One one hand, it’s not getting any worse, on the other, it’s not getting any better

From NJBiz:

N.J. home sales flat as U.S. data show improvement

Sales of new single-family homes in September were up 5.7 percent from August, but 0.9 percent lower than September 2010 sales, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In New Jersey, though, sales of new homes have remained pretty much unchanged.

“The housing market has been moving sideways since May,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of East Brunswick-based Otteau Valuation Group, which provides information on real estate trends. “The bottom was reached in New Jersey in May. Since then, there has no longer been a decline in sales, but we haven’t seen any improvement either.”

Otteau cited a decline in consumer optimism and slow job creation as significant factors in home sales.

“Housing demand is, at the root level, driven by job creation,” he said. “You have to be working and have an income if you want to make that very expensive purchase.”

“On the one hand, it’s positive news that New Jersey has hit the low point,” Otteau said. “On the other hand, we have not seen any improvement or recovery yet. We expect this slowdown will continue into next year.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

160 Responses to One one hand, it’s not getting any worse, on the other, it’s not getting any better

  1. grim says:

    Three handed economist can never be wrong?

  2. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  3. “One one hand, it’s not getting any worse, on the other, it’s not getting any better.”

    Isn’t this the definition of a zombie?

  4. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (3) meat

    Or the definition of dead.

  5. Fabius Maximus says:

    As an Xer, I think I’ll put on my black Jobs poloneck and meditate in the zen of my coolness.
    http://www.cnn.com/2011/10/26/living/gen-x-satisfied/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

  6. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Haha very true Otteau, the dead bloated corpse is not dying anymore than it already has when it stopped breathing in 2009. Perhaps i’ll caveat that statement with a completely opposite counter balancing hedge to ensure that at least one of my statements turn out to be true over the next six months.

  7. Neanderthal Economist says:

    As a credible expert economist in the field of real estate, im here to tell you that the bottom is in, and the housing recovery is underway. On the other hand, it may not be.

  8. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Yes. On the other hand, nope.

  9. Extinction before recovery.

  10. Shore Guy says:

    Oh, happy day.

  11. Shore Guy says:

    Was it Harry Truman who wanted a one-handed economist?

  12. funnelcloud says:

    Jeffery Otteau is a ying yang, He declares “a bottom has arrived”, yea until tomorrows headlines

  13. Confused in NJ says:

    If anyone is replacing a 4040 solenoid valve on their central humidifier & finds that it comes with a left hand bracket & your unit wants a right hand bracket, simply loosen the solenoid nut and rotate bracket 180 degrees. Your HVAC expert probably doesn’t know this and will leave the new valve unmounted on top of you unit.

  14. JJ says:

    housing according to realtors has a 100% correlation to jobs. but really it is the belief that homes will apprectiate on a regular basis that drives the decision. buy now or be priced out forever.

    so stock market is set to open up at DOW 12k, funny a few weeks ago at bottom so many retirees and older people were panicing and getting out of stocks. they do it time and time again. once you are retired or even over 50 and working. it is hard to make up for those mistakes.

  15. JJ says:

    Your old Gov John Corzine should run for President of Greece. His bonds at 70 cents on the dollar is holding up better than Greek bonds at 50 cents on a dollar.

    MF GLOBAL HLDGS
    MF 6.25 08/08/2016 SR UNSECURED 6.250000 DTD 20110808 MTY 20160808
    Price $70.000 Yield 15.340

  16. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Market primed for a pop. At least for today.

    In other news, I topped off my personal SPR for the first time before oil prices work in. Never been at capacity before. If OWS tried to occupy the brig, and I run out of ammo, we have plenty of bug out juice.

    Truthfully, it’s more for price spikes and storms but the nice warm feeling you get from knowing that you can bug out also helps.

  17. Juice Box says:

    Jj m f global and many other players in the us went long euro debt. Now we have a full court press, for the ECB printing press.

  18. grim says:

    CNBC 2011 State Millionaires List – NJ (The Garden Unicorn State) ranks number 3 with 7.19% of households being millionaires. (Maryland and Hawaii are numbers 1 and 2 respectively)

    Maybe it’s just you who can’t afford to live here?

    Although I did see a unicorn on the ferry yesterday, mumbling something to himself about the suburbs turning to shit.

  19. 3B says:

    #14 Amazing how the market will pop in the so called European fix. Looks to me like a big band-said,a nd nothing more. And the Europeans have to go around the world with a begging bowl looking for money. Please sir more!!!

  20. nj escapee says:

    grim, I saw the writing on the wall back in 2000 that NJ was for millionaires and unicorns with a high demand for illegals to serve them.

  21. nj escapee says:

    10 Arrested in $1 Billion L.I.R.R. Disability Scheme
    Ten people, including a doctor and a former union president, were arrested early Thursday and charged in a major fraud scheme in which hundreds of Long Island Rail Road workers made false disability pension claims costing a federal agency an estimated $1 billion, according to people briefed on the matter. Another doctor charged in the case was being sought, the people said.

    Most of the people — those charged in the case include seven former railroad workers accused of making false pension claims, the two doctors and a former federal railroad pension agency employee who helped the workers file the claims — were taken into custody in the early morning hours at their homes by F.B.I. agents and state investigators, the people said.
    http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/27/ten-arrested-in-1-billion-l-i-r-r-disability-scheme/?hp

  22. JJ says:

    S&P Futures are up 33+ pts with Dow Futures up 251 pts

  23. 3B says:

    #18 grim:Although I did see a unicorn on the ferry yesterday, mumbling something to himself about the suburbs turning to shit.

    You may, but a lot of formerly nice areas, are stating to get a very urban gritty feel. Run down too, and rough around the edges. You see it far more if you are out running or walking.

  24. gary says:

    “The bottom was reached in New Jersey in May.”

    Four years in a row he’s declared this now. Any questions?

  25. grim says:

    21 – I bet we don’t see claw backs

  26. Juice Box says:

    Wait a minute if the Greeks get a haircut then so do the Paddys!

    GREECE will get €100bn shaved off its debts under new proposals put forward at a critical EU summit in Brussels last night.

    But banks were locked in disagreements with EU chiefs over the scale of the losses and how they would be covered.

    Banks that lent money to Greece will have to pick up the tab, but taxpayers across Europe may have to cover the losses, as happened in Ireland.

    Last night’s proposal will leave the door open for demands that Ireland get a cut in its €160bn debt mountain.

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [25] grim

    I’ve done clawbacks, and you can’t believe the level of outrage on the part of those who enjoyed ill-gotten gains when you tell them they have to give it back.

    Talk about entitlement.

    And it’s just the tip of the iceberg. Problem is, as the creditors are going after money they used to forego before, we are seeing all those who are being foreclosed/clawed back/garnisheed/etc. running to their elected hacks and demanding to be bailed out. In the past, the politicians would ignore the leeches, but now it is too big a voting bloc to ignore.

    We’ve reached the tipping point.

  28. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [26] juice

    The PIIGS have returned to the trough. It’s GM and Chrysler on a global scale.

  29. Confused in NJ says:

    The new EU proposal is a Big Dog chasing it’s own Tail. Sad to see that Europe has adopted Ben’s Psycho-Babble approach to life.

  30. 3B says:

    #26 I have a family member coming tomorrow. I will tell him he should be telling the people to riot in Dublin, and burn some buildings down etc. If you re going to do for one, you have to do for all.

  31. Juice Box says:

    Comrade – it is all about firing up the printing press. Bank of Italy governor Mario Draghi replaces Jean-Claude Trichet as head of the ECB on November 1. Draghi has already said that the ECB will continue to buy sovereign government paper. It remains to be seen if he sterilizes the purchases by selling other ECB securities, or monetizes the paper by printing new money. My bet is he prints after all he is a former managing director of Goldman Sachs. LOL!

  32. 3B says:

    #31 Juice: On another topic GDP 3rd quarter up 2.5% does this stop the bearded one from QE3?

  33. JJ says:

    If it makes you feel better, I implemented TBTF EU 2011 Trading Strategy to mirror my TBTF USA 2009 Trading Strategy. Except not as aggressive. I bought 100K worth of bank bonds with exposure to Europe mainly BOA, Countrywide, Banco Standander and a few others during last three weeks. All at an yield between 9-11% and most were investment grade.

    The buying opportunity ended at 9:30am this morning when market opened up big. Even GMAC yields show from 9% t0 7% in just one week. Countrywide yields from 11.5% to 7.% in just two weeks.

    Also bought Dave and Busters, Avaya, AMR and Kodak for sky high yields but small postions. back when the AMR and Kodak BK rumours were rampant.

    The ETF JNK which is a proxy for junk bonds has moved like a rocket last five days. So much so that this morning I saw some inventory sitting up there from last night not yet repriced from europe that I grabbed for around 82 that 15 minutes lasted were re-listed at 87.

    Medco, NYX and Boeing old school names have moved a ton since Monday. Crazy stuff.

    The buying fun is over till the next crisis. But I think we will have a fun end of year!! Bull market baby. This move up will be good for NYC and Hampton real estate. Big trickle down effect, but far out in NJ or PA no effect. The people in hicks were most likely selling in a panic in early October or sitting still and are now even. Only the folks agressively adding stock and bond positons last few weeks have fat cash.

    Confused in NJ says:
    October 27, 2011 at 9:50 am

    The new EU proposal is a Big Dog chasing it’s own Tail. Sad to see that Europe has adopted Ben’s Psycho-Babble approach to life.

  34. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    A little light reading on international tax policy

    http://waysandmeans.house.gov/taxreform/

  35. funnelcloud says:

    3B #30
    Forget about Greece or Dublin we’re going to have riots going on in the US. Did you see Bloomburg sent out a proactive warning to the wall street protesters that if they riot with the police, He plans on filing lawsuits against those that are arrested. He did that same s*^t with the transit union and they caved in, Wonder if his threats will work with this time.

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [31] juice

    That is why I wish I had more shiny.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    The spouse’s company beats estimates. Waiting for blackout to lift.

  38. Juice Box says:

    re # 30- 3B There is a presidential election today in Ireland. Quite a cast of characters running for the job.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ireland/8850943/Ireland-presidential-election-runners-and-riders.html

  39. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Bloomberg reporting that Corzine may have to sell MF Global to GS.

    How’s that for irony?

    Seriously, has Corzine truly succeeded at anything? He was fired from Goldman, fired as governor, and now he is running MFG into the ground.

  40. 3B says:

    #38 Juice: I know, and for a position that is only ceremonial; results will be Saturday, as they have that whole votes transfer system over there.

  41. Juice Box says:

    re #32- 3B – re: 3rd quarter up 2.5% What did Greenspan say about China’s GDP projections?

    More “fake it till you make it” economics. What is the use of estimates of GDP when the actual values are so far off? We should be approaching 15 trillion GDP by now if you think of it in terms of the output gap which means we the middle class are only getting poorer by the day.

    Bernake has his hands tied somewhat on the TBTFs with direct capital injections now but I am pretty sure he is insane enough to print and swap till the cows come home dead or alive.

  42. 3B says:

    #39 Actually he was not fired from GS, but was forced out, perhaps sometime at a GTG, I can got into details as to why. Also he bought the firm back from a very rough period in the early 90’s very internal thing, as that is how GS was when it was a partnership; private and quiet.

  43. 3B says:

    #41 Juice: Agreed.

  44. Juice Box says:

    re # 39- Nom got $50 bucks that says Lloyd hangs
    up the phone whenever Corzine calls.

  45. Juice Box says:

    Nom – it looks like Corzine did go all in looks like somebody will be flying coach from now on.

    “Corzine, whose holdings individually and through a trust total 441,960 shares priced at $1.70 each as of yesterday, declined to be interviewed, said Diana DeSocio, an MF Global spokeswoman.”

  46. The Original NJ Expat says:

    grim (from yesterday) – Who can afford to buy in Hoboken or JC without the MID? You know what a 3br in the “city” goes for these days?

    At some combination of suburban tax rates, decaying suburban home values and services, and escalating energy costs there will be a point where many can’t afford not to size down and move closer to where the jobs are. For many families right now, just switching from two cars to zero cars would put them back into the black on a monthly basis.

  47. california dreaming says:

    Euro= Buy the rumour and sell the fact
    Same as these Southern California toast cities:
    Carmel Valley 92130 delusions -little boxes made of ticky-tacky

    Coronado Crushin’

    La Joe la’s House of Pain

    http://www.caliscreaming.com

  48. prtraders2000 says:

    Clawback talk is so 2008. Along with moral hazard.

    We’re all suffering from capitulation talk fatigue. Time to move on.

  49. Young Buck says:

    For your viewing pleasure, I submit 1370 Lower Road, Elizabeth, NJ.

    http://new.gsmls.com/publicsite/propsearch.do?method=moredetails&sysid=2896126

    Lovely paneling throughout. Beautiful 20 year old carpet in every bedroom, with retro 1970s green carpet in the livingroom to top if off.

    You may be wondering to yourself, just where within Elizabeth is this gem located? Nestled in a deadly quiet street, it is directly across from Evergreen Cemetery, with acres of beautiful green pastures and tombstones as far as the eye can see. One block to the left is wonderful Hillside, NJ. And only 2 (albeit long) blocks to the right is Newark, with convenient access to Weequahic Park and golf course!

    http://maps.google.com/maps?q=1370+2+LOWER+RD,+elizabeth,+nj&hl=en&gs_upl=5875l5875l0l6531l1l1l0l0l0l0l140l140l0.1l1l0&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x89c252c9e98f972f:0x84a1eccd8278f97d,1370+Lower+Rd,+Elizabeth,+NJ+07208&gl=us&ei=B2SpTurqCerw0gGPt6WYDg&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CBQQ8gEwAA

    Now you must be anxious to know the price. Everything this house has to offer can be yours for the low price of $299,000! Oh, and let’s not forget the taxes. Not to be outdone by the Land of Unicorns, taxes are a very respectable: $13,469.46 / $14,510.14. And although unicorns are not known to travel this far south, there is in fact a well known ancient unicorn burial ground on the Evergreen Cemetery/Weequahic Park border that draws hundreds, if not thousands, of tourists every year.

    Hurry! This house will not last!

  50. JJ says:

    If I was a realtor I would say this is a home you will want to die in and can live in it forever, in fact I would throw in a plot and claim I will throw you over fence and into cemetary when you die so you can enjoy the house forever.

  51. Anon E. Moose says:

    Expat [46];

    For many families right now, just switching from two cars to zero cars would put them back into the black on a monthly basis.

    My daily commuter is a ’99 Saturn that was my wife’s first car out of college. The current family car is a ’07 mini-ute. Both paid for. (Aside — the mini-ute was bought with a cashier’s check. You should have seen the sales-babe’s head swim when she couldn’t use the 4-box sales sheet to juggle price, downpayment, monthly payment, trade-in value to finagle the deal. No trade-in, no financing; just like a used house, only one knob to turn. )

    Anyway, the remote key on the mini-ute is a dealer-only item, so I’m getting a new key cut and the service manager is telling me how my 4-yo, 55k mi. car is due to be traded in for a new one. I don’t think its even broken in yet. Besides, car payments suck balls in addition to money. When I have to put a few hundred of maintenance money into the train car once a year or so, I think about how many months of car payments that’s avoiding, and suck it up. If some faux-riche deadbeat driving a leased Toyot– uh, Lexus — wants to look down of me for it, I’ll enjoy seeing them living under a bridge.

  52. grim says:

    46 – Yes yes, I agree about the push away from suburbia towards some kind of smart urbanism.

    However, I also believe that the entire NYC metro area constitutes, “the city”.

    I don’t consider those leafy Bergen County “suburbs” to be part of the ex-urban geography that will get slammed. Because, really, we joke about proximity to NYC, but realize that Bergen County really is 5 miles from the center of the known universe.

    Slam away, but I don’t believe the difference between JC/Hoboken and the near-city suburbs to be as great as some might believe.

  53. Anon E. Moose says:

    Go big or go home.

    I like Nowitski’s packing advice to the Rangers… “One suit. One shirt. One tie.” Brass.

  54. Juice Box says:

    re # 46 – “You know what a 3br in the “city” goes for these days?”

    Kids are just going to have to share a room.

  55. 3B says:

    This house just recently closed in the land of Unicorns at 281K which is around late 99, early 2000 pricing. Looks like it has not been touched since it was built in 9154, although it looks to have been maintained to a degree.> taxes on this gem are just a tad under 12K , with an assessment of 465K!!!!

    http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_Jersey/River_Edge/sold/20214700-24-Richard-Ct-River-Edge-NJ-07661

  56. JJ says:

    How could anyone spend a few hundred dollars to maintain a 99 saturn is beyond me. A four year old girl with a fischer price tool kit could fix that car herself.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    October 27, 2011 at 10:52 am

  57. 3B says:

    For those who like the craftsman Bungalow thing the below listing might be interesting. One one of the best streets in town. Listed at 315K, need work, but of course!!! Check out the picture of the bathroom. Taxes at $11, 700,assessed at 465K

  58. 3B says:

    #52 That belief would scare many of the residents in those leafy Bergen Co towns.

    However, I also believe that the entire NYC metro area constitutes, “the city

  59. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #52 grim –However, I also believe that the entire NYC metro area constitutes, “the city”.

    Agreed. Same here in Boston. Chestnut Hill, Newton, Brookline, Weston and the other train blue-ribbony towns are really part of the city and a great place to live if you can afford it. OTOH, there is bound to be some boomer, empty-nester flight and not much of a move-up market anymore. In fact the move-up market in the nicer towns is getting triple-smacked through flat (at best) appreciation, rising taxes, and the real killer – demographics. Another advantage the cities proper have, you can have a well run building but with 20% of the owners underwater, maybe even 5% vacant but it doesn’t show it in appearance, vandalism, or crime rate like a suburban community with the same numbers.

  60. gary says:

    In fact the move-up market in the nicer towns is getting triple-smacked through flat (at best) appreciation, rising taxes, and the real killer – demographics.

    Does Graydon and Ellery’s Mummy and Daddy know about this?

  61. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [57];

    You probably do your own dental surgery as well, no?

  62. Juice Box says:

    re: Slam away, but I don’t believe the difference between JC/Hoboken and the near-city suburbs to be as great as some might believe.

    Grim it’s actually 20 miles from the center of Bergen County to 42nd street. Might as well be 80 miles since 80 minutes is your commute time on a good day.

    There is a world of difference from JC/Hoboken from the near-city suburbs areas of Bergen, Brig or even gasp Montclair. Lifestyle is the main point. We get home earlier, go to gym, take kids to park, go out to a restaurants for dinner several times a week, walk to the supermarket and stores all the while the suburban folks are stuck eating fumes in traffic, and when they get home about 1.5 hours after we do they still need to take the car everywhere.

    We know our neighbors and we also entertain allot more than anyone in the burbs I know. The burbs in my opinion suck, I rode the damm bus for years and will never do it again. I took the train for years and will never do it again. I will die first before I spend 2 hours in a car commuting to work, or an hour or more on the BUS sitting next to passed out drunks or people that stare at you. I cannot tell you how many times I was ready to kill someone waiting for the damm bus to get through the tunnel because of an accident. It’s a death trap a suicide rap, who they heck needs a house out in Hackensack? Is that all you get for your money?

  63. The Original NJ Expat says:

    #51 Moose, cars – Yep, we’re of a like mind. Although we did just lease a 2nd car because the numbers worked out great, but other than that we’ve always been cash on the barrel head new car customers. It certainly does put the salesman at a distinct disadvantage. In fact I’ve never even entered a new car dealership without the available funds and a hard price that I would buy a specific vehicle for on that day. Nowadays it’s even simpler, I even know the VIN of the exact car I want before I walk in. As for frequency, we buy a new car every 9 or 10 years whether we need one or not. Our drivers are a 2002 and a 2011 and we’ve gotten by with just one car for the last 9 years until we leased the new one.

  64. gary says:

    In my neighborhood, every house that gets sold becomes occupied by those of Asian Indian or Middle Eastern origin. It’s just an observation… don’t anyone get their panties in a bunch… I’m just making a statement. I suppose all those of Europian origin got priced out forever.

  65. 3B says:

    #64 Juice: Well put, and I agree. What I find ironic is that for someone like me who was born and raised in NYC, is that the suburbs that I left for over 20 years ago, is starting to look like the same NYC I left,a nd starting to get the same urban woes. Those of us who grew up in NYC, smile, and find it kind of ironic as I said. Those who grew up in the “burbs”, and still live there are terrified. Bergen Co today is like moving up on the 4, 5, or 6 IRT lines year ago.

    For those who stayed in the better areas in the boro’s property taxes run between 2k and 5K a year, grant it there are school issues which is a drawback. The same people who have fled to the suburbs to get away from the the ills of urban life, are in many cases finding the same ills they left, only they are now paying 10k or more a year in property taxes, plus in many cases higher commuting taxes.

    People that are still moving from NYC to the “burb’s are a Realtor’sdream, because in many cases they do not have a clue, and still have a romanticized 1950’s view of the suburbs. They believe they are moving to Mayberyy only to find in many cases the same thing they left; only they are paying more for it.

  66. gary says:

    3b [67],

    You mean Paramus isn’t Pleasantville?

  67. JJ says:

    Actually it is one of the perks of not growing up rich and being a poor student. Dad had me and my brother fixing his car back when I was 11. Best was I recall when I was 12 Dads car was acting up and he came home with an alternator in box and said he has to be back on road in one hour, change the alternator, put on the snow tires. change the oil and wash it and vacum it. Neighbors though we were nuts. Worse job was the damm 71 Buick Estate Wagon with dual exhaust and like 25 holes in exhaust system, I arc welded like a mother for two hours on that thing.

    The guys at the dealerships are really good mechanics with proper training, tools and high tech equipment. The guys at the local service station are hacks. My two years of auto mechanics in HS and course in Welding and Blue Printing is more training than those guys.

    Today very few men are men. My father in law once blew the engine on his way home from work, got up at five am pulled it out of car, rebuilt engine reinstalled it and made it to work on time. Today you see a couple sitting in a car on side of road waiting for a jump. Husband does not even know how to use a jumper cable.

    Even unemployed people are uppidity today. I recall when I was about to sell my Camry I had a broken seat belt, the door handle was cracked, a tail light was out and battery was shot. I go get the parts and I am out on street in front of house for like four hours fixen this junk so I can put car in paper and put for sale sign on it. Unemployed nieghbor and two lazy other neghbors are looking at me like I am nuts.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    October 27, 2011 at 11:27 am
    JJ [57];

    You probably do your own dental surgery as well, no?

  68. Anyone even vaguely associated with the gubmint, FedCo or banksters should be put to death. The only way to fix this thing right is to execute enough of the perps to scare the crap out of everyone else. We need a good 200 year stretch where the idea of financial engineering should be accompanied by the mental image of a guillotine.

  69. box (45)-

    I’d like to see Corzine flying off the roof of Hudson Tea.

  70. 3B says:

    #68 gary: You nailed it.

  71. Juice Box says:

    “same thing they left” – Yeah we left the Bronx in the 1970s to escape high crime and lots of heroin addicts, as well as the integrated schools. Don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise but it was also white flight. Parents did not want to see their daughter bring home Jose or Tupac for dinner. The kids in the neighborhood were getting into trouble, there was little incentive to stay in our little corner of the world with 4 kids in a 2 br apt. So we picked up and bought a home in Bergen County that was about 2x income, parents put down 50% so it was really only 1x income. Taxes low as can be imagined, safe streets kids could pay all day outside, good schools, lots of young families. That place no longer exists, kids cannot play outside all day unsupervised anymore, schools aren’t as good, house cost sometime 5-8x income, taxes are 600% higher. Is that all you get for your money?

  72. 3B says:

    I thought some one woudl have liked that Bungalow listing I posted; don’t se many of those around.

  73. 3B says:

    #73 Exactly. But for many the dream and the myth dies hard, and they are in total denial.

  74. JJ says:

    You are making things up. Let me give you some cold hard facts.

    Todays paper gives numbers for Nassau County which is about same price as Bergan County, maybe more.

    Mediam monthly housing cost $2,094
    mediam cost for owners with mortgages $3,065
    Median cost owners without mortgages $1,000
    Median cost for rent $1,420

    Average income 94K and 26% of folks make over 150K a year.

    Companre that to Hoboben, NYC prices and rents surburbs are a bargain.

    Juice Box says:
    October 27, 2011 at 11:55 am
    “same thing they left” – Yeah we left the Bronx in the 1970s to escape high crime and lots of heroin addicts, as well as the integrated schools. Don’t let anyone else tell you otherwise but it was also white flight. Parents did not want to see their daughter bring home Jose or Tupac for dinner. The kids in the neighborhood were getting into trouble, there was little incentive to stay in our little corner of the world with 4 kids in a 2 br apt. So we picked up and bought a home in Bergen County that was about 2x income, parents put down 50% so it was really only 1x income. Taxes low as can be imagined, safe streets kids could pay all day outside, good schools, lots of young families. That place no longer exists, kids cannot play outside all day unsupervised anymore, schools aren’t as good, house cost sometime 5-8x income, taxes are 600% higher. Is that all you get for your money?

  75. Juice Box says:

    JJ – PITI on a Bergen County house worth 480k with 400k loan and 12k in taxes is $3,594.93 that is your buy in today to turn the key on a 70 year old a 3br crapshack in the lower half of Bergen. Add in another 1k for a month for 2 cars and maintenance to go with it and you are at $4,500 a month without even buying groceries.

  76. Cost of living will be a lot easier after the next civil war.

  77. Barbara says:

    Too much love is worse than none at all….

  78. Barbara says:

    Spike Lee b
    Put that obscure and unPC diddy on his Summer Of Sam soundtrack. Say what you will about Spike, he knows his pop music cultural markers and shows great taste on his sound tracks.

  79. gary says:

    Juice Box,

    It’s amazing how the wannabe haughty types come to that realization about 60 days after they close on the house. They then discover things like a leaky roof or a busted hot water heater as they scurry to move money into the checking account.

  80. 3B says:

    #77 Juice: You can get most houses today in lower Bergen Co town for far, far less than 480K; you are right of course on the taxes The towns where you will pay a premium today, are the towns that do not have a lot of multi-family rentals.

  81. chicagofinance says:

    There Went Meat says:
    October 27, 2011 at 11:49 am
    box (45)-
    I’d like to see Corzine flying off the roof of Hudson Tea.

    he moved here…..
    http://www.starwoodhotels.com/preferredguest/property/rooms/index.html?propertyID=1785

  82. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Companre that to Hoboben, NYC prices and rents surburbs are a bargain.

    Exactly right. Poor people get out to the suburbs where your new cheap home is waiting for you. While this is going on, watch in which direction the affluent start moving.

  83. chicagofinance says:

    That is the sound of shorts getting squeezed…..

  84. Confused in NJ says:

    The Candle always glows brightest before it goes out.

  85. JJ says:

    The average person is not buying a house today for first time. I have been looking at 2005-2006 college graduate resumes of late and even the so so ones are asking for 90K base plus bonus. Some still live at home. The late 20 couples about to get marred are making 240K combined. Even your 480 house is just 2x income. I watch Jersey Shore and the real housewives of NJ, you guys are loaded out there. 480K is what you get for a guest appearance at a mall.

    Juice Box says:
    October 27, 2011 at 12:13 pm
    JJ – PITI on a Bergen County house worth 480k with 400k loan and 12k in taxes is $3,594.93 that is your buy in today to turn the key on a 70 year old a 3br crapshack in the lower half of Bergen. Add in another 1k for a month for 2 cars and maintenance to go with it and you are at $4,500 a month without even buying groceries.

  86. JJ says:

    ChiFi, before I get burnt. I have been buying Bank of America bonds last two weeks. Yields have dropped like a brick since Monday. However this one Bank of America bonds is still above 9%. What is the catch?

    Thanks

    NB CAP TR IV CAP SECS 8.25000% 04/15/2027
    CUSIP 62874HAA3
    NB CAP TR IV CAP SECS 8.25000% 04/15/2027
    Price (Ask) 93.500
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 9.038%

  87. 3B says:

    #89 You really do live in a different universe. I do not know any late 20’something couples out buying houses, today in the suburbs.. In fact I do not know all that many that are getting married. And the ones I Do know ain’t making 240K combined, and many of them are carrying massive student loans. Oh and news flash, lots of these late 20 somethings have no desire to live in the suburbs. Also in 2006 the median age of the first time home buyer was 32, and the median salary was 57K. I would reasonably assume that those numbers have not gotten better since then, and probably worse.

    Every now and then you have some insight, but you always mess it up with drivel like your post at #89.

  88. 3b (91)-

    Let him continue with his Don Draper pipedream. He will be dispatched forthwith by a mob with pitchforks.

  89. afed says:

    Hi, anyone have any knowledge of what mortgage company would be good to contact in NJ for a Homepath renovation mortgage? I’m a first time homebuyer interested in a fannie mae property. Any suggestions are welcome.
    Thanks in advance.

  90. JC says:

    3b:

    #56: Some reader of the Retro Renovations blog would KILL to have that house.

    #58: =Drool= Loves me some Craftsman bungalow, but it’s clear that a whole series of owners had no idea what they had. That house needs about $100K of work just to turn it back into what it should be.

  91. make money says:

    Was going to pick up Tesla model S, however, I think I just found the perfect car. You can drive one of these babies for next 5 years and you’re guaranteed that its value will double. I bet BC is driving this baby somewhere and thats why he doesn’t visit us anymore.

    http://www.nextconceptcars.com/custom-cars/porsche-911-covered-in-gold/

  92. nj escapee says:

    Was this uday or qusay’s car?

  93. 3B says:

    #94 JC: Did you check out the bathroom?

  94. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [92] meat,

    No, he will dazzle them with his menial upbringing, and win them over with his obvious masculinity and knowledge of all things, delivered to the crowd in perfect spanish, chinese, and esperanto. Then, he will regale them with his plans for remaking Wall Street, and convince them all to go home, take a bath, and come back as trading interns.

    For he is THE MOST INTERESTING MAN IN THE WORLD.

  95. JJ says:

    I forgot I only count non-slackards. There are plenty of lazy kids in my town who went to community college, then a local four year school on loans who take some stupid job in the surburbs who make peanuts.

    I am assuming you went to a good school, got a real job at a blue chip firm, white shoe consulting firm or big four. Then I assume you got some good experience at work, networked and started in on certifications and Graduate Degrees. After all that work of course you marry someone similar. That who the first time home buyer from 26-32 should be.

    I graduated school and partied my butt off and did not save and enjoyed life to fullest until I was 34. I hardly considered my self a first time home buyer. Or a person who could get married. Once I decided to work and get married and give up my slackard day of course my salary shot up.

    When I was single my gramercy park apt which I got rent stablized through some wheeling and dealing had $750 a month rent in 1998 and I had other apt subleted for $200 a month profit and I walked to work. Living in a one bedroom in NYC cost me net $550 a month plus my classic car insurance was $19 a year and I had free parking and my hampton share was $600 . Kids today don’t wheel and deal they whine. 57K is a good amount of money. I could easily get buy on 57K. Heck if I had free medical I could get by on 12k a year.

    3B says:
    October 27, 2011 at 2:33 pm

    #89 You really do live in a different universe. I do not know any late 20′something couples out buying houses, today in the suburbs.. In fact I do not know all that many that are getting married. And the ones I Do know ain’t making 240K combined, and many of them are carrying massive student loans. Oh and news flash, lots of these late 20 somethings have no desire to live in the suburbs. Also in 2006 the median age of the first time home buyer was 32, and the median salary was 57K. I would reasonably assume that those numbers have not gotten better since then, and probably worse.

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [96] escapee

    Something tells me that we will see more cars like that being driven into Monaco or Geneva, to be partially disassembled and melted down, a la Auric Goldfinger’s Rolls Royce.

    If you got a lot of shiny, gotta get it out of the country somehow. That is why my sister is setting gold coins into jewelry. You can walk right through customs, and if challenged, tell them it’s gold plated crap.

  97. 3B says:

    #99 Well JJ You were making alot of assumptions there now weren’t you. As far as your blue chip firm, lots of layoffs going on at those places lately.

  98. nj escapee says:

    Nom, yeah it certainly is possible to do but that means there could also be a big target on the owner’s back. It would be very difficult to keep things like that a secret.

  99. Young Buck says:

    You need to use a participating lender. Looks like there are only 6 for NJ.

    http://www.homepath.com/financing/renovationlenders.html

    afed says:
    October 27, 2011 at 2:44 pm
    Hi, anyone have any knowledge of what mortgage company would be good to contact in NJ for a Homepath renovation mortgage? I’m a first time homebuyer interested in a fannie mae property. Any suggestions are welcome.
    Thanks in advance.

  100. 30 year realtor says:

    #93 Afed – call Steve from Prime Lending 201-264-6966

  101. JJ says:

    I love to assume as it makes and ass out of you and me. Oddly enough I got my first job in Financial Sevices at the age of 18 at Barclays Bank. I have been continously working in Financial services since the age of 18 without every being laid off. I like to think it is my amazing good looks and work ethic. But a few of the companies I worked at long after I left ran into trouble and I turned down jobs or was not offered the job at places like Bear Stearns. I have been at places with lay-offs, even major lay-offs but I never got picked. I do think the 1998 meltdown was the worse yet and I am pretty much one of the few people I know who kept his job. When my time comes no one will feel bad for me considering my long stretch of full employment.

    Right now lay-offs are really just dead wood. Back in late 2008 and early 2009 it was the baby out with the bath water. I know place like CIT and NYCB justdid lay-offs of something like the bottom 5% of staff. Talk about hard time job hunting when the only reall you were laid off is you are a bottom 5% performer.
    3Bsays:
    October 27, 2011 at 3:47 pm
    #99 Well JJ You were making alot of assumptions there now weren’t you. As far as your blue chip firm, lots of layoffs going on at those places lately.

  102. JJ says:

    I ment the 2008 meltdown, the 1998 meltdown was another meltdown. Too many to keep track of.

  103. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    (102) escapee,

    Makes for good theater.

  104. Juice Box says:

    Gotta love this. China is willing to help Europe by buying bonds that is if we drop our protectionist ways and let Alibaba buy Yahoo and if we give them market economy status in the WTO.

    There will be no bailout, just more money printing so enjoy your cheap stuff while you can.

  105. JJ says:

    JB what up, you sound almost anti american, will I find you sleeping in a park tonight?

    Juice Box says:
    October 27, 2011 at 4:41 pm
    Gotta love this. China is willing to help Europe by buying bonds that is if we drop our protectionist ways and let Alibaba buy Yahoo and if we give them market economy status in the WTO.

    There will be no bailout, just more money printing so enjoy your cheap stuff while you can.

  106. Juice Box says:

    JJ – just trying to track how many times European Banks has been saved by China in the last year. I think we are up to 10. Shades of 2008 when shtf around here. I don’t think Europe will get anything from China just like the US Banks did not get anything from them either.

  107. A.West says:

    Speaking of “enjoy your cheap stuff while you can”. I’ve got family members in China, and have been visiting. In Shanghai, branded products are definitely more expensive there than here. Not just in stores for foreigners but mega-marts for the middle class. I don’t know how long that price disparity can last. It also tells me that the exchange rate is no longer undervalued. Even outside of Shanghai, prices have gone way up. The pig snout with chili oil I had in Sichuan was just as expensive there as pig ears w/ chili are in NJ.
    I’m pretty sure the US is among the cheapest places to shop in the world right now. That may not last too much longer.

  108. chicagofinance says:

    It is not a bond cornholio….

    JJ says:
    October 27, 2011 at 2:27 pm
    ChiFi, before I get burnt. I have been buying Bank of America bonds last two weeks. Yields have dropped like a brick since Monday. However this one Bank of America bonds is still above 9%. What is the catch?

    Thanks

    NB CAP TR IV CAP SECS 8.25000% 04/15/2027
    CUSIP 62874HAA3
    NB CAP TR IV CAP SECS 8.25000% 04/15/2027
    Price (Ask) 93.500
    Yield to Worst (Ask) 9.038%

  109. chicagofinance says:

    Beavis on at 10PM tonight….

  110. Shore Guy says:

    “Justice” would be Corzine having to sell his place to raise money to eat.

  111. Shore Guy says:

    From the psychopath article. They could be speaking about many business leaders and sure sound like a LOT of politicians:

    “”Psychopaths make up about 1 percent of the general population and as much as 25 percent of male offenders in federal correctional settings, according to the researchers. Psychopaths are typically profoundly selfish and lack emotion. “In lay terms, psychopaths seem to have little or no ‘conscience,'” write the researchers in a study published online in the journal Legal and Criminological Psychology.

    Psychopaths are also known for being cunning and manipulative, and they make for perilous interview subjects, according to Michael Woodworth, one of the authors and a psychologist who studies psychopathy at the University of British Columbia, who joined the discussion by phone.

    “It is unbelievable,” Woodworth said. “You can spend two or three hours and come out feeling like you are hypnotized.”

  112. nj escapee says:

    wow, looks like you guys might see snow this weekend brrrrr. better you than me :)

  113. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    #111 A. West I’m pretty sure the US is among the cheapest places to shop in the world right now. That may not last too much longer.

    Yep

  114. Shore Guy says:

    NJE,

    As you sit around in the sunshine this weekend regretting having to endure 80 degree weather and turquoise water remember, if you were only willing to man up and pay the taxes and endure the commute, you could live someplace with excellent proximity to both snow and Manhattan.

  115. Shore Guy says:

    “cheapest places to shop in the world right now. ”

    Especially staple foods.

  116. Shore Guy says:

    He was for the crackdown before he was against it?

  117. Shore Guy says:

    i don’t know if anyone else is noticing this but, I have been seeing LOTS of sub $400,000 houses east of Main Street from Belmar up to O.G. Beyond that, there are a good number of low $300,000 places as well. Had they been priced this way a year ago, we would have pounced. Now, after experiencing Duck, NC, and some of the other places in the OBX, which lack the dagger of unfunded pension liabilities dangling over one’s head, we could care less about buying another place.

  118. Juice Box says:

    re 3 127 – Shore – she Asian woman who spent 12 years on the school board, there apparently is a recall petition for her has well.

  119. joyce says:

    (128)
    Corolla, NC is amazing

    I don’t know if this would interest you, but there is a town(s) north of Corolla which is just starting to lay down infrastructure (roads and such) where there are many lots for sale where you can build your own.

  120. Shore Guy says:

    Joyce,

    Up in the 4-wheel area? I have been up there. It has a certain appeal.

  121. Shore Guy says:

    Corolla is nice and Southern Shores has some spots that are okay but we really like many parts of Duck. The very southern part of Naggs Head is alright but a bit too flat for my comfort zone. The town of Avon, not ours, theirs, was in the running with us, but it took too much damage from the last storm (which was not that big) to stay on our list.

  122. Shore Guy says:

    Nags Head, too

  123. joyce says:

    Shore-
    Yes, I was referring to the 4-wheel drive area, Carova Beach specifically (but there are 2-3 others). If quite is appealing to you, that is the place to go since it will be the least commercialized for the foreseeable future.

    I would stay away from ALL of Nags Head in terms of buying something. Of course go to dinner there, if you know a nice place.

  124. Confused in NJ says:

    “At a certain point we have to ask why the FDA continues to approve drugs that are less safe and have no benefit compared to drugs already on the market,” said Dr. Diana Zuckerman, president of the National Center for Women and Families, a consumer group for women’s health issues. “With all these different birth control options, why take the most expensive one that can also kill you?”

    Interesting Question!

  125. Shore Guy says:

    Confused,

    There are also antibiotics that are well known to lead to tendon ruptures. Egads, if something else will work, why risk an unnecessary danger?

  126. Shore Guy says:

    Joyce,

    We have explored up there, all the way to the VA border. I was relieved to see a firehouse up there. It would be a good excuse for ditching the luxury cars and just living in an old jeep. Just the ocean, the jeep, and the horses.

  127. Shore Guy says:

    If you have experiences with the Duck/Carolla area, fee free to have Grim give you my e-mail. We are looking for input.

  128. Will be pretty easy to set up a hard perimeter in any Outer Banks community when the civil war gets going in earnest.

  129. Shore Guy says:

    I am no fan of Rove but he hits the nail on the head here:

    The President Who Hates to Govern
    The president now says he wants to rebuild our roads. So why has he been stalling on the highway bill since 2009?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203687504576655183399057512.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

  130. joyce says:

    138
    Shore,
    Taking into consideration (139), how can you say no now?

    ; )

  131. Shore Guy says:

    agents go all out to market luxury homes
    Competition for qualified buyers is fierce. So agents are staging mini-circuses, serving free drinks, offering massages and raffling off Botox treatments to draw guests to open houses.

    http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-luxe-marketing-20111027,0,2189252.story

  132. Shore Guy says:

    I keep forgetting to ask thr realtors about whether the homes come with overlapping fields of fire.

  133. Shore Guy says:

    Perry hides from debates:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/campaigns/perry-wont-commit-to-rash-of-upcoming-gop-debates-after-several-rocky-ones-in-white-house-bid/2011/10/27/gIQAXMkjMM_story.html

    AUSTIN, Texas — Rick Perry may skip some upcoming GOP presidential debates, sidestepping a campaign staple that hasn’t been kind to the Texas governor in his first two months on the national stage.

    snip

  134. Qwerty says:

    Peter Schiff chats with hippie Wall Street protestors:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGL-Ex1CD1c

  135. Shore Guy says:

    Possible topic for later today?

    http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2011/10/26/destroying-houses-to-save-cities/

    More and more cities across the country are tearing down vacant buildings in an attempt to address the housing foreclosure crisis. The banks, weary of continued upkeep and taxes, are often more than happy to hand over these foreclosed houses to “land banks” for free — or in some cases, for the cost of demolition.

    snip

  136. scribe says:

    good night, nj

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