All about the wages (but did they get it right?)

From Bloomberg:

U.S. Home Prices Are Surging 13 Times Faster Than Wages

For most people, buying a home is no cheap venture. That’s especially the case when the growth in U.S. home prices is beating wage increases 13 to 1.

Wages climbed by 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2014, compared to a 17 percent increase in home prices around that time, according to a new report from RealtyTrac. The real-estate data provider used the Labor Department’s weekly earnings data to measure wage growth, while home prices were derived from sales-deed data in December 2014 and compared to December 2012 on the hypothesis that a change in average wages would take at least six months to affect home prices.

Using localized earnings data, RealtyTrac also found that 76 percent of housing markets posted increases in home prices that exceeded the wage growth there during that time frame, led by the regions of Merced, California; Memphis, Tennessee; Santa Cruz, California; and Augusta, Georgia. Others include the Detroit, Houston and Miami regions. (To be fair, some of these areas are still considered affordable and experienced massive price drops during the housing bust and recession.)

For demand from traditional buyers to improve, “either wages are going to need to go up or prices are going to need to at least flatten out and wait for wages to catch up,” he said. “You might say the third alternative is interest rates go down so you give people more buying power with their wages, but interest rates are about as low as they can go.”

The trend illustrates the limited impact of the Federal Reserve’s decision to include mortgage-backed securities in its unprecedented asset-buying program. The Fed bought more than $1 trillion of those securities to prop up the housing market after it collapsed and helped trigger the worst recession in the post-World War II era.

With the economy improving and home prices climbing, central bankers seem to have achieved at least part of their goal. However, investors have reaped much of the benefits of rising prices, while meaningful wage growth — and with it the ability of many Americans to buy homes — has yet to materialize. That’s been one reason housing has posted such inconsistent progress over the past two years, even with mortgage rates near historical lows.

The 24 percent of markets where wage growth outpaced home price appreciation from 2012 to 2014 include Tulsa, Oklahoma; Raleigh, North Carolina; Virginia Beach, Virginia; and New York, according to the RealtyTrac data. However in some places, such as the Baltimore region, it’s only because home prices fell during that time period.

In such regions, there may be “a lot of distress those places are working through,” Blomquist said. Though for someone who’s looking for a more “emerging market” where prices have more room to run, “maybe that’s a good opportunity,” he said.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

59 Responses to All about the wages (but did they get it right?)

  1. anon (the good one) says:

    @pdacosta:
    Martin Luther King, 1961 speech to @UAW: “When human values are subordinated to blind economic forces, human beings can become human scrap.”

  2. A Home Buyer says:

    Investigator: Inmates forced like gladiators to fight as deputies took bets

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/27/us/san-francisco-jail-forced-fights/

  3. So if you combine the headlines of yesterday and today’s story, Home Prices are going up 3.5% this year which is 13 times faster than wages are rising.

    That sounds about right.

  4. Mike says:

    Grim or anyone is there a loophole to keep the buyers name and how much they purchased the home for out of The Star Ledger on Sundays, I know this info winds up on the internet eventually. Also when looking up the selling history you would come across sell prices for $1.00 why is that?

  5. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yes, wage inflation is coming baby!! Almost there.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    March 27, 2015 at 8:55 am
    So if you combine the headlines of yesterday and today’s story, Home Prices are going up 3.5% this year which is 13 times faster than wages are rising.

    That sounds about right.

  6. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Transfer of ownership between family is the 1 dollar sign.

    Mike says:
    March 27, 2015 at 8:55 am
    Grim or anyone is there a loophole to keep the buyers name and how much they purchased the home for out of The Star Ledger on Sundays, I know this info winds up on the internet eventually. Also when looking up the selling history you would come across sell prices for $1.00 why is that?

  7. Toxic Crayons says:

    The timing is just coincidental….

    US Declassifies Report Detailing Israel’s Nuke Program

    The U.S. government has chosen to declassify a top secret document that pulls the lid off Israel’s nuclear weapons program.

    According to Israel National News, the document written in 1987 was released in early February. It is believed to be the first time the U.S. has publicly acknowledged Israel has nuclear arms.

    The 386-page document provides a detailed breakdown of how Israel developed nuclear weapons in the 1970s and 1980s.

    Israel is “developing the kind of codes which will enable them to make hydrogen bombs. That is, codes which detail fission and fusion processes on a microscopic and macroscopic level,” reads the report, called “Critical Technological Assessment in Israel and NATO Nations.”

    Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/obama-administration-declassify-document/2015/03/26/id/634771/#ixzz3Vah5jmZs

  8. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Say it with me, “Wage growth is coming”!!! 2-3 years max and she will be ripping!!!

  9. Toxic Crayons says:

    Immigrants filling the void as residents flee N.J. by the tens of thousands (Interactive Map)

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2015/03/as_tens_of_thousands_flee_nj_immigrants_are_filling_the_void.html#incart_river

    New Jersey residents are fleeing the state in droves, but the loss is primarily being offset by a continued influx of immigrants from other countries, without which the state’s population would be declining precipitously.

    Between 2013 and 2014, an estimated 55,000 state residents left New Jersey for other states, the continuation of a trend that’s been going on for decades as people flee the state in search of a lower-cost of living and jobs in places that have been quicker to recover from the recession.

    But in the same span, more than 51,000 people have moved to the Garden State from other countries, at the same reshaping the state’s population and stabilizing its slow growth.

    It’s the same thing that has spurred the state’s massive growth in the early part of the 20th century, but today, it’s preventing an exodus.

    “This is really what we’d call a demographic long wave,” said James Hughes, dean of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University. It’s been going on for a long time and it will continue to go on. The result is a sustained increase in diversity and population.”

    Coming and Going in New Jersey

    The data also show that New Jersey is becoming a more urbanized population, counties with firm access to to New York City in particular are showing major gains, while rural counties like Sussex, Cape May and Hunterdon have lost population.

    While in its infancy, the urban trend revealed in the data could end up having far more dramatic consequences for New Jersey. Experts say is the beginnings of a contraction of the suburban sprawl that has dominated the state’s population growth more than half a century.

    “This is further evidence that a new trend is emerging. The perimeter is starting to contract and this is really a counter to a 65-year trend,” Hughes said.

    Click here to check out our interactive map below

    The urbanization of New Jersey is a symptom of the transition between the Baby Boomer generation and the Millennials. The younger generation is coming to dominate the workforce and is seeking out different things from their parents, he said.

  10. ccb223 says:

    Confirmed. Plenty of wage growth in NY.

  11. Ragnar says:

    “economic forces” = human action. Economics is about people, moron. Nothing blind about it other than the blindness and hubris of central planners imagining that they could force other people to do better.

  12. Ragnar says:

    “economic forces” = human action. Economics is about people. Nothing blind about it other than the blindness and hubris of central planners imagining that they could force other people to do better.

  13. jj says:

    I am partially black and it is actually and advantage. But luckily for me it is just my schlong

  14. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    Think Millennials Prefer the City? Think Again

    Here’s the usual media narrative: Millennials prefer cities to suburbs. They love renting lofts and disdain single-family homes; they ride the subway (or take an Uber) because they barely know how to drive. Where their parents wanted green lawns and cul-de-sacs, today’s young Americans want walkable neighborhoods and local bars with plenty of craft beers on draft….

    So why has the “city-loving millennials” story gained so much traction? Kolko has a theory: As American cities have become safer and more expensive, they have become increasingly dominated by the affluent and well-educated — exactly the people who drive the media narrative.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/think-millennials-prefer-the-city-think-again/

  15. grim says:

    $1 sales are usually transfers between families or certain business transactions (private party into an LLC). The reason for the $1 is that there must be some financial consideration as part of the sales contract. It’s not a “sale” if there is no money exchanged. It needs that $1 to be a sale.

  16. The Great Pumpkin says:

    12- Doesn’t this make nj more competitive from a business standpoint? You have an endless supply of low wage immigrant labor. I know I’m beating a drum, but NJ is not going anywhere. We are just in a transitional period for our economy and I want to be here when she takes off. Just use logic, who will have more growth in the next 15 years? The states that have had significant growth already, or the economy that has been lagging behind? I would put my money on the economy that is lagging behind. Why? It has the highest potential for growth, since it has been held down for much longer. Add in the constant influx of immigrants and this state will be in great shape in time. Businesses will follow. They will use the highly educated workforce combined with the low cost immigration workforce to bring a competitive balance that many areas won’t have. Plus shipping costs will be much cheaper here with the advent of increasing the size of ships that can get into port newark/port elizabeth. I’m telling you, we should focus on infrastructure and education, and the rest will fall into place.

    “Planned improvements[edit]
    The height of ships serving the port is limited by the Bayonne Bridge over Kill Van Kull, a limitation that will become more serious when the Panama Canal expansion project opens, allowing bigger, new Panamax ships to reach the port from Asia. In 2012 the Port Authority announced plans to increase the height of the Bayonne Bridge’s roadway to 215 feet, which will solve the problem. The project is expected to cost around $1 billion.[3] Other improvements are expected to cost additional billions of dollars, including larger cranes, bigger railyard facilities, deeper channels, and expanded wharves. New cranes arrived in May 2014.[4]”

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I was referring to this post in my last post. Two comments went into moderation, which is why I put 12.

    Toxic Crayons says:
    March 27, 2015 at 9:10 am
    Immigrants filling the void as residents flee N.J. by the tens of thousands (Interactive Map)

    http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2015/03/as_tens_of_thousands_flee_nj_immigrants_are_filling_the_void.html#incart_river

  18. grim says:

    In rarer situations, it can be used to obscure the sales price on a transaction, but this is not at all common, is not a standard kind of transaction. Talking about a visible politician or celebrity involved. Easier to obscure a sale with an vague LLC name.

  19. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    New York Times Columnist Weighs in on Ivy League Mania

    For the past 30 years, I’ve been working as a journalist. For the past 20, I’ve been at The New York Times, where I’ve written about campaigns and presidents and politics, Greece and Italy and Israel, corporate leaders and movie directors and movie stars. Because of that I’ve been fortunate to meet standouts and overachievers in all walks of life.

    Not once have I paused and said to myself, “Wow! So many of them graduated from the Ivy League!”

    Because it isn’t true. Some of them did go to the country’s most highly selective institutions of higher learning. More didn’t. All in all they were distinguished by their drive, not by their diplomas, which didn’t fall into any pattern and which certainly didn’t support the narrative—which has grown ever louder over the last decade—that the Ivy League and its ilk have some sort of monopoly on, or at least special claim to, corner offices and top jobs in this country.

    But I mention it here, and I end with it, because what we desperately need to do in this country is change the focus of the discussion from where you go to college to how you use college.

    http://www.thecollegesolution.com/new-york-time-columnist-weighs-in-on-ivy-league-mania/

  20. jcer says:

    17. No it doesn’t make NJ any more business competitive, the port is the delivery point for finished goods, modern facilities are very mechanized and require minimal employees. The point of this is efficiency, it is expensive to ship goods from long beach or los angeles to the north east. If the ships can take the consumer goods directly from asia and drop them very close to the consumers it is more efficient, port newark has good rail and road links and there is already a large distribution network in place that receives a lot of goods by road, rail, sea and air which is here because of the large population. This should take some cross country trucks off the road and negate the need for the land bridge(rail network) which has largely been expensive and under delivered. This is to aid in bringing in cheap chinese junk directly to the north east market it is not so we can export anything of value that is produced here.

  21. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I stated this last year, along some others on this board. Every 20 s0mething I know that moved to an urban setting has moved to the suburbs as soon as they are done partying and ready to start a family. Every single individual that I know, has done this. Don’t know anyone that has stayed after starting a family.

    “The numbers tell a different story. Whether by choice or economic circumstance, young Americans are still more likely to leave the city for the suburbs than the other way around.”

  22. Bystander says:

    “The urbanization of New Jersey is a symptom of the transition between the Baby Boomer generation and the Millennials. The younger generation is coming to dominate the workforce and is seeking out different things from their parents, he said.”

    Sorry, did this guy just skip an entire generatiom? How about us people in late 30s and early 40s waiting for boomers to get the hell out of the way? We need 15 years of solid employment, wages and financial stability. A pile of shite was handed to X. Two major stock crashes, a housing bubble followed by unstable job market for 7 years. Can we recover before the 25 year old hipster gets his pony?

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    How does having access to a port that can handles the largest ships in the world, not give us a competitive advantage? Shipping costs money, being close to the port, gives you a competitive advantage in costs. Watch a lot of warehouses spring up as a result of this.

    Things change. China had their run. Manufacturing will return. The service economy is a failure. We will get back to our manufacturing roots because we have to. Just like wage inflation is inevitable, so is the return of manufacturing to the U.S. It will never return to its hey-day, but it will return. Why? Because the future of the country depends on it. The U.S. can not survive otherwise.

    jcer says:
    March 27, 2015 at 11:11 am
    17. No it doesn’t make NJ any more business competitive, the port is the delivery point for finished goods, modern facilities are very mechanized and require minimal employees. The point of this is efficiency, it is expensive to ship goods from long beach or los angeles to the north east. If the ships can take the consumer goods directly from asia and drop them very close to the consumers it is more efficient, port newark has good rail and road links and there is already a large distribution network in place that receives a lot of goods by road, rail, sea and air which is here because of the large population. This should take some cross country trucks off the road and negate the need for the land bridge(rail network) which has largely been expensive and under delivered. This is to aid in bringing in cheap chinese junk directly to the north east market it is not so we can export anything of value that is produced here.

  24. FKA 2010 Buyer says:

    I have a story to tell….

    Mistreated by a mortgage company? Now you can tell everyone about it.

    Move over, Yelp. The federal government’s top consumer agency has just begun allowing mortgage borrowers to vent publicly — in full narrative detail — about the bad experiences they’ve had with financial institutions.

    Say your mortgage-servicing company keeps harassing you with phone calls about the timeliness of your payments, even though you consistently send them within the grace period specified in the mortgage documents.

    Or say your bank is proceeding to foreclose, even though you’ve been deep in negotiations to modify the terms of your loan. Not only does the bank inexplicably keep losing the documents you send them, but every time you call to try to rectify the situation, you’re shifted to new personnel, none of whom seem competent or sympathetic. You want to tear your hair out, you’re so angry.

    So here’s the good news: Now you can rant and rave about this poor service for all to see. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is boosting the firepower of its complaint system, opening it up to include the narrative details that consumers are often eager to share if they just had a place to express them.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/mistreated-by-a-mortgage-company-now-you-can-tell-everyone-about-it/2015/03/25/91115a32-d24a-11e4-8fce-3941fc548f1c_story.html

  25. Juice Box says:

    re# 25 – Bla, Bla Bla tough on Wall St. Heard some other clap trap today about pay day loans and Wall St today.

    http://news.yahoo.com/obama-praises-payday-lender-rules-173655108.html;_ylt=A0LEVv0ygRVVGQIAHNQnnIlQ

    As if any of that matters.

    O already signed the roll back on the Dodd-Frank regulation “push out rule” on derivatives.

    The Casino is still open for business!

  26. Juice Box says:

    re # 23 – Can we recover before the 25 year old hipster gets his pony?

    Nope, the Millennial is going to be your boss.

  27. Juice Box says:

    Grim unmod # 26 please

  28. Wealthy Millenial says:

    Take two national averages and divide them by each other. Mm, tastes like rigorous statistical analysis.

  29. Wealthy Millenial says:

    “New Jersey residents are fleeing the state in droves, but the loss is primarily being offset by a continued influx of immigrants from other countries, without which the state’s population would be declining precipitously.”

    I love how everyone writing negatively about NJ population trends tries to paper over the racism at the heart of their arguments tho. “New Jersey’s population is declining precipitously!!! Well, it is if you only count white people like I do.”

    Wow, it’s almost as if a wealthy totally built up area might see incomes increase while rich households shrink! God forbid some guy from India renovate an abandoned house in Passaic…

  30. JJ says:

    I also see weird sales on rental vacation homes to kids.

    Dad at 55 buys a beach house for 400K, mainly rents it and does depreciation. At around 65 to 75 he “sells” beach house to kids(s), and price is value of house minus depreciation he took on house + improvements to house+ plus transactions costs.

    you see weird sales where a beach house now worth 500K is sold for 182k or something. Also a plus as sometimes not tagged as sale between relatives and you can use purchase price to grieve taxes.

  31. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What do movie directors and movie stars have to do with standouts from the ivy league?

    Some of the most dedicated, smartest, and hardest working individuals attend ivy league. How do I know? Almost every single overachiever I have met from my teenage years ended up in an ivy league setting. They truly are the best of the best. Sure a slacker in his teenage years can turn his life around later on, but stop beating on the ivy league grads. This guy is acting like they are nothing special, when in fact, they really are special. They have done everything right from day 1, that’s how they were able to get into an ivy league school. Does this journalist understand what it takes to get into the ivy league? Why is he trying to take that away from these individuals? What’s his motivation for bashing the ivy league? Jealousy?

    “For the past 30 years, I’ve been working as a journalist. For the past 20, I’ve been at The New York Times, where I’ve written about campaigns and presidents and politics, Greece and Italy and Israel, corporate leaders and movie directors and movie stars. Because of that I’ve been fortunate to meet standouts and overachievers in all walks of life.

    Not once have I paused and said to myself, “Wow! So many of them graduated from the Ivy League!””

  32. POS cape says:

    22

    Agreed. When they tire of the hassle of parking a car, or of not having one, and no washer/dryer, no yard, and zero storage, they’ll come back to the ‘burbs. However what could keep them there is the mass elimination of long term (30+ years) jobs in one company. Sometimes it is better to rent.

  33. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Interesting read if you have some time.

    “In a way, then, one could say that slavery too involves a separation of
    domestic sphere and workplace – except in this case the separation is
    geographic. Human labor produced in Anatolia is realized in a plantation
    in Italy; human labor produced in what’s now Gabon is realized in Brazil
    or Jamaica. In this sense, capitalism could be seen as yet another case of
    introjection. This might seem far-fetched; but in fact the structural similarities
    are actually quite striking.
    The institution of slavery is normally seen to derive from war. If the
    victor in war spares the life of a captive, he thereby acquires an absolute
    right to it. The result is often described as a ‘social death’ (e.g. Patterson,
    1982): the new slaves are spared literal execution, but henceforth they are
    also shorn of all previous status within their former communities, they have
    no right to social relations, no right to kinship or citizenship, or any social
    relation in fact other than their relation of dependence to a master who
    thus has the right to order them to do pretty much anything he wants. Now,
    there have been cases where this is all there is to it, but in the overwhelming
    majority of known historical cases, this process is mediated by the
    market. Normally, one is first captured, kidnapped or perhaps reduced to
    slavery by judicial decision; and then one is sold to foreigners; or perhaps
    one’s impoverished or debt-ridden parents sell one off directly, but at any rate, money changes hands. Afterwards, slaves remain marketable commodities
    that can be sold again and again. Once purchased, they are entirely at
    the orders of their employers. In this sense, as historian Yann MoulierBoutang
    (1998) has pointed out, they represent precisely what Marx called
    ‘abstract labor’: what one buys when one buys a slave is the sheer capacity
    to work, which is also what an employer acquires when he hires a laborer.
    It’s of course this relation of command that causes free people in most
    societies to see wage labor as analogous to slavery, and hence to try as much
    as possible to avoid it.
    We can observe the following traits shared by slavery and capitalism:
    (1) Both rely on a separation of the place of social (re)production of the labor force, and the
    place where that labor-power is realized in production – in the case of slavery, this is
    effected by transporting laborers bought or stolen from one society into
    another one; in capitalism, by separating the domestic sphere (the sphere of
    social production) from the workplace. In other words, what is effected by
    physical distance in one is effected by the anonymity of the market in the other.
    (2) The transfer is effected through exchanging human powers for money: either by
    selling workers, or hiring them (essentially, allowing them to rent themselves).
    (3) One effect of that transfer is ‘social death’, in the sense that the community ties,
    kinship relations and so forth that shaped the worker are, in principle,
    supposed to have no relevance in the workplace. This is true in capitalism too,
    at least in principle: a worker’s ethnic identity, social networks, kin ties and the
    rest should not have any effect on hiring or how one is treated in the office or
    shop floor, though of course in reality this isn’t true.
    (4) Most critically, the financial transaction in both cases produces abstract labor,
    which is pure creative potential. This is created by the effects of command.
    Abstract labor is the sheer power of creation, to do anything at all. Everyone
    might be said to control abstract labor in their own person, but in order to
    extend it further, one has to place others in a position where they will be effectively
    an extension of one’s will, completely at one’s orders. Slavery, military
    service and various forms of corvée are the main forms in which this has manifested
    itself historically. Obviously, this too is something of an unrealized ideal:
    this is in fact precisely the area of most labor struggle. But it’s worthy of note
    that feudalism (or manorialism if you prefer) tends towards exactly the
    opposite principle: the duties owed by liege to lord were very specific and intricately
    mapped out.
    (5) A constant ideological accompaniment of this sort of arrangement is an ideology
    of freedom. As Moses Finley first pointed out (1980), most societies take it for
    granted that no human is completely free or completely dependent, rather, all
    have different degrees of rights and obligations. The modern ideal of political
    liberty, in fact, has historically tended to emerge from societies with extreme
    forms of chattel slavery (Pericles’ Athens, Jefferson’s Virgina), essentially as a
    point of contrast. Medieval jurists, for example, assumed every right was
    someone else’s obligation and vice versa; the modern doctrine of liberty as a
    property of humans one could possess was developed precisely in Lisbon and
    Antwerp, the cities that were at the center of the slave trade at the time; and
    the most common objection to this new notion of liberty at the time was that
    if one owns one’s freedom, it should then also be possible to sell it (Tuck,
    1979). Hence the doctrine of personal liberty – outside the workplace – or even
    the notion of freedom of contract, that one so often encounters in societies
    dominated by wage labor, does not really mean we are dealing with a fundamentally
    different sort of system. It means we are dealing with a transformation.
    We are dealing with the same terms, differently arranged, so that rather than
    one class of people being able to imagine themselves as absolutely ‘free’
    because others are absolutely unfree, we have the same individuals moving
    back and forth between these two positions over the course of the week and
    working day.
    So, in effect, a transfer effected just once, by sale, under a regime of slavery
    is transformed into one that is repeated over and over again under capitalism.”

    http://www.faculty.fairfield.edu/dcrawford/graeber_2006a.pdf

  34. Bystander says:

    Juice,

    Not likely. The definition of hipster is someone who found grandpa’s wardrobe but not his work ethic.

  35. Toxic Crayons says:

    Perfect description….and my nomination for post of the day

    Bystander says:
    March 27, 2015 at 1:41 pm
    Juice,

    Not likely. The definition of hipster is someone who found grandpa’s wardrobe but not his work ethic.

  36. JJ says:

    NY Jets Fan
    Someone who is unable to afford Giants tickets. Usually because they are uneducated and need their money to pay the mortgage on their trailer home.
    Did you have any interest in the Super Bowl this year. “No i am a NY Jets Fan”

  37. JJ says:

    Hipster’s can’t be defined because then they’d fit in a category, and thus be too mainstream.

  38. JJ says:

    My new term for folks underwater on mortgages “umopapisdn”

    It’s the word upside down, upside down.

  39. jcer says:

    24 believe it or not we are already pretty well saturated with distribution facilities, where the goods are simply being trucked from other ports very far away, this gives the port an advantage and makes nearby distribution facilities slightly more attractive, good for the port authority, good for the warehouse owners, good for the warehouse tenants not doing too much for anyone else. NJ has a big problem with development, the cost structure is out of whack and the DEP is obstructionist, most of the available land is unsuitable for development and parcels that have the size and road access to be desirable were most likely former chemical plants and a far too polluted to be economically viable. This is a case where you have no clue, most of the so called “developers” who have built near the port really have no clue and had wholly unrealistic projected rents and are not doing so great on those projects. There is plenty of available space on the turnpike corridor which for the most part has kept rents down and PA is not so far away and is generally FAR more accommodating to the tenants and developers. Very few people know the intricacies of that business in NJ and even fewer have the stomach and resources to get these projects done, note that Prologis a company that builds distribution centers in Continental Europe has large had to acquire their portfolio in NJ largely because it is so hard to do development here. The distribution space in NJ has been robust for 40 years and that isn’t changing, this just puts some extra money in the pockets of some developers and especially of those who made large speculative bets in very close proximity to the port, it will also keep the tenants here. From an environmental perspective it makes sense, from a not losing your distribution business to the south it makes sense, but it isn’t going to drive growth.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well said. The doom and gloom predictions for jersey crack me up. Sure, nj will fall of the face of the map and become a dirt poor state (sarcasm). No business will set up shop in the most densely populated state in the nation. You would have to be an idiot to do that.

    Nj is strictly going through a transitional period. I can’t wait to see what industry takes up the locations that the pharmaceuticals are abandoning. Don’t know who, but I know someone will. It’s too lucrative of an area for someone not to take advantage of. Nj has so many advantages, but people only like to focus on the negatives. Bring your negativity to some other state. We only want forward looking positive individuals, they are the difference makers.

    “I love how everyone writing negatively about NJ population trends tries to paper over the racism at the heart of their arguments tho. “New Jersey’s population is declining precipitously!!! Well, it is if you only count white people like I do.”

    Wow, it’s almost as if a wealthy totally built up area might see incomes increase while rich households shrink! God forbid some guy from India renovate an abandoned house in Passaic…”

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    You are definitely a brilliant individual and know your stuff.

    I think you are truly discounting the ability for nj to change and adapt to a new economy. The current mess of this state will force us to adapt quicker than any other state. Our state will be making major changes in the next 15 years. We will be at the forefront in due time once again.

    Telling you, they wrote of jersey back in the day when all the factories left. Said the same thing about silk city ( paterson) and the entire northern manufacturing powerhouse we once were. Guess what, pharmaceuticals came in and made us even stronger than before. The same thing will happen again. I don’t know what industry will come, but someone will. A brilliant business mind will automatically see the advantages to setting up shop in a location like jersey.

    Taxes will become competitive in time. These other states that are currently much lower than ours will be rising much faster than ours. Why? Ours are already high, they can’t raise it anymore. This will cause them to get creative and will result in an advantage for us down the road. Changes are a coming, count on it.

    jcer says:
    March 27, 2015 at 2:14 pm
    24 believe it or not we are already pretty well saturated with distribution facilities, where the goods are simply being trucked from other ports very far away, this gives the port an advantage and makes nearby distribution facilities slightly more attractive, good for the port authority, good for the warehouse owners, good for the warehouse tenants not doing too much for anyone else. NJ has a big problem with development, the cost structure is out of whack and the DEP is obstructionist, most of the available land is unsuitable for development and parcels that have the size and road access to be desirable were most likely former chemical plants and a far too polluted to be economically viable. This is a case where you have no clue, most of the so called “developers” who have built near the port really have no clue and had wholly unrealistic projected rents and are not doing so great on those projects. There is plenty of available space on the turnpike corridor which for the most part has kept rents down and PA is not so far away and is generally FAR more accommodating to the tenants and developers. Very few people know the intricacies of that business in NJ and even fewer have the stomach and resources to get these projects done, note that Prologis a company that builds distribution centers in Continental Europe has large had to acquire their portfolio in NJ largely because it is so hard to do development here. The distribution space in NJ has been robust for 40 years and that isn’t changing, this just puts some extra money in the pockets of some developers and especially of those who made large speculative bets in very close proximity to the port, it will also keep the tenants here. From an environmental perspective it makes sense, from a not losing your distribution business to the south it makes sense, but it isn’t going to drive growth.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Even if it all goes to hell and collapses, nj will rise from the ashes. Anyone writing of this state is clearly not looking at the situation with an open mind. They are biased and only see the negative factors with jersey. Unable to see the true potential of this state.

  43. jcer says:

    44. NJ has and has always had it’s greatest asset….location. My point is that a dysfunctional government prevents this state from reaching it’s potential and that is why employers are leaving in droves. The insane taxes and failed welfare state mentality make this a challenging place to do business, yet a lot of business is conducted here because of the location. The access to capital markets, the northeast corridor, the metropolis of NYC and all of the people with lots of money concentrated into a small area make this an attractive place to be but at what cost…when my warehouse floor space is 8 bucks a foot on the turnpike corridor(Edison, mercer county, etc), 11 next to the port and 5 in PA that’s an awful lot of money on building that can be a million square feet, saving 3 million bucks a year is significant then there is the fact that the employees cost less, the power costs less and the other costs in the net lease will be lower in PA, the cost of moving the containers 120 miles only to move it back to distribute it eats into that savings. That is just an example but it effects other businesses as well. The politicians are arrogant not quite as bad as NYC but close in that they act as if the businesses have no choice but to be there when there is some opportunity for moving part or all of your business to a jurisdiction that is more favorable.

    I’m by no means writing Jersey off, we’ve made tons of money here but the state is missing opportunities. We are losing core industries and not making it up. I for one think NJ’s urban cities are good places for tech incubators to be, NJ at one point was at the forefront of telecom, the transistor was invented here, UNIX was written here, VOIP was born here…..today it is all gone NJ is in the dustbin of tech. Why are all the tech companies in NYC, why is silicon alley in Brooklyn? It should it not be be in Jersey City, Hoboken, and Newark… but it is not. Our politicians are not forward thinking enough, are crooked, hence why the only development is for banks and residential real estate. In talking real estate distribution has been fabulous in NJ and there are no signs that it will change, where as the suburban office market has been terrible which is telling. You are making the same mistake our myopic politicians do which is to think and to say they have to be here, they won’t leave, we have the best location so they’ll pay what ever. The truth is more complex and at some point death by a thousands cuts makes it more attractive to move your business elsewhere. The taxation and over regulation by largely corrupt politicians on the take are really hindering NJ’s ability to have economic growth. Going forward NJ is what it is…a bedroom community.

  44. homeboken says:

    If given the choice to relocate to Dallas, Denver or stay in NYC – Which would you pick. Two children – just starting their school aged years.

  45. Nomad says:

    Looks like the Saudi’s are thinking about starting a nuclear weapons program:

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/26/politics/saudi-open-to-nuclear-bomb/index.html

  46. JJ says:

    Steers, Queers or Potheads

    homeboken says:
    March 27, 2015 at 3:31 pm
    If given the choice to relocate to Dallas, Denver or stay in NYC – Which would you pick. Two children – just starting their school aged years.

  47. ccb223 says:

    If you can afford it my vote is NYC – best city in the world as far as I am concerned. So it all depends on how much $$$ you’re working with…private school in NY is ridiculous though.

    Hear that Denver is awesome and Dallas sounds terrible…would stay away from Texas but that’s a personal proclivity.

  48. Libturd at home says:

    Austin is very cool.

  49. Wealthy Millenial says:

    Can’t be bullish on Jersey all the time, until they gentrify Newark there will still be losers here. But I feel secure in my NYC-adjacent palace even if that pharma campus in Nutley sits fallow for a couple decades.

    I took a drive through Califon the other day. Wouldn’t mind retiring in 10 years in some .75ac spruced up saltbox in one mountain valley or another out in that part of town. Just too damn far from Brooklyn to pull the trigger now. Gotta snap one up on the cheap when the 30-year fixed hits 8% and all the buyers vanish.

  50. Liquor Luge says:

    Fka (25)-

    I’ll believe the mortgage bankster complaint center is effective when Tangelo is doing a perp walk on the 5 PM news.

  51. Liquor Luge says:

    Millenial (30)-

    NJ wealth creators- and their wealth- getting the fcuk out.

    Immigrants, poverty, demand on public services moving in.

    That is all.

  52. Liquor Luge says:

    Good to see the oxygen to Punkinhead’s brain has now been restricted for a really long time.

  53. Liquor Luge says:

    Millenial (52)-

    Chances are good that the proper spacing between your eyes will identify you as an outsider to the Califon set.

  54. Liquor Luge says:

    Better learn either the guitar or banjo part to Dueling Banjos before moving to Califon.

  55. Fast Eddie says:

    Immigrants, poverty, demand on public services moving in.

    The writing is on the wall – couldn’t agree more. It’s the main reason I did a cold reversal on looking in certain areas of Bergen County. The towns I knew as a kid are quickly changing. The whole state really is becoming a portal for the planet’s transients.

  56. Wealthy Millenial says:

    That’s cool I’m hill people myself.

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