Where do we go from here?

From CNBC:

Real Estate Recovery a Tale of Good, Bad and Ugly

In Miami, condominiums are hot again.

In Phoenix, builders are opening new communities.

In New Jersey, buyers are finding it takes about three years to foreclose on a property

In Atlanta, home prices are down 14 percent annually, thanks to a new wave of foreclosures.

In California, more than half of all home sales in February involved distressed properties, but sales were up 5 percent month-to-month.

In Northern Virginia, a half million dollar home just sold in less than a week.

The housing recovery is under way in fits and starts, but it is volatile, and it is local.

Home prices nationally are down around 4 percent from a year ago, according to the latest report from S&P/Case-Shiller. While price declines are decelerating, that’s a new low for the index, which is now down 34.4 percent from its peak in 2006.

“Our view is that foreclosures, excess supply, and weak demand will drive home prices as measured by the Case-Shiller indices down at least another 5 percent,” says Patrick Newport of IHS Global Insight.

Newport points to the following negatives: 12 percent of homeowners with mortgages (i.e., more than 6 million homeowners) were either delinquent on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of the fourth quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association; 22 percent of residential properties with mortgages are currently underwater, according to CoreLogic.

While the employment picture is improving, unemployment and underemployment are still running high, and mortgage rates, which hit historical lows just a few months ago, are on the rise again.

None of this points to a speedy recovery.

With more regulation ahead for the mortgage market, an uncertain future for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and 11 million Americans owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth, housing will not spring back to life, no matter what the season.

Instead, it will likely sputter for a while, surge, retreat and repeat the cycle, until most of the distressed inventory is sold and home prices finally find a bottom.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

43 Responses to Where do we go from here?

  1. Ten Swamps says:

    Tenafly Comp Killer

    25 Grandview Ter, East Hill, Tenafly, Bergen County
    Victorian mansion, 5,215 sqft
    “House of the Day” – WSJ, May 13, 2009
    NJMLS#: 1135772

    Original list price: $2.2 million (May 2005)
    Reduced price: $1.6 million (January 2008)
    Reduced price: $1.48 million (May 2009)
    Reduced price: $1.3 million (October 2010)
    Reduced price: $1.25 million (April 2011)
    Reduced price: $1.225 million (September 2011)
    Sale price: $999,900 (March 2012)

    Tax assessment: $1,312,000 (2011)

  2. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Flooding Risk Rises Statewide

    FOR those living or working near flood plains along New Jersey’s ocean or river fronts, it’s been nothing but bad news lately.

    A new study measuring the threat that rising seas pose to coastal communities found that among states with municipalities at elevated risk of severe flooding, New Jersey was tied for third place (with North Carolina). And inland, towns along the Raritan, Passaic and Delaware Rivers have recently been walloped by a series of intense storms that left thousands of home and business owners reeling. The increased frequency of these flood-causing events has scientists wondering if this is the “new normal” for New Jersey, while public officials, engineers and insurance companies grapple with how to respond.

    “We don’t know what normal is anymore,” said David A. Robinson, the state climatologist, noting that 2011 was the wettest year on record in New Jersey. “We don’t know if it’s a trend, or just an episode. We know humans are having an impact on global temperatures, and there’s some suggestion that that’s triggering more rainfall.”

    The study of rising sea levels and an accompanying report, “Surging Seas,” released in March, predict that the ocean could rise a foot over the next 30 to 40 years, increasing the vulnerability of the 3.7 million Americans living less than four feet above sea level. Like North Carolina, New Jersey has 22 municipalities in which more than half the population lives below the four-foot mark, according to the study. (Florida has 106 such communities, Louisiana 65.) Produced by the nonprofit Climate Central in Princeton, the study (http://sealevel.climatecentral.org) includes an interactive map that outlines the threat levels to 3,000 coastal areas. Along with Atlantic City and Cape May, the more vulnerable sites in New Jersey include two cities that surprised Benjamin Strauss, the study’s author: Hoboken and Jersey City.

    “When you talk about rising seas,” he said, “people automatically think of houses at the beach. But you get that gentle slope back in places like Hoboken that can cause more trouble.”

    Rivers, too, can cause trouble. New Jersey’s inland riverfront communities have been hit harder than coastal areas by nearly annual storms in recent years, including Hurricane Irene at the end of August and Tropical Storm Lee in the first week of September; both caused severe flooding.

  3. grim says:

    Speaking of comp killers, how about Short Hills!

    11 Shawnee, Milburn NJ
    Purchased: 7/1/2008
    Purchase Price: $2,850,000
    Sold: 1/30/2012
    Sale Price: $2,425,000

    8 York, Millburn NJ
    Purchased 9/27/2003
    Purchase Price: $2,400,000
    Sold: 3/2/2012
    Sale Price: $1,943,000

    66 Montview, Millburn NJ
    Purchased: 5/25/2004
    Purchase Price: $2,800,000
    Sold: 3/23/2012
    Sale Price: $1,875,000

    25 Athens, Millburn NJ
    Purchased: 9/5/2005
    Purchase Price: $1,175,000
    Sold: 2/29/12
    Sale Price: $975,200

  4. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Where do we go from here?

    Don’t know about the rest of you but I’m going to Maui.

    Unfortunately, the weather is supposed to suck.

    But at least it isn’t Noo joisey.

  5. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    After Maui, who knows but exit visas have been requested.

  6. gary says:

    grim,

    66 Montview, Millburn NJ

    Wow!

  7. gary says:

    It’s dated… needs some work, listed in the low 500s, nice property but taxes at 12.5K. You tell me what the sale price should be:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3078298421-16-Kent-Rd-Hillsdale-NJ-07642

  8. grim says:

    You want wow? How about $46,000 in taxes?

  9. gary says:

    Listed at 724K, over 4 months on Trulia, who knows how long this has been on the market. Taxes are over 14K:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3070513479-88-Mountainview-Ter-Hillsdale-NJ-07642

  10. NWNJHighlander says:

    16-Kent-Rd-Hillsdale-NJ-07642
    I’d put it at 460k to 480k, depends on buyer’s desire to refurb the kitchen/bath.
    It’ll be close to town median $ per sq ft.

    Obviously the Passaic river floods due to global warming and not the clear cutting of the aquifer riverbanks upstream. ClimateCentral.org is a joke btw, try not to take too much of their PR releases for fact.

  11. gary says:

    Taxes are killing everybody. OMG!

  12. gary says:

    Again with the Tandy and Allen label on this listing below. And my house is a “vintage” cape so I want 100K more than my neighbor.

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3070747059-97-Stony-Ridge-Dr-Hillsdale-NJ-07642

  13. 30 year realtor says:

    Taxes? Going on a listing appointment in Glen Rock this morning. Seller wants out because taxes on their 1300 square foot, 3 bedroom, 1 bath ranch are almost $11,000. Plan is to sell and stay in the area and RENT.

  14. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary 14, that house butt fu*ken ugly.

  15. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Gary 14, that house is butt fu*ken ugly.

  16. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Oops……

  17. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Did not even look at the inside pics , drive by keep going.

  18. gary says:

    30 year realtor,

    I’ve been a homeowner for 17 years and if I decide to make one more move, the thought of renting never crossed my mind until recently. The property taxes in our area have distorted the model so badly that metrics no longer exist. We went on this diatribe about physics yesterday and the concept of homeownwership in our area is akin to defying the laws of physics.

  19. gary says:

    Mikeinwaiting,

    And they’re asking $650,000 for that f*cking double wide. Insane!

  20. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Personally, I am looking forward to the student loan bubble. Should be a great source of business, especially now that I have learned how to reduce or eliminate student loan debts (thank you, Obama) legally and without resorting to bankruptcy and its very high bar. Doesn’t help me personally, but I can certainly help paying clients with this newfound knowledge.

    For the past two weeks, and for an additional two weeks in the future, I have been attending day-long CLE courses on consumer law taught by a pro bono organization. Basically, it is boot camp for representing deadbeats.

    I am learning how to get people out of their credit card debts, hospital bills, car loans, student loans, and other debts, through various means: bankruptcy, aggressive negotiation, and others. A lot of it I already knew something about, but it is eye-opening nonetheless.

    Great part is that the courses are essentially free—I just pay a $15 fee per day for catering. The hook is that I have to take one pro bono case from them but NJ lawyers already have an obligation imposed by the court to do that–If I don’t certify that I am doing pro bono, the court will assign me a case.

    So I get additional training in how to represent deadbeats that I can use in my paying practice, I satisfy my pro bono requirement on my terms, and I get my CLE requirement largely satisfied for free. Nice.

    It’s no wonder that the course is “sold out.”

  21. Metroplexual says:

    What no mention of Las Vegas in the article? Every RE article if it mentions bad news has to talk about LV.

  22. gary says:

    The burden is big: U.S. college students borrowed $117 billion in federal student loans last year, and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau reported earlier this year that debt from student loans exceeds $1 trillion, surpassing credit card debt for the first time.

    The plight of college grads has been well documented in the media. There are the Harvard-educated 22-year-olds who are working as Starbucks baristas. Or the liberal-arts grad taking a second unpaid internship. The Phi Beta Kappa member working in retail sales. There are similar stories like these around the country. Even for students lucky enough to find a full-time job after graduating, many are low paying and more often than not exclude previous guaranteed perks like health insurance or a 401k plan.

    Does this mean a starter home @ 400K and 11K in taxes is not an option? :o

  23. All turning to shit now. And the pace is accelerating.

  24. t c m says:

    Question for Nicholas, and all the other engineering types out there (I know you’re out there after seeing all the equations on yesterday’s thread!)

    How would you advise a soon to be graduate of Electrical Engineering (Electronics) with a Masters to look for a job? – Are there any specific Headhunters that specialize that you know of or websites?

  25. still_looking says:

    First case of pertussis (whooping cough) identified at my kid’s school.

    Email went out today from the principal.

    sl

  26. Zack says:

    Not worth more than 214K

    #8 gary: How much should I bid on the below listing?

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1208122&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  27. Captain Sunshine says:

    We go onward! On to happiness!

  28. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 28 Taxes ?

  29. Jill says:

    3b #28: “Sold in as is condition”? $365k, tops.

  30. Essex says:

    Baaattle of the Bluegrass.

  31. Behindthefence says:

    tcm -#27

    Get yourself on signed up on Linkedin (it’s free). You will not only find good industry contacts, recruiters included, there are a number of specialized groups you can join that will give you visibility to companies hiring.

    Engineers are still a much in demand commodity even in this economy. Just be prepared to relocate to get the best position.

    Best of luck on the job hunt!

  32. AG says:

    14,

    Gary,

    Love the pic of the furnace. Thats a real eye grabber. Personally, I would rather bury 2 shipping containers in the forest and live in it vs inhabiting that over priced, over taxed rat trap. Is Marsha Brady included in the house price or do you have to pay extra?

  33. Juice Box says:

    Re: 37 – nom i know an investor in Current they might fold over this.

  34. Shore Guy says:

    “Where do we go”

    Where do we go? The Talking Heads said it well:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWtCittJyr0

  35. Shore Guy says:

    But wyh wouldn’t one dive into indebtedness in order to gain access to the cream of America’s intellectual society?

    http://www.rollingstone.com/​culture/news/​confessions-of-an-ivy-league-fr​at-boy-inside-dartmouths-hazin​g-abuses-20120328?print=true

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