Jobs Day

From MarketWatch:

Here’s what to watch in the July jobs report

Another round of solid hiring gains in July won’t guarantee that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month — but a good number could set the oven to preheat.

Even if job creation falls short in July and wages don’t budge, however, the Fed is unlikely to take a chill pill unless the economy takes a dramatic turn for the worse. So far there’s no sign of that.

The U.S. is expected to show 220,000 new nonfarm jobs in July when the government on Friday issues the employment report, according to economists polled by MarketWatch. That would fall below June’s preliminary 223,000 reading, but be slightly above the 208,000 average in the first six months of the year.

The midyear jobs report is one of the hardest to adjust for season hiring patterns because of large shifts in employment in the auto industry and education, among other things. Reported job creation in July is the second weakest of any month since the recovery began more than six years ago. And employment growth during the month has undershot the annual average since 2010.

The unemployment rate seems very low at just 5.3% and economists expect it to remain there. But the official rate leaves out nearly 17 million people who’ve either gotten too discouraged to look for work or who can only find part-time jobs.

In June, for example, the broader U6 jobless rate that includes “involuntary” part-timers and discouraged workers stood at 10.5%. While it’s been falling steadily, the rate is sharply higher compared to the 8.4% average that prevailed shortly before the Great Recession.

The Fed said it wants to see “some further improvement” in the labor market before raising a key short-term interest rate, now near zero, for the first time since 2006. A U6 rate tumbling toward 10% or below would be one such sign.

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Recovery. Bookmark the permalink.

47 Responses to Jobs Day

  1. Mike says:

    Good Morning New Jersey

  2. Grim says:

    Christie – better than expected
    Kasich – biggest surprise
    Rubio – carried himself the best
    Huckabee – idiot
    Carson – too little too late
    Trump – go home
    Walker – who?
    Cruz – slimy
    Bush – solid but we don’t need another one
    Paul – poor show

  3. JJ says:

    Trump vs. Hillary is the whole race.

  4. JJ says:

    futures down,treasures up 2bp on jobs report. Could be 7 days in a row down for Dow.

    As some point sharks smell blood in water and we will get a bounce

  5. leftwing says:

    Nice summary grim.

    Paul wasn’t horrible but on a relative basis he needed to punch above his weight and distinguish himself from the crowd. He didn’t.

    Who the he11 is Carson?

    I will leave this country if Huckabee gets elected. In addition to the most inane abortion view I’ve ever heard he wants to eliminate the income tax and go to a VAT. Unbelievable.

    GOP badly needs to stop fighting brawls they lost. It’s life. You lost. Pick up and move on. Re-strategize around the new reality and win some skirmishes on the side to make a bad perceived situation better.

    Speaking specifically of the candidates still seeking to ban abortion (Huckabee) and repeal ACA (a few). The horse has left the barn.

    I think there is a real window for one of the “straight talkers” to gain votes by saying just that. We lost this fight, acknowledge it, and we will work to make the prevailing law of the land *better*, not act like a bunch of petulant five year olds.

  6. FKA 2010 Buyers says:

    The Governors (Christie, Kasich, Walker, and Bush) showed the best. Really like Kasich, seems like a good candidate. Heard Carly did good on the undercard.

    Was surprised Carlson and Huckabee even stayed on the stage. I would have faked something to excuse myself from further embarrassment.

  7. joyce says:

    LW,
    The fair tax is not a VAT and he’s been advocating that for about a decade. If implemented as it’s currently written (which is a big if), it would be a big improvement over the income tax system we currently have.

  8. grim says:

    Against Hillary – Kasich would do best.

  9. homeboken says:

    My overall take away from the debate was that it was a good first step – Not too much slamming of opponents.

    While I am not sure who I would support of this bunch, if any, I did find the moderator panel to be very dissapointing. There was a very clear and targeted agenda to attempt to marginalize Trump. Trying to cast him off as a side-show, which he may well prove to be. But at this point, he has real numbers that need to be taken seriously. I think the moderators attacks (as opposed to questions) are only fueling the Trump persona. The GOP desperately needs to thin the field, and get behind a handful of candidates that can actually beat HC. IMO:
    Trump – like it or not he has the noticeable lead right now.
    Rubio – solid performance, young though, maybe next cycle.
    Fiorina – The GOP version of HC. Rich, priveleged. Good luck attacking her on womans issues.
    Christie – keep him in the fray to slam HC and eventually bow out.
    Bush – The media won’t let him out of the race.
    Kascih – Wildcard, if he can build momentum there may be something here.

    Everyone else – off the bus.

  10. grim says:

    There was a very clear and targeted agenda to attempt to marginalize Trump.

    Agree, it came off as childish.

  11. grim says:

    Republicans need a candidate that independents will vote for, not a candidate that republicans would vote for.

    Based on the Trump polling, I think the biggest thing that Republicans are upset over isn’t Trump, it’s that Trump illustrates that Republicans aren’t who/what the Republicans thought they were.

    http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/drudge-poll-donald-trump-wins/2015/08/07/id/666039/

    Billionaire Donald Trump is the winner of the Drudge Report Poll taken following the first Republican presidential debate.

    Texas Sen. Ted Cruz came in second place in the online poll of more than 190,000 Drudge Report visitors, which was taken directly following the debate on Thursday night. The poll only included the candidates who participated in the Fox News debate with the top 10 candidates.

  12. joyce says:

    I agree. Though, I will never vote for a D or R (maybe never vote at all again). If Trump would go a few more steps calling out the corrupted politicians to his right and left, that would mean something to me. If he would actually answer the questions about ‘when he became a republican, etc’ by saying… the parties own everything, so I have to run under one of their labels. Lastly, and of course, he needs to actually answer questions rather then do what he always does.

    grim says:
    August 7, 2015 at 9:50 am
    Republicans need a candidate that independents will vote for, not a candidate that republicans would vote for.

    Based on the Trump polling, I think the biggest thing that Republicans are upset over isn’t Trump, it’s that Trump illustrates that Republicans aren’t who the Republicans thought they were.

  13. homeboken says:

    11 Grim – I agree. The questions about opinion changes and “When did you become a republican?” illustrate that point clearly. Just the same as Trump not pledging to support the eventual GOP candidate or refuse to run a 3rd party. Trump made the biggest statement of the night in the first 2 minutes. His hand raising basically states –

    “The GOP is a vehicle to the WH” That’s it. If that vehcile has different driver than me, then I reserve the right to take my own car.

    What Trump really wants to say, but can’t this early as he fears losing the nomination, is “I don’t care about the GOP or the Dems. They are the same exact thing with a different name.” “I have some opinions that are liberal, some conservative and some moderate”

    Guess what – So does the rest of the country. I really like the way the stage is set for a guy like Trump to blur the party lines this cycle or pull back the curtain and state to the national audience “Red or Blue – Bush or Clinton – It doesn’t matter, they are the SAME THING.” Vote for what is different if you want change.

  14. grim says:

    That said, I really think that the Republicans are going to lose this one.

  15. Ragnar says:

    I thought Trump marginalized himself. Does anyone really want a president bragging about buying and selling politicians, “using the laws” to his advantage in bankruptcy court?

    Ben Carson is one of those religious guys on TV all the time. So is Huckabee. That’s why they have just enough ratings to get into early debates. Carson is unlikely to last, and I hope Huckabee as well.

  16. Ragnar says:

    Kasich seems unlikely to do much. His message is “Jesus wants a welfare state”. I hope that doesn’t resonate.

    Walker: yes I really think a fertilized sp3rm is more important than a woman’s health and her ambitions in life.

    Rubio: Me too, but maybe I won’t actually do anything about it. PS, I look like a model for America’s future. But he spoke fairly well for a guy without a TV show.

  17. Ragnar says:

    Cruz: I’m a principled man, here are 10 principles, if you don’t like any one of them don’t vote for me. Ok, I don’t like those ones that involve those things your imaginary friend tells you make laws about, so I won’t.

    Paul: hoarse shouting turns off the chicks. I’m with you on the Bill of Rights, but don’t you know 90% of the country doesn’t know what’s actually in the bill of rights? Needs to craft a coherent easily grasped message that people outside his circle can understand.

    Christie: Loudmouth who lies about taking a 5 year vacation as governor. Evades NJ’s financial implosion. Trying to grab Ron Paul’s 5% like a guy eyeing a plate of breakfast sausages, causing them to both look bad.

  18. homeboken says:

    14 – agree there too. The political machine behind HC is very smart here. They do not have to fend off the internal fight (save Bernie Sanders) so they lay in wait. Let the GOP bloody each other and spend all there time talking about HC. She doesn’t even need to acknowledge the GOP at this point, and shouldn’t need to for another 6 months. By Spring 2016 – her national push will be well-funded, well-cooridinated and untarnished by internal mud-slinging. If she can get through the whole email-scandal and future red-flags as they get raised, she should win.

  19. Ragnar says:

    Megyn Kelly is the big winner in this debate. Intelligent, tough, pretty.
    Getting questioned on their vulnerabilities rather than being tossed softballs was shocking for some of these politicians.
    Kelly will likely have more fame than Trump over the next 10 years, which is what’s really killing Trump today. Finally had a woman trample him rather than the opposite.

  20. homeboken says:

    I think the bragging about buying politicians needs further explanation from Trump –

    “I have bought and sold politicians. I pay and when I call they are there for me” “I have done this for Red, Blue and even my current GOP competition”

    Great Donald now what? The takeaway should be – “I am being honest with you how these career politicians work. This is how they will continue to work. They are whores for the 1%.” “You may not agree with business tactics called political contributions, but I admit to sending money to these guys/gals.” “In exchange for this $, I get special treatment, that YOU Mr. Joe Sixpack, have zero access to” “Do you want that in the future?”

    It needs further word-smithing to turn that message into a vote for Donald message, but the point is clear. “I was a john that bought these whores, that doesn’t change the fact they are still whores.”

  21. jcer says:

    I will give the Donald credit for saying what intelligent people know….politicians are bought and paid for on all teams. Nobody else had the cajones to say what he was saying which is I’m a business man and if I don’t pay protection money to the political racket my business will suffer. It’s not ever to garner advantage but to simply conduct business you need to pay, you can also out and out buy politicians to get an advantage.

  22. FKA 2010 Buyers says:

    [11] Grim

    Republicans need a candidate that independents will vote for, not a candidate that republicans would vote for.

    Based on the Trump polling, I think the biggest thing that Republicans are upset over isn’t Trump, it’s that Trump illustrates that Republicans aren’t who/what the Republicans thought they were.
    —-

    That says it all. Saw something on Twitter that there were something like 16+ million Hispanic voters … Immigration will front and center.

    No that is clearly what the Republican party is. Remember, this is the party that put Sarah Palin on the ballet as VP. Sarah who’s foreign policy is based on her experience looking out at Russia from her house. Outside of the show Beverly Hillbillies, I can’t think of a good analogy. You have the duality of those that are squarely middle income (definitely upper income), self starters, believe in accountability and then you have the vast majority or the base in the middle states who are zealots of some sort who God speaks to them.

  23. Ragnar says:

    Even then Trump is blowing smoke. Most of his personal corruption is local rather than national. Had he been a businessman fighting corruption and regulatory overreach, he could make this message work for him, as the guy who is going to clean up. But Trump is like a spy caught in a double-cross, now asking for the chance to triple-cross. Nobody trusts a guy like that.

  24. homeboken says:

    BLS reports that 93.7mm Americans (of working age) are not working or not actively seeking work.

    US population appx 320mm
    19% of population is aged 0-14; 14.5% of population is 65+. So 33.5% of Americans are not working age.

    So there are what, 220mm working aged Americans and 42% (93.7mm) of them are not working or looking for work?

    Am I calculating this wrong?

  25. Alex says:

    24-

    Those numbers look correct.

    What we have is an unemployment situation going from bad to worse. Our Country is hanging by a thread. Meanwhile, illegal immigrants continue to pour in.

  26. anon (the good one) says:

    @BernieSanders:

    The very rich get richer, everyone else poorer. And Republicans who take campaign money from billionaires have nothing significant to say.

  27. anon (the good one) says:

    @EwaFan:
    @mtaibbi This debate just cured my four-hour erection…

  28. anon (the good one) says:

    @billmaher:

    What about pimps and prostitutes? Huckabee wants to fund social security on their backs?
    Could work, they’re already on their backs

  29. Anon E. Moose says:

    Grim [25];

    Holy damn they got ripped off:

    Did they ever. I can’t imagine how they spent $50k on that. Where did the money go? The Paterson-built laminate (read, plastic) fronted vanity? Three glass shower panes, regardless how “custom”?

    I laughed at the picture over the shower glass obviously taken while standing on the toilet. Weird choices they made. Funny that they knocked down the toilet wall. First thing I’d do if I reno-ed my master bath would be to put a water closet around the toilet.

  30. anon (the good one) says:

    @BernieSanders:

    Social Security can pay every penny owed for next 18 yrs. Lift the cap on taxable income and it’ll be solvent for decades.
    #DebateWithBernie

  31. FKA 2010 Buyers says:

    No one shot, no helicopters

    Bounty hunters mistakenly target Phoenix police chief’s house

    It was a case of mistaken identity worthy of reality television. And it could have had deadly consequences.

    Eleven bounty hunters looking for a fugitive Tuesday night mistakenly targeted the home of Phoenix police Chief Joseph Yahner while following a tip they received via social media, police said.

    http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix/2015/08/05/newslocalphoenixbreakingbondsmen-trespassed-chief–police/31184159/

  32. Anon E. Moose says:

    Troll [31];

    Lift the cap on taxable income and it’ll be solvent for decades.

    You mean ‘Soak the rich!’ What a novel idea, I wonder why it hasn’t be proposed before?

    As the founders conceived this country: “[D]irect Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers,”

    You clearly know better then them, seeing how well Soci@lism has fared around the globe. How are things in Venezuela, anyway?

    So if your dear leader Bernie is going to soak the rich (even more), do the rich get one vote per tax dollar paid?

  33. Anon E. Moose says:

    The Economist: Time to Fix Patents

    One radical answer would be to abolish patents altogether—indeed, in 19th-century Britain, that was this newspaper’s preference.

    I suppose we should be thankful for “moderation”. So, dear (paywall-using) Economist(.com), surely you’re equally in favor of gutting the Copyright system? Let’s discuss…

  34. anon (the good one) says:

    @nytopinion:
    If you listen closely, all the Republican candidates are talking the same nonsense as Trump. @NYTimeskrugman:

    “For while it’s true that Mr. Trump is, fundamentally, an absurd figure, so are his rivals.

    If you pay attention to what any one of them is actually saying, as opposed to how he says it, you discover incoherence and extremism every bit as bad as anything Mr. Trump has to offer.

    And that’s not an accident: Talking nonsense is what you have to do to get anywhere in today’s Republican Party.”

  35. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Soak the rich? So every time we use the poor’s tax contributions for the military (which benefits the rich, not poor) to defend big business, we are “soaking the poor”?

    Every time we give a tax break to the “rich big businesses”, who pays for that? That’s right, “soaking the poor”.

    Every time we use tax payer money to build a stadium for some billionaire, we are “soaking the poor”. I can go on and on.

    Our govt is social!st, just like every other country. If you share something, it’s social!st.

    So why did you use Venezuela as an example? Their dire position has nothing with social!sm and everything to do with economic payback for kicking out the elite. The U.S. supported a failed coup to get the elite back their power, but it failed. Ever since they have been getting clobbered by economic warfare. So once again, what does social!sm have to do with Venezuela’s current dilemma?

    Bernie is coming, too much corruption has paved the way for his rise to president. He is getting more powerful by the day as each new citizen learns about him and his message. He brings “true change” to the table.

    Anon E. Moose says:
    August 7, 2015 at 1:53 pm
    Troll [31];

    Lift the cap on taxable income and it’ll be solvent for decades.

    You mean ‘Soak the rich!’ What a novel idea, I wonder why it hasn’t be proposed before?

    As the founders conceived this country: “[D]irect Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers,”

    You clearly know better then them, seeing how well Soci@lism has fared around the globe. How are things in Venezuela, anyway?

    So if your dear leader Bernie is going to soak the rich (even more), do the rich get one vote per tax dollar paid?

  36. NJT says:

    #17 – [Rags] “like a guy eyeing a plate of breakfast sausages, causing them to both look bad.”.

    Thanks for the memory. I laugh about it, now.

  37. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    [36] pumpkin

    “So once again, what does social!sm have to do with Venezuela’s current dilemma?”

    Uh, everything?

    Remember I said that if I could have made the same as everyone else as a bus driver, I would have done that? Nope, I changed my mind. I would have gone for financial analyst. Because there is apparently very little thinking involved and you have lots of free time.

  38. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    [36] pumpkin

    “So once again, what does social!sm have to do with Venezuela’s current dilemma?”

    Uh, everything?

    Remember I said that if I could have made the same as everyone else working as a bus driver, I would have done that? Nope, I changed my mind. I would have gone for financial analyst. Because there is apparently very little thinking involved and you have lots of free time.

  39. The Great Pumpkin says:

    My wage inflation prediction by 2017/2018 is looking pretty good.

    “Friday’s labor-market report showed that the number of full-time U.S. jobs as a share of total employment rose to 81.7 percent, the highest level since November 2008. For those worried (including not a few presidential candidates) that this economic recovery has been one that’s created only low-quality jobs, this should be really good news.

    Even so, the share of full-time workers remains below its peak during the last cycle of 83.2 percent in October 2007.

    The pool of Americans working part-time for economic reasons — such as not being able to find a job with more hours — fell last month by 180,000 to 6.3 million. That was the lowest level since September 2008. Additionally, the number of people working part-time for noneconomic reasons — going to school, taking care of family, etc. — plunged by 589,000, the biggest decline since June 2012.

    More from Bloomberg.com: Unintended Consequence of Wal-Mart’s Raise: Unhappy Workers

    At the same time, the number of employees on the payrolls of temporary work services also fell, declining 8,900, the report showed. All of these statistics combine to paint a picture of a “shift to full-time work,” economists led by Derek Holt at Scotiabank in Toronto wrote in a note to clients.

    The rest of the details of the jobs report were also solid. Overall, payrolls climbed by 215,000 in July and the unemployment rate held at a seven-year low of 5.3 percent. ”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/full-time-jobs-u-just-134749715.html

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    August is a dead month for me. I can’t find time in a day to post? I have to be working every single minute of my day?

    Social!sm has everything to do with it? How? How come the other social!zed countries are not in their position? They are getting economically slammed for kicking out the elite in the power positions. Are you denying this? They have tons of oil and should be fine, but of course they have been smashed by economic warfare just like Cuba. You don’t tell the whole story, you leave out important details.

    I’m not pro Cuba or Venezuela either. I don’t support military dictatorships which is what they really are. They are the definition of “Animal Farm”. Quit blaming social!sm on their problems.

    Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:
    August 7, 2015 at 5:40 pm
    [36] pumpkin

    “So once again, what does social!sm have to do with Venezuela’s current dilemma?”

    Uh, everything?

    Remember I said that if I could have made the same as everyone else working as a bus driver, I would have done that? Nope, I changed my mind. I would have gone for financial analyst. Because there is apparently very little thinking involved and you have lots of free time.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Any economic system can work. The only thing that matters is the type of leaders running the show. If they do right by the people, things will be okay. If they are corrupt and filled with greed, the economic system is doomed. Of course you will never look at like this, too obsessed with the type of system, when the leadership is what really matters….not the type of economic system. I’m not including “commun!sm” in this talk either. Commu!ism can never be taken seriously…..you would need a populace that is 100% honest and intent on doing what’s right for the people. Never will happen.

  42. The Great Pumpkin says:

    40- Comment from that article that I thought is worth sharing, since this board carries a similar sentiment about this issue.

    ” A SCANDAL YOU’RE NOT HEARING ABOUT
    THE H-1B AMERICAN WORKER REPLACEMENT PROGRAM
    What do Enron, WorldCom, Qwest, and Tyco have in common? If you answered, “putting one over on their employees and shareholders with dishonest accounting practices,” you are only partially right. Accounting irregularities are only the tip of the iceberg that the American worker should find objectionable in the brave new corporate world of Enron and beyond. While the media has reported extensively on the guilt of these companies in their inflated accounting and corporate valuations, they have ignored another more long term and destructive practice engaged in by these and other American corporations”

  43. the Midnite Pumkin Pie says:

    Pumkin, Ragnar’s Randian Utopia and Communism don’t and will never work, because as Ceasar tells Brutus – “the fault dear Brutus lies not in the stars, but on us as we are the underlings”. In short humans are azzh*l3s.

    Communist forget, people are not really going to share their goodies and are going to cheat, bribe, kill to keep their goodies.

    Randians forget, people are jealous and will come at you with a machete, gun or whatever when you are being a pompous selfish pr1k.

    Both ideologies on polar opposite ends need “force”; lots of “work should set you free gitmos” , statsi, firing squad, boots to throat “force” to make it barely operational.

  44. The Great Pumpkin says:

    “Change takes place because people struggle”-Bernie Sanders

  45. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well said. You get it!

    the Midnite Pumkin Pie says:
    August 7, 2015 at 6:20 pm
    Pumkin, Ragnar’s Randian Utopia and Communism don’t and will never work, because as Ceasar tells Brutus – “the fault dear Brutus lies not in the stars, but on us as we are the underlings”. In short humans are azzh*l3s.

    Communist forget, people are not really going to share their goodies and are going to cheat, bribe, kill to keep their goodies.

    Randians forget, people are jealous and will come at you with a machete, gun or whatever when you are being a pompous selfish pr1k.

    Both ideologies on polar opposite ends need “force”; lots of “work should set you free gitmos” , statsi, firing squad, boots to throat “force” to make it barely operational.

  46. Marilyn says:

    #33 well written and I agree.

Comments are closed.