Actually, it’ll take another bubble.

From MarketWatch:

Recovering lost home equity will take years

I recently asked the folks at HSH Associates, the popular and oft-quoted Pompton Plains, N.J., financial publishing house, to run some numbers, and their findings aren’t terribly encouraging.

“It’s going to be a long time coming,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH, about the prospects for rebuilding “lost” equity.

I put quote marks around the word “lost” because it’s my opinion that you can’t lose what you never had. So over and above what you paid for your house, your transaction costs and whatever you’ve put into the place in the way of improvements, you haven’t lost a dime. At least not until you are ready to sell.

This much we know: Prices have fallen 32.6%, peak to trough, between 2006 and the third quarter of 2009, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller home-price index, which tracks changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions.

Going forward is pretty much a toss-up, but HSH is assuming a flat real-estate market with no increase in value through June. Then, from July through August 2011, a period of 14 months, prices are projected to increase at a rate of about 2.5% a year. From then on out, the company is figuring on a yearly gain of 3%.

With these percentages in mind, let’s look at what happens to the value of a $200,000 house purchased at the top of the market in July 2006:

By the time the market hits bottom — at least, the bottom according to Case-Shiller — that property was worth a paltry $134,800, a decline of 32.6%. Using HSH’s assumptions, the value of our imaginary house won’t get back to the $200,000 forked over by our fictitious buyer until — are you ready for this? — July 2022.

That’s right: It will be 12-and-a-half more years until this house is once again worth what was originally paid for it.

Again, it’s worth pointing out that this is just an educated guess. Even Gumbinger concedes it takes a “real leap of faith” to project this far into the future.

“We could end up running through a whole other recession cycle,” he said, noting that the U.S. economy tends to fall into a business cycle contraction every 10 years or so. “And house values could move up more strongly or more weakly, depending on any number of circumstances.”

But there it is, in all its cold, sobering reality — a dozen more years just to get back to ground zero.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

621 Responses to Actually, it’ll take another bubble.

  1. Jim says:

    First!

  2. Essex says:

    Greetings from sunny Ft. Lauderdale!

  3. yo'me says:

    Cheap and plentiful credit has powered the U.S. economy for decades. But since the financial crisis of 2008, America has gone on a drastic debt diet. Just as families are paying down credit-card debt and building up cash reserves, businesses large and small are learning to operate in an environment where cash once again is king.

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/235392

  4. Jim says:

    This is just food for thought, but given B.O.s current policy tilt I think it is a valid question. Redistribution of wealth, national health care, gays in military, upcoming VAT tax- is B.O. a sozialist? Here is what is listed on Wikipedia:

    Sozialism refers to the various theories of economic organization which advocate either public or direct worker ownership and administration of the means of production and allocation of resources….Sozialists generally share the view that capitalism unfairly concentrates power and wealth among a small segment of society that controls capital and derives its wealth through a system of exploitation. This in turn creates an unequal society, that fails to provide equal opportunities for everyone to maximise their potential, and does not utilise technology and resources to their maximum potential nor in the interests of the public.

  5. safeashouses says:

    That marketwatch article describes what happened to a former neighbor of my parents perfectly. He bought a townhouse at or near the peak of the last bubble in 1987. Prices collapsed and my parents bought the same model townhouse in 92 for 35% less then he paid. His townhouse value didn’t return to what he paid for it until 2001.

  6. Essex says:

    The largest transfer of wealth was the banking bailout!

  7. Final Doom says:

    The HSH people quoted above make pretty rational projections, but those projections are premised on the assumption of a stable housing market making a correction based on historical trends.

    What the housing market is now is none of those things. My fear is that the economy at large has been so jury-rigged and pumped full of helium that many elements of a traditional housing recovery are no more than reflections in a funhouse mirror.

    What’s different:

    1. Securitizations Gone Wild. There’s never been a housing recovery in an environment in which massive amounts of mortgages are securitized, then used as the foundation for a giant casino of related side bets, in the form of a blizzard of derivatives. So far, efforts to stabilize both the MBS and the derivatives have been riddled with fraud, deception and denial. How does housing recover when financing mechanisms are dissolving? Oh…don’t forget that the US taxpayer has now become the most reliable mortgage insurer on the planet, and that the entire secondary mortgage market (Phony, Fraudy, Ginnie) is an insolvent gubmint bankruptcy/bailout vehicle that will probably completely implode and leave the entire US mortgage market with no way to recapitalize itself.

    2. Be a sucker; buy a house. Has there ever been a time in which so many Americans either consciously or subconsciously equate buying a home with financial ruin? This leads to:

    3. Housing as consumption, not investment. As the investment value of housing is increasingly exposed as a specious concept, the idea of housing as simple consumption takes root. Again, this puts us in uncharted water. Too bad this water is probably full of scores of large, vicious, angry sharks.

    4. Jobs. Anybody got one? Anybody creating them? Anybody feel good about the one they have? Like Roubini said a couple of days ago, an economy based upon maintaining super-high levels of consumer spending within an environment of wage suppression is headed to a bad place. Ultimately, people buy houses with mortgages, and mortgages get paid from paychecks. No jobs, no housing recovery. Period.

    The fundamental nature of the whole housing game is changing, and we won’t know the full extent of the change until we can begin measuring the sector against a broad economic recovery. However, it’s reasonable to assume that investment capital- both corporate and household- will flow at that time into havens of least resistance and risk. Hell, given a low rate of household formation and an overhang of inventory, housing may completely fail to recover, even while the rest of the economy is well into a boom.

    I believe Japan is the modern model of the consequences of a nation consumed by fraud, inability to act and mass denial. Japan is now headed into its third decade of a crushing deflationary recession, so why should things here follow a fundamentally-different path? Perhaps the biggest tradeoff in jury-rigging a torpid economy are simply that you don’t get The Grapes of Wrath, but the consequence of that is you get decade after decade of listless, zombie-like, flatlined growth.

    Given the above, my call is still for 20-40 years in the wilderness.

  8. Jim says:

    6. Essex says:
    April 9, 2010 at 6:50 am

    The largest transfer of wealth was the banking bailout!

    Yea, but that has either been paid back or will be paid back to the government. Won’t the government even make a profit on that?

  9. Essex says:

    Not sure, ask Doom.

  10. Final Doom says:

    sx (9)-

    Last time I checked, nationalizing banks, encouraging malinvestment and diverting investment away from more legitimate activities is not the definition of “profitable”.

  11. Confused in NJ says:

    New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie isn’t laughing about a teachers union’s memo that hints of his death.

    The memo is the latest salvo in a war of words between Christie and the union about wage and benefits concessions. The Record obtained the Bergen County Education Association memo that includes a closing prayer:

    “Dear Lord this year you have taken away my favorite actor, Patrick Swayze, my favorite actress, Farrah Fawcett, my favorite singer, Michael Jackson, and my favorite salesman, Billy Mays. I just wanted to let you know that Chris Christie is my favorite governor.”

    Association president Joe Coppola says the “prayer” was a joke and was never meant to be made public.

    Christie spokesman Michael Drewniak said there’s nothing professional about the group.

    I guess the teachers think the Governors Death is necessary “For The Children”.

  12. Essex says:

    So in other words we’re screwed! Poor me another mojito bartender!

  13. Essex says:

    Christie is a sideshow.

  14. Final Doom says:

    Yeah, but as a sideshow, he’s great entertainment.

  15. Yikes says:

    breaking news in Philly – appears there was an incident of road rage this morning somewhere in the Philly burbs … a woman was found in her car in rush hour traffic with a bullet.

    she’s on her way to the hospital per ABC

  16. yo'me says:

    Standard & Poor’s 500 .SPX companies’ first-quarter profits are seen up 36.8 percent versus a year ago, which would be a second straight quarter of year-over-year profit growth, according to Thomson Reuters data. The fourth quarter marked the first of year-over-year gains since 2007’s second quarter

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6381NJ20100409

  17. Jim says:

    10. Final Doom says:
    April 9, 2010 at 7:19 am

    sx (9)-

    Last time I checked, nationalizing banks, encouraging malinvestment and diverting investment away from more legitimate activities is not the definition of “profitable”.

    Doom,
    Sorry, my mistake. I forgot that with the new math being used the government will also save money with national health care.

  18. John says:

    ChiFI I am your ALFA DOG – Check out AMBAC stock, up 65% in afterhours baby. Made a few hundred million PROFIT> now we know August 1st you are pouring me a beer for sure.

    I am far better at reading distorted and manipulated financial statements than your are.

  19. John says:

    Bank Bail Out? US Govt issues two year bonds at 1/2 of 1% then lends it to banks for one year and receives an 8% profit.

    Can I bail out a bank. Please someone lend me a trillion at 1/2 of 1% interest so I can lend it out at 8%.

  20. Final Doom says:

    “Before anyone gets excited about same store sales, please ponder the effect store closings had on comparisons.

    31 Retailers File For Bankruptcy In 2009

    Penn Traffic:11/18
    Hackett’s Department Store: 11/10
    InkStop: 10/1
    Sacino & Sons: 9/11
    Samsonite: 9/2
    Escada: 8/13
    Finlay: 8/5
    Bashas: 7/12
    Crabtree & Evelyn: 7/1.
    Best & Co: 6/26
    Eddie Bauer: 6/17
    Arcandor: 6/9
    Oilily: 5/28
    Anchor Blue: 5/28
    Door Store: 5/27
    Filene’s Basement: 5/4
    Bi-Lo: 4/19
    Z Gallerie: 4/10
    Ultra Jewelry: 4/9
    Big 10 Tires: 4/2
    Zounds Hearing Aid Centers:3/30
    Al Baskin Co: 3/23
    Drug Fair: 3/18
    Strasburg-Jarvis: 3/11
    Joe’s Sports & Outdoor Stores: 3/4
    Everything but Water: 2/25
    Ritz Camera; 2/22
    S&K Famous Brand: 2/9
    Fortunoff: 2/5
    Bruno’s Supermarkets: 2/5
    Gottschalks: 1/14

    The above list thanks to: Retail Insights

    Are Retail Sales Up?

    Supposedly retail sales are up 4 months in a row. They aren’t. Same store sales may be, but that is a different matter.

    Some of those stores may still be in business. However, those chains that are still in business closed many poorly performing stores, boosting same store sales figures in the remaining stores.

    Moreover, same store sales are invalid because of store closings across the board, not just in chains involved in bankruptcies.

    Improvements over horrendous numbers from a year ago are hardly unexpected.

    Finally, Easter Sales shifting into March from April certainly added to the effect.

    State Sales Tax Collections Tell The Real Story

    State tax collections are a far better measure of spending than same store sales. Please consider Retail Sales Rise: Where? Let’s Take a Look

    That report is from February 28, 2010, arguably a bit out of date. Nonetheless, state tax collections are horrid.”

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/04/marketwatch-says-us-consumers-are-back.html

  21. Final Doom says:

    John (18)-

    I’d bet a couple of beers you’re better at creating them, too.

    “I am far better at reading distorted and manipulated financial statements than you are.”

  22. Nomad says:

    So how does AMBAC pop in after hours? Won’t the common shareholders get wiped out?

  23. John says:

    Shares of Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK
    rallied almost 80% in premarket action Friday on heavy trading after the financial guaranty insurer said it swung to a fourth-quarter profit of $558.1 million.

  24. John says:

    Nomad it is way up!!! After hours is a bad term. NYSE is open 9:30 am to 4:00 pm.

    Those are not official trading hours, those are just NYSE trading hours. For instance Direct Edge, the ttrading hours are 8am to 8pm five days a week.

    When you enter a sell or buy order you can say exectute “after hours”. In this case you could have bought ABK at 7:30pm last night via something as simple as an online broker.

  25. njescapee says:

    Southernmost air show sure to be spectacular

    Many eyes were aimed skyward Thursday in Key West as the Navy’s Flight Demonstration Squadron — better known as the Blue Angels — conducted practice maneuvers over the island and adjacent waters. Similar sights are expected today, as pilots and crews prepare for this weekend’s Southernmost Air Spectacular at Boca Chica Field.

    The practice flights are a little like a parade preceding the arrival of a circus in town. They generate excitement and heighten anticipation — particularly in a town where the Navy has such deep roots. After all, Key West was a Navy town long before it was a tourism town.

    While the Blue Angels are officially a recruiting tool — our guess is that they’re effective in that respect — their wow factor also puts them high on the scale of great entertainment. We’re glad to once again be on the squadron’s calendar. After all, the Angels are in much demand — they perform for about 15 million people each year — and getting a spot on their schedule is not easy. Thanks goes to NAS Key West commander Capt. Steven Holmes for making it happen.

    The squadron was last here for the Blue Angels In Paradise air show in 2004, and before that in 1988. A few longtime locals recall the Angels wintering at Naval Air Station Key West in the late ’50s and early ’60s. One of our readers brought in a Citizen clipping from that era showing Vic Lang, manager of the Key West Aquarium, presenting the team with a mascot angelfish.

    And while the Blue Angels are clearly the star of the show, this weekend’s Air Spectacular also features an impressive lineup of aerial entertainment ranging from Key West’s own aerial acrobat, Freddy Cabanas, to the 101st Airborne Screaming Eagles Parachute Demonstration Team.

    Other demonstration teams include the Gladiators Strike Fighter Squadron, the Sundowners Fighter Composite Squadron, the Air Force Viper West F-16 Demonstration Team and the 58th Airlift Squadron’s Rat Pack C-17A Demonstration Team. These are joined by six nonmilitary aerial acrobatic teams.

    The aerial action gets under way at 10:30 a.m. both Saturday and Sunday. The Blue Angels take to the skies at 2:30 p.m., followed by a 3:30 performance by The Dave Aaron Band. Directions, information on parking and security rules are posted at http://www.wingsoverkeywest.net.

    So we urge you to bring a lawn chair, sunglasses and lots of sunscreen for one of the best shows you’re likely to see in the Keys. Go Navy!

    — The Citizen

  26. Cindy says:

    http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=10531

    We need to do something about “these little devils.”

  27. Mr Hyde says:

    Yikes,

    Re solar

    If you use evacuated tube solar thermal with good sighting, you can easily get water above boiling. The systems are usually designed to limit water temperature to about 180F though.

    AN example:
    http://www.siliconsolar.com/solar-evacuated-tube-collectors.html

  28. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/197862-flopping-latest-shady-homeselling-practice

    Flopping: The latest shady homeselling practice

    This is a new one on me.

  29. Cindy says:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/197872-is-relief-on-the-way-for-residential-housing

    Never posted anything by these guys but I thought you would like the charts.

    Check out payrolls

    This chart, payrolls, makes it painfully clear that a real recovery in housing, if any, may be years away.

  30. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Who needs a polie department? Just go ut and buy guns.

    http://www.wkyc.com/news/local/news_article.aspx?storyid=133951&catid=3

  31. Cindy says:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/08/AR2010040805132.html

    How to reduce the risk on Wall Street? Make the banks pay.

  32. Final Doom says:

    hype (31)-

    Simple solution to a complex problem. This worked pretty well west of the Mississippi for over half a century.

    I like it.

  33. Final Doom says:

    How does any new banking oversight or regulation ever pass when the real root problem is that the banks own the gubmint?

    Johnson, Roubini, et al have terrific ideas for combatting TBTF; too bad none of them will ever turn into law, or even policy.

  34. Final Doom says:

    Besides, Chris Dodd’s brain has already been removed and transplanted into a hamster.

  35. Bystander says:

    Need some help. I am studying fundamental risk exposure management. Not my forte but I am forcing myself to learn. Trying to understand Taylor series and effects on portfolio. I know the following things:

    Portfolio is delta neutral
    Gamma is 50 per $ per $
    Vega is 25 per % (not 25%)

    The market tanks and underlying asset drops by $3 and volatility increases by 4%.

    My understanding of Taylor is that a positive gamma should cause gains. How do I prove this in a Taylor calc?

    Please email psup at yahoo dot com. Mucho appreciation.

  36. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    So I read last nite that West Orange wants to raise property taxes like 12-13%. Sorry, no link.

    Just think of the tax raises next year, UGH! So much for fiscal responsibility on the Federal, state and local level.

    Clot, full on board with you, 20-40 years in the wilderness.

  37. Juice Box says:

    John did you get your PRI?

    It’s time to sell….

  38. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom hype,

    from the comments. It seems one person there gets it.

    No one here realizes that the cops come after the violence is over? You never have been protected from anything. You never will this is just a sickness in your mind that you depend on others for what you are responsible for. The Judge is correct it is you responsibility and duty as an American citizen to be responsible for your self. No amount of tax money spent changes this. A thousand deputies doesn’t change this. The cops come when you call after the crime is done.

  39. Veto That - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda' says:

    7 – Doom, nice analysis. Did you write that?

    It’s nice to see you produce a coherent and logical outline. This is a pleasant change from your usual practice of bypassing all reasoned explanation and moving directly to a detailed description of post apocolypse life on what was previously referred to as earth. Plus the fact that you spilled more than four consecutive parapraphs without referring to shooting someone is an impressive feat in itself.

    Also, i took it as a positive that you are gradually moving your outlook from a ‘Sudden Final Doom Implosion Event’ to a more mild but uneventful ‘Grapes of Wrath Slog’. This alone is reason enough for all of us to go all-in long S&P futures.

  40. Juice Box says:

    Biggest crock of crap ever..

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Two former Fannie Mae executives are blaming competitive pressures for the company’s decision to back riskier mortgages that fueled the housing bubble.

    Daniel Mudd, Fannie Mae’s former chief executive, and Robert Levin, the company’s former chief business officer, are due to appear Friday before a panel examining the roots of the financial crisis.

    In written remarks, Mudd says that by 2006, it was clear that the move into risky loans was “not a fad” and something that Fannie Mae “could not ignore.”

    And Levin says that “we were concerned about losing relevance in the marketplace,” as Wall Street companies issued mortgage securities and stole market share.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ExFannie-Mae-executives-to-apf-716659017.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

  41. 15 cents says:

    31 Retailers File For Bankruptcy In 2009

    If there are 2 stores in a community and people spend $1000.Each store made $500 each on sales that year. 1 store folded,remains 1 store.If the remaining store made $750 in sales the next year.It still a 50% YOY same store up in sales.Do you look at this as positive?Over expansion and now due to consolidation sales show a a positive number?I think the correction shows a positive psych.You need a correction to get rid of the excess to move forward.

  42. Let me tell you…absolutely my No.1 performer right now. What a superb performer. Just fabulous!

  43. Mr Hyde says:

    No link…

    bloomberg shows the 3 month yield on Greek debt at 15%!

    Lets see greece man up and repudiate its debt, drop out of the euro and start printing Drachma again!!

    Does greece survive the weekend? If so does it make may 1 intact

  44. Mr Hyde says:

    Who has the biggest exposure to Greek debt? I know France holds a huge amount of it. Do we see another forced AIG type bailout of US banks to cover Greek loses?

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    OT Alert—

    Got Interns? Apparently, they aren’t popular with the unions, so Obama is moving to prohibit the use of unpaid interns.

    Think I’m kidding? This from one of his DOL minions:

    “If you’re a for-profit employer or you want to pursue an internship with a for-profit employer, there aren’t going to be many circumstances where you can have an internship and not be paid and still be in compliance with the law . . .”

    Nancy J. Leppink, acting director wage and hour division (as told to the New York Times).

    Now, let me interpret for those who haven’t spent much time inside the beltway. DOL will audit and sanction companies that use unpaid interns to do things that a paid employee could do. The goal is to force companies to do more hiring by restricting the scope of an intern’s “duties.”

    Proof of this will be in the form of a rulemaking or other advisory from DOL that appears to limit what an unpaid intern can do.

    Further, DOL is implicitly encouraging unpaid interns to go back and sue the companies where they interned.

    Note that this isn’t necessarily to protect poor interns—government and nonprofits will be exempt. Rather, this is to put pressure on for-profit employers to hire. Nothing more.

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [39] hyde

    One of my favorite bumperstickers said

    “I’d rather be tried by 12 than carried by 6”

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Hard as one tries, you just can’t make this stuff up:

    “Scores of Carlsberg workers walked off their jobs in protest Thursday after the Danish brewer tightened laid-back rules on workplace drinking and removed beer coolers from work sites, a company spokesman said.

    The warehouse and production workers in Denmark are rebelling against the company’s new alcohol policy, which allows them to drink beer only during lunch hours in the canteen. Previously, they could help themselves to beer throughout the day, from coolers placed around the work sites. . . .”

    /snip

  48. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom,

    Is it accurate to say that Castle Rock v. Gonzales boils down to the police not having a constitutional requirement to protect someone?

  49. make money says:

    Clot has been talkig about this for over a year now.

    Mark to fantasy rules by imaginary accounting.

    They should really offer a course in B-school that teaches imaginary accounting. Majority of firms use it. I can just see a kid market his resume with “well trained in hidding losses from regulators, investors and CEO” hire me and you’ll always beat the street estimates.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a2xng6J3TAdU

  50. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom,

    Warren v. District of Columbia would also seem to lead to the same conclusion to a lay person.

  51. Veto That - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda' says:

    “bloomberg shows the 3 month yield on Greek debt at 15%!”

    John, Bond of the Day!

  52. Fiddy Cents on the Dollar says:

    Just out of curiosity….

    If they manage to legislate some form of VAT, would it be applied to the purchase of an existing home?

  53. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom 48

    My new aspiration is to be a danish warehouse or production worker.

  54. John says:

    Veto That – Lawrence Yun ‘The Panda’ says:
    April 9, 2010 at 10:21 am
    “bloomberg shows the 3 month yield on Greek debt at 15%!”

    John, Bond of the Day!

    Don’t trust greeks bearing gifts

  55. Final Doom says:

    veto (40)-

    Yes, I wrote it. No, my thoughts on voting with a bullet and the rights of the armed individual have not changed. Those ideas just didn’t have a place in what I wrote.

    I also don’t think American society will tolerate a Japanese-style, multidecade slog through mud. We will shoot, fight and riot simply to self-medicate and make ourselves feel potent.

    If you go long the SPY, God bless you…and don’t say you weren’t warned.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [49] hyde

    Yes.

  57. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    More OT crap: Navy tells submariners to step outside if they want a smoke.

    “(CNN) — Smoking and submarines don’t mix.

    That’s the message the U.S. Navy is sending after announcing that smoking will no longer be permitted below decks on its submarines effective December 31.

    “This policy was initiated for the health of the sailors who choose not to smoke,” said Lt. Commander Mark Jones, spokesman for the Commander Naval Submarine Forces in Norfolk, Virginia. “It is unfair for them to be exposed to the unhealthy side effects of secondhand smoke.”

    Jones said the submarine force conducted a study in 2009 on nine different submarines covering the four different classes of subs. In that testing, it found nonsmokers were being exposed to the effects of secondhand smoke. . . .”

    Something about being in proximity to large amounts of carcinogenic and nuclear materials tells me that even the nonsmoking sailors will find this amusing.

  58. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom,

    So in essence, the police exist to transport prisoners, act as local revenue generators (through fines), and investigate crimes. The enforcement aspect is in appearance only and at their discretion.

    Seems like a good reason to disband a large % of police forces

  59. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom 59,

    come one now, just the right dose of radiation actually improves your immune system!

  60. Mr Hyde says:

    Greece just got downgraded by Fitch. Party on!

  61. Painhrtz says:

    Nom but the reactor is shielded. those subs have better air quaility systems then some sterile manufacturing sites I have been to.

    In other politically correct BS news there is this

    http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=ap-siouxnickname

    I guess ND can now be called the run away pansies. I loved there nickname and jerseys. Plus it was in no way shape or form insulting to native americans. Redskins on the other hand slightly deragotory, but hey that is tradition NFL blah, blah, blah. NCAA should focus on fixing the BS football national championship not this.

  62. NJGator says:

    Mayor Fried Re-Does Municipal Tax Math: 11% = 2.75%
    Friday, April 9, 2010
    Yesterday’s report in the Montclair Times, “$69.9 million budget, 11 percent tax hike OK’d,” which our readers discussed at great length here, rattled Montclair Mayor Jerry Fried. Fried feels “11% tax hike” misrepresents how the town’s revenue shortfalls and state funding cuts actually impacted the municipal budget. Fried sent this note to Baristanet:

    It would be helpful to the public and less inflammatory to explain in your post that the Municipal portion of your property taxes is 25% of your tax bill. The massive “11% increase” (along with huge cuts in funding) represents a 2 3/4% increase on your property tax bill. The school increase (about 4.4%) will represent a 2.6% increase and the County’s approximately 2% increase adds another 1/2%.
    Infuriating as this is to all of us who have watched the Governor cut funding for education, it would amount to about a 6% increase. If one were to write a newspaper article about the causes of the increases, one would mention the massive cuts in State funding and a huge drop in revenue because of the economic downturn. It would also be useful to report that along with this increase there will be many Municipal layoffs, reductions in services and restructuring (some of which will help with creating a sustainable budget in future years) and, of course, huge cuts to our schools necessitated by the Governor’s insistence on rescinding the tax on the wealthiest taxpayers.

    Does anyone feel any better now?

    http://www.baristanet.com/2010/04/jerry_fried_montclair_tax_hike_11_governor_christie_nj_funding_cuts.php

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [49] hyde

    I thought once about trying to advance a legal tort theory that would override that principle. The theory goes that, if you live in a state that has discretionary licensing, and you apply for a license, the state assumes a heightened duty for your safety.

    This is because the state has denied you the right to defend yourself, thus you are told that you must rely on the safety provided by the state. And if they are going to make you use their product, you should be able to sue if the product is defective.

    There would have to be injury to have standing, so the best case for standing and maximum press coverage is to find someone suing on behalf of themselves or a dead family member that applied for a permit, was turned down, and later suffered injury (or death) due to crime.

    Now, I don’t see this ever getting by the high bars that state courts have put up that disclaim responsibility for our safety (or sovereign immunity for that matter). But the purpose would be to force the state to play those cards, to publicly deny responsibility for the public’s safety while, at the same time, denying the public the right to defend itself.

    A judge in New Jersey once said when denying an applicant a permit that “he had no more of a right to self defense than anyone else.” To me this seems like an astonishing statement, but it is consistent with democratic dogma. What it also says is that he has no greater right to avoid victimization by criminals, that it is his obligation to stay in the pool with the rest of the potential victims.

    This is the essence of civic responsibity in the eyes of the democrats—they believe it is fundamentally unfair for someone to fare better than the slowest, stupidest, unluckiest, or least skilled among us. It is a speed limit on living one’s life.

  64. make money says:

    Could be a very good time to visit Greece this summer. It should be dirt cheap assuming you know how to move in a room full of roaches.

  65. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [65] redux

    I forgot to note that a prerequisite is that the state denies you the permit. Duh!

  66. Against The Grain says:

    #59 – Good, every day I was in the military in the early 80’s I was discriminated against because I didn’t smoke. If you are the type of person who is susceptible to a drug addiction, you don’t belong in the miltary anyway

  67. make money says:

    Sovereign Nation Default Friday over/under is well under way.

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [64] Gator,

    Noticed that you (or Baristanet) keep parroting the lie promulgated by the unions and democrats.

    Christie never rescinded the millionaire’s tax. He wasn’t governor when it expired by its own terms.

    What he said, prior to its expiration, was that he would not raise taxes.

    If Corzine and the dems wanted it so badly, they could have renewed it; they had the votes. But they were either (a) afraid of looking like tax-and-spend dems (why, I don’t know, hard to hide that), or (b) decided very cynically to hamstring Christie by allowing it to expire, thus making his job harder.

    If anyone has a different explanation of the dem’s actions, or wants to support the proposition that Christie reduced taxes on millionaires in a fashion that makes some semblance of factual and logical sense, I’m all ears.

  69. safeashouses says:

    I keep running into greedy grubber owners. Keep your krap shacks!! I hope your taxes go up at double digit rates for the next decade.

    Of course if I find a house for sale with a reasonable owner, then I hope we are at the bottom of the housing market and the BIG MAN in Trenton gets a hard cap property tax increase of 2.5 to 4% in place.

  70. John says:

    With these percentages in mind, let’s look at what happens to the value of a $200,000 house purchased at the top of the market in July 2006:

    By the time the market hits bottom — at least, the bottom according to Case-Shiller — that property was worth a paltry $134,800, a decline of 32.6%. Using HSH’s assumptions, the value of our imaginary house won’t get back to the $200,000 forked over by our fictitious buyer until — are you ready for this? — July 2022.

    That’s right: It will be 12-and-a-half more years until this house is once again worth what was originally paid for it.

    Again, it’s worth pointing out that this is just an educated guess. Even Gumbinger concedes it takes a “real leap of faith” to project this far into the future.

    “We could end up running through a whole other recession cycle,” he said, noting that the U.S. economy tends to fall into a business cycle contraction every 10 years or so. “And house values could move up more strongly or more weakly, depending on any number of circumstances.”

    But there it is, in all its cold, sobering reality — a dozen more years just to get back to ground zero.

    Now, let’s look at a house that was purchased for $200,000 in January 2000 and follow the value line, from start to peak, to trough, back to peak. Based on the Case-Shiller index, this property reached its top value in July 2006, when it was worth $413,040. If the buyer sold at that exact time, he would have netted a tidy little gain of 106% and change.

    But say he didn’t sell. Not only did he love the place, but he also didn’t know what the future held, so he stayed there, blithely unmindful of what was about to happen to the value of his castle. Too bad, because by April 2009 — the bottom, according to Case-Shiller — the place was worth “only” $278,500.

    The buyer was never underwater. He still was ahead $78,500, less, of course, his buying and improvement costs. But he still had “lost” — there are those quote marks again — a whopping $134,540. And that brings us to the question: When is my house again going to be worth what it was before the bottom dropped out?

    Using HSH’s projections — drum roll, please — this $200,000 house purchased at the turn of the century won’t be worth $413,000 again until December 2021. That’s not quite as long as it will take the guy who bought at the top of the market to regain what he “lost” but it’s still going to be nearly a dozen years — 11 years and 11 months from this writing, to be exact — until we’re back to the top of the house-value mountain.

  71. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    31.

    H,

    Thats exactly the way it should be. Hopefully we will see that here in NJ. Wait until folks like me are deputized. There wont be any criminial activity or Communists around.

  72. jcer says:

    NJ income tax is almost 9% for million dollar earners. It is like squeezing blood from a stone. Millionaires could easily jump states to NY, PA, or CT and probably still easily keep their source of income.

  73. Jamal Van Jones says:

    So in essence, the police exist to transport prisoners, act as local revenue generators (through fines), and investigate crimes. The enforcement aspect is in appearance only and at their discretion.

    I agree, obviously, the presence of a police force does not deter crime. Go Galt!!

  74. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    44.

    Hyde,

    Im so sick of hearing about Greece. I predict they will give us a Sunday night collapse just like BFF.

  75. Essex says:

    Man it is nice down here today. Folks live in a modest middle class neighborhood. Fifteen break-ins over the past few months.

  76. jcer says:

    vs 3% for PA, 5% for CT, and 6.8% for NY. I think NJ is taxes to the point that raising income taxes will just snuff out the state’s ability to retain employers. How about eliminating some aid to NJ cities and a few trenton employees?

  77. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [75] jcer

    Actually, that depends a lot on where they derive their income. Right now, if they work in NY, I can’t see how they avoid at least an NY level of tax. Essentially, they pay the higher of NJ or NY tax.

    The only way relocation works is to move to PA if the income is derived from NJ. Then the tax compact kicks in.

    This is especially helpful for deferred income and retirement plan contributions. They are also taxed at the PA rate, not NJ, and if one retires to a state where it won’t be taxed on withdrawal, that is massive savings on the contributions and growth.

  78. Jamal Van Jones says:

    Monsanto has turned soci@list!

    http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=viewArticle&code=RUS20100405&articleId=18499

    “Siddiqui’s record at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and his role as a former registered lobbyist for CropLife America (whose members include Monsanto, Syngenta, DuPont and Dow), has revealed him to consistently favor agribusinesses’ interests over the interests of consumers, the environment and public health (see attached fact sheet). We believe Siddiqui’s nomination severely weakens the Obama Administration’s credibility in promoting healthier and more sustainable local food systems here at home. His appointment would also send an unfortunate signal to the rest of the world that the United States plans to continue down the failed path of high-input and energy-intensive industrial agriculture by promoting toxic pesticides, inappropriate seed biotechnologies and unfair trade agreements on nations that do not want and can least afford them.”

  79. safeashouses says:

    Yesterday I saw 2 guys with buzz cuts wearing white dress shirts and black ties sitting in a sedan in front of my neighbor’s house. I couldn’t tell if they were gov agents or criminals (they were smoking so I ruled our Mormons and Jehovah Witnesses). Turns out they were door to door salesmen.

  80. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    IRVINGTON — Facing multi-million dollar deficits due to cuts in state aid and reduced revenue from other sources, the township has sent out layoff notices to 20 police officers and 10 firefighters.
    http://www.nj.com/news/local/index.ssf/2010/04/irvington_sending_layoff_notic.html

    Better get armed in Maplewood.

  81. Mr Hyde says:

    Jamal,

    I never said get rid of them entirely. But i highly doubt we actually need 70 police chiefs, one for each town in bergen county? how about 1 county wide organization? There are additional lawyers of duplication between state police, local police, sheriffs etc.

    The cost savings in removing the endless layers of management and bureaucracy would be huge.

  82. Juice Box says:

    re: Greece

    I would think Eastern Europe Latvia, Romainia etc and South Eastern Europe Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Kosovo are going to be much much worse off than Greece.

    When I was over there at the end of 2008 their housing boom crashed just bad as Florida and they have all of their morgatage debt denominated in Euros which are held by European Banks.

    Obama was just over there last week and you can bet he was horse trading dollars for troops.

    http://www.radio.cz/en/article/126768

  83. hughesrep says:

    82

    The Sears Home Improvement scamsters have been out in force lately going door to door. My German Shephard cleared them out of my doorway pretty quick.

  84. Mr Hyde says:

    from 72

    Is Case-Shiller really calling april 09 bottom?????

    April 2009 — the bottom, according to Case-Shille

  85. Jamal Van Jones says:

    But i highly doubt we actually need 70 police chiefs, one for each town in bergen county? how about 1 county wide organization? There are additional lawyers of duplication between state police, local police, sheriffs etc.

    I agree with this since you are talking about eliminating bureaucratic red tape. I don’t know enough to comment about the ideal level of management needed but it is surely less than the present level.
    Your previous statement stated that the police are effectively useless against crime and citizens are better off defending themselves. This warmed the c0ckles of my Galtian heart.

  86. safeashouses says:

    #86 hughesrep

    LMAO. These guys were selling power washing and basement waterproofing. Have no idea what company they were supposed to be selling for. If the basement needed waterproofing I’d ask my neighbors and other locals who did they use. no way I’d hire a door to door salesman’s firm.

  87. Veto That - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda' says:

    gold breaking through today.

  88. Mr Hyde says:

    jamal,

    Your previous statement stated that the police are effectively useless against crime and citizens are better off defending themselves.

    Consider me somewhere in the middle. if you dont take steps to provide for your own security you are setting yourself up to be a victim.

  89. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [76] jamal

    “I agree, obviously, the presence of a police force does not deter crime. Go Galt!!”

    Actually, for some areas, notably rural ones, that makes perfect sense. A mimimal police force for those purposes, and a reasonably well-armed populace, along with remoteness and a lack of proximity to large numbers of potential offenders, and it would work nicely.

    Urban areas? Bad idea. Even though they are known for doing little, police presence has an effect. My dad used to refer to his uniform as his “smiling suit” because when he showed up, suddenly everyone was smiling—“no problem here officer.”

  90. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [83] al

    what Christie needs to do is to start appointing some judges that will actually issue carry permits, rather than come up with reasons not to.

    I also suspect that a run on the police departments to issue gun purchase permits will send the necessary signals.

    None for me though. Don’t need that hassle. Besides, I now have my arsenal, so I can drop the PA resident bit and get my NJ driver’s license (ugh).

  91. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    Do you have a URL for the intern issue, or a PDF you can e-mail. I believe you have the address. If not, Grim or Gator can get it to you.

  92. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    gold breaking through today.

    Yeah cause the EU and The USA are going to print some more money to bail out Greece.

    Might as well print up another trilion or so to take care of the rest of the PIIG countries.

  93. Shore Guy says:

    So, Justice Stevens has made it official, I hear.

  94. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [94] shore

    I don’t. It was a widely reported quote from the Times, and you can probably link back to the story.

    Bottom line: if you have interns, best have a policy so they can’t easily come back and sue for wages later. That is the biggest risk, and the sort of thing that invites a DOL investigation. Any competent attorney versed in employment law issues can draw one up.

  95. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [96] shore

    Yep. No surprise, but who will become the court curmudgeon?

  96. John says:

    Never buy a IPO from KKR or Apollo. Those private equity firms can smell when to unload their crap on the public.

    Juice Box says:

    April 9, 2010 at 11:18 am
    John, IPO of Toy’s R Us

    right before the company goes up in smoke too.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/KKR-Bain-preparing-for-fresh-rb-825233281.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=4&asset=&ccode=

  97. NJGator says:

    Nom 70 – I have not been parroting that line, and Stu has been openly disputing it there. Our Mayor however trots it out frequently.

    There are others trying to out the Mayor for this too. See recent post on Montclair Unmoderated (something similar may have been posted on Baristanet by the same person)…

    This was a posted comment by Mayor Jerry Fried to baristanet.com as a response to a report about the 11% Increase in proposed budget 2011.

    “It would be helpful to the public and less inflammatory to explain in your post that the Municipal portion of your property taxes is 25% of your tax bill. The massive “11% increase” (along with huge cuts in funding) represents a 2 3/4% increase on your property tax bill. The school increase (about 4.4%) will represent a 2.6% increase and the County’s approximately 2% increase adds another 1/2%.
    Infuriating as this is to all of us who have watched the Governor cut funding for education, it would amount to about a 6% increase. If one were to write a newspaper article about the causes of the increases, one would mention the massive cuts in State funding and a huge drop in revenue because of the economic downturn. It would also be useful to report that along with this increase there will be many Municipal layoffs, reductions in services and restructuring (some of which will help with creating a sustainable budget in future years) and, of course, huge cuts to our schools necessitated by the Governor’s insistence on rescinding the tax on the wealthiest taxpayers.”

    The following is a lie and everyone should email the Mayor and explain to him that as a public official, he should not lie to his constituents.

    “and, of course, huge cuts to our schools necessitated by the Governor’s insistence on rescinding the tax on the wealthiest taxpayers.”

    A (D) led Senate, (D) led Assembly, and former Gov Jon Corzine(D) let the “Millionaires Tax” expire before Governor Christie was even in office. I am not defending the position of not taxing the wealthy, I am only pointing out that the Mayor of Montclair is using lies and deception for his own failures and it should be pointed out to him. There is no accountability within our local Gov’t. The excuses and lies need to stop here and now.

    jfried@montclairnju sa.org

  98. Juice Box says:

    JOhn – they stripped the place to the bones (property is a different holding company now) and started selling food out of the place. I would not step foot inside a Toys R US for fear I would be shot for taking the last barbie doll off the shelf.

  99. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [94] shore

    Page 8 of the advisory. It doesn’t mention interns but these are the standards.
    http://wdr.doleta.gov/directives/attach/TEGL/TEGL12-09acc.pdf

  100. NJGator says:

    FD – I’m pretty certain your “outing” on Baristanet was by someone who at least lurks here. Beware. There’s a Benedict Arnold in your midst :)

  101. John says:

    They are coming out with an Engineer Barbie soon. Barbies new hot profession is Engineer as women can be smart too. She even has little glasses she wears when she is an engineer. I may have to get it for my girls.

    Juice Box says:
    April 9, 2010 at 11:57 am
    JOhn – they stripped the place to the bones (property is a different holding company now) and started selling food out of the place. I would not step foot inside a Toys R US for fear I would be shot for taking the last barbie doll off the shelf.

  102. Essex says:

    92. In the sticks they actually deputize ordinary guys and make them constables.

  103. make money says:

    gold breaking through today.

    Good old shiny has been as consistent as a Tiger Woods put surronded by all the hoopla.

    I can’t wait to see how everyone will chase the physical when EU implodes and market starts US downgrade talks.

  104. hughesrep says:

    106

    One of the local part time police in the town I grew was also the part ime enforcer at the roller rink on Friday and Saturday.

    He was also the only guy in Noweheresville, OH. to have a jewfro, his name was Dike. Lots of laughs.

  105. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    107.

    Make,

    I loaded up at 1050. Glad I went heavy on silver. I was hoping for another pullback so I could load up again. The days of cheap metal might be over.

  106. chicagofinance says:

    No. The bank bailout has largely been repaid. The large losses are Fannie, Freddie, AIG and Detroit. Especially Detroit is a pointless exercise, but no one is pounding the table on that one….

    Essex says:
    April 9, 2010 at 6:50 am
    The largest transfer of wealth was the banking bailout!

  107. Essex says:

    Nice day to be alive. Why did I leave FL again??

  108. chicagofinance says:

    I hate the whole no-TP-in-the-toilet thing…..how can a country where they can’t flush paper possibly be able to balance their budget…

    make money says:
    April 9, 2010 at 11:08 am
    Could be a very good time to visit Greece this summer. It should be dirt cheap assuming you know how to move in a room full of roaches.

  109. make money says:

    No. The bank bailout has largely been repaid.

    Albani,

    Lowering their borrowing costs to 1% at the cost of the society and allowing them to buy treasuries and bonds at 4% to shore up their balance sheet all while allowing mark to fantasy accounting standards is the real form of the bailout.

    In a few short years when inflation rampant runs rampant and the middle class savings are wiped out we will be able to measure the exact cost of bailout nation.

  110. make money says:

    113 Chifi,

    BYOTP!!Problem solved.

  111. John says:

    AIG will pay back. GM will pay back.

    Fannie, Freddie and Chrysler are money pits.

    ChiFi you still betting on a BK by ABK by Aug 1st?

    chicagofinance says:
    April 9, 2010 at 1:06 pm
    No. The bank bailout has largely been repaid. The large losses are Fannie, Freddie, AIG and Detroit. Especially Detroit is a pointless exercise, but no one is pounding the table on that one….

    Essex says:
    April 9, 2010 at 6:50 am
    The largest transfer of wealth was the banking bailout!

  112. chicagofinance says:

    “I Never Knew I Was Pregnant and Living Through Armageddon”

    WSJ Op-Ed from yesterday….

    OPINION
    APRIL 8, 2010
    Armageddon Will Be Televised
    By JOE QUEENAN

    For decades, proponents of government-funded public television have argued that the free market will never support the kinds of thoughtful, intellectually nourishing programming that PBS provides. Yanni live in concert. Deepak Chopra lectures. DooWop on tour. And of course, Andre Rieu holiday specials.

    But the strongest argument in favor of public television has always been the exquisitely tasteful, intellectually stimulating documentaries that are a staple of the PBS lineup. The Ken Burns series about the Civil War or the history of jazz. Scintillating Nova programs about quarks, black holes, the big-bang theory. Illuminating profiles of Joan Baez, Peter, Paul & Mary, the Weavers. Commercial television, so it is argued, simply cannot come up with this kind of captivating, thought-provoking entertainment. It would never occur to the low-brows at A&E or Showtime to broadcast James Taylor, live on stage, singing “Fire and Rain.” These philistines simply don’t have that kind of vision.

    But in recent times, this argument has lost much of its force. Increasingly, both cable and network television have gone out of their way to expand the horizons of the TV documentary, producing programs that not only rival, but in some ways surpass, the best fare served up on PBS.

    A case in point is the riveting documentary “Animal Witness: The Michael Vick Case,” which aired a while back on Animal Planet. This was a thoughtful, balanced attempt to dissect the pit bull subculture and contextualize the events that led to the Atlanta Falcons’ star quarterback winding up in prison. The only criticism—a minor one—is that no animal witness got to present his or her point of view regarding the abuse they suffered. Daring, unnerving and provocative, “The Michael Vick Case” easily ranks right up there with the finest documentaries ever aired by PBS.

    The same is true of “I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant.” This fascinating show, which airs on the Discovery Channel, chronicles the real-life experiences of women who never suspected that they were carrying a child right up until the moment they gave birth. Some women thought they might simply have a very large tumor; others that they had been victimized by a bad pizza. Inspiring, compassionate and service-oriented—filled with lots of handy tips for what specialists might refer to as the obstetrically oblivious—”I Didn’t Know I Was Pregnant” is the kind of daring, cutting-edge programming that the big-wigs at PBS would give their eye-teeth to get on the air. If only they had the guts.

    Even those of us who adore PBS—I, for one, can think of nothing more fun than to curl up in front of a nice warm fire and watch Bill Moyers discuss the meaning of evil—have to admit that somewhere along the line public television allowed commercial television to steal its thunder. Where are the PBS specials about re-enacting French Foreign Legion basic training camp? Where are the PBS specials about surviving attacks by polar bears, anacondas or crocodiles? And where are the PBS specials about the inherent family tensions that inevitably arise in the bounty-hunting community?

    One of the great voids commercial television has filled is in the field of apocalyptic studies. Where PBS likes to focus its attention on safe, sedate, almost namby-pamby subjects like global warming or the destruction of the Amazon, commercial TV has devoted many of its resources to more pressing subjects like the imminent extinction of the human species.

    It was a 2008 History Channel documentary about the Mayan Calendar that first drew the public’s attention to the fact that Dec. 21, 2012 will probably be the last day in human history—meaning that 2011 will be the last year any of us will need to do any Christmas shopping. Watching that program again this week, I noted, nervously, that Dec. 21, 2012 is the date arrived at independently by both the ancient Mayans and the I Ching, and that the Welsh sorcerer Merlin is also on board with the belief that human civilization will end late in 2012. The Mayans and the I Ching guys could have had their numbers wrong, but Merlin’s verdict kind of sealed it for me.

    Happily, some Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse buffs believe that the magnetic disturbances erupting at both poles on that date do not mean that all civilization will disappear, but rather that we will move into a new and better phase of the great human drama. That’s why I can’t wait to see the documentaries that air on A&E, The History Channel, the Military Channel and the Discovery Channel in 2013. Things like “I Never Knew I Was Pregnant and Living Through Armageddon,” “When Extraordinarily Large Numbers of Rats Attack,” and “Secrets of the Post-Apocalyptic Hoarders.”

    PBS is going to need a lot heavier artillery than “Antiques Roadshow.”

    Mr. Queenan, a satirist, is the author, most recently, of the memoir “Closing Time” (Viking, 2009).

  113. chicagofinance says:

    NO! No flushie-TP-albani

    make money says:
    April 9, 2010 at 1:16 pm
    113 Chifi, BYOTP!!Problem solved.

  114. Juice Box says:

    Chicago – sure TARP is being repaid through the front door, meanwhile the thievery continues though the back door.

    Quote:
    “In a report dated February 6, 2009, the Congressional Oversight Panel concluded that the Treasury paid substantially more for the assets it purchased under the TARP than their then-current market value. The COP found the Treasury paid $254 billion, for which it received assets worth approximately $176 billion, for a shortfall of $78 billion.”

    Kind of like when the teller is supposed to give you twelve dollars change from your twenty dollar bill on an eight dollar purchase and instead gives you a five and two singles back and you are ok with it.

  115. make money says:

    someone posted this on Zerohedge.

    Ok, let me get this straight…. The IMF will bailout Greece with US taxpayer money ? Last time I looked at the national deficit we were approaching the -12.5 trillion mark. How can a country that is on track to lose 1.7 trillion this year possibly bailout a country that only needs several hundred billion? The bigger question I have is why wouldn’t we bailout California first, the 7th largest econonmy in the world before we worry about Greece, the 27th largest economy in the world? Everybody seems to worry about Greece yet we have 47 States on the brink of disaster, Cities about to go bankrupt, and a National debt we can never re-pay. It seems to me we are trying to divert the blame of the upcoming global meltdown on the little freckle faced kid down the block. When the currency ponzi house of cards comes crashing down, we can say it was the Euro zone that caused the crisis and sent us back over the cliff. I honestly don’t believe people will be that stupid and when reality sets in it will cause nothing but turmoil for the generous US taxpayers that came to the rescue and attempted to save the world. Again the only qustion I have at this point is which act of speed will break the sound barrier first? The hands of the currency shell game being played by the FED and the IMF or the hands of our own national debt clock?

    All in all, It might be a good idea to store some physical.

  116. Mr Hyde says:

    Hype,

    GS is supposedly short Greece through CDS and the like.

  117. chicagofinance says:

    Parse out the data by institution….

    Juice Box says:
    April 9, 2010 at 1:28 pm
    Chicago – sure TARP is being repaid through the front door, meanwhile the thievery continues though the back door.

  118. Mr Hyde says:

    Hype,

    Any bailout now is just a temporary one. They wont be able to meet their funding needs later int he year and will need another bailout.

  119. chicagofinance says:

    make: zero value…what do you think the IMF is? If anything, the Germans and the French are desperate to keep the US out.

    make money says:
    April 9, 2010 at 1:30 pm
    someone posted this on Zerohedge.
    Ok, let me get this straight…. The IMF will bailout Greece with US taxpayer money?

  120. Shore Guy says:

    Was he a former NY or NJ governor?

    Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan (CNN)
    The chief of staff of the interim Kyrgyz government, which took over after President Kurmanbek Bakiev fled the capital, accused the president Friday of stealing the country’s money when he left.

    “The state coffers are almost empty,” Edil Baisalov told CNN

    snip

  121. Mr Hyde says:

    make,

    I believe it requires unanimous consent for the IMF to bailout greece. Its would be political suicide for Merkel or any other german politician to agree to the IMF stepping in. I believe germany is coming up on elections as well.

    I think any bailout this weekend is just more rumor mongering like the last dozen or so bailout rumors were.

  122. Mr Hyde says:

    Shore 125

    He stole the money in order to fund his campaign to replace Christie

  123. John says:

    I love a good bailout!!!

  124. Juice Box says:

    re: Kyrgyzstan – say bye bye to Manas air force base. Putin is already backing the new leader.

    http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/kyrgyzstan_and_manas_air_base.html

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [104] gator

    “Beware. There’s a Benedict Arnold in your midst :)”

    Isn’t he running for re-election to the Senate in Pennsylvania?

  126. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [129] Juice Box

    I expect to be seeing WH press sec. Goebbels, er, Gibbs, spin this in one of two ways:

    1. It’s Bush’s fault; and/or
    2. We reassessed and decided we didn’t need that base anyway.

  127. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [125];

    Who counted the money before the new guy got there?

    “I walked in and the money was already gone, I swear…”

  128. Jim says:

    How go people going to live with all the rate and tax increases that will come into effect during the next couple of years? There are only so many pieces the pie can be cut in to. Meanwhile the U.S. through the IMF will bail out Greece?!

    City Proposes Water Rate Increase of Nearly 13%

    http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/09/city-proposes-nearly-13-rate-increase-for-water/

  129. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [133] gator

    Some things are okay once their little digestives systems can handle it. Our D2 gets a lot of raw fruit, and some veg, but things that are digestible.

    No sushi though

    What I find stupid are the folks that do this with their pets, and there are even those that put their pets on raw vegetarian diets. No wonder the dog goes crazy and mauls them.

  130. Mr Hyde says:

    Jim,

    I am no finance guy, but i would be surprised if the IMF bails out greece because it would require germany to so up to the bailouts.

  131. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [134] jim

    Ordinarily, I’d say that utilities are next up for nationalization, but those are already largely nationalized, esp. water. So you simply have to lump it.

    I want to find a company producing rainbarrels and invest in that.

    Better yet, start a sales and installation business. At these rates, rainbarrels make pretty good economic sense.

    Who’s in?

  132. Juice Box says:

    re: #133- gator she has a blog.

    http://zoevblog.com/

  133. NJGator says:

    Juice – Of course she does. What self-respecting Montclair narcissist wouldn’t?

    Stu, BTW, wanted to start-up his own blog a few years back after reading some of the nonsense posted online by our friends. It had such promise. Too bad he gave up afetr only 2 posts.

    http://imustrevealeverythingaboutmyself.blogspot.com/

  134. Mr Hyde says:

    Shocked! Shcoked I tell you!!!!

    “Few if any predicted the unusual and rapid destruction of real-estate values that occurred,” Robert Levin, former executive vice president and chief business officer of Fannie Mae told a financial-crisis inquiry panel.

    “In hindsight, if we and the industry as a whole had been able to appreciate the nature and extent of the crisis, it is clear we all would have conducted our business differently during this period, but we like everyone else were surprised by the unprecedented extent of the economic crisis.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fannie-official-surprised-by-extent-of-crisis-2010-04-09

  135. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    113.

    Jim,

    “How go people going to live with all the rate and tax increases that will come into effect during the next couple of years?”

    The way to crush the bourgeoisie is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation.

    Vladimir Lenin

    Maybe Montclair should erect a monument to that guy. The goal of socialism is communism and 1 guy with a gun can control 100 without one.

    Never give up your guns.

  136. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    137.

    Nom,

    What happened to the plan to co op a gas station and undercut the market once the SHTF?

  137. Jim says:

    Nom,
    If you could rig up a toilet to flush with rain water I think you’d have something. Of course your city would go haywire if they found out. They have that reaction when you rig up a sump pump to discharge into the sewer.

  138. Mr Hyde says:

    AL,

    1 guy with a gun can control 100 without one.

    Only so long as the 100 allow him to do so. Similar to the shooting in upstate NY where the guy walked into a classroom and shot 12 people.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE5324JP20090403

    if even 3 or 4 charged him at once he would have probably gone down.

    The man with the gun rules only due to the inaction of the people.

  139. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    143.

    Were lucky that there is a lot of fresh water in NJ. Problem is the iron content.

    I ran the numbers for the photovoltaic roof shingles last year. Just doesnt work for me but not that far off. I dont have enough southerly facing roof coupled with the fact that my roof is brand new.

    I have little doubt that when it comes time to replace my roof I will incorporate renewable energy into the plan.

  140. Mr Hyde says:

    Jim 143

    Even been to the virgin islands? using rain water cisterns to feed the toilets, the sinks and the shower is how 90% of water is supplied for domestic use.

    Such systems already exist and are commercialized.

  141. njescapee says:

    134, Jim, a lot of the old houses in Key West have cisterns to store rainwater. Could help keep water bill under control.

  142. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [142] AL

    Plan is still there, and there are co-ops operating in various places.

    The idea isn’t to undercut the market when TSHTF, but to undercut it all the time. Sure, the advantage would be huge if there was a SHTF event, but the pop only would last for as long as the supply in the tank held out.

    Further, in an area like NJ, it would be extremely hard to get the numbers to work, and there is the whole no-self-pump thing (though a co-op may be a way around that).

  143. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Found a site with quotes by L. Neil Smith. FD would love this guy.

    here is a quote that is definitely in the Doom parlance:

    “Those who sell their liberty for security are understandable, if pitiable, creatures. Those who sell the liberty of others for wealth, power, or even a moment’s respite deserve only the end of a rope.”

  144. Jim says:

    Hyde and njescapee,
    I hadn’t heard of the cisterns used to store rainwater before. However I’m sure if people wanted to use them the State of NJ would find some way to either tax it or outlaw their use.

  145. Final Doom says:

    gator (104)-

    He’s welcome to drop by my office anytime for a chat. Best he pack a lunch, too.

    When it all starts going to black, my fervent hope is that I’m hardened enough to simply point, aim & shoot just like it was a throwaway camera.

  146. Barbara says:

    133.
    Gator
    “Why do people do this to their kids?”

    it replaces religion. all my friends who are atheist/agnostic have all kinds of food restrictions based on political, environmental or wacky/novel approaches to personal health (with little science to back it up).

    Its the old “If there wasn’t a god, we would make one up” thing. In the DNA.

  147. Final Doom says:

    And, gator, my partner is way worse than me. He’d just use that guy’s head as a toilet brush.

  148. Final Doom says:

    John (105)-

    Before or after you put the stripper pole in their bedroom?

    “Barbies new hot profession is Engineer as women can be smart too. She even has little glasses she wears when she is an engineer. I may have to get it for my girls.”

  149. Barbara says:

    139.
    Gator

    Best. Blog. Ever.

    I bookmarked it. the two posts were plenty. there was nothing more to say

  150. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    “When it all starts going to black, my fervent hope is that I’m hardened enough to simply point, aim & shoot just like it was a throwaway camera.”

    lol. Classic. This comment should be entered into the HOF.

  151. Final Doom says:

    juice (138)-

    She should also start a blog on how to render your son a dickless retard.

  152. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom,

    Remember, its all about desensitization and dehumanization…..

  153. Barbara says:

    In the over educated and under employed world of vegan athiest liberals, the breakdown is as follows:

    Fries and Coke = Satan
    Walmart = Limbo
    West of the Allegheny = Hell
    Apple Store = Church
    Brooklyn = Heaven

  154. NJGator says:

    Barbara – I am sorry, but I must correct you. Walmart = Evil.

  155. Barbara says:

    ok, walmart Evil, Target, limbo

  156. Mr Hyde says:

    Clot,

    if you are the kinder gentler half of the operation, then i want to hear what the other half has to say!!!

    get them on the blog!

  157. Barbara says:

    for the record I posses many of these traits but I eat whatever I want in moderation and so do my kids. Apple store rocks.

  158. Anon E. Moose says:

    Doom[151];

    Go pop your meds. I say this because I care.

  159. Veto That - Lawrence Yun 'The Panda' says:

    Barb, 159
    where is the use of the word ‘organic’?

  160. Barbara says:

    Veto

    Organic = Kosher

    good catch

  161. Final Doom says:

    moose (164)-

    Go pop your aunt. I say this because I don’t care.

  162. NJGator says:

    Barbara 161 – Yes. And it must be pronounced tar-JAY.

  163. Barbara says:

    168.
    Gator
    I updated to the SNL lady’s “Terrrrgit”

  164. NJGator says:

    Oops that should have been tar-ZHAY.

    Sorry folks!

  165. Essex says:

    For some reason when I am in NJ I could care less what I eat. Perhaps it is a subtle death wish. A little like driving on the Parkway or swimming in local waters.

  166. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [141] Al

    Another bumper sticker I liked was on a doorway in, get this, the Village!

    It said “Fear the government that fears your guns.”

  167. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [106] Essex

    ” In the sticks they actually deputize ordinary guys and make them constables.”

    Great. Now I can’t get that image of Don Knotts out of my head.

  168. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [106] essex

    Bad enough that I kept humming the new Montklair National Anthem (имн Советского Союзаfor) the last day.

    I musta drank some kool aid somewhere.

  169. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Something about an education bubble??? This would be laughable if it weren’t true.

    “BOSTON — A Massachusetts college has a new plan to give students an edge in getting admitted.

    Bristol Community College is about to launch a plan that would allow students to skip the waiting list if they agree to pay double the school’s tuition.

    The school is teaming up the Princeton Review. As part of the deal, the for-profit company would invest $2 million in the college, which includes a new facility in downtown New Bedford.

    The program would specifically apply to courses designed to train health care workers and cost about $8,500 a year.

    College officials said it’s a creative way for the school to meet the growing demand for that kind of training.
    But the head of the state’s Community College Council is already blasting the program saying allowing students who can pay more to go to the head of the line goes against the idea of public education.”

    What I find astonishing is that there is so much demand for what is essentially the 13th Grade.

    Besides, it presupposes that the people who would pay are both (a) wealthy enough to do so, and (b) not smart enough to get into one of the many, many other colleges in Mass.

  170. Essex says:

    175. My grandfather had a constable badge, a homemade sawed off shotgun, and a gold front tooth. How’s that for an image?

  171. Ben says:

    “I loaded up at 1050. Glad I went heavy on silver. I was hoping for another pullback so I could load up again. The days of cheap metal might be over.”

    When you look at the price of gold 5 years from now, you’ll be referring to these as the days of cheap metal. I still remember when the days of cheap metal were when gold was at $500. I would get annoyed if I didn’t get in on a pullback. Ever since 2008, I haven’t cared at all. Gold is still ridiculously cheap and every fundamental reason that made it rise in the past 10 years has only gotten stronger by a full order of magnitude.

  172. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [178] essex

    If the shotgun was homemade, why did he have to saw it off?

  173. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    Nice pump job by the PPT to end the day. No stopping the markets now. Uncle Ben’s 0% interest rate is really cooking a nice new bubble.

    Dow 20,000 here we come!

  174. SG says:

    Californian Bullet Trains Planned With Chinese Know-How

    The Chinese already helped out with building the Transcontinental Railroad in the 1860s, in the form of thousands of emigrants who helped lay the tracks. 140 years later, and California has sought help from China again for building these bullet trains, with 20 per cent of parts originating there. Not to mention the knowledge involved in building bullet trains, which China’s got spades of. Despite the US being so vast, train travel hasn’t really caught on yet—with cars and planes proving more attractive. Bullet trains would definitely help suck people into the “greener” way of traveling, so I think this sounds like a great plan.

  175. Essex says:

    180. It was so cute that way. Accessible and concealable.

  176. Painhrtz says:

    Hey Barb I guess I’m an outlier

    Athiest, hunter, drink scotch, feed my nieces and nephews whatever they want (in moderation), detest liberals, own guns, believe in abortion (for the stupid, but feel I shouldn’t have an opinion on it since I don’t own the equipment)

    Partly a nihlist

  177. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Despite all it’s strength the little engine couldn’t make S&P 1200.

  178. Ben says:

    Does anyone in the media take note of the fact that the Dow is now just as high as it was when housing prices hit their peak and people were blowing all their fantasy equity?

  179. Painhrtz says:

    SG high speed trains with chinese parts and this was the only thing that popped into my head

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEZjzsnPhnw

    for the record I have been on the Maglev in Shanghai. German built and faster than Clot running for Knob Creek after Bernanke speaks. 300KM/hr fast and smooth as the whiskey going down.

  180. Barbara says:

    painhrtz,
    I have nihilistic tendencies too but have become more of an absurdist in my old age since procreating.

  181. Ben says:

    “If you could rig up a toilet to flush with rain water I think you’d have something. Of course your city would go haywire if they found out. They have that reaction when you rig up a sump pump to discharge into the sewer.”

    I know some people that have a sewer grate in their backyard. They think it’s the greatest thing in the world. You can dump all kinds of stuff down it without anyone knowing.

  182. SimoneNY says:

    Breking News!
    Stocks rise on more signs of growth; Dow tops 11K…
    Should be interesting to see C on the 19th

  183. SimoneNY says:

    Oops Breaking sorry

  184. SimoneNY says:

    LOL 11K, too much for all Greece BS talk … btw as this is a RE blog … bidding wars back to GR and similar towns …

  185. Ben says:

    “I guess the teachers think the Governors Death is necessary “For The Children”.”

    I started teaching this year. I think it’s unfair to the teachers that they get lumped in with the actions of their union members. The union is nothing more than 4 or 5 people in each district pretending to represent hundreds of people. I’m going to estimate that about 85% have zero involvement with the union and a good chunk of them are sick of the union . It doesn’t make much sense not to join because they garnish your wage for 85% of the dues even when you don’t join.

    If you do join, they give you a union card that lets you get discounts on all kinds of products/services. That’s how you get some of your money back. In the end, it makes financial sense to just officially join for the 15% of your dues they didn’t take yet which works out to a little over $100. You get more than your money back when you go to buy a TV or a computer and get the union discount. Realistically, the only reason I joined was because I was going to buy a new TV and laptop this year.

    The real thing I am annoyed about is that the one single thing the union got removed from the latest state legislation was an opt out option for teachers who didn’t want to participate with the pension fund. They force us into a pension that is bankrupt so that the older teachers, who are usually the head of the union, can keep the ponzi scheme going long enough for themselves to retire.

    I’d gladly take a pay cut of $1000 right now if I didn’t have to put in my stupid pension payments.

  186. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Hey Nom,

    Willkie Farr: Defers Incoming Associates to 2011, 3Ls Pissed by Late Notice

    http://abovethelaw.com/2010/04/willkie-farr-defers-incoming-associates-to-2011-3ls-pissed-by-late-notice/#dsq-comments

  187. jcer says:

    I found out about a new NJ money grabbing scheme by our state government. Beware of changes to the yield to pedestrian laws(April 1st), some jerk cop gave me a ticket today for stopping and then turning while a pedestrian was crossing(Tried to explain to him I was lost and I had somebody following me thinking he’d cut me a break, no such luck). 2 points, $200 fine(100 goes to trenton!), totally ridiculous and worse than a speeding ticket for 14mph over the limit, higher fine and insurance will go up!

  188. jcer says:

    If we’re to build trains, i don’t think the chinese are the ideal partners realistically the French and Germans are who we should go to. Bombardier could build us something like the AVE or TGV using their existing technology. Now if only we could get around the FRR!

  189. mw802 says:

    Agree with SimoneNY – this market ain’t going down. All the hoopla about bid to cover, foreign buyers out of treasuries – you name it – its all a momentary blip and we’re back to the races. As for real estate – there is the occasional bargain but I see nothing worth buying at a reasonable price. Everything has been contrary to my expectations and its time to throw in the towel. I can even see DOW 14K again – dare I say “buy now or forever be priced out of the market”. If you’re contemplating buying a house – do it. Sense of ownership far outweighs the couple of hundred you may save every month renting something that’s not really you. Time to buy – don’t fight the FED.

  190. Nomad says:

    137 Comrade,

    FYI Many of our utility companies are foreign owned. NJ AM Water – Germany

    Met a guy who does a lot of work in the utility industry – he told me about the level of foreign ownership of US utility companies – something over 45% I believe. Asked if there are any capital improvement requiements, funds, etc that foreign owners must hold in the US – not much.

    Wonder how much of our critical miliatry componentry we get from abroad. Again, just another reason our country needs it’s manufacturing base back.

  191. yo'me says:

    Did not make the 3 point shot for dow 11k

  192. House Whine says:

    195-jcer-Thanks for the heads up- I knew about this new law and honestly I totally agree with it. I walk a lot and I am tired of motorists ignoring the crosswalks. That said, I do think that the severity of the fine is ridiculous-$50 fine should be sufficient and I don’t think points are warranted at all. They really went overboard on this- I can see them making a ton of money on this one.

  193. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    193.

    Ben,

    Good to see a teacher than doesnt believe in plastic unicorns and also realizes that you wont see your pension anymore than I will see social security.

    Now if you tell me you have a FID than it will be icing on the cake.

  194. NJGator says:

    Montclair wrestles with $5.1 million budget gap

    MONTCLAIR — Montclair’s township manager has proposed cutting 13 employees and slashing more than $1 million in what he calls “non-core services” to begin to make up a $5.1 million budget gap.

    This budget — in its first draft — would raise taxes by 11 percent. But township officials at Tuesday’s council meeting made it clear the cuts won’t stop there.

    “It’s a blueprint,” said 1st Ward councilman Rich Murnick. “It’s something that we have to look at and make our changes.”

    The biggest roadblock in coming up with a reasonable budget is a $3.2 million drop in revenue, a 17-percent decrease from last year, said the manager, Marc Dashield. The township is getting less money from the parking authority, interest on investments, fines paid to the municipal court and fees from construction permits. Also, the state cut more than $800,000 in aid. Meanwhile, total expenses have risen 2.8 percent, he said.

    “We can’t afford to do everything that we once did,” Dashield told the council members, adding that more layoffs and cuts are expected.

    Township officials are asking the unions representing municipal employees to agree to furloughs and health-benefit contributions, Dashield said.

    “I’m just challenging them to really understand that this is a time for all of us to come together and make some shared sacrifices,” he said in an interview yesterday.

    Nick Lewis, the 3rd Ward councilman, didn’t mince his words: “This process is just going to be hideous.”

    “There isn’t any magic revenue we’re going to get,” he said at the meeting. “We can’t print money in the basement.”

    http://www.nj.com/news/local/index.ssf/2010/04/montclair_wrestles_with_51_mil.html

  195. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    197.

    That music to my ears the problem is I dont believe it. If we indeed create a new housing bubble on the back of a hyper manipulated stock market I would have a tough time not selling my home and renting.

  196. jcer says:

    I was ok with it when I thought I was getting a non moving violation and small fine. I agree pedestrians and drivers alike need follow common sense, but this is unduly harsh on drivers. I stopped and then proceeded to turn the pedestrian was 150 yrs old and walking like a snail, there was no real risk of hitting him as he saw me stop and then proceed to turn. But according to the law I now must stop and wait for him to cross the street and then wait for traffic to stop going the other direction can we say small traffic jam? I’m not going to state this was one of my finer driving moments but it was not really unsafe and it is totally bogus that this violation is more costly than a multitude of other things that are actually unsafe.

  197. mw802 says:

    I don’t believe it either – the numbers don’t add up. Deficits, budget shortfalls, legacy costs – I see all of it – but it does not translate into anything one can profit from. Has anyone here on this blog actually purchased a home at a great discount as a consequence of “seeing” overvalued real estate and is now better of? Believe me I can doom with the best of em – but I have been wrong. I was short the dollar, short the S&P, sold my house in 2005 – well you know the rest of the story.

  198. jcer says:

    I don’t know about short the dollar this is a race to the bottom and anyone can win. The market is artificially inflated due to government action and home price are quite a bit less than a few years ago and I see it continuing. NJ/NYC market is somewhat different in the scope of the population and the limited GOOD inventory, most of it is really bad.

  199. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    MW,

    If you shorted the above and sold in 05 then you are sitting pretty. Why not take some cash and buy farmland that is leasable to a local farmer. Of course not in NJ.

  200. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    206.

    Jcer,

    Yeah, the circa 1976 bilevel and the POS capes really put a damper on things.

    Real Estate would be better of if mother nature destroyed those houses and cleared the lots.

  201. mw802 says:

    206

    I’m not questioning anyone’s motives. I saw the debacle coming also, I took actions to protect myself – I now see that the “work” I went to so I am “protected” is simply not worth it. I should not have sold, moved, went thru all the hoopla to prevent ruin. The future indeed looks dire – but by hook or by crook – things seems to go forward and every hurdle whether it be Greece, price of oil, mark to market, etc., it all amounts to nada in the aggregate – certainly nothing one can profit from.

  202. mw802 says:

    207

    I sold – moved out of state – bought land and built and again sold at a handsome profit – built again and its still not worth it. My property taxes went from 18k in NJ to 5k now – its still not worth it!

  203. All "H-Train" Hype says:

    802 – Where do you live now?

  204. mw802 says:

    211

    Vermont – its beautiful, pristine, sane but no Costco.

  205. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    210.

    MW,

    Im not sure I agree. Lets see if I have this right.

    You took all profits before it crashed real estate, stocks etc. Moved to low cost area and still have income.

    If you have gold, guns, food, and ammo whats to fret about?

    This could lead to an unsavory inflation/deflation debate so I will leave it at that.

  206. Yikes says:

    John says:
    April 9, 2010 at 8:23 am

    ChiFI I am your ALFA DOG – Check out AMBAC stock, up 65% in afterhours baby. Made a few hundred million PROFIT> now we know August 1st you are pouring me a beer for sure.

    I am far better at reading distorted and manipulated financial statements than your are.

    impressive, johnny

  207. mw802 says:

    213

    I sold at a handsome profit twice – I have no guns or amo and have income and savings. I fret about having disrupted my life for five years with two kids in school. My contention is that the fear I had translated into actions which are not worth it – I’m sitting pretty – but the benefit is marginal – its just not worth it. I think I could have used the same energy I did in establishing a new functioning lifestyle by adapting what I had.

  208. NJGator says:

    200 House Whine- agree with you that the fine might be a little too high, but I think points are completely warranted. This is clearly a moving violation – no different than running a stop sign.

    We live right near a county road and compliance with the cross-walks is pretty much non-existent. I always felt I was risking my life everytime I wanted to walk to the local pharmacy or convenience store. Even if I were with the baby stroller or the dog, cars wouldn’t stop for me.

  209. chicagofinance says:

    Yikes: what does this activity have to do with the financial condition of AMBAC? Also, read what the earnings are….

    Yikes says:
    April 9, 2010 at 5:28 pm

    John says:
    April 9, 2010 at 8:23 am

    ChiFI I am your ALFA DOG – Check out AMBAC stock, up 65% in afterhours baby. Made a few hundred million PROFIT> now we know August 1st you are pouring me a beer for sure.

    I am far better at reading distorted and manipulated financial statements than your are.

    impressive, johnny

  210. chicagofinance says:

    Honestly, there should be a breast feeding element to this focus, and I am wondering why it is lacking….

    NJGator says:
    April 9, 2010 at 2:18 pm
    Why do people do this to their kids?
    http://www.baristanet.com/baristakids/blog/raw-food-baby/

  211. mw802 says:

    BTW – the fears I had about overvalued real estate also meant that I sold stocks early – I was seeing bubbles everywhere. That means I missed the run up we’ve missed the last year. What I saved in real estate I surely lost in a 75% gain in the S&P – all my jumping through hoops to avoid a real estate calamity essentially got me little – I just don’t know how to profit from all my doom – so I’m just going to play along from now on. Best to all.

  212. yo'me says:

    What I saved in real estate I surely lost in a 75% gain in the S&P

    I missed that boat too-Only had 25% in the market.Scary Cat killed me of what I know can happen.

  213. Final Doom says:

    Ben (193)-

    Your union isn’t for you. You nailed it when you said it’s simply a Ponzi for the first in to retire, plunder it (and you), then leave it dead on the side of the road.

  214. Barbara says:

    I’ve stopped trying to game it and now I’m just trying to keep it. I believe NONE of the trading BS on this board or others (and haven’t since 1999 or so). You can’t complain about rising property taxes one minute while claiming to predict the market perfectly, short or long. If anyone was that good, property taxes would be no object.

  215. mw802 says:

    220
    That’s the irony isn’t it – having lived thru Nasdaq meltdown and having “learned” from that experience actually cost me the run up since last year – I was being smart this time(?). “Avoiding” a 25% housing price decline is my next folly.

  216. safeashouses says:

    #202 Gator,

    Are they still trying to buy the parking lot for the police and pay 3 million for the additional senior center?

  217. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [210] MW

    VT? Wanna swap?

  218. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I swear, this guy is inside my head. Only he put pen to paper before I did.

    http://capital-flow-watch.net/2010/03/07/why-are-the-super-rich-often-liberals/

  219. mw802 says:

    225

    If you’re in Monmouth County; Allenhurst, Interlaken, Deal, even Ocean Township.

  220. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    MW,

    Deal?

    Do you want to get into the organ harvesting business or do you just like the scenery?

    Better off moving to Montclair. I heard they have a nice wall with graffiti on it.

  221. safeashouses says:

    MW,

    Those towns are loaded with pretentious a-holes.

  222. Shore Guy says:

    The TGV is a great train and, at a minimum, we should have similar trains criscrossing the nation.

    Whether French TGV or German mag-lev, I would trust them well before trusting components built in the land of melamine-infused milk and lead-infused childern’s toys.

  223. Final Doom says:

    I like sticky buns made of shredded cardboard.

  224. safeashouses says:

    Doom,

    Do you like egg like substances made out of chemicals too. That’s another food scandal from China that broke a few years ago.

    Also melamine tainted powdered milk will be back. tons of it were not destroyed, but have been put in storage and repackaged. The government was paying to destroy the tainted milk, and relying on the dairies and distributors to carry out the destruction.

  225. Final Doom says:

    Why, yes; yes, I do. Thank you for asking. I will have to study that, then post a comment at your blog.

    “Do you like egg like substances made out of chemicals too.”

  226. mw802 says:

    228 / 229

    The organ harvesting contingent is a problem but at least you’re near the beach – I’ve lived throughout NJ – Montclair is out of the question. Wide, tree lined streets, without telephone poles within walking distance to a beach is the criteria. The other issue one forgets when you escape the NJ insanity is that you exclude yourself from the synergies and possibilities that quite, serene, and low property taxes exclude.

  227. safeashouses says:

    #232

    “According to a People’s Net report, in November 2009, the Jinqiao Diary Company in Shaanxi repackaged and sold 5.25 tons of tainted milk powder. The repackaged milk was sealed and sent off to the company warehouse. It was not destroyed.”

    The article claims that 2 companies have 98 tons of unaccounted for melamine milk powder.

    http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/29885/

  228. Shore Guy says:

    ” Wide, tree lined streets, without telephone poles within walking distance to a beach is the criteria”

    I suggest Avon. Spring lake has its points, too, but Avon is a great place, and still walkable to the Stone Pony.

  229. Essex says:

    193. Starting as a teacher this year would kind of mean you’ll be out of work.

  230. safeashouses says:

    Doom,

    Some people claim the fake egg story was a hoax, but after the tainted milk, toys, drywall, cardboard sticky buns, I think it is possible.

    http://www.therawfeed.com/2009/03/miracle-of-modern-china-fantastic-fakes.html

    Just google chinese fake eggs and a bunch of links will pop up. Some claim its a hoax.

  231. mw802 says:

    236

    I was in Spring Lake when Bill Parcels had a house there – it felt a bit to sterile and manicured.
    btw – read this on another site:
    “Can’t be short for manic Monday – when the rumor of a merger between two perpetually bankrupt companies, or lending more money to perpetually bankrupt countries, will be used as an excuse to ramp stocks up another percent or so without much actual trading.”
    We haven’t had a down Monday since last October or so. Given this history I still don’t think I could profit from this phenomena.

  232. frank says:

    NJ market on fire, where’s the recession??

    Multiple Bids, but Not Exactly a War

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/realestate/11njzo.html?ref=realestate

  233. Mr Hyde says:

    MW802

    Your time horizon may be to short. You took various steps to protect yourself from a financial/RE bubble. The events combined can take 10+ years to shake out. We arent even halfway through this mess yet.

  234. mw802 says:

    Mr Hyde

    I think you will ultimately be proven correct. I’ve been baffled by the last two years as I thought I could do basic arithmetic. I see unfathomable debt, I see deficits, etc – but I see rising consumer sales and full restaurants, Costo brimimg with buyers. I’m thinking 10% unemployment is actually only 5% above the norm and I’m just seeing the glass half empty. I think the administration is convinced economics is merely “feel good” amongst the many. If they can make everyone giddy it will all be ok. The stock market retracement to 11k goes a long way. The problem is that 10+ years to play out to the inevitable is to long a price to pay for prudence.

  235. Mr hyde says:

    Ms

    re to long a price:

    sounds like you might need to reassess your goals. Long term planning requires long term goals. In my opinion for most people this event is a classic tortise V hare race. Long term planning and patience wins the race.

    A few hares will do very well in this race. Most will get wiped out.

    I share some of your same frustrations but in the end we have to work with what we have not what we want

    Just a janitors 2 cents

  236. Ben says:

    “Your union isn’t for you. You nailed it when you said it’s simply a Ponzi for the first in to retire, plunder it (and you), then leave it dead on the side of the road.”

    I realized this from the get go. As of now, they are more concerned about their 4% raises than preventing young teachers from getting laid off. But hey, at least I got $200 bucks off a plasma and a microwave oven.

  237. NJGator says:

    Safe 224 – Senior Center is dead. Cary Africk claims he killed the parking lot. I think even the Fried Five is bright enough to understand that the pitchfork brigade would be out if they threw money out on those items while passing on this offensive tax increase.

  238. Pat says:

    48 Nom, one of my all time greatest memories is cycling from Kiel over the ferry to Copenhagen, stopping at the brewery and getting taken in the back for the real tour. But I think it was Tuborg.

    Had to walk the bike all the way home.

    But I got all their old posters off the wall. Still have them somewhere.

  239. Cindy says:

    Hi Pat – How are you doing?

  240. Final Doom says:

    Ben (246)-

    You should pay them back by teaching your kids to subvert the system and fight the power.

  241. Pat says:

    Hey, Cindy. I’m living.

    Had a little accident, but I crawled away, like always.

  242. Cindy says:

    252 – LOL – Yeah – I pretty much keep my head down and hope for the best.

    A little accident – a car accident? Hope all is okay. That sounds scary.

  243. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    MW,

    At least in Vermont you wont have to suffer the side effects of a 20 kiloton nuke in Manhatten.

    Its what the Illuminati have planned for us.

    Some think Im crazy but then again 9/11 was caused by cavemen.

  244. Pat says:

    Missing stop sign in a 4-way and a pea pod like truck blocking view on the third left lane. Always get the accident card.

    Do you still have a job?

  245. Pat says:

    Here, this’ll make Friday a little more bearable.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCmCzKM1-8k

  246. Pat says:

    Did anybody link bystander to his Taylor series or do I have to read the whole thread to find out?

  247. Cindy says:

    255 – Yikes!

    Do I still have a job? Yes!

    Non-union – My district has never laid off an employee. They say they worked hard to hire the best and they are not letting a single employee go.

    Furlough days for sure – 3 for the next two years…possible 2% pay cut (We are still working on this.)2% next year and another 2% the following year.

    They reopened the early retirement incentive and are interviewing for our very own SUB pool. The plan is to increase class sizes so we have too many teachers at this point.

    When you are non union you can be more creative with your solutions.

  248. mw802 says:

    254

    It probably is only a matter of time. Most likely a dirty bomb of some kind which will forever change things. Regardless of the actual damage – the psychological impact will be chilling. May even slow the Dow for a day or two until CNBC spins it into a positive – the security sector perhaps.

  249. Ben says:

    “You should pay them back by teaching your kids to subvert the system and fight the power.”

    I believe I would get fired for that. My job is to teach them their subject. I don’t deviate from it. I do teach them how to think for themselves and always question the status quo.

  250. Cindy says:

    256 – Pat – Unbelievable!

    Who was Old Blue Eyes?…uuhhh..Elvis?

  251. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    260.

    Ben,

    Your job unfortunately is to indoctrinate the children with UN Communist propaganda.

    I know this because I have friends and family that are NJ teachers.

    When I read to my son before he goes to sleep I dont read him fairy tales about 2 daddy’s and utopia. I read to him parts of the book “1776” with special emphasis on Nathaniel Greene.

  252. borat obama says:

    Last

  253. Essex says:

    Be honest Al, You read Mein Kampf.

  254. ithink_ithink says:

    mod 265 not a rocker

  255. Yikes says:

    safeashouses says:
    April 9, 2010 at 11:23 am

    Yesterday I saw 2 guys with buzz cuts wearing white dress shirts and black ties sitting in a sedan in front of my neighbor’s house. I couldn’t tell if they were gov agents or criminals (they were smoking so I ruled our Mormons and Jehovah Witnesses). Turns out they were door to door salesmen.

    funny-ish story … saw an SUV-type vehicle (maybe have been a subaru or mini-SVU) sitting in front the neighbor’s house one friday. car was there 2 hrs, guy sat in shotgun.

    odd.

    saw it the next friday. same deal. this time, i drove up, rolled down the window and asked if he needed directions. in thick russian accent “no thanks for offering.”

    saw the neighbor a few days later and mentioned this odd car in front his house with the russian in the driver’s seat.

    ‘oh, that’s our cleaning lady’s husband. he lost his job, so he sits in the car while his wife cleans the place.’

  256. Bob Wantanpolous says:

    “When you look at the price of gold 5 years from now, you’ll be referring to these as the days of cheap metal.”

    Ben [179],

    Please take this talk somewhere else. Stop talking sense.

    Idiots on this site constantly cheer the stock market. Well, the pos has been stuck in the muck for the past 10 years, actually negative in real terms. Since 2001, the S@P is down 80%, in gold terms. Surprised the carnival barkers are not doing back flips on RT 17?

    Make no mistake about it, Dow/Gold is going to 2-1, maybe 1-1. Therefore, who cares if the Dow trades at 20K, Gold will then be 10K.

    It’s a bull market in paper, debt, food stamps, multi-generational housing and parasites. There is a fork in the road; defaut and die or print and die. As a result, welcome to the great race to the bottom for paper. Currencies float[exchange rates]? How about, sink at different velocities?

    Today, if a monkey picked up a chart of gold and didn’t have a clue regarding what stock, commodity, bond or currency they were viewing, they would simply slap on a suit and aggressively buy. However, the “real” experts will try to jam up your #ss a thousand reasons why not to buy. Yet, gold is an impartial judge, a sheriff, it has no liability, supply is limited/can’t be printed and zero contra party issues. It’s nothing more than a linebacker, it reacts. Wonder why the paper pushers hate it?

    The truly talented state that it pays no interest and sits is a vault and does nothing. Yet, for the past 10 years it simply trades at higher highs and higher lows. One caveat, some claim that TA is voodoo economics. See, AIG was a screaming buy based on their fundamentals. On the other side of the mirror, it was crashing thru every line of support. TA saw it, some mentioned it on this site, fundamentalist’s missed it. Funny, take funda away, what’s left? Go figure.

    Again, there is a fork in the road which will decide the fate of many. Millions will be made or lost, depending upon who goes right/left. Does one follow the monkeys or the wizards on WS?

  257. jamil says:

    266: so the now unemployed mafia husband is scouting the houses? Gonna be a shock to find out about the mystery burglaries.

  258. still_looking says:

    Greetings from sunny s florida. – w/ limited. Net access so won’t be around much. :(

    (sl – yes it’s me but doing this by blckbry is painful).

  259. Final Doom says:

    Barca-Real today. Nothing else matters.

  260. Mr Hyde says:

    Nothing to see here, move along:

    33 states out of money to fund unemployment benefits
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/33-states-out-of-money-to-hmoney-3844815431.html/print?x=0

  261. Mr Hyde says:

    California Municipal Bonds Rated Worse Than Kazakhstan

    Taking a page out of Greece’s playbook, the peeved treasurer of America’s largest state fired off letters this week to the chiefs of Goldman Sachs and other banks questioning their marketing of credit default swaps on California’s debt. The instruments, he complained, “wrongly brand our bonds as a greater risk than those issued by such nations as Kazakhstan.”

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f0ae5948-3e4f-11df-a706-00144feabdc0.html

  262. Cindy says:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18537.html

    Mike Whitney

    Greenspan – “What a shameful, cowardly man….”

  263. Cindy says:

    http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18539.html

    Another from Market Oracle:
    John Mauldin

    Credit Default Swaps Threaten the Whole System

  264. Cindy says:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304703104575174090900948172.html?mod=WSJ_article_MoreIn

    272 – Kettle

    Here’s one that mentions both CA and NJ budget woes in the same sentence.

  265. Cindy says:

    oopps – 275 – not done

    “Therefore states with the worst deficits – California and New Jersey, for instance – didn’t get enough to plug their holes.”

  266. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Food for thought:

    Momentum Grows for Debt Repudiation

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/momentum-growing-debt-repudiation

    As things get worse and worse for people the “immorality” of walking away from their debts is going to diminish; especially in light of all the Wall Street, GM etc bailouts.

    I say kudos to any American who walks away from an underwater mortgage or crazy credit card balances. Declare your emancipation!!! You should never have been lent the money in the first f’g place. A loan shark can’t go around collecting if he’s lent to the entire town and the entire town decides to get together and pay HIM a visit;)

  267. Ben says:

    “Your job unfortunately is to indoctrinate the children with UN Communist propaganda.

    I know this because I have friends and family that are NJ teachers.

    When I read to my son before he goes to sleep I dont read him fairy tales about 2 daddy’s and utopia. I read to him parts of the book “1776″ with special emphasis on Nathaniel Greene.”

    Al, I teach Chemistry. And no, I don’t indoctrinate your children with Global Warming Propaganda. I teach the children facts and I teach them how to learn and figure out things on their own. I teach them how to be a skeptic when evaluating situations. I teach children how to think for themselves. Not how to listen to everything their teacher says.

  268. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    BTW, interesting anecdote from my relationship with CHASE. I end my direct deposit in Jan. In early Feb they send me a letter saying they are lowering my credit card limit to 5K from 20K. I closed my checking and savings accounts there last month and noticed my CC limit is still $20K. Over the course of the past to weeks I’ve gotten two “offers” to transfer balances to my chase credit card up to $10K. My question to Chase is who the f is running the place?

    If it’s the person who wanted to lower my credit limit I might consider banking with you in the future. If it’s the person who never ended up lowering it or who is sending me credit offers forget it:)

  269. Cindy says:

    Ben @ 278 – Excellent.

    Even at second grade I find myself making statements and stop – to consider – How can I turn this into a question? Constantly fighting the easier course of presenting material in a lecture format.

    My goal is to have the students talk…not me. But you have to be vigilant.

  270. Essex says:

    Ben if you haven’t figured it out Al is carved from the oak of racism fear and other traditional values that have served the Country so well. Not that I really care or fear him. His brand of patriotism is his business. Just know your audience.

  271. Essex says:

    Once you hold yourself up as some sort of ersatz example to the rest of the masses, you lose my interest immediately. In the words of Lester Bangs. ” Having a hero is a really stupid thing to do as it makes anything you want to accomplish on your own impossible.”. Or words to that effect.

  272. Yikes says:

    damn, this poland plane crash is terrible

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/world/europe/11poland.html?hp

    The crash came as a staggering blow to Poland, wiping out a large swath of the country’s leadership, including the commanders of all four branches of the military, the head of the central bank, the president and many of his top advisors.

  273. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [244] yo’me

    A decent article, but it avoids the obvious (as do all articles waxing nostalgic about the Clinton years).

    Clinton had an internet-driven stock market bubble, and had the luxury of inheriting an economy recovering from recession. Absolutely indisputable, yet we never seem to hear about them anymore.

    Further, much of the growth only occurred after Clinton got his butt handed to him in midterms in 1994, and forced him to change course. Yes, he raised taxes on the “wealthy” but not nearly by as much as Obama, and did so in an improving market. Thus, the drag created by that was more than offset by reduced defense spending, reforms in entitlements, and a very lazziez-faire economic policy for a democrat (in fact, I recall well that true lefties were furious with Clinton over his entitlement reforms, NAFTA, and his light touch on regulation). And remember, Clinton signed the GLB Act, not Bush as many seem to forget.

    If Obama reverses course and tosses the left under the bus, and manages to create another stock market bubble, he can have Clinton’s economy. Somehow, I don’t see that happening.

  274. Yikes says:

    Clot, you have verizon, right? Real Madrid v Barcelona, 4 pm.

    Messi vs. Ronaldo. It’s soccer’s equivalent of Manning-Brady or LeBron v Kobe

  275. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [283] yikes

    Yes, this is a true blow for Poland, and for the region. Apparently, all the top minds and leaders in government were on the plane. That will create a huge void, and perhaps a power struggle in Poland.

    Further, this is already starting to smell (BTW, where is SAS?). It is being reported that the Smolensk airport was closed for fog, yet the journalists advance plane was allowed to land there, and they didn’t attempt to wave off the President’s plane?

    Something stinks about that, and given the historic distrust, I think the Russians have to bend over backwards to demonstrate that this was an unfortunate accident.

  276. speedkillsu says:

    mw802… Bill Parcels lived in Sea Girt , within spitting distance of the Parker House ,although he held court at Rod’s

  277. Shore Guy says:

    Sea Girt has its pluses for sure but the train runs too closr to too many nice houses for my taste.

  278. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [284] redux,

    In fact, if you look at what Clinton did after he backed down on gays and health care, he was more of a Republican than Bush!!!!

  279. safeashouses says:

    #286 Nom,

    I agree. Sounds fishy to me too. Plus Russia was unhappy about Poland getting Patriot missiles and how close Poland is getting to the US. And it seems that Putin is going to lead the investigation. Kind of like a guy running shrub’s vp committee and deciding that the best candidate was himself.

  280. Dink says:

    Yikes,

    What channel is the match on?

  281. Yikes says:

    Dink, if you have verizon, do a channel search for GOL TV (it is like 314 on mine)

    Al “The Thermostat” Gore says:
    April 9, 2010 at 9:34 pm

    MW,

    At least in Vermont you wont have to suffer the side effects of a 20 kiloton nuke in Manhatten.

    yeah, but you’re in … Vermont. Alive in Vermont or dead in NY?

  282. Mr Hyde says:

    Nom, 286

    The poland crash an accident? I will put my tin foil hat on here and say no F’ing way.

  283. Mr Hyde says:

    Al, MW, Yikes,

    A nuke in NYC would drop fallout over the southern half of Vermont. So just being in VT is no guarantee.

    Mass and CT would get huge amounts of fallout as well and would be likely to see substantial radiation effects.

  284. Mr Hyde says:

    Q for the collective;

    Ballpark, how much does it cost to pave a driveway, about 150 ft long?

  285. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    “I will put my tin foil hat on here and say no F’ing way.”

    You have to chuckle at the stupidity of the Polish government for even putting themselves in a situation where they had that much of their leadership exposed in one place at one time.

  286. crossroads says:

    I thought I would share this its an opinion piece from the Sparta Independent the author thinks the children shoud do these tasks I think maybe the teachers should

    “I propose that we start a program where the children work 80 hours of community service between their freshman and senior years in high school.

    The students can pick up trash and litter along the highways and byways, volunteer at town hall, mow the grass at all the recreation areas, clean up the dog mess at the dog park, visit the nursing and retirement homes and brighten the days of the greatest generation.

    They can help citizens less fortunate than they, facilitate and manage Special Olympic events, plant native flowers or plants along highways, read aloud to a person who is visually impaired, take a life-saving class, start a neighborhood watch program, shovel snow from the driveways of the elderly, etc.

    And how about a hefty scholarship to the student who did the most number of hours in service over their career in Sparta Schools — or who came up with a great idea for saving money in the school budget?”

  287. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [296] hehehe

    like a bad joke from the un-pc days. that, and the plane was a crate apparently. a very bad situation beyond the obvious tragedy

  288. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [294] ket

    even a low yield nuke? i can see a russian icbm warhead but what about a tac nuke?

  289. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    For all you american history buffs. I love this story from the Boston Globe:

    “The wreck of the British warship that Paul Revere slipped by on his legendary ride to Lexington and Concord in 1775 has resurfaced in the shifting sands off Cape Cod, and federal park officials are seizing the moment by having the wreck “digitally preserved,” using three-dimensional imaging technology.

    “We know the wreck is going to disappear again under the sand, and it may not resurface again in our lifetimes,” said William P. Burke, the historian at the Cape Cod National Seashore, noting that the last time any part of the HMS Somerset III had been sighted was 37 years ago. . . .

    The Somerset fought in the American Revolution and had a crew of more than 400. In 1775, Paul Revere slipped past the ship before beginning his ride. In his poem “Paul Revere’s Ride,” Henry Wadsworth Longfellow called it “a phantom ship, with each mast and spar/Across the moon like a prison bar.” The ship sank on Nov. 2, 1778 off the Cape.

    After erosion from recent storms, about a dozen of the Somerset’s timbers were found poking through the wet sand at low tide in the national seashore in Provincetown. . . .

    The imaging will only capture the timbers that are showing. The rest of the wreck, which is buried in sand, might deteriorate if the site were excavated, Burke said.

    Most of the crew survived when the ship sank, but they didn’t get a warm welcome when they reached the shore, he said.

    “They were pretty upset with them, because the British had been blockading Provincetown for a long time during the war,” Burke said. “They marched all the survivors off the Cape, and eventually exchanged them for American prisoners.”

  290. Mr hyde says:

    Nom

    20 kilotons is a tactical nuke, about the size of Hiroshima. And yes fallout would probably be worse from a crude bomb them from acwell designed tactical nuke. Most official nukes ate designed to be relativy “clean” so that more of the energy goes into the blast then into creating radioactive byproducts

    the degree of the fallou. Would depend on a large number of factors but it would cover most of new England

    A “small” dirty bomb or failed nuke detonation might end up producing negligable fallout in places like Vermont.

    Mass and CT both get hosed by fallout in any NYC scenario

  291. Mr hyde says:

    Nom

    also note that an airburst is significantly “cleaner” then a comparable ground burst

  292. MW802 says:

    The excerp below seems the most likely for NYC.

    U.K. Faces Heightened Risk of “Dirty Bomb” Attack, Report Asserts
    Tuesday, March 23, 2010

    A new report asserts that the United Kingdom is confronted with a heightened risk of coming under assault by terrorists using a radiological “dirty bomb,” the London Daily Telegraph reported today (see GSN, Dec. 15, 2009).

    (Mar. 23) – British emergency response personnel in protective gear scan a London subway station for radiation during a 2003 terrorism exercise. The United Kingdom faces a growing threat of attack involving a radiological “dirty bomb,” according to a new government report (Scott Barbour/Getty Images).

    Extremists, using expertise gleaned from the Internet, could already be capable of constructing a weapon that would employ conventional explosives to disperse radioactive materials. Terrorist organizations could use the Thames River to move such a weapon into the center of London. Other major cities in the United Kingdom are also said to be at risk, according to the newspaper.

    British Security Minister Alan West warned that there was also a chance that extremists would carry out strikes akin to the 2008 Mumbai attacks, in which terrorists entered the Indian city’s port in small sea vessels. London is so worried about this potential that it is creating a new center that would be assigned to monitor suspicious sea craft.

  293. serenity now says:

    Re#295
    Paving 150′ driveway.
    Just got an estimate to replace my driveway,
    approx same size for $7,000.00

  294. cobbler says:

    serenity – is it a single car or 2 car wide?

  295. jamil says:

    “The poland crash an accident?”

    I can’t believe that Poland trusted its entire leadership in the hands of Russia and an old Tupolev. This is Katyn II. Never trust the Soviets.

    This is more than suspicious. Polish leadership was skeptical about Russia and increasing power of EU and it wanted to align itself with the (pro-American) US.

    No doubt wild celebrations in Moscow, Bryssel, and White and US State Dept.

  296. jamil says:

    White House and US State Dept.

  297. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    294.

    Hyde,

    Regarding 20 kilotons in Manhatten.

    Prevailing winds are westerly in Manhatten.

    Ben, I stand corrected. Forgive me for assuming the worst of teachers due to the textbooks they are forced to teach.

    Essex, is everyone a racist because they dont want to live next to trash that will ruin their property value and their neighborhoods?

  298. Final Doom says:

    Evidently, Baristanet doesn’t like references to marksmanship, ammo or Cabela’s. This is their moderator’s response to me on a post that wouldn’t even raise an eyebrow here:

    “Hello,

    I’m writing to let you know that your comment (below) has been removed from “Mayor Fried Re-does…” on Baristanet, due to its inappropriate nature.

    “I think you should brush up on your marksmanship well before worrying about the tango or skiing.

    Do you think a Cabela’s would go well in Montklair? What percentage of the gen pop even knows what .223 is?”

    In the future, please refrain from making any comments of this nature. This is your first warning; after three inappropriate comments, you will be banned from commenting on Baristanet.”

    Best,
    Kaity
    Baristanet

    My response:

    “You are a lame-ass. There is no obscenity in this, no threat, no nothing. Does your blog have a position that bans the discussion of the legal ownership of personal firearms? Does your blog have a policy against the discussion of legitimate self-defense? If so, you should state it in a large disclaimer all over the site.

    Piss off. I don’t give two whits for your little “three strikes” policy. Your blog sucks harder than your town, and it will indeed be a pleasure to see your whining, milquetoast populace willingly buckle under its oppressors (who are laughing at you all the way to the bank).”

    Clotpoll

  299. Final Doom says:

    yikes (285)-

    Not even a contest. Barca is the real deal; Real is fugazy.

    Two brilliant Xavi-Messi plays, though. The only real question left is whether Messi can reproduce anything close to this level of play for Maradona at the WC.

  300. Final Doom says:

    Ben (278)-

    Dude, you better be looking out for yourself. TPTB in this fetid state look at people like you like a target to be neutralized.

    “Al, I teach Chemistry. And no, I don’t indoctrinate your children with Global Warming Propaganda. I teach the children facts and I teach them how to learn and figure out things on their own. I teach them how to be a skeptic when evaluating situations. I teach children how to think for themselves. Not how to listen to everything their teacher says.”

  301. Final Doom says:

    plume (300)-

    I heard Barney Frank blockaded Provincetown once…when he was in heat for some fresh ham.

    “They were pretty upset with them, because the British had been blockading Provincetown for a long time during the war,” Burke said. “They marched all the survivors off the Cape, and eventually exchanged them for American prisoners.”

  302. Essex says:

    No Al I completely Agree with a desire to live among people you know and trust. My neighbors just happen to be Jews.

  303. NJCoast says:

    State Theatre New Brunswick. Frankie Avalon singing “Venus”, Fabian in the wings ready to join him. Shoot me now.

  304. jamil says:

    al: for essex, and progressives in general, the definition of a racist is someone who opposes liberals. It allows progressives to avoid any substantive arguments.

  305. njescapee says:

    Coast, will it be replayed on PBS next year? Think I’ll skip that one.

  306. Essex says:

    Jamil you haven’t a clue where I stand. Not one iota of insight you tedious little prig. I will say that the damage done under the GOP during the last go round will probably take decades to undo.

  307. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 309

    F’ing hilarious!!!

    They moderated you just for mentioning cabela’s and .223!!!!

    I think you ad one or two other regulars on this blog could over run the entire town. Ever want you own fiefdom?

    Of course they will protest, until you offer them a few bike racks and a parking lot.

  308. Stu says:

    China’s $7.24B March trade deficit 1st in 6 years
    China reports $7.24 billion trade deficit in March as imports surge, first in almost 6 years

    In other news, Chinese President Hu Jintao has banned the use of bicycles.

  309. Al "The Thermostat" Gore says:

    318.

    Hyde,

    Like I said, a pincer move should shut down the communists that inhabit that municipality.

    Once we close the gap we will have effectively cut off their supply chain. It will be communist eating communist. A win win for us all.

    Afterwords I doubt a berlin wall would be an effective long term solution. I do believe we would have to eradicate ourselves of the soil. I figure half a dozen bull dozers and some of those large mining trucks could get the job done.

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