Which way is up? A new home price index.

From Bloomberg:

Almost Half of Homes in New York and D.C. Are Now Losing Value

Almost half of single-family houses in the New York and Washington metropolitan areas are losing value, a sign that buyers’ tolerance for high prices in many large U.S. cities may be reaching a limit.

The values of 45 percent of houses in both the Washington and New York areas slumped by at least 2 percent in June from a year earlier, according to a new index created by Allan Weiss, co-founder of the Case-Shiller home price indexes. In June 2014, only 15 percent of Washington residences dropped in value, while 20 percent fell in New York. Because the index is of only single-family homes, it doesn’t include Manhattan. More properties also were in decline in Los Angeles, Chicago, Phoenix and Miami.

A steady rise in U.S. home prices since the bottom of the market combined with weak income growth has made housing less affordable, especially in big cities. Credit remains tight and demand is now being driven primarily by buyers dependent on mortgages, as foreign buyers and investors pull back from the market.

“What happens in any bull asset bubble such as what we’ve seen is you run out of buyers,” said Chris Whalen, senior managing director at Kroll Bond Rating Agency Inc. and an advisor to Weiss. “It’s hard to get deals done if the bottom third can’t get a mortgage.”

Weiss, founder and chief executive officer of Weiss Residential Research LLC, based in Natick, Massachusetts, introduced his repeat-sales index last year. It provides a value for every home in the markets the firm covers based on similar homes that sold nearby.

While an average home in a city may be rising, many homes within the area may be losing value instead, he said. A larger share of homes with declining values could be an early warning that the market may be in danger, he said.

“If you have a market where every house is rising and you hear the news that the housing market is up, you’re correct in applying it to your own home,” Weiss said. “However, if you are in a market where 60 percent of houses are rising, you have a 40 percent chance of misunderstanding what’s going on with your house.”

This entry was posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

59 Responses to Which way is up? A new home price index.

  1. grim says:


  2. D-FENS says:

    Neighbor lost his job a few months back. They packed up and left their house. I don’t see that it’s for sale on the gsmls or anything. JCP&L was there cutting the power two days ago.

    Everyone I know has at least one abandoned home in their neighborhood in NW NJ. Some have been unoccupied for years.

  3. D-FENS says:

    Kinda wish after a few years…townships had the authority to just come and bulldoze them. I’d rather look at an empty lot than a rotting zombie house.

  4. nwnj4Trump says:


    Empty POS on our block was empty since Dec 2012. It took over 2.5 years from the time the family walked away. Not sure how long the bank was hounding them before they split. The place is a total wreck.

  5. D-FENS says:

    That said…people get up every morning and go somewhere. Every major road out of the area is jam packed with cars. NW NJ has always been rural/farm area turned bedroom commuter neighborhoods. Yesterday’s drive home was hellish as a cement truck ran off the road on route 80 around exit 34 and smashed into the median. Backups were as long as 13 miles.

    So there was another article on NJ.com about the Andover train station. NJ transit keeps saying they have the money and it’s going to be built….they just have to rebuild the roseville tunnel in Byram…..of course our friend Jeff Tittel is hell bent on blocking and delaying it’s construction at every turn. Says there will be uncontrollable suburban sprawl in the area…..

  6. A Home Buyer says:

    2 –

    I have two abandoned houses and another house for sale, overpriced by 60K, on my street of around 8 houses.

  7. 1987 condo says:


  8. grim says:

    Not sure why Jeff doesn’t just advocate for mass suicides and bulldozing of homes

    He’s described NJ residents as a cancer on the land.

  9. 1987 condo says:

    +173k, 5.1 UE

  10. grim says:

    Guess 207

  11. grim says:

    Hmm I really should just edit my guess

  12. grim says:

    Some big upward revisions of the prior 2 months, up 44k.

    UE down more than expected.

    Mixed bag

  13. 1987 condo says:

    Yeah, guessing after the release is very “Jersey”

  14. grim says:

    Wages up 0.3 is probably the best news in there

  15. grim says:

    Big improvement in UE without a corresponding drop in the participation rate, also strong.

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    How long before the Pumpkin shows up and says, “I’ve been telling you this all along. Wage inflation is back and now our house prices will double.”

    Wages up 0.3 is probably the best news in there

  17. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    This jobs report assures one thing. The Fed is definitely going to do or not do something.

  18. 1987 condo says:

    I’d be raising rates, what are we waiting for 3.5% unemployment?

  19. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    [18] expat

    Illuminating, that.

  20. Ragnar says:

    Wow 2% yoy wage rate increases. Meanwhile core inflation continues to run at about 1.8% yoy. So basically the only real (inflation adjusted) wage gains over the past year came from the fall in the price of oil.
    And labor force participation stinks. While the big O is in office, lackeys will be willing to pretend its all just old people relaxing. As soon as a non-leftist is in power, low labor force participation will suddenly become a burning social issue. Unless low participation is due to the re-establishment by O of welfare queens and disability kings that Clinton and a Republican congress conspired to reduce in the 90s. Then it would be too un-PC to investigate.

  21. walking bye says:

    Had a neighbor take care of an elderly man for a few weeks with terminal illness. Elderly man had no kids. I see neighbor starting to clean up the place and take over. Not a bad way to get a house.

  22. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    If the Fed raises to 0.25%, can anyone hazard a guess what FDIC insured sweep vehicles in brokerage accounts will rise to?

    Here are Schwab’s current rates:
    Household Balance1 Interest Rate Annual % Yield (APY)2
    <$10K 0.01% 0.01%
    $10K<$25K 0.01% 0.01%
    $25K<$100K 0.01% 0.01%
    $100K<$250K 0.01% 0.01%
    $250K<$500K 0.01% 0.01%
    $500K<$1M 0.01% 0.01%
    $1M<$2.5M 0.01% 0.01%
    $2.5M<$5M 0.01% 0.01%
    $5M+ 0.01% 0.01%

  23. D-FENS says:

    NJ.com breaks down the unemployment rate in the state by county via interactive map.


  24. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    It looks like the poorly educated Millennials are now writing the headlines at Yahoo Finance. Actual headline of main story:

    S&P plunges 1.5%, briefly back in correction; Dow falls 275 after jobs


  25. Not NJ Expat says:

    That is why you want a brokerage account with a Money Market Fund as sweep. Vanguard Brokerage is the one of the few that allows it without requiring a half million or so, in fact there only sweep option are their different types of Money Funds.
    TIAA CREF Brokerage up until recently allowed sweeps to Federated Money Funds, but now they sweep to TIAA CREF Bank. But they use other banks to FDIC guarantee up to 2.5 million.

  26. Not NJ Expat says:

    What it means when using a Money Market Fund vs sweep is faster rise in rates in the market driven money fund which have holding in the 90-180 days or so window.

    I remember the around 2004-2007, my Vanguard money fund sweeps went from under performing vs ING Direct to over performing it within 90 days or so.

  27. grim says:

    Takes hard work to establish a permanent poverty class in America, but we’re well on our way. Let’s get that minimum wage up to $15/hr so that we can cement this thing.

    UE by Educational Attainment is the most telling, I think, more important than the UE, U6, or Participation rate. I’d love to see a graph of this that highlights the massive divergence. 20 years ago this wasn’t a major factor, today it is astronomical.

    As of this April, UE for Professional Degree holders was 1.9%, 2.1% for Doctoral Degree holders, and 2.8% for Masters Degree holders.

    UE for Highschool Drop Outs? 9% And an average weekly wage (for those with jobs), of less than 1/3rd of the educated group. Real world in a major metro? It’s probably closer to 1/5th.

    Short of more massive explosions in China and environmental disasters in India, we’ll not see the return of low skill jobs in the US. Americans seem held bent on the accumulation of cheap overseas crap. Which means a huge segment of the population will be completely unemployable, at any wage. I see nothing at all being done in the US today to address this structural imbalance.

  28. grim says:

    And it seems that lately, the standard reply from the idiots on the intarwebs has been that this is all the failure of “trickle-down economics”, whatever the hell that means.

    Really though, the failure was in the assumption that America could exist as solely as a service economy, and that as part of it, a huge segment of the population would be able to make the transition to knowledge work.

    So we spent the last 30 years destroying American manufacturing with feel-good legislation and NIMBYism.

    Now we get to live with our decision.

  29. Not NJ Expat says:

    Grim, don’t ask. We might get war with China sooner than later.

    Our bet is that economic growth would change communist authoritarian government.

    Their bet is that their economic growth would overcome our economic and military power.

    The talk was talk, now is time for the walk.

    China grew economically based on cheap manufacturing, this died out by 2007 or so, as they are no longer competitive enough, so next step they created a massive speculative and infrastructure bubble, well that reach its end. So the time for them to morph is here.

    Unfortunately, they are behaving more like USSR than hoped. Over the last few weeks -ships by Alaska, military marches celebrating end of WW2, arresting members of financial press along with investment community types because they talked down the market, and then you get stuff like this below.


  30. NJT says:

    There are two abandoned houses on my street (5 blocks long). In my little town (approx. 2600 population) there are 10 that I know of but probably more. None of them are for sale and squatters are in two.

    One gorgeous Victorian could be brought back to life but the x-husband won’t sign it over to x-wife out of spite. Funny thing is he was the one who cheated as well got in trouble with the IRS and INS (his business is importing cheap labor).

  31. Not NJ Expat says:

    So for those investors type in here I would say, buy real estate.

    Not residential real estate, but industrial – future factory type real estate. Create business plans and strategies to create essentially overnight factories that will build stuff that we now import from China and the far east.

    Just like WW1, which ended that period’s globalization push, we are now in another epical change period.

    So if you can figure out how build a factory to using 3D printers, on demand tech, etc to build stuff that WalMart would buy – you are the next Steve Jobs.

  32. grim says:

    It took me all of about 10 seconds to recognize that video as a video game/capabilities demo.

    There are plenty of American video games that have us blowing up other counties…

  33. NJT says:

    #8 [Grim]

    Guy is a nutjob. I had the displeasure of being on the same side as him re: some land use issues a decade ago. One thing he is very good at: alienating those that could be his allies. Figured by getting the Sierra Club involved in a court case (application to build a development along a C-1 category stream) it would only help our cause. Boy was I wrong. Same can be said about NJTU.

  34. Not NJ Expat says:

    Yes is a video game. But the underlying ideas are getting stronger.

    China is hitting a bad moment now. Are they going to make THE change required or are they going to do the same predictable thing all autocrats do to stay in power, which is to bring everyone together under a “nationalistic” cause and start a war if need be. Think Argentina’s military dictatorship and the Falkland war in 1982.

  35. grim says:

    It would trigger a massive migration of Chinese wealth and wealthy to the U.S. I’ve got a strong inkling that the desire to protect their wealth would outweigh their love of country. Precedent is set that after the declaration of war come the confiscations of property in the name of appropriation.

  36. Ragnar says:

    The psychology of Chinese nationalism is strong in China. They have a well deserved inferiority complex that will likely eventually manifest itself violently when they finally feel they have enough power. And they love to blame their problems on foereigners, sort of like Trump.

  37. HeHateMe says:

    In layman terms they have small pee pees

    Ragnar says:

    September 4, 2015 at 12:03 pm

    The psychology of Chinese nationalism is strong in China. They have a well deserved inferiority complex that will likely eventually manifest itself violently when they finally feel they have enough power. And they love to blame their problems on foereigners, sort of like Trump.

  38. Ragnar says:

    Wealthy Chinese have already sent significant assets overseas and acquired foreign passports for family members.

  39. grim says:

    Blockade the import of Rhino horn, it’ll shut them right down.

  40. grim says:

    Isn’t Taiwan still the canary?

  41. phoenix says:

    37. Rags,
    So you believe the Chinese don’t like us, yet we let them buy out our country piece by piece. Who allows these sales to go on? Who profits from them?
    How is it all going to turn out??

  42. grim says:

    I thought the Chinese loved Trump

  43. nwnj4Trump says:

    I haven’t heard Trump assigning blame for the countries problems on foreigners.

    Illegal aliens and incompetent bureaucrats? Yes, but no much on foreigners, I think he’s recognized that they are acting in their own self interest.

  44. Ron Jermany says:

    22: How long has Punky been in your neighborhood?

  45. D-FENS says:

    huh….Blackberry announced plans to acquire Good Technology today.

    I predict they drive them into the ground and Blackberry remains irrelevant.

  46. grim says:

    Pretty cheaply too

  47. Comrade Nom Deplume, the Answer says:

    [28] grim

    “Short of more massive explosions in China and environmental disasters in India, we’ll not see the return of low skill jobs in the US. Americans seem held bent on the accumulation of cheap overseas crap. Which means a huge segment of the population will be completely unemployable, at any wage. I see nothing at all being done in the US today to address this structural imbalance.”

    Truth. Though I would posit that the huge segment of unemployable will exist not only because of of cheap overseas crap, it will exist because of cheaper, robotically-made, domestic crap.

  48. Alex says:

    UK Daily Mail:

    According to police, NYC has 4000 homeless sleeping on the streets.

  49. Not nwnj4Trump says:

    Love Trump because he’s talking about national issues. Same with Sanders.

    However, the elephant no one wants to talk about is HOW the illegals got big from the 70’s on. Apart from the cold war/civil war issues in many of those countries. I seem to recall a mexican american/chicano gentleman, that opposed illegal immigration who wanted the farmers to get paid fairly for their work.

    Anybody remembers Cesar Chaves and the United Farm Workers Union, and how they were undermined by all the legal waivers and labor rules issue by St.Reagan to the big agricultural businesses.

    Once you deal with the fact that the ONLY important and powerful (as it can get done or not) proponents of the illegal immigration and all those H1B/H2B is corporate america. Once this issue with them is neutered than we can sanely address the issue.

  50. Walking bye says:

    Lol yes Pumpkin may just have stumbled onto this one.

    Standing in line at the Lodi dmv. They already have signs up that they may not get to everyone by 5, should hAve gone to Hazlet and took the kids to the beach after

  51. leftwing says:

    hopped on spy 192.50 9/11 calls in the last half hour. naked which i nearly never do. 2.63 average in. almost dumped when they popped above 3. what the he11, roll the dice on tues.

  52. chi says:

    Your time value will collapse over long weekend you may have made the right directional call (no pun intended) and still be in the red

  53. leftwing says:

    understood. believe time value was already priced in with a 3:30pm+ trade. premium was 1.4%, usually higher especially for the vol.

    if real life didn’t get in the way i wanted to make it a spread by selling the 195.5s. when the market tightened could have reduced my net premium to less than a buck with 3 buck upside if directionally correct.

    we’ll see. broke discipline for the equivalent of a ‘gut bet’ on lib’s machines.

  54. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    COSTELLO : I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
    ABBOTT : Good Subject. Terrible Times. It’s 5.6%.
    COSTELLO : That many people are out of work?
    ABBOTT : No, that’s 23%.
    COSTELLO : You just said 5.6%.
    ABBOTT : 5.6% Unemployed.
    COSTELLO : Right 5.6% out of work.
    ABBOTT : No, that’s 23%.
    COSTELLO : Okay, so it’s 23% unemployed.
    ABBOTT : No, that’s 5.6%.
    COSTELLO : WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 5.6% or 23%?
    ABBOTT : 5.6% are unemployed. 23% are out of work.
    COSTELLO : If you are out of work you are unemployed.
    ABBOTT : No, Congress said you can’t count the “Out of Work” as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
    ABBOTT : No, you miss his point.
    COSTELLO : What point?
    ABBOTT : Someone who doesn’t look for work can’t be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn’t be fair.
    COSTELLO : To whom?
    ABBOTT : The unemployed.
    COSTELLO : But ALL of them are out of work.
    ABBOTT : No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
    COSTELLO : So if you’re off the unemployment roles that would count as less unemployment?
    ABBOTT : Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
    COSTELLO : The unemployment just goes down because you don’t look for work?
    ABBOTT : Absolutely it goes down. That’s how it gets to 5.6%. Otherwise it would be 23%.
    COSTELLO : Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
    ABBOTT : Two ways is correct.
    COSTELLO : Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
    ABBOTT : Correct.
    COSTELLO : And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
    ABBOTT : Bingo.
    COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.
    ABBOTT: Now you’re talking like an Economist.
    COSTELLO: I don’t even know what the hell I just said!
    ABBOTT: Now you’re talking like a Liberal.

  55. leftwing says:

    Three scientists stranded on an island. Only sustenance is canned food washed ashore with them. Need desperately to open the cans.

    Physicist: I have calculated the relative hardness of the can, the density of the rocks on the shore, and the velocity needed to to precisely puncture the can with the rocks. If we drop the can from this exact height we will open the can without bursting it.

    Chemist: I have analyzed the contents of the can and its boiling point. If we leave it in the sun to attain exactly this temperature the pressure will separate the seam, opening the can for us without explosion.

    Economist: Assume a can opener……..

  56. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [56] leftwing:

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    July 6, 2012 at 9:22 am
    [4] Brian – Analogous to the economics lesson that Nom gave me a couple weeks back “Assume a can opener…”:

    Assume a Leader…

    ” This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance. In every dark hour of our national life a leadership of frankness and vigor has met with that understanding and support of the people themselves which is essential to victory. I am convinced that you will again give that support to leadership in these critical days.”


  57. Ben says:

    An economist would actually argue that you could just assume a full stomach

  58. joyce says:

    My friend told me to check this out and it’s truly hilarious in my opinion. Cops complaining about someone suspended with pay:
    They truly live in a bubble to not see the irony.

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