From HousingWire:
Moody’s analyst cites housing recovery as risk to rental market
Moody’s Investors Service analyst and director of commercial-mortgage backed securitization research, Tad Philipp, sees a negative side to the housing recovery.
In the latest cross-sector impact report, Philipp says the loss of renters to eventual homeownership may not promote long-term sustainability to all of the apartment buildings currently under construction.
In other words, apartment construction is accelerating despite signs that renter numbers are likely to start decreasing.
Moody’s states that the “construction of new homes and sales of existing home sales will rise steadily, and an ongoing rise in housing prices and housing starts will affect the credit quality of not just housing-related corporate entities, but also local governments, financial institutions, and securitizations,” in an email accompanying the report.
Currently the home ownership rate for young adults is 28%, Philipp notes, compared to a national average of 66%.
The 28% number will likely move closer to the national average as rising house prices incentivize on-the-fence potential borrowers.
The analyst report does not parallel other datasets on the topic.
…
However, the risk may not materialize, as Philipp writes.“As the single-family housing market recovers, multifamily apartment demand will be sufficient to maintain moderate rent growth if the pace of construction remains in line with the rate of apartment absorption,” he said in the report.
From Forbes:
Mortgage Rates Stabilize As Housing Market Moderates
After months on the rise, mortgage rates have finally started to stabilize. Freddie Mac said the average 30-year fixed rate dropped to 4.31% from 4.37% last week.
While this decline comes on the heels of a softening 10-year Treasury yield, rates are significantly higher than last year’s average of 3.49%.
Moody’s: the same corrupt chop-shop that labeled billions of dollars of arsewipe as AAA. I’ll take the other side of whatever their call is.
Fannie and Freddie seem to be money making machines lately, from Bloomberg:
UBS to Pay $885 Million to Settle U.S. Mortgage Suit
UBS AG (UBSN), Switzerland’s largest bank, agreed to pay $885 million to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to settle claims that it improperly sold them mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble, a U.S. regulator said.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency claimed Zurich-based UBS misrepresented the quality of loans underlying billions of dollars in residential mortgage-backed securities purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The firms have operated under U.S. conservatorship since 2008, when they were seized amid subprime mortgage losses that pushed them toward insolvency.
…
“The satisfactory resolution of this matter provides greater clarity and certainty in the marketplace and is in line with our responsibility for preserving and conserving Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s assets on behalf of taxpayers,” Acting Director Edward J. DeMarco said in an e-mailed statement.
Fog-a-mirror, coming back with a vengeance:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-25/regulators-fold-lift-skin-game-rules-keep-housing-bubble-dreams-alive
“One of the risks that we face now is that there is still a pretty significant part of the population that is having considerable difficulty accessing mortgage credit,” even though they may be credit-worthy, said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week in testimony on Capitol Hill.
It’s 2005 all over again. Inflate the next bubble, let it explode and just print more money to cover it up.
85 bilion to become 100-120 billion a month in fresh electronic money coming when Yellin takes over in January to help dig us deeper into the abyss to support this 2005 insanity all over again.
for those who missed it, I highly recommend to check NOT RAGNAR’s post this past Monday 22nd. It is one of the early ones in the morning.
It was described by several people as “epic”. Epic indeed.
Good weekend all!
It was a good rant elevated to epic by the buffoonery. If it were factual, it just wouldn’t have been nearly as funny.
NWNJ agreed it was so epically dumb that the majority of us didn’t even respond.
Hype if my 1500 square feet hits 500K I’m out of here, but I don’t think we will see the same run up in prices. Hell I have been wrong before though.
[6] anon
I’ll go along with “epic.” Buts that’s only half a description.
[5] hype
Ben says that they are creditworthy yet they are having difficulty accessing credit?
Isn’t the sin qua non of creditworthiness the ability to access credit?
Besides, the Fed has no credibility when it comes to the home mortgage market. It was the Fed that held banks feet to the fire to make the loans that burned them in the first place.
In JC a few buildings near me have more vacancies than I’ve ever seen. Plus a lot of new construction around again – (all rentals, no condos).
Has anyone else noticed any evidence of rental vacancies rising or falling rents. I’m not sure if I’m dreaming as all you hear in the press is tight supply.
Rentals near me are tight, but we have very little inventory in this area.
anon (6)-
Did he convince you to become a bull semen collector? If not, please consider it.
Please also consider killing yourself.
“for those who missed it, I highly recommend to check NOT RAGNAR’s post this past Monday 22nd. It is one of the early ones in the morning.
It was described by several people as “epic”. Epic indeed.
Good weekend all!”
A little Meredith Whitney to tune us up for the weekend.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100909014
In other news, Barbara Buono picks her running mate:
Milly Silva, vice president of SEIU 1199, which represents 7,000 nursing home workers in 74 facilities, will be announced as Buono’s choice for lieutenant governor Monday during an event at a Meadowlands hotel, according to three sources familiar with the decision who requested anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss internal deliberations.
In selecting Silva, political observers say Buono is trying to energize Hispanics and labor — two core Democratic groups — in her long-shot campaign against Republican incumbent Gov. Chris Christie. Silva — relatively unknown among the state’s political establishment — also gives the campaign another female voice to attack Christie on his cuts to women’s health.
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2013/07/buono_taps_hispanic_labor_leader_as_running_mate.html#incart_river_default
She lives in the People’s Republic of Montklair.
Probably a bit of an anomaly due to the PATH-Sandy issues……just a guess, but it makes sense…..the bellyaching from those transient morons was pretty intense several months ago…..
Richard says:
uly 26, 2013 at 10:34 am
In JC a few buildings near me have more vacancies than I’ve ever seen. Plus a lot of new construction around again – (all rentals, no condos).
Has anyone else noticed any evidence of rental vacancies rising or falling rents. I’m not sure if I’m dreaming as all you hear in the press is tight supply.
but does she perform placenta encapsulation?
Not Ragnar’s post was so epic on Monday the 22nd! Until that post I never understood how essential high taxes in the Northeast were to prevent us from degenerating into the wasteland of lowbred southerners. As Not Ragnar pointed out, the South is 30% to 40% black – I didn’t quite understand the implications of this point, but hope to hear more from this poster in the future! Here in NJ it is such a privilege to be surrounded by the highly cultured and organic civil servants working in strong unions that our taxes secure for us, and the enlightened citizenry that this in turn attracts. Take the public-minded and richly diverse community of Montclair, who I hear are sending missions to both China and Florida (winter only) to try to educate and elevate those lesser people from their current barbarous state.
New Rutgers AD a stone cold muffer , just wonderful for the State
Barbara Buono to host welcome party for new Rutgers AD.
http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2013/07/most_of_jersey_citys_montgomery_gardens_public_housing_complex_is_wrecking_ball_bound_officials_say.html
Richard says:
uly 26, 2013 at 10:34 am
In JC a few buildings near me have more vacancies than I’ve ever seen. Plus a lot of new construction around again – (all rentals, no condos).
Has anyone else noticed any evidence of rental vacancies rising or falling rents. I’m not sure if I’m dreaming as all you hear in the press is tight supply.
Edgewater has a slug of rentals coming onto the market . (rentals)
[19] freedy
Well, that pretty much handcuffs anyone who had the long knives out for her.
And it will be nice seeing men’s hoops and football return to mediocrity when she guts the programs in order to fund volleyball. I don’t want the competition.
Go green, Jersey
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/energy/stories/the-best-place-for-solar-power-is-new-jersey?hpt=hp_bn18
It wouldn’t surprise me to hear next that Rutgers AD has something hanging. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgOIEGz7o_s
Complain all you want on the politics. Health care reform is here and there are clear benefits. #affordable
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/26/obamacare-premiums-maryland_n_3661017.html
Fabu [26];
The NYT already tried selling that story — Claimed individual premiums dropping from $1,000 to $577. The only problem is that a comparable individual policy was available for around $300. “Cutting premiums in half” actually meant raising them by 1/2 — just like Obama did with the deficit! Pick your meme – 1) math is hard, especially to liberal art majors that populate the DNC and the media; 2) The clients of the Obamacare state believed them, which is all that really matters.
Wall Street Journal
WEEKEND INVESTOR
July 26, 2013, 6:20 p.m. ET
.How to Win a Bidding War
We offer advice on how to get a fair price—without being outbid at every turn..
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324144304578624104001847008.html?mod=ITP_businessandfinance_4
Win a house in Detroit!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/07/funniest-and-most-absurd-real-estate.html
Fist pump alive and well in Belmar.
http://videos.nj.com/star-ledger/2013/07/video_daytime_techno_beach_par.html#incart_m-rpt-1
#45 <oose
Fair enough, lets start running numbers. I say your $300 policy is going to have a sky high deductible.
I have a friend 40yo self employed female single in the city. Her current plan was running over $1k a month. It will be interesting to see what the exchanges offer her.
Scrapple [48];
Anyone know how that Australian website selling income properties in Detroit is faring these days?
At the balloon fest…..
Fab [50];
If you want to go run down some numbers, knock yourself out. The point to be amde once you take off the NYT’s blinders was that NY already had the Cadillac plans mandates that Obamacare imposes on the entire nation. When you add in Obamacare subsidies, the NY “price” comes down. When you compare the Obamacare price in NY to what other states without the mandates, the Obamacare price is quite a bit higher, even with the subsidies.
So if you just want to get medical treatment for a catastrophic illness, you’re paying more. If you can’t possibly go on not knowing how you might afford something like gender reassignment surgery, then Obamacare puts your mind at ease.
Juice [53];
Don’t tease me. I’d be there except I’m washing my hair and making other preparations for a date I have with the state of NJ next week.
Balloon fest sucks. The entire thing is one big money grab. Nothing is included with admission. The balloonists all seem afraid to actually FLY THE BALLOONS!! Just goes to show, put family friendly in the ad and morons from hundreds of miles away will show up to mouth breathe and drink grape soda.
@Harpers: Portion of young people attempting suicide without a gun who die from the attempt: 1/10 (Aug ’13, 1 of 2) #HarpersIndex
@Harpers: Of those attempting suicide with a gun who do: 9/10 (Aug ’13, 2 of 2) #HarpersIndex http://t.co/T7UCT7fJvJ
Obviously, everyone should have guns.
Who here will do us the favor of shooting anon?
Anon [57, 58];
Obviously guns make young people — especially the weakest among them — more effective, successful, and able to achieve their goals.
And then there’s this:
Average cost after financial aid to attend NYU for a freshman from a family making $30,000 a year or less : $25,462
Sticker price: Cost of Attendance $59,337
And there’s the real polotik of the ‘underprivileged’ NYU student – do they let him/her drop out after two years with $50k in non-dischargable student debt, or string them out for 4 (or more) years, double the debt tally, make their graduation statistics look good but still teach the kid nothing about how to function in the real world, or any marketable skill whatsoever.
Anarchists are pussies.
Scrapple n’Ricin says:
July 27, 2013 at 8:08 pm
Who here will do us the favor of shooting anon?
Balloon fest a bust, no lauch too windy. First time for me in Branchburg, I was expecting to hear banjo music. Nice rec center they have and no Cracker Barrell anywhere.
Back when my wife was getting her MBA at NYU they were just jumping left and right off balconies from the stress.
Juice [64];
Was the band at least any good?
@JohnK_Galbraith: The stock market is a political vehicle used by the upper class to legalize and legitimize the sick act of speculation on human life.
That’s too deep for me. I think the stock market is a way to transfer wealth through inflation and tax advantages.
If I wanted a daily twitter update, I go to that website.
nwnj,
Yup… it ain’t complicated.
Happy Sunday yo!h
[38] anon,
I’m happy to let you borrow one of my guns.
plume (50)-
No worries. I’ll lend this one to anon:
http://www.michaelbraun.me/files/backwardsgun.jpg
Rides open on casino pier in seaside this weekend.
LBI was looking pretty good, very little sign of damage.
Point is like it never happened.
53.5 is still rough in spots.
Drove through Mantoloking and Brick. Sandy’s wrath is still very visible there.
Funtown pier in seaside is still a pile if splintered wood and empty pilings.
anon has to be Pat…..
Dedicated to clot:
http://www.dilbert.com/2013-07-25/
This can only happen in DC or Chicago.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/28/us/dc-robbery-hate-crime/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
If it happened to me in Philly, my response would be “and this is for George Zimmerman” as I introduce them to my little friend.