Otteau: NJ home prices up 2.9% in Q4

From the Record:

Home prices up 2.9 percent in NJ, appraiser says

Home prices rose 2.9 percent in New Jersey, to an average of $276,944, in the fourth quarter of 2012, an East Brunswick appraiser said Friday. The increase is the first reported by appraiser Jeffrey Otteau in the state since late 2010.

Otteau, who tracks the housing market statewide, said the higher prices were driven by a recent revival of the Garden State’s employment market, which added 48,000 jobs in 2012 — the biggest gain since 2000. However, the state ended the year with an unemployment rate of 9.6 percent, well above the national rate of 7.8 percent in December.

Otteau’s price results differ from other analysts’ reports, which use other methods and look at slightly different areas. For example, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index recently reported that prices dipped 1.2 percent in the New York metropolitan area, including North Jersey, from November 2011 to November 2012. Prices in the region are about 24.5 percent below their peaks in mid-2006, and are back to the levels of late 2003, according to Case-Shiller.

New Jersey still has a large backlog of distressed properties expected to end up in foreclosure over the next several years. They are likely to put downward pressure on prices, especially in urban areas, because foreclosed properties typically sell at a large discount.

RealtyTrac reported this week that foreclosure filings doubled in New Jersey from January 2012 to January 2013, with one in every 1,024 households in the state in some stage of the foreclosure process. In Bergen County, the number was one in every 1,275, while in Passaic, it was one in every 905.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

45 Responses to Otteau: NJ home prices up 2.9% in Q4

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Neighbors’ Effect on Appraisals

    You may be able to ignore the knee-high grass in your neighbor’s yard, but a home appraiser won’t.

    When calculating the value of a property, an appraiser also factors in surrounding conditions. Neighborhood nuisances like an overgrown yard or a persistent odor could in some cases bring down the value of adjacent homes by 5 to 10 percent, said Richard L. Borges II, the president of the Appraisal Institute.

    What a homeowner might refer to as a bad neighbor, the appraisal industry calls “external obsolescence” — depreciation caused by factors off the property and beyond the homeowner’s control.

    “There are a number of different things that can be going on, from a nasty, cranky neighbor to a sloppy neighbor to lots of barking dogs,” said Diane Saatchi, a real estate broker at Saunders & Associates in Bridgehampton, N.Y.

    Some issues are not always apparent, “and you can kind of get away with them,” she said. But an obvious eyesore like a yard cluttered with old boats may be enough to prevent a neighboring property from selling.

  2. grim says:

    Too much time on their hands, from the WSJ:

    Using Smell to Make a Sale

    Everyone loves the smell of freshly baked cookies, but don’t expect that aroma to sell your home, new research suggests.

    Homeowners are often coached to create pleasing aromas when potential buyers pay a visit. But complex smells, like baked goods and potpourri, are likely to damp enthusiasm for a fast sale for top dollar, says Eric Spangenberg, dean of the college of business at Washington State University, whose study on the effects of aromas is scheduled to appear in the Journal of Retailing next month.

    He and his co-authors studied 402 people in a home-décor store in Switzerland over 18 days in 2010 and found that shoppers spent 31.8% more, on average, when the store was scented with a simple orange scent over a complex blend of orange, basil and green tea. The same principles apply to open houses, Prof. Spangenberg says, because in both cases, the aromas may affect cognitive functions in the same areas of the brain involved in decision-making.

  3. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  4. Mike says:

    1 I always heard different that the appraiser did not look at that. My father took such pride in his lawn and home but the neighbors on both sides of him were slobs (although nice people) It got to the point a few times when he wanted out but was afraid he would not get what it was really worth because of them The appraisers reassured him that does not matter. Maybe lying who knows? Myself I turned the house of my dreams and backed out of attorney review after being up all night thinking of the Clampetts shack on the right of me and did I want to look at it everytime I pulled in the driveway. The neighborhood was prime for knockdowns and putting up Mcmansions. In desperation I went snooping around to find out more about the owner, maybe 90 years old?, take a builders offer? Nope younger than me and he grew up in the house.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    Prices in the region are about 24.5 percent below their peaks in mid-2006, and are back to the levels of late 2003, according to Case-Shiller.

    New Jersey still has a large backlog of distressed properties expected to end up in foreclosure over the next several years.

    Another 10% drop EASY and then a decade of lonely sorrow drifting in the abyss. I’m seeing the same handful of houses over and over, week after week. Today, I saw a few new listings that dropped off over the winter and came back on. If you bought from 2004 through 2008, you’re pretty much f.ucked unless you feel like bringing a check to the closing. The problem is, the unqualified sellers don’t have the money so they either keep up the monthly extortion payment or give up and walk away. The housing market in North Jersey is a f.ucking train wreck.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    Jeffrey Otteau is a f.ucking p1mp.

  7. Anon E. Moose says:

    Eddie [5];

    Don’t overlook the inflation component. I was always a strong believer that inflation would do to home prices what sellers themselves couldn’t bear to watch, because they could fool themselves into thinking that it wasn’t really happening.t

    C-S is not inflation adjusted. C-S is 24.5% down from 2006 peak, and riding at 2003 (nominal) levels. 2006-2012 aggregate CPI inflation was 13.9% (and even CPI is widely believed as understated). That’s real drop of 38.4% in less than 7 years. They called us all tin-foil hats for predicting 40% drops from the peak.

    This is to say nothing of the mix – like Grim says there is no “median” house. A liveable house in a good area isn’t going to fall as hard

    The final thing, your sellers are irrational human beings. Can’t avoid that fact. You can lead a horse to water, but can’t make them drink. My point is that you just have to be there when they come to Jesus.

  8. Anon E. Moose says:

    Con’t [7];

    — fall as hard… as a multi in the ghetto that was overbought and overleveraged by an idiot and/or amateur landlord, or that was on the books at an inflated price as part of some equity stripping scheme.

    I like the Buffet position — make a lot of money by moving too soon instead of too late.

  9. Fast Eddie says:

    The very first house I clicked on… a random selection. This one sold for 567.5K in 2006, currently asking 510K. Multiple this by infinity -1 and you have housing genocide in our area:

    http://www.trulia.com/property/3107380377-790-Wynetta-Pl-Paramus-NJ-07652#photo-2

  10. Essex says:

    The summary here is that it takes more and more to achieve less and less. The old form of economic growth is no longer with us, but the Fed still doesn’t get it. It still has its eyes firmly trained on economic indicators and equations, having not yet raised its gaze into the real world where limits are being reached.

    As Gail nicely encapsulates, many of those limits are carefully hidden from view as a slightly but steadily reducing net energy for oil seeps into every nook and cranny of our complex economy.

    The sinkholes that we are facing now are extraordinary. Some of them are quite literal, and numerous, as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania is demonstrating.

  11. Essex says:

    9. So?

  12. grim says:

    9 – 790 Wynetta is already in attorney review, only lasted 2 weeks on market. I’d call that one priced very, very well. I wouldn’t be surprised if it closes at or very near ask.

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    There’s no spreadsheet to measure pain. You have to use your sense of “street” smell to pick this one out and the air reeks of financial death.

  14. Essex says:

    Eddie I doubt it’s ever smelled any different. The longer you live that sense of doom is pronounced. I guarantee that some folks aren’t feeling it. But that group is very, very small. Most of us are slogging along. Doom would be a relief for some. Get a camper and go on the road for the rest of the year.

  15. Doom is imminent. No one will be spared.

  16. grim says:

    Here is the BC action (market to arip in under 2 weeks) for the past week or so, I’m skipping the trash properties and marginal towns, no relisting bullshit.

    30 Busteed, Midland, $515k ask – ARIP in 12 days
    115 Dean, Glen Rock, $399k ask, ARIP in 14 days
    51 Beech, Glen Rock, $939k ask – ARIP in 3 days
    93 Chuckanut, Oakland, $469k ask – ARIP in 3 days
    530 Chickasaw, Oakland, $530k ask – ARIP in 1 day
    191 Morningside, Paramus, $449k ask – ARIP in 7 days
    110 West Glen, Paramus, $500k ask – ARIP in 8 days
    362 Janet, Paramus, $890k ask – ARIP in 3 days
    21 East Glen, Ridgewood, $565k ask – ARIP in 4 days
    241 Prospect, Ridgewood, $1.1m ask – ARIP in 11 days
    254 W Ridgewood, Ridgewood, $1.17m ask – ARIP in 9 days
    590 Wellington, Ridgewood, $1.22m ask – ARIP in 4 days
    616 Abbe, Rivervale, $1.3m ask – ARIP in 2 days
    60 Foster, Tenafly, $675k ask, ARIP in 12 days
    27 N Brae, Tenafly, $1.6m ask, ARIP in 3 days
    50 Anona, Saddle River, $788k ask, ARIP in 2 days
    10 W Hill, Woodcliff, $515k ask, ARIP in 1 day
    90 Pinecrest, Woodcliff, $549k ask, ARIP in 5 days
    90 Wood, Wyckoff, $419k ask, ARIP in 6 days
    7 Ward, Wyckoff, $399k ask – ARIP in 10 days
    114 Wyckoff Ave, Wyckoff, $599 ask – ARIP in 5 days
    552 Fairmont, Wyckoff, $850k ask – ARIP in 11 days
    116 Armour, Mahwah, $779k ask, ARIP in 7 days
    19 Biscayne, Ramsey, $700k ask, ARIP in 8 days
    6 Kent, Park Ridge, $500k ask, ARIP in 4 days

  17. “TrimTabs’ CEO Charles Biderman finds it hard to hide his disdain for the omnipotent reality that President Obama espoused of a non-deficit increasing State of the Union solution to all our ills (from climate, income inequality, opportunity, and health) as he notes the politicians “do not seem to understand is that big government is, in fact, the problem, not the solution.” The problem is it is hard to find one service the government provides that is effective, other then writing checks. We have not won the federal wars on poverty, or drugs, nor overseas wars in Iraq, and Afghanistan – so although governments have rarely successfully provided services, we have a government committed to doing just that. This faith in government omnipotence is now bleeding over into stocks, as Biderman notes “since January 1, investors are pouring billions into the markets in the mistaken belief that the “fake” money created by central banks is just as good as previously existing money, and the markets will keep soaring. But for how long?” He is clear on the implication of this “magical thinking” At some point “the markets will have an “aha” moment and stop allowing central banks to use newly created money with which to pay government bills. When that happens the markets will crash.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-15/biderman-markets-ha-moment-and-obamas-apparent-omnipotence

  18. Fast Eddie says:

    grim,

    Do you have pictures of these:

    10 W Hill, Woodcliff, $515k ask, ARIP in 1 day
    90 Pinecrest, Woodcliff, $549k ask, ARIP in 5 days

  19. Phoenix says:

    [4] Mike
    My neighbors could have had a nicer house next to theirs if it was not for the following:
    Variances required (my lot rezoned after original house built), can’t even rebuild the same house in the same spot. I need a 2k variance to make my front steps 1ft wider, along with a 6+ month time frame. And the “mother may I” that went along with that, even though my property is only an ounce shy of an acre. Add the contractors that asked how much I paid for my house, and proceeded to tell me what it was going to be worth when it was done (they wanted all of my equity based on the estimates), along with the price of materials that change from town to town. Then there was the cretin that wanted 40k to rebuild my 1.5 car detached garage (no foundation, heat or electric at that price). Then there was the architect that would fail to provide lubrication with his estimates.

  20. Fast Eddie says:

    90 Pinecrest, Woodcliff Lake:

    THIS HOME OFFERS A UNIQUE FLOOR PLAN, VAULTED CEILINGS IN THE DOUBLE DOOR ENTRY AND LIVING RM/DINING RM COMBO. ALL QUESTIONS AND NEGO IN CONTRACT FORM ALONG WITH A PRE-APPROVAL THROUGH THE LISTING BROKER.SUBJECT TO BANK APPROVAL, BUYER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL CITY CERTIFICATIONS/INSPECTIONS.

    Thus, priced right, I suppose. Hmm… a “unique” floor plan. They all look promising until you tour them or hurdle the obstacles or figure out the cost to remove the odor and eyesores.

  21. grim says:

    20 – See, that’s the problem, everyone wants it to smell like daisies and show as fine as a 22 yo supermodel’s ass, and in many towns, they’ll gladly pay for it, that’s the competition.

    Foul odors? Smells like money to me. Bring it on. Harvest Gold and Avocado, even better. Boomerang Formica and Wood Panels, money shot.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    …and in many towns, they’ll gladly pay for it.

    And oh man, there are many that are certainly paying for it! ;)

  23. Libtard at home says:

    Richard, you know that Montclair house is awreck when two of the eight pictures are of train stations and there are no close up or interior shots.

  24. serenity now says:

    Grim Re#16
    50 Anona – Upper Saddle River –
    Just up the street from me, nice house for the money.

  25. Mike says:

    Phoenix 19 understandable when money and municipal red tape prevents you from upgrading, but I was talking more about waiting for the lawn to grow 3ft. before cutting it. I don’t believe money was an issue with the one neighbor since he put up a garage that was almost 3/4 the size of the shack. Talk about priorities.

  26. BearsFan says:

    “Foul odors? Smells like money to me. Bring it on. Harvest Gold and Avocado, even better. Boomerang Formica and Wood Panels, money shot.”

    Wife and I are convinced of the fact that this is the way to go grim. Find the right bones in the right location that has too much work needed to get the free-wheeling credit competitors interested. Then grind the seller. Requires patience, and I found this one mid last year, but sadly appears I was the first, and the second bidder who came along got the sale at my original bid. Frustrating, but I am not discouraged and continue to stick to this plan as the best approach looking back 5-10 years from now.

  27. Essex says:

    I think what doom and Ronny Reagan sez makes cents. Most are one paycheck away from oblivion. :-)

  28. Libtard at home says:

    Icky Shuffler… This is what we did. Sunk 50K in and home assessed for 120K more than we paid for it. Could have flipped it, but where would we find the next deal? This one took us a solid three years to find and we still got lucky as it fell out of contract twice.

  29. NJGator says:

    Who wants to pay $18K/year in taxes to live in Bloomfield?

    http://www.baristanet.com/2013/02/baristaville-open-houses-sunday-feb-17/

    26 Cambridge (GSMLS 2997315) LP $449,000

  30. yome says:

    Zillow has a prediction for market trend called market guide. Is your home going up in value next year?

  31. Juice Box says:

    New roof, new siding, new windows, new trim, install hardwood, redo 3 baths
    New kitchen, new furnace, new ac, new back yard fencing, paint and
    Detail whole house, fix 20 years of neglect and remove shoddy hotub rip out illegal shower. This is what is needed yet they still want full boat $640k.

  32. Juice Box says:

    continued…

    cracked front stoop, first step separated, aluminum siding painted, house listed as including appliances when appliances are from 1982.

  33. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice Box,

    Pathetic, isn’t it? Let the f.ucking thing rot along with the delusional sellers. Where is the house located? Which town?

  34. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Same old song. It’s amazing how the infestation oozes from the seams when you see these dumps in person. No amount of lipstick and realtor blather can disguise the crime scene.

  35. Juice Box says:

    Eddie – I am tired of the time warps where I get to visit the 70s with their sunken living rooms or the 80s and all of the dark wood trim or the flipper specials where they did not even put on a second coat of paint. In this case the house around corner sold for 507 in 2011 with some updates. This place does not even have hardwood on either floor. Everything is the same since 1982, even the carpet in most rooms but hey they left the Encyclopedia Britannica, the hotub that is installed in-front of sliding doors and the illegal shower installed a narrow slider closet that granny probably passed away in. So everything is ok then? $629k and you can’t even get a CO for this place.

  36. Fast Eddie says:

    Juice,

    Send the seller a “get well soon” card along with a case of cup a soups.

  37. Phoenix says:

    640k buys you the haughtyness to say you live in the same town as the list below, and the possibility to run into them at the local Starbucks. Gotta pay to play I guess.

    Mary Kay Adams (born 1962), actress on Babylon 5.[117][118]
    Joseph Azzolina (1926–2010), served in the New Jersey General Assembly from 1966-1972, 1986–1988 and from 1992–2006.[119]
    Sebastian Bach (born 1968), heavy metal singer.[120]
    Jon Bon Jovi (born 1962), musician.[121][122]
    Pete Capella (born 1977), voice actor, comedian.[123]
    Connie Chung (born 1946), TV journalist.[124]
    Billy Devaney (born 1955), General Manager of the St. Louis Rams.[125]
    Siobhan Fallon Hogan (born 1961), former Saturday Night Live cast member.[126]
    Amy Handlin (born 1956), represents the 13th Legislative District in the New Jersey General Assembly.[127]
    Judith Rich Harris (born 1938), psychologist and author of The Nurture Assumption.[128]
    Debbie Harry (born 1945), singer-songwriter and actress, lead singer of the band Blondie.[129]
    Jerry Holbert, editorial cartoonist.[130]
    Bill Kunkel (1936-1985), former Major League Baseball pitcher and umpire.[131]
    Jeff Kunkel (born 1962), former major-league shortstop.[132]
    Brian Lynch (born 1973), writer and director of films including Big Helium Dog.[133]
    Melanie McGuire (born 1972, née Slate), convicted of murder.[134]
    Knowshon Moreno (born 1987), NFL running back for the Denver Broncos.[135]
    Christian Peter (born 1972), former NFL defensive tackle.[136]
    Jason Peter (born 1974), former NFL football player.[137]
    Maury Povich (born 1939), talk show personality.[138]
    Geraldo Rivera (born 1943), television journalist.[35]
    Richard Scudder (1913-2012), newspaper pioneer and co-founder of the MediaNews Group.[139]
    Kevin Smith (born 1970), filmmaker (Clerks, Chasing Amy, Jersey Girl, etc.), wrote and filmed Clerks at a Quick Stop in the Leonardo section of Middletown.[140]
    Penelope Stout, shipwrecked on Sandy Hook in 1640s and was a founder of Middletown.[141]
    E.W. Swackhamer (1927–1994), television director.[142]
    Symphony X, band whose members (except Russell Allen) are from New Jersey.[citation needed]
    Bob Tucker (born 1945), former tight end in the NFL for the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings.[143]
    James van Riemsdyk (born 1989), drafted second overall in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, he has played for the Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs.[144]
    Billy Van Zandt (born 1957), actor/playwright.[145]
    Steven Van Zandt (born 1950), solo rocker, guitarist for Bruce Springsteen’s E Street Band and actor on The Sopranos.[146]
    Max Weinberg (born 1951), Late Night with Conan O’Brien band leader and drummer of Bruce Springsteen’s E Street Band.[147]
    Bill Weber (born 1957), NBC sports broadcaster.[148]
    Tom Wilkens (born 1975), Olympic swimming medalist.[149]
    Brian Williams (born 1959), NBC News anchorman.[150]

  38. Punch My Ticket says:

    640k is more than anyone will ever need. – The richest man in these United States

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