Woe is May

From Jeffery Otteau (http://www.otteau.com):

Contracts to purchase a home in New Jersey declined in May by 23% as compared to the same month last year, falling to their lowest level of the past 6 years. Considering that contract-sales in April recorded their 2nd highest pace on record in New Jersey, this marks a stunning reversal for the housing market raising concerns about the sustainability of the recovery that has been taking shape in the housing market and overall economy since last year.

From the WSJ:

Signs of Improvement Are Fleeting for Mortgage Delinquencies

After several months of improvement, mortgage delinquencies rose in May, according to loan data tracked by research firm LPS Applied Analytics.

Nearly 9.2% of all loans were 90 days or more past due at the end of May, up from 9% one month earlier. Those numbers exclude the share of loans in foreclosure, which remained unchanged at 3.18% in May from the previous month.

The numbers raise questions about how enduring the improvement in mortgage delinquencies earlier this year will prove to be, particularly because delinquencies typically improve during February and March. The number of loans that were 30 days past due jumped in May from April, while the share of loans that were 60 and 90 days late also increased.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

236 Responses to Woe is May

  1. Juice Box says:

    foist?

  2. grim says:

    From CNBC:

    New Loan Delinquencies on the Rise Again

    ust when you thought things might be turning around, the mortgage crisis takes yet another little dip to the downside.

    Lender Processing Services just put out its May “Mortgage Monitor,” and some promising trends aren’t so promising anymore, specifically new delinquencies and cure rates.

    While the total delinquency rate rose 2.3 percent, which is not surprising given how much is in the pipeline, the 30-day delinquent bucket jumped 10 percent. That is surprising because the that number had been coming down of late. The LPS data report says that’s because the “seasonal improvement period has expired,” but I’m not sure normal seasonal patterns really apply to this market anymore.

    More likely is that home prices are not rebounding at the expected/hoped for pace, prompting more borrowers who are underwater on their loans to choose not to pay. And while the job market isn’t bleeding so much anymore, it’s not adding jobs back at the rate we need, nor is it re-instituting those full time jobs that were slashed to part-time, leaving many borrowers still “underemployed.” So the delinquency rate nationwide now stands at 9.2 percent from this particular data set, and with the rise in new delinquencies, it won’t be coming down any time soon.

    How do I know this?

    Because the report also finds that the “cure rate,” which is the rate at which bad loans actually get better, i.e. the borrowers start to pay again, is getting worse.

  3. grim says:

    From HousingWire:

    CMBS Delinquency Rate Triples From a Year Ago, Passes 7%: Realpoint

    Delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) in the US reached 7.2% in May from 6.9% in April, and more than triple the rate a year ago, according to the analytics firm Realpoint.

    Realpoint tracks delinquency data on nearly $800bn of CMBS pools for the monthly reports. In May, the total delinquent unpaid balance for these loans reached $57.3bn, a $2.9bn increase from the previous month.

    The overall delinquency rate of 7.2% is more than three times the 2.2% reported a year ago, in May 2009 and more than 25 times more than the lowest point recorded by Realpoint, the 0.2% delinquency rate in June 2007.

    By the end of 2010, the total amount of unpaid principal balance could grow between $80bn and $90bn, Realpoint forecasted, and the delinquency rate could reach as high as 12%.

  4. grim says:

    Contracts to purchase a home in New Jersey declined in May by 23% as compared to the same month last year, falling to their lowest level of the past 6 years.

    Probably closer to an 8-10 year low.

  5. Sas3 says:

    Rutgers and “prestigious”? :)

  6. EWellie says:

    There’s a shock! The lemmings went out for the tax credit. Now we can watch the market get back to where it should be!

  7. Final Doom says:

    Only college that’s worth it is one that will teach you how to shoot like Lee Harvey. That probably narrows the list to West Point.

  8. Pat says:

    Penn State and “prestigious”? :)

    Crap. I went there because it was the generic brand. When did they do the bait & switch?

  9. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom,

    Wrong.

    There are a number of fine military academies in the US!

  10. Yikes says:

    anyone up for some Oakland riots this week?

    http://sfist.com/2010/07/01/oakland_riot_speculation_mehserle_v.php

    Doom?

  11. Pat says:

    Clot, you’re wrong. After first trimester 7:30 am running – at the furthest point possible on campus (yeah, I was a Freshman with no scheduling skills) – I wised up and took riflery for the duration.

    Fortunately, I had a lot of experience and did the job against the farmers and the platoons of ROTC. Have been a sharpshooter ever since.

  12. Yikes says:

    from other thread:

    Jason says:
    July 6, 2010 at 10:53 am

    Grim is correct about the direction Montclair is heading. The town has massive debt, which has recently been downgraded.

    I’d be interested in looking this up about my town. Did you find Montclair’s information online?

  13. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 8

    If thats really what you want hereare 4 schools that can provide for you

    Marine Scout Sniper Basic Course or SSBC
    * School of Infantry (West), Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, California
    * Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, North Carolina
    * Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia
    * Marine Corps Base Hawaii

  14. Confused in NJ says:

    How about VMI (Virginia Military Institute).

  15. gary says:

    Montclair: Went into an open house on S. Mountain Avenue a month ago. A 3bd/2bth bland colonial with no yard “reduced” to $699,000. 2009 property taxes: $21,000 It’s for the children, you know.

  16. Confused in NJ says:

    In the United States, a Senior Military College (SMC) is one of six colleges that offer military Reserve Officers’ Training Corps (ROTC) programs and are specifically recognized under 10 USC 2111a(f). The six senior military colleges are:

    North Georgia College & State University; Dahlonega, Georgia
    Norwich University; Northfield, Vermont
    Texas A&M University; College Station, Texas
    The Citadel; Charleston, South Carolina
    Virginia Military Institute; Lexington, Virginia
    Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech); Blacksburg, Virginia

  17. 250k says:

    Woe is May?

    I get a monthly newsletter from one of Brigadoon’s RE Agents. Typical RE BS about why now is such a great time to buy or sell and then a full listing of all closed transactions in the area (including Westfield, Scotch Plains, Fanwood, etc.).

    I just got the July newsletter a few minutes ago. She prefaced the contents in her email saying “Attached is my July newsletter, Market Trends. This is the first time that I have dedicated my entire newsletter to recent home sales due to the sheer volume of sales in June. I apologize for not including all of the towns I typically include but I ran out of room!”

    See, it really is different here.

  18. Pat says:

    So these were the 4/30 8k credit transactions that closed in May?

  19. Pat says:

    June?

  20. Shore Guy says:

    If John were a gay priest (from Fox):

    Police: U.S. Priest Stole $1 Million for Male Escorts
    Jul 06, 2010 6:57 PM EDT
    (page 1 of 5) View Entire Story
    NEW HAVEN, Conn. — The Rev. Kevin J. Gray was a popular priest who appeared to live humbly, forgoing a car and walking to Mass from another parish where he lived so that a Catholic charity could use his space at the rectory.
    Parishioners thought he had cancer and admired how he helped immigrants in his largely poor parish in Connecticut.
    But after a routine audit of the church’s finances turned up discrepancies, authorities began a criminal investigation that they say unraveled a secret double life of male escorts, strip bars and lavish spending on the finest restaurants, luxury hotels and expensive clothing, financed with money stolen from the parish.
    “About a million,” Gray told authorities without hesitation when asked how much he took from the church account, according to his arrest affidavit.

    Snip

  21. Yikes says:

    #
    gary says:
    July 6, 2010 at 9:39 pm

    Montclair: Went into an open house on S. Mountain Avenue a month ago. A 3bd/2bth bland colonial with no yard “reduced” to $699,000. 2009 property taxes: $21,000 It’s for the children, you know.

    I would love to see the size of yard, BR/BA and sq footage. 21k prop taxes are an absolute joke. you’d be better served commuting 2 hrs from Bucks County.

    for a house that size your tax bill MIGHT be 10k. but at 699k, the sq footage will prob be 4500, and you’ll probably get 1.5 acres.

    i dont know Montclair that well but ya’ll are really dealing with some BS

  22. dreamtheaterr says:

    It’s been a while since I posted here though I read daily, and price action in NJ is pretty much where Grim, Clot, BCBob, and a few others nailed 3-4 years back. Miss the days of Pretorius and Richard.

    We’ve been able to negotiate no rent increase the past 4 years where we stay, and are now ready to put down 30%. Qs is – is the time slowly approaching where it might be time to put on the boots and tie the laces?

    But as Clot said a year or 2 back, 90% of the folks on the blog will never buy a house, and I seriously think he understood many of us better than ourselves.

  23. Revelations says:

    dream,
    Maybe I missed something, but I think grim’s charts are pointing to the next leg down in NJRE. That said, I really do hope we’re nearing a bottom because my wife already has my boots on, and she’s lacing ’em up ..very ..tightly.
    I personally think (based on exhaustion of stimulus, job stats, and defaults/foreclosures) we have at least another 10% to go, however.

  24. Revelations says:

    Yikes,
    Not sure what part of Bucks you’re from, but what happened to Yardley taxes? I don’t remember them being so high in the last few years. They’re not much better than NJ.

    P.S. Check out this description. Never read anything like it:

    http://www.weichert.com/32387384/?cityid=58597&minpr=500&maxpr=500&view=gallery

  25. Fabius Maximus says:

    “Buyer responsible to unwinterize and rewinterize if required for inspections by a contractor approved by Seller”

    They are staring to learn. I nailed WaMu’s stones to the wall on this sort of thing and squeezed another 10K out of them at closing for repairs. I still beleive that there is no such thing as “As Is”

  26. cobbler says:

    Fabius, previous thread (AC repairs)
    Get a second and maybe a third opinion about the needed work (unless the AC motor actually burned down – and even then, find the guy who will not insist on changing the air handler and coils). Two summers ago my needed repairs went from compressor, cooling fan and coils ($2,700), to compressor only ($1,400), to having a booster capacitor installed ($120 for the visit, $7 for the parts).

  27. Shore Guy says:

    Remember, it is not the heat, it is the humidity.

  28. Shore Guy says:

    Remember, it is not the heat, it is the humidity.

  29. grim says:

    I just got the July newsletter a few minutes ago. She prefaced the contents in her email saying “Attached is my July newsletter, Market Trends. This is the first time that I have dedicated my entire newsletter to recent home sales due to the sheer volume of sales in June.

    See, it really is different here.

    No, actually completely expected and in-line with the chart posted, and not different at all.

    Realtors care about closed sales, it’s when they get the commission check.

    Otteau cares about contracts, because it represents buyers “buying”.

    Takes 2 months on average between contract and closing.

    Tax credit required closings to happen by June 30th.

    See the April peak on Otteau’s chart (and to some extent March and May numbers)? Those are the sales that closing in June.

  30. grim says:

    Westfield Contracts/Sales/Sales Prices for June
    From GSMLS – This morning

    June 2005: 47UC/63S – $629,000 Med. SP
    June 2006: 36UC/46S – $787,000 Med. SP
    June 2007: 34UC/52S – $728,000 Med. SP
    June 2008: 31UC/41S – $685,000 Med. SP
    June 2009: 31UC/38S – $675,000 Med. SP
    June 2010: 31UC/40S – $640,000 Med. SP

    UC – Under Contract
    S – Sold
    Med. SP – Median Sales Price

  31. grim says:

    Union County Contracts/Sales
    From GSMLS – This morning

    June 2005: 504UC/573S
    June 2006: 405UC/471S
    June 2007: 334UC/450S
    June 2008: 330UC/342S
    June 2009: 369UC/339S
    June 2010: 270UC/391S

  32. grim says:

    From WTOP Maryland:

    Suicide victim at fire scene faced foreclosure

    Frederick investigators are considering whether the possibility of foreclosure may have influenced the actions of a Frederick County man who shot and killed himself at the scene of a fire Monday in the 14600 block of Black Ankle Road.

    “It’s one aspect we’re looking at but we don’t have enough information at this point to make that determination,” said Capt. Tim Clarke of the Frederick County Sheriff’s Office on Tuesday.

    Frederick County Circuit Court records indicate a foreclosure filing against Thomas R. Baker of 14680 Black Ankle Road in Mount Airy on April 26. The records state a status conference had been set for Jan. 28, 2011.

    According to the Sheriff’s Office, Thomas R. Baker Sr., 63, set fire to his two-story house and a 100- by 50-foot barn before killing himself.

  33. grim says:

    Just for kicks..

    Essex County Contracts/Sales
    From GSMLS – This morning

    June 2001: 547UC/501S
    June 2002: 402UC/458S
    June 2003: 525UC/508S
    June 2004: 593UC/677S
    June 2005: 621UC/617S
    June 2006: 487UC/567S
    June 2007: 463UC/516S
    June 2008: 416UC/438S
    June 2009: 418UC/371S
    June 2010: 367UC/438S

    Lowest level of contract sales for Essex County in the past 10 years.

    Lowest level of contract sales for Essex County in the past 10 years.

    Lowest level of contract sales for Essex County in the past 10 years.

    Yep, things are just peachy!

  34. jamil says:

    Since we have been moving to marxism, we should try this too. Just replace “botched currency reform” by “botched stimulus”.

    SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea sent nearly three dozen relatives of former economic officials to a prison camp over the country’s botched currency reform, a South Korean aid group said Tuesday.

    North Korea’s Ministry of State Security last month sent 34 relatives of former economic official Pak Nam Gi and others to a prison camp on the outskirts of the northern city of Hoeryong, Seoul-based Good Friends said on its website.

    It is not rare for Pyongyang to execute officials for policy failures and to banish their friends and families to prison and labor camps. In the 1990s, North Korea publicly executed a top agricultural official following widespread starvation. Many defectors have spoken of the regime’s punishment-by-association policy.

  35. grim says:

    Bergen County Contracts/Sales
    From NJMLS – This morning

    June 1996: 1005UC/871S
    June 1997: 954UC/942S
    June 1998: 1021UC/1081S
    June 1999: 912UC/1102S
    June 2000: 858UC/949S
    June 2001: 950UC/944S
    June 2002: 897UC/929S
    June 2003: 1101UC/870S
    June 2004: 1123UC/1173S
    June 2005: 1259UC/1205S
    June 2006: 1015UC/1030S
    June 2007: 1013UC/951S
    June 2008: 843UC/803S
    June 2009: 1074UC/794S
    June 2010: 842UC/1110S

    A better example of the tax credit expiration.

    Huge pop in June sales, but June contracts are the lowest in 15 years.

  36. prtraders2000 says:

    I was reading the instructions for the tax credit yesterday to advise a family member on claiming the credit. There is no provision for supplying evidence that the “binding” contract was entered into prior to April 30. Taxpayer need only submit the HUD1 statement, presumably to show closing date, sale price, etc… Family member had a contingency contract prior to April 30, but the contract lapsed due to a sale contingency. They will be putting in for the credit anyway and I’m sure will have no problem getting it. I would expect another spike prior to September 30.

  37. 250k says:

    grim, thanks for 30+31.

    The correlation between the April spike in contract sales and June closings is crystal clear and I expect future months of data to show a continued drop in contracts, even in Brigadoon. Therefore, the Realtor’s newsletter will have more room for kibitzing about how to declutter your home in preparation for sale as her list of closed sales gets much lighter.

    On a separate note, it was you (and Clot and others) who told readers of this forum that what we SHOULD be looking at is closed sales, not contracts as closed sales are what will dictate where current market prices are. I imagine you still agree that if you want to understand current pricing (if not necessarily current activity) then you need to follow closing prices.

    If I had GSMLS access, I would like to do the math on UC/Sales/Prices in the Westfield market for homes that sold for less than $999,999. Just to see what affect, if any, fewer sales in the multi million dollar category had on the overall sale price.

    Even in Westfield there is money, and there is MONEY.

  38. NJCoast says:

    (For Beach Bum)
    Monmouth County JUNE Contract/Sales
    from Monmouth MLS

    2010-UC864/S1148
    2009-UC961/S935
    2008-UC847/S898
    2007-UC951/S1090
    2006-UC927/S1152
    2005-UC1150/S1271
    2004-UC997/S1296
    2003-UC1127/S933
    2002-UC891/S1032
    2001-UC881/S976
    2000-UC966/S1087

  39. jj says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-07/leon-black-loses-swaps-fight-to-carl-icahn-as-apollo-sets-new-credit-terms.html

    good bond article about historic lows of 2008 and 2009 and how Apollo took advantage.

    Why do people continue to bet against smartest guys in room. Who were all these schmucks tendering at 40-50% on the dollar? Funny suckers are not coming forward.

  40. grim says:

    Mortgage purchase apps down again this week, no surprise.

  41. Shore Guy says:

    Enough with stimulating the housing market. I don’t want anyone “stimulating” the market for furniture, just to keep prices high. I don’t want people “stimulating” the market for clothing, just to keep prices high. The market will do what thw market will do and spending good money after bad to keep things up dor a little longer (housing vi-ag-ara??) is a waste of both time and money.

    Mrs. Shore and I had planned to acquire another property this spring but are holding back. At this point, we see little reason to buy something we do not need when 1) prices continue to soften and 2) state and municipal debts persuade us that, absent a REAL cap, tax liabilities will grow at even more out of control.

    Who in their right mind buys now, if circumstances do not FORCE them to?

  42. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Who in their right mind buys now, if circumstances do not FORCE them to?”

    Shore,

    The vultures.

  43. Cindy says:

    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/07/07/naked-capitalism-and-my-scary-minsky-model/

    Some insight from Steve Keen – Private Debt to GDP ratios

    “…the financial crisis has not gone away, because the debt that caused it is still here.”

  44. stan says:

    NYT story-Unbelievable, theuy profile a millenial out of college for two years, living at home, never had a job, turns down the only position offered because it is beneath him.

    What ever happened to rising through the ranks and getting some experience.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/article;jsessionid=145D62D52165423916817F94D92B38A8.w6?a=623514&f=19

  45. Orion says:

    Why are some sales numbers larger than under contract numbers? Were some contracts not counted?

  46. Orion says:

    Strap yourselves.
    Robert Prechter’s version of the Elliot Wave theory:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/your-money/04stra.html?_r=2&ref=business

  47. grim says:

    There is a delay between contract and close, usually two months but more likely 1-3.

    Conditional contacts tend to go longer.

    This variable delay makes it difficult to compare contracts and sales.

    June sales are basically all the Spring contracts that chose to close in June.

  48. Final Doom says:

    pat (12)-

    Comforting to know the fine art of riflery is alive in US colleges.

  49. Final Doom says:

    gary (16)-

    Five years from now, it will be a crack house.

  50. Orion says:

    @49
    Thanks, Grim.

  51. Final Doom says:

    rev (25)-

    Typical language for a house that’s just been repo’d by the bank.

  52. Cindy says:

    BC @ 46

    http://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2010/07/canary-in-us-job-market.html

    “…Being the most marginal workers of the U.S. workforce then, teens are the first in line to be affected by any good or bad developments in the U.S. jobs market. So much so that what happens in the job market for teens can be taken as a leading indicator for what will happen about a year later in the economy.”

    “….Which brings us to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June 2010 Employment Situation report, which suggests that things will be taking a rather dramatic turn for the worst in the latter half of 2011.”

  53. Final Doom says:

    grim (30)-

    I think the real takeaway here is that 250K’s bull arguments were exhausted after about four days here. Now, in the tradition of pret, Reechard and other dead bulls, he’s reduced to trolling.

  54. Final Doom says:

    250K (38)-

    LIfe is much easier when you give up your delusions.

  55. Final Doom says:

    BTW, I never said ONLY look at closed sales. There’s a whole category of stats for which UC’s should be the primary reference point.

    That’s not from me; that’s from Otteau.

  56. All "h-Train" Hype says:

    Baltic Dry Index just keeps on dropping. Time for more money printing Ben…

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/baltic-dry-index-slides-5-14-month-low-30th-consecutive-day-declines

  57. NJGator says:

    Gary 16 – Was it the townhouse on S. Mountain (2746684)? It’s down to $665k now, and while they have left the assessment in the listing, the tax amount is noticably gone.

  58. grim says:

    Looking at contracts is nice, but comes with caveats.

    First is that while the correlation is high between contracts and closes, with some date shifting. It isn’t perfect.

    Second, some variable volume of contracts fall apart. You need this figure to make a prediction, however you won’t get the value until all the contracts have closed or cancelled. You need to make a best guess to make a prediction.

    Lastly, there is no visibility into pricing based on contracts data, only volume. Contrcts don’t disclose the sale price. That figure only becomes known at closing.

  59. NJGator says:

    Our fine lads from Montclair High came to address the council last night regarding a skate park. It should be noted that the “Budget” portion of the meeting was held in an upstairs conference room and not televised. The “skatepark” portion of the meeting was moved downstairs so it could be televised.

    According to Montclair Patch “Funding of skatepark – Would come from private sources, mostly with the help of Montclair Fund for Educational Excellence.” Our schools are $7M in the hole from budget cuts and the MFEE is going to fundraise for a skatepark? I guess Stu and I won’t be giving to the MFEE this year.

    And don’t get me started on some of the comments from our elected representatives.

    http://montclair.patch.com/articles/is-a-skatepark-in-montclair-closer-to-becoming-a-reality

  60. Final Doom says:

    It is disgusting to see kids being used as instruments to impoverish their elders. It is doubly disturbing to see older folks- who should know better- actively participating in their own ruin.

  61. Final Doom says:

    BTW, my son skateboards. We drive him 10 minutes to a private skatepark (really enormous, and well-staffed), pay a pretty modest fee, and he skates his ass off, without being surrounded by weed dealers and riffraff.

  62. Mr Hyde says:

    Stu, Gator,

    Perhaps the next council meeting should include a proposal for a urban close quarters combat training camp. It would be a great way to give the kids something to do, it would provide a real world useful skill, and i bet we could get a number of Iraq/Afghanistan Vets to volunteer to run the course!!!!

    Hey we could even propose that MFEE fund it!

  63. grim says:

    A town range or practical shooting course would be fun. I dare stu to bring it up at the next council meeting.

  64. …without being surrounded by weed dealers and riffraff.

    Wasn’t that half the fun of skating?

  65. Shore Guy says:

    To Captain Cheepo and the others here adept at rewards programs,

    I am looking at switching some cards over to take advantage of rewards programs. On the two main cards we use tend to charge between $10,000 and $15,000 a month. We pay them off each time we get a statement so we get charged no interest.

    At a minimum, we would like to get some free travel out of the charges and are open to suggestions.

  66. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Clot 65 no weed, that takes the fun out of it. Just kidding.
    Road trip to the great northwest of NJ?
    Just post I’m around just quiet. Tried link you sent no go.
    Any one have numbers for Sussex county,
    they should be blood bath.
    Almost time to float around in pool for day anybody free.Grilling half pound burgers for lunch!

  67. Juice Box says:

    re #40 – JJ- How many pensions like Calpers took it on the chin for Black and the boys from KKR?

    Junk Bonds are still Junk Bonds they should have know better, the very fact that an ex-con like Milken is still advising these guys should be enough to stay away.

    But as they say like the moth to the flame chasing high-yield the magical 8% return that all these pension funds calculate into their obligations.

    Add in a private jet to NYC a nice steak and a couple of Broadway tickets and you got a deal, the game never changes.

    I posted yesterday that the NJ Pension Funds will start going broke in perhaps two years. The Burn rate is 5 billion in payouts per year and the Funds are still hemorrhaging and the State and Municipalities are taking a break from Contributing again this year do to massive budget deficits.

    Here is the private report on the state of the NJ Pension system from George Mason University.

    http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/publication/WP1031-%20NJ%20Pensions.pdf

  68. MTC RES says:

    For any self-respecting skater, there’s almost nothing lamer than a private, ‘well-staffed’ skatepark that your dad drives you to.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    Now, if someone would combine a skate park with a paint ball course, they would be onto something. Staying upright on a skateboard whilst going up and down walls or over jumps is so humdrum. Staying upright on a skateboard whilst dodging paint balls fired from straategic points, now THAT is something.

  70. grim says:

    #68 – what he doesn’t realize is his kid is the dealer.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [154][prior thread] shore guy

    Yep.

  72. Anon E. Moose says:

    Caption for today’s graph:

    CLIFF DIVING!

  73. jj says:

    skateboarding is for suckas, kids should be jackin cars by now.

    Actually, my favorite places to skateboard was those five story parking garages in malls or office buildings, we hit them after hours or early and do the five story ride down and then catch elevator back to top, way scary on turns as you only had the metal ropes holding you back otherwise you were doing a big drop down a few flights.

    Other trick move was a parked car, let board go under trunk then run over car and jump off hood and try to catch board when it came out. Final move was huge ass ramp over huge pile of leaves that got dumped in swamp around a mile from me, get a good 60 feet up and then crash, finding board was a pain. But fun. Skateboard park if for nancy boys. Having Mommy drive you there even grossier.

  74. Final Doom says:

    MTC (72)-

    Funny. I always thought there was nothing lamer than living in a collectivist gulag whose mediocre school system is bleeding red ink and whose municipal debt has been downgraded to junk.

  75. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    Sorry to hear it. I hope they had the class to keep you on full salary for 90 days, esecially given how you described things.

    Are you looking for office space, a small firm, or to go in-house?

  76. Mr Hyde says:

    Grim, Doom

    I believe that the NJ laws state you have to be 12 to handle firearms and are limited to small caliber such as 22 (I forget what the cutoff is)

  77. Mr Hyde says:

    JJ

    Carjacking high end cars now require some software skills. A laptop and a high gain RFID antenna and you can jack most of the higher end cars with the RFIDN dongles. Some guy at rutgers recently demonstrated a proof of concept where his laptop was able to brute force the encryption of the RFID signal in realtime after recording the signal sent by the dongle.

    Once the RFID encryption is cracked he could remotely start the car at will.

    From what i have read essentially all the car makers use weak encryption easily broken by some clever programming and a consumer laptop.

  78. Juice Box says:

    #45-

    Way too coddled, by the time I was 24 I was in Hell’s Kitchen steeping over junkies every night after working all day and partying all night. He will never earn his wings and few women in their 20s want to hook up in the garage or your momma’s basement.

    He prob turned down the 40k job because he would need to cough up a good portion for the student loan payments.

  79. 1987 Condo Buyer says:

    #71, they must have some “assumptions” that reduces $70 billion in 3 years based on $6 billion in annual payouts!!

  80. MTC RES says:

    “Collectivist gulag”. That’s good. Haven’t heard that one before.

    Anyway, I didn’t mean to offend you, but what I said is true—any kid who really gets into skating won’t want to his mom or dad to be his chauffeur . I bet that, if he sticks with skating, your son will eventually make excuses to not go to the skatepark via the Final-D family-mobile, and the reason will be because he considers the “soccer mom” aspect rather lame. Of course, he won’t tell you that directly.

  81. 250k says:

    If you purchased a 4BR home in June of any of the years listed below in Westfield, here is how much you would have gained/(lost) based on the median sale price:

    Year Purchased / Gain/(Loss) between June of year purchased and June 2010

    2001-61%
    2002-49%
    2003-42%
    2004-4%
    2005-1%
    2006-(9%)
    2007-(3%)
    2008-3%
    2009-2%
    Source: MLS

    Maybe the household that bought in June 2006 is kicking themselves, or, maybe they are glad they only lost 9% by having invested it into a home vs. say the S&P.

    My view is that so far, there hasn’t been a tremendous amount of pain in this particular category. Perhaps 2008 and 2009 are the dead cat bounce. Only time will tell, but the thud wasn’t all that loud to begin with.

    Doom (57/58) – Not sure how my observations are on par with the likes of Duck or what my delusions are. I haven’t made any predictions about the future. My comments are usually based on the present.

    Being called delusional by a guy who aspires to follow in the footsteps of Lee Harvey is farcical but I do enjoy Theatre of the Absurd. May I suggest that your next handle be “Sisyphus”?

  82. Mr Hyde says:

    250K

    Those numbers look great until you consider what % were HELOC’d to the moon.

    if you bought in any of those years besides 06 and 07, AND did not pull any equity from the house you are good to go! All the stats i have seen suggests that the majority of people pulled at least some % of equity out of their homes.

  83. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    Market poppin’, bottom is in, get in while you still can, too the moon!!!

  84. Juice Box says:

    From the Credit Swiss July 2010 Realtor Survey

    New York-Northern NJ – Low Rates Alone Aren’t Enough to Spur Buyers into Action

    (6,416 single-family permits in 2009, 6th largest market in the country)

    Activity hard to come by as sales offices go quiet. Buyer traffic fell further in June, as
    our traffic index fell to 17 from 23 in May, remaining well below agents’ expectations

    (readings below 50 indicate traffic below expectations). Agents said buyers lack the confidence and motivation to purchase or in most cases to even look for homes after the end of the tax credit, as serious buyers already bought homes this spring. One agent
    commented, “There is increased anxiety over the job picture and the future as it becomes increasingly obvious that we are in for the long haul – there is still no light at the end of this
    tunnel. If you don’t have to buy, you aren’t.” Another agent said, “There is no motivation to buy even with fantastic mortgage rates. After 35+ years in the business I cannot
    understand it!!!” Another agent agreed and noted a decline in prices as a result of the weaker demand, saying, “There is simply no buyer Interest. Contract prices show a 10%
    drop since mid-April at the low end ($350k and below).”
    Prices remain under pressure. Home prices fell further in June, as our home price index
    declined to 29 from 33 in May, with any reading below 50 indicating lower home prices over the past 30 days. Agents said buyers are confident that prices will fall and in many cases expect steep further declines. Rising inventory levels help their argument, indicating
    further pressure on prices in the coming months. Our home listings index fell to 22 in June
    from 26 in May, with readings below 50 indicating higher inventory levels. Meanwhile, the
    length of time needed to sell a home also increased, as our time to sell index fell to 21 in
    June from 36 in May (readings below 50 point to a longer time needed to sell).
    Comments from real estate agents:
    ■ “Since the government incentive ended on April 30th, we have seen a substantial
    slowdown in sales.”
    ■ “First-time homebuyers are out of the market. Middle-market and above are
    tentative about making a move due to the challenging economy.”
    Toll Brothers and Hovnanian have the greatest exposure. Toll Brothers and
    Hovnanian have the most exposure to the New York-Northern NJ area market, generating generating
    the largest percentage of sales in the area with 12% and 8%, respectively.

  85. Juice Box says:

    ACK! I wrote Swiss should be Suisse…..

  86. jj says:

    Nancy boys saying jobs are beneath them. At 16 I had a cool job killing lab animals in a cancer research facility. Sounds icky but cats, mice, bunnies once you red-bagged a bunch becomes just another job. Today some moms would be like, that is not an appropriate job for my son.

  87. Mr Hyde says:

    Grim, Clot

    What is the average transactional cost in selling a home in % terms.

  88. Final Doom says:

    hyde (80)-

    I don’t recognize the state of NJ as a legal entity.

    Fcuk ’em.

  89. Libtard In the City says:

    Shore Guy (69)…oh my!

    One of the best deals I’ve seen in years on a reward card was just published and probably fits your needs perfectly. The SPG card is giving $600 in rewards credit after you make your first $1,000 in purchases. Most find the SPG the most valuable from a point perspective as they have no blackout dates and they really don’t undervalue the points when you use them for hotel stays. Unfortunately, you’ll really only use the points for hotel stays. The old Citi Thankyou points program was quite valuable for airfare, but unfortunately they killed it for the most part.

    We are down to primarily getting 5% cash back on gas, drug and groceries with AMEX Blue and just paying out of pocket when we see good deals, although I may take on the SPG card just for the $600. We get lots of free hotel rooms from Harrah’s and I’ve earned many points over the years from business travel.

    http://www201.americanexpress.com/getthecard/learn-about/Starwood-Preferred

    I see they have some airfare rewards, but I doubt the rate is worth it.

    Check out Fatwallet dot com for all you need to know about reward cards.

  90. 250k says:

    Hyde (87)

    >>Those numbers look great until you
    >> consider what % were HELOC’d to the moon.

    You are probably right, BUT, I don’t have the data nor do I know anyone who can get it for me. There is data, there is anecdata, and then there are hypothetical statements.

    On a semi-related note, while FHA backed some of the mortgages made on Brigadoon sales this spring, FHA had minimal impact on backing homes that were in the 500k+ category. People were using mostly conventional mortgages or cash. This ain’t Branchburg.

  91. 250k says:

    Or as Doom would say, Westfield ain’t Branchburg, yet.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume aux maison says:

    [79] shore

    What they offered was an insult, and we are negotiating.

    As for what I am seeking, it is all of the above.

  93. chicagofinance says:

    Closed sales are the only true indications of prices paid. HOWEVER, at any given point in time, the data is stale by 45-90 days. So closed sales are the best approximation of the current market, but the only ACTUAL current market is a bid from a qualified buyer that intends to march through attorney review and not blow up the transaction on inspection. Everything else is semantics and posturing……

    38.250k says:
    July 7, 2010 at 7:51 am
    grim, thanks for 30+31.

    On a separate note, it was you (and Clot and others) who told readers of this forum that what we SHOULD be looking at is closed sales, not contracts as closed sales are what will dictate where current market prices are. I imagine you still agree that if you want to understand current pricing (if not necessarily current activity) then you need to follow closing prices.

  94. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Hyde 10 with adult supervision for hunting license, I started earlier. Back to cursing a walls that need to be painted. Why did I buy a house again?

  95. Libtard says:

    I first shot a rifle at five years old at sleeapaway camp in Blairstown NJ. Rode dirtbikes (CT70s) as well. I might have been 4 going on five. My how times have changed.

  96. 250k says:

    chifi (98)

    Yes, the pricing data is a few months old since those prices were agreed to a few months ago, but you can’t get tomorrow’s price today. All a buyer can do is use the data to determine market price right here and now.

    We are talking housing prices here, not bread, so is it really fair to call the data stale? If prices were declining that rapidly, buyers would just leave their deposits on the table, wouldn’t they?

    In HFT terms, if I told you what the price was for Citibank 1 second ago, I guess you would call that stale because there have been 100 other trades in the past half a millisecond?

    Is my point from #85 any less true because the data is from June closed sales?

  97. Mr Hyde says:

    Libtard 100

    Yes and most of us on this blog played with realistic looking toy rifles/guns and were encouraged to play “war” using who ever the bad guy dejour was.

    Playing war and pretending to kill the current bad guys with realistic looking guns would promptly land a child in some sort of disciplinary program and possibly land the parents in some very hot water.

    “Police were called to a house in Omaha where a 14-year-old made some ‘dry ice bombs’ (dry ice in soda bottles). Since his mom knew about it, she is now facing felony charges for child endangment and possession of a destructive device. From the article: ‘Assistant Douglas County Attorney Eric Wells said the boy admitted to making the bomb and that his mother knew he was doing so. The boy was set to appear Tuesday afternoon in juvenile court, accused of possessing a destructive device.'”

    http://www.omaha.com/article/20100629/NEWS97/100629602

  98. Mr Hyde says:

    if i was a kid in todays environment i would already be in GITMO!

  99. grim says:

    Grayson and Ellery are away at self actualization summer camp learning to share their feelings in a nonconfrontational setting.

  100. jj says:

    http://publiclee.com/?p=660

    what a positive role model the new your jets have in Antonio Cromartie. Good luck on his new marriage. Here is a nice interview of his new wife and the spiritual guidance she provides is truely inspirational.

  101. Peter The Great says:
  102. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom,

    you will enjoy these

    “Individual talent is too sporadic and unpredictable to be allowed any important part in the organization society. Social systems which endure are built on the average person who can be trained to occupy any position adequately if not brilliantly.”
    -Stuart Chase, The Proper Study of Mankind, 1948.

    “A primary purpose of the educational system is to train school children in good citizenship, patriotism and loyalty to the state and the nation as a means of protecting the public welfare.”
    -Justice H. Walter Croskey, 2008.

  103. still_looking says:

    Wow… what a nightmare… I’ve been working entirely too much this week.

    I woke up this morning in a panic!

    I was dreaming that I had placed an offer on a house….

    Wow… no more tequila drinking after work for me.

    :)

    sl

  104. nwnj says:

    250k says:
    July 7, 2010 at 10:56 am

    If you purchased a 4BR home in June of any of the years listed below in Westfield, here is how much you would have gained/(lost) based on the median sale price:

    Year Purchased / Gain/(Loss) between June of year purchased and June 2010

    2001-61%
    2002-49%
    2003-42%
    2004-4%
    2005-1%
    2006-(9%)
    2007-(3%)
    2008-3%
    2009-2%
    Source: MLS

    Maybe the household that bought in June 2006 is kicking themselves, or, maybe they are glad they only lost 9% by having invested it into a home vs. say the S&P.

    And if the 2006 household only put down 10% of the purchase price, then they’re down 100%. Leverage is a b!tch.

  105. Confused in NJ says:

    How Postal Rates Fortell Americas Future.

    The post office isn’t obsolete yet, but it will be soon if Congress continues with business as usual. And if Congress can’t fix the postal service, it’s a grim indicator of its ability to rein in the national debt, curtail runaway entitlement spending, or get the economy back on track.

    The U.S. Postal Service wants to raise the price of a stamp by 2 cents to 46 cents–a 4.5 percent increase. But it needs to do a lot more to join the 21st century. Postmaster General John Potter also wants to eliminate Saturday delivery, close low-volume post offices, open new outlets in shopping centers and other places where people normally shop, and broaden the merchandise beyond just shipping supplies. Imagine, for example, a vending machine selling snacks at the venerable post office. Far out.

    [See why the mail should come every other day.]

    Those are reasonable moves for an institution that’s about as healthy as General Motors was before it declared bankruptcy. The physical delivery of mail is a “legacy” business in decline, thanks to email, texting, online banking, and the fading need for anything on paper. On its current course, the postal service is expected to lose $7 billion over the next year and $238 billion by 2020. That’s a catastrophic deficit, nearly twice what the government has spent so far to prop up two other failed government enterprises, the mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

    Yet modernizing the postal service is a Gordian challenge that highlights the worst parochialism in American politics. The postal service is a government creation that tries to act like a corporation, yet has to abide by rules that virtually guarantee it will lose money. It’s required to deliver mail to every address in America six days a week, even if the daily delivery constitutes nothing more than fliers for furniture sales. It can’t lay off workers or close money-losing outlets, no matter how bad its finances. Big changes require Congressional approval, which gives lobbyists for the postal workers’ union, publishers, direct-mail advertisers, and even competitors such as UPS and FedEx an inordinate amount of control over the agency.

  106. grim says:

    Why not just lease carrier routes to third party providers? UPS, FedEx, Goldman Sachs, whoever.

  107. grim says:

    By the way, those pesky fliers and other junk mail represent approximately 50% of mail delivered.

    Get rid of junk mail and you might as well just shut the post office down.

  108. Sas3 says:

    Any reason for negative opinion on TSLA? Too much competition? Technology is great — but Vonage too was/is a great thing.

    S

  109. Mr Hyde says:

    Grim 112

    welcome to the USPS jobs program. We cant just shut down a federal jobs program like the USPS simply because 50+% of its efforts are pure waste.

  110. Mr Hyde says:

    SAS3

    consider me a skeptic. I think they may form a niche, but are unlikely to change the game.

  111. chicagofinance says:

    101.250k says:
    July 7, 2010 at 12:47 pm
    chifi (98)
    Is my point from #85 any less true because the data is from June closed sales?

    250: normally I would agree with you; however, there is a qualitative, and implicitly quantitative, diffence between taxcred/post-taxcred environments;

    further there is an adverse selection as well….people stupid enough to think the tax credit is a benefit are stupid enough to #1 overpay on the offer; #2 close at all costs….

  112. grim says:

    Ever wonder why there isn’t a national do not mail list like the federally sanctioned Do Not Call list? Would make sense, right?

    Well, now you know.

  113. Sas3 says:

    Grim/Hyde: Strawman argument. The govt is not subsidizing junk mail, and USPS does serve a good purpose — try sending a letter for $0.45 using UPS or Fedex.

    I’d wager that we can find many things where 50% is junk. 50% of marriages don’t work! 50% of any TV channel is cr@p.

    S

  114. grim says:

    USPS lost $3.8 billion in 2009. Would have been significantly higher if they hadn’t been given permission to defer billions in pension payments.

    You dont need to call it a subsidy, but we are paying more than 45 cents to mail that letter.

    I have no problems subsidizing the national postal system, since it is a common good, however I do take offense when the bulk of the subsidy is used to peddle 41 pounds of garbage to each recipient a yer.

  115. Final Doom says:

    MTC (84)-

    All I know is my kid likes to go skate. Thanks for pointing out that adolescents begin to pull away from their parents; I never would’ve figured that out on my own. Plenty of other kids’ parents bring their kids to this place to skate, and they don’t seem to be wusses or nancy boys…any more than any of the other sports my son participates in where parents bring their kids to games and practices.

    BTW, be sure to pay your taxes on time. A lot of that money goes toward making your kids feel good about themselves.

  116. All "h-Train" Hype says:

    Wow, nice short covering rally today. Doug Kass says the market has bottomed. I say no way……

    And Grim, your comment at 104 is my pick for post of the day…

    Grayson and Ellery are away at self actualization summer camp learning to share their feelings in a nonconfrontational setting.

  117. Final Doom says:

    I think Spike TV should start a “mailman vs vicious dog” fight series.

  118. Final Doom says:

    Doug Kass is Jim Cramer’s butt boy.

  119. Final Doom says:

    hyde (107)-

    We truly live in a degenerate society.

  120. #119 – Nicely put Grim, and I wholeheartedly agree.

  121. Final Doom says:

    Spain about to smack the Huns.

  122. Mr Hyde says:

    SAS3

    Strawman argument

    Lookup the definition of a strawman argument.

    The govt is not subsidizing junk mail, and USPS does serve a good purpose — try sending a letter for $0.45 using UPS or Fedex.

    The statement was not that the US GOV subsidizes junk mail. It was that the USPS is a net loss operation. 50% of its deliveries are unwanted junk mail. So to oversimplify we could cut their operation by 50% but would have to significantly increase the cost of postage in order to make up for the income short fall generate by the removal of junk mail.

    50% of marriages don’t work! 50% of any TV channel is cr@p

    Ummm, did someone mention strawman arguments? we are discussing a mandated government service, that is running an increasing deficit and 50% of which is unwanted by the recipients. i missed the memo stating it was a legal mandate to get married and to be subscribed to a monthly TV service.

    The USPS does serve a purpose. one that should be scaled to its needs but never will be because it would require a substantial downsizing of the operation.

  123. Final Doom says:

    Hyde (127)-

    Please stop interfering with Sastry’s love of gubmint.

  124. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 124

    Its been a 100 yrs in the making. ever read The Underground History of American Education?

  125. Mr Hyde says:

    Doom 128.

    sorry :(

  126. grim says:

    I believe the USPS owes the treasury something like 13 billion and has about 90 billion in unfunded pensions.

  127. Mr Hyde says:

    I forgot that only the group has value and the individual is worthless. Must need an indoctrination refresher.

  128. meter says:

    “I have no problems subsidizing the national postal system, since it is a common good, however I do take offense when the bulk of the subsidy is used to peddle 41 pounds of garbage to each recipient a yer.”

    Ding ding ding – we have a winner.

    Bulk mail is black hole made out of paper in so many ways. I’d pay not to receive it.

  129. Knifecatcher - Painhrtz says:

    Doom for my sake I hope the krauts win, my wife and FIL were intolerable with the loss to Serbia. Postal service could go away I would never miss it.

  130. Juice Box says:

    They should privatize the Postal Service with an IPO that will guarantee it will die in a timely manner.

  131. jj says:

    That the most important thing in buying a home is what Ted Williams said about hitting — waiting for the right pitch.

  132. Juice Box says:

    Facing growing anti-immigrant rhetoric, the United Farm Workers union is challenging Americans to take their labor-intensive, low-paying farm jobs. … Through its Web site, at http://www.takeourjobs.org, the union promises to connect applicants with farm jobs in their area.

    Most applicants quickly lose interest once the reality sinks in that these are back-breaking jobs in triple-digit temperatures that pay minimum wage, usually without benefits, according to the union. Some small farms are not required to pay minimum wage and in 15 states farms aren’t required to offer workers’ compensation.

  133. MTC RES says:

    (120) Final D:

    Wow. Okay, dude. Whatever.

  134. Shore Guy says:

    “Why not just lease carrier routes to third party providers? UPS, FedEx, Goldman Sachs, whoever”

    The Private Express Statutes do not allow this. Congress would need to change things.

    First Class Mail every other day and bulk mail once a week would be just fine by me. Most important things come via e-mail or FedEx, anyway.

  135. jamil says:

    139: if the law, as passed by Congress, would be enforced, ie no illegal parasites anymore, industry would adapt, e.g either
    – salaries would get higher (besides, without illegal parasite reputation it would soon become acceptable job again for teenagers and other legal residents even with current salaries), or
    – work would be carried out increasingly with machines (like in the rest of the world)

    The idea of “cheap labor” is oxymoron. It is most expensive labor available, given all the public funding associated with illegals, such as funding for their welfare, prison, schools etc.

  136. New in NJ says:

    At the half it’s still 0 – 0.

    If you didn’t count too closely, though, you’d think that Spain has twice as many players on the pitch as Germany. They’re everywhere. Germany’s passing is weak, and when they do hit the mark the receiver is slow to control the ball. I’d guess that Spain has controlled the ball at least 65 – 70% of the time.

    That octopus just might be right.

  137. meter says:

    Feels like Germany is implementing the rope-a-dope strategy.

  138. Final Doom says:

    grim (131)-

    Unfunded? Folks like you and me are the eventual funding source for these unfunded items. TPTB are still trying to figure out a way to dupe enough of us into believing that there is some sort of benefit that will come to us for working like dogs to pay for it.

    “I believe the USPS owes the treasury something like 13 billion and has about 90 billion in unfunded pensions.”

  139. Final Doom says:

    MTC (140)-

    Don’t shoot your weak-ass, socialist crap at me and expect me to take it.

  140. Final Doom says:

    shore (141)-

    The only mail that matters comes attached to a bullet.

  141. meter says:

    This may have been posted previously:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38126526/

    Two questions:

    Why does this article make ‘sending out as many as 4 or 5 resumes a week’ sound like some ungodly burden?

    Why is this kid turning down a $40k job?

  142. Mr Hyde says:

    meter 148,

    i hear we need more soldiers in Afghanistan…..

  143. MTC RES says:

    Final D (146):

    “Socialist crap”? I’ve only posted two things so far: 1.) crime-rate data for Montclair (showing that the claim that crime is “picking up” in Montclair is inaccurate), and 2.) a post about the lameness of skateparks that your dad has to drive you to.

  144. Mr Hyde says:

    MTC RES

    I dont claim to speak fro doom, but i believe his issue may have something to due with the general social progressive structure of the town

  145. meter says:

    Rope-a-dope strategy = fail.

    Spain wanted it more from the get-go. I predict a 2-0 win vs. the men in orange in the finals.

  146. Juice Box says:

    Looks like the Psychic Octopus was right!

  147. Final Doom says:

    MTC (150)-

    Question for you:

    Do you support your town building a skatepark, even though it is awash in red ink…and, do you support your town’s educational foundation raising funds for it, even though the schools are nothing special and also drowning in red ink?

  148. MTC RES says:

    (151) Mr H:

    Ya think? I think his ‘issue’ may be that he has thin skin. He didn’t like the skatepark jibe, so he’s putting me in my place.

    Regarding the ‘socialism’ slant, I’ll just say that most people I know in Montclair (myself included) are too embedded in the rat race to be anything other than middle-of-the-road moderates on economic issues, and left-of-center on social issues. David Brooks would probably feel right at home here.

    But if it makes people feel better to label the place ‘socialist’ or a ‘collectivist gulag’, that’s their right. I give comments like that as much credence as the ‘fascist this’ ‘fascist that’ cartoon-commentary that was going round when GWB was president.

  149. Final Doom says:

    MTC-

    Answer the question in #154.

  150. MTC RES says:

    (154) Final D:

    Nope on both counts.

  151. MTC RES says:

    (156) Final D:

    I just did. And stop acting like you can order people around.

  152. Stu says:

    Montclair is not a socialist gulag. If it was, we wouldn’t be doing everything in our power to keep our brothas to the south side of town. We also wouldn’t be doing everything in our power to tax the diversity (that we claim to be so proud of) out of town. Montclair is actually a giant hypocrisy. Pay your excruciating taxes if you have any money left after making your Prius payments.

  153. make money says:

    http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=NASDAQ:MSG

    MSG is up over 9% since 7/01/10. Looks like having prime season tickets to NY Knicks is going to considered cool once again.

  154. Juice Box says:

    re: #159 Stu – how many of those Prius drives have peeled the Obama sticks off their bumpers?

  155. MTC RES says:

    (159) Stu:

    I agree—taxes in Montclair, and in northern Jersey generally, are too high. We seem to be on an unsustainable path.

    But as anyone who has moved around the NY metro area over the last decade or so knows, the problem is larger than Montclair. Ever since the late nineties, it’s been nearly impossible for a middle-class family to find suitable housing within the city limits or within a twenty-mile radius without stretching its finances nearly to the limit. Whether it’s the high taxes in the suburbs or the astronomical tuition for private schools in the city, the crazy price per sf for an apartment in the city or the cost of maintenance of a single-family home, you’re going to get hammered one way or the other.

    Ultimately, the machine against which everyone is raging in this area is NYC. All roads lead to Rome.

  156. 250k says:

    nwnj (109)
    >>And if the 2006 household only put down
    >> 10% of the purchase price, then
    >>they’re down 100%. Leverage is a b!tch.

    Can you run the numbers here for me?

  157. Juice Box says:

    re #148 – considering all the press that story has been given, he better get good at picking up women at funerals.

    “Mom, MEATLOAF!!”

  158. Essex says:

    161. Yeah. McCain / Palin would have done exactly what for the economy and for taxes in Northern New Jersey?

  159. NJGator says:

    MTC 162 – The problem isn’t limited to Montclair, but Montclair has a bigger problem than most.

    We were one of only 29 towns to request a cap waiver from Christie. 537 towns didn’t need one. Why can those towns live within their means, yet Montclair can’t?

  160. Mr Wantanapolous says:

    “Can you run the numbers here for me?”

    [163],

    You’re not serious? A 10-1 leveraged asset that’s down 9% in a year. A monkey can run those #’s.

  161. Mr Hyde says:

    MTC RES

    Ultimately, the machine against which everyone is raging in this area is NYC. All roads lead to Rome.

    Nope. The root of the issue is a shift from individualism to collectivism that appears to have taken root during the industrial revolution. Historically one was expected to go out and make something of yourself. The dream wasnt one of becoming another corporate cog int he great machine of corporate empire. Now the dream is of becoming a higher ranking cog then the neighbors.

    I would argue that the shift from individualism to corporatism has extended to social and family structures as well.

    NYC may and most likely does exacerbate the local effects given its central status in the corporate/finance world. But its not the root cause.

  162. Sas3 says:

    The problem with USPS and bulk mail is that we cannot simply cut 50% of USPS if the bulk mail is abandoned. More sensible alternatives would be a small increase in regular postage rates and a larger increase in junk mail.

    Did I get it wrong or are you guys suggesting eliminating USPS? I am sure Faux can find some incompetence in some USPS employee somewhere and make a big deal out of it 24×7.

  163. Juice Box says:

    Essex – my point is the hypocrisy, the Prius drivers voted close to 99.9% Obammy and now they have all quietly peeled off their bumper stickers.

    Actually McCain and Palin would have started at least two more wars by now further boosting jobs creation to 1% unemployment and we would all be driving Hummers again (the military version since it would now be street legal) as well as smoking cuban cigars and radio stations would only be playing Bruce and Van Halen songs from the 1970s while taxes in NJ would have been halved due to the outlawing of unions.

  164. Essex says:

    170. Thanks for the clarity there.

  165. Essex says:

    As I wander the area I am surprised at the continued vitality that I find in the overtaxed towns and in contrast Morris County looks like a graveyard.

  166. grim says:

    Ultimately, the machine against which everyone is raging in this area is NYC. All roads lead to Rome.

    NYC… The cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems.

  167. Mr Hyde says:

    SAS3

    USPS is bloated and needs to be cut back. If we really want full coverage by USPS then allow people to opt out of junk mail and adjust rates as needed. We can also reasonably cut back on staffing. The USPS already has huge pension and operational liabilities which will be eaten by the tax payer in the end.

    Assume we want to maintain full USPS coverage. then we should allow people to opt out of junk mail, downsize (i.e 6 sigma)the USPS and adjust rates as needed.

  168. willwork4beer says:

    Grim,

    Isn’t that what Homer Simpson said about beer…

    173.
    grim says:
    July 7, 2010 at 5:39 pm

    NYC… The cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems.

  169. Yikes says:

    Revelations says:
    July 6, 2010 at 11:16 pm

    Yikes,
    Not sure what part of Bucks you’re from, but what happened to Yardley taxes? I don’t remember them being so high in the last few years. They’re not much better than NJ.

    P.S. Check out this description. Never read anything like it:

    http://www.weichert.com/32387384/?cityid=58597&minpr=500&maxpr=500&view=gallery

    Surprising to see. Ran a zillow on it … it is right next to a double-yellow lined road. That house has a slightly bigger yard and more sq footage than us, but Yardley’s school district (IMO) isn’t as good as some in upper Bucks.

    i have no explanation for 11k in taxes. we only pay 7k.

  170. grim says:

    As I wander the area I am surprised at the continued vitality that I find in the overtaxed towns and in contrast Morris County looks like a graveyard.

    Would that vitality be found in Newark, Irvington, or Orange? It is a shame you guys can’t just jettison that eastern bit of the county.

    I’m sure many residents in Far Hills, Mendhams, Chatham, Peapack, Basking Ridge, Harding, etc will tell you that you can keep your vitality, and keep it far from them.

    In contrast, the development around Morristown downtown gives any downtown in Essex a run for it’s money. Chatham and Madison also have very vibrant downtowns.

  171. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    Wells Fargo to Cut 3,800 Jobs, Stop Subprime Loans

    Wells Fargo & Co. said it will shut down a unit that makes what the San Francisco bank calls “non-prime” real estate, auto and credit card loans and stop originating nonprime mortgages, eliminating a total of 3,800 jobs.

    The third-largest U.S. bank in stock-market value behind J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. announced the closing of all 638 Wells Fargo Financial stores across the U.S. Many of the locations are storefronts that drew customers who didn’t seek loans through traditional Wells Fargo bank branches.

  172. A.West says:

    Hyde,
    I agree that the ultimate issue is individualism vs collectivism, but I don’t think that collectivism can be blamed on industrialization. I think that the philosophical/cultural power of individualsim increased with the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, possibly peaking in the years around the American Revolution. The collectivist counter revolution came along with industrialization, but did not spring from it – rather it was the counter-enlightenment philosophers like Kant, who sided more with Plato than Aristotle, who started it. The industrial revolution created a great environment for the individual who could live up to its possibilities, and was a great affront to those who could not.

  173. grim says:

    I am, to some extent playing devil’s advocate on Montclair. I do live next door and do spend lots of time in town.

    Just about any other day you’ll find me cycling through in a Bikery jersey. Or at adult school volleyball in the fall.

    We did try to do a mini-GTG at Tierney’s once. Didn’t work, they kicked us out for being too old on a college night. Fitzgeralds 1928 in Glen Ridge is a far superior GTG joint.

    And getting outbid 7 to 1 on that place on Wildwood in 2005 (asking in the 4s, closed in the 6s) was really the whole reason for starting this blog.

  174. marilyn says:

    Gary are you trying to get me to say its all for little Schumitzi!!! Well let me say this IN MONTCLAIR its all for little SCHMUTZI! Certain towns for example Tenafly comes to mind also, its all about little schumitzi. I will provide list.

    1. Astro turf on fields
    2. Stadium Lighting Little schumitzi may become the next LT.

    3. Lightening detector in fields
    4. TV station located in HS. Little Schumitzi needs to learn how to broadcast for the liberal party
    5. Free Lap top for ALL!!
    ohh the list goes on and on and on. I have no little schumitzi’s and I am still paying for them.

    You got me going !!

  175. marilyn says:

    next comes the veggie alternative cafeteria program for little SCHUMITZI!!!

  176. grim says:

    mar,

    Your european au pair isn’t packing them an organic, vegan, peanut and gluten-free lunch each morning?

    (no offense to the vegans, celiacs, and nut allergy folks here)

  177. marilyn says:

    I chose not to have little schumitzi’s I wanted to retire early and become a once a year Mothers day card. I made the right choice. THE CYCLE OF DISFUNCTION STOPPED HERE!

    very funny grim!

  178. marilyn says:

    I meant not become a once a year

  179. still_looking says:

    marilyn, 182

    eff them and their fu*cking stupid compost containing so-called food.

    (sorry just harboring anger today)

    sl

  180. marilyn says:

    #170 YAHOO!!!

  181. still_looking says:

    183,

    and for fu*ck’s sake, why do you always type faster than me, grim?

    sl

  182. marilyn says:

    hyrod carbons and tax cuts for all, even little schumitzi (and he does not want it) he likes paying taxes it helps the poor.

  183. marilyn says:

    boy this is sounds more and more like a Zappa song. Im gone , thanks all

  184. grim says:

    eff them and their fu*cking stupid compost containing so-called food.

    I reserve the right to shovel shit in my garden.

    :)

  185. marilyn says:

    this is great one last comment, we really should all start the christie for President bumper sticker union!

  186. marilyn says:

    186, I love anger, it makes better sex.

  187. marilyn says:

    better than a metrosexual. They dont get angry. They just explore there senstive side. HA!

    IM ANGRY TOO!!

    Im having so much fun here. Its better than the counselor that I am forced to see for my anger managment program court ordered.

  188. marilyn says:

    This is just as good as an OZZY concert in 1982~!~

  189. still_looking says:

    192, marilyn

    amen, sister.

    sl

  190. NJGator says:

    Lil Gator just got verified by the Montclair authorities.

  191. Stu says:

    Ozzy concert 82 at Brendan Byrne Arena. This was during the bird head scandal. Opening act was called Wasted and the middle act was Motley Crue. First time I puffed a doobie. Good times for a twelve year old. Wish I still was.

  192. gary says:

    Marilyn,

    Schmutzi can’t become the next LT. Schmutzi refuses to shower in front of others. And besides, the gold tissue pochette won’t fit in Scmutzi’s whale pen1s leather sports bag.

  193. Juice Box says:

    Funny stuff MTV now preaching to the Gen Yers that they now need to get by on their own steam.

    Just watched the Actor Ken Olin from that show “Thirtysomething” tell his real life daughter Roxy on the MTV show “The City” that he would NOT give her 4k a month for her own apt in NYC, and would (could not)support her lifestyle anymore. She is currently sharing with another girl, had a fight and was told to move out. FYI Roxy is almost 26, and has faux job on the show working for a “stylist company” dressing celebrities.

    I still remember all that Gen Y work/life balance crap on how they were changing business Bla Bla Bla.

    Get to work you layabout Gen Y fers, if you are lucky I will pay you $15 to cut my lawn!

  194. Essex says:

    177. I was in Orange a day ago, it looks excellent. Sure there is some malaise and a few open shops, but it seems somewhat vibrant. No joke.

  195. Essex says:

    177. Madison’s got a few empty stores. The route 46 corridor from the county line through Denville is a really good example of blight.

  196. Final Doom says:

    BC (167)-

    Careful. 250K may be a Montclair HS grad…in which case, his math skills are deficient, but he has high self-esteem.

    “You’re not serious? A 10-1 leveraged asset that’s down 9% in a year. A monkey can run those #’s.”

    I imagine the whole town’s math skills will improve once everyone realizes they live in a 400K house with a 20K/year tax bill.

  197. Final Doom says:

    marilyn (181)-

    You are my kind of gal.

  198. borat obama says:

    Where is frank

  199. borat obama says:

    I am still hott

  200. Final Doom says:

    marilyn (194)-

    Perchance, do you have an interest in firearms?

    “Im having so much fun here. Its better than the counselor that I am forced to see for my anger managment program court ordered.”

  201. borat obama says:

    Hiii. Fivvvveeee

  202. Final Doom says:

    gator (197)-

    Where did they implant his tracking chip?

  203. Final Doom says:

    #199 is my pock for post of the year.

  204. Final Doom says:

    Are Marilyn and borat obama the same person?

  205. New in NJ says:

    Yeah, Madison does have some empty store fronts. Most notably the large one on the south side of the main block of Main St. I asked a friend, a lifelong Madison resident, what it used to be and he said it was a CVS. When the landlord tried to triple the rent CVS just built a building on Main St 3/4 of a mile east, and moved. The old building has been empty the entire four years that we have lived here. I hope the landlord figured out some way to rationalize the four years of lost rent.

  206. New in NJ says:

    And the old Jaguar used lot that closed, and the carwash next door to that, and the empty lot that was a gas station that has been gradually dismantled over the course of three years. I don’t know what to make of it.
    And somebody had the optimism to open a toy store right downtown within the last few months. Didn’t they hear that even Toys R Us can’t compete with WalMart?

  207. gary says:

    Ok, let’s try it one more time:

    In the first round, the Denver Broncos select Prescott “Schmutzi” Bowels, Linebacker, from Hampden–Sydney College.

    Nope, not gonna be the next LT.

  208. grim says:

    Asbury shot down the topless beach, said it would scare away families.

    I thought the murders already did that.

  209. grim says:

    Inadvertent double entendre!

  210. Yikes says:

    stan says:
    July 7, 2010 at 8:43 am

    NYT story-Unbelievable, theuy profile a millenial out of college for two years, living at home, never had a job, turns down the only position offered because it is beneath him.

    What ever happened to rising through the ranks and getting some experience.

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/article;jsessionid=145D62D52165423916817F94D92B38A8.w6?a=623514&f=19

    absolute stunner. kid’s a moron

  211. Essex says:

    217. Stunning indeed. Who ‘wouldn’t’ want a job as an insurance adjuster?

  212. 250k says:

    “You’re not serious? A 10-1 leveraged asset that’s down 9% in a year. A monkey can run those #’s.”

    Just to clarify, not down 9% “in a year”. Down 9% between June 2006 through June 2010, in total.

  213. sas says:

    “This is just as good as an OZZY concert in 1982~!~”

    ha, Ozzy is make believe.

    you want a good time, try Kigali back in early 90s..days after Juvénal Habyarimana cicrcled the drain.

    what a peach that was…

    yikes!
    SAS

  214. sas says:

    “Kigali”

    how we made it out? thank goodness for teargas & writing utensils.

    SAS

  215. Final Doom says:

    “A Boy’s Collection of Favorite CIA Bedtime Stories”

    I’ll ghostwrite it for you, sas. This is a book that should be written.

  216. Final Doom says:

    Of course, the foreword will be your disclaimer of having ever been in the CIA…

  217. Shore Guy says:

    Ahh, bedtime stories from “other government agencies.”

  218. Shore Guy says:

    ” thank goodness for teargas & writing utensils”

    It lacks the poetry of “lawyers, guns, and money”

  219. still_looking says:

    I’m becoming an insomniac.

    It ain’t good.

    sl

  220. still_looking says:

    At least I’m not out at local community support groups eating stale donuts, ersatz coffee and staring at the likes of Marla Singer and Robert Paulson’s man-b00bs.

    sl

  221. Stu says:

    My job blows!

  222. marilyn says:

    thanks all read them this morning, very funny too. Gary I love you.

    BTW, will formally introduce myself soon ohh and I am not borat Obama! Good guess!!

  223. marilyn says:

    just noticed 221, never heard of it/them. Tell me more???

  224. One figure can sometimes add up to a lot. — Mae West

  225. MTC RES says:

    (180) Grim:

    I, too, dislike the whole real estate racket as it plays out in Montclair and Glen Ridge. It’s absolutely insane. And I guess I’d argue that this ties back to my NYC comment earlier. Part of the reason it can seem so insane is because the people who bid on houses here come, overwhelmingly, from a situation where they’ve overpaid for an apartment and are paying exorbitant tuition for pre-K or whatever, and thus they see the Montclair house as a relative bargain. They get it in their heads that they *must* have the house in question, and then they get sucked into a bidding war with another couple who’s coming from the same situation, and we’re off to the races.

    My wife and I “lost” eight times in the bidding insanity, even though we were on the market in 2009, a year when you would assume buyers were in the driver’s seat. We finally bought a place that was really solid and well cared-for but aesthetically challenged. It came on the market just as a crop of over-improved places did, so the little gaggle of house-hunters got distracted by the others, and no doubt created a few bidding wars, and we were (finally) alone in our offer. As a result, we got a place at an approximate 20% discount off of the 2007 sale price of a nearly-identical house across the street. But it took us 11 months of looking, and lots of rage-inducing frustration with the process.

  226. This is actually good submit but check this web site at Healthy Dieting.

  227. beanbear says:

    (233) MTC RES:

    I’m somewhat in your camp on this. We’ve spent the past year being out-bid on about 8 homes in GR & Montclair, and each time it was to either a relo family or NYC transplants who were able to come in w/ – not just higher, but also often stronger – offers. It seems that both towns are in slightly higher demand than other “comparable” towns (Short Hills, Summit, etc).

    Maybe it’s the slightly shorter commute & options, the momentum of the “emigration pattern” from UWS or Brooklyn, how much general media mindshare they get in NYT/NY, etc.?

    Exhibit A – last wk’s NYT:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/03/your-money/03compare.html?ref=realestate

  228. dekelirela says:

    thermohaline annual mean year

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