2016 predictions start early

From Trulia:

Housing in 2016: Hesitant Households, Costly Coasts, and the Bargain Belt

As part of our annual look at the year ahead in housing, we commissioned Harris Poll to conduct a survey online in November among more than 2,000 Americans about their housing hopes and fears. We noticed some striking trends. Among them:

The American Dream of homeownership is not only alive and well, but continues its resurgence. The share of Americans who dream of owning a home is again up since last year: 1 percentage-point to 75%, and up 2 points among millennials to 80%.

More than one in five (22%), Americans think it will be harder to get a mortgage in 2016 than it was in 2015, perhaps because of looming interest rate increases.

Among millennials telling us that they plan to buy a home, nearly a third (31%) tell us they want to buy within two years, so by 2018. However, jobs and down payments are keys to turning these renters into homeowners within the next 12 months.

In addition to the survey, we at Trulia put together a short list of predictions for 2016:

Housing markets in the West and Northeast that we’ve defined as the Costly Coasts will continue to cool, but will boom in the Southern and Midwestern markets we call the Bargain Belt.

Renters may get some relief in costly metros, where multifamily construction is booming.

Buying will remain a better deal than renting nationally, even if mortgage rates increase. But in several California markets, renting might become cheaper than buying.

We expect housing markets along the Costly Coasts – namely, expensive metros in the West and Northeast– to continue slowing. In many of these coastal metros, affordability has decreased, homes are staying on the market slightly longer, and saving for a down payment can take decades.

Consumers are also starting to feel pessimistic about homes along the costly coasts. Those in the combined regions of the West and Northeast say getting a mortgage to buy or refinance a home will be worse in 2016 than better (10 percentage-points more said it would be worse than better to get a mortgage to buy a home, 7 points for refinance). Likewise, more Americans in these combined regions also said 2016 will be worse for renting a home than better (by a margin of 8 percentage-points).

Taken together, these factors lead us to believe household formation will wane in these metros 2016, which should help moderate price and rent growth. But due to a limited supply of new single-family homes in these metros, we don’t anticipate prices to fall anytime soon.

This entry was posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate. Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to 2016 predictions start early

  1. D-FENS says:

    NYC Commutable areas will become more unaffordable pushing families back into the exurbs

  2. Ben says:

    Brooklyn apartments go to 1.2 million.

  3. The Great Pumpkin says:

    One life to live. There’s just something about owning the home you live in. It’s really one of the most rewarding feelings in life. Don’t come back stating you don’t own it due to taxes. Taxes are the cost of society, you pay them whether you own or rent.

    “The American Dream of homeownership is not only alive and well, but continues its resurgence. The share of Americans who dream of owning a home is again up since last year: 1 percentage-point to 75%, and up 2 points among millennials to 80%.”

  4. Essex says:

    U2 will record an Album for Paris. Don Trump will not only win the nomination, but possibly the Presidency. Home safe room sales skyrocket. The US will return to the Gold standard.

  5. chicagofinance says:

    In 2016…..due to his extortionist threat of outing him, jj will announce here that he is HIV+; FlabMax will team with a group of Palestinians to form a north-american Jew hating group called “McHamas O’Nazis”.

  6. anon (the good one) says:

    yep

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 6, 2015 at 9:55 am
    One life to live. There’s just something about owning the home you live in. It’s really one of the most rewarding feelings in life. Don’t come back stating you don’t own it due to taxes. Taxes are the cost of society, you pay them whether you own or rent.

  7. Comrade Nom Deplume, on the road again says:

    [6] anot

    Except you don’t believe in paying them yourself. You are of the “tax thee, not me” camp

  8. Marilyn says:

    don’t worry he will be paying it soon. The gas tax will happen that’s the easiest prediction for NJ.

  9. Marilyn says:

    Thank the Lord , the other prediction I made somehow did not get on here.

  10. Marilyn says:

    im kidding pumkin. That’s a insult to you. Seriously forgive me. You got to remember im brain damaged from years of drug abuse. Lets see how forgiving the liberals really are on here??

  11. joyce says:

    Every time you state how much you pay in property taxes you quote the total of your primary and rental property, Idiot.

    The Great Pumpkin says:
    December 6, 2015 at 9:55 am
    Don’t come back stating you don’t own it due to taxes. Taxes are the cost of society, you pay them whether you own or rent.

  12. joyce says:

    12
    You have a lot in common with Ottoman

  13. Comrade Nom Deplume, the anon-tidote says:

    Ironic when you consider that he probably never got lucky on the site.

    http://nypost.com/2015/12/06/ashley-madison-hack-steals-mans-job-wife-and-mind/

  14. Marilyn says:

    15. haha. I did not even get lucky on that site. I got a 300 pounder in Moldova.

  15. Marilyn says:

    Com, did you read that article. What a loser. And I looked up her salary 196K so between the both of them , your talking a nice life off the taxpayer for this guy to wack off to Ashley Madison at work. How pathetic.

  16. phoenix1 says:

    Marilyn,
    Harsh. Not that I would expect anything less from you based on earlier comments posted here.
    Also, the article states “work issued device”, not “while at work.”
    Big difference….

  17. Marilyn says:

    19. Thanks yes I am harsh he is a loser.

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