From Bloomberg:
Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Probably Eased in January
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably eased in January, reflecting a pause in momentum for the industry coming off its best year since 2007, economists said before a report today.
Purchases fell 0.8 percent to a 4.9 million annualized rate last month from December’s 4.94 million, according to the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Other data may show consumer prices were contained in January and a measure of the economic outlook for the next three to six months climbed.
A sustained pickup in housing will depend on faster progress in the labor market, fewer foreclosures and easier access to credit. Near record-low mortgage costs and the prospect of firming prices may induce buyers to return to the market at a time the available supply of homes is shrinking, posing a potential restraint on sales.
“Housing is still very much in recovery,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. “It could be a lot faster. We do need to see job gains continuing. Banks are a little more willing to lend, but it’s still a very gradual process.”
The Realtors’ report is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 4.7 million to 5.1 million.
From the WSJ:
Rising Prices Shrink Ranks of Underwater Borrowers
Rising home prices have helped lift more Americans out from being underwater—that is, owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth. But trying to quantify just how many borrowers are moving back above water is producing a wide range of estimates.
Zillow said in a new report Thursday that around 2 million homeowners moved back above water last year. The online real-estate company estimated that 13.8 million borrowers were underwater at the end of the year, down from 15.7 million a year earlier, a decline of around 12%. U.S. home prices rose by 5.9% last year, though bigger price gains in some of the hardest hit housing markets had an outsized impact on returning borrowers in those regions to positive equity.
Zillow’s report is the latest in a string of recent estimates by different housing analysts CoreLogic, a real-estate data company, forecasted that through the first nine months of 2012, around 1.4 million borrowers had moved “above water,” leaving 10.7 million underwater borrowers, a drop of around 12%.
Others have said that last year’s drops were bigger. Lender Processing Services, another property data firm, estimated that there were 9.8 million underwater loans at the end of last year, a 35% drop from the 15.5 million at the start of the year.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan Securities, meanwhile, estimated that the ranks of the underwater fell from 11 million to 7 million last year, a drop of around 36%. A further 5% jump in home prices would reduce the underwater population to 5 million.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimated that the number of underwater loans fell by 30% last year to around 6.6 million in December, down from 9.6 million a year earlier. (The Goldman figures don’t include second-lien mortgages, and both Goldman and J.P. Morgan use data from LPS in devising their estimates).
…
Why would negative equity fall by as much as 30% when home prices only rose by 6% last year? One reason: many of the biggest home price gains came in parts of the country that had large volumes of underwater borrowers. “If this correlation persists in the coming years, the underwater problem could fade much faster than implied by the speed of national house prices appreciation,” said Goldman researchers.
From Bloomberg:
Banks Use Punishment to Ditch Troubled Loans: Mortgages
Banks that agreed to help troubled borrowers as part of a settlement with regulators over foreclosure misdeeds are spending most of the promised aid on sales that displace homeowners.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), and three other banks in last year’s $25 billion foreclosure-abuse settlement spent more than $13 billion through the third quarter of 2012 approving so-called short sales that let homeowners sell for less than they owe on their mortgages. The banks spent $2.6 billion reducing borrowers’ principal to help them stay in their homes. A report today by the settlement’s monitor, Joseph Smith, will show if those trends continued in the fourth quarter.
“The banks have shown a knack for sidestepping government attempts to have them redress their role in the foreclosure crisis and keep people in their homes,” said Arthur Wilmarth, a law professor at George Washington University in the nation’s capital. “A lot of these efforts end up helping the banks, not the homeowners.”
you look at the chart above, you will see that gold went from about $870 all the way to about $250 over a 20-year period. That is about a 70% nominal correction. However, in real terms, the actual loss is higher. If we go over to the BLS site and play around with the numbers a little, we will find that the equivalent buying power of $870 in 1980 is about $1,870 in 2001 terms. So if we run the numbers, we find out that the total loss in real terms is 87%.So those who held on to gold all those years, thinking gold was money, lost their “gold money.” Of course, all those who held on have recovered today, but not by much. Also, those who bought gold all those years lost out on the biggest bull market in history, both in equities and in fixed income. So the total loss was even higher in more ways than one.Many say gold is a store of value. Gold can indeed be a store of money, but so can vintage Fender guitars, 100-year-old wine, art, and land. And just as the price for a vintage Fender guitar goes up and down (as with land and wine), so does the value of gold go up and down.Given that the value of gold goes up and down like anything else and is not a constant, then it should be treated like everything else. In other words, it should be considered an asset that you can buy and sell from time to time and record capital gains.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1088141-will-2013-be-the-year-that-gold-dies
Good Morning New Jersey
From CNBC:
Springsteen’s ‘Born to Run’ House for Sale
“I was living in a small house in Long Branch, New Jersey, up the coast from Asbury,” Bruce Springsteen’s narration says over super-8 footage and photos in the opening moments of the 2005 documentary “Wings for Wheels: The Making of Born to Run.” “One day I was playing guitar on the edge of the bed working on some song ideas and the words ‘born to run’ came to me.” Later in the film, Springsteen revisits his former home where he wrote the album’s title track, and “Thunder Road” and “She’s the One.”
That small Long Branch cottage has just been listed for sale with Keller Williams Realty. The Realtor, Susan McLaughlin, remembers the Boss, like any longtime shore-dweller worth their salt water taffy. She lived across the street when Springsteen was a resident, in 1974 and ’75, and says he was very much the local celebrity at the time. But although at 25 he’d already made two records, the ballad he wrote in this house, “Born to Run,” was the one that would ignite his career.
5. Want!
6 – Purchased in 2009 for $280k and now asking $349k?
Good luck with that one, if they were looking for quick flip profit, they would have probably done better buying Fenders.
From Bloomberg:
Americans in Poll See Housing Market Boosting Economic Growth
Americans, by a margin of more than 3 to 1, expect the housing market to improve over the next 12 months, part of a broader brightening in their outlook for the economy, according to a Bloomberg National Poll.
Fifty percent of poll respondents say the market will continue to get better in 2013 compared with only 16 percent who say they expect it to decline. An additional 31 percent say the market will stay about the same.
Peak price of $870 gold in 1980 is inflation adjusted to $ 1871 in 2001 and $2386 in 2012.
At the low of $212 in 1980 it is equivalent to $448 in 2001 and $581 in 2012
Peak price of gold $870 is at 1600 today what it should be in 2012 is at 2386 to break even
I thought everyone here dumped gold in the 1800 range. I sold too early, in the 1600s and 1700s, hell, even my mom did better than that (scrap physical). I dumped the paper gold way earlier that that, maybe mid 1300s.
My basis was in the mid-hundreds, hell I sold some I purchased in the 3’s and 4’s, but that don’t count. Heck, I remember bringing film canisters full of ducats back from eastern europe back in the day. My mom? She buys scrap at garage sales, her basis doesn’t even touch triple digits. She has a better margin than even those gold miners on the discovery channel. Diving for gold in the ocean from rickety boats? Idiots, they could make just as much money scouring the garage sales on weekends.
Re: #6- grim – maybe it’s Bob Dylan flipping celeb musicians homes?
http://abcnews.go.com/m/story?id=8335824
So much for holding value
5 Why not just auction off the toilet he took a dump in at the Stone Pony? What a waste.
Investor David probably takes the cake around here when it comes to gold. I know he did very well selling most of his real estate at or near peak price, and I know he had turned relatively bullish on gold circa late 2005 and actively discussed rotating a sizable amount of his real estate proceeds into gold. He disappeared and we haven’t heard back in quite a long time, wondering how he did. Timed two bubbles back to back? Kudos, I didn’t have the balls for it.
How about this gem, gold was trading around 475 at this time:
InvestorDavid says:
October 9, 2005 at 7:06 am
Grim,
Maybe the biggest factor would be dropping the rate to 1% by A.G. et al?
Since most of us believe that the bubble will burst, maybe we should spend some time discussing what will be the next big bubble?
Gold looks real good and I still remember Gold going over $800 in late 70′s (someone said that it is equivalent to about $2500 in current dollar).
Maybe next big bubble will be gold? Gold always does well during a time of unstable economy, recession and especially during depression.
grim (2)-
Who coulda seen this coming?
“The banks have shown a knack for sidestepping government attempts to have them redress their role in the foreclosure crisis and keep people in their homes,” said Arthur Wilmarth, a law professor at George Washington University in the nation’s capital. “A lot of these efforts end up helping the banks, not the homeowners.”
BTFD.
14
I missed reading those investment qoutes during that time. At least they give you their reasoning on their positions not just calling names to make a point.
Feels puffy, but I never post anything on Mercer, so here goes:
Mercer County housing market is heating up, real estate agents say
Realtors in the area seem to be agreeing with Punxsutawney Phil this year that spring — and the spring market — has come early.
Activity in the area’s real estate market has seen a boost recently, with both housing prices and the number of units sold seeing a distinctive jump in the last months of last year.
The spark of recent action has led the median home price in the Mercer County area to rise 12.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012, when compared to the numbers from the fourth quarter 2011, a report compiled by the National Association of Realtors showed.
“I would refer to it as a flurry in the marketplace,” said Emily Van Dyke, a property broker for the Gloria Nilson real estate office in Pennington. “It’s a brisk market right now.”
Van Dyke would know. The Pennington and Hopewell area where her office is based saw one of the biggest upticks in the region in the number of units sold during the fourth quarter of 2012, according to numbers compiled by Prudential Fox & Roach Realtors Research Division. When compared to fourth quarter 2011 numbers, the amount of units sold in Pennington was up 73 percent during the fourth quarter of 2012, with that number jumping 45 percent in Hopewell Township and 35 percent in Hopewell Borough during the same period of time.
East Windsor and Ewing also saw a notable change in that time frame, with jumps of 61 and 21 percent of units sold respectively, according to the same Prudential numbers.
Guns and Ammo are the current bubble.
19 – That isn’t a tradable play at all, the only ones profiting on this action are the gun dealers. Investing in individual gun manufacturers seems much too risky given the regulatory situation. Hell, the largest domestic manufacturer, Freedom Group, isn’t even public. Did Cerberus even sell it post-Newtown, or was it all just for show? S&W? Ruger? Not at those levels.
the paper price of gold/silver will only remain important for so long. I am in the camp of those who believe the paper price will trend down while the price of the actual metal will rise and diverge permanently one day. The market is rigged/manipulated/fraudulent/(insert fav word here), and I do not believe the fair market value of actual PMs is discovered yet. Thus, silver at $30 an ounce to me today is (imo) the best store of value.
(Gold/Silver price ratio vs gold/silver ratio pulled out of ground/industrial uses/monetary history)
Watch a youtube video of how much labor and equipment goes into mining one ounce of silver.
20 – my FILaw has liquidated a lot of ammo recently from his storage for folks at the shooting club. Small change, but if done in mass…hmm. Anyone want to open a retail web based storefront. I can build the site, need some financial backing and business partner :)
Anyone want to open a retail web based storefront.‘
Not located in NJ I hope, you know the state Assembly is set to pass a bill today requiring all ammo sales in state to be conducted in-person. I have no idea if this only applies to purchasers, I haven’t read the bill, but if it is written ambiguously enough, that’d shut you down before day 1.
http://legiscan.com/NJ/text/A3645/id/677869
This face-to-face requirement would make mail order, Internet, telephone, and any other anonymous method of ammunition sale or transfer illegal in New Jersey. Under the bill, a violator would be guilty of a crime of the fourth degree. A crime of the fourth degree is punishable by imprisonment for a term of up to 18 months, a fine of up to $10,000, or both.
If I read this right, this bill would make it illegal for me to sell you my personal ammunition (for example on this forum, or through craigslist, etc).
I already have enough .223 to fight several wars.
23 – grim, wow. One step closer, each and every day. wow.
yome – the 1980 peak will keep you from seeing the obvious, which is that the FED is creating unsterilized dollars equal to about the annual deficit. Was the gov’t running a deficit almost equal to GDP in 1980? Was the FED monetizing this deficit in 1980?
We all have to place bets, and I know I could be dead wrong. I still have plenty of retirement money in the equity markets, but I have made a concerted effort to change the balance of my meager wealth to be more heavily weighted in PMs.
Maybe there is a business model in running a weekend bus trip out to PA. Fireworks, Guns, Ammo and Shootin’. Swing through Delaware and add Tobacco to the list. The ATF would love you.
26 – There’s a wine trail in the Lehigh Valley. The bus should swing by that too.
BearsFan:
Regarding gold, if gold is such a bad investment then why:
1. Is China and Russia buying it hand over fist?
2. Are countries like Germany moving it back from NY to Frankfurt?
To me this is a concerted effort to drive the price down so all short-term future purchases and exchanges can be made without interruption.
I will worry about the price of gold once all global central banks stop printing money, which is not going to happen for a long, long time. Reading the comments from the federal reserve yesterday were pretty funny. Pure fiction writing. They will print until the dollar blows up. All the hawkish comments were just people making themselves feel good from their ivory towers.
Mortgage vs Gold – Or are they equivalent inflation hedges?
28 – Hype. I think you misread what I wrote, or my writing was misleading. To be clear, I am extremely bullish PMs (physical), and prefer Silver over Gold. I do not think in any way that Gold is a bad investment. Just the opposite.
There are a lot of gold ETFs in Frankfurt, the gold moving there is the physical that backs the paper. Some of big buyers of gold may be blocked due to AML/OFAC from buying a USA ETF.
Remember, you make money in physical by moving the prices around, up or down. Alcoa pushes aluminum prices all around for its own purposes, trading metals unless you are an expert working at a commodity desk specializing in that product is straight up gambling. Everyone remembers the infamous “Coco Conundrum” Hershey and Nestle on purpose drove Coca prices threw roof by buying massive amounts of physical to fill their warehouses. Then once they were at 110% capacity they shorted the heck out of the coco futures market. Sure enough prices fell like a brick as everyone was getting out at once, the two biggest purchasers had a full years supply almost, who was buying Coco. Then at bottom Hershey and Nestle jumped in at same time and massively went long coco on long term futures and locked in low prices for years to come.
I even saw Aloca once stop recycling alluminium, they even rented space to stockpile massive amount of cans. Had interests in recycling plants, etc. Basically they stopped recycling Alluminium for like two years, prices rose like crazy, they bet against it and then uleashed all the recycled Aluminum into market all at once, drove prices down and locked in long term futures cheap.
Commodites is a shakey business model. CFTC is a loosey goosey regulator and most deal are done outside of system. You are riding a long term cycle or plain lucky when you make money.
Grim for a few years you have to show your FID to pistol ammo and blackpowder. All my purchases have been in Pennsylvania and NY state since. I’m not letting the state audit a dealers books to find out how much I’m holding. Next think you know they are breaking down my door and shooting my dog for 500 rounds and 5 pounds of bomb making material (black powder). Even though I shoot that much each year.
BearFan:
I was agreeing with you. Sorry if you read me wrong.
FYI…Jobless claims at 362k. Same as it ever was…..
33 Hype – yes, I see now. Sorry, my bad.
As for the gold and silver:
I happened to sell my silver within a few cents and hours of the all time high, over a year ago. I remember because it’s the first time in my 20 year investment career I ever sold so close to the actual top.
I sold my gold etf in December, near 1700 I guess. Next time I buy gold it will be physical. ETFs constantly give taxable events. Gold recently seems correlated with risk appetite, which is the opposite of what I’m looking for in that asset. I’m hoping that the talk radio listeners get disgusted and bored with their gold, and start selling, and let me pick it up at a lower price.
In general, I don’t like to own things that other investors are too excited about.
Pain [32];
I looked into PA gun shows. As I read the current laws, any handgun transfer — even between private citizens — must take place & be intermediated by an FFL holder who runs a background check on the purchase — i.e., “we know what guns you have”.
#25 Bearsfan
I am betting that the Fed can
1. Can liquidate some assets they are holding at a gain which they started already
2.buy assets at a lower price when interest rates rise they are doing this monthly with printed money at a low rate with hardly no effect with inflation thanks to euro problems
3.Continue paying low rates on assets when rates go up for people holding to maturity
4.Destroy debt on paper nobody not even knowing just low value paper circulating
5.Deficits will be controlled once revenue comes in at 4 to 6% GDP
I am 5 years away from retirement.I am on safe investments only 25% on equities.Although tempted to put more if there is a 10% correction.This is my personal opinion and got money where my mouth is and where I am putting my bet.Most will disagree.Time will tell.
I dont like to bet against the fed where they hold dollars can print and destroy bought assets
All bets off if dollar looses status as world reserve currency. No currency can replace that as of today
“yome – the 1980 peak will keep you from seeing the obvious, which is that the FED is creating unsterilized dollars equal to about the annual deficit. Was the gov’t running a deficit almost equal to GDP in 1980? Was the FED monetizing this deficit in 1980? “
grim (10),
Interesting, your mom must have developed a good eye for differentiating gold from gold plated.
That Gold Rush show on Discovery is pretty interesting, but it’s pathetic that they struggle to break even when gold is over $1500. Whatever they are doing, it’s very unprofessional. I remember when real gold mines made money at $350.
Moose the backround check is also run for long guns but it does not include firearm type only that a background check was performed. Besides I was only talking about ammo, know an FFL in jersey who works in a gun dept. the stazi NJST audit their ammo books regularly that was enough for me to stop purchases in state. shame miss going to the local store BSing for a while and walking out with a bunch of rounds.
Yome,
Good luck. I’ve been looking for safe investments and don’t see any. Cash and fixed income appears likely to generate negative real returns, equities positive but volatile returns. Renting real estate to government dependents appears to be the surest way to generate steady yields, but that return comes from work more than investment.
#29
A fixed rate mortgage have a constant amount paid monthly.A $100 monthly today will be worth $98 next years money at 2% inflation and will be $96.04 the year after with the same inflation rate and so on.A 100 monthly payment in 1982 to today is worth 41.05 to todays money. With a 3% inflation and 3% interest rate you are paying 0 interest.
“Mortgage vs Gold – Or are they equivalent inflation hedges?”
Floating rate investment grade corporate paper…….
grim says:
February 21, 2013 at 8:38 am
Mortgage vs Gold – Or are they equivalent inflation hedges?
Ragnar,
I know what you are saying very hard I am stayin positive at 3 to 4% with the help of equity
[36] moose
That’s correct. One gambit I employed when I bought a couple of handguns (from dealers) was to buy just before moving out of state. I bought mine in New Hampshire, saving on sales tax and hassle, before moving to MD/VA. Then, while in PA, I bought longs before moving to NJ.
My armory investment has been my best one by far. I could sell my Mini-14 for 3X what I paid for it, and my .223 has probably tripled as well.
#41
a $100 I pay today on a mortgage is equivalent to $41.05 to when I first took the mortgage in 1982
Nom to your point a good number of my purchases have been in the deep south at pawn shops.
What a lame and tame crowd this has become. You sound like a bunch of accountants with comb overs. Meanwhile, we’re all getting reamed up the @ss at the cost of everything and anything without regress. If we can’t start a revolution, at least ridicule something or somebody while oxygen is still free.
If you think inflation right now is less than 3%, you’re kidding yourself. The only major item in the cost of living that is (now) decreasing is the cost of housing. And that is only if comparing to the peak and not counting the last few years of rental increases.
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 9:32 am
Ragnar,
I know what you are saying very hard I am stayin positive at 3 to 4% with the help of equity
I’ve been going back to analyzing long term economic and political trends, and what I see suggests that there are a hell of a lot more headwinds than tailwinds when it comes to real estate. Although I fought it, I now agree with Grim and many others on this board who feel that suburbs are the worst places to buy for the long term. And in what has to be a seismic shift, the wife now agrees with me.
In my area, the priciest housing is in the house farms that got hammered in other parts of the country. This is exburban living here and it relies both on a healthy local economy and low gas prices. Both of those are suspect. There are a lot of other headwinds that we have discussed here, with the big ones being state and local taxes and fees and federal income tax treatment. And there are still others that I see as long term threats.
This isn’t to say we are entering the Dark Ages (okay, Clot says it), but we are most assuredly heading toward a Euro-style economy and tax/benefit structure, and I predict that the vaunted home ownership rate will trend below 60% within 8 years, buoyed only by price decreases after this short term dead cat bounce.
So, while I am still “looking”, my screen has tightened so much that it is pretty unlikely that we will end up buying. If we do, our number one criteria is that house can be rented out easily (SFH rentals are still pretty rare in this area; nearly everything I have seen is in a sucko area or carries a pretty high rent). We don’t ever expect to be able to sell it for what we will pay so we are approaching it from the perspective that we will be involuntary landlords.
We will still invest in rural land based on our nompound screen, and have had some success moving this project forward. The biggest hangup is finding a suitable property as the nompound screen is very exacting and any property that meets the screen is prohibitively expensive.
Further to the debate re: RE vs. shiny vs. guns and ammo. I calculate that if I were to buy and later rent out a SFH, my pre-tax ROI would be 3-4% per year.
Not a bad return compared to big cap co dividend rates but it pales in comparison to what I have made this year in the market, and pales even further to that my guns and ammo have returned. If I had taken a portion of the money I put into the Brigadoon house and bought much more guns, ammo and high cap mags in 2008, I could have wiped out the loss I took on the Brig house.
48 joyce
If inflation is higher than 3 percent I am making money on my mortgage with interest rate of 3 percent. Money is loosing faster in value while my biggest expense remain constant
Why do we arbitrarily pick the top in 1980? How about 1970 @ $37/oz… there, run your numbers with that as a starting point.
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 6:52 am
Peak price of $870 gold in 1980
How are you making money paying a mortgage? Please help me out with that one. You said your personal returns are 3ish%… meaning your investments, your income is also loosing value. Did social security (your saving grace in a few years) get a 3% increase for COLA? Didn’t think so…
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:02 am
48 joyce
If inflation is higher than 3 percent I am making money on my mortgage with interest rate of 3 percent. Money is loosing faster in value while my biggest expense remain constant
Just checked on the Hi ho and yellow I bought yesterday. Up very slightly. Overall, my shiny is down a bit but not getting killed (yet???).
Really wish I had bought more guns and ammo in 2008.
Joyce is the only point inflation calculator will let me compute a 30 yr motgage to today. You can try your own. Inflation still makes money loose value
[2] shocker
“The banks have shown a knack for sidestepping government attempts to have them redress their role in the foreclosure crisis and keep people in their homes,” said Arthur Wilmarth, a law professor at George Washington University in the nation’s capital. “A lot of these efforts end up helping the banks, not the homeowners.”
Joyce,
If inflation is 3 percent this year and I paid 3 percent in interest. Did I pay interest? It equals out. If inflation is more and interest paid is less my money is loosing less in this case it is positive no?
Making money on a mortgage is a stretch, it’s probably better viewed from the perspective of the opportunity cost of paying off your mortgage (versus investing that capital at a higher rate of return).
I know some on here joke about shoving 20 people into a McMansion turned boarding house… but that may be a strategy for younger folks. Buy a house in a commuter area near major city and pack it with roommates. In terms of ROI, you may be able to hide some of that income.
Comrade Nom Deplume says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:00 am
Further to the debate re: RE vs. shiny vs. guns and ammo. I calculate that if I were to buy and later rent out a SFH, my pre-tax ROI would be 3-4% per year.
No
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:11 am
Joyce,
If inflation is 3 percent this year and I paid 3 percent in interest. Did I pay interest? It equals out. If inflation is more and interest paid is less my money is loosing less in this case it is positive no?
No, it’s not positive.
Yes, you paid interest.
And for god’s sake, it is “losing” not “loosing” … I use the latter every now and then just to poke fun at you.
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:11 am
Joyce,
If inflation is 3 percent this year and I paid 3 percent in interest. Did I pay interest? It equals out. If inflation is more and interest paid is less my money is loosing less in this case it is positive no?
Acknowledging the financial expertise on this board is far greater than I’ll ever know, and it’s the reason I come here daily, here’s my reasoning behind silver.
Historical ratios coming out of the ground have estimates ranging from 12/15 to 1 with gold. It’s trading at 50 to 1. Most of the gold ever mined has been treasured, with very light industrial use. Silver, otoh, is the best conductor of electricity among the elements, is in every TV, photo, IGadget etc. Much of this silver now lies in garbage dumps, too costly to recycle. Add in declining ore grades, making it (all metals) more expensive and costly to get at going forward. JJ hinted at a key phenomena I expect to occur one day, which is, what if one day Apple decides they need to make a strategic purchase for their devices, and takes a few thousand tons out of circulation. Now add in the market manipulation (I think SLV added over 500 tons last month and the price hardly moved), and I end up in the same place. I want to buy as much of it as I can.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-17/slv-etf-adds-record-572-tons-silver-one-day-more-all-2012
Joyce,
If I paid the bank 100 and due to infltion tha bank tells me it is only worth 97. On the hundred is a interest I paid 3 dollars is 97 principal still no?
Why Should Taxpayers Give Big Banks $83 Billion a Year?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-20/why-should-taxpayers-give-big-banks-83-billion-a-year-.html
(nothing new here)
Jouce
What can I say. Trying my best here.gaddam foreigner
Losing equals loosing
Can someone define city versus suburb for me? The definitions are incredibly different depending on your geography.
We talk about these demographic trends, and a push inward towards urban centers, but really, what does that mean?
Does it mean everyone tries to shoehorn into Manhattan? Is that even realistic?
Or is it more likely that the kids take up residence in West New York, Weehawken, Lyndhurst, or elsewhere?
Grim (from yesterday): Where did you get your kitchen cabinets? They are exactly what I am looking for and the closest thing I found is from Cliq Studios.
[59] Joyce,
“In terms of ROI, you may be able to hide some of that income.”
But that would be illegal. ;-)
Merillat Masterpiece actually, they are somewhere between custom and semi-custom from a pricing perspective, but probably the best white shaker inset we were able to find at a reasonable price (although realize there is no such thing as reasonable if you are talking inset, most everyone will charge a 20 or 30% premium, or even double if you go with the crazy full-custom shops).
https://njrereport.com/images/ghupdates5.jpg
Nickel hinges and seeded glass as well
I have no idea what you’re trying to say below; I can only speculate.
Why do you blindly and naively assume inflation at whatever % affects EVERYTHING equally? This have never been true. Healthcare rising at god knows how much, housing (recently) being a seesaw, food slowly but surely rising, oil volatile, etc etc etc Oh, I almost forgot. The price of wages? For the average (soon to be extinct) middle class person… steady to falling in real terms.
If your income is increasing below the rate of inflation = not good
If your savings/investments/etc all-in are increasing below the rate of inflation = not good
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:17 am
Joyce,
If I paid the bank 100 and due to infltion tha bank tells me it is only worth 97. On the hundred is a interest I paid 3 dollars is 97 principal still no?
Nom have friends looking in Asheville NC and the Smoky mountains of Virginia. When we were in NC over the holidays picked up the local real estate rag and there where plenty of properties at or below NJ prices on 20-50 acres. The problem is finding one appropriately situated. At least the winters are more moderate good resources and summers aren’t wholly oppressive.
for instance here are a couple
http://www.ashevillencrealty.com/realestate/detailview/91//515551/
This one would be perfect
http://www.ashevillencrealty.com/realestate/detailview/90//516358/
Also Step-ups, kickerbonds, Ibonds, MBS paper tied to adjustables, Inverse floaters, I bought some crazy stuff like that in 1993 and early 1994 for my Mom on CDs that were rolling off. I stopped in Mid 1994 and bought fixed paper up till her last bond purchase in Summer 2001. Also stocks with pricing power and rising dividends are good.
chicagofinance says:
February 21, 2013 at 9:30 am
Floating rate investment grade corporate paper…….
grim says:
February 21, 2013 at 8:38 am
Mortgage vs Gold – Or are they equivalent inflation hedges?
70 joyce
I dont. I am explaining that my current mortgage today at 3 percent and you are saying inflation is more than 2 percent. So I said at 3 percent I am not paying interest it equals out.
Peace! Gointnthe gym
And I’m saying you’re retarded if you don’t understand. All you keep repeating is: ‘one of my many expenses is fixed, inflation is up, therefore I make money’
There are a lot more factors to consider.
yome says:
February 21, 2013 at 10:40 am
70 joyce
I dont. I am explaining that my current mortgage today at 3 percent and you are saying inflation is more than 2 percent. So I said at 3 percent I am not paying interest it equals out.
[62] Certainly makes a case for including some hi ho in the mix of PM.
Friends of mine from work began renting a 5000 sq. ft. home. There are four of them, each pays about 800 a month in rent and gets a floor to themselves and often a private enterance. Equivalent rentals of 1250 sq ft townhomes/apartments are going for 1200$ a month and don’t come with granite countertops, walk in closets, garden tubs, and media rooms.
I asked one of them about water/heating and he just laughed because even if the electric bill comes to 600$ a month that is only 150$ per person which wouldn’t have been any lower if they were living in a 1250 sq ft apartment. I asked if his roomates are annoying and he said, “I don’t know because I rarely know when they are home, it is such a big house.” With barely any yard to mow, because the house is oversized for the lot, there isnt much complaining about doing yard work.
Joyce,
About inflation adjusting dollars and payment amounts…
Yome has underlying assumptions that are often not explicitly stated and you are right to question the validity of the assumptions. One is that if core inflation is at 3% then over the long term all assets will rise by 3%. The problem is that the definition of “long term” is different for different asset classes. In this case he is talking specifically about housing as an asset. Historically “long term” has meant 30 years because that is the length of the longest mortgage that is widelly available.
Unfortunately, because 30 years in the past we were in the 80’s it appears that he is “cherry picking” his dates to reinforce his point. Look back over a longer timeline and it appears that his assumption still holds true though. Housing is rising approximately close to the rate of inflation.
One thing that Yome is neglecting to take into his calculations is taxes, maintenance, and repair of the home. On the positive side of the ledger are the implicit value he derives from having a roof over his head and good schools and community for his children as well as any produce or rent that he derives from the property.
Yes he is oversimplifying the calculation but does that mean his observation doesn’t have merit? One important thing to derive from his observation is that the headwind of the mortgage in the financial calculation has now turned into a tailwind. The mortgage has been moved from the “con” side of the ledger to the “pro” side of the ledger. This doesn’t in itself mean “run out and buy the largest, most expensive property you can find so that you will have the biggest mortgage possible” which is what I think you are interpreting from Yome’s statements.
Nicholas,
(77)
Nice story. I wonder how (if) much more of that is going on.
(78)
My main complaint with yome and inflation is he does not consider the fact that every ‘mainstream’ inflation statistic does not include the price of wages. If one’s income is flat, mortgage is flat, other costs rise… how is that a better situtation? Yes, over longer period’s of time incomes tend to rise across the board… but not the past decade and definitely not year to year.
Nicholas,
How old are these folks, if I may ask? Sharing a home with other people, no matter how large, is just not an optimal living structure. Well, to me at least.
#69: Thanks for the tip. My sister swears by Merillat and she sells R.E. in the Research Triangle (Hi, Lynn, if you’re lurking here!). I love the inset doors; I’ll have to see how much of a premium there is. Where did you get them? I have my excellent Portuguese contractor from Newark, but I’d have to do all the buying/legwork myself.
IMO, it’s not time to exit Ag, Au, Pt until hairdressers are buying physical and telling you why, where, and how. Anybody exiting the condo market on that metric also did very well.
Yum! Yum! Get ’em while they are hot!
Cusip Issue Name Coupon Maturity Ratings Call Settle Yield to Maturity Offer Price
6122212L4 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.500 03/01/2025 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.617 98.80
6122212M2 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.625 03/01/2026 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.693 99.259
6122212N0 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.625 03/01/2027 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.776 98.259
6122212P5 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.750 03/01/2028 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.894 2.915
IMO, it’s not time to exit Ag, Au, Pt until hairdressers are buying physical and telling you why, where, and how.
It’s the same thing as a house tour guide telling you it’s a great time to buy. I hear things are really heating up and there’s a lot of interest out there. :o
To be clear….disclaimer…I wouldn’t touch them with JJ’s dick…..
A 1964 Washington quarter buys more gasoline today than it did in 1964.
Perhaps I turn a Blind Eye to AC violence (or perhaps it is just not in the news), but I do not recall anything like this in AC.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-shootout-las-vegas-strip-20130221,0,477111.story
Expat,
In 1964, a quarter would’ve bought you a gallon of gas as the price per gallon was about 27 cents. Today, a 1964 quarter is worth about $1.50 because it’s 90% silver. That won’t even get you a half gallon of gas.
@ 87
But apparently a google news search turns up plenty for AC
You have to be nuts to buy a long term muni with a coupon under 3. I dont mind so much the low yield, for instance I bought a 30 year NYS bond a lower yield to call, but it has a 5.75% coupon, issue 2006, Matures 2036, callable 2016, if rates rise and it does not get called I have a large coupon. If rates shoot up with a 2.5% coupon ouch.
Chifi was rightly yelling muni Bullet Bonds from Spring 2000 to Spring 2012, but right now the yelling is Kicker bonds or go short term and lose interest now to save capital losses later.
chicagofinance says:
February 21, 2013 at 11:51 am
Yum! Yum! Get ‘em while they are hot!
Cusip Issue Name Coupon Maturity Ratings Call Settle Yield to Maturity Offer Price
6122212L4 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.500 03/01/2025 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.617 98.80
6122212M2 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.625 03/01/2026 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.693 99.259
6122212N0 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.625 03/01/2027 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.776 98.259
6122212P5 MONTCLAIR TWP N J SCH BDS
2.750 03/01/2028 AA- C 23@ 100 03/08 2.894 2.915
Gary – If you believe that, sell me all of yours at double the price($3 each). Each 90% junk silver quarter contains .1808 troy ounces of silver.
In 1964, a quarter would’ve bought you a gallon of gas as the price per gallon was about 27 cents. Today, a 1964 quarter is worth about $1.50 because it’s 90% silver. That won’t even get you a half gallon of gas.
And you couldn’t even buy one gallon of gas for a quarter in 1964, it was 31 cents/gallon. A junk silver quarter has consitently been worth 1.5-2 gallons of gas over the last couple years.
Forgot the link:
http://1960sflashback.com/1960/Economy.asp
“A 1964 Washington quarter buys more gasoline today than it did in 1964.”
True, in the US today. Gas is cheap. How about in Europe?
Wrong year in that link. Actually 30 cents/gallon in 1964:
http://1960sflashback.com/1964/Economy.asp
Current melt value of 1964 quarter.
http://www.coinflation.com/coins/1932-1964-Silver-Washington-Quarter-Value.html
The End Is Nigh (clot Hospitality Industry Edition):
Water in LA hotel tasted funny for weeks, decomposed body found in roof tower
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/water_found_cistern_hotel_tasted_SS65dZnMnbWe6yksDgR2VL
Bullard says rate rise possible by June 2014
It applies even more so in Europe. In the 1960’s $0.25 US was worth about .09p or 9/100ths of a British Pound. My guess is that at today’s spot price, $5.19 US buys more petrol today than 9 pence Sterling did in 1964.
“A 1964 Washington quarter buys more gasoline today than it did in 1964.”
True, in the US today. Gas is cheap. How about in Europe?
99 – ahh, i was referring to how much gas it would buy today in europe.
grim….did you ever see this?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_Boroson
In 2009, Boroson was teaching classes on famous old singers at the County College of Morris, the JCC in Washington Township, and the Institute for New Dimensions. He won third place in the 2009 New Jersey Society of Professional Journalists contest for sports articles in a weekly, and first place for feature articles. Commenting on reports circulating on the Internet (NJReport.com) that Boroson quietly sold his own house while urging his readers to buy houses, he responded: “In my career as a real-estate writer, I have personally never urged people to buy houses. As for my selling one of my own two houses several years ago, I wrote about it in my column several times–and Kiplinger’s (with a readership in the millions) featured me in a story about people who had recently sold their houses, with a full page photo of me. The person circulating these libelous stories about me, who calls himself Grim and is named James Bednar, is a shameless liar.”
I almost took a sh!t in my pants I was laughing so hard.
101 – that’s great!
Amazing all the crap I say and Grim is the one in hot water over his comments.
About 2.6 litres at 132p/litre. In 1964 that 9p would have bought you 0.68 litres, assuming that this chart is in imperalial gallons:
http://www.theaa.com/public_affairs/reports/Petrol_Prices_1896_todate_gallons.pdf
99 – ahh, i was referring to how much gas it would buy today in europe.
Whoops. In the old decimalisation it was 240d to the pound, not 100p to the pound and the 1964 petrol price is in 240d to the pound, so it’s actually 1.44 litres for the ’64 quarter back then, 2.6 litres now when exchanged for silver spot price.
chifi owe me a monitor. somebody should congratulate the “shameless liar” on his wiki infamy! someone start a page. Here is some text to start with
James Bednar aka Grim best known for gelling his chest hair and local NJ real estate blog. Grim as he likes be known has cultivated many enemies over the years chief among them Warren Boroson. Boronson, Northern NJ gadfly and real estate raconteur, has been known to shout shameless liar manically at the mention of James Bednars name. Grim’s aforementioned gelled chest hair and affable style has attracted a rogues gallery of naysayers, liberals and doomsday preppers who commune to discuss things that rarely touch upon the topic of the blog’s daily posts.
Expat,
I sold my 90% junk silver about 8 or so years ago. I stand corrected. G0d, I should’ve held a bit longer. It wasn’t an investment, I just felt like selling it. I just didn’t realize bullion/coin dealers were paying that much over face. It’s absolutely nuts!
Let’s contact Borsoson and have an online debate with Grim. We can have Clot as the mediator. We can all submit questions.
After the event Boroson can give a lecture on famous old singers. Just like the ones he wasted student’s time and money at the County College of Morris.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYEJ0MhMYJ4
101 – Did you make that up?
Or did somebody delete it already?
Does it mean everyone tries to
shoehorngentrify into Manhattan? Is that even realistic?Yes. “I just got a great place, it’s in Central Park North.”
Grim (111):
Somebody deleted it in the past 15 minutes.
Hype I’m so glad a quality education like that is occurring in my backyard, really 1.5 miles from CCM. Maybe I won’t send the kids to community college after all.
You can still view the prior version….
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Warren_Boroson&oldid=524187856
Pain [114];
All that matters if that they get the credential (AS; transferable credits, etc.). Education is to be found elsewhere.
It looks like the first ‘rebuttal’ mentioning Grim was the 24 July 2008 version – conveniently done anonymously. On the other hand, someone who would appear to be Boroson himself made numerous and considerable revisions to the article both before and after that date, without bothering to alter the paragraph mentioning Grim.
Washington quarters are a great way to keep tabs on what the true commodity cost is of everything. See how much you can actually buy or sell one for and then divide by .1808 and that is the *true* price of silver. I don’t think a week goes buy that I don’t ask myself how much gas I can buy for a 90% silver quarter or how much labor can I buy for 1/10 ounce of gold.
Fast Eddie says:
February 21, 2013 at 1:06 pm
Expat,
I sold my 90% junk silver about 8 or so years ago. I stand corrected. G0d, I should’ve held a bit longer. It wasn’t an investment, I just felt like selling it. I just didn’t realize bullion/coin dealers were paying that much over face. It’s absolutely nuts!
Just read some of the old posts regarding Boroson just to understand what the hell you guys were talking about. Interesting read.
It would have been nice if all blog sites weren’t blocked at my old job. Probably could have saved me hundreds of thousands of dollars if I happened upon your blog at thtat time Grim.
I guess my old company thought people would blog all day and slack off on the job or something (JJ???).
Expat, I think I have about a dozen or so of those coins. I don’t know why but I used to go to collectables shops when my buddy would try and sell his baseball cards and buy them. I should look them up and see what they’re worth.
Is today’s silver spot price too low or too high by that measure?
118.The Original NJ Expat says:
February 21, 2013 at 2:08 pm
Washington quarters are a great way to keep tabs on what the true commodity cost is of everything. See how much you can actually buy or sell one for and then divide by .1808 and that is the *true* price of silver. I don’t think a week goes buy that I don’t ask myself how much gas I can buy for a 90% silver quarter or how much labor can I buy for 1/10 ounce of gold.
[115] Pete
I’m sure this is destined to become a Boronson best seller:
“The Reverse Mortgage Advantage : The Tax-Free, House Rich Way to Retire Wealthy! McGraw-Hill, 2006”
“The Reverse Mortgage Advantage”
Old Folks who took them out Spring 2004-Spring 2008 are the smart ones now. Even better if it was on a Sandy Wrecked home!!!
Best book ever:
http://www.amazon.com/Are-Missing-Real-Estate-Boom/dp/0385514344
Ahh David Diarhea or David the Liar. His ponitfication for the NAR made Baghdad Bob blush. Many a screed had been written on Patrick.net and housing bubble blog on that rag. It can’t still be in print.
And here’s a wonderful review about David’s book. This is priceless:
The real estate market still remains extremely hot in Florida and David Lereah’s book is an invaluable tool for anyone yearning to become a savvy investor. His book makes perfect sense for middle America to build wealth in real estate and gives you the tools to do so. Here are some examples of proof that the market remains extremely strong: Investors in certain pre-construction single family communities have incurred substantial gains from their original deposits in October 2004 with closings scheduled for Dec. 2005–by then gains may be much more.
Other investors that have recently sent in down payments for pre-construction carriage homes have also incurred very promising gains. I recently encouraged a family member to take advantage of a condo conversion and now has been her first chance to build wealth in real estate. David Lereah is 100% correct and extremely helpful.
If you still don’t believe how strong the real estate market is, let me fill you in….There are at least 4-5 buyers for each home that is to be released pre-construction in this area and not everyone gets lucky enough to get in on the release. Do we think this will come to a horrible crash? No. Why not? Because of many reasons, especially for Florida. Millions of current working age Americans are now investing in their future and into secondary and retirement homes. Within the next several years to come they will be purchasing and/or moving into these homes. The interest rates are also not increasing drastically and are at a historical low. Even as they increase in small increments, they remain at a historical low.
If you are truly serious about learning how you can profit from real estate in a variety of logical and proven ways then David Lereah’s book is a must for you!
Sincerely,
Dawn xxxx
Realtor
Naples, Florida
This is beautiful:
David Lereah’s book is intensely interesting reading for homeowners, home buyers and anyone interested in becoming wealthier in the booming real estate areas in this country. He defines the new age buyers (baby boomers and echo boomers)and explains why they are able to afford second homes, investment homes and vacation properties and why they prefer doing that in some cases to investing in the stock market volativity.
He explains the homebuying process very completely, so that the first time homeshopper can intelligently approach a sometimes very unsettling situation with much more confidence and understanding of the market he/she is entering. I think the book is organized very effectively for smooth sailing through lots of data and numbers which Mr. Lereah is extremely qualified to disperse. The fact that he does this with style makes the book a joy to read.
For a beginning investor in real estate or a savvy investor with experience, there is new and valuable information for helping one acquire more wealth by balancing one’s financial portfolio with what Mr. Lereah believes, as I do, is America’s greatest investment–real estate.
I’m trying to keep myself from laughing out loud:
Hats off to Dr. David Lereah for defying those naysayers and proponents of a real estate bubble. I personally experienced a bubble burst in 1981 in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. What many forget is that interest rates were hovering between 16% and 21% that year and inflation was running at around 13%.
Dr. Lereah has clearly spelled out the basis for his arguments and these can be ascribed to two simple issues – low interest rates and demographics.
The book is an excellent resource for first time homebuyers, those who are considering moving up in the market, second home buyers and investors who are diversifying their portfolios or just buying that second home.
Facts speak for themselves and the book is full of data that supports the conclusions reached by Dr. Lereah. The National Association of Realtors has the most extensive and up-to-date data on home sales activity, including the latest projections of future sales.
I strongly recommend this book as a resource for anyone who wants to understand the homebuying or real estate investment process. The book is written in simple language that will make it a valuable investment for every reader.
I love this –> “Dr. Lereah” LMAO!!
Unlike many of today’s naysayers, this book takes a shot at analyzing the current RE market and it’s future trend by assessing facts. It’s simple for others to write articles claiming a “bubble about to burst” based on an unprecedented “run up”, but this Author backs his assessment with real facts, that quite frankly, set my mind at ease and even may have even motivated me to invest in some more property! Thank you for your efforts Mr. Lereah!! This was money well spent!!!!
OMG! LOL!!!
121 – Brian, it’s definitely a good guide, but you also have to factor in productivity improvements, new uses etc. Silver would seem to be over-priced comped to milk, but productivity improvements and subsidies could be lowering the milk price today. They also weren’t making Ipads/smartphones in 1964. It’s a great question though.
Brian – Chris Duane has made a ton of videos discussing silver and it’s value in the future, if your interested: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g8OR0zb018g
think his channel is truthnevertold
Since we’re all concerned with money and expenses, here is a very interesting article from Time magazine about why hospital and medical bills are so large (it’s big profit $$$).
I think Grim will be nodding his head at all the expenses and huge profit mark-ups.
http://healthland.time.com/2013/02/20/bitter-pill-why-medical-bills-are-killing-us/
Bernank and Lereah should be cellmates someday.
Hey Scrapple remember the good old days when those same fools would be on here, I wonder if tender vittles tastes as good to them as it does to Lireah book reviewers.
Eddie see if you can find any that come back and give a second review.
buying a book on investment decisions already means your the last sucker.
One way to get your rent money from a moocher:
http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/police-ohio-landlord-whipped-tardy-165002515.html
Eddie this one was priceless:
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
*gasps for air*
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
ha ha ha ha
ha ha hee hee hee
heh heh
*wipes tears from eyes*
Seriously though, does Amazon.com sell tar and feathers? I know they’ve got pitchforks.
Phoenix [135];
“If you’re going to act like a child, I’m going to treat you like one,” Kronenberger was quoted in the police report as telling the tenant before striking him four times with a belt. The report said the belt left “little marks.”
Methinks the person doing the quoting there is the complainant, meaning that the police report is in fact a third-hand account of what was said. Take that with a grain of salt, one should. But, the media has no trouble giving the allegation additional apparent authority by associating the quote to the police report.
I was searching for the posts about Kaylee (sp?) and tripped across it. I am stunned how quickly it was edited. Did you ever post about your daughter here? I couldn’t track down the posts…..
grim says:
February 21, 2013 at 1:18 pm
101 – Did you make that up?
111.
grim says:
February 21, 2013 at 1:19 pm
Or did somebody delete it already?
Kylie – Only one or two, mostly rants about hospital bills I think.
Halfway through the day I was feeling good, had somebody watching my back on Wikipedia, then out of the blue I get a big check in the mail. Thought it was a donation, return address was some investment manager or hedge fund in Alpine. Awesome right? Yeah, not quite, turns out it was a check for my father and it got mailed to the wrong address. So at this point, I’m thinking maybe Warren took it down so he could sue me.
I never realized I could be such a defining influence in someone’s life.
Chi – The only mental image I have of Warren is the scene you painted from some investment conference you saw him at.
Found it:
https://njrereport.com/index.php/2006/04/27/cendant-ceo-doesnt-believe-the-realtors/#comment-9148
this is what the future of America holds, gotta love the nanny state
http://shine.yahoo.com/financially-fit/family-lives-without-money–by-choice–and-thrives–190436599.html
142 – so is this some new underground government propaganda designed to get Americans to willingly accept the dramatically lower standard of living necessary to compete with the emerging economies?
How much should a will cost? Something relatively simple (not an estate plan just a who gets what, who gets the kids kind of thing).
Should pricing include a certain number of updates over the years?
Grim who knows I just look at it as only a welfare state enables that kind of behavior. Hope that kid rebels against every thing her parents stand for.
Gotta love this couple of entrepreneurs. Love the last line, part where they snub the state. “The state ordered the defendants to shut down their Web site but the page was still up and accepting donations through a Paypal account this evening.”
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2013/02/founders_of_hurricane_sandy_ch.html
grim, you want I should take care of this Warren guy?
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