Sun 13 Dec 2009
From the NYT:
The Hottest Topic in Home Sales
RESIDENTIAL property taxes: Could there be a more potent issue for real estate right now in New Jersey?
Polls indicated that voter concern over high taxes — New Jerseyans pay the highest average of any state — was the defining issue last month in the gubernatorial election that swept Gov. Jon S. Corzine out of office after one term.
Brokers and sales agents report that tax rates are often the first thing on anyone’s lips when a home sale is discussed today.
“We’re now at a point, even in the high-end towns, where people are extremely aware of what they pay in taxes,” said Roberta Baldwin, an agent with Re/Max Village Square in Montclair. “And buyers are very aware of what they might be signing up for.
“You will have some setting limits at the outset on what they are willing to pay in taxes,” she added. “They’ll say, ‘I want the perfect house, but I don’t want taxes over $16,000.’ Or $20,000, or whatever.”
…
So what do typical homeowners do when their property taxes reach that point? Relocate?The answer seems to be that despite vociferous disgruntlement over taxes and a record number of tax appeals this year — and despite recent numbers indicating more people moving out of New Jersey than moving in — buyers remain willing to pay high taxes if they have children in well-regarded schools that the taxes underwrite.
From 2000 to 2008, a period during which average property taxes rose by 50 percent, to top out slightly over $7,000, a total of 439,000 people left the state, according to James W. Hughes, the dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. Over that same period, he said, 385,000 moved in, many of them immigrants.
…
Looking within the state — with its extreme tax rate disparities from county to county, town to town, and sometimes even house to house — it is also difficult to discern how, or if, taxes actually affect sales, or the desirability of a particular place.
…
Ms. Baldwin said she long ago confronted the issue of the high property taxes that she has paid as a resident of Montclair for more than 25 years.“We thought we had reached a breaking point when we were going to have the kitchen redone in our home, and looked at the assessments, and found our house worth less than we had paid for it while our taxes had gone way up,” she said.
She said she and her husband cruised around “lake country,” looking at houses in Passaic County — and fantasizing.
Then, reality sank in: “We don’t want to move out to the country. We need to live in this wonderful town, with all these smart and artsy people we know and like, and wonderful culture, and so close to Manhattan. And we are willing to pay for it.”
frist?
“buyers remain willing to pay high taxes if they have children in well-regarded schools that the taxes underwrite”
Argument is overrated. High taxes are widespread among NJ towns, but they don’t all have top-notch schools.
We need to live in this wonderful town, with all these smart and artsy people we know and like, and wonderful culture, and so close to Manhattan. And we are willing to pay for it.”
Wonder where’s my bucket. Really gotta hurl after that one. Doesn’t need to be the artsy bucket either, any bucket that’s light and non-porous will do.
Anyone I’ve met in NJ who does not work in NYC but uses that so close to Manhattan line goes to NYC no more than twice a year.
“They’ll say, ‘I want the perfect house, but I don’t want taxes over $16,000.’ Or $20,000, or whatever.”
I am so looking forward to buying a house in a town with good schools so we can live in a tiny cape/ranch/split/colonial so we can spend 2 months of our take home pay a year on property taxes.
But it’s for the children.
“But we have not had anyone walk away from a deal because of the taxes.”
I wonder how many people sold because of taxes. I wonder how many people didn’t make an offer because of taxes. I wonder why the media never asks follow up questions that probe for more detail/substance. I wonder why am I up at 4 AM.
The same way I believe $4 a gallon gas was one of the major tipping points in accelerating the popping of the US housing bubble, I bet this turns out to be the tipping point for Sydney.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/childcare-costs-to-rise-20091213-kpxg.html
Daycare costs are expected to go up $22 a day per kid in sydney. Daycare in a suburb of sydney’s version of traintown NJ was over $600 a week per kid 4 years ago, this should push it to around $800 a kid at the same time it drives some day cares out of business. 6k a year in discretionary spending will get consumed by additional daycare costs. (The same way people cut back on donuts, coffee, eating out, buying books, dvds etc over here at $4 a gallon gas and never went back to purchasing at their old levels)
I could be wrong, but with most mtgs in Sydney being variable (the interest rate can change monthly) or are arms, and their version of the fed talking about raising rates……
the end is nigh.
“‘Family Ties’ Actor Bonsall Facing Assault Charge’
http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/21949720/detail.html
The difference between is 80’s pic and current mug shot is shocking.
4. The children. Taxes are out of control here. Too bad really. I do not mind spending tax money on education or some municipal services, but I think in some cases, the way these entities are run needs auditing and streamlining.
7. this jerkoff was a baby in the 80’s….and like most exploited kids (child “stars”) he got used to adulation and unrealistic levels of compensation and attention. Once the cute wears off and the reality that he is an untalented relentless douchebag….the fall is precipitous.
#9 Essex,
From wholesome looking kid to dirtbag with tats on his throat is quite a fall.
My wife left this ny post article out for me this morning. Thats her way of saying, “yes dear you and your blog friends were right.”
New Housing Crisis
Mortgage plan ‘failure’ could spark 2nd collapse
If the banks don’t cut the principal of the mortgages, they are likely to end up with more vacant homes. If they do give the mortgage a serious rate cut to keep the family in place, then the value of the second lien on the home — which the banks carry on their books — could be wiped out.
And that could make several banks insolvent.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/new_housing_crisis_09T0RGgqW9pMpEzBaD1tEI
Gator, you and Stu should read today’s article several times and get the hell out of that soci@list craphole of a town while you still can.
What a load of bahooey. Put a fence around it, and let them tax themselves into oblivion, all for the idea of getting to feel “special”.
All for the kids, my ass.
Cutting the principal. God. Financial irresponsiblity as a new and rewarding fashion trend. Meanwhile, all the people who paid off their mortgages feel like chumps.
good morning!
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/13/business/economy/13rates.html?hp
The super-low rates are not likely to last much longer. The Federal Reserve program that has driven rates to such lows, which involves buying $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, is scheduled to expire in March, and Fed leaders have said that it would not be renewed.
Some analysts believe rates could jump as high as 6 percent in the spring. On a $300,000 mortgage, such a jump would cost an extra $225 a month.
Can we blow up the world already?
Turned on the tv and on 3 different news chanels they were debating whether or not the black princess in the recent Disney movie spent to much time as a frog and does this bother various well known black public figures!!!!
This is what we get as the empire burns?
We should just go ahead and nuke ourselves already. Same end result just a quicker process. And we get the bonus of radioactive induced superpowers!
#15 Well, okay but what about the frog lobby? Huh, huh?? Maybe she didn’t spend ENOUGH time as a frog because Disney is being so species-centric. And why didn’t the news channels interview any frogs to see what THEY think of the whole situation?? Fair and balanced, my sweet Irish @ss! Where is the outrage??
13. Dude…when a business writes off bad debt or “goodwill” it is called business. Why should homeowners be any different. It is time people said F my bank and my credit score. Leave the morality play out of it. Jerkoff.
13. P.S. If I had my mortgage paid off I would not feel like a chump, just fortunate that I knew I had a roof over my head.
10. Or fashion victim.
tick… tick… tick… tick…
Essex
I already did that. The CC companies offered to settle at 30 cents on the dollar after ignoring all communications from them for 9 months. My credit score went from 805 to 695. But F them as I live off cash only and have done so for the last 9 months. My only bills now are rent, gas, and utilities.
I owed 30k to the CC companies and settled for 8750.
yikes (14)-
Baloney. These guys threaten an “end” to all these programs, then extend at the last minute. Tax credits, TARP, etc…just look at Japan if you want a preview of our playbook.
Two decades of ZIRP, a zombie economy and complete societal torpor…coming soon to a town near you.
Gotta go eat my raw fish and cold rice now.
Interesting angle. Instead of Soverign Wealth funds, showing up to the rescue, was there cars with suitcases full of shink wrapped bills instead?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2009/dec/13/drug-money-banks-saved-un-cfief-claims
Outofstater,
the REALLY important news:
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2009/12/11/hln.disney.first.black.princess.cnn?iref=allsearch
Does Disney’s new movie, “The Princess and the Frog,” portray African-Americans in a positive light? Prime News reports
JPM just sent me a letter, slashing 20K off a business line of credit I’ve barely drawn down. Never a missed payment, never a problem.
I think I will stop paying it, then settle for a fraction of the balance.
” Leave the morality play out of it.”
I agree, let them ALL (institions and individuals) burn.
PGC (23)-
I think we need sas to weigh in on that article.
Got a feeling I know what he’s gonna say.
Schump
could we get a few bankers to emulate the japanese?
<i.A suicide technique that mixes household chemicals to produce a deadly hydrogen sulfide gas became a grisly fad in Japan last year. Now it’s slowly seeping into the United States over the internet, according to emergency workers, who are alarmed at the potential for innocent causalities.
At least 500 Japanese men, women and children took their lives in the first half of 2008 by following instructions posted on Japanese websites, which describe how to mix bath sulfur with toilet bowl cleaner to create a poisonous gas. One site includes an application to calculate the correct portions of each ingredient based on room volume, along with a PDF download of a ready-made warning sign to alert neighbors and emergency workers to the deadly hazard.
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/03/japanese-deterg/
I’m a small business owner who’s probably drawn down less on lines of credit than others in similar positions.
So far, I have yet to miss a payment on anything (going on 10 years in business).
If a lender is going to whack away at my lines, what are they doing to guys who have big balances and depend heavily on them? So much for some hope and change for small business. I guess TPTB’s approach is to make a lot of big talk about small business support, then stick a shiv in us on the sly.
This is not going to end well.
vodka (28)-
Send me that .pdf when you get a chance.
I wonder if I can scale up the formula enough to take out a whole Chase branch…
#17 With an attitude like that, multiplied many times over, I guess we really are doomed. The financially responsible and the taxpayers will pay for the “F the banks” mentality. Great. When someone doesn’t pay their mortgage or their credit cards, all of the rest of us pay, one way or another.
stater (31)-
That’s why everyone should stick it to the banksters.
Only way to fix things now is to burn it all to the ground and start over.
#32 Okay, so how would that work? Seriously. Everyone stops paying their mortgage and their credit cards, the banks have no income and collapse into a pile of their own toxic waste. So all the banks close, there is no money and commerce stops til we figure out a barter system? And this is preferable to people abiding by the terms of the contracts they signed? I’m not understanding this.
“the REALLY important news:”
it is important. Its the way to keeo the mass population, stupid, and to have them get worked up for little things. You do this by throwing in the race card.
Racial tension & race wars. Perfect way to distract people from real issues, and used as a cover while the thieves sneak in your back door.
SAS
stater (33)-
See #34.
And, yes, you’ve got it just about right. Cause all the major banks to fail. They are all already insolvent and wards of the state. By causing bank failures, gubmints will also fall…a side benefit of the whole thing.
SAS
“sneak” in the back door?
the thieves walked in wearing suits and shouting over a bullhorn and we still ignored them.
They even tell us the truth and we still ignore it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-jfrjXrOyc&feature=related
“the thieves walked in wearing suits and shouting over a bullhorn and we still ignored them.”
true.
SAS
SAS
I am so glad to see that the FEDs et al finally solved the hwole “questioning Authority” issue. It makes debt slavery much easier and more efficient.
another note kettle:
public schools are also used (in conjunction with race, TV, & media).
public schools are used as a tool to mold kids to fit in the industrialized economy ladder system. i.e they turn you into nice obedient workers to fit you into an assembly line. and if you “work hard” you may (most likely not) will move up the ladder.
there is a reason why they call it a “class”room.
and a reason why your silly employer has a “human” resource department.
get the drift?
you think Buffet & Bloomberg send their kids to PS 32?
SAS
What’s the next best thing to ‘never’ having to pay your bills?
________________________________________________________________________________
Democrats plan to allow the government’s debt to swell by nearly $2 trillion as part of a bill next week to pay for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The amount pretty much equals the total of a year-end spending spree by lawmakers and is big enough to ensure that Congress doesn’t have to vote again on going further into debt until after the 2010 elections.
and i haven’t even touched on drugs and tainted tap water.
so, if you think may walk around like children & brain dead zombies… well… its true.
SAS
Drugs are the big reason we are still in the Afghan war. Those poppy fields are worth billions.
“Those poppy fields are worth billions.”
correction bloke: TRILLIONS.
that poppy money gets funneled to Wall St banks, and then they do fractional lending on it.
throw in military contract and access to natural resources, and now you know why troops are there.
and the saps think its about “protecting your freedoms”
hogwash.
you want to end terrorism? easy, don’t engage in it.
SAS
Essex,
at a GTG, if I ever get off my tail, i could tell you some interesting offline stories from southeast asia back in early 70s.
watch that movie, American Gangster. Its Hollywood, but they do touch & dabble on some very real things that happened. except it wasn’t rogue, it was a whole streamline.
and the invention of the barcode… wow! what an amazing technology.
SAS
Look forward to it. One of these nights I will make one of those.
Just flipped the news on again for the hell of it.
THEY ARE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE DAMN BLACK FROG PRINCESS!!!!!
When does the mother ship arrive? I am ready to go home now.
46. I stopped watching the network news when that Ron Burgundy fellow left.
They are showing Mel Brooks “Silent Movie” on RetroPlex….it’s been a long time but damn that is funny!
well i’ve already settle with the mortgage
and came out in good shape except for the
ding on the credit report.
anybody got more info on settlements with
the Credit card guys.
43. whats the mechanism for funneling of poppy fields to wall st?
49. Just pretend you don’t give a crap what they do…Invite them to sue — After all it is unsecured debt. Ignore the ones you could care less about. Look for a nice 60% number.
thks , essex, and how about the collection
guys when they turn it over, ? only 60?
Schump - Re the NYT article, how about some basic fact-checking? Roberta has lived in Glen Ridge, not Montclair, for the last 10 years.
As for Montclair, we have made 2 really big town hires in the last few months - we hired our new HS principal from Trenton and just hired our new Town Manager from Plainfield. We gave them both big, fat raises to reward them for their mediocrity in their previous positions.
Wait, cancel the mother ship, it appears big daddy O has this all under control!
“I did not run for office to be helping out a bunch of fat cat bankers on Wall Street,” Obama tells 60 Minutes’ Steve Kroft. “What’s really frustrating me right now is that you’ve got these same banks who benefited from taxpayer assistance who are fighting tooth and nail with their lobbyists …up on Capitol Hill, fighting against financial regulatory control.”
gator, if you got one from the trenton system,you can bet it a loser.
54. Meh. He knows his fifteen minutes are…just….about….up.
Schump,
dubai 2012?
http://www.gametrailers.com/video/spec-ops-spike-tv/59820?type=flv
52…Oh now they are a whole different matter. Ignore them entirely!!
In 1994 I decided to default on some stuff….believe me your “score” eventually recovers and you can easily enslave yourself all over again
At that tender age I actually took collectors calls and listened to these knuckle draggers….like they matter. They simply speculate on the debt. If you were not motivated to pay the original bill and took the hit on the credit. Why reward the moron who bought the debt at a nickle a dollar??? Ignore and even laugh at those losers. Seriously.
We may want to pay attention here.
if this blog is consistently ahead of the curve and we are now discussing the best methods to default on debt…..
What happens to the consumer economy and the “green shoots” when this becomes mean stream and accepted in about a year or 2?
If this blog acts as a canary, that canary has fallen off of the roost.
screw the banks, they screwed us good.
Schump,
you must be atrend seter.
Somone asked whathappens when the banks collapse from people defaulting, what do we do for money? I suspect bullets could make a nice currency.
we already have different denominations, .22, .45, .223, .308, .50 etc
Ket 61 Is it time to go shopping again?
#2 All the schools are over rated, so called good, bad, and, in between. So many that comment on the “good schools” do not have a clue. They are just repeating what their realtor or friends told told them.
From the NYT:
Americans Owe Less. That’s Not All Good.
AMERICAN consumers owe less now than they did a year ago. Before the current financial crisis, that would have been unthinkable.
Figures released this week by the Federal Reserve showed that Americans owed $10.8 trillion on home mortgages at the end of the third quarter, down 2.2 percent from a year earlier and the lowest level since mid-2007.
Similarly, the Fed said that outstanding credit card bills in October totaled $888 billion, down 8.5 percent from a year earlier. That number was the lowest since March 2007.
Those trends do not, however, necessarily indicate that Americans have paid down their debts and are starting to lead the more frugal lives that some financial planners have been recommending for years. There has undoubtedly been some of that, but the declines also indicate that banks have been forced to write off a lot of bad debts and have grown more stingy in granting credit.
As can be seen from the accompanying charts, banks’ credit card write-offs have soared, to an annual rate of 10.2 percent in the third quarter of this year.
And the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that at the end of the third quarter, 4.5 percent of all mortgages were in foreclosure — one in 22 mortgages. It said another 6.1 percent — one in 16 — were at least two months overdue. Those figures are for all mortgages, not just subprime ones.
AMERICAN consumers owe less now than they did a year ago.
That’s because they foreclosed, defaulted, declared bankruptcy, altered their identity, left the country or were found dead.
From the Star Ledger:
Cost of health care in N.J. hospitals far exceeds other states
The pain in Dan Abrams’ leg throbbed so much he could barely stand.
Still, the 60-year-old Somerville resident, who friends say had just canceled his health insurance because of the tough economy, debated from a hospital emergency room whether he should stay and run up thousands of dollars in debt, or take antibiotics from home and hope they arrested the mysterious infection in his leg.
Fearing he could lose his home and flooring business, Abrams chose to leave Somerset Medical Center after a hospital physician said staying would “run him a lot of money,” said Connie Dodd, a close friend who drove him to the hospital and heard the conversation. “I begged him to stay. But Dan’s a proud man. Talk of all the bills got him scared.”
When Connie and her partner, Cindy Weiss, brought Abrams dinner the next night, July 29, they found his lifeless body in bed. Weiss performed CPR but it was too late. “It was a nightmare,” Dodd said.
For people without health insurance, few things are more intimidating than the arrival of a hospital bill.
Nowhere is the sticker shock worse in the country than in New Jersey, according to health experts and a new report by the New Jersey Health Care Quality Institute, a prominent health care policy group based in Trenton.
New Jersey’s hospital “charges” — the price list used to negotiate the cost of a bill for the uninsured and for insured people who use a hospital outside their network — are four times higher than the actual cost of treating a patient.
…
Because the charges are used to negotiate prices of everything from treating pneumonia to removing a gall bladder, they inflate health insurance premiums, according to the largest health insurance company in the state, Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield. And there is no way to know how many people, like Abrams, decline hospital care when confronted with even the possibility of a big hospital bill, said David Knowlton, the institute’s president and CEO.
“Patients forced to pay the charge rate or anywhere close to it are getting screwed,’’ he said.
Ignore collectors.
I bought a new cellphone and switched providers right before I stopped paying. I never recieved a single phone call from the collectors as I only gave the number to friends.
I recieved a number of letters and could see the collection get passed from one collector to another as the letter head changed.
I finally called the CC companies directly and negotiated the settlement.
The funny part is that I stopped paying because my former employer was a small business that wasn’t able to make payroll once they got their credit line pulled by BAC. The business was profitable and doing well at the time. BAC killed a profitable small business just for the F of it and as a result myself and several others from that business stopped paying CC bills.
The beautiful irony is that a big chunk of my CC debt was to BAC. If they hadn’t killed my former employer I would still be paying their CC bill
Guess 67
Fight the Power!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlW7u5Y7M-Y&feature=related
Grim 66
Why not just give all fake info then skip out on the ER bill if you are concerned about your health? I know people who are already doing this. The sentiment seems to be a developing into a free for all as the people see everyone but them get a free pass.
Pandora’s box has been blown wide open.
What are rates in New York, Delaware, or PA?
Might be cheaper just to take a longer trip to a hospital if you are uninsured.
From the NYT:
Interest Rates Are Low, but Banks Balk at Refinancing
Mortgage rates in the United States have dropped to their lowest levels since the 1940s, thanks to a trillion-dollar intervention by the federal government. Yet the banks that once handed out home loans freely are imposing such stringent requirements that many homeowners who might want to refinance are effectively locked out.
The scarcity of credit not only hurts homeowners but also has broad economic repercussions at a time when consumer spending and employment are showing modest signs of improvement, hinting at a recovery after two years of recession.
Refinancing could save owners hundreds of dollars a month, which could be spent, saved or used to pay down debts. Extra spending would help lift the economy, and lower payments might spare some people from losing their homes to foreclosure.
Anyone see the article in today’s RE section of the Bergen Record entitled, “Pricing Home for Sale is an Art?” I can’t find an online link. Can anyone find it?
Is it an article, or an advertorial? Is it marked with the “Special to the” tag in the byline?
#72 gary: What type of art should be employed in pricing this?
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2933485&id=999999
#72 gary: Or this???
p://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm?mls_number=2938710&id=999999
3b
I can’t wait to see the condition of the housebuilt post 2000 inabout 10 years. Hurray for toxic chinese dispoable homes
http://www.njmls.com/cf/details.cfm
Guess who (21)-
Wondering if you have any other assets. I think that the window for doing strategic defaults is closing. Banks and their legislative lackeys will not let this happen. By the time this hits MSM it will be too late.
I do not feel like a chump for paying my mortgage early. Those that fcuk up and get it forgiven will fcuk up again.
I believe the whole fiscal crisis was made easier to sell to the public by the myth that letting banks collapse would have brought down the system. There are plenty of healthy banks that would move up to be the next JPM or BAC.
3b,
I can tell by your listings posts that you probably have pretty cool tastes. A lot of people would think that one at #74 was beeeeeeUteeful.
I agree with Kettle, this blog is often ahead of the trend, but I think the strategic default mentality is not 1-2 years away, I suspect you will start seeing it mainstreaming around next summer. This will be a paper revolution.
Taking in a Sunday’s worth of financial news and this blog, yeah…..I wanna take those zero balance credit cards and go out today and buy every high end appliance I’ve ever wanted, and not pay for any of them. My husabnd’s too much of a goodie goodie!
70.grim says:
December 13, 2009 at 12:15 pm
What are rates in New York, Delaware, or PA?
Might be cheaper just to take a longer trip to a hospital if you are uninsured.
I went to Easton Hospital PA, rather then Warren Hospital NJ, for a Colonoscopy. Both charged $16K Gross less 15% UHC discount for allowable charge of $13.6K. UHC paid $12.24K (90%)with balance to me. If I had gone to Hunterdon Medical NJ, Gross charge would have been 50% less. Reasonable & Customary Charges have been replaced with Arbitrary & Capricious Charges. The Hospital in room rate at Warren Hospital is $10K/day versus Heunterdon at $2K/day using 2006 figures. National Average for a Colonoscopy is about $2.5K.
Where U.S. Homes Are Most Overpriced …Only N.J.( #12) town/city Camden ! http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/03/cities-overpriced-sales-lifestyle-real-estate-miami-florida-homes_chart.html?partner=yahoore
83.
How is NJ not more accounted for on that list? I’m starting to think there is a conspiracy going on in new jerey
D2b
yes I do have other assets although I have followed somewhat in make money’s footsteps. I am cash heavy as the banks are all toast
Does default = wealth, or is default the new black?
Kettle [59],
As you are well aware, every major paper currency has ended in default. The dollar will not be the exception. IMO, that’s the current strategy. It’s too far gone. China? Too bad. The fed will show them their balance sheet and offer $2T of “pristine assets”. Maiden Lane? How about Mandarin Lane?
It’s funny, many “smart” cookies feel that devaluing the dollar is a wise decision. Hell, our exports become more competitive and it’s the tonic to employment growth.
Unfortunately, you can’t sustain any recovery thru eternal currency manipulation. It will lead to paper wars, trade protectionism, and eventually a systemic crash.
That said, how do we pay off our debts? Increasing treasury auctions? Well, the fed and primary dealers[the fed] are the major buyers, foreign CB’s have
their own issues. Raise taxes? They tried that in 1930. Cut spending? I guess, if you want the whole house of cards to implode.
The solution? Print to oblivion and eventually default. No reprecussions? What happens to our worthless dollars? We’ll have the opportunity to turn in our defaulted dollars for the new currency. One problem, how about $3 or $2 for $1 of the new currency. Your million dollars now buys $333-500K. if we’re lucky, of the new currency.
Guess what, the architect’s and msm will report that nodody saw this coming.
In addition to that, I’ll once again be called an idiot for laying out this scenario.
Start preparing now.
No default is just a sad side affect of a trash and burn economy….in the long run we will all be better off as a result. Maybe. And perhaps by keeping things longer…and having “less” we’ll appreciate what we have. We’ll look for quality…and we might even decide to make things over here again.
#84 I am assuming it includes all of NJ.
#80 Barbara: I think you are starting to see it now. After all the Wall St Journal of all places is running articles on it.
At first I was appalled, but now who cares. There is no incentive for doing the right thing today, so why bother. It is only for fools.
Moral hazard is not a discussion any more, but a reality. Mr. Benrnake bears alot of the responsibility for making it so.
#87 How? By stocking up on gold, ammo, antibiotics, bourbon and bullets?
#87 BC Hell, our exports become more competitive
But just what do we really export these days?
Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi Attack At Milan Rally Condemned As “Act Of Terrorism”
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/italian-prime-minister-berlusconi-attacked-rally-milan
I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the future for politicians and not an isolated incident.
Ps. I do not condone such actions, but there’s a ton of disenchantment out there that’s not making it to the MSM.
#79 Your right!! Sad, that somebody actually designed that and thinks it is beeeuttttteeeful!!!!!
The designer/builder might say I m just jealous. Jealous of living in that plosh of a house!!! Never!!
“43. whats the mechanism for funneling of poppy fields to wall st?”
ha ha..
yeah right. thats offline convo.
SAS
BC
yes thar day is much closer than many could imagine
Re #92
“But just what do we really export these days?”
Come on 3b that answer is obvious………..
BAD DEBT!!
#98 Well yeah, but besides that.
I look forward to more strategic defaults, but the corporatocracy that runs our country also controls our media. If you read the abstract Tosh posted a few weeks back, you would see that strategic defaults just ain’t gonna happen.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1494467
Since reading the abstract, I have informally polled a few coworkers. None of the ten or so people I asked what they thought about strategic default thought it was a wise decision for a homeowner. For whatever reason, the more Republican one leaned, the more the topic of morality entered the equation. I really couldn’t figure that one out.
The one thing in the piece that was really eye opening for me was how the author pushed the point that the banks making the loans were the experts when it came to valuing homes which is why they (professionally) appraise it. If your house drops in value by 50% or more, why should the bank (the experts) not share in the loss? In my opinion, many more defaults are likely, but not of the strategic variety.
The solutions posted in the abstract were excellent, but unfortunately will never see the light of day.
For those who have not read it yet, I implore you to.
Doh. Gator took over my computer again.
From the title of this thread I thought it may have been another Tiger Woods story.
Very simple answer to this problem, cut the supply at the source. This womans trial will be fun to watch, if it gets that far.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/ny_crime/2009/12/13/2009-12-13_straw_buy_eyed_in_times_sq_shooting.html?r=news
I think people are finally waking up to the ugly reality of taxes. There is hope in this country (thanks Barack!).
61% oppose nationalized health care “reform” pushed by dems (most cite taxes as the main reason).
Meanwhile, Messiah’s poll numbers have collapsed (mid forties) and he is now officially the most unpopular president in modern history at this point of presidency. 44% would prefer to have GWB back as president (i’m pretty sure next year it is >50%), Palin’s favorible numbers are now in statistical dead heat with the Messiah - and all this despite the State Media’s 24/7 adoration of the Messiah.
Tea parties started a real grassroot movement around the country and people are pushing anti-tax candidates for local school boards, assemblys and congress/senate. (Yeah, I know, they are not “real grassroots” as they are not funded by deranged billionaire and not coordinated by professional voter-fraud group or unions).
Local school boards are having much more difficult time for their annual tax hikes. Public sector parasites be warned - your cushy life is about to end.
PGC 103.
For once, I applaud rap and gangsta music. They should be mandatory in every Harlem public school.
““A Times Square bloodbath was narrowly avoided because the machine-pistol-toting thug who fired at a cop flipped the gun on its side like a character out of a rap video, causing the weapon to jam after two shots, law-enforcement sources said yesterday.””
“Theres another bidder, you better increase your offer”
RE and M&A are not that different after all.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8410617.stm
#104 jamil Oh great, that is just wonderful, we dump Obama to get that idiot Palin.
Americans are stupis face it,stupid left or right, republican or democrat. Americans are just stupid, dumb ass freaking stupid. We as a people deserve what Bush did to this country, and we deserve what Obama is doing.
The systm is completely broken;Americans are broken.
#100 njgator: I disagree> i belive more and more people will strategically default. Why not? For a lot of reasons, oh and the shame is gone too. Americans have no shame any more, none at all.
#104 Jamil
I’ll see your poll and raise you
* Believe in public option: 59.9 percent yes, 40.1 percent no.
* 86 percent of Democrats support the public option versus 57 percent of Independents and 33 percent of Republicans.
Here is my source, where did your poll come from?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5B20OL20091203
Essex-
Have not really been following it, but heard on the radio this weekend that Tiger is up to about 11 chicks. Unbelievable.
PGC- Wonder how many of those 33% of Republicans are against the public option because the idea came from the left.
I dig golf…but had to sell my clubs this year due to an injury…the game needs Tiger more than tiger needs golf. Too damn bad imho.
109 PGC
How about this?
CNN poll results:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2009/images/12/10/rel18h.pdf
61% oppose current healt care “reform”.
d2b: I don’t think marxism would get any more support if it were to come from GOP.
111 “Wonder how many of those 33% of Republicans are against the public option because the idea came from the left.”
Why would republicans support public option and shutting down private insurance? Is there anybody who actually believe that the Government would run healt care better than private sector?
PGC, from CNN poll:
12. As you may know, the U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would make major changes in the country’s health care system. Based on what you have read or heard about that bill, do you generally favor it or generally oppose it?
Dec. 2-3 2009
Favor 36%
Oppose 61%
No opinion 4%
For comparison, in November it was 46% support, 49% oppose. All this despite 24/7 State Media adoration.
I can’t recall this country ever having this sort of thuggery, ie pushing permanent radical changes to the society and altering the relationshop between the State and private citizens and all this despite 61% opposition. What the heck do they care what people think.
#15 Jamil,
An interesting follow up to CNN Q12 would be on what areas do you agree or oppose. As usual Ab0rt1on is front and center.
CNN Q15 on the public option is
Favor 53%
Oppose 46%
No opinion 1%
jamil says:
December 13, 2009 at 7:20 pm
111 “Wonder how many of those 33% of Republicans are against the public option because the idea came from the left.”
Why would republicans support public option and shutting down private insurance? Is there anybody who actually believe that the Government would run healt care better than private sector?
Jamil-
People have been voting against their own interests for years because they have been told to do so by their leaders of their own party. Amazing to see a whole new breed of deficit hawks out there that became aware that America is overspending on 1/20/09.
Insurance is never an issue as long as you have it.
P.S. jamil….are you some kind of A-rab?
117 pgc:
So if you are speeding 58 mph in 55 mph area, you are not allowed to critisize when the next guy speeds at 100 mph ?
Messiah has in his first year spent more money than earlier presidents in their time of office. Trillion here trillion there. Pretty soon we are talking about real money. Anyway, as I said, people are finally waking up to the ugly reality. This is evident in nationalized health care debate.
As for doing what people are told: Since State Media is doing 100% one-sided adoration of nationalized health care, how can 61% of voters oppose it? The scam is up, That reasonable centrist Messiah they voted for, turned out to be just the like ot hard-core marxist friek that people from the right warned.
“P.S. jamil….are you some kind of A-rab?”
and this is relevant excatly why?
Cause you might be a terrorist.
3b (63)-
Got that right. Man, that guy who was here a week or so back- whining about trying to buy a house in Montgomery, because no other school district could possibly be as good- really chapped my ass.
He was trying to keep up appearances with his Chinese pals but wanted to buy his house there on the cheap.
All these schools are brainwash factories, and the “blue ribbon” ones pump the kool-aid even harder. God knows, I feel like I have to deprogram my own kids once or twice a week. Every time they tell me they speak up for themselves or disagree with a teacher, I feel like it’s a little victory.
3b (63)-
Got that right. Man, that guy who was here a week or so back- whining about trying to buy a house in Montgomery, because no other school district could possibly be as good- really chapped my ass.
He was trying to keep up appearances with his Chinese pals but wanted to buy his house there on the cheap.
All these schools are brainwash factories, and the “blue ribbon” ones pump the kool-aid even harder. God knows, I feel like I have to deprogram my own kids once or twice a week. Every time they tell me they speak up for themselves or disagree with a teacher, I feel like it’s a little victory.
HE (93)-
Those were AC Milan fans, still pissed that he sold Kaka.
Jamil,
Also buried in your 61% number are about 12% on the left that oppose the plan because it does not go far enough.
#100 -Gator, many Republicans may be financially conservative and believe that a contract to repay debt is in fact a contract, legally, ethically and morally…so I am not surprised by your findings.
As far as strategic defaults I think the “banking system” is already figuring how to attach any other assets or future earnings to the debts.
Finally, are people really bragging in public that they spent too much on their CC and they figured out a way not to pay for something they actually bought and used? In the old days they called that stealing!!!
Teachers are pretty easy to spook. Most have only ever taught as a profession and they hate confrontation. Kind of the low hanging fruit of the confrontation scene.
127. Perhaps. Or maybe they bought something at 7% and the rate was upped to 30% and they felt that was somewhat unfair. Either way the system can suck it.
I didn’t understand the Montgomery house guy because you can absolutely buy a house in the 500,000 to 700,000 range in that area.
Schools are brain washing kids. I think they are giving my kids an anxiety condition over garbage and global warning! The only historical figure they learn about from 1st to 4th grade is Martin Luther King.
Jamil/PGC -
How ’bout this - Polls will generally show whatever the pollsters want them to show by utilizing leading questions.
Your debate on this is meaningless.
Oh and Jamil - you really think the Tea Parties are grassroots movements? Not funded by deranged millionaires or political hacks?
Hahahahahaha.
Fool.
One powerful group using “the people” to go after the other, currently more powerful group. Back and forth, happens all the time. Few useful fools in the middle utilized as cannon fodder. Left or right all the same sh*t, more things change, the more they stay the same.
Think I had an attack of the sas.
tHE ONLY WAY WE COULD HAVE A BETTER TOMORROW IS IF WE FREE OURSELVES OF THE SCUM THAT RUNS THIS COUNTRY TODAY.sTARTING HERE IN N.J.
#131 lisooh
Are you referring to this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fszM11k-Zjk
PGC - I love you, I actually thought of digging around for just that clip. :-)
I’ve been polled several times and have never NOT been asked leading questions. I quite like playing with them actually.
lisooh. You are right. CNN is well-known for its right-wing leanings /sarc
As for tea-parties. That is certainly 500 times more authentic than the leftist demonstrations, such as pro-amnesty/anti-war etc “movements” which are run and coordinated by well-funded marxist groups such as ACORN, which got their funding from George Soros, or big unions.
Also, a lot of the anger (from tea-party activists) is directed towards GOP too. It is one of the rare true middle-class grassroots movements in the country. More than a million people took part in the biggest tea party day few months ago. That’s why that billionaire Pelosi etc are so scared.
As I said earlier, the results of that anger will be seen in local elections (e.g. school boards) around the country. In federal and local level, it is also having huge effects and for the sake of this country, I hope current corrupt to the core congresscritters will be kicked out in 2010. Trillion is no big deal for dems, but for the actual tax-payers, ie middle-class Americans, it is a big deal to have pay for that.
I really hope in NJ school board elections and other local elections, the tax-and-spend hooligans are thrown out of office.
Changing the players does nothing if the game stays the same. Hasn’t anyone noticed that?
Essex and Clot,
You should replace NASCAR in your dead pool with pro golf, actually the women’s golf tour can’t be far off…..
#137 jamil
Rick Santelli had a great idea with the Tea Party. But it got hijacked by Dick Armey and the right wing media and he walked away from it.
Are the grass roots funding the bus tour? http://www.ourcountrydeservesbetter.com/about-us/board-and-staff/
NASCAR in the deadpool?
NHL & NBA before NASCAR.
SAS
Those opposing the health reform with mandates, public option, etc.: do you realize that the guy in the post #66 could be you?
“NBA”
It was not too many years ago when the NBA finals did not rate live TV coverage.
maybe we can add Nashville to that dead pool.
The music that comes out of their is crap.
It was good long before rodriguez stole that goat.
SAS
Is there a Retailer’s dead pool? I will take The Christmas Tree Shoppes.
Michelle Bachman said today that economists are telling Congress that the US will be flat out broke in 8 years.
I know thats not news around here but it does lead to a question. Is the collapse by design?
I think so.
I think we have another venue for a strumpet machine-gun demolition….please do so after my sister-in-law uses her holiday gift….
sorry link…
http://www.ameliasteasandholly.com/tearoom.html
Oh and as far as healthcare reform goes. LMAO. You got close to looting others for what you refuse to pay for yourself but it wont matter. The US is broke and we are going down in flames.
Your worst enemies are your neighbors that arent prepared. Get prepared, time is short.
Why don’t Canada, Netherlands,Germany and even UK (which is yet more dependent than us on the financial sector) go down in flames despite having universal health coverage?
Cobbler,
They will. Those countries militaries are subsidized by the US. They spend on healthcare what we spend on the military. If the numbers dont work the numbers dont work. Doctors cant see 100% Medicare and stay in business. Get yourself a coffin instead.
Yes, doctors can have 100% Medicare and stay in business - they just need to downsize their offices, office staffs, and do billing themselves. If they don’t feel like it the taxpayers could employ them as salaried professionals; 100K a year is still more than the average doc gets in any other country in the world.
Cobbler,
Ok they should do what you tell them for what you are willing to pay them. Good luck with that. I swear liberalism is a mental illness.
Top paid salaried (yes, salaried) doc at the super efficient cost effective Cleveland Clinic makes well over $1 million a year.
It’s about running hospitals efficiently rather than have docs compete for patients on site.
Eliminate the anti-trust exemptions for health insurance companies, force them to compete properly for customers just like any other business and standardize all billing and you’ll see a fortune being saved.
jamil - for someone who likes to play the cynic you are as gullible as they come.
CNN is just 1 thing, a 24/7 news outlet desperate for ratings. Nothing to do with left or right. Post a poll, get lots of talking heads in to discuss the poll. Post another, different poll, get more talking heads in to discuss what has changed. Rinse, repeat.
Limbaugh, Beck, all the same sh*t. Rhetoric for ratings. If nobody listened, they’d change their tune until somebody did.
As for the tea nonsense.
Yes there are lots of angry people out there and lots of slow stupid people angry with no idea quite how to direct it. If you are wealthy and well connected and looking at ways to prod the current power holders no group is easier or cheaper to direct. Give them a snappy name, some t-shirts a few signs to hold up and something to direct their anger at and their happier than pigs in sh*t. They now have a purpose and voila, you have created a “grassroots movement”.
Grim,
This could be worthy of mention on Monday:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nolpda/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_8410000/8410722.stm?
134 is not me… sorry.. I’m just finishing up charts at work… besides… you should *know* by now that it’s not me… :)
sl
Kunin ang iyong ulo sa mga libro na iyon Matt … Kung iyon ang winner, kami ay maaaring magkaroon ng isang boto para sa 15 mga libro na kailangan mong basahin?
84.Mocha says:
December 13, 2009 at 2:23 pm
83.
… I’m starting to think there is a conspiracy going on in new jerey
Just one?
This is truly epic Thanks for making this available :)
This is my first time i visit here. I found so many interesting stuff in your blog especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your articles, I guess I am not the only one having all the enjoyment here! keep up the good work.
I know this is really boring and you are skipping to the next comment, but I just wanted to throw you a big thanks - you cleared up some things for me!