Hope you locked in your refi

From the Washington Post:

After stellar month for U.S. jobs market, Federal Reserve increasingly likely to raise interest rates

The U.S. job market has almost fully healed from the deep wounds of the Great Recession, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin withdrawing its support for the recovery by the end of the year.

Government data released Friday showed the economy added a blockbuster 271,000 jobs in October — the highest amount so far this year and beyond analysts’ most optimistic forecasts. The unemployment rate dipped to 5 percent, and wages rose at the fastest pace since 2009.

The stellar performance provided reassurance that the American economy can withstand powerful global headwinds, from the slowdown in China to the threat of deflation in Europe. A healthy labor market could also give policymakers at the nation’s central bank the confidence to raise its key interest rate target for the first time in nearly a decade.

“The economy’s course is steady and true,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “The reasons for Fed caution and delay are falling to the wayside as this economic expansion is the real deal.”

The probability that the central bank will move at its next meeting in December jumped to nearly 75 percent on Friday, according to futures markets, up from roughly even odds a week ago. Barclays reined in its forecast from March 2016 to December. Famed investor Bill Gross of Janus Capital was unequivocal, telling Bloomberg TV he believes the chances are “almost 100 percent that the yellow light changes in December to bright green.”

The move would mark the beginning of the end of an unprecedented era of easy money that cushioned the American economy during the downturn but has not produced robust growth in the recovery.

This entry was posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, Mortgages. Bookmark the permalink.

70 Responses to Hope you locked in your refi

  1. grim says:

    From the NYT:

    Turning Renters Into Buyers

    The upward trajectory of rents in many metropolitan areas, which shows no sign of abating, often makes homeownership the better deal. But renters still aren’t rushing to buy.

    Real estate listing and lender websites are awash in charts and mortgage calculators aimed at persuading renters that they can cut their monthly costs by buying a home. The problem is, “increasing rents have a very paradoxical effect on the housing market,” said Ralph McLaughlin, a housing economist at Trulia, the real estate information site. “Rising rents make it a relatively better deal to buy, but it also makes it more difficult for households to save up for a down payment.”

    A recent report from Trulia found that the rent-versus-buy differential is the widest it’s been since 2012, when mortgage interest rates bottomed out. Nationally, buying is 23 percent cheaper than renting. It is also cheaper to buy than to rent, in varying degrees, in all but two of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas. (Honolulu and San Jose, Calif., are the exceptions.)

    The areas where buying is the better deal by far — upward of 40 percent cheaper — include Houston; Baton Rouge, La., and New Orleans; Syracuse, N.Y., and Miami and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

    The gap is smaller in hot markets in California, like San Francisco and Sacramento, as well as in the New York metropolitan area, where it is 11 percent cheaper to buy, the report says. However, most New York City lenders require at least 20 percent down, which lowers the monthly payments but calls for more cash up front.

    According to a third-quarter market report from Zillow, the real estate listing site, annual growth in rents has outpaced or kept up with annual growth in home values nationally for most of this year. And metropolitan areas where home values are rising the fastest also tend to be those where rents are skyrocketing.

    Meanwhile, the homeownership rate remains low. According to the United States Census Bureau, it was 63.7 percent as of the third quarter, 0.7 percentage points lower than a year ago. The rate has been on a steady decline since the mid-2000s, when it topped 69 percent.

    In a September survey of 1,000 renters conducted for TD Bank, more than half said their rent had increased within the last two years. The average monthly increase was $288.

    Fifty percent of those surveyed reported that they were likely to buy a home within the next two years, citing rising rents and a desire to build equity. But an equal share said they either hadn’t saved enough money or had too much debt to buy now.

  2. The Great Pumpkin says:

    The light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s get this inflation going and this party started, we have some bubbles to create. Within the next two years, we should def see some good wage growth, that will be dumped into the housing market, which should lead to inflation to balance it out. By the 2020’s we should have some main st investors thinking they know what they are doing, trying to flip houses again, drunk off the big gains in housing. By 2025, look to sell, as the bubble gets close to bursting. Bubble should burst anywhere between 2025-2030. All those drunks will have a major hangover again after the bubble bursts causing them to lose all the easy money and some. Ahh, human nature, you gotta love it.

  3. Ben says:

    Some reports have politico back pedaling now. And I think it comes down to semantics. From what I read, Carson never said he applied, only that some folks offered to get him in. And if you get in, it’s a full boat. So if he turned down the effort, is it accurate to say he turned down a full boat?

    For my part, the dean of the Accounting program at my alma mater’s notoriously exclusive business school took me aside and asked me to switch to Accounting and said he’d get me in (intraschool transfers were impossible). I declined. So did I turn down admission to an elite business school? I never applied to it. You tell me.

    Not a Carson fan but on what planet does a black student who is number one in the state in something not get offered admission, and if needed, a full scholarship to any school of his/her choice? I’ve watched minority kids definitely smart and high achieving get admission into just about any school they want just for being in the top 10% of their graduating class. Meanwhile, I’ve watched the #1 kid in the school get rejected from 10 schools.

  4. Ragnar says:

    Ben, it is a thought crime to say those things.

  5. leftwing says:

    From yesterday:

    “It’s amazing the gains you [a country] can make on everyone else when you don’t pay tribute to the king and aren’t involved in conflicts with your neighbors invading you every 30 years.”

    Good thing the ‘kings’ here aren’t taxing our most productive citizens and corporations out of the country, and not engaging in far flung open ended military expeditions…..oh, damn……

  6. leftwing says:

    “The light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s get this inflation going and this party started, we have some bubbles to create”

    You HAVE to be a caricature. No one could possibly be this stup1d intentionally.

  7. yome says:

    The world is made of atoms,neutrons,protons,electrons and morons

  8. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [6] leftwing – Punkin is that stupid. His Charlie Brown inspired handle comes from his severely uneducated belief that inflation will come and bless the already over-taxed with great riches instead of the exact opposite. He is a classic cart-before-the-horse moron who believes higher prices bring even higher inflation-adjusted salaries and this is will bring great wealth to all indebted home occupiers (who don’t really own their house anyway).

    “The light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s get this inflation going and this party started, we have some bubbles to create”

    You HAVE to be a caricature. No one could possibly be this stupid intentionally

  9. Ben says:

    Good thing the ‘kings’ here aren’t taxing our most productive citizens and corporations out of the country, and not engaging in far flung open ended military expeditions…..oh, damn……

    That’s why I posted this in reference to the first half of the 1900s.

  10. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Okay, this moron has some questions. What will happen when we have wage inflation, which certainly looks like it’s happening for the people that have jobs? Will it not be funneled into housing creating inflationary measures to balance out the new higher wages? The reason for housing is quite simple, there are a ton renters just waiting to buy. They just need the down payments and/or slightly better wages and they are going on a buying spree creating the next bubble, right?

    Now my, let’s get ready to party statement, is not that I’m in support of this. It’s me being sarcastic that they will do the same thing over and over again. I’m not going to bitch about it, I’m just going to take advantage of it. I bought in the low and I bought with very low interest rates (free money to me when you count inflation). That was me taking advantage of the market conditions created by this endless cycle of boom and bust.

    You can sit here and make fun of me, but I called this wage inflation and housing market dead on back in 2012. Go look it up. When the job market was in the tank and the housing market dead (clot said real estate was dead during these times), I was the only one who said wage inflation would return by 2017-2018 and that the housing market would return in time after the wage inflation. I said the housing prices would go sideways to the end of the decade and then start the next bubble. You can laugh at me like you did back in 2012, or start to realize what I’m saying is right. I don’t care, laugh, but you know what they say about people laughing……he who laughs last, laughs the loudest!

  11. chicagofinance says:

    I wonder whether Stu el cheapo will find some way to Groupon this one, or WTF magic he routinely manipulates……
    http://www.hightimes.com/read/gas-and-grass-buying-weed-gas-stations-next-big-thing

  12. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [10]Okay, this moron has some questions. What will happen when we have wage inflation, which certainly looks like it’s happening for the people that have jobs?

    Not true. Absolutely not true. Only a moron would makes up his ignorant mind that it is true. Provide data, please. In the mean time, tell me what you do not understand about the latest jobs report:

    Males, ages 25-54: 119,000 jobs lost from the economy. Are these your future home debtors? Maybe you’re counting on those under 25 or empty nesters 55 and over creating sparking your limpness into a b0ner for a housing bubble?

  13. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I also had an awakening moment. Maybe me it’s me getting older and this comes with age, but I’m starting to realize some stuff. Had a talk with my brother-in-law and brother today.

    First, I was wrong about these social!st programs. This might come off as racist, but I’m just putting it out there, this is honestly how I feel. We can never have what Denmark or these other European countries have because it will not work here due to the demographics of our population.

    We have cultures inside the United States that are quite different from the work ethic of people in Europe. I’m sorry, we have a bunch of lower class individuals that are straight up lazy. They just have their hand out, and that’s why they came here. Just because you are poor, doesn’t mean you live like a dirty animal. These poor abbott districts are filled with people too lazy to even take care of their neighborhood or rental unit. They throw garbage on the streets, literally piss and shit in their homes(not in the bathroom), and have no problem living in an apartment that looks like a garbage dump. NO MATTER HOW POOR I AM, I WILL NEVER LIVE LIKE THAT. I have a work ethic and manners. You don’t live like that if you are a respectable human being.

    It’s not only me (white male) that thinks this. My sister told me of this puerto rican that is Americanized. This woman sends her kids to private school than rather her kids pick up the values of these other kids in the area she lives. This is a puerto rican woman calling her own culture lazy. She stated that she expects more of them to start coming here after screwing up their own home (Island). You can me racist, but I didn’t state this, this is coming from this woman’s mouth, not mine.

    Next, I was on the opposite side on this, but have now switched. I used to be for Abbott funding, but am totally against it now. Why? How much do I pay in property taxes? 30,000. Yes, I pay all those taxes, and my town doesn’t even have full day kindergarten. Meanwhile, all the taxes my town pays goes to funding free all day pre-K in these abbott districts. I used to think the kids would use it to take advantage and improve their lot. It’s obvious if they don’t care about their neighborhood or living spaces, and choose to live like animals, why should my own daughter not get access to full day pre-k and full day kindergarten? I’m paying all the taxes and these abbott district kids have a better opportunity than my own kid, yet are throwing away the opportunity. I rather save my money and give it to my own kid or the kids in my community that actually take advantage of what they are given.

    I’m pissed and sick to my stomach that I used to support this crap. I debated many of you on here and now I’m the greater fool. I guess I was young and naive. I thought we could make this a better country by providing opportunities to these kids. Boy, was I in lala land with the unicorns. It’s not worth giving an opportunity if someone is not going to take advantage of it. It’s just money getting thrown in the garbage. I work too hard to be giving away money like that. Been a crazy week for me, first global warming, and now this. Sometimes life changes fast.

  14. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    BTW, punkin, in case you don’t know what data looks like, in case you ever come across any for your area:

    http://www.bostonredevelopmentauthority.org/getattachment/8e631ca8-4314-4a19-bb42-c2b01cdbb4e5/

    We’re actually in a bubble right now. Highest RE prices ever. Do you know why? Because there is still a population of greater fools in NJ (you are one of our flyover states) emptying out their 401K accounts and sending that money to Boston so your kids can have a 4-6 year all expenses paid vacation. I realize that is unsustainable, but I figure I don’t have to make a move until you and your stupid kind stop sending the money up here.

  15. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I need to look at the data more in detail. I wasn’t aware of this. So all the jobs went to people 55 and over?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 7, 2015 at 5:55 pm
    [10]Okay, this moron has some questions. What will happen when we have wage inflation, which certainly looks like it’s happening for the people that have jobs?

    Not true. Absolutely not true. Only a moron would makes up his ignorant mind that it is true. Provide data, please. In the mean time, tell me what you do not understand about the latest jobs report:

    Males, ages 25-54: 119,000 jobs lost from the economy. Are these your future home debtors? Maybe you’re counting on those under 25 or empty nesters 55 and over creating sparking your limpness into a b0ner for a housing bubble?

  16. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [15] Every one of them. Go and read my post from yesterday. You should be able to spot it, just look at the short ones;-)

    I need to look at the data more in detail. I wasn’t aware of this. So all the jobs went to people 55 and over?

  17. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Can we stop with the name calling. Bubbles can be localized, but no way in hell are we in a bubble yet for most of America. Yes, the top of the market might be in a bubble, but not the rest of the market. Nj is in no way in a bubble, still haven’t recovered from 2006 prices. I really don’t look at any real estate in America and think bubble. I think American real estate is a great buy based on price comparisons in these other top areas. You see how much it costs north of the border for a decent pad?

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 7, 2015 at 6:08 pm
    BTW, punkin, in case you don’t know what data looks like, in case you ever come across any for your area:

    http://www.bostonredevelopmentauthority.org/getattachment/8e631ca8-4314-4a19-bb42-c2b01cdbb4e5/

    We’re actually in a bubble right now. Highest RE prices ever. Do you know why? Because there is still a population of greater fools in NJ (you are one of our flyover states) emptying out their 401K accounts and sending that money to Boston so your kids can have a 4-6 year all expenses paid vacation. I realize that is unsustainable, but I figure I don’t have to make a move until you and your stupid kind stop sending the money up here.

  18. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    from yesterday:

    Today’s jobs report breakdown:

    – Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
    – Workers aged 25-54: -35,000 <—- That's a minus sign!

    “In October the age group that accounted for virtually all total job gains was workers aged 55 and over. They added some 378K jobs in the past month, representing virtually the entire increase in payrolls. And more troubling: workers aged 25-54 actually declined by 35,000, with males in this age group tumbling by 119,000!”

    I guess that means 84,000 new jobs for women 25-54 were added while 119,000 jobs for men 25-54 went away, net -35,000 for that age group? Lot’s of guys approaching middle age in their parent’s basement I guess. I’m pretty sure punkinpuss is one of them.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/most-surprising-thing-about-todays-jobs-report

  19. The Great Pumpkin says:

    All of the desirable areas of Europe, Australia, and Asia blow our real estate prices out the door and make it seem like our real estate is a deal. That’s why foreigners are buying up our real estate like hot cakes.

  20. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^old people(mostly) and some girls(Victoria’s Secret) who need/want the seasonal jobs got them. Males 25-54 are SOL.

  21. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    Walk around your local mall and tell me what you see. Sad people my age working retail. Anyone under 55 thinks texting while working is a god-given right, so what’s the answer? Hire old people who don’t text.

  22. The Great Pumpkin says:

    18- Those numbers, if true, are sad. It’s pretty pathetic. I’m still happy that jobs increased, but damn, the younger generation is going through some major setbacks. Maybe my call of wage inflation is nothing more than a dream. I truly am “The Great Pumpkin”.

  23. The Great Pumpkin says:

    This is not good at all. The thing you really have to question is why someone 55 or older is stuck working in one of these jobs. They are the definition of screwed. I’m just happy I busted my ass to get a job and have what I have. From the data, it sounds like a 35 year old white male is not a good spot to be in. I have to count my blessing every day.

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 7, 2015 at 6:22 pm
    Walk around your local mall and tell me what you see. Sad people my age working retail. Anyone under 55 thinks texting while working is a god-given right, so what’s the answer? Hire old people who don’t text.

  24. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [23] Punkin, punkin. It’s not their only job.

    This is not good at all. The thing you really have to question is why someone 55 or older is stuck working in one of these jobs.

  25. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^^In case I’m not clear: Sad, underpaid, futureless office workers become sadder, more underpaid, uber-futureless retail workers at night. Or they do the same for more hours during the day because they are old and they lost their office job.

  26. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    ^^^Someone has to pay for the teenagers iPhones.

  27. The Original NJ ExPat says:

    [22] Cheer up Charlie Brown! Maybe a lot of those Gen-Xers will kill themselves or be killed by their parents! OTOH, maybe they’ll become champions at gnashing of teeth while they roam the wilderness!

    18- Those numbers, if true, are sad. It’s pretty pathetic. I’m still happy that jobs increased, but damn, the younger generation is going through some major setbacks. Maybe my call of wage inflation is nothing more than a dream. I truly am “The Great Pumpkin”.

  28. That’s 50-100 years roaming in the wilderness, Slappy.

  29. Don’t forget sleeping in the open and trash can fires as the only source of heat.

  30. The Great Pumpkin says:

    What’s your god honest assessment of the economy and opinion on when and how it will get to the levels of what you speak of below? You obviously have been in the game and know what you are talking about.

    Splat What Was He Thinking says:
    November 7, 2015 at 9:34 pm
    That’s 50-100 years roaming in the wilderness, Slappy.

  31. chicagofinance says:

    Fair enough…..I haven’t parsed the numbers, but how many old people head to ND & TX to work on the oil rigs? That’s a young man’s game…..and there was a serious bloodletting there……they weren’t cutting fat, but rather muscle and bone……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 7, 2015 at 6:15 pm
    from yesterday:

    Today’s jobs report breakdown:

    – Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
    – Workers aged 25-54: -35,000 <—- That's a minus sign!

  32. grim says:

    From MarketWatch:

    There are more full-time jobs than before the Great Recession hit

    It’s taken close to eight years, but the U.S. economy now has more full-time jobs than it had before the onset of the Great Recession.

    After 185,000 full-time jobs were created in October, the total number of positions rose to 122.02 million. That tops the 121.61 million mark in December 2007, the start date for the recession.

    The household report that includes information on full-time workers can be quite volatile, but it’s the third month in a row in which the number full-time positions has exceeded pre-recession levels.

    The recovery has, despite popular conceptions, been led by gains in full-time positions. In the last 12 months, for example, 2.34 million full-time jobs have been added, while 507,000 part-time jobs have been lost.

  33. Pumpty (30)-

    Let’s start with Phony & Fraudy’s admissions that they’ll likely need new bailouts.

    That’s eight years out from a necronomic collapse of a house of cards built upon the dream of homedebtorship.

    Also keep in mind that Dodd-Frank and all the other “solutions” created in the past eight years have done nothing but transform too-big-to-fail institutions into too-big-to-control ones.

    The price of money for first movers, banksters and corporations- thanks to the gangsters at FedCo- has held steady for eight years at 0. The price of money for average folks? Well (heh-heh), that’s gonna be a little more.

    The VALUE of paper money (again thanks to FedCo) is zero. That will continue worldwide until everyone realizes the music’s stopped playing. Last one to the bottom is the loser in the game of competitive currency devaluation.

    I used to think some sort of real economic recovery would take 50 years. Now, I think it’ll take closer to 100. To answer your question, that puts us at roughly 92 years to go.

  34. Of course, year after year of necronomic torpor always increases the chances of widespread war breaking out and gives racist, national soci@list-type political candidates a greater chance of being elected to high office.

    All that should be really exciting.

  35. grim (32)-

    All this great employment news, yet the Soci@l Security Disability funds are just months away from being tapped out.

    Still believe there will be no rate hike in December. We’ll see yet another stim program before we see a rate hike.

  36. chi (31)-

    Obviously, the route to economic recovery lies in making old people work until they drop dead.

    Duh.

  37. BTW, dickweed, I’m 55, fit, healthy and ready to work 12 hour days on any oil rig you put in front of me…

  38. grim says:

    A better strategy would be to force boomer retirement, really.

  39. phoenix1 says:

    39 Grim,
    A better strategy would be to have some of these so called “job creators” actually create jobs– here in America, of course, and not visa jobs.
    I was on the way to work the other day, saw the name of a business, generic name.
    I wondered what it is they do, popped it into Google and the first thing that came up was the owners application for a visa to hire employees.
    America is for sale. Just admit already that you are just a bunch of w#ore3$.

  40. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Thank you for the assessment. You are making a lot of sense, esp when it comes to the currency. The big question, how many times can they invent their way out of this mess. I would think ZIRP would tell us that they are pretty close to running out of options. At the same time, it seems human ingenuity somehow/someway always gets out of the mess and pushes the problem down the road. Logic says eventually there is no pushing the problem down the road.

    I still think we are on course for another run up in real estate. They will prob put forth some stimulus package that has to do with real estate if the wage inflation doesn’t pick up by 2017/2018. So imo, the run up in real estate is inevitable.

    The economy seems to run on extremes (boom/bust), so we have obviously been at the bust for real estate for some time now, it’s only fitting based on previous cycles that we will go to the opposite end of extremes from the current bust cycle to a boom cycle. I might be totally wrong, but this is what my intuition is saying based on the data and evidence in history.

    Splat What Was He Thinking says:
    November 8, 2015 at 7:58 am
    Pumpty (30)-

    Let’s start with Phony & Fraudy’s admissions that they’ll likely need new bailouts.

    That’s eight years out from a necronomic collapse of a house of cards built upon the dream of homedebtorship.

    Also keep in mind that Dodd-Frank and all the other “solutions” created in the past eight years have done nothing but transform too-big-to-fail institutions into too-big-to-control ones.

    The price of money for first movers, banksters and corporations- thanks to the gangsters at FedCo- has held steady for eight years at 0. The price of money for average folks? Well (heh-heh), that’s gonna be a little more.

    The VALUE of paper money (again thanks to FedCo) is zero. That will continue worldwide until everyone realizes the music’s stopped playing. Last one to the bottom is the loser in the game of competitive currency devaluation.

    I used to think some sort of real economic recovery would take 50 years. Now, I think it’ll take closer to 100. To answer your question, that puts us at roughly 92 years to go.

  41. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Good point. I think you are spot on.

    chicagofinance says:
    November 8, 2015 at 12:34 am
    Fair enough…..I haven’t parsed the numbers, but how many old people head to ND & TX to work on the oil rigs? That’s a young man’s game…..and there was a serious bloodletting there……they weren’t cutting fat, but rather muscle and bone……

    The Original NJ ExPat says:
    November 7, 2015 at 6:15 pm
    from yesterday:

    Today’s jobs report breakdown:

    – Workers aged 55 and over: +378,000
    – Workers aged 25-54: -35,000 <—- That's a minus sign!

  42. phoenix1 says:

    Times were better when we had phones with wires, the Lennon Sisters were on tv,
    clothes were hung on lines outside, and houses were 1200 sq ft.
    Today things are like a merry go round at 10,000 rpm, and there is no one at the helm.
    It cannot end well…..

  43. The Great Pumpkin says:

    I mean this has to be a good sign that we are getting closer to some actual wage inflation. It’s been a slow recovery, but we have been adding jobs. Eventually, even without wage inflation, this will have positive multiplier effects in our economy.

    “The recovery has, despite popular conceptions, been led by gains in full-time positions. In the last 12 months, for example, 2.34 million full-time jobs have been added, while 507,000 part-time jobs have been lost.”

  44. phoenix1 says:

    43. Pumps,
    It’s the dead cat bounce of employment, that’s all….

  45. Juice Box says:

    re # 38 – love to see a chart on how many boomers have a mortgage, lease their cars and carry a 18-10k a month nut in living expenses.

  46. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Well said and agree. It didn’t have to be this way. These job creators were tricked by short term profits. They totally took the bait at the expense of the long term economy. Anyone with an ounce of economic intellect knows the practice of off-shoring and elimination of jobs is not sustainable, and only brings long term pain for short term gains. I don’t know how these job creators can even call themselves businessmen. They have no idea about business, based on their chase of the low hanging fruit. No idea how the people making these decisions got into the position of being able to make these terrible decisions. Pretty sad.

    phoenix1 says:
    November 8, 2015 at 10:05 am
    39 Grim,
    A better strategy would be to have some of these so called “job creators” actually create jobs– here in America, of course, and not visa jobs.
    I was on the way to work the other day, saw the name of a business, generic name.
    I wondered what it is they do, popped it into Google and the first thing that came up was the owners application for a visa to hire employees.
    America is for sale. Just admit already that you are just a bunch of w#ore3$.

  47. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Yup, I’m starting to realize it. Clot is right, when they don’t hike interest rates in december, you will know that everything clot is saying is dead on. Big time house of cards. The masters at the fed might realize people are thinking this, and might raise it just to shut people up people like clot, but then in 2016, they will lower it right back with some lame reasoning justifying it.

    phoenix1 says:
    November 8, 2015 at 10:16 am
    43. Pumps,
    It’s the dead cat bounce of employment, that’s all….

  48. The Great Pumpkin says:

    Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    Investors need to buckle up for 2016

    http://usat.ly/1iLadNP

  49. phoenix1 says:

    Funny how this guy blamed everything on the boomers. How many older seniors, the ones that no one thought would live so long, the ones that never paid into the system enough, should be exempt from reforms… Sure the boomers were/are a big part of the problem. Rubio, the can kicker, the lover of “Grandfathering.” Give it up.
    It’s time to touch the third rail already…..

    Rubio:
    Everyone up here tonight that’s talking about reforms,” he stipulated, was “talking about reforms for future generations. Nothing has to change for current beneficiaries.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/05/baby-boomers-are-whats-wrong-with-americas-economy/?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

  50. Grim says:

    49 – that is the greatest article ever published in the Washington Post

  51. phoenix1 says:

    50. Grim,
    That “idoit” light has been flashing on the dashboard for a very long time….

  52. Ben says:

    Next, I was on the opposite side on this, but have now switched. I used to be for Abbott funding, but am totally against it now. Why? How much do I pay in property taxes? 30,000. Yes, I pay all those taxes, and my town doesn’t even have full day kindergarten. Meanwhile, all the taxes my town pays goes to funding free all day pre-K in these abbott districts. I used to think the kids would use it to take advantage and improve their lot. It’s obvious if they don’t care about their neighborhood or living spaces, and choose to live like animals, why should my own daughter not get access to full day pre-k and full day kindergarten? I’m paying all the taxes and these abbott district kids have a better opportunity than my own kid, yet are throwing away the opportunity. I rather save my money and give it to my own kid or the kids in my community that actually take advantage of what they are given

    Pumpkinator,

    a few years back in Basking Ridge, the administration proposed to eliminate full day kindergarten as a budget cutting measure. A few parents went around and solicited donations from the people in town. They were easily able to fund it through donations. Not only were all the parents willing to put up a few thousand, but a lot of residents who recognized that it’s good for home values put up as well.

  53. 3b says:

    # 50 lot of truth to the article. But generalizing as well. And baby boomer is broad term. I am considered tail end of boomers. We came of age in early 80 economy was horrible jobs incredibly scarce . 16 per cent interest rates. Then the economy boomed including housing. All the experts at the time told us young people get in now be closed out forever. Whole generation would be shut out. So we managed to get in market goes bust and the rest is history. Also many of us had college educated spouses who gave up or stalled careers to raise a family. Many of us worked incredibly hard to get what we got. Nothing was handed to us.

  54. NJT says:

    #50 [Grim]

    That 1965 Mustang Coupe has a good body and chrome. IF the original engine (block) is still in it…nice resto/flip project. Buddy and I could get it done in a week! (he used to flip classic cars…until his fourth kid – now they are older and we could/should do it again). BTW – Mustang parts are NO PROBLEM. Actually 60’s Mustang parts have declined in price (most people these days want one that’s ‘done’ rather than a DIY resto. and they have MONEY!).

    Funny – Yesterday my son and I were returning home after fixing a furnace at a rental prop. when we saw a 1970 BOSS 302 mustang idling in a driveway. We stopped, got out and the owner came out of the house (empty, he’s selling it). ORIGINAL owner! (of the car). He even had original tires! (not that came with the car but period (1969) Polyglass 15″ F60s). EVERY special option, garage kept and never tinkered with/hot rodded. ALL original paperwork too, including window sticker! (not on the car) Said he was offered $200,000 cash for it last year also said it was the ONLY 70 BOSS 302 that was ordered with the dash clock – and the only thing in it that doesn’t work like new.

    *It was white with black stripes and a black functional hood scoop.

    Told him I’d pay him $100 cash to drive it around the block. He laughed.

  55. 3b says:

    As far as other points in the article some valid some not. Many of did not pay for their kids college but say they did. I have caught a few I know in lies. And yes many want to brag about which almost ivy school their kid attended. I know a lot of young people with staggering amounts of student loan debt. Staggering!!

  56. 3b says:

    And yet as much as some of the millennial Will criticize the boomers they buy into some of the same b.s.. high taxes mean better schools. False. We have spent millions in my town and sat scores are roughly the same as 20 years ago. We should be cranking out dozens of kids every year to ivy league we don’t. Ironically enough the graduates from our high school go to the same college s as the so called crappy schools.

  57. 3b says:

    On this site we hear often about our vaunted schools. And yet every few years north Jersey has the popular out of state school that everyone wants to go to. For instance university of Delaware was a big favorite some years back. Yet how often do we hear how bad Delaware schools are? But all these Jersey parents sent their kids there. By the way the majority of u d kids are from Delaware. University Rhode island and James Madison other popular ones. For disclosure my kids all went to n j state schools. All have jobs in their chosen fields and are doing well with no debt. Once you have that first job no one gives a krap what school you went to. Any how enough of my rambling your generation is making some of the same mistakes and buy into the same b.s. as boomers did.

  58. 3b says:

    One final thought on making boomers retire sooner . I know a couple of firms that did the package thing. In both instances a ton of talent walked out the door. People they did not want to leave. They are left with a lot of ear phone attached texting types without a clue.

  59. Grim says:

    Boomers are upset they are being generalized?

  60. NJT says:

    #53 [3b]

    I hear ya. Been there, done that (including the spouse) as that was my time too, but…if you bought a house in an average white middle class town in NJ before 2000…you should be fine.

    *Went into the military during those tough early 80s.

    *Best manger I ever had told me (when I was going to sell my starter home to upgrade) “Don’t sell it, rent it! Take an equity loan and use it for a down payment on your new house”. Guy owned many rentals. Best advice anyone ever gave me.

    *Got told in the 80s (by many) – “Go into computers, they are the future”. Now it’s a career of the past.

  61. yome says:

    #50 boomers had a good life due to the beginning of dual income. Yes, the economy enjoyed this extra income while increasing prices to almost everything. Housing got larger. Their retirement age was increase too instead of the usual 65yo. FRA. People born 1943 to 1954 their FRA is 66. After 1954 is up to 67.mthis is the Generation that our Government put to competition against low wage foreign workers, Start of loss of Pension plans, unions in the,privare sector

  62. Ben says:

    And yet as much as some of the millennial Will criticize the boomers they buy into some of the same b.s.. high taxes mean better schools. False. We have spent millions in my town and sat scores are roughly the same as 20 years ago. We should be cranking out dozens of kids every year to ivy league we don’t. Ironically enough the graduates from our high school go to the same college s as the so called crappy schools.

    I know nothing of the district you are speaking of but I would note that quality of school system has nothing to do with Ivy League admissions. I taught in a district that was ranked the top public on several lists for the past 10 years or so. Our students outperformed everyone in the state. We woudl even crush the magnet schools in academic competitions. Despite this, our top 5 would routinely get rejected from Harvard, Brown, Columbia, and Princeton. MIT would do the same. It made no sense. You had the top performing students in the state. They finished at the top of their class in the top high school. The Ivy admissions don’t give a crap. They’ll take the valedictorian from a lower tier suburb over these students because they only know how to look at one thing…class rank (unfortunately, we didn’t rank our students. We only reported top 40 in no order for self esteem issues). I’d say my top 15 students each year could regularly run circles around 95% of Ivy Leaguers.

    The one bright spot was, Cornell and UPenn recognized our school as a huge talent pool and admits about 10 kids each year.

    Another anecdote. I have a student this year who received a letter from Yale for athletics. They want him only if he makes top 10% in the class. Kinda stupid if you ask me. If he was in a worse town, he’d get in no problem.

  63. Alex says:

    50-

    I read the WP article Grim. Can’t understand how someone as resourceful as you would be impressed by such a whiny, pathetic article.

  64. leftwing says:

    Just came back from a three state, four school swing over teachers break.

    Seems self evident but I’ll say it again:
    You can’t figure out the best route without first knowing your destination.

    What is your your educational destination? Why does your child attend high school? What is the endpoint? Acceptance to the best college possible, or the best HS education? Often two very different items. Factor in that the children of posters on this board would perform well in most high schools anywhere and it gets really interesting…..

    Hint: Blue Ribbon means jack.

    Staring at the admittance stats for a school equivalent of the above. They admitted 15 or fewer students from 16 states. My kid (or yours) would be virtually guaranteed of being top five in their district of choice in those states (as opposed to top five percent here). And it’s not all Alabama. And that doesn’t even take into account that an identical kid to yours from Vineland beats your kid in the admissions race every time.

    For the most part your kid is just another overachieving white suburban kid from a privileged area in jersey. There are thousands of them. Who cares.

  65. chicagofinance says:

    Harvard, Brown, Columbia, and Princeton……..these schools are all that make your cut? Penn & Cornell admit because they are the least biased…..Harvard & Princeton are very specific……do your kids bring athletics or connections to the table? If you are kid is not an athlete then they must do something truly unique or be related to someone…..

    Columbia is of the same ilk, except they expect to be courted….you better act as if Columbia is your #1……. Brown is a hunk of shite, so they are doing your kids a favor unless they want to go into the 8-year med program.

    Ben says:
    November 8, 2015 at 7:24 pm
    And yet as much as some of the millennial Will criticize the boomers they buy into some of the same b.s.. high taxes mean better schools. False. We have spent millions in my town and sat scores are roughly the same as 20 years ago. We should be cranking out dozens of kids every year to ivy league we don’t. Ironically enough the graduates from our high school go to the same college s as the so called crappy schools.

    I know nothing of the district you are speaking of but I would note that quality of school system has nothing to do with Ivy League admissions. I taught in a district that was ranked the top public on several lists for the past 10 years or so. Our students outperformed everyone in the state. We woudl even crush the magnet schools in academic competitions. Despite this, our top 5 would routinely get rejected from Harvard, Brown, Columbia, and Princeton. MIT would do the same. It made no sense. You had the top performing students in the state. They finished at the top of their class in the top high school. The Ivy admissions don’t give a crap. They’ll take the valedictorian from a lower tier suburb over these students because they only know how to look at one thing…class rank (unfortunately, we didn’t rank our students. We only reported top 40 in no order for self esteem issues). I’d say my top 15 students each year could regularly run circles around 95% of Ivy Leaguers.

    The one bright spot was, Cornell and UPenn recognized our school as a huge talent pool and admits about 10 kids each year.

    Another anecdote. I have a student this year who received a letter from Yale for athletics. They want him only if he makes top 10% in the class. Kinda stupid if you ask me. If he was in a worse town, he’d get in no problem.

  66. chicagofinance says:

    Where is sh!tbreath?

    Lori Laine’s foray into a California clean-energy program made it tough for her to sell her house and ended up costing her hundreds of dollars and months of aggravation.

    The culprit: a nearly $8,000 loan she took out last year to pay for a new air-conditioning unit to replace her broken one, part of a statewide push to promote clean energy with low-interest loans.

    “I would never do this again,” Ms. Laine said.

    A well-intentioned government program has become a mess for some of the homeowners who have tapped it and then tried to sell or refinance. While the effort, known as Property Assessed Clean Energy, or PACE, has spurred solar-panel installations and other improvements that otherwise wouldn’t have taken place, it also has thrown a wrench into home sales and refinances, and proved costly to some sellers.

    The problem is that the state laws that authorize PACE loans usually structure them as tax assessments, which are paid off before mortgages in the event of a foreclosure.

    That breaks rules set by the Federal Housing Administration and mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which back the vast majority of U.S. mortgage loans. They all require that their mortgages stay at the top of the pecking order, and have rejected loans on homes with PACE financing.

    The largest PACE lender, Renovate America Inc., says that 25% of the roughly 7,400 homeowners who were financed through their program and then sold or refinanced their homes paid off the assessment at the time of the sale or refinance. Many of them would have preferred to transfer the loan to the new owner or mortgage. The other 37,000 or so homeowners who Renovate America has financed haven’t yet sold or refinanced.

    California has the most active residential PACE market, but 32 states and the District of Columbia have passed laws enabling some version of the program since 2008, according to PACENow, a nonprofit that promotes the program. Many of those states have active PACE programs for only commercial buildings because of the mortgage issue. PACENow says the program has financed more than 50,000 residential projects worth more than $1 billion.

    Wil Herring, a real-estate agent in Riverside, Calif., said that about half of the transactions he encounters now have PACE financing attached. He said that when he first ran across PACE loans a couple years ago, some lenders didn’t realize they ran afoul of the government’s guidelines.

    “PACE has been a nightmare for us,” Mr. Herring said.

    Ms. Laine’s experience is emblematic of the problems some homeowners face. She said her air-conditioning contractor told her the financing would transfer to a new owner if she sold the home, though she admits the documents she signed from San Diego-based lender Renovate America Inc. stated there could be difficulties.

    When she tried to sell her Highland, Calif., home last October, the buyer said Ms. Laine would need to pay off the balance in full before the buyer could get a mortgage.

    Ms. Laine took the home off the market in hopes the rules would change, but earlier this year, she gave in and paid it off in order to sell the house. The final cost for the energy-efficient unit, she said, was $500 more than if she had paid with cash.

    PACE proponents say they benefit consumers because the energy-efficiency improvements can pay for themselves over the term of the loan, which can last the lifetime of the improvement project or up to 30 years. What’s more, advocates say the PACE program spurs local contracting jobs and helps the environment. The loans’ tax-like treatment allows for lower rates—typically 6% to 8.5%—than borrowers might otherwise find.

    Because the financing sticks with the home rather than with the borrower, Ygrene Energy Fund Inc., a Santa Rosa, Calif., PACE lender that operates in California, Florida and Georgia, said it doesn’t have a minimum credit score for borrowers. The debt typically doesn’t count against the homeowner if he or she needs to get other kinds of loans, either.

    The Florida Bankers Association, a trade group, challenged that state’s PACE program on the grounds that it infringed on mortgage holders’ right to be the first priority for repayment in case of default. Florida’s Supreme Court in October said the group didn’t have standing in the case.

    The FHA and the White House in August released preliminary guidance that said PACE financing could be acceptable for FHA-backed mortgages as long as the programs were restructured to be subordinate, among other stipulations. An FHA spokesman said the finalized guidance is unlikely to come this year.

    But Fannie and Freddie haven’t yet said if they will follow the FHA’s lead. A spokesman for their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said it is open to ways of encouraging green home investments as long as they don’t subsume the priority of the Fannie or Freddie-backed mortgage.

    Meanwhile, some real-estate agents say companies making PACE loans have improved the disclosures they make to borrowers in response to the complaints.

    Renovate America said it has put greater emphasis on the fact that many homeowners might end up having to pay off the financing themselves if they want to sell. Chief Executive J.P. McNeill said the firm will start to make all of its loans subordinate to federally backed mortgages when a homeowner sells.

    “We believe PACE is a good model and is working to make homes more affordable and efficient,” Mr. McNeill said.

  67. Comrade Nom Deplume, living well off the carrion of the left says:

    [37] Splat What Was He Thinking says:
    November 8, 2015 at 8:08 am
    BTW, dickweed, I’m 55, fit, healthy and ready to work 12 hour days on any oil rig you put in front of me…

    Oil rigs have sommeliers?

  68. Comrade Nom Deplume, living well off the carrion of the left says:

    [39] Phoenix

    I decided around 6-7 years ago that if I’m gonna get fcuked anyway, I might as well get paid for it.

  69. phoenix1 says:

    61 Yome,
    A fact that Elizabeth Warren had talked about in a video years ago. Wages were declining, women came into the workforce to prop up the family finances.
    As she pointed out, it is a one shot deal. It’s the ace in the hole, and now buying a wooden, constantly deteriorating moldbox requires 2 incomes which goes directly into Granny’s retirement account- the same granny who paid 20k wants 500k now, and Rubio feels her S. Security and Medicare should be “Grandfathered.”

    Bottom line, never, ever buy a house that you cannot afford with one salary.
    One person gets sick, loses a job, etc- you have no reserve left.
    Remember that the price of the tinderbox is only part of the deal, you still have to pay the taxman for the privilege of the land under your feet…

    “boomers had a good life due to the beginning of dual income”

  70. phoenix1 says:

    68.CND
    Can’t argue with that logic….. Problem for me is the more I save, the more my better half spends…. Middle age does things to some people..

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