Otteau’s forecast for 2015

From the Record:

After tepid 2014, home prices forecast to rise 3.5% this year

After treading water in 2014, New Jersey home prices will get a boost from low mortgage rates and an improving job market this year, appraiser Jeffrey Otteau predicted Tuesday.

Otteau, an East Brunswick appraiser whose forecasts are widely followed in the real estate industry, expects home values to rise about 3.5 percent this year, compared with an anemic 1.4 percent in 2014. He also expects this year’s spring market – traditionally the busiest time to buy and sell – to be active.

“If we continue to see strong job creation in the state, it will translate into home purchase demand,” Otteau told more than 130 real estate agents at a seminar in East Hanover.

In January, New Jersey employers added 12,400 jobs – a bright start to the year, although Otteau and other analysts have cautioned that the state’s employers may not be able to keep up that pace. New Jersey added a total of 35,500 jobs for all of 2014 and, unlike the nation as a whole, still has not recovered all the jobs lost as a result of the 2007-2009 recession.

The housing market has been slowly recovering since prices and sales volume cratered several years ago. But New Jersey values are still well below the peaks reached in the housing bubble, and won’t return to 2005 levels until about 2025, Otteau said.

“Prices went up too fast, and we’re still paying the price,” he said. In addition, incomes have been flat.

“More people are working, but they’re not earning enough to be able to afford homeownership,” Otteau said. “We are not able to generate the same level of economic opportunity we once could in the U.S. and New Jersey.”

The best-performing housing markets in the state are those closest to New York City jobs, and other employment opportunities, Otteau said. “Where there are jobs, everything is better,” he said. And towns along commuter rail lines, including Glen Rock and Ridgewood, have experienced strong demand, he said.

Although foreclosures remain an issue in the state, Otteau said that the problem is mostly confined to urban and rural areas, as well as some shore towns hurt by superstorm Sandy.

“Suburban towns have very little foreclosure inventory, and will not be affected,” he said.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

147 Responses to Otteau’s forecast for 2015

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. grim says:

    From Bloomberg:

    Rising Rents Are Finally Forcing Millennials to Buy Houses

    Americans in their 20s and early 30s are getting a nudge toward homeownership a decade after sales peaked during the housing bubble. It’s not their nagging parents. It’s rents. They’ve risen so much that buying is making more sense.

    “I pay $1,410 in rent for my one-bedroom apartment in downtown Denver,” said Eric Arther, 28, who has saved about $30,000 for a down payment. “If I pay that much, I’d like to build some equity.”

    Expect the open-house crowds to skew a little younger during this year’s spring homebuying season. Millennials made up 32 percent of the U.S. housing market in 2014, up from 28 percent two years earlier, and have pulled ahead of the older Generation X as the largest segment of buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors.

    Purchases by younger buyers are likely to grow gradually as millennials work through hurdles such as student debt, lack of down-payment funds and later family formation than previous generations, according to Jed Kolko, chief economist for real estate website Trulia, a unit of Zillow Group Inc.

    “We are at the beginning of a multiyear period where more young people become homeowners,” Kolko said in a telephone interview. “But I think it will happen more slowly than most people expect.”

    First-time buyers made up 29 percent of existing-home sales in February, up from 28 percent in January and the first increase since November, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. The share of new buyers fell last year to its lowest level since 1987, according to the group.

  3. grim says:

    Always knew the Gen X’ers were a bunch of slackers

  4. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup, 2017-2018 wage inflation will be kicking in. By 2020, the housing market will be in another upward cycle. House you bought in the past 5 years will be worth significantly more in price by 2025.

    “Purchases by younger buyers are likely to grow gradually as millennials work through hurdles such as student debt, lack of down-payment funds and later family formation than previous generations, according to Jed Kolko, chief economist for real estate website Trulia, a unit of Zillow Group Inc.

    “We are at the beginning of a multiyear period where more young people become homeowners,” Kolko said in a telephone interview. “But I think it will happen more slowly than most people expect.”

    First-time buyers made up 29 percent of existing-home sales in February, up from 28 percent in January and the first increase since November, the National Association of Realtors reported this week. The share of new buyers fell last year to its lowest level since 1987, according to the group.”

  5. grim says:

    Bulldoze all of Atlantic City and turn it into a nature preserve/state park.

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    @D_Blanchflower: “Zero inflation is good” actually no it isn’t you bozos Japan had a lost decade when it couldn’t create inflation

  7. Anon E. Moose says:

    Notra-dumbass [4];

    Yup, 2017-2018 wage inflation will be kicking in. By 2020, the housing market will be in another upward cycle.

    So what you’re saying is that roughly 14 years after the last housing cycle peak we will see another? Genius.

  8. chicagofinance says:

    takes one to know one…..
    grim says:
    March 25, 2015 at 7:25 am
    Always knew the Gen X’ers were a bunch of slackers

  9. JJ says:

    Rents have really gone up. Right after Sandy some condos that complex got flooded sold for just 250K and folks who bought to rent have maint + property taxes + insurance are around $1,000 a month. Some of units that were fixer uppers etc sold for only 250K after Sandy.

    Anyhow at 250K paying an extra $1,500 a month to rent than own in 166 months you could have owned it. 13.8 years.

    But an owner rather than a landlord gets cheaper property taxes plus cheaper insurance. So it is like only $850 a month to own. So in comparison vs, $2,500 rent it would take only 12.6 years to own.

    But wait rent rises around 3% year, if I actually added that in it would take around only 11 years to own.

  10. Fast Eddie says:

    Lakefront property in North Jersey in any decent town carries a MASSIVE pricing premium. MASSIVE. A nice looking property with a picturesque view out the back, at least $100,000 premium, compared to the exact same house across the street.

    That section of Wash. Twp. looks like Tuckerton. Please.

    “Honey, the hot water heater is leaking, there’s rodents festering in the crawl space and I can’t put a full-sized bed in the 8 X 9 bedroom but look at that view of the swamp lake! Thank goodness Suzanne researched it!!”

    If I’m gonna pay “massive” money to be on a lake, it’ll be in Somerset or Hunterdon County.

  11. JJ says:

    Royal Caribbean Cruises shares slide 1.6%

    How is this even possible? Fuel is down like 50% in last six month. Cruses are booked way in advance, like one year. So Royal Caribbean did not have to pass on any of its fuel savings to passengers. How is it they are not making a ton of money!!!

    For instance folks who own Rent Stabalized apts with heat included, Cab business where fares are regulated, Utility companies that run on Electric and Oil. All their rents, rates etc were set in stone in 2014 and pretty much their cost to do business has fallen like a brick yet rates have stayed the same. How the heck can Royal Caribbean not be making money hand over fist like the Airlines are.

  12. JJ says:

    A water heater is like $1,200 bucks. 100K mark up for a water view is not much at all.

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 25, 2015 at 9:35 am
    Lakefront property in North Jersey in any decent town carries a MASSIVE pricing premium. MASSIVE. A nice looking property with a picturesque view out the back, at least $100,000 premium, compared to the exact same house across the street.

    That section of Wash. Twp. looks like Tuckerton. Please.

    “Honey, the hot water heater is leaking, there’s rodents festering in the crawl space and I can’t put a full-sized bed in the 8 X 9 bedroom but look at that view of the swamp lake! Thank goodness Suzanne researched it!!”

    If I’m gonna pay “massive” money to be on a lake, it’ll be in Somerset or Hunterdon County.

  13. nwnj says:

    Can anyone explain to me how that cop in Linden could have two DUIs and still be a patrolman? That’s mind boggling, someone needs to look into it.

  14. Fast Eddie says:

    “Prices went up too fast, and we’re still paying the price,” he said. In addition, incomes have been flat.

    “More people are working, but they’re not earning enough to be able to afford homeownership,” Otteau said. “We are not able to generate the same level of economic opportunity we once could in the U.S. and New Jersey.”

    What a genius! What about property taxes? Just a distraction?

  15. Fast Eddie says:

    100K mark up for a water view is not much at all.

    In the right area. If you’re convincing yourself that Wash. Twp. is “warranted” then you’re over-paying.

  16. Pete says:

    #16,

    The problem with that house is they are looking for a 200 – 250K markup.

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    If you can afford Bergen country lake front property, why would you want to go to somerset or Hunterdon? Just wondering?

    “If I’m gonna pay “massive” money to be on a lake, it’ll be in Somerset or Hunterdon County.”

  18. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Better than predicting that real estate will never come back.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    March 25, 2015 at 9:10 am
    Notra-dumbass [4];

    Yup, 2017-2018 wage inflation will be kicking in. By 2020, the housing market will be in another upward cycle.

    So what you’re saying is that roughly 14 years after the last housing cycle peak we will see another? Genius.

  19. Ragnar says:

    6, Danny Blanchflower needs to get busy justifying his miserable existence by attacking this article along with Krugman, DeLong, and the rest of the useless Keynesian economists in the world”
    http://www.dklevine.com/general/illusion.5.htm
    concluding with:
    Keynes own work consists of amusing anecdotes and misleading stories. Keynesianism as argued by people such as Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong is a theory without people either rational or irrational, a theory of graphs pulled largely out of thin air, a series of predictions that are hopelessly wrong – together with the vain hope that they can be put right if only the curves in the graphs can be twisted in the right direction. As it happens we have developed much better theories – theories that do explain many facts, theories that provide sensible policy guidance, theories that work reasonably well, theories that are not an illusion. The current versions of these theories are very unlike caricature theories of hopelessly rational people who are all identical. Current theories are not perfect – but unlike the Keynesian theory of perpetual motion machines they explain a great deal and have a great deal of truth to them. A working macroeconomist reading Krugman and DeLong feels as a doctor would if the Surgeon General got up and said that the way to cure cancer was to draw blood using leeches.

    Beware of politicians saying “you never warned us” when the truth is “we ignored your warnings” – and equally beware of economists bearing empty promises of perpetual motion machines. And when it comes to government borrowing, remember that if in the long run we are all dead, hopefully our children will not be.

  20. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    This is a nice package…..

    Inside a Compass job offer

    UPDATED: 8:19 p.m., March 24: When Gene Martinez, the former Soho manager for the Corcoran Group, decamped to Compass earlier this year, he accidentally left a key document on his Corcoran work computer: a copy of his job offer from Compass.

    Now, thanks to a new lawsuit in which Corcoran accuses Compass of “brazenly” poaching agents, that offer has come to light, offering a glimpse at how the startup brokerage lured so many top agents and managers in recent months.

    According to the suit, a copy of which The Real Deal obtained yesterday, Corcoran got its hands on the job offer after hearing that Martinez was working in New York and not in Miami, as he allegedly told Corcoran. In an affidavit, CEO Pam Liebman said: “Martinez left a copy of the Compass/Martinez Agreement on his work computer at Corcoran and it was discovered during a review of Martinez’s work email after rumors surfaced during the week of February 23, 2015 that Martinez was present and working in New York.”

    Compass’ offer to Gene Martinez (source: lawsuit filed by Corcoran on March 23, 2015)

    Base salary

    2015: $400,000 (annualized)
    2016: $425,000
    2017: $450,000
    2018: $475,000

    Signing bonus: One-time payment of $120,000

    Annual individual bonus amount (Based on his performance as Compass’ lead employee for “sourcing, recruiting, hiring and retaining agents” that generate $10 million in gross commission income for the company.)

    $175,000 (first year)
    $150,000 (second year)
    $125,000 (third year)
    $100,000 (fourth year)

    Referral fee: 20 percent of Compass’ gross commissions, for clients referred to the firm

    Expense account

    $3,500 monthly for travel, food and lodging in Miami in connection with Compass’ expansion there

    Benefits

    20 days vacation

    Stock options

    Incentive stock option to purchase 58,979 shares of common stock at the “fair market value.” (The total number of shares issued by Compass was not disclosed, but the startup was valued at about $360 million in July, following a $40 million Series B round.)

  21. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    How did they even get a 2nd mortgage? Numbers don’t add up.

    Second-Mortgage Case Has Justices Second-Guessing An Old Decision

    A case to decide whether homeowners can erase underwater second mortgages through bankruptcy quickly turned into a debate over whether the U.S. Supreme Court should overturn the precedent that raised the issue in the first place.

    Oral arguments in Bank of America BAC -0.03% vs. Caulkett ostensibly focused on whether the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals should have allowed David Caulkett and a second plaintiff to dispose of their second mortgages in bankruptcy. Bankruptcy courts let them off the hook after determining there was no way the lenders could collect because the properties were worth less than even the first mortgage standing in front of them in them. Coulkett, for example, borrowed $183,ooo through a first mortgage and another $47,855 with a second but his house at the time of foreclosure was only worth $98,000.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfisher/2015/03/24/second-mortgage-case-has-justices-second-guessing-an-old-decision/

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    21- Fast eddie, still think people aren’t making money out there? I would say they are killing it, better than ever before.

    Although, I wonder what he does to justify that kind of money.

  23. Xolepa says:

    Not many lakes that you could have a house on in Somerset or Hunterdon. If I was to find one, my choice would be that one in Bernardsville. Lake Ravine. And this might be the house: http://www.trulia.com/homes/New_Jersey/Bernardsville/sold/1000669072-67-Ravine-Lake-Rd-Bernardsville-NJ-07924

  24. grim says:

    I like how that is categorized as “Farm/Ranch”.

    Only in NJ.

  25. Fast Eddie says:

    If you can afford Bergen country lake front property, why would you want to go to somerset or Hunterdon? Just wondering?

    First of all, what does “can’t afford” mean to you? Why do I have to even explain such bullsh1t? Bergen County lakefront property? This is the reason why so many people are f.ucked. It’s astonishing how blind some of you are? And you’re going to compare Wash. Twp. to Basking Ridge, Bernardsville, Warren or Far Hills? Again, $650,000 for a 3 bedroom piece of sh1t in the Tuckerton area of Wash. Twp. Pathetic.

  26. The Great Pumpkin says:

    20-

    Austrian school is just as bad. They want you to save everything and never carry debt. What world are they living in to mock someone else when their economic principle is just as bad.

    I truly believe you have to have a balance between all these economic theories. You need to have hybrid approach. Follow any of these theories to an extreme and the system will fail. Different times require different cures. Understanding this is critical to guiding the economy.

    “For those of you who – sensibly – are interested in facts – bear in mind that the main tenet of Keynesianism is that the key to growth is to avoid saving. “

  27. Libturd in Union says:

    Although, I wonder what he does to justify that kind of money.

    He probably suckers other rich guys to invest with the firm or puts together a team to do it for him. Rich people are not necessarily smart with their investments. Especially the nouveau riche through inheritance.

  28. grim says:

    26 – You’d pay $500-600k for a shithole on Packanack or Pines Lake in Wayne.

  29. The Great Pumpkin says:

    People will pay significantly more to be lakefront and 15-30 miles outsides the city. No one is blind, but you. Come by pines lake. Take a look at what those lake front properties are going for. I already know that you will not pay for it, but a bunch of people will.

    Fast Eddie says:
    March 25, 2015 at 10:37 am
    If you can afford Bergen country lake front property, why would you want to go to somerset or Hunterdon? Just wondering?

    First of all, what does “can’t afford” mean to you? Why do I have to even explain such bullsh1t? Bergen County lakefront property? This is the reason why so many people are f.ucked. It’s astonishing how blind some of you are? And you’re going to compare Wash. Twp. to Basking Ridge, Bernardsville, Warren or Far Hills? Again, $650,000 for a 3 bedroom piece of sh1t in the Tuckerton area of Wash. Twp. Pathetic.

  30. grim says:

    Lots of people will pay a massive premium to be on a malaria infested rat hole lake, all across NJ. Nice place on a nice part of a lake, million dollars. In a haughty town? Not hard to find plenty of $2 million options in towns like Mountain Lake. A shithole teardown would probably get a million easy.

    The fact that these places are on a lake is the single most important defining feature of the property.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    On pines lake, 900,000 seems to be the going rate for a shithole.

    grim says:
    March 25, 2015 at 10:42 am
    26 – You’d pay $500-600k for a shithole on Packanack or Pines Lake in Wayne

  32. grim says:

    Cost of entry into pedestrian pines lake in wayne is a million for lakefront, and there are plenty of comps behind the numbers.

    You want to shit yourself, look at the properties on Indian Trail Club (Franklin Lake). You are talking $3 million easy, probably up to the $7-10m range.

  33. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    If you are interested in looking at Lakefront properties

    http://www.lakehouse.com/browse_map.php?cat=35

  34. grim says:

    Easy 1-2 million dollar premium for being lakefront on those higher end ITC properties.

  35. Ragnar says:

    27, Pumpkin,
    I think you should read “Human Action” by von Mises, and “Principles of Economics” by Menger before you offer yourself as an expert commentator on Austrian Economics. For none of those random words you typed bore any relation to reality.

  36. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Exactly.

    I guess fast eddie thinks that they should be going for 500,000. For 500,000 people will be beating each other to the death for a chance to live on a lake within commuting distance to the city. You might not be willing to pay, but there are plenty of people that will. Hence, why the prices are what they are. You can think they are imaginary prices, but the comps say different. Only imagination in prices is in your head.

    grim says:
    March 25, 2015 at 10:51 am
    Cost of entry into pedestrian pines lake in wayne is a million for lakefront, and there are plenty of comps behind the numbers.

    You want to shit yourself, look at the properties on Indian Trail Club (Franklin Lake). You are talking $3 million easy, probably up to the $7-10m range.

  37. The Great Pumpkin says:

    We tried the Austrian economic theories during the late 1800’s and early 1900’s and failed miserably. That’s why I believe that you have to have a hybrid form when applying economic theories. None of them are 100% sound. They all have their faults. Different times and conditions call for different economic theories. Sticking to one form of economic theory usually doesn’t end well. Plus, we are really only 200 years into really thinking about economic theory. There will be new and improved theories, we are only beginning to understand economics. Right now, there is no single correct economic solution out there. If there is, prove it to me.

    Ragnar says:
    March 25, 2015 at 11:20 am
    27, Pumpkin,
    I think you should read “Human Action” by von Mises, and “Principles of Economics” by Menger before you offer yourself as an expert commentator on Austrian Economics. For none of those random words you typed bore any relation to reality.

  38. Ottoman says:

    It’s always amusing to watch people here continuously attempt to reason with the dummy who thinks trickle down is viable economic policy. You have to wonder who the dummies are…

    Anyway Somerset and Hunterdon and southern Morris don’t have very many lake communities because they’re generally much flatter. When we dam up water, it’s for reservoirs. Ravine Lake only exists because the estate owners on the hill above it created it and since the land hasn’t been subdivided only the antique homes in the area, which are few, have views of it.

    Fine with me, lake communities in NJ are generally trashy and that’s because pretty much everything along Routes 80 and 23 where most of them are has been fuglied up by terrible architecture and poor commercial planing. Sure you have a beautiful house on the main lake in Mountain Lakes– drive two minutes south and you’re surrounded by the stench of strip malls on Rt 46 with pretty Parsippany in one direction and Dover in the other. 5 minutes north and you’re at that hideous Walmart overlooking Boonton.

    Tho if you insist on a lake, and you want affordable and a “good town” check out this lake community gem in Mendham– only $195k hehehe

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6-Lake-Dr-Mendham-NJ-07945/39440910_zpid/

    Or you can buy in Bound Brook and Manville. Your basement will be your own private lake with every storm.

    “And you’re going to compare Wash. Twp. to Basking Ridge, Bernardsville, Warren or Far Hills? Again, $650,000 for a 3 bedroom piece of sh1t in the Tuckerton area of Wash. Twp. Pathetic.”

  39. Toxic Crayons says:

    Trump Taj Mahal blocking Stockton University move to Showboat, says school president

    http://www.nj.com/south/index.ssf/2015/03/trump_taj_mahal_blocking_stockton_university_move.html#incart_river

    Efforts to bring a residential offshoot campus of Stockton University to Atlantic City “have reached a stalemate,” said the school’s president Tuesday.

    The school “tried to establish a full campus in Atlantic City six times during my tenure as president and got kicked in the teeth each time,” said Stockton University President Herman Saatkamp in a written statement.

    “This time, we were stabbed in the heart.”

    Stockton purchased the Showboat property for $18 million in December but Saatkamp says Trump Taj Mahal is holding up the project, citing a 1988 deal that says the parcel can only be used for “a first-class c@sino-hotel.

  40. Xolepa says:

    Lake ownership is weird in NJ. Forty years ago, my brother an I pulled up on the side of Lake Paulinskille, in Sussex County. We dropped our 12 foot boat into the water and started fishing. Some guy about 2 hours later starts yelling at us saying we were trespassing. I said wha? He says the lake bottom is private property. I said no it aint and went on fishing.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Very interesting article. What’s your thoughts?

    “The reason this has been so little known, he says, is that the Chinese consider physical battles just one minor aspect of warfare. China’s main weapon, he says, is deception — the constant appearance of achieving less than they really have and needing our help more than they actually do.”

    http://nypost.com/2015/02/08/chinas-secret-plan-to-topple-the-us-as-the-worlds-superpower/

  42. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Isn’t it trickle UP economy?

  43. Mike says:

    14- If the police officers are off duty when getting the DUI they are usually treated like a civilian, disciplined and rehab.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    42-

    “He saw that the real way for China to make progress in the Marathon was to obtain knowledge and skills from the United States,” Pillsbury writes. “In other words, China would come from behind and win the marathon by stealthily drawing most of its energy from the complacent American front-runner.”
    In the decades to come, Pillsbury believes, America helped build China’s economy and military while unknowingly following the Warring States script. (He admits that it was he, in a 1975 article in Foreign Policy, who first “advocated military ties between the United States and China,” and that the idea had been proposed to him by officers in the Chinese military.)
    Following a Warring States philosophy of tricking your opponent into doing your work for you, Deng knew that technology would be the driver for building the Chinese economy and “believed that the only way China could pass the United States as an economic power was through massive scientific and technological development. An essential shortcut would be to take what the Americans already had.”

  45. Ragnar says:

    Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, probably true but your conclusion doesn’t follow from your premise, wrong – and you’re mis-framing the issue because the premise of economics providing “solutions” for whatever you’re imagining is misguided. Finally, there’s a limit to how much charitable educational work I’m willing to do, and I’m willing to do much less for spectacularly unreceptive students such as yourself.

  46. Fast Eddie says:

    Fine with me, lake communities in NJ are generally trashy and that’s because pretty much everything along Routes 80 and 23 where most of them are has been fuglied up by terrible architecture and poor commercial planing.

    H0ly sh1t! We actually agree on something? This was sort of my point!

  47. Xolepa says:

    More NJ lake stories #2, same time frame:

    We used to fish often on Swartzwood Lake near Newton which is state owned. One day my brother and I decided to fish from Little Swartzwood Lake which is private. How did we get there? We paddled our boat from Swartzwood Lake to the Little one through a viaduct just wide enough for the boat. We were under a road for about 100 feet between the lakes. Those residents looked at us as if we were crazy. We were. They couldn’t do anything about it, though.

  48. Xolepa says:

    More NJ lake stories #3, same time frame:

    I and my brother’s pot smoking buddy decide to rent a boat on Lake Farrikan?? North Brunswick. Didn’t catch a fish all day long. We were wondering why the lake always smelled like beer, no matter where we took the boat. It wasn’t until after we were cleaning up the boat did we discover many empties hidden under the seats. I guess that weed messed up our senses.

  49. Xolepa says:

    Trash=Lake Parsippany. My grandmother lived 2 blocks away from the water. The area is now slowly getting gentrified.

  50. Ragnar says:

    The main proponent of trickle down I see these days is Obama appointee Janet Yellen. Apparently giving free (or nearly so) money to banks and driving up the prices of bonds and stocks, while suppressing interest rates from savers is supposed to help the middle class? Seems to be helping Oblamer’s big money donors even more.

  51. The Great Pumpkin says:

    42-

    Scary stuff.

    “Under President Ronald Reagan, for whom Pillsbury served as a foreign policy adviser, the Pentagon agreed to “sell advanced air, ground, naval and missile technology to the Chinese to transform the People’s Liberation Army into a world-class fighting force,” later including “nuclear cooperation and development . . . to expand China’s military and civilian nuclear programs.” Reagan also assisted in China’s development of industries such as “intelligent robotics, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, lasers, supercomputers, space technology and manned spaceflight.”

    “Before long,” Pillsbury writes, “the Chinese had made significant progress on more than 10,000 projects, all heavily dependent on Western assistance and all crucial to China’s Marathon strategy.” Similar assistance has continued to this day.

    All along, Pillsbury writes, China secretly continued to view us as a tyrant, so much so that “starting in 1990, Chinese textbooks were rewritten to depict the United States as a hegemon that, for more than 150 years, had tried to stifle China’s rise and destroy the soul of Chinese civilization.”

    In time, Pillsbury would come to believe that, despite a great amount of American assistance to China over the years, the Chinese people never saw or read anything positive about America.

    Two days after 9/11, Pillsbury writes, “two [Chinese] colonels were interviewed for a Chinese Communist Party newspaper and said of the attacks that they could be ‘favorable to China’ and were proof that America was vulnerable to attack through nontraditional methods.”

    Looking ahead, Pillsbury quotes a RAND Corporation study as saying that China will have “more than $1 trillion” to spend on their military through 2030. This “paints a picture of near parity, if not outright Chinese military superiority, by mid-century.””

  52. Libturd in Union says:

    “Lake Farrikan??”

    Ha ha, I grew up about 5 miles from there. It’s Lake Farr1ngton. There were very few fish in that lake. I don’t think it was stocked. Virtually in my backyard was Lake Duhernal, which was short for Dup0nt, Hercules, and National Lead. Directly next to the lake was an beer yeast processing plant which smelled wonderful, especially on those warm Summer mornings. I could only imagine the pollution in that lake. And we used to swim in it frequently, and sometimes accidentally.

  53. Libturd in Union says:

    Wow. 11 attempts to get that lake through the site filter. I guess it doesn’t like black leaders.

  54. nwnj says:

    #44

    Forgetting for a moment that he had 2 DUIs, how can you patrol with a suspended license?

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Lake Parsippany… ugh! Yes, I’m paying a massive amount of money to live with some meth heads on the lake. I have a pool in my yard, can I give it a name and list my house as lake front? Ooo.. I know, I’ll toss a few fish in there for added legitimacy!

  56. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “We do not have enough resources to meet everyone’s desires.

    The very definition of Economics already begins to challenge any utopian scheme. Sowell cites the British economist Lionel Robbins:

    Economics is the study of the use of scarce resources which have alternative uses.

    Using resources to do one thing requires us to take resources away from somewhere else. And “resources” does not always refer to money or raw materials either. Time, manpower, talent, and knowledge are all resources too that individuals, businesses, governments, and families have to figure out how to use in the most effective way. And these resources can be used in any number of combinations, some much more effective than others.

    With this point Sowell demonstrates that economics really isn’t about money or becoming rich:

    It is about the material well-being of society as a whole. It shows the cause and effect relationships involving prices, industry and commerce, work and pay, or the international balance of trade—all from the standpoint of how this affects the allocation of scarce resources in a way that raises or lowers the material standard of living of the population as a whole.”

    “That’s the hidden pattern that Sowell reveals throughout Basic Economics: the more efficiently a society utilizes its scarce resources the more everyone benefits. And humans have yet to find a more efficient system than a free market economy coordinated by prices, profits, and losses”

    Ragnar says:
    March 25, 2015 at 12:06 pm
    Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, probably true but your conclusion doesn’t follow from your premise, wrong – and you’re mis-framing the issue because the premise of economics providing “solutions” for whatever you’re imagining is misguided. Finally, there’s a limit to how much charitable educational work I’m willing to do, and I’m willing to do much less for spectacularly unreceptive students such as yourself.

  57. The Great Pumpkin says:

    57- That’s the key here, “humans have YET to find a more efficient system than a free market economy”. Does this mean that there is nothing better out there? That we should just keep using the current system forever, because that’s what is best right now? I’m telling you, no system is perfect. If there was a perfect system out there, there would be no questioning a perfect system. Everyone would use it. Clearly, that’s not the case. There will be new economic theories this century, you can count on it.

    “That’s the hidden pattern that Sowell reveals throughout Basic Economics: the more efficiently a society utilizes its scarce resources the more everyone benefits. And humans have yet to find a more efficient system than a free market economy coordinated by prices, profits, and losses”

  58. grim says:

    Sure, plenty of shitholes on shitty lakes too, Morris, Sussex, all the old weekend/summer cottages turned year round housing. They still command premiums compared to the same house two blocks over.

  59. Anon E. Moose says:

    nwnj [14];

    Can anyone explain to me how that cop in Linden could have two DUIs and still be a patrolman? That’s mind boggling, someone needs to look into it.

    Because LEOs are a tribe. They look after their own, to the exclusion of the “others”. Once you’re in, you’re in, and its very hard to be put out (the biggest sin being to betray the tribe). And since they enforce the laws against everyone else, who’d going to put the screws to them over it?

    Kind of like ivy league colleges and grad schools, really — what you do once you get there is almost irrelevant; the hardest part is getting in the door.

  60. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumpkin [19];

    Better than predicting that real estate will never come back.

    I never did. If I had so predicted, I wouldn’t have bought in 2012.

    But that’s not the point. The point is recognizing the 14 year real estate cycle is hardly insightful. More like blindingly obvious.

  61. Bystander says:

    I spent lots of summers with my feet planted on squishy bottom of Budd Lake. Largest natural Lake in NJ if I remember. Several close encounters with snapping turtles and water moccasins. My brother caught huge tiger musky as well. I guess it used to be summer spot for rich families in 1920s but lots of WT lived there full time by the 1980s.

  62. Juice Box says:

    re# 59 -” They still command premiums compared to the same house two blocks over.”

    You can take your crappy lake and drain it for all I care. Coworker has a place on Hopatcong. It is a real lake you can do more than just row a boat on it. It took all of a few minutes to boat around the whole lake before I was extremely bored. Most exciting thing to happen to that place was the 20 ft killer snake story last year.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/giant-snake-loose-n-lake-article-1.1864383

    I’ll take the summer down the shore over a summer on some crappy lake in Passaic or Sussex County.

  63. JJ says:

    Best Lake to live on near New York is Lake Success, in Great Neck.

    The lake is actually bottomless, meaning it is deep enough in middle where they cant measure its depth. It is surrounded by multi multi million dollar homes and a private town owned golf course. There is no public access to lake and between golf course and lake entry not permitted. It is deed soley to the few homeowners, The lake was made by a glacier in the ice age and is pure drinking water quality. You can actual put a glass in lake and drink it.

    I heard of it but only once got to see it close up. I did a painting job in HS in one of the mansions. Women turns out likes to hire “poor” students to give them odd jobs to help them pay expenses. I actually with my brother painted their super large den. Took like six weekends so big and Mom was so nice she bought us lunch every day and paid us like double min wage in cash.

    But wow folks were rich, her neighbor was the retired Postmaster General of the United States and the women herself was one of the owners of Smirnoff vodka. I never saw her husband, but her daughter went to school with me. Honestly, I was 16 and it was first super rich house I was ever in and I stayed there for several weekends. My Mom who was recently widowed had this old beat up stationwagon that blew smoke and she dropped us off and picked us up a few weekends. It was shocking how nice she was. They later sold the business to RJR in 1982 for around 1.4 billion. Yep that is 1982 money. They had a daughter in my grade and she just wore Levis, converse and tshirts to school and was low key and nice. Until I was in house and Mother said you go to school with my daughter I had no clue. I should have gone all dowton Abby like the Chauffeur who married in to the family. Funny part, to this day I sometimes buy Smirnoffs instead of the fancy vodka as the people were so nice.

  64. Bystander says:

    “Honestly, I was 16 and it was first super rich house I was ever in and I stayed there for several weekends. My Mom who was recently widowed had this old beat up stationwagon that blew smoke and she dropped us off and picked us up a few weekends.”

    JJ was Daniel-san..hah hah. Queue the
    Ralph Macchio story. Does anyone doubt that JJ fills in some of his details from movie sub-plots? Mom picking you up at 16? Figured you would have been driving at 14.

  65. Juice Box says:

    JJ – That pond is literally sandwiched between the LIE and Southern State. I hope they like the noise and fumes.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/fsba_lt/days_sort/40.769727,-73.700237,40.756921,-73.718112_rect/15_zm/0_mmm/

  66. JJ says:

    That house for sale for 4.9 million is not lake front, it is lake view across the street. Surprisingly you cant hear the highway at all. I worked as a Jantior in the county club when I was 18 for a few weeks. It was very peaceful when I was rolling my bull dozer to flatten out the clay tennis courts at six am

    Juice Box says:
    March 25, 2015 at 4:28 pm
    JJ – That pond is literally sandwiched between the LIE and Southern State. I hope they like the noise and fumes.

    http://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/fsba_lt/days_sort/40.769727,-73.700237,40.756921,-73.718112_rect/15_zm/0_mmm/

  67. chicagofinance says:

    Bar Mitzvah (JJ Edition):
    Mazel tov!

    An Arizona woman who had recently gotten breast implants was busted after she got wasted at a Scottsdale bar mitzvah, showed off her new boobs to a group of unimpressed peers — and then got rowdy with a bunch of boys, police said.

    Lindsey Radomski, 32, got her peep show started by flashing about five adults Saturday at a party with about 100 guests.

    When she was scolded not to expose herself again, she tried exciting a group of “juveniles” by the pool, police said.

    The drunken yoga instructor later let seven underage boys, ages 11 to 15, fondle her new jugs in a bedroom, while most of the guests had gone home or fallen asleep.

    She allegedly performed oral sex on a 15-year-old boy who was the last to leave, police said.

    “It’s definitely an odd case,” Sgt. Ben Hoster told the Daily News. “We’ve never seen a case like this before. You have an adult, and you have so many juveniles — we’re just concerned for the kids.”

    Radomski later told authorities she was too intoxicated to remember the wild night, but admitted to flaunting her new chest.

    She was arrested Tuesday after the teen’s parents reported the incident to the cops.

    Radomski has charged with sexual conduct with a minor, sexual abuse and indecent exposure.

  68. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Have you ever seen pines lake area? Crappy?? It’s one of the nicest locations between 287 and nyc, imo. It’s a beautiful private lake that is super clean. When you enter the pines lake area, it feels like you are in some beautiful country setting. It’s truly a hidden gem that many people do not even know exists. Always amazed at people’s reaction when they see the area for the first time.

    People are talking about white trash lake areas. I don’t think grim and I were ever referring to white trash locations. Anything past 287 starts to become sketchy in terms of lake communities. There are still some nice ones, but most are occupied by white trash that took over vacation homes and started living in them full time.

    “I’ll take the summer down the shore over a summer on some crappy lake in Passaic or Sussex County.”

  69. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I agree. I used to get attacked by the fast eddie types for stating to buy now. Glad we are on the same page. I bought last week in 2011, so it seems our thought process is not that far off when it comes to money.

    “But that’s not the point. The point is recognizing the 14 year real estate cycle is hardly insightful. More like blindingly obvious.”

  70. jcer says:

    I agree with Juice Box, lakes in NJ are not the main attraction. Out in the midwest they command a huge premium, here people are buying a view and that is it. When you have the ocean, a lake is decidedly second rate.

  71. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Last week of 2011

  72. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I guarantee majority of people living on pines lake have a shore house. Anyone living on the lake is swimming in money. Trust me, it does command a huge premium.

    jcer says:
    March 25, 2015 at 5:33 pm
    I agree with Juice Box, lakes in NJ are not the main attraction. Out in the midwest they command a huge premium, here people are buying a view and that is it. When you have the ocean, a lake is decidedly second rate.

  73. The Great Pumpkin says:

    73- Still think it doesn’t carry a premium?

    See what I found on #Zillow!
    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39799853_zpid

  74. jcer says:

    don’t care just because some idiot massively overpaid for lake front doesn’t mean that it is nothing more than a view. People will pay for a view don’t get me wrong, but it is of limited usefulness.

  75. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Bi-level for 950,000. It’s a shame that they updated it. Whoever buys it will knock it down.

    See what I found on #Zillow!
    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/39799832_zpid

  76. The Great Pumpkin says:

    It’s for the area and location (view). Until you go there and see it, don’t mock it. I doubt they massively overpaid for it. You are acting like fast Eddie now. Just because you wouldn’t pay for it, doesn’t mean it’s a rip-off. People have big money, what else are they supposed to do with it?

    You should see the custom home they built there. All earthly materials. Beautiful. Past 3 years, maybe like 10 houses have been knocked down and replaced. Awesome materials on all of them. One house has wood shingles. Others slate. Really nice area.

    jcer says:
    March 25, 2015 at 5:45 pm
    don’t care just because some idiot massively overpaid for lake front doesn’t mean that it is nothing more than a view. People will pay for a view don’t get me wrong, but it is of limited usefulness.

  77. POS cape says:

    40

    “Stockton purchased the Showboat property for $18 million in December but Saatkamp says Trump Taj Mahal is holding up the project, citing a 1988 deal that says the parcel can only be used for “a first-class c@sino-hotel.”

    Given the crapshoot a college degree is these days, I’d say Stockton qualifies.

  78. NJT says:

    Greenpond Lake is still (IMHO) the best one in NJ (if you HAVE to live lakeside).

    WASPY nest though. Oh, and you never really own the property (99 year lease) and MUST belong to the yacht club.

    Natural glacial lake and THE cleanest in NJ (you can see bottom at 20′ or more some days). Beautiful natural white sand beach!

    The community is broken up geographically with the ‘village’ on the north shore (converted bungalows, a few Victorians and smattering of everything else) ‘Peppertown’ (west side of lake with a TINY road) that’s ALL lakefront summer shanties then, ‘Lake end’. Mostly multi million dollar stuff now with a few converted older seasonal homes belonging to children of the original owners.

    Place is VERY exclusive and property taxes (even for NJ) are ridiculous.

    http://greenpondrealestate.com/

    I went to school with one of the women in the picture.

    Re: ‘Natural’ NJ Lakes. Not many (a dozen?) bigger than a few acres and all except one has been ‘enhanced’ (outlet stream damned) except Budd. Some were actually two lakes (until the dams that were mostly used to provide regular water flow to Iron making furnaces).

    Here they are largest to smallest:

    Lake Hopatcong – Trashy to Trump like
    Greenpond – Snobby
    Waywayanda (now a state park)
    Budd Lake – A notch up from rural PA (talking about the lake ‘community’).

    *Greenwood Lake is half in NYS so…

  79. NJT says:

    BTW – You can get a train to NYC about two miles away (with free parking!).

  80. grim says:

    78 – Post of the day

  81. grim says:

    A view is worthless, but that doesn’t stop people for paying for it.

    Look at all the suckers that bought NYC view places in Hoboken 25 years ago that are now staring at a wall.

  82. chicagofinance says:

    So September 21, 2015 is ten years? What is going to be done?

    It is a Monday……..

  83. Fabius Maximus says:

    #63 Juice

    I rented for a year on Hopatcong and I have to disagree.
    The lake is what you make of it. My place came with a dock and the landlord sold me a Pontoon boat for $1K as he didn’t want insurance issues. I sold it back to him when I moved out. I would come home battling back up Rt 80, put the kids in Life Jackets, grab a few beers from the fridge and sail round for an hour. The ultimate stress reliever.
    My neighbor on one side was a BSD from one of the BIG telecoms. He was big into Water Ski Hydrofoils. My other neighbor owned one on the largest Ford dealerships in NJ. These were their summer homes. Come winter you never saw them, but then you had ice fishing. Also, when they knew you were year round the real locals opened up.
    If it wasn’t for the commute and the schools I would move back.

  84. Comrade Nom Deplume, Land Snark says:

    [84] Rory Martin,

    “Come winter you never saw them, but then you had ice fishing. Also, when they knew you were year round the real locals opened up.”

    I so cannot see that. It sounds so much like the lifestyle enjoyed by those you regularly denigrate.

    Speaking of denigration, I am on my way to South Carolina, another place that I am sure you feel would benefit from your presence.

  85. Comrade Nom Deplume, Land Snark says:

    Having lived and worked in DC for many years, and observed the behavior of the delegate from DC, I am not the slightest bit surprised by this.

    http://hoh.rollcall.com/congresswoman-demonstrates-worst-parking-job-ever-video/

    For those of you not familiar with her, imagine a female Al Sharpton sitting in Congress with literally nothing meaningful to do.

  86. This article is actually outstanding . Excellent details being shared.
    For more details please visit our website @ http://bptpparkfloors.in/

  87. Libturd in the City says:

    Last!

  88. J La says:

    Living on Franklin Lake is crazy restrictive. Mc Bride family owns the lake and a 50ft setback from edge on all property. No docks or boat launches allowed. Only access us at Indian Trail Club. And no motorized watercraft. But they do maintain by cleaning and spraying for Mosquitos.

  89. Liquor Luge says:

    50-100 years of wailing and gnashing of teeth. Chinese water torture. Imminent doom.

  90. anon (the good one) says:

    @business: NEWS ALERT: U.S. jobless claims fall to 5-week low

    @CNBCnow: BREAKING: US weekly jobless claims total 282,000 vs 290,000 estimate

  91. anon (the good one) says:

    @njdotcom:

    Jersey Shore summer rentals surging, demand pushing prices higher as peak weeks sell out

  92. JJ says:

    Those Lakes out in Jersey are very far out. The other factor in that Lake Success Lake is on the weekend at night when we used to go to clubs in city like at 11pm at night I made it door to door in my car to city in 19 minutes. Plus if I took 59th street bridge free. Those Jersey lakes are far out and the tolls are crazy high. If you look at places like Great Neck or Manhasest type areas they sell for more than NJ because of travel time.

    My buddy used to do consulting type stuff with Howard Stern way back. Twice he went to his house way back. He was surprised it was a pretty nice house but not amazing. But it was by Roslyn area right off the Long Island Expressway like one block at most. Howard was telling him the radio station has a Limo out front at crack of day in him contract, his favorite coffee, bagels, juice all the newspapers. He fly down LIE to midtown and be at work in 25 minutes. Show ended at lunchtime he fly back home in Limo and on Weekends in Summer he had the Hamptons house and being on LIE it was a straight shoot out. Yep the LIE or Northern State are crowded and noise. But where I grew up I was four houses from the train which was like a 23 minute commute or at night a 20 minute drive in. I drove in a lot as I did not have a LIRR pass in college. Or I drove in if we were going to several clubs. Meanwhile my Jersey friends rarely went to city, long commute, no regular trains, expensive tolls and NJ cops are the worse looking for drunk drivers at the tunnels and Bridges.

    Not everyone goes out in the city. But if you are a party person, broadway person, hamptons person you live in the city or try to get as close as possible in a great town with no tolls, short train ride and no City tax.

  93. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    You have to do more than simply show up every day. It’s the going above and beyond what is asked that helps you keep a seat past a few rounds of cuts.

    Kraft-Heinz Deal Shows Brazilian Buyout Firm’s Cost-Cutting Recipe

    A key ingredient in 3G Capital Partners LP’s recipe for reshaping the U.S. food industry—reflected in its roughly $49 billion deal to acquire Kraft Foods Group Inc.—is an arcane-sounding financial tool that slashes costs by focusing on details as minute as how to make photocopies.

    Zero-based budgeting requires managers to plan each year’s budget as if no money existed the previous year, rather than using the typical method of adjusting prior-year spending. That forces them to justify the costs and benefits of each dollar every 12 months. So, for example, once-successful divisions that have fizzled can’t keep spending like they did in their heyday. The system, pioneered as a business tool decades ago by a former Texas Instruments Inc. manager, initially wasn’t used widely in corporate America.

    As much as anything, zero-based budgeting is a symbol of the new reality for U.S. business: Activists are pressing at all sides, giving managements little room for slack or bloated budgets. This ethos has seeped into nearly every boardroom, prompting pre-emptive steps that emulate the activists themselves.
    The effects of this change are improved shareholder returns and dividends. But on the flip side, it has made the work for employees more rigorous and, some would argue, more ruthless.

    At Heinz, which already had undergone years of cost cuts, 3G quickly set out to make deeper changes, paring staff at its Pittsburgh headquarters and gutting individual offices in favor of open floor plans. It slashed Heinz’s overall head count by about 1,480, or 4% of the world-wide workforce, shut several factories and grounded corporate jets.

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/from-heinz-to-kraft-zero-based-budgeting-sweeps-across-america-1427308494

  94. JJ says:

    A Manhattan Surgeon right after Sandy bought a huge water front place near my dinky condo. Paid one million cash after Sandy. It was not substantially damaged, it was a second home with no flood insurance. He fixed it up really nice. He did not have to raise or anything and it is on market for 3.3 Million. House a few doors down sold for around 2.8 million a few months ago. Meanwhile the three months after Sandy 3-5 of them sold between 700K and 1.1 Million all cash

    anon (the good one) says:
    March 26, 2015 at 9:17 am
    @njdotcom:

    Jersey Shore summer rentals surging, demand pushing prices higher as peak weeks sell out

  95. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    And how are they going to drive the housing market in the next few years?

    More than half of middle-class kids fail to earn bachelor’s degrees

    Here’s a little-known, scary stat: More than half of middle class kids who start college fail to earn a bachelor’s degree within six to eight years.

    The low graduation rate has big implications for young adults’ ability to remain in the middle class, or to rise a few rungs above their parents on the economic ladder. A college degree, once a ticket to the middle class, is now a must-have to maintain that status.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/25/news/economy/middle-class-kids-college/index.html?sr=twmoney032615middleclasskids0700story

  96. Juice Box says:

    28 year old co-pilot crashed the plane intentionally? 630 hours flying time and had been with Germanwings since September 2013.

    A Part Timer?

  97. The Great Pumpkin says:

    On the upside, wages are the only major yardstick of the American economy that’s falling short. CNNMoney’s survey of economists projects that 235,000 jobs were added in February. That’s lower than the 257,000 jobs added in January, but would still be considered very healthy. The unemployment rate has dropped, and long-term unemployment is down too.
    Experts say better wage growth should come now that the economy is so much better off. The question is just when. That’s why Friday’s report will get a lot of attention.

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/05/news/economy/wage-growth-february-jobs-report/index.html?iid=ob_article_footer&iid=obinsite

  98. jj says:

    Just put a low ball bid in on the stock, DLAKY, Lufthansa ADR. Goes Ex-Div in a few weeks and near a 52 week low. Honestly, if the Germans were great fliers they would have won at least one war they were in.

    Juice Box says:

    March 26, 2015 at 10:05 am

    28 year old co-pilot crashed the plane intentionally? 630 hours flying time and had been with Germanwings since September 2013.

    A Part Timer?

  99. The Great Pumpkin says:

    NJ is at no 3 on the list. Need to make 538,000 in nj to crack the 1% in incomes.

    “Want to be part of the Top 1%?
    Move to Arkansas. The bar is much lower there.
    It only takes $228,298 to get into the upper echelon in Arkansas, according to a report from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.
    But in Connecticut, which has the highest threshold, it takes $677,608 to make it into that elite group. Researchers looked at IRS data for 2012 tax returns by state.
    The Top 1% has been pulling away from the rest of the country as their incomes skyrocket. The trend is even more pronounced in certain states.”

    http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/27/news/economy/top-1/index.html?iid=ob_article_footer&iid=obinsite

  100. Libturd in the City says:

    Investing in airlines? That’s worse than precious metals. I’m surprised JJ. I hope it’s a real short-term trade.

  101. Anon E. Moose says:

    Luge [90];

    50-100 years of wailing and gnashing of teeth. Chinese water torture. Imminent doom.

    Can we at least get credit for time served — the ~5 years since the bubble peaked/popped?

  102. Libturd in the City says:

    In other news, I think the rental market is peaking. Remember how happy I was to get another $1,200 per year off of my downstairs unit? Well the upstairs we are lowering the price by $225 per month. First time I’ve ever had to lower rent to get a tenant, but I can’t stand vacancies. Just for that, I’m not shoveling the full width of their sidewalk. Now on, footpath only!

  103. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [99];

    Honestly, if the Germans were great fliers they would have won at least one war they were in.

    Heard on the radio at Munich airport:

    Lufthansa (in German): “Ground, what is our start clearance time?”
    Ground (in English): “If you want an answer you must speak in English.”
    Lufthansa (in English): “I am a German, flying a German airplane, in Germany. Why must I speak English?”
    Unknown voice from another plane (in a beautiful British accent): “Because you lost the bloody war.”

  104. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [104];

    Now on, footpath only!

    Cheaper than a slip & fall lawsuit? Yeah, you’re insured, but its still a headache, and your rates will go up.

    I thoroughly enjoyed clearing snow this winter — first year with the snow blower. I had some people over last Friday night, and got home early, was able to clear the driveway, throw down 80 lbs of salt before dinner.

  105. Libturd in the City says:

    Snowblower works great on the newly repaved and resurfaced driveway. It is a bit of a PITA on the old blue stone sidewalks. But still 100% better than shoveling.

  106. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “A true meritocracy (people’s success or failure being completely dependent on their own efforts) was considered by the founding fathers but it would require a 100% inheritance tax. The real reason many promoted this was not animosity towards the rich or the successful but rather a fear that money would accumulate in the hands of the rich and powerful to the extent that they would be able to buy influence and the government would slowly begin to benefit the rich and incorporated over the majority. They feared our country would default to the equivalent of a monarchy where rich nobles gained ever more wealth by denying the same opportunities they had to get rich from the majority.

    Successful businessmen throughout history have had access to free or cheap loans from the government but today kids are saddled with 100K loans from school preventing them from accessing affordable loans to start businesses. It used to be all you needed to be a successful businessman was a high school education and a high school education was provided for free. Today you need a college degree to be a successful businessman and it will cost 100K guaranteeing that you can’t start your own business but instead have to work for someone else. There is no single group (rich, poor, east coast, west coast, male, female) with a monopoly on fantastic ideas. But there is a group with a monopoly on following up on fantastic business opportunities and that is those who inherited enough wealth to start their own company. If we want a thriving innovative economy, we need to ensure that everyone has the opportunity to follow up on their dreams by ensuring free education and access to business loans for strong business plans. “

  107. Libturd in the City says:

    “Successful businessmen throughout history have had access to free or cheap loans from the government but today kids are saddled with 100K loans from school preventing them from accessing affordable loans to start businesses”

    College only costs 100K due to the availability of college loans. Get rid of college loans and walla…prices will be cut in half. Kind of like what happened when the banks temporarily stopped offering no doc loans in 2007.

  108. Libturd in the City says:

    on mortgages of course.

  109. yome says:

    96
    When my daughter got in to RU, she was told not to take more than 15 credits. This is a place that 13 credit is considered full time and basically take as much credit above 13 and you will still be paying full time tuition equal to 13. I told her you will not graduate in 4 years and she insisted.
    Before graduation she wants to take another sem and take 13 credits. I said no. Take 18 credits for 2 sems and you will be done in 4.
    She graduated in 4. This was true with my son. This Universities wants you to take the minimum credits and pay full time and graduate 5 to 6 years. Parents that are not paying dont care

  110. Condo 1987 says:

    #112…my son is at NC State, they charge same fee for 12-18 credits. I suggested taking 17/18…he now just signed up for his last semester and will finish in 3.5 years ….I agree, many schools want you to make this a 6 year adventure. We (I) save about $16,000 by him ending a semester early.

  111. chicagofinance says:

    Anon E. Moose says:
    March 26, 2015 at 10:37 am
    JJ [99];

    Honestly, if the Germans were great fliers they would have won at least one war they were in.

    Heard on the radio at Munich airport:

    Lufthansa (in German): “Ground, what is our start clearance time?”
    Ground (in English): “If you want an answer you must speak in English.”
    Lufthansa (in English): “I am a German, flying a German airplane, in Germany. Why must I speak English?”
    Unknown voice from another plane (in a beautiful British accent): “Because you lost the bloody war.”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yR0lWICH3rY

  112. JJ says:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/03/stuck-with-a-house-that-cant-be-sold/388715/

    great article and place is in NJ. this should be lead article for next new thread

  113. Simon says:

    RE: 100

    The problem with most financial reporting on this topic:

    “Connecticut has the widest spread between the average income for the Top 1% and the average income for the rest of the state. They make 51 times that of the rest of their neighbors ($2.7 million vs. $52,600). On the flip side, Hawaii has the narrowest spread at only 14.6.”

    Average income of the top 1% is not “threshold income” for 1%.

  114. Libturd in the City says:

    Any white person who buys in East Orange deserves to get screwed.

  115. Juice Box says:

    I jhave a hard time believing the property is worth $125,000.

  116. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    [117] Liturd

    They said that about Harlem but it worked out for them but too your point, you have to really know the market. Condo screwed him.

  117. Libturd in the City says:

    Harlem has changed demographically more than I’ve changed my own underwear in the last 100 years. Its location certainly has a ton to do with it.

  118. Xolepa says:

    Funny, but there is a Lake Success in NJ. Can’t live there, though. It’s now part of the national park system, incorporated after the Tocks Island dam fiasco. My parents bought a lot in this to-be lake community in the early sixties. Govt seized it via Eminent Domain in the early seventies. I think my parents were paid $4k by the feds. Funny thing, those lake communities. Turns out, another party claimed title to the lot. My mother had to go to court to fight for it. She had a deed. The other guy didn’t. She won. The developers double (and triple) sold the lots. Florida shadiness at its finest.

  119. Anon E. Moose says:

    Pumpkin [108], Lib [109];

    Lib’s got it exactly right. Furthermore, in fine deepthroat fashion, follow the money… right to stridently left-wing, ivory tower institutions who bear NO recourse if their charges can’t repay on the wages the market will afford a BFA in underwater basketweaving.

  120. Anon E. Moose says:

    Lib [117];

    “Bordeline” and “transitioning” neighborhood, he calls it.

    Got sacked by the filter: TL;DR — Gambled in real-estate c@sin0; lost. Wah!

  121. jcer says:

    125, actual address is to the left at the gates of hell! EOrange, guy has to be kidding me, there were some real suckers in 2007.

  122. Bystander says:

    I remember looking at dumps in Westfield back in 2004 and realtor was pushing the imminent gentrification of Plainfield and how McGreevey lives there…blah,blah. Same for Maplewood. They tried push South Orange and Orange as next Maplewoods. I can see how a young 22 year old could get sucked in. The ex lost big time on the Westfield dump. Thought she was smart. I can only imagine how different my life would be if I bought in Plainfield or SO. She certainly would not have taken the house in divorce. I would probably be living there now. Thank God for this blog bc I took the money and ran while to lost 80k.

  123. JJ says:

    Shooting at people who are not shooting back and aiming for the face is not defending yourself. Plus a person with a warrant is not a home intruder.

    Plus he shot four people and killed one of them. My law professor told me you generally in a fight wait to get punched first. At that point you can decide not to hit back and charge the guy with criminal assault and sue him if you want. Or at that point engage in the fist fight which will be a wash in court.

    That guy was not defending himself as someone climbing in the window it is premature to shoot them. Could be some drunk who thought he lost his key and had wrong house.

    My idiot friend who was a gun nut work up and found a strange man in his house and almost shot him. Pitch black guy lying on floor he in his underware with a loaded shotgun. Turns out his Mom offered neighbor extra firewood before she went away for weekend. Neighbor sent nephew over to get it as Mom told him door unlocked. My friends Mom and neighbor were furious. Bottom line it was WOOD, Firewood, you caught a guy trying to take a few pieces of wood and even if it was a thief you were going to shoot him with a shotgun. Didnt it ever dawn on you just to call 911 or something or grab gun and go to top of steps and yell something

    joyce says:
    March 26, 2015 at 3:05 pm
    Texas Wants to Execute Man Who Killed Home Intruder
    http://reason.com/blog/2014/09/17/texas-wants-to-execute-man-who-killed-ho

  124. joyce says:

    So 99% of cops?

    JJ says:
    March 26, 2015 at 4:38 pm
    Shooting at people who are not shooting back

  125. joyce says:

    And how are you supposed to know when they bust down your door (or window in this case) without notice?

    JJ says:
    March 26, 2015 at 4:38 pm

    Plus a person with a warrant is not a home intruder.

  126. jj says:

    First that guy was a criminal so he was not allowed to have a gun so there was no expectation he would be shooting. And no someone coming through my window I would not shoot. I would just grab phone go out back door and call 911.

    joyce says:

    March 26, 2015 at 5:02 pm

    And how are you supposed to know when they bust down your door (or window in this case) without notice?

    JJ says:
    March 26, 2015 at 4:38 pm

    Plus a person with a warrant is not a home intruder.

  127. Anon E. Moose says:

    JJ [132];

    First that guy was a criminal so he was not allowed to have a gun so there was no expectation he would be shooting.

    If that is true then the cops had no excuse for a no-knock warrant — knock & announce.

  128. chicagofinance says:

    The End Is Nigh (JJ Transportation Edition):

    A couple was caught having sex on a rental motorbike as they cruised down a scenic Indian highway.

    Police tracked the passionate pair after a local politician posted a photo of the high-speed sex on his Facebook.

    The image showed the man — wearing nothing but a T-shirt and socks — steer the bike while the woman sat on it backward and straddled him.

    Another driver snapped the shot as they crossed a bridge over the Mandovi River in Goa, said MP Vishnu Surya Wagh, a member of the Bharatiya Janata Party.

    “Not a single policeman on the way to stop them. A passer-by happened to click this picture,” he wrote.

    Cops caught wind of the viral image and tracked down the pictured couple. They had rented the motorbike from a local company.

    The duo admitted to having sex while driving, police said. They were fined 1,000 Indian rupees, about $16.

  129. joyce says:

    “knock & announce”

    Exactly… OR (wait for it) arrest the suspect when they leave their home.

  130. The Great Pumpkin says:

    A $7.4 million judgment for the owner of a Florham Park house that is gradually sliding down a hill was thrown out by an appellate court last month. But another appeal may still bring it to the New Jersey Supreme Court.

    The initial $7.4 million award was made to homeowner Humayun Akhtar in 2011 when a judge reached a summary judgment without hearing the arguments of the defendants: JDN Properties, Joseph D. Natale, Deltrus LLC, and Randy DeLuca, said the attorney for Natale.

    “He improperly suppressed the answers,” said David Stanziale, the lawyer for Natale. “We’re very happy now that Mr. Natale’s going to have his day in court.”

    The Akhtars paid $1.56 million to build the home on Beacon Hill Road, according to court documents. The architect’s plan called for testing of the soil, but that testing was never done. The owners closed on the house, but then heard from a plumber doing work on the property that the house was “sliding,” according to the records. The Akhtars never moved in, and the house remains unoccupied, said the attorneys.

    http://www.nj.com/morris/index.ssf/2015/03/their_house_is_sliding_down_a_hill_but_a_court_threw_out_a_74m_judgment_against_the_builders.html#incart_most-read_opinion_article

  131. NJT says:

    #121 X

    Lake Success, Crater lake and Long Pine/Blue mountain lake would have been ringed
    with houses and the Big Flat Brook valley subdivided into oblivion. The whole area was being planned as a high density ‘Poconos in NJ’. Can you imagine the traffic jams on Rt. 206 up there if it happened?

    Several long time residents (some families going back to the 1600s – oldest road in the U.S. is located there) who didn’t take the buyout (pathetic prices) and fought in court until the project was cancelled got to stay but, only until they died then the Feds. would pay out the paltry sum they figured it was worth, evict them and bulldoze any structure if it was not historic which meant (pretty much) a stone house or building from the 1700s. Happened to many.

    I belong to a hunting and fishing club that has a cabin in the area. Strange thing, some ‘life rights’ properties are still occupied though the owners have passed away. A few are even premium rentals (HOLY SHITE! I can’t believe the prices they get). Somebody is getting paid off somehow. Definitely not the Park (Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area) Super, though. The guy is so clean he probably takes a bath in bleach and wants to be Director of all U.S. National Parks.

    Yeah, know the area well.

  132. Comrade Nom Deplume, Loan Snark says:

    [133] chifi

    That’s nothing. Try it in a Subaru.

  133. NJT says:

    Rents? I’ll have an empty unit soon in WARREN County. I predict it’ll last a day. Ideal for a young, single professional. Nearest train to NYC is Hackettstown but the Lehigh Valley area of PA is 15 minutes away with two free bridges and has a lot of opportunity for entry level skilled grads. (and some for grey haired experienced white males, too).

  134. Ben says:

    When my daughter got in to RU, she was told not to take more than 15 credits. This is a place that 13 credit is considered full time and basically take as much credit above 13 and you will still be paying full time tuition equal to 13. I told her you will not graduate in 4 years and she insisted.
    Before graduation she wants to take another sem and take 13 credits. I said no. Take 18 credits for 2 sems and you will be done in 4.
    She graduated in 4. This was true with my son. This Universities wants you to take the minimum credits and pay full time and graduate 5 to 6 years. Parents that are not paying dont care

    I had 21 credits per semester at one point at RU my senior year. I went to none of the classes and worked full time. Only stopped in to take exams.

  135. NJT says:

    #137

    1965 Ford Galaxy XL was nice… and cheaper than a motel room. Kid I sold it to tried to drive it like Porsche. All the girls made it out OK.

    *428 V8. Cruised down the Parkway to the shore so soft at 120 MPH it felt like 60. I should have never sold that car…but college bills loomed large and 8-10 MPG was not in the budget.

    Years later a family friend told me he would have stored it for me in barn. Yeah dude, now you tell me.

  136. NJT says:

    Correction! The Galaxy had a 406 (rare). Yes, a real XL ‘fastback’ with the 406 (Ford FE ‘big’ blocks in the 60s ranged from 352-428 CI displacement). 428 didn’t appear in cars sold to the public until 68 though a few made it into late year mustangs in ’67.

    Galaxy was a great drive in car as four people could fit in the trunk!

  137. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The way this sounds to me; screw the young workers, but let current retirees enjoy the status quo. If you are going to lower future retiree benefits, shouldn’t you lower current retiree benefits at the same rate also? Lesson here, the youth always suffer at the hands of the elderly. Locust generation indeed.

    “I. OVERVIEW
    The Commission’s September 25, 2014, Status Report outlined in some detail the dire condition of the State’s public employee1 pension and health benefits system. This Report proposes a workable solution.. In concept, the proposed approach is simple: reset the retirement and health benefits that public-sector employees will receive in the future to private-sector levels and use the resulting savings going forward to pay off the existing pension deficit. While some of the details of implementation will require flexibility and shared sacrifice, the Commission believes that the resulting mixture of benefit adjustments, additional funding and structural changes offers the State its best chance to avoid the painful collapse of its public employee benefits system.”

    http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/pdf/FinalFebruaryCommissionReport.pdf

  138. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thank goodness they didn’t allow the developers to do this. That’s the developers M.O., take the money and run. They sell the dream and leave with their money before the nightmare comes.

    “Lake Success, Crater lake and Long Pine/Blue mountain lake would have been ringed
    with houses and the Big Flat Brook valley subdivided into oblivion. The whole area was being planned as a high density ‘Poconos in NJ’. Can you imagine the traffic jams on Rt. 206 up there if it happened?”

  139. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Something has gone radically wrong with the American economy. A once-robust system of “traditional engineering” — the invention, design, and manufacture of products — has been replaced by financial engineering. Without a vibrant manufacturing sector, Wall Street created money it did not have and Americans spent money they did not have.

    Americans stopped making the products they continued to buy: clothing, computers, consumer electronics, flat-screen TVs, household items, and millions of automobiles.

    America’s economic elite has long argued that the country does not need an industrial base. The economies in states such as California and Michigan that have lost their industrial base, however, belie that claim. Without an industrial base, an increase in consumer spending, which pulled the country out of past recessions, will not put Americans back to work. Without an industrial base, the nation’s trade deficit will continue to grow. Without an industrial base, there will be no economic ladder for a generation of immigrants, stranded in low-paying service-sector jobs. Without an industrial base, the United States will be increasingly dependent on foreign manufacturers even for its key military technology.

    For American manufacturers, the bad years didn’t begin with the banking crisis of 2008. Indeed, the U.S. manufacturing sector never emerged from the 2001 recession, which coincided with China’s entry into the World Trade Organization. Since 2001, the country has lost 42,400 factories, including 36 percent of factories that employ more than 1,000 workers (which declined from 1,479 to 947), and 38 percent of factories that employ between 500 and 999 employees (from 3,198 to 1,972). An additional 90,000 manufacturing companies are now at risk of going out of business.

    Long before the banking collapse of 2008, such important U.S. industries as machine tools, consumer electronics, auto parts, appliances, furniture, telecommunications equipment, and many others that had once dominated the global marketplace suffered their own economic collapse. Manufacturing employment dropped to 11.7 million in October 2009, a loss of 5.5 million or 32 percent of all manufacturing jobs since October 2000. The last time fewer than 12 million people worked in the manufacturing sector was in 1941. In October 2009, more people were officially unemployed (15.7 million) than were working in manufacturing.

    When a factory closes, it creates a vortex that has far-reaching consequences. The Milken Institute estimates that every computer-manufacturing job in California creates 15 jobs outside the factory. Close a manufacturing plant, and a supply chain of producers disappears with it. Dozens of companies get hurt: those supplying computer-aided design and business software; automation and robotics equipment, packaging, office equipment and supplies; telecommunications services; energy and water utilities; research and development, marketing and sales support; and building and equipment maintenance and janitorial services. The burden spreads to local restaurants, cultural establishments, shopping outlets, and then to the tax base that supports police, firemen, schoolteachers, and libraries.

    Has U.S. manufacturing declined because its companies are not competitive? Hardly. American companies are among the most efficient in the world. The nation’s steel industry, for instance, produces 1 ton of steel using two man-hours. A comparable ton of steel in China is produced with 12 man-hours, and Chinese companies produce three times the amount of carbon emissions per ton of steel. The same kinds of comparisons are true for other industries.

    But American companies have difficulty competing against foreign countries that undervalue their currencies, pay health care for their workers; provide subsidies for energy, land, buildings, and equipment; grant tax holidays and rebates and provide zero-interest financing; pay their workers poverty wages that would be illegal in the United States, and don’t enforce safety or environmental regulations.”

    http://prospect.org/article/plight-american-manufacturing

  140. The Great Pumpkin says:

    144- Worst mistake ever….abandoning our manufactoring economy for a service economy.

  141. Condo 1987 says:

    #144..didn’t I read this in 1987?

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