More froth than a 5 dollar latte

From the Washington Post:

Millennials should be buying a home right now

Millennials, what are you waiting for? You should be buying a home right now. That’s the conclusion of a pair of recent studies that looked at homeownership.

Zillow, the online real estate Web site, considered how rising interest rates and home price appreciation would affect a buyers’ ability to purchase a home. Even though interest rates have been hovering at yearly lows, most observers expect them to begin rising soon. Home values have been steadily climbing for some time.

Assuming that home values stayed constant and that a home buyer would put 20 percent down and take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, Zillow found that a D.C. area buyer who waits one year to purchase a home would probably pay an additional $186 per month.

According to Erin Lantz, vice president of mortgages at Zillow, the rule of thumb is that a one percentage point increase in mortgage rates decreases affordability by 10 percent.

From Bloomberg:

House Punting: The Cost of Waiting to Buy in Hot Markets

When shopping for a big purchase, the line that “it never hurts to wait” often makes sense. But that’s only because by looking around more, you might find a better deal. Which is why, with interest rates expected to rise over the next few years and home-buying demand still heathy, following that advice could be costly in today’s real estate market.


To put a price tag on the possible cost of waiting to buy a home, real estate information website Zillow Inc. assumed that the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would rise 1 percentage point. It calculated how that higher rate — which would be about 5.1 percent — would affect a buyer’s monthly mortgage payments. Zillow applied that rate to the median home price in 35 metropolitan areas, assuming a 20 percent down payment and a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. 

(More assumptions that went into the calculations are here.)

The one-year waiting costs ranged from a minor $65 a month in St. Louis to a major $710 a month in San Jose, California. 



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129 Responses to More froth than a 5 dollar latte

  1. grim says:

    From Forbes:

    Cognitive Dissonance Alert: America Has A Housing Affordability Problem, And America Is Cheap

    The folks at the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard show that year after year, America’s housing affordability problem is getting worse: for example, more than 11 million renter households (or about one-quarter of renter households) in the US now spend more than half their incomes on rent.

    On the other hand, by world standards, housing in the US is cheap. I don’t mean by this that Kansas City is cheap–I mean that Los Angeles is cheap, again by world standards.

    There is a relocation website called Numbeo that uses survey data to estimate house price to income ratios for cities around the world. Poking around the site shows that pretty much all very large cities are expensive. Take a look at house price to income ratios for nine cities:

    All the cities I chose are either among the 20 largest in the world, or have extremely high densities. I did not cherry pick. Note that house price to income ratios in all cases but one (Mexico City) are higher than in New York, and in all cases are higher than Los Angeles. I have visited enough of these cities and poked around data enough to find the Numbeo numbers plausible.

    We may perhaps draw a few lessons from this: (1) large cities are expensive places, regardless of location around the globe, and (2) density, while good at producing the efficient use of land, does not by itself solve housing affordability problems. Take a look at Seoul, a lively, bracing, entrepreneurial city, where housing is very expensive.

  2. grim says:

    From NJ 101.5:

    Buying a house is more affordable in NJ

    Blomquist broke down New Jersey’s numbers a bit further.

    “In New Jersey, Cape May County had the least affordability,” he said. “In order to buy a median-priced home, median-income earners would have to spend 36 percent of their monthly income. Hudson and Essex Counties rounded out the bottom three. On the other end of the spectrum, Salem, Sussex and Cumberland counties were among the most affordable.”

    In fact, 81 percent of the U.S. population lives in markets where the percentage of income needed to purchase a median-priced home is at or below its long-term average, according to Blomquist. Consistently affordable markets included Wayne County, Michigan; Marion County, Indiana; and Baltimore City, Maryland; while some of the least affordable counties in the report included the five boroughs of New York City; San Fransisco County; and Nantucket County in Massachusetts. Markets that have both affordable housing and a good job market can be found mostly in the middle of the country near Columbus, Ohio, Oklahoma City and Minneapolis to name a few.
    One concern is that in most parts of the country, home prices are rising faster than incomes.

    “We’ve seen jobs come back, but not necessarily jobs that pay more, so that will be the next step that will help the housing recovery,” Blomquist said. “Even in New Jersey, when we look at the incomes, from 2008 to 2012, on average in the New Jersey counties they were down about 1 percent during that time period while home prices went up 4 percent. Those two trends can’t keep going in the direction they’re going and see affordability for housing continue to be favorable.”

  3. Another day in unaffordable housing hell.

  4. Can’t afford no stinking housing when all we do is sell each other hamburgers and fraudulent investments.

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    This agent that emails me reiterated just about everything I’ve been saying; there’s a dearth of inventory and a slew of underwater muppets. Again, the agent said I can’t believe the lack of inventory and also admitted there’s a lot of people that simply can’t sell. Thus, the unqualified seller which vastly outnumbers the unqualified buyer.

  6. Fast Eddie says:

    “Even in New Jersey, when we look at the incomes, from 2008 to 2012, on average in the New Jersey counties they were down about 1 percent during that time period while home prices went up 4 percent. Those two trends can’t keep going in the direction they’re going and see affordability for housing continue to be favorable.”

    Any questions?

  7. 1987 Condo says:

    With family renting here in kissimmee, looks like complex i am in originally sold 3-3 townhomes for $150,000 in 2003, folks were getting low 200’s in 2006 time frame and units are now selling as low as $49,000…

  8. We are all unqualified.

    Soon, the only necessary qualifications will be survival and frontiersman skills.

  9. grim says:

    http://www.g-a-i.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/DOJ-Report-8-61.pdf

    Financial fraud prosecutions are down 39 percent since the Enron and WorldCom disasters in 2003, and they are just one third of what they were during the Clinton years. Clinton’s DOJ prosecuted over 1,800 S&L executives, senior officials, and directors, and over 1,000 of them were sent to jail.5 The number three in George W. Bush’s DOJ formerly served as an attorney at the IRS, and a U.S. Attorney from the Southern District of Manhattan directed Bush’s Task Force. That Task Force did not exempt Jeffrey Skilling and Ken Lay from jail time, although Lay died before he was sentenced. Between 2002 and 2008, this task force obtained over 1,300 corporate fraud convictions, including those of over 130 corporate vice presidents and over 200 CEO and corporate presidents.6

    In 2009, the Justice Department promised more of the same. Holder aimed to make the Financial Fraud Enforcement Task Force the “cornerstone” of his efforts to restore confidence in the markets, threatening “To those who see the victimization of others as an avenue to wealth take notice: if you fabricate a financial statement, if you propagate an investment scheme, if you are complicit in an act of financial fraud, you are writing your ticket to jail.” He warned those who had committed financial crimes: “we will investigate you, we will prosecute you, and we will incarcerate you.”7

    Under Holder’s watch, federal prosecutions have doubled, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, a data-­‐gathering organization at Syracuse University.8 Health-­‐care fraud prosecutions reached a historic high in 2011 -­‐ a 68.9 percent jump from 2010. While prosecutions have similarly skyrocketed in civil rights abuses, the federal government has yet to file a single CRIMINAL prosecution against any top executive of an elite financial institution. Financial fraud prosecutions by the Department of Justice are in fact at a 20-­‐year low, although the DOJ explains that the number would be higher if new categories of crime were taken into account.

    The Attorney General described the budget allocated to the 2009 Task Force as “the largest-­‐ever, single-­‐year enhancement to support and expand the Justice Department’s financial fraud programs” and boasted that it would “allow for additional FBI agents, prosecutors and support staff to aggressively pursue mortgage fraud, corporate fraud, and other economic crimes.”9 If such a budget would allow the DOJ to more effectively and aggressively combat financial crime, how has Big Finance largely avoided prosecution? Phil Angelides, a Democratic former California treasurer and chair of the bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, described the lack of financial-­‐fraud prosecutions as “perplexing at best” and “deeply troubling at worst.”10

  10. grim says:

    The Obama Administration’s relationship with Big Finance is not just Washington as usual. In 2008, Obama’s largest private source of campaign funding came from Goldman Sachs executives. Candidate Obama outraised McCain on Wall Street -­‐ around $16 million to $9 million. Although Obama told Wall Street executives, “My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks,” it appears as though the President may be shielding Big Finance from anything like a severe accounting.3

    While the Justice Department is at present dominated from the top with corporate attorneys, whose links to the very financial institutions they are charged with investigating create conflicts of interest, Presidents George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush hired experienced prosecutors and attorneys to prosecute the financial titans who caused the Savings & Loan, Enron, and WorldCom crises.4

  11. grim says:

    After a career in the Clinton Justice Department, Attorney General Eric Holder returned to the DOJ in 2009 after spending nearly a decade at Covington & Burling (hereafter referred to as “Covington”), a top-­‐tier Washington law firm. As a Covington partner, Holder earned $2.1 million in 2008 and $2.5 million (including deferred compensation) in 2009, when he returned to the DOJ.11

    Covington currently represents Wells Fargo and J.P. Morgan Chase, each of which alone represents at least one percent of the firm’s total revenue, according to court disclosures.16,17 Covington also represents Bank of America, Citibank, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, ING, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Wilmington Trust – many of which the DOJ has investigated for potential criminal activity.18

    Covington was also involved in the creation of MERS, the electronic mortgage system that was ultimately behind the robo-­‐signing scandal. MERS was intended to speed up mortgage registration and transfers, but it led thousands of bank employees to sign their names as MERS officials. In 2004, Covington wrote an instrumental opinion letter for MERS that provided the legal justification for its electronic registry.19

  12. grim says:

    Prior to seeking bankruptcy protection, MF Global was also a client of Covington. In fact, MF Global owed Covington $114,275.55 “for services rendered prior to Oct. 31, 2011,” the day MF Global filed for its bankruptcy protection.25 MF Global’s chief, Jon Corzine, formerly represented New Jersey in the U.S. Senate and later served as governor of the state. During his stint at MF Global, Corzine bundled hundreds of thousands of dollars as a top fundraiser for the 2008 Obama campaign and began to play a similar role in the president’s re-­‐election effort.26 After the MF Global collapse, the campaign returned his personal donations but kept the other funds he bundled. Citing Corzine’s fundraising efforts, some 65 members of Congress have signed a letter calling on Holder to recuse himself and appoint a special prosecutor to investigate MF Global’s collapse and the loss of $1.6 billion in customer money.27 Other concerns stem from a Bloomberg report revealing that Corzine was considered for a Cabinet position in the Obama Administration.28

  13. grim says:

    The Obama Administration’s Task Force has been too busy to prosecute big finance. It has instead pursued small operators, sometimes absurdly small ones. None are connected to the large financial institutions where government reports have alleged so much fraud has taken place.

    Some examples from the Task Force’s own website:

    • Three older Connecticut women were arrested on federal criminal charges related to “gifting tables” they were running in suburban Connecticut.
    • In March 2012, The Task Force sent a property appraiser in Washington, D.C. to jail for 65 months for fraudulently inflated prices in a scheme to “flip” properties. They netted around $1 million in the scheme.
    • Two health care software company executives got 13 and 15 years for fraud, including their raid of Custodial Health Care Expense Accounts.
    • A resident in Florida was charged and sentenced to 14 months in federal prison for obstructing an SEC investigation by falsifying documents.
    • Five people in California were charged in December with bid rigging over Foreclosure Auctions. They are being charged with violating the Sherman Act and face up to 10 years in jail.
    • Federal officials went after ten people in Las Vegas for attempting to “fraudulently gain control of condominium homeowners’ associations in the Las Vegas area so that the HAOs would direct business to a certain law firm and construction company.”
    • The owner of a Miami company got 46 months in prison for a scheme to defraud the U.S. Export-­‐Import Bank. He created fraudulent loan applications.
    • Four people in Tacoma, Washington were indicted for conspiracy that resulted in the failure of a small bank. They made “false statements on loan applications, false statements to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.”45

    These offenses should sound familiar. They are the same allegations that have been made in government reports, in SEC filings, and against individual firms in civil courts. No doubt such behavior constitutes financial crime, but the Justice Department’s move to prosecute small operators over Big Finance is troubling, especially in light of top Justice officials’ relationships with elite financial institutions. As David Einhorn, a hedge fund manager, explains, the government is “not willing to take on significant misbehavior by sizable firms.”46 During the financial crisis, we became accustomed to the phrase “too big to fail.” Is it possible that some financial executives are “too big for jail?”

  14. anon (the good one) says:

    As always, the debates here are very educational

    For those of you who missed it, yesterday we had a good one on teachers. I’m pleased to share yesterday’s surprising results:

    1. Normal people think is odd that 25 hedge fund managers make more money than 500,000 teachers. Normal people think that those billionaires should pay taxes.

    Right-wing nuts are furious that people pay attention to income disparity. They abhor any scrutiny about the income of billionaires and accuse of envy anybody who thinks there’s something wrong with few individuals having more money than all of 50% of US population.

    2. Normal people think that teachers making $60,000 a year ($1,500 biweekly take home) is rational.
    Right-wing nuts are furious that teachers make a living income. They demand analysis, scrutiny, review, investigation as to reasons why they make a few pennies above minimum wage. It’s too uncomfortable to think that poor people demand a living wages….it is wrong, objectionable, dirty and corrupt.

    There you have it. You welcome.

  15. JJ says:

    According to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, U.S. housing prices are up more than 25% since the beginning of 2012. However, they still need to climb more than 20% to just reach their prerecession highs.
    More specifically, in June, existing-home sales climbed 2.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million from 4.91 million in May. On the plus side, this is the highest pace since October 2013; on the other hand, June existing-home sales are down 2.3%, below the 5.16-million-unit level reached last year.
    First-time home buyers, a benchmark for how well the U.S. economy is doing, accounted for just 28% of all purchases in May and June. The 30-year average — and a number that economists consider healthy — is 40%. For an economy that’s apparently rebounding, the annual decline is worse. In June 2013, first-time home buyers accounted for 29% of all purchases, and in June 2012, the year the U.S. housing market started to rebound, they accounted for 32% of purchases.

  16. Michael says:

    Who says money can’t buy you everything. Mr president and the govt were sold to the highest bidder a long time ago. Money is the root of all evil.

  17. Michael says:

    Lmao….another good one!!

    anon (the good one) says:
    August 7, 2014 at 8:22 am
    As always, the debates here are very educational

    For those of you who missed it, yesterday we had a good one on teachers. I’m pleased to share yesterday’s surprising results:

    1. Normal people think is odd that 25 hedge fund managers make more money than 500,000 teachers. Normal people think that those billionaires should pay taxes.

    Right-wing nuts are furious that people pay attention to income disparity. They abhor any scrutiny about the income of billionaires and accuse of envy anybody who thinks there’s something wrong with few individuals having more money than all of 50% of US population.

    2. Normal people think that teachers making $60,000 a year ($1,500 biweekly take home) is rational.
    Right-wing nuts are furious that teachers make a living income. They demand analysis, scrutiny, review, investigation as to reasons why they make a few pennies above minimum wage. It’s too uncomfortable to think that poor people demand a living wages….it is wrong, objectionable, dirty and corrupt.

    There you have it. You welcome.

  18. JJ says:

    According to the Book the Millionaire Next Door the Number one Occupation of Spouses of Male Millionaires are Teachers.

    My school district teachers get paid very well and most make like 100K a year.

    But those are all second incomes. All there husbands work.

    Also recently the Wall Street Journal did a study to see what type of spouses educated well off single women marry. The vast majority marry high income men. There is a stigma in society if a women marries a man who makes less than her.

    Men on the other hand like women who are available to raise their kids, be around.

    At one point I was helping run Catholic Singles parties. We were pretty big in the day. Parties with like 800. This may sound crazy but our original crowd was traders and we had all the traders at Morgan Stanley, US Trust, JP Morgan etc. etc. on the list. And we had a list of the largest 20 catholic colleges in the USA list of alumni who graduated in last ten years who live in Manhattan. Not long as word spread we started getting hit with tons and tons of single pretty school teachers who lived at home and lived in Long Island.

    The Traders who were like 32 and single lived in city and were rich and bagged enough girls and hos and were looking. Grabbed up these 24-28 year old single teachers with Masters like they were the rarest of jewels. The female traders and female “career women who lived in Manhattan the male traders wanted nothing to do with. Who wants to marry a 32 year old girl who works sixty hours a week and plans to keep on working after marriage who slept with 10-30 men while there are pretty 26 year old girls living at home with masters degrees who will be there to raise the kids and have “low mileage”

    Honestly, being a pretty young teacher is the ticket to being a mulit millionaire. Even at 30K.

    anon (the good one) says:
    August 7, 2014 at 8:22 am
    As always, the debates here are very educational

    For those of you who missed it, yesterday we had a good one on teachers. I’m pleased to share yesterday’s surprising results:

    1. Normal people think is odd that 25 hedge fund managers make more money than 500,000 teachers. Normal people think that those billionaires should pay taxes.

    Right-wing nuts are furious that people pay attention to income disparity. They abhor any scrutiny about the income of billionaires and accuse of envy anybody who thinks there’s something wrong with few individuals having more money than all of 50% of US population.

    2. Normal people think that teachers making $60,000 a year ($1,500 biweekly take home) is rational.
    Right-wing nuts are furious that teachers make a living income. They demand analysis, scrutiny, review, investigation as to reasons why they make a few pennies above minimum wage. It’s too uncomfortable to think that poor people demand a living wages….it is wrong, objectionable, dirty and corrupt.

    There you have it. You welcome.

  19. Fast Eddie says:

    G0d bless the rich on this beautiful morning! Without them, a majority of us here wouldn’t be able to enjoy paid vacations, perks, top benefits, a bonus and top pay as a reward for those that do instead of those that take.

  20. Michael says:

    Yes, why don’t you realize that wage inflation is coming and only then you will realize how cheap housing is today.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 7, 2014 at 7:02 am
    “Even in New Jersey, when we look at the incomes, from 2008 to 2012, on average in the New Jersey counties they were down about 1 percent during that time period while home prices went up 4 percent. Those two trends can’t keep going in the direction they’re going and see affordability for housing continue to be favorable.”

    Any questions?

  21. Essex says:

    20. and God bless tiny Tim.

  22. Michael says:

    Lol so if bill gates wasn’t here, no one replaces him? How do we know that bill gates’ monopoly of the early 90’s didn’t take out a competitor that would have helped the American economy more?

    Your way of thinking is that if we lose Peyton manning, the game is over. Far from the truth.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 7, 2014 at 8:36 am
    G0d bless the rich on this beautiful morning! Without them, a majority of us here wouldn’t be able to enjoy paid vacations, perks, top benefits, a bonus and top pay as a reward for those that do instead of those that take.

  23. Fast Eddie says:

    Michael = Rain Man

  24. painhrtz - whatever says:

    Clot I actually do own a flintlock

  25. Michael says:

    Ok smart man. Please justify how and why wages will stay flat?

    So you are telling me that products will not be able to adhere to the Feds inflation policy? You are telling me that the fed solved the problem of deflation/inflation? How the hell are prices going to rise without raises. You are a fool for thinking wage inflation is not coming. It should be obvious that it is inevitable!!! Wages just might stay flat or deflate forever. That might happen.

    Fast Eddie says:
    August 7, 2014 at 8:49 am
    Michael = Rain Man

  26. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Some thoughts on a subject I raised previously, from experts who are anything but conservative ideologues:

    “Make no mistake: Such proposals would do nothing to make the U.S. a more favorable place to locate multinational headquarters or investments. If they succeed—which is unlikely, given the creativity of tax planners and the potential large tax savings at stake—the most likely outcome will be more foreign takeovers of U.S. companies. No anti-inversion legislation will block this route for garnering the large tax savings that U.S. companies are now seeking.”

    -Michael Graetz, tax law professor at Columbia Law School

    “In effect, the proposed legislation could be thought of as an unintended subsidy for foreign companies to buy up U.S. competitors through the tax savings they could achieve. While the proposed change would be successful in stopping mergers such as Abbvie/Shire, where the Shire shareholders would only own approximately 25 percent of the combined company, it potentially could actually encourage deals like AstraZeneca/Pfizer, which are much closer in size.”

    – Adam Rosenzweig, Tax law professor at Washington University in St. Louis

    I’m sure the anon/Michael/Fabian set pooh-poohed my suggestions that anti-inversion legislation would cause US MNCs to lose market cap and make US companies more attractive to foreign acquirers. So how did WAG do after it said no to inversion?

  27. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [20] Eddie

    Putting aside the indirect, collateral effect of consumption, I’d love to hear how many people Comrade anon has employed.

    Note to anon: patronizing businesses for your personal consumption doesn’t count.

  28. Michael says:

    The reason it fell, the investors who bet that they would do the inversion were wrong and lost the bet. They built up the price with the assumption that the inversion would go through.

    “I’m sure the anon/Michael/Fabian set pooh-poohed my suggestions that anti-inversion legislation would cause US MNCs to lose market cap and make US companies more attractive to foreign acquirers. So how did WAG do after it said no to inversion?”

  29. jj says:

    You are welcome.

    Fast Eddie says:

    August 7, 2014 at 8:36 am

    G0d bless the rich on this beautiful morning! Without them, a majority of us here wouldn’t be able to enjoy paid vacations, perks, top benefits, a bonus and top pay as a reward for those that do instead of those that take.

  30. Michael says:

    27- Nom, stop supporting inversions. They are wrong.

    Large tax savings that these companies are seeking….aka they don’t want to pay any taxes, but want the benefits that taxes provide like the infrastructure to do business. Tell them to come up with a better business plan than one that seeks to profit from ripping off the taxpayer. Every dollar a corporation avoids in paying taxes is another dollar pushed onto the workers of America.

    It’s pathetic that they must find tax gimmicks to raise profit at a time when corporations are paying the smallest %age of taxes in history.

    “Make no mistake: Such proposals would do nothing to make the U.S. a more favorable place to locate multinational headquarters or investments. If they succeed—which is unlikely, given the creativity of tax planners and the potential large tax savings at stake—the most likely outcome will be more foreign takeovers of U.S. companies. No anti-inversion legislation will block this route for garnering the large tax savings that U.S. companies are now seeking.”

  31. Michael says:

    Classic!!!!! Lmao!!!

    I would love to see how many foreign jobs were created by American corporations as compared to the creation of American jobs. Anyone find this data?

    Essex says:
    August 7, 2014 at 9:12 am
    28.

    http://www.laprogressive.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/job-creator.gif

  32. Essex says:

    19. i like dat book.

  33. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [32] Michael

    I am going to break my rule about replying to nonsensical comments just for this. First, where do you find that I “support” inversions? Poking holes in a particular argument does not imply support for the counterargument. Second, inversions are a symptom of a larger problem. My point, and the point of these law professors, who are well-regarded experts in their field, is that dealing with the symptoms will not cure the disease.

  34. Ragnar says:

    1987 Condo,
    Kissimmee, FL? $50k 3/3 townhouses?
    Even back in my day Kissimmee was pretty yucky, and I wonder if it’s become worse, but it’s close enough to Disney that there should always be someone willing to rent to. Seems like that would be a high yielding investment for someone with the stomach to deal with rent collection and repairs.

    What I find amazing is that homes in Celebration, FL have 5000 square foot homes on 10,000 square foot lots selling for around $1mn, just a couple miles away.

  35. anon (the good one) says:

    @AP: MORE: Weekly jobless claims in U.S. remain at relatively low levels that point toward stronger economic growth

  36. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    Apologies if posted before.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/7/24/5931565/map-the-happiest-places-in-america?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=mattyglesias&utm_content=thursday

    When I first saw this, my immediate thought was that “anon is gonna interpret this as conservatives are too stupid to know that they should b unhappy.”

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [31] Essex

    And your point is?

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [37] anon

    Who built that?

  39. Phoenix says:

    20 Eddie
    I earn my vacations, there aren’t many perks, don’t get top bennies, only had one bonus instead of a raise one year. Pay is average.
    I like what I do. I’m in the trenches. In a career that ranks highest in honesty/ethics in many polls. God bless the people I work with, rich or poor. I don’t care what they get paid, at least they are helping others rather than trying to make a profit on some Chinese made crap that will be out on the curb in 6 months….
    JJ, you are the exception- Thank God for rich guy JJ and his humor :)
    Fast Eddie says:

    August 7, 2014 at 8:36 am

    G0d bless the rich on this beautiful morning! Without them, a majority of us here wouldn’t be able to enjoy paid vacations, perks, top benefits, a bonus and top pay as a reward for those that do instead of those that take.

  40. anon (the good one) says:

    @BloombergNews:
    The global one percent is literally rich beyond measure: http://t.co/X5r8J69Lp1 http://t.co/s7URLsNiRQ

  41. anon (the good one) says:

    Richest Rich
    The richest of America’s rich — the top 0.1 percent with at least $20 million in net wealth — held 23.5 percent of all U.S. wealth in 2012 after adding in estimates of how much was hidden in offshore tax havens, said Zucman, a visiting scholar at the University of California at Berkeley. That compares with his previous estimate of 21.5 percent.

  42. Ragnar says:

    JJ,
    This teacher in Texas will be available once she’s finished doing her time for instigating a 6-way.
    http://www.khou.com/story/news/local/texas/2014/07/21/11796354/

  43. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    [45] Ragnar

    Two takeaways here. First, it isn’t apparent from the article that she was pulling a train. Second, where the hell where these teachers when I was in high school?

  44. hpyglyjfk says:

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  45. Can the senseless retweets be banned?

  46. grim says:

    Clearly public sector salaries are not high enough to keep our state servants from selling cocaine on the side. Oh, he is an accountant for the school board too.

    http://www.nj.com/passaic-county/index.ssf/2014/08/passaic_housing_authority_chairman_faces_cocaine_gun_charges.html

    Passaic City’s Housing Authority chairman, who also works for the school district, was arrested at his home Tuesday on weapons and cocaine distribution charges, police said.

    Darien Allen, 44, faces charges including possession with the intent to distribute cocaine and unlawful possession of a handgun, according to city police. Bail was set at $125,000 and Allen was released Wednesday afternoon.

    Allen was arrested after investigators served a search warrant at his house on Pennington Avenue, said Detective Andrew White. Members of the city’s special investigations unit launched the probe three months ago.

  47. Michael says:

    What was nonsensical in my post?

    Ok, if it will not cure the disease, what will? What are we supposed to just sit back and wait till every corporation is hiding their profits offshore? Then at that point, the govt won’t be able to take it away because every business will lobby that if they take it away, they won’t be able to conduct business, therefore they will have to cut jobs or go bankrupt. That’s exactly how these corporations will play this card. In the end, the regular worker will take the hit by paying more in taxes.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
    August 7, 2014 at 9:34 am
    [32] Michael

    I am going to break my rule about replying to nonsensical comments just for this. First, where do you find that I “support” inversions? Poking holes in a particular argument does not imply support for the counterargument. Second, inversions are a symptom of a larger problem. My point, and the point of these law professors, who are well-regarded experts in their field, is that dealing with the symptoms will not cure the disease.

  48. Michael says:

    When big corps stop paying the tax bill, guess who makes up for it? Here is a prime example.

    Phoenix says:
    August 7, 2014 at 10:12 am
    Atlantic City OKs 29 percent property tax hike.

    http://www.nj.com/atlantic/index.ssf/2014/08/atlantic_city_oks_29_percent_tax_hike.html#incart_m-rpt-1

  49. AC = Paterson-at-the-Beach

  50. Anybody seen ChiFi lately?

    “Considering all central bank money is created out of thin air, without actual collateral (unlike money created by commercial banks) and just has the backing of the (diluted) “full faith and credit” of the issuer, the only real use for such money is to be “embezzled” either legally – by banks where it ends up as reserves and is then used to push risk assets higher and make the merely uber richer uberest rich… or illegally. It is the latter shortcut that numerous employees of the central bank of Albania decided to pursue when the central bank discovered that around 713 million lek, or $6.7 million, in cash had been stolen two weeks ago.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-07/albania-central-bank-employees-steal-7-million-cash

  51. How many lek does it take to buy one healthy Albanian yak?

  52. Ragnar says:

    The laser banana going in and out of Oblamer’s mouth may be homophobic as well as racist. They must be really intimidated by the pen and phone he wields.

  53. Essex says:

    I am groot.

  54. Libturd at home says:

    Anon for president.

  55. Bystander says:

    Sure, the “25%” recovery happened in Nevada trailer parks that lost 50% of their value. The fact is that most NYC suburbs have not seen recovery. In CT, I have a plethora of homes priced at 2002 levels with no takers. Market is dead and has been all year. Same homes just sitting for 4 -5 mos. Sellers won’t go lower bc they have no equity. Guy that I pulled offer from is looking at his second winter with house on market. Housing is not cheap. Millenials see the game now. Rates will rise and price drop will anchor them. Market needs pawns to bail Gen X muppets who bought at peak. They need move up buyers so banks and town get all those fees. Media tries buzz tactics like “inflation” and “wage growth”

  56. Essex says:

    61. i need two things. a strong market through 2016 (ideally). and some sucker to buy my place.

  57. grim says:

    The fact is that most NYC suburbs have not seen recovery.

    They have, some better than others, and some price ranges have recovered more than others, but not to the extent that has been seen in other regions. Many regions appear to be pushing the limits of being called a bubble again.

    Perhaps the reason why is this blog? Perhaps we’ve reached enough of the NJ populous to convince them otherwise? During the burst of the bubble we were regularly logging more than 10,000 unique readers a week.

    Anyhow, from the recent case shiller tiered price indexes (seasonally adjusted).

    Low Tier (Below $275k) – Up 10.13% from “bottom”
    Mid Tier ($275k-445k) – Up 9.32% from “bottom”
    High Tier ($445k Up) – Up 8.51% from “bottom”
    Aggregate – Up 8.3% from “bottom”

    Pricing is on-par with about 2004 levels, anything priced at 2002 levels that had been maintained should be a deal if you believe the case shiller numbers.

    Market is dead and has been all year. Same homes just sitting for 4 -5 mos.

    Market not quite dead out here, there is activity. Sure homes are sitting for 4-5 months, but there was plenty of that during the end of the bubble too. The market it still moving, in some cases briskly, it is nowhere near “zero”.

    Days on market is down year over year, homes are technically selling faster, now that’s likely more due to the limited inventory than buyer demand, but it’s a fact. A year ago we were around 8-9 months inventory, we’re now around 7-8.

    For example, Bergen County DOM (June YTD) SFH
    2012 – 83
    2013 – 76
    2014 – 62

    For example, Bergen County Inventory (June YTD) SFH
    2012 – 7117
    2013 – 6205
    2014 – 5742

    Millenials see the game now.

    I believe everyone has got “millenials” wrong.

    Market needs pawns to bail Gen X muppets who bought at peak.

    No it doesn’t, plenty have been shaken out through short sales and foreclosures, with still more to come. How much of the market do you think the bubble buyers realistically represent? 25% 50% 75%? What’s the number?

  58. anon (the good one) says:

    and W is now making portraits of his cats

    @ianbremmer:
    The horrible irony: there’s more reason to remove ISIS from Iraq than there was to overthrow Saddam Hussein

  59. anon (the good one) says:

    not in Fairfield county

    Bystander says:
    August 7, 2014 at 11:35 am

    In CT, I have a plethora of homes priced at 2002 levels with no takers.

  60. grim says:

    A real estate market chock full of cherry inventory at firesale prices is a pipe dream, even Clot will agree.

  61. grim says:

    Unless we are talking about an ebola outbreak in Ridgewood, but even then people would be bitching about blood and bile stains on the hall carpet.

  62. grim says:

    Everything so clear in retrospect, if you’d purchased in NJ during the early 90’s recession, after the bubble had burst, the S&L scandal in full swing, you’d be a genius, sitting pretty.

    By the mid 90s, you’d be called an absolute idiot by your friends and neighbors, on account of real estate not moving at all, and the fact that in order to buy you needed to take out a 10% mortgage. TEN PERCENT!?!

    But by the late 90s it was clear that prices were on an upswing, and it was more than likely you traded that 10 handle for a 6 handle. By 2006 you’d half paid off your house and you traded that 6 handle for a 3 handle 15 year, which you struggled with just paying off outright, because the amount was so piddly.

    Now, 8 years later, you are sitting on only a couple more years to go, so you just pay off to save the money in stamps and checks.

    But in 1991-1992, you’d have been called an absolute idiot for buying.

  63. anon (the good one) says:

    even then Gary won’t be able to afford it

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 12:17 pm
    Unless we are talking about an ebola outbreak in Ridgewood, but even then people would be bitching about blood and bile stains on the hall carpet.

  64. grim says:

    http://njrereport.com/80sbubble.htm

    Read the articles from years 1991 to 1995.

  65. grim says:

    Early-mid 90s were the best time in probably the last 50 years to purchase real estate in NJ, and look at the sentiment, it was shit, nobody wanted anything to do with it.

  66. anon (the good one) says:

    HELMETTA, N.J. — A New Jersey police officer was caught on camera telling a resident that police don’t have to follow the Constitution because President Obama doesn’t, either.

    Special Police Officer Richard Recine, of the Borough of Helmetta Police Department, is now the subject of an internal affairs investigation after the video was posted online and was seen by Police Director Robert Manney, who called the comments an “embarrassment.”

    In the video, taken Monday at the borough municipal building, resident Steve Wronko gets into a verbal confrontation with Recine, who was called to the building because Wronko was seen taking pictures inside.

    “Because if he doesn’t follow the Constitution we don’t have to.”
    Special Police Officer Richard Recine
    After Wronko insists he has a constitutional right to record in a public place, Recine responds.

    “Obama has decimated the friggin’ constitution, so I don’t give a damn,” said Recine, who is a retired Franklin, N.J., police officer. “Because if he doesn’t follow the Constitution we don’t have to.”
    Wronko then turns to the person recording the camera to make sure that was recorded. Recine repeats himself.

    “Our president has decimated the constitution, then we don’t have to.”

    On Wednesday, Manney said Recine’s words were “uncalled for and unprofessional.”
    Manney, who appears in the video but only after Recine had made his comments, said the investigation should be “completed very swiftly” because “the evidence is right there.”

  67. Michael says:

    Thanks for the awesome write up and post with the newspaper headlines.

    Does fast Eddie not get it? Now is the time to buy! Why? Because of people like you. They all think real estate is a terrible investment right now. Don’t want anything to do with it. Well, that’s when you buy. Which has been the last couple of years. When everyone and their mother start promoting real estate you sell. It’s really not that complicated. I’m glad people have a herd like mentality, it’s easy to read.

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 12:31 pm
    Early-mid 90s were the best time in probably the last 50 years to purchase real estate in NJ, and look at the sentiment, it was shit, nobody wanted anything to do with it.

  68. grim says:

    Just to prove what an idiot you would have been, I’m going to post historical Wyckoff sales from 1991, please do not blow up my server, this file is large:

    http://njrereport.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Wyckoff_RES_1991.pdf

    Median household income in NJ in 1991 would have been around $50,000.

    Many of these homes were 7-10x median income at the time. Mortgage rates were 10%. We were in the midst of a serious recession. The USSR had entirely collapsed as a country.

    You would have been called an idiot every single day from 1991-1997 or so, you might have even regretted the decision to buy the house in Wyckoff, probably for YEARS at a time. Even the the early 1990s, Wyckoff was VERY EXPENSIVE, put in context with the fiscal and economic environment at that time, these houses were still VERY EXPENSIVE. The bubble had burst and real estate was HATED by many. Every night on the news there were S&L prosecutions.

    Today? You’d be brilliant.

  69. Essex says:

    You gotta sell before you buy. Maybe that’s the deal with Eddie.
    Or — maybe he is simply incapable of making a buy decision.

  70. Essex says:

    I love to “look” — Zillow has been a blessing.
    But whenever I see something on the market more than 45 days I see an opportunity. Eddie probably sees a big red flag. Well, if no one else snatched it up immediately then why would i want it? Granted, you don’t know much until you do an actual visit to a property. That we’ll start doing in december….I figure December will be the best time to look.

  71. Essex says:

    Meanwhile in Texas:

    GEORGETOWN, Texas (AP) — A 19-year-old Texas man who could face years in prison for making brownies laced with marijuana and hash oil said Wednesday he remains scared despite new evidence that his attorney believes should reduce the charges.

    A handful of pot legalization supporters welcomed Jacob Lavoro as he entered a Williamson County courthouse near Austin for the second time since his April arrest. He is accused of selling the brownies for $25 and is facing felony charges that carry stiff penalties, ranging from five years to life in prison.

    Jack Holmes, Lavoro’s attorney, told reporters after a brief hearing that new lab results show there was only 2.5 grams of marijuana’s psychoactive ingredient, THC, in the brownies. Authorities have also said there was a separate jar that had 145 grams of hash oil.

    In Colorado, where recreational marijuana is now legal, edible products are required to be easily divided into servings of 10 milligrams of THC — about the amount in a medium-sized joint.

    Holmes said the test results don’t justify tough punishments but was skeptical of getting a break. Although neighboring Austin is a liberal haven in deeply conservative Texas, Williamson County has a long reputation of law and order, which came under national scrutiny in 2011 after an innocent man was freed after serving 25 years in prison.

    “I’m scared. Very scared,” Lavoro said. “I’m 19 years old and still have a whole life ahead of me. Take that into account.”

    First District Attorney Mark Brunner said Holmes was “grandstanding” and that prosecutors are not trying to lock up Lavoro for the rest of his life. His office has offered Lavaro a plea deal to a lesser felony charge that would include no jail time if he stayed out of trouble.

    Holmes said they won’t take the offer because they fear prosecutors would be overzealous if Lavaro missed so much as a mandatory meeting. Brunner said the county isn’t trying to make some statement on the war on drugs and defendants take risks when they choose a trial over plea bargains.

    “If this was just some college kid experimenting in his friend’s Easy-Bake Oven, with a reefer’s worth of pot and a bunch of brownies, that’d be different,” Brunner said. “This man was trying to run a business, allegedly.”

    Hash oil is a controlled substance that carries much harsher state penalties than marijuana. The oil has higher concentrations of THC. It’s in a penalty group with amphetamines and ecstasy.

    Holmes said he expects Lavoro to be formally indicted later this month. State District Judge Stacey Mathews set a key September hearing, when Holmes said he will argue that the charges should be dropped altogether over whether the search of Lavoro’s apartment was lawful.

  72. painhrtz - whatever says:

    grim I would ave sold that Wyckoff house in 2005 and vacated the area

  73. painhrtz - whatever says:

    then again knowing how bad I was with money at the time (95-2003) I probably would have been Heloc’d to my eyeballs and taken a loss

  74. Michael says:

    All fast Eddie has to do is apply logic.

    Of course the best time to buy is when nobody wants it. You get the best price based on the supply and demand principle. That’s why idiots end up looking like geniuses in time. When everyone says it’s bad to buy real estate or that it’s better to rent, my brain equates that to a green light on buying, which I did to my maximum capability. You can’t get good prices when there is demand. As simple as that. If you think real estate will never go up again, you are an idiot.

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 12:31 pm
    Early-mid 90s were the best time in probably the last 50 years to purchase real estate in NJ, and look at the sentiment, it was shit, nobody wanted anything to do with it.

  75. Essex says:

    79. If we’d bought in 95 like people were telling me too, we’d have settled in Chicago.
    And that would have probably been a major mistake. Although I had a friend who bought and sold in that city during that time and made bank. Oh well.

  76. Bystander says:

    I never said market activity is zero. It is has absolutely flatlined since last year and turning negative in terms of activity vs. available inventory. Simply put, there are lots more homes sitting on market than last year. We were told market would be gangbusters this year. It has not happened. 4-6 mos. on market with no price reductions? That is normal? I thought one month w/o offer means pricing issue? These are not real sellers from my standpoint. Stalemate right now.

    Foreclosures? Short sales? Where? Perhaps trickle but judicial states have capped it so it has no impact on market. They want large swaths of millenials paying full price. Govt. has squashed any deals for public.

    By me, I would say 50% on inventory are bubble buyers that purchased bw ’02-’08.

  77. grim says:

    By me, I would say 50% on inventory are bubble buyers that purchased bw ’02-’08.

    Way off

  78. Bystander says:

    #65 Anon,

    Fairfield County is more than Greenwich, Darien and Westport. Go take a look at Redding and Ridgefield and get back to me. Lots of 2002 pricing.

  79. grim says:

    Since I had Wyckoff open, I ran through the tax records. Of the 72 properties listed for sale.

    16.7% Post Bubble – 2010 and later
    24.2% Bubble – 2003-2009
    59.1% Pre Bubble – 2002 and earlier

  80. Bystander says:

    Grim,

    That is from my experience looking in Fairfield in 500k range. Lots of people looking to move up. Overall, let me guess – 15%?

  81. jj says:

    Fed Survey Finds 4 in 10 Americans in Financial Stress in 2013
    Bloomberg News

    AUG 7, 2014 12:59pm ET
    . Almost four in 10 Americans were suffering financial stress in September 2013 and more than a third said they were worse off than they were five years earlier, a Federal Reserve report on U.S. household finances showed.

  82. jj says:

    I dont think folks undewater often have financial issues I just think they are irrational.

    You go to dealership and buy a 40K car brand new, five years later you need to sell and find it is only worth 20K. Maybe you spend a few days trying to sell them take your 20K and move on.

    You buy some stock at 50 a share and want to sell and it is 45 a share, guess what you sell it and take a loss.

    But real estate some folks even rich folks dont like to take a loss and realtors will accept the overpriced listing hoping to change sellers minds and the sellers mind is irrational.

  83. anon (the good one) says:

    Redding is not commute distance to Manhattan. You may as well include New Haven too.

    There’s nothing in the $500k 1 hr from Grand Central

    Bystander says:
    August 7, 2014 at 1:40 pm
    #65 Anon,

    Fairfield County is more than Greenwich, Darien and Westport. Go take a look at Redding and Ridgefield and get back to me. Lots of 2002 pricing.

  84. Bystander says:

    #71,

    So Grim and Mike..we get that it was a good idea buying right before the greatest technological advancement since the industrial revolution. Now tell me what will make my 500k home worth 1.5 million by 2040. Let me guess..inflation!

  85. grim says:

    Technically, if you waited to “right before” you would have paid an additional 25% over purchasing in 1991. Also, in 1991, you would have had no idea of the coming internet boom, so you wouldn’t have been able to factor that into your purchasing decision.

    NY Metro home prices are sitting at a touch over doubling since 1990, 25 years, so I’m not sure I’d bank on $1.5 million by 2040. We’re sitting under the 3% trendline from the mid 1980s. Extrapolate that out and you’d be at a bit over a million in 25 years.

  86. Michael says:

    You better believe it!! Houses never really gain true value, it’s all inflation.

    Bystander says:
    August 7, 2014 at 1:58 pm
    #71,

    So Grim and Mike..we get that it was a good idea buying right before the greatest technological advancement since the industrial revolution. Now tell me what will make my 500k home worth 1.5 million by 2040. Let me guess..inflation!

  87. Michael says:

    92- money is made (true value gains) on the swings of the cycle. Buying at the right time and selling at the right time. Meaning winners and losers.

  88. grim says:

    I do know that if you did nothing but sit on dollars between 1990 and today, you are probably pretty miserable. It’s clear that holding dollars has been, and will continue to be, a losing proposition.

    Why is it that you scoff at the prospect of continued inflation eroding the value of the dollar? You can’t honestly believe that we’re due for some sort of Deflation Jubilee where the fiscally responsible with 0% interest passbook savings accounts chock full to the FDIC limit will be rewarded by being elevated, no transcended, to be the new rich, while anyone with even an iota of debt are chained into debt slavery, to you. Will we come to them, begging, with gifts of hard assets, pennies on the dollar. Ridgewood mansions for anyone with $20k left to spare.

    C’mon, you know we’re going to be f*cked raw, over and over and over. The prices of houses will rise, but not because we’re wealthier, but because the US standard of living will continue to fall, incomes will drop, and property will rise, day by day the dollar will become more worthless.

  89. grim says:

    The middle class will continue to be eviscerated, more will be pushed to renting, hard assets will be hoarded by the wealthy, the new generations will be rent slaves for everything, slowly bled dry from every angle. Even the democrats now, have seen fit to f*ck us all over.

  90. grim says:

    Or maybe in 25 years the sun comes up the same and we’ll still be bitching about how cheap houses were 25 years ago, and how there aren’t any good jobs left, and how the politicians are all now corrupt, and that kids are paying too much for their doodads, and that taxes are too damn high.

  91. Michael says:

    Well said!!! Fast Eddie is it sinking in yet? Your prayers of deflation are not coming any time soon.

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 2:25 pm
    I do know that if you did nothing but sit on dollars between 1990 and today, you are probably pretty miserable. It’s clear that holding dollars has been, and will continue to be, a losing proposition.

    Why is it that you scoff at the prospect of continued inflation eroding the value of the dollar? You can’t honestly believe that we’re due for some sort of Deflation Jubilee where the fiscally responsible with 0% interest passbook savings accounts chock full to the FDIC limit will be rewarded by being elevated, no transcended, to be the new rich, while anyone with even an iota of debt are chained into debt slavery, to you. Will we come to them, begging, with gifts of hard assets, pennies on the dollar. Ridgewood mansions for anyone with $20k left to spare.

    C’mon, you know we’re going to be f*cked raw, over and over and over. The prices of houses will rise, but not because we’re wealthier, but because the US standard of living will continue to fall, incomes will drop, and property will rise, day by day the dollar will become more worthless.

  92. jj says:

    The 10-year Treasury yield fell to an intraday low of 2.431%, per Tradeweb data, and it currently sits at 2.435%, with the note’s price up 11/32 on the day. The 30-year bond is up 19/32 to yield 3.243%. If the 10-year yield holds at its current level through the end of the day, it would mark its lowest closing level this year.

  93. Ragnar says:

    4 in 10 feel financial distress? Imagine how much coverage this would get if a Republican were president. Take another look at the consumer confidence index. 5 years beyond recession, it’s still sitting at typical recession levels.
    Those of us in the tri-state area are benefitting from the Federal reserve’s unprecedented money manipulation. People further away from that hydrant are still feeling left high and dry.
    We have some slacker president who six years in office takes virtually no responsibility for anything, and blames everything on “Washington politics” as if he’s never spent time there doing that. Not that his idea of “progress” is actually helpful, e.g. Oblamercare.

  94. Bystander says:

    #94-96,

    You are completely spot on. I believe it is the exact scenario that is coming. But, the biggest x-factor is what an inflationary environment looks like in non-manufacturing society? If you truly beli

  95. jj says:

    Any Old Jew will tell you go Long. Back in my Banking days they used to come in and do the 1,2,3,4,5 year CD roll. Laddering to speak. But a lot just rolled ten years treasuries and mixed in 30 year NY Munis callable at ten.

    They were risk advese but the did not leave money sitting checking or a passbook for 15 years as you compare cash in 1999 to RE in 1999.

    If you came to my desk in one million in 1999 and said you were very risk adverse I mostly like would have done 100K, 1 year CD, 100K 2 years CD, 100k 3 year CD, 100K 4 year CD and 100K five year CD, all under differnt types of names so they all get FDIC insurance. Throw in a 250K Treasury ten year treasury and a 30 year NYS Muni Callable at ten. Then set up CDS as they mature to automatically get redone as a five year CD. And as treasuries mature new ten year treasuries and as 30 year munis callable in ten mature new 30 year munis callable in ten.

    Guess what it would be a lot of money. And most likely in 2010 I would have told them to stop rolling the CDs and done some 5-10 years MBS, Investment grade bonds and step up CDs and I bonds.

    I managed my mothers bond/cd/treasury ‘fortune’ of 100K from 1989 to 2002 and guess what it threw off a heck of an income stream. And when she died and we started selling in 2003 the bonds and stuff were all above par.

    Suprisingly my Mom thought riskys was IBM and Nabisco bonds maturing in 5-7 years with a 8 percent coupon at par. I told her Mom if you think in the next five year folks will stop eating orioles and using computers I will sell right now and put you in a 5% cd. Quickly she realized the 10K IBM bond paid 300 bucks extra a year over next five years and she said no. Key is with old folks keep everything as safe as possible and when you do buy bonds keep it names they know at 3-7 years in a ladder.

    My Mom average 8-9 percent interest over the 14 year period without a single default.

  96. Essex says:

    95. one day I’d love simplicity, affordability, but we are in the vortex.

    back to Morris Co.. weeeeee

  97. sx (76)-

    The best time to look at houses is during or right after a giant snowstorm or rain.

  98. All scenarios in which folks like you and me are assr@ped repeatedly are the scenarios that will prove accurate.

  99. Bystander says:

    Sorry, I meant to say then if you believe this then why not just buy that $1.5m 2 BD in NYC. Who cares if it was $450k in 2004? Rich will get richer..you seem to say follow inflation but perhaps speculation is all you are achieving. Perhaps it is time to look elsewhere than the US for the American dream. Internet was a complete paradigm shift and only see companies being less committed to their labor, not more. Inflation may not lift all boats. Truly believe you need to be more careful today than during bubble. Flexiblity truly might be greedom in future yeats. That is my struggle.

  100. Bystander says:

    Oops…freedom in future years.

  101. anon (the good one) says:

    indeed

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 2:35 pm
    The middle class will continue to be eviscerated, more will be pushed to renting, hard assets will be hoarded by the wealthy, the new generations will be rent slaves for everything, slowly bled dry from every angle. Even the democrats now, have seen fit to f*ck us all over.

  102. jj says:

    Houses are like rotary phones and beepers. Folks dont really need them.

    For instance my nephew who is like 27 is indicative of todays generation. Graduated college got a job at a company that has offices all over, moved back home. Still has not owned a car, mooched off parents while home in summer from college. Now he ask for a job transfer to Denver at work and he knows a few other folks out there. They arse all going in on renting a house, five folks one house. No mention of every owning a house, ever owning a car, ever getting married. In fact his smartphone is the free one you get with a two year agreement. Honestly I dont think he owns a single think worth over one hundred bucks. His older sister bought a condo when she got married did not want work of a house or tie up money and younger brother just turned 21 is mooching at home.

    25 years ago those three kids would be buying houses or cars. Today not so much.

    My little beach condo suprisingly the average income of folks I rented to was around 600K to one million bucks a year, Guess what they dont want to own a beach place if they can airbnb or vrbo etc. My winter tenant is coming back this year. Guess what he is a lot richer than me. Does not headache of having a second place. Folks are lazy.

    But lazy folks cause less demand for cars and houses. Back in my day a 30 year old man who did not own his own place and own his car was considered a loser. Today the ladies dont care.

    I recall my friend who was a girl around 33 started a mad rush to find a husband or boyfriend at least. Said all I need to do is see a picture and find out the answer to these three questions. 1) straight or gay, 2) rent or own 3) lease or own.

    She avoided like plague guys who rented expensive apts and leased expensive cars as she knew it would be a nightmare to marry someone that broke who spends that much. Today girls dont care.

  103. Bystander says:

    Grim #91,

    Only doubling since 1990? I think Fast and I could pull 100s of homes that sold for 200k in ’91, 400k in ’02, 600k in ’06 and now asking 600k or more. None with additions either.

  104. joyce says:

    Gotta love how Passion Fruit can read an article or comment and draw the opposite conclusion

  105. joyce says:

    Passion Fruit asks how can wages possibly stay low when consumables and other staples are rising in price… well, go back 15 years in time, relive your life and see for yourself.

  106. Essex says:

    104. absolutely.

  107. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [99];

    Great war story. What does one do today, with 0.01% savings rate — how do you propose to ladder a convex yield curve?

  108. Juice Box says:

    Everyone of my weekends in August is lined up with kids birthday parties. I may well sign myself up for a Promises Rehab when this month is over.

  109. Juice Box says:

    When does humanitarian aid drops turn into laser guided bombs?

  110. Juice Box says:

    Flight Ban over Russia? If I were living in the EU right now I would be cutting up the furniture for kindling and chopping down all the local trees. It is going to be a cold winter if this keeps up.

  111. chicagofinance says:

    damn that is harsh…..

    grim says:
    August 7, 2014 at 2:25 pm
    C’mon, you know we’re going to be f*cked raw, over and over and over.

  112. chicagofinance says:

    The Proper Care and Feeding of Your Spoiled 23-Year-Old

    Rich people have enough money to solve almost all their problems but one: children who grow up to be entitled, materialistic and unhappy slackers.

    Wealth advisers to the rich see this all the time, says Coventry Edwards-Pitt, who helps clients manage their affairs at Ballentine Partners, a wealth advisory firm outside Boston. Often, children of rich parents can’t seem to strike out on their own, she says. They start doomed businesses and give up on one job after another, all while draining Mom and Dad’s bank account (or their own trust fund) into their 30s and beyond. It’s a phenomenon many parents and tax advisers do a lot to enable, albeit unintentionally, Edwards-Pitt argues in a new book, “Raised Healthy, Wealthy and Wise.”

    Most parents want their kids to become successful, self-sufficient adults. But smart tax planning can sabotage good parenting. To avoid the estate tax, the wealthy are told they can and should give their children $14,000, or $28,000 per couple, each year, which they’re allowed to do tax-free. That’s hardly enough to retire on, but it’s a cushion most people don’t have. Young wealthy adults may go from job to job as they seek their “passion” without putting in the hard work to actually get anywhere.

    It’s Edwards-Pitt’s job as an adviser to warn clients when they’re spoiling their kids. Parents need to say “no” more often, she says. The goal isn’t to protect their own fortunes but to encourage children to develop independence. “Parents think that by not handing over money, they’re depriving their kid,” she says. “It’s actually just the opposite.” As Warren Buffett put it in an oft-quoted 1986 Fortune interview, giving heirs “a lifetime supply of food stamps just because they came out of the right womb” can be a “harmful” and “antisocial act.”

    Opening checkbooks every time their kids face adversity undermines children’s sense of accomplishment, says Edwards-Pitt. If Dad funds all of his daughter’s business start-up costs, she’ll inevitably feel it’s more his project than hers and won’t learn how to court investors or stick to a strict budget.

    For her book, Edwards-Pitt interviewed two dozen rich kids who found ways to become successful in their own right. Their parents helped, but there were usually limits. When a videographer started his business, his parents and grandfather limited their contribution to 25 percent of the capital. An art gallery owner in his late 30s spent 10 years receiving a small monthly check from his parents to cover living expenses, but the amount never increased.

    The result of too much coddling can be a mix of guilt and resentment. Edwards-Pitt’s advice: For at least a while, kids have to get far enough away, emotionally and physically, from their parents.

    To do that, one successful entrepreneur who was born rich emigrated from India to the U.S. A TV producer from a well-known New York family took a year off from Yale University to travel to Australia and work on a cattle ranch, and then a Pacific trawler. “For the first time ever, he met people who had never heard of Yale or of his family’s name,” Edwards-Pitt says. Moves like that let children build an identity outside a moneyed cocoon, an achievement that’s priceless.

  113. Juice Box says:

    re # 119 – “Opening checkbooks every time their kids face adversity”

    The extreme of that is Corzine’s kid who in March was found dead in a hotel room in Mexico City. He had been living in a sunny $2.8 million beachfront home in Malibu mommy bought for him and his career of choice was drug counselor.

  114. Phoenix says:

    From Morris County..

    ttp://www.nj.com/morris/index.ssf/2014/08/sources_ex-morris_political_figure_joan_bramhall_one_of_two_dead_in_denville_home.html#incart_m-rpt-1

  115. Michael says:

    These are fl property taxes. I think it shows something. Anywhere you go, you will pay high property taxes for high valued properties/areas. The reason most of America has low property taxes is due to the fact that their land is pretty much worthless.

    Tax History
    Year Property taxes Tax assessment
    Fewer
    2013 $21,676 $1,098,075
    2012 $20,823 $998,250
    2011 $17,646 $907,500
    2010 $16,736 $825,000
    2009 $17,479 $900,000
    2008 $17,482 $987,000
    2007 $21,680 $1,225,000
    2006 $23,553 $1,225,000
    2005 $22,016 $1,100,000
    2004 $19,594 $965,000

    11 Ocean Pl, Highland Beach FL 33487
    Tax History
    Year Property taxes Tax assessment
    Fewer
    2013 $81,460 $4,146,268
    2012 $67,620 $3,351,182
    2011 $58,241 $3,046,529
    2010 $70,182 $3,518,520
    2009 $75,329 $3,892,908
    2008 $74,515 $4,292,388
    2007 $74,942 $4,295,292
    2006 $85,587 $4,576,445
    2005 $81,461 $4,208,959
    2004 $82,523 $4,178,306

  116. Michael says:

    122- these taxes come with crappy schools unlike jersey.

  117. I call one dead Corzine a good start.

  118. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:
  119. Comrade Nom Deplume, a.k.a. Captain Justice says:

    New Jersey claims another Number One spot

    http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/06/travel/us-unfriendliest-friendliest-cities/index.html?hpt=hp_c3

    The unfriendly list has one, not entirely surprising, surprise. Or, as I read it, I thought Which one of these is not like the others?

  120. plume, methinks that radio silence will ensue from the money launderer.

  121. Newark says go fcuk your mother.

    And put a cap in her just to make sure.

  122. looky says:

    Technical writing – I want to write technical articles but what are copyright laws?

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