Upside surprise for home sales in August

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increased More Than Forecast

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose more than anticipated in August as investors scooped up distressed properties with cash.

The 7.7 percent increase left purchases at a five-month high 5.03 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The August pace compares with a peak of 7.08 million in 2005, before the housing boom turned into a subprime-mortgage bust that dragged the economy into an 18-month recession.

“Housing’s been down for so long, we should take whatever good news we can get,” said Brian Jones, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, whose forecast was among the highest in the Bloomberg survey. “Interest rates are low and pricing is attractive and people are responding.”

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 4.75 million rate. Forecasts in the survey of 74 economists ranged from 4.5 million to 4.99 million.

From Reuters:

US Aug existing home sales up but outlook still grim

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to their highest level in five months as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into a still moribund market.

The data did little to change the view that housing, hobbled by a burst bubble which triggered a major recession, will not help the economy much anytime soon.

Sales climbed 7.7 percent from the previous month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

“This housing market is still very distressed,” said Michael Hanson, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York.

“We have to get a lot of good news for a meaningful turnaround in the housing market,” he said.

The outlook for housing prices remains grim. A survey by MacroMarkets LLC showed economists expect home prices to rise just 1.1 percent a year through 2015.

From CNBC:

Existing-Home Sales Jump 7.7%, Well Above Forecasts

Existing home sales rose more than expected in August to the fastest annual pace since March as falling prices and low interest rates drew more buyers into the market, the National Association of Realtors said.

ales climbed 7.7 percent month over month to an annual rate of 5.03 million units, the NAR said Wednesday. The median price was 5.1 percent lower than a year earlier.

Rising rents are also helping Americans decide to buy homes, the NAR said.

“Favorable affordability conditions and rising rents are underlying motivations,” Lawrence Yun, chief NAR economist, said in a statement.

Yun said the increase in sales came despite some disruptions from Hurricane Irene, which battered much of the East Coast at the end of the month.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected sales to rise 1.4 percent to a 4.71-million-unit pace. Compared to August 2010, sales were 18.6 percent higher.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

118 Responses to Upside surprise for home sales in August

  1. Raymond says:

    Frist!~

  2. Raymond says:

    Some how old do I have to be to interview with JJ? I’m certain he’ll love my skills and I can even take my teeth out.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. grim says:

    Greenspan saw his shadow… or is it broke a mirror?

    From HousingWire:

    Five more years of housing problems, with some stability in local markets

    The housing market remains shaky and is unlikely to deliver significant growth in prices over the next five years, according to a new survey of economists, real estate professionals and analysts.

    Despite the survey’s dim outlook, MacroMarkets said some local markets are strong even as home price growth remains abysmal nationwide.

    MacroMarkets and Pulsenomics researched and compiled the report on home price expectations after surveying 111 experts. Economists analyzed five-year trends stemming from the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.

    Home prices are expected to grow at a modest 1.1% nominal average annual rate through 2015, the report said.

    The only silver lining is home price expectations for 2011 are not as negative as previously forecasted. Still, MacroMarkets sees dark clouds ahead since the “average projection is somewhat more negative for each of the following four years.”

    Of those interviewed, 73% said further policy action by the government to stabilize the housing market is either “highly likely” or “likely,” while more than half said this type of action is undesirable. About 49% said they believe further government intrusion is unnecessary.

  5. grim says:

    From the Star Ledger:

    N.J. median household income drops nearly 3 percent over last 5 years

    New Jersey households are continuing to bring in less money than they did five years ago.

    According to American Community Survey estimates being released by the U.S. Census Bureau today, the 2010 median household income in New Jersey was $67,681. That’s a 2.7 percent drop from the median income of $69,569 the year before, and 2.9 percent less than the inflation-adjusted total of $69,674 in 2006.

    Broken down by county, Morris and Camden counties took the biggest one-year hit, with each showing more than a 7 percent decrease in median household income from 2009 to 2010.

    “It doesn’t surprise me,” said Bernard McCann, of Chatham. “In fact, in this county (Morris), I would have guessed it was more of a decrease. You see it on the trains going into the city. Wall Street’s hurting. The financial world is hurting. The housing market is hurting.”

    James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, said the weak numbers are typical of economies trying to rebound from deep financial crises.

    Despite the National Bureau of Economic Research’s declaration that the recession in the U.S. ended in June 2009, Hughes said “there’s no economic silver bullet that’s going to accelerate this to any great extent.”

  6. yo'me says:

    futures down over 2%.wall street need more than 4 billion or the skunks throw a tantrum and will not eat

  7. August housing surprise to the upside? Nothing more than an interruption in the water torture.

    The ass-kicking will resume shortly.

  8. yo'me says:

    $400 billion twist

  9. yo'me says:

    Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has moved closer toward joining the Federal Reserve in a global push to add stimulus and stave off renewed recessions.

    Economists at JPMorgan Chase and Co. and RBC Capital Markets see the U.K. central bank starting to buy 50 billion pounds ($77 billion) of assets by November after most of its policy makers said more so-called quantitative easing is “increasingly probable.” JPMorgan economist Malcolm Barr in London said weak survey data could prompt a move in October.

    A cooling global economy and the threat from Europe’s debt crisis have refocused policy makers’ attention away from inflation risks to avoiding a slide back into recession. The Fed late yesterday said it will rebalance its Treasury holdings to cut longer-term borrowing costs, Sweden’s Riksbank said slowing growth may warrant a rate cut, while the Swiss National Bank lowered its benchmark to zero earlier this month.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-21/king-moves-closer-to-joining-global-stimulus-push-as-fed-shifts-portfolio.html

  10. yo'me says:

    Reuters) – The House of Representatives unexpectedly defeated a bill that would fund the federal government past September 30 on Wednesday as dozens of Republicans broke with their party to push for deeper spending cuts.

    The unexpected outcome was an embarrassment for House Republican leaders who have at times struggled to rein in a conservative wing that remains closely allied with the anti-spending Tea Party movement.

    “This is a democracy. This is the sausage factory,” said Appropriations Committee Chairman Hal Rogers, who sponsored the bill.

    The vote could further rattle consumers and investors who have been unnerved by the high-stakes budget battle that has played out in Washington this year. Congress pushed the government to the brink of a shutdown in April and the edge of default in August.

    Republican leaders said they would figure out a way to pass the spending bill and avoid disrupting everything from national parks to scientific research

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/22/us-usa-congress-spending-idUSTRE78K78Z20110922

  11. gary says:

    “It doesn’t surprise me,” said Bernard McCann, of Chatham. “In fact, in this county (Morris), I would have guessed it was more of a decrease. You see it on the trains going into the city. Wall Street’s hurting. The financial world is hurting. The housing market is hurting.”

    Now, picture that Case-Shiller chart in your head. Any questions?

  12. freedy says:

    gary: How we doing in River Edge? Holding up? I’m not giving my house away

  13. yo'me says:

    Americans and people who just use the United States as a place to park their planes on the way to St. Bart’s,” says Agenda Project founder Erica Payne, who has worked closely with Wealth for the Common Good. “This issue is not complicated. It is not nuanced. If you care about your country, you pay taxes. If your country is in trouble, you pay more taxes.”

    http://blogs.reuters.com/reuters-money/2011/09/21/the-rich-respond-to-obamas-buffett-rule/

  14. reinvestor101 says:

    >>>August housing surprise to the upside? Nothing more than an interruption in the water torture.

    The ass-kicking will resume shortly.<<<<

    Bullspit. Stop being so damn negative. This is just the long awaited second half recovery. You damn real estate terrorists prefer not to see that happen, but it's happening anyway despite your damn negativity. So just be quiet and enjoy it. House flipping will be back in vogue soon enough.

  15. reinvestor101 says:

    >>I’m not giving my house away<<

    Finally, some damn sentiment on this board that aligns with my own. I ain't giving shlt away, so if you want my damn house, you're going to have to pay my damn price. I shoot every third lowballer and the second one just left. So as far as I'm concerned, you lowball me at your own damn peril.

  16. chicagofinance says:

    How are things in MD?

  17. Shore Guy says:

    The general assessment at the time of Watergate was that, once Nixon “lost Cronkite” it was all over. I don’t know what the modern equivalent is but, Friedman has to be up on the list of people a Democratic president should worry about losing:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/21/opinion/friedman-are-we-going-to-roll-up-our-sleeves-or-limp-on.html

    It becomes clearer every week that our country faces a big choice: We can either have a hard decade or a bad century.

    We can either roll up our sleeves and do what’s needed to overcome our post-cold war excesses and adapt to the demands of the 21st century or we can just keep limping into the future.

    Given those stark choices, one would hope that our politicians would rise to the challenge by putting forth fair and credible recovery proposals that match the scale of our debt problem and contain the three elements that any serious plan must have: spending cuts, increases in revenues and investments in the sources of our strength. But that, alas, is not what we’re getting, which is why there remains an opening for an independent Third Party candidate in the 2012 campaign.

    snip

    Mr. Obama gave us the credible $447 billion jobs program, but his deficit reduction plan announced on Monday to pay for it and trim long-term spending does not rise to the scale we need. It may motivate his base, but it will not attract independents and centrists and, therefore, it will not corner the Republicans.

    As The Washington Post reported: “The latest Obama plan ‘doesn’t produce any more in realistic savings than the plan they offered in April,’ said Maya MacGuineas, the president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. ‘They’ve filled in details, repackaged it and replaced one gimmick with another. They don’t even stabilize the debt. This is just not enough.’ The most disheartening development, MacGuineas and others said, is Obama’s decision to count $1.1 trillion in savings from the drawdown of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan toward his debt-reduction total. Because Obama has no intention of continuing war spending at last year’s elevated levels, that $1.1 trillion would never have been spent.”

    A Financial Times editorial summarized my feelings: “American voters are not looking for champions of their preferred redistributive stance, but responsible attitudes to the country’s challenges. If Mr. Obama suggests a millionaire’s tax can save ordinary voters from pain, he will fail, economically and politically.”

    snip

  18. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Look out below!!!!!!! Europe getting crushed this morning, shiny down 75, and the bears have gotten into the crystal meth.

    Stench of the freshly dead wafting over the eastern seaboard right now.

  19. reinvestor101 says:

    More good news! Jobless claims fell by 2%! This on top of the housing news means that the long awaited second half recovery is on! I bet the stock market will be up today!

    I’m as happy as a pig in shlt! This is the type of positive news we need in people’s minds.

  20. Shore Guy says:

    We old guys sometimes confuse things.

  21. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (21) shore

    Heck, I thought it was Nixon too

  22. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Wonder if it is time to load up. Screaming drop at the open.

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Hi yo silver, away (down).

  24. Confused in NJ says:

    When DOW hits 1200, Buy.

  25. Confused in NJ says:

    WASHINGTON (Reuters) – As the U.S. government grapples to find ways to trim the bloated federal deficit, a new report suggests officials might start with cutting out $16 muffins and $10 cookies.

    “We found the Department (of Justice) spent $16 on each of the 250 muffins served at an August 2009 legal conference in Washington,” said a DOJ Office of Inspector General report released on Tuesday.

    The DOJ spent $121 million on conferences in fiscal 2008 and 2009, which exceeded its own spending limits and appeared to be extravagant and wasteful, according to the report that examined 10 conferences held during that period.

    The review turned up the expensive muffins, which came from the Capital Hilton Hotel just blocks from the White House, as well as cookies and brownies that cost almost $10 each.

    The department spent $32 per person on snacks of Cracker Jack, popcorn, and candy bars and coffee that cost $8.24 per cup at another conference, the report said

  26. All Hype says:

    Speaking of the stench of death. I thought a skunk had a fight in the backyard last night. Little did I know that Uncle Ben through in the towel yesterday and let the corpse rot overnight.

  27. Juice Box says:

    No Panic at the Disco Yet.

    First it was China bailing out Europe (not) and now it is the emerging-markets interest in European debt as IMF, G-20 convene.

    Next it will be space cash.

  28. Mike says:

    Chubby Checker does the “Twist” yesterday, today he does the “Limbo Rock” How low can you go?

  29. Nicholas says:

    Chicagofinance,

    As far as I can see its pretty mixed here in Maryland. The working half seems to be doing well and the other half has taken a beating.

    I have a brother that has cut his hourly wage by 50% and still can only find employment 30-40% of the week. I have another sister that is enduring her second lay off. Thats the working class. The professional class seems to be doing pretty well or advancing in this environment but I worry how long that can hold up.

    Housing has been mixed also probably due to the factors just stated above. Housing in the working class suburbs continues to erode/collapse but housing in the professional class areas are holding or even rising slightly. I saw a “just reduced sign” on September 7th on three acres in a great community. Went from 1.8 million to 890k in one giant step. Thats a 49% reduction from asking a year ago.

    This imbalance can only continue to happen for so long. Call it capitulation or whatever but I’m definitely seeing people be a lot more conservative as things progress forward.

  30. yo'me says:

    Tax Increases and Spending Cuts in Italy Will Slow Growth, Not Speed It Up
    Wednesday, 21 September 2011 06:08
    In an article discussing debt problems of euro zone countries the NYT told readers that a statement issued by the Italian government yesterday:

    “said the government was preparing steps to lift growth and recently passed measures to control public finances through tax increases and spending cuts.”

    It would have been appropriate to remind readers that spening cuts and tax increases slow growth by pulling money out of the economy. It is likely that whatever steps the Italian government might prepare to boost growth will be more than offset by the impact of its austerity package.

    Dean Baker

  31. Confused in NJ says:

    “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrialized nation is controlled by it’s system of credit. Our system of credit concentrated. The growth of this nation therefore,and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled,one of the most completely controlled,and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion,no longer a government by conviction,and the vote of the majority,but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men”.

    President -Woodrow Wilson after signing in the Federal Reserve 1917

  32. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    PM and PM stocks hammered on no QE3 – good to shake out the weak hands.

  33. Shore Guy says:

    Nom,

    I forgot to take my Geritol this morning.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    Did I hear correctly that the Dow is down over 300 points?

  35. 3B says:

    Gary Shilling was on Kudlow last night sharing his belief that housing will drop another 20% over the next 3 years. Kudlow did not argue with him.

  36. Shore Guy says:

    Are these the people who are supposed to buy houses from the Boomers and Gen Xers?

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/09/22/national/main20110000.shtml

    (AP) WASHINGTON – Call it the recession’s lost generation.

    In record-setting numbers, young adults struggling to find work are shunning long-distance moves to live with Mom and Dad, delaying marriage and buying fewer homes, often raising kids out of wedlock. They suffer from the highest unemployment since World War II and risk living in poverty more than others — nearly 1 in 5.

    New 2010 census data released Thursday show the wrenching impact of a recession that officially ended in mid-2009. It highlights the missed opportunities and dim prospects for a generation of mostly 20-somethings and 30-somethings coming of age in a prolonged slump with high unemployment.

    “We have a monster jobs problem, and young people are the biggest losers,” said Andrew Sum, an economist and director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University. He noted that for recent college grads now getting by with waitressing, bartending and odd jobs, they will have to compete with new graduates for entry-level career positions when the job market eventually does improve.

    “Their really high levels of underemployment and unemployment will haunt young people for at least another decade,” Sum said.
    snip

  37. 3B says:

    #37 Yes, Do you have a problem with that?

  38. Juice Box says:

    re: #37 – “recent college grads now getting by with waitressing, bartending and odd jobs”

    Why is it every time I walk by a construction project I see our guest workers digging the ditches? Many of these project also funded by the government no less.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cwYJxNnABp4

  39. yo'me says:

    We printed $1.6 T to buy treasuries and yields went down.The world started buying more of our debt at this low yields.Market is down not because of QE3.It is down because it is only $450B.Throw in another $450B,they will be cheering.Plus UK is planning their own QE.FED’s of the world are not worried about inflation anymore,they don’t want to fall to another recession.Ofcourse this depends and your definition of recession.It works until it does not.

  40. chicagofinance says:

    Their last work of any value was Adventures in Hi-Fi…they have created a collective nothing for 15 years. Stipe pound for pound is a more massive douchebag than Bono, which an impressive feat. Only U2 being utterly shameless sellouts and attention hogs make them more oppressive….give credit where credit is due….
    Check out the price tag…. AFTER a 30% reduction….
    http://www.amazon.com/Achtung-Baby-Uber-Deluxe-U2/dp/B005FVA63A/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1316703751&sr=8-3

    Shore Guy says:
    September 22, 2011 at 10:37 am
    R.I.P R.E.M

  41. yo'me says:

    Netflix selling itself to Amazon

  42. yo'me says:

    austerity=no growth=no demand
    giving more money to the rich and business will not create demand.give to the one that will spend it

  43. 3B says:

    #41 The Fed is apparently worried abot deflation again.

  44. prtraders2000 says:

    Solar question. Where does the money come from to purchase the SRECs (Solar Renewable Energy Credits)? I am curious whether this is funded by the state or if it is a charge passed along by the utility companies. I’m helping a client evaluate a couple of solar installation proposals and it seems to me that the decision hinges on the future vale of the SREC payments.

  45. 3B says:

    #42 I thought REM broke up years ago!

  46. Juice Box says:

    prtraders2000 —> http://lmgtfy.com/?q=SRECs+utilities

    check the second search result 2nd link

  47. chicagofinance says:

    SRECs are legislated extortion AGAINST the utility companies….
    http://www.njcleanenergy.com/renewable-energy/programs/solar-renewable-energy-certificates-srec/new-jersey-solar-renewable-energy

    prtraders2000 says:
    September 22, 2011 at 11:18 am
    Solar question. Where does the money come from to purchase the SRECs (Solar Renewable Energy Credits)? I am curious whether this is funded by the state or if it is a charge passed along by the utility companies. I’m helping a client evaluate a couple of solar installation proposals and it seems to me that the decision hinges on the future vale of the SREC payments.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    Also note that any RFP response that is more than about 3-4 months old is stale and needs to be repriced for two reasons: #1 Germany and Spain were the biggest solar vanguards (self-explanatory the impact); #2 note the article

    WSJ
    DEAL OF THE WEEK
    SEPTEMBER 21, 2011

    Solar Sprouts on the Roof .

    By MAURA WEBBER SADOVI

    The high-profile collapse of Solyndra earlier this month underscored the pain being felt by solar-panel manufacturers from the world-wide glut of their product.

    But for owners of huge warehouses and other industrial space, the sharp decline in panel prices caused by the glut bodes well for the growth of a fledgling business: renting out roof space to solar-energy operations.

    The lower cost of panels and other equipment have helped reduce the price of the system to about $35 million, according to Gil Alexander, a spokesman for the utility. About three years ago it would have cost about $70 million to build, he said. People involved in the project declined to say how much rent the utility is paying to use the rooftop. But the going rate in California’s Inland Empire, where Perris is located, is less than 22 cents a square foot annually, or under 5% of the rent for space inside the building, according to Ben Stapleton, head of the clean-tech practice group for Jones Lang LaSalle.

    More deals like this can be expected in the future if solar enthusiasts are right in their prediction that an increasing amount of electricity will be generated using solar power. Currently, solar is responsible for less than 1% of the power used in the U.S., according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.

    To be sure, the future of the industry was clouded by the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by Solyndra, which got a $535 million loan guarantee from the Department of Energy in 2009. Critics of solar power question whether subsidies should continue, given that solar power is expected to remain more expensive to produce than other forms of energy for some time.

    But many landlords feel that solar rooftop development has potential as a side business. Prologis earlier this year announced a partnership with NRG Energy Inc., a New Jersey utility, to build rooftop solar-generation projects valued at about $2.6 billion.

    Solar systems are installed on about 8.5 million square feet, or 1.4%, of Prologis’s roughly 600 million-square-foot portfolio, generating about $1.4 million annually. Prologis generates about 50 megawatts of electricity annually from its roofs, a number it expects to increase at a rate of at least 25 megawatts annually.

  49. chicagofinance says:

    I spent a good deal of time working on the pitches of various solar installers and project managers in early 2011. If you want any info, please contact me at chicagofinance at yahoo

  50. prtraders2000 says:

    Solar

    Thanks for the answers. Not going to work for my client as they have a loss from operations and can not utilize depreciation to the extent that the solar installers propose. Not to mention they would need to borrow to fund the project. They were also concerned with the accuracy of the expected value of the SRECs going forward in the proposal. Note that when calculating the savings from generating electricity proposals were compounding a 5.5% increase per year going forward. Seemed rather steep.

  51. AG says:

    PM rocked because your g-v is issuing naked shorts via JP Morgan. Coil the spring up tighter boys. We will be at 2200 by February. Book it.

  52. nwnj says:

    What recession? Morris County median income drops 7k in the past year and the food stamp usage has doubled in the past three.

    http://www.dailyrecord.com/article/20110922/NJNEWS/309220009/Median-income-drops-Morris-County?odyssey=tab|topnews|text|FRONTPAGE

  53. nwnj says:

    median *household* income

  54. chicagofinance says:

    On the SRECs? The value of the SRECs is going to dwindle to zero over time as more projects come online and the utilities do not need to bid up the price as drastically. The projects work because of the 30% lump-sum Federal subsidy granted upon flicking the on-switch, and then NJ-state legislated SREC revenue. It is possible to sell forward 10 years of SRECs, so your client can go out there right now and get indications on the pricing. They do not need to take the developers word for it.

    Also, are you sure that you client is located in an area where the local grid has the capacity to deal with the electricty generated? The whole process with these solar projects in NJ is a first mover adavantage.

    prtraders2000 says:
    September 22, 2011 at 12:11 pm
    Solar

    Thanks for the answers. Not going to work for my client as they have a loss from operations and can not utilize depreciation to the extent that the solar installers propose. Not to mention they would need to borrow to fund the project. They were also concerned with the accuracy of the expected value of the SRECs going forward in the proposal. Note that when calculating the savings from generating electricity proposals were compounding a 5.5% increase per year going forward. Seemed rather steep.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    To be clear, these projects work due to the Federal 30% subsidy and the SREC revenue. The power generation is de minimis and the depreciation tax shield is a “nice to have” but does not drive the positive NPV. Several of the major banks understand these projects and are willing to provide financing, especially if you fix out the SREC revenue.

  56. toomuchchange says:

    Here’s a very interesting analysis about the employment and immigration in Texas. Will Gov. Perry get called on these statistics or he keep pitching himself as a job creator — and allowing people to assume that he meant jobs for Americans — and will his claims go unchallenged?

    http://cis.org/immigrants-filled-most-new-jobs-in-Texas

    “Governor Rick Perry (R-Texas) has pointed to job growth in Texas during the current economic downturn as one of his main accomplishments. But analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) data collected by the Census Bureau show that immigrants (legal and illegal) have been the primary beneficiaries of this growth since 2007, not native-born workers. This is true even though the native-born accounted for the vast majority of growth in the working-age population (age 16 to 65) in Texas. …

    Among the findings:

    • Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers (legal and illegal).

    • In terms of numbers, between the second quarter of 2007, right before the recession began, and the second quarter of 2011, total employment in Texas increased by 279,000. Of this, 225,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal and illegal) who arrived in the United States in 2007 or later.

    • The large share of job growth that went to immigrants is surprising because the native-born accounted for 69 percent of the growth in Texas’ working-age population (16 to 65). Thus, even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants.”

  57. Mad Tom says:

    “I place economy among the first and most important virtues, and public debt as the greatest of dangers to be feared. To preserve our independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt. If we run into such debts, we must be taxed in our meat and drink, in our necessities and in our comforts, in our labor and in our amusements. If we can prevent the government from wasting the labor of the people, under the pretense of caring for them, they will be happy.”
    – T Jefferson

  58. Libtard in Union says:

    In case no one is paying attention, 1.76 on the ten-year. If we can get to 1.5, the multi will be going down to a 15-year.

  59. Mad Tom says:

    #59

    ……81 percent were taken by newly arrived immigrant workers ……

    Do we even need to ask if the majority of those immigrants were illegal?

  60. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [59] change

    Was there a point in all that spin? I’m a bit starved for some analysis in this whole Perry-jobs argument.

    Are you suggesting that Perry intended to create jobs for immigrants, and not for native born americans? (and I’ll leave the obvious uncomfortable point for dems about that argument on the table for now).

    If a governor fosters an environment that creates jobs, and the jobs are filled by immigrants, please explain why that is the fault of the governor. Rather, from where I sit, it is the fault of the administration and party that WANTS these immigrants here, and prevents states from doing anything to control illegals (can’t control legal) on their own.

    Or is it your point that the governor should NOT have fostered an environment that led to growth at lower wage levels? So, because not enough high paying jobs are created, he should not create the lower paying ones? (and I know I am being fast and loose with “creating” but bear with it). Should a state somehow set a quota for lower paid (“sorry, we can’t let any more cashiers in until we raise the level of programmers”). Is that what you advocate, cuz it sure sounds like it.

    Finally, the spin argues that it was bad that so many lower paying jobs were created, but ignores what gave rise to their creation in the first place. Could it be demand?

    Please do develop the line of reasoning. It is a legitimate debate point that goes to whether we should have a command and control economy or not, and I am interested in hearing the logic behind the view that Perry’s job creation record in Texas is a negative.

  61. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Buying on the dips again; picked up some shiny and a pipeline MLP that I owned before with good results. Will incubate them in my account, and if they appreciate like my other recent picks have, send them off to the UTMA accounts so that the gains are taxed at nice low rates (and the girls can pay for their own activities).

  62. yo'me says:

    “Immigrants took jobs across the educational distribution. More than one out three (97,000) of newly arrived immigrants who took a job had at least some college”

    Is this a qualification for the job?

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [66] yo’me

    It would seem so. There is a clear preference for immigrants of both legal and illegal stripe. What this says about the perception of employers of the native born workforce is troubling, and not a very good advertising point for the NEA and SEIU.

    Perhaps I should expatriate now, and then get myself hired as a canadian or something. Could work.

  64. Libtard in Union says:

    1.74! Remember this number every time you’ve heard a realtor say that with today’s record low interest rates, now is the best time to buy.

  65. A.West says:

    Of course immigrants get jobs. They don’t qualify for 99weeks of unemployment, and they will cut people’s lawns, watch their kids, paint walls, whatever it takes to feed their families and send a few dollars home. If natives had that kind of drive, rather than an entitled consumer mentality, the US wouldn’t be in the situation it’s in now. I’m for immigration as long as these are people working, and pulling their own weight, not showing up to cash in on the bloated US welfare state.

    The government and banks should hire immigrants to sit in foreclosed houses in return for cutting the grass and maintaining the structure. Probably more cost effective than letting the houses rot.

  66. toomuchchange says:

    64 –

    Frankly I do not know what Perry’s intentions or actions are when it comes to jobs. As we all know, politicians do not actually “create” jobs in the private sector but what they say and do does affect the business climate and helps to create an impression of a state.

    What I am somewhat familiar with are reports of the debates he has participated in and recent statement he’s made about himself in view of his presidential run. Just like everybody else, I certainly assumed that he was talking about jobs for American citizens. I find it hard to believe that he is not familiar with the situation that actually exists — that most of the new jobs are going to immigrants.

    Based on what I’ve seen in recent days and a little knowledge about the past history of Texas, the leaders there try to position themselves as being all-0ut for business and not caring about workers too much, especially when it comes to wages.

    Do I think that’s the way to go? No. Is there an of economic argument to be made that for some people, there’s an upside when the average wages in a state are lower? Yes, of course. I don’t think that’s the way to go, though, because ultimately I think the country succeeds only when as many people as possible succeed.

    I also believe that we’ve created a monster by allowing employers to get used to the benefits of cheap labor, whether it’s legal or illegal. What used to be perceived as normal working conditions, employer-paid health insurance, market level wages, etc. are increasingly being perceived as impositions and unnecessary luxuries that workers don’t really need.

    I am curious if you think the story was “spin” or just my comments about it.

  67. toomuchchange says:

    69 —

    Are you willing to pay for native born Americans to stay home as the immigrants take over the jobs?

    Remember, you can get fire a worker and hirer a cheaper one but you can’t fire a citizen. Also under current law, every immigrant’s child born here is automatic citizen. Are we going to import 30-40 million immigrants in every generation to do the work while the rapidly growing native population is jobless?

    Where is your loyalty to your fellow Americans? Why are you so determined to see them ground down and abandoned to a miserable fate, a fate that over 100 years of labor laws were created to avoid?

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [71] Change

    I think you misprehend West’s point.

    I also think you are advocating an idea of giving preference to native-born americans; I’m agnostic as to that view, but I think you will have a hard time with the dems on that.

    Amazingly, the two groups that should be for stronger immigration laws and enforcement, unions and the LMI earner/welfare communities, are largely against it. Seems to me that more illegals and more amnesty is antithetical to their interests, but so be it.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [71] change

    you are also advocating protectionism; even immigration enforcement and hire americans first policies will have no effect if the sectors that can be offshored are offshored.

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [70] change

    “I am curious if you think the story was “spin” or just my comments about it.”

    Both, actually, but thanks for expanding on it. As for Texas, haven’t been there in a long time, but being for workers and being against business is kind of a nonsequitur, and you end up being Michigan rather than Texas. Ask Texans which they’d rather be. By contrast, if you are for employers coming into your state, you are for employees. It’s hard to be in favor of job creation but against those getting the jobs. Rather, it seems that by fostering a hospitable environment, you are creating demand, you create upward pressure on wages and benefits. At least that’s what they taught us in Econ 101. If Texas isn’t seeing wage growth, its because people are moving into the state to get jobs. I think demographic data will back me up on that.

    So, in order that the job growth lift wages, should Texas seal its borders and prevent people from moving there? It sounds like you are suggesting this. I will tell you that should Texas try, it would be clubbed into submission by the ACLU, using very clear Supreme Court precedents that prohibit such restrictions.

  71. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    Hahaha, this will get the ball rolling – give us our recording fees crooks

    Merscorp, Bank of America Sued by Dallas District Attorney

    http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LRUFFV6K50Y401-524CH7KVJ5FFB0L8AHOVC4EHIC

  72. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Gonna leave now, but just moved more cash into my trading account. I think the Crash of 2011 is upon us soon, and I want to be ready with my bottom jigs to do a little fishing.

    BTW, JJ, I was thinking about you. How’d your BAC pref hold up?

  73. toomuchchange says:

    73 —

    Yes I am advocating protectionism.

    Yes I am advocating being like every other country on earth and like we used to be here too: I think our own citizens, in general, should get our jobs.

    I will be blunt and I will say that I am unwilling to continue to have this country be a place where massive numbers of foreigners can come to “have a better life” while our own lives are getting harder with each passing year. I am not willing to make such a sacrifice, I am unwilling that other Americans be asked to make such a sacrifice and frankly, my resentment is growing day by day that others are demanding that such a sacrifice be made. The people who make such demands are never themselves willing to give up their jobs for a worthy immigrant, nor change their own standards of living.

    Where can average Americans go to “have a better life”? The answer is nowhere, of course. We are stuck here, sitting ducks for the giving away of what our ancestors worked so hard to accomplish.

    I am waiting for the first report of an American to give up his or her own job to a worthy immigrant. The presumption that we have infinite jobs and that nobody is hurt by mass immigration is a ridiculous myth that needs to be exploded.

    I disagree with the leadership of both parties who by their actions, if not their words, want to have a large and steady flow of immigrant labor available. I do not. I also do not want a rapidly increasing population, which because of automatic birthright citizenship, is what we are currently experiencing and will continue to experience — at an ever accelerating rate. I am also willing to tax and otherwise discourage offshore outsourcers of jobs.

    We cannot go on importing workers and exporting jobs without falling further into an economic and social abyss.

  74. fka 2010 Buyer says:

    Wjob (insert description) that pays (insert range) that only immigrants apply for?

    Or is the argument that there are employers that need workers and they purposely overlook Americans and prefer immigrants?

  75. chicagofinance says:

    If you are willing to bet that BAC doesnt default or the sub debt is not impaired significantly, you can find some sizzling stuff……

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    September 22, 2011 at 2:44 pm
    BTW, JJ, I was thinking about you. How’d your BAC pref hold up?

  76. Anon E. Moose says:

    Shore [35];

    Did I hear correctly that the Dow is down over 300 points?

    I wonder why Yahoo! Finance doesn’t take the Dow ticker/graph down off their front page on the up days, only the severe down ones.

    Its like we’ve got our own version of Kremlinology – you know what concerns the leaders by what DOESN’T get discussed in Pravda and by observing who sits next to whom on the parade dais.

  77. Libtard in Union says:

    1.70 crossed the ticker.

  78. toomuchchange says:

    74 —

    “As for Texas, haven’t been there in a long time, but being for workers and being against business is kind of a nonsequitur, and you end up being Michigan rather than Texas. Ask Texans which they’d rather be.”

    It would seem that the better choice is to pick more jobs available even at lousy wages, but with so many Texan jobs going to immigrants, it might be easier for American-born workers to get a job in Michigan.

    Frankly this isn’t a choice I’d want to be make. Would you?

    Here’s another case where the currently available “a” or “b” choices are plain lousy today and look like they’ll get worse instead of better. We need better options.

  79. Juice Box says:

    The End Is Not Neigh (Geek Edition) –

    Perhaps we can send Marty back in time to Warn Doc
    not to inflate the credit bubble.

    For the geeks, it seems Einstein’s STR (Special Theory of Relativity)
    is about to take a hit.

    vhttp://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BREAKING_LIGHT_SPEED?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

  80. make money says:

    Are we going to step on a gas here for the last 30 minutes? ala 2008

  81. Happy Renter says:

    “Stocks crater on global worries”
    http://money.cnn.com/2011/09/22/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?hpt=hp_t2

    Well. This was certainly unexpected.

  82. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [77] change

    Well said.

  83. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Did the PPT get stuck in traffic?

  84. toomuchchange says:

    Jesus, Dow was down by 528 points; now down 471.

  85. 3B says:

    Mad Men, Pan AM, Operation Twist, 1.74 10 year, 3.25 30 year mtgs??? Back to the 1960’s kids!!!

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Sooo want to go shopping now that stocks I like are hitting my value indicators. But I ran out of cash in my trading account.

    Taking advantage to get the kind of stocks that have high barriers to entry, great yields, and very low betas. Some are off 20% on the year. Will be pleased with the rebalancing once it’s done and if these picks hold up.

  87. 3B says:

    Former Vice Chair of the Fed (Blinder) Says Bernanke will never give up!!!

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/bernanke-never-alan-blinder-121824242.html

  88. Juice Box says:

    re: #93 – 3B definition of insanity? How about criminal insanity?

  89. 3B says:

    #93 Indeed!! Oh and can someone remind me why I need to run out and buy a house now?

  90. freedy says:

    We only finished down 391 on the dow. No problem, Bo will explain to the
    American People how everything is under control and things we begin to rebound
    soon.

    Please do not eat at fast food joints, in that it’s bad for your health. His wife said
    so.

  91. Al Mossberg says:

    10 year bond at 1.71. Unf_ckin believable.

    Best rate I see is now 3.75 again but looks like 3.625 is on the board with 775 in fees.

  92. Confused in NJ says:

    Timmy & Benny erased 20% of the DOW losses today with the Treasury printing press. Timmy is now the largest stockholder in the world.

  93. Al Mossberg says:

    56.

    Re: Solar

    I have solar panels. 2.2 kw. Paid 10,500.

    *30% Fed tax credit = 3000
    *SREC at $600/credit. 2 per year = 1200. 1200 annually x 15 years = $18,000 (tax free)
    *Average annual savings in electric bill = $600. 600 x 20 years = $12,000

    Total out of pocket cost = 10,500 (-3000 for tax credit)
    Potential savings and income = 20,000

    SRECs will drop in value over time. This is true but cost of electricity is going to sky rocket. The numbers worked for me. I would have put 10kw up if I had the roof space. My main motivation was dumping fiat garbage into something tangible.

  94. Prof. McDullard says:

    toomuch…

    Your reasoning becomes a bit flawed because you are lumping diverse types of immigrants (documented/undocumented; people that are putting roots here/people on temp visas with plans of leaving soon; people that go through the whole education process, become experts, and eventually give back way more than what the country provided them with; good guys/bad guys; cheap guys/classy guys). Likewise, there is no one representative “native” — my personal experience has been that at the top levels, the native born are really way up there, and most immigrants cannot even dream of having that sense of self confidence, being secure in themselves, and be fearless. At moderate and low levels, the immigrants typically do beat the natives easily — many of them are as conceited and ignorant, but are very afraid to say anything, so they are very polite. So, one theory won’t fit all…

    I do agree that there are tonnes of loopholes wrt work related immigration, and the outsourcing lobby does seem very powerful. The “small business” lobby has also been very successful in keeping the feds at the bay while they hire cheap labor.

    However, all said and done, it is better for the country to grow the pie and everyone getting a good share, than to shrink dramatically with preferential treatment to natives. I do have trouble with the term natives because the only guys that are true natives are the ones that got almost driven to extinction, and the remaining ones live in third world conditions even though they are surrounded by a sea of wealth.

  95. toomuchchange says:

    99 —

    Usually I make these distinctions. In this case, I did not because I was talking about the mass immigration that has occurred over the past 30 years.

    I know you are an legal immigrant and I hope — and should have said before — that my comments were not directed at past legal immigrants. But I feel strongly, for the reasons I indicated, that total immigration must be drastically reduced. I also believe that automatic birthright citizenship must be eliminated for some immigrants. Certainly for illegal immigrants, and possibly for immigrants who are here temporarily.

    We are committing future generations to taking care of hundreds of millions of additional people with what we are doing now. We don’t have the resources now that we need. We have no right placing such an enormous burden of future generations.

  96. toomuchchange says:

    99 — Please believe me, I like everybody but everybody can’t come here.

  97. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    Re 80,

    Moose you aren’t the only one who’s noticed that;)

  98. Fabius Maximus says:

    He1l Yea!

    “You built a factory out there? Good for you,” she says. “But I want to be clear: you moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did.”

    She continues: “Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea? God bless. Keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”

    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20110042-503544.html

  99. yo'me says:

    Everybody is flocking to useless dollar dxy up 6% from aug.Treasuries yield so low,they are basically giving uncle sam dollars.Bernk is burning the debt down and burning the savers at the same time with low rates.Giving away money to companies and the rich that can get a mortgage ,with low rates.Gap between the rich and the poor just keep on widening.Flight to security.

  100. Prof. McDullard says:

    toomuch… I sympathize with your position, but there is no easy solution — and there can even be questions about whether reduced immigration is the solution. For example, would a mass influx of rich (with black money that needs some laundering) from 3rd world places be good?

    Things are very complex. For example, when we are in recession and have a crushing debt, should we cut spending or increase spending on creating jobs? Such complexities result in simple solutions: cut spending for the poor, and increase spending to cover bonuses of banksters.

  101. yo'me says:

    “European parliaments are now focused on approving a July plan to expand the scope of the 440-billion euro ($593 billion) European Financial Stability Facility to allow it to buy the debt of stressed euro-area governments, aid troubled banks and offer credit lines. Its current role is to sell bonds to fund rescue loans for cash-strapped governments. ”
    They need to do more.Brnk printed $1.6T in QE2 add QE1.Investors are scared of getting burned.Let the EU central bank guarantee the loans.Print baby Print

  102. hoodafa says:

    NJ Has Most Towns on Moody’s Junk-Bond List

    Six New Jersey local governments, the most from any state, are among a list of 25 municipal-debt issuers with speculative ratings compiled by Moody’s Investment Service.

    The issuers carried a combined $413.3 million in debt in fiscal 2009, the report said. That represents about 4 percent of the less than $10 billion owed in aggregate. Four-fifths of the total was owed by the Philadelphia School District; Jefferson County, Alabama; Detroit; and Detroit’s public schools.

    More at: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/nj-has-most-towns-on-moody-s-junk-bond-list.html

  103. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Hoodafa 107 Why does Camden not surprise me , Weehawken did go figure.

  104. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (103) fabius

    The only thing missing was the ending where Carmine, er, Warren says “if you mention extortion again, I’ll have your legs broken.”

  105. Fabius Maximus says:

    #110 Nom

    Does that mean you are putting her on Double Secret Liberal Probabtion!

  106. change (77)-

    Wow. Our first outright call on this board for outright protectionism.

    Might want to dust off some old pieces on Smoot-Hawley and how well that thingy worked out.

    Protectionism is fool’s gold. However, I can understand its easy appeal to the desperate. Perhaps instituting it would at least make people feel better for a while.

    Too bad that no matter how you slice it, this whole thing ends in tears.

  107. chi (79)-

    Things that sizzle are generally too hot to handle.

  108. gluteus (103)-

    The roads are shoddily-built, develop potholes too easily and cost too much to build, given their short lifespan and poor quality.

    The workers we educated were educated poorly and at far too high a price. Germany manages to give a better public education for a fraction of the price. They- and about a dozen other countries- are now eating our lunch because our J6P is basically a Wall-e.

    Our fire and police forces- even at reduced levels- are pretty much unsustainable. Just wait and see what happens when lots of these guys figure out they’ll be eating Alpo twice a day in their golden years.

    There are plenty of marauding bands coming after my business. One is my extortionate municipality, one is the IRS, one is political officeholders (palms open and facing skyward) and one is the constant stream of dullards who expect me to be a combination of therapist and their goddam fairy godmother.

    So far, the only thing I see this country “paying forward” to the next generation is a giant statement of accounts due…with interest.

    BTW, your Gooners are still gonna get relegated. Will be fun to pick up a 4-Euro ticket at the Emirates and watch them battle titans like Sheffield Wednesday.

    —————————————————————————————————

    “You built a factory out there? Good for you,” she says. “But I want to be clear: you moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for; you hired workers the rest of us paid to educate; you were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory, and hire someone to protect against this, because of the work the rest of us did.”

  109. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    To heck with the Senate.

    Elizabeth Warren for Handicapper General!!!

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    111 fabius,

    It means I will be temporarily moving back to Mass just before the registration deadline. I may even show up at some of her rallies with large pro-socialist banners.

  111. TimFinch says:

    I’m in my 30s. My wife is a stay at home mom with two kids under 5 yrs old. We’ve lived in a 1 BR apartment in NJ for the past 6 years. I eat my dinner on an old computer desk, resting the plate on top of childrens books. My dining room is my livingroom. I commute into lower manhattan every day for a decent white collar job and depending on the NJ Transit delays, it takes an hour and a half. I throw three pieces of ham onto 2 pieces of bread in the morning and eat it for lunch. I’m happy because my wife gets to raise my amazing girls. Compared to a lot of people I don’t have much in the way of comforts or free time, but that has been my (our) choice. If I were a hipster, I’d say I was into austerity before it became popular.

    But anyway there’s this thing called “progress” and so I’ve been putting some pennies away with an eye on the real estate market, hoping to get the kids into a house like i grew up in. However, I’ve found when a rational buyer meets irrational, entitled sellers backed by government policy, it makes things difficult.

    To all of the people trying to prop up the housing market (berbama, sellers, agents), please stop. Yes I know you bought your place for $300k in 1999 and watched the zestimate go up to $750k in 2007 and therefore won’t take less than $600k but you’re effing kidding yourself. I’ve been steadily saving to buy a house but im not going to ruin my life to take your price. If you bought it for $750k in 2007 and now won’t take less than $700k, eff you even more. I’m not going to slip into your slave collar and make you rich on the way out. I’m happy for your loss. Its your turn for some austerity. You can have my apartment when I move into your foreclosure. Good luck finding a place for your knock hockey table and a parking spot on the street for whatever late model entertainment center on wheels you’re leasing these days.

    My question for those on the board is do you think this situation is ever going to change or do I just need to move to another state? Yes, housing should probably be a person’s biggest expense, but I don’t think it should be this inverted mountain of debt that the common man is forced to kneel under, praying the wind doesn’t shift and topple the thing down on him and that’s basically what it is like for anyone who has an ok but not amazing job and wants to live in NJ.

  112. A.West says:

    Tim,
    Congrats for not buying yet!

    NJ real estate commutable into NYC will probably always be more expensive than most parts of the country, as long as NYC remains a draw for relatively high income jobs. But prices are slowly dropping. Many here think they will drop further, some think they’re nearing the bottom.

    Remember that asking prices are only a starting point in negotiations. To cheer yourself up, look at houses with closing prices instead. Some sellers are just trolling for suckers. Some actually need to sell, and can afford to sell.

    Hopefully, you’ve saved some money while renting, so you can come in with 20% down, and still have some money left for furniture, repairs, and still have some money left over. If not, maybe you can step up to a larger rental. Don’t forget the property taxes in calculating costs – these days it can be a bigger expense than a mortgage, courtesey of your rapacious local government and their unions.

    Good luck.

Comments are closed.