No Quick Recovery For NJ

From Bloomberg:

Fed Says New York, New Jersey May Lag National Recovery Trend

New York Federal Reserve Bank economists said that while the worst of the recession in New York and New Jersey may be over, a recovery in the region’s economy will probably lag the national trend.

“A downsizing of the area’s critical financial sector could pose a major risk to the economic outlook going forward, particularly for New York City,” the economists said in a paper posted on the New York Fed’s Web site.

Consolidation and restructuring among financial firms, along with possible regulatory changes that could limit the size of firms, their business lines and pay structure, “have the potential to dramatically reshape this sector” and slow a recovery, the district bank economists said.

The bank’s regional studies group constructed a coincident economic indicator comprising payrolls, unemployment, earnings and hours worked to calculate the impact of the recession on New York City, New York state and New Jersey.

Once the regional economy began to decline, the near collapse of the financial system had a “severe” effect, the economists found. In New York City, the economy contracted 4.9 percent in the twelve months to June. In New York state, the contraction was 5.7 percent, and in New Jersey, 5 percent.

Financial services account for about 12 percent of New York City’s employment, and as much as 30 percent of total wages, the bank said. Each Wall Street job is estimated to generate two additional jobs in the city supporting the industry, including advertising, restaurants or real estate.

The economists count a total of 42,000 financial jobs lost in New York City from early 2008 to July 2009. New Jersey has lost 25,000 jobs in the financial industry since September 2005.

“Job losses in the city’s securities industry have a disproportionate impact on the region’s total activity,” the economists’ report said.

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42 Responses to No Quick Recovery For NJ

  1. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    S&P cuts MBIA Insurance to junk status

    Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said late Monday that it downgraded MBIA Inc.’s main bond insurance unit to non-investment grade, or junk, status. S&P cut MBIA Insurance Corp. to BB+ from BBB. The rating agency also downgraded the holding company, MBIA Inc., to BB- from BB. The outlook is negative. S&P also affirmed the A rating of MBIA’s new bond insurance business, National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. S&P said losses on residential mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations that MBIA guaranteed from 2005 to 2007 could be higher than the agency had expected. The downgrade also reflects potentially higher losses on other assets, such as commercial mortgage-based securities, S&P added.

  2. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    Tax Credit Alone Fails to Lure Many Homebuyers, Says Zillow

    Nearly one-third of prospective first-time homebuyers said an extension of the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit would have “no influence” on their decision to purchase a home in 2010, according to a survey conducted by Harris Interactive on behalf of

    In the survey of adults who qualify for the credit, 18% said extending the credit from Dec. 1, 2009 to Nov. 30, 2010 would be the “primary influence” in their decision to purchase a home. An additional 25% said it would be a “significant influence,” 27% said it would have “some influence,” and 31% said it would have “no influence.”

    If the credit were extended, Zillow projects 1.86m homebuyers stand to take advantage of the program. And, if all buyers took the full tax credit, extending the program could cost $14.86bn.

  3. chicagofinance says:

    I don’t want this to get buried

    chicagofinance says:
    September 28, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    At this juncture, does any one have a favorite online savings account?

    ING Direct et al…..

  4. yikes says:

    if you know anyone near this town in illinois, tell them to get strapped, quick

    budget cuts make police staff cut staffers … worse yet, the town had police cruisers REPOSSESSED by the bank

  5. Shore Guy says:

    “explosive suppositories ”

    Don’t laugh. A variation on this theme formed the basis of a very serious discussion at an aviation counter-terrorism presentation in DC not long ago. Feel free to ask me face to face, but I am going to let the details stay off the board.

  6. sean (5)-

    Can’t wait ’til John weighs in on this one.

  7. What’s the trigger? Taco Bell extra-spicy?

  8. Shore Guy says:


    The worst part about this threat is that the attackers can start off in multiple locations over multiple days and just end up in the same hub airport at the same time.

    It is a B!tch of a problem to counter.

  9. Note to self: cancel application to be a restroom attendant at NWK.

  10. grim says:

    At this juncture, does any one have a favorite online savings account?

    While it isn’t generally thought of as a “savings” account, I like Fidelity. They offer enough bank-like features to be able to use it as your primary bank.

    It isn’t my primary, since I balance between Fidelity (DIY brokerage), Morgan Stanley (Brokerage), Hudson City (checking/CDs) and TD (checking only).

  11. Sean says:

    Not kidding, some crazy Saudi tried to blow up a Saudi Prince who was in charge of counter-terrorism. He was standing right next to him when the suppository bomb went off.

    They are calling this a Paradigm Shift, since these bombs are not readily detectable.

  12. Here’s where AQ gets their new bombing ideas:

  13. Shore Guy says:

    Imagine the problem this poses for aviation, where all one needs is a relatively small charge in one of several really, really, bad spots to bring down a $200,000,000 piece of equipment with several hundred people on it.

    Airport security is not currently able to deal with this and not even the next generation or two of scanners is going to stop this type of attack.

    Happy traveling, everyone.

  14. Shore Guy says:


    It makes for an interesting discussion over a beer.

  15. Essex says:

    I only use PNC. They seem to be the last of the big independents.

  16. Shore, we don’t need AQ to bring us down with butt-bombs. We’re doing a great job of deep-sixing ourselves.

    Here’s the latest on the biggest terrorist currently in the US. I’d say he should be public enemy #1, right ahead of OBL:

    “Tim Geithner hit the ground running in January when he took over as Treas. Sec. He had a lot on his plate. One of his smaller responsibilities was the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Mr. Geithner has knocked the cover off with this one. So far this year the FFB has increased its portfolio by 50%. By asset size, FFB would have ranked 35th in the USA at the end of 2008. Today it would be ranked about 25th. Clearly a job well done.

    The FFB is a child of the 70’s. It appears to have been a doghouse lender for years. The following looks at the FFB loan book. The numbers involved are peanuts compared to the big numbers that are being tossed around D.C. However there is a window into the thinking of Treasury in their lending activity.

    The FFB business model is simple. They borrow money from Treasury and lend it to government Agencies. They take a small spread on the loans to cover administrative costs. Because all these loans are to ‘family’ members there is supposed to be no credit risk. On this issue FFB says:

    The Bank has not incurred and does not expect to incur any credit-related losses on its loans.

    Well, that sounds good. It is not clear to me that this is the case. The following is a description/discussion of the loan book at the end of July. You tell me if all this is money good:”

  17. PGC says:

    Brings a whole new meaning to the phrase “guarde l’eau”

    That it derives from the term “gardyloo” (a corruption of the French phrase gardez l’eau (or maybe: Garde de l’eau!) loosely translated as “watch out for the water!”) which was used in medieval times when chamber pots were emptied from a window onto the street. However the first recorded usage of “loo” comes long after this term became obsolete.

  18. Here’s an especially cheerful line from that report. Note that everyone in this crisis who has called their solvency problem one of liquidity has been 100% dead wrong:

    “This may be a blueprint for a fix of the FDIC. Sheila Bair has said the problem with her Agency is “liquidity” not “solvency”. She could make use of the cheap money from FFB, as does NCUA. Note that there is already a line open on the report for the FDIC. Call this a blank check.”

  19. Shore Guy says:


    UBL, UBL, not OBL.

  20. Sean says:

    whatever you do tonight, do not google butt bomb.

  21. sean (23)-

    Too late for me. Perhaps the fact that I used Beavis & Butthead in the search will keep the black helicopters from landing in my yard tonight.

  22. confused in NJ says:

    “O” is going to require mandatory Colonoscopys for evey Domestic Flight. That adds 2 hours to flight time and $4K to flight cost.

  23. Sean says:

    Wacky Joisey

    Drivers hurling slugs, foreign coins, fast food garbage – and the most common item, unused condoms — into toll road coin baskets have cost the New Jersey Turnpike Authority millions in lost revenue.

    In the last year, the agency that oversees both the turnpike and Garden State Parkway lost $13.6 million due to toll-evading motorists who rolled through E-ZPass toll booths without an electronic toll reader, or tossing objects into coin collection baskets rather than pay the proper fare.
    Another popular item is trash from rest stop fast food restaurants like Burger King or Nathan’s, he said. “Sometimes I get the feeling that over the course of their drive people are just cleaning out their cars,” Orlando said.

    “People think it’s funny,” he said. “It’s a significant amount of money. What’s more significant is other people are actually paying the toll so many people are doing the right thing.”

  24. confused (26)-

    He and his minions are giving me one on a daily basis…no Vas.

  25. sean (27)-

    Toss a weird looking suppository into a toll basket!

  26. Does this mean the Butthole Surfers will go onto a watch list?

  27. Money Exchanger says:

    TO #4 Chicago Finance

    ING Sav&Elec Orange (Online Electronic Chk Acct) comes with a Debit Card & overdraft line of credit (overdraft is cool – One acct with positve balance you earn interest/negative you pay interest 7%+). Reliable steady savings rate// IF more than 50K than Electric Orange pays more interest than savings acct. 3 max other acct link. Can be set up a Rev Trust. (3 business day transfers)

    HSBC Direct Savings/Online Payment Acct same as ING- Usually a little better rates – overdraft is a separate issue. Can link as many accounts as you want.

    Everbank – 1 Acct -Checking&Debit Card with interest tiered on balances. Can link as many accounts as you want. 5 business days transfer time. Real checks, pay monthly fee for on line bill pay.

    All the other online savings (Capital One, AMEX. etc). Tend to play around with the interest rates. The above ones tend to be very reliable -warts & all.

  28. PGC says:

    #32 Kettle

    Mine Hill is a town just hanging on. I thinkthy merged the police force with Whaton and were lookingf to share with Mount Arlington to save cost when they lots the state funding. I think it is on Corzines Merge or wither on the Vine list.

  29. kettle1 says:


    here is one for you. this seems to be in your circle. of course this ignores the sunburn cruise missle which also has the ability to serious threaten the US navy

  30. Monday nights are the best. Fox Football Fone-In, with a GG chaser.

    Tonight’s GG has Emmy written all over it.

    Vanessa in the wrapper thingy cut open to the sternum has given me another reason to live.

  31. sas says:

    “New York Federal Reserve Bank economists said that while the worst of the recession in New York and New Jersey”


    its a nice & slow decline.

    Game over

  32. sas says:


    been spending some time at the general debate of the 64th Session over at the UN over on 1st Ave.

    Lucky me, heard Omama & Ahmadinejad both speak last Wed, and to be honest, it was a treat.

    Omama was saying some decent things till he blew it by single out Iran.

    and Ahmadinejad, well… hate to admit it, but he was right on the money about things.

    The tension is building.
    If things heat up, crude will skyrocket.


  33. Pat says:

    sean, I don’t think the toll as garbage repository thing is wacky. It’s a concise political statement, and the behavior should be taken seriously.

    I got a guy by me down here who sells birdhouses. He’s not there. Just an old cottage in the middle of nowhere with birdhouses nailed all over it, money box out front. He never gets ripped or trashed because there is perceived value. But who in the h3ll really needs a birdhouse? Perception is key. Every couple of days, he drives up, nails up houses over the empty spots, empties his box, and drives away.

  34. sas says:

    also had an interesting conversation with an Ijaw out of the Niger Delta.

    topic: oil smuggling.


    I still have alot to learn.

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