Any questions?

From the Record:

Wall Street job cuts may affect New Jersey’s economy

New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli said on Tuesday that he expects Wall Street to cut nearly 10,000 more jobs by the end of the year and pay less in bonuses, a blow to the tax coffers of New York City and State. Securities-related activities accounted for 14 percent of New York State’s tax revenue last year.

The industry contributes less to New Jersey’s tax base, however, and the jobs and pay cuts are “not a major risk factor” for tax revenue, said Charles Steindel, the state Treasury Department’s chief economist.

“The wages and salaries paid by the financial industry in New Jersey are about 8 percent or 8.5 percent, and that’s pretty close to the national norm,” he said. “It’s not as critical an industry to the state of New Jersey as it is to New York. ”

Still, economists said on Tuesday that bad news for Wall Street is usually bad news for New Jersey, which is home to many stock and bond brokers, accountants and financial analysts who commute to New York from towns like Ridgewood and Franklin Lakes.

“Bergen and Morris counties have significant commutation of people to Wall Street,” said James W. Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers. He did not have exact figures, but he suspects there are enough commuters to Wall Street to have an impact on the local economy.

If they lose their jobs or get smaller bonuses, “the retailers in northeastern New Jersey are going to feel that.” Hughes said. “There will be less activity in the housing market, as well.”

After adding 9,900 jobs from January 2010 to April 2011, the securities industry has lost 4,100 jobs through August 2011.

If, as DiNapoli predicts, the securities industry loses nearly 10,000 more jobs by the end of 2012, that would bring total industry job losses to 32,000 since January 2008.

Patrick J. O’Keefe, director of economic research at the accounting firm of J.H. Cohn in Roseland, said the downturn on Wall Street is “an across-the-board negative for the regional economy, and that’s a negative for New Jersey.”

On the other hand, in the past, cost-cutting by financial firms led to relocation of jobs from Manhattan to New Jersey, where real estate prices are lower, and the current downturn may prompt more of that, he said.

“There is no system that tracks the pingpong of jobs back and forth across the Hudson,” O’Keefe said, “but on net I think New Jersey was a beneficiary of job relocation in the past decade. To the extent it’s going to occur, we’d rather have those jobs come to New Jersey than go to Timbuktu.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

104 Responses to Any questions?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Confused in NJ says:

    What else is new?

  3. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    US Housing Market Problems Are ‘Manageable’ Economist Says

    The U.S. housing market may begin to stabilize after another year or two as the mortgage finance industry works through oversupply from past building and the current foreclosure crisis, a leading economist said Tuesday.

    Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics who has been consulted by Congress, told mortgage bankers gathered for an industry conference in Chicago that tweaks, not necessarily a major new program, will be enough to help arrest the price declines that have been sapping confidence and keeping buyers away.

    Home prices may continue to drop as the share of distressed sales hovers at one-third or more of transactions, but an equilibrium that signals stability is in sight, he said. Nationally, home prices are down more than 30% since 2006.

    “I don’t think our problems are overwhelming … they are manageable,” Zandi said at the conference of the Mortgage Bankers Association, where more than 2,000 bankers have assembled to divine the future of their business.

    “The key to home prices is the share of home sales that are distressed,” Zandi said. “A year, year-and-a-half down the road that share will start coming down (and) you get price stability and then price growth.”

    Zandi’s remarks comes as others at the conference have laid out deep uncertainties about the effects of regulatory and economic factors, which are helping to cap the availability of mortgage funding. Foreclosures could depress prices in the near term, especially if and when states’ attorneys general reach a settlement with banks over improper servicing practices, he said.

    “As soon as (banks) have the opportunity, they will start blowing this through the pipeline” of foreclosures, Zandi said, noting conversations he’s had with executives from large banks.

    There are positive signs that demand may be improving for such foreclosures, such as shrinking discounts for distressed properties, he said.

  4. Mike says:

    Never mind them what about that poor guy pushing the hot dog wagon around?

  5. grim says:

    From the NY Times:

    Triggers for Rejection

    INSUFFICIENT INCOME Lenders want to make sure you can afford to make the mortgage payments. Someone who earns, say, $40,000 a year need not bid on a $750,000 apartment, unless there’s a trust fund with quarterly payouts or other money available. Also, lenders typically look for at least a two-year track record of income, which could hurt those who may have switched jobs recently. “It’s common to get turned down if you have a gap in employment history over the last two years,” said Erin Lantz, the director of the Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, an online loan-matching service.

    CLOUDY FINANCIAL PICTURE Generally, total debt payments, including the mortgage, cannot exceed 45 to 50 percent of your adjusted gross monthly income. Borrowers may be surprised at what counts and what doesn’t. Overtime and bonuses are included only if you’ve worked for the same employer at least two years, and have a history of receiving them, said Mark Lazar, who with his wife, Anna, owns Allied Financial, a mortgage brokerage in River Edge, N.J. Lenders may also disallow rental income from a property you own, unless you have at least 30 percent equity in it, he said.

    BAD CREDIT Lenders typically reject applicants with a FICO score below 620, Mrs. Lantz said. “Some lenders would draw the line a little higher, closer to 660,” she added, citing Zillow data that show about a third of Americans have credit scores so low they are unlikely to obtain any mortgage. Failing to pay your mortgage on time affects your score. “If you have late payments within the last 24 months on,” said Marisol Torruella, a loan originator with the New York Municipal Credit Union, “the likelihood of getting another mortgage is less.”

    LOW APPRAISAL You may think the home you’re refinancing or buying is worth around $800,000, but the appraiser says it’s closer to $700,000. Suddenly your new mortgage is in jeopardy. This is the predominant reason people are denied home loans today, according to industry experts.

    PROPERTY PROBLEMS Sometimes, Mr. Lazar said, issues turn up within a building, apartment unit or house, like a major repair or safety problem that needs to be addressed before an application can be approved. Other times, he said, it may be financial woes within a condominium or co-op, like having a large number of owners delinquent on their fees, or unfinished common areas or amenities.

    INFORMATION MIX-UPS About 12 percent of new mortgage applications were denied because of unverifiable information or incomplete credit applications, according to the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council. This also may include misinformation: If you’re renting out the property that you want to refinance, your application for an owner-occupied loan can be rejected, Mr. Fratantoni said.

  6. yo says:

    How about this 50 and above applying for 30 year mortgages.Does the mortgage company expect them to work above their 80’s?Do they even get paid for their risk?

  7. Nothing here that a crew of motivated Amish with beard clippers can’t fix.

  8. Don’t think the beard-clipping will mask the stench of death, though.

  9. grim (3)-

    File under: Beavis, meet Butthead.

    “Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics who has been consulted by Congress…”

  10. Green shoots.

    “We are confident the spinmasters will spin the first major domino in the muni crisis as bullish: after all it “removes uncertainty.” Bloomberg reports that “The city of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, facing a state takeover of its finances, filed for bankruptcy protection following a vote by the City Council, according to a lawyer for the council.Mark D. Schwartz, a Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania-based lawyer and a former public finance banker for Prudential Financial Inc., said he filed the documents by fax to a federal bankruptcy court last night. The filing couldn’t be confirmed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Harrisburg.The state capital of 49,500 faces a debt burden five times its general-fund budget because of an overhaul and expansion of a trash-to-energy incinerator that doesn’t generate enough revenue. “This was a last resort,’’ Schwartz said in an interview after the council voted 4-3 to seek bankruptcy protection. “They’re at their wits’ end.’’While bankruptcy would mean the loss of state aid under a law passed in June, it would be preferable to a proposed recovery plan, said Councilwoman Susan Brown-Wilson.” Well, at least Jefferson County will not have the dubious legacy of being the first muni to push everyone else over. And now that the precedent has been set (yes, Virginia, it can be done) watch as tens if not hundreds of other cash-strapped towns, cities, localities and other entities follow suit promptly to quite promptly.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/it-begins-harrisburg-files-bankruptcy-protection

  11. grim says:

    6 – Amortization length has nothing to do with anything anymore.

  12. yo says:

    We did very well when no credit check has nothing to do with anything anymore S/O

    “6 – Amortization length has nothing to do with anything anymore.”

  13. Confused in NJ says:

    Traumatic brain injury is the “signature wound” among those serving in Iraq and Afghanistan, accounting for 22 percent of all casualties and 59 percent of blast-related injuries, said Kristine Yaffe, a psychiatry professor at the University of California, San Francisco. Yaffe is also director of the memory disorders program at the San Francisco VA Medical Center.

    According to the U.S. Department of Defense, 161,025 service members were diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury from 2000 to 2009.

  14. Juice Box says:

    Limelight in NYC is now an iHop?

  15. grim says:

    12 – You are making an errant assumption that the majority of borrowers require 30 years to pay back a mortgage, with the alternative being default. This isn’t the case.

    Average length of a mortgage in the US is something like 4-7 years, average length of home ownership is 8-12 years.

    Not sure what current mortgage prepayment rates look like, but based on the last refi wave, that percentage over the past year is probably in the low double digits.

    Lastly, denying a 30 year amortization to a 50 year old is discrimination, period.

  16. grim says:

    Based on the estate sales I’ve been a part of, and others I know of, dead sellers typically have no problem whatsoever paying back any outstanding mortgages on the sale of their properties. Hell, in this market, dead sellers are probably the best sellers.

  17. JJ says:

    New York Jets Trade Derrick Mason to Houston Texans for Conditional Pick

    Talk smack about my team, you better get the heck out of the clubhouse!

  18. gary says:

    BTW, great title for this thread! ;)

  19. 3B says:

    #6 Yo: I do not think those people plan on paying the mtg into their 80’s. I would imagine they are looking to stay there 15 or 20 years and then retire/downsize etc. Also what about all the people in their late 40’s and 50’s who in addition to the mtg have big home equity loans and HELOC’s that have to be paid off/ They are in no better place than the 50 year old getting a new mtg. And what about all the people who are delaying marriage and children well into their 40’s and older/ I know some one 50 with a toddler and a newborn, spouse quit work to be SAHM, and they are buying a house. This is becoming more and more common. My point is the days of buying a house and paying it off over 30 years is over.

  20. JJ says:

    This sucks, euro crisis is getting near resolution bond market calming down and then this morning I get a call notice on this bond!!

    NEW YORK ST ENERGY RESH & DEV AUTH 05.45000% 08/01/2027POLLUTN CTL REV POLLUTN CTL REF REV

    Where the heck am I going to get an A rated 5.45% tax free bond at par to replace this? Why or why me? Damm Greeks.

  21. gary says:

    If they lose their jobs or get smaller bonuses, “the retailers in northeastern New Jersey are going to feel that.” Hughes said. “There will be less activity in the housing market, as well.”

    tick… tick… tick… tick…

  22. JJ says:

    At kindergarten orientation it is very common to see 50 year old dads and moms, so what? Most people don’t realize that SS payments do not count on financial aid forms and mortgage payments are debt that help you. Also financial aid does not count stuff like a 401K. The old dad whose kids start college in year he retires at 67 Will have majority of cash in a 401k or IRA, will have no income coming in from a job, will have SS payments (two sets), older parents wives usually worked from 21-50 that don’t count and stilll have a mortgage which counts as debt which is good.

    Best college financial aid planning I can give anyone is wait till you are retired to send kids to school. Greatly limit your 401k or IRA distributions to as little as possible, run up HELOC or Home Equity etc. to take on more debt. When last kid through school at end of year take a larger distribution and pay off loans. Worse time in life for kids to hit college is between 45 and 60 your peak earning years.

    3B says:
    October 12, 2011 at 8:46 am
    #6 Yo: I do not think those people plan on paying the mtg into their 80′s. I would imagine they are looking to stay there 15 or 20 years and then retire/downsize etc. Also what about all the people in their late 40′s and 50′s who in addition to the mtg have big home equity loans and HELOC’s that have to be paid off/ They are in no better place than the 50 year old getting a new mtg. And what about all the people who are delaying marriage and children well into their 40′s and older/ I know some one 50 with a toddler and a newborn, spouse quit work to be SAHM, and they are buying a house. This is becoming more and more common. My point is the days of buying a house and paying it off over 30 years is over.

  23. yo says:

    I know most people usually sell their homes after 5 years in a normal market.Most bloggers here are projecting a 15 year flat market.My point is,the banks are not being compensated for the risk they are taking for giving loans to 50 years and over that can loose a job and not be able to find one because of their age (descrimination)will not be able to work till they finish paying their mortgage.
    I know a couple down south jersey working for the casino’s high credit score,20% down that can not get a mortgage or get a good rate,simply because the casino’s are downsizing.

  24. 3B says:

    #23 JJ If you say so. But speaking for myself I would rather be my age and almost done with the college thing (and paid for) in a couple of years, than dealing with all of that in my 60’s; to each his own.

  25. 3B says:

    #212 JJ The Euro crisis is not being resolved, just postponed. This is just a little breathing room for Greece right now, but all the rest of it remains.

  26. 3B says:

    #22 gary An article in NYT’s this morning state that Mr. Di Napoli is too optimistic and the 10k number too low. As far as NJ and firm’s relocating, only back office and middle manager jobs get relocated to NJ. The big bucks/bonus jobs are in NYC.

  27. JJ says:

    HA HA – In their 60s. You make it sound old.
    My point was the parents who are retired when kids hit school don’t have to deal with it. They will get a free ride. Problem is folks like you will pay for your own kids education out of pocket and then the older parents kids education out of your taxes.

    Also when retired much much easier to move money around for financial aid purposes. Lets say I make a normal middle class 200K salary on the book. Kids hit school I am screwed. Let say I am retired. I can pre-pay burial plot, pre-pay insurance, pre-pay taxes, but a vacation home overseas, buy a collecter car, Harley, boat, set up a Hamptons home in a trust so not in my name. Do all sorts of things you can’t do with a paycheck. A paycheck is a paycheck.

    3B says:
    October 12, 2011 at 9:00 am
    #23 JJ If you say so. But speaking for myself I would rather be my age and almost done with the college thing (and paid for) in a couple of years, than dealing with all of that in my 60′s; to each his own.

  28. JJ says:

    New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli is a mommy’s boy from Great Neck Long Island who never worked a day in his life, makes peanuts, barely owns anything and does not invest in stocks. How he got this job is beyond me.

  29. grim says:

    Anyone know who is going to occupy the huge new data center being built in Clifton on the old ADP campus near Costco? Credit Suisse?

    Assume it will be operating mostly lights out since there doesn’t appear to be much (if any) parking for employees.

  30. 3B says:

    #28 JJ Like I said to each his own, but IMO being in your 60’s with teens etc is not something for me. Plus I would not want to be starting out at 50 with kids, and getting laid off at say 55 with a 5 year old and a 2 year old. Again just my opinion.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    I have widow client who is 60 and she has twin 5 year olds…..

  32. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (28) JJ

    Good advice but not new. Been preaching that for years.

  33. Juice Box says:

    re: 50s and kids.

    My Grandma had her 10th child when she was in her 50s, and she lived another 32 years. He youngest inherited the house and basically took care of Grandma and Grandpa after the rest had moved out which was about two decades before when they all were teenagers.

  34. x-everything says:

    24.yo says:
    I know a couple down south jersey working for the casino’s high credit score,20% down that can not get a mortgage or get a good rate,simply because the casino’s are downsizing.

    You’re missing something. Its illegal to decline anyone because the industry they work in is downsizing. They might be telling you that but there’s something else preventing them from getting approved. Maybe they can’t document enough income to qualify for the mortgage

  35. JJ says:

    Actually I think both our approaches are wrong. If I had it to do over, would have got married young to some smoking hot girl, knocked out two girls. Got divorced by 27 when I was making peanuts so no real alimony then go to hamptons/NYC/Skiing Partying from 27-40. Then get married to some really rich girl who around 35 and a career gal who had maxed out her 401K and savings who owns her own home and has a big inherance coming. Then knock out two sons.

    Meanwhile my two daughters from first marriage would be perfect babysitting age and would want to bond with their little brothers. So I can go out with new wife all I want.

    Meanwhile my ex did remarry on Labor day 2001 and tragically her ten day old husband a bond trader at Cantor met his fate a few days after the marriage and left the ex and the kids millions and million of dollars.

    Meanwhile around 50 I am stick of working and decide if it is good enough for Mitt Romney it is good enough for me and I become Morman and remarry my ex-wife, keep my current wife. The wives become best friends and go to see spiderman the muscial and tragically the cord breaks lose and Spiderman falls on them and I inherit multiple millions and win a billion dollar lawsuit.

    Next year Jets go 0 and 16, don’t win a game, wooody Johnson dies and I buy team for a song. Jets put in deal Sanchez gets my sloppy seconds, and I get my choice of cheerleaders after each game. Jets then go on to win superbowl and it starts a new dynasty in NY. I die at age of 107 after my after bedding a 21 year old cheerleader after my 30 superbowl win that was won with my Grandson being the starting QB who also won Superbowl MVP

    3B says:
    October 12, 2011 at 9:13 am
    #28 JJ Like I said to each his own, but IMO being in your 60′s with teens etc is not something for me. Plus I would not want to be starting out at 50 with kids, and getting laid off at say 55 with a 5 year old and a 2 year old. Again just my opinion.

  36. Libtard in Union says:

    JJ = Delirious

  37. Libtard in Union says:

    My Money Blog
    Percentage of New Mortgages Backed By US Government = 90%+

    http://www.mymoneyblog.com/percentage-of-new-mortgages-backed-by-us-government-90.html

    Pretty interesting.

  38. Captain Foresight HEHEHE says:

    Clot,

    Harrisburg is a big deal not just because of the fact they filed but because the state legislature did everything they could to make it illegal for the city to file to protect from the spread of statewide credit downgrades. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

  39. Juice Box says:

    Tard – No incentive for private label MBS. The new Dodd Frank risk-retention regulation requires lenders to hold a 5% vertical slice of any securitization. You think that the banks can afford that, or would even want to? The total of 2005-2008 private label MBS was about 2 trillion, do you think any originator is going to give loans to deadbeats and defaulters if they have to bear the risk?

    As long as they keep boosting the amount mortgages Fannie, Freddie, FHA can stuff onto their balance sheets and pass off the risk and the hundreds of billions so far in losses to the taxpayer the lender of last resort the taxpayer will remain at 90% of the market.

  40. 3B says:

    #32 chgo: WOW!!! We could not do it.

  41. 3B says:

    #35 Sounds like the old country back in the day. At least she finished at 50 and did not start, but like I said to each his own.

  42. danxp says:

    37 jj

    excellent!!

    are you saying dirty sanchez could be a superbowl champ?

  43. xmonger says:

    In planning for a scenario where the European debt bomb takes out US banks in the not too distant future, what would you do with copious amounts of cash now?

  44. JJ says:

    Freddie Mac to Redeem 1% Notes Due 2013

    I don;t think I have ever seen a bond with a 1% coupon called early as the company could get a better rate. Amazing stuff

  45. JJ says:

    If I am dreaming 2-2-2014 Jets beat Giants in Supebowl in Overtime at New Meadowlands Stadium. Of course I get invited to afterparty.

    danxp says:
    October 12, 2011 at 10:51 am
    37 jj

    excellent!!

    are you saying dirty sanchez could be a superbowl champ?

  46. HE (40)-

    My guess would be a cascading series of downgrades.

    Good times.

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [42] chifi

    LMAO

  48. x (46)-

    Do the time-honored move: hookers and blow.

    “In planning for a scenario where the European debt bomb takes out US banks in the not too distant future, what would you do with copious amounts of cash now?”

  49. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    I KNEW IT!!!!!!!!!!

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44875711

    I was wondering for a long time when this might happen. In fact, I was discussing it with someone last night with respect to Goldman.

  50. …or shiny and .223.

  51. plume (53)-

    Fascist States of Amerika, baby.

    Get used to it.

  52. JJ says:

    Michael Lohan and Larry Kudlow already did that in the 1980s

    There Went Meat says:
    October 12, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    x (46)-

    Do the time-honored move: hookers and blow.

    “In planning for a scenario where the European debt bomb takes out US banks in the not too distant future, what would you do with copious amounts of cash now?”

  53. JJ says:

    Breaking News
    DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ERASES 2011 LOSS

    BULL MARKET!!!

  54. homeboken says:

    Sep 20, 2011 – S&P – 1219
    Oct 03, 2011 – S&P – 1078
    Oct 12, 2011 – S&P – 1215 (and climbing)

    You can call it a bull market if you like, but the volatility in the broad indexes is not indicative of a healthy market. Things are seriously broken when you can have -12% swings and then positive 12% swings in such s short period.

    Breaking News
    DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE ERASES 2011 LOSS

    BULL MARKET!!!

  55. schabadoo says:

    Most bloggers here are projecting a 15 year flat market.

    I could use tonight’s lottery numbers, if anyone has them.

  56. 3B says:

    #60 sch: During the last housing bubble.burst, the market was flat for 10 years, and that was nothing to this boom and bust; only 15 years flat is optimistic.

  57. xmonger says:

    clot (51,54)

    LMAO. I think the most wifey will sign-off on is strippers and alcohol.

    I have the G&A bit covered. I just need to figure out how much physical gold should be in the safe or do I just horde gasoline for a Mad Max type scenario?

    “Do the time-honored move: hookers and blow.”
    “…or shiny and .223.”

  58. schabadoo says:

    #61 3b: I’d be impressed by anyone that can predict that far into the future. Hyperinflation, SRS, Dow 6000, Jets Super Bowl….it’s a long list of clunkers.

  59. 3B says:

    #63 Well if the last bubble is any indication, and it certainly should be, as I said 15 years with a flat market is way too optimistic.

  60. jamil says:

    Shut down HUD, Fannie Mae and repeal Community Extortion Act

    WSJ:
    “Wall Street’s Gullible Occupiers
    The protesters have been sold a bill of goods. Reckless government policies, not private greed, brought about the housing bubble and resulting financial crisis.

    Beginning in 1992, the government required Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to direct a substantial portion of their mortgage financing to borrowers who were at or below the median income in their communities. The original legislative quota was 30%. But the Department of Housing and Urban Development was given authority to adjust it, and through the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations HUD raised the quota to 50% by 2000 and 55% by 2007.

    It is certainly possible to find prime borrowers among people with incomes below the median. But when more than half of the mortgages Fannie and Freddie were required to buy were required to have that characteristic, these two government-sponsored enterprises had to significantly reduce their underwriting standards.

    Fannie and Freddie were not the only government-backed or government-controlled organizations that were enlisted in this process. The Federal Housing Administration was competing with Fannie and Freddie for the same mortgages. And thanks to rules adopted in 1995 under the Community Reinvestment Act, regulated banks as well as savings and loan associations had to make a certain number of loans to borrowers who were at or below 80% of the median income in the areas they served.

    The narrative that came out of these events—largely propagated by government officials and accepted by a credulous media—was that the private sector’s greed and risk-taking caused the financial crisis and the government’s policies were not responsible. This narrative stimulated the punitive Dodd-Frank Act—fittingly named after Congress’s two key supporters of the government’s destructive housing policies.”

  61. Juice Box says:

    re: #53 Comrade – They even acknowledged a conflict of interest to their own clients, Sorkin wrote about it in January 2010 in the NY Times, and the DOJ said there was no fraud, heck even Obama even reiterated their was no fraud committed by the Banks last week. Everything that happened during the housing bubble, with CDOs,MERS, CDS, betting against the ABX, the ratings agencies frauds, the insurance frauds and everything leading up to it including the actions of Congress and the Fed will be forgotten.

  62. Anon E. Moose says:

    Mossberg [yesterday];

    The income tax was introduced as a tax on the rich then what happened?

    It still is. Only 53% pay it. Most of the rest get income tax “refunds” (how you can refund something that wasn’t paid in the first palce is another matter altogether). The only trick is continuing to obscure how far down the incoms scale you can be and still be “rich”.

  63. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Best college financial aid planning I can give anyone is wait till you are retired to send kids to school. Greatly limit your 401k or IRA distributions to as little as possible, run up HELOC or Home Equity etc. to take on more debt. When last kid through school at end of year take a larger distribution and pay off loans. Worse time in life for kids to hit college is between 45 and 60 your peak earning years.

    LOL JJ figured out our plan. In 2019 when our oldest graduates HS, I’ll be 59, retired, and saddled with all kinds of debt, even though we’re practically debt free right now. Our daughters are also in free one-on-one mentoring programs at Harvard right now. Best tutors you can get, and it’s free at the Harvard Ed Portal with state of the art Computers (Cinema Display Macs, Microsoft Surfaces) Nine years from now all of their mentors, which we keep in contact with, will be established Harvard alums approaching age 30. Recommendation letters, you know?

  64. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [17];

    Hell, in this market, dead sellers are probably the best sellers.

    Sing it, brother!

  65. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #68 – I have one more year than I thought. Daughter will graduate from Boston Latin in 2020, next one in 2022. I’ll be 59-1/2 September 2019. What kind of interest rate will I get financing my houses in 2019 right before I retire? It’s not re-financing if they’re paid off, right?

  66. JJ says:

    How do you get into Harvard for free?

    I took the approach my two older siblings did not even realize exist. Every school is required to admit a certain amount of disadvantged students who do not meet the entrance requirements. I applied to four schools in total. Two I clearly did not come close to entrance requirements, one where I was on fence and one safety school. Of course the one on fence did not accept me niether did safety school. The two good schools told me since I was not qualified to attend I can attend, so I went to the hard school. Plus I got my room, meal plan and books paid for as a bonus!!

    Most of my friends will be 59 when their kids graduate elementary school. My first cousin got married at 44 to a 52 year old and had three kids back to back to back. She had last kid 47 when husband was 57. Funny part is grandpa is like 90 and babysitting.

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    October 12, 2011 at 2:39 pm
    Best college financial aid planning I can give anyone is wait till you are retired to send kids to school. Greatly limit your 401k or IRA distributions to as little as possible, run up HELOC or Home Equity etc. to take on more debt. When last kid through school at end of year take a larger distribution and pay off loans. Worse time in life for kids to hit college is between 45 and 60 your peak earning years.

    LOL JJ figured out our plan. In 2019 when our oldest graduates HS, I’ll be 59, retired, and saddled with all kinds of debt, even though we’re practically debt free right now. Our daughters are also in free one-on-one mentoring programs at Harvard right now. Best tutors you can get, and it’s free at the Harvard Ed Portal with state of the art Computers (Cinema Display Macs, Microsoft Surfaces) Nine years from now all of their mentors, which we keep in contact with, will be established Harvard alums approaching age 30. Recommendation letters, you know?

  67. Prof. McDullard says:

    Moose… #67

    You are talking about “federal income taxes”. State taxes follow a different schedule — and a larger percent pay them. Of course, there are other things like payroll taxes, property taxes (ownership or indirectly via rentals), sales taxes, etc. Do you have the stats on the refunds that the 47% get? Child tax credits? Earned income credits? Welfare?

    I am sure the 47% number includes college students that often make well below the tax threshold, and even grad students from countries like China where the students’ income — high 20’s for a TA/GA — is not taxed at all.

    It’s not like people that have jobs need to be jealous about the majority of jobless that may in fact get some refund. Many here can agree that folks that get golden parachutes after running companies (and the economy) to ground are getting a much better deal than the most conniving low income person ever could.

  68. Barbara says:

    Dead sellers have offspring that are in debt, unemployed and wanting of used corvettes. IME dead sellers are the worst sellers.

  69. NJGator says:

    Rick Scott wants to shift university funding away from some degrees

    Future anthropology majors be warned, Gov. Rick Scott does not believe such programs contribute much to Florida’s economy and wants them on the losing end of university funding decisions.

    Reforming Florida’s college and university system will be one of Scott’s top priorities when the state Legislature convenes in January, the governor said in an interview Monday with the Herald-Tribune.

    Leading Scott’s list of changes: Shifting funding to degrees that have the best job prospects, weeding out unproductive professors and rethinking the system that offers faculty job security.

    The governor has been discussing the ideas in interviews across the state as he previews a soon-to be released 2012 legislative agenda. Scott also is paving the way for the changes by making them central to his appointment process for new university board members.

    Scott said Monday that he hopes to shift more funding to science, technology, engineering and math departments, the so-called “STEM” disciplines. The big losers: Programs like psychology and anthropology and potentially schools like New College in Sarasota that emphasize a liberal arts curriculum.

    “If I’m going to take money from a citizen to put into education then I’m going to take that money to create jobs,” Scott said. “So I want that money to go to degrees where people can get jobs in this state.”

    “Is it a vital interest of the state to have more anthropologists? I don’t think so.”

    http://htpolitics.com/2011/10/10/rick-scott-wants-to-shift-university-funding-away-from-some-majors/

  70. joyce says:

    72
    you’re right, but when you mention only the two extremes of corporate welfare (the worst of the worst) and the “typical welfare” case… you’re ignoring what’s left of the entire middle class which is getting decimated at an ever increasing exponential rate

  71. nj escapee says:

    Gator, re: 74, Not sure what to make of it. Does the guv think this will help create better paying employment opportunities in Florida or is he merely targeting Liberal Arts as it is studied by liberals? or both? He’s already mandated drug testing for welfare recipients. I have no dog in the hunt but it sure seems that he wants Florida to become Texas.

  72. joyce says:

    76-
    I agree; One may or may not agree with the intentions of that idea; honestly, I think it sounds half decent. But I’m only certain of one thing, more government intrusion into education will have unintended consequences… and they won’t be pretty.

  73. 3B says:

    #&4 NJ Gator: And who is to say those jobs will not outsourced? Sri Lanka for instance is filled with young people with accounting degrees. Lots of high end accounting work being shipped over there. So what are we going to do have everyone major in Math?

  74. NJGator says:

    nj escapee – The two cents of my Floridian co-worker…

    Rick Scott: “I want that money to go to degrees where people can get jobs in this state.”

    When do they start offering a BA in Pole Dancing?

  75. JJ says:

    Pole dancing in europe is now a sports competition. It does require talent. However, most talent I ever saw was the golden shower booth. Girl was balanced on two little rails on top of free standing shower, she squated and pee’d on command. That is a little harder than a pole dance

  76. House Whine says:

    Aren’t most jobs in Florida service type jobs? How many corporations are headquartered there? The wages in Florida are really low. It’s a state with so many senior citizens and retirees what is the point of worrying about whether someone majored in liberal arts or the sciences. I am SO glad I don’t live there but I do like to visit. Sounds like backwards thinking to me.

  77. hughesrep says:

    78

    It’s Florida. They are more likely to major in meth.

  78. jamil says:

    81 backwards?

    If you want to major in post colonial queer studies, by all means, go for it. However, scarse tax payer money should not be wasted on non-sense.

    Likewise, gov should not guarantee student loans for degrees that have no employment prospect (beyond parasitic gov mandated positions)

  79. Juice Box says:

    re: 78 – 3B – “have everyone major in Math?”

    I think by the time time junior high is over you can predict who will be studying linear algebra and multivariate calculus, no need to tell Johnny he has a chance at not digging ditches.

  80. JJ says:

    I never liked Math and was never good at Math. Couldn’t pass a math test if you put a gun to my head.
    Lucky for me spelling and math are not that important in America.

    Juice Box says:
    October 12, 2011 at 4:48 pm
    re: 78 – 3B – “have everyone major in Math?”

    I think by the time time junior high is over you can predict who will be studying linear algebra and multivariate calculus, no need to tell Johnny he has a chance at not digging ditches.

  81. nj escapee says:

    Whine, 81 don’t look now but Jersey is losing it’s high paying jobs to places like FL, TN, MS, CN, IN, etc.. There’s no lock on high pay with the little invention called the internet. NJ residents will be stuck with high taxes and depreciating housing for at least a generation.

  82. yo says:

    Reminds of the banana cutter

    JJ says:
    October 12, 2011 at 4:21 pm
    Pole dancing in europe is now a sports competition. It does require talent. However, most talent I ever saw was the golden shower booth. Girl was balanced on two little rails on top of free standing shower, she squated and pee’d on command. That is a little harder than a pole dance

  83. chicagofinance says:

    sorry…I need to post again….smite with liquid gold….
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6qQKsieo8U

  84. chicagofinance says:

    To what JJ refers….

    yo says:
    October 12, 2011 at 5:20 pm
    Reminds of the banana cutter

    JJ says:
    October 12, 2011 at 4:21 pm
    Pole dancing in europe is now a sports competition. It does require talent. However, most talent I ever saw was the golden shower booth. Girl was balanced on two little rails on top of free standing shower, she squated and pee’d on command. That is a little harder than a pole dance

    WSJ
    10/11
    BUDAPEST—Spinning upside down around a tall silver rod here last weekend, an Australian fellow named Matty Shields stared down a panel of women judges, a mainly female crowd and decades of stereotypes. He hoped to become a gender pioneer: the world’s first official king of pole dancing.

    Mr. Shields, 26 years old, was one of seven men who were the first male competitors in the annual World Pole Dance finals. In a white vest festooned with feathers, ripped open to expose his chest, Mr. Shields wooed a skeptical crowd with moves like “the body flag,” in which he gripped the pole with his hands and stretched his body out horizontally.

    With its roots in strip clubs and bedrooms, pole dancing has been dismissed as a misogynistic playground in which women contort themselves for the viewing pleasure of men. But lately some women have fought to transcend titillation by rebranding it as fitness. Some have even petitioned the International Olympic Committee to make it an Olympic sport.

    But a lingering taboo surfaces when men seek to slide onto the pole, too.

    “When I tell people what I do, there is shock, ‘No! pole dancing is for women,” said the “poler” Mr. Shields, who is also a student nurse. “Pole dancing, he says, “can be masculine, too.”

    For men like Mr. Shields, wresting the pole from feminine hands has become a mission with resistance. At the suburban sports arena that hosted last weekend’s world championships, 39 women competed for singles and doubles titles, compared with the seven men who dared slide onto the pole.

    “People say it’s hard for women in a man’s world,” said Keem Martinez, a Frenchman who represented Britain in Budapest. “Well, it’s hard to be a man in this woman’s world.”

    Pole dancing involves moving around a steel or brass pole that is held by the legs or arms, with serious polers training as any gymnast would with push ups, weights and other means of increasing strength. A few years ago, published reports that British actor Jude Law had taken it up to get fit for a movie triggered a raft of media predictions that men would hit the poles. Men should have some advantages, instructors say: their greater upper body strength is ideal for moves like “twisted grip handspring” and “pencil pose.” For years, Western male polers have looked with envy to their Chinese brethren performing Chinese pole, a similar acrobatic act whose long history has kept it free of any association with eroticism.

    Classes across the United Kingdom began advertising for men, and competitions opened up for male groups. But men never quite climbed to the top. Pole Twisters Dance Studios in Cardiff, Wales, advertised introductory classes that were dropped when just three men showed up after two months of promotions.

    Late last month pole instructor Kay Penney led a fitness weekend at a holiday camp in southern England, bringing along 13 portable poles and a desire to break down boundaries. At her first class: 52 women and one man. “Men are worried about what their mates are going to say,” she said.

    Some male pole dancers are also worried about what women will say. In mixed classes, women are concerned that men are there just to ogle them. Thus, at his first class in Manchester, England, David Charlton talked loudly about his relationships—with men. “I was quite unreserved…to make it clear that I was not in there to check [the women] out,” he said.

    But some men say women are trying to ward them off. “Subconsciously, they don’t want men, because it is something of theirs they can hold onto,” said Timber Brown, a U.S. Marine’s son who quit the police academy to become a professional dancer in Las Vegas. Mr. Brown had wanted to “fly the flag for America” in Budapest but couldn’t raise the sponsorship money.

    At the gym where the world championships took place, few in the crowd had come to see the men’s division. “I’m here to see the women, this is a feminine sport,” said 38-year-old Hungarian Eszter Lorenco. Her husband, Zsolt Deer, 37, nodded enthusiastically: “Yes, the women.”

    As the guys began their routines, some men retired to the bar.

    “It’s a bit much for me,” said, Mate Molnar a 28-year-old computer-programmer from Budapest.

    On stage, Mr. Martinez, the Frenchman, appeared as a merman, his legs hidden by a sparkling fish tail that he ripped off to reveal a pair of shorts with sequins as scales while the 1990s pop song “This Must be Underwater Love” kicked in. Mr. Martinez moved around and up the poll with the athleticism of an accomplished gymnast, twisting, turning and pivoting with balletic grace.

    When up against it, Mr. Martinez and other male polers let their dancing do the talking.

    Last November, Mr. Shields stepped up to the pole at an all-woman’s contest in a pub in Botany Bay, Australia, and was greeted with gay slurs, he says.

    “I shut them up with the body flag,” he said, “before winning them over with the knee hang.” In Budapest, Mr. Shields—who believes he is the world’s only Aborigine pole dancer—wore feathers in his vest and hair and performed to modern aboriginal music, an attempt to “fuse” the aboriginal bird dance with pole dancing in a “very spiritual dance.”

    But he came up short. Russian Evgeny Greshilov poled first in men’s singles for an athletic routine set to “Hit the Road, Jack.” Alma Pirner, who helped set up the event, lauded his “extreme strength and gymnastic ability.”

    Mr. Shields didn’t leave empty-handed, however. He won bronze in the doubles contest with his partner, a woman who uses the stage name Michelle Shimmy. As fans gathered around to have their picture taken with Ms. Shimmy later, Mr. Shields hung back—but was happy to be invited into the shots by an excited male fan.

    “It’s been a fight for equality, and tonight we struck a blow,” he said as the camera flashed.

  85. schabadoo says:

    If you want to major in post colonial queer studies, by all means, go for it. However, scarse tax payer money should not be wasted on non-sense.

    Just remember, he’s right more often than not…

  86. jamil says:

    92, what, no ballots in Tagalog, Norwegian or Balochi ?

    I call racism.

  87. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (91) boo

    That’s right, even when it’s an opinion.

    That said, if someone wants to pay for the course, who am I to interfere?

    How was it anyway? Instructive?

  88. 3b says:

    #84 Juice: taht is my point. Those that excel in math should be given all the resources they need, but very few do. What else accounting? being outsourced. Marketing finance, management? I would rather some one well rounded, who can think, read, construct a sentence etc, and (that would include math majors too), who can be trained to do the job etc.

  89. Juice Box says:

    95: 3b – Job training? Bwaaaaa! Why train when you can import or offshore. If they allowed the folks in Mumbai to take the bar exam in any US State You would see an uproar in Congress to pass more protectionism for their trade.

  90. Mikeinwaiting says:

    “Is it a vital interest of the state to have more anthropologists? I don’t think so.”
    There is never an anthropologist around when you need one. All kidding aside he may have a point there. On the other hand we have no need of lawyers, if they stopped graduating bar candidates for 10 years we would still have enough. ( this from my nephew about to take the bar) In fact with the jobs we have available & the pool of talent what do we really need. Maybe put it all into free med school for those capable of being doctors.
    We need to drive down cost of medical treatment (10 ,000 a day turning 65 for like 19 years), no? With no cost medial school they could work for less & would have to, supply & demand.

  91. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Ok, here is my platform for the election put all available resources into infrastructure & free med school. The ones with the aptitude & drive can be doctors the rest can work with there hands.(PS no quotas or any other bull, male, female, white, black, or green with spots only the smartest get the free ride) The guys & gals operating heavy equipment may make more than the docs though. Hey it is better than what I have been hearing. These are 2 things we need.
    From a political perspective I get the union vote, also the old folks & boomers who are looking to drive down medical costs. Sounds like a winner.

  92. Prof. McDullard says:

    #98… your solution does not fit in a tagline yet… American public doesn’t want to hear more than five words. May be something like: docs and jocks?

    Of course, your post raises some very philosophical points. Were the invaders that destroyed libraries more “practical”? Are we something more than creatures that are looking for safety and comfort? Would we be so focused on digging the earth and operating heavy equipment that we don’t even dream of reaching for the stars? Would wealth and skills be the only things that we pass down from generation to generation? Has it been too long since I had my meds?

  93. What we don’t have are people who can think. Any major, any school that can turn out people capable of synthesizing concepts and original thought is on the right track.

  94. mikey (98)-

    My election platform is that we start raining thermobarics on Iran.

    I win.

  95. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Prof Mc D First we have to pass down the wealth & skill then we can think about the stars. Glad you are shooting high but in my book right now it is about survival as a nation & a people not living on gov hand outs.

    Clot 101 I am on board for that.

  96. Mikeinwaiting says:

    PS Prof. Mc D First you have to have comfort & safety. Go ask the millions of unemployed about that. I am aware that those considered poor in the USA have a car , AC & a couple of TVs. This is not sustainable if we do not do something about health-care cost & our infrastructure (jobs) it will get real ugly. Give it 20 years & at this rate the stars will be the last thing we are reaching for.

  97. Confused in NJ says:

    If you want to live longer, learn to separate the snake oil from beneficial medicine:

    ..Prostate testing’s dark side: Men who were harmed
    By MARILYNN MARCHIONE – AP Chief Medical Writer | AP – 6 hrs …In this …

    Terry Dyroff’s PSA blood test led to a prostate biopsy that didn’t find cancer but gave him a life-threatening infection.

    In the emergency room several days later, “I didn’t sit, I just laid on the floor, I felt so bad,” said Dyroff, 65, a retired professor from Silver Spring, Md. “I honestly thought I might be dying.”

    Donald Weaver was a healthy 74-year-old Kansas farmer until doctors went looking for prostate cancer. A PSA test led to a biopsy and surgery, then a heart attack, organ failure and a coma. His grief-stricken wife took him off life support.

    “He died of unnecessary preventive medicine,” said his nephew, Dr. Jay Siwek, vice chairman of family medicine at Georgetown University. “Blood tests can kill you.”

    Since Friday, when a task force of independent scientists said routine PSA testing does more harm than good, urologists who make a living treating prostate cancer have rushed to defend the test, as have patients who believe it saved their lives.

    Less visible are men who have been harmed by testing, as Dyroff and Weaver were. The harm is not so much from the test itself but from everything it triggers — biopsies that usually are false alarms, and treatments that leave many men incontinent or impotent for cancers that in most cases were not a threat.

    Once a PSA test suggests a problem, many men can’t live with the worry that they might have cancer. And once cancer is found, most men feel they have to treat it, usually at the urging of their urologist.

    “There are many men who have had serious consequences from treatment. Those stories don’t get told and they are not uncommon,” said Dr. Len Lichtenfeld, deputy chief medical officer of the American Cancer Society, which thinks the task force reached “an appropriate conclusion” about the PSA test.

    “I’m not going to criticize men who believe that their lives have been saved by this test,” because that’s what doctors have told them, Lichtenfeld said. “If you’re sitting there and you wet your pants three times a day, you’ve got to believe it’s worth it, that it saved your life.”

    Many men who agree to a PSA test do not understand what it is. Some common misconceptions:

    — It shows cancer. In fact, PSA is just a measure of inflammation, and it can be elevated for many reasons besides cancer: normal enlargement of the prostate with age, an infection, even recent sex, a strenuous bike ride or horseback riding.

    — It’s been proven to save lives. Only two large, well-done studies have looked at this, the task force says. The American study found annual screening did not lower the chances of dying of prostate cancer. However, cancer fear is so great, and belief in the value of screening so ingrained, that half the men assigned to the group not offered PSA tests got one anyway. That made comparisons to the group given annual screening difficult. For that reason, some doctors don’t believe the study’s conclusion.

    The other study, conducted in Europe, found a small benefit for certain age groups screened every two to seven years — not annually. However, one Swedish center had such rosy results that scientists think it may have biased the whole study. If that center is excluded, no benefit from the PSA test is seen.

    — The task force’s stance goes against past advice. Routine PSA testing has been supported by some advocacy groups and by urologists, the doctors who do the tests and treatments. But it has not been pushed by major scientific groups, the American Cancer Society or the government.

    — It finds cancer early so you’re more likely to survive. About 90 percent of prostate cancers found through screening are early-stage. Most will grow so slowly they will never threaten a man’s life, but there’s no good way to tell which ones will. Research suggests that tumors causing symptoms are more likely to warrant treatment than those that are not. Also, finding aggressive prostate tumors early may not affect how lethal they prove to be; the PSA test may just let men learn of them sooner than they otherwise would.

    The task force said that in the European study, the rate of overdiagnosis from PSA screening — finding cancers that do not need to be treated — was estimated to be as high as 50 percent. Based on that study, 1,410 men would have to be screened, and 48 patients would have to be treated, just to save one life from prostate cancer.

    Yet the public perception is that if PSA testing finds a cancer early, it must be good.

    “Most people tend to think ‘if it may help, I’m all for it.’ But we don’t know if it will help,” said Siwek, the Georgetown doctor whose uncle died.

    Once a PSA test suggests a problem, “it’s hard to stop the conveyor belt or the cascade effect” that leads to more testing and treatment, said Siwek, who also is editor of the journal American Family Physician. “The inclination is, ‘I’ve got to do something about it.'”

    Dyroff, the retired professor, agreed to a biopsy after a blip in his PSA. Days later, he ran a high fever, felt weak and faint, and spent three days in the hospital fighting a bloodstream infection. A week later he relapsed and required a combination of intravenous antibiotics to finally recover.

    A recent Johns Hopkins University study found surprisingly high rates of hospitalization after prostate biopsies and a 12-fold greater risk of death in those who develop infections.

    Tony Masraff, a Houston restaurant owner, reluctantly agreed to a biopsy and then was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 1999. His urologist pushed surgery and balked when Masraff asked about other options such as radiation. After some research, Masraff decided just to monitor his tumor, and has seen his PSA rise very slowly over more than a decade.

    Now 74, he hasn’t had treatment “and I never will,” he said. “I’m not concerned because I don’t want the debilitative effects — I don’t want to wear a diaper, and I like women.”

    “There’s a huge number of people that are being operated on that don’t need treatment,” said Masraff, who formed a foundation for research into less invasive options.

    The need to find a better screening tool is the real message from the task force, said Dr. Christopher Logothetis, prostate cancer research chief at the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston. It may even be that there are better ways to use the PSA — employing it as a baseline test and tracking its rise over time — that might prove better than annual testing.

    “If the debate gets reduced to ‘there’s a right and a wrong,’ we will lose what we are being told here, which is to search for the path forward,” he said.

    The cancer society’s Lichtenfeld agreed. “Maybe it’s time to listen to evidence instead of hope,” he wrote in his blog.

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