Looking into Trulia’s crystal ball

From HuffPo:

Trulia: 2014 Will Be The Year Of Repeat Home Buyer

The housing market continued its uneven recovery in 2013 and will enter 2014 closer to normal than it was a year earlier. Consumer optimism is climbing back: in Trulia’s latest survey, 74% of Americans said that homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream – the highest level since January 2010. Even among young adults (18-34 year olds), many of whom struggled through the recession and are still living with their parents, 73% said homeownership was part of achieving their personal American Dream, up from 65% in August 2011. Rising prices over the past two years have been great news for homeowners, especially for those who had been underwater, and the real estate industry has benefited from both higher prices and more sales volume.

Barring any economic crises, the housing market should continue to normalize. Here are 5 ways that the 2014 housing market will be different from 2013:

1. Housing Affordability Worsens. Buying a home will be more expensive in 2014 than in 2013. Although home-price increases should slow from this year’s unsustainably fast pace (see #4, below), prices will still rise faster than both incomes and rents. Also, mortgage rates will be higher in 2014 than in 2013, thanks both to the strengthening economy (rates tend to rise in recoveries) and to Fed tapering, whenever it comes. The rising cost of homeownership will add insult to injury in America’s least affordable markets: in October 2013, for instance, 25% or less of the homes listed for sale in San Francisco, Orange County, Los Angeles, and New York were affordable to middle class households. Nonetheless, buying will remain cheaper than renting.

2. The Home-Buying Process Gets Less Frenzied. Home buyers in 2014 might kick themselves for not buying in 2013 or 2012, when mortgage rates and prices were lower, but they’ll take some comfort in the fact that the process won’t be as frenzied.

3. Repeat Buyers Take Center Stage. 2013 was the year of the investor, but 2014 will be the year of the repeat home buyer. Investors buy less as prices rise: higher prices mean that the return on investment falls, and there’s less room for future price appreciation. Who will fill the gap? Not first-time buyers: saving for a down payment and having a stable job remain significant burdens, and declining affordability is also a big hurdle for first-timers. Who’s left? Repeat buyers: they’re less discouraged by rising prices than either investors or first-time buyers because the home they already own has also risen in value.

4. How Much Prices Slow Matters Less Than Why And Where. Prices won’t rise as much in 2014 as in 2013. The latest Trulia Price Monitor showed us that asking home prices rose year-over-year 12.1% nationally and more than 20% in 10 of the 100 largest metros. But it also revealed that these price gains are already slowing sharply in the hottest metros. How much prices slow matters less than why.

5. Rental Action Swings Back Toward Urban Apartments. Throughout the recession and recovery, investors bought homes and rented them out, sometimes to people who lost another (or the same!) home to foreclosure. In fact, the number of rented single-family homes leapt by 32% during this period. Going into 2014, though, investors are buying fewer single-family homes; loosening credit standards might allow more single-family renters to become owners again; and fewer owners are losing homes to foreclosures to begin with – all of which mean that the single-family rental market should cool.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

108 Responses to Looking into Trulia’s crystal ball

  1. grim says:

    From the Record:

    N.J. lawmakers approve a study for possible casino in Bergen County

    After an $88 million upgrade to The Meadowlands Racetrack designed to draw more and younger gamblers, some wonder whether New Jersey is leaving hundreds of millions of dollars in tax revenue behind because it doesn’t have casino gambling in Bergen County.

    An Assembly committee released a bill Thursday to study a potential new casino in Bergen County, assess existing gambling regulations and make recommendations as soon as 2015.

    The move signifies a push by the state to compete with New York and Pennsylvania, which have built casinos and pulled tax revenue from Atlantic City businesses. Building a casino in New Jersey outside of Atlantic City, however, would require a constitutional change, but some committee members argue that in recent years, public opinion has shifted in favor of the idea after a similar measure was passed in New York.

  2. grim says:

    Don’t follow, what exactly is the point of this? Thought that heroin overdose was the solution, not the problem. Not to sound particularly heartless around the holidays, but why are we paying for this? Suppose it would be helpful if the boys in blue could carry some extra rolling papers, you know, just incase I tear my last ez-wider rolling a phat blunt, now that’s a crime.

    Ocean County Police Officers to Carry Heroin Neutralizer

    Heroin overdose has become a major concern for Ocean County, and officials are not taking the issue lightly. Last week, Joseph Coronato, Ocean County prosecutor, and Kenneth Lavelle, medical director of Emergency Training and Consulting, held a mandatory medical briefing for the county’s 33 municipality police chiefs on the use and administration of naloxone, a prescription drug sold under the brand name Narcan. The drug, which can temporarily reverse the potentially fatal effects of opiates, will soon be carried by police officers who serve within the county.

  3. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [2] grim

    I like Clot’s idea of a heroin neutralizer. Much cheaper and comes in a variety of grain weights.

  4. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    More news that isn’t news on Obamacare

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/101267054

    FWIW, there are two problems I have with this story: First, they make the suggestion that the small companies dropping health care is a continuing trend, not a response to Obamacare. This is false. The trend of companies dropping care in 2011 and even before was largely economic due to the downturn, but what explains the continuing uptrend as the economy improves? Second, the story, as most do, avoids the fact that this is an intentional result of Obamacare; that it was always intended to get small businesses out of this business and get their people onto exchanges.

  5. Street Justice says:

    I think a lot of the overdoses are not your typical dirty addict…society’s trash born to live in an alley. Heroin is disturbingly popular among teens now. It starts off slow, a couple of kids take their parents or relatives stolen prescription drugs which are some sort of opiate. Then when a few of them are hooked, they find that heroin is actually easier to find then more prescription pills. I guess once they take this stuff it’s like jumping down a black hill you can never get out of……

    2.grim says:
    December 13, 2013 at 7:10 am
    Don’t follow, what exactly is the point of this? Thought that heroin overdose was the solution, not the problem. Not to sound particularly heartless around the holidays, but why are we paying for this? Suppose it would be helpful if the boys in blue could carry some extra rolling papers, you know, just incase I tear my last ez-wider rolling a phat blunt, now that’s a crime.

    Ocean County Police Officers to Carry Heroin Neutralizer

    Heroin overdose has become a major concern for Ocean County, and officials are not taking the issue lightly. Last week, Joseph Coronato, Ocean County prosecutor, and Kenneth Lavelle, medical director of Emergency Training and Consulting, held a mandatory medical briefing for the county’s 33 municipality police chiefs on the use and administration of naloxone, a prescription drug sold under the brand name Narcan. The drug, which can temporarily reverse the potentially fatal effects of opiates, will soon be carried by police officers who serve within the county.

  6. Street Justice says:

    Grim, unmod post 5 please…

  7. Street Justice says:

    My brother found a kid no older than 15, overdosing in between a few parked cars in the parking lot at the Mountain Creek resort in Vernon and called the cops recently…

  8. AG says:

    Pure propaganda. This is not a recovery. Our economy is a giant pile of hot garbage papered over by some academics in ivory towers.

    This all ends in tears.

    You want to save money on a house purchase? Talk to the seller directly. Agree on a price. Split the 4 percent that the realtor was going to steal. Let the lawyers take care of the rest.

    buy now or be priced out forever!

    It’s like printing money!

  9. grim says:

    So we need nanny state police to take care of our children? Are these kids given a gold star for taking their Naloxone? And while I would hope they are arrested in the hospital, or even better, as they are in a stupor puking all over themselves, we all know that really isn’t the case.

    I realize the confluence of factors you mention that’s allowed heroin to become mainstream. I’ll mention an even more important one, the main stigma associated with intravenous drug use – AIDS – no longer makes the news. These kids didn’t live through the same news stream that we did. Twenty years ago, ask a kid what would happen if they stuck a needle in their arm, I guarantee 100% would say “Die of AIDS”.

    So now it’s OK and today addicts are victims, it’s a disease, it’s not your fault. Jesus we go out of our way to patronize celebrity addicts – and this is the result – it’s no longer a stigma to be a dirty addict, because nobody is a dirty addict. Instead, they get a gold star.

    Nothing some dirty horse and a dozen dead kids wouldn’t fix.

    I’ll ask again, why are cops making heroin overdose acceptable? No big deal to overdose anymore, just call the cops, they’ll take care of you. You’ll get a gold star and a vacation at Passages in Malibu, maybe if we’re really lucky we’ll see Lindsey there!!!!

    The fact of the matter is, little Sally and Preston are dirty addicts, don’t sugar coat it because they are young or because they have mommy and daddy’s money to cover it up. Sally is two missed hits away from becoming a whore and Preston’s about to beat his mother to death for the $50 bill in her wallet.

  10. AG says:

    Re heroin

    Oxycontin should lose it’s FDA approval.

    Lawyers force doctors to treat pain or be sued. 10 years later the emergency rooms are like candy shops for junkies,

    This p-ssy society needs to take some pain. Here’s a Tylenol bow grab a sack.

  11. Somebody should get Bojangles and Bernank off the smack they’ve been shooting for years, because their fcuking @ddiction has become my problem.

  12. Street Justice says:

    9 – I don’t disagree with you…I don’t see giving cops some sort of drug to save an addicts life a solution at all. It’s really a symptom of a huge problem that doesn’t get much press. By the time a cop is administering this drug to save some kid’s life who is OD’ing in a ditch, it’s probably too late to turn that kids life around. My point is that it’s happening more often to more kids and the program to give drugs to State Cops to treat them should be setting off alarm bells.

  13. Besides, a couple of guys I know in Newark told me that the late ’60s and early ’70s were the days when smack was smack.

  14. I’d rather be @ddicted to 0piates than to gubmint handouts.

  15. anon (the good one) says:

    as much as I’m antigun, wish he had a permit to put a bullet in your small brain.

    xolepa says:
    December 12, 2013 at 3:25 pm
    Lovely downtown Flemington. What is this world coming to edition. Just went to the bank to deposit some rent money. In comes in a black man blasting a radio within his coat and lines up next to me while I am at the cash machine. I ask him kindly to turn it down as I was counting the monies.

    He mumbles audibly that I am a racist.

  16. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Tax time soon

    My 2014 prediction is muni bonds will do well with folks once they get tax bill. The effect of these much higher taxes dont smack some folks in face till they meet with their CPA to do their 2013 tax return.

    Those in the upper income tier — $400,000-plus for individuals, $450,000-plus for couples—the federal tax rate is 39.6% (in 2012, it was 35%). And that’s not factoring in an investment income tax that could add another 3.8%.

  17. anon (the good one) says:

    According to Slate’s gun-death tracker, an estimated 11,348 people have died as a result of gun violence in America since the Newtown massacre on December 14, 2012

  18. Ottoman says:

    “I’d rather be @ddicted to 0piates than to gubmint handouts.”

    You mean like mortgage interest deductions, depreciation, capital gains rates and the $200 million Christie gave Prudential to move down the street.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    Ottoman,

    Explain what you mean by depreciation and capital gains rates.

  20. Richard says:

    I’ve been buying closed end NJ muni funds MUJ, EVJ, NUJ, MYJ. Their discounts are now nearly 15%. Yields are 7% which is pretty good tax free. It does suck paying for active management but hopefully it’ll mean they’ll avoid the worst bonds.

  21. All Hype says:

    Grim (9):

    Oxy and heroin is a big problem in Monmouth County too, especially in the high schools. You just do not hear about it. The county does not want Graydon’s and Ellery’s parents being told that Rumson and Homdel are no longer exclusive and a safe place to live.

  22. Fast Eddie says:

    Home buyers in 2014 might kick themselves for not buying in 2013 or 2012, when mortgage rates and prices were lower…

    When mortgage rates rise, the prices will drop. Before you start giving me data that there’s no correlation, keep in mind that we’re in a structural crisis, not in a normal financial cycle. There are no rules any longer. The trick now is to dupe the other party with a more creative playbook. And besides, those with means can manipulate the rate. The price is forever. And of course, let’s once again leave the minor detail of crushing property taxes out of the equation.

  23. grim says:

    Before you start giving me data that there’s no correlation

    There is a correlation … you just think it is closer to -1, and I think it is closer to 0. :)

  24. Fast Eddie says:

    If you’re all looking for yield, you all should have been full throttle on equities now, five years ago and in the future. Nothing, and I mean nothing, gives you return like stocks. It pays dividends, which fuels more investment, which creates more investment on top of stock splits as it all repeats exponentially. If you’re invested in anything else, you’re wasting your time. Beanie Babies, precious metals, rare coins and currency, bonds, CDs, tulip bulbs and bitcoin exists to dupe the masses. RE is the only other option and that’s if you put 20% down minimum and at least a decade or better to wait.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    There is a correlation … you just think it is closer to -1, and I think it is closer to 0. :)

    Not anymore. It’s a wheel of chance now… a three card monty… a ruse. And it’s who can play the game better. You have to find a victim that’s easily persuaded and convinced.

  26. AG says:

    Anon,

    Re: Newtown massacre,

    Are you sure you weren’t one of the paid actors on that day?

    The problem with the g_v sponsored false flag is that once you goto the well too many times everything looks like a false flag. Lol.

  27. Statler Waldorf says:

    Atlantic City?

    “Nothing, and I mean nothing, gives you return like stocks.”

  28. Statler Waldorf says:

    “False flag” types are worse than 9-11 “truther” morons. Just keep trampling on the bodies of murdered children, geniuses.

  29. gary (20)-

    I think ottoman is saying that he’s a bat-smoking soci@list who has no problem with gubmint confisc@tion of personal wealth and its redistribution to both white collar crooks and the entitlement class.

  30. Nutcases with guns always target the most vulnerable in order to kill as many people as possible; that’s what makes skools an easy target for them. As distasteful as it sounds, if we fortified every skool and picked off a couple of these loonies at the door, this stuff would stop.

  31. You don’t see the loonies rushing to shoot up a military base, do you?

  32. grim says:

    In other news, Kim Jung Un appoints Dennis Rodman to high government advisor position left vacant by execution in the Glorious Democratic Peoples Republic of North Korea.

  33. Fine choice. Too bad Bojangles didn’t replace Sebelius with Rodman.

  34. I want free choom, tats and piercings with my Bommacare.

  35. chicagofinance says:

    I don’t know whether you guys remember the story about the stabbing in Colts Neck from the summer. Well the perpetrator was a 16 year old who lives down the street from me right on route 34. In fact he may be one of the kids who banged on my front door about 18 months ago at 4AM and scared the hell out of my wife. He ripped up property all over our neighborhood during his little wilding stunt.

    I think he was one responsible for the stabbing of a woman at 12:30AM (41 times for those playing our home version of the game) and stealing her car and driving up to Aberdeen.

    He made bail and is currently attending his classes at Colts Neck High School. Paretns want him to be identified so that they can tell their kids to stay the fcuk away from him………

    All Hype says:
    December 13, 2013 at 8:49 am
    Grim (9):

    Oxy and heroin is a big problem in Monmouth County too, especially in the high schools. You just do not hear about it. The county does not want Graydon’s and Ellery’s parents being told that Rumson and Homdel are no longer exclusive and a safe place to live.

  36. chicagofinance says:

    Sorry….I left out the part that he was high during the stabbing…

  37. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    I agree, but last five years, convertible bonds and junk bonds did pretty good and if you timed Muni which has retail investors who panic and over sell and got in during January 2001 or July 2013 in the last two panics you also did well.

    Treasuries, CDs and Money Markets however, is what most people think of when they think fixed income and they were nightmares last few years.

    Fast Eddie says:
    December 13, 2013 at 8:57 am

    If you’re all looking for yield, you all should have been full throttle on equities now, five years ago and in the future. Nothing, and I mean nothing, gives you return like stocks. It pays dividends, which fuels more investment, which creates more investment on top of stock splits as it all repeats exponentially. If you’re invested in anything else, you’re wasting your time. Beanie Babies, precious metals, rare coins and currency, bonds, CDs, tulip bulbs and bitcoin exists to dupe the masses. RE is the only other option and that’s if you put 20% down minimum and at least a decade or better to wait.

  38. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Also Stocks where you defer gains and dividends taxes at lower taxed rate, muni bonds and investment properties which has tax advantages as well as a primary homes are where lots of upper income folks split up worth.

    Taxable bonds starting in 2013 when tax rates went up became very bad as in addition to low interest you pay half the interest back in tax.

  39. Ottoman says:

    So do you consider middle class homeowners who take the mortgage interest deduction and small business owners who take depreciation deductions on their assets to be white collar crooks or the entitlement class? How about we just call them welfare queens.

    “gary (20)-

    I think ottoman is saying that he’s a bat-smoking soci@list who has no problem with gubmint confisc@tion of personal wealth and its redistribution to both white collar crooks and the entitlement class.”

  40. Michael says:

    25- Fast eddie, thank you for finally agreeing with me that real estate is a solid investment tool to build wealth over time. I think it’s the best. My problem with the stock market, everyone always looks at the % gains after a bust, they never incorporate how many people are taking down in the bust cycle of the stock market. Yes, you make a crap load of money on stocks, but that’s only if you don’t die during the bust. Housing is a physical asset that will generate wealth if held long term. I don’t know where I can find the data, but I honestly believe that real estate has created more millionaires than the stock market has. Why? Stock market always has a crash that takes out so many of its’ participants and now that the stock market is not run on fundamentals, it’s like putting your money on the roulette table. Don’t get me wrong, I will still have some of my investment money in the market, but the majority of my investment money is in housing. Long-term, nothing beats the return on being a landlord in a high value area for real estate. I know so many European immigrants that came here and built a mini-fortune in real estate in north jersey barely speaking English. Only thing they knew how to say was “where’s the rent” and “f-u pay me”.

  41. Fast Eddie says:

    JJ,

    The novice investor is not going to know how to juggle convertible bonds and junk bonds, let alone time it correctly. Anyone with a little common sense should know at the very least how to consolidate debt, use 0% balance transfer, dollar cost average and automatic reinvestment. There’s the whole concept in a nutshell. And this strategy takes no time at all.

  42. Fast Eddie says:

    Ottoman,

    I didn’t make that statement, I’m asking you what you mean by depriciation and capital gains.

  43. Fast Eddie says:

    Michael [42],

    RE is a piece of the pie but if you don’t own a bunch of income housing, stocks are the meat of your investments.

  44. Doyle says:

    Q for Gary. I started following this blog in 2005, and I remember you on here way back in the day, not sure exactly when. Is there a reason you didn’t try to move up in 2011-12? Not picking a fight, completely curious, I was absent around that time and am not sure what your deal was then.

  45. joyce says:

    29
    Statler,

    Exactly. But please don’t pull out the children card.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Doyle [46],

    I listed my house in mid 2012 and it sold in a week. Because, I was told no one is going to take a contingency even though I insisted my house would sell…. in a week. In the contract, it stated that the buyers don’t close on my house until I found a house with an option after 120 days of having the contract killed (or extended by agreement) by either party. Seven months and multiple contract extensions later, I killed the contract and put myself and the buyers out of our misery.

    Yes, I made a few offers only to be told by one realtor: a) You’re not even close even though the house had NO yard; B) had a counter offer on another house by a seller that was less than 1% from their asking price; c) lowballed another with no counter whatsoever even though the house was a snapshot of the year 1972.

    The other sparse selection of houses that I went to look at were dank, unwanted, decrepit hunks of sh1t that needed a bulldozer and a tank that were listed in excess of a HALF MILLION dollars before the top to bottom renovation could even begin.

    Now, I know I’m opening myself up yet again, to a myriad of “solutions” by the experts on this forum, but I implore you to try it yourself and you too, will wrestle with every scenario and struggle for an unreachable compromise. And please, don’t insist I’m looking in the “haughty” towns only because I went to see other houses in so-called mid level towns and the measly price offsets added zero value. In fact, the taxes in most cases were worse.

  47. ottoman (41)-

    Mortgage interest deduction is the gubmint getting in bed with banksters to dupe people into buying houses they can’t afford. It is also, IMHO, probably going to be done away with within the next 10 years. If we ever move toward flat, fair taxation, it should be done away with.

    I have no issue with depreciation/recapture for small businesses.

  48. chicagofinance says:

    JJ: Opinion on this one? It is a straight preferred paying 3M USD Libor + 75, but with a 3% minimum. It is trading at $16.55, so that means it is giving you floating exposure above 3% on $25 par, but the current yield is over 4.5%.
    http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/71/71595/prospectus/BMLPreferredSeries_1.pdf

  49. Doyle says:

    #48 Thanks, I guess I was up to speed. I guess I am wondering why you didn’t look to move up earlier (2010-11) when inventory was in better shape, etc. I guess it would have been tougher to sell at that time though.

  50. Doyle says:

    And somehow I worked “I guess” into my last post three times… Holiday Party last night, forgive me.

  51. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Michael you wont find the data as it does not exist. Over the long term Stocks generate more wealth than housing.

    Housing is a physical symbol of wealth you can look up, talk about, show folks your buildings. In the USA we dont talk about cash or value of stocks.

    At a dinner party folks say my house was worth 400K and now worth 900K but taboo to say my wrap account rose in value 500K.

    My buddy rents an apartment, they do not own a car and his son is going to public school. Mostly likely he has 10-40 million in his brokerage accounts.

    He started with zero. His story is he always believed. I recall when he first started working out of school at IBM he maxed out 401K and maxed out employee stock plan and kept all his money at a brokerage account in muni funds and only had a checking account. Well he graduated college in 1985 and in crash of 1987 he had peanuts in market.

    He has a rent stablized place no car, and walks to work and wife can walk kid to nearby public school. He has massive wealth.

    Anyone who graduated college around time he did who did not take a hit in crash of 1987 and just kept going is loaded.

    Remember dow was back at 2k when he was started buying muni funds. And vast majority of his dollar cost averaging dow was between 2k and 10K.

    He puts 25k to 40K a month in the market.

    Michael says:
    December 13, 2013 at 10:00 am

    25- Fast eddie, thank you for finally agreeing with me that real estate is a solid investment tool to build wealth over time. I think it’s the best. My problem with the stock market, everyone always looks at the % gains after a bust, they never incorporate how many people are taking down in the bust cycle of the stock market. Yes, you make a crap load of money on stocks, but that’s only if you don’t die during the bust. Housing is a physical asset that will generate wealth if held long term. I don’t know where I can find the data, but I honestly believe that real estate has created more millionaires than the stock market has. Why? Stock market always has a crash that takes out so many of its’ participants and now that the stock market is not run on fundamentals, it’s like putting your money on the roulette table. Don’t get me wrong, I will still have some of my investment money in the market, but the majority of my investment money is in housing. Long-term, nothing beats the return on being a landlord in a high value area for real estate. I know so many European immigrants that came here and built a mini-fortune in real estate in north jersey barely speaking English. Only thing they knew how to say was “where’s the rent” and “f-u pay me

  52. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    Is it his one BAC 7.25% Non-Cumulative Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock,
    Series L?

    Dont laugh, but with tax loss selling going on and headline PR news I like BPOP pref stock for yield.

    It is a TBTF bank so wont fail, common is risky but yield on that pref is damm big

  53. Fast Eddie says:

    Doyle [51],

    During that time period (2010 – 2011), I was doing contract work with no benefits so I wasn’t about to commit to a move until I landed something permanent. The week after I landed a permanent job, I listed my house.

  54. Doyle says:

    #55 Got it.

  55. chicagofinance says:

    NFL
    NFL Players Living With Mom and Dad

    Football Parents House Their Son and Take In the Team’s Punter Too
    New York Jets tight end Chris Pantale lives with mom and dad in his childhood home. He invited the team’s punter, Ryan Quigley, to crash with his family too.
    Wayne, N.J.
    The hand-drawn, rainbow-colored sign on the bedroom door reads “Alana.” Inside, paintings of pink flowers dot the cream walls. A pair of blue angel wings, covered in glitter, hangs over the twin bed.
    This used to be Alana Pantale’s room, but she’s at college now. So her family is loaning the space to New York Jets punter Ryan Quigley.
    Quigley is friends with Chris Pantale, Alana’s older brother and the Jets’ fourth-string tight end. The 23-year-olds were roommates at Boston College. When the pair made the team this year, Pantale moved home with his parents and invited Quigley to crash, rent-free, in his sister’s quarters.
    “I couldn’t have asked for a better situation,” said Quigley, sitting atop his bed’s moon-and-stars-patterned comforter.

    Ron Antonelli for The Wall Street Journal
    For every multimillionaire, mansion-dwelling NFL star like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, dozens like Quigley and Pantale struggle to make a team’s 53-man roster. The league’s minimum salary is $405,000, and the average career of an NFL athlete is only 3.2 years, according to the players’ union.
    Quigley knows one twisted knee or bad game could be it. Yet the appeal of the Pantale family’s offer isn’t just financial. Besides saving on rent, Quigley gets the benefits of home-cooked meals, a furnished place and the company of a loyal buddy and his kin.
    The drawback: Both eligible bachelors must abide by Mrs. Pantale’s rules. “Chicks?” Patricia Pantale said. “Not in here.”
    Patricia and her husband, Bill, don’t ask for rent, but Quigley tries to repay them in other ways. He bought their 8-foot Christmas tree, gets the check at restaurants and occasionally picks up their other daughter, 16-year-old Olivia, from volleyball practice.
    His offer to do household chores was politely declined. “I try to help with the dishes and put them in the dishwasher, but Mr. Pantale says I do it wrong,” Quigley said.
    Quigley and Chris Pantale joined Boston College’s football team in 2008, bonded over table tennis in the freshmen dorms and lived together the next three years. The punter left BC after the 2011 season, a year before Pantale.
    The undrafted Quigley signed with the Chicago Bears, who cut him after one game. The South Carolina native spent the rest of the year in Charlotte, N.C., where he trained, worked as a substitute teacher and waited for a job offer from another team that never came. He watched NFL punters on TV. “You sit there thinking, ‘Is that ever going to be me?'” he said.
    He got another chance this spring. The Jets signed him—and the undrafted Pantale too. The two talked about sharing an apartment, but the team cut Quigley in August. Pantale made the practice squad and moved back to his childhood home in suburban Wayne, N.J., a 25-minute drive from the Jets’ practice facility in Florham Park, N.J. After the season’s second game, the Jets called the unemployed Quigley. Their punter was struggling and they wanted Quigley to replace him. With no time to find an apartment, he took the Pantales’ offer.
    Quigley could afford his own place. Should he remain on the team for the rest of the season, he will make about $357,000—the league’s minimum salary prorated for 15 of 17 weeks.
    But living on his own just wouldn’t be the same. On a recent Thursday, Quigley rolled out of bed at 6:30 a.m., brushed his teeth in the bathroom he shares with Pantale and Pantale’s sister and hopped into his tan Toyota RAV4 to head to the practice facility. Pantale had left an hour earlier for weightlifting—which meant they couldn’t carpool. “It would obviously be nice,” Quigley said. “You’d save gas money.”
    At work, Quigley lifted weights, attended meetings and focused on his secondary job of holding placekicks. When he got home, he and Pantale watched TV and played table tennis.
    Pantale’s mother, who works as a secretary, had taken her daughter to volleyball practice. So Bill Pantale, a high-school guidance counselor, prepared dinner, serving penne a la vodka with chicken.
    At the table, Quigley broke the silence first. “It’s going to snow this weekend,” he said.
    “Is it going to be windy?” Bill Pantale asked.
    “I’ll take snow over wind,” Quigley said.
    After eating two servings and clearing the table, Quigley said he needed to complete his homework assignment: Picking up Christmas decorations for the locker room as part of a Jets special-teams tradition. Quigley and Chris Pantale hopped into the tight end’s Nissan Altima and headed to Home Depot.
    None of the other Home Depot customers appeared to recognize the 6-foot-3, 188-pound Quigley or the 6-foot-5, 254-pound Pantale as they studied their options.
    “Big Bird would be funny,” Quigley said. But Pantale said Big Bird wouldn’t work unless Quigley also bought the Cookie Monster. “He would look lonely by himself.”
    Quigley settled on an inflatable Santa Claus, prizing its 11-and-a-half-foot height. “I mean, you walk in (to the locker room) and you’re going to be like, ‘Damn!’ ” he said.
    The night’s second task was a little more complicated. They had to pick up Pantale’s sister and three other girls from volleyball practice.
    After heading back home to switch to Patricia Pantale’s roomier SUV, the two players drove to the three-court gym, where the girls were still playing. “What time does this end?” Pantale asked one of his sister’s teammates as she ran by.
    “Nine,” she said.
    “Nine?” Pantale said.
    “We thought it was eight,” Quigley said.
    The two Jets had an hour to kill. Pantale glanced at Quigley. “You want to hit the ball back and forth, you and me?” the tight end asked.
    “I guess,” Quigley said.
    The two hit and kicked volleyballs to each other, while retrieving errant spikes from Olivia’s practice. Pantale then rounded up his sister, two of his cousins and one of his sister’s teammates to give them rides home. Two of the girls clambered over the vehicle’s second row of seats to get into the third row. “Please don’t get hurt,” Quigley said.
    Pantale drove to the first destination, where Olivia’s teammate Erin lived. After she said her goodbyes and got out of the car, Pantale started driving away.
    “Back up! Back up!” Quigley said, craning his neck to make sure Erin had entered the house.
    Pantale, both hands on the wheel, sighed. “Should we make sure she’s comfortable?” he said.
    Next stop was Pantale’s cousins’ house. Quigley quizzed the remaining three girls about why teenagers take so many self-portraits on camera phones. “Y’all take selfies?” he asked, in his slight Carolina drawl.
    When Quigley finally got home at 9:30 p.m., a half-hour before bedtime, he plopped onto his bed and pulled out his laptop to log onto Netflix, using a college classmate’s password. A subscription to the online-video service costs $8 a month.
    “This guy is just skating through life,” Pantale said.
    Quigley glared at Pantale. “You’re right,” the punter said. “I can probably afford a Netflix account.”
    Around him, Alana’s photos and art projects adorned the walls. He hasn’t considered redecorating. “I’m just temporarily in this room,” said Quigley.
    Quigley plans to find his own place with Pantale if the two are still on the Jets next year. Quigley ranks 13th in the league in average punt yards this season. Pantale, who was promoted to the main roster last month, has yet to appear in an NFL game.
    The Pantale household got a little more crowded when Alana, a senior at the University of Delaware, returned for Thanksgiving. She had to crash on the living-room sofa because of the professional punter in her room.
    Alana didn’t mind. “He’s cute,” she said. But, alas, she said, “Chris won’t let me talk to any of his friends.”

  56. joyce says:

    One taped recording of a background interview suggests the department made special accommodations for the county officers.

    In the recording, a sheriff’s investigator tells an applicant who was caught cheating on his polygraph exam that normally that would have meant “goodbye, you’re done, there’s no second chances.” The investigator then told the applicant that he and other suspected cheaters might not be disqualified “as a favor because, you know, it’s law enforcement.” The applicant was eventually hired.

    http://graphics.latimes.com/behind-the-badge/

  57. chicagofinance says:

    sent by a client

    Today we mourn the passing of a beloved old friend, Common Sense ,
    who has been with us for many years. No one knows for sure
    how old he was, since his birth records were long ago lost in bureaucratic red
    tape. He will be remembered as having cultivated such valuable lessons as:

    – Knowing when to come in out of the rain;
    – Why the early bird gets the worm;
    – Life isn’t always fair;
    – And maybe it was my fault.

    Common Sense lived by simple,
    sound financial policies (don’t spend more than you can earn) and reliable
    strategies (adults, not children, are in charge).

    His health
    began to deteriorate rapidly when well-intentioned but overbearing regulations
    were set in place.

    Common Sense lost ground when
    parents attacked teachers for doing the job that they themselves had failed to
    do in disciplining their unruly children.

    Common Sense lost the will to
    live as the churches became businesses; and criminals received better
    treatment than their victims.

    Common Sense took a beating
    when you couldn’t defend yourself from a burglar in your own home and the
    burglar could sue you for assault.

    Common Sense finally gave up
    the will to live, after a woman failed to realize that a steaming cup of
    coffee was hot. She spilled some in her lap, and was promptly awarded a
    huge settlement.

    Common Sense was preceded in death,
    -by his parents, Truth and Trust,
    -by his wife, Discretion,
    -by his daughter, Responsibility,
    -and by his son, Reason.

    He is survived by his 5 stepbrothers;
    – I Know My Rights
    – I Want It Now
    – Someone Else Is To Blame
    – I’m A Victim
    – Pay me for Doing Nothing

    Not many attended his funeral because so few realized he was gone.

    If you still remember him, pass this on. If not, join the majority and do nothing.

  58. Godzilla in a moo-moo says:

    Grim re#2:

    You are heartless bastard. I find amusing that the people that should not throw stone because they live in glass houses are the first to throw it.

    Yes, the Real Estate Industrial Complex is a glass house because multiple government regulations and bail-outs allow it to exist.

    But, I digress. Your point is very like the idea of – Not helping people in Mercedes and BMW’s on the scene of an accident because Mercedes and BMW drivers are well known to be asshat drivers.

    Naxolone/Narcan gets them out of the apneic/not breathing danger zone. The medication is then titrated in the back of the ambulance to keep them sedated and arousable but sleepy. Too much they get nasty headache and get nasty.

    Take a look at this week’s Rolling Stone. They have a piece on Camden. They talk about how one of Camden’s big issue is that they are know for the best heroin in the east coast so all the regional buyers go there.

    Funny is of all the mind altering drugs. The one that can kill you in severe withdrawal is the one you got into the business of, alcohol. Not of the other one will kill you in withdrawals, withdrawals are nasty and ugly but not kill you.

    By the way you’ll end up paying for it either way. Either the cops gives him the Naxolone and keeps them out of danger, or they end up brain damage in a nursing home for life at $6,000+ a month. Pick your libertarian choice.

    You own a BMW, you are in Real Estate, you are in the Alcohol business. You got 3 strikes and still throwing stones. Shame on you.

  59. Godzilla in a pink moo-moo says:

    Joyce # 58

    Look up the LA Times. That story is not even the best one.

    During this week they arrested 18 sheriff deputies, many in management position. Charges include:
    – illegally arresting an Austrian Consulate official visiting a prisoner
    -threatening to arrest FBI agent trying to visit a prisoner who they change the identity on the computers to make look like he was released but actually kept in another cell.
    -beating up visitors to the jail at will

    This is a story that is interesting because of the following:

    Its very likely that regionalized police department will be the future in NJ because of cost issues. Right now these local departments do not have civilian oversight board because they are small department and any complains go the mayor who goes to the police chief.

    But regional/large entities without strong oversight tend to go berzerk. Lee Baca is above all a local politician, not a strong manager. In the article they mention how all the towns that are patrolled by the LA Sheriff Dept now want oversight representation, along the lines of LAPD’s after their Rampart scandal.

    This is a big warning to NJ when it goes regional with police agencies.

  60. Statler Waldorf says:

    “real estate is a solid investment tool to build wealth over time”

    It’s doubtful such a conclusion takes into account the mandatory maintenance costs, transaction costs, renovations, taxes, opportunity costs, etc, etc.

    And if one buys during a market high, they’ll pay a fortune each month to remain underwater, for a decade or more.

    Owning a house is a never-ending expense, not an investment.

  61. Street Justice says:

    If the Wall Street Journal says it’s true then it must be. Although we’ve suspected this for a long time, it’s now official and there’s even statistical evidence to back it up. A new report coming from the Wall Street Journal is reporting that a couple of studies from both the US and the UK are able to provide statistical evidence that BMW drivers are, shall we say, less polite than other drivers of other brands. A study done at the University of California found that BMW drivers “were far less likely to stop for a pedestrian who had just entered a crosswalk.”Capristo Reveals Soul of 458 Spider

    However, all of the drivers in the so-called “beater-car category” stopped for pedestrians. Not surprisingly, one research stated that in general “fancy cars were less likely to stop,” but that “BMW drivers were the worst.” But get this: even Toyota Prius drivers can be assholes. The research showed that, along with BMWs, Prius drivers were also “more likely to cheat at four-way-stop intersections.” BMW drivers, specifically males between the ages of 35 and 50, are also more likely to engage in road-rage behaviors, like swearing and being an overall douche.
    source: blogs.marketwatch.com

    http://www.carbuzz.com/news/2013/8/14/Turns-Out-BMW-Drivers-Really-Are-Douchebags-7715760/

  62. Statler Waldorf says:

    How else to describe people who claim “Your child was not really murdered, you’re actually an actor in part of a government plot.” Such lunatics are absolutely trampling upon the bodies of murdered children.

    joyce says:
    December 13, 2013 at 10:37 am

    29
    Statler,

    Exactly. But please don’t pull out the children card.

  63. Richard says:

    chicagofinance have a look at MET-A is another floating rate pref share. Is Libor + 1%, with at 4% floor, but trades more expensive than the ones you listed. I prefer it because it diversifies me a bit out of banks.

    Prefs are great but the duration is so long I’m afraid of getting crushed if/when inflation returns.

  64. joyce says:

    Right, but you referred to these lunatics as “false flag types”, correct? Was this horrible incident the only one believed to be fake by these lunatics? There not trampling on the murdered children… but of all the people in various events. They’re not picking out the children in particular.

    Statler Waldorf says:
    December 13, 2013 at 2:18 pm
    How else to describe people who claim “Your child was not really murdered, you’re actually an actor in part of a government plot.” Such lunatics are absolutely trampling upon the bodies of murdered children.

    joyce says:
    December 13, 2013 at 10:37 am

    29
    Statler,

    Exactly. But please don’t pull out the children card.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    If you are buying at a severe discount, the only way you get crushed is default, non-accumulation of dividends payable, credit spreads on the credit blowing out, and/or the current premium on the margin that you are effectively paying on the high floor (i.e. the stock trades higher because of the 4% floor, or 3% with my instrument).

  66. chicagofinance says:

    also, thank you

  67. chicagofinance says:

    to be clear…..any of these are possible….

  68. Arm the children. It’s the only way.

  69. Richard says:

    real estate is a solid investment tool to build wealth over time

    I think this is more true outside the tri-state. Property taxes 2-3% a year make it much tougher here than in other states.

  70. grim says:

    Go Long Detroit!

  71. grim says:

    Disgusted – Do you want to know what happens when we arm police to assist drug addicts in overdose?

    1 cop will do it incorrectly, the the druggie will die, and that druggie’s family will hit the ghetto mega millions when they sue the state for negligence and wrongful death.

    Don’t believe me? $165 million dollar suit against the state of NJ was just won. The state of NJ is now responsible for the actions of violent criminals.

    I AM DISGUSTED – WHY SHOULD I PAY FOR THIS CRIME

    http://www.nj.com/essex/index.ssf/2013/12/court_orders_185m_verdict_against_nj_dyfs.html#incart_river_default

    An Essex County jury today awarded a 4-year-old Hillside boy $165 million for his pain and suffering as well as the cost of the medical care he’ll need the rest of his life.

    The jury held the state’s Division of Youth and Family Services liable for the entire award, saying caseworkers should have removed Jadiel Velesquez from his Jersey City home before his father savagely beat him on July 16, 2009.

    Jadiel was 4 months old when he suffered a beating that left him blind and brain damaged.

    His father, Joshua Velesquez , is serving a six-year sentence for aggravated assault.

    Jadiel’s lawyer said it’s the largest verdict ever against the state of New Jersey.

  72. joyce says:

    grim,
    Stop using children to play with out emotions.

  73. JJ the Welfare Queen says:

    I should start a property tax grievance firm.

    Of course I am grieving my taxes after superstorm. But I managed to find a loophole to let me grieve the 2012 and 2013 taxes property taxes on place I bought which was paid by prior owner. I am also grieving two dead people and the few units in arrears taxes in buildings.

    So anyhow talking to Board and managing company and we agreed I would grieve taxes for entire building. Now I cant get money directly, but technically I can grieve in condo name, condo gets check in their name and then I do an assessment for exact amount of check we receive divided by number of units and mark it off as paid at same time.

    The Assessor and I were on phone and she agreed I could do it. Now some folks could have go check directly, but with two new owners, three dead owners since Sandy and a few in default the board thought it would be better for building to take it all, pay off debt from sandy and renovate building.

    On my own place I am grieving 2012 and 2013 on a double up grievance. I am grieving my lowered assessment and preparing my 2014 grievance.

    I got Between the multiple years and multiple condos plus my own house I got 93 tax greivances going on. Not hiring an outside person as cost it just me messing around on PC, everything is electronic.

    If I win it will be win of the century.

    Funny part tons of old people still in my condo building they will love me. If successful I solved the need for an assessment and lowered their taxes for life.

    NYS has a rule they can only raise assessed values a max of 20% over five years. I get a big win it will take 20 years to get us back to full taxes or the rest of their lives.

    I love the smell of a US Govt Form in the Morning.

    However, I might lose on all of them. WOW 100 losses at once.

  74. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [76];

    I should start a property tax grievance firm.

    Bad idea. Property tax grievance is a zero sum game that gets zeroed out every few years upon revaluation. If you help everyone else grieve their taxes, you’d just be making it harder to grieve your own, and end up carrying more of the weight yourself.

  75. The Original NJ ExPat, cusp of doom says:

    [76] & [77] JJ & Anon – About 15 years ago and earlier, when we had a stable and sane RE market, I believe there was a whole cottage industry of tax grievance businesses. I think it went like this – It was a all contingency- based. If they got you nothing, it cost you nothing, but if they got you a reduction the agent took the entire reduction as a fee and then went away. 15 years ago this made perfect sense because if your taxes were reduced $1,000 this year the lion’s share of that savings would carry through to succeeding years. Nowadays it seems if you paid a company $1,000 to get you a $1,000 reduction it could easily be wiped out by a $1200 raise the next year, netting you kind of nothing even though it actually is something, but certainly a much tougher sell these days.

  76. clotluva says:

    Reddit comments on housing prices:

    http://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/1st53c/eli5_when_my_parents_bought_a_house_in_the_70s_it/

    Read the comments…always good to have some fresh snark.

  77. FRTR says:

    #78

    Right on the money, again.

    Try that now. No, don’t.

    Did three closings and three contests/’greivences’ in one day once back then. I was the only participant not stressed out. Wife and I went out dancing that night. You know the place (only one in town(s) with live bands).

  78. Ben says:

    Bad idea. Property tax grievance is a zero sum game that gets zeroed out every few years upon revaluation. If you help everyone else grieve their taxes, you’d just be making it harder to grieve your own, and end up carrying more of the weight yourself.

    I’m sure he wouldn’t care about grieving his own taxes after he bills a few hundred people for his services.

  79. Marilyn says:

    Im a little sad that John Gambling is retiring. That’s where I get a lot of my Tri state info. Too bad!!! 88 Years of Gambling’s on the radio GONE!!

  80. I have multiple grievances.

  81. anon (the good one) says:

    @MMFlint: Tonight, BrianWilliams ran the names of the 173 children (under age12)killed by ppl w/ guns in the year since Newtown http://t.co/cyePxpo7hI

  82. anon (the good one) says:

    @MMFlint: We LOVE using violence. We invade countries that don’t attack us. We execute criminals. We need 100 bullets to… do what? Shoot a deer?

  83. Njescapee says:

    Chilling here at the Key West Christmas lighted boat parade.

  84. Phoenix says:

    Colorado shooting…

    The rampage might have resulted in many more casualties had it not been for the quick response of a deputy sheriff who was working as a school resource officer at the school, Robinson said.

    Once he learned of the threat, he ran — accompanied by an unarmed school security officer and two administrators — from the cafeteria to the library, Robinson said. “It’s a fairly long hallway, but the deputy sheriff got there very quickly.”

    The deputy was yelling for people to get down and identified himself as a county deputy sheriff, Robinson said. “We know for a fact that the shooter knew that the deputy was in the immediate area and, while the deputy was containing the shooter, the shooter took his own life.”

    He praised the deputy’s response as “a critical element to the shooter’s decision” to kill himself, and lauded his response to hearing gunshots. “He went to the thunder,” he said. “He heard the noise of gunshot and, when many would run away from it, he ran toward it to make other people safe.”

    Ummm, isn’t that his job? I guess I could be mistaken about the job description of a deputy……

  85. Confront these armed nutjobs with a little of their own medicine, and these gruesome skool shootings will stop.

  86. Nah. Why do that? It makes sense, and the gubmint will not be able to keep us in a state of suspended terror.

  87. zieba says:

    Phoenix, concerning the deputy snippet: ‘errbody gets a star.

    It is currently raining in southern Bergen Co. We got an inch of two and now everything is in the process of being coated with a crust of ice. Getting around is certainly is going to be interesting tomorrow!

    I should have gone skiing.

  88. joyce says:

    Phoenix,
    Come on, man. They’re heroes. Never forget that, even when 95% of their job is traffic.

  89. joyce says:

    Hey anon,
    You’re posting on Saturday night…didn’t you have any plans? Go look up that article you posted a little while ago about masturbation.

  90. Bystander says:

    clotluva,

    Great comments…lots of people do get it. Here is my favorite:

    hollingm:

    Step 1. Be born to wealthy parents, or frugal parents who amass significant wealth over their lifetimes.

    Step 2. Be a horrible baby, turning your parents off the idea of having a second child.

    Step 3. Be nice to your parents from your teen years onward.

    Step 4. Wait for your parents to die.

    Step 5. Inherit their estate. With any luck, you inherited a nice house and their monetary wealth is just gravy.

    If you screwed up step 1, then you’re f**ked.

  91. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [18] anon

    “According to Slate’s gun-death tracker, an estimated 11,348 people have died as a result of gun violence in America since the Newtown massacre on December 14, 2012”

    Sadly, you aren’t among them.

  92. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [92] Joyce

    LMAO. If anon would only take up Russian Roulette instead I’d let him borrow a revolver.

  93. Ben says:

    He praised the deputy’s response as “a critical element to the shooter’s decision” to kill himself, and lauded his response to hearing gunshots. “He went to the thunder,” he said. “He heard the noise of gunshot and, when many would run away from it, he ran toward it to make other people safe.”

    Ummm, isn’t that his job? I guess I could be mistaken about the job description of a deputy……

    Yeah, but how many times have we seen them stay outside of the building. They sat outside that pathmark building for hours in Old Bridge during that shooting prior to ever entering.

  94. chicagofinance says:

    Peter O’Toole < Vigoda

  95. Fast Eddie says:

    I’m watching the Giants right now (have no idea why) with laptop on couch and looking at houses. These sellers below should be embarrassed for asking this price. It’s laughable and I really think I need to email the listing agent and tell him/her that I’m insulted. In fact, I think I should low ball these m’fkers just to shove it in their face. If any of you want to write up the contract, let me know. I’m dead f.ucking serious. I’m offering 60% of their ask and my offer is good for 24 hours.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1341192&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  96. Fast Eddie says:

    Here’s another one. Unbelievable. Simply unbelievable. They’re asking $850,000 for this after originally asking close to $900,000. One has to almost wonder if these listings are a f.ucking joke to prop up the other listings to make them look better. It’s illogical beyond reason. I mean, seriously, the f.ucking place is $300,000 over-priced. H0ly sh1t!

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1340242&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  97. Ben says:

    Eddie,

    just curious, if it were priced at $550k, would you actually put in the offer at list price?

  98. Fast Eddie says:

    After you put $125,000 down, this one will cost you $4,000 per month in PITI and monthly fees for a condo… a condo… a condo. Just wow.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1339109&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  99. Fast Eddie says:

    Ben,

    Yes, d.amn close to it. I would put in an offer for around that price.

  100. Fast Eddie says:

    And Manning has 5 interceptions today. Wonderful.

  101. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [103] Eddie

    Curious to see how many he completed to his own team. Would really suck if it were 5 or less.

    Man, I feel for you Eddie and the rest of the Gints fans, it has been one ugly year (okay, I don’t, I love that the Giants are sucking, but it is the holiday season. Ho, Ho, Ho)

  102. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    Billy Jack < Vigoda

  103. grim says:

    Jesus you really found some terrible properties today

  104. NJGator says:

    Person shot during carjacking outside Short Hills mall, sources say

    http://www.nj.com/essex/index.ssf/2013/12/short_hills_mall_shooting.html#incart_m-rpt-1

  105. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a Captain Justice says:

    [108] gator,

    Not really a problem on this side of the Delaware, except maybe in Philly.

Comments are closed.