Deciphering the mortgage slowdown

From the Philly Inquirer:

Reasons for fewer mortgages so far in 2014

Applications for mortgages to buy houses have been lagging so far this year – 16 percent below the pace for 2013.

Yet, for the first time since 2009, applications to purchase are exceeding deals to refinance mortgages.

The lower numbers for home-buying mortgages reflect continued weakness in the real estate market, even though the 30-year fixed rate fell Thursday to 4.21 percent – its low for the year so far.

There are many reasons, according to economist Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics in West Chester.

Refinancing activity has dried up with higher mortgage rates, he said, and lending standards are tight, especially for first-time buyers.

“There is sticker shock due to a combination of higher rates and house prices,” as well as “underlying reticence to purchase a home, given the housing bust,” Zandi said, as evidenced by single-family rental being “real competition to buyers.”

Data from at least two sources, and some anecdotal evidence, show an increase in the number of all-cash, non-investor buyers in the first quarter of 2014.

There have always been cash purchases in the higher-end housing market.

Toll Bros. CEO Douglas V. Yearley Jr. said just that in a meeting last week in New York when asked about the effects tighter lending was having on the luxury-home builder.

Yearley said 20 percent of the Horsham-based company’s buyers are all cash, while those who take out mortgages put down 30 percent.

Guy A. Matteo, an agent with Re/Max Preferred in Newtown Square, agreed, saying that all-cash buyers comprise “a small percentage of my overall business – mostly higher end.”

Tighter credit requirements haven’t helped, said Jerome Scarpello, of Leo Mortgage in Ambler.

“Lenders have been told that if a borrower’s debt-to-income is over 43 percent, they lend at their own risk and do not have the safe-harbor protections of the agencies,” Scarpello said.

There is a misconception among many first-time home buyers that they will not qualify for financing under the new credit guidelines, which is not the case, said Malcolm Hollensteiner, director of retail lending sales and production at TD Bank.

One reason for the sluggish real estate market most often mention by Philadelphia-area agents and brokers is the shortage of inventory, which Zandi attributes to “a disconnect between potential buyers and sellers and the appropriate price.”

All-cash, then, might be a negotiating tool in some cases.

Martin Millner, of Coldwell Banker Hearthside in Yardley, said a listing in Lower Makefield, priced around $470,000, “generated multiple offers, and the buyer we contracted with is paying cash.”

RealtyTrac reported that, nationally, 42.7 percent of first-quarter sales were all-cash, compared with 19.1 percent in the same period a year ago, with Pennsylvania at 42.1 percent versus 21.8 percent in 2013, and New Jersey 40.6 percent versus 19.1 percent.

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108 Responses to Deciphering the mortgage slowdown

  1. grim says:

    Just a quick note – April contracts are showing a trend towards reversal, some areas showing STRONG year over year increases (not the areas you might expect – Paterson, Plainfield, Bloomfield, Belleville, etc), some areas showing declines, but on net many counties back to YOY increases. Inventory continues to fall.

  2. grim says:

    The off-the-chart shocker is Glen Ridge, again, an impressive 21 contracts in April vs 8 last year. Sold out, close the lights.

  3. anon (the good one) says:

    You write for the New York Times?

    Exact same words in Auto section this past Sunday. BMW i8 in Malibu.

    Ragnar says:
    May 12, 2014 at 3:06 pm
    Back from driving the BMW i8 through Santa Monica, Beverly Hills, and Malibu canyon highways. Pretty fun. The i3 though is a pretty practical e-car that just went on sale, as long as your commute is less than 75 miles per day. After tax credits the cost should be well under $40k, and the cabin is spacious on par with a 5 series. Zero to sixty in 7 seconds, faster than the BMW 325 of the 80s and 90s. But it’s pretty ugly. Any of you fuel efficiency guys interested in it?

  4. grim says:

    You are in for an ass whooping.

  5. Street Justice says:

    Grim in case you missed it yesterday….

    99.Street Justice says:
    May 12, 2014 at 10:33 pm
    “Hidden” mortgage fee paying for payroll tax cut

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hidden-mortgage-fee-paying-for-payroll-tax-cut/

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    chifi, street justice, AG, nwnj, eddie, xolepa, clot, to name a few

    “Average Americans Think They’re Smarter Than the Average American

    Forget being smarter than a fifth-grader. Most Americans think they’re smarter than everyone else in the country.

    Fifty-five percent of Americans think that they are smarter than the average American, according to a new survey by YouGov, a research organization that uses online polling. In other words, as YouGov cleverly points out, the average American thinks that he or she is smarter than the average American.

    The results are not surprising. Western cultures have a habit of inflating their self-worth, past research has shown. The most competent individuals also tend to underestimate their ability, while incompetent people overestimate it. Not out of arrogance, but of ignorance—the worst performers often don’t get negative feedback. In this survey, 28 percent of high school graduates say they are “slightly more intelligent” than average”

  7. Street Justice says:

    What a dumb ass

  8. Essex says:

    6. That figures may or may not reduce with age…..and awareness, or failure….

  9. grim says:

    5 – Almost wonder if this was the work of the GSEs – a poison pill – what better way to secure your future than to become a critical part of the government machine revenue stream. Killing the GSEs would now have significant political repercussions (raising taxes on the middle class). Well done.

  10. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [6] anon

    Case in point, see [6].

  11. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [6] anon

    “—the worst performers often don’t get negative feedback. ”

    I disagree. Many of us have given you plenty of that.

  12. jj says:

    Glenn Ridge along with other hotty totty blue ribbon towns where homes prices are rising quickly and are getting lots of sales will be beaten to death with property tax increases in next two to three years.

    The comps are causing assessed values to rise, new families entering school district and the impact of shore towns winning huge assessment reductions will be felt in the non-sandy towns.

    My town this 10-1-2014 school tax bill will be first tax bill that will show the reduction in assessed value from Sandy. 2015 will be first full year of reduced taxes in my town. The nearest blue ribbon town North of me out of flood area homes are selling very quickly and at higher and higher prices. The comps in next county wide assessment which happens every 4-5 years and is either 1-1-2015 or 1-1-2016 will make flood insurance seem like a walk in the park.

  13. Michael says:

    I think this was posted a week or two ago. I think the board missed a big point that this article hits when calculating buying vs renting. Chances are if someone is renting, they don’t have 250,000 to put in the S&P 500. So making an argument based on whether it is better to purchase a 250,000 home or rent, and put it in the S&P500 is really not a realistic argument.

    “What about the investment aspect? My friend Morgan Housel did the number crunching. I disagree with some of his basic assumptions. He writes: “Say you and I both have $250,000. I buy a house for $250,000 cash, and you rent a house across the street for $1,000 a month and put $250,000 in the S&P 500.”

    Let me stop right here and point out that this isn’t how most people purchase a home. They put up 20 percent — $50,000 in our current example — and finance the rest. The average person buying a $250,000 house has $50,000 to put down, and finances the remaining $200,000. (If they have $250,000, they might buy a $1.2 million house). That is 5-to-1 leverage, using fairly inexpensive capital. That changes the investment calculus considerably.

    The other factor is that you have to live somewhere. Paying down a mortgage is forced savings versus paying rent, which is money gone forever.”

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-06/hating-homeownership

  14. nwnj says:

    #13

    Property taxes aren’t bad in Newark either, but I wouldn’t live there or send my kids to the schools.

  15. Ben says:

    Chances are if someone is renting, they don’t have 250,000 to put in the S&P 500. So making an argument based on whether it is better to purchase a 250,000 home or rent, and put it in the S&P500 is really not a realistic argument.

    Sure it is. It was my exact situation. My wife and I had 2 incomes, we lived off one. Banked the other while renting a 1 bedroom apartment. It is totally realistic. Just very improbable given this generation’s willingness to go into debt by age 21 and their incessant need to blow $500 on a new phone every six months.

  16. Michael says:

    You have to be on crack, to own no real estate, and dump 250,000 (probably your entire savings) into the s&p500. This is stupid risky. Much better off buying (safer) a multi, living on the first floor, and renting out the rest. If people actually followed your advice, our country would be screwed. Way too much risk.

    Ben says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:00 am
    Chances are if someone is renting, they don’t have 250,000 to put in the S&P 500. So making an argument based on whether it is better to purchase a 250,000 home or rent, and put it in the S&P500 is really not a realistic argument.

    Sure it is. It was my exact situation. My wife and I had 2 incomes, we lived off one. Banked the other while renting a 1 bedroom apartment. It is totally realistic. Just very improbable given this generation’s willingness to go into debt by age 21 and their incessant need to blow $500 on a new phone every six months.

  17. prtraders says:

    Read an article last night in the Coast Star about drastic declining enrollment in Brielle schools. This is the town I’ve been looking in and have lost out on two bidding wars in the last two years. The reason cited for the declining enrollment was the economy. Apparently people with families that want to move to town cannot afford it and the folks that would be selling to them would rather stay than sell at a price that would bring those families in. Superintendent said that they were laying off 2 teachers and a speech pathologist for the coming year. So its a waiting game. Either the old empty nesters capitulate on price or the young families’ income rises to the point where they can afford. There are plenty of high priced home available, but the decent ones 400k – 500k go very quickly. This about as far as most people will go to commute to NYC . 500k is alot in southern Monmouth County.

  18. anon (the good one) says:

    so if you don’t buy a phone you will have $250,000 in the bank?

    i think more details are needed. what was your combined income?

    Ben says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:00 am
    Chances are if someone is renting, they don’t have 250,000 to put in the S&P 500. So making an argument based on whether it is better to purchase a 250,000 home or rent, and put it in the S&P500 is really not a realistic argument.

    Sure it is. It was my exact situation. My wife and I had 2 incomes, we lived off one. Banked the other while renting a 1 bedroom apartment. It is totally realistic. Just very improbable given this generation’s willingness to go into debt by age 21 and their incessant need to blow $500 on a new phone every six months.

  19. Xolepa says:

    (17) Michael, why the first floor instead of a higher level? I would’nt want to hear the bed rocking above me in the middle of the night.

  20. Ragnar says:

    I think being an envious redistributionist is a job requirement for NY Times employment, so no. BMW did a 2 week long Press and Investor event in Santa Monica, where they basically took over the Viceroy Hotel and the Santa Monica convention center. Mapped out 2 recommended 2-hour drives through LA & Malibu, so everyone who spent the 4 hours driving took similar routes. I suspect we will see similar stories in Road & Track, Car & Driver, etc. A fleet of 19 BMW i8 cars were present. They used the i3 as limos to carry people to various functions.

  21. chicagofinance says:

    I scored 790 on my math section SAT…..but I’m a white male, so the proctor told me to check my privilege as part of the verbal instructions during the exam.

    anon (the good one) says:
    May 13, 2014 at 7:43 am
    chifi, street justice, AG, nwnj, eddie, xolepa, clot, to name a few

    “Average Americans Think They’re Smarter Than the Average American

  22. chicagofinance says:

    I saw my first Tesla on the road in Red Bank. Kinda looked like a Ford, except for the T logo……..however, when you buy a $80K car, you kind of look like a piker with a bumper sticker on it…..especially when you are lauding about not burning fossil fuel.

    Apparently this owner has no concept about how electricity is generated, and what type of environmental damage is caused during the manufacturing of the battery……

  23. Juice Box says:

    Chi – I see Teslas all the time on the parkway. Usually some white haired do-gooderd behing the wheel doing 55 mph and holding up traffic.

  24. Michael says:

    Pick your poison, stairs or noise. lol

    Xolepa says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:16 am
    (17) Michael, why the first floor instead of a higher level? I would’nt want to hear the bed rocking above me in the middle of the night.

  25. Street Justice says:

    Christie expected to either sign or veto S993 (bans gun magazines larger than ten rounds) and A2777 (further restricts “reasonable deviation”) soon. Both bills on his desk.

  26. Michael says:

    Great post!!! Must admit, I laughed pretty hard.

    “Apparently this owner has no concept about how electricity is generated, and what type of environmental damage is caused during the manufacturing of the battery……”

  27. WestJester says:

    The environmental effects of L-Ion seem moderate and easier to address at the generation source than IC while other techs like NiZn develop.

  28. Juice Box says:

    i3 – is made of allot of carbon fiber. The new BMW Carbon Fiber plant in Washington state is hooked up to a very large Dam, since the cost of generating the electricity to make carbon fiber in Germany is prohibitive. Carbon panels will be assembled in Germany not here.

    Carbon fiber is difficult to recycle, but it gets worse. By its very nature it is neither biodegradable nor photo degradable. So when all of those i3 quarter panels get dented they will be sent by the body shop to a landfill instead of being recycled like plastic or metals.

  29. Michael says:

    Impressive!!

    chicagofinance says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:18 am
    I scored 790 on my math section SAT…..but I’m a white male, so the proctor told me to check my privilege as part of the verbal instructions during the exam.

  30. Phoenix says:

    Fact or Fiction? All I know is when I was in Switzerland my friend who grew up there showed me how much the glaciers melted. For my kid’s sake I hope these guys are just a bunch of kooky alarmists….
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/05/12/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-stability-sea-level-rise/9001819/

  31. Phoenix says:

    I like Chinese solar panels. Why did my govt choose to tariff the only thing I really want/need from there?

  32. Michael says:

    Def a fact. Whether or not man made, it is happening.

    Phoenix says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:05 am
    Fact or Fiction? All I know is when I was in Switzerland my friend who grew up there showed me how much the glaciers melted. For my kid’s sake I hope these guys are just a bunch of kooky alarmists….
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/05/12/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-stability-sea-level-rise/9001819/

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [26] street,

    Really a nonissue unless the law has no grandfathering provision. All the high cap mags you want are available across the bridge in PA or Delaware. Cabela’s just opened a new superstore at Christiana Mall in Newark, right off 95. So if you are bringing the family back from DC or Rehobeth, stop in and stock up.

  34. Michael says:

    Too funny!!

    Phoenix says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:06 am
    I like Chinese solar panels. Why did my govt choose to tariff the only thing I really want/need from there?

  35. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [33] Michael

    A cold day in Hell (pun intended) but I agree with you.

    The entire climate change war could be sidetracked by a position holding that, irrespective of blame or whether you believe in one particular effect, there are a myriad of problems attending fossil fuel use and we would do well to mitigate them.

  36. Phoenix says:

    36.
    Could also be helped by just removing the tariff on Chinese solar panels.
    Of course those that lobby for the electric companies will not allow this to happen.
    Capitalism would work much better without someone somewhere manipulating things to work in their favor. As long as there are lobbyists with a heartbeat there will never be true capitalism. Too bad they don’t like to sleep with camels.

  37. jj says:

    Depends 100% when you did it. March 9, 2009 I would say a person who dumped 250K in the s&P 500 versus a dope who bought a house for 250K cash is laughing all the way to the bank.

    March 9, 2000 person who dumped 250K into the S&P 500 versus buying a house for 250K was crying every day for next few years.

    17.Michael says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:04 am
    You have to be on crack, to own no real estate, and dump 250,000 (probably your entire savings) into the s&p500. This is stupid risky. Much better off buying (safer) a multi, living on the first floor, and renting out the rest. If people actually followed your advice, our country would be screwed. Way too much risk.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [26] street,

    Interesting that the law has a forced sale provision, and if you cannot sell in 180 days, you forfeit. Expect an action to force the state to pay for all high cap mags turned in.

    If anyone wants to sell Ruger or Bushmaster compatible mags, let me know. I can easily hook you up with a buyer.

    At least the bill sensibly excluded the Marlin tubeloaders popular with young shooters.

    Finally, they decided not to correct what I see as a glaring problem with the bill–A catchall provision allows any semiauto rifle capable of holding a high cap mag to be deemed a banned “assault rifle.” Probably won’t pass constitutional muster as it is hopelessly open-ended. Naturally, the cost of fighting the law is higher than the cost of the weapon seized and that is by design.

  39. Street Justice says:

    No grandfathering. You have 180 days to dispose of them or you are a felon subject to 10 years in prison, with a 3 year mandatory minimum sentence.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:17 am
    [26] street,

    Really a nonissue unless the law has no grandfathering provision. All the high cap mags you want are available across the bridge in PA or Delaware. Cabela’s just opened a new superstore at Christiana Mall in Newark, right off 95. So if you are bringing the family back from DC or Rehobeth, stop in and stock up.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [26] street,

    That “reasonable deviation” exception is a joke.

  41. Street Justice says:

    Fulop jumping on the bandwagon…cuz you know, everybody from jersey hates guns. What do you need that thing for anyway?

    Steven Fulop ‏@StevenFulop 53m
    Today’s @WSJ: JC considered 1st in US to question police #weapons suppliers & step closer to safer JC http://on.wsj.com/1lfbLKr @heatherhaddon

  42. Street Justice says:

    That’s the reason gun rights people are fighting for carry rights in NJ. Getting a ccw permit is the only way to legally travel in the state with a gun without risking a weapons charge if you are not going directly to a range. Making a mistake could cost you 3 years of your life. CCW permits as you probably know, are impossible for the average citizen to get in NJ.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:36 am
    [26] street,

    That “reasonable deviation” exception is a joke.

  43. Michael says:

    Same thing with stocks. Imagine buying 250,000 of stock late 2007.

    jj says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:31 am
    Depends 100% when you did it. March 9, 2009 I would say a person who dumped 250K in the s&P 500 versus a dope who bought a house for 250K cash is laughing all the way to the bank.

    March 9, 2000 person who dumped 250K into the S&P 500 versus buying a house for 250K was crying every day for next few years.

    17.Michael says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:04 am
    You have to be on crack, to own no real estate, and dump 250,000 (probably your entire savings) into the s&p500. This is stupid risky. Much better off buying (safer) a multi, living on the first floor, and renting out the rest. If people actually followed your advice, our country would be screwed. Way too much risk.

  44. Michael says:

    Well said!

    Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    May 13, 2014 at 10:20 am
    [33] Michael

    A cold day in Hell (pun intended) but I agree with you.

    The entire climate change war could be sidetracked by a position holding that, irrespective of blame or whether you believe in one particular effect, there are a myriad of problems attending fossil fuel use and we would do well to mitigate them.

  45. WestJester says:

    Carbon fiber is successfully being recycled in a similar way as is paper. It is early days, of course.
    Cars now contain composites. The recycling issues aren’t unique to any particular manufacturer.

  46. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Could be that close to 90% of that group is correct, no?

    Fifty-five percent of Americans think that they are smarter than the average American,

  47. Street Justice says:

    Using less fossil fuels seems to have had an unintended consequence…

    This is your fault Grim…

    DOT Secretary: ‘The Roads You’re Driving On Will Crumble…’
    May 13, 2014 – 5:31 AM
    By Susan Jones

    http://cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/dot-secretary-roads-youre-driving-will-crumble

    “This may be the most dire moment the American transportation system has faced in decades,” Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx told reporters at the White House on Monday.

    “Unless Congress acts, up to 700,000 Americans will lose their jobs over the next year,” he said. Road work, bridge-building and transit maintenance projects “may be delayed or shut down completely,” slowing trade and causing businesses not to hire.

    “And by the way, your morning commute will be longer because the roads you’re driving on will crumble, and no one will show up to fix it,” Foxx said.

    The dire scenario results partly from the insolvency of the Highway Trust Fund, a problem that’s been years in the making.

    The trust fund — which depends on gasoline taxes — is projected to run out of money by August, partly because people are driving more fuel-efficient cars, which means less tax money coming in.

  48. Juice Box says:

    re: #46 – Right now the woven fabric material made from carbon fiber manufacturing cannot be recycled to be reused in building another car or airplane. Right now it is not being recycled and will go to a landfill. Name a recycling facility that takes this stuff from auto body shops and prove me wrong.

  49. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [18] pr – This is traditionally a long, slow cycle in NJ. The HS I went to was bursting at the seams by the late 60’s/ early 70’s to the point where they built a second Regional HS to accommodate the massive amount of new homes being built in Morris County. Graduating classes climbed until the early 80’s, about 20 years after most of the homes were built, then school enrollment dropped for almost two decades as empty nesters stood pat in homes that were no longer starter homes. Even now, about 50% of the homes on my old street are occupied by empty nesters who bought those houses in their mid 20’s about 50 years ago, while the other 50% of houses have turned over 4 or 5 times by now. I wonder if purchasers of new homes stay in them longer, all other factors being equal?

    Read an article last night in the Coast Star about drastic declining enrollment in Brielle schools. This is the town I’ve been looking in and have lost out on two bidding wars in the last two years. The reason cited for the declining enrollment was the economy. Apparently people with families that want to move to town cannot afford it and the folks that would be selling to them would rather stay than sell at a price that would bring those families in. Superintendent said that they were laying off 2 teachers and a speech pathologist for the coming year. So its a waiting game. Either the old empty nesters capitulate on price or the young families’ income rises to the point where they can afford. There are plenty of high priced home available, but the decent ones 400k – 500k go very quickly. This about as far as most people will go to commute to NYC . 500k is alot in southern Monmouth County.

  50. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [50] Another factor, many of the original purchasers were part of the “white flight” from the NY boros in the mid and late 60’s. They came from generations of staying put in a particular neighborhood.

  51. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Carbon fiber seems like an impractical material for mass market cars. Expensive and not repairable or recyclable. There’s also more than a couple disabled race car drivers who have had their legs “loaded up” with carbon fiber. Crumple zones work much better when constructed from steel.

  52. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [53] Aluminum is great for some automotive applications and largely used for engine blocks and heads these days. Every Mazda Miata has an aluminum hood (as well as the battery in the trunk) to achieve it’s near perfect weight distribution. Some exotic cars (Acura NSX, for example) have suspension members made out of forged aluminum and this cuts down considerably on the unsprung weight of the car without sacrificing strength. The problem with aluminum suspension components is that once bent, they can’t be un-bent and pulled back into alignment like steel components, they must be replaced.

  53. Street Justice says:

    Aluminum Alloy F150 durability testing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4FHa03dm9E

  54. Ben says:

    You have to be on crack, to own no real estate, and dump 250,000 (probably your entire savings) into the s&p500. This is stupid risky. Much better off buying (safer) a multi, living on the first floor, and renting out the rest. If people actually followed your advice, our country would be screwed. Way too much risk.

    lol, I didn’t dump money into the S&P. Circa early 2009, all my money went straight into gold, silver and petroleum. Meanwhile, any savings accumulated went into dividend stocks like Verizon, Coke, Pepsi, Heinz, Sanofi, Altria etc….

    It was dead obvious that just about every other asset classes would outperform real estate over the next 5 years from that point. I quadrupled my net worth over those 4 years. Had I bought a home at that point, I would be a few hundred thousand behind where I am today. I bought in October last year. The main reason was the low interest rates, I have a kid and another on the way, and the house is a dream. And, btw, this ain’t no starter home. I’m going to live in this place for 30 years.

    But realistically, anyone in their 20s should be renting a small place, banking money, putting some of it in safe quality investments that have decent return. They can buy a home when they reach 30s.

  55. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [43] street,

    Well aware of how things are in Jersey. Also well aware of how the police and courts operate to enforce an anti-gun agenda even where some protections are afforded. If I were to drive to NH with my guns, I may just consider driving up through NYS and around NJ, or keeping my time in the state to a minimum. Even then, I would hide the guns and gun cases from view such that there could be no argument about probable cause or reasonable suspicion. Give yourself layers of protection.

    The reasonable deviation exceptions are a joke because they are extremely limited and still subject to some interpretation. Further, you are up against a huge proof problem in that there is one truth on par with death and taxes–Cops Lie.

  56. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [48] street,

    The reason I won’t buy hybrids or electrics is that eventually they will get hit with extra taxes to make up for gas tax losses. This is happening.

    So, if hybrids are subject to replacement taxes that negate part of the benefit, and are more expensive because you are prepaying for gas savings, and widespread use of hybrids will cause gas prices to moderate, it makes no economic sense to get a hybrid.

    In effect, the hybrid drivers will be subsidizing me. I like that.

  57. jj says:

    With the S&P 500 at an all time high today it means every single day in your entire life buying the S&P 500 was a smart decision.

    If someone bought the S&P 500 in Spring 2007 and reinvested all dividends they would of had a crazy ride but would have done very well, if they bought a house Spring 2007 they would never make back that loss

    44.Michael says:
    May 13, 2014 at 11:00 am
    Same thing with stocks. Imagine buying 250,000 of stock late 2007.

  58. NJGator says:

    Grim #2 – We are the little town that could! There is so little inventory active now….unless you’re willing to live near East Orange or backing up to a cemetery. One house listed now between $600-$700k…everything else is listed at $975k or higher.

    You want your discount in GR…wait until this year’s NJ ASK scores come back for 3rd and 4th grade in the fall. Our school hosted a giant 259 kid slumber party last weekend as a reward for the kids collectively reading over 3 million minutes school wide. Lil Gator went to bed “early” at 1am. NJ ASK started on Monday. Come September people are going to be scratching their heads asking what has gone wrong in our little Blue Ribbon District. You heard it here first.

  59. Michael says:

    JJ, it was the biggest real estate bubble in history. That’s where you comparisons are off. Most of the time, purchasing real estate is a lot safer than stocks. We are in the midst of one of the greatest runs in stock market history, and of course you guys are sucking off the stock market. Do you remember all the articles about the stock market in 2008? How people said they would never ever trust the stock market again? Of course you don’t, you got lucky the stock market made a come back in less than 5 years, and now think it’s the greatest investment ever. Trust me, there are a lot of people who will not touch stocks anymore. Most people think they can’t compete with people using insider information. How can you compete with people who are manipulating your moves and profiting off that? Scary stuff. Please don’t tell me the stock market is based on fundamentals either, that was a long time ago.

    jj says:
    May 13, 2014 at 12:17 pm
    With the S&P 500 at an all time high today it means every single day in your entire life buying the S&P 500 was a smart decision.

    If someone bought the S&P 500 in Spring 2007 and reinvested all dividends they would of had a crazy ride but would have done very well, if they bought a house Spring 2007 they would never make back that loss

    44.Michael says:
    May 13, 2014 at 11:00 am
    Same thing with stocks. Imagine buying 250,000 of stock late 2007.

  60. Anon E. Moose says:

    Just what the Newark schools needed, $100,000,000 would solve all their problems, right? Tax the “rich” and repate nationwide to glorious acclaim, right? Michael, Anon? What could possibly go wrong?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-gave-jersey-100-130400933.html

  61. joyce says:

    From a very young age (and, needless to say, still to this day), I never understood why just a cop’s word was good enough for a conviction. I remember asking my dad after he got some b.s. ticket why he couldn’t just go to court and fight it because there was nothing to go on other than the cop’s word. He tells me that’s all the judge needs to hear and he’ll just waste his time and still lose. I said I thought we were innocent until proven guilty and it’s just your word against his, that’s not proof beyond a reasonable doubt! He then says that’s all well and good but in reality that’s the furthest thing from the truth. The system would grind to a halt.

    cash register kangeroo courts

    57.Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
    May 13, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    Cops Lie.

  62. NJGator says:

    Only the best and brightest, folks…

    New Brunswick fire director Robert Rawls who hit kids in crosswalk has 19 accidents on record

    NEW BRUNSWICK – A New Brunswick fire director who struck three children who were crossing the street after school had 18 other accidents on his record, according to Motor Vehicle Commission record information obtained by News 12 New Jersey.
    Robert Rawls received summonses for careless driving and failure to stop for a pedestrian in a crosswalk after hitting the two 14-year-old girls and a 6-year-old boy with his city-owned SUV last week, authorities said. The incident sent the three kids to the hospital.
    Records obtained from the MVC show Rawls had his license suspended 18 times during his lifetime. He has gone to court nine times for violations.
    READ MORE: New Jersey Top Stories
    The tickets issued to Rawls for last week’s incident are motor vehicle violations and Rawls is not charged with a crime.

    The Middlesex County prosecutor’s office is investigating the accident.

    http://newjersey.news12.com/news/new-brunswick-fire-director-robert-rawls-who-hit-kids-in-crosswalk-has-19-accidents-on-record-1.8007484?p=356833

  63. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [63] joyce,

    Get one that has sound recording capability.

    http://www.sharperimage.com/si/view/product/Front-and-Rear-Recording-Dash-Cam/201735

    Further, while I haven’t had occasion to do so, I plan to turn on the audio recorder on my phone should I get pulled over. A passenger can do this as well. Keep it unobtrusive and definitely out of your hands. Cops will argue that this is interference with a police function but that’s a hard sell when it only comes up at trial.

  64. anon (the good one) says:

    while most on this site complain about taxes, their real beef is not taxes but black people.

    tiny pct goes to Newark. army, social security, socialized medicine for the elderly are the issues if you had a real beef with taxes

    the “rich” get taxed to support the most powerful arm forces in the world

    Anon E. Moose says:
    May 13, 2014 at 12:48 pm
    Just what the Newark schools needed, $100,000,000 would solve all their problems, right? Tax the “rich” and repate nationwide to glorious acclaim, right? Michael, Anon? What could possibly go wrong?

  65. jcer says:

    Anon, Newark is the Essex County property tax siphon.

  66. WestJester says:

    As I said; it is early days. The volume of carbon fiber waste is miniscule.
    You asserted that it cannot be recycled to make another car or airplane. That is simply false. It is true that it cannot be used in the same way as virg1n material.
    While the new assertion concerning auto body waste may be presently correct, it applies to all manufacturers.
    I spent a lot of time counting up tons of material being landfilled after processing from auto repair and ‘recycling’ facilities.
    http://www.elgcf.com/
    http://www.emergingmit.com/

  67. jj says:

    Michael take stocks vs real estate over last 100 years and stocks is clear winner.

    And all of it involves “keeping powder dry” and “striking while the iron is hot”

    Real Estate from 1992 to 2002 and 2011-2013 was pretty good. Stocks from 1988 to 1988 and 2009 to 2013 were very good, junk bonds in Fall of 2008, Fall of 2002 and March 2009 to March 2014 very good. Long Term Muni bonds pretty much 1978 till now a huge long term winner

    Old saying is you dont have to make it back where you lost it. Real Estate can go for years being a very bad investment. You still need to invest in those years hence you need to do the other invesments.

  68. jj says:

    With the S&P 500 at an all time high today it is safe to say no one in the entire history of the stock market has ever lost money!!!!

  69. Michael says:

    lol…this proved exactly what I said a while ago on this issue. It’s funny, the teachers get all the blame, things like overpaid, pensions, benefits, etc… Look at what this article highlights. All the money goes to big dogs. I’ll repeat, the money goes all to the big dogs. So when people cry about all this money going to abbot districts, please realize most of that tax money designated for abbot districts ends up right back in the suburbs. So basically abbot funding becomes welfare for the rich and connected. Beautiful thing. I have a great idea, let’s blame the teacher, it’s all their fault. I wonder how much of this money went to booker’s campaign.

    “Between 2010 and 2012, The New Yorker reports that “more than twenty million dollars of Zuckerberg’s gift and matching donations went to consulting firms with various specialties: public relations, human resources, communications, data analysis, [and] teacher evaluation.” Many of the consultants were being paid upwards of $1,000 a day.”

    Anon E. Moose says:
    May 13, 2014 at 12:48 pm
    Just what the Newark schools needed, $100,000,000 would solve all their problems, right? Tax the “rich” and repate nationwide to glorious acclaim, right? Michael, Anon? What could possibly go wrong?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-gave-jersey-100-130400933.html

  70. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:
  71. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [66] anon

    “while most on this site complain about taxes, their real beef is not taxes but black people.”

    I didn’t know you were black. Now I suppose disagreeing with you is racist, right?

    (no matter, you think it of me anyway).

  72. Street Justice says:

    Pay your fair share you ungrateful B@stards. What? Do you rich people hate minorities or children or something? Shame on you!

    Federal Tax Revenues Set Record Through April
    May 13, 2014 – 12:01 PM
    By Terence P. Jeffrey

    http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/federal-tax-revenues-set-record-through-april

    Federal tax revenues continue to run at a record pace in fiscal 2014, as the federal government’s total receipts for the fiscal year closed April at $1,735,030,000,000, according to the Monthly Treasury Statement.

    Despite this record revenue, the federal government still ran a deficit of $306.411 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year, which began on Oct. 1, 2013 and will end on Sept. 30, 2014.

    -snip-

    The single largest source for the federal government’s record tax receipts in the first seven months of FY 2014 was the individual income tax, which brought the Treasury $823.079 billion. The second largest source was what the Treasury calls “Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts,” which includes the Social Security payroll tax, the unemployment insurance tax and other retirement taxes. This accounted for $602.698 billion in tax revenue.

    The third largest source of federal revenue in the first seven months of fiscal 2014 was the corporation income tax, which brought in $156.808 billion.

    As CNSNews.com previously reported, federal tax revenues for fiscal 2014 set records through February, through March, and through Tax Day, April 15.

  73. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Here’s how Carbon Fiber holds up in a crash:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkDpYM4LaR8

    and some bonus case law related to that crash for Nom (also details about the crash):

    http://www.lawskills.com/case/ga/id/216/48/index.html

  74. Juice Box says:

    re # 68 – BMW and Boeing have no plans to recycle the stuff just a statement that they are looking into it. Two start ups that do not have a commercially viable and profitable solution means thousands of tons of this stuff will end up in landfills before even an ounce is used in any other kind of carbon fiber recycling life cycle, it simply does not exist.

    Another more recyclable automobile product tires is just another example. How about those? Don’t most end up in the furnace? As for the miniscule amount recycled tires you will find those on the front lawns of some WT neighborhood used to grow plants.

  75. Michael says:

    JJ, I understand that stocks vs real estate, long-term stock market wins if everything goes as planned. Do we know if this will continue? That’s a tough call. Do you see insane growth that took place in the past 100 years continuing for the next 100 years? The world population is supposed to peak soon, and start going down. What kind of effect will this have on the stock market?

    jj says:
    May 13, 2014 at 1:29 pm
    Michael take stocks vs real estate over last 100 years and stocks is clear winner.

    And all of it involves “keeping powder dry” and “striking while the iron is hot”

    Real Estate from 1992 to 2002 and 2011-2013 was pretty good. Stocks from 1988 to 1988 and 2009 to 2013 were very good, junk bonds in Fall of 2008, Fall of 2002 and March 2009 to March 2014 very good. Long Term Muni bonds pretty much 1978 till now a huge long term winner

    Old saying is you dont have to make it back where you lost it. Real Estate can go for years being a very bad investment. You still need to invest in those years hence you need to do the other invesments.

  76. Michael says:

    80- *affect

  77. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    So housing can only go down in price. Excess supply.

    The world population is supposed to peak soon, and start going down.

  78. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^ That’s why the US needs to loosen security at the borders even more. So we can let more housing demanders in to support price.

  79. Michael says:

    Not so. Different migration patterns. People are not spreading out, they are moving back to cities or right outside cities. Middle America is dying as we know it. Real estate is not national, it is more localized than ever.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 13, 2014 at 2:33 pm
    So housing can only go down in price. Excess supply.

    The world population is supposed to peak soon, and start going down.

  80. WestJester says:

    Somehow I’m reminded of watching the greased pig chase at the county fair when I was young.

  81. Statler Waldorf says:

    What if they retired in 2006?

    “If someone bought the S&P 500 in Spring 2007 and reinvested all dividends they would of had a crazy ride but would have done very well”

  82. Anon E. Moose says:

    Anon [66];

    while most on this site complain about taxes, their real beef is not taxes but black people.

    So your counter argument is nothing more than ‘RACIST!’ That’s right out of central casting. I wonder if Anon is a sock a la RE101 — no real person can be that much of a caricature of a leftist.

  83. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    half right. Only to the cities, the close suburbs will end up with the poor who get pushed out of the cities.

    Not so. Different migration patterns. People are not spreading out, they are moving back to cities or right outside cities.

  84. joyce says:

    Don’t say that! We all know Clifton is golden.

    86.The Original NJ ExPat says:
    May 13, 2014 at 3:08 pm
    half right. Only to the cities, the close suburbs will end up with the poor who get pushed out of the cities.

    Not so. Different migration patterns. People are not spreading out, they are moving back to cities or right outside cities.

  85. Street Justice says:

    Everyone in the United States is trying to move to Glen Ridge, NJ. Everywhere else sucks and will go down in price.

    That is all

  86. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    They’re both high;-)

    while most on this site complain about taxes, their real beef is not taxes but black people.

  87. Street Justice says:

    http://www.currentscience.ac.in/Volumes/106/07/1008.pdf

    The results of the present study indicate that most of
    the glaciers were in a steady state compared to the results
    of other studies carried out for the period prior to 2001.
    This period of monitoring almost corresponds to hiatus in
    global warming in the last decade32. It may happen that
    an interval of one decade could be smaller than the
    response time of glaciers to be reflected in terms of any
    significant change with 23.5 m spatial resolution of data.
    This point requires further studies using high-resolution
    data for a longer interval of time.

  88. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Is “hedge fund industry best practices” an oxymoron?

    http://www.hedgeweek.com/2014/05/13/201987/coin-capital-launches-bitcoin-focused-hedge-fund

    Coin Capital Management has launched a Bitcoin-focused hedge fund, Coin Capital Partners, which will buy and hold the virtual currency in an institutional grade environment.

    “Coin Capital Partners will allow traditional hedge fund investors to take a long-term bullish stance on the value of the Bitcoin,” says Samuel Cahn, managing partner. “Our mission is to bring hedge fund industry best practices to the emerging virtual currency asset class.”

  89. jj says:

    Yes. I worked with a guy who said back when we were around Dow 2k if the DOW ever reaches 4k he was selling and getting out as that would be an all time peak.

    Well Dow blew by 2k right to 3k, right to 4k then right to 10K, we all laughed at 10K the DOW kept slip sliding back and forth over 10K and could not maintain it and some folks thought that was a peak, then we shot up to where we are today almost 17k.

    Big difference between a house and the DOW is you are reinvesting. You buy a house for 700K market dips to 400K and it recovers to 700k and you sell you took a big hit as it costs a lot to run a house and inflation.

    Buy stocks 700K and reinvest all dividends and sell a few years later you are sill way up.

    I bought a coop once for 27K, a car once for one hundred bucks, I paid $757 a month for a very small bedroom in Manhattan and had a $500 half share in the hamptons.

    My Mom and Dad paid $75 a month on our old two bed apartment in the Bronx when I was little and my Mom used to get paid $40 bucks a week when she worked in Manhattan.

    What prices can get to is always amazing over time. Housing and stocks unliked bank CDs etc keep up with inflation over time so they too should rise quickly.

    Heck just look at the price of electric or oil for a house!!!
    78.Michael says:
    May 13, 2014 at 2:19 pm
    JJ, I understand that stocks vs real estate, long-term stock market wins if everything goes as planned. Do we know if this will continue? That’s a tough call. Do you see insane growth that took place in the past 100 years continuing for the next 100 years? The world population is supposed to peak soon, and start going down. What kind of effect will this have on the stock market?

  90. Ben says:

    lol…this proved exactly what I said a while ago on this issue. It’s funny, the teachers get all the blame, things like overpaid, pensions, benefits, etc… Look at what this article highlights. All the money goes to big dogs. I’ll repeat, the money goes all to the big dogs. So when people cry about all this money going to abbot districts, please realize most of that tax money designated for abbot districts ends up right back in the suburbs. So basically abbot funding becomes welfare for the rich and connected. Beautiful thing. I have a great idea, let’s blame the teacher, it’s all their fault. I wonder how much of this money went to booker’s campaign.

    Yet you insisted we can’t turn the spigot off. Get rid of the abbot funding. It has not helped one bit. Give these kids a way out.

  91. jj says:

    Wow I was looking online and August Beach rentals are a lot more than July Beach rentals. It is rare year with five weekends in August and with Labor Day being Monday Sept 1st and August 1st being a Friday it is much more desirable than July which has
    July 1st on a Tuesday and July 31st on a Thursday.

  92. Libturd in Union says:

    “Everyone in the United States is trying to move to Glen Ridge, NJ. Everywhere else sucks and will go down in price.”

    Hell yeah!

  93. Fast Eddie says:

    Remember when Glen Ridge was the lead story on the National news? It certainly wasn’t a proud moment for the town.

  94. Michael says:

    JJ, my wife’s company, Vornado, look it up. If real estate was not worth investing in, why would this company exist. You treat all real estate the same, when it’s not. Man, if you could go back in time, and purchase rights to Manhattan, you would never say stocks beat real estate. Stocks beat generic, not in demand real estate, but they do not beat all levels of real estate. Remember, all land was worth nothing at one time. Now, you have some going for 13,000 a sq ft. Not all real estate is the same.

  95. Michael says:

    Let’s go Rangers!!!!!!

  96. Comrade Nom Deplume, Guardian of the Realm says:

    [98] Michael

    Okay, back to hating on you.

  97. jcer says:

    98 it’s a fine investment, but it requires a lot of knowledge and expertise. It’s not like equities which any punter can invest in and not lose everything. If you don’t know how to buy it right, run it right, sell it right you can be burned bad by real estate investments. It is a much more active investment than stocks or bonds. Vornado knows what they are doing and have expertise if they didn’t everyone could make direct real estate investments.

  98. anon (the good one) says:

    RIP

    awesome documentary

    @NewsBreaker: JUST IN: Police say Oscar winning ‘Searching for Sugarman’ director Malik Bendjelloul dies at 36 – @AP http://t.co/5LDeMyP5DN

  99. Street Justice says:

    Mark Zuckerberg gave New Jersey $100 million to fix Newark’s schools, and it looks like it was a waste

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-gave-jersey-100-130400933.html

  100. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    OMFG! I had written off the Rangers. Ugh.

  101. Ben says:

    of course it was a waste. Did you expect it to make it to the classroom?

  102. Street Justice says:

    @SamuelElToro: The notion that we should damn an entire generation to failing schools in order to save the jobs of sub-par teachers is ridiculous.

  103. Michael says:

    I’m fired up!!! What a comeback!!

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    May 13, 2014 at 9:57 pm
    OMFG! I had written off the Rangers. Ugh.

  104. Street Justice says:

    Here’s your $15/hr minimum wage folks…

    McDonald’s hires 7,000 touch-screen cashiers
    Would you like some microchips with that burger? McDonald’s Europe strikes another blow against human interaction by installing 7,000 touch-screen computers to take your order and money.
    by Amanda Kooser
    @akooser
    May 17, 2011 4:20 PM PDT Updated: May 18, 2011 4:59 AM PDT

    http://www.cnet.com/news/mcdonalds-hires-7000-touch-screen-cashiers/

  105. chicagofinance says:

    clot: would you dial it back a little you a%%wipe?

    Man claiming to be God crashes truck into TV station

Comments are closed.