Pending home sales disappoint, but still up strongly over last year

From the WSJ:

Behind the Numbers: Pending Sales Drop

The number of U.S. home buyers who signed contracts to buy existing homes unexpectedly fell in April to the lowest level in four months. The news is a setback for the residential market, but not enough to raise alarms that the nascent housing recovery is stalling.

The National Association of Realtors, the sector’s main trade group, said Wednesday its seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes decreased 5.5% on a monthly basis to 95.5, the weakest showing since December. The results, however, were 14.4% above the same month a year earlier.

“Home contract activity has been above year-ago levels now for 12 consecutive months,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ ever-optimistic chief economist, said in the report. “The housing recovery momentum continues.”

Pending sales fell in three out four U.S. regions in April compared with a month earlier. They tumbled 12% in the West, 6.8% in the South and 0.3% in the Midwest. They inched up 0.9% in the Northeast.

Despite the decline, recent data show the housing market is starting to get back on track after a collapse in prices that began nearly six years ago, though the market remains under severe distress in some parts of the country. (Today, we detail how Atlanta remains in pain.)

Here’s what industry watchers had to say:

Peter Newland, economist, Barclays Research: “This likely reflects payback following three months of solid gains, in particular the 3.8% jump in March.”

Stephen East, builder analyst, ISI Homebuilding Research: “We believe shrinking inventory is responsible in large part for weakness in today’s … metric. Conversely, lower existing inventories are a positive for new home sales.”

Dan Oppenheim, builder analyst, Credit Suisse: “We think the tight supply of distress in some key markets is holding back sales (the West fell a sharp 12% and the South fell 6.8%, both of which have many foreclosure-heavy markets).”

From Bloomberg:

Pending Sales of U.S. Homes Decrease by Most in a Year

The number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes fell in April by the most in a year, indicating the U.S. housing recovery remains uneven.

The index of pending home resales dropped 5.5 percent following a revised 3.8 percent gain the prior month, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 42 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for no change in the measure.

“The pattern of demand is sluggish and volatile,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, a U.S. economist at BNP Paribas in New York, who projected a decline. “Until the supply issue is resolved, we could see further declines in prices and the housing market will continue to hover around the bottom. It’ll be a gradual improvement, we don’t expect anything stronger than that.”

Three of four regions saw a decrease, today’s report showed. That included a 12 percent slump in the West and a 6.8 percent decline in the South. Pending purchases rose in the Northeast.

Compared with a year earlier, the index climbed 14.7 percent after a 10.5 percent gain in the prior 12-month period.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

197 Responses to Pending home sales disappoint, but still up strongly over last year

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Home prices are about more than housing

    Measures of home prices have become as numerous as dandelions in the lawn of a foreclosed home.

    The National Association of Realtors, real-estate websites CoreLogic and Trulia, and government agencies like the Federal Housing Finance Agency and the Commerce Department all report indexes covering real-estate values.

    The best known, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, reported Tuesday that home prices nationally fell 2.0% in the first quarter.

    The S&P report warned home prices haven’t yet turned the corner, although other measures, including the CoreLogic measure, show prices have bottomed out. (That’s especially true when distressed sales, which tend to be made at a steep discount, are excluded from the mix.)

    According to Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia, the indexes differ in three major ways: the mix of homes listed and sold, seasonal adjustments, and the weighting of different homes and metro areas.

    While each methodology has its merits, the end result, says Kolko, is that the indexes can disagree by as much as 10 percentage points.

    Getting the trend in home prices correct matters because stable prices would signal demand and supply of houses are falling into balance. Clearing out the overhang of unsold homes is a prerequisite for a sustained pickup in building activity.

    Stable prices also feed into the housing recovery because buyers are less likely to run into appraisal problems and banks will be more willing to make mortgages.

    Looking beyond housing, the Federal Reserve will have more maneuvering room if home prices have indeed stabilized. That’s not just because a pickup in construction will help overall economic growth and construction hiring, but also because home values matter greatly to household wealth.

    The Fed uses the CoreLogic index to value real estate in its flow of funds tables. Using regressions, economists at Deutsche Bank calculate the 0.8% increase in prices reported by CoreLogic for the first quarter implies a $200 billion gain in home values. (The Fed data will be reported June 7.)

  3. grim says:

    From the WSJ:

    RealtyTrac: Foreclosures Account For 26% Of 1Q US Home Sales

    Sales of U.S. homes owned by banks or in some stage of foreclosure accounted for a slightly larger share of total home sales in the first quarter compared with the same period a year earlier, according to market researcher RealtyTrac.

    Residential properties linked to foreclosure–either in default, scheduled for auction or bank-owned–represented 26% of all home sales in the latest quarter, up from 25% a year earlier and 22% in the fourth quarter. Bank-owned homes are also referred to as real-estate-owned, or REO, properties.

    “Foreclosure-related sales picked up in the first quarter, particularly preforeclosure sales where a distressed homeowner is selling to avoid foreclosure–typically via short sale,” said RealtyTrac Chief Executive Brandon Moore. “Those preforeclosure sales hit a three-year high in the first quarter even as the average preforeclosure sales price dropped to a record low for our report. Lenders are approving more aggressively priced short sales, which in turn is resulting in more successful short-sale transactions.”

    The firm also reported the sale price of a foreclosed property averaged $161,214 in the first quarter, down 2% from a year earlier and a decline of 1% from the prior quarter.

    That average sales price was 27% below the average sales price of homes not in foreclosure or not bank-owned during the quarter–matching a 27% foreclosure discount in the previous quarter but down from a 29% foreclosure discount in the first quarter of 2011.

    “Meanwhile the average price of a bank-owned home is stabilizing and even increasing in some areas where a slowdown in REO activity over the past year has resulted in a restricted supply of REO homes available,” Moore continued. “Still, REO sales did increase on a quarterly basis in 21 states, indicating that lenders are still working through a bottleneck of unsold REO inventory in many areas.”

    Preforeclosure sales jumped 25% from a year earlier and increased 16% from the previous quarter.

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    Foreclosures level off in early 2012: CoreLogic

    The inventory of homes in foreclosure has leveled off in the first four months of the year, according to a report from data firm CoreLogic Inc. released on Wednesday. The number of homes in the foreclosure inventory stood at 1.4 million at the end of April, compared to 1.5 million in April 2011 and 1.4 million in March. This represents 3.4% of all homes with a mortgage. “The inventory of homes in foreclosure in judicial foreclosure states is growing, but this increase is being more than offset by declining inventories in non-judicial states where the processing timelines to clear a foreclosure are shorter,” said Anand Nallathambi, chief executive officer of CoreLogic. In judicial states, lenders must provide evidence to a court of delinquency in order to move a borrower into foreclosure. There were 66,000 completed foreclosures in April, compared to 78,000 in the same month one year ago. Since the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.6 million completed foreclosures across the country.

  5. grim says:

    From the Real Deal Blog:

    New York, New Jersey foreclosures continue to climb

    While there was a year-over-year decline in completed foreclosures across the nation, New York and New Jersey again ranked among the five states with the highest foreclosure inventory rate in April 2012, according to data released today by CoreLogic. In fact, the foreclosure inventory rates in both New York and New Jersey increased slightly month-over-month.

    Foreclosure inventory rate is the foreclosure inventory as a percentage of all mortgaged homes. Many have speculated that the number of foreclosed properties is growing in New York because of a large backlog of distressed properties created by the state’s slow judicial process.

    New York’s foreclosure inventory rate now comes in at an even 5.0 percent, as opposed to last month’s 4.9 percent, which ties the state with Nevada for the fourth highest rate in the nation. New York’s foreclosure inventory rate gained 0.9 percent in percent point change since April 2011. There were a total of 3,524 completed foreclosures in the state for the year ending April 2012.

    Florida came in with the highest foreclosure inventory last month at 12 percent, followed by New Jersey at 6.7 percent. Illinois took third place at 5.3 percent.

    In the New York City-White Plains, N.Y.-Wayne, N.J. region, CoreLogic tallied a 5.6 percent foreclosure inventory rate, which marks a slight increase from last month’s 5.5 percent count. April’s percentage shows a 0.5 percent year-over-year percent point change increase. In total, there were 855 completed foreclosures in the metropolitan area year-over-year, up from last month’s sum of 838.

  6. Jill says:

    JJ #135 from yesterday (reply below quote):

    “First most banks will not do a mortgage for under 100K are you sure they will do it for 90K?
    Second why do you care what your credit score is if you are not buying anything soon.
    Third so if you have seven years left on mortgage and you are paying 2.875% therefore 2.875% is the “risk-free” rate. Unless you have an investment that is almost risk free, treasuries, AAA munis/investment grade bonds that is paying in excess of 2.875% refinancing accomplishes nothing. I know people near me who refinanced at 3% and have their money sitting in savings at 1/2 of 1%. Finally, paying off the house is the biggest protector of losing your job.”

    The issue is not where I put the money instead, because I plan to put the money back into principal. For example: If my current payment is $1500 at the 4.75 mortgage (it isn’t) and my new payment would be $750 @ 2.875 (it wouldn’t), I’d still pay the $1500 and put the additional $750 towards principal. The real reason for doing this is a hedge against job loss. We could pay the theoretical $750 with a substantial income cut or in the event of emergency and still keep up with the payments (something we could not do now). My biggest concern is if extending the mortgage period at age 57 would be a red flag of current financial problems to the credit agencies (there aren’t any problems at present).

  7. grim says:

    6 – That house is 4,100 square feet on 2.6 acres. Probably closer to 5,000 square feet once you include the basement. Are the taxes really a surprise?

    The price is more of a surprise to me, purchased in 2004 for $667,500, now listed at $459,000, wow!

  8. grim says:

    My biggest concern is if extending the mortgage period at age 57 would be a red flag of current financial problems to the credit agencies (there aren’t any problems at present).

    No – This would be considered age discrimination.

  9. I wouldn’t touch a house in Sparta with 16K in taxes until the price hits 299K.

  10. freedy says:

    Hey taxes can be appealed. LOL

  11. Mittens says:

    I wouldn’t touch a house in Sparta…ever.

  12. reinvestor101 says:

    Looks like Romney’s polling is up among women. Appearances with Trump helped him with women as they love The Donald. (By the same token I can’t imagine any woman liking that damn wuss George Will). I still have my suspicious of Romney until he establishes some T-Party bona fides and no, taking a few damn pictures with Trump ain’t gonna get it. He needs to do more and that begins by talking about the T-party. The damn liberal media is conspiring against us and won’t talk about the T-Party anymore. There was a time when our dam party was in the news every damn day and T-Party darlings like our dear Sarah Palin was constantly in the news, but today they stopped reporting on us. That’s bullspit and it’s like they’re trying to keep us at arm’s length. No, we’re not having that. The T-Party will have to be embraced in full damn daylight by Romney if he wants our support. You ain’t going to treat us like some floosey that you want to get under the damn covers with but pretend you don’t know us in public.

  13. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I remember watching an interview with Peter Fonda, 20+ years ago. Something he said stuck with me then and rings truer and truer with every passing year. Went something like this:

    “I live on my boat. I like living on my boat because I own my boat. A lot of people think they own their house but just stop paying your taxes for a while and you’ll find out who really owns your house.”

  14. Brian says:

    There’s a chance taxes in Sparta will get worse too. They just finished spending all sorts of money on the High School and whoops, it looks like they wrecked all of the athletic fields during the construction process and our track is like old and stuff so um yeah we’re going to need to issue some more bonds and increase everybodys taxes again to pay for it. And you know we’re Sparta so we can’t possibly play sports on that icky grass stuff so it must be state of the art artifical turf and fields and new bleachers with a press box because everyone is sooooooo interested in what is happening with Sparta High School sports teams. Voters have been holding the line but local government doesn’t seem to get the message. Quotes from local officials on the subject after the increased spending was voted down went something like “we’re going to have to find another way to do this” …..translation, we’ll just jam the additional spending down everybody’s throats who cares that voters don’t want it.

    6.freedy says:
    May 31, 2012 at 6:51 am
    http://www.coldwellbankermoves.com/property/details/2888983/MLS-2919706/3-Oak-Hollow-Ln-Sparta-Township-NJ-07871.aspx

    Bank owned . Nice house until you look at the taxes .

  15. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How much would a nice house in a blue-ribbony NJ train town cost if they had a special deal where you could pay all of your property taxes up front in one lump sum, no more taxes ever as long as you owned the property. $5 million? $10 million?

  16. 1987 Condo buyer says:

    #8…for sure, people on this board have pretty high end taste, I guess! A basic ranch in Wayne or Cedar Grove on a quarter acre, I guess, just won’t due!

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Back in the late 80’s I was *sure* that Sussex county was going to be *the* place to live. I used to refer to it as the sleeping giant. They were removing all the inefficient traffic circles on Route 23, I was sure that Route 23 would shortly be the next route 80 and Vernon to Wayne would be quick 20 minute drive. I was wrong about the 20 minute drive part but I imagine Route 23 is now about as fast as Route 80…west of Denville.

  18. freedy says:

    bigger is better after all that s a 4000 sq.footer

  19. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How quickly would housing prices collapse if universally we all started referring to property taxes as “rent”? “Well yes, the rent is bit high, but the schools are some of the best in the state”. “We had to override the rent cap again this year, but we needed a new fire truck and more detention space at the police station.”

  20. freedy says:

    Hows the commute from the sparta area , getting around NJ ?

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    4,000 sq ft is so 2005. I need me a quarter acre on the inside. I want my McMansion super-sized.

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [21] Commuting from Sparta is a breeze…providing your job is in Lake Mohawk.

  23. Brian says:

    Trouble is, residents that have lived there for many decades continue to kill good infrastructure projects that would bring growth. Because they don’t want growth…they don’t want change.

    I remember years ago a proposal to build an NJTransit train station in Sparta using existing funtioning rail lines that were in use by freight trains….Killed

    And more recently, the Federally funded $25million project to expand Newton-Sparta road, the busiest road in the county and the gateway off Route 15 to Newton, Sparta, and Andover….Killed.

    Thankfully, they are moving forward with the new NJTransit stations in Andover usint the old Lackawanna Cutoff right of way, and they’re laying track, but parts of the project are still not approved so, the Nimby’s could still cause trouble and kill that one.

    18.The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 31, 2012 at 8:08 am
    Back in the late 80′s I was *sure* that Sussex county was going to be *the* place to live. I used to refer to it as the sleeping giant. They were removing all the inefficient traffic circles on Route 23, I was sure that Route 23 would shortly be the next route 80 and Vernon to Wayne would be quick 20 minute drive. I was wrong about the 20 minute drive part but I imagine Route 23 is now about as fast as Route 80…west of Denville.

  24. All Hype says:

    “I wouldn’t touch a house in Sparta with 16K in taxes until the price hits 299K.”

    By that time Sparta will be another “hood in the woods” and that house will be a 3 family crap shack.

  25. 3B says:

    #2 because home values matter greatly to household wealth.

    I would write it a little differetnly. Because home values matter greatly to the illiusion of household wealth.

  26. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [24] I don’t expect the Lackawanna cutoff will ever run again in our working lives, but it would be cool. I can’t believe that the state was smart enough to jump in and nix the sale of the Pequest fill and bought it to prevent further attempts. Private developers wanted to buy it because it was high quality, yep, fill. They were going to rip it down just to use the dirt elsewhere.

  27. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    the thing that strikes me is Sparta is nice but who in there right mind would want to pay taxes approximate to a new Hyundai each year for the priveledge of sitting in utter misery each morning/evening to get to work/home.

    Seriously this state is f*cked since we all accept it and nothing ever changes

  28. gary says:

    Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ ever-optimistic chief economist, said, “The housing recovery momentum continues.”

    1/3 of sales that consist of capitulation and distress is not a recovery. It’s the result of backwash and sewerage. We’re not close to being done. Don’t believe me? Here’s what Barry Ritholtz had to say TODAY:

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

  29. Brian says:

    To NYC it can be rough but doable. Options are take the bus…there are a few park and rides, I think Lakeland Bus still serves those lines, or drive in to NYC. Many people don’t work in NYC, they work in businesses in other parts of NJ and drive to Morris, Somerset, Bergen, Passaic, Hudson counties etc. My father did the commute to Rockafeller center for many years, many nights he was not home until 8PM. I don’t understand how he did it but he still found time to coach mine and my brothers sports teams, play in the local softball leage, constantly fix up the house, help maintain the local Lake Mohawk Beach and organize parties there, etc.

    21.freedy says:
    May 31, 2012 at 8:23 am
    Hows the commute from the sparta area , getting around NJ ?

  30. Neanderthal Economist says:

    Where did all the gold bugs go?

  31. gary says:

    Scroll down to the bottom of the Ritholtz article and notice the dozens of links and references.

    Any questions?

  32. Brian says:

    I call bottom :)

    32.gary says:
    May 31, 2012 at 8:45 am
    Scroll down to the bottom of the Ritholtz article and notice the dozens of links and references.

    Any questions?

  33. gary says:

    Spring has sprung, and the usual suspects are up to their old tricks. There are so many bad PWBC (Perenially Wrong Bottom Callers) that it is really difficult to make special mention of anyone, but we are compelled to point out two PWBC in particular: Alan Greenspan, who was wrong early and often, and the National Association of Realtors, whose spin has been astoundingly consistent, bullish and wrong, the whole way down. – Barry Ritholtz

  34. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [31] Nean – I’ll pay 1% over spot, are you selling?

  35. x-everything says:

    15.Brian says:
    There’s a chance taxes in Sparta will get worse too

    Sparta/Lake Mohawk is the poster child for real estate crash in NJ. Prices there right now are 50% off peak…lots of bagholders drowning their sorrows at Kroghs

  36. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Freedy 21 What’s your daily? That is the key, off peak times you can get on 80 in no time commuting is another matter. Depends on where your family is or places you frequent in NJ are.

  37. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Another “bottom”, O bother.

  38. 3B says:

    First time claims up, highest in 5 weeks, prior claims revised up. ADP employment number is lets call it lackluster, but don’t worry, housing is reaching a bottom

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-to-383000-2012-05-31?dist=beforebell

  39. Brian says:

    I hope it turns around at least a little bit. A couple looked at my mother’s house in Lake Mohawk this weekend and the real estate agent swears this time she really thinks they’ll put in an offer. We’ll see. The only offers so far were with contingencies to sell their own underwater krapshacks at unrealistic prices so, they really weren’t worth the paper they were written on.

    36.x-everything says:
    May 31, 2012 at 8:55 am
    15.Brian says:
    There’s a chance taxes in Sparta will get worse too

    Sparta/Lake Mohawk is the poster child for real estate crash in NJ. Prices there right now are 50% off peak…lots of bagholders drowning their sorrows at Kroghs

  40. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I consider myself hyper-vigilant when it comes to the global economy, but even I’m getting complacent. In recent weeks I’ve entirely forgotten to check which banks the FDIC has failed on Friday nights and I might go three whole days without reading Zero Hedge. Some days it’s already lunch time and I haven’t even checked how the stock market has opened. I think this may be a signal that something big is about to happen.

  41. 3B says:

    Jill thanks for your comments and insights yesterday on WT; we may end up there if the Hillsdale option does not work.

  42. JJ says:

    I get the short sale/foreclosure list weekly from a realtor near me on an excel spreadsheet.

    Last two weeks I see towns like Cold Spring Harbor, Laurel Hollow and Muttontown appearing. The super rich towns. I saw two short sales on same block in muttowntown.

    One just came up owner bought in 1997 for 775K and just listed it as a short sale for 1.3 million. Property Shark gives me his name and business, guess what he is President of a Mortgage Brokerage Firm.

    Almost as good as the REO in Laurel Hollow that owner went BK on and bank sold a few weeks ago as an REO. Huge house on 2.5 acres, 4,000 square feet. That guy gives seminars on how to make money in real estate.

    Funny Stuff. Mortgage Brokers/Realtors drank the Kool Aid themselves.

  43. JJ says:

    Better safe than sorry, you dont want to end up working the hot dog truck out on Baldwin Long Island.

    Jill says:
    May 31, 2012 at 6:55 am
    JJ #135 from yesterday (reply below quote):

    “First most banks will not do a mortgage for under 100K are you sure they will do it for 90K?
    Second why do you care what your credit score is if you are not buying anything soon.
    Third so if you have seven years left on mortgage and you are paying 2.875% therefore 2.875% is the “risk-free” rate. Unless you have an investment that is almost risk free, treasuries, AAA munis/investment grade bonds that is paying in excess of 2.875% refinancing accomplishes nothing. I know people near me who refinanced at 3% and have their money sitting in savings at 1/2 of 1%. Finally, paying off the house is the biggest protector of losing your job.”

  44. gary says:

    I’ve said it before: the price of the house will eventually become secondary to the increasing level of shakedown taxes required to fund the public sector pension obligations. The payment schedule will become reversed. A house in our area will no longer be considered an asset, an investment vehicle nor an inflation hedge. Within the next decade, you’ll see prices for 4/2.5 CHCs in blue ribbon, train towns in the 300K range but the taxes will be 25K plus as the norm.

  45. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    I know someone who’s wife is a realtor and they live in a Swanky MA town in what should be a million dollar house. I checked the property records to see how well or poorly they bought/leveraged. No tax records for their house, couldn’t find a thing. All of their neighbors records were there, but nothing from their house. Looks like they sold an $800K house in the same town at the top of the market and bought this one, but I couldn’t find a thing. A little more digging and I found out why. Their house used to be a parsonage for a church and is still owned by the church. They sold at the top and are renting.

    Funny Stuff. Mortgage Brokers/Realtors drank the Kool Aid themselves.

  46. gary says:

    “We’re past the rock bottom of the down cycle for real estate and now we’re moving into recovery mode.”

    – Realty Times (April 14, 2009)

  47. gary says:

    “Housing starts in the U.S. rose in January to a higher level than anticipated, a sign that government support is helping to stabilize the real estate market.”

    – Bloomberg (February 17, 2010)

  48. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [43];

    Funny Stuff. Mortgage Brokers/Realtors drank the Kool Aid themselves.

    Even the drug dealers know the problems that come from getting high on their own supply.

  49. Brian says:

    JJ, what do you think of RIMM? Blood in the streets moment yet or is it a total dog?

    128.JJ says:
    May 29, 2012 at 4:15 pm
    Whats up with RIM, Research in Motion, they halted trading, some big announcement, are they going BK or getting bought?

  50. 30 year realtor says:

    I’ve got a couple of low priced listings in run of the mill Bergen County towns that are getting a lot of showings. Both properties have offers and will likely be under contract by early next week. Supporting comps for these homes closed at higher prices than the current offers.

    The slow leak continues. No signs of prices firming up. Buyers continue to express that they believe prices will continue to fall slowly. Housing recovery? Where?

  51. gary says:

    30 year,

    Always good to hear news from the front line!!

  52. Libtard in the City says:

    Rimm??? ha ha ha. Are you into S&M?

  53. gary says:

    “The good news is that a home price bottom is expected by year-end, according to one of the nation’s most respected economists.”

    – The Truth About Mortage (February 9, 2009)

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [51] 30y – thanks for the update. Pearls like that are why NJReR is my most refreshed site.

  55. gary says:

    Jobless claims rise for 4th straight week

    But, we’re insulated. Right? Right? I said, right?

  56. 3B says:

    #45 gary: Within the next decade, you are being too kind, I think you are seeing it now!! Look at the below listings. The first one nice house, nice block offered at 355K with 12K a year in taxes.If this sells at around 325K, that price will be firmly in 2001/02 price range. The second one a little more dated, still 4 beds 2.5 baths , family room, beautiful block but again with 12k year taxes. This one is now down to 375K, and still rotting, I mean sitting. If it sells at 350k, again it will be in 2001/02 price territory.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1219678&dayssince=&countysearch=false

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1207910&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  57. 3B says:

    #51 30 year: Thank you for being honest, you could have just as easily have taken the other road.

  58. seif says:

    I posted late last night:

    27 homes “Under Contract” in Tenafly out of the bunch I follow there.
    Most in the $300K – $650K range are languishing. Everything in $650K-$850K going.

  59. Juice Box says:

    Brian, RIMM has more sales than FB and a billion a year in profits with perhaps 2 billion on the balance sheet in cash. They are not out of business yet. What they need to do is get their new rookie lineup out on the field and producing.

    Too many misteps for them over the last 4 years. I was at a RIMM show on Wall St a few years back and they had Tiki Barber speak after his retirement. I asked Tiki if he would ever unretire and he said no way. That night the CEO of RIMM was walking around with a half dozen hot assistants in tight skirts and high heels who held clipboards and kept everyone else at bay. Well this was around the time the iPhone came out and Android was in development, and the RIMM CEO seemed more interested in chasing tail than playing the game.

    The Blackberry Smartphone practically became the Tiki Barber of smartphones that night. It used to be a great player a few years ago, but now it’s having a hard time finding any kind of work. There is still hope for Blackberry but it revolves on the management getting canned and cleaning house.

  60. Mike says:

    Gary, 47,48 & 54 Thanks for the trip down memory lane!

  61. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    Juice you also forgot chasing his dream of owning a NHL hockey team .Basillie could have been CEO of kodak with his head in the sand view of his product line

  62. Libtard in the City says:

    CBOE Interest Rate 10-Year T-No (^TNX)
    -Chicago Options

    1.60 Down 0.03(1.54%) 9:42AM EDT
    Add to Portfolio
    Prev Close: 1.63
    Open: 1.62
    Day’s Range: 1.59 – 1.62
    52wk Range: 1.62 – 3.22

  63. JJ says:

    FB
    USD Facebook Inc
    Last [Tick] $27.42[-]

    rip your face off book

  64. seif says:

    64 – any relation to EatYourFaceOffBook in Miami?

    personally i prefer MeltUrFaceBook

  65. JJ says:

    Rimm has three four choices:

    Blackberry 10 is hit!! Yeaa
    Stop selling Smartphones and focus on providing RIMM technology to other smartphone makers!! Yeaa
    Slow Bleed out as a patent whore like Kodak, Boo!!!
    Go belly up in a BK, Boooo!!!!

    If you want to roll dice buy a long dated call that is out of the money for like $500 bucks, be prepared to lose $500 bucks, plus a tax write off.

    rare stock where the option makes more sense than the stock. Also I heard from a trader at Chase last night that some traders are getting interested in long dated facebook calls at a strike of $65, going for practically nothing. They think FB will either be next Apple or Google or go bankrupt. Worth throwing $500 bucks at the long dated call. Even if it moves back to $43 calls will move a huge amount.

    Brian says:
    May 31, 2012 at 9:26 am

    JJ, what do you think of RIMM? Blood in the streets moment yet or is it a total dog?

    128.JJ says:
    May 29, 2012 at 4:15 pm
    Whats up with RIM, Research in Motion, they halted trading, some big announcement, are they going BK or getting bought?

  66. Richard says:

    I Quite like this house (despite some of the colors):
    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/623-Ridgewood-Rd-Maplewood-NJ-07040/52632691_zpid/

    Has a tax problem though, 4% of asking price every year, more than mortgage interest. Ouch

  67. JJ says:

    1.57 on ten year bond. WOW

    Lots of people will be re-re-re-refinancing this weekend.

  68. seif says:

    67 – great house! lots of character (after you change that wallpaper in the kitchen)…but holy sh*t on the taxes.

  69. Shore Guy says:

    May 10, 2012
    Policy Analysis no. 696

    Questioning Homeownership as a Public Policy Goal

    by Morris A. Davis

    Morris A. Davis is academic director of the James A. Graaskamp Center for Real Estate and associate professor in the Department of Real Estate and Urban Land Economics at the University of Wisconsin—Madison, School of Business.

    For decades U.S. housing policy has focused on promoting homeownership. In this study, I show that the set of policies designed to further homeownership has been ineffective and expensive and that homeownership as a public policy goal is not well supported.

    I document that homeownership rates have remained roughly constant over the past 40 years. I then show why homeownership policies have not boosted homeownership rates. The first policy I consider, the deductibility of mortgage interest from income for tax purposes, is a tax break enjoyed by people earning above-median incomes who should otherwise have no trouble buying a home. The other key policy, the subsidization of the large mortgage entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the purposes of reducing the rate of mortgage interest, has been ineffective because Fannie and Freddie marginally affect mortgage interest rates, and mortgage interest rates are essentially uncorrelated with homeownership rates. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the present value of the cost of these two policies to U.S. taxpayers is a staggering amount, $2.5 trillion.

    Finally, I show that policymakers fail to make the case for promoting homeownership as an explicit public policy goal. I note that the costs and risks of homeownership are almost never discussed by public agencies and that the benefits of homeownership as widely articulated are either hard to measure or are quickly refutable. I conclude that U.S. housing policies and government institutions designed to promote homeownership are deeply flawed. Serious discussion should occur at the highest levels about eliminating current policies and de-emphasizing homeownership as a policy objective.

    snip

    http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/questioning-homeownership-public-policy-goal?utm_source=Cato+Institute+Emails&utm_campaign=f8d14a2d86-R_A_May_2012&utm_medium=email&mc_cid=f8d14a2d86&mc_eid=d690fed8a0

  70. Shore Guy says:

    The correct link to the entire report: http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/92296501

  71. seif says:

    BOSTON — An appeals court ruled Thursday that a law that denies a host of federal benefits to gay married couples is unconstitutional.

    lock up the kids!

  72. Juice Box says:

    re # 68 – JJ -buy now… before mortgage rates go up…..Heck buy a beach house too. The realtor I have been running around with down the Jersey Shore would eat somebody’s face off for a sale, she closed a whopping 3 deals last year.

  73. Shore Guy says:

    Should We Tax Fat?

    By John Goodman Filed under Health Alerts on May 31, 2012 with 4 comments

    There may be an argument for taxing fat; but there is no argument for taxing foods that fat people might eat.

    I shouldn’t even have to make this observation. But as I have pointed out before, when people start thinking about health policy, their IQs fall about 15 points. In what follows, put on your economics thinking cap and I will walk you through the analysis.

    If I become obese, does that create costs for you? In a rational world it wouldn’t. At the time I purchase health insurance, I would be charged an extra premium if my obesity created above-average expected health care costs. Or if I became obese after acquiring insurance, my insurer would charge me more because of that fact. Unfortunately, misguided regulations prevent premiums from reflecting real health care risks.

    Three bad things happen as a result. First, if I don’t pay a premium that reflects the full cost of my obesity, you and others will have to pay a higher premium (or higher taxes) to make up for my inadequate contribution. In economic terms, if I don’t pay the full social cost of my behavior, I will be shifting cost to others. In this way, unwise regulation creates the economist’s classic “externality.” My overeating creates external costs for others.

    Second, because I am not paying the full social cost of my own behavior I will be encouraged (financially) to become even more obese than I otherwise would be. This is a straightforward application of the law of demand. If we artificially lower the cost of obesity, there will be more of it.

    Finally, because we have created a world in which health insurance premiums are artificially too high or too low for almost everyone, people will face perverse incentives in the market for insurance. Because I am undercharged, I will over-insure, purchasing more insurance than I otherwise would. Because you are overcharged, you will under-insure, purchasing less insurance than you otherwise would. In the end, we will all have non-optimal insurance coverage.

    snip

    In a world in which my obesity creates external costs (higher premiums) for others, there is a straightforward way of “internalizing that externality,” to use another economic term. We can tax fat.

    snip

    http://healthblog.ncpa.org/should-we-tax-fat/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=HA#more-25663

  74. DBS says:

    (68) We locked in last week…should have waited a few more days!

  75. Shore Guy says:

    I don’t drink soda but, this is nanny-state nuttiness:

    New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg plans to prohibit the sale of large sodas and other sugary drinks at restaurants and other locations across the five boroughs….

    snip

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303640104577437192937949800.html?google_editors_picks=true

  76. gary says:

    When you’re paying $1250 per month in property taxes, is a 3.5%, 30 year fixed really gonna make you smile?

  77. Juice Box says:

    re #77 – what is to stop a two or even three for one sale with free refills?

    Where is SaS with his HFCS rant?

  78. DBS says:

    Gary, lol, that actually made me feel better. Tax bill will be around 718/mo, but I’m sure we will see 1250 in the not too distant future.

  79. gary says:

    Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo’s primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly.”

    – Barron’s (July 14, 2008)

  80. JJ says:

    Ten year currently measuring 1.580%, Citigroupl Pref J stock at 8.25%. Almost at Zombie Apocalypse spreads.

  81. JJ says:

    30 year treasury just hit 2.516% wow

  82. Libtard in the City says:

    JJ,

    What’s your opinion on JPM (Chase)? I’m getting itchy.

  83. Juice Box says:

    JJ – UST along for the ride and money leaves the EU.

  84. gary says:

    Asking 749K, down from 899K a few months ago. Taxes are “only” 18K and change:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3074488382-324-Werimus-Rd-Woodcliff-Lake-NJ-07677

  85. Libtard in the City says:

    1.54

  86. JJ says:

    I like. I also like their prefs and bonds. Broker told me lots of window dressing going on today, funds selling dogs of month as dont want it appearing in end of month statements. Now might be a good day to put a lowball in on JPM, the yield is pretty good. Should be a $45 stock in a few months and a good dividend.

    Libtard in the City says:
    May 31, 2012 at 11:11 am

    JJ,

    What’s your opinion on JPM (Chase)? I’m getting itchy.

  87. gary says:

    Sold for 660K in 2004, originally asked 725K last month, currently at 650K:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3080199933-303-Birch-Pkwy-Wyckoff-NJ-07481

  88. Libtard in the City says:

    THanks…was kind of what I was thinking. I made a quick 15% on them earlier this year and bailed. Good thing, since the dumb hedge imploded. I agree with you that 2 billion/3 billion is nothing. Everyone I know banks at Chase, and their fees are insane. I have a feeling a lot of people are paying them fees too.

  89. The Original NJ Expat says:

    My in-laws sold one house in Glen Rock to buy another house in Glen Rock in the mid-70’s. I think their “new” house, a pretty gigantic(for then) ~1955 split level was purchased by for about $110,000, a pretty astronomical price for the mid-70’s. I think it was originally the builder/architect’s house who designed all the houses in the neighborhood. Now $110,000 *barely* pays 3 years of property taxes on the very same now 57 year old house.

  90. Libtard in the City says:

    Oil hit $86.50.

  91. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [92] I just looked up the sq footage of that 1955 Glen Rock split, 3500 sq feet. They sold it in ’92 to another Glen Rock family who had been trying to buy it from them for about 2-3 years. Those owners still live there, now 20 years later. Still a great house, still a great town, but that family is now paying $33,000/year in taxes which is about $20K more per year in taxes than the outrageous for the time $13,000 tax bill in ’92 when they first bought it.

  92. Anon E. Moose says:

    Gary [78];

    When you’re paying $1250 per month in property taxes, is a 3.5%, 30 year fixed really gonna make you smile?

    With Helicopter Ben at the helm, getting my cash out of a 0.5% APY money market and levering up 4:1 at 2.5% APR (after taxes) while real inflation nuzzles up against 5% most certainly makes me smile.

    Just saw a new rental listing in my area of interest, asking almost exactly my target PITI. And this is in a neighborhood that doesn’t ‘do’ rentals. –scratches head–

  93. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [93] Time for QEx.

  94. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    here is reason # 99 why housing is not coming back

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/this-bright-eyed-young-man-was-utterly-demolished-by-student-loans.html

    is everyone else as sick of these woe is me BS stories as I am. You took out 50K in loans with bad terms, hell the mob gives better terms, for a BS work program from a for profit school and are surprised when you get a 10 buck and hour job. Crap my first job with a real degree paid just a little over that, you know what I worked hard moved up the food chain and paid my debts off. this whole country is filled with whiny irresponsible morons who want someone to bail them out for every failed decision they make and who can blame them when the government does it at every turn.

    Oh boy I’m starting to sound like reinvestor rock ribbed, mumble mumble mumble

  95. Libtard in the City says:

    Anyone know how that Spanish bank did during the European stress tests?

  96. gary says:

    Moose [95],

    Just saw a new rental listing in my area of interest, asking almost exactly my target PITI. And this is in a neighborhood that doesn’t ‘do’ rentals. –scratches head–

    This is also an indication that Graydon’s mommy is turning tricks while daddy is at work!

  97. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [93] Oil price has been BS for several years now. The price of Oil that is tossed around is meaningless. Before 2009 it had meaning, Brent, WTI, Heating Oil, RBOB gasoline all moved in lock step, so you could talk about any of them and the trend was the same for all. Now it’s just pure BS. WTI (what most people think is the price of oil) is no more real than CPI or Unemployment, just a cooked number to put on the front page of every finance site and TV news program. RBOB is all I pay attention to any more as I tend to buy more gasoline than crude in my day-to-day travels.

  98. SRK says:

    Aw, just got off the phone with the town tax department. House I am looking at shows 5.5k taxes for last year in Edmunds site, and exemption of 21k for past 3 years and 8.7k tax for this year in the monmouth site. RE agent said the tax jump was because of all the recent upgrades, while to me upgrades didnt look that recent, vanity in bathroom was already chipping and deck looking ready for a makeover. Tax dept says, exemption was for the 5-year tax abatement program for upgrades (meaning upgrades were done 5 years ago) and this year it ends for this house. Wow ! May be that’s why owner is selling…….

  99. Shore Guy says:

    “When you’re paying $1250 per month in property taxes…”

    one knows that one is living in a prestigious place, which must be better than the other parts of the country.

  100. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [100] And the price of Gold is BS too. The spread between spot and what it actually costs in paper money to buy an ounce is widening. To actually buy one once of gold, you’re going to pay over $1650, probably closer to $1700 today. To buy 1/10 ounce you’re going to pay $200, which is $2,000/ounce.

  101. seif says:

    In effect tomorrow:

    “As of June 1, 2012 the Federal Housing Finance Agency will institute new rules to speed up the short sale process. Banks will then have only 30 days to review and respond to a short sale request and an additional 60 days to approve the offer. Also, if the offer is still under review after 30 days, the bank is required to send weekly status updates to the seller and buyer. No doubt this will make all parties more agreeable to enter into a short sale agreement.”

  102. Juice Box says:

    re #104 – 30 day – 60 day? Seems like a vote buying operation to me. Banks aren’t going to staff up for this there is no way they want the write down now when they can continue extend and pretend.

  103. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pain [97];

    From that piece:
    “I was lied to about the terms of the private student loan,” Keith says. “And after completing the program, my first job in the culinary field (working on a meal assembly line) paid $10 per hour.”

    The first sentence and the second sentence have nothing to do with one another.

    Keith’s father only agreed to co-sign a student loan if he stuck with an engineering degree at Iowa State University

    State school; marketable degree. Turns out Dad was right, huh?

    “Just as I was getting close to getting my financial house in order, I was injured at work and became permanently disabled,” Keith says.

    Which is one of the few ways to get student loans discharged (Nom posted about one such case recently). Convenient, perhaps, but if provable, effective.

    none of his CCA credits will transfer if he decides to go back to school.

    A) Transfer credits? He wants MORE SCHOOL?!? and B) That’s proabbly exactly the situation when he enrolled. Eyes open… due diligence… etc.

    Overall it’s a young person who made foolish decisions with his life; and his circumstances hashed up in a nearly incoherent manner in the article, with the only unifying thesis being a purely emotional appeal.

    I guess his disability rules out the Army.

  104. seif says:

    we will have to see if it has any effect on sales, pricing, etc.

  105. Shore Guy says:

    “Today it’s in Indiana, tomorrow it’s in India,”

    Locked Out: Canadian workers pay heavy price in foreign acquisitions

    Fired workers say Caterpillar just one of several multinationals that subjected country to ‘economic rape’ with government help.

    http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/canada/120530/canada-workers-unions-caterpillar?google_editors_picks=true

  106. Shore Guy says:

    97:
    “Take 36-year-old Nick Keith, who remains $142,000 in debt eight years after graduating from culinary school.”

    I would question the wisdom of borrowing that much to go to either medical school or law school but, culinary school? That is absurd. It is time for folks to realize that purchasing education is like purchasing other products. Whilst we all might like to drive Bentleys, some of us settle for Mercedes, others for Chevys, and spending a Bently sum on a Chevy is simple foolishness.

  107. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    Expat, you sick of this yet?

    http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/elizabeth-warren-admits-identifying-herself-native-american-employers-150158503.html

    At least there is now a decent precedent: 1/32 gets you minority status. Most readers of this blog should be able to dig that up somewhere. Affirmative action and protected class, here we come.

  108. Shore Guy says:

    Gary,

    Maybe you should transfer a bunch of credits to some school, then graduate again:

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303360504577408431211035166.html?google_editors_picks=true

  109. moose (106)-

    But when banks walk away from their obligations, it’s just standard business practice, right?

  110. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [73] seif,

    That was anticipated, especially since the government won’t defend the law. Last week, the 9th Cir. issued a similar opinion and a group within the House of Representatives stepped in to defend it when the government wouldn’t. Section 3 of DOMA is going down, and once that happens, the LGBT crowd will go after Section 2. That’s where things are gonna get nasty because the courts are now saying that sex-ual orientation is a protected class.

  111. Libtard in the City says:

    “Whilst we all might like to drive Bentleys, some of us settle for Mercedes, others for Chevys, and spending a Bently sum on a Chevy is simple foolishness.”

    Montclair State yo!

  112. Shore Guy says:

    The Honda Civic of NJ higher education.

  113. Shore Guy says:

    I suppose Stockton is the Jeep.

  114. Jill says:

    Shore #75: I am a 4’10” size 16. I do a short workout (Firm Express cardio + weights) 3 days a week and either walk, take steps, or different workout the other days. I never eat fast food, I don’t drink soda, sugared or otherwise. I rarely have dessert and never have big oversized restaurant desserts. I have oatmeal or fruit and yogurt for breakfast, soup and green salad for lunch most days, moderate dinner. If I go out for dinner, I bring half to 2/3 of it home.

    I have an 85-year-old fat mother whose only health problem is COPD from smoking, and an 87-year-old fat father who has just completed successful chemo for lymphoma (where he would go for his chemo and then go out to lunch) and is now talking about a knee replacement.

    So….how much tax do you think I should pay for being fat?

  115. Jill says:

    Oh yeah, and I work 60-80 hours a week plus a 45-minute drive each way and do all the housework myself.

    So do you propose to tax my “fat, lazy @ass”?

  116. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [113];

    the courts are now saying that sex-ual orientation is a protected class.

    An entirely self-identifying one. Check a box, get a government job.

    There’s one aspect of this development in the grievance racket I hadn’t yet considered fully — It’s one thing for Obama to risk alientating his racial base by coming out in favor of gay marriage; I predict its another thing altogether if the GLBT crowd starts muscling in on minority set-asides.

  117. seif says:

    113 – “That’s where things are gonna get nasty because the courts are now saying that sex-ual orientation is a protected class.”

    are they saying that or are they saying it is a class that should not be discriminated against?

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [73] seif,

    This was expected, especially since the Feds refused to prosecute the appeal and the House of Representatives had to step in.

    I note that the Gill decision conflicts in its analysis with decisions coming out of California. So this ain’t over. Lots of fireworks to come. Also, the First Cir. decision was quite narrow, unlike the decision from the ND Cal issued by a Clinton appointee with serious left wing credentials. The First Circuit anticipates SCOTUS review and stayed its mandate. So, in reality, nothing changes for now.

    In reality, Gill, et al., doesn’t change much except tax and benefit treatment. The real fur will start to fly when LBGT groups go after Section 2 of DOMA. Section 3 gets the feds on thier side, but doesn’t help them in DOMA states. That is when these groups have to go after DOMA states to negate state statutes, and that will force the SCOTUS to revisit precedent.

    Place your bets and get your popcorn and a comfortable seat.

  119. joyce says:

    (73)

    why is the government federal or state involved in religious sacraments at all?

  120. gary says:

    Whatever happened to the friskie eating, greedy grubber, bagholder comments from BOYAAAAA BOB?

  121. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [120] seif

    Right now, laws like DOMA get rational basis scrutiny. The First Circuit applied rational basis, and refused to apply intermediate or strict scrutiny. But the ND Cal applied intermediate scrutiny, meaning that laws that go to orientation would be held to a higher standard. Such classes are referred to as “suspect” or “protected” classes.

    Personally, I prefer “protected”; “suspect” seems to denigrate the group.

  122. seif says:

    122 – are you referring to marriage as a religious sacrament?

  123. JJ says:

    I think a tax of 50% of your snacks, I would like to get a cut of all the fattys snacks, they get good stuff.

    Luckily I have the body of a Greek God, from the statutes I see they are all old looking and have a few parts missing.

    Jill says:
    May 31, 2012 at 1:18 pm
    Shore #75: I am a 4’10″ size 16. I do a short workout (Firm Express cardio + weights) 3 days a week and either walk, take steps, or different workout the other days. I never eat fast food, I don’t drink soda, sugared or otherwise. I rarely have dessert and never have big oversized restaurant desserts. I have oatmeal or fruit and yogurt for breakfast, soup and green salad for lunch most days, moderate dinner. If I go out for dinner, I bring half to 2/3 of it home.

    I have an 85-year-old fat mother whose only health problem is COPD from smoking, and an 87-year-old fat father who has just completed successful chemo for lymphoma (where he would go for his chemo and then go out to lunch) and is now talking about a knee replacement.

    So….how much tax do you think I should pay for being fat?

  124. gary says:

    “The US economy will avoid recession as the housing market begins to recover this spring, according to billionaire investor Sam Zell.”

    – CNBC (February 26, 2008)

  125. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [113] redux

    I had actually posted 113 inadvertently; tried to back out and it posted.

    FYI: the 9th Cir. hasn’t ruled on this issue yet. There are cases before it, and the lower courts have ruled DOMA unconst. Remains to be seen if the 9th hews in the same direction as the 1st Cir. or affirms and creates a conflict.

  126. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [122] joyce,

    One of the bases for attacking the law was that it intruded on the traditional role of the state to govern marriage, so it was an overreach by the feds.

    To me that is interesting because those same groups will take the complete opposite tack when they go after Section 2 of DOMA.

    I know personally quite a few con law professors that are going to be as giddy as schoolchildren over this.

  127. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    And I am dropping this. It isn’t the NJ Real Estate and Gay Marriage Report.

  128. Anon E. Moose says:

    Nom [110];

    About that headline: Was there really any dispute that Warren self-identified as a minority? And doesn’t that just highlight same problem to an even greater degree [119]?

  129. gary says:

    Obama senior adviser David Axelrod was met with protests from Romney supporters at a press event in Massachusetts today. A frustrated Axelrod, who was shouted down, tells the protesters “they can’t handle the truth.”

    After his brief remarks, Axelrod asked for questions from the press but was met with more banter from Romney protesters with slogans like, “where are the jobs?”

    “You can’t handle the truth, my friends. That’s the problem. If you can handle the truth, then you quiet down,” Axelrod said.

    Hype and Blame! LOL!

  130. JJ says:

    Only one male in a gay marriage can wear white linen pants.

    Comrade Nom Deplume says:
    May 31, 2012 at 1:36 pm

    And I am dropping this. It isn’t the NJ Real Estate and Gay Marriage Report.

  131. seif says:

    133 – interesting. so is it you or your partner JJ?

  132. seif says:

    134 – not that there’s anything wrong with that!

  133. I am a real estate Bull now says:

    BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAA

    Bob

  134. joyce says:

    (120)
    seif,
    Are you suggesting the “protected classes” are not given special treatment and are treated the same as the non protected classes?

    Personally, I think to suggest otherwise is laughable.

  135. joyce says:

    seif,

    Marriage is a religious sarcarment the last time I checked.

  136. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [130] redux

    Okay, just one more, and as a service to con law nerds like me, compare and contrast this decision to the 1st circuit case. Makes for some interesting plotlines.

    http://www.metroweekly.com/poliglot/DragovichOrder.pdf

    BTW people, these cases are really much ado about little. The fun really starts after 2012 and if Obama gets a majority on the SCOTUS. Going after Section 2 is gonna test the resolve of both extremes. I expect a body count.

  137. Comrade Nom Deplume says:

    [131] moose,

    Tempest in a teapot except as to optics. She should have come out and said yeah, I’m proud of it, so what? Then it just leads to questions about whether she is the affirmative action professor. Heck, we seemed to have applied affirmative action to much higher offices than that.

    But silence or denial just ramps it up and makes the AA issue more paramount. Seems to me like she intended to use it and Harvard intended to rely on it. Not good optics but then the voters who are pissed off by this and AA generally are not going to vote for her, so what’s lost?

  138. seif says:

    137 – no. that is what you are saying.

  139. Jill says:

    JJ said: “I think a tax of 50% of your snacks, I would like to get a cut of all the fattys snacks, they get good stuff.”

    You want to tax my fruit at 50%? I don’t eat fatty snacks, either. I come from a long line of Jewish peasants, this is how we’re built.

  140. seif says:

    138 – check again

  141. joyce says:

    144

    I should not have said “traditional” role when referring to the state’s but instead their initial role or involvment into marriage.

  142. Mike says:

    Gary Keep playing those old tunes! Love em

  143. joyce says:

    143

    seif, I will check again.

    yup, it is. i realize the governments at all levels have passed laws giving different treatment to married couples (highlighte by, but DEFINITELY not limited to, tax treatment). but instead of just giving more people (gay couples) this treatment, i propose eliminating the special treatment all together [repealing the initial laws]

    repeal a law … what a horrifying thought
    I forgot the govt isn’t supposed to protect our rights, merely take them away.

  144. SRK says:

    138 Joyce, “Marriage is a religious sarcarment the last time I checked.” Oh, no, that is a pandora’s box right there. The next logical step will be a connection to the first amendment – and then “my religion allows polyandrous/polygamous marriage, so I shall practice it” ! :-)

  145. seif says:

    146 – maybe for you. marriage is a legal contract. religion is not required.

  146. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [110] Nom, Warren – She seems to be taking a page out of Martha Coakley’s playbook. Snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. I used to kind of like Warren, now I’m on the fence. The whole time I’ve lived up here the only major candidate I’ve ever voted for who actually won was Scott Brown…and he still lost in my district.

  147. Juice Box says:

    The gays should have to suffer just like everyone else that is married, give them full rights to join the rest of us in our suffering.

  148. JJ says:

    But will have to change their name. Dancing around, partying all the time is where they get the name Gay from.

    Actually

    Juice Box says:
    May 31, 2012 at 2:16 pm

    The gays should have to suffer just like everyone else that is married, give them full rights to join the rest of us in our suffering.

  149. The Original NJ Expat says:

    The very first day in 2004 that you could get a same-sex marriage license my friend from Westchester was up here visiting me in Boston. I was Mr. Mom, no job except taking care of my 2 year-old and newborn. My buddy is an attorney, does a lot of work for Greenwich & Westchester based hedge funds. We’re on the T (like the Path train) going into Boston to have lunch or something, weekday, middle of the day. I have my 2 year old in a stroller, my buddy is wearing my newborn in a pink Baby Bjorn knockoff handed down by my SIL. He’s on his cell phone working out the details of some deal he’s drafting up oblivious to everyone else on the train. It’s the Green Line headed toward Govt. Center. I’m looking around the train and there are people all over taking glances at us. All of a sudden I realized why. They were all sure we were going downtown to get one of the first day same-sex marriage licenses. I guess I was the wife;-)

  150. JJ says:

    I guess you had pillow-head too and were sitting cross legged. I wonder why gay people would need conjical visits while in prision, seems redundant

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    May 31, 2012 at 2:26 pm

    The very first day in 2004 that you could get a same-sex marriage license my friend from Westchester was up here visiting me in Boston. I was Mr. Mom, no job except taking care of my 2 year-old and newborn. My buddy is an attorney, does a lot of work for Greenwich & Westchester based hedge funds. We’re on the T (like the Path train) going into Boston to have lunch or something, weekday, middle of the day. I have my 2 year old in a stroller, my buddy is wearing my newborn in a pink Baby Bjorn knockoff handed down by my SIL. He’s on his cell phone working out the details of some deal he’s drafting up oblivious to everyone else on the train. It’s the Green Line headed toward Govt. Center. I’m looking around the train and there are people all over taking glances at us. All of a sudden I realized why. They were all sure we were going downtown to get one of the first day same-sex marriage licenses. I guess I was the wife;-)

  151. Libtard channeling JJ: says:

    I only support gay marriage between two women. After all, who wants to watch two men consummate their marriage?

  152. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    hey shore your an osprey? Me too class of 97 : )

  153. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [97] Student loans – in the late 70’s, early 80’s my only friends who had student loans were rich kids. Their parents made them take them out and then the parents put the money in 13% CDs. As soon as the kids got out of college the parents cashed in the CDs, paid off the loans and gave their kids the interest as a graduation present.

  154. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [155] Lib – I was going to post almost exactly this 10 minutes ago, but I got distracted. There was definitely going to be a JJ reference too!

    I only support gay marriage between two women. After all, who wants to watch two men consummate their marriage?

  155. Dan in debt says:

    Blech!! Just finished my refinancing for a 7 year at 2 7/8% and thought I was smart since it only cost $250 out of pocket. Probably could have gotten 2 1/2% if I started today.

  156. JJ says:

    My cousin maxed out her student loan every year for four years and bought 30 year treasuries at 16% she payed them off in a few years with just the interest and had an income stream for another 25 years and then got back all the principal.

    Student loans used to be 8% and interest did not start till you graduate.

    You could take out a 10K student loan as a freshman have $1,600 interest income for ten years which was huge money in 1980. By senior year you have $6,400 interest inocome.

    This is why the rich get richer and the poor buy facebook.

    The Original NJ Expat says:
    May 31, 2012 at 2:40 pm
    [97] Student loans – in the late 70′s, early 80′s my only friends who had student loans were rich kids. Their parents made them take them out and then the parents put the money in 13% CDs. As soon as the kids got out of college the parents cashed in the CDs, paid off the loans and gave their kids the interest as a graduation present.

  157. SRK says:

    150 JB, Exactly my arguement too :-)

    151 JJ, Of course. No more gayness for those wretched married couples !

    152 Expat, Thanks for the hearty laugh ! :-)

  158. gary says:

    Jill [153],

    I think I’m focusing on the Pascack Valley region due to convenience for the family. I always liked it anyway and had relatives in Westwood and River Vale.

  159. The Original NJ Expat says:

    I have a cycling buddy who married her partner last fall, she’s about 35, her partner maybe a tad older. They both moved out here from CA a few years ago. My friend’s parents are part of the private school/country club set somewhere in Georgia, so this has been trouble between them for a long time. Her parents were semi-accepting of them being together as it’s been over 8 years now and at least they were in California and now MA and not embarrassing them in front of their Country Club friends, but when she called them up and told them they were getting married, her Mom stopped talking to her for two weeks. They eventually accepted the inevitable and even came up to Boston for the City Hall wedding, but my friend was killing herself with worry right up until the date. Back when they got engaged I told her she should fix her parent’s boat once and for all by taking out an engagement announcement in their local paper. I thought she would laugh at that, but she was clearly mortified at the thought. My friend is a tall, lean brunette, used to be a pro tennis player. Her partner is a very petite blonde latina. I have no problem with them being married, I think about them often;-)

  160. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    expat a gay ex professional tennis player well that is rare : )

  161. 3B says:

    #53 Jill: Thanks for the heads up!!! Now I will be able to keep abreast of whatever madness might be going on there. I did read a few weeks ago, that they have almost exhausted their budget surplus, not a good thing. The land of the Unicorns went down that same path. Still taxes are significantly lower, and quite frankly probably most small government is run by idiots. Also quite a few new listings have come on in Hillsdale this week, sort of in my range. Will have to check them put this weekend (a little hard without the addresses, but doable) . One that came on was a 2 bedroom (too small, and never a good idea) at 399k!!!!!! I guess they want someone to pay for the 50k or more kitchen they just put in.

    We also have WT as a back up, so we will see how it goes. Either that or I will have to live in my VW Passat;of course first I have to get one.

  162. 3B says:

    #62 gary: If you want to be sophisicated and fashionable, you have to say “the valley”, otherwise you will stick out.

  163. gary says:

    “ ‘We are finally beginning to see the seeds of a bottoming’ in the housing industry, Greenspan said today during a conference of the National Association of Realtors in Washington. The U.S. is ‘at the edge of a major liquidation’ in the stock of unsold properties, which may help to stabilize prices, Greenspan said.”

    – Bloomberg (May 12, 2009)

  164. Painhrtz - I ain't dead yet says:

    yawn!

    http://news.yahoo.com/mortgage-rates-plummet-15-fixed-below-3-pct-142527335–abc-news-topstories.html

    Wake me up when they are under a 2 handle then i’ll refinance

  165. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [167] When the FDIC doesn’t fail a bank or three every non-holiday weekend Friday we’ll be at some turning point. Is there any way to place a bet that there will not be a bank failure on a holiday weekend? There is at least one bank failure on 95% of non-holiday weekend Fridays, but 0% on holiday weekends. You would think they could get more done with the extra day extra day, but it never happens. Govt workers don’t put their time off above their jobs, do they?

  166. gary (127)-

    Once again proving that when Sam Zell is selling, one had best not be buying.

    “The US economy will avoid recession as the housing market begins to recover this spring, according to billionaire investor Sam Zell.”

  167. joyce says:

    Why is the government involved in any way, shape or form regarding your personal, private and adult living relationships?

    Where can you find in the Constitution the authority of the Federal Government to “make legal” (or illegal) any such arrangement? The 10th Amendment says if it’s not explicitly in The Constitution it’s none of the government’s damn business.

    More to the point, how can you possibly square any such position for or against any particular combination of family in the context of a word that is inherently religious in origin and meaning with The Establishment Clause?

    You can’t. But you sure can pander, and boy oh boy do we do a lot of that in politics. Obama now joins Gary Johnson who has also been trumpeting this as “an issue”, and both are doing so in a means that simply applies more statism and more unconstitutional intrusion into your life and, in this case, bedroom than there is any justification for.

    There is no justification for any such law — for or against. I remind everyone that the original intent of “marriage laws” was institutional racism — bigotry.

    That’s right — the original laws were passed, right around 1700 in America, to prevent miscegenation — the intermarriage of white people with other races, in this case blacks and Indians (Native Americans if you prefer.)

    Yeah.

    So we have laws that were flatly unconstitutional in their first instance but which pre-dated the Constitution. Indeed, Constitutional Amendments were actually proposed to enact miscegenation as federal policy on multiple occasions (at least three that I know of.) The laws on miscegenation were slowly struck after the Civil War but were not ruled unconstitutional until 1967 in Loving v. Virginia. Nonetheless it was not until 2001 that the last of them was actually repealed.

    But the bigotry doesn’t end there. Several States, including Florida, currently criminalize two people of the opposite sex cohabitating. Note that Obama says nothing about this even though a gay couple can live openly in Florida without violating the law as the Florida Statute specifically says “man and woman.”

    The State has no business being involved in this whatsoever. There is no legitimate argument for special privileges or penalties associated with one’s living arrangement so long as the participants are all consenting adults. And there are penalties — try being married with two incomes and you’ll find out exactly how that works come tax time.

    I’ll be interested in applauding more statist behavior when someone can show me where in the Constitution it is authorized for the Federal Government to pass a law dealing with how two or more adults choose to live in the privacy of their own home. There is exactly one legitimate role for government in this regard, and that is to provide a venue in which voluntarily entered-into contracts can be enforced if necessary (commonly called a civil courtroom.)

    If you want to create a contract for your living arrangement, have at it.

    If you want to get married, go see a Priest.

    And if you don’t like this reality in the context of The Constitution, including The Establishment Clause, then pass an amendment under the lawful procedures to do so that confers upon the Federal Government the right to intrude into your bedroom and tell you whether your living arrangement is “lawful” or not.

    Until then it’s none of the Federal Government’s damn business, whether you’re gay, straight, white, black, brown or Martian and I for one am tired of the pandering incessantly displayed by politicians that are in fact nothing more than application of yet another boot to the neck of the people.

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=205752

  168. dan (159)-

    When society breaks down completely, the only expense involved in housing will be that of hardening the perimeter enough to keep the marauding gangs from overrunning you.

  169. It’s all fading to black. And the pace is accelerating.

  170. JJ says:

    joyce I 100% would agree if it was not for fact I am being asked to pay for it. It would throw tons of people onto social security, medicare, pensions plans and work health care plans, possibly bankrupting all or some.

    I honest could care less if rich gay guys want to marry their hot bod unemployed boy toys who have not worked a day in their lives. Trouble is they become legally entitled to their SS etc. A wife who bears four kids and works like a dog for 60 years and becomes a widow is entitle to the SS, a 19 year old boy toy marrying a rich half dead flamer will bankrupt the system. Other issue is bi-sexual couples. What about men and women who are bi-sexual dont they deserve two spouses, what about cats and dogs, maybe I will marry a white castle cheese burger, I do love them. Slipperly slope.

  171. Juice Box says:

    Interesting read on Citi’s MBS bundling fraud during the Bubble, of course a happy ending nobody goes to jail yet…. Robert Rubin is fingered here.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/woman-who-couldn-t-be-intimidated-by-citigroup-wins-31-million.html

  172. joyce says:

    175

    So then let’s instead repeal the broken unconstitutional programs and laws of the past making everything you just said moot. Problem solved, now we can move onto another wedge issue.

  173. Jill says:

    3b #165: Yeah, but that is a damn sweet little bungalow…that looks like quartersawn oak trim in that place. =drool=

    You’d be taking the train from Woodcliff Lake from that house, not Hillsdale. Likewise the OK house on Knickerbocker. There seems to be a lot in the $355-$399K range all in that neighborhood. That Oak St. house looks like a steal, but that close to the brook might have me worried about flooding. Likewise the Glendale Ave. house. Something should come through there.

  174. Richard says:

    175 – its not just during the bubble – it was still going on last year!

  175. Juice Box says:

    JJ – are you cheating on your Vidalia with a Cheeseburger?

  176. The Original NJ Expat says:

    [174] In Massachusetts we have legalized same-sex marriage. We also have no minimum age for marriage with parental consent. Unless Nom can correct me, it seems perfectly legal and plausible for a 10 year old boy to marry a 55 year old man as long as the 10 year old’s parents consent. That will be interesting when it happens. Also, pay attention to the last line below:

    Code Section
    Ch. 207§7, 24, 25

    Minimum Legal Age with Parental Consent
    Male: not specified; Female: not specified

    Minimum Legal Age Without Parental Consent
    Male: 18; Female: 18

    Comments
    No statutory provision for minimum age with consent. Common law prevails. If parent deserted or incapable of consent, not necessary to obtain consent.

  177. Juice Box says:

    I know some folks that are fond of the muslim marriage laws like a fixed-term marriage.
    I would think that would be a good one to lobby for….

  178. The Original NJ Expat says:

    Is it Bigamy or Monogamy that is defined as having one wife too many?

  179. jj (174)-

    Won’t your onion be jealous?

    “maybe I will marry a white castle cheese burger, I do love them.”

  180. Theo says:

    How many of you would turn you cannibal son over to the authorities?

  181. Dan in debt says:

    Bigamy or Monogamy aren’t the only decisions.

    By the time this election cycle is done, we’ll learn from the Obamabots that:

    Marriage between man and man is good.
    Marriage between man and more than one woman is bad.
    Man not getting married but having kids with more than one woman and making them all dependent on social services is good.

  182. theo (185)-

    Jamie Dimon’s parents never ratted him out…

  183. WickedOrange says:

    NJ residents to begin paying sales tax on Amazon.com purchases in July 2013

    http://www.northjersey.com/news/NJ_residents_to_begin_paying_sales_tax_on_Amazoncom_purchases.html?mobile=1

  184. Happy Renter says:

    [188] One more reason I won’t miss NJ.

  185. Amazon sucks, anyway.

  186. Oblivion, dead ahead.

    “If Raoul Pal was some doomsday spouting windbag, writing in all caps, arbitrarily pasting together disparate charts to create 200 page slideshows, it would be easy to ignore him. He isn’t. The founder of Global Macro Investor “previously co-managed the GLG Global Macro Fund in London for GLG Partners, one of the largest hedge fund groups in the world. Raoul came to GLG from Goldman Sachs where he co-managed the hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe… Raoul Pal retired from managing client money in 2004 at the age of 36 and now lives on the Valencian coast of Spain, from where he writes.” It is his writing we are concerned about, and specifically his latest presentation, which is, for lack of a better word, the most disturbing and scary forecast of the future of the world we have ever seen….

    And we see a lot of those.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/big-reset-2012-and-2013-will-usher-end-scariest-presentation-ever

  187. Mikeinwaiting says:

    Meat “Oblivion, dead ahead.” is it ever in the rear. In the end we are all dead, pour me a double. I may welcome the change anyway, lock and load kiddies.

  188. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [191] Meat – spot on. This gets no airplay and it is the cause of all our ills and the hungry behemoth snacking on trillion dollar bailouts. In 2008 most of the big banks thought their rear ends were covered with hedges. You sell a zillion dollars in (synthetic) CDS, collecting premium and buy a zillion dollars in (synthetic) CDS covering your ass on the CDS you sold, paying a slightly lower premium for the protection you bought compared to the protection you sold. You have a steady stream of permanent cash flow on the spread between the insurance you sold and the insurance you bought…until one of the insurers you bought from suddenly can’t pay and you realize you’re not hedged, you’re naked. Central banks have been printing clothes for the naked ever since.

    from the article:
    The problem is not Government debt per se. The real problem is that the $70 trillion in G10 debt is the collateral for $700 trillion in derivatives…

  189. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [193] I always imagined the game like a gigantic bookie ring, which it is. Bookies take action and they lay off when they have too much action. It’s all honor amongst thieves until a couple members of the ring pull up stakes and get out of town (Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman), now the rest of the ring is screwed because they can’t even find the guys who’s legs need to be broken and they don’t have any assets that can be extracted to prop up the ring anyway. Enter Paulson.

  190. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^^^^^^^^ Should be simple, every bookie tries to make a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome of the event.

  191. Brian says:

    Cheer up.

    There Went Meat says:
    May 31, 2012 at 11:10 pm
    Oblivion, dead ahead.

Comments are closed.