 3 years.
“The doctors, lawyers, dentists who studied their butts off and now work 60 hours a week are not workers?”
-yes & no. most (not all, so don’t give me your isolated incident story) people of these type of professions came from a better economical background, so they were more than likely preped better, and when they went off to the sucker college, they moret than likely didn’t work, so they could dedicate more time to studying and cutting loose when needed, which is a better formula for overall success.
as compared to white trash son. Was proabley never supported as a child, and if they did go off to college, they balanced employment with hitting the books. There Spring Break wasn’t fun & sun, rather working to pay bills.
you got student loans for tutition, but what about food on your plate?
so, its not that “doctors, lawyers, dentists” types are lazy and not hard workers. If I was to place my cards right, they just born into the right class of people, whom set them off on better feets.
I think the technical word for what I’m trying to describe is called “econoical mobility”.
Its like when someone tells me, that there is no military draft in this country. ha ha, i will laugh in your face. There is a draft.
just ask any black fellow that got shipped off to nam cause he didn’t have any jack and wanted out of a slumdog life.
I know, they were my bunker mates.
SAS
3b [64],
Yep, the first of many. When I first found this site, I stated that 450-500K pos’s in NNJ are staring down the barrel at sub 300K.
Our friend, Listen, rebuttal was; WHAW, another Wannabe. I really do miss this guy, another bull buried.
John,
Sellers aren’t cutting prices much, so buyers aren’t buying as much.
Pretty simple.
Sellers are easily “insulted” by low bids. They are probably going to keep their homes on the market through the summer if they price high. By the end of the summer, there should be price drops, at least for the people who have to sell their houses.
I’m looking at the high end, but probably won’t buy for the next couple of years, because change is very slow in real estate. I’m also looking for some of those option-ARM inspired forced sales to start happening in a couple of years, which will probably apply more to my target market range - about $1,000,000 now, hopefully about $800,000 in two years. The prospect of avoiding $100,000 to $200,000 in losses by waiting a couple of years to upgrade is appealing. Plus I’m already living in NJ’s “Best Affordable Suburb” right now. So I should lose about half as much $ value on my current home as my future home.
Anyway, that’s my personal contribution to slow NJ home sales.
2 points of fun news for today:
1) USA today did a piece on tent cities, specifically one that has spriung up in Florida. The new HOOVERVILLE’s!!!! Its interesting that the tent city phenomenon is now hitting the US MSM.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-05-04-new-homeless_N.htm
Clot [57],
I’m getting close. Just waiting for the perception/reality spread to widen.
Learn it.
“Economic mobility”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_mobility
SAS
JPMorgan Is Sole Commercial Bank That Won’t Need Funds, FBR Says
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By Rick Green
May 5 (Bloomberg) — JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the only lender among 12 commercial banks being stress-tested by the Treasury that probably won’t need more capital, Freidman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc. analyst Paul Miller wrote to clients today.
All the commercial banks may need capital under a “more adverse” scenario, Miller wrote. The Treasury is testing 19 of the biggest U.S. financial firms, including credit-card lender American Express Co. and insurer MetLife Inc., with results expected later this week.
And that is why JP Morgan is the only bank common stock I own.
SAS, that is a lot of bunk, most asians I went to college with lived in rent controled apt. and moms and dad were dirt poor but oh yeah I forgot white trash can’t get ahead cause only rich folk go to school.
Yesterday, I said that Arlen Specter would run in the Dem primary by promising a hail of pork in Pennsylvania. What’s his position?
“”Do I want to stay in the Senate, of course I do. Do you like your jobs? Sure you do,” Specter quipped to an audience of some 300 at the Hershey Medical Center.
But Specter also made clear he is now on a campaign to convince voters that his abrupt party switch isn’t just about him, it’s about what he does for them.
“My senior position on appropriations has enabled me to bring a lot of jobs and a lot of federal funding to this state,” Specter said.”
John (85):
I will buy some JPM in a few months but I agree with your thoughts.
#69:I don’t earn much at all. I do not want to earn more. With more money you earn from work comes more responsibility. Money isn’t important to me, neither is my job. I have all I want and need.
Fun news point # 2
Federal aid is top revenue for states
In a historic first, Uncle Sam has supplanted sales, property and income taxes as the biggest source of revenue for state and local governments.
The shift shows how deeply the recession is cutting. Federal stimulus money aimed at reviving the economy and a sharp drop in tax collections have altered, at least temporarily, the traditional balance of how states, cities, counties and schools pay for their operations.
The sales tax had been the No. 1 source of state and local revenue since the mid-1970s, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Before that, property taxes were the primary source. That changed in the first three months of 2009.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2009-05-04-fed-states-revenue_N.htm
The government has no choice on this point and will continue to expand on this theme. The only way the US government can maintain positive GDP is to replace consumer spending with government spending.
70% of US GDP is consumer spending and government spending is about another 20%. The catch is that much of of government spending is non productive as it simply redistributes revenue as opposed to actually generating new revenue while also consuming a portion of the revenue its redistributing.
Not all government spending is bad, but trying to plug GDP holes with it it is a cannibalistic act on the economy.
John (85)-
Better hope that 88 trillion in derivatives that Dimon’s got jammed in his closet don’t have any gasoline stored near them.
#86 John: I have to agree with you on that, at least from a personal stand point.
All the kids that I grew up, who were the children of immigrants (myself included), all went to college, and beyond, and yes we worked too. I was amazed at all the kids I knew whose families were in this country 3 or 4 generations, and never advanced further.
Nothing scientific on my part, just what I have seen many times over.
#80 BC Bob:Yep, the first of many. When I first found this site, I stated that 450-500K pos’s in NNJ are staring down the barrel at sub 300K.
Yes you did, and you were soundly ridiculed for it.
I have to believe that the neighbors around the house I referenced must be totally pissed off at that 299K asking price.
The house appears to be in pretty decent shape. And when it sells that becomes the new comp.
The class war seems to be picking up steam already based solely on todays posts.
There are a lot of contributing factors to the slowness of the price reductions in NJ homes, but IMHO, none is more prevalent than the issue of owners who are near or under water in their mortgages.
In the past few weeks, we have run into two sets of friends who are admittedly underwater on their mortgages. Neither can afford to move, nor do they feel the need to, since they don’t have the 20-30% to put down on the next home nor the check required for the bank to sell their current home. For them their home now represents paying less than the full principle amount on their credit card. They can easilly afford the $3,000/month minimum payment to stay in their home, but the wage freezes/cuts, tax increases and loss of benefits at work leave them without the ability to save enough to outpace the loss of equity in their homes as residential real estate values continue to drop 1% or more per month.
This example shows how important the unemployment numbers are. As Krugman (everyone’s favorite writer in Montclair) eluded to yesterday, if companies keep cutting wages, then workers will have less money to spend creating the need for more wage cuts. It is a viscous cycle that reared it’s face during the great depression as unemployment kicked up into the high 20 percent range.
The rest of the country is in foreclosureville as the cycle seems to be nearing an end in those regions. Real estate prices in the northeast appears to still be accelerating which means we are nowhere near the bottom of our cycle. As more and more people go underwater, it won’t be until the foreclosures start hitting the market in mass (as was the case in Michigan, Cali, Arizona and Nevada) that we see prices drop dramatically here. My gut tells me that it will be this fall and next Spring before we really feel it, but noone can be sure of it.
Sorry Gary :P
#48
“what is up with that “working class” nonsense? The doctors, lawyers, dentists who studied their butts off and now work 60 hours a week are not workers? but the HS drop out with BS town job are?”
totally agree. see further examples in Mr. O’s “Making Work Pay” plan, which rewards “work” by taking from some workers and giving to other workers.
3b: Pretty soon those River Edge Ranches will be worth as much as the property taxes!
From last thread- Thank you Still_Looking.
Frank (40),
it’s not just Manhattan. It’s Brooklyn, Bronx and SI. Trust me I’m short every month.
“All the commercial banks may need capital under a “more adverse” scenario, Miller wrote”
I like that, “more adverse”.
#78 kettle: Agreed, although I do not think one would have to wait another 2-3 years to get a good deal;to catch the bottom perhaps.
Skep(96):
“which rewards “work” by taking from some workers and giving to other workers.”
Or we can follow the Bush plan…”rewarding those who tried their best to destroy the country (and the rest of the world), as those who behaved morally take it up the back side.”
Income gap anyone?
#81
“I’m also looking for some of those option-ARM inspired forced sales to start happening in a couple of years”
one interesting nugget of info from sunday’s NYTimes RE section is that, whereas refinancings are up massively YoY nationwide (around +80%), in New York state, refinancings are only up 6% YoY. The explanation given is that many people are underwater and also are above conforming loan limits, so standards are much higher. So it would seem that the ARM trigger still exists in the NYC area
#97 tbw: That 299k is a huge drop for those ranches which were selling at the peak for over 400K.
As far as property taxes well the residents voted yes again fot the budget, so I have officially stepped down from my soap box on that topice. You cannot fix stupid.
Almost unnoticed (almost) China has been quietly making provisions to avoid the three-way-conversion from local currency to dollars to yuan when dealing with Central and South American trading partners. This should lift eyebrows in the United States, but so far it hasn’t. This might help:
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/05/chinese-wife-swap.php
#95 stu:Real estate prices in the northeast appears to still be accelerating
????
#94 silera:The class war seems to be picking up steam already based solely on todays posts.
Why??
just heard on bloomberg radio that Rick Santelli was told to go to anger management classes or lose his job at cnbc…muzzled…I think that is why Dylan R. left, he wasn’t going to be muzzled
3b,
Accelerating downward (rate of change).
Sorry ;)
Everyone is getting especially touchy about income and status. General feeling I’m getting. I know some is tongue in cheek but the tighter the economy is getting, the more abrasive some of the comments are regarding why people are in the position they are in.
Discontent is just rampant in all directions. It’s slightly exciting, slightly scary and long overdue.
#102
“…”rewarding those who tried their best to destroy the country (and the rest of the world), as those who behaved morally take it up the back side.”
that is part of the current plan as well, it seems.
Certainly John is not part of these class wars. He’s shown us time and time again that he’s got no class!
Have you ever even worked at Chase? Or you just believe what you read in the comic section? I validated their financials for two of their annual reports and it took me several hundred house just to check numbers that were already validated by Finance and checked by a second independent area and the audiors. I was checking numbers that were checked twice before final release. I can’t even pretend to know what they are doing their now. But when you are looking at a hypieron top side adjustments consolidating several legacy general ledger systems it gets a little hairy.
Clotpoll says:
May 5, 2009 at 9:53 am
John (85)-
Better hope that 88 trillion in derivatives that Dimon’s got jammed in his closet don’t have any gasoline stored near them.
John is in a class all his own.
I am firmly lower upper class. That is the actual term for my income group.
Skep,
To some extent, I agree unfortunately.
We all know that it is the banks who run the government. This is not conjecture. This is fact since the Wall Street lobby has been the largest campaign contributor for the past ten years.
John, how do you define lower upper class? What towns and salary range fit into that segment in your opinion?
“lower upper class” sounds a hell of a lot better than ‘upper middle class’.
Eh?
Wonder how many people consider themselves ‘upper lower class?’
#110 silera:I am not sure about that. I just think people are having an open honest discussion.
And we are all tired of crybabies whether they be on the left or the right.
There appears to be a real lack of personal responsibilty on the part of alot of Americians today.
John,
eagerly awaiting response to #117
one thing which I think might have contributed to stability in the northeast relative to the west is that the northeast is older demographically. this would seem to imply that northeastern homeowners have more equity which should result in fewer distress sales. however, the demographic angle will eventually turn against the northeast as baby boomers die, become infirm or unwilling to maintain their large empty homes.
the demographic issue is one reason it is difficult to make predictions about how well houses will hold their value over the longer term (10 yrs+)
he [105],
Short the dollar; Brazil, Canada, Australia, NZ, etc..
Of course; All Disclaimers.
Would not want that legendary lurker to get their feathers ruffled.
Throw out all your financial theory out the window! Welcome to the brave new world.
http://www.rattraders.com/Home
Our program is a professional service to the financial industry; rats are being trained to become superior traders in the financial markets. Using our own methodology in accordance with well-established animal training techniques, our subjects learn to recognize pattens in historical stock and futures data as well as generating trading signals. We provide solutions for tick based trading data and day based data. RATTRADERS rats can be trained exclusively for any financial market segment. They outperform most human traders and represent a much more economic solution for your trading desk.
3b,
“good deal” is relative and depends on your personal outlook. Mine for example, is one of the more extreme ones. I believe that we will return to approximately a 2.5 - 3X mortgage/income ratio.
if that happens, the average home price in NJ would need to drop by about 100K assuming median household incomes stay flat at about 65K. if median Household incomes drop, then the downward impact is even greater.
For a household with a 65K income (current NJ median household income), the 2.5 ratio means that they need about a 40K down payment on the house with a purchase price of about 205K and a mortgage of about 165K.
In NJ given the tax situation, such a purchase would mean that monthly PITI would consume approx 40% of net monthly income.
a 3 X ratio would represent a purchase price of about 250K, down payment of 50K and mortgage of 200K. this would consume about 45% of monthly net income
The core issue is once of debt expansion. If you remove the ability of people to use debt expansion to finance lifestyles, whether though tightening of credit availability or through people maxing out their debt servicing capacity, then you have changed the game and must shift back to a lifestyle that is sustainable without debt expansion.
better yet, what happens in 20 - 30 years when the current crowd on home owners hasnt saved jack and begins to enter old age and retirements phases of life? got friskies?
(note: all numbers are round figures, off the cuff)
I think it is impossible to have a lower uppper class town. To me Alpine NJ you have to be very rich to live in. But lets say you earn 350K a year and scrape together some coin and move in. Well in Alpine you would be lower upper class, still upper class since you live in Alpine but the rest of the Alpine folks would consider you their version of lower class. However, take that same 350K and move to ridgewood you cetainly would not be considered lower upper class you would be considered upper class.
I know some people pull themselves up by sheer will but most of the people I went to college with were their because they had been given advantages in life.
“got friskies?”
So what you are saying is that the cat food sector is a great buy and hold play?
So if I live in River Edge and consider myself middle class living in a middle class town, and then move to Bergenfield, I would become upper middle class?
their=there
Based on John’s findings, I may have to move to Camden. Shoot, I’d be the friggin’ king!
stu,
yes, perhaps Alpo as well.
in memory of Booya Bob,
FRISKIE EATING BAG HOLDERS!!!
kettle– when was the last time house prices in NJ were 2.5-3.0X income? My understanding is that 4.0 was a more typical long term multiple for the NYC area.
Jon #11: Look at Westwood. Nice downtown with actual shops you can buy things in (as opposed to Ridgewood, which is restaurants and crap no one needs) and restaurants. Taxes much lower than Ridgewood. Nice housing stock of older homes. Look in the streets off of Harrington (Roosevelt, Lexington, etc.) and off Mill St. on the west side of Kinderkamack Road. Decent if unspectacular schools. Washington Twp. is OK too for 1st time buyers but town government is one-party and corrupt as the day is long. Mayor of 28 years is not running but his cronies are.
Hey, on special occasions they can have Fancy Feast!
#126 Strawman
Here is your $350K+ in Ridgewood
http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2009/05/rattled_in_ridgewood.html
#125 Understood> i just believe that over the next year one will be able to get some good deals, with the undestanding that the bottom has not yet quite been reached,and the time frame for staying is at least 10 years.
However, for NJ, the 800lb gorilla remains property taxes. That concerns me more than anything else.
skep [133],
In 1994, I paid 1.6X. Based on median income and house price, at peak, the spread widened to approx 7X.
#133 skeptic: In the late 1990’s they were, at least in mnay areas of the NYC metro area.
Shelley @ 35, nice reviews there. Very valuable to anyone else looking in Chatham, which I am not, but I love to hear these kind of first hand accounts. Saves me time when the locales are places I am following.
grim, thanks for the MLS info I asked for the other day. I knew I had seen that one listed before. Another homeowner getting bloody trying to catch falling knives.
I paid 5.5x times income when I bought my house.
OK, so if prices drop from 7x to 4x, that is a 43% drop from peak. If they drop to 3x, that is a 57% drop from peak. I do not think that 2006 peak prices are a particularly relevant benchmark, but on the other hand it is possible that early 90s prices were below fundamental value.
#140 John: paid 5.5x times income when I bought my house.
You would; we would have expected nothing less.
#141 skeptic: I think early 90’s prices refelcted the fact that we were in a fairly severe/significant recession.
Of course today, bi says there is no recession. so you must factor that into your thought process.
“but on the other hand it is possible that early 90s prices were below fundamental value.”
skep,
For a hundred years RE prices, on average, “appreciated” at/near the inflation rate. Prices paid were the function of underlying income. The pair moved in tandem. That changed in 2003. Which is more indicative, 2003-2006 or the previous hundred years?
“Which is more indicative, 2003-2006 or the previous hundred years?”
BC– I will go with (B).
My point is not that 2003-2006 prices were sane, just that maybe sane prices existed in 2000 and expecting to go all the way back to 1994 levels (not saying that you necessarily think this way) may be a bit greedy on the downside.
I personally would be very happy if median prices in the NYC area dropped to 4.0x median income.
I just received an email from a realtor that there’s a lot of activity and interest due to the best lending rates in a generation coupled with a price bottom. The realtor said that because of proximity to NYC, prices here are not as affected as the rest of the country. She also said that “educated” buyers are starting to jump into the market in greater numbers. There you have it…
#146 gary: Proximity to NYC? Did she say why that is important today? Must be because of all the employment opportunities in the city.
Gary,
Ask her what she did for a living before becoming a realtard.
[110] silera.
“Discontent is just rampant in all directions. It’s slightly exciting, slightly scary and long overdue.”
Which is precisely why I stocked up on ammunition, and am exploring rural property, offshore banking, and getting a second nationality for my children.
[148] zieba
“realtard”
Love it!!!!
My plan is to loot abandoned stores and homes.
I might pretend to have some type of contagious zombie thing happening to make up for my lack of weapons and keep people away from us.
[111] skep,
True dat.
150
I wish I could take the credit but this was taken out of Clot’s book.
[151] silera,
You might not have to pretend. And thanks for the heads up on lack of weapons.
As an aside, I ask liberal antigun activists if they are willing to put signs on their lawns, and stickers on their cars to advertise the fact that they are unarmed. Amazingly, no takers yet.
Which is precisely why I stocked up on ammunition, and am exploring rural property, offshore banking, and getting a second nationality for my children.
Amen nom.
Every memeber of my family has a foreign passport in addition to US. I have a beach home in Montenegro and two bedroom in Hong Kong. As far as off shore banking is concerned I’m just sitting on Shiny. That should preserve wealth.
Next I would like to buy a small home with a few acres of farms land upstate but I’m having trouble saving these days as peopel are short with their rents.
“As an aside, I ask liberal antigun activists if they are willing to put signs on their lawns, and stickers on their cars to advertise the fact that they are unarmed. Amazingly, no takers yet.”
I have an easier plan. Get a bumper sticker that reads, “I’m carrying the swine flu!”
Discontent is just rampant in all directions. It’s slightly exciting, slightly scary and long overdue
Agreed.
I’ve been watching Der Baader-Meinhoff Komplex and brushing up on my radical chic.
Here is my take on the correlation between economic data / world events and the financial markets.
An undersea earthquake with a magnitude of 5.8 was felt off the coast of Kamakura Japan at midnight local time (11:00am EST). The quake triggered tsunami waves over 50 feet high impacting the southeastern city 30 miles south of Tokyo.
Initial estimates of 2,000 dead and two and half billion dollars worth of damage were revised downward to only 300 dead and 1 billion dollars of damage. US Markets rose on the news that the death and destruction was less than initially anticipated.
In other financial news, Toll Bros stock is up 10% on word that Bob Toll’s 4-year-old grandson has successfully built his first LEGO Bulldozer; an early sign that a housing recovery is near.
Make,
This one comes ready to play with its own airstrip:
http://www.silohome.com/
Bernanke just said he does not expect the unemployment rate to reach 10%.
So lets see we are currently at 8.5% (reported number), which only leaves 1.5% to reach the 10% mark.
We have April’s release this Friday, and we still have 8 months worth of job #s to go in this year.
And he does not see it hitting 10%?? 10% appears to be a given to me.
This is the same Bergabe who said there was no housing bubble, and we would avoid a recession.
nom [149],
Based on a small sampling, there is a bull market in dual-citizenship.
More Observations On The Supplemental Liquidity Provider Program
Posted by Tyler Durden at 10:00 AM
Previously Zero Hedge observed the rather curious integration of Goldman Sachs within the fabric of the NYSE’s program trading environment, which, by their own admission, has everything to do with Goldman being the (monopoly) actor in the NYSE’s Supplemental Liquidity Provider program. I highlighted that the program was set to expire on April 30.
Today, unsurprisingly, the NYSE posted a notice of a proposed rule change extending the SLP program another six months, until October 1, 2009 (this does not change my commitment to providing weekly NYSE program data). I appreciate our readers’ existing and future feedback in this matter.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/more-observations-on-supplemental.html#disqus_thread
My question is what financial benefit does GS get from this program? Trading fees?
“So lets see we are currently at 8.5%”
3b,
In their dreams.
You don’t really have to be liberal anti-gun to not own a gun. I’m just not into it. I’m sure it makes some feel safe. I am really just accustomed to being in a really urban area with police response.
It would be silly for me to assume that people that don’t live that way shouldn’t have guns. In the time it would take me to get a safely secured gun out if I thought I was getting “home invaded”, I could much quicker hide and call the police that would respond in less than 5 minutes.
Here’s a story, a burglar was running through backyards and ended up coming into our house. I was alone but for my 3 kids as my husband was in the hospital at the time. I heard all this commotion and yell at the boys to stop fighting, until I realize that it’s not them.
I’m sleepy and wrap my comforter around me and head downstairs and I hear just a brawl from the basement.
My groggy mind tries to figure out which weapons to use, and opt against a knife because I don’t want to bloody up my comforter. I can’t use the dining chair because I need at least one arm to hold up the comforter. I choose a plastic vacuum extension and then call out “Is everything OK down there?”
Someone- I didn’t know who at the time because I didn’t see anything, yells up- stay upstairs mamm. I assumed it was a cop, went upstairs and put on some clothes and then waited.
Turns out they had chased him from another home. He just had to knock in a glass pane to get in through our back door. To this day, whenever I vacuum my husband pleads with me not to hurt him.
Bernake Speaks! We are all saved all of the out of work boomers and kids just out of college can get jobs as air conditioner technicians!
Bernanke says if you are out of work go back to trade school and retool. Lincoln Technical Institute, anyone know what the tuition is? 25k large, working part time at Shop Rite will let you save that in no time at all!
//sarcasm off
Clotpoll says:
May 5, 2009 at 9:07 am
BC (16)- Sell in May, and go away. Could become sell in May, and go to hell.
clot: Are you sure that isn’t what your selling broker clients are hoping you will do?
i really smell recession in the air. some companies stop paying dividends. worst than that, some investment “companies” such as mike morgan’s even stop posting monthly return. (oh. i forgot he became a full-time goldman basher!)
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
mike’s finished,, cost his clients
plenty.
Has anyone heard how Paulson Advisors (John Paulson) is doing? Last I heard they scaled into 10% of the float of SKF @ 70 months ago.
Zieba,(159)
I love it. It’s probably out of my price range but great stuff nonetheless.
I wonder how much they want for it.
“SAS, that is a lot of bunk, most asians I went to college with lived in rent controled apt. and moms and dad were dirt poor but oh yeah I forgot white trash can’t get ahead cause only rich folk go to school”
yee John has alot to learn.
i can poke holes all days with this one.
but, I won’t
carry on
SAS
[159] zieba
Now that’s a Nompound!!!
[161] BC Bob,
I think you are right. So does the IRS. Last month they published guidance for expats.
http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=206402,00.html
Ordinarily, IRS doesn’t publish guidance unless there is a new need for it.
The quarterly report of expats should be released by IRS any day now. But that is the ultimate lagging indicator—by the time you see a significant uptick there, the country is already fcuked.
[156] stu
LOL. Good one.
But I know there are no pork products at your house.
John says:
May 5, 2009 at 10:22 am
“I am firmly lower upper class. That is the actual term for my income group.”
That’s all wrong. It doesn’t just go on income. Lower upper class would have less money than upper class but would follow the same habits. Lower upper class people would NEVER fix their own car but would insist on taking it to a shop, preferrably one they could brag about with a “genius of a mechanic in some hole in the wall place in a forgotten corner of Saddle River”.
You John have been know to fix your own car which would place you firmly in the category of upper lower class.
John admitted to fixing the 5 series?!
[164] silera,
whatever makes sense for you is what makes sense. Gun ownership isn’t for everyone, nor should it be. In fact, there are a lot of people I would not want to see armed.
I would only ask that you not impose your choice on those of us that don’t enjoy rapid police response.
NJMLS Bergen County SFH, Condo, Twnhs, Co-op Data for April
Year AvgList$ AvgSold$ Med$ #Sold #U/C
1999 $300,746 $287,708 $215,000 642 1015
2000 $311,129 $301,973 $240,000 569 925
2001 $343,320 $334,144 $275,000 532 861
2002 $396,395 $385,637 $320,000 849 1035
2003 $418,947 $405,592 $339,500 676 987
2004 $508,475 $493,837 $390,000 761 1070
2005 $563,935 $548,384 $445,300 811 1092
2006 $569,858 $538,106 $450,000 613 878
2007 $639,593 $592,123 $480,000 682 843
2008 $623,708 $565,691 $437,500 493 732
2009 $570,793 $503,793 $389,250 336 706
“I would only ask that you not impose your choice on those of us that don’t enjoy rapid police response”
calling 911 is a joke.
Sure did that lady that was hacked up by the nut job with the meat cleaver well.
SAS
Year AvgList$ AvgSold$ Med$ #Sold #U/C
2005 $563,935 $548,384 $445,300 811 1092
2009 $570,793 $503,793 $389,250 336 706
wow.
someone is missing the good ol’days.
SAS
Silera - I always found that owning a big scary dog was pretty good security.
Funny that those who are against the government imposing gun control, are totally for preventing gay couples from getting married.
#177 Rich: Thank you as always.
Hey NJ, Obama hates you.
From the Record:
Tax plan targets drug makers
New Jersey’s drug industry is among the targets of President Obama’s plan, announced Monday, to close tax loopholes that allow U.S. companies to defer paying U.S. taxes on overseas profits, and citizens to abuse offshore tax shelters.
Some of the biggest drug companies, among them Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co. Inc, Pfizer Inc., Wyeth and Schering-Plough Corp., signed a letter in March opposing the proposal, which Obama has discussed in general terms since last year’s election campaign.
Rich [177],
Thanks, as usual. 336 sold in 4/09? Did someone shut out the lights in BC? Lower sales beget lower prices. Lower prices beget lower prices. The carnage, price, is coming.
Rich!
#181: Likewise, those who oppose the death penalty are pro-choice.
Go figure…
#177 Richard: Looks like we are back to around 2004 prices.
Victoria- the circular non sensical reasoning behind all these so called issues never makes sense to me. I can only decide what works for me.
Lis- I’d probably get a big dog that was scared and end up protecting him. =) I’m upgrading to a dyson eventually so that criminals know I mean business.
I refuse to fix anything on my 5 series as it is under warranty. Heck if I run out of windshield wiper fluid I wait for dealer. Usually like my service during meal time as the dealer serves a nice breakfast and lunch menu. However, even in my white trash town the neighbors thought I was bringing down property values by fixing my own car and mowing my own lawn. Heck the unemployed people have maids and lawn service in my town.
“Funny that those who are against the government imposing gun control, are totally for preventing gay couples from getting married”
hugh?
rush to judgement.
as for me, gun owner.
and I really think gay couples should get married if they want. anything less is discrimination.
SAS
“#177 Richard:”
3b,
He’s Rich, not Richard. That said, I do miss the chap.
I am pro gay dueling with guns. That would be cool.
Victorian says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:08 pm
Funny that those who are against the government imposing gun control, are totally for preventing gay couples from getting married.
my neighbors think I have a screw loose for changing my own oil, planting my own grass, and fixing my own roof. Hell, it is how I grew up.
“Heck the unemployed people have maids and lawn service in my town.”
J,
That’s called bartering.
Gotta love how Bernake tossed the hot potato back at Hank Paulson on the BAC/Merrill merger.
“my neighbors think I have a screw loose”
if your on this blog long enough.
you will have a screw loose.
Its sometimes becomes an addiction.
well, at least with this addiction, the govt can’t make money off of it.. or can they??
SAS
“Microsoft cuts thousands more jobs”
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2009/05/04/daily14.html
“Monmouth County lays off 100″
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/05/monmouth_county_lays_off_100.html
-Monmouth County laid off about 100 workers Monday, including clerical staff, public works, law enforcement and others, according to a report in The Asbury Park Press.
opps, that was already posted.
sorry.
I sometimes read the comments, and by the time I read the last one, I forgot what the first one says.
SAS
#177
Thanks for the numbers. So basically, we are now at 2004 prices, which in my opinion means we are about 1/3 of the way to the bottom.
skeptic 154
in 2000 the median nj home price was 2.5X median household income.
skep-tic says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:28 pm
#177 Thanks for the numbers. So basically, we are now at 2004 prices, which in my opinion means we are about 1/3 of the way to the bottom.
skep: I would argue no. The mix is messed up. Just as the 2007 number is misleading as the bottom swath was removed, the 2009 number is misleading because it is impacted less by transactions at the top, and more by foreclosures at the middle and bottom……pure guess on my part….anyone able to refute me with facts?
[181] vic,
Funny how liberals have this single, all purpose image of conservatives. It fits well with their worldview and causes no cognitive dissonance.
Vic,
Since you seem to think you know me so well, how about telling me what else I am for/against?
[188] silera
“I’m upgrading to a dyson eventually so that criminals know I mean business.”
New Jersey would make you get a permit for that.
#191 BC Bob: I am sorry. How could I make that msitake.
Yes, Richard, the oracle of Brigadoon.
#178 Rich: Let me restate that. Thanks Rich as always.
“Funny how liberals have this single, all purpose image of conservatives. It fits well with their worldview and causes no cognitive dissonance.”
Nom -
Seems like you claim to know me as well.
FWIW, I was not commenting on an individual’s position on issues, but the official “party” line. For a party which argues for an individual’s rights, being anti-gay marriage seems curiously out of place.
As far as I can tell from your posts, you are against paying taxes to liberal governments and for shooting liberal “punks” :)
Vic 182,
You are falling into the correlation equals causation trap.
a majority of gun owners may be politically conservative, but you still cannot reverse that and accurately say that a gun owner is politically conservative.
the connection between gun ownership and position on gay marriage is ever more tenuous at best
RE: 189
Not to stray too far from the OT, whatever that may be, but I think BMW’s no maintenance lease plans are a good thing. I like the idea of free pads, wipers, fluid, bulbs, etc….
I am not familiar with the details but I think it includes parts and labor.
Any experts on South Orange? Any commentary on S.O. as a place to rent/own a home?
My bare bones take on Pros Cons:
Cons: Borders some tough towns, taxes look high even by NJ standards
Pros: Fledgling downtown, fast ride to NYC via midtown Direct, diverse community
Looking for info on community, schools, minor and major annoyances, etc.
hunter (108)-
Was Santelli notified of this by Neutron Jack?
“…just heard on bloomberg radio that Rick Santelli was told to go to anger management classes or lose his job at cnbc…muzzled…I think that is why Dylan R. left, he wasn’t going to be muzzled…”
The gang-r@pe of America continues.
#204 Nom
“Funny how liberals have this single, all purpose image of conservatives.”
They will quite happily deny anyone any right (eg same s1x marriage, women’s right to choosen etc) but will squeal when anyone tries to do the same to them (eg Gun Control)
Vic,
For a party which argues for an individual’s rights, being anti-gay marriage seems curiously out of place.
both parties are 2 heads of the same beast, the 2 parties positions are what ever they need to be to provide a counter to one another and hence effectively lock out 3rd party competition.
Neither party has actually represented the legacy positions that they still claim, for at least 50 years
I just don’t get all this stuff about class, which probably proves that I don’t have any. Can’t we all just live the lifestyles we choose to and not worry about what other people think? I mean, we all end up dead anyway and I’ve never yet seen an armored car following a hearse, so what difference does it make? There’s a lot I don’t understand.
John says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:15 pm
“However, even in my white trash town the neighbors thought I was bringing down property values by fixing my own car and mowing my own lawn. ”
See - upper lower class. Upper money, lower habits.
Vic (124)-
May I place an order for two rats and a Monte Carlo sim?
Lower class NJ = bathtub Madonnas
Upper class NJ = lawn jockeys
Traitor nom deplume says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:38 pm
“Funny how liberals have this single, all purpose image of conservatives. It fits well with their worldview and causes no cognitive dissonance.”
Way to counter that stereotype with……another stereotype!
Outofstater says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:52 pm
“Can’t we all just live the lifestyles we choose to and not worry about what other people think?”
Absolutely not!
:-)
gary (147)-
“Educated”? Har!
Don’t need no damn education to know how to buy low and sell high. Anybody who thinks today’s RE prices are low is an ignorant fool and deserves to be separated from his money forthwith.
BC (164)-
So that puts it at about 17% or so…right on the edge of Tom Joad time.
Ket (215) -
Agree 100%. Anytime the 2 voting factions agree, for e.g. TARP, that’s when we see the true colors.
“I’m upgrading to a dyson eventually so that criminals know I mean business.”
How’s a vacuum cleaner going to demonstrate you mean business?
“Drop your weapon or I’ll be forced to get the upholstery cleaning attachment!”
:P
Clot,
In my opinion as a janitor, i think that we are too caught up in a growth, “always look on the bright side” cultural mentality.
I saw a survey don on 25-35 year olds a month or so ago that asked their opinion of the survey. The respondent was asked why they came to their decision. A large % said that things were going to start getting better because it was to pessimistic to think that they could get worse.
Grossly paraphrased, but you get the idea.
#215 kettle:both parties are 2 heads of the same beast, the 2 parties positions are what ever they need to be to provide a counter to one another and hence effectively lock out 3rd party competition.
Exactly!. I always shake my head when people say we need 2 strong viable parties, we need 3, but it will never happen. The powers that be will prevent it.
As George Carlin used to say ( and I did not believe it back than, but I do now). America was bought and paid for along time ago by the special interests on both sides.
I have finally accepted that, and it is a relief. Forget about change and all the rest, simply take care of only the things that you can. The rest is out of our control.
3b,
“I have finally accepted that, and it is a relief. Forget about change and all the rest, simply take care of only the things that you can. The rest is out of our control.”
I am so with you brother.
From Lehman CDO salesperson to stripper.
Safe for work…..
http://news.hereisthecity.com/news/business_news/9006.cntns
[220] lisoosh
Precisely!
Actually, as an inbred, racist, sexist, anything else-ist, knuckle-dragging, troglodyte conservavtive, who can’t count to 21 unless buck naked, it’s what passes for a witty riposte from me.
(BTW, what does riposte mean? Clearly I am too stoopid to know. And troglodyte? what’s up with that? some kind of dinosaur or something?)
Anyway, I am sleep-deprived and cranky in my old age, and I should have just said no to Vic’s bait, so flame once and let’s stop wasting Grim’s bandwidth.
Stu (225)-
It may be capable of some type of Bobbitt-like operation.
“WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday she is making the issue of new rules restricting short-selling a priority as the agency hears from an array of interests about ways to limit trades that bet against a stock.”
“Investors and lawmakers have been clamoring for the SEC to put new brakes on trading moves they say worsened the market’s downturn.”
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g2HUQDmLR5hGvJB0P3fdpH0_1fIwD9804MOO0
[228] stu
As my generation would have said “how I stopped worrying and learned to love the Bomb.”
Clot,
the kettle unemployment report:
Seasonally adjusted
U6 = 15.6
U3 = 8.5
Non Seasonally adjusted
U6 = 16.2
U3 = 9.0
Recent seasonal adjustment may suggest that BLS is trying to adjust these numbers down a bit, as the seasonal adjustments they are using are beginning to exceed normal historical adjustments
#234 kettle: Can you e-mail those #’s to the bearded one.
Don’t need no damn education to know how to buy low and sell high. Anybody who thinks today’s RE prices are low is an ignorant fool and deserves to be separated from his money forthwith.
Clot,
Everyone is telling average Joe to buy. Bernanke said today that we are at the bottom. NAR is spitting the same thing. Omama is giving them $8,000 subsidy. Mortgage rates are so low its crazy. If you have 100K in savings and your Job seems steady then it’s really hard to fight your wife off and tell her to keep waiting for first home.
If you get these FHA loans and put 3% DP, with the inflation around the corner it’s hard not to think of buying even though the prices may go down another 10%.
We will see a huge uptick in sales and price stabilization this season followed by a reaaallly cold winter.
make (236)-
Naah. The smart money is nowhere near RE. Trust me.
[208] vic,
“As far as I can tell from your posts, you are against paying taxes to liberal governments and for shooting liberal “punks” :)”
Hey, its a living.
[214] PGC
Took vic’s bait. Doesn’t mean I have to take yours. Besides, it’s not an original snark, and I don’t do leftovers.
Both political parties want to take our rights away. To think we are truly “free” is a joke.
3b, stu
in the last election(05) i saw some game theory analysis that suggested the set up of the US political system made the odds of a third party ever surviving very small
[211] seneca
Some folks I know like the downtown. But no one suggested buying there, even when we were househunting.
make money,
I know i sound like a broken record, but we still have a way yto go before deflation slows down. I am still targeting 2011-2012.
I expect a 3-5 year period of deflation. Assuming deflation really kicked in in 2007 but didnt ramp up until 08, 2011-2012 is my target for a transition period
Scotland Road on the way into is absolutely beautiful. One of the nicest neighborhoods I’ve seen in Jersey. I couldn’t drive slowly enough to look at the houses on either side.
Outside of that neighborhood and downtown, I felt that it looked like the Dominican Republic and not in a nice beachy way. In a 3rd world and hungry way.
It is a good deal, they do everything, even wiphers, oil, fluids, brakes, battery tires, they even wash the car and give you a loaner or serve you food while you wait. 4 years you get. Recently my 3.5 year old battery went and they put a brand new on in for free. GM or Ford would have said a four year batter that is 3.5 year old they would have paid for 1/8 of the new battery. They jack up the price at the begining but the second owner still gets it. What suprised me is my BMW I got a auction I get treated like a king. BMW has a mandate they want to turn used car purchasers into new car purchasers. My Mercury Sable I bought at auction under warranty I remember taking it to dealer for a free warranty repair and when the guy pulled my VIN and saw Newburgh Auto Auction he gave me a dirty look and said wait your turn. I give it to BMW for treating me like a KING.
zieba says:
May 5, 2009 at 12:49 pm
RE: 189
Not to stray too far from the OT, whatever that may be, but I think BMW’s no maintenance lease plans are a good thing. I like the idea of free pads, wipers, fluid, bulbs, etc….
I am not familiar with the details but I think it includes parts and labor.
“There’s a lot I don’t understand”
yes, don’t we all.
don’t worry, that is why we have john on the blogosphere.
SAS
I know i sound like a broken record, but we still have a way yto go before deflation slows down. I am still targeting 2011-2012
Kettle,
You’re the man and called this deflation spot on. How did you conclude on 2011-12? jobs? You had originally predicted 18-24 months of deflation right?
Patterson & Bloomberg do not support Gay Marriage because they are Liberal, they support it because they failed Biology 101. They believe Humans are Single Cell and procreate through Cell Division, which is how the species is perpetuated. Conservatives who failed Biology 101 feel the same way.
‘cash-for-clunkers’ will likely pass.
I’m a huge supporter of gay marriage. It keeps our property taxes down!
#240 kettle:the odds of a third party ever surviving very small
Agreed, it will never happen. I am at peace with that. Let the 2 headed beast do what it will.
The inquisition or “Pecora” bill should be passed tomorrow in the House, and will be up and running for the next 18 months.
http://www.opencongress.org/articles/view/973-Congress-Looks-to-Investigate-Wall-Street-
I give it to BMW for treating me like a KING.
If you really want to feel like a rock star. Buy it at the dealership and over pay a little. Ray’s staff will literally wash your feet if you tip them silly when you buy and everytime you walk in there. I go there once every couple of months just to boost my self e stem.
to me it’a better then a five star message parlor and spa.
249.Stu says:
May 5, 2009 at 1:36 pm
I’m a huge supporter of gay marriage. It keeps our property taxes down!
Not really, most Gay’s adopt.
#238 Nom
Its not a bait. You have a valid point that liberals will have a singular view of conservatives. It also goes the other way. The comment was my own view of conservatives.
I do not class myself as liberal and here is an attempt to be balanced. My singular view of Liberals is that they seem to have a problem dealing with the disconnects that arise, when their idea of their Utopian society doesn’t fit with the reality of real world.
Confused,
You just had to go and and ruin my party! (I knew about the adoption thing)
I am pro as long as they tell me which one is the mommy so I know who to ask to bring in the cupcakes to school. However, that whole who is the bicycle and who is the bicycle rack thing to me is quite confusing.
3,5,6,7 or M?
make money says:
May 5, 2009 at 1:44 pm
I give it to BMW for treating me like a KING.
If you really want to feel like a rock star. Buy it at the dealership and over pay a little. Ray’s staff will literally wash your feet if you tip them silly when you buy and everytime you walk in there. I go there once every couple of months just to boost my self e stem.
to me it’a better then a five star message parlor and spa.
Bernanke’s calling a bottom
Guess he supports that type of marriage too, but then again he does have one of those “ball scrubber” goatees.
John,
That reminds me of a racist joke that my mother used to tell. It went something like this…
Why are the dead in China buried with their asses sticking up out of the ground?
I never knew they buried the dead, I thought they just ended up as lunch at Yips.
Stu says:
May 5, 2009 at 1:50 pm
John,
That reminds me of a racist joke that my mother used to tell. It went something like this…
Why are the dead in China buried with their asses sticking up out of the ground?
john,
recess is over.
SAS
“Why are the dead in China buried with their asses sticking up out of the ground?”
Stu,
So they can be like Bobby Knight?
Re 232,
I could be mistaken but European and Japanese stock markets have uptick rules and their markets sank as bad as ours did in March. What do these people think they are going to accomplish?
#203
“the 2009 number is misleading because it is impacted less by transactions at the top, and more by foreclosures at the middle and bottom”
that actually makes sense based on what I am seeing. very few transactions at higher end due to lack of meaningful price cuts
Make,
I originally targeted 2 years. I have since bumped up to 3-5 years. I moved up to 3-5 years on 2 main points.
1) I initially underestimated how far the government would go to float dead banks and prevent deleveraging in general. I was essentially over optimistic that the political leaders might actually look further ahead then the next election.
2) I underestimated the breadth and depth of the overall leverage. not used to playing with financial numbers that big. last time i worked with those numbers on a regular basis i was playing with Avogadro’s number.
my guess is that a series of bond dislocations may be what causes the transition from deflation to inflation. I have been looking at the financial situation as a PID stability control problem. Assume that you have an exothermic reactor that has become unstable, you have a PID control system trying to maintain steady state. The PID system will lose control and you will see an accelerating deterioration of the situation until the reactor goes kaboom.
in simpler terms, i look at it as an unstable thermodynamic system and see where that leads me.
My origianl 2 year guess was based on how long it might take to clean a significant portion of the debt is the system was not artificially propped up. You may be able to delay mr market, but he always wins in the end.
im on the verge of getting into SRS. many here had projected the dow going to around 9000-10000 … and i think once it gets to 8800, im going to get in on SRS.
eager to let some $ ride during the dog days of summer.
and as soon as Apple buys twitter, I’m dumping apple.
* i barely know what Im doing, so dont listen to me. i just got lucky one on SKF based on what a bunch of folks here said.
[254] pgc
“My singular view of Liberals is that they seem to have a problem dealing with the disconnects that arise, when their idea of their Utopian society doesn’t fit with the reality of real world.”
Wasn’t that what I said?
BTW, you all take me a lot more seriously than I take me.
Now time for a true story. Bruce Bent (Reserve Fund) invented the money market fund. At SJU in his MBA program his thesis was basically the invention of the money market fund. Prof Mockler, who was the toughest professor I ever had gave him a lousy grade, Bruce Bent went on to become a multi millionair and even donate a huge building to SJU called Bent Hall. Even after 25 years Mockler would say I am right he is wrong he did not deserve an A. Prof Mockler was right and it took 30 years but Bruce Bent to go down in flames. At SJU we had to do the damm thesis in hardcopy and an oral version and funny as crap was the first time we did it suits in all, first guy did not shine shoes and Mockler just said he would not tolerate anyone entering a boardroom with unshined shoes and said next, kid went to sit down and Mockler said get out. I don’t want those unshined shoes in my class. Next this pretty girl gets up dressed to the nines and does her thing, she ends and Mockler does not say anything for five minutes and finally goes “I feel sorry for your Mother for having such a stupid Daughter. The next class he collected papers at the end of class as I was headed out the door he yells for me to come back, he tells me he spotted a typo, I said I am sorry, then the SOB tells me he likes perfection and it better be perfect or I will get a zero and it is due today. I told him the paper in on my home PC, the SOB tells here is my address in the city you got till Midnight to go home fix it reprint it and get it to his place, I am litterally running lights and get to his place around 11:55pm. The damm doorman is laughing as he said Mockler does that all the time, he even had the doorman log in the time. That SOB Mockler was a good man.
SEC charges Reserve Fund operators with fraud
By Wallace Witkowski
Last update: 2:05 p.m. EDT May 5, 2009
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday it charged operators of the Reserve Primary Fund with failure to notify investors about the fund’s vulnerability to Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy. In September, shares of the money-market fund, which held about $785 million in Lehman-issued securities, “broke the buck,” or fell below $1 a share. The SEC hopes the action will speed up distribution of the fund’s remaining assets to investors.
Following The Venus Fly Trap Shoots
Posted by Tyler Durden at 12:11 PM
Some more pesticides for the second derivative brigade. Data released from Cass Information Systems indices for tracking heavy freight shipments and expenditures, indicates that after a bit of a recovery recently, both metrics have reverted to their prior southern direction.
Presumably soon the CNBC crowd may be forced to start looking at improvements in 3rd derivatives.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/following-venus-fly-trap-shoots.html
“Why are the dead in China buried with their asses sticking up out of the ground?”
So when relatives come to visit the dead, they have a place to park their bicycles.
Traitor @ 241 and Silera @243, thanks. Buying seems out of the question again this week so if I do go, its to rent. I am just wondering if South Orange downtown on the weekends and at night looks more like Cranford’s downtown, or Rahway’s. Seems nice enough during the weekdays but…….
OT news:
LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) — Dom DeLuise, who spiced up such movies as “Blazing Saddles,” “Silent Movie” and “The Cannonball Run” with his manic delivery and roly-poly persona, has died, his son’s publicist told CNN.
South Orange is a bit like Montclair only with higher property taxes and few decent restaurants. School system is similar, train system is similar and demographic is similar. Anecdotally, it seemed that home prices went even crazier in SO than in Montclair in 2005 and 2006.
house around the corner from us just sold. been on the market since january-ish. that’s like an eternity in this neighborhood (said other people in the neighborhood).
dying to know what it went for. interior was ugly because of their wallpaper. had a nice wine cellar, though.
i see they have two huge dogs so i assume new carpets might be needed (unless you’re a dog person).
i asked our agent and she’s digging. said that it was a deal that was done weeks ago but with a contingency - that they buyers sell their house. and they just did.
ps - this is in Bucks Cty
in my limited bergen county experience (5 years), i’d say the most attitude and entitlement came from denizens of glen rock.
saw some of that in ridgewood, but to a much lesser extent.
oakland has a lot of folks who think their sh*t doesn’t stink.
then again, some people say the same stuff about the town i currently live in in bucks county.
AHOY MATES …Bernanke: U.S. Recovery Ahead, Housing Near Bottom Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year. But in testimony to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke warned that even after a recovery gets under way, economic activity is likely to be subpar. That means businesses will stay cautious about hiring, driving up the nation’s unemployment rate and causing “further sizable job losses” in the coming months, he said.
John - you should tell that story at the up and coming new Percora commission hearings. I bet you even get to meet Barney Frank and ask him the bicycle question.
#267 Nom
“Wasn’t that what I said?”
Yes, but you can’t stand in that ideological glass house and throw stones at the Liberals.
yikes: as a kid, I worked in Oradell. I will never forget this: Customer comes into the store and asks “Oh, do you live in town?” I reply “Well, yeah..River Edge” the customer says “oh” and then turns a cold shoulder. True story!
Yikes,
Where does Bucks Co. money come from?
Is it part Philly finance, if there is such a thing? It’s a great place to visit and I often make the drive during the summer months. Occasionally, I’ll see a few Ferrari’s a Rolls Royce, or four and some really nice spreads.
3,5,6,7 or M?
John,
I only drive a car if it begins with M or ends with AMG. Anything else is like owning a cousin of the horse that won the Kentucky derby.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIlRpgZdQHk
Watch Ron Paul get Bernanke to say that he believes that the Fed should be audited.
Loyd is gonna be mad I guess Ben is in touble.
You drive a car? Why, that isn’t very prestigious at all! I will only be Chauffeured in the Bentliest of Bentley’s. My driver, Gibbs, knows just how to drive into the apex of the curve so that my Gray Poupon doesn’t spill on my taylored whale skin winter jacket. In fact, next week we are going on safari to look for some ivory. My piano needs new keys.
So how’s your Mitsubishi Lancer holding up?
question for the crowd,
what % of net income is a “safe” average amount to spend on housing. i believe this has come up before and 30% seemed to be the consensus.
re: #282 - make money
Ron Paul has 124 cosponsors on his bill H.R.1207 to audit the Fed, and if it makes it out of Barney Frank’s committee it has a decent chance of becoming law.
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d111:14:./temp/~bdC6m9::|/bss/111search.html|
Speaking of cars, can anyone tell me why people drive Kia’s? I just don’t get it.
I drive a dodge. I wonder if I will qualify for O’s cash for clunkers cheese.
TBW,
I have a six family in Greepoint that pays my leases. My wife calls it the Ray Catena house. When I drive my cars I hope to avoid anyone I know. I have recently bought a used Cherokee and use that to drive around when I go visit my properties(Work).
Real Philly money goes to the Main Line (think Short Hills, Bergen County) and Chester County (think Tewksbury, Somerset Hills). Real Bucks wealth is concentrated in only a few towns along rt 202 and the river (Solebury and Upper Makefield probably the richest), mostly because of convenience to NYC and NJ. some money from Philly of course as Rt 95 is there but also a long history of Manhattanites with weekend homes. You can tell Bucks isn’t that high end as there’s a real lack of upscale shops and great restaurants there.
can anyone tell me why people drive Kia’s
They are cheap…
New Jersey Can’t Afford Government, Booker Says
Cory Booker, 40, said rising expenses for health care, pensions and salaries are impinging on government finances. Operations need to be streamlined in a state with 566 towns and cities, 617 school districts and 21 counties, Booker said during a meeting with Bloomberg editors and on Bloomberg Radio today.
“New Jersey will go bankrupt in 10 to 20 years because we cannot afford our employees as a state,” Booker said. “I’m talking about every worker from the cities and counties to the state government. Eventually, we’re going to price ourselves out as a government or tax ourselves to death.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aVC6v8q8KUD0
“There should be a tax revolt in the state of New Jersey,” Booker said. “We’re the most inefficient state in the country. We have more government per person than we need. You would never manage a business the way we manage our government - - we have overlapping provision of services and in my opinion, it’s insane.”
from the same interview above.
This guy Book i sjumping on the Tea party grass roots movement.
Booker, I cannot believe it???????? He really hasn’t taken an interest in Newark, does he have his eyes on Corzine’s seat?
tbw -Gray Poupon? Now that’s not prestigious enough for Bergen. How about this:
“Perhaps the original mustard, violette mustard is made from grape must that is blended with crushed mustard seed. Not your typical mustard as it is a deep purple color and it has a fruity flavor with a lightly tannic finish.”
ruggles,
What is hel is this? I stumbled upon it browsing around solebury..
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Solebury,+pa&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=30.048013,83.847656&ie=UTF8&ll=40.376212,-75.02748&spn=0.005141,0.010235&t=h&z=17
Rices market - great place to buy tube socks
“In summary you understand what is happening here. The BIG bottom line message is that the Fed is creating the impression or perception of healing in pockets of the US credit market. For those not willing to or literally unable to understand what is happening behind the scenes, many a headline credit market perception is actually a misperception when a light is actually shown on the facts of these various market segments. Where the Fed is involved, the perception of healing or stabilization can be created. Where they are not involved (corporate markets), continued stress is still plainly visible. In the endgame, credit market investors are smart. They are less emotional than equity investors. We believe many know exactly what is going on and the true character of supposed healing that has taken place with the Fed sticking all of its fingers in the US credit market dike that has cracked and has certainly not been repaired.
Alternatively, equity investors caught up in the momentum of the moment need to keep a sharp eye on exactly what is happening in the credit markets. After all, the Fed/Treasury/Administration is compelling us to do so as they constantly focus on “unfreezing” the credit markets. Absent the influence of the Fed, these markets are not yet recovering. Absent the Fed, the credit market patient is unable to get out of bed and walk on his/her own. Let’s just hope equity investors have it dead right in their happy anticipation in recent months. For if what they are discounting is correct, especially in financial sector issues, the US credit markets should very soon be involved in a Lazarus event – an immediate rising from the dead. But for now, it’s really the Fed holding up the credit markets, from which they cannot have a current exit plan by any stretch of the imagination. The credit markets ARE the issue for the current cycle. We need to keep this firmly in mind.”
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/of-fingers-and-dikes.html
#287 tbw: Great safety ratings.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE SEA OF WEALTH?
“Some sectors of the economy seem to have clearly gotten well overbuilt,” says Orley Ashenfelter, an economist at Princeton University in New Jersey and former Labor Department official. “Financial services is an extreme example.” In the publishing industry, which is suffering from falling advertising and a migration of readers to the Internet, employment is down almost 8 percent since the recession began in December 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOhkusQ9LifQ&refer=exclusive
#287 Just can’t drive a Kia. To me, KIA means only one thing - Killed In Action. No thanks.
Clot, re… low balling:
Seems like that place I mentioned yesterday is under attorney review at a price “substantially higher” than the list price.
S
HEHEHE says:
May 5, 2009 at 10:14 am
Almost unnoticed (almost) China has been quietly making provisions to avoid the three-way-conversion from local currency to dollars to yuan when dealing with Central and South American trading partners. This should lift eyebrows in the United States, but so far it hasn’t. This might help:
http://dealbreaker.com/2009/05/chinese-wife-swap.php
Dammit! I want to see these damn commies brought to their damn knees–this needs to happen NOW, not sometime in the future. To hell with the damn Taliban, let them take over Pakistan. There’s no money over there anyway. These damn commies are the biggest threat we face and it’s time to get tough with them. What?? They’re our bankers?? Tell you what, here’s a quarter for a pay phone so you can call someone who cares about that because I don’t give a tinker’s damn about their money; they’ll get it back when we’re done with it and not one minute before ….and they’d better not be rushing us on it.
[292-3]
No F-ing way! A democratic city mayor said that???????? IN New Jersey????
Wonder who gets to take Booker to the woodshed?
#303 - re - To hell with the damn Taliban, let them take over Pakistan
You do know they have nukes, right?
Hard to be rock-ribbed when suffering radiation poisoning.
“here’s a quarter for a pay phone so you can call someone who cares about that because I don’t give a tinker’s damn about their money;”
50.5,
Unless tarp is reaching out to you, it’s probably wise to keep the quarter.
[292]
I went back and read the Booker interview. It is so unbelievably uncharacteristic for a NJ pol in his position to think that way. He sounds like he is running for office in Sussex, not Newark (and maybe he is).
Still, I am waiting for someone at Bloomberg to put up a banner that says “April Fools.”
[305] tosh
Rock ribs shouldn’t be affected by radioactivity.
Moreover, were I him, I would not be concerned about any impairment in cognitive ability.
This could have some unpleasant consequences for the US. Continued higher cost of unemployment insurance and other social safety nets, a further tightening of credit in the long term, and another padlock added to the debt slaves chains.
Volcker’s Great Recession Redefines Full Employment as Jobs Vanish Forever
Post-recession America may be saddled with high unemployment even after good times finally return. Hundreds of thousands of jobs have vanished forever in industries such as auto manufacturing and financial services. Millions of people who were fired or laid off will find it harder to get hired again and for years may have to accept lower earnings than they enjoyed before the slump. This restructuring — in what former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker calls “the Great Recession” — is causing some economists to reconsider what might be the “natural” rate of unemployment: a level that neither accelerates nor decelerates inflation. This state of equilibrium is often described as “full” employment. Fallout from the recession implies a “markedly higher” natural rate of unemployment, says Edmund Phelps, a professor at Columbia University in New York and winner of the 2006 Nobel Prize in economics. “It was 5.5 percent; maybe it will be 6.5 percent, maybe 7 percent.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aOhkusQ9LifQ&refer=exclusive
[278] PGC,
Sorry, I follow liberal rules for debate (meaning that there are few, and your view is the right one).
That said, if you haven’t noticed, there isn’t much glass left in the frames over at the Elephant House these days. So, I am lobbing the igneous with impunity.
33 Twin Oak Rd Short Hills.
Sold below March 2000 sale from 9 years ago. Nine years of bubble “equity” evaporated. Spent 377 Days On Market, and sold $1,095,000 (46%) below asking.
Last three sales of this property:
* Mar 23, 2000: $1,308,000
* May 27, 2005: $1,625,000
* Apr 01, 2009: $1,300,000
Below is the listing history for this property:
Jan 23, 2008 - $2,395,000 - MLS # 2479522
Feb 21, 2008 - $2,295,000
Mar 11, 2008 - $2,195,000
Mar 20, 2008 - $1,999,000
Apr 03, 2008 - $1,995,000
Apr 12, 2008 - $1,994,000
Apr 13, 2008 - $1,899,000
Apr 14, 2008 - WITHDRAWN
Apr 15, 2008 - $1,899,000 - MLS # 2507979
May 01, 2008 - $1,878,888
Jul 09, 2008 - $1,850,000
Aug 06, 2008 - WITHDRAWN
Oct 02, 2008 - $1,800,000 - MLS # 2585669
Jan 02, 2009 - WITHDRAWN
Jan 06, 2009 - $1,695,000 - MLS # 2625008
Jan 22, 2009 - $1,595,000
Mar 11, 2009 - $1,495,000
Mar 16, 2009 - Attorney Review
Mar 27, 2009 - Under Contract
Apr 01, 2009 - Closed at $1,300,000
[309] kettle,
What would concern me is that the corresponding increase in U6 will be proportional, so that a 25% rise in U3 may take you from 5 to 6.25, but a 25% rise in U6 takes you from 15 to 20%
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2f842dec-38d8-11de-8cfe-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss&nclick_check=1
RE 101
Be nice to the people that OWN you. It’s not wise to bite the hand that feeds you.
[300] kettle,
Here is a slightly contrary view:
“May 5 (Bloomberg) — Wall Street, after getting billions of taxpayer dollars, will emerge from the financial crisis looking much the same as before markets collapsed, said H. Rodgin Cohen, chairman of law firm Sullivan & Cromwell LLP.
“The system will look more like what preceded the current environment than many people seem to believe,” Cohen said yesterday at a panel discussion on the future of Wall Street sponsored by Bloomberg News in New York. “I am far from convinced there was something inherently wrong with the system.”
Cohen, 64, joined Lazard Ltd. Deputy Chairman Gary Parr, 52, and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein, 59, in discussing the industry’s future after the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression forced the government to take equity stakes in hundreds of financial institutions. The panelists projected a future led by core banking and lower risk for established firms.
“There’s a good chance there are five to seven or eight global institutions, of which three or four will be clear winners and then some others will be good, doing full-service banking and securities business sort of as we knew it five years ago,” Parr said. They will operate “with a lot lower return on equity and a lot lower risk profile,” he added.
Banks and other financial institutions reported more than $1.37 trillion in writedowns and losses since the mortgage markets collapsed in 2007, and Parr said more are ahead. “There is still hundreds of billions of dollars of losses to be realized at a number of financial institutions,” he said. “There will be a need for substantial capital raising.”
Wall Street ‘Reshaped’
Rubenstein said that while Wall Street will likely rebound after the recession, competition probably will emerge from global banks being formed in China and the Middle East as well as from so-called boutique investment banks at home.
“Wall Street will be reshaped,” Rubenstein said. “People once thought that American brand-name institutions could do no wrong and that if they sold a product, it was a good product, and if they said something was worth a certain value, it was worth a certain value. Now that has changed.”
Rodgin’s a smart guy, but I am not sure I agree that the banking world will be pretty much as before. I think Rubenstein’s views will though.
“Millions of people who were fired or laid off will find it harder to get hired again and for years may have to accept lower earnings than they enjoyed before the slump. This restructuring — in what former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker calls “the Great Recession”
kettle [309],
Volcker gets it. The old economy is dead/buried. The restructuring will take years and be quite painful. Yet, the experts think that more debt is the answer. You can’t print your way to prosperity, nor can you re-shuffle debt. You’re simply diverting resources from productive sectors to insolvent enterprises, at the discretion of the govt. Somewhere Marx is spinning in his grave.
Nom,
a 25% rise in U3 may take you from 5 to 6.25, but a 25% rise in U6 takes you from 15 to 20%
I do not know what the underlying cause is, but there is a tight correlation between U3 and U6 that appears to have existed for the last 100 years even when different methodology was used at different periods.
Whether we discuss changes in unemployment in terms of U3 or U6 is somewhat irrelevant due to the tight multiplicative correlation between the 2. A 10% increase in U3 is equivalent to a 10% increase in U6.
Since these 2 measures seem to move in unison over a fairly long term, there shouldnt be reason to worry about one as opposed to the other U6 = U3 * 1.77
“green shoots” - the shooting of a driver in a vehicle which weighs less than 2,500 lb. or has hybrid technology.
Nom [314],
The key;
“They will operate “with a lot lower return on equity and a lot lower risk profile,” he added.”
Helicop Ben - “US recovery ahead, housing bottom seen…as long as there is no relapse of the credit squeeze that has strangled the economy.”
Well thank you Benjamin, but I would say that is one big, f’ing disclaimer, given the Fed is still the lender of only resort.
Does Ben drive a green car by any chance?
#302 sastry: You cannot fix stupid.
BC,
” The old economy is dead/buried. The restructuring will take years and be quite painful. Yet, the experts think that more debt is the answer.”
It’s harder to service current debt with lower income. How the hell to they expect people to take on even more debt with lower incomes.
They truly are that dumb. I think they are just attempting to bide their time hoping something unforeseen will save the economy before there’s civil unrest on the scale of a revolution.
as i said here many times, the recession ends at 5:00 pm if it even happened.
Does anybody use infrared thermometers?
What brand and what’s your experience?
Our little one is sick and it’s constant pain in the b@tt to measure his temperature.
Re: #309
Of course the long-term natural rate of unemployment will rise. When resources are diverted to support the inefficient, idle, and unproductive, the structural rate has no other place to go.
3b #320…
Seems like this realtor priced it very low to gain interest. Given that his listings often seem to be missing one or two main things on realtor.com (frequently the year)… Well, once the sale goes through, there will be a data point.
S
[323] fire
I use an in-ear version (don’t know brand) and was worried about discrepancies in tempature. I find that it gives consistent readings with a digital thermometer, and consistent readings over time. Nice thing is that I can use it when my child is asleep.
The technology is well established now so I don’t know that brand is an issue. This was a pharma giveaway toy (you know, the things we use to influence doctors to write scrip for drugs you don’t need), and it works fine.
One night recently, I stayed up and took temps every 10 minutes to monitor a high fever. I was able to see it decline after tylenol kicked in, and that allowed me to go back to bed rather than stay up and worry.
[318] BC
That part I agree with. But as for the players and the games, those will be different I think.
Firestorm,
We have had great results with a well made ear-thermometer. Very accurate and very quick. If you let your kid press the buttons and read the numbers, they become more comfortable with it. The prior 8 readings memory is helpful as well. We are happy with this one.
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001FWXKMM
Intresting information, it’s good that you posted this. I like to learn new things everyday so I want to read blogs like yours. Luke
#321 - HE - How the hell do they expect people to take on even more debt with lower incomes
I brought this up yesterday. I believe the general conclusion was; lower your standard of living and expectations.
I used to think the Montclair Line was the bastard step-child of MidTown Direct. Now I know that all NJT lines suck equally. Switch problems in Secaucus and Amtrak Signal Problems at Newark Penn looks like my ride to Lon Branch will now be well over 2 hrs. Pray for me that I actually get there, and pray for Baby G who I am visiting. She’s our friends’ daughter who was just born yesterday at 25 weeks gestation - 12 inches long and 1 lb 6 oz.
Have a great evening all.
NJGator says:
May 5, 2009 at 7:14 pm
Pray for me that I actually get there, and pray for Baby G who I am visiting. She’s our friends’ daughter who was just born yesterday at 25 weeks gestation - 12 inches long and 1 lb 6 oz
NJ: What happened?
Chifi - Placenta abruption. Baby is doing well for now. She came out kicking and trying to breathe on her own. Doctors say that is a good sign. We are all hopeful. Smaller babies have made it out of the NICU.
I AM OUTRAGED!
Sitting in this sardine for almost two hours now trying to get home from NY Penn on the NE Corridor line.
You can dig all the tunnels you want. If Amtrak can’t get its maintenance crew trained in the ways of Six Sigma uptime, the values of homes on any midtown direct line will surely decrease in value once someone cracks and lets loose a barrage of bullets on this here train.
Suck it New Jersey Transit!
… and God Bless Baby G. I pray that she thrives and is out of the NICU soon.
#325 sastry: If the sale goes through.
251 - Sean - Thanks for posting the Pecora article. I know you will keep me
up to date. No pressure! Just, if you hear anything - That or JEC, Warren stuff. Thanks again.
“Baby G who I am visiting. She’s our friends’ daughter who was just born yesterday at 25 weeks gestation - 12 inches long and 1 lb 6 oz”
wow. sorry to hear.
all my best.
SAS
re3337 Cindy - after the vote passes tomorrow in the House to form the Commission with Subpoena powers tell your friends and family that the circus is coming to town for the next two years.
If we are lucky it will be as good as the Whtiewater hearings where we were treated to some real insight on how dirty politics really is.
NJGator - prayers on the way.
Gator,
Best wishes to Baby G. I hope she grows up normally enough to joke about her birth weight with her grand kids.
S
ok, i am thinking something over with some contacts.
about to have a radical change of thought.
eee…gads…
SAS
Outofstater says:
May 5, 2009 at 4:11 pm
#287 Just can’t drive a Kia. To me, KIA means only one thing - Killed In Action. No thanks.
Used to be. Not anymore. Good value - that what’s driving sales.
BTW:
BMW stands for Brutal Money Waster
re: 326 and 328
Thank you for the reply. I’ll give it a try.
kettle,
you around?
SAS
“Real estate agents getting more optimistic”
So ar Cubs fans. Big deal. Show me numbers.
FORD: Found On Road Dead?
25 weeks? Egads. Good luck to all.
“Washington city may lay off drug-sniffing dog”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090505/ap_on_fe_st/odd_police_dog_budget
Gator - Keep us posted, if you can, on Baby G. Prayers here as well. My oldest is 25 month pregnant with her second. I can’t imagine what Mom is going through.
Sean (339) - Subpoena power -
“…the circus is coming to town for the next two years.” I can’t wait.
(347) Shore
You forgot
Fix Or Repair Daily
Fcuked On Race Day
Gator, I pray for the baby.
Gator,
It is true what Jason Robards said in “Parenthood”: “you never stop worrying about your kids. Never.”
It sucks to have to do it at Day One.
The RVL is finally moving. I’m going home, will give the little deplumes a kiss in their beds, and thank God for their health. And ask Him to look after Baby G.
Gator:
Hope for the best
Biden Hedge Fund Update
Francesco Rusciano is out on bail – released to the custody of his parents who have put up their house to stop him fleeing.
This is a guy – who according to SEC filings – has been able to raise $30 million from 15 high net worth customers. [Maybe raising hedge fund money is easier than it appears to this start-up… however if any rich folk from jurisdictions we can accept money from want to stump up we are keen to talk… good terms for early customers...]
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2009/05/in-odd-coincidence.html
(350) Gator - Obviously - you figured out that my oldest is 25 weeks pregnant and not 25 months pregnant. Oh man.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/credit-card-lending-goes-full-cycle.html
From Mish “Credit Card Lending Goes Full Cycle”
This guy from Tampa, an 800 credit score, was turned down - relined - because of deteriorating credit in his area.
Mish puts it something like this:
From redlining to reverse redlining (anyone could get a card) back again to redlining.
“25 months pregnant.”
Love to see those pictures.
(359) Stu -
Yeah - Caught that a bit too late. LOL when I reread it, though. I will see her in a month or so - NW baby shower. I do expect her to be “big” by then but come on…
http://www.wikio.com/video/1094326
Did you folks catch this on CNBC -
Rick Santelli to Steve Liesman “Don’t open your mouth and say dumb things.”
On who said what….Monday morning quarterbacking.
Bernanke bets that there are enough suckers to buy houses so that prices and people underwater stabilize while the rest start spending. This is why they are pumping the economy, stock market included. However there are smart people who are holding back, sorting so to speak this market but unfortunately there might not be enough.
If unemployment numbers turn around brace for another “buy now or priced out forever”.
This won’t be easy. The patience most of us will be tested by the gov/fed policies.
firestormik
I have this one which does not use disposable probes. Cheaper too.
http://www.amazon.com/HoMedics-TE-100-Thermometer-Infratemp-Technology/dp/B000F3X67G/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=hpc&qid=1241578355&sr=8-2
zieba says:
May 5, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Yikes,
Where does Bucks Co. money come from?
Is it part Philly finance, if there is such a thing? It’s a great place to visit and I often make the drive during the summer months. Occasionally, I’ll see a few Ferrari’s a Rolls Royce, or four and some really nice spreads.
No idea. just got here so still getting used to the area. BUT, i think many people work in NYC or Philly.
if/when my business runs its course and i have to work, i’ve got 2 plans, and after that, i may have to look at a job in philly or nyc.
#2 Grim,
“State figures were not available, but agents in New Jersey report that more sellers are accepting lower prices and first-time homebuyers are slowly beginning to take advantage of a new $8,000 federal tax credit.”
Nothing like paying a $100K too much to take advantage of an $8,000 discount. And unfortunately, most first time buyers probably are this financially inept.
#90
“kettle1 says:
May 5, 2009 at 9:52 am
Fun news point # 2
Federal aid is top revenue for states”
For some reason, it really bothers me that they call this “revenue”.
My amex card # leaked. I got really surprised about amex customer support. Way more better than let’s say 3 years ago. Got a call yesterday in regards of a Hong Kong airways ticket purchase and got a replacement today. Activated the card today and the girl from the customer service was not as much annoying trying to sign me up for their gold card.
RE: poor guy says:
May 5, 2009 at 10:56 pm
firestormik
I have this one which does not use disposable probes. Cheaper too.
———————-
Tnak you! Already ordered one that Stu sugested. I like Braun products
#110, Silera
“Discontent is just rampant in all directions.”
I think this may be a characteristic of more socialist policies/agendas. The perception of massive amounts of “wealth” being redistributed unequally or unfairly. Perhaps throwing freebies to the crowd can create more discontent than appreciation if they feel that a certain row received a disproportional number of gifts (or special preference)…
Just a thought.
I am finally home. NYP-LB only took 2 1/2 hrs tonight!
Baby G is on a respirator, but does not need any extra oxygen. She is the tiniest thing I have ever seen, but still has 10 little perfect fingers and 10 really long toes. She keeps trying to take off her sunshades and kick off her plastic wrap. She’s got a lot of spunk! She even has a head full of hair.
Her parents won’t be able to touch her for another week or 2, but the can bring visitors into the NICU to see her. Anyone who comes to visit must scrub their hands all the way up to the elbows for 3 full minutes.
She’s not even the smallest baby currently in the NICU. Can you believe that?
Next up is likely a procedure to close a hole in one of her heart valves which is very common in preemies. They actually do the surgery right in her bassinette so they don’t have to move her.
Thanks for all the good wishes and prayers. There are a lot of powerful thinkers here, so I am sure it will do a world of good!
Ok, trying to figure out what sends me to moderation. Please excuse my following posts.
#110, Silera
“Discontent is just rampant in all directions.”
“This guy Book is jumping on the Tea party grass roots movement.”
By the way there is going to be an even bigger tea party event 4th of July weekend.
Im in the mood for some armageddon conversation.
I think this may be a characteristic
If you all had to move to another country which would it be and why?
Heres my top 3.
1. Australia: English speaking and conservative, nice weather on the west coast.
2. New Zealand: similiar reasons minus the weather
3. A US island territory like Guam. If I choose to bury my head in the sand.
Hmmm beats me. Now I can’t post the rest of my comment. I was also berated by a warning that I was posting too fast. (huh?) Sometimes this site make me feel like a 6 yr-old in Mrs. Writer’s class.
#379
I vote 2. It’s one of my “must go” destinations before dying.
SAS
still here,
whats up?
I like this site. I’m also generally an amiable person, and there are very few things that get under my skin.
A moderation system that censors harmless comments and insights, but allows misspelled vulgarities, racial slurs, and other debasing language is utterly ridiculous. It’s not just an inconvenience; it’s a hindrance to the free flow of ideas.
Aw, fcuk it.
sean (286)-
Anyone who audits the Fed needs to wear a hazmat suit.
[south orange]
Lively downtown; overall crime level transitional between Irvington and Maplewood, matching geography. HS: Columbia High shared with Maplewood; fairly decent SAT, etc. score-wise but very stratified by the ethnic lines and not quite safe. Check NYT archives - the Times had some articles on this school a couple of years ago.
jcer (294)-
He’s already tapped Carla, now he’s gonna take Corzine’s job.
Make him your byatch, Cory!
“Booker, I cannot believe it???????? He really hasn’t taken an interest in Newark, does he have his eyes on Corzine’s seat?”
Just have one last question for the board, and then I won’t trouble with any more late night spamming..
Hypothetically, IF you had enough cash on hand to buy a house outright, how much would you put down?
20%? 50%? 100%? Why?
Assume home prices under $1M.
John #268
I had Mockler as well. He was a good man. Tough as hell but I never had a better professor. Made you think and I learned a lot from him.
Shame about Bent
Rev,
bare minimum, 3% FHA and buy shiny with the rest. The home is a non recourse loan, so worst case scenario i get to live rent free for 1+ yrs and end up with a hit to my credit while still having a serious chunk of change put away and happily avoiding the Fcuking that fiat currencies are currently and will continue to recieve.
Thanks for your input, kettle.
So, you’d take the monthly outflow of interest payments (i.e. 5%) and invest the rest in a currency alternative commodity hoping to outperform this rate? (tax implications included)
This is based on speculation that gold will outpace home appreciation or FDIC account interest rates, right? Or rather, that gold will maintain its value whilst the dollar and its denominated assets (house) devalue against it? It’s a gamble no?
I was just thinking that if someone had this money out of the stock market and was planning to buy a house, would it be a good idea to “lock-in” a ~5% rate of return (the cost of the mtg) by opting out of a loan. Especially considering MM accounts and short term CDs are paying much less.
If there was a big spike in inflation and interest rates were to jump like they did in the early 80s, I suppose it might be better for them to have the low rate mtg and earn the higher interest.
rev
what i suggested is risky. but would it be any more risky then having money in the stock market when the government is rigging the game and we have a massive debt bubble?
Housing will be near a bottom when it approaches a 3X income to mortgage ration my worthless opinion.
You have to survive deflation before you worry about inflation
tamiflu generic ybammc
Want to Sell Your Home? Lower Your Price
Does anyone know what normal price in Fort Lee area would be on houses that right now are asking 600-700K (These are still 2005-2006 prices based on my current research). One house on Franklin avenue was bought for $425 around 2001 timeframe. What do you think is realistic for the area given demographics and historical data?
Talking about normal houses (3BR) not mansions found in the Englewood Cliffs area. Thanks!