Mildly disappointing?

From Bloomberg:

Home-Sales Winning Streak Ends, First-Time Buyers Go Missing 

A three-year winning streak for sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. ended in 2014 as some investors stepped out of the market and first-time buyers failed to fill the void.

Purchases totaled 4.93 million last year, down 3.1 percent from the 5.09 million houses sold in 2013, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Friday in Washington.

The share of American homebuyers making their first purchase dropped in 2014 to its lowest level in almost three decades, according to the Realtors group. At the same time, employment gains, growing consumer confidence, mortgage rates at historically low levels and government efforts to lower purchasing costs probably will help bolster demand in 2015.

“Demand has been pretty sideways,” said Jay Feldman, an economist at Credit Suisse in New York. “There are various positives and I don’t see any big negatives for housing. The improving labor market and low mortgage rates will support the housing recovery.”

Purchases climbed a less-than-forecast 2.4 percent in December from the prior month to a 5.04 million annual rate, the report showed.

The median forecast of 76 economists in a Bloomberg survey called for sales of previously owned homes to rise to a 5.08 million pace in December. Estimates ranged from 4.93 million to 5.25 million. The November reading was revised down to 4.92 million from a previously reported 4.93 million.

First-time buyers accounted for 29 percent of all purchases in December, down from 31 percent a month earlier, the report showed. A separate survey from the group showed they made up 33 percent for all of 2014, the fewest since 1987.

“First-time buyers are still missing in action,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said at a news conference today as the figures were released. The market in 2014 was “mildly disappointing.”

Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2015 should be a better year.”

A lack of supply and rising prices are probably among reasons younger and first-time buyers have yet to enter the market. Those issues are also driving out investors, who led the early stages of the recovery.

The median price of an existing home advanced 6 percent in December from the same period a year earlier, to $209,500, the Realtors’ report showed. In 2014, it was the highest in seven years.

The number of previously owned homes on the market fell to 1.85 million, the second-smallest reading for any December since 1999.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

48 Responses to Mildly disappointing?

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Fast Eddie says:

    Dead in the water. At $799,000, it will rot. You can walk to Pearl River. Next.

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1500384&openhouse=true&dayssince=15&countysearch=false

  3. Fast Eddie says:

    “First-time buyers are still missing in action,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said at a news conference today as the figures were released. The market in 2014 was “mildly disappointing.”

    That’s with rock bottom interest rates. What next, Larry?

    Is it “chief economist” or ” thief economist?” Either way, a cartoon muppet standing in the corner, talking to the wall as he wets himself.

  4. Fast Eddie says:

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2015 should be a better year.”

    That’s gold Larry! Gold!

  5. Fast Eddie says:

    “2015 should be a better year.”

    “It’s contained to sub prime!”

    “Prices never go down here!”

    “You could always refinance! Besides, you’ll be making more money in a few years”

    “This area is bleeding wealth, the price is warranted!”

  6. grim says:

    Holy crap, 2 feet of snow for North Jersey tomorrow through wednesday?

  7. Liquor Luge says:

    Vigoda > Al Franklin

  8. Liquor Luge says:

    Snow days are great days to sit around a trash barrel fire, savoring the fine, subtle flavors of New Jersey-made whiskey.

  9. Liquor Luge says:

    I got a million more where that came from, grim. ;)

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Meat,

    I’d like to conduct a blind taste test of toilet wine using a few select posters on this blog.

  11. Liquor Luge says:

    Another bankster “suicide”…

    “Following the deaths of 36 bankers last year, 2015 has got off to an inauspicious start with the reported suicide of Chris Van Eeghen – the 4th ABN Amro banker suicide in the last few years. As Quotenet reports, the death of Van Eghen – the head of ABN’s corporate finance and capital markets -“startled” friends and colleagues as the 42-year-old “had a great reputation” at work, came from an “illustrious family,” and enjoyed national fame briefly as the boyfriend of a famous actress/model. As one colleague noted, “he was always cheerful, good mood, and apparently he had everything your heart desired. He never sat in the pit, never was down, so I was extremely surprised. I can not understand.” Most believe that the suicide is not related to his work at the bank, but a former colleague had noticed that on his Facebook recently changed its job title to “former.” Chris leaves behind a son – who had recently been cleared of cancer.”

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-24/cheerful-dutch-financier-becomes-4th-abn-amro-banker-suicide

  12. Grim says:

    Ol’ Trash Barrel sounds romantic. On the banks of the mighty Passaic?

  13. Fast Eddie says:

    Sold for $1,220,000 back in 2003; currently asking $925,000. Another architectural gem:

    http://www.njmls.com/listings/index.cfm?action=dsp.info&mlsnum=1442826&dayssince=&countysearch=false

  14. Pete says:

    Heh, just saw snow forecast. Wife was already on her way to supermarket. Just texts me there are no spots and no carts.

  15. Liquor Luge says:

    Gary (13)-

    Another decade, and that house will be more overrun with vegetation than Angkor Wat.

  16. Liquor Luge says:

    Grim, call your clear stuff Passaic Lightning.

  17. Comrade Nom Deplume, in moderation says:

    Northern Jersey supposed to get whacked (snow wise that is). Here, 1-3 inches predicted. Hopefully the Poconos are part of the swath to get dumped.

    Should be easy for my tractor with its new snowplow blade but after the 2 inches of slush I cleared Saturday, I determined I definitely need chains. Amazon delivers on Tuesday.

  18. dentss Dunnian says:

    So is this a way out for Christie to solve the pension underfunding for once and for all …..http://nj1015.com/possible-solution-to-cash-strapped-pension-fund-could-hurt-municipalities/

  19. grim says:

    Nom – I got a huge machine, 33″ path, 13hp, electric start – makes quick work of anything. Kid down the block has got a plot on his quad, it’s worthless. Only thing, I don’t have the heated handles.

  20. while singing Frank Stallone songs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FENE2XHzlpg&list=RDFENE2XHzlpg

    Snow days are great days to sit around a trash barrel fire, savoring the fine, subtle flavors of New Jersey-made whiskey.

  21. Look closely at the 4th picture of this house. You might want to zoom in. The listing price history is pretty funny too.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Sands-Point-NY/31077599_zpid/16387_rid/priced_sort/40.874292,-73.659596,40.809684,-73.769975_rect/13_zm/2_p/

  22. grim – link for TSA data in mod. How many firearms confiscated by airport.

  23. grim says:

    unmodded

  24. Bystander says:

    #4,

    Sounds familiar

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2010 should be a better year.”

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2011 should be a better year.”

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2012 should be a better year.”

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2013 should be a better year.”

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2014 should be a better year.”

    Falling interest rates, more jobs and higher levels of confidence indicate “pent-up demand continues to build,” he said. “2015 should be a better year.”

    That place in #2..all for estimated monthly PITI of $4,500 mo. Of course this is no problem as the dual income, $300k earners abound.

  25. Juice Box says:

    No snowblower for me. I survived last year and 8 can use the exercise.

  26. Juice Box says:

    Chi – I was in your neck of the woods today, wife bought an antique to refinish. If you are looking this old farm house will be up for sale soon. Old couple can’t afford taxes and maintenance anymore and are selling everthing in preparation for downsizing..

    It is a candidate for a total remodel for sure.

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3-Forrest-Way-Colts-Neck-NJ-07722/39230501_zpid/

  27. Juice Box says:

    Whole Foods is a madhouse today. Parking lot jammed and lines are long, I just came in for a quick bite of lovely Kale and other assorted rabbit food. The hipsters working here seem to have multipled, few dozen at least working here.

  28. Juice Box says:

    3 ft of snow now. This is getting good….

  29. Grim says:

    Blizzard of historic proportion!

  30. Ben says:

    Whole Foods is a madhouse today. Parking lot jammed and lines are long, I just came in for a quick bite of lovely Kale and other assorted rabbit food. The hipsters working here seem to have multipled, few dozen at least working here.

    My experience is at the Whole Paycheck in Princeton is that the guys working there are for the most part knowledgeable and down to earth. The patrons are total hipsters though. You want hipsters behind the counter, you go to Trader Joes.

    That being said, the Meat and Seafood departments at Whole Foods are amazingly good.

  31. Essex says:

    29. Looks like they have been trying to sell the farmhouse for the past three years.

    “this time will be different, Ethel…you’ll see”

  32. Juice Box says:

    Lines at the gas station!

  33. chicagofinance says:

    Interesting……better location for commuting south and west out of town….as you can see, the town is so big and spread out that one end to the other can be 25 minutes…..

    Juice Box says:
    January 25, 2015 at 2:59 pm
    Chi – I was in your neck of the woods today, wife bought an antique to refinish. If you are looking this old farm house will be up for sale soon. Old couple can’t afford taxes and maintenance anymore and are selling everthing in preparation for downsizing..

    It is a candidate for a total remodel for sure.

  34. chicagofinance says:

    You know that is walking distance to BearsFan……more towards town….

  35. Liquor Luge says:

    expat (22)-

    I will get even with you on the Frank Stallone earworm thing.

  36. Liquor Luge says:

    Whole Foods may be the thing that convinces me that you can indeed polish a turd.

    Of course, you need a gigantic market of hipsters, dying for polished turds.

  37. Liquor Luge says:

    I can make a dinner out of hearty greens and thawed-out A&P chicken gizzards that would make any of you nancy boy girly men forget Whole Foods.

    If you can make it to my front door in the next two days, I’ll serve you some. If, that is, you can make it to my front door.

  38. BearsFan says:

    I’ll check out the house chi/jb tomorrow when I hastily roll out at 6 am to lowes to see if any husky snowblowers are in stock. Lol

  39. Libturd at home says:

    Tomorrow, I test the new Troy Bilt snow blower I got for free from AC. Should be interesting. She’s oiled and gassed.

  40. Comrade Nom Deplume, sea level again says:

    [19] grim,

    My plow attachment works fine. Fairly level parking area with a long, gently sloped drive up from street. Besides, as Lt. Cheapo, I like the much lower cost vs a snowblower, fact it won’t suffer a mechanical breakdown, and I can use it for tasks like spreading mulch, stone, etc. I also like the idea of getting more benefit from the lawn tractor by getting to use it for more things.

  41. Comrade Nom Deplume, sea level again says:

    [40] luge,

    “If you can make it to my front door in the next two days, I’ll serve you some. If, that is, you can make it to my front door.”

    Wouldnt that involve running a gauntlet of IEDs and small arms fire?

  42. NJT says:

    I like Caviar.

  43. My last year in college ( ’83 ) we had a roommate that was an old school Italian gem in our 4-guy on-campus apartment. He was born in Italy and his mother was a widow. Unlike the rest of us, he didn’t drink or smoke, but boym could he cook. We would cough up $1 each late at night and he would hustle up to the Supermarket (walking distance) and round up cheap, fresh ingredients. He would then create simple Tuscan dishes that were better than most of us ever ate for dinner. He did the marketing and cooking, we paid next to nothing for his creations and in turn, cleaned up afterwards. He cooked, which he loved, payed nothing, and we gave him a clean kitchen to create in the following evening. Perfect symbiosis.

    I can make a dinner out of hearty greens and thawed-out A&P chicken gizzards that would make any of you nancy boy girly men forget Whole Foods.

    If you can make it to my front door in the next two days, I’ll serve you some. If, that is, you can make it to my front door.

  44. Here’s an accidental engineering creation that has served me well for almost 20 years now:

    Circa 1996 I purchased an offset shovel at Costco in Clifton, NJ. It consisted of the offset handle and a green plastic shovel with steel leading edge scraping edge. I guess you grab the two pieces and assemble the shovel end to the handle at home. The shovel slid over the shaft of the offset steel tube (calm down anon) and was secured by short sheet metal screw. Putting the shovel into action it had a disturbing amount of play/torsion in actual use. Having just bought by first tap and die set for a bicycle project I decided to cut threads across the horizontal axis( the stock fixing screw located the shovel in the vertical access) in both ends of the steel tube hoping to lock down the torsional movement of the shovel with a long machine screw, threaded through both sides, secured by a nut at the other end. Having no precise way to measure the 90 degree horizontal axis I just decided to wing it. I turns our I was off by smidgen. When I was done I had accomplished what I set out to do, the shovel was now set rock solid in the handle. The part I got wrong turned out to be an extreme pleasure and back saver! By getting the axis off by a few degrees, the shovel became absolutely perfect for a right-handed shoveler as the offset was now canted slightly toward the shoveler (Me!), improving the efficiency tremendously. A left-handed shoveler would curse out my creation and find the shovel almost certainly unusable. Perhaps I’ve said too much sans a patent application;-)

    My plow attachment works fine. Fairly level parking area with a long, gently sloped drive up from street. Besides, as Lt. Cheapo, I like the much lower cost vs a snowblower, fact it won’t suffer a mechanical breakdown, and I can use it for tasks like spreading mulch, stone, etc. I also like the idea of getting more benefit from the lawn tractor by getting to use it for more things.

  45. Comrade Nom Deplume, in moderation says:

    [47] expat

    You’re not gonna believe this but I think we bought a similar shovel, had the same issue and got (more or less) the same result. Only in my case, the plastic insert stripped a bit but remained intact so I used Gorilla glue as I did not think the shovel would last (still have it but it’s pretty beat up now). And same accidental result only I don’t think it is offset by as much as yours since I can use it left-handed if I want.

    I usually only use the ergonomic shovels for pushing anyway. I actually find it worse to lift with a longer handle. For lifting, I use a smaller, traditional handle, shorten the lever by getting closer, and use my legs more to keep the back straight. I also shovel in layers for deeper snow, sometimes using a rowing motion. In the end, it means more lifts but with less weight and it made a huge difference. This is especially important for me as I have a bad back and a family history of heart issues.

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