What is normal?

From HousingWire:

Housing recovery rides through peaks, valleys

The housing market is now two-thirds of the way back to normal, according to Trulia’s (TRLA) latest Housing Barometer report. While existing-home sales have finally found their way back to normal levels, construction activity continues to lag.

“The recovery is not a straight line: it moves through different phases,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist.

The current phase for pending home sales shows a drop in August sales as the market remains impacted by tight inventory, rising interest rates, escalating prices and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.

The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales index took a slight dip in August, falling 1.6% from an index score of 109.4 in July to 107.7 in August. Nonetheless, August’s numbers were still 5.8% above August 2012 levels, when the index score hovered at 101.8.

The national median existing-home price is expected to rise 11% to 12% in 2013, easing to an increase of 5% to 6% next year, with general improvement expected in inventory supplies.

“Moving forward, we expect lower levels of existing-home sales, but tight inventory in many markets will continue to push up home prices in the months ahead,” said Yun.

If it’s any indicator as to how far the housing market has come, it’s now 67% back to normal, Trulia claimed.

“When we created the Housing Barometer eighteen months ago, all measures of the housing recovery were far from normal,” said Kolko “Since then, the recovery has surged ahead in many ways but languished in others. Existing home sales are 99% back to normal, while construction is just 40% back to normal. Tracking the recovery’s progress as a single number is not the best approach anymore.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

114 Responses to What is normal?

  1. Juice Box says:

    New Normal is Friskies for dinner!

  2. Bailout for me; austerity for you.

    Let it burn, mf’er!!!!!

  3. grim says:

    From the Record:

    NJ homebuilding up 39 percent over 2012 pace

    Home building in New Jersey continues to show strong signs of recovery from the worst housing downturn in decades, with construction running about 39 percent ahead of last year’s pace, according to new figures from the U.S. census.

    Through August, builders took out 15,842 building permits, compared with 11,364 in the same period last year. Multifamily construction accounted for about 59 percent of the activity.

    “Multifamily construction is what’s driving the bulk of the expansion in New Jersey,” said Patrick O’Keefe, an economist with CohnReznick, an accounting and consulting firm with offices in Roseland. Multifamily rentals are in high demand as tight mortgage standards keep many households out of the purchase market. In addition, banks are much more willing to lend to builders for construction of rentals, rather than for-sale properties.

    Single-family builders have been more cautious, O’Keefe added.

    “Single-family builders don’t have a lot of capital they want to put in the ground without being confident that it will come back as a sale,” O’Keefe said.

    The state is on track to start about 24,000 housing units this year, up significantly from last year’s 18,000 and even more from the 13,000 annual averages that prevailed during the worst of the housing downturn, from 2009 to 2011.

    But the current pace is still below the long-term averages above 30,000.

  4. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    The older the home buyer, the pickier

    When you’ve already bought one or two homes in the past, you might know exactly what you want in your next one. On top of that, you’ll probably want a home that’s move-in ready. The location might also be nonnegotiable.

    In short, the older you get, the pickier of a home shopper you are. And there’s research to back this up.

    In a survey of 93,502 recent home buyers and sellers, about half of people 58 and older made no compromises at all during their recent home purchase, according to the National Association of Realtors. Only 28% of the youngest home buyers didn’t compromise, with most making all sorts of trade-offs on price, lot size, distance from job and the style of home. In between, the older you were, the less likely you were to compromise.

    “The first-time buyer is starry-eyed and has no idea what they really need. They might want a five-bedroom and never use two of them,” said Stephen Melman, director of economic services for the National Association of Home Builders. Those in their 50s “are better than most housing consumers at knowing what they want—and won’t be shy.”

    Young buyers tend to focus on needs. They need three or four bedrooms to have enough room for their kids, said real-estate agent Leslie Piper, who is also consumer housing specialist for Realtor.com. They need to be located in a good school district.

    When you reach a certain age, you’re going after what your desires are, she added. You’ve likely raised your family, now you’re interested in focusing on what you want, not the kids.

    And you’re less willing to compromise.

  5. anon (the good one) says:

    @billmaher: I guess the Republicans really do need to shut down the government. Because technically there’s no way to shoot it

  6. Essex says:

    Normal?

  7. Grim says:

    We have a government of idiots.

  8. Don’t need no stinkin’ gubmint.

    Burn the mf’er down!!!!

  9. Have any of these clowns in DC ever done an honest day’s work?

    Wh0res, the whole scurvy lot of them.

  10. anon (the good one) says:

    @ianbremmer: Right now, the US appears more politically dysfunctional than the world’s 3 next largest economies: China, Japan & Germany.

  11. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Grim funny stuff written in Idaho. Folks 58 focuses on desire and wants in houses as they most likely have already raised their kids and no longer focus on the needed 4-5 bedrooms.

    50 year old Dads in Kindergarten is fairly common along with boomerang kids who move home after college and dont leave till almost 30 then you have the dead beat boys who cant support their wives on one income so grandma and grandpa run a child care place at home and the kids who move out of state who keep coming home every holiday.

    Two doors down from me guy has four sons. He has a double plot split. He blew the place out big 25 years ago to make room for boys. The last one moved out two years ago and then after Sandy one lost their house, the other needs child care, the other moved out of state and visits, all four boys married, grand kids. He just did a second blow out. There are more cars in his driveway today than ten years ago. I would say 55-75 is max capacity in ones house. It is the 25-55 year olds who need small houses.

  12. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Anon the big fear in washington is they will sut down the goverment and the american population will realize the scam perpetuated upon them and call for less. they want to protect their phoney baloney jobs nothing more.

  13. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Here is an example of what happens to Pre-FIRM homes starting tomorrow. FIRM is a Flood Insurance Rate Map. Most homes and bungalows on Jersey Shore, Long Beach, Far Rockaways was built before flood insurance existed. Which means elevation did not matter. You paid the same cheap rate with a basement as guy next door did on stilts. You just has to build home conforming to building code on day you build house and were grandfathered in forever.

    Look at this example of what happens starting 10-1-2013 when Biggert Waters act is fully implements.

    A one-story home with $200,000 in structural coverage and $100,000 for its contents in the most common flood zone and built at FEMA’s prescribed height will pay about $1,745 annually. The same home elevated 4 feet above the prescribed height will pay about $513 annually.

    The rates increase significantly for structures below FEMA’s elevation requirements. That one-story home, for example, would cost $5,115 annually if built 1 foot below the still-undetermined elevation standards, $8,064 if built 3 feet below and $14,308 if built 6 feet below, the new guidelines say.

    Property-owners will not see the increases immediately. However they will be imposed when the insurance policy is renewed.

    Pre-FIRM structures that have a lapsed policy will move to the full-risk rates immediately upon purchasing insurance as of Tuesday.

    Interesting part is if someone is in contract on a pre-FIRM subsidized home. In this example the home above could move from $1,745 all the way to $14,308 overnight. The old owner if a primary residence may have been grandfathered in as long as he owns house, some owners such as me are getting a 20% a year phase in till I am at full rates but in this case a brand new policy by a brand new owner bought after 10-1-2013 starts at full rate. Imagine the young couple bought a place in July, owner told him they pay $1.735, calls agent to get a quote on a policy and he says yep $1,735 they were all set to close in September but closing got pushed back to October 1st and at closing they find out their policy is now $14,308 and choice is to back out if they can if they had a clause in policy, walk away and lose deposit and close and hope for best.

    The hope for best is a rough one. As you have to hope the law is overturned. Meanwhile Activist groups such as STOPFEMANOW. Is only lobbying for existing policy holders not really for future policy holders. So doubtful you have a shot at getting relief.

    Folks think this is a shore thing, but FEMA in last ten years keeps expanding flood maps to include many towns not that close to water who will never really need it. That is how they are trying to make money. Those folks also are screwed. This in turn kills home values which in turn kills home values in towns nearby.

  14. Libturd at home says:

    ChiFi:

    Here’s another example of how lousy NJ Transit really is. You can’t blame Amtrak on this one. This morning, the Montclair Boonton line was closed due to an incident in Upper Montclair (most likely a suicide). Well I just got done driving Gator to the light rail in Bloomfield since which is not that far from Gator Jr (the 2nd’s) day care. As Lisa steps onto the light rail platform, a Clever Commute email comes through indicating that they are now taking passengers at Bay Street in Montclair. NJ transit can’t post this information on their website or shoot out an alert (we are both subscribed to this service). To get a train to Bay Street is no simple task if you can’t get a train set from the west. NJTransit had to know that they were routing this special train at least 1/2 and hour before they did. NJTransit is absolutely the worst.

  15. Brian says:

    I saw a video on CNN that claimed (among other things) that people won’t be able to get their “gun permits” as a result of a shut down. I’m not a gun owner, but I didn’t understand this. Most “permits” are issued at a state or local level. State’s that don’t require permits just have you do a NICS check at the time of purchase right? Are they saying there won’t be any NICS checks during the shutdown? Or are they full of BS?

    12.Painhrtz – Disobey! says:
    September 30, 2013 at 8:52 am
    Anon the big fear in washington is they will sut down the goverment and the american population will realize the scam perpetuated upon them and call for less. they want to protect their phoney baloney jobs nothing more.

  16. Libturd at home says:

    I hope the government is shutdown permanently. Then maybe An0n will stop spewing his one-sided, unbalanced opinions spoon fed to him from his ultra liberal sources. Anon, do you drive an Outback or a Prius? Can you think for yourself? Baa, baa.

  17. Libturd at home says:

    Watching that CNN video, perhaps we should shut the government down regularly. Maybe a week per month. This is, as long as we don’t have to pay the public sector retroactively. We should also measure the drop in productivity. I’m guessing that there will be no real measurable drop. Maybe the Repubs are smarter than we think?

  18. Brian says:

    Lonegan was campaigning in Sussex county saying that. He says he wants it shut down in order to expose what we don’t need.

    18.Libturd at home says:
    September 30, 2013 at 9:25 am
    Watching that CNN video, perhaps we should shut the government down regularly. Maybe a week per month. This is, as long as we don’t have to pay the public sector retroactively. We should also measure the drop in productivity. I’m guessing that there will be no real measurable drop. Maybe the Repubs are smarter than we think?

  19. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    My only pita is I want to lock in my home heating oil contract, the long shutdown goes on the lower heating oil goes but I have to time it. Most likely lock in tommorow. My stupid fuel company only prices daily so I cant lock in cheap today even if it is cheap today.

  20. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    nics check is a db so it shoudl still be running but they will shut it down because it will not have the ability to be updated. Brian, yes states issue but federal law still mandates a background check.

  21. Brian says:

    Lonegan addressed the possibility of a government shutdown beginning Tuesday if the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-majority Senate cannot reach an agreement on legislation to fund its operations.

    “Shut down government, please,” Lonegan said. “Because I’d rather have that battle now so that my grandchildren don’t have to have it even worse.”

    “Let’s shut down the government and find out what we don’t need,” he said.

    http://www.njherald.com/story/23558106/2013/09/28/lonegan-looks-for-support-at-franklin-rally

  22. Juice Box says:

    What shutdown? The Patent office and it’s Army of 10,000 employees will be open.

    Impact of a government shutdown

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2013-shutdown-federal-department-impact/?hpid=z2

  23. Juice Box says:

    What we don’t need? If they fired all of the Federal Government employees it would only cover 1/3rd of the deficit.

    Approximates on the rest of the Spending.
    Transfer payments is the rest about 57.3%

    Breakdown
    Health care: 23.8%
    Pensions: 22.2%

    Friskies is the new Black toss Grandma under the Bus!

  24. anon (the good one) says:

    “Anon, do you drive an Outback or a Prius?”

    Outback. Prius is too small.

  25. anon (the good one) says:

    this stuff still going on? they should all thank W

    @BreakingNews: Update: At least 36 people killed, more than 100 injured in series of car bomb blasts in Baghdad – @BBCBreaking http://t.co/lNieqUR3DW

  26. grim says:

    My Subaru has a big ass turbo and no catalytic converters.

    Does that make me the antichrist?

  27. Juice Box says:

    Grim the boy racer?

  28. anon (the good one) says:

    Libturd,
    not only i have a Subaru, but the amazing thing is that I bought it all by myself. your boy had to come
    ask here cause he doesn’t know how to buy a car

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    Juice [24];

    Lots of things would be great to have, but we just can’t afford them all. If I had to dig a ditch, I’d love to buy a new Cat for the job; but I can only afford a shovel, so all I got to show you is a$$es and elbows.

  30. Juice Box says:

    re: # 31 — Re: Afford? Who says we need to afford anything? We have Credit, we don’t ever have to pay the bill….. it’s all Unicorns from here on in.

    Here is the biggest Fairy-tale every told….Unicorns have nothing on this one.

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12853.htm

  31. Shut the whole f’ing gubmint down forever. Let the civil service leeches starve.

  32. 1987 Condo says:

    #32…that is exactly right, the requirement to increase reserves by member banks is the reason that money has not entered the system and caused the inflation that folks were predicting. Perhaps at some point we will see very high interest rates and/or wage based increases resulting in too many dollars chasing too few goods, but right now I do not see most people complaining they have too much money.

  33. grim says:

    Little known fact that the diet of unicorns consists of Frisée and aggregate M2.

  34. grim says:

    Or is it credit default swaps? I always get that mixed up.

  35. Ragnar says:

    Political coverage on Bloomberg TV this morning was pathetic. I can just imagine how much worse it is on CNN, MSNBC.

    When the media agrees with the ends of political actors, they report admiringly when those politicians “stand on principle”, and calls them idealists. When politicians they disagree with actually stand on principle, the media criticize these politicians for “failing to compromise,” and being “extremists”. If one understands that 99% of the media thinks that the expansion of the state into all segments of the economy is an uncontroversial good, then reporting on news and politics becomes easier to understand. They’re so soaked in it, they don’t even know that they are doing it.

  36. Juice Box says:

    re # 33 – Look left and pass right. The Fed’s Two Trillion Dollar QE program has resulted in excess reserves (not required reserves) a majority of it not even held here here in the USA.

    Foreign banks hold 51% of the excess cash.
    Large US banks hold 36% of the excess cash.
    Small US banks hold only 13%of the excess cash.

    How else to keep the world on the dollar reserve standard other than giving away dollars like Halloween candy?

    Just another way for the Fed to monetize the US Debt perhaps? Said foreign banks then buy UST?

  37. Brian says:

    Home affordability slips as sales increase: report

    http://www.nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/09/home_affordability_slips_as_sa.html#incart_river_default

    Increases in mortgage rates have had little effect yet in New Jersey on the housing market, according to the Otteau Valuations Group.

    In its latest report, East-Brunswick-based Otteau noted home sales increased by double-digit figures for the fifth consecutive month in August. Year-to-date, sales are up by 17 percent, and since August 2011, they are up 43 percent.

    The number of homes for sale, however, continues to hover near their lowest levels since 2005. According to the report, there are 6,000 fewer homes on the market than August 2012, or a 10 percent drop in inventory.

    Meanwhile, mortgage rates continue to fluctuate between 4.3 percent and 4.5 percent, they remain about a full percentage point higher than they were in May.

    According to Otteau, the cumulative effect of increased demand for homes, lower inventory and higher mortgage rates has made home-buying slightly less affordable.

    “From the home buyer’s perspective, the increase in mortgage rates since May has resulted in a $222 increase in monthly mortgage payments for a $400,000 30-year loan,” Otteau said in the report.

    Home prices are on pace to increase an average of 5 percent in New Jersey, driving the affordability index to its lowest level since the last quarter of 2011.

    “This means that a home buyer today earning the state’s median income of $66,692 is able to afford a home that is priced 24 percent higher than the state’s median home value of $299,140,” he said.

    On Saturday, market analyst Robert Shiller wrote in the New York Times that rising home prices has stirred fears of another housing bubble.

    He wrote that “home prices in the United States were up 18.4 percent in real, inflation-corrected terms in the 16 months that ended in July. During the housing bubble that preceded the 2008 financial crisis, the largest 16-month increase wasn’t much bigger: 22.7 percent, for the period ended in July 2004. Is it possible that we are lapsing into what I call a bubble mentality?”

  38. All those vacant storefronts in the PRM sure are purty…

  39. The medical chronic joint really adds to the ambience in downtown PRM.

  40. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Anyone who drives a Japanese or German car is usually always complaining about the US govt. I guess considering you were cheering pearl harbor and concentration camps what do you expect

  41. Libturd at home says:

    Shop in Montclair. We could use the shot in the arm and in the chest.

  42. Who did Amanti Vino have to grease to get permission to let people drink outside?

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    In further news, the Giants have announced that they are glad the pre-season is over and are eager to kick off the regular season against Philly!

  44. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Giants need to trade for that Simms kid on the bench for the Jets.

  45. Fast Eddie says:

    JJ,

    Matt Simms has a cannon arm but the Giants problems are not at the QB position.

  46. 1987 Condo says:

    Is Clot the Swiss Defense Minister?:

    Swiss Army prepared for invasion by bankrupt French: report

    September 30, 2013, 1:28 PM
    Talk about mission creep!

    The Swiss army reportedly ran a war game earlier this year based on the premise that:
    France goes broke
    It breaks into little warring factions and
    One of them and decides to invade Switzerland to get back the money in the secret bank accounts.

    The Swiss newspaper LeMatin even carries a map of the speculative invasion routes.

    The paper quotes a French official, the general counsel of Haute-Savoie, suggesting that the Swiss should choose more realistic threats.

    A Swiss officer counters that the exercise was designed when tensions between France and Switzerland over tax evasion were less strained

    http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/09/30/swiss-army-prepared-for-invasion-by-bankrupt-french-report/?mod=MW_home_latest_news

  47. anon (the good one) says:

    @subaru_usa: .@Jalopnik readers recommend Subaru more than any other brand. Story here: http://t.co/BRRbKbDFCw

  48. anon (the good one) says:

    @SenSanders: Every man, woman & child in our country should be able to access the healthcare they need regardless of their income. http://t.co/8ooW3XFW2g

  49. JJ - The War Lord Welfare King says:

    I still think the Giants should have someone like that behind your current QB. We are re-building that whole team in next two years and your current QB is on the way down

    Fast Eddie says:
    September 30, 2013 at 1:32 pm
    JJ,

    Matt Simms has a cannon arm but the Giants problems are not at the QB position.

  50. Libturd at home says:

    “Who did Amanti Vino have to grease to get permission to let people drink outside?”

    I think that concept has been shut down. At least, that’s what I read about a month ago. Cops were real douches too during the process,

  51. Libturd at home says:

    That’s because Jalopnik readers are hipsters who can’t think for themselves. Do you smoke those Native American cigarettes and drink PBR too?

  52. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Lib aren’t cops always douches?

  53. huhu says:

    I support a shutdown if it is for principal. Someone needs to make a stand.

  54. joyce says:

    PBR is now hip?

  55. Essex says:

    57. Gen Y — nuff said.

  56. 1987 Condo says:

    Used to buy my parent Schmidt’s back on SI in 70’s, I think it was 99 cents a six pack. In New York you just picked it up in the aisle at the grocery store…

  57. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    apparently just got back from Wisconsin and the crap is all over the place. I’m drinking local octoberfests and the kids i’m traveling with are ordering canned PBR and posting pics on facebook. WTF happened to people,what is next the return of meister brau?!

  58. Essex says:

    You haven’t had a hangover til you’ve overdrank domestic skank.

  59. grim says:

    We were looking at a location on Church Street to setup as home base for the distillery – but it wouldn’t have worked out. A little bit too small and the town was clueless. I suspect it would have been very painful to deal with the town long term.

    Nobody in zoning in Northern NJ knows what to do with a distillery that isn’t the size of the Budweiser plant in Newark.

    So now we’re looking for straight industrial space, since that will be an easier sell to the town. If anyone has a line on around 2000 square feet of industrial, let me know. Pref open space, 10 ft+ ceilings, gas and water, bay door is nice (no dock required).

  60. anon (the good one) says:

    “Do you smoke those Native American cigarettes and drink PBR too?”

    I don’t smoke and don’t drink any form of cheap liquor. Cheap liquor is the worst. what you guys drink at the gtgs? You are so cheap that I bet you wouldn’t mind drinking piss if it’s 2 x 1

  61. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    grim look at former butcher shops, labs or food processing sites they usually have drains in the floor for obvious reasons.

  62. HANDS says:

    Grim- If you’re serious about setting up a distillery, contact me at the e-mail posted. We have an incredible building in a growing arts district that would lend itself to a great plant with retail possibilities. 100 year old former power plant with a drive in door, 30’+ ceilings, great light, +++. We can assist with approvals and can provide a liquor license for consumption.

  63. Juice Box says:

    Grim – Guy I know setup a distillery for Vodka in Upstate NY. Labor is cheap(er) there.

    Here is a pic of his setup.

    http://ow.ly/i/1u3bC

  64. Brian says:

    Salt on rt206 in stanhope has a lot of craft brews on tap. It’s sort of a trendy hipster place. But you can get PBR for $2 a pint if you just want a buzz. I just drink it cuz it’s cheap as hell. I’m not trying to impress anybody.

    56.joyce says:
    September 30, 2013 at 2:33 pm
    PBR is now hip?

  65. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Oh grim and I’m assuming vodka hence my suggestion as you don’t need much room. 4000 sq/ft should probably be a wholy self contained operation. bottling line would probably be the most space intensive unless you plan on bottling by hand.

  66. Brian says:

    I think there’s a couple of smaller and medium sized places like that near me. I’m not sure if you are interested in my area. From what I’ve seen, Newton is very business friendly too. I’m sure they’d be happy to have you.

    62.grim says:
    September 30, 2013 at 2:59 pm
    We were looking at a location on Church Street to setup as home base for the distillery – but it wouldn’t have worked out. A little bit too small and the town was clueless. I suspect it would have been very painful to deal with the town long term.

    Nobody in zoning in Northern NJ knows what to do with a distillery that isn’t the size of the Budweiser plant in Newark.

    So now we’re looking for straight industrial space, since that will be an easier sell to the town. If anyone has a line on around 2000 square feet of industrial, let me know. Pref open space, 10 ft+ ceilings, gas and water, bay door is nice (no dock required).

  67. joyce says:

    I unlike anon (the hipster doofus) am not being critical of anyone with regards to PBR or the like… was just shocked to know that Pabst is now trendy.

    68.Brian says:
    September 30, 2013 at 3:27 pm
    Salt on rt206 in stanhope has a lot of craft brews on tap. It’s sort of a trendy hipster place. But you can get PBR for $2 a pint if you just want a buzz. I just drink it cuz it’s cheap as hell. I’m not trying to impress anybody.

  68. Libturd at home says:

    Grim,

    Ever have anything from Boaks? Their brew master is a genius, but a moron when it comes to marketing.

    Their Wooden Beanie is kick butt as is their two and three blind monks.

    Then again, I’m partial to Belgian style brews.

  69. Sima says:

    Grim – Don’t know any details about vacancies , but Cedar Grove has a light industry industrial park with smaller buildings. There are other vacant spaces on the rt 23 corridor.
    David’s Cookies just set up headquarters in Cedar Grove and everyone was excited to have them move here.
    I’ve been to Cricket Hill Brewery in the nearby town of Fairfield and every Friday night people come out of the woodwork to drink the beer (it’s the only day open to public) in the small warehouse space that they use.

  70. Brain, grim can’t compete with all you Sussex hillbillies who make your own down by the creek.

  71. Libturd at home says:

    PBR is super trendy. I only had one since the old days. And it tasted like, well, junior high. Miller (High Life) is another Milwaukee krap beer that also seems to be trending as of late. I used to actually like MGD in my pre-craft beer days, but had one not that long ago and wow, it’s pretty bad too. Of the majors, I think Sam Adams and Guinness are still very good. So are some of the Canadian beers like Molson and Moosehead. Love me a Negra Modelo too. If I’m planning on getting smashed, Yuengling does the trick just fine.

  72. Libturd at home says:

    Cricket Hill has a decent IPA, but I’m sick of over hopped beer.

  73. grim says:

    Oh, this is for real. Brown liquor will be our primary, perhaps some white dog or gin at the onset to supplement income during the aging process. While we have no plans for any kind of vodka or others (brandy, etc), but I wouldn’t otherwise exclude it at this point.

    One of the major challenges of the NJ craft distilling provisions is that you need a certain percentage of NJ sourced inputs. This makes a product like rum or vodka a challenge. NJ Artisan Distilling is operating under a standard distillery permit, which runs around $12k a year, but they don’t have much of a choice making rum (not much molasses in Jersey)…

    For example – NJ has no appreciable Rye, Wheat, or Barley acreage – But what we do have is corn. What we do grow of those hardly enough to sustain a single distillery (we are in discussions with a few farmers in Sussex about growing for us in 2014). We have zero

  74. Make vodka from apples.

  75. Essex says:

    Buncha drunks.

  76. Essex says:

    Do you smoke, do you drink
    Do you yell out, “Hank”
    Do you fold it in your pocket
    Do you lock it in the bank

    Do you jack it up or drop it down to the ground
    Put the juice in the goose
    Or the Coke in the Crown

    Whatever makes you feel like a rock star

  77. grim says:

    Tree Vodka is already doing it, we considered using peach, but the cost of inputs are just too high, the price point of the bottle would be well out of reach. Would be an easy proposition if we owned the farm. Although, if timing is right and a grower had a couple of totes of product that was going to spoil, or was too damaged to sell at market, that might be an option. Dealing with grain is easy, dealing with fruit is a whole other matter entirely. A couple of tons of corn is cheap, a couple of tons of NJ peaches is a small fortune.

    Most folks doing anything like this are just buying grain neutral spirits in 55g drums or in tankers and blending small volumes of their own product or just redistilling. We really want to stay far away from this kind of thing. Tito’s “handmade” vodka is delivered to them by the trainload.

  78. Sima says:

    Grim – How about hard apple cider?
    That is becoming very popular in this area. This article is about farmers in the Hudson Valley area getting into it:
    http://ulstermagazine.com/hard-cider.html
    I really enjoy Samuel Smith’s hard apple cider, but would love to drink local hard cider instead.

  79. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Steak and Lowenbrau

  80. grim says:

    The process by which hard ciders are made is more similar to brewing beer than distilling whiskey. From a legal and permit perspective, they are very very different.

  81. Brian says:

    Lately we’re more into to cooking meth.

    Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    September 30, 2013 at 3:38 pm
    Brain, grim can’t compete with all you Sussex hillbillies who make your own down by the creek.

  82. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim;

    When does the reality show pilot air? Will you get a redneck name like ‘Tickle’?

  83. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Brian is Jessie Pinkman

  84. AG says:

    Welcome to h-ll. The political theatre is of the b variety today. Shut down the gub now! I want to see thousands of public sector leeches on the street tomorrow. It would be know different than any other day they are at work.

    Happy obamacare day tomorrow :)

    This is where it all turns to sh-t

  85. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    obamadoesnotcare

  86. you are contemplating setting up a small online business you should realise it is simply to down to a numbers game.
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  87. 30 year realtor says:

    Normal market doesn’t have life support from the government. What the fcuk does Trulia know about real estate or normal?

  88. Ron Jermany says:

    JB,

    What’s the best way to get a hold of you? Feel free to drop me a note. Thanks.

  89. Painhrtz - Disobey! says:

    Grim I had a good laugh regarding titos when I had it on a small bottle on a united flight. More power to them though never begrudge anyone making a buck at the expense of misinformed Americans.

  90. Pat says:

    Upstate NY for the brewery. Pick remediated site near hotels, outlets
    http://mcbride.fsiwebs.com/property_images/FULL_Route%2017M%20Harriman_Nepara.pdf

    Pitch to the various state medieval festivals with a special brew or two. Thousands upon thousands drinking all day from 10 am until 7 pm … Beer booth every half hour, perfectly spaced.

  91. Pretty soon, we’ll all be drinking bathtub gin and sleeping in the open air.

    Hard times coming. Hard times call for hard liquor.

  92. Learn to drink Everclear and like it, bitch.

  93. All Hype says:

    This whole gubbmint shutdown is a total farce. I have a few friends who work for the feds and they love the time off. They look forward to their furlough days.

    The fun will really start when people get gubbmint insurance for 2k/year and a 5k deductible to go with it. I hope the young Obama stooges like paying 2k for fat, lazy smokers and diabetics to get low cost health insurance.

  94. hype (101)-

    Everclear cures everything.

  95. Libturd at home says:

    If a government shuts down and nobody notices, did that government really shut down?

  96. All Hype says:

    Lib (100):

    It’s going to be real sad tomorrow when the earth opens up on Bloomfield Avenue and swallows the PRM whole. You were right to move to Glen Ridge.

    It was nice knowing all of you…

  97. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    [48] condo,

    “The paper quotes a French official, the general counsel of Haute-Savoie, suggesting that the Swiss should choose more realistic threats.”

    Very true. The French aren’t even threatening on defense, let alone offense.

  98. Ragnar says:

    Why don’t the Repubs just declare victory, remind people that they tried to stop obamacare, and let it be unleashed full force on the people? Let them have it, good and hard.

  99. Pequest says:

    [62] Grim,

    Belvidere NJ has what you are looking for and, more.

  100. He plays in Los Angeles Lakers since 1996 Unfortunately, they don’t always It is also a style of musicSo if you want nothing but the best for your child, Livie and Luca baby shoes could be the best choice for your child’s foot wear Good luck with your dodgy shoulders!Many people consider the rotator cuff to be just a small area of the body, but in reality is actually a series of muscles and tendons that stretch from the shoulder blade over top of the shoulder and into the cherry of t

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume, knee jerk savant says:

    [103] Ragnar,

    Then the media will pillory them for capitulating and the left will castigate them for the disastrous effect said capitulation will have on the economy.

    Doesn’t matter, we’ve crossed the tipping point. In 10 years, DC will be run by the Democrats, the GOP will be a minor nuisance in flyover states, the public sector unions will run the country, gas will be $8 a gallon, U3 unemployment never goes below 7%, which will be deemed to be “full” employment, the only billionaires left here will be Buffett and Gates, and 70% of the Fortune 500 will be foreign companies, many of which used to be US companies (it would’ve been more but DOJ used Exon-Florio to block every merger after 2018 because it would threaten national security if Underarmour became a Taiwanese company). Welcome to the United States of Europe.

    And when they truly get their way, pot smoking will be a civil right and saying “n@@@er” will carry a two year mandatory prison term.

  102. AG says:

    30 minutes until shutdown!

    This is better than watching the ball drop on New Years Eve.

    Might have to break out some bubbly. Finally something to celebrate!

  103. ccb223 says:

    Wow…you outdid yourself Com….pretty ridic post.

    How about we let the law that has already been legislated and adjudicated (by the highest court) go into effect and see what happens…maybe the people who couldnt get coverage before will actually like having health insurance and not going bankrupt if they get sick, maybe people will like not being denied coverage for pre-existing conditions, maybe…gulp…it will result in cheaper healthcare costs (look it up, there’s already evidence that prices are lower in the states that want to make it work, NY and CAL for example).

    An exchange is supposed to create competition…the free market at work. Adam Smith himself couldn’t have thought of a better idea…it’s almost as if it was a republican idea…oh wait, it was…it was Mitt Romney’s idea from not too long ago when he was Governor. But that’s taboo to bring up right?

    Instead, Ted Cruz who is the most pompous, grandstanding a-hole I’ve seen in a long time…is using this as an opportunity to make a name for himself at the expense of the U.S. economy…let’s make sure to repeal that 2% tax on medical devices too while we are it….it’s not like we have a gazillion dollar deficit and need the revenue or anything…and that way we get to fellate the medical devices industry a little more…we don’t give them enough love as it is…

    What a joke…

  104. chicagofinance says:

    Scrapple n’Ricin says:
    September 30, 2013 at 8:31 pm
    hype (101)-
    Everclear cures everything.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k87SADY-dhw

  105. The Elite 140 says:

    #108 ccb223
    Don’t beat your head off that brick wall. The GOP is in in free fall, they are going to own this shutdown. The Tea Party will be celebrating, the moderate GOP (if there are any left) will be crying in their hands.
    I will probably be taking any Dem pres candidate vs any GOP pres candidate for 2016. This is a good offer for an early lock in. The GOP will take a kicking in 2014. The GOP may be able to retool for 2016 but I can’t see it happening.

    GOP 2020 (they next chance they have for a realistic run)

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