Is distressed the new normal?

From CNBC:

Short Sales Higher, Prices Lower

Buyer traffic is strong, supply of homes for sale is low, and yet home prices continue to defy the usual formula, falling again in March. Prices usually rise as supply shrinks, but demand is still too low to make those historical “norms” compute, not to mention that the type of supply available is largely distressed.

Foreclosures and short sales (when the home is sold for less than the value of the mortgage) accounted for 47.7 percent of sales, in a three month running average measured by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance. That’s the 25th month in a row that distressed sales have topped 40 percent of the market.

“With nearly half of the market being distressed, we’re a long way from a return to a normal market,” said Thomas Popik, research director at Campbell Surveys. “Agents responding to our survey say that homeowners with well-maintained properties in good locations are very reluctant to list at today’s prices. That’s why inventory is low—and also why forced REO and short sales are such a big proportion of the remaining market.”

Home prices for non-distressed properties fell 5.7 percent in March year-over-year, according to the survey. Prices for “damaged” REO (bank-owned properties) fell 5.7 percent and for move-in ready REO fell 2.5 percent during the same period. The real sticker shock is in short sales. Prices of those homes fell 14.3 percent from March of 2011.

That share is likely to grow, as the conservator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), last week announced it was directing the two mortgage giants to “develop enhanced and aligned strategies for facilitating short sales, deeds-in-lieu and deeds-for-lease in order to help more homeowners avoid foreclosure.” It includes a requirement that mortgage servicers review and respond to short sale requests within thirty days.

“This could put short-term downward pressure on home prices, as short sales by their nature occur more quickly than foreclosures,” writes Jaret Seiberg, analyst at Guggenheim Partners. “That could raise questions about the status of the housing recovery, which could be negative for those with housing exposure. That would include homebuilders, mortgage lenders and mortgage insurers.”

On the plus side, short sales tend to sell at higher prices than foreclosures. It appear, however, that regardless of the FHFA edict, banks are already ramping up the short sales. Some began doing so in the aftermath of the robo-signing scandal, as foreclosures stalled. Even now, foreclosures falling as short sales rise. The good news is that sales of distressed properties are rising, but the headlines will likely focus more on the falling prices, than the much-needed clearing of these homes.

This entry was posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

133 Responses to Is distressed the new normal?

  1. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Sales of New U.S. Homes Probably Climbed in March

    Sales of new homes probably increased in March for the first time in three months, indicating the market is struggling to stabilize, economists said before a report today.

    Purchases rose to a 318,000 annual rate, up 1.6 percent from 313,000 in February, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 77 economists. Other reports may show consumer confidence dropped for a second month and home prices decreased at a slower pace.

    Residential real estate remains a soft spot in the economy, challenged by stricter lending standards and more foreclosures, which depress property values. At the same time, an improved labor market and mortgage rates near historic lows may help prevent the market from slipping further.

    “The long-term trend is generally improvement but it’s not going anywhere fast,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s, which produces the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price gauge. “We’ve some slightly better numbers in the last few months on starts and sales, but definitely not on prices.”

    Economist estimates for March sales in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 300,000 to 337,000. The report from the Commerce Department is due at 10 a.m. New York time.

  2. grim says:

    Came across this one from Boston, thought Case’s comments were interesting since he is pointing to mix shift as a reason for falling median prices, a very different conclusion than the headline post.

    From CBS Boston:

    Real Estate Market Getting More Competitive

    The state’s resilient housing market continued to show signs of recovery in March, as buyers chased discounted prices and posted the eighth consecutive month of single-family home sale increases.

    “I’m excited about what’s happening,” Karl Case, co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller Index told the BBJ.

    “Over the last six months there have been lots of positive numbers: housing starts are up, inventories are down, first-time and speculative buying is on the rise.”

    Agents sold 2,791 single-family homes last month, an 18.4 percent increase from the 2,357 homes sold during the same month last year, according to the MLS Property Information Network, New England’s largest MLS listing service.

    Amid the selling frenzy in one of the warmest March months in memory, the median selling price for single-family home fell to $267,000, down from $275,000 one year ago, a 2.9 percent drop.

    More than half of the homes sold were priced from $50,000 to $299,999, a sign that buyers are taking advantage of some of the lowest prices in years.

    But Case dismissed any suggestion lower median prices equals lower home values.

    He said the median represents the middle price of what’s selling and most sales are for homes that are well under $300,000. MLS lists sales by price range in $50,000 increments. The block in which the most homes sold was $250,000-to-$299,000, with 401 transactions within that range.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. Another day in hell.

  5. Fabius Maximus says:

    Nice piece on Jalopnik. Personally I always walked through riots. Its iffy at times, but take it slow and steady and wait for the lulls.

    http://jalopnik.com/5904300/the-ten-best-vehicles-to-drive-through-a-riot/gallery/1

  6. JJ says:

    Chris Christie Cracks me up when he tells Nets good riddance. That location sucks. Friday I got offered four 100 level Nets tickets for last night game which was to be last game ever. They even planned a big halftime event. Did I go, NO, why not nobody I called wanted to go to Jersey not even the people who live in Jersey. The Jersey people even said I rather go to Brooklyn. The train pulls in a long walk from the arena and run s irregularly. MSG is such a better location for basketball.

  7. 30 year realtor says:

    Only seriously motivated sellers are willing to accept market value in today’s climate. This is why “distress sales” make up such a high percentage of total sales and why inventories remain low.

  8. Brass Balls says:

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – U.S. home prices dropped sharply in February to hit the worst level in nearly a decade, according to a closely followed index released Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite fell 0.8% compared to January levels to take the year-on-year drop to 3.5%. The index is at its lowest level since October 2002. Of the 20 cities measured, 16 had negative readings and only three showed gains. The decline may be due to the typical pattern of diminished interest during the winter and heightened interest in housing during the spring and summer, as prices rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis

  9. seif says:

    thanks for the post on short sales Grim.

    does a short-seller generally stop mortgage payments before they try the short sale or is that only foreclosures?

  10. Mike says:

    Look at this f*cking bitch! If it were my mother I would have decapitated her. http://www.my9tv.com/dpp/news/nj_videos/new-video-shows-nursing-home-abuse_04232012

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    On social security and the “unexpected” worsening of its fiscal health:

    http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM/index.html

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again; means-testing isn’t an “if” proposition, it’s a “when” and “by how much” proposition. That is to say, means-testing is a certainty. The only thing that isn’t certain is what the income-cutoff(s) will be and how far a look-back will they use to “claw back” assets into the net worth calculation.

    I predict that the thresholds will be much lower than many people expect because the decision to implement means-testing won’t come until there is a crisis point. Then I predict that OASDI and Medicare will be cut out altogether for those deemed “wealthy”, and lessened (by what degree, who can say?) for those deemed “well off enough”.

    As for a look-back, I expect that it will be 10 years. There is an expectation of 5 years, based on Medicaid’s current look-back, but congress will want to catch all of the folks who are going to have the good sense to plan for this and reconfigure their estates accordingly. Interestingly, I can see planning opportunities that dovetail with disaster prepping and traditional asset protection (I have already been looking at disaster prep as a form of alternative investment in an asset protection structure, so it fits nicely).

    Many of you won’t be affected, but some of you who don’t consider yourself wealthy, will be. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

  12. Brass Balls says:

    Comrade, this should only effect the childless. Between 55-65 Childrens college educations and weddings and mooching in general nearly bankrupts most americans.

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [10] mike,

    Sadly, nursing homes are staffed by the dregs generally, and are either so stupid or so detached that they don’t notice or care that they are monitored.

    Right now, home monitoring is a growing niche for telecomm/cable. Look for nursing home monitoring to become a niche within the niche.

  14. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [12] brass ones,

    So long as some of them are my clients, that’s all that matters.

    Or as the punchline goes “I don’t have to outrun the bear, I only have to outrun you.”

  15. 3b says:

    #7 30Year: It seems to me we would have more sales in our area too, if sellers just got serious about selling. SOme of the asksing prices are just insane. I don’t know why Realtors take these over priced listings.

  16. 3b says:

    Plus property taxes!!! Prices in this are cannot be divorced form property taxes, the two go hand in hand.

  17. Fabius Maximus says:

    #69 moose (previous thread)
    When you post W’s 500B number, you forgot to add all the unfunded entitlements such as the wars, tax cuts and medicare part D.

    Nice pic from the WH
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/infographics/us-national-debt

  18. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Fab 17 Whatever the truth is who spent what on this or that or who spent more depending on your choice of accounting standards it doesn’t matter. We are in deep and must stop taking candy from pols who are mortgaging our countries future to get elected.

  19. 3b says:

    #61 Fabius: From prior post. It is far more than just Freedom Fries, it goes all the way back to the 80′s. My point is Americn tourists should not be berated abroad because of their government’s foreign policy. I have seen it time and time again, in various European cities. My other point is I also find it ironic that a continent that was responsible for WW 1 and 2, Nazi’s, Fascists Communism, Hitler, Stalin, and all the rest is pointing fingers at the U.S. And lets not forget the former Yugoslavia, less than 20 years ago, and Europe stood by and watched the slaughter.

  20. 3b says:

    #18 Mike The current generation (especially the baby boomers) don’t care about the enxt generation.

  21. Libtard in Union says:

    3B,

    The first time I went to London, I was a broke college graduate. I think I went there with $200 in my pocket of which I blew about $50 of it on the Gatwick Express. The local girl I was meeting got stuck at work for an extra 4 hours or so, so I went to a pub to grab a few beers. It was probably shortly after Desert Storm and the locals made it very clear that I should tell people I was a Canadian. I was not surprised.

  22. 30 year realtor says:

    3b #15 – Why do agents take overpriced listings? They believe they can work the seller down over the course of a 6 month listing. The problem occurs when an agent tells a seller only what they want to hear.

    I will only accept an overpriced listing if the seller knows where I stand on the price. Let’s say my opinion of value is $375,000. I suggest a list price of $384,000 and the seller wants to list at $419. My explanation to the seller is: the difference between me and the agent who told you to list too high is what happens 30 days from now. After a month with 2 showings and no offers you call your agent and ask why there has been so little activity. Agent who promised you an unrealistic price now tells you, we need to bring the price down. 30 days earlier the agent was singing a sweet song about how much money they were going to get you for your house and now that song is only a memory. You no longer trust your agent and you still have 5 months of listing agreement remaining with an agent who you no longer trust. Don’t you want an agent who will tell you the truth?

    I hate agents that lie to sellers about the value of their home!

  23. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [18] mike

    Won’t happen. We are on our way to PIIGS status. Just a matter of time.

    Toward that end, the only advisable course is to prep. Not NatGeo Doomsday Preppers per se (pole shift? Really?), but asset protection through proper planning, which should include SHTF insurance to hedge against a hobbled economy.

  24. gary says:

    30 year realtor [7],

    Certainly! The sellers are so savvy that they’ll sit and watch the decline rather than accept market value. We know their market value is the “real” one!

  25. seif says:

    even people will cursory knowledge of residential RE know: homes priced right attract buyers and go into contract quickly…others sit.

  26. Mikeinwaiting says:

    3b 20 I am a boomer, I care.
    Nom 23 Most likely you are right, holding on to a little hope though.

  27. 3b says:

    #26 So am I (tail end),a nd I care too, but most others dont from what I see and hear.

  28. Brass Balls says:

    In Germany US Citzens are treated better than Germans. I actually commented on this to a German person while I was there, his answer is you should be afterall you won the war. Funny in Japan I also got treated great. We won the Revolutionary war so tell your English friends unless they want a rematch they better start respecting us. No country where men drink warm beer in a pub and ask other men if they would like to suck on a fag should be a world power.

    3b says:
    April 24, 2012 at 10:11 am
    #61 Fabius: From prior post. It is far more than just Freedom Fries, it goes all the way back to the 80′s. My point is Americn tourists should not be berated abroad because of their government’s foreign policy. I have seen it time and time again, in various European cities. My other point is I also find it ironic that a continent that was responsible for WW 1 and 2, Nazi’s, Fascists Communism, Hitler, Stalin, and all the rest is pointing fingers at the U.S. And lets not forget the former Yugoslavia, less than 20 years ago, and Europe stood by and watched the slaughter.

  29. 3b says:

    #22 Thanks makes perfect sense. You can only adivse, the rest is up tot he sellers.

  30. gary says:

    seif [25],

    50% of the population are f*cking mor0ns. As a homeowner, when I sell, I will accept the price that the market tells me and not because of stupidity.

  31. 3b says:

    #21 Lib: I don’t t doubt it, not surprised at all. The thing is Europeans come here and visit. I honestly don’t think people harrass them about European affairs.

  32. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/chi-newhome-sales-fall-in-march-so-do-inventories-20120424,0,7876388.story

    New-home sales fall in March, so do inventories

    New U.S. single-family home sales dropped in March to their lowest level in four months, but the reading still beat analysts’ expectations as the government said sales in prior months were higher than initially thought.

    The Commerce Department said on Tuesday sales slipped 7.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 328,000-unit annual rate.

    snip

  33. Shore Guy says:

    unmod please

  34. Shore Guy says:

    “means-testing isn’t an ‘if’ proposition, it’s a ‘when’ and ‘by how much’ proposition.”

    Yup. And when the time comes, the kulaks will hear the cry “BOHICA!”

  35. Shore Guy says:

    Lets try this:

    What does one do with elephant gen-it-als? The scramble for oil and mineral wealth, I understand that. The same for forrest products. But gen-i-tals?

    African big game poaching surges on Asian affluence

    (Reuters) – The hit job was done by professionals who swooped over their quarry in a helicopter before opening fire.

    The scene beneath the rotor blades would have been chilling: panicked mothers shielding their young, hair-raising screeches and a mad scramble through the blood-stained bush as bullets rained down from the sky.

    When the shooting was over, 22 elephants lay dead, one of the worst such killings in northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo in living memory.

    “It’s been a long time since we’ve seen something like this,” said Dr Tshibasu Muamba, head of international cooperation for the Congolese state conservation agency, ICCN.

    After the slaughter in Garamba National Park the killers set about removing the animals’ tusks and ge-ni-tals. The grim booty was likely smuggled through South Sudan or Uganda, which form part of an “Ivory Road” linking Africa to Asia.

    Elephant and rhino poaching is surging, conservationists say, an illegal piece of Asia’s scramble for African resources, driven by the growing purchasing power of the region’s newly affluent classes
    snip

  36. Mikeinwaiting says:

    It is April shouldn’t new home sales be going north.

  37. Brian says:

    Did you guys see the video of the two kids that chased that convoy of luxury sports cars down the parkway?

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/04/video_shows_nj_state_police_le.html

    Hilarious. Typical two NJ dopey kids blasting techno music filmed the entire thing.

    They’re screaming “we can’t keep up” I can’t stop watching it. There’s no shortage of stupid people in the world and now we get to watch it all on video. What a world.

  38. Anon E. Moose says:

    Fab [17];

    Nice [Ha!] pic from the WH

    This biggest “Bush” policy in that Oblama propoganda piece is a so-called $3 Trillion “cost” of tax cuts. Well, tax cuts don’t “cost” anything if the government doesn’t spend the uncollected money — so once again the problem is over-spending, not under-taxing. Of course you don’t care about that because to a lefty like you taxes are only for the “other” people.

    Have another cup of Hopium-flavored Kool Aid.

  39. Anon E. Moose says:

    3b [20];

    The current generation (especially the baby boomers) don’t care about the enxt generation.

    That’s the Locust Generation™.

  40. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [39];

    The propaganda pience complains about $1.4 T spent on the Iraq and Afghan war. I thought candidate Obama said the Afghan war was the ‘smart’ war? Yet another Obama statement past its expiration date, I guess.

  41. seif says:

    38

    great video. i think the idiots are the cops that escorted the cars, not the kids. how could the cops think that was an alright thing to do? that must have been a lot of fun (albeit dangerous) for the kids following. i am glad they got it on tape for us to see.

  42. plume (11)-

    IMO, in the near future, the biggest healthcare issue will be simple self-preservation.

    If you can squeeze off kill shots at a 70% rate or so, you’ll be able to protect you and yours against the marauding gubmint forces that will eventually show up at your doorstep.

  43. They won’t stop until they’ve robbed us blind and either rendered us homeless or imprisoned.

  44. Brian says:

    43 –

    Ironically, at one point during the video the caravan blasts by a woman in a crappy little car who has been pulled over by a different state trooper and is being issued a summons.

    You Go 1% !!!!!

  45. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Hey if you can’t win on your record f*ck it buy votes Hope, change and free sh!t!

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-student-loan-push-helps-him-court-crucial-135330798.html

  46. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Interesting study. The commenters noticed that the three most “peaceful” states in the US are the three “whitest” states in the union. That will set some tongues to wagging.

    http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/04/survey-maine-ranked-most-peaceful-state-louisiana-last/1

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Of course, one commenter also noted that they are frozen solid 9 months of the year and stuck in mud the remaining 3. So no wonder they are peaceful.

  48. Libtard in Union says:

    3b (31): “The thing is Europeans come here and visit. I honestly don’t think people harrass them about European affairs.”

    Unless they’re French.

  49. njescapee says:

    Been down here 7 yrs where we have loads of tourists and visitors from all over Europe. Never hear of any BS. They come here for the great weather, food, booze and a little nu-dity.

  50. daddyo says:

    FYI – Kane Brewing will be at the Office in Brigadoon tonight. Lot of buzz on this new NJ brewery, and so far, you can only get it on tap every once in a while.

    Als0 – Watching Man. United tie Everton this weekend was priceless.

  51. gryffindor says:

    #52 – Edison-New Brunswick is the second “most peaceful” metropolitan area? LOL, seriously. Whoever wrote that have never driven on Route 1.

  52. gryffindor says:

    #52 – Oh wait, I just read their criteria for “most peaceful.” Nevermind then. The criteria doesn’t include “road rage” which I would say should also knock Nassau-Suffolk off that list as well.

  53. When I get road rage, it’s because the other guy had it coming to him.

  54. Fabius Maximus says:

    #19 3b
    Careful on that one. A lot of the NATO force that depoyed in the Balkans were European. Just like the amount of heavy lifting the UK is doing in the likes of Kandahar.

  55. Fabius Maximus says:

    #39 moose
    Sorry I forgot GWB said that he was returning the surplus to the people (instead of paying down the defecit at that point) and the rest of the cuts would pay for themselves.

    No idea where the CBO got that 3T cost number. Is that why the right is calling for the CBO to be defunded and cut. They just keep makng mistakes.

  56. Libtard in the City says:

    Chifi: Kind of interesting in its simplicity.

    “Is modern portfolio theory bunk?”

    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20120419/FREE/120419912

  57. JJ says:

    The Housing index is at its lowest level since October 2002.Interesting they make it seem if you bought in October 2002 you broke even. (lets just forget about cost of mortgage interest, RE Taxes maints etc.) Lets compare opportunity cost.
    The ten year treasury yielded 4.5% in October 2002. Lets say you bought a 500K house in October 2002. Wait I lost ten years interest income. Which is $225,000. If I had spend my 500K on a ten year treasury in October 2002 not even counting fact I would have reinvested interest I would have $725,000 today. In reality you would have bought more ten year bonds every year with your 22,500 annual interest. Which would make it closer to $800K.

    Now lets say you took a mortgage out, put down 100K and financed 400K at 5%. Ouch you would have spent 200K on interest.

    Whoops final value is home 500K – 200K in interest is 300K vs. Treasury bond of 800k.

    If I told anyone in October 2002 buying a ten year treasury would make them more than double in ten years than buying a house I would have been laughed at.

    But wait 2002 is pre-bubble Imagine comparision between April 2007 buying a home vs a 5 year treasury?

  58. Fabius Maximus says:

    #51 pain

    The funny part was Mitt the Marvelous followed him in supporting in calling for congress to to stop the interest rate increase.

  59. joyce says:

    64

    Yeah, cause there’s very little difference between the two… what else is new

    (and it’s wrong no matter whose lying criminal mouth it comes out of)

  60. Shore Guy says:

    “If I told anyone in October 2002 buying a ten year treasury would make them more than double in ten years than buying a house I would have been laughed at. ”

    The numbers are what they are but, the buyer of the treasury did not get the “pride in ownership” (whatever the heck that means). And, nobody calls a friend and says, “Hey, I just bought a new Treasury Bond, come on over to see it.” So there.

  61. Shore Guy says:

    We might do just as well drafting a president. One day a person goes to the mailbox and finds a letter that begins “Greeting.”

  62. Brian says:

    63 –

    Luckily, my home is constructed completely out of treasuries and junk bonds.

  63. Libtard in the City says:

    You can’t sleep in a bond.

  64. Shadow of John says:

    But you can sleep with an onion.

  65. Libtard in the City says:

    Nice!

  66. Brian says:

    Yeah it does get a bit soggy when it rains.

  67. seif says:

    Stern played the audio of this today…once again, thank you kids of today for taping and airing all the stupid stuff you do:

    http://www.shabooty.com/2012/04/23/this-cant-be-life-the-facebook-pics-jacking-off-song-as-played-on-the-howard-stern-show.php

    (alternative headline: A video of JJ singing about what he does in his office each day)

  68. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Nom [11] Means Testing – You be preachin’ to da choir.

  69. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [56] daddyo

    You going?

  70. 3b says:

    #60 The point is the Europeans let become a bllod bathe before they intervened. At the end of the day Europeans should not be pointing fingers at the Americans, based on their own history of mistakes and massive blood shed.

    Americans go to Europe to visit and spend money that the Europeans need. They should not be lectured and abused.

  71. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Marketwatch on CNBC reports that drop in Walmart seems severe in light of similar drops at other companies hit with bribery allegations abroad. Posited several reasons why the street was punishing Walmart.

    But to me, they overlooked the obvious: Walmart is reviled by the left, Obama is in office, and this is an election year. I think that the street expects this administration to beat up on WMT pretty severely in order to burnish its cred with the progressives, mollify the unions, and to appear all law and orderish to the masses.

  72. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    3b not to jump in on the European bashing but I’m overseas quite a bit and Americans are up there with the most obnoxious travelers. Neck and Neck with Brits and Middle Easterners.

    i identify myself as Canadian because i get better service that way

  73. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [74] expat,

    Maybe, but the choir may not be walking the walk.

  74. x-everything says:

    63.JJ says:
    Whoops final value is home 500K – 200K in interest is 300K vs. Treasury bond of 800k.

    You forgot one thing…you’d have to rent a house during that time. A $500,000 house would probably be $3,000/mo x 120 months = $360,000.

    They’re much closer with that factored in

  75. Nomad says:

    Brian #38 – scary video luckily someone wasn’t killed. As for the owners of the sports cars, if they really were interested in high performance driving, they would be on a race track with their machinery. As they are not, they are merely out to display the crests and do a little straight line acceleration which takes no skill (or stones) whatsoever.

  76. seif says:

    77 – that is a cute theory, but it runs much deeper than that…Obama actually set up the bribes so his administration could “beat up on WMT pretty severely in order to burnish its cred with the progressives, mollify the unions, and to appear all law and orderish to the masses.”

    You don’t give the guy enough credit. Also, since when is 2.5% to the downside a punishing?

  77. Brian says:

    81 –

    Yeah but speeding down the parkway on the way to the shore just reminds me of summertime in NJ :)

  78. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [82] seif,

    Never took you for a conspiracy theorist. But given this administration’s undisputed track record, is this an unreasonable expectation? Yes or no?

    And you have to compare the drop to similarly situated companies. I can only presume that the analysts covered did that insofar as the reporting said that is what they did.

  79. Brass Balls says:

    If you do that then factor in RE taxes, maint, heat and repairs. Plus most people bought too much house. They would never have rented a house. I see tons of newlywed couples in 2004-2007 buying houses. Meanwhile they should have rented a one bedroom, a few years down the road when first baby was born put him in crib in living room for a few months then go house hunting which would have got them to 2012. They would have never rented a house. People thought the more you buy the better. Meanwhile no one would ever rent a larger apt than they need.

    x-everything says:
    April 24, 2012 at 2:17 pm
    63.JJ says:
    Whoops final value is home 500K – 200K in interest is 300K vs. Treasury bond of 800k.

    You forgot one thing…you’d have to rent a house during that time. A $500,000 house would probably be $3,000/mo x 120 months = $360,000.

    They’re much closer with that factored in

  80. seif says:

    84 – i was just messing around…but i took a look at the stock and it looks as if it was only down $1.53 at the lowest point today. that only equates to a 2.5% drop. WMT has been down more than that on days when they didn’t have a bribery scandal hanging over their heads.

  81. 3b says:

    #78 Oh I know and I have seen the ugly American many times, and it is embarrassing. But knock them for that, not for American forign policy.

  82. 3b says:

    #77 WHat is the bid deal, so a little palm greasing was done? If that is the way business gets done down there than so what? We are just honoring their cultural traditions, rather than forcing American ways on them.

  83. 3b says:

    Sorry big deal typing too fast.

  84. Brian says:

    85 – ” I see tons of newlywed couples in 2004-2007 buying houses”

    Yeah that’s me. But no regrets. I do find what happened in the real estate markets in that time interesting but hindsight is 20/20. Many people who blog here saw it coming and good for them.

    I was just moving with the rythm of life. You meet a girl, marry her, knock her up, and buy a house with a picket fence. Whatever.

    If I get fired from my job I’ll just smile and start ripping the copper out of the walls and selling everything made out of metal to the scrapman and call it a day. Wifey’s biological clock was ticking and our crappy apartment was no place for a kid. My wife and I were not comfortable having kids there and now I have two great kids I’m proud of. Plus my brother-in-law gave me a kegerator when he moved to California. No way would she have let me cram that thing into our apartment. Winning!

  85. Juice Box says:

    re # 87 – 3B and yet the frogs and the rest of Europe love Pres O and his handling of global affairs his approval ratings are something like 75%..

  86. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [82] seif,

    BTW, Walmart down over 3% today alone. When you add in yesterday, I think that is around 6% the last two days.

  87. gary says:

    “You took your first pinch like a man and you learn two great things in your life. Look at me, never rat on your friends and always keep your mouth shut.”

  88. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [86] seif,

    Point taken. I go by what I hear, which was an expression that wmt is getting punished.

  89. 3b says:

    #91 Juice: The Irish love him too!! They think he is brilliant!!!

  90. Anon E. Moose says:

    Brian [90];

    Foresight can be 20/20 too. I finished school in 2005 within 10 days of my first kid being born, and got a nice bump at my job because of it — economy booming.

    Would have been the prefect time to buy a house if not for the bubble — all the Locust Generation selling their POS cape on 50×100 to someone else’s kids for $650k.

    Hey Nom, they want to means test SS? If it doesn’t include assets and focuses solely on income I’ll be right there on the baracades next to Meat.

  91. Brian says:

    Moose –

    I graduated in 2008. Night school. So I hadn’t taken any business courses until after I’d bought a house. I had no idea what the hell was happening anyway.

  92. Jill says:

    3b #20: That is absolutely not true. You might as well say that ALL Gen-Xers are whiners and ALL Gen-Yers are slackers. I don’t do that, why do YOU brand all boomers with the same brush?

  93. x-everything says:

    Brass 85,
    I totally agree with you but renting a 1-br is not the same as living in a $500k house…more like buying a $150k place. Don’t forget you have to pay utilities on a rental as well
    I doubt there’s too many people that bought in 2005 to 2008 that don’t wish they hadn’t…unless they sold their old place for big paper profits and put it back into the new place.

  94. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    This is the ridiculuosness fo the world

    http://news.yahoo.com/does-asteroid-mining-violate-space-law-185201703.html

    If somebody wants to spend a fortune on the chance of a lifetime who owns want should not be in doubt. Assume the risk, reap the reward or the whirlwind. I swear there are those who miss the good old days of feudal serfdom and would love for all of us to go back to the dark ages to lord over.

  95. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Jill because for the most part your generation fits the stereotype as grasshoppers and locusts. not to say you are. I could introduce you to exhibits A and B. My mother and her brother, both of whom voted for Chairman O, thinking he was the black Kennedy who would restore justice to the world. Mean savings between both; two nickels to rub together, each possessing one of them. One future and one current entitlement recipients who will bankrupt their own grandchildren because they wanted to maintain their eternal childhoods. At the age of 11 I was the adult in my house, had boatloads of friends who were in the same situation, that is among the myriad of reasons why I paint boomers with a broad brush because the paint is often the same color. Though those of you who go against the grain tend to be spectacularly insightful and I enjoy your company immensely.

  96. daddyo says:

    Nom – I’m considering going…I really want to try the Kane Head High IPA…

  97. seif says:

    yes, WMT down yesterday too. my bad.

  98. Shore Guy says:

    What we have ceased to be able to do as a society, so it seems, is to differentiate between needs and wants. Most of us may need cars, we don’t need Bentleys.

  99. JJ says:

    Sadly my life expectancy is not forever. My next home is an investment property, retirement home or vacation home. The numbers never work out for the trade up house as the RE taxes are such a killer and selling bonds gives me a huge hit on interest income and lots of capital gains and there is so much cost involved in buying and selling.

    I need to spend 1.1 million for a decent home, 100K to fix it up. That is bare minimum. If you want to move to a better neighborhood with a better commute and a home that is a trade up to boot that is the cost. Current home is almost free but a dump. I am trapped similar to when I had a dumpy small horrible rent controlled apt. I would never move cause it was so cheap. It freed up so much money for Hamptons, dinners, fun and savings. I used to joke I could afford a good apt I just cant afford a good apt and going out.

  100. Shore Guy says:

    Not that I would turn down a Mulsanne.

  101. 3b says:

    #99 Jill: I am a tail end boomer, and I don’t mean everybody in that generation, you, me, my spouse, and a small group of others that I know, including some family members do not reflect that mentality. But honestly from what I have seen and heard over the years, (unscientifically of course) I have come to the conclussion that most boomers do not care about the next generation.

    They are self absorbed, self important, whiners, and many of them are totally clueless. And it knows no political bounds, repub democrat. No difference, from what I have seen and heard. When I talk about the next generation and our children etc, the legacy we leave for them. It is a shrug and a who cares. It is all about them. They are either in therapy, were in therapy, on various therapy drugs, or in between drugs. They are on a never ending quest to find out who they are, and what it all means, everything is angst and moaning and groaning, and on and on it goes. As a group I just don’t like them.

  102. JJ says:

    No one needs a car. I drive on average 300 miles a year. I say 280 of those miles I could walk or take wife car. My wife drives 1,000 miles a year I would say 700 of them she could walk. Cars are a minor expense if you drive rarely as they dont use much gas and rarely break and last 20-30 years.

    I take train to work, take train to games and take cab to airport when I go on vacation. Other than errands and BS I dont really need it.

    You say you live near nothing, well that was your choice. Plenty of houses with things walking distance. If you did not have a car you would have bought in town or near train.
    Shore Guy says:
    April 24, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    What we have ceased to be able to do as a society, so it seems, is to differentiate between needs and wants. Most of us may need cars, we don’t need Bentleys.

  103. JJ says:

    Jill has a smoking hot body and her husband is unemployed. They read 57 shades of grey every night and it keeps them very busy. She has no time to be self absorbed.

    3b says:
    April 24, 2012 at 4:16 pm

    #99 Jill: I am a tail end boomer, and I don’t mean everybody in that generation, you, me, my spouse, and a small group of others that I know, including some family members do not reflect that mentality. But honestly from what I have seen and heard over the years, (unscientifically of course) I have come to the conclussion that most boomers do not care about the next generation.

    They are self absorbed, self important, whiners, and many of them are totally clueless. And it knows no political bounds, repub democrat. No difference, from what I have seen and heard. When I talk about the next generation and our children etc, the legacy we leave for them. It is a shrug and a who cares. It is all about them. They are either in therapy, were in therapy, on various therapy drugs, or in between drugs. They are on a never ending quest to find out who they are, and what it all means, everything is angst and moaning and groaning, and on and on it goes. As a group I just don’t like them.

  104. 3b says:

    Juice: from your earlier post. You are assuming all of these people know they now have to co-sign the loans!!!

  105. Shore Guy says:

    “They are self absorbed, self important, whiners, and many of them are totally clueless. ”

    Yea, but, like, what does this have to do with me? Tell me. Tell me. Tell me. Now. I mean it. Kneel down now and tell me what this means for me and the rest of this generation that changed the world like no other before it.

  106. freedy says:

    apple sells 35 million iphones . does every real estate agent in NJ have one ?

  107. Juice Box says:

    Boomers? Meh they can just charge their retirement on their credit cards since very few of them have any actual savings.

  108. Juice Box says:

    re: #113 – 3B – they are calling the loans financial aid.

    From Bloomberg today..

    Students Confounded as Colleges Offer $42,000 in Debt

    Susan Romano read her son Zach’s financial-aid letter from Drexel University, and her eyes jumped to the line highlighted in yellow: “$13,442 expected payment” for the first year at the $63,000-a-year school.

    “At first, I thought it was great,” said Romano, 48, an insurance claims representative from Huntington, Pennsylvania. “The more I read it over and over, the worse it got.”

    It turned out the college’s “offered financial aid” included $42,000 in loans to be taken out by the family, including a “suggested” $36,178 in parental borrowing or private loans.

    “A loan to me is not financial aid,” Romano said. “It is money I have to pay.”

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-24/colleges-confuse-students-with-letters-offering-aid-that-s-debt.html

  109. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    63K to go to Drexel? WTF!! all enrolling freshmen should really f*ck the entire industry and go to community college for two years. the univeristies two years of lost income would be glorious, alas it would never happen

  110. joyce says:

    110

    JJ
    how many people work in NYC compared to how many currently live there?

  111. Shore Guy says:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/24/opinion/brooks-the-creative-monopoly.html?_r=1&ref=davidbrooks

    The Creative Monopoly

    By DAVID BROOKS

    As a young man, Peter Thiel competed to get into Stanford. Then he competed to get into Stanford Law School. Then he competed to become a clerk for a federal judge. Thiel won all those competitions. But then he competed to get a Supreme Court clerkship.

    Thiel lost that one. So instead of being a clerk, he went out and founded PayPal. Then he became an early investor in Facebook and many other celebrated technology firms. Somebody later asked him. “So, aren’t you glad you didn’t get that Supreme Court clerkship?”

    The question got Thiel thinking. His thoughts are now incorporated into a course he is teaching in the Stanford Computer Science Department. (A student named Blake Masters posted outstanding notes online, and Thiel has confirmed their accuracy.)

    One of his core points is that we tend to confuse capitalism with competition. We tend to think that whoever competes best comes out ahead. In the race to be more competitive, we sometimes confuse what is hard with what is valuable. The intensity of competition becomes a proxy for value.

    snip

  112. Shore Guy says:

    The population of Manhattan is somewhere between 1.5 million and 1.6 million.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    Stats on the population of Manhattan, the number of jobs, and the number of visitors, from NYU:

    http://wagner.nyu.edu/blog/rudincenter/dynamic_population/

  114. joyce says:

    Shore,

    Am I reading this correctly? 1.6MM+ workers commute into Manhattan every weekday (and that’s just the workers who commute in), and only 1.5-1.6MM people live there full-time (the already most densely populated city in the country).

    JJ,
    Are they building any more land in there?

  115. Daddyo says:

    Sitting at the Office now drinking a Kane sampler with 2 soccer games on tv. Can’t beat that, except the two nutcases talking next to me.

    Thumbs up on the imperial ipa and stout.

  116. Fabius Maximus says:

    #125 Daddyo

    I recommend the Chelsea Barcelona match.

  117. chicagofinance says:

    Just checked out the website….. $63K is all-in….tuition is $34K….still sucks, but I was going to fcuking lose it on them……..

    Painhrtz – I ain’t dead yet says:
    April 24, 2012 at 5:04 pm
    63K to go to Drexel? WTF!! all enrolling freshmen should really f*ck the entire industry and go to community college for two years. the univeristies two years of lost income would be glorious, alas it would never happen

  118. A.West says:

    Lib (60)
    Yes, modern portfolio theory is wrong, and it’s inventors got Nobel Prize to prove it, right along with Al Gore, Krugman. and Obama for their massive contributions to popular world delusions.

    The assumptions underlying modern portfolio theory don’t hold,and the evidence doesn’t match its predictions. Yet it’s taught to every finance student.

    I read one of Haugen’s books during my Level 2 CFA readings. That was one of the most significant things that I learned in the program. Currently, I’d recommend Eric Falkenstein’s book “Finding Alpha” but I know you’re cheap. So his free online AV presentations on finance as well as his paper on SSRN are worth investigating instead.

    I actually think you’d like these, btw. Anybody who thinks seriously about investing should.

  119. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [120] fabius

    &%$#@ crossbar.

  120. I can’t believe it costs 63K/year to go to a prison like Drexel.

  121. If I went to Drexel, I’d never even walk near Penn.

    Like East Berlin/West Berlin.

  122. Anon E. Moose says:

    Meat [125];

    UPenn tolerates Drexel only because they are generally non-threatening; an expendable trip wire; and cover UPenn’s north flank.

    Drexel picked a hell of a time to open a law school (2006). I couldn’t imagine what it would be like to graduate into a thoroughly saturated market with a degree from a nascent unproven school with zero alumni base to lean on.

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