America Loves Houses

From the NY Times:

Despite Fears, Owning Home Retains Allure, Poll Shows

Owning a house remains central to Americans’ sense of well-being, even as many doubt their home is a good investment after a punishing recession.

Nearly nine in 10 Americans say homeownership is an important part of the American dream, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. And they are keen on making sure it stays that way, for themselves and everyone else.

Support for helping people in financial distress over housing is higher than support for helping those without a job for many months.

Forty-five percent of the respondents say the government should be doing more to improve the housing market, while 16 percent say it should be doing less. On the politically contentious issue of direct financial assistance to those having trouble paying their mortgages, slightly more than half of those polled, 53 percent, say the government should help. And almost no one favors discontinuing the mortgage tax deduction, a prized middle-class benefit that has been featured on some budget-cutting proposals.

President Obama, who has been criticized for both doing too much to help the housing market and for not doing enough, was given poor marks. Only 36 percent of those polled approve of what Mr. Obama has done, while 45 percent disapprove.

In assessing blame for the housing crash, people are increasingly seeing financial institutions as the central culprit. Amid the swirl of recent disclosures about banks following improper and illegal procedures in pursuing foreclosures, 42 percent blame lenders, while 29 percent blame regulators. When the question was asked in early 2008, as the crisis was still building, the numbers were reversed, with 40 percent blaming regulators and 28 percent blaming lenders. Only a handful of respondents at either moment blamed the borrowers themselves for taking loans they could not afford.

Making an offer for a house, something often done in past generations with little apprehension, is now riddled with worry. Only 49 percent call it a safe investment, while 45 percent feel it is risky. In a market where prices are consistently dropping, there is no easy exit.

As the housing market slumped over the last few years with a speed and magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, aspects of homeownership have been debated as never before. There are tough questions about the role the government should take. These include how much of a down payment lenders should demand, whether lenders should be restrictive or expansive in granting new loans, how much assistance to give those on the verge of foreclosure, and whether real estate will ever again be the retirement savings vehicle it once was.

While the debate has been loud, there was little evidence of people’s views that went beyond the anecdotal. This poll offers a window onto widespread opinions at a critical juncture.

Before the crash, housing was widely deemed one of the safest possible investments. Few experts thought there was the possibility of a nationwide downturn. But after it happened, the effects were widespread and painful.

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366 Responses to America Loves Houses

  1. Al Mossberg says:

    First! Welcome to hell ladies!

  2. Hell is other people.

  3. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Looks like dems are getting their millionaire tax, bend and spread em nj… sweeneys unions need to eat. Unfortunately its not the millionaires we need to tax more, its the corporations themselves, imo, who are paying an all time low percentage of total tax bill. Tell em nom…

  4. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Its not the tax code that’s killing the middle class, its the distribution of earnings, executives at top of corporate pyramids earning higher multiple of that companies avg salary since the great depression… that’s a problem.

  5. Al Mossberg says:

    4,

    Thats why the the Republicrats in DC keep talking about a tax holiday. Let the corporations repatriate 2 trillion and pay 5% for the promise of creating jobs. The Bush criminal enterprise tried that and it did jack squat. Why not try it again?

  6. Al Mossberg says:

    Look at the Greek police creating havoc in their tourist sector. This should help their only industry left.

    http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2011/06/30/greek-police-spreads-horror-in-tourist-area-video/

  7. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    Looks like that French maid-banger who was running the IMF may be innocent:

    http://news.yahoo.com/strauss-kahn-case-twist-turns-prospects-upside-down-090819802.html

    I think his defense was “as president of the IMF I rape countries, not maids”.

  8. gary says:

    As the housing market slumped over the last few years with a speed and magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, aspects of homeownership have been debated as never before.

    We’re in the middle of the 5th inning. By the summer of 2013, this thing called the housing market is going to resemble a botched autopsy preceded by a brutal homicide.

  9. It’s all over, folks. Nothing left between now and oblivion except a little more stealing.

  10. Housing will begin to recover in 2061. If we’re lucky.

  11. Confused In NJ says:

    CBS News Poll analysis by the CBS News Polling Unit: Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto.

    In a sign of increasing pessimism about the direction of the U.S. economy, roughly four in ten Americans now believes it is in permanent decline, according to a new CBS News/New York Times poll.

    The percentage that sees the economy as in permanent decline has increased from 28 percent in October 2010 to 39 percent in the new poll. And the percentage that expects the economy to eventually recover to its past heights has fallen from 68 percent last October to 57 percent today.

    That’s not the only finding signaling that Americans have a negative outlook about their economic future. Only 20 percent now say the economy is getting better, the lowest number since last August. Thirty-one percent say it is getting worse. Roughly half stay it is staying the same.

    Americans overwhelmingly cite the economy and jobs as their top concern, with 53 percent identifying it as the most important issue facing the economy. (The second place issue, the budget deficit, was cited by just 7 percent.) But just 15 percent say Washington is paying a lot of attention to improving the economy. Forty-five percent say the federal government is paying little-to-no attention to the economy.

    Asked if the federal government should spend money to create jobs, a slim majority – 52 percent – said no, it should focus on lowering the debt. Forty-two percent said the government should spend to create jobs, even if has to borrow money to do so. Three in four Republicans said no, while three in five Democrats said yes.

    Americans are split on whether unemployment benefits should be extended, with 47 percent saying yes – even if it increases the federal budget deficit – and 44 percent saying no. Most Democrats said yes while most Republicans said no.

    Americans continue to be at least somewhat concerned that someone in their household could be out of work in the next year, including 31 percent who are very concerned.

    Pollsters also asked parents with children between ages 13 and 22 if economic changes have changed their educational plans for their child. Thirty-seven percent said the type of college they can afford has changed; 23 percent said economic conditions have caused them to delay or decide against college for their children.

  12. Kettle1^2 says:

    Shore

    From yesterday. if there is a reactor blackout you really have less then the advertised 88 hours to skedaddle. The boiling off of the SFP water is most likely non-linear (i.e the bottom half of the pool boils off faster then the top half). Once the tops of the fuel rods become exposed to air and bathed in steam from the boiling water you get rapid oxidation which could cause the fuel to crumble/burn or a host of other nasty consequences. To be conservative you would want to be out in 48 hours or less.

    For even more fun, if the release radioactive cooling water (i.e. open cooling loop like at fukushima) then say good bye to the missori river and parts of the mississippi rivers.

    ok,enough doom for the morning

  13. Whatever the worst possible outcome can be…will be.

  14. Can’t doubt for a second that we are stupid and in denial enough to create our very own Chernobyl.

  15. More impressive, we can still manage to create a nuclear disaster having been given weeks of time during which to avert it.

  16. JC says:

    Softie #7: The tragic thing about this is that every time a woman lies about rape it gets more difficult for women who are actually raped to be believed. The other tragic thing is that even if no rape took place in this situation, DSK has a documented history of boorish and borderline-assaultive behavior with women…exoneration here gives him a rubber stamp to continue to do so.

    Bad juju all around.

  17. JC says:

    Al #6: Before my DH was laid off in January, we were hoping to take a cruise around the Greek islands for our 25th anniversary. It’s an ill wind that blows no good….

  18. Anon E. Moose says:

    NE [4];

    Its not the tax code that’s killing the middle class, its the distribution of earnings, executives at top of corporate pyramids earning higher multiple of that companies avg salary since the great depression… that’s a problem.

    Is this trend helped or hindered by consolodation in industries, crony banana-republic capitalism where favored players and industries are bailed out of their collosal mistakes and go on to pick the bones of their competitors, while new entrants face ever-higher regulatory hurdles?

    “Eat the Rich” is not a good strategy.

  19. Hannible Lechter says:

    “Eat the Rich”

    With fava beans and a fine chianti?

  20. JJ says:

    Green Sprouts!!!

    Rochdale Research analyst Richard Bove writes today that Citigroup (C) is vastly undervalued in comparison to its peers and it’s stock is about to pop. In a report mostly made up of tables showing comparisons among the banks, Bove concludes that Citi is getting much too little credit for its above-average liquidity, strong net cash position, and improving asset quality.

    “A comparison of the basic metrics of Citigroup’s balance sheet and stock price compared to its three peers suggests that this stock is likely to move much higher in price relatively soon. It is also clear that its bonds are mispriced relative to its peers.”

  21. gary says:

    Yes… We… Can!

  22. 3b says:

    JC Have you seen this listing in WT? Asking 449k sold for 535K in late 2005.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1125896&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  23. JJ says:

    I always find it amusing the middle class of yesteryear is compared to the middle class of today. The middle class of yesteryear worked their butt off to get ahead and sacrificed and their children now are college educated in great jobs.

  24. gary says:

    ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) — Minnesota’s state government is closed for business.

    http://news.yahoo.com/noticeable-casualties-minn-shutdown-074321209.html

  25. jamil says:

    “Looks like dems are getting their millionaire tax”

    Would any liberal support the idea that we were to adopt Canada’s top tax rates?
    I would support it anyday.

  26. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    Given out current debt and the general economc cindutions, I suspect that if we were constructing givernment from the ground up it would not look like it does today.

  27. Shore Guy says:

    I will willingly accept just about any tax rate as long as it applies to everybody. I doubt most Democrats would.

  28. Essex says:

    I think blanket statements about democrats are about as insightful as anything else Jamil has posted here. BTW the millionaires tax was vetoed. God Bless America.

  29. Shore Guy says:

    Maybe we should give everyone one vote plus an additional one for every percentage of income tax they pay.

  30. Essex says:

    The economy is in the crapper for most people. Credit is sparse and lives are being put on hold by the lack of job prospects. Any questions?

  31. Shore Guy says:

    Essex,

    I made no blanket statement. Most is not all and I did not state my suspicion as fact, just an impression based on what I have observed.

  32. jamil says:

    ” that’s a problem”

    So the problem is that we have rich people who get to keep some of their own money? I never understood that sort of cheap populist demagoguery.

    They are already paying most of the taxes in this country and their tax rates are higher than in most other countries. Besides, they are the one who create jobs.

    If some hard-working small business owner finally sells his business and gets $1M, after lifetime work, sometime at minimum wage level, should he get to keep some of that 1M? What portion you think is fair that you would give to him? (after all, it is your money)

  33. Shore Guy says:

    30 describes my life in the 1980s.

  34. 3b says:

    #30 And thousands more college graduates heading off to Grad school, many just because it is something to do since job prospects are so limited. Many coming out of school with staggering debt loads, only to go back into school to take on more debt.

    These are the future home buyers???

  35. 3b says:

    I love houses too!!! Just not at over inflated levels with ball and chain taxes.

  36. jamil says:

    State of South California?

    “Stone is slated to bring the secession proposal to the Riverside County Board of Supervisors on July 12. In explaining his proposal, he offered these discussion points:

    •California’s taxes are among the highest in the nation yet our deteriorating services slip year after year while state officials prop up disastrous budget policies by draining resources needed to help local residents.

    •Regulations to control greenhouse gasses, and other unnecessary rules, have chased businesses out of California and devastated the economy.

    •Political infighting has paralyzed California for more than decade, creating a state that is too large to govern. •A huge portion of the state’s residents are on some form of public assistance and California has about 30 percent of the nation’s welfare load yet only 12 percent of the population.

    •With limited resources available, California provides benefits that include in-state tuition to illegal immigrants, minimizing the financial resources available for legal residents who pay taxes.

    •Once the darling of public education, California ranks 48th among states in test scores by one measure yet spends an exorbitant portion of the state budget on education.

  37. 3b says:

    #33 Shore: Bad as it was than, and I remember that it was, it is far worse now.

  38. 3b says:

    #36•Once the darling of public education, California ranks 48th among states in test scores by one measure yet spends an exorbitant portion of the state budget on education.

    NJ is going the same way.

  39. Shore Guy says:

    One cannot overspend forever.

  40. 3b says:

    #39 Americans do not want to believe that.

  41. gary says:

    It’s a revenue problem. Raise taxes! :o

  42. Essex says:

    Stanford Report, Jan. 21, 2004

    Documentary examines how California public schools fell ‘from first to worst’

    BY LISA TREI

    A new documentary on the state of California’s schools, featuring education Professor Mike Kirst, airs next month on public broadcasting stations.

    From First to Worst, a production of the Merrow Report, details how California’s public school system went from the nation’s best in the 1950s to its worst by 1994. The hour-long film will be shown at 8 p.m. Feb. 4 on KCSM, and Feb. 5 at 8 p.m. on KTEH and 11 p.m. on KQED. The Merrow Report produces films on education issues for The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer and the Public Broadcasting Service.

    The School of Education presented a preview of the documentary Jan. 14, followed by a discussion with Kirst and the film’s host, veteran education journalist John Merrow.

    “As an out-of-stater, I’m stunned by what California accepts as OK in so-called good schools,” Merrow told the audience. “Californians have gotten used to mediocrity. That’s part of the challenge: to convince Californians that they can, in fact, change things. It’s pretty clear that California doesn’t spend enough on education.”

    The film describes how, in the 1950s and 1960s, communities funded and controlled their local schools. But, in 1965, deadly riots in the Watts section of Los Angeles underscored how this system had created vast education inequities, with well-to-do districts outspending poor ones by 4-to-1. In 1968, Serrano v. Priest challenged the system of using local property taxes to fund local schools. The suit was settled in the mid-1970s and resulted in limiting state spending to just a few thousand dollars per student statewide. “We really wrote off adequacy, and we ended up with equalized mediocrity,” Kirst said in the film.

    During the 1970s, inflation compounded school funding issues as property taxes exploded in California. A taxpayer revolt followed in 1978 with the passage of Proposition 13, which sought not only tax relief but also protection against future taxes by requiring a two-thirds majority vote to pass new taxes. The film describes how Proposition 13 led to cuts in art, music and language programs in schools, as well as physical education, counselors, nurses, librarians and libraries. Schools became more crowded and rundown as the state’s population grew but local property taxes, once the primary source of school funding, could not be used to build new facilities.

    The film contrasts two San Francisco Bay Area school districts. In San Pablo, a working-class city, schools are overcrowded, decrepit and inadequately staffed. But in Orinda, an affluent town just 15 miles away, schools receive the same level of state funding but look very different thanks to a private foundation supported by Orinda parents that raises money to provide for instruction not supported by the state. The result is a “semi-private public school,” a parent tells Merrow in the film.

    During a post-film discussion, Kirst said polls show that Proposition 13 still enjoys popular support and is unlikely to be overturned. In an opinion article published in the San Jose Mercury News on Nov. 23, 2003, the professor advocates throwing out the state’s current school financing system and starting over. “California’s K-12 education finance system is broken in every way,” Kirst writes. “It has no underlying rationale, is incredibly complex, fails to delivers an equal or adequate education to all children and is a nonsensical historical accretion. It is more centralized than almost any state system in the nation. Funneling more money to classrooms, through the same labyrinth, would not translate into a high-quality education for children.”

    Instead, Kirst supports a system that would organize school financing around state academic standards to guarantee an “adequate” level of funding for all pupils, adjusted for special-needs students and local living costs. “This system would lead to significant differences in spending per pupil among school districts, but every child in California would still be guaranteed a high-quality education,” Kirst argues.

    A strong public education system is essential for a healthy democracy, Merrow said. “Democracy is not instinctive behavior, it’s learned behavior,” he said. “That’s why it’s critical that somehow California get back on the path from worst to first.”

  43. chicagofinance says:

    JC says:
    July 1, 2011 at 9:06 am
    Al #6: Before my DH was laid off in January, we were hoping to take a cruise around the Greek islands for our 25th anniversary. It’s an ill wind that blows no good….

    JC: Go do it. Very inexpensive. I stayed at the St. Regis in DC for $115 a night in November 2001 after 9/11 and the anthrax scare.

  44. chicagofinance says:

    On the “butler” floor…corner suite…

  45. gary says:

    I think the teachers union needs to pass a referendum, going forward, stating that teachers need to contribute 4% of their salaries towards program sustainability and expansion. I mean… after all, it is for the children. Just saying.

  46. A.West says:

    “Once the darling of public education, California ranks 48th among states in test scores by one measure yet spends an exorbitant portion of the state budget on education.”

    It’s a faulty mentality which injects the “yet” above. State spending in private services rarely helps achieve good results. Get ready for more “yets” in healthcare, such as “The US ranks among the lowest in health outcomes, yet spends an exorbitant portion of the federal budget on healthcare”.

    How about”North Korean people rank among the lowest in all aspects of human life, yet their government confirms that it spends nearly 100% of GDP on improving their wellbeing.”

    Who’d a thunk it?

  47. chicagofinance says:

    Why haven’t you attempted suicide today you putz?

    Essex says:
    July 1, 2011 at 10:28 am
    The economy is in the crapper for most people. Credit is sparse and lives are being put on hold by the lack of job prospects. Any questions?

  48. Kettle1^2 says:

    Gary 24

    A government shutdown sounds great to me! if only we could get NJ to follow in their footsteps.

  49. 2Cents says:

    …and I see the circle jerk of malcontents is underway another day. Losers sitting in a circle convincing themselves they’re right, beating the same drum, claiming the sky is falling, nonetheless the founder of this blog just bought a house in New Jersey. Who’s the joke on? Pssstt….the founder of this blog knows what’s up and has led by example. It’s a great time to buy!

  50. 3b says:

    #49 Yeah. But the founder of this blog DID NOT buy in River Edge; obviously he did his home work. Oh and more new listings are coming on every day. That is what happens in a town where so many of the people like yourself live in denial.

    A 3 bedroom crapshack just came on with a 12k a year tax bill. Far better off buying a crap shack in a town like Ridgewood whose schools are far superior, and the taxes are lower. That is the reality 2 cents/jets12. Stop living in a fantasty world.

  51. 3b says:

    #49 Oh as far as circle jerks you are the king of that category. The only thing you contribute is the fact that grim bought a house;nothing more. How did you like your new tax bill??? Don’t worry jets they will be even higher next year.

  52. 3b says:

    #49 It’s a great time to buy!
    Not in River Edge!!!!

  53. A.West says:

    Chifi,
    Remember, essex and his wife are beautiful artistic people, he makes big dough, and his wife gets government benefits and pensions, etc, so they’re living the dream, but he has a soft side that always cares about the poor and their schools and bike paths.

  54. Essex says:

    Chi fi that sounds so negative. I would prefer that in future discourse you leave you personal pathOs in your cubicle.

  55. JJ says:

    Chifi, what Jitney are you catching? Wanna meet up at the Rippa party or the Pdiddy party.

    chicagofinance says:

    July 1, 2011 at 11:11 am

    Why haven’t you attempted suicide today you putz?

    Essex says:
    July 1, 2011 at 10:28 am
    The economy is in the crapper for most people. Credit is sparse and lives are being put on hold by the lack of job prospects. Any questions?

  56. gary says:

    2cents,

    Should I go with the metal or wood look to frame my mortgage. I want to display it… you know… since I’m debt free.

  57. 3b says:

    #56 gary: I told you yesterday to laminate it.

  58. Essex says:

    53. You got nuthin on me pal. But yes life is sweet. Winning.

  59. gary says:

    3b,

    I wonder what jets12 would do if he/she could ever produce the paper?

  60. All Hype says:

    “and I see the circle jerk of malcontents is underway another day”

    You seem a little pre-occupied with circle jerking. Perhaps the unicorns that crap skittles allows you to do such things in River Edge…..

  61. Essex says:

    Awesome weather outside btw.

  62. Juice Box says:

    Spring Lake here I come….

    Anyone up for Drinks tonight? I may head over to the Parker House for old time sakes.

  63. gary says:

    And that’s that.

  64. Outofstater says:

    #49 So what brings you here?

  65. We could fix things in a hurry if we just bought back slavery.

  66. Juice Box says:

    re: # 64- 2cents wants to be the pivot man.

  67. Painhrtz - Salmon of Doubt says:

    Looking at some of the ridiculousness ouot there clot i think debtors prisons would be better. Bring back the prison barge in NY harbor

  68. hughesrep says:

    66

    I think you had it right the first time.

  69. chicagofinance says:

    JJ in the news AGAIN…..from one of your East Hampton jaunts a couple of weeks ago…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113059/100-million-atm-receipt

    JJ says:
    July 1, 2011 at 11:37 am
    Chifi, what Jitney are you catching? Wanna meet up at the Rippa party or the Pdiddy party.

    chicagofinance says:

    July 1, 2011 at 11:11 am

    Why haven’t you attempted suicide today you putz?

    Essex says:
    July 1, 2011 at 10:28 am
    The economy is in the crapper for most people. Credit is sparse and lives are being put on hold by the lack of job prospects. Any questions?

  70. JJ says:

    chifi I wish, years ago I was doing a suitability review on FAs and flagged an account with 100 million in savings/money market. Turns out client’s investment strategy was something like 35% stocks, 5% commodities, 50% bonds and 10% cash.

    Lady had one billion in her account. 10% cash was 100 million. Crazy.

  71. Pretty soon, 100mm in cash won’t even start a decent bonfire.

  72. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [29];

    Maybe we should give everyone one vote plus an additional one for every percentage of income tax they pay.

    Corporate governance model: one share == one vote. You get a share by paying a dollar in taxes. Encourages tax compliance.

  73. Anon E. Moose says:

    Jamil [36];

    [South California Secession]

    Flatly prohibited by the Constitution. Art. IV:Sec. 3 “No new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State”

  74. Shore Guy says:

    Tell it to WV.

  75. JC says:

    3b #22: That must be a new listing. I know that area, it backs up to the big cemetery on Forest Avenue (quiet neighbors!). Bergen Ave. goes nowhere, so it is a very quiet street.

    That price is insane. Friends of mine just got their house appraised (same house or slightly larger) and theirs came in under $380K (no finished basement). Also a dead-end street like this one. Sorry, but a finished basement isn’t worth $70K. This house’s kitchen is heinous (original pine cabinets and the “butcher block” looks like formica.) And the liberal (sorry) use of the zoom lens has me very suspicious. This looks like “the small ranch” in that neighborhood, not the “not-as-small ranch”.

    If you’re busy with other stuff this weekend, I’d be happy to take a run over on Sunday, take a look, and report back.

  76. Shore Guy says:

    Also, I believe thatthe legislation admitting Texas to the union allows to to be split into five states, or somerhing like that. Californa has something similar, I seem to recall, allowing t to divide in half.

  77. JJ says:

    dow up 1.24% today or in real estate terms 8 years of appreciation.

  78. JJ says:

    Saw this long island listing while playing with MLS. It is a bull market baby for price cuts.

    Jun 20, 2011 Price Changed $499,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Jun 14, 2011 Price Changed $529,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Jun 10, 2011 Price Changed $549,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    May 14, 2011 Price Changed $559,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    May 05, 2011 Price Changed $565,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Apr 28, 2011 Price Changed $585,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Apr 15, 2011 Price Changed $598,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Mar 16, 2011 Price Changed $625,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Mar 06, 2011 Price Changed $649,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Feb 24, 2011 Price Changed $699,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Feb 17, 2011 Price Changed $722,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Jan 31, 2011 Price Changed $747,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Jan 25, 2011 Price Changed $798,000 — MLSLI #2355192
    Jan 04, 2011 Listed (New) $849,000 — MLSLI #2355192

  79. Simply Ravishing HEHEHE says:

    JJ,

    In Hoboken they don’t call them price cuts they call them “price improvements”.

  80. Kettle1^2 says:

    Jamil

    what is this “constitution” document you speak of?????

  81. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [49] 2cent

    Welcome back Sue.

    Or is it Frank?

    To be honest, I don’t pay that much attention. Too busy jerking off JJ and that requires two hands.

  82. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [79];

    Bought in ’97 for $330k and they’re short in ’11 at $499k. Just the kind of people that my tax money should be going to bail out (EHLP, yesterday).

    I’ll start the bidding at $330k if they throw in the boat they bought with the ‘free’ home equity money.

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [74] Moose,

    IMHO, the thing that would scare the crap out of the Chinese, and tank the markets is not a standoff over the debt ceiling or some wingnut group advocating secession.

    It would be the a call for a constitutional convention. If that ever started to gather steam, you’d see things devolve pretty quickly. Of course, for that to happen, you need two things: an economy worse than this one and a deeply red state government.

  84. NJCoast says:

    Monmouth County Beach Report
    Air temp-82 degrees
    SE cooling shore breeze
    Ocean temp- 75 degrees
    Low tide- 1 ft waves
    Coronas in the fridge.
    Vodka in the freezer.
    Painkillers ready to go!
    Cheers!

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [45] gary

    “I mean… after all, it is for the children. Just saying.”

    That’s beautiful. I can easily see ads where you tie the unions into the debt hanging on our children’s future necks. It would resonate with the voters and eviscerate that tactic for the unions because they could not use it without raising the spectre of the debt.

    Gary, you are a genius.

  86. Juice Box says:

    re: Secession – I believe NJ sends more the DC than it gets back especially Texas or California. Tax cut anyone? How about no more Federal Taxes?

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [85] NJCoast

    So what time should I be over?

  88. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [82] redux

    Oh, come on JJ. I threw you a softball and nuthin’ back???

  89. Juice Box says:

    Traffic outlook

    All road projects were halted at this morning for the holiday weekend.

    The New Jersey Turnpike Authority predicts 1.5 million vehicles will travel the Garden State Parkway today.

    The Port Authority says it will have a full complement of toll collectors at its bridges and tunnels.

    AAA Mid-Atlantic says the average price of gasoline in New Jersey is $3.63, up more than $1 a gallon over last year.

    NJ Transit will offer early getaway bus and rail service starting at 1 p.m. Friday. More than one million passenger trips were taken during the three-day holiday last year.

    A shuttle will link train stations with beaches and shopping areas in Asbury Park, Ocean Grove, Bradley Beach and Belmar for $1 a ride beginning today.

  90. Shadow of John says:

    Dont tell everyone you know my balls are soft. That is supposed to be our little crush velour secret.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [87] juice

    Were it up to me, I would not eliminate federal taxes, but I would right the inverted pyramid, slash federal programs by pushing them down to the states, and force states to take up more responsibilities. Power, governance and taxation should be greater at the state level. This would force accountability because states compete directly with one another, and a state too far to the left would see its capital promptly flee.

    Another reason for a constitutional convention.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gotta shop, hit the gym, and if time permits, hit some little white balls at the range. Peace out, y’all.

  93. 3b says:

    #62 Juice I will be down to SL on Sunday. Enjoy!!!!

  94. Shore Guy says:

    Someone sent me this in an e-mail earlier:

    The Michigan Legislature passed two bills this week that affect public sector collective bargaining in Michigan and three bills that affect teacher tenure. The governor is expected to sign all five bills.

    Police and Firefighter Interest Arbitration. This legislation, among other things, requires arbitrators to give the greatest weight in rendering arbitration to ability-to-pay (as defined in the legislation) and internal comparability.
    Interest arbitration in Michigan only applies to police and firefighters.

    Teacher Bargaining. The Michigan Legislature has passed three bills amending the teacher tenure statute and one bill amending the public sector bargaining statute as it applies to teachers. The bargaining bill adds the following matters to the list of non-negotiable subjects: teacher placement, decisions regarding layoffs and recall, performance evaluation systems, procedures for discipline and discharge, and the decision to discipline and discharge. With respect to discipline and discharge, the bill requires school districts to use an ‘arbitrary and capricious” standard.

  95. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    Enjoy wacking your balls.

  96. 3b says:

    #64 He/She cimes here, because he hates and despises us, because of course we destoyed him/her on their prices up 26% in RE since last year bit.He/She still thinks they are better than those who have not bought yet, or those of ud who bought and sold at or near the peak, because they knew it would end badly.

  97. cobbler says:

    nom [92]
    If you look in this table http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_of_Europe you will find that PIIGS have the lowest individual income and VAT rates between the “old” EU members. Businesses are driven out of NJ not by taxes but by the ridiculous regulation. Would you move to Oklahoma to pay 10% less in tax, all other things equal?

  98. Juice Box says:

    re #98 – try opening a business in Europe. Cap n Trade anyone?

  99. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    everybody stand back I think I am going to blow!

  100. 3b says:

    #76 JC I know the price is insane. I think it is worth in the 350-375 range. What really illustrates the housing madness was that those owners paid 535k!!! at or near the peak. I may take a drive by just to check out the area.

  101. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    If you go to the Crunch gym near the Village and can work out and hit some white balls at the same time, of course they might be hitting against your butt.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    July 1, 2011 at 2:54 pm

    Gotta shop, hit the gym, and if time permits, hit some little white balls at the range. Peace out, y’all.

  102. 3b says:

    #82 It’s jets.

  103. Juice Box says:

    re: #103 – 3b do you think that billboard across from the old Huffman Koos location would be a good spot to put up a digital clock of the forclosures in River Edge along with a count of shadow inventory Lis Pendis homes. We could even do a weekly comp killer on a digital billboard just for giggles too.

  104. JC says:

    3b (101): My bad, the open house is next weekend. The area is nice and quiet…mostly capes and ranches, a few bash ‘n’ builds but not many. That street is really nice and quiet because it has no outlet other than the cross streets. The only issue in that area is that if you needed to make a left turn onto Ridgewood Road in the morning any time after about 7:25 AM while school is on you are SOL…because it does back up headed west. Best way to head west out of there from 7:30 – 8:15 AM is turn right, then right on Lafayette to Forest, then right on Soldier Hill Road out to Pascack Road.

  105. Anon E. Moose says:

    On Timmay’s Replacement;

    From Politico via Planet Money:

    Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, is considered a strong dark-horse candidate. … But the White House will have to decide whether Dimon, who leads the most successful bank in the U.S., is too closely aligned with Wall Street.

    Shouldn’t that be more like ‘Wall Street needs to consider whether installing Diamond would be too obvious, even for the plebes, in order to keep them from going all Tahrir Square on us”?

  106. cobbler says:

    juice box [99]
    From a good friend’s experience, starting a small business in W. Europe is rather easy – I don’t see your point here. I guess, launching the coal mining op may be difficult…

  107. JJ - AKA Two Hands says:

    I am more worried about him being Greek.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    July 1, 2011 at 3:23 pm

    On Timmay’s Replacement;

    From Politico via Planet Money:

    Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, is considered a strong dark-horse candidate. … But the White House will have to decide whether Dimon, who leads the most successful bank in the U.S., is too closely aligned with Wall Street.

    Shouldn’t that be more like ‘Wall Street needs to consider whether installing Diamond would be too obvious, even for the plebes, in order to keep them from going all Tahrir Square on us”?

  108. 3b says:

    #104 Juice: Why not, the bill board is just rotting away might as well use it for somethinng. Last I checked (and it has been a while) there were over 20 houses in various stages of foreclosure in RE.

    You know if you keep this up, 2cents-jets is going to hate you as much as me.

  109. 3b says:

    #108 who leads the most successful bank

    A very loose definition of successful; just saying.

  110. Juice Box says:

    re # 106 – $114 million + in shares he would get to sell tax free and then possibly out in 1 1/2 years.

  111. 3b says:

    #105 JC Thanks. I am going to take a drive around early tomorrow. Than it is time to party for the rest of the weekend.

  112. Juice Box says:

    re #109- Yes well then he will be a well educated hater on the subject of River Edge Real Estate and I will be one well exercised circle jerk.

  113. Juice Box says:

    re: #107 – from my accountant cousin practicing the fine art of balance sheet magic in the EU I assure you it can be onerous, regulations in Europe for anything but the smallest of businesses are expensive to comply with.

  114. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [84];

    [Constitutional Convention]

    How much would it change to the Chinese? Its not as if we’d repudiate our soveregn/private debt to them.

    The thing that scares me about a CC is the loony left stuff that would be enshrined into it.

    Just spitballing here, but why don’t we fully embrace the fiat money, and eliminate the government’s power to tax? They just print whatever they spend. It’s a ‘flat tax’ in the sense that the inflationary effects of overspending are equally distributed on all dollars in circulation. Ideally pols would reverse auction on spending issues for election.

    Downsides are that there is no direct check on gov’t spending because people don’t feel it on tax day (because there won’t be one). They only feel it at the point of purchase, where it is masked by or blended with other economic factors — not to mention merchants blaming price increases rightly or wrongly on gov’t spending and inflation. It would – I fear – lead to inflation of Zimbabwe-esque proportions.

  115. cobbler says:

    juice box [115]
    I think regulation of most small business is country by country, so hard to paint in wide brush here. As per last week’s BW the U.S. actually has fewer small businesses par capita than most OECD countries, which suggest that the EU regulation is not that onerous. Judging by the number of people doing the regulatory compliance work in my company’s comparable production plants in NJ and W. Europe (more here) and by e.g. the fact that Airbus eating Boeing’s lunch despite using 100% unionized German and French labor, EU is doing reasonably well on this front.

  116. Juice Box says:

    re: 117 – Cobbler wages are way lower in Europe and so is take home pay do to higher taxes. EADS and Boeing would both be insolvent with out the military contracts.

  117. Shore Guy says:

    With this, the doves in Europe lost their ability to push for NATO to stop bombing:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13997322

  118. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “They are the one who create jobs. If some hard-working small business owner finally sells his business and gets $1M, should he get to keep some of that 1M? What portion you think is fair that you would give to him? (after all, it is your money)”
    Jamil im beginning to understand why you are so loathable to some, please see 5 where I explain, “its not the millionaires we need to tax more, its the corporations themselves”.

  119. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Maybe we should give everyone one vote plus an additional one for every percentage of income tax they pay.”
    Shore you joke but this is already what happens. A decent portion of all corporate profits are funnelled to dc on a daily basis.

  120. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Pssstt….the founder of this blog knows what’s up and has led by example. It’s a great time to buy!”
    How funny would it be if 2cents was actually grim trying to give gary a mild stroke?

  121. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “He has a soft side that always cares about the poor and their schools and bike paths.”
    Essex has no soft side, he just has a penchant for public unions. He somehow thinks they are working 100% as intended. He also thinks suburban cops and 2nd grade teachers deserve 100k+ salaries, summers off and fully paid retirements at 50 because they have a grad degree that was fully reimbursed by the same employer with taxpayer money.

  122. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Shore you joke but this is already what happens.”
    Well actually I take that back because the corporations don’t really pay that much in taxes after all the loopholes.

  123. Essex says:

    124. I would say that unions have some purpose mostly to protect the rights of working people. I also believe that the duties these workers perform are much more useful to the country than anything any economist have ever done. Period.

  124. Neanderthal Economist says:

    That’s great essex, china and india love our unions too. Pretty much for the same reasons.

  125. Al Mossberg says:

    Essex,

    Private unions are fine. Public unions are just a mechanism for the worthless to justify their existence.

  126. Al Mossberg says:

    Its all going to sh_t. Just a matter of time now. It will be fun to watch. I, for one, am amazed at how the long our scum bag politicians have kept this dog and pany show going.

    It will end in revolution or complete annihilation Book it.

  127. Nothing to do now but pull up a chair, pour a cold one and break out the binoculars.

  128. Essex says:

    127. I wouldn’t know or care what a communist country knows about a union. India is a disaster, although an ex-IBMer I know moved there a few years ago. I suppose it is because he can live like a king on that IBM pension.

  129. gary says:

    Hobo [130],

    F*ck the binoculars, let’s sit front row or better yet, throw ourselves into the f*cking mosh pit! :)

  130. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Thats great your friend works his fingers to the bone for a private company and has to go to a third world country to live like a king, meanwhile the teacher with 12 coffee breaks per day has the option retire like a king in florida, at everyone elses expense no less. You don’t know or care about china because you are pretty much oblivious.

  131. Shore Guy says:

    Essex,

    I know a now ex-IBMer who had been bringing in something in the $200,000 range. One day IBM told him they were transferring him to India. The downside? They were going to cut his salary to, iam trying to remember, something like $20,000.

  132. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Essex, you support unions for the same reason that you want these unsustainably high home prices to stay inflated, because somehow it benefits your own personal finances. If so, im not saying you’re wrong or stupid for taking that stance but let’s just admit to that much and call it what it really is.

  133. Neanderthal Economist says:

    And just to clarify, the unions are not the teachers and cops themselves.

  134. Essex says:

    I find it humorous when a useless profession like an economist criticizes a teacher. Truly priceless.

  135. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Yep, not an economist and not criticizing teachers.

  136. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Are public unions really creating a strong middle class society or are they soaking the middle class? Who pays the outrageous property taxes? The jet owners?

  137. 3b says:

    #139 No!!! And so many are clueless, unbelieveably so. And th sense of entitlement is staggering.

  138. Essex says:

    139. They are truly the middle class. Union movement created the class. Without unions you will be backnto the twenties and thirties. Oh wait. We’re there. Business has for the past 30 years lobbied and eventually purchased the government. What you see as entitlement is simply an expectation of humanity that’s often lacking in the business world.

  139. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Yes they’re middle class for which the unions have negotiated upper middle class salaries and a benefit/pension package that the top 1% would kill for.

  140. Shore Guy says:

    Where are the adults in Washington?

    By Gloria Borger, CNN Chief Political Analyst

    Call me old-fashioned, but when the president and congressional leaders get into a tussle over who should be “leading” the country in matters of real national consequence, I feel like sending them to their rooms.

    “Call me naive,” President Obama said at his news conference today. “But my expectation is that leaders are going to lead.”

    Mine, too.

    So imagine my surprise when the president came to his own press conference — which he called — without anything much new to say on possible ways get to a deal to raise the national debt ceiling. Plenty of talk about gamesmanship, about deadlines and about how even Sasha and Malia are mature enough to do their schoolwork before it’s due.

    Oh, and by the way, the president also told us, Congress isn’t actually here enough to get its homework done. “They are in one week, they are out one week,” he told us helpfully, as if perhaps we should mark our calendars. “You need to be here. I’ve been here. I’ve been doing Afghanistan and Bin Laden and the Greek crisis.”

    He is, after all, the president. Good to know that he’s doing his job.

    And it’s not that he’s wrong about Congress ducking responsibility; it’s just hard to see how that counts as news.

    What might actually have counted as news is if the president, as the nation’s leader, had proposed a definitive way out of the budget mess — or at least drawn some lines in the sand.

    Instead, we learned that we need a “balanced approach” to the debt mess. That Obama is willing to “tackle entitlements” (presuming, of course, that nothing is done to touch Medicare beneficiaries). And that taxes — the kinds that affect “millionaires and billionaires,” corporate titans and their personal jets — should be on the table.

    Just for the record, getting rid of a tax break for corporate jets may be a fine idea, but it isn’t going to solve the deficit problem since it will amount to only about $3 billion over the next decade. But it’s a good line.

    snip

  141. Essex says:

    142. I don’t see it. Other than a first in first out policy which they all pretty much accept going into it, the jobs they represent are pretty important to the whole country. The pay actually needs to be higher if they want to attract better tier of student into the world of education.

  142. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    have u begun trainng on this handy dandy simulator yet?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fngqc8KELos&annotation_id=annotation_960914&feature=iv

  143. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “The pay actually needs to be higher if they want to attract better tier of student into the world of education.”
    This is where I disagree. The pay doesn’t need to be higher, the accountability on administrators, teachers, students and parents does. As it stands now the avg union worker makes more compensation than a worker in the private sector, when you include all the benies, for the first time in a very long history. We already pay more than any other state and any other country on public education and don’t rank higher because of it. More money will not help. The unions will not apply the money in a way that maximizes education. The will pad their retirements and line their pockets.

  144. Shore Guy says:

    With respect to the laboring class, this is largely true. There were, for hundreds of years, merchants and tradespeople who were, in fact, middle class; however, for laborers, the unions pulled them up int the middle class. The 40-hour work week is also a result of unions.

  145. Shore Guy says:

    Happy dining:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/02/business/02hotdog.html

    What’s Inside The Bun?

    By WILLIAM NEUMAN

    If there is no such thing as a healthy hot dog, how do you limit the damage at this weekend’s weenie roast?

    Don’t count on the label to help much. Those pricey “natural” and “organic” hot dogs often contain just as much or more of the cancer-linked preservatives nitrate and nitrite as that old-fashioned Oscar Mayer wiener.

    And almost no one knows it because of arcane federal rules that make the labels on natural and organic hot dogs, luncheon meats and bacon virtually impossible to decipher when it comes to preservatives. That includes products made from beef, pork, turkey and chicken.

    “If you actually surveyed consumers going out of their way to buy no-nitrate products, they’d be very surprised to learn that there’s plenty of nitrates in there,” said Bruce Aidells, a chef and cookbook author. “It’s very misleading.” In a role reversal, food manufacturers are now pushing the federal government for more truthful labeling that would allow them to tell consumers clearly that some products contain nitrate and nitrite, just from natural rather than synthetic sources. The current rules bizarrely require products that derive the preservatives from natural sources to prominently place the words “Uncured” and “No nitrates or nitrites added” on the label even though they are cured and do contain the chemicals.

    “Nitrite is nitrite and consumers should be aware of what they’re eating,” said Marji McCullough, director of nutritional epidemiology for the American Cancer Society, which recommends that people reduce consumption of processed meats because of studies that link them to colon cancer.

    The United States Department of Agriculture says it is aware of the labeling problem and may take a fresh look. “We feel strongly that labels should help consumers make informed decisions and we are open to reviewing additional information to enhance accuracy in labeling,” said a spokesman for the department. Nitrate and nitrite have been used for centuries to cure meat, giving products like hot dogs, bacon and ham their characteristic flavor and color and killing the bacteria that causes botulism. Today, conventional meat packers typically use a synthesized version known as sodium nitrite.

    But companies that label their products natural or organic must use natural sources of the preservatives. They usually employ celery powder or celery juice, which are high in nitrate. A bacterial culture is used to convert that to nitrite. The resulting chemicals are virtually identical to their synthetic cousins. When the products are packaged, both conventional and natural products contain residual amounts.

    A study published earlier this year in The Journal of Food Protection found that natural hot dogs had anywhere from one-half to 10 times the amount of nitrite that conventional hot dogs contained. Natural bacon had from about a third as much nitrite as a conventional brand to more than twice as much.

    snip

  146. WickedOrange says:

    Make the call on tuesday:

    http://jerseyshore.surfrider.org/2011/07/01/pallone-menendez-announce-public-money-for-inaccessible-beaches/

    At a press conference today Congressman Frank Pallone and Senator Robert Menendez announced that they fought for and secured 7.5 million dollars of taxpayer money to replenish inaccessible beaches of the northern NJ Coast. The Jersey Shore Chapter of the Surfrider Foundation finds it unacceptable that public money is used to replenish beaches that are hard to access due to limited access points and parking. If public money is going to be used to replenish beaches, those beaches should be easily accessible to the public. That includes adequate parking and bathroom facilities. When challenged on the issue, the Congressman and town officials claimed that they just put in a new access point 200 feet to the north of the private Shores Condominium. When we went down to check it out, this is what we saw….doesn’t seem to imply beach access for the public. That new stairway must only be for the private oceanfront property owners. Clearly this is a case of using taxpayer money to protect private property. This is completely unacceptable. Call Congressman Pallone’s office (732-571-1140) and let him know that you don’t want our public money to go to private beaches!

    Check out our flickr account to see more photos of “no parking” signs in Monmouth Beach.
    In case our elected officials forgot how the public feels on this issue, here is areminder. 82% of New Jerseyans want shore towns that get public money for beach replenishment to offer better public access to those newly widened beaches, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll.

  147. Shore Guy says:

    There is a Sup.Ct. decision, arising out of a Florida beach dispute, that says that the sand added to a beach as a result of publicly-paid-for replenishment is public beach. In addition to this sand, the sand that is something on the order of 15 feet above the mean high tide mark is public.

  148. Shore Guy says:

    As I recall.

  149. WickedOrange says:

    Shore the beef is access to that sand. Parking, bathrooms, public access over the seawall.

  150. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Minimum wage and other govt implemented safety and work condition standards were also implemented since the twenties that had nothing to do with unions. They served a purpose when workers were in dangerous factories being treated worse than in chinese sweatshops they were never meant to be so powerful that they drive the company or govt toward insolvency or force them overseas.

  151. Neanderthal Economist says:

    clot, how weird is it that bolivia is playing a 2-2-2-2 against arg?

  152. Neanderthal Economist says:

    yea that’s five twos there right… can I blame droid for that one?

  153. cobbler says:

    NE [153]
    These standards were largely been introduced because of unions being such a key element of Dem politics. Large part of these standards is an overkill – but workplace regs would be at the Chinese levels if not for the unions’ pressure and lobbying.

    The paradox of the unions (private or public) is that when taken as a whole they support the middle class’ existence by pushing up the average pay. On a micro level however the unions are a disaster as they prevent the effective management of business (or government, or school, for that matter). I don’t know at what point the routes of the European unions (whose reps sit on the companies BOD, and except for the rare strikes take the point “we are in this together” and are very supportive of the productivity improvements – see e.g. Toyota’s LEAN and 6-Sigma stuff, etc.) diverged from the ones of the U.S. unions that are always confrontational and ready to fight the rear guard Luddite battles for the right to do the job in the least efficient manner.

  154. Al Mossberg says:

    133,

    Neandrathal,

    I know this ahout china. They make sh_t products. I cant wait for the day that Americans can unite. Its not too far off. Its all so very simple. All it takes is for Americans to stop hating eachother and unite against our real enemy. We all know who they are.

  155. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I would not want to see unions go away but they need to be less pigheaded. Economy is total meltdown yet they wont stop with the demanding of the 3% raises and gold plated benies. They don’t care who’s paying or if there is even money at all. They wont give up raises because they know that’s hard to recover so they purposely push salaries higher so they can fire people knowing they can hire them back when economy recovers, with retro. Net result is $16k taxes on a cape in new brunswick, 22% unemployment rate.

  156. Nothing will improve until we start shooting politicians and banksters in the head.

  157. We should also start assassinating union leaders of all types.

  158. While we’re at it, we need to surprise attack China with 7-8 thermonuclear weapons, then declare war on them the next day.

  159. veets (154)-

    That shape the Bolivians have is very similar to Chile’s narrow 3-3-1-3 that they have used effectively for a few years now. It only looks like five narrow lines when Bolivia is in possession; when they drop into defending, it’s much more conventional.

    Look at Barca in possession. It’s an old-fashioned 2-3-3-2…but good luck cracking it when the breathless, dying opponent finally manages to win back the ball.

  160. sx (144)-

    We have enough educated people. What we need now are goodly numbers of people who can kill, and kill in quantity.

    That requires physical fitness and a completely sociopathic mindset. I suspect we have adequate numbers of young people who fill both requirements.

  161. chicagofinance says:

    STFU….teachers go into the profession for reasons other than pay, so your well meaning incentives are useless; crawl back into your troll hole fukball…..

    Essex says:
    July 1, 2011 at 8:16 pm
    142. I don’t see it. Other than a first in first out policy which they all pretty much accept going into it, the jobs they represent are pretty important to the whole country. The pay actually needs to be higher if they want to attract better tier of student into the world of education.

  162. Only things I’m interested in teaching are how to crush a windpipe with one blow and how to empty and reload an M-16 on the super jiffy.

    Oh…I’d also be happy to teach a course on trapping, cooking and surviving on a diet of small game and foraged greens.

  163. cobbler says:

    chi [164]
    Well, on a margin more stronger candidates will be attracted if the pay gets better, right now the average SAT of the students getting education degrees is the 2nd lowest of all college majors… and stronger teachers can work with larger classes so the taxpayer actually saves money… also fewer good teachers would quit after only a few years on the job

  164. Shore Guy says:

    “What we need now are goodly numbers of people who can kill, and kill in quantity.”

    Most cities seem to have a fair number of people who have this “skill.”

  165. Ann Guhl says:

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  167. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    Same Jose Reyes, Same Mets, Same Results.

  168. Essex says:

    All that we do now is make wars, create weaponry to sell, and generally try to impose our pathetic values on other countries. We actually need the opposite. We need to retool and somehow create a nation capable of greatness. We had the field to ourselves after WWII but somehow got lazy and lost the automotive business to other countries and decided we don’t need manufacturing so that offshore now. Everything ‘wrong’ here has been coming for a long time.

  169. All we need to do is kill half the people in Asia. The rest will fix itself.

  170. Neanderthal Economist says:

    In order to do mass manufacturing in a global economy you’ve got to be low budget, barefoot and desperate. 90% of our population have become suit wearing bankers and realtors. Do we really see ourselves going back to the factory to make tshirts and batteries for 1/2 the pay and twice the work? Even if we embrace the lower wages and harsher conditions, our environmental laws will ensure that its not cost effective. The manufacturing thing is always a dillema, hasn’t england gotten away from manufacturing 40 years before us?

  171. Kettle1^2 says:

    Hobo

    that’s easy, we just need to foment a hot war between India and china, the rest of SE Asia would promptly be drawn in by a few well placed false flag events which we are quite proficient at. Next thing you know there are a few billion dead and or starving lying around.

    As O says Yes we can!

  172. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [175] 250k

    Actually, for a house walking distance to the train station, on a side street, that isn’t bad. If I were looking now, I would look at it.

    As for carpet, I’ve seen worse. Much worse. Rip it up and replace it. Duh.

  173. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Wow, CNN must be nervous about losing the uber-left viewers to MSNBC.

    Watched a CNN anchor named TJ Holmes absolutely beating up on a republican Minnesota state rep named Zeller (?). No pretense of objective reporting left in the tone or questions. And as hard as he tried, the rep. was able to beat back all of the attacks in that calm, civil Minnesota manner. TJ was practically foaming at the mouth, Chris Matthews style, but without the backstab snark characteristic of MSNBC. And he did finish politely, but it was practically an ambush. I don’t think that the MN GOP contingent will be agreeing to interviews with Holmes anytime soom.

    If he watched it, Jamil would be having a coronary right now.

  174. Essex says:

    175. Nice home. Carpet only protected the wood floors — check em out underneath. If they are in good shape or in the case of my place that had blue carpeting everywhere and ‘new’ wood floors beneath. It is a good thing the carpeting was in place.

  175. Essex says:

    England used to make decent things. Not any more and now London is in shambles and overrun with immigrants much to the dismay of long time residents. We may not be far behind.

  176. 3b says:

    The most galling thing about the public sector unions is that it’s members will not even admit that they have a great deal. In their minds they deserve it all, and more, and they do not care who pays for it.

  177. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [116] moose

    The chinese would be concerned for the same reason the left is concerned. Anything that smacks of secession, or even anything that opens the door slightly to secession, raises the spectre of dissolution, in whole or in part.

    Imagine if conservative states were able to force a constititutional convention, and one of the planks would be to enshrine a right for a state to repudiate its ratification. The threat is that a state that secedes in some future secession owes NOTHING to the bondholders. The state did not sign the note. And if the citizens of said state renounce their citizenship, then they don’t owe either.

    Now, if Montana seceded, that is a hit, but not a knockout. Texas would be a knockout, especially since a lot of other states west of the Mississipi would join them. It would be a rush to the exits, and the remaining states would be faced with the choice of seceding or getting slammed with the debt and defaulting.

    Thus, a constititutional convention would be the first step on the road to dissolution and default.

  178. 3b says:

    #179 The natives followed them home.

  179. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    SX,

    I agree. Test will be whether that house goes UC before the weekend is out. Only location issue I see is proximity to Central Ave. and all of that traffic and low-income housing (essentially borders Worstfield).

  180. 3b says:

    #181 I am not a constitutioanl expert by any stretch. Bur from my readings I have never seen it explicitly stated that states cannot leave the union. It appears to me as a free association of states. Free in my interpertation would also mean free to leave this association if a state chose to.

  181. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [181] redux

    I can also easily envision a scenario where the right could actually get leftwing states to agree to a constitutional convention by false flag means, e.g., get leftist issues enshrined in the constitution.

    The resulting conflagration in the convention would almost certainly spark a low-intensity civil war.

  182. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [184] 3b

    Texas v. White.

    But here is an interesting take on it: http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig11/stanley-b1.1.1.html

  183. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I am glad that I saw this coming and prepared for it. Didn’t prepare particularly well, but I did prepare:

    “Whether BigLaw lawyers, boutique specialists or solo practitioners, U.S. lawyers can expect slower rates of market growth that will only intensify competitive pressures and produce a shakeout of weaker competitors and slimmer profit margins industrywide. Law students will find ever-more-limited opportunity for the big-salary score, but more jobs in legal services outside the big firms. Associates’ paths upward will fade as firms strain to keep profits per partner up by keeping traditional leverage down.

    And those who wish to rise above the disruption will have to deal with technology that swallows billable work, a world market that takes the competition international, and a more sophisticated corporate client with vast knowledge available at the click of a mouse.

    The biggest problem affecting U.S. lawyers is a failure to understand the origins of our own success. For nearly a century, industry after industry underwent dramatic transformation while lawyers continued to ply their artisan trade. Many lawyers prospered under this conservative path because the substance of what they did was too important to an increasingly complex, interconnected economy.

    No more. As the balance of power shifts from traditional law firms and toward clients and a raft of tech-savvy legal services vendors, the price of continued prosperity for lawyers is going to be innovation and doing more with less. ”

    snip

  184. 3b says:

    #187 And I know a few young people who are taking refuge in law school for the next 3 years , many because of the current job market,and none of them are even sure they want to be lawyers. They simply figure if they get the degree they will make bg bucks when they come out. More debt on top of the college debt.

  185. 3b says:

    #186 Thanks.

  186. toomuchchange says:

    #11 – ConfusedinNJ

    For the past two years the American public has been remarkably on target with identifying jobs and the economy as our #1 problem. This poll is another example of this. That 4 of out of 10 people think we’re in a permanent decline is bad enough; that no one in charge seems to be doing anything about it — except ignoring and denying the problem — is worse.

    How can we explain the fact that the same American public which see our economic present and future with such clarity is so capable of lying to itself? How can so many Americans believe they’re on a sinking ship yet be remain so passive? Are we really going to go down without a fight?

    These are really strange days.

  187. JC says:

    250K #175: Somewhere in that mess is a fabulous Arts & Crafts foursquare screaming to get out. Nothing a good sander and some polyurethane couldn’t cure.

    3b: Went for my morning constitutional today and found myself on Bergen Avenue in WT. The house you’re interested in looks pretty nice…not updated but maintained well. Might need some roof and gutter work. The neighborhood is great — very quiet, the house backs up to woods. If you look at the satellite view on Google Maps. you’ll see what may be a brook going through that woods. You would want to look into that to see if flooding is an issue. It might be if this is part of the same system that goes back through the part of Hillsdale and Westwood that flooded during the heavy rains we had recently.

    You might also want to check out this one on Fern St., just around the corner:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/photos/3054942272-112-Fern-St-Washington-Township-NJ-07676#item-22

    The Adams St. house was just reduced today to $389K and except for that heinous bathroom seems to be one of the most updated of all the properties for sale in that range; the other one being this:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3054006058-Single-Family-Home-Washington-Township-NJ-07676

  188. JC says:

    Nom #177: Is that why CNN’s Jessica Yellin yesterday asked Gene Sperline why Obama doesn’t just cave and give the Republicans everything they want?

  189. 3b says:

    #192 JC Do yoy know how the West/Wash reg school system is funded??

  190. 3b says:

    #191 Thanks for al the info update. Did not get a chance to drive areoudn Wt today, tomorrow, so maybe at soem point on Mondy. Also going to try and find the one with the pool.

  191. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Jc, those $4 handles are shocking given that the homes are the size of postage stamps. Are you sure those links aren’t from 2005?

  192. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    Same Softie Jose Reyes, Same Softie Mets, Same Softie Results.

  193. Mikeinwaiting says:

    JC I have no doubt that the homes in the range you are posting are in line there so to speak. That being said it would be a cold day in hell when I’d pay 400k for them.

  194. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b if that is what your choices are rent. At 400 you should be able to get something a hell of a lot nicer. Guess I’m just use to the prices up here. It is totally insane they are 150-200k houses at best. And just whom do these people think are going to buy these homes at 400k with 10k taxes I presume. Their are not enough people making enough money to absorb all these insanely priced homes. It is going to be a long ride home for the whole country.

  195. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto take a look through GSMLS for Vernon in Sussex you will see why I am so astounded. I know we are out there but still 400 for those.

  196. Confused In NJ says:

    190.toomuchchange says:
    July 2, 2011 at 2:13 pm
    #11 – ConfusedinNJ

    For the past two years the American public has been remarkably on target with identifying jobs and the economy as our #1 problem. This poll is another example of this. That 4 of out of 10 people think we’re in a permanent decline is bad enough; that no one in charge seems to be doing anything about it — except ignoring and denying the problem — is worse.

    How can we explain the fact that the same American public which see our economic present and future with such clarity is so capable of lying to itself? How can so many Americans believe they’re on a sinking ship yet be remain so passive? Are we really going to go down without a fight?

    These are really strange days

    Very strange indeed. The Inmates are running the Asylum.

  197. Linda says:

    RE 187/188
    My 24 y/o daughter has several friend that went right from undergraduate to Law school, of course taking all that debt with them. Only one wants to be a lawyer and one of the others would be more than happy to live as a trophy wife…only time will tell how all that washes out.

  198. cobbler says:

    mike [199]
    Eventually the distribution of the home prices statewide will match the distribution of incomes of the share of families potentially expected to be homeowners (say, remove the bottom 40% of the incomes) ; obviously, upper tails on the incomes will be fatter as a billionaire can afford but normally doesn’t need a billion $$ house. I think we have somewhere around 12% of returns in NJ above 150K – that means that roughly 12% of the houses in the state, maybe 10 or 15%, can be at 450K or above. Segregation will likely be more by location than by the features of the particular house.

  199. 3b says:

    #95/97/98: Slow down guys. I will not be paying 400k or more for those houses. I fully expect to be able to get houses like JC has posted in the 325-350k range tops over the next 12 months. One of the houses JC and I were discussing,listed at 449k which is of course is way too high sold for 535K!!!!!! in late 2005. That right there is indicative of the insanity the housing bubble was.

  200. 3b says:

    #10 Just don’t know who these kids are going to pay all the bdebt off. They will nto be buying houses any time soon. Current homeowners are you listening?? Or as gary would any questions.

  201. 3b says:

    #204 Or as gary would say any questions????

  202. cobbler says:

    3b[204]
    Most people never learn. The friend is stuck with the house in Hamilton (job changed from Princeton to Fairlawn) being 70K underwater on his mortgage. Prefers suffering the commute to bringing a bag of cash to the closing. Despite seeing this, his kiddo buying a condo in Hoboken with his GF – and the guy thinks the juniors are making a smart decision!

  203. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cobbler “Segregation will likely be more by location than by the features of the particular house.” I gather you are correct judging by the price of those homes. Now 10-15% above 450k OK, I wonder what % we are at now.

  204. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 203 I know you are on your game but buddy but the asking prices for those homes are insane. 300k tops man, I wonder what that comes to a Sq. Ft on those.

  205. Mikeinwaiting says:

    One less but!

  206. Fabius Maximus says:

    On a beach with my Ameriacan Girl, kids, cold beer waiting for fireworks with Tom Petty on the PA. It don’t get much better than this.
    Happy 4th weekend.

  207. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Miw, sq ft on the second link for $399k looks about 1,200 including basement. Not to mention front looks like mobile home. 3b will not be buying those, im sure. 3b do you need to stay close to job? Why not go out west by miw where homes are half price, you can act like the main character in that show ‘flipping las vegas’.

  208. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Veto for 300k you could have a real nice place (4bd 2.5 bth 1 acre.) taxes 9 k. For 2-250 less land 3 BDS & 2BH, I am just stuck on paying 130 for 3bds 2 bth on 2/3 an acre in 98 and will wait till I get it again. Can’t get tomorrows price today but you can get yesteryears price tomorrow if you are willing to wait.

  209. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fabius, sounds good enjoy.

  210. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b yes come on up, I guarantee you will never want to go back. Kids are done with school so why not. Still can visit Mom in Hudson Cty. on Sunday, 1 hour ride. Full disclosure that is on Sunday forget if you have to go into the city every day.

  211. Al Mossberg says:

    “England used to make decent things. Not any more and now London is in shambles and overrun with immigrants much to the dismay of long time residents. We may not be far behind.”

    Yeah. Im getting sick of these pot bellied illegal Mexicans ruining my 4th of July weekend. Get the f_ck out of my country you diabetic bums.

  212. Al Mossberg says:

    181,

    Nom,

    Although appetizing I dont think it will happen. The key looking forward is preservation of wealth and mobility.

  213. Al Mossberg says:

    190.

    Toomuchchange,

    The passivity of Ameria is perplexing to say the least. I suspect that the next orchestrated crisis will set the keg of gunpowder on fire. When the masses realize the futility of protesting and votes then the countdown to the next step begins.

  214. Al Mossberg says:

    203.

    3b,

    Does that mean you wont be buying my overtaxed crap shack for 400k!

    Dam you. Dam everyone.

    I wanted to sell this shitb_x to Gary but he wouldnt bite. Maybe hobo and his gang will do me a favor and burn it down.

  215. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ok, I’m not going to say a thing read the title go to the link.

    The Coming Housing Boom

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/277673-the-coming-housing-boom

  216. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Come on you needed a laugh. I love this part.

    “This is not to say that any of this is imminent. More likely than not, the process could take a few more years. Yet unless you believe the United States is on a permanent trajectory toward economic decline, you have to believe that the housing market will eventually turn around. All that pent up demand for household formation should create a strong rebound in the demand for housing. Maybe this time if we are smart enough to keep our wits about us, we will avoid another housing bubble.”

    Give the man a cigar “unless”, he got it in the last paragraph

  217. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    Is Jose Reyes playing today? Oh yeah he hurt his hamstring. Good luck trading him now. Nobody listens.

  218. JC says:

    3b #203: Was talking with DH yesterday about things that absolutely must be done to this house. I made a point of calling the house a “piggybank” rather than an “investment.” We settled on “asset”, though even that is questionable. I find myself wondering if it is possible for a 4’10” woman to rip out a vanity and toilet, pry up the old tile floor, put down new subfloor, lay new floor, and reinstall everything. Of course patching the plaster in the ceiling from $1500 worth of upstairs plumbing leak repair earlier this year is best left to the pros.

    My POS cape has more square footage than any of these houses (full dormer upstairs with 2 big bedrooms and a partially updated bath) and appraisal was $360K. All of the houses I linked to are crazily priced, and all will come down if the sellers are really interested in selling. I expect them all to sit for a while.

  219. JC says:

    3b #194: Which one with the pool? Perhaps I can locate it for you if you post the listing link.

  220. gluteus (212)-

    They should send that crew to a Magpies game. The true Geordies will beat them bloody before they even enter the park.

  221. Essex says:

    By Michael Hiltzik

    July 3, 2011
    By all accounts, BMW’s parts distribution warehouse in Ontario was one of the jewels of the company’s system.

    Supplying dealer service departments throughout Southern California, Arizona and Nevada, it received gold medals from BMW for its efficiency and employed several of the top-ranked workers in the country. In the roughly 40 years its workers had been represented by the Teamsters union, there had never been a labor stoppage.

    Michael Hiltzik
    Michael Hiltzik
    E-mail | Recent columns
    Related
    California employers drop 29,200 jobs in May California employers drop 29,200 jobs in May
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    Times being what they are, when a Teamsters committee came to the plant in early June to open negotiations over a new contract to start Sept. 1, they thought they might be asked to accept minuscule wage increases and maybe some givebacks on health coverage.

    They were stunned by what they heard instead: As of Aug. 31, the plant would be outsourced to an unidentified third-party logistics company and all but three of its 71 employees laid off.

    The union contract will be terminated. Some of the employees might be offered jobs with the new operator, but there are no guarantees. And no one expects the new bosses will match the existing $25 hourly scale or the health benefits provided now.

    The average seniority of employees at Ontario is about 20 years; five have spent 30 years or more at Ontario or its predecessor warehouse in Carson. Of the employees to be laid off (according to a notice BMW sent the union), 27 are age 50 or older. The word that came most often to the lips of workers and their families I’ve talked to is “devastated.”

    “The hardest thing I ever had to do in my life was to look my family in the eyes and tell them that after 32 years I’m out of a job,” says Tim Kitchen, who at 53 is the longest-serving employee at the warehouse. The esprit de corps that once prevailed in the warehouse is gone, he says. “You walk in there now, it’s like a morgue.” Early retirement isn’t an option; Kitchen still has two kids’ college educations to pay for.

    Every working American should be dismayed by — and afraid of — what BMW is doing.

    These employees exemplified the best qualities of the American worker. They devoted their working lives to BMW, at a time when it was building and solidifying its U.S. beachhead. Their wages, with benefits, paid for a reasonable middle-class lifestyle if they managed it carefully. Throw in the job security they were encouraged to expect, and they had the confidence to make sacrifices and investments that contributed to the economy for the long term, like college education for the kids, an addition on the house, a new baby. Then one day they were handed a mass pink slip, effective in a matter of weeks.

    The harvest will be weighed in foreclosed homes, college educations deferred or abandoned, new cars left in the dealers’ lots (BMWs not excepted) and consumer goods on the shelf, one more little cascade of blows to the U.S. economy.

    Miguel Carpinteyro, 42, had 14 years with BMW and every expectation of retiring there. In the backyard of their home in the San Bernardino County community of Highland, he and his wife, Jerri, just finished building a pool, which is good therapy for their two autistic sons. A daughter has a heart condition requiring frequent medical visits.

    The family put money aside for retirement through a 401(k), but they may have to tap that to live on, never mind paying their medical bills without employer-sponsored insurance. Their household budget, based on a BMW wage, can’t be sustained on much less. “We’ll probably end up losing the house,” Jerri told me.

    Many of the BMW employees can boast of tenures stretching back to the bygone era when a job was more than a job. The longevity of the workforce tells you that good wages and benefits kept turnover at the plant low — when companies cared about keeping turnover low. Some can measure their loyalty to BMW in the kids’ ballgames and dance recitals they missed over the years because the company needed them to pull double shifts. Will workers employed by an outsourcing contractor and earning closer to minimum wage do the same? To ask the question is to answer it.

    BMW says for the record that it’s “very much aware of its legal obligations and corporate responsibilities.” The company will negotiate with the Teamsters over severance but won’t discuss that or other transitional issues in public. It notes that it still employs 10,000 people in California, including those at two vehicle technology centers and Newbury Park-based BMW DesignworksUSA, and says that number might grow in the future.

    The company doesn’t concede that it’s outsourcing the Ontario plant to save money on wages. It says it brought in outside logistic contractors at Ontario and four of its other five parts depots nationwide because it prefers to focus on its “core expertise” of engineering and making cars. Of course, nonunion workforces generally receive lower pay and benefits than union — that’s the power of collective bargaining — so the math is hardly a secret.

    If there are operational efficiencies to be gained from the outsourcing, as BMW contends, the firm presumably expects them to translate into higher profits, but it won’t be sharing the money with the warehouse workers. Among the most likely beneficiaries are its shareholders — maybe via another dividend boost on top of the $950-million raise the company gave them out of its $4.7-billion profit last year.

    BMW’s defenders will point out that the company has a perfect legal right to outsource any jobs it wishes. Fair enough. Yet by the same token, American taxpayers had a perfect legal right to tell BMW to drop dead when the firm’s credit arm asked the Federal Reserve for a low-interest $3.6-billion loan during the 2008 financial crisis. BMW got the money then because U.S. policymakers saw a larger issue at stake: saving the economy from going over a cliff. Just as there’s a larger issue involved at Ontario, which is saving the American middle class from going over the same cliff.

    The Ontario union, Teamsters Local 495, got Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) and Reps. Joe Baca (D-Rialto) and Loretta Sanchez (D-Garden Grove) to write painfully polite letters to Jim O’Donnell, chairman of BMW North America, asking him to reconsider. When I say that’s the least they could do, I’m talking literally — it’s the very least. How about hauling him before a televised hearing and having him balance out a $3.6-billion taxpayer loan with the firing of 70 American workers? The company surely wouldn’t characterize its federal loan as charity, but neither is maintaining its parts distribution workers on a living wage.

    It’s fashionable to observe today that the loyalty the BMW workers gave their employer was naive; complain to manufacturing CEOs about their remorseless hollowing out of middle-class livelihoods to maintain payouts to shareholders, and the answer you get is that this is merely the way of our hyper-competitive modern world. Nothing personal; it’s the tyranny of the marketplace.

    Yet what gives BMW the freedom to convert good American middle-class jobs into low-wage piecework is the evaporation of American workers’ power of collective action. The labor lawyer and writer Thomas Geoghegan contends that BMW could never outsource union jobs like this in its home country, Germany, where union solidarity extending from the professional staff down to the shop floor would stomp the living daylights out of the very idea. “Foreign companies know there’s no solidarity here,” he says.

    On Monday, the Fourth of July, Americans will gather to celebrate the overthrow of tyranny. But the ease with which we allow corporate employers to impoverish their loyal workers should make us pause under the fireworks and think about how over the ensuing 235 years we’ve simply substituted one set of tyrants for another, the new ones immeasurably more heartless and bloodthirsty than the ones we shed.

  222. chicagofinance says:

    Hick boy…..WTF with this crap? If these BMW workers are worth their skill set, then they can go out and find another job. If they have trouble, it is obvious that BMW made the logical decision. The author is a buffoon……and futher you are a cesspool of human waste….

  223. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Read Essex’s 226 then go back to my 220 & 221. It is not doom & gloom it is reality, pant up demand from where, the kids of these workers? Years ago I worked at a Volvo parts dist. center (PDC) , teamsters payed well ran like a top. I have also run operations (trucking end) at Nissan & Toyota. Nissan was a total cluster F**K , Toyota much better than Nissan but not at the Volvo level. We also did Ford but I was never sent there as you can imagine ,cluster f**k plus reported by my counter parts. I do not think that just because it was teamsters it was better it was the mind sent of the management as well, my point is things can run very well in a union shop.

  224. 3b says:

    #211 Have to stay closer for job, and spouses job. As over priced as those listings still are they have come down, and so while the prices are still in the denial (but falling) stage those listings compare far more favorably to many listings in River Edge where some sellers are still in the delusional statge. More importantly from my perspective taxes are 30% lower (WT) or more than comparable houses in the land of Unicorns.

  225. 3b says:

    Was supposed to be on the beach by now, but rained out; not happy.

  226. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Chi come on it is a skill set unique to that job. We in the past had manufacturing jobs or distribution ones that payed decent now they are disappearing. This hurts us all don’t be so glib.

  227. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 229 Oh well I guess you ain’t headed my way.
    3b 232 at least you are getting some house for your money on that one. Going to need some work, my god that kitchen.

  228. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Rain rain go away come on back another day (when everyone is working!).

  229. Juice Box says:

    re #222 – lol

  230. 3b says:

    #233 Mike: the commute from you to downtown NYC?? Sorry that cannot be. I would pay 350k tops for that house.

  231. 3b says:

    #234 I could do the beach tomorrow, but than the traffic coming back to nprth Jersey would destroy the therapeutic efffects of a day on the beach.

  232. Juice Box says:

    re #232 – 3b – I am sitting in my house with the kids going crazy. I bought them one if these watersides for some fun, and they can’t even use it, no beach day the rain will be coming down all day.

    http://assets.academy.com/mgen/30/10147830.jpg?is=500,500

    Tried to get in a few miles on my bike too this morning and it was raining too hard, might have to spend the afternoon hiding in the basement!

  233. 3b says:

    #238 Juice How bad in your opinion will traffic be coming back tomorrow?

  234. gary says:

    I’ll say it again: in the next few years, virtually everything we do for a living will be based on per diem with no benefits. If you work, you get paid; don’t work, you don’t get paid. Everything will be a series of temp jobs.

  235. Juice Box says:

    re #239 – No traffic going down on Friday during rush hour for me sailed here in an hour, the rest of the family came late Friday night with no traffic. My brother who came down Saturday morning from your neck of the woods took about an extra 45 minutes to get here, not too bad considering he was driving with the day trippers. We are all staying until tomorrow. I may leave around 3 PM to avoid the traffic from further South Jersey. I think there will be no issues from here, since after Belmar it is 5 lanes etc. The big difference these days may be due to the the Easy Pass lanes, I remember years ago waiting a 1/2 hour or more to drop in 35 cents at each toll booth and all of the rubber necking and accidents caused by the toll booth traffic.

  236. 3b says:

    #141 We may chance it tomorrow.

  237. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I wonder how long before public schools start dumping unions contracts to outsource math/science teachers to asia?

  238. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Or visa temps from asia…

  239. jamil says:

    74 Anon:
    “Flatly prohibited by the Constitution. Art. IV:Sec. 3 “No new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State”

    Didn’t you get the memo? Constitution is a living document subject to the whatever we say. Besides, President of the United States, the constitutional law expert, Smartest President and Greatest Orator in history, has already declared we have at least 57 states. One of these 57 states could be State of South California.

    Besides, what the failed state of California or feds are going to do?

    Send in the troops who would shoot the local militia/police/national guard units?

    South California could easily simply form the state, set up some roadblocks, and continue collecting only local city and property taxes. No federal or state taxes. Maybe Cindy Sheenan or Jimmy Carter can negotiate peace deal between the feds and South California.

    There is no chance military would follow orders from Obama to shoot during the remaining months of his miserable presidency and President Bachmann/Palin is going to be fine with the secession, or simply pushing the statehood through.

  240. gary says:

    Or visa temps from asia…

    It’s happening enmasse and the fat, bloated, Amerikan Idle proletarians haven’t a clue.

  241. gary says:

    jamil,

    Hang on… I sense some hope and change coming. :o

  242. Essex says:

    Sic gloria transit.

  243. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [238];

    Good for you (and your kids) and I’m sure they’re all happy — or at least will be if they get to use it — but that is a truly awful photoshop by the Mfr. It reminds me of the three Chinese officials floating over the newly constructed road (http://www.giantrobot.com/wp-media-uploads/FakeOfficialsOriginal-600×214.jpg).

  244. JC says:

    3b #232: That house has been a rental for quite a while, as far as I know. Not sure about since August 2008, but I used to come home from work that way every day until then and there was always a for rent sign out. That pool looks nasty.

    The house is on Colonial Boulevard north of Washington Avenue, near the Hillsdale border. It’s not a busy street, but it is a through street, and drivers do tend to speed. Take a look if you want, but it doesn’t seem like a great bet to me at anything over maybe $325K….if that. That house is going to need a ton of work….and for that kind of work, it’s too bad you didn’t get into the foreclosure at the corner of Colonial and Waashington that went for $275K a few months ago.

  245. JC says:

    gary #240: And this is a good thing for this country….how?

  246. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    No Reyes = Mets Win.

  247. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Essex, this is for you… its for the children.
    The Christie Reform Agenda: Putting New Jersey’s Children First By Challenging the System (Unions)
    Demanding Accountability, Rewarding Highly-Effective Teachers and Empowering Parents

    Governor Christie has outlined a package of reforms to improve New Jersey public schools by challenging the status quo and transforming a system that has fallen behind. The Governor’s reforms will fundamentally alter New Jersey’s education system to make teacher effectiveness and student achievement the driving forces behind every policy and practice.

    Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda will move public education in New Jersey away from an antiquated, ineffective model that props up failing schools and toward a system that demands accountability, rewards highly effective teachers, utilizes performance measures and ensures each and every child receives the quality education they deserve.

    Improving Public Schools By Rewarding Effective, High-Quality Teachers and Demanding Accountability in the Classroom

    Rewarding Innovative, Effective and High-Quality Teachers. New Jersey needs to attract and retain effective teachers, especially in the state’s most challenging schools and districts.

    Today, teacher compensation is determined by years of service or degree and credit accumulation, neither of which accurately measures a teacher’s effectiveness in the classroom. Further, many current collective bargaining contracts stand in the way of efforts to reward teachers who are getting results, pushing limitations or working in challenging environments.

    Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda turns the current system inside out and finally puts effective, quality teaching ahead of seniority and lackluster results:

    •Prohibiting salary schedules or compensation policies that reward seniority alone;

    •Prohibiting the use of graduate degree accumulation as a basis, in and of itself, for salary increases, except in areas where graduate degrees have proven to be effective markers of improved teacher performance such as math and science;

    •Granting schools and districts the flexibility to reward excellence in the classroom and to attract high-quality teachers to low-performing schools or hard-to-fill positions.
    Expanding Opportunities for Great Teachers to Succeed. Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda expands opportunities available to teachers. Presently, the primary way for a teacher to achieve higher compensation outside of the seniority-based salary guide is to receive graduate credits or to follow a lengthy, cumbersome path to becoming a principal or administrator. Teachers who are innovating and getting results, but wish to stay in the classroom, are given few opportunities to advance professionally. Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda changes that.

    •Establishing New Credentials and Career Ladders. With the designations of “Master Teacher” and “Master Principal,” these new credentials will provide the opportunity for highly effective teachers to utilize their skills and experience in a variety of additional ways, including mentoring, professional development of peers, or founding a charter school.

    •Expanding Opportunities to Receive Updated Certification. This plan will increase the number of alternate route programs for principals and update certification requirements to align with the attainment of skills needed to be an effective leader.
    Demanding Accountability and Results for New Jersey’s Children. The Christie Reform plan puts an end to policies that reward teachers who fail over teachers who succeed by measuring performance and paying higher salaries for it.

    •Improving Teacher and Leader Effectiveness with Data-Supported Evaluations. Through executive order, Governor Christie will convene the Task Force on Teacher Effectiveness to define and evaluate teacher and leader effectiveness based on key guiding principles. The Task Force will be charged with recommending a system that elevates the role of student learning in evaluations and fairly and transparently assesses teacher and principal performance.

    ◦The Task Force will develop a system of evaluations and definition of educator effectiveness based on multiple measurements of student learning that will comprise at least 50% of the evaluation.
    ◦Evaluations will be developed with broad stakeholder input so the unique needs and circumstances of schools and districts are recognized. Evaluations will provide for locally selected, state-reviewed measurements of progress that are widely-recognized as relating directly to improvements in school climate, teacher effectiveness and student learning.
    ◦The Task Force will be given flexibility to consider additional local input of other measurements of effectiveness for use in the evaluations.
    Ensuring Our Children Have Well-Prepared Teachers. Teacher preparation remains a national problem, but is especially serious in New Jersey’s teacher preparation programs. A 2009 study by the well-respected National Council on Teacher Quality gave New Jersey a grade of D for teacher preparation. Elementary teachers who do not possess a minimum knowledge of the subject matter continue to receive teaching certificates.

    •Mandating that K-5 and P-3 grade teacher preparation programs administer tests in the science of reading and math knowledge, in addition to the Praxis test, as a requirement for teacher certification.
    Empowering Parents with Access to Quality Data and Additional Outreach Efforts

    Governor Christie recognizes that through empowerment, parents can become better advocates for quality education for their children and increase accountability in our schools. Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda will empower parents to make more informed decisions about their children’s education by providing greater transparency and accountability

    •Engaging Families in Their Children’s Education with Improved Access to Information. Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda will create greater accountability in New Jersey schools by empowering parents with access to data, including student achievement in the classroom and teacher evaluations via the NJ SMART data system.

    •Improving Outreach and Communications Efforts to Parents and Families. Governor Christie’s Reform Agenda will increase
    parental involvement through greater outreach and communications efforts, including parent-focused tools such as a help-desk, website, mailings and forums. These tools will be used to educate parents about their rights, responsibilities, opportunities, options and school performance.
    http://www.state.nj.us/education/reform/

  248. Kettle1^2 says:

    Veto

    sounds like a great start on paper. But will it even resemble that plan by the time it sees the light of day? If it does then it would be a critical blowtorch the current entrenchedunion favratism model

  249. Kettle1^2 says:

    Did some one mention mortgage forgiveness?

    Banks Commence Wholesale, Unsolicited Mortgage-Debt Forgiveness
    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/03/2011 12:07 -0400

    It was just a matter of time before wholesale debt-forgiveness became the primary source of wealth in the US. The time is now. The NYT reports that “big banks are going to borrowers who are not even in default and cutting their debt or easing the mortgage terms, sometimes with no questions asked. Two of the nation’s biggest lenders, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are quietly modifying loans for tens of thousands of borrowers who have not asked for help but whom the banks deem to be at special risk.” To be deemed in “special risk” one needs to simply have an Option ARM mortgage, and be underwater, even if still current on mortgage payments. End result: an up to 50% cut in the actual mortgage obligation. To wit: “Ms. Giosmas, who lives in Miami, was not in default on her $300,000 loan. She did not understand why she would receive this gift — although she wasted no time in taking it. Before Chase shaved $150,000 off her mortgage, Ms. Giosmas owed much more on her place than it was worth. It was a fate she shared with a quarter of all homeowners with mortgages across the nation. Being underwater, as it is called, can prevent these owners from moving and taking new jobs, and places the households at greater risk of foreclosure.” Whether this is a strategic step by the banks who wish to avoid tens if not hundreds of billions in fraudclosure and putback related legal costs, charges and reserves is for now unclear, although all signs point to yes. Next up: everyone in America stops paying their mortgage, or demands a 50% haircut on existing debt, now that the example has been made. And in the meantime, banks will somehow continue to keep the mortgages, which they have now cut by up to half, at par on their books following some brand new, thoroughly senseless announcement by the FASB which says banks can mark anything to whatever price they chose in perpetuity. Because otherwise, the TBTF lenders will suddenly find themselves in a massive deficiency on their Tier 1 capital, also known as completely insolvent.

  250. Kettle1^2 says:

    Miw

    mortgage forgiveness is a sign of that impending housing boom you linked to, right?

  251. Kettle1^2 says:

    Everyone have a safe and happy 4th of July holiday.

    Something to ponder over the holiday;

    “We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness — That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government …”

  252. jamil says:

    255, no doubt this is paid by taxpayers. What a sick society, but this is the change people voted for, some even multiple times.

  253. cobbler says:

    kettle [255]
    If the 25% who are underwater have the banks reset their mortgages to say 95% LTE it will eliminate the strategic foreclosures altogether, and reduce other FC significantly. If in the banks’ judgement the loss they take on the immediate haircuts is less than what they expect to suffer by having non-performing loans for several years and then spending money on FC process and property rehab, it is a sound decision – as long as their reserves afford such a haircut. In fact, the original intention of TARP was to buy the bad mortgages from the banks and have them rewritten for the reduced valuations.

  254. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket 256 Of course banks are giving 50% mortgage cut because we are a few years give or take from pant up demand creating a boom in RE, LOLROF.

  255. Kettle1^2 says:

    Cobbler

    thAt stratergy puts you well over the cliff of moral hazard. You think that plan won’t spur some serious secondary strTegic defaulting? And what happens if/ when the market falls further, a second round of reductions?

  256. cobbler says:

    kettle [253]
    This document sounds suspiciously similar to what the Communist Party of the Soviet Union had been publishing after its late Brezhnev’s era party congresses – same extent of realism, similar choice of slogans. Very naive to think that after spitting in Sweeney’s face this agenda will get the Governor anywhere.

  257. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cobbler 259 if they saw any value they would take them, banks are not giving anything away they are dumping them on the owner. They book a 25 to 50% loss & let the people keep the property, right. This should be shouting out to us that RE is in deep sh*t for a hell of a long time.

  258. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ket 261 On one thing I trust the banks, looking out for their own interest. If they are giving you a reduction it is not in your benefit.

  259. cobbler says:

    kettle [261]
    I don’t know the pricing for REO properties in FL, but it is likely to be way less than 50% of the initial loan amounts on average, so the bank may gain from a 50% haircut. Also, from what I am reading cost to rent there is now the same or higher than PITI for non-REO in many places. In such situation there is little benefit for the debtor in re-defaulting (can’t even squat for long as FL kicks you out rather soon). In NJ I doubt the banks will be acting like this because renting here is still much cheaper than owning, and because of the huge shadow inventory which presses the prices down even if the new foreclosures are reduced.

  260. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Mortgage principal forgiveness is one of the few programs that works. Now that citi is going to $50/share they can afford to write a bunch down.

  261. cobbler says:

    mike [263]
    They certainly don’t see value based on their experience selling REO properties, if they have 300 K loan on the books and such houses in spic-and-span shape are selling at 150K, bank will likely get 60K or less for the trashed and molded-up property, and they also have legal costs, etc. They don’t have to foresee the further price decline, they just need to be reasonably sure that there will be no meaningful appreciation – which is obvious to everyone unless they live under the rock.

  262. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Very naive to think that after spitting in Sweeney’s face this agenda will get the Governor anywhere.”
    cobbler, can you believe the nerve of the governor to attempt to actually fix or improve education? (sarcasm) Sweeney and his union thugs better stop him or next he’ll try to reduce property taxes.

  263. Mikeinwaiting says:

    The never ending story, but watch out when it does.

    Immediate Greek default prevented, outlook fragile

    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1369714-immediate-greek-default-prevented-outlook-fragile

    While the renewed commitments save Greece from immediate collapse, even its international creditors _ long the biggest optimists on the country’s prospects _ are warning that getting down a debt of 160 percent of economic output will be a difficult balancing act.

    “The Greek government debt will remain for many years at a high level and, therefore, subject to possible adverse developments that cannot be predicted,” the European Commission, the EU’s executive and one of the three institutions in charge of Greece’s bailout, said in a report published Saturday.

    For the first time, the Commission’s report also contains a section on debt restructuring _ including a scenario for a 40 percent haircut, a forced reduction in the value of Greek bonds.

    The EU has so far ruled out any haircuts on bonds, and in its report the Commission maintains that the negative consequences of a restructuring would outweigh any gains from debt restructuring.

    A 40 percent haircut would devastate Greek banks, wiping out the capital cushions and triggering massive deposit flight, the Commission warns. Restructuring Greece’s debt also risks “creating a permanent shift in investor sentiment and lead to self-fulfilling prophecies for other vulnerable Member States,” _ shorthand for already bailed out Ireland and Portugal, as well as weak states like Spain or Italy.

  264. Mikeinwaiting says:

    cobbler 267 I understand the banks math, it is a good move for them. Now is it a good move for the person taking it well that not as clear cut.

  265. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “is not”

  266. cobbler says:

    mike [270]
    It is a good move for the mortgagee as long as he/she plans to live in the area, and rents are higher or equal to PITI which seems to be the case now.

  267. cobbler says:

    NE [268]
    The Gov had good cooperation with Sweeney when working on the pension reform. Had he been less noxious in the budget fight (where he acted like he did only to keep his profile up in the Rep national politics), he’d likely have this cooperation on education, as well. Now his education agenda is not worth the hours of the staffer that went into writing up this document.

  268. cobbler says:

    I guess the goat sacrifice is needed for this prayer to have an effect:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-03/home-prices-very-unlikely-to-fall-further-u-s-s-donovan-says.html

    U.S. Home Prices ‘Unlikely’ to Fall Further
    By Kim Chipman – Jul 3, 2011 12:13 PM ET
    Homes in the U.S. are the most affordable they’ve been in decades and prices may start to climb as soon as the third quarter, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said today.
    “It’s very unlikely that we will see a significant further decline,” Donovan said today on CNN. “The real question is when will we start to see sustainable increases. Some think it will be as early as the end of this summer or this fall.”

  269. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Cobbler, for now cc still has the economy and the nj taxpayer on his side. The political chess maneuvers that you describe offer reason why half of trenton needs to be voted out.

  270. cobbler says:

    NE [275]
    for now cc still has the economy and the nj taxpayer on his side
    Not sure about the economy: Christie’s 1.5 years in the office are the fist time in a quarter century when NJ unemployment is higher than the national. Neither should the taxpayer be on his side: cc chooses his targets based on political expediency way ahead of any fiscal considerations. Daggett would have made a much better governor.

  271. Al Mossberg says:

    Christie threw the ball into the munipalities court and the inbreds in my town (with the help of a scum bag mayor) assumed the fetal position. Pathetic. The more hardcore Christie is the more his support will grow. Property taxes are theft and we are at the breaking point.

  272. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [273] cobbler

    Or, since the Dems also decided not to cooperate with Christie (as reported in the Star Ledger), they are shedding crocodile tears. Sweeney is playing one of the few cards he has available to him, and it will play well with the rank and file and his constituents (of which I am not one, either by geography or interests). This is rank Trenton politics at its finest, and if my guy bloodies the other guy’s nose, so be it. In sum, I don’t buy Sweeney’s pain, but if Christie really stabbed him, then so be it. About time someone took the gloves off for the taxpayer.

  273. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [273] cobbler,

    And if the Dems and their supporters want to declare war, in Trenton and on the streets, I am confident that they will find a steely resolve opposing them the likes of which they have not experienced. And they will find that they shed more blood than they draw. Voters are that pissed off.

  274. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [192] JC

    No idea. Did not see it so I can’t comment.

  275. chicagofinance says:

    Jeter is the softie…he ducked the series because he didn’t want to display that he is faded goods in front of the entire city…back in the lineup tomorrow…losing streak anon with him leading off…

    Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:
    July 3, 2011 at 7:44 am
    Is Jose Reyes playing today? Oh yeah he hurt his hamstring. Good luck trading him now. Nobody listens.

  276. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cobbler 274 A goat, a calf & a virgin, that guy is smoking some good sh*t. My lord what an insane call. “The real question is when will we start to see sustainable increases. Some think it will be as early as the end of this summer or this fall.” Have a better chance seeing pigs fly or being solvent for that matter.

  277. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Nom 278 Love him or hate him he isn’t taking prisoners. I find it refreshing, my kind of hard ball.

  278. cobbler says:

    nom [279]
    I am all for the educational reform, but it will not happen unless there is a desire to cooperate on both sides of the isle, cc can’t move it on his own. Sweeney cooperated on pensions (greatly upsetting his union crowd) fully expecting to get something in return from cc. After getting nothing on the budget he will not cooperate on education – because he loses the brownie points with his supporters if he does and doesn’t gain any goodwill from Christie. Besides, nothing in the Gov’s educational proposal benefits the taxpayer, it is primarily a weapon in CC’s war with NJEA. To help on taxes, cc needs to go after removal of language from the state Constitution that resulted in Abbott decisions.

  279. cobbler says:

    mike [283]
    It is cheaper to make people into allies and have them support you than to make them into enemies, wage a war and defeat them.

  280. jamil says:

    285, unions are the enemy, they must be destroyed if the country wants to survive.

    From DSK case it turns out that hotelworker union even runs the hotel maid prostitution scene in ny. Ironic that it came down in 3,000 dollar hotel room when sosialist politician refused to pay his fair share, i.e. the full price.

  281. Jose Reyes is a Softie Hehehe says:

    Chi,

    You have the mistaken belief that I am a Yankees fan. I just delight in torturing Mets fans. My true allegiances lie with my hometown team.

  282. Principal reductions are upon us. As discussed above, anyone who thinks the banks don’t come out ahead on any of the deals they offer is either smoking angel dust or just plain country stupid.

    This should all make for great theatre of the absurd when Dimon becomes Sec. of Treasury.

  283. The stench of death hangs heavy in the summer air.

  284. Funny how I still can’t find a news program that ever broaches the subject of the top 20 or so banks in the US being insolvent.

    I guess we’ll end up finding this out the Greek way.

  285. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Cobbler 265 And sometimes you just have to go to the mattresses and maybe he is taking a hard line and will back off a little to give Sweeney some cover, who knows. The NJEA wants Sweeney’s head on a pike so he has very little to lose by running this gambit with CC to keep some of the other Dems on his side.

  286. freedy says:

    do you have to be a legal US citizen to get the forgiveness?

  287. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “Sweeney cooperated on pensions (greatly upsetting his union crowd) fully expecting to get something in return from cc.” Cobbler don’t forget that the economy ensured that neither the unions nor sweeney had much choice to cooperate or not. I suspect education reform will happen on the same terms.

  288. 3b says:

    #274 Did this guy lace his morning oatmeal with angel dust??? Increase in prices?? By the end of the summer?? Of what year??? Did I miss the memo that the economy is growing, and unemployment is rapidly falling???

  289. 3b says:

    #255 kettle: And informed home buyers should keep this in mind when looking and bidding. I have been saying this since the begining of this mtg forgiveness crap. Banks cutting homeowners mtgs, even when they are not in trouble??? This creates so much uncertainity for potential buyers in the market. Realtors should be against this.

    Well sorry sellers I am going to have to take my cut from you. Simply risk insurance.

  290. 3b says:

    #251 JC That is gary’s point; it is not a good thing.

  291. Kettle1^2 says:

    3b

    when the bank forgives half your princple most people will probably see that as “free” equity. To bad it just cut the market value of your home. At least the banks are telling buyers what general price points the homes might be worth.

    I bet that one woman from the article doesn’t realize that the value of her home just got cut by about 50%

  292. NJ Toast says:

    Happy Birthday America and a Happy 4th to everyone.

  293. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Nah Ket market determines value, not bank. Bank just writing down their accounting statements to realize (admit) it. Its basically free equity but since they’re underwater its really just a free elimination of neg equity, back to zero equity. This was done in 1930’s and was successful.

  294. Shore Guy says:

    Wad anyone else in Asbury on Saturday for Southside?

  295. Kettle1^2 says:

    NE

    I would imagine that the banks wouldn’t forgive much more principle rhe they think they need to to get close to “market value”. That’s a guess on my part but it certainly doesn’t seem to be supportive og home prices at their current value.

    Happy 4th all

  296. Shore Guy says:

    Neander,

    What ticks me off about things like that is that people like us looked at properties we liked and said “frig it the thing is pricead at 200% of what it is worth.” Someone else said “cool, prices just always rise and I can flip it.” Noe, they have it for out price. Lets just keep rewarding bad behavior.

  297. Shore Guy says:

    Friggen Android

  298. Bad is good. Good is bad. It’s the end of the empire, folks.

    Pretty soon, we’ll be at the ramparts, Greek-style.

    Got gasmasks?

  299. cobbler says:

    NE [293]
    There is no economic benefit in CC’s education reform proposal. Education quality may get better, but it is irrelevant for any of the parties involved (CC, senate dems or NJEA). Without good cooperation between the Gov and Sweeney nothing will happen.

  300. scribe says:

    New movie opening in London, called:

    Hobo With A Shotgun – UK film premiere
    Director Jason Eisener presents his cult-in-the-making exploitation film, which started out life as a fake trailer for Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez’s Grindhouse. Stars Rutger Hauer as a homeless vigilante. Q&A with the director follows.
    XOYO, 32-37 Cowper Street, London, EC2A 4AP, United Kingdom

  301. bear says:

    Hi,

    I’m looking to buy in Warren township. According to realtor.com, there are currently 153 houses on market. Does anyone know what the inventory was over the years?

    Does any one know about the after school program at Warren?

    Enjoy your 4th of July.

    Thanks in advance.
    Grim,
    Can we do a poll on who have bought in the last year?

  302. nj escapee says:

    According to the recent article about principal reduction, the mortgagee sold her Miami condo after the loan balance reduction at a $20K profit. It was an option ARM and her loan balance was reduced from 300k to 150k.

  303. nj escapee says:

    Happy Independence Day!!

  304. Evidently, it is an American right to turn a profit on the sale of your worthless, underwater real estate.

    An idea to ponder on our day of independence.

  305. Bailouts for everyone.

    He who whines loudest, benefits most.

  306. cobbler says:

    bear [308]
    Warren contains more huge (>$1-1.5 MM) uber-McMansion type houses than realistically needed for the whole of NJ, so this inventory is to stay for a very long time.

    Regarding the school system, quite large share of the kids go to the private schools (Pingry, etc.), which results in the K-8 system being fairly mediocre for such a rich town. At HS level they send students to Watchung Hills Regional which is good; I never saw stats how the kids from different sending towns do there academically v. each other – probably someone in the guidance department knows but won’t tell you.

    Overall, unless you have some valid reason to live in Warren, I’d rather look in the nearby towns (Watchung, Long Hill Twp, Bernards Twp, Berkly Hts) depending on your preferences.

  307. Juice Box says:

    3b – all the Bennys stayed home parking right on the beach.

  308. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Shore, those who get principal foregiveness are not going to flip for profit so what do we really care if the slobs get bailed out to even? The welfare/bailout function of govt is not to reward the smart and strong. Unfortunately were all in this economy together and we need those who are underwater to spend again or were all dead meat. The best part is that the writedown will bring market prices down to clearable levels in the market, which is all the bubble sitters really care about anyway.

  309. cobbler says:

    escapee [309]

    According to the recent article about principal reduction, the mortgagee sold her Miami condo after the loan balance reduction at a $20K profit. It was an option ARM and her loan balance was reduced from 300k to 150k.
    And this is a very good deal for all parties involved: bank got 150K instead of probably 60K they’d have had in case of FC. The new buyer bought it for 170 K without a hassle (they would have killed themselves waiting fore the bank to clear a short sale for 170K w/300K mortgage). The mortgagee got his life back and enough money (after returning 150 K to the bank, RE commission and closing fees) to move out, with little if any damage to her credit history – she was never late on payments, right? The only loser is a cash investor who was going to buy it at 60K, patch it up and flip at 170K.

  310. Neanderthal Economist says:

    The big loser in the write down is bank balance sheet, which I believe the adjustment flows through the income statement as a one time charge. Eat it jp c wfc etc…

  311. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “There is no economic benefit in CC’s education reform proposal. Education quality may get better, but it is irrelevant for any of the parties involved”
    Cobbler sure there is, more efficient education with lower costs. I agree with your previous statement about going after Abbot for real property tax reform.

  312. Shore Guy says:

    “Shore, those who get principal foregiveness are not going to flip for profit so what do we really care if the slobs get bailed out to even?”

    Allowing peoiple who made absurd economic decisions to avoid the pain of those decisons distorts the market. If people who fire automatic weapons into a crowd, jump off bridges, and crash their cars into brick walls whilst traveling at 50 mph were accorded the same benefit — being held harmless for their absurd behavior — we would live in a more dangerous society. The people who distorted the market by overpaying need — in a market economy — to bear the burden of their bad decison making.

  313. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Haha, shore calm down, the flippers have been shaken out already, the ones locking the market up now are mostly innocent victims who just wanted to be homeowners and the banks were silly enough to give them loans. Haha they never fired auto weapons into a crowd.

  314. bear says:

    cobbler,
    Wife works in south Jersey, I work in NYC. We thought Warren might be a good mid point.
    There are a bunch of new homes being built near exit to 78 (Hillcrest Rd). We are thinking of buying one in the new development. The reason for new homes is because negotiating with existing sellers is a headache.

  315. bear says:

    we left several voice mails at the board of education…..so far **chirp** **chirp**

  316. cobbler says:

    bear [321]
    As warren proper is rather small K-8 district, probably there are only few people who could answer the phone at BOE, and they are on vacation… When they come back get some smoke filter first…

    Before buying a house that will require you to commute to NYC by car (like in Warren) better try it a couple times, and not in Summer. Unless you plan to start working at 7 am and be done by 3:30 pm, it’s not the best drive…
    For the money Pulte wants for these houses (680K++) you can get at least as roomy and well equipped and almost new home in an established neighborhood in one of the train towns I’ve mentioned above (all of them except Watchung have rail); your wife’s commute will be only 5 minutes longer. And you don’t have to negotiate with the seller… that’s what the agents are for…

  317. NJCoast says:

    Re-#324-Looks like the link is no longer working. Basically the article says we are less in the crapper than the rest of the world.

    Off to the beach. Enjoy your 4th.

  318. cobbler says:

    Basically the article says we are less in the crapper than the rest of the world.
    Yesterday I watched 9 turkey vultures working on an open dumpster in the back of the steakhouse, pretty amazing. Birds looked extremely happy, as the vultures go.

  319. bear says:

    cobbler,
    Thanks for the information :)
    I was planning to drive to Newark and catch the train from there to NYC. I heard there were parking constraints at Berkeley Heights. Do you have first hand information on parking?

    Any help is appreciated!

  320. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Rut-Row!
    Greek rescue package will mean a default, warns S&P
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1372912-greek-rescue-package-will-mean-a-default-warns-s-p

    S&P, though, has concluded that this plan must be treated as a debt restructuring because investors would receive less value than was promised when they bought their original securities, and because without the deal Greece would almost certainly be unable to service its debts.

    “In our view, Greece’s near-term reliance on European Union and International Monetary Fund official financing, the government’s difficulty in reducing its sizable fiscal deficit, and the current pricing of Greek government debt in the secondary market all underscore the Hellenic Republic’s weak creditworthiness and, consequently, point to a ‘realistic possibility’ that [the] financing option would fit the ‘distressed’ category,” said S&P.

    Chaos could ripple through financial markets if the rating agencies rule that Greece has defaulted. Banks would have to slash the value of the Greek bonds they hold, and would probably not be able to use them as collateral with the European Central Bank (ECB). There are also fears that Portugal and Ireland might also see their credit rating cut.

    Greek default warning weighs on stocks
    http://seekingalpha.com/news-article/1373363-greek-default-warning-weighs-on-stocks

    AP

    LONDON — European stocks struggled to extend last week’s gains on Monday after Standard & Poor’s warned that a recent French proposal to get banks involved in helping Greece would trigger a default on the country’s debt.

    Sentiment last week was buoyed by an easing in the Greek debt crisis after the country’s lawmakers backed austerity measures required from international creditors in return for more bailout cash. Relief that a Greek default has been avoided helped stock markets around the world post one of the best weeks in months _ the Dow Jones index in the U.S. actually had its best week in two years.

    However, S&P’s warning on Monday that two proposals by an association of French banks “would likely amount to a default” weighed on the European opening despite earlier gains in Asia. U.S. markets are closed for Independence Day, meaning that volumes will be limited.

    The S&P warning came a week after French banks said they were ready to help Greece by accepting a significant debt rollover. Germany’s banks later said they were also considering helping out on similar terms.

    Analysts said S&P’s position could wreak havoc on Europe’s attempts to deal with the Greek debt crisis, especially if rivals Moody’s (MCO) and Fitch come to the same conclusion.

    A so-called “selective default” could trigger massive insurance claims on Greek bonds, likely triggering another bout of turmoil in the financial markets.

  321. Barbara says:

    The next bailout will be in the form of bulldozers. They will never let the market correct. I’m just going to buy, at today’s price within reason and get that rate, default if the zombie apocalypse happens. Anyone waiting for another 10-30% down will be waiting forever.

  322. Shore Guy says:

    Neander,

    The “innocent” overpaid and distorted the market. In the boom of the 80s, I wanted a little house of my own but realized that it was not in the cards given the debt to income it would reqiire (and we were talking just 3x income but I was single and had no backup income).

    People who had no business buying a home at the price they paid are being rewarded and it is wrong. Fcuk up, bleed a bit, pull yorself up off the mat, learn a lesson, and move on.

  323. cobbler says:

    bear [327]
    In every train town there is a waiting list for the station parking which takes 1-3 years to clear. Meanwhile, your options are (a) buy from where you can walk to the station, quite a few listings in your range actually; (b) find a neighbor that has a permit and takes the same morning train as you; (c) find a pseudo-taxi (most HS seniors living nearby would love to earn $5 for dropping you off at the train station on the way to school); and (d) get someone with the home/business close to the station let you park in their driveway/lot. I don’t know anyone in a serious distress due to the immediate absence of the municipal parking.

  324. cobbler says:

    shore [330]
    Pushing people into default doesn’t serve them any lessons – and this is what we are doing if someone’s LTE is 150-200% and they need to say relocate (even if they’ve been paying on time before). It also causes bank’s losses bigger than those occurring if the principal is reduced.

  325. homeboken says:

    Happy 4th to you all. I am enjoying a lovely brew, Le Fin du Monde as an ode to Hobo. The 9% ABV is helping me live with the invasion of Hoboken.

  326. Shore Guy says:

    “Pushing people into default doesn’t serve them any lessons ”

    The wreakage of their decision will serve as a warning to them and to others. The example of people being electrocuted on the subway’s third rail reminds the rest of us to avoid doing the same thing.

  327. sas3 says:

    homeboken… talking about invasion of Hoboken, any good place to park and watch the fireworks, or better off with the PATH trains?

  328. 3b says:

    #329 Time will tell. I would not rule it out at all.Mtg modifications will wreak havoc on the market. How confident will the few buyers out there feel knowing that the house next to the one thery are looking to might get 100k or more knocked off their mtg??

  329. 3b says:

    #320 I wont argue with you, but alot of them were not innocent. They thought they knew exactly what they were doing. It was an easy way to get rich quick. And in many of their minds those who urged caution were morons for not buying. I have no sympathy for them, now that they realize it was all a ponzi schem.

  330. cobbler says:

    3b[336]
    How confident will the few buyers out there feel knowing that the house next to the one thery are looking to might get 100k or more knocked off their mtg??
    How confident will the few buyers out there feel knowing that the house next to the one thery are looking to might get sold as REO a year later for the price 100K or more below what they’ve paid?

  331. 3b says:

    #314 Did not make it down change of plans. Shooting for next weekend. Hope you enjoyed it.

  332. cobbler says:

    shore [334]
    Third rail is a bad example: someone getting electrocuted has very little collateral damage (unlike mass FC).

  333. 3b says:

    #297 And it will scre the hell out of the few buyers ou there. Smart realtors should be opposed.

  334. bear (321)-

    Warren sucks. The HS- given the resources of the district- sucks.

    Better off in New Prov or Berkeley Heights.

  335. 3b (341)-

    This whole principal write-down thingy is yet another reason I’m exiting the business.

    In fact, at some point, somebody should just rename real estate “malinvestment”.

  336. Got to keep in mind that many of the things banksters are doing are a deliberate attack on the real estate industry. If the banksters kill RE, they have it to themselves to do as they wish.

  337. Neanderthal Economist says:

    I hear you shore but we’re way past that now, the whole system was broke and everyone was culpable including the people and the govt themself. You can’t worry about the few dirtballs who gamed the system. Those who were smart enough to purposely avoid the bubble will be rewarded in long run.

  338. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “If the banksters kill RE, they have it to themselves to do as they wish..”
    Let’s face it, when this thing is over realty service will be reduced to a website that your bank throws in for free when you keep your checking account with them and closings will cost $19.99.

  339. Neanderthal Economist says:

    “How confident will the few buyers out there feel knowing that the house next to the one thery are looking to might get 100k or more knocked off their mtg??”
    3b, do you really care if jpm knocks $100k off your neighbors mortgage? For me I really don’t care at all. I’m not one of those people who gets envious at grocery store that the lady in front of me has food stamps and wic while I pay full price.

  340. veets (346)-

    And if that comes to pass, no one will be laughing at me for planting land mines in my yard.

  341. I always wished Princess Diana would’ve stepped on a land mine.

    Publicity-hound bitch.

  342. Shore Guy says:

    “Those who were smart enough to purposely avoid the bubble will be rewarded in long run.”

    I wish I could believe that; the more I see, the more convinced I hve become that the prudent will just get shived in the end.

  343. Prudent = sucker = patsy

    Put on some Foster the People and drop a little extra Patron into the blender. Before long, you’ll be full-body numb.

  344. Today, we’re just trying to grill some meat without burning it.

    Guys like Dimon are sitting around with their henchmen, trying to figure out ways to wring the last drops of wealth out of us.

  345. If the Patron isn’t enough, drop a X@nax on it.

    Good times.

  346. Barbara says:

    Prediction: by this time next year, rumblings about physically and financially distressed properties pulling the market down, not even worth fixing up, eyesores for the neighborhood, blight, crime…suddenly bulldozing sounds like sound policy, not at all like banks getting away with your money again. Never mind Detroit or Camden, I’m talking about the burbs

  347. Kettle1^2 says:

    Barb

    we will just have extend the bike paths to the burbs. A much more cost effective solution anyway.

  348. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Barb there are 5 foreclosures in my town, in my price range, that I know about. They sit for two years and barely mow the lawn. Neighbors have to clear the tree branches from the yard after storms. Banks could have written them down 20% and cleared them 2 years ago but now will require 90% write down as they need to be stripped down to studs and rebuilt. I would have bought any one of them for the right price but now wont touch them no matter what discount. Problem is they are messing with the supply demand and keeping all other inventory propped at higher prices. It’s obvious this works to control price crash.. Bulldozer option is very plausible.

  349. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Hobo is there something in your license that wont allow you to build a competitor website to mls? Its all going online discount flat fee brokerage with youtube video so why not start to corner that market with your own listings? Create the platform, franchise it out and collect the royalties. Nobody needs to physically drive around with a creepy realtor to go house shopping. 90% of the buying process can be accomplished from a laptop. The only reason nobody does it now is because nar wont allow that type of technology on the website. They want you to walk into a sales office and do the face to face thing. Archaic.

  350. Shore Guy says:

    Now that the fireworks are over, lets burst some July 4 myths that the non-historians here might believe:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/top-5-myths-about-july-4/2011/07/03/AGe6YmwH_blog.html?fb_ref=NetworkNews

  351. Shore Guy says:

    God seems to love a good irony:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/upstate-ny-motorcyclist-dies-after-hitting-head-on-pavement-during-protest-against-helmet-laws/2011/07/03/AGNicNwH_story.html?fb_ref=NetworkNews

    Upstate NY motorcyclist dies after hitting head on pavement during protest against helmet laws

    ONONDAGA, N.Y. — Police say a motorcyclist participating in a protest ride against helmet laws in upstate New York died after he flipped over the bike’s handlebars and hit his head on the pavement.

    snip

  352. Shore Guy says:

    Gator,

    I wonder if he was wearing a baby?

  353. Shore Guy says:

    For those inclined to take their own life, there have just got to be better ways than this:

    LONDON – A depressed former property consultant bled to death in his London home after trying to amputate his own legs with a hacksaw

    snip

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/06/23/husband-lily-allens-hypnotherapist-dies-amputating-own-legs/#ixzz1RCP5G5uY

  354. Shore Guy says:

    A 10-foot bronze statue of former President Ronald Reagan to commemorate 100 years since his birth has been unveiled in London, the Independent newspaper reports.

    Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice joined British Foreign Secretary William Hague in paying tribute to Reagan Monday at the U.S. Embassy in London.

    “It is a great honor for me personally to take part in a ceremony for a man who changed the political landscape at the time I first became involved in it,” Hague said.

    “Statues bring us to face to face with our heroes long after they are gone.”

    Rice represented the late president’s widow Nancy Reagan at the ceremony, which coincided with America’s Independence Day celebrations.

    Hague added that Reagan’s great political ally, former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, could not attend the ceremony, the paper reported.

    Hague said: “She has asked me to say these words to you: Ronald Reagan was a great president and a great man — a true leader for our times. He held clear principles and acted upon them with purpose.

    “Through his strength and his conviction he brought millions of people to freedom as the Iron Curtain finally came down.

    “It was a pleasure to be his colleague and his friend, and I hope that this statue will be a reminder to future generations of the debt we owe him.”

    Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/07/04/ronald-reagan-statue-unveiled-in-london/#ixzz1RCPmUSnh

  355. Shore Guy says:

    Associated Press
    Foreclosure overhaul leads to Hawaii housing glut
    By MARK NIESSE , 07.03.11, 03:03 PM EDT

    HONOLULU — When Hawaii passed a new law with extensive protections to prevent residents from losing their homes, it was hailed as the nation’s strongest foreclosure law – maybe too strong, many warn.

    In response to the law, mortgage giant Fannie Mae ( FNM – news – people ) directed its lenders three weeks ago to move all of its Hawaii foreclosures into the courts rather than use a mediation system the law created

    The courts say they’ll struggle to handle the load, with foreclosure cases already taking 12 to 14 months to resolve. Lenders are warning lawmakers that they don’t intend to use mediation at all.

    The likely result will be further delays in getting foreclosed homes back on the market, prolonging the slow housing recovery at the root of the country’s enduring economic troubles.

    The 102-page law, signed by Gov. Neil Abercrombie in May, requires lenders to show mediators evidence of legal authority to foreclose, and they can be sued for deceptive practices for missteps in following the law’s process.

    The law also prohibits lenders from seeking deficiency judgments, which mean the homeowner still owes the remaining mortgage debt that’s not satisfied by a foreclosure sale. Such judgments are an option that’s still available if lenders instead pursue the court-run foreclosure process

    snip

  356. Shore Guy says:

    Ninety proposed storm water projects across the Barnegat Bay watershed could cost $44 million — a daunting indicator of how much it may cost to stem the tide of nutrient-laden runoff that scientists say is changing the bay ecosystem.

    Experts say it is much cheaper to keep excess nutrients off the ground in the first place — the reasoning behind New Jersey’s recent law to control fertilizer misuse. Environmental advocates say another measure should be to limit future suburban development by pulling back sewer area boundaries

    snip

    http://www.app.com/article/20110704/NJNEWS/307040045/Price-of-Barnegat-Bay-fix-could-be-steep

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